On episode 225 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick …
Transcript
You were so early to the commodity rally, >> dude. I said gold 5,000. People thought I wasing crazy. >> No, but even like last summer, commodities had been rallying, but not like this and they just they just exploded uh starting in the first of the year. It was like a brand new bull market just started for a lot of them. >> And here's the interesting part about commodities is that historically these bull markets don't just last a few quarters or a few years. They last 10, 20. >> Yeah. >> So, if you're if you're betting this is over, then you're betting that this is the shortest commodity super cycle ever. Who's your boy that did the chart yesterday? Uh, is it Alfonso that did the gold to stock chart and it looks like it might be breaking out? >> Oh, yeah. >> You know what I'm talking about? Of course. It's a great chart. >> Gold Dow. I think that was Rick. Slick Rick. >> Okay. >> We got this uh this Lebanese Mexican dude. >> Really? >> Slick Rick. He's the man. >> He does commodities only or >> No, he just does everything, dude. He's like overlaying tech with like the Israeli shekele. Like this guy's >> He's a Lebanese Mexican. Yeah, they got those. >> Yeah. Lebanese Mexicans. Yeah. >> You got a lot of talented people on your roster. >> Thank you. I agree. >> How's uh how's Kenny doing? >> Dude, Kenny is a legend. >> I love Kenny. He showed up. He showed up on the morning show today with no shirt on. >> Right. Just like this like 1970s disco shirt and his chest hair all sticking out. >> He had Oh, like a jacket with no shirt under. >> Right. >> Wait, for the audience, not everybody knows Kenny. Kenny, right? If you don't know Kenny, >> Kenny Kenny Glick, aka Kung Fu Kenny, uh, aka Hit the Bid. Wait, he's like he's like, uh, >> Jefferson Crawl. >> Jefferson Crawl. >> He was like he was like Davy Day Trader before like way back in the day, but like >> I was going to say that, >> but who but he actually knows stocks. Like he was is the funniest person on camera talking about stocks. >> 100%. is the grandfather of day trading because think about that because day trading didn't exist until Kenny got on the scene. Kenny was there day one. He's the grandfather. >> He invented day trading. >> No, he's a mid to late 1990s vintage day trader. They don't make them They don't make them like that. >> They don't make them like that. You can't >> And most of those guys have not >> Does he still day trade? >> Right. That's my point. >> Does he still day trades >> every day, >> dude? If you still have capital and and you're doing it like late 90s style, you figured something out. >> Well, he only he trades the only intraday strategy I've ever seen work, which is you're fading rallies and you're uh and you're buying dips, particularly after earnings, they cross the one day anchored VWAP, and then that's your risk. >> Is it like is it like a 20 minute strategy or >> um well, it's you're looking at a one minute anchored VWAP, right? And then as soon as it gets above that and it mean reverts up on a sell-off, you're in. And then on a on a on a rally, you're fading the break down. >> That's got to be good for your blood pressure. >> I mean, listen, most trades are in the first half an hour of the day. So, >> you're the world's I tried day trading in like 98. I was the world's worst. I do not have the temperament for that. >> Yeah. And I was one of those guys where I'd get into a trade and then it would start going against me and all the three guys around me were like, "Dude, that's you're you got to sell it now." I'm like, "No." I start reading about the fundamentals of the company. >> They said, "I don't think you understand what we're doing here. >> This is ticks, bro. This is not about being right." And that doesn't sit well with me. I sort of I sort of can't operate that way. >> We've known each other for 20 years and you're still like, "Oh, yeah. You like that stock? Why?" >> Yeah. No, you know, >> cuz I think I could sell IT AT A HIGHER PRICE. What do you mean why? >> It's this is You know what? It's not a character flaw. It's due to my superior intellect. I have to have the the reasoning behind everything. >> Yeah. >> Even if it's fake, I still need something. >> You sound like one of these like old angry macro perma bears. >> You know, I'm [ __ ] 48 and I'm a perma bull. >> No, I know. I know. The things No, no, but the things you're saying like how you're speaking, obviously you're being sarcastic, but like those angry perma bulls actually do think that. >> Angry per angry perma bulls. Bears. >> Perma bears. >> Yeah. That that that you know that their intellect is so far superior than the market. >> Dude, I'm joking. >> Just for as long as you as long have you known Josh. Have you noticed that every single year he says I'm effing this age? I remember when he was like, "Dude, I'm 38 years old. I'm tired for that. I'm 41 years old. I'm tired for that. I'm getting too old for this shit." >> Yeah. But now as you're getting older, you're like, "Oh, you know, he was right." >> I've never said I've never I've never said those words out loud. I'm X years old. Yes, but there are things that you now acknowledge that you're too old for. >> Like I >> feel good. I'm still feeling good. >> I feel great, but I'm too old for for games. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's >> What kind of games? >> Like games people play with each other. I don't I don't play games with people. I thought about like Call of Duty. I don't play that anymore. >> No, no, no, no, no. Like I don't do I don't do group texts. I remove myself from like I'm like in five group texts. I used to be in 50. >> I used to be I used to be in group text with people from college. At a certain point, it's like are we even talking about anymore? >> 48. What is this even about? >> No, but you want to know something about Josh is that, you know, he gave me a lot of advice over the years because he was like ahead of the game. Like he had his kids before me. Like he was just a little bit older in not just in age but in other things too. And it's like all the things that dads tell you all are true, right? Like you know as you become a dad, I mean my oldest is five, the twins are three. So like but all the things that you ever said, >> remember I used to tell you let me say let me say this like 10 years ago. You'd be like, "Yo, what up? I'm in Manhattan. What are we doing?" I'm like, "I'm I'm like, I'm taking I'm taking the train home and taking my kid to little league." And you're like, "Oh, I I respect that. That makes sense. How many days a week do you do that?" I'm like, "Pretty much 5 days a week." >> And you're like, "Really?" >> I'm like, "Just you wait." And now you're in the [ __ ] >> That's right. >> You're in the [ __ ] for real. >> No, it's all good. You know some of you >> I know. It's the best time of your life. >> You want to know one of the best pieces of advice you ever gave me? >> Right. This is a good one cuz I think about this a lot. >> Buy six flags at four and a quarter. >> Yeah. Well, it was it was three and a half. It was like three and a half, but that's another story. It tripled. I thought I was Warren Buffett. Um, it was just Josh getting lucky as it turns out. But, uh, so, so I walked into Josh's office one day and I was like, you know, I can't like screw anything in. I can't hang a picture on the wall. Like, I'm such an idiot. Like, I can't do any of this stuff. And Josh goes, "Let me stop you right there. You go, you provide, and you you hire people to do all that [ __ ] Don't worry about it." And I'm like, "Yeah." He's like, "Yeah, yeah. Go make money. Don't worry about it. I'm like, "Oh, okay. >> Let me tell you." So, I think about this [ __ ] all the time. >> What was the alternative? You going to go to carpentry school? >> Well, I'm in my early 20s, so like I don't know anything. So, like now in hindsight, I'm like, "Yeah, I'm noting doing that." Josh says just pay somebody to do it. >> Your time is better spent reading, writing, researching, talking to people. Candlestick. >> Your time is not well spent learning how to screw in a light bulb. So, >> thank you. >> You're welcome. You're welcome. >> How is Disney? >> Listen, it's a It can't be a bare market, man. Talking $15 hot dogs, bro. >> $15 hot dogs. >> Go to Vegas. $30. $30 hot dogs. >> I was just there. $30 peanuts in the room. >> I had a $16 Subway sandwich. So offensive. >> That's gross. >> In New York, bro. >> So, no, in Vegas. >> The last time I was in The Last time I was in Vegas was with JC and Fami and went we went to um Pieros >> and a week later somebody tried to blow the restaurant up. >> Are you serious? >> Uhhuh. >> I love Vegas. I didn't send you that link. >> No. >> Somebody somebody in the middle of the night went went and lit the the restaurant on fire. >> So, I swear to God, a week after we went there, >> Wow. >> This place was like a little DL. Like, I could see how that would happen there. >> It's Pieros was in one of the scenes with Sharon Stone and uh Deniro in casino. >> Get him. >> Not that one. The other one. >> Dude, that place was good. >> Yeah. Yeah, it was it was legit. >> That scene where he's shaking the table. >> Uh yeah. Not the one where he busts her with Lester's, but maybe the one where she's like really >> I wouldn't do that. >> All right, let's get the show on the road. We got things to do. >> All right, you know the drill. >> All right, thank you, John. What episode is this, my friend? This is coming. Today's show is sponsored by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, and crypto. And now, generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year-over-year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities. Completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com/compound and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com/compound. Paid for by public investing. Full disclosure in podcast description. Hey quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, you are now rocking with the best investing podcast on God's Green Earth, episode 225. Super blessed. Cole Gang is here. Daniel is back. John's in the house. Duncan, Nicole, fan favorite, returning champion making his I've lost count appearance on the Compounded Friends. Y'all give it up for JC Parz. You hear it? Your head's broken. All right. All right, guys. Uh JC is the founder and chief technician of Trend Labs, a technical analysis focused research platform. JC also authors Everybody's Wrong, where he delivers charts and actionable ideas on a daily basis. JC, welcome back to the show. >> Thank you guys. My favorite show to do in the whole world. Number one, easy. >> We're really excited to have you here. So, uh, today's going to be fun because I know you have a bunch of charts that we're going to take a look at. And then I'm going to show you some charts that you may either like or be offended by. I'm not sure yet. Uh, but we'll do yours first. >> If you bring me an arithmetic scale price chart, I'm going to throw it at you. >> Something tells me I'm already in trouble. All right. Uh, I did want to Can Am I Can I play uh I could play an Instagram, right, John? >> Yep. >> All right. All right. >> Play an Instagram. >> Yeah. That's not That's all the kids, >> dude. He's 40. He really is for you. >> Is this working? >> Oh [ __ ] >> Who even uses Instagram? >> I don't know if it's work. Oh, wait. I got it. I got it. I got it. Hold on. >> The whole long-term capital management. I hope most of you are familiar with it. But the the whole story is really fascinating because if you take John Merryweather and Eric Rosenfeld, Larry Hill and Brand, Greg Hawkins, Victor Gani, >> smart men, >> the two Nobel Prize winners, Merton Scholes. If