Gold To $5,400, Silver To $90 As World Enters ‘Wartime Economy’ | Nicky Shiels
Summary
Gold Bull Market: Guest expects gold to challenge $5,000 with central bank demand anchoring higher price floors and warns of overcrowding risk.
White Metals: Silver, platinum, and palladium remain in a bullish regime, with near-term headwinds from index rebalancing and medium-term support from macro reflation.
Autos and PGMs: A shift away from peak EV toward hybrids/ICE supports platinum group metals demand, reinforcing a higher price floor.
Resource Nationalism: Weaponization of commodities, export restrictions, and strategic stockpiling by major powers underpin higher and more volatile metal prices.
Central Bank Buying: Continued accumulation by non-Western central banks is a key driver for gold, providing persistent support through geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil Outlook: Despite geopolitical shocks, oil is caught between supportive macro flows and weak fundamentals/logistics, keeping prices subdued.
Copper and Tariffs: Tight supply, Section 232 uncertainty, and tariff risks lock up metal, while copper’s depth and usage keep it attractive amid reflation.
Transcript
It's not going to be a traditional war and sort of a hot traditional war that we sort of used to. It's more securing a sort of arms race or you will a sort of commodity race. 5,000 is the big psychological level in gold. I gold is the con is universally the consensus bullish call amongst equities amongst fixed income. So I think that is that's pretty worrying for me. If you're talking about the fact that we got US, China, and Russia trying to carve up the world, that that is extremely negative for growth. >> I'm back with Nikki Shield. She's the head of research and metal strategy at MKS Pump. Nikki was last in the show last year in 2025 uh in April, and since then, much has changed in the commodity space. She's made a number of correct calls. She's called for gold to go higher toward 3,700. Well, is blown way past that target. We're going to find out what's next for the metals and the global commodities complex with Nikki. Welcome back, Nikki. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, David. Thanks for having me back. >> So, congrats on calling the direction right. Uh although I think the move towards the end of the year, especially the white medals, silver and platinum, surprised a lot of people, probably yourself as well. We'll talk about that in just a minute. The fact that Trump, Donald Trump wants to is so blatantly obvious in what he wants with Venezuela Venezuela, which is to take the resources, export the oil, get the oil companies into the country to sell the oil. How is that going to affect not just oil, but the rest of the commodities? In fact, which of the commodities that you cover do you think will be most impacted by the takeover of the Trump administration of Venezuela? >> Uh, I mean, yeah, great question. And I think what it really speaks to is and we've spoken about the sort of like underlying strategic theme this whole year um which is the weaponization of commodities especially critical metals needed in the AR race critical metals or minerals including oil and I think uh the the the developments over the weekend just sort of signifies that um look I think what it does is it accelerates and it emboldens other countries to do the same to seize up. So I think we entering a period where you've got the three strong men right you've got the military powers US Russia and China simply going to carve up the world and what that is going to eject is a lot of panic a lot of fear and I think that's going to accelerate central bank buying in gold and so yes I think it it should definitely um overflow into some of the other metals precious metals um and strategic metals but first and foremost I think it's very underlying support of gold um for for energy look it's it's it's it's more of a negative. I think you got to unleash uh resources that weren't there in the market. Um so you sort of have this uh dichconomy between sort of lower energy prices and sort of a higher metal metal regime. >> People all over the internet are talking about preparing for a third world war. >> I don't know that's the case. >> But if the gold market certainly doesn't seem that seem to think that way because it's hovering still around 45 just below $4,500 an ounce. It hasn't really moved much higher. >> Yeah. >> Since the events of last week. Does is the gold market a good indicator, you think, Nikki, of geopolitical tensions? >> I think Yeah, I think generally it is. Um I think you you know you can look at a ton of different sort of fear proxies, you could look at uh you can look at defense stocks, you can look at uh gold. I think um you can look at flows in the market. I mean I think yeah the talk of World War II. I think it's not going to be a traditional war and sort of a hot traditional war that we sort of used to. It's more of securing a sort of arms race or you will a sort of commodity race. Um and you're seeing that especially in copper in silver where you've got sort of re these regional strategic uh stockpiling of metal and that becomes locked up and I think uh you know it it it accelerates higher pricing. It accelerates dislocations across a lot of these commodities, making it harder to trade, and it certainly accelerates the volatility. >> The fact that oil, interestingly, hasn't really moved much on this development. What does that signal to you? It's still hovering around $57 a barrel, WTI. >> Yeah, it's, you know, I think I think a lot of it is a sequencing of events, right? So, you'll get the knee-jerk reaction and then the market just needs to sort of try to factor in when exactly it is a pretty tough uh crew to refine. I'm not an oil specialist, but again, it's about the