Is The Stock Market Undergoing A 'Great Rotation'? | Michael Lebowitz

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So what we've seen is a rotation towards all of those out-of favor sectors, all the the value sectors, small cap, midcap, dividend stocks, con, you know, more conservative n basically non-mag7 stocks and and the the biggest question in my mind is is this the trend for the year? Is this the road map? Should we be buying the the midcaps, the small caps, the value stocks, the dividend stocks, getting out of some of the uh Nvidas, the Googles, the Metas, the the the the stocks that really got us the big gains over the last few years. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I am Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert, welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap. This time featuring uh the uh what sports, I guess we'll say, portfolio manager Michael Liowitz. Mike, how you doing? >> Doing great. Sportsastic. >> I just every time I I try to pull you in like for our conferences and stuff like that, you're always at some big sporting event. It's it's a passion of yours clearly. >> I guess I guess not today, though. I I saved the day for you, Adam. >> Well, thank you. Well, let let's be transparent about the day. So, Mike and I are actually recording on Thursday. Um so, whatever the market's due on Friday, we're not going to have uh be able to cover in today's discussion. And the reason why we're doing that, folks, u is just because um Raia, Lance and Mike's firm is having their annual conference in Houston today um which I'll be attending. Very excited to be there. Uh, in fact, it'll be going on live while people are watching this video when it debuts. Um, but we didn't want to leave you hanging, folks. We wanted you to the folks that aren't there in person in Houston, we wanted you to still have something to recap the week. So, that's why we're here recording now. Um, all right, Michael. Um, uh, I guess first, uh, do you do you recall the uh the hotel where the conference is going on? Just in case anyone's watching this in Houston and says, "Oh my gosh, I forgot it was today. I'm going to jump in my car and come on. >> Absolutely. It's the Hotel Sinesta. Um I think downtown, but if you go to our website, uh realvestmentadvice.com, uh there's a huge link to it. If you uh look at our, you know, recent articles, you'll see links. So, uh you know, there's plenty of links. Go check it out. And I think there's still a couple tickets, a few tickets available. So, if you uh well, I guess if you're seeing this, it's too late. But >> well, no, if you live in Houston, hop in your car. I'm sure if they come knocking, we'll let them in. >> You come knocking, we'll let you in. >> Okay, sounds great. All right. Well, look, um uh maybe let's let's start there. So, for the folks that that don't make the conference uh today, um can you give just sort of a a brief summary of of the key points you plan to talk about there? >> Absolutely. The uh the theme is we're going to talk about bonds because everyone always wants to hear about bonds for hours on end and on end. And I will give uh not only my projection of what I think for bonds, but I think what I've created is a a nice way for for people to say here's what I think thus this is where bond should go. And it it it it jobs with a lot of the stuff I've presented in the past, but I think it's really easy to use. Kind of a DIY kit. >> Is it kind of a choose your own adventure? Like I don't your own adventure. >> I might not share Michael's views on inflation or whatever, but if if for folks with my views on inflation, then it looks like bond should do X. >> Exactly. Exactly. So, it's a nice wrinkle to some of the other work we've done in the past. Then we'll talk about everyone's other favorite topic, the dollar and debasement. Uh, and um, I'm also going to do a little bit do a little bit on how money is created because I think that's very important. I think a lot of people don't understand that. >> So, it's my intention to bring some Monopoly money and actually play out a little dollar creation for you for for the attendees. >> Which reminds me, I got to remember to bring the Monopoly money. Um and then uh we'll end as you know I think any investment proposition uh not proposition but discussion evolves with the Fed and what's going on with the Fed and what we should expect with the Fed given that they control liquidity. I think it's, you know, it's ever since 2008, they have become the one one of the most important things to consider when thinking about which assets you want to buy or sell and where markets are going. >> All right. Um, well, if you don't mind, um, I might talk about kind of just some of your key takeaways from each of those. you know, folks aren't going to get all the detail that you're going to be sharing in the uh in the conference itself, but maybe, you know, one or two of the sort of seminal takeaways on each of those topics, bonds, dollar, and Fed. Um first though, um why don't we why don't we just make sure we deliver on what folks are hoping for from here, which is let's look at what the markets are up to. Let's get your latest on the technicals and everything. um you know last time uh last week with Lance um you know he kind of reiterated look lots of potential concerns about markets valuations still crazy you know in many ways um but uh we're not going to worry uh we meaning RA we're not going to worry until we until and unless we see technical signs of some sort of breakdown in process and as of last week looks like pretty clear sailing is best we can see so far in our models. What What's it like today? >> Yeah, I think that that generally holds true. Uh market traded a little weaker a day a day or two ago. I show you the graph and there's you know, you look at the graph and there's there's really nothing going on. It went down to its 20-day moving average. I printed this I I took this graph this morning. The market's up, I want to say the S&P's up 50 today, 45 as we're doing this kind of midday. Uh, so we're just, for lack of a better word, just trotting along. Uh, again, >> definitely definitely no signs of danger in in this. >> No signs of anything. No signs of anything. We're just in a very low volatility environment. uh which is you know when you're in a low volatile environment there's a lot of complacency and it does feel like to some degree a complacent market. Obviously valuations are very high and that that on its own should not you know shouldn't be complacent but nonetheless that's where we're at. Um now what I do think is interesting is if you think about the last couple years the S&P going up trending higher has been largely a function of the mag seven or you know more specifically about 10 to 15 stocks have really driven the market higher. plenty of stocks, hundreds were flat, slight gains or even losses over the last couple years despite significant gains in the S&P 500. And that's because seven stocks alone account for a third of the S&P 500. So, as we come into this year, we have a little bit of the opposite story. It it's it's interesting. We've seen kind of the S&P plotting along higher, but some of those big names have been underperforming decently. And what I in that yellow circle I I kind of highlight the last month or so and I have that orange bar that the uh orange line and that's the Russell, the small cap index. And what's interesting is you can see how the Russell has caught up. It's it's outperformed the S&P 500 over the last month, month and a half. So, what we've seen is a rotation towards all of those out of favor sectors, all the the value sectors, small cap, midcap, uh, dividend stocks, con, you know, more conservative n basically non-MAG7 stocks. Um, and that that that leads us to kind of where we're at today. And and the the biggest question in my mind is is this the trend for the year? Is this the road map? Should we be buying the the midcaps, the small caps, the value stocks, the dividend stocks, getting out of some of the uh Nvidas, the Googles, the Metas, the the the the stocks that really got