you take the 16 of them that they probably have as high an average IQ as any 16 people working together in one business in the country including at Microsoft or or wherever you want to name. So there incredible amount of intellect in that room. Now you combine that with the fact that those 16 had had extensive experience in the field they were operating. I mean this this was not a bunch of guys who had made their money you know selling men's clothing and then all of a sudden went into the securityities business or anything. They'd had they they'd had in aggregate the 16 that probably had 350 or 400 years of experience doing exactly what they were doing. And then you throw in the third factor that most of them had virtually all of their very substantial net worths in the business. So they had their own money up, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of their own money up, super high intellect, working in a field they knew, and essentially they went broke. And that to me is absolutely fascinating. I mean, I I if if I ever write a book, it's going to be called Why Smart People Do Dumb Things. >> My partner says that it should be autobiographical, but >> quite a this might be an interesting illustration. And these are perfectly decent guys. I you know, I I I I respect them and they helped me out when I was had problems with Solomon. And >> so they they're not bad people at all. >> But to make money they didn't have and didn't need, they risked what they did have and did need. And that's foolish. That is shift plane foolish. >> All right, that's the goat. That's the goat. >> That's the goat. Uh Warren Buffett commenting on long-term capital markets. >> Uh long-term capital management, which was a prominent hedge fund that blew up in the late 1990s. And uh I think there's like I think there's a lot in there, a lot to that. Um the first big idea is these are literally the smartest people there are working in money management. These are Nobel Prize winners, theoreticians, professional traders, asset managers, pickers. >> It's a whole room and a whole room full of them. >> Whole It's not even like one one guy making an error. It's a whole committee. I think there's a lesson in there that blowups can happen and they probably will happen the more arrogant people are about what they think they're they're good at is one. And then that second part like needless risk risking risking they all of them were multi multi multi-millionaires at the time that they were putting on the trades that melted down. What what are your thoughts? >> You know I think it gets back to something that thank God I understood is that you don't have to be smarter than everybody else. You just have to be slightly less stupid. >> So that's number one. It's about understanding the flaws that we have as human beings so that we don't fall victim to a lot of the mistakes that other people do. Right? We have to understand the way the human mind works. We have to understand those emotions when they come, recognize it, laugh about it, and then not do anything about it, not act upon those emotions. Now there's a second element to that which is where I come in where not only are we recognizing our own human behaviors but we are taking advantage of the fact that all the other humans not only do they don't know that they have those human flaws they don't even care to know and they're just living their lives but us as investors we can exploit their flaws for our own selfish endeavors so that we can make money for ourselves. But does but does be is there a such thing as being overly aware of those emotions and then having that be a limiting factor where you don't take enough risk or you don't trust your instinct enough because you might say to yourself, "Oh, here I go again. My hubris." Yeah. >> And then a huge winning trade goes by because you were so busy self-deprecating. Isn't that like also a thing? >> I mean, we could talk about precious metals over the last few months and every day it goes up another 4% and I'm like, "Oh my god." like there's no way this can keep going. Meanwhile, I haven't sold a single precious metal stock. >> Okay? >> Right? Because it hasn't hit our target, right? So, it goes back to pred nailing down what you're going to do so that you're completely eliminating your brain from the situation. You're just following the plan. So, what I think this morning or yesterday doesn't matter. I'm like, dude, there's no way this is going to keep going up. Oh, okay. Well, it doubled after I said that. So, you know, it doesn't matter what I think, right? Just follow the plan. Stick to the plan. So, I think that that's a big thing. And in terms of like, you know, an overabundance of information, you know, there's a specific groups that you want to fade. You want to fade. And if you could throw up slide one. Sure. >> Uh the new slide one. I just added another slide cuz we didn't have enough. Um you you want to fade. Uh >> I love this. >> All right. Why don't we get into this and I'll tell you what the four fade groups are. So you're talking about smart people blowing themselves up in 1998. Well, Isaac Newton, I don't know, pretty freaking smart. Uh he blew himself up, too. And for the same reasons that humans are blowing themselves up today. It has nothing to do with intelligence or that Isaac Newton was the man. He's a human at the end of the day. So what happens? >> Isaac Newton was the man. >> He was the man. >> I think I think >> I think scholars believe that he was one of the 10 smartest people who ever lived. >> Yeah. >> So okay, very important. >> So nobody's going to argue, nobody's going to say, "Oh, that guy was an idiot." Right? No, he's just a human, right? So what happened? So he starts This is the uh South Sea stock back in the day. If you don't know the story, uh go learn about the story. uh just one of the great bubbles uh of all time. So, I'm not we're not going to go into the bubble. The point is he starts buying it, right? Uh then he quickly doubles his money. Isaac Newton, >> this is in se 1718 for the for for the people not looking at the chart. >> This is the roaring 20s of the 1700s. >> 1700s, right? >> So, uh Isaac Newton doubles his money. Nice trade. Not bad, ISAAC. NOT BAD, BRO. RIGHT. And then, you know what I'm saying? Nice little double. And then all of a sudden, what happens? >> Newton's neighbors are getting rich. They're still in it. And now he's got the FOMO. He's like, "Bro." >> So he doubles. He's out. And then the people around him that he knows he's smarter than are making even more money. That will make you insane. >> Yeah. >> And so he's like, "You know what? The hell with it. I'm in." >> Oh my god. >> At the top. And then he blew himself up. >> Yeah. Uh exits broke. We know that for sure. Yeah. >> Broke. You heard that story? There's that famous quote that is, I think, misattributed to him. Somebody said that I can calculate the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the crowd or madness of people. >> It's probably made up, but it's a perfect quote. It's a great quote. >> I don't think he actually said it. >> By the way, that chart kind of looks like silver a little bit. >> Yeah. Well, >> every up trend is going to look like that. Don't even go there with me. >> No, no, no. That's going That's not an uptrend. That's not an uptrend. That That's a vertical trend. >> Listen, >> that's parabolic. Is the message here? It does. This is not a contest of who's the smartest. That's number one, right? And then the number two is comparison. My gains versus someone else's gains. And oh [ __ ] I better catch up. >> Being too smart might even be uh a negative. >> I've seen a million examples. >> The midw the midw curve is real. >> Yeah. >> Um one thing that Buffett didn't mention in that video, and it's sort of besides the point, but also relevant. They were levered 250 to1. >> Probably like not a great recipe, >> but that's the arrogance. They wouldn't do they wouldn't do that if they weren't thinking to themselves, we have the whole machine figured out >> and like it's fixed income arbitrage. What can go wrong? Like these things don't really move that much until they do. >> That's right. >> Right. So, so there's a couple of components to it. It's like we know exactly what we're doing. Therefore, why 100 times leverage when we could be 200? Why 200? We could be 250. So, that's one thing. And the second thing is just like look at look at how brilliant we are. And the third thing is why are we push putting the pedal to the metal? do we really need to make this much money? And of course, none of them did at at the now they might. None of them did at the time. So, I I think those are really um crucial lessons for investors. And I just thought that was an interesting thing to see Buffett pointing that out. >> So, it's two things. It's the internal and the external. If you could throw up the slide, too. I just added one more. So, it's the internal and the external. >> Good luck today, John. >> No, no, that was it. That was it. So, you know, it's about recognizing our own flaws and then taking advantage of the others, right, for our own selfish gain. So to me there are four basic fade groups. You have sellside analysts, right? So they come with their own conflicts of interest. Of course, like you know, they're going to say something bad about a company, but they're working on an M&A deal, they're going to get a tap on the shoulder. And if you think that doesn't happen, I think you're crazy. So there's that. There's the career risk where, you know, if there are 30 analysts covering a stock and they're all bullish and you're not and you're wrong, you're going to be looking for a job, right? And it's not worth the career risk because little Timmy's private school and Martha's Botox and the country club and the whole thing. It's not worth it. >> Call it uh hurting >> hurting hurting mentality, right? Hurting is very strong. >> Safety in the in the >> 100%. So you have that. So we could take advantage of that for our own selfish endeavor. So you got the four uh you got the four uh is that me or is that you >> dude? Who's what are we doing here? >> Kids got tonsillitis. I don't know. >> Is this your first podcast? >> It might be. >> Amateur hour. All right. Right. Wall Street, right? Wall Street analyst, right? Great fade, particularly at consensus. Remember 3 years ago exactly coming into 23. Wall Street was at a consensus that the stock market was going to fall in 2023. As it turns out, the NASDAQ doubled instead. Right. Classic. It's a better signal when they're all bearish versus when they're all bullish. If they're all bullish, that's standard hurting. Yeah. Yeah. S&P is going to go up 8 to 10%. EVEN THOUGH IT NEVER DOES. >> THAT'S not the fade. The fade is when they're all bearish. Okay. It's asymmetric. It's not the same thing. Okay. I like that. uh asset managers. These are hedge funds, asset managers. These are historically the worst investors of all time. We have the data, right? So, >> how do you measure that? >> That makes perfect sense. >> What do you mean? >> Well, in the futures market in particular, right? So, you're seeing futures positioning, you're looking at the speculators, the asset managers when they're at a consensus do the opposite, right? Like for example, they had a historic net short position in Russell 2000 futures this summer. How'd that work out? Right. For example, uh but we can go it goes on it right now. >> Hedges though, >> no. Isn't it is it ever good if if they lose money in the Russell futures, maybe their hedge fun's there's a there's this thought process that hedge fund managers hedge. No, no, no. That's just a fugazi. They're they're in. >> Okay. So, those are concentrated bets, not hedges. >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Um