logistics and and and then figuring out when that does actually come to market, which is probably only 6 to 12 months time down the line. Um I think oil also is facing uh sort of these you know these these confluence of factors happening across commodities. On the one hand, you have a super super supportive macro regime. So that's that's reflation that's debasement that's looking for sort of like inflation hedges. Um on the other hand you look at global supply global stock piles and which which are still pretty uh you know they're they're decent amongst uh in energy space and in metals but and demand isn't that great. So um I think oil's kind of caught between that uh tail the tailwind of of sort of a very supportive macro backdrop where you're getting investor inflows but the the fundamentals are are pretty um pretty negative. >> The fact that this is happening on the backdrop of like you mentioned earlier the interview um this higher level of restrictions around the world for exporting certain critical minerals. For example, China all throughout last year 20 2025 has placed restrictions on exporting critical minerals like antimony critical for defense and ammunition production. And now recently over the new year they announced they're going to limit the export of silver which Elon Musk even tweeted about saying this is a bad thing. It's needed for many industrial processes. >> And interestingly again silver hasn't moved much in the news. So either the markets don't think that this is important for the overall supply of silver or they don't think this is going to stay. What is your take? >> All the markets knew you know the headline was coming because they seem to have moved beforehand. Um look I think there's um there is a lot of policy uh changes happening um whether it's on the sort of the critical metal tariff related um side of things or whether it's on the investment side. For example, India has just um announced um and and rejected their sort of pension scheme allowing um government pension schemes to allow uh to invest up to 1% in in gold and silver ETFs and up to 5% in private funds. And that's a game changer and we seeing you're seeing strong imports into India. You're seeing um yeah ETF uh uh silver ETF in uh aggregated holdings in India shooting up. So I think whether it's policy on the investment side or policy sort of more driven around uh government strategic um stockpiling or strategic securing of assets um there's there's certainly a net huge net tailwind um coming into coming into sort of just a critical metal just uh metals and minerals who have a usage and and ones which are scarce which is driving which in in turn is driving um sort of a lot of your sort of retail FOMO inflows in the space. >> We saw in the past year Trump, Putin, and Xiinping fighting a trade war over the key components of the global supply chain. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper. China restricted the exports of rare earth minerals in October and recently placed restrictions on silver exports. Last week, the world witnessed Trump's administration taking over Venezuela's oil industry. And importantly, when it comes to rare earth minerals, lithium, uranium, and rarely talked about mineral malibdinum, China commands major leverage over the West. China controls a commanding share of global capacity of lithium refining and processing. It processes 60 to 70% of the world's lithium chemicals including lithium carbonate and hydroxide. On copper, China imports about 60% of global copper ore and unrefined copper and produces more than 45% of the world's refined copper. Reuters also reported that according to the international copper study group, China consumes about 58% of the world's refined copper. As for malibdinum, China accounts for 42% to 45% of global output. Copper, gold, lithium, uranium, and malibdinum are five key minerals that today's sponsor, Vanguard Mining, ticker symbol UUFF on the US exchanges, has direct exposure to in its diversified portfolio, spanning a number of safe USfriendly jurisdictions. Malibdum might not make headlines every day, but it's indispensable. It strengthens steel, enables high temperature alloys, and is critical for pipelines, defense systems, aerospace, and energy infrastructure. Vanguard Mining projects are located in USfriendly regions, Canada, Paraguay, and Argentina. Critical for investors looking to diversify away from geopolitical risks. Their projects are divided between gold, uranium, lithium, and copper malibdinum. Their gold deposit is situated in British Columbia at the Brussels Creek project. They also have a gold copper palladium exploration project in the C loops mining district. Vanguard Mining's uranium project is substantial. They control over 90,000 hectares in Paraguay's Parana Basin, strategically located right next door to uranium energy corbs worldclass UT project for lithium. Vangar money reclaimed a 100% interest in the Pokeitos 1 lithium solar project in Argentina for no additional cost. do your own research today on this multiple minerals company. >> Right. Okay. So, what do you think will be the major drivers then of silver? Let's start with silver and platinum >> um and the white metals first into the rest of the year if not maybe if not the export restrictions we're just talking about. >> Yeah, I think no, I do I absolutely think I think it's a it's a macro investment driven um market we're in at the moment. Yes, industrial and the fundamentals do matter, but the inflows on whether it's retail, it's institutional or um sort of more your day traders and your speculators more than offsets the downturn which we're seeing on industrial on the on the jewelry sector. Um I do think both metals have run a little too much too fast. Um and I think when when you do get that turn right now, we've got