us the big gains over the last few years, or is this just a rotation? And you get these little shortlived rotations from time to time from infavored to out of favored sectors and they can last for a month, two months and then it it reverts back and it might just be that once again 2026 is again the year of the mag 7 with many other sectors underperforming. So Adam, what I what I printed out here, what I show here, not printed out is our we do in our simplevisor platform, we have what we call absolute and relative analysis. And what this does is it looks at different stock sectors, factors or even stocks and it gives you a relative score and an absolute score. Both scores are based on technical analysis. The relative score is based on the price ratio of that sector or factor to the S&P 500. So it's relative is it if the the ratio is going up it means that the sector factor is outperforming the S&P and vice versa and we run a bunch of technical analysis on that ratio. The absolute is just technical analysis on the price itself of in this case we have factors on my page on the page. So and I what I really want you to focus in on is what I've circled. Those are the absolute scores and the scores can range from plus one to minus one. We we've uh we we've kind of sized them to that level. And right at the top is gold miners. Not surprising that they are extremely strong on their own just the price trend and versus the S&P 500. But our discussion today is really on those next 10 or so midcap 400. >> Sorry to interrupt it just because folks aren't going to be able to a lot of folks aren't going to be able to move beyond without getting this question answered. You said strong which can be interpreted as positive. Um but you clearly use red as the indicator as this score approaches one. So is that is that also meaning sort of like a you know extremely richly valued? Is that another way to say strong? >> That's a great conversation. This is a debate we have a lot. I it's it's really overbought. So the question is bullish and overbought are kind of one and the same. The question is when does it become too bullish? When does the price trend has it far exceeded its fair value? So we use red because it's overbought in our opinion. And the closer it gets to one, the brighter the red, the more overbought. And what we've typically seen is when you get a score above 080, it's very hard to sustain it. And it's likely that that score is going to fall. doesn't mean the stock's going to fall out of bed, but it it may just mean, you know, best case scenario is just a period of consolidation where the stock goes nowhere and the technicals, it kind of catches up. The moving averages, for instance, can catch up to the price. Um, but you can see here, you know, you have a couple midcap 400, the small caps, uh, have scores above 80, and there's a whole slew with, you know, kind of 60 and 70. That's very overbought. And it's all the sectors that were out of favor last year. Even the equal weight S&P 500 is in there. The small cap, the large the the uh midcap growth and value for both of those large cap value. Um scroll all the way to the bottom in my blue rectangle and what's the the two most they're not oversold because they are positive, but they're very close to fair value. meggaap growth and basically S&P 500. Um, now if you want to look to the right, those are the relative scores and you can see at the very bottom mega cap growth is getting decently oversold versus the S&P 500 and some of those other factors that we discussed earlier like small caps in particular are getting very overbought versus the S&P 500. So what I think this is telling you is that we are going to get a rotation probably back towards the the kind of S&P 500 and the mega caps. The question is, will it be a two to three week rotation to kind of get everything from being so overbought kind of a little bit back more to normal and then resume on this trend where those out of favor sectors and factors are leading the way or do the mega caps just start rolling on for the year like they did the last few years? And it'll be interesting to see if what we're looking at here is the road map for the year ahead or just an anomaly that's, you know, going to fade in short time. >> So, >> let me ask you this. So, so I mean without looking at any of this data, I I I could have said, hey, this year, Michael, we got three options. Um, you know, capital's going to rotate out of growth into all these other things, right? Um or it's going to be another year like the past couple years where where growth just you know is the dominant theme again. Um or it's going to be a sloshing between the two right um and and right now you know we have seen the some rotation into these smaller things. The question is is how sustainable is it going to be, right? H how are you going to be able to determine um what are you going to be look I guess looking for to determine which of those three cases you're going to say oh okay we now think this is the theme of the year and we're going to start making portfolio changes as a result. So, first of all, we have on the margin made some changes. I think in December we made some changes. We added a little more value, right? We added uh Altria, we added Verizon. Uh and I I think we're generally going to shift in that direction assuming that's what the markets are telling us. But we have plenty of tools, this being one of them, to show us how the markets are rotating, what's in favor, what's out of favor. What will be very interesting to me is this will correct. These scores will not stay this high. How will that happen? Will it just be a period of consolidation where where those those factors go nowhere? Maybe the S&P does a little better than them, maybe a little worse, but it just kind of a >> a boring market for a few weeks. Or maybe the MAG 7 just do much better. So, I want to see how this resolves itself, how much strength the Mag 7 can regain after being underperforming for the last month, month and a half. And take it as it comes. You know, there have been clearly some uh dings in the AI narrative over the last month or two. The debt has become an issue that some of these companies are taking on, the circular nature of funding. So uh you know the the the restraints of the power grid. So let's just see how the narrative progresses, how the performance keeps going on, the rotations, what's rotating, what the market's telling us. And you know, I think I'll have a much better answer for you come March. But I think this trend or counter trend, whatever it is, is just too, you know, we're in the first inning. It's just too hard to really tell you how it's going to turn out. >> Okay, let me ask you this. So, let's say you're back on here in March and let's say this has um these numbers have all changed and moderated because of consolidation. Um I mean obviously you can reserve the right to make whatever call you're going to make in March depending on all the other factors that are out there, but but all other things being equal, would that influence you to put more of your portfolio into, you know, these more sort of non-growth areas. >> I I think if if if they consolidate in a healthy way and the MAG7 doesn't just start running over everything, there's a case to be made that that some of these sectors may have some reason to invest in, you know, to shift the portfolio towards some of these sectors or factors. uh at that time. Uh now here's what's important, Adam, and why this is so striking. We've seen this throughout the last couple years where some of those factors and I'm showing factors, but we have the same exact screen for sectors where they've been outperforming both on a relative and absolute basis. But we have never really over the last couple years seen scores this high. And that's what's a little more striking this time than than the prior instances. Um, so that's why we're drawing it to your attention. I think it's a it's worth paying a little more attention to. Um, but yeah, I could see this is starting to feel a little different and with valuation so high, it makes logical sense. The