asset managers fade them at consensus. Journalists because they're so good at their jobs, right? Journalists are not traders. In a lot of cases, they can't afford to be. In a lot of cases, they have the money, but legally they can't because they're not allowed, right? So, they're not traders. Fine. They're really good at what they do. What do they do? They see what the narrative is. They're there to sell newspapers, magazines, right? So, they want to see what people are talking about and then write articles about that. By the time the journalist figures that out by the time they write their article, submit the cover, uh, all of that gets approved. By the time that hits the shelves, it's too late. Take the other side. Right? >> Like, cuz they're writing about something that already happened and explaining it to people and they do a really good job at that. But that is not the same thing as f trying to find a prospective opportunity that hasn't happened. >> Well, within journalists, it depends on the journalist. For example, Barons only writes about the stock market, right? They're pretty much on top of it. Now, of course, there's been some magazine covers, but like you can't fade every Baron's cover. When The Economist is putting Lululemon on the cover, that's like, wait, what? Why is The Economist talking about Lululemon? >> All right. I like Newsweek time. Right. >> I like that distinction where it look if you if you're fading everybody who's writing about stocks everywhere, you're fading some people that focus on stocks 24/7 and they understand everything we just said. >> That's not the answer. I do agree with Michael. When a stock story crosses over into the mainstream media, you're in the eighth inning >> or a theme or anything like that. Like how many AI covers did we have at the end of the year? >> Every investor is doing hacks, >> right? $5,000. Yeah, we talked about it on the show. And again, it's not like we're just fading magazine covers. It's like when it lines up with price and it lines up with futures positioning and other things >> the time person of the year is like the seven most important AI CEOs. >> Perfect. >> A month ago. It's beyond perfect. >> Perfect. Okay. >> And then the fourth one is economist. And the economist is easy. Why are they wrong all the time? It's very simple. By design, they ignore what actually is happening in favor of what they think should be happening based on information that may or may not have happened. >> Right? So, >> wait, >> are you surprised that they're wrong all the time? >> Say more. >> Okay. So, economists, what do they do? They ignore what is happening. The prices of assets >> is what is happening >> in favor? And I know you have economist friends, so don't get sensitive about it. It's just what it is. They they >> He does, right? >> So, you got >> So, do you >> do I maybe >> maybe I don't know. Don't tell anybody. So what are they? They they look they ignore what is happening in favor of data that may or may not have happened because we know it it may probably will get revised. >> Right. And ignore is like pay no attention to what is happening. >> Right. >> Right. So if you're >> so not fade economists on the economy, fade economists on when they start talking about the stock market. >> Hell yeah. Hell yeah. All right. You guys ready? All right. So those are the four fade groups. Simple. Okay. We don't have to complicate things. So there's a lot of information out there. There's a lot of noise. Focus on these. Do the opposite. especially when they all agree. >> Okay. All right. I don't hate that. >> I think and we're painting with a broad brush. There's some there's some awesome every single person. >> I know sellside analysts. I know asset managers and journalists and maybe I know economist. I don't even know. >> There's an there's an economist somewhere listening to us saying [ __ ] fade podcasters. For sure. >> For sure. And then what happened to that guy? >> Fully justified. >> Whatever happened to that guy who was hating on blog on the blog on the bloggers back in the day that nobody ever heard from again, right? How'd that work out for him? not great >> hating on bloggers, >> dude. He was hating. Josh went off. We don't have to go there if you don't want. >> There was a guy, I'm not gonna say his name. Um, he sucks. He was a CNBC guy in like 0809 2010 and blogs were a brand new thing. He was like forced to react to all these stories that were happening on blogs like Barry's site and Zero Hedge and you know like all the stuff. Yeah. So he would do a segment night I think it was nightly blog you and he would just go off on somebody that was like from Twitter and he didn't make any friends and uh I don't I don't know if he was right or wrong. I forgot what he was saying but that was a thing. >> Okay. >> That was a it was a moment. >> Don't fade the bloggers. I'll tell you what they got they got cuz they got followers, right? I mean myself included. I mean I'm I'm there now. I wasn't then but I'm there now. All right. Let's get into it. You want to talk markets or what? >> Yes, let's do it. >> All right. Let's do it. So speaking of economists, uh the economists tell me that uh US GDP 70% of that is uh is consumer. So I don't know what a GDP is, but 70% of a lot 70% of anything is a lot, right? Yes. >> So we're seeing new all-time highs in consumer discretionary on both a market cap weighted and an equally weighted basis. Is that bearish? >> I don't think so. Is this heavily influenced by the stocks that are in the index or it doesn't matter really? The kind of the the the biggest market cap stocks in the index. >> So in the discretionary Tesla and Amazon are each over 20%. >> That's what I'm asking. >> Right. So fine. People are like, "Oh, it's just the big ones." Well, the equally weighted consumer discretionary index that completely eliminates those stocks out of the equation altogether is also making new alltime highs. >> Yep. Okay. That's the signal, right? How many how many people fail to correct themselves and look at the equal weight version of the index for that confirmation? >> Humans are lazy, bro. >> Right? It's like doesn't take much to double check. If you just look at an index and say, "Oh, it's all Apple and Microsoft." Well, wait, what does equal weight tech look like? >> Right? >> Not everybody will do that. >> And what does small cap tech look like? And what does midcap tech look like? >> Are you less bullish if you don't have that confirmation in the equal weight? >> You know, it's funny because well, first of all, on the consumer discretionary um Consumers have been quite the underperformer of this bull market, right? It's been technology, industrials, financials, uh, uh, communications. It's been the other offensive groups, not discretionary. So, looking at discretionary underperforming, if if there were others in that group underperforming, that would be a problem. But because it's the only one, we've been betting on rotation into it. I'm going to sort of say something that you probably don't care about, but I actually think there's a huge flaw with consumer discretionary being in uh in in uh a sector because the bifurcation between travel and restaurants last year is the reason that the consumer stocks quote unquote underperformed as a sector. The reality is they're not really a sector. People don't um necessarily choose between I'm going to go out to eat versus I'm going to go on a trip. They probably can do both if they feel like it. The restaurant stocks have been horrible. A lot of consumer discretionary stocks have been horrible. The travel stocks could not have been better. Even like I know airlines are not in it, but like the Expedias of the world. Um, so >> but airlines you would you could argue should be in it and Delta and uh United Air are making new alltime highs. >> And then here's the other thing. >> Walmart is not in making all high. >> What if I just take consumer discretionary and throw it out and look at Visa and Mastercard instead? >> Right. >> I like that signal better. Well, Jeff Mackey would agree with a lot of the things you're saying. Yeah. Right. I talked to Jeff a lot and he's like every like you know Uber's a consumer stock. Apple's a consumer stock. Google's a consumer stock. Right. So weird. >> So So just go with Visa, Mastercard. Let that What are they What are they saying? What are their share prices saying? >> I'd rather know that than start cherrypicking like what does Applebees think of the environment? Who gives a [ __ ] >> They might be doing really well or really poorly relative to their peers. >> Chilies though. >> Yeah. Great. Okay. I I like that concept. >> Okay. But meanwhile, look what's happening. Uh consumer sentiment is actually at the lowest levels ever. So you got the the humans are >> pure politics. >> Yeah, maybe fine. But the humans are very upset and uh the price of assets is making new highs, you know. >> These are these are different people. The people that are upset don't own stocks. >> Yeah. Well, I'll tell you what. In the in 1999 when this was at highs, uh the stock market crashed from there. And in 2019 with this as was this was the highs, we had three major corrections, including a full-on bare market and a historic market crash immediately after they were all uh super giddy. So yeah, these might be different people. It might be politics. I hear all that [ __ ] All I know is these people are angry and the consumer stocks are making new all-time highs. I couldn't think of a better combination. >> I can't believe this hasn't bounced. >> Well, I guess what? I This will never This will never be where it where it was. This is a this is a secular bare market. Yeah, >> I agree because the top is the advent of the internet. >> The internet makes people miserable. >> Nobody answers questions. People are miserable on the internet. This will never be over over 110 in our lifetime. >> I guess we'll see. My point is the humans are angry and the uh stocks that represent the humans are angry and the stocks that represent the behavior of those humans are making all-time highs. I love that combination. >> Okay. I I like that's a good counterpoint to the people that are talking about bubbles and euphoria and all these things. We'll get there. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. >> Um Okay. So, let's let's do a little uh let's have some fun here. Uh we're looking at Micro Strategy um hitting new lows uh more recently. And this was look at that top right when that cover came off. If you want to go to the next one, zoom in on that cover, >> you know, right there. The Bitcoin alchemist, >> the volatility virtuoso, >> Michael. >> Michael Sailor. Uh, so just look at where that peaked, right? >> That's January 30th, 2025. That's a year ago next week. >> Yep. So that's not a coincidence. >> Do you have a relative chart I say? >> Settle down. Here we go. So, um, Micro Strategy relative to Bitcoin. >> So, um, so this is a ratio of the price of Micro Strategy, which is doing the Ponzi with the Bitcoin, and then the actual price of Bitcoin, right? And then notice when it peaked. It peaked on November the 20th of 2024. Does anyone know what happened the day before that? >> The coronation of Donald Trump. >> No. >> Wait, the for what? I'm sorry. I was think >> November the 20th >> Thank Thanksgiving. >> November the 20th of 2024. The ratio between Micro Strategy and Bitcoin peaked. In other words, up until November 20th, if you wanted to put on a leverage long position in Bitcoin and make money in Bitcoin, Micro Strategy was the preferred vehicle over >> ETFs. >> No, that was January 24. >> Yeah. When what happened that day? >> November the 20th, 2024 was the peak and it crashed after that. The day before that, November 19th, was the day that options started trading on IBIT. >> Oh, that's good. Oh, well, that explains it. >> Price discovery, >> dude. No, no, no. It's the opposite. >> It's not necessary anymore. >> You don't need this anymore. >> You don't need it anymore. fluous. And by the way, it's not that's not a Ponzi scheme. Literally, >> I'm I'm not smart enough to understand. I don't care. It's a Ponzi. I hope it is. Doesn't matter to me at all. >> Right. >> So, my point is, not only does it not matter, I got long yesterday. >> You're long, Michael. >> The Ponzi. Yeah. Throw it up. There it is. >> Wait, it's a false breakdown. >> You're short the Ponzi. You're long. >> Long the Ponzi. >> It's not a Ponzi. >> Okay, fine. Great. >> No, but he doesn't matter whether it is or not. Jesus Christ. It's a digital assets treasury corporation. >> Yeah, sure. >> Okay. Uh, so you think we're seeing a false breakdown in strategy? >> So, dude, I'm telling you right now, how long have you known me? Every year is the same [ __ ] man. At the end of the year between that Christmas, New Year's, you got the bee squads on the desks, you got like nobody's you got there's no liquidity, >> tax law selling, they're puking stocks up, >> there's just low liquidity. Weird [ __ ] happens. And then you get back to work and they squeeze them higher. And going into that week, I'm like, crypto, crypto, Coinbase, Micro Strategy. I didn't know uh I had to see confirmation and then we got it. So, I got long yesterday pretty aggressively. So, I might add, uh let's see how it works for me. I'm going to keep a tight stop. Um very tight. >> You like this the way this one looks cuz it's a false breakdown that's now recovering versus the Coinbases or just buying a Bitcoin ETF. >> I'm I'm in Coinbase already also. >> Okay. But um I put on a Micro Strategy position yesterday, which I hadn't in a long time. >> Okay. All right. >> And then if you want to throw up the Bitcoin. >> Wait, Tracy, what does a tight stop mean to you? I'm curious. >> Well, it's I'm using a time stop because it's either going to go or it's not. And if it's going to go, it's going to go now. So, I might be out of this tomorrow. >> A time stop like a mental thing. >> Oh, okay. Okay. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> I like it. So, if it doesn't work now, I'm in this for two, three days. Well, I'd like to be in it for 3 months, but if it doesn't go in the first couple days, I'm out. >> Right. Cuz if trades don't work immediately when you think they should, >> not all of them, but this one definitely. >> Yeah. Okay. >> This one's either going to go or it's not. >> This looks This looks good to me. >> So, there's your anchored VWAP from the highs last year. You know, you're looking at 97. If we're above 97, the squeeze is Oh, >> I mean, this is like this is like uh I don't know how me how meaningful is that is that moving average? Is that a 10day? >> It's a VWAP. >> Volume weighted average price. >> All right. So, they're coming they're coming for the stock. They're coming for their coin. >> That's right. That's right. So, funny money long. >> Uh and then I just want to remind everybody that we've seen this story before. There's Fat Fred Savage right there on the cover of Forbes. And then remember what happened? >> Wasn't Didn't you make that? >> Yeah, you that's Josh line. >> Yeah, I did. >> Yeah. >> So, uh Sam Bankman Freed Fat Fred Savage. It's funny. >> That was you. >> Yeah. It's funny me calling anyone that, but okay, got it. Uh, he's in What is he going to do about it? Nothing. >> He's playing chess with Diddy. >> Yeah, I'm not worried about it. >> All right, go ahead. >> So, my point is that we've seen this before, right? And we'll see it again. So, it's not like funny. Haha. Not like No, no, no. Pay attention because we will see this again. This is not like a oneandone. This happens again and again and again. I probably have the greatest collection of magazine covers probably in the world. I don't think anybody has a collection like mine. I have magazines that go back to the bicycle bubble of the late 1800s. I got some [ __ ] right? And it's the same story again and again and again. >> What? The rise and fall of a of of a theme. >> All all kinds of things. All kinds of things. Um, all right. >> You're right. That is one of the constants forever and ever and ever will never not happen. >> I hope they >> I'm going to bring them next time I'm on the show. I'm going to bring a bunch of magazines and we'll look at them. I have some good stuff. All right. So, this was in November. So, this was very creative. The best ones usually are So, this one is a guy uh doing a yard sale down the down the uh mountain and then they turned his skis into red arrows pointing down how the markets could topple the economy. Josh, >> what does that mean? Like if the markets if the markets get crushed, the economy will get crushed with it. >> Notice Hold on. Go back. Go back. Go back. Notice the map uh of the world on his ass. >> Ah, >> that was good, right? Look, it's really good. >> It's snow comprising the continents. I wouldn't have seen that if you had pointed out. >> I know. So good. So good. Anyway, so the rule of thumb is whenever there's a chart on the cover of the magazine, you buy stocks. >> Yeah. >> Right. So I pulled all my associates and we agreed that that was a chart technically with the arrows. >> Yeah. >> And so here's the returns of stocks since then. >> Oh, micros. >> Micro caps up 15%. Tranny's up 12, small caps up 12, midcaps up 10. >> We don't say [ __ ] Uh >> we do this every time. Transportation Americans every time he's on the show. They don't like it. >> Transportation Americans. Disrespectful. So, uh, stocks absolutely ripping, uh, since then because of course they are because if the if these British journalists are telling you that the stock market is going to topple, it's probably going to be the opposite, right? And sure enough, it was. >> This is unbelievable the unanimity with which every one of these things proceeded to to work. >> Is it surprising to you? >> Yeah. So, I guess the economist has to wait for Q2 for markets to topple the economy. Oh, here we go. So, they So, the journalists aren't wrong. It's just a bubble. That's all. >> So, uh, Rit Holtz is slipping into my DMs. >> Oh, boy. >> You know. >> Oh, boy. >> He does that late at night sometimes. >> Yeah. >> And so, we're talking about, uh, this one. What do you guys think about this one? >> Beware of the bubble. How to survive the year ahead. What day does this come out? Is this >> last week? >> This is last week. >> Yeah. I just >> What is it even worth commenting on what they mean? Which bubble? >> AI. >> It's just it every It's just a bubble. All the bubbles. >> It's just everything is a bubble. you know, all the bubbles. Josh, >> so for me, the cover is not enough. I have to read the spiel. >> Got it. Of course. >> See what they're saying. >> Yeah. Yeah. He buys the Playboy for the articles. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> No, I just have to I can't fade something if I don't even know. They're not even saying what the bubble is in. It's almost like this cover will be wrong or right no matter what cuz they're not saying what the bubble's in. >> That's right. Well, I gave a presentation a couple months ago, I think in Vegas, and I asked everybody, you know, raise your hand if you think we're in a bubble. And the entire uh room raised their hand and I'm like I didn't even mention an athlete. >> Who's the who's the audience? >> Um I don't know like rich investors, >> right? Raise your hand if we're in a bubble and it it doesn't even matter. >> Doesn't matter. Okay. >> It was great. Um Okay. >> What do you think most of them think? You mean do they are they thinking like Nvidia uh AI? >> Probably. >> Okay. All right. >> Yeah, probably. >> Okay. >> Um All right. I mean, listen, any anything that's going up that you're not in is a bubble, right? I think there are a lot of very well-known stocks that are not in tech that are definitely, if not in bubbles, on their way. Costco, Walmart. These should not be 40 times earnings. >> Oh, here we go. Earnings. >> Those are not bubbles. They're >> on their way. >> Dude, 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. >> How about that for saying it's not a good company? >> Costco can't be a bubble. >> I'm saying historically, people didn't buy those stocks at that expensive of a price without getting their asses kicked eventually. Don't worry, this time is different. >> Fair enough. All right, go ahead. >> Uh, all right. So, last year, a year ago today, check the tape. I told you that international was out going to outperform the United States and the dollar was going to get smoked, right? >> Yes. >> And you said that I hope you're right because that would be really good for our industry as in financial advisors, you know, that would be really good. So, I'm curious. >> You said that then. Was it and how? Well, for the first time in a decade, my adviserss don't have to explain to clients why they own anything other than the S&P 500 >> or the keys. >> Am I overstating it? >> No. >> Okay. Like that has been a conversation. Not every client, not every year, but it's like what what is the point of emerging markets? What is the point of Western Europe? What is the point of Japan? Different people at different times. Nobody's asking that question right now. So, nobody who stuck it out. >> That's right. >> Yeah. So emerging markets X China up 35%. Emerging markets with China up 34%. All country world index X North America up 32%. Epha which is a lot of Europe and Japan up over 30%. You know go down the list. Right. >> If you pull back if you pull this back 15 years and just look at cumulative returns that trade could have like five more years to go and still not get get to where the S&P and it may never. I'm not I'm not telling you that'll mean revert and you'll get those types of returns, but like for people who think they missed it, what do what do you think on the technicals? >> I agree wholeheartedly with you that I mean this was a long time of the other side, you know. So there is it's 15 years >> and we don't need to like if you if you want to see what all these countries look like go watch the last episode I was in in the summer and we went through except higher and more to the right but all these countries are up Latin America South Africa uh Asia Southeast Asia all across Europe >> up and to the right Japan >> I love that line higher and more to the right >> yeah higher than they were in the summer and more to the right so the United States put up historic numbers There's 20% year for the NASDAQ, 17% year for the S&P 500, and the US was one of the worst countries on the planet. >> Yeah. And that's and that's like even with all the AI that people were saying there's no AI stocks in the like right like Europe has ASML, that's it. And uh >> SAP >> Well, is there a PL? Is this an advertisement mid show? >> So, so I dove so I dove into this uh in our chart. >> Kid put a a banner ad into Yeah. So, this is brought to you by our sponsor, Charts Summit 2026. No, I mean, because I get I dive into all of these charts. >> You're the only person that this is allowed for. >> Well, I >> All right, go >> go download the deck. Go download the deck from the presentation. You have friends on this list. >> I'm going to see I'm going to see Katie Stockton in uh 45 minutes from now. >> Well, tell her I said what's up. She was great. Uh David Longren, uh Frank Capillary Straz and I gave a great presentation. Go download the deck. Check it Hey, this is a this is actually a pretty damn good uh roster. How'd you get all these people? >> Drinking buddies. >> Is that Is that Max Kellerman on top right? Who is it? >> Yeah. Uh Max Kellerman talking about