index rebalancing that is starting today um for the next 5 days. silver about 15% of aggreate open interest is meant to be sold across um across futures which is which a huge amount um so I think that's a big test in the very very short term for silver and for gold um doesn't really doesn't affect PGMs as they're not in BCOM or or in most of these um the indices um so the the biggest threat to white metals is going to be the ultimate impact of um an accelerated aggressive US foreign policy and on global growth and already yes we so the first half of this year we do see sort of a reflation macro float up but we're now talking about a global recession that could be pretty steep um if you're talking about the fact that we've got US China and Russia trying to carve up the world um which leads which leaves a very squeezed Europe um and that that is extremely negative for growth which I think the uh certainly the commodity markets or certainly the metals markets are not pricing in. >> Is the automotive sector still a driver of platinum something that's went up gone up a lot last year? >> No, absolutely. Um I think it's been the the automotive sectors es especially a driver of rodeium and palladium platinum um somewhat as well. Um platinum has you know it's it's between jewelry industrial and auto. the big the big news over the last say month or so um on the platinum side there has been a real sort of dial back of the EV narrative we saw Ford took took a pretty large hit to the EV business um the EU has come back come out and watered down their 2035 ban of ICE vehicles so now we're talking about okay we're not going to get peak EV um perhaps and there's a shift back into hybrid uh vehicles which actually do use PGMs um and or ICE. And so I think that's that's been a big driver um into the sort of higher floor regime in PGMs and and why you see consumers sort of hedging further out the curve. >> Can we talk about your forecast then um for of these battles? Starting with let's say gold. The fact that gold has been hovering around $4,000 to $4,500 trading rangebound in that range for a few months now. Nikki, >> is it ready for a breakout in either direction just yet? I think, you know, 5,000 is the big psychological level in gold. I I do expect gold to to to take 5,000 um probably in the first half of this year of a high price of 5,400, which basically is a 30% yearon-year um gain. So, yes, really good solid bull gains expected again in in gold this year, but not outlandish like we saw last year. So, you know, last year I think was uh sort of a bit of wild ride, a bit of a cowboy year. Um but we do expect some very solid gains across um gold and and um the white metals as well. So yes, uh basically expect gold to to average 4500 this year. Um the big risk to gold which I think we do need to talk about and and you know people are sort of fearful of that um is overcrowding risk, right? I think I've gone through a ton of bank research reports including independent research houses and from a macro level gold is the con is universally the consensus bullish call amongst equities amongst fixed incomes. So I think that is that's pretty worrying for me. But as long as you get the central bank backs stop I think I think it it can continue as a sort of wealth diversifier and um it's a it's a secular play and it's in its early innings. You mentioned to me last year when we were on the show in April that uh the fact that the central banks have been buying gold in such large quantities that has contributed to the price rise it were increased up until that point it will contribute all the way up to $3,700. Now that we're blown way we've blown way past $3,700. Our central banks still a key driver do you think? >> Yes, absolutely. I they they're the ones keeping higher floors in gold. um just now you know chi China have released their numbers again it is this is this a full release or is this just the tip of the iceberg um but what you know the Venezuelan developments absolutely accelerates the need for sort of non-western a lot of your Asian um and sort of eastern European central banks to just continue reallocating to gold >> what happens when the Federal Reserve becomes a little bit more dovish than we expect we're operating now in a backdrop of unexpected geopolitical policies around the world. We don't know exactly what's going to happen, not just with South America, but all around the world and the ripple effects that this past week's events will have on the Middle East as well as China and Russia, for example. We don't know what the Federal Reserve is going to do in in response, if at all. We just know that the next Fed share will be >> much more dovish than Jerome Powell. How do these factors play into the price of gold? Well, it's certainly very bullish and supportive. The the question is how much has already priced in because I think the market really turned probably the last two months of uh last year and try and already sort of front running the expectation of a very doubbish Fed in in um in 2026 and you know the data sort of needs to come out and support that. um you need a kind of goldilock slowdown in terms of you know there's there's enough slowdown but not too much of a slowdown to cause a sort of fear of a a V-shaped recession. Um so yes, I think it's supportive. If they if they're more doubbish than expected, uh I do think it's relatively more bullish. Uh the white metals like silver and platinum should outperform. Um if you got relatively stable growth, I mean that's going to drive real rates lower. Um and I think um you know I think that that's the real outside outsiz risk there. >> Well let's take a look at the charts now Nikki. So over the last one year exactly gold is up 67% 65 and change and silver is up uh more than yeah more than 150%. Um 2026 same year we're not