other thing we've been hearing is this whole reflation trade. the economy is going to boom once again and corporate earning corporate earning expectations are very high right now for the year. So a and a lot of that is coming from those other 450 stocks. They think that the ear the Wall Street thinks that the earnings for the the non-mag 7, you know, the non-top 20 stocks will be vastly improved over what's been virtually flat growth for a couple years. So that that that narrative feeds into this as well. Um, interestingly, when you do this analysis on the sector side, materials and transportation stocks are at the they're at the very top in red. And that that brings up another issue. First of all, a lot of what I've said applies to them, too. They've been out of favor. If the, you know, economy is really going to start doing better, you would expect those to do better. materials are being boosted in part by pneumont by uh Freeport uh the McMoran the copper company >> uh but there's if you look at the correlation between bank reserves and different sectors and factors you find that materials and transportations have the highest correlation. So now you're asking well why why do bank reserves matter? The bank reserves matter because the Fed started QE about a month ago. QE feeds bank reserves. So if QE is being done to the right size and in time it will add to the Fed's balance sheet, it will add liquidity to the market and those two sectors have the highest correlation. So that's another factor is that QE is out there and if QE is really going to impact the markets because liquidity reserves will rise and with it liquidity some of these sectors will also benefit from that factors will benefit from that along with certain sectors and possibly crypto. And Mike is is is that is that similarly true if along with QE uh there are additional rate cuts? >> Even more true, right? They're adding liquidity to the to the equation. >> The the question is, yes, the Fed's doing QE, but there's a natural drain of reserves. As as a bank makes loans, their reserves are declining. Uh and that's what's been going on. Reserves have been declining. So the big question is, is the Fed Fed adding enough? Is 40 billion a month enough to to offset the decline? Secondly, even if it just offsets it and reserves kind of stay steady, that's not really adding to the market liquidity. It's just keeping a steady state. So, and and they're adding 40 billion a month. So, maybe it just takes a couple months and then that trend starts going higher. it it accumulates. So again, that's something to consider when you're looking at what sectors, what factors, what stocks you should be buying, selling, transitioning into, fading, whatever it may be. >> Okay. So, Mike, I'm seeing here just from your PowerPoint uh menu there that you actually got like seven more slides or eight more slides. So, let me let you go through those two and I keep you on this one. >> Okay. So, we've talked about silver before, and Lance gave me a great idea for an article. He basically said, "Isn't it funny how people in bubbles don't see other bubbles or they they they see other bubbles, they don't see their own bubble." Um, and I was kind of thinking of a cartoon. If I could draw cartoons, I would have just done that instead of writing an article. And the cartoon, and no offense, Adam, I know you like your silver. It it's a it's a person in a gold, silver, precious metals bubble pointing out all these other bubbles, bubbles floating around. But I'm not creative, so I uh you know, I have to resort to words and graphs. And um what I really thought about was and and I'm trying to help silver investors. And there's a narrative driving silver, driving gold. And what I want people to understand is first of all I think gold can go to 150 and I also think it can go to 30. I think it it's kind of >> you mean silver >> silver silver hopefully not gold. Uh we got we got issues then. Um but what I want what I want people in silver and gold to realize is that we've been ever since 2020 happened we've been in this environment of what I've called rolling microbubbles. these little bubbles that kind of come up, they capture the market's attention, they pop, but the ramifications, the implications are pretty small. This isn't the dot bubble, the financial crisis in 2008. Big what I would call macro bubbles that just kill the economy, hurt many sectors that were not, you know, it wasn't just financials in 2008. It just spread throughout throughout the market. So what I did was I I just kind of talk about these rolling bubbles that we've seen and sh you know I created a lot of grass and the purpose was to to really just make people aware that this has been what's going on that these narratives pop up. There is some truth to the narratives. There's a lot of nonsense to the narratives. Ultimately, bubbles pop themselves. They can't keep going higher. The narratives fade. And we find out when you look back that the narratives were stupid. They didn't make sense. So, I'm actually going to skip here. This is quote unquote the stages of a bubble. And basically, it's a market ramps up and then it comes down almost as quickly. And with it, sentiment, enthusiasm increase. And you get to the point where this is all new. It doesn't matter what happened to the past. This is different. This is different. And then it it collapses on itself. >> Yeah. The the point is a bubble is a is a psychological phenomenon, not a fundamental phenomenon. >> Not to say it can't be based in fundamental. So let's just think about silver. There's a good case to be made that demand for silver is increasing somewhat rapidly and the supply can't increase. The supply just can't keep up nearly as quickly. That's a fundamental reason to own silver. And maybe what that means is that the fair value of silver, which in 20 I'm I'm making up numbers here. in 2022 based on silver as an industrial metal was 25 maybe now it's 35 and that's increasing three bucks a year again I'm making up numbers I'm not an expert on industrial silver but there is a fundamental reason to own silver but from a psychological perspective has a price just far exceeded that because of narratives about debasement and and whatever else it is that's driving it. So, look at this graph. And now I'm going to share a bunch of other graphs and kind of these microbubbles. And what you're going to see is they all look very similar. So, let's just start with uh alternative crypto coins and uh NFTTS. Remember the NFTs were all the rage. Um altcoins, other cryptocurrencies were all going to be the next Bitcoin. cryptocurrency was going to rule the world. There was not going to be any more dollar. Um, and look at these graphs. They're all the same. The the look at Dogecoin up 26,000% and then down 92%. Basically, great gains and then erased all within about 18 months. uh board ape board ape yacht club which I don't even know who thought that was going to be a thing but it it was tremendous. Uh you remember the picture of the monkey with that spinning top thing on his head? That's what that >> there were a whole bunch of different monkeys you could buy. >> There were and I don't know which exactly one is the board the yacht club versus the other ones but uh you get the picture. I think the yacht club was creating these NFTts of the apes and that's what people were buying into. But anyway, so I'll let you go on. I I will actually let you just proceed without giving any commentary along the way. I just will say the the silver stackers who are watching this will react to this and say, "Yeah, but Mike, these things were just baseless fads, right? I mean, these these things had no practical value in the world." >> And I agree. I agree. >> But let's go on here. meme stocks. These are actually companies that exist that do have cash flows, do have revenues, do collect money from its clients. The the feeling with meme stocks was that these companies were on the verge of, you know, verge of bankruptcy more or less. They were being heavily shorted by Wall Street. Let's go out there and buy these things because there is value