boxing. Uh John Neetto, Market Wizard. So you can download my deck and all the other decks and watch all the presentations. It's totally free. So go check that out. >> All right. Chartsummit.com. All right. So these are in your opinion like some of the more interesting technicians who made presentations. I mean, listen, Katie's great, Frank is great, Neto, Lungren, they're all fantastic, but I got to tell you, me and Straza's presentation was pretty pretty good. >> Did any of the technicians disagree with uh what you guys are are telling people, >> you know, people weigh different things he more heavily and and lighter. Katie uses a lot more oscillators than I do, for example. She uses the ichiro clouds and all that stuff. >> She's a Demar person, too. >> She's a Demar. Lundren uh looks at things from a different perspective. Frank Cap as well. So, like, you know, check it out. Enjoy it. Ryan Dietrich as well. >> Um, all right. So, I I don't want to get into all of the different international markets and everything like that. We've done that before. We go over it on the presentation. Go check that out there. This is the big one. Uh, these are the assets uh throughout uh 2025 and the returns. Bitcoin was actually down. Bonds flat. S&Ps put up record numbers with the Q's and just massive underperformers. Look at silver. >> Why you say record numbers? What do you mean by that? 70% return in the S&P 500, double the annual average return. Yeah, I'd say that's >> it's nowhere close to record, but it's a good it's a good year. >> It's not a record amount better, but it's a it's a better year than the average. >> Yeah, of course. >> A great year. No one's going to say it wasn't a great year. >> It's a great year. >> But but underperformed practically everything else. >> Look at that. Look at this though. Silver up 150%, gold up 65, emerging markets 34, developed stocks 32. Like that's where the real money was made last year. Yeah, >> it's I mean it's obvious. >> Yeah. >> So, it's too late. My barber asked me this morning a haircut from uh Dominic. >> How early do you get a haircut? >> The Bmore Barber. He wants to know if he should buy more silver. >> Seriously? >> Yeah. >> So, he said he said I I'm hearing uh I'm hearing it could go higher from here. >> Are you making a joke or you >> swear in my life? And I said I said, "Dominic, it definitely can go higher from here. I don't I'm not going to be the one that tells you." That's right. >> But just understand like it was 16, it's 90. >> You know what I'm saying? like it like it's not early. So, I mean, I don't I don't know what to tell anybody. >> We'll get to the silver in a second. Um, let's stick with the stocks for right now. I just kind of wanted to put things in perspective. Look at the industrials and the transports. Both of these indexes are making new highs. This these indexes go back to the late 1800s. They've never been higher. Closing at alltime highs together. >> That's so bullish. >> So, it's less of a signal. I'm getting, you know, emails from, you know, uh, journalists and stuff like that like, "Oh, big signal." It's like, "No, no, no. It's not so much a signal as it is confirmation." Yeah. >> Confirmation of what? confirmation of all the other things that are suggesting and have been suggesting that we're in a bull market. This just confirms that all those things are in fact something about Dow theory though. This is my this is my uh this is like anecdotally what I find. When it is in the favor of the bulls, people will point it out and then when it's not cuz transports are doing badly, people just forget about it. Like who cares? >> Um do you do you get that sense? Also, >> I feel like just nobody cares. And I'm the old man in the room telling you that this is the most important thing that you need to be watching. >> All right? Because I want to point out we had a really great run of years where the S&P was making highs or the Dow was making highs and the transports were not. And people like me very cleverly substituted the the socks. >> Yeah. >> And I would say semis are the new transports anyway. Don't care that the airlines don't look good. And like the markets did great. like it it didn't matter that we didn't have that confirmation, I guess, is what I'm trying to say. Now we have it. Okay, convenient. >> These divergences come at peaks like regularly. Even before co tradies were already rolling over. Look at the uh >> never change. >> Look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite >> making all-time highs. These are the stocks that trade on the world's most important exchange. You know how many mega cap tech stocks there are on the New York Stock Exchange? Three. United States mega cap tech stocks, I should say. You got IBM, Salesforce, and >> Cisco. No, IBM, Salesforce, and there's one more, Oracle. Those are the only three mega cap tech stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ, you got Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, all those others. Uh Taiwan Semi, uh also trades on the New York Stock Exchange. >> SAP, um Noardis, you got a over a third of the New York Stock Exchange is international companies. You're getting a lot more cyclicals there. You're not getting this mega cap tech exposure that you're getting in the NASDAQ. The New York Stock Exchange is to me the best universe of stocks in the world. >> Okay, that's not obviously not bearish. I don't know if it's necessarily bullish. >> Oh, wait. Jason, let me ask a question. When people say to you, I am uncomfortable. I am leaning bearish because everything is working. What do you say to that person? >> I would say go back and study history. >> Meaning >> meaning the best time to buy stocks is when it's making new highs. We have the we have the data. We have the math, right? We know that asset prices trend. Like there's a lot about the market that we don't know, but there's a few things that we do know. And we know that asset prices trend. So if you're constantly fighting trends, then you are the sucker, right? You want to be the house. >> Asset prices don't oscillate, >> right? >> They don't it's not up down up down up down. They're going up or they're going down or they're doing nothing. >> If you if you are the type of personality where you think this is as good as it gets, you will not make money over time. I forget who said it the other day and said, you know, if you want to manage money, you want to manage a portfolio, you better be you better be comfortable with buying things after they've already doubled because if you're not, you're not going to last. >> Yeah. Right. Because because there's a reason why something's doubled. >> Yeah. >> And you'll find out later. >> And you're not smart enough or informed enough to know yet. And you may never be, by the way. >> Right. So this is the problem with using intuition in the markets. It's like it's so obvious that nobody wants to buy something that was just five and now is 10. >> But you know what's so funny about this? Like when I talk that the market is bullish and people accuse me of being bullish or naive, it's like this. I'm not giving you an opinion of what I think will happen in 12 months, I'm describing what is happening today. That's right. >> And objectively, if you're fading every episode when we're bullish because the stock market is bullish, you're gonna you're not going to make any money. Do you know um we launched our RAIA in September of 2013 and it's been a long time but somebody once sent me the tweet where I back then people used to go on this thing called Twitter and announce stuff. Um I tweeted a link to my blog post announcing the new firm or maybe it was Barry's one or the other. Somebody sent me this and like there were like 50 responses. Congratulations. So happy for you guys. But like half the responses were top top 2013. >> Yeah. >> Where was the was the Dow at 18,000? >> That was that was the end of the last decade. Remember that was that they were talking about it last decade. We were just breaking out. >> Top. Barry and Josh just launched an RA at top. >> Really? >> Yeah. >> Top. Sure. >> With like 100 million. >> But but the reason why they were saying that is not they weren't saying that cuz like they're making fun of us. They're teasing us. They're saying that because in 2013, the market had finally come all the way back to the ' 07 high after having been cut in half. That's why they're >> and 2020 and 20. >> You have to buy tops. >> Yeah, >> cuz they're probably not tops. That's right. >> It's very hard to do. >> People think that the top of the chart means that there's resistance. >> Oh, it's the opposite. >> Well, people are out of their minds. They think they think it's a personal top for them. >> Yeah. >> They think here we go again. >> Yeah. >> Right. Like I'm going to top it by buying. just my luck, >> right? As far as you're not that important. >> So, so to me, it's a market of stocks. So, we look at the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ, you know, we look at the um Russell 3000. Um, it's a market of stocks >> at the end of the day. >> I know you've got a ratio of the smallest to the bigs. >> Yeah, I'm getting there. I'll get there. Uh, so here we're looking at the percentage of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange above their 200 day moving average hitting new 52 week highs yesterday. >> So, that also happened in 2021, though. is that that's like not always great. >> More stocks in uptrends is not a bad thing for the market, >> but it's not always a great moment to buy. >> That's all I'm saying >> on average of this. >> All I'm saying is that >> it's not always 2021. >> All I'm saying is these lies that they were telling you in the fourth quarter about how his weakening breath and market deterioration, it was just sour grapes. >> What they were saying to quote Jeff Degraph, he called it sour grapes. He's he was right. It's just that the concentration of returns up until that point was so strong. That doesn't mean it's weak market breath. It's that the concentration of the best stocks. >> Amen, sister. It's two different things. We know that the average return one year later is higher at an all-time high than on all other days. So, we know that for a fact. So, yes, obviously not always. Obviously, and also most of the time crashes don't start from all-time highs. And if this is the top right here today and the market weakens and we it starts to starts to deteriorate, we see distribution, we see selling more 52 week lows, we'll see it. >> People are like, "Oh, 1987 came out. You could change your mind." People are like, "Oh, 1987 came out of nowhere." No, the market peaked in August. The crash wasn't until October. >> You know what else people assume that like the typical investor is a lump sum investor like, "All right, here's everything putting it all in today." >> But Jesse, say this loud. Stocks crash from oversold conditions. Stocks crash when they're in downtrends for the most part. >> Yeah, >> they don't happen overnight. >> Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's right. >> Yeah, that's right. Um, so here's a really interesting one. So, this is so the NASDAQ hasn't made a new high since October, but this is the NASDAQ 100 QQQ, but uh NASDAQ stocks 101 through 200, which is the NASDAQ NextG 100. >> No, what is this? This is this is an an index. This is 101 through 200. >> This is like zoom. >> This is the next hund. >> Like the the smaller tech stocks. >> Oh, that's it. So, it's QQQJ. It has >> like Palaton. Like, what's in here? I'm curious. >> Have you ever looked at this? >> Yeah. Yeah. Back in the day. >> So, these are the next 100 names. So, you're looking at companies between 20 and $40 billion in market capitalization. >> So, all right. So, these are like big