in terms of growth. Um and if not why? are not a replica um of 2025 gains. Um I do see silver reaching, you know, the big number I've seen silver is $100. I do see silver reaching 90 probably averaging 65. Um that high price is a is a 26% yearon-year increase. The high price, not just the average. So yes, again, you know, another year for like B strong bull market gains. Um and we're coming off a very high base, right? Um it like s silver can play both sides. I think the big risk to silver is obviously if gold stalls and there's a secular top in gold and then obviously if we get some sort of re real deep um um demand destruction through a recession um but you know from a uh strategic allocation I think uh investors are still pretty under underweight on silver >> any commodities that you cover that you are less bullish on Nikki >> not not in this environment I think you need to take a step back and you know we looked at white metals And it's um you know trying to explain what happened in December. It's it's really simple. You know we saw gold try 2000 multiple times. It finally broke through 2000. It was a big psychological break in in Q1 and 2024 and it hasn't looked back. This is just simply a precious metals rereading. Um and silver through 50, platinum through 2,000. Palladium is probably next to catch up. So, I'm relatively more bullish on on um on Palladium. Um and I do I just do I do think yes, they they may have overrun on a fundamental standpoint, but from a debasement perspective where we are and we're in a wartime economy. Um you've got highly indebted uh G10 nations. It's the you know the penny sort of dropping um on a short-term basis. Yes, you've had to pick one, you know, one to be pretty bearish. which I think silver I think given the the the re index rebalancing um it it's got a lot of headwinds to get through in the short term. So yes I prefer not to buy silver up here put it that way >> and that begs the interesting question as to what investors may do or should do. I mean, we're not here to give financial advice, but people have been asking me, even on a personal basis, hey, I've been out of the markets and I'm looking to get into the metals, but I I'm afraid I kind of missed the rally. And I think my answer is, I guess it depends on your time horizon. I don't know how you want to answer this question. >> Yeah, I think it depends on a lot of factors. Your risk appetite, um your so uh your time horizon, um but you know, I think to have some skin in the game. I think there's also various ways to play um precious metals or gaining exposure. Obviously, there's there's physical, there's levered um there's your equities. Um so I do, you know, I do think um just starting by having some skin in the game. Um you know, 1% is sort of bare minimum. Some of the the recommendations up to 5% um of a portfolio in precious metals. Um but there's there's various ways to get exposure. Um and I think yeah, I think being being savvy on draw downs, on dips. Look, I you know, you don't want to chase rallies after after silver and platinum have doubled. So, I think being a little savvy on dips um and and and sort of peacemealing into the market um I think is a smart way to do it. >> Let's take a look one more time or actually we haven't talked about this one last metal before we head off now. Copper >> also at new all-time highs and uh what's the story behind copper? Some have said uh Dr. copper as they call it has been a good leading indicator uh for economic growth signaling where growth is up ahead. Um those same very people have been kind of tepid in terms of their predictions on what economic growth may actually be. So I'm getting mixed signals here on what's been driving copper. What's your take? >> It's copper is twofold. Um it's a supply story, a shortened supply story like every metal um sort of a der of of of capex and uh uh into the space. Demand is a okay. It's not great. Demand is okay. When you're looking at China GDP sub 5%, US GDP sub3, like it's doing okay. The big story and the kicker to to copper comes in with tariff uncertainty and section 232 um which is affecting all the other uh uh white metals as well. Um so you you've got essentially metal locked up in the US um which awaiting sort of the outcome of of tariffs and and section 232 which basically that metal is not available for market. So again it it plays the macro lens where it's a reflation debasement trade um and then it's it's somewhat of a tighter a market and you've got the kicker from tariffs. So I you know copper is it's it's utilized more so than the others in sort of your your AI buildout in in in data centers. I think it's it is Dr. copper. It can play uh both metals well. And the attractive thing for copper is um it is a deep liquid asset like um like gold and oil. And so it does attract some of your um some more strategic u asset managers or pension funds to the space given it does have the depth that the other metals do not >> given that all these commodities we talked about are projected uh to at least maintain their current price levels if not go much higher like you said well doesn't that pretend higher inflation do you think globally Nikki are you concerned about that >> yes I think generally if obviously commodities are higher um it it will it will fuel or provide a tailwind to inflation which is concerning. Um but again I think you you got to drill down into commodities and if it's it if energy remains sort of lower for longer um I think that can sort of offset that uh the sort of a negative effect from from metals higher. So I think you I think you have this like high for longer metals regime and a low for longer energy regime which net nets um should should at least not provide too much of a a a um a scale on the on the inflation front. >> Perfect. Well, Nikki, I appreciate your time. Thanks very much. Where can we follow you? >> Yeah, appreciate it. Where can we follow you? Yes. >> Uh mkspamp.com is is our company uh website. Um and my my Twitter I'm dealing with that at the moment. So uh that that's all we have for now. All right, we'll put the link down below so you can follow MKS Pump there. Thank you once again, Nikki. Happy New Year once more and uh we'll see you again soon. Take care for now. >> Great. Thanks, David. Have a good one. >> Thank you. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Gold To $5,400, Silver To $90 As World Enters ‘Wartime Economy’ | Nicky Shiels