there. and um we'll make the shorts cover and and we'll suspend belief in their valuations because we think there's a way to corner the market here. And again, you know, same things up the elevator and then right back down. Uh you know, again, tremendous gains, tremendous losses, all in very short periods of time. Um, Bitcoin Treasuries, this is Micro Strategy on the right. And, uh, BKKT Holdings, that's a kimono maker in Japan that decided they were going to get into the crypto holding, the Bitcoin holding business. Look at that graph. That graph may be identical to the one I started with. And Micro Strategy isn't that far different. investors thought that because a company held Bitcoin, you should buy that company's value should be worth a lot more than just the Bitcoin they help for some reason. That was the narrative. >> Slapping.com under the end of the, you know, Subway sandwich company store, >> right? Pandemic winners. Remember in 2020, we were all wearing our masks everywhere and we were scared to go anywhere. Every meeting was on Zoom. If you wanted to go to the gym, you went to your daughter's room and rode the Pelaton, uh, Teddoc. There were Roku, all kinds of companies that have these same exact patterns where the world just assumed that 2020 was the new normal, that that we were never going to go to gyms, to movies, to social events, and we were going to do everything from our houses. And yeah, I mean again the gains are tremendous, the losses are equally uh tremendous and the time periods are are relatively short. Specs though, that was a great idea. Investing invest in something where they don't even know what they're going to buy and and what the thing that they think they're going to buy, they're valuing at the same value as a mature company that's been doing it for years. These were tools and narratives created by people creating spaxs and selling spaxs. Um, here's two of them. And there were quite a few others uh that look very similar. So, you know, they all have their own narratives, all of these memes. And it's incumbent upon an investor that's in what's some what may be a bubble, what may not be a bubble to understand the narrative. Is it is it true? Do I believe in the narrative? And even if it's true, does the price change warrant what the narrative is saying? Uh is there confirming other are the markets confirming this in other ways? So, here's an issue with the reflation trade, for instance. The economy is going to be booming. Reflation, you know, everything's going to it's going to be a great year. Why are oil why do oil prices keep coming down? Why are they trending lower? That's not what should happen in a in a stronger reflationary economic trade, you know. And you could say the same with gold and silver. If the dollar is really being debased, why are foreigners buying US bonds in US dollars? Why is real estate not going through the roof? You want to own hard assets. Real estate's a great one to own. So, so look for look to the other financial markets for evidence as well, but do your own work. And look, uh maybe silver really is worth what is it 90 today or whatever it is. And maybe it's on its way to 200. You know what what I want you to understand is why why is that the case? Do the narratives make sense and does the price justify those narratives? And maybe you come to the conclusion that the narratives are actually weak that that the that that you think the strength behind it is actually greater than the narrative. And then, you know, lastly, understand who's selling the narratives, right? The spacks were being sold by people creating them. The meme stocks, narratives were created by guys that bought those stocks before the meme came out, profited, and got out. Guys like Roaring Kitty, I think there's a Netflix uh documentary on how much money that guy made. So, with Gold and Silver, are you listening to the coin dealers? Because they're not going to tell you the truth. They're just if they thought silver was going to 400, why were they selling you silver at 90, right? And or the the the people writing precious metals newsletters, listen to everyone, bulls, bears, and just try to figure out what those narratives the value of those narratives are. >> Okay. So, Michael, this might surprise some viewers here, but I agree with you 100%, which is that um folks need to do their homework. um you know listen to as many different independent voices as they can in this space. Um be very um self-reflective of uh your beliefs um so that you know I if if if you are truly in a bubble you can maybe challenge some of the beliefs that are causing you to be blind to it otherwise willfully blind to it. Um so I agree with you in all that stuff. Um, is are silver and gold in a bubble? I don't know. Um, when I look at the historic price action of them, especially silver, I worry because um, this is the third and most extreme, you know, vertical um, meltup that we've seen in silver prices in the past 40 years. Um and the two prior ones uh ended with you know a calamitous collapse and then silver was dead money for a decade plus you know one or several decades thereafter. So you know it's it's it's very easy just technically to kind of look at it and say oh this is the third you know mania and it's going to end just like the first two right that being said there are a lot of um structural things going on in the in the system. So not not just not just the dollar debasement trade, you know, governments with fiat currencies are making more of them and, you know, they're losing their purchasing power versus real things. Um, particularly in the silver market, you know, there are there are shortages going on here. There are pe there are parties standing for delivery that never did before at at orders of magnitude they had never done before. Um, they're they're at such large amounts that, you know, it raises the question, are these major commercial buyers? are these sovereign entities out there that are doing this. So there there are there's a certain there's certainly things out there that can make one make the argument, hey, it's different this time, not just for a blind belief, but for things that we're seeing now. Again, are those sustainable? I don't know. Um and I think the big question that really nobody knows is what's the true value, right? So um there there may be a sustained repricing going on for the metals right now. Um maybe silver and gold just have been undervalued by the markets until recently and now they're catching up to their true value. Right? The question is where is that true value? Right? Is it is it 40 bucks an ounce for silver? Is it 80 bucks an ounce? Is it 200 bucks an ounce? We don't know. And that's why regardless of whether it's in a bubble or not, when you see price action this violent that happens, you know, over such a short period of time, that's where I tell people, you know, I kind of echo, you know, Lance and you, which is you want to do your position rebalancing, right? You you want to just do do just stick to the basics of wealth creation, right? And and I can understand the stacker who says, "Look, I they'll they'll pry my ounces out of my cold dead hands. I don't want to sell them because I think they're going to be worth a lot more in 10 or 20 or 30 years or whatever and I'm going to be around them to enjoy it or I'm going to pass them on to my kids and I want them to have it." Fine. Don't sell them. There are ways to hedge, right? So that if there is a price correction, if this if if if Michael might be if his thesis is right, which is that this is a bubble, um you have some substantial protection against that, right? And and if if it's not a bubble and it raises from 90 or 91, which is I just checked, it's where it is right now to 200, you're going to look back and say that hedge cost me almost nothing on a relative basis, and I slept a lot better at night. So I I agree with you that folks need to do that homework. They're going to come up with their own individual conclusions. Some are going to say it's a bubble, some are going to say it's not. I'm just saying be honest with yourself that you