tech stocks, not big enough to be in the NASDAQ one. This could be like data dog or like I'm trying to think like what you're going to get. Here we go. SanDisk, eBay, Fizer, Pterodine, United Airlines. That's weird. Cororeweave, Expedia, Kimberly Clark. There's some weird [ __ ] in the NASDAQ these days. But but that's it. >> You're getting four times the healthcare exposure. So, a lot of these biotechs are not big enough to be in the NASDAQ 100. So, you're going to get a lot more healthcare here. So, that certainly helps. >> Dude, how weird is this? Dollar Tree and Ulta and United. Like, >> there's a big trend like, you know, Walmart switched from the New York Stock to the NASDAQ. >> They're all bouncing from the NY. What's going on? So they want to be seen as uh growth companies, not as blue chips. That's like the >> NASDAQ that's the wave. >> NASDAQ's got the crown. >> Yeah, I don't think so. So So the point is So the point is just because some of these big ones aren't working doesn't mean that tech stocks are not working. So it was hilarious. So this guy this guy Ron Dantis, right? My understanding he's the I think he's the governor of Florida or something like that. >> Correct. So this guy's talking about market breath, you know, talking about how it's the mag seven economy and everything like that. A funny thing happened that day. >> Is this real? >> A funny thing happened that day. That was the day that the mag seven stocks peaked on a relative basis and have gone. >> Can you read the tweet? >> You want to read the tweet? >> Yeah. >> The magnificent 7 economy. Has there ever been a time in which the market was as skewed towards one sector and really one aspect of one sector as it is lately? So funny thing happened. October 29th, 2025. Thank you, Governor. >> So, funny thing happened. So, not only was that not true, right? He either didn't bother to count or he was lying. Either way, not acceptable. Since then, practically every stock is going up except those. >> Yeah, he should re he should revisit that tweet. >> What a chart. So, do you think that we're we're on false break? Are we on a false breakdown? Watch or you think that it's got it's got lower lows >> here. Go to the next one. So, what we've seen since then, the NASDAQ has yet to make a new high and technology has massively underperformed in that environment. But, and you know, I like big butts. This is a big butt. Throw up the next one. But, semiconductors making all-time highs on a relative basis. How bad could it be for tech if semis are still rolling? It's a software issue. It's a mega cap issue, but if semis are rolling, how bad could things be? >> So, you're you're buying the weakness of mega cap tech. I personally I mean I bought on this uh recently but that's like it's small small communications equipment. >> I'm talking like like Microsoft like are you buying the weakness of Microsoft? >> I am not I have not yet. >> Microsoft looks heavy. >> I am not yet. Uh I think that this is going to be a process. >> Meta looks meta looks lifeless. >> I want to look I want to look Microsoft is worse than meta. >> So let's let's talk about where I do want to look. Right. So uh go to the next one. And as I mentioned uh the world looks great. You know it's not a bull market for America. It's a bull market for Earth, right? The planet that we live in, Earthlings. >> No, no, no tiny, no tiny Lithuanian stocks today, please. >> No, no, no. We're not gonna go do this country thing. Check the tape. Go back to when I was in in the summer for the 200th episode. And then all of those are just higher and more to the right. Yeah. >> So, we don't have to do this again. The the world's making alltime highs. And if you exclude America, also still making alltime highs. We can move on. All right. So, what are we going to buy? So, this one to me, I think this is a big chart right here. throw up the small caps there on a relative basis. So, this is the Malachi Tony market is what I call it. Just give the ball to the little guy and let him run with it. You know what I'm saying? >> Shout shout out to Tony. >> I did this on >> You got to get him on the show. >> I would love to. I I don't know what we would talk about, >> but go talk about this. I'll make the case. Uh for this ratio, the Russ the 2000 versus the large ones. >> That's going dude. It's working. >> This is This So, you know how you said asset prices trend? This one oscillates. >> It does. >> The Russell sucks. >> No, the relative ratio >> sucks everybody in. >> I'm talking about a relative ratio. >> No, I know. I'm just saying. Small caps suck everybody in periodically and then they roll. >> Is it going to stick this time? >> Yeah. >> I think I think so. You want to walk through? >> Given how bearish I am, it'll probably stick. >> I think this might be the time. I really do. >> I hope I hope it should. >> Well, why don't we do a some of the parts analysis of that? >> So, let's look at the index. Look at this base. >> Yeah. >> This thing has done nothing since the end of 21. >> Think of the base. You got one of these. Another one of these. >> JC, bigger the base. What do we say? >> The bigger the bass, the higher in space. >> Louise, >> is that funny? >> I know. It's I I like it. >> So, I asked Alan Shaw, rest in peace, before he passed. I'm like, where did you learn that? Cuz Luis Yamada says she learned it from Alan Shaw. And Alan Shaw was older. And I'm like, Alan Swag, isn't it? >> No, you before, dude. Alan Shaw is like a zillion years old. And he learned it from his predecessors, and he started in the 50s. So, his predecessors were trading in the 30s and 40s, and they taught him that. >> Wow. So, this has to go way back, >> huh? That's wild. >> I did the homework. I did the due diligence, right? So, uh, small cap's going up, and this is not oscillate, Josh. Uh, look at this long-term chart. This is from the lower left to the upper right, bro. >> Yeah. Uh, I think I I meant like relative to the S&P. Like, there are times the Russell outperforms, but it doesn't last long. >> I guess we'll see. >> Relatively, >> because look look at put up the communist ones. So, these guys discriminate, right? Because you can get they'll in the Russell 2000 they'll let anybody in. But in the S&P 600 you got to be making money. >> Yeah. How dare they? >> Only profitable. >> Yeah. You got to be making money. >> You get more financials in the 600 I think. >> So what's hilarious about fundamental analysis is that the the ones with the Russell 2000 that you don't need earnings. You could be losing a fortune. Don't matter. You're in. They're doing a lot better than the companies that are only in if they're making money. So if you're only buying good companies, you're missing out on the best performers. >> Yeah. >> Good companies. Right. And then you could just look at the um comp the composition. You're getting uh you're getting you're getting a little more healthare uh and you're getting less uh industrials a little bit on the Russell 2000, but relatively comparable. So I just wanted to show that you're getting uh a lot more consumer discretionary in the S&P 600. >> You're Russell 2000 is for the bigger small biotechs. Look, it's 19% biotech healthcare, which is mostly >> like profitless or barely profitable biotech. >> Yeah, >> it's it's uh 18% in the S&P 600 banks. >> Yeah. >> So, makes sense. Uh >> let me say and banks is still pretty big in the Russell 2000. >> Josh always says it's only regionals. >> Let's do some Let's do some of the parts. Let's do some of the parts. So, first of all, this is the S the small cap momentum index making alltime highs. >> Okay. >> Okay. Okay, so this is not bearish, right? These are the momentum names doing well. That tends to happen in healthy market environments. Now go to the industrials. All-time highs for small cap industrials, all-time highs for small cap materials, right? Alltime highs for small cap technology. So when people are telling you that small cap stocks aren't working, maybe your small cap stocks aren't working, but clearly small cap stocks are working. We can keep going. And then you know the small cap financials like you said, come on. Is there a more important base in the stock market right now than this one? >> How how how does this one resolve? >> Way to go, right? Way higher. >> Look at what are the other ones doing? >> Time out. What the hell is a small cap financial >> regionals? >> That's it. >> There's 260 of them. It's >> not even like sub region like Thrifts. >> Like community banks. >> It's a lot of small banks. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> There's some there's some other things mixed in there that are a little bit lost, but it's banks. >> It's Jackson Financial Lincoln National. >> I own I think I own I think Kinsale is is in this group. >> Hyper Sandler, Ste. We know these names. >> We know some of these. All right, I want to dive in there. >> Uh, you also got a couple hundred biotechnology stocks. Biotech hitting the highest level since 2021. Healthcare big. >> I don't like to I don't like to trade charts biotech given the the nature of the tape bombs, good and bad. Just, you know what I mean? Like, >> but if you filter by companies that are above a billion dollars, >> it's different. >> You're eliminating a lot of that risk. And if you if you put together a basket of B, you should see my portfolio over the last year. You would think I'm some kind of scientist or something like >> and we got the stock >> like like uh I feel like Dave Chappelle. Yes. Scientist, you know. Um so and then look at discretionary. Look at that base and discretionary. This is small cap discretionary looks great. And then look at small cap energy, right? And then I want to dive into energy before we hop for the day. >> Okay. >> So this is uh I remember where I was in the summer of 2008 the last time energy was here. >> I know, dude. This is like I can't imagine this not being V trade of 2026. >> You and me were a beast. >> This will not be on any magazine cover anytime soon. >> I'm waiting for it, man. I'm waiting for it. Has >> that'll be the end. That'll be >> We got an Iran economist today. Does that count? >> I I can't imagine this not being the the gold of 26. >> Look at that base, bro. >> I know. >> By the way, gold looks just like this before it broke out. >> I'm I'm telling you I'm telling you that I'm bowled up on oil and gas. >> Here you go. >> Let me see. Yeah. So, I'm long this stock, Exxon. >> Come on. >> It's going to I mean, I I just I don't I don't understand how it's not 150 already. >> I I know it moves slowly. It's a very big stock and moves slowly. >> It's a big company. >> Okay. What else? >> Um >> uh oil services. Look at it trying to get above those 02 lows. >> I'm going to pitch you an oil service name in a minute. Okay. >> All right. >> Yeah. >> Um and then look at the relative ratio. >> Yeah. >> Between XLE and the S&P 500. >> Yep. >> Right. The S the energy versus tech looks very similar. >> Looks very good. And then here's here's one I like. I'm long this one. This is Solaris Energy. >> What do they do? I'm just I'm just kidding. I know you don't know. >> Who cares? >> Allegedly, they're in the oil and gas space. Um but uh I don't know. Maybe it's a Ponzi scheme. I don't know. >> I have no idea. Why would I know? >> Okay. All right. >> I mean, they're doing something right. How many energy stocks do you know that look like this? >> Uh not a lot, >> right? >> The refiners look like that. >> Oh, they they look good. And then so this chart comes from Macro Charts. Um great shout out to Macro. He's a great follow across the board. >> Where is that? >> This who's Macro Charts? >> Yeah, >> he's anonymous. Uh but he's basically like the consili to like a bunch of like big hedge funds. Like he's he's the real