Summary
Transcript
It's not going to be a traditional war and sort of a hot traditional war that we sort of used to. It's more securing a sort of arms race or you will a sort of commodity race. 5,000 is the big psychological level in gold. I gold is the con is universally the consensus bullish call amongst equities amongst fixed income. So I think that is that's pretty worrying for me. If you're talking about the fact that we got US, China, and Russia trying to carve up the world, that that is extremely negative for growth. >> I'm back with Nikki Shield. She's the head of research and metal strategy at MKS Pump. Nikki was last in the show last year in 2025 uh in April, and since then, much has changed in the commodity space. She's made a number of correct calls. She's called for gold to go higher toward 3,700. Well, is blown way past that target. We're going to find out what's next for the metals and the global commodities complex with Nikki. Welcome back, Nikki. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, David. Thanks for having me back. >> So, congrats on calling the direction right. Uh although I think the move towards the end of the year, especially the white medals, silver and platinum, surprised a lot of people, probably yourself as well. We'll talk about that in just a minute. The fact that Trump, Donald Trump wants to is so blatantly obvious in what he wants with Venezuela Venezuela, which is to take the resources, export the oil, get the oil companies into the country to sell the oil. How is that going to affect not just oil, but the rest of the commodities? In fact, which of the commodities that you cover do you think will be most impacted by the takeover of the Trump administration of Venezuela? >> Uh, I mean, yeah, great question. And I think what it really speaks to is and we've spoken about the sort of like underlying strategic theme this whole year um which is the weaponization of commodities especially critical metals needed in the AR race critical metals or minerals including oil and I think uh the the the developments over the weekend just sort of signifies that um look I think what it does is it accelerates and it emboldens other countries to do the same to seize up. So I think we entering a period where you've got the three strong men right you've got the military powers US Russia and China simply going to carve up the world and what that is going to eject is a lot of panic a lot of fear and I think that's going to accelerate central bank buying in gold and so yes I think it it should definitely um overflow into some of the other metals precious metals um and strategic metals but first and foremost I think it's very underlying support of gold um for for energy look it's it's it's it's more of a negative. I think you got to unleash uh resources that weren't there in the market. Um so you sort of have this uh dichconomy between sort of lower energy prices and sort of a higher metal metal regime. >> People all over the internet are talking about preparing for a third world war. >> I don't know that's the case. >> But if the gold market certainly doesn't seem that seem to think that way because it's hovering still around 45 just below $4,500 an ounce. It hasn't really moved much higher. >> Yeah. >> Since the events of last week. Does is the gold market a good indicator, you think, Nikki, of geopolitical tensions? >> I think Yeah, I think generally it is. Um I think you you know you can look at a ton of different sort of fear proxies, you could look at uh you can look at defense stocks, you can look at uh gold. I think um you can look at flows in the market. I mean I think yeah the talk of World War II. I think it's not going to be a traditional war and sort of a hot traditional war that we sort of used to. It's more of securing a sort of arms race or you will a sort of commodity race. Um and you're seeing that especially in copper in silver where you've got sort of re these regional strategic uh stockpiling of metal and that becomes locked up and I think uh you know it it it accelerates higher pricing. It accelerates dislocations across a lot of these commodities, making it harder to trade, and it certainly accelerates the volatility. >> The fact that oil, interestingly, hasn't really moved much on this development. What does that signal to you? It's still hovering around $57 a barrel, WTI. >> Yeah, it's, you know, I think I think a lot of it is a sequencing of events, right? So, you'll get the knee-jerk reaction and then the market just needs to sort of try to factor in when exactly it is a pretty tough uh crew to refine. I'm not an oil specialist, but again, it's about the logistics and and and then figuring out when that does actually come to market, which is probably only 6 to 12 months time down the line. Um I think oil also is facing uh sort of these you know these these confluence of factors happening across commodities. On the one hand, you have a super super supportive macro regime. So that's that's reflation that's debasement that's looking for sort of like inflation hedges. Um on the other hand you look at global supply global stock piles and which which are still pretty uh you know they're they're decent