don't know for sure. And so in the midst of this, just use some of the timehonored, you know, best practices to protect yourself from potential downside risk here. >> And also be honest, are you a trader or are you a investor? So, if you think silver is going to 200 in the year 2036 or or 2031, are you going to just hold it? Right. If you told me that's what it's going to do, I'll just buy it today and not look at it, not hedge it, not do anything lose sleep from the girrations. Yeah. >> Right. or are you a trader and are you just jumping on a craze without really knowing what it's all about and buying into a narrative without having done much work but it sounds great. Uh so figure out what you are. The other point you really should make Adam too is that it is recently been deemed that silver is a critical mineral and Donald Trump has put a lot of uh emphasis on critical minerals. Right. Ukraine has some, Venezuela has some. We're really fighting China on that issue. So the question is, will the administration put up with higher prices of a mineral it deems critical? That that's just another factor out there. And then, you know, I think we talked about this a month or so ago or a few weeks ago, the pri the you mentioned there were two prior bubbles that looked very similar. Both of those were squashed by the exchanges changing margin rates on futures. So there is >> which they are in process of doing right now. Yeah, >> they they've done it a few times already. There, you know, the question is when does or does President Trump call the exchange and say we need silver back down to 30 bucks? Um it's a threat. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but it's something you should be aware of because given how violent silver was, it's it could correct overnight. You may not even have a chance to trade it. So, if you're going to hedge, if you're going to just take some profits, not sell the whole thing, but take profits, think about doing it now because volatility goes both ways. So, I'm I'm off my silver horse. We're done. >> Okay. Yeah, I know. And and look, this is an emotional topic for um you know, a lot of the people watching this, not unlike how Bitcoin and crypto is for the folks that are invested in Bitcoin. Um and um you know, I'm sure you're going to get a little bit of blowback because to some people it's a religion. And I would say, hey, if you're one of those people, if you treat it like a religion, that's a pretty good sign you've got some blinders on, uh and you should be actually taking Michael's advice on on just doing the math and doing the self-reflection. Um, >> and Adam, Adam, just for the record, I have physical silver and physical gold. All right. And I've held it for 2003, 2005, something like that. And I'm not selling it. It's just there. I probably give it to my kids at some point. So, you know, I just want you to be fully aware of my personal situation. >> Right. You're you're you're not anti-precious metals. No, not at all. Yeah. >> Right. I I just, you know, I'm a student of financial markets and I've, you know, I showed you how a bunch of them played out in the last few years and I I know historically that price often gets well ahead of trend of fundamental trend. That's a common place in in the uh financial markets. I think we're seeing it in AI too. AI technology is incredible, but financial capital is so impatient. It wants to price in tomorrow, today, and it often gets ahead of itself. So, um, you know, just be careful. >> Yeah. And and, uh, two things. One, folks, if you're watching this and you're you're saying, "Hey, this actually sounds like prudent advice. I don't really know how to think through this stuff on my own, though." Well, then feel free to talk to one of the financial ad if you don't already talk to your financial adviser about it. If you don't have one, feel free to talk to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money endorses. Can be Mike, can be uh Lance, can be any any of the folks you see with me on this channel uh week in and week out. Um but but but tap the expertise of a professional who who a has frameworks for analysis, but also just has experience in taking the emotion out of the decision-m. Um, and look, you know, we I'm sure we've got people here that are watching that are saying, "Guys, you don't get it. It's a whole new world. Silver's being repriced. The world's realizing how how scarce it is. Everybody's scrambling for what remains." You know, 200 and beyond's coming up really soon. I can't disprove that. And as as a person who owns gold and silver, I'm kind of hope you're right. Like, I'd personally really benefit from it. Um, but the job here of this channel is to help people build wealth over time. And uh, you got to play offense and defense. And um, you know, again, the thing that kind of worries me the most about what's going on with the precious metals is just how far and how fast they've moved because vertical moves don't last. They just don't. Um, I'm hoping that when it cools off, it goes sideways. That's kind of the best case scenario. But I'm totally open to the fact that it could correct by 50% or more like the past two vertical moves that these metals made. So I I don't know. I'm just again I'm I'm putting in some of those defensive maneuvers just in case. So anyways, highly recommend that at a minimum you do the thinking that Michael is talking about. Go read his his recent reports on this um or go talk to your professional financial adviser. >> And Adam, you brought up something very interesting there when you were kind of talking about a financial adviser. I'm in my I'm under 60. Uh you upper mid upper 50s. >> I was gonna say we're getting closer every day, but you're still under. Yeah, >> we are. I still got time. Um but I would have loved to have been in this situation with you when I was say 35 and assess what's going on in silver and had you asked me, you know, some of these questions and ask my views to see how I would have thought about it then versus now. you know, uh, you know, over the last 20, 25 years, you learn about markets. You know, we've seen a lot of stuff. The financial crisis, the pandemic, the 10 years of zero interest rates and negative rates and seen all crazy stuff. You read more about history and things that have happened in the past and you just learn more. You you you I don't know if it's wise enough, but you certainly gain more knowledge. So, you know, depending on others that do have broader histories of having been through vol periods of significant volatility, I think is helpful just to get their opinions, their views. Doesn't mean they're going to be right. I'm not telling you I'm going to be right. I have I don't just like you. Silver could go to 200. It could go to 30. I'm not telling you which one's coming first. Um, but you know, having that background I think is very helpful and learning from others that do have the background. >> Okay. And I suspect, you tell me, but I suspect you'd probably be a lot more cautionary now in your later 50s than you were at 35 in terms of just saying, "Hey, you know, when when the market presents you with really good gains, >> realize at least some of them." >> I think the old me would have traded it. This me is just kind of watching, enjoying the the spectacle. >> The old me would have tried to get long it, get short it, whatever I would have done. Uh whereas now I think I'm just mature enough to just watch. >> Right. Well, look, my concluding part on this is um I don't I don't think my comments are too surprising to folks here um because we talk about precious metals on this channel a lot and I generally am quite pro them. um uh you know I I in no in no way take anything I'm saying as as being anti- them um or let me put it this way as as much as I personally you know may like the precious metals um and may probably own a greater percentage of my net worth in them as I probably should have right now. Um, what I like even more is the people watching this channel um, building wealth in a sustainable and and as um, you know, riskmanaged a way as possible. And so, you know, it would be irresponsible of me to, you know, just sort of cheerlead this thing up until the point at which it either plateaus or or or reverses. Um, I just want to make sure that, you know, everybody who is invested in this is doing so eyes wide open and leveraging the best practices that you guys help, you know, tell folks every week, uh, the best practices for wealth building because those are the ones that are going to best serve you over time. You might get lucky. It'd be great if you do. It's better to be lucky than anything else, but you could get unlucky, too. And that really sucks, >> right? There you go. >> Yeah. All right. Um, so Michael, um, we're we're going to keep it a little bit short today just because we we got to, you know, get ready for our flights and everything. Um, just on the three things that you're going to be talking about at the conference, can you just kind of give the punchline um for folks? So, um, I think it was bonds, US dollar, and the Fed. Um, let's talk with bonds. And I guess in your answer too, I want to ask you a question I asked last week, which is, um, you you've already kind of nodded to it a few times. Um there's an increasing number of voices that are saying, you know, GDP growth may surprise to the upside next year. Um and you've got folks from the administration like Treasury Secretary Bent or Commerce Secretary uh Lutnik who are saying, "Hey, I you know, we think 5%'s baked in the cake and we can see the potential for 6% GDP growth." um what would that do to your outlook for bonds if if if the economy was actually that strong? >> So, you know, there are people saying that, but just go look at the uh financial markets where people are putting money to work. And if you look at inflation swaps, if you look at inflation expectations, they're not telling you they're concerned about inflation. They they've been coming down. If you look at trueflation, which measures I forgot the number, it's a a massive inventory of prices, it's been >> it's over a million data points there. It's a lot. Yeah, >> it it's it's very robust. Much more robust than CPI, PPI. It's been coming down. I believe they're at 1.7 something%. >> So, >> although I'm curious, I mean, how correlated is economic growth with inflation? Do do you have to >> Right. And that's kind of where I'm getting at. Not necessarily. If, you know, it's supply and demand. If supply is keeping up with demand, then it's inflationary just stays the same. It's a function of supply and demand. Um, you know, I I I said something about be careful listening to coin dealers and newsletters when we were talking about silver. Well, Bessant and Lutnik or whoever else you mentioned, they're cheerleaders also, right? >> They have to be. Yeah. No, I get it. >> That's their job. They're not going to tell you they think the economy is going to suck this year. They'll never tell you that. Even if we're in a depression, >> they they will never tell you that. That said, there is something about sticking your neck out and picking a number because you can be wrong and people can point back to you afterwards and say, "You were totally way off. We only grew at 2 and a half%. You suck." >> Right. Right. Right. But look, the Atlanta Fed GDP right now is telling us that fourth quarter GDP was 5%. yet we've seen inflation figures start to turn lower. So the point is if you want to know where bonds are going to be, you need to know where inflation is going to be. That's three quarters of the puzzle. The other quarter of the puzzle or so is really just the what we've talked about before the term premium or sentiment, >> right? >> So you know if I tell you where inflation is, you can create a model and say, well bond should be here. Well, the real answer is it's there plus or minus something because investors are scared or investors are buying and you know whatever the case may be. So, you know, I think inflation at least given what we know now is starting to finally break that. We've been kind of stuck. I think in large part because of the tariffs. They added some goods inflation. Nothing killing us, but they it just kind of kept inflation steady. you know, just under or at 3%. So, I think we're finally starting to see that damn break a little bit and we just see a slow grind towards the Fed's target of 2%. >> So, so you so you see 2026 as a year of disinflation. That's your default, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Potentially slow. If we get into a recession, it speeds up quickly. >> Well, yeah. Obviously, >> if we have kind of 3%ish growth, it just works its way slowly uh slowly down. >> Well, and and and let me ask you this. So, how much of that is I think if Lance were here, he would say, well, a huge part of that is just math. It's just looking at what's happening in shelter and because that's 40% of the CPI calculation, you know, and it's a very lagging data uh set in the calculation itself. So, as you know, as the past year's worth of data starts getting into the system, which has all been disinflating, uh, continues, it's just going to pull 40% of the index down just by math next year. And then to your point, as long as oil prices stay where they are, or maybe even go down further, you know, maybe maybe we free up more oil in the world market with Venezuela, whatever. Who knows, right? But but if oil stays where it is and goes down, that's also another disinflationary factor. in there. So those two things alone are pretty big. Is is that the thesis of your deflation? >> Tariffs artificially cause prices to increase. Those prices now are going to be the same, >> right? Because it's it's a one time price shock, >> right? >> So So you're turning, you know, say this widget went up 10% because of a tariff. >> That 10% is going to turn into a 0% because the widget already reflects the price. says, "So you're comparing it to what it was last month or last year." >> So I think all that is going going to result in just a slow grind lower in inflation. >> Okay. And and but economic slowing an economic slowdown is not a big part of your expectation there. I I don't >> No. No. I mean, if we go into recession, Yeah. we're going to get to 2% much quicker. >> Yeah. But but I don't get a sense that's your default projection for 2026 that we're entering at least certainly not for the next 6 months. I am concerned that the labor market is stagnating. So, we're adding roughly 50,000 jobs a month, but the employment uh the population of potential employees is about 120 throwing 125,000. So, we're slipping. Uh we know that sentiment regarding the labor market is pretty poor. People don't feel com confident in their current jobs. they don't feel they can get new jobs. You know, we see that in some of the Jolts data as well, certainly the surveys. >> Yeah. >> And so one of my concerns is we just got through the holiday season. People will spend money even if they don't have it to buy gifts, but what's going to happen now in January, February, people going to get very frugal because their sentiment is poor or will they just keep spending? And yeah, >> I I I think come April, May, we'll know a little bit more about the economy. >> Well, let me ask you this. So, obviously a big thing by then will be the impact of tax refunds, which the administration is saying will be the biggest in history, >> right? So, I I guess where I'm going with part of this is is >> I mean, I've been I've been pessimistic on the economy's prospects for a while. I've been super pessimistic on the jobs market. Um, that said, I I I I am increasingly becoming of the opinion that you kind of discount everything the administration's been doing um at at your danger. Um, and I'm not saying it's going to be successful, but I'm just saying you turn these cranks, you pull these levers that they've been pulling really hard for the past year and will be into this year, it's going to be stimulated to the economy, right? I mean, if we do have the biggest tax refunds in history, people are going to go out and spend that, right? So, you just you you can't ignore that. And um so I I I wonder if I'm beginning to think that especially