amongst uh in energy space and in metals but and demand isn't that great. So um I think oil's kind of caught between that uh tail the tailwind of of sort of a very supportive macro backdrop where you're getting investor inflows but the the fundamentals are are pretty um pretty negative. >> The fact that this is happening on the backdrop of like you mentioned earlier the interview um this higher level of restrictions around the world for exporting certain critical minerals. For example, China all throughout last year 20 2025 has placed restrictions on exporting critical minerals like antimony critical for defense and ammunition production. And now recently over the new year they announced they're going to limit the export of silver which Elon Musk even tweeted about saying this is a bad thing. It's needed for many industrial processes. >> And interestingly again silver hasn't moved much in the news. So either the markets don't think that this is important for the overall supply of silver or they don't think this is going to stay. What is your take? >> All the markets knew you know the headline was coming because they seem to have moved beforehand. Um look I think there's um there is a lot of policy uh changes happening um whether it's on the sort of the critical metal tariff related um side of things or whether it's on the investment side. For example, India has just um announced um and and rejected their sort of pension scheme allowing um government pension schemes to allow uh to invest up to 1% in in gold and silver ETFs and up to 5% in private funds. And that's a game changer and we seeing you're seeing strong imports into India. You're seeing um yeah ETF uh uh silver ETF in uh aggregated holdings in India shooting up. So I think whether it's policy on the investment side or policy sort of more driven around uh government strategic um stockpiling or strategic securing of assets um there's there's certainly a net huge net tailwind um coming into coming into sort of just a critical metal just uh metals and minerals who have a usage and and ones which are scarce which is driving which in in turn is driving um sort of a lot of your sort of retail FOMO inflows in the space. >> We saw in the past year Trump, Putin, and Xiinping fighting a trade war over the key components of the global supply chain. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper. China restricted the exports of rare earth minerals in October and recently placed restrictions on silver exports. Last week, the world witnessed Trump's administration taking over Venezuela's oil industry. And importantly, when it comes to rare earth minerals, lithium, uranium, and rarely talked about mineral malibdinum, China commands major leverage over the West. China controls a commanding share of global capacity of lithium refining and processing. It processes 60 to 70% of the world's lithium chemicals including lithium carbonate and hydroxide. On copper, China imports about 60% of global copper ore and unrefined copper and produces more than 45% of the world's refined copper. Reuters also reported that according to the international copper study group, China consumes about 58% of the world's refined copper. As for malibdinum, China accounts for 42% to 45% of global output. Copper, gold, lithium, uranium, and malibdinum are five key minerals that today's sponsor, Vanguard Mining, ticker symbol UUFF on the US exchanges, has direct exposure to in its diversified portfolio, spanning a number of safe USfriendly jurisdictions. Malibdum might not make headlines every day, but it's indispensable. It strengthens steel, enables high temperature alloys, and is critical for pipelines, defense systems, aerospace, and energy infrastructure. Vanguard Mining projects are located in USfriendly regions, Canada, Paraguay, and Argentina. Critical for investors looking to diversify away from geopolitical risks. Their projects are divided between gold, uranium, lithium, and copper malibdinum. Their gold deposit is situated in British Columbia at the Brussels Creek project. They also have a gold copper palladium exploration project in the C loops mining district. Vanguard Mining's uranium project is substantial. They control over 90,000 hectares in Paraguay's Parana Basin, strategically located right next door to uranium energy corbs worldclass UT project for lithium. Vangar money reclaimed a 100% interest in the Pokeitos 1 lithium solar project in Argentina for no additional cost. do your own research today on this multiple minerals company. >> Right. Okay. So, what do you think will be the major drivers then of silver? Let's start with silver and platinum >> um and the white metals first into the rest of the year if not maybe if not the export restrictions we're just talking about. >> Yeah, I think no, I do I absolutely think I think it's a it's a macro investment driven um market we're in at the moment. Yes, industrial and the fundamentals do matter, but the inflows on whether it's retail, it's institutional or um sort of more your day traders and your speculators more than offsets the downturn which we're seeing on industrial on the on the jewelry sector. Um I do think both metals have run a little too much too fast. Um and I think when when you do get that turn right now, we've got index rebalancing that is starting today um for the next 5 days. silver about 15% of aggreate open interest is meant to be sold across um across futures which is which a huge amount um so I think that's a big test in the very very short term for silver and for gold um doesn't really doesn't affect PGMs as they're not in BCOM or or in most of these um the indices um so the the biggest threat to white metals is going to be the ultimate impact of um an accelerated aggressive US foreign policy and on global growth and already yes we so the first half