now that Trump has, you know, started taking actions like, all right, we're going to buy 200 billion of mortgage back securities, right? Like I'm all of a sudden beginning to realize, wow, I think the administration's going to do whatever it thinks it's going to take to just goose the economy as much as it can, make people feel as positive about their economic prospects, their job prospects by November so that the the midterms hopefully don't go against the current administration. Will they be successful? I don't know. I can certainly argue against um but uh I think you ignore all of those actions at your danger here. >> Yeah. drop your politics at the door and we've already seen it in just the first few weeks of this year some of the the things that Trump has been pushing. So, I agree with you. We're going to get, you know, I think it's been estimated that on average the average tax uh payer will get a,000 to 2,000 more of a refund or a refund than they would have. Um, >> and they might even get they might even get tariff checks on top of that. I mean, it's something that they've talked about. But that would be additionally stimulative if they did that as well. >> Right. Right. I mean, look, the incentive is on Donald Trump to get the e to get it's not even the economy to get consumer sentiment as strong as possible going into the election so that in his words he doesn't get impeached uh if the Democrats take over the house. Uh, and if the Democrats take the House, it's going to be very difficult for him to get through a lot of whatever else he wants to get through in his next two years. >> So, follow the in, this is kind of a theme, follow the incentives. Who's incented? And what can they do about it? And his incentive is to have a strong economy. Well, and this is why I'm increasingly getting to the the mindset, and you don't have to share this, but I think you might, which is just, hey, all those sort of macro concerns about the economy, the jobs market, etc., those they're not getting removed necessarily, but the administration may be buying itself additional runway through a lot of this stuff. And so therefore, you know, I'm I'm open to the idea of pushing out the potential deadline of these things. Absolutely. I agree with you and I I I think I think the economy will be stronger because of these things. Now whether stronger means it's plus 1% instead of minus 2% or is it 5% instead of the kind of more natural growth rate of 2%. That's the unknown. But it will be stronger than it otherwise would have been. The question is by how much and >> right and the political question is is it by enough to make a difference in what people are going to choose when they go in to vote. Well, and and what makes this really hard is like you said, this is all politically driven. So, we don't know what's coming. It's hard to guess at what he may do in April, May, or June to boost sentiment or the economy. It's not like kind of more traditional economic forecasting that you can look at where things are heading and correlations and and have a better appreciation. This is kind of the wild west of economic forecasting. >> Okay. Um, you know what? I think I I I took this a little bit um away from getting to your answer to my question, which is where do you what's your punch line on bonds? But I'm guessing because you see slow disinflation throughout the year, you're expecting mild appreciation in bonds. >> Yeah, mild. Yeah, mild appreciation, I guess, would be the way to say it. you know the the benefit of lower inflation will help. My concern is that sentiment right about a year ago we were talking in the bond vigilantes had all the power in the world their narrative was extremely strong right they were telling you the government can't keep spending the way it's spending that auctions every time there was a bad treasury auction it was the end of the world it was making headlines and everything you know anything that had something to do with bonds that was negative had a negative impact on bond prices, right? And we get through the year, inflation kind of stayed the same. It didn't come down. Deficits didn't really get Doge didn't have much of an effect. Deficits are still pretty bad, but that sentiment has faded. Bond yields fell roughly half a percent or so. That narrative has faded. So when I'm looking ahead towards this year, what's going to it's not just inflation, but will that narrative return? Is there right if Trump starts writing checks to the public, is that going to get the bond vigilantes back on their horses and push that term premium up higher? Or might the markets kind of run into trouble and might there be a flight to quality flight to US treasuries? might corporate default might corporate bond spreads start to wind out a little bit, push money into treasuries and cause that sentiment to the term premium to shrink or even become a discount that we've seen plenty of times in the past. So those are your kind of two uh two factors that you need to think about. And I generally think to your point I think inflation will fall. So that's a benefit. I'm a little more unsure about the term premium in part because it's the election and I don't know what Trump's going to throw at the market and how the market will react. >> All right. Um, okay. So, real quick, US dollar and the Fed. What are your key punchlines on those two? >> Uh, primarily I'll be talking about dollar debasement and kind of going through some of the the money supply is rising myths. Yeah, the money monopoly money exercise and then you'll tell everybody to buy gold and silver. Got it. >> Yeah, exactly. Trade your monopoly money for silver. Uh yeah, and then the Fed will talk about uh Powell's leaving or is he leaving? you know, some of the ramifications on Kevin Hassid, Kevin Marsh, or whoever else it may be because again, the Fed has put itself in the the position of being the liquidity provider to the markets that happened in 2008. So, when you think about what ultimately drives markets and I think you've had uh uh what's his name on how is that his name? >> Um >> Michael How the liquidity guy. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. and he'll be the first to tell you liquidity is really what drives markets in the in the short run, right? >> And so >> just FYI, he believes we just peaked out in Q4 in this this current cycle. Just FY, >> right? And and he's looking at global liquidity, too. >> Um, right. And >> heavily influenced by what happens in the US. But yes, >> by the way, his measures are a lot more elaborate than my measures. So, so listen to him on liquidity. But the point is the Fed can create liquidity. they they provide liquidity. So if you really understand what the Fed is doing, what they may do, that's vitally important. So that's why I think it matters whether it's Kevin Hassid or Kevin Walsh or someone else. It matters the DOJ investigating Powell. It if it affects monetary policy, it affects stocks and bonds and gold and silver and every other asset. >> Okay. Um let me just ask you this. Uh, look, Trump um uses chaos and unpredictability to his advantage. That that's just how he works. And and he's actually very quite transparent about this. You know, he talks about kind of his his opening salvo in any negotiation is to open the door to the negotiating room where everybody is, toss in a grenade, close the door, wait for it to go off, and then walk in. Right? I mean, he just he just prefers to have everybody, you know, discombobulated and not sure what he's going to do next, right? >> He loves I was going to say trial balloons, but he loves trial zeppelins. >> Yeah, exactly. Uh that are filled with helium that can explode. Um uh so you know I I I have learned not to be surprised by Trump doing something that I don't understand why he's doing it. But I really don't understand why they're doing this right now with Pal in the sense that like the clock is almost run out. Like you want the guy out of there, he's going to be out of there in a couple of months, right? Like like why why this sort of higher risk, you know, maneuver uh now? I mean, okay, I could have gotten it a year ago if you decided I want that guy out of there and and have somebody in his seat for a year and a half or whatever before, you know, we have a new Fed chair, but right now in the last seconds of the game, why why even bother? >> I don't know. I honestly don't know. I I don't understand. The charges don't really make sense because the plans to to develop the Fed building were done before Powell was there. Um, you know, there's so much waste in the government. if you're going to start prosecuting Powell, there's a lot of other people that need to be prosecuted. Um, so I >> I mean, maybe it's just a signal that whoever's the next Fed chair, they know, look, if I get on the wrong side of the president, he might come after me with a lot, you know, but I don't know. >> Do you want to be a Fed chair? I mean, Powell was appointed by Trump. >> Do you want to be a Fed chair? >> You know, I don't know. It it doesn't make sense to me. you know, he claims he didn't know. I I don't know if I believe that or not, but um regardless, it just complicates getting the next nominee into that seat. And then it raises a question of Powell probably would have resigned. So, he's still the he's still a Fed governor until I believe it's 2028 and a voting member, more importantly, a voting member of the FOMC. So my guess is that had just everything just been allowed to just mature as it should have, he would have resigned in May and that would have been it. Now there's a chance that out of spite he stays on till 2028. And you know, not that I think Powell will vote against will will kind of create interest policy to go against Trump, but I think it does stop Trump from putting in someone more dovish in that seat. Yep. All right. Well, I don't know. Well, as the dust clears, maybe we'll talk more about it. But that's just one thing I've really been scratching my head on. All right. So, we're starting to wrap up here. Um trades. What trades, if any, have you and Lance made over the past week? >> Nothing. We've sat on our hands all week. >> Okay. You just wait and see. >> Wait and see. Want to want to see you this weekend and get your opinions on everything, Adam, and then Okay. >> We'll figure out what to do. >> All right. Um, well, look, in wrapping up here, I don't have a rant uh planned for the day, so I'll get you out in just a couple minutes, folks. Um, I guess the one thing I just I'll comment on uh is so I've talked in the past uh Michael with Lance about um the fact that uh I recently got a a couple months ago um enlisted the services of a concierge doctor and it's been great and I've talked about you know the details uh on this channel before so I won't repeat them all again here. Um, but it really is great and it's not that expensive. I highly recommend anybody who's thinking about this, who's particularly our age, uh, do this. And what my doctor's been having me do is just go down through the list of the things that are statistically most likely to kill a guy my age, right? And fortunately, as we've been going down the list, you know, checking the heart, checking for cancers, checking for other things. You we've been getting good results, which is great. Um, last big thing I have ahead of me is my colonoscopy, and I'm not looking forward to that. It's my first one ever. I'll I'll share the results uh once that's done. That'll be an early Feb. Um but one of the things I recently had was um a a full dermatological exam. >> And the short end is is um I got blind colors which was great. Totally ironic because my wife who has taken phenomenal care of her skin since you know birth basically she's already had to um you know melanomas removed. Um and the guy who doesn't really think about it at all doesn't ever basically wear sunscreen and you know all that stuff he's I'm doing fine. Um, now there were a couple of precancerous uh things on my face that they found and a week or two ago I let folks know about that cuz they they put the freeze spray on it and you could see when I was on camera that it looked like I'd gotten a couple scratches or something on my face. Um, anyways, those, you know, healed up right away. It was all great. The reason why I'm mentioning all this is in addition to the health benefits of of doing the dermatological exam and the peace of mind benefits of, you know, either getting a good bill of health or at least knowing what you got to work on. Um, when she was sort of spraying my face, I said, you know, I've got I've got this mole up here, you know, kind of came on about, I don't know, two or three years ago. It's just sort of an age spot, I guess. And she said, yeah, I looked at it and I can't remember what kind of a skin thing it was, but she was like, it's benign. you know, those things just you're just they just hang around forever. I said, "Well, can you do anything about it?" And she said, "Well, yeah, I can I can try to, you know, freeze it off here. Um, I can't guarantee it'll go away. Um, maybe it'll go away. It'll come back, but you know, you want me to try it?" And I'm like, "Yeah, absolutely." So, she, you know, sprayed it for all of two or three seconds, right? And, uh, it's gone. So, you know, you get this thing that was, you know, kind of low-grade, just bugging me. Just a a visible reminder of my aging, and I didn't love that it was on my face, but it's it's more or less gone at this point. >> I was wondering why you look so much better. >> Yeah, there you go. Exactly. But yeah, folks folks may remember, you go back to old videos, you'll see I had a a pretty noticeable spot right there that's now gone. So, anyways, lots of reasons to go get your dermatological exam, folks, whether it's, you know, for your health or for your vanity. So, can I u one request from you, Adam? >> Yeah. >> I've tried to watch the Neil How video twice and I've watched the first five minutes both times and then I got caught. Something else happened and I had to put it on pause. Um when you guys do your hike in the Cascades, can I join you guys? >> Absolutely. Absolutely. That would be a lot of fun. >> Great. And uh yeah, I mean to be honest um you know when he said that I sort of jokingly said, "Oh, we should do it together and then we should let folks know." But I've had a couple other folks like you raise our hands and say, "Hey, if you guys do that, I'm in." So, uh yeah, absolutely. There'll be a space for you. And folks, if there's enough interest there in the comment section, maybe we'll take this throwaway joke and make it a real thing. >> Deal. >> I thought you were going to say you tried to watch it twice, but you just got so distracted by that mole on my forehead that you just couldn't couldn't pay attention. >> That too. That that's always been irking me. I'm glad you took care of that. >> All right, folks. Well, look, if in addition to uh you know, working on your health, you think the next best uh thing to do to improve your quality of life is to continue watching Mike and Lance on this channel week after week. Please let them know that by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um, if you would like to get some help from a good professional financial advisor um, who you know can help you look at your financial situation and um, help you come up with a strategy and plan for 2026. If you don't already have a good financial adviser uh, that you're working with, feel free to talk to one of the ones that thoughtful money endorses. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. Perhaps you'd like to even talk to Mike and Lance themselves at RAA. to do that, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com and the firms will be in touch with you immediately after you do that. Um, all right, Mike. Well, look, looking forward to seeing you tomorrow. Thanks so much for doing this on short notice and, um, uh, it's always nice to get that Lance guy out of the chair and get you in here. Um, but anyways, thanks again for doing this and like I said, uh, look forward to, uh, joining you for the happy hour tomorrow. >> My pleasure. Good seeing you, Adam. >> You, too, buddy. Everybody else, thanks so much for watching.