of this year we do see sort of a reflation macro float up but we're now talking about a global recession that could be pretty steep um if you're talking about the fact that we've got US China and Russia trying to carve up the world um which leads which leaves a very squeezed Europe um and that that is extremely negative for growth which I think the uh certainly the commodity markets or certainly the metals markets are not pricing in. >> Is the automotive sector still a driver of platinum something that's went up gone up a lot last year? >> No, absolutely. Um I think it's been the the automotive sectors es especially a driver of rodeium and palladium platinum um somewhat as well. Um platinum has you know it's it's between jewelry industrial and auto. the big the big news over the last say month or so um on the platinum side there has been a real sort of dial back of the EV narrative we saw Ford took took a pretty large hit to the EV business um the EU has come back come out and watered down their 2035 ban of ICE vehicles so now we're talking about okay we're not going to get peak EV um perhaps and there's a shift back into hybrid uh vehicles which actually do use PGMs um and or ICE. And so I think that's that's been a big driver um into the sort of higher floor regime in PGMs and and why you see consumers sort of hedging further out the curve. >> Can we talk about your forecast then um for of these battles? Starting with let's say gold. The fact that gold has been hovering around $4,000 to $4,500 trading rangebound in that range for a few months now. Nikki, >> is it ready for a breakout in either direction just yet? I think, you know, 5,000 is the big psychological level in gold. I I do expect gold to to to take 5,000 um probably in the first half of this year of a high price of 5,400, which basically is a 30% yearon-year um gain. So, yes, really good solid bull gains expected again in in gold this year, but not outlandish like we saw last year. So, you know, last year I think was uh sort of a bit of wild ride, a bit of a cowboy year. Um but we do expect some very solid gains across um gold and and um the white metals as well. So yes, uh basically expect gold to to average 4500 this year. Um the big risk to gold which I think we do need to talk about and and you know people are sort of fearful of that um is overcrowding risk, right? I think I've gone through a ton of bank research reports including independent research houses and from a macro level gold is the con is universally the consensus bullish call amongst equities amongst fixed incomes. So I think that is that's pretty worrying for me. But as long as you get the central bank backs stop I think I think it it can continue as a sort of wealth diversifier and um it's a it's a secular play and it's in its early innings. You mentioned to me last year when we were on the show in April that uh the fact that the central banks have been buying gold in such large quantities that has contributed to the price rise it were increased up until that point it will contribute all the way up to $3,700. Now that we're blown way we've blown way past $3,700. Our central banks still a key driver do you think? >> Yes, absolutely. I they they're the ones keeping higher floors in gold. um just now you know chi China have released their numbers again it is this is this a full release or is this just the tip of the iceberg um but what you know the Venezuelan developments absolutely accelerates the need for sort of non-western a lot of your Asian um and sort of eastern European central banks to just continue reallocating to gold >> what happens when the Federal Reserve becomes a little bit more dovish than we expect we're operating now in a backdrop of unexpected geopolitical policies around the world. We don't know exactly what's going to happen, not just with South America, but all around the world and the ripple effects that this past week's events will have on the Middle East as well as China and Russia, for example. We don't know what the Federal Reserve is going to do in in response, if at all. We just know that the next Fed share will be >> much more dovish than Jerome Powell. How do these factors play into the price of gold? Well, it's certainly very bullish and supportive. The the question is how much has already priced in because I think the market really turned probably the last two months of uh last year and try and already sort of front running the expectation of a very doubbish Fed in in um in 2026 and you know the data sort of needs to come out and support that. um you need a kind of goldilock slowdown in terms of you know there's there's enough slowdown but not too much of a slowdown to cause a sort of fear of a a V-shaped recession. Um so yes, I think it's supportive. If they if they're more doubbish than expected, uh I do think it's relatively more bullish. Uh the white metals like silver and platinum should outperform. Um if you got relatively stable growth, I mean that's going to drive real rates lower. Um and I think um you know I think that that's the real outside outsiz risk there. >> Well let's take a look at the charts now Nikki. So over the last one year exactly gold is up 67% 65 and change and silver is up uh more than yeah more than 150%. Um 2026 same year we're not in terms of growth. Um and if not why? are not a replica um of 2025 gains. Um I do see silver reaching, you know, the big number I've seen silver is $100. I do see silver reaching 90 probably averaging 65. Um that high price is a is a 26% yearon-year increase. The high price, not just the average. So yes, again, you know, another year for like B strong bull market gains. Um and we're coming off a very high base, right? Um it like s silver can play both sides. I think the big risk to silver is obviously if gold stalls and there's a secular top in gold and then obviously if we get some sort of re real deep um um demand destruction through a recession um but you know from a uh strategic allocation I think uh investors are still pretty under underweight on silver >> any commodities that you cover that you are less bullish on Nikki >> not not in this environment I think you need to take a step back and you know we looked at white metals And it's um you know trying to explain what happened in December. It's it's really simple. You know we saw gold try 2000 multiple times. It finally broke through 2000. It was a big psychological break in in Q1 and 2024 and it hasn't looked back. This is just simply a precious metals rereading. Um and silver through 50, platinum through 2,000. Palladium is probably next to catch up. So, I'm relatively more bullish on on um on Palladium. Um and I do I just do I do think yes, they they may have overrun on a fundamental standpoint, but from a debasement perspective where we are and we're in a wartime economy. Um you've got highly indebted uh G10 nations. It's the you know the penny sort of dropping um on a short-term basis. Yes, you've had to pick one, you know, one to be pretty bearish. which I think silver I think given the the the re index rebalancing um it it's got a lot of headwinds to get through in the short term. So yes I prefer not to buy silver up here put it that way >> and that begs the interesting question as to what investors may do or should do. I mean, we're not here to give financial advice, but people have been asking me, even on a personal basis, hey, I've been out of the markets and I'm looking to get into the metals, but I I'm afraid I kind of missed the rally. And I think my answer is, I guess it depends on your time horizon. I don't know how you want to answer this question. >> Yeah, I think it depends on a lot of factors. Your risk appetite, um your so uh your time horizon, um but you know, I think to have some skin in the game. I think there's also various ways to play um precious metals or gaining exposure. Obviously, there's there's physical, there's levered um there's your equities. Um so I do, you know, I do think um just starting by having some skin in the game. Um you know, 1% is sort of bare minimum. Some of the the recommendations up to 5% um of a portfolio in precious metals. Um but there's there's various ways to get exposure. Um and I think yeah, I think being being savvy on draw downs, on dips. Look, I you know, you don't want to chase rallies after after silver and platinum have doubled. So, I think being a little savvy on dips um and and and sort of peacemealing into the market um I think is a smart way to do it. >> Let's take a look one more time or actually we haven't talked about this one last metal before we head off now. Copper >> also at new all-time highs and uh what's the story behind copper? Some have said uh Dr. copper as they call it has been a good leading indicator uh for economic growth signaling where growth is up ahead. Um those same very people have been kind of tepid in terms of their predictions on what economic growth may actually be. So I'm getting mixed signals here on what's been driving copper. What's your take? >> It's copper is twofold. Um it's a supply story, a shortened supply story like every metal um sort of a der of of of capex and uh uh into the space. Demand is a okay. It's not great. Demand is okay. When you're looking at China GDP sub 5%, US GDP sub3, like it's doing okay. The big story and the kicker to to copper comes in with tariff uncertainty and section 232 um which is affecting all the other uh uh white metals as well. Um so you you've got essentially metal locked up in the US um which awaiting sort of the outcome of of tariffs and and section 232 which basically that metal is not available for market. So again it it plays the macro lens where it's a reflation debasement trade um and then it's it's somewhat of a tighter a market and you've got the kicker from tariffs. So I you know copper is it's it's utilized more so than the others in sort of your your AI buildout in in in data centers. I think it's it is Dr. copper. It can play uh both metals well. And the attractive thing for copper is um it is a deep liquid asset like um like gold and oil. And so it does attract some of your um some more strategic u asset managers or pension funds to the space given it does have the depth that the other metals do not >> given that all these commodities we talked about are projected uh to at least maintain their current price levels if not go much higher like you said well doesn't that pretend higher inflation do you think globally Nikki are you concerned about that >> yes I think generally if obviously commodities are higher um it it will it will fuel or provide a tailwind to inflation which is concerning. Um but again I think you you got to drill down into commodities and if it's it if energy remains sort of lower for longer um I think that can sort of offset that uh the sort of a negative effect from from metals higher. So I think you I think you have this like high for longer metals regime and a low for longer energy regime which net nets um should should at least not provide too much of a a a um a scale on the on the inflation front. >> Perfect. Well, Nikki, I appreciate your time. Thanks very much. Where can we follow you? >> Yeah, appreciate it. Where can we follow you? Yes. >> Uh mkspamp.com is is our company uh website. Um and my my Twitter I'm dealing with that at the moment. So uh that that's all we have for now. All right, we'll put the link down below so you can follow MKS Pump there. Thank you once again, Nikki. Happy New Year once more and uh we'll see you again soon. Take care for now. >> Great. Thanks, David. Have a good one. >> Thank you. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.