deal. >> Okay. >> So this is a chart from him. This is the oil silver ratio going back to the >> strong buy. Strong buy cuz people are talking about silver. Oh, did you know that transistor chips require a certain amount of silver? Okay. So, if that's why you're really bullish on silver, then you can buy oil here. That's that's that's if that's like really the story. >> I think this is a interesting way to look at things that if you're if you're bullish of energy, this is a this is a >> What do you think of this? >> I forgot to put this in the dock. So, I grabbed one chart from Todd, our boy Todd Zone. Look at how hilarious this is. Uh Todd said, "This one's for the Djens. It's the ProShares Ultra Short Silver." So obviously this thing has been going vertically down, >> right? It's crashing. But but normally nobody buys this. Like there's no volume until people are trying to call the top desperately in silver. >> Desperately. >> Desperately. Like that's a dope chart. >> Throw up the silver. >> I got a thing. >> God damn. >> So this guy this got a $100 roll. >> Yeah. >> $100 roll written all over. >> I think that'll happen. >> All right. So um let's play >> and then and then what? >> Let's play perma bear. All right. So what? Okay. So what's going to change all this? What's going to change? Precious metals. was going to change this massive international >> dollar break out higher. >> So we came into the year looking for a break down in the dollar, right? Long euro, long British pounds, long Swissy, long emorex, and that worked out great. If if the dollar >> last year, >> last year, if the dollar breaks out above 100, I think that that's a I think that's a problem. And we're starting to see a few cracks. And not every crack needs to turn into a market crash, but every major bare market >> I was going to say that could give you like the correction that or the or the dip that hasn't happened yet. >> Every crash, every correction starts with a crack or two. Here's a couple discretionary staples not making new highs with the S&P making new highs. Uh the Magnificent 7 hitting new fourmonth lows today on a relative basis. So if you're looking for a culprit for this particular cycle, that would be it. And then here's the Frankenstein, right? So this is the last chart. So this is the Frankenstein trade where the bonds have never been more dead. Literally dead and stocks like that, right? >> We talked about this the other day. Vanguard put something out saying the right portfolio asset allocation for this year is 40 stocks, 60 treasuries. And I can't believe I can't remember ever hearing them say that. And I didn't even bother to track down what the rationale was. But just that idea that like somebody's even saying that is interesting to me. So >> that's weird. >> They're not looking at the charts. They obviously have another reason that they're saying >> we're going into a midterm year. We're in a midterm year. The worst of the four year cycles. Even though technically >> that's what Vanguard's looking at. >> Technically when it's the second term the cy Joe Davis. >> Yeah, he's a midterm cycle. I'm kidding. >> Year six year six for second term is not as bad. It's actually pretty good. But nevertheless, midterm year historically not great. So one can argue what should we be looking out for for things changing? I think that that discretionary staples ratio I think tech underperforming >> dollar rally >> dollar rally and I think bonds waking up because if there the look at how boring bonds have been over the last years >> dollar rally forget about the implications for stocks that's really bad for people that are chasing silver here >> I think it's bad for international stock investors I think it's bad for silver precious metals rocks in general of any kind whether to be of the precious or base variety >> can we go back to the previous chart so I think this is really interesting. The Apple the Mac 71. I think up until now people were waiting for like the dot divergence where you see the rest of the market and only the mag seven are the ones that are left standing and then of course we know what happens next. It would be interesting if it's the reverse of time if the leaders go first and now they pass the baton to the rest of the market and it's like a sort of fake handoff and then they all come tumbling down together. Maybe that would catch every that would catch me off sides. I mean that would be interesting >> if the dollar's above a hundred. I think that's a big problem. If you start to see volatility pick up in the bond market, that's a big problem. You know, generally the trend is up for stocks. Like we want to be buying stocks, you want to be buying breakouts. And I don't necessarily think it's a binary outcome where like, oh, everything's going to get crushed. I think this is going to be a K-shaped market. Look what I see what I did there. Come on. Come on. That's pretty pretty good, huh? Pretty good. We like the K. >> So, I think that rather than 2025 everything went up. Some went up more than others. I think we could be very high likelihood that in 2026 we could have huge winners, huge losers, and some that kind of just trade flat. I think that would be a very high likelihood. >> That's what AI is doing. I agree. >> I think most investors be okay with that as long as they think they're going to be the ones that are in the ones that work. >> Be selfish, right? >> Hey, what a tour to force, ladies and gentlemen. JC Pretty. >> Thank you. And uh we will include a link in the description so people can check out your slides, Drazza's slides from stock market summit >> because we did we went out we did hours. I mean Josh and Batnik and myself we could be here all night but they got things to do. I got nothing to do but they got things to do. >> Do you have your brokerage account open and logged in? >> Uh no. >> All right. I'm going to pitch you some stocks. You might want to buy a couple of them. >> Oh, I'm gonna talk to my wife. >> No, I'm not pitching you, but I just want to get your take on these. Um Sean and I keep a list of the best stocks in the market. You know what we're looking for. Uh the general idea is we buy strength. We're not looking we're not looking for reversals and pieces of [ __ ] We're not um bottom fishing. >> Is that on the fact sheet? >> Yeah. We're not uh storytelling. Uh we're not listening to conference calls. Um it's not that we don't care. It's that that's not the selection criteria. Okay. >> So might have a personal interest in learning why a stock is going up, but it doesn't start there. Okay. Um >> I want to show you a couple and just hear what you think. It doesn't really matter what I think uh of the technicals themselves. Morgan Stanley's been on best stocks in the market list, I think, consistently since the summer. Um it's probably been a good seven, eight months, >> man. >> And it is just the move today is obviously earnings driven. So, let's assume a little bit of this today's move fades. I This is as good of an uptrend as I've seen in this stock since I started doing this 30 years ago. Like you normally don't see stocks like consistently for that long of a period of time sitting above the 50-day. >> Look how well look how well behaved. Look how well behaved this is. And um it's not that there haven't been like rough weeks, but like this this stock has given no one any reason to sell it whatsoever if they're just focused on price. What are your thoughts? >> I mean financials in general have been a monster, right? European financials, um, Japanese financials, >> US money center banks, >> all of them just absolutely ripping. So, it's more about the group that it's in and less about the stock itself. >> You know, >> I agree. These don't these don't really separate that much from each other. Large cap US financials, they tend to do what they're all doing. I agree with that for the most part. >> Yeah. I mean, you know, >> this one's not your favorite. >> It's not that it's not my favorite, it's that they're all kind of like this, right? Where like they're extended. You know, look at Bank of New York Melon. absolutely ripping. Look at all these European banks. I mean, the trend is up. And for me, it's less about trading Morgan Stanley and more about thinking about the implications. You know, if these financials are up, not just the United States, but globally. Like, I'm old school. Like, I came up in the 2000s. I was there for the great financial crisis. We don't have bull markets in America without financials. And in the rest of the world, it's even more egregious when you look at the holdings of the companies in those indexes. So, like >> I look at an MSJC and I just in my mind, well, how do they make money? They have everything in their favor. There are IPOs. There's M&A. >> The FTC isn't saying no to anything unless Trump wants to get something for himself out of it. Um, so there's deals all over the place. You could bring companies public. Asset management revenues are ripping because asset prices are at record highs. Um, they make money as a as a treasury bond dealer. I think they're in that business. um net interest margin, spread businesses like uh proprietary trading, fixed income, commodities, currencies. There's nothing they don't make money from. Uh there's nothing that they're involved in that's not doing well right now. And >> I would say I would say 189 is a big number there. Big lot of lot of market memory there going back, you know, >> John GS >> to the great financial crisis highs. So, if we start falling back below 189 and kind of holding below there, that could start to turn into a problem. But if you're above 189, I mean, this another 50% higher. Why not? >> Basically the same chart. Goldman Sachs. >> Yeah. >> Um Morgan Stanley's been an easier ride. You've had some trend line violations here along the way. I just think that's the nature of it being a higher baited name than Morgan Stanley, at least these days. But like huge winner. >> Same trade. >> Same trade. Okay, I'm with you. All right, I group these together. >> Yeah, the trend the trends are not are not down. >> Here's a question. Next ne next chart. You can't buy this with a straight face, right? >> Why? >> I don't know. I can't I So, this KLA, this has been on the best stocks in the market list for a while. Uh we wrote it up a few months back. It's been like a a massive home run. This is because this is a this is parabolic to me. What do you think? You can't you can't buy this stuff. >> No, I cannot. >> No way. Um, does the presence of a gap like that bother you? >> Uh, no. >> That's a baby gap. >> Would it stop you from that that would not be the thing that would stop you from from pushing by on on a KLA? >> No. I'm looking at like 15 and a quarter. If we're above 15 and a quarter, I think you're fine. You know, that gap is just evidence of, you know, uh, relentless uh, buying pressure. People are like, "Oh, JC, it's overbought." It's like, well, how could an overwhelming amount of buying pressure possibly be a bad thing? I don't know. I don't understand. >> This is reacting to Taiwan semi news today. That's why it gapped today. >> It can be a bad it can be a bad thing in the very short term, but who cares? >> Semiconductors are making all-time highs on a relative basis. So, the fact that you're putting up a semiconductor stock that's making a new high, like it better be. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I agree with that. Uh, next one. >> Do it. >> Here's another one. We've we've been we've been writing about this one all year. Lamb Research, LRCX. Uh, not as parabolic as KLA, but basically the same the same chart. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean like what do you want me to tell you? I mean it's a bull market. >> The question is can you hit buy on a new trade in in this stock today or you would not do that? >> I mean I wouldn't today because that's not how I trade. It doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Like 236 is a big one here. You know this goes back to the dot bubble highs. 236 is a big one. So if you could >> you're looking at 25 year charts right now. Yeah. All of these all of these stocks were like also part of the original.com bubble. Me and Leonardo Fibonacci the pizza are getting down right now on this laptop. You know what I'm saying? You know, 236 is the big one. 381 is next. So, if it could stick that 236, yeah, it could keep going higher, but you know, expect volatility. I mean, this thing's going to be down 10% in two days >> for no reason. >> For no reason in a week, easy, you know, >> and it'll shake out the type of people who bought today without even thinking about it. >> That's right. >> All right, next group. Uh, here's CBRE. In 45 minutes, I'm gonna go pitch this with Sean at the New York Stock Exchange. I'm not going to tell you the fundamental story. It's commercial real estate, which everyone which everyone obviously hates and thinks is a worthless asset class, and this stock doesn't give a [ __ ] what anyone thinks. >> And uh I love these types of setups where they're consolidating below resistance for a while and knocking on the door. Me, too. >> And it just to me, this is so obviously going to break through. It is the blue chip of the space. It's an asset light business in commercial real estate which is an asset heavy sector and they're going to treat it like a tech stock because they've transformed the whole business from brokerage transactional commissions to an ARR model. >> Can I tell you something? >> And the street loves these stories. >> I'm buying the stock today. How about that? You just convinced me. I love this chart. You like it? >> Yeah, I like it. 185 is coming. >> I'm buying this right now. >> All right. uh >> 185 and then after that >> I'm not front running the CNBC pro people because I I wrote it up this morning in the column >> 260 260 after 185. >> All right. I don't own it yet. I might pull the trigger too. First solar. Uh I don't know what to do with this. This stock's been on the best stocks in the market list. It still is. >> These stocks are so >> these are so for me these are so hard to um figure out where to enter, where to exit. But I this think about it if while we're on the subject of 25 year charts. >> No solar stocks ever. >> Like no solar stocks ever because you lost money in Nphase. >> Uh no. But >> that wasn't good though. >> No dude. Bro, this chart these >> dude. Bro, >> dude, if you're going to do Chinese solar go like you're either going to go full >> or tan or tan the ETF. >> Fine. You ever make money you ever make JC you ever make money in solar stocks? >> Yes. >> And I've lost money too. I mean I've traded everything over the years but check out array. But what do you what is the technical read? Somebody shows you this chart on a on a trading desk. What do you what do you what's your what's your answer to them? There's nothing here. >> It's a mess. >> It's a mess, right? >> Yeah, it's a messy. I like a ray better. >> So, I can't bring myself to write this one because it just looks it looks weird. All right, I have uh uh one more pair. >> Wait, hang on. What does CBR do before I buy it? I don't care. >> Great. Uh one more pair of stocks. Oil services. This is Baker Hughes. I love this break. I love this breakout. >> I want to buy this, too. >> Look at the look at the long term on Baker Hughes. This seems like pretty momentous above 50. >> Can't this go to 100 bucks? >> I mean, are they still counting rigs? >> Do you Forget about all that. Do you know that >> that's a thing that they do? >> Crude hasn't even rallied yet and this stock is breaking out. When crude goes, this stock really goes and >> Baker and not like Halle Burton. >> Well, that's my next chart. So, so >> Halleberry Here, here's how here's Hallebertton. Hallebertton's already already gone. >> And the Slumb, >> that's also on my list. They all >> go to this restaurant and order the Slumburger. >> No pickles. >> Do you like this bet? You like this Hallebertton better than Baker Hughes? >> I mean, I think I I like energy. I'm Long Energy. I'm getting more Long Energy, you know, oil services, you know, pick which one you like. They're probably going to move together. Higher Beta is going to move more. You know, if you want to get junky, go offshore driller, something like that. But like, you know, if you want to get in energy, you can get in energy. And there's a few ways to get the juice. You can either go down the cap scale and buy some junkier stuff or you can be in the derivatives market with the bigger names. You know, I think either way, >> I think the services names could all rip this year with a tiny bit of help from crude. >> Nobody owns them, >> but you need a much bigger move in crude in order for like the oil producers to make that kind of move. I think the services can just go because they're going to go >> and the refiners have been going but >> and they already broke up. >> Americans just Americans don't own it and I think that there's a squeeze to be had there, right? Because if everybody owns something, it's probably a little too late. The fact that the NASDAQ is 0% energy, S&Ps are 2% energy. Dow's 2% energy. How much less energy could these things be? >> Nobody owns it. >> Nobody's got them. >> Uh, last question. Totally off topic. I just was curious to get your thoughts on it and I forgot to text you. Can prediction markets be analyzed by technicians? >> They're just so illquid. >> Let's say they were more liquid. Let's say they became more popular and there was higher contract volume. Could you look at a yes no chart for any subject and determine um buyers versus sellers or levels? I mean levels. >> At the end of the It's not levels. At the end of the day, what are we doing as technical analysts, as technicians? We're analyzing. >> What are we doing? Oh, we're analyzing the behavior of the market. This >> kid's literally trading. >> I told you I was behind it. >> I'm in CB. >> We're looking at the behavior of the market and market participants. So, if these prediction markets didn't suck so much and they weren't just a bunch of glorified penny stocks. At least the penny stock people tell you that they're penny stocks. These people are like, "Oh, it's the prediction markets." No, you'reing gambling like an idiot, right? Like idiots gamble. >> So, oh, so you're not a fan. >> No, it's not that I'm a fan is that they're nothing. It's an irrelevant penny stocks scam. Like it's not anything. you know, um, Thomas Patter came on Halime Report last week and wanted to debate me. Uh, the founder of Interactive Brokers. Brilliant, brilliant man. Uh, great man. >> Yeah. >> Um, he wanted to debate me. It turns out we didn't really disagree. He had made a statement that he thinks prediction markets will become larger than the securities market. >> Yeah, I heard that. >> I said, >> both the people both said that. >> I said I don't think so. Not because there's no merit to prediction markets. I think the binary nature of them people will lose money and lose interest very quickly. >> You remember binary options? >> Well, yeah. I mean, is is >> they're just rebranding that that was a scam and a lot of people lost money and people went to prison. This is >> what was the binary options thing? What what >> exactly? >> I I totally forgot. I remember the term, but I forgot what people were trading. >> You know, everybody's in >> they're buying up down on a stock. >> Everybody's every it's it's the outcome. It was a binary outcome and that was what the option was and then they canceled all that because people were trying to manipulate that. No, I don't. But Josh's point is >> they're going to say that about the prediction markets. Remember the prediction market? >> No, it's not going away. But people don't I people do not like all or nothing outcomes because with the stock, if you're wrong, you could take all right, I'll take I'll >> I'm an investor now. As a trader, now I'm an investor. >> No, no. I my max loss is 8% and that's it. With the prediction outcomes, for the most part, not for the most part, unless you're buying and selling like unless you're trading them, you're right or you're wrong. You make money, you lose money. >> Well, there's no assets, so there's no liquidity. There's nothing there. It's a fugazi. Like look at the stock market. >> It's positive sum. >> $70 trillion in the stock market and the pie is growing. >> There's like a couple OF HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS. ALL THE PREDICTION MARKETS COMBINED. >> WELL, they just started. >> So why does he think >> it's irrelevant? So Interactive Brokers launched obviously every other brokerage launched prediction markets. So I understand like being promotional about it. I wonder and I wish I got to ask him but it's TV so I had like 20 seconds. I wonder why he thinks that binary bets are going to become a bigger market than the securities markets which includes bonds that why would that happen? >> First of all, the CEO of Koshi said the same thing. But the point is is that >> of course of course he did. >> If you're the CEO of a company, your job is not and I don't know I don't know this guy that you said you were going to fight or whatever. I don't know any of these people. No fighters. He's a legend. He's a legend. He owns 90% of the equity of Interactive. >> I'm sure he loves his kids. My point is is that that's not the point. The CEO of a company is their job is to make money for shareholders, right? So if going on TV and telling the whole world that this penny stock market is going to be bigger than the entire stock market, THAT'S WHAT HIS JOB IS. LIKE even if it's like the dumbest thing in the world, he's helping HIS SHAREHOLDERS AS HE >> 100% RIGHT. Guess guess right. What's a better business? commission free trading or taking a rake in the prediction markets. >> Way better. Uh I think it's interesting that Robin Hood is all in prediction markets. >> Vlad said it too. Vlad's super horny prediction. Never been hornier. He's he told us here on the show and then Schwab's like, "Nah, we're not we're not doing that. >> It's a fade all day." >> Yeah. >> It's the latest It's like the latest gimmick that like people that can't stay focused and they're chasing the next shiny thing. I told >> those are the types of people that are chasing. I said flat, I think everybody's drunk on this stuff. Like, I don't think it's going away. I think it's going to grow, but it is it the way that we're talking about it is so insane in my opinion. >> I think it'll be very very niche. I think it'll be very niche and it'll be a lot of fun to watch like people bet on things and watch the election stuff especially. I can't imagine it becoming like a gigantic market. I just maybe I'm an idiot and will laugh at me in 3 years. I think I'm more on your side. For the record, I hope that you and I are idiots and we're dead wrong because that would be cool. But these are glorified penny stocks with no liquidity and if you are gambling on these things instead of actually owning assets, I think in my humble opinion that you're aing [ __ ] right? And anybody who's telling you to bet instead of investing, >> don't hold back. Don't hold back. Say what you really feel. All right, ladies. >> I hope I'm wrong, >> ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for Thank you for joining us on this edition of the compound and friends. I would like to uh give a huge thanks to our friend JC Perez. JC's research can be found at trendlabs.com. JC personally can be followed on x.com. It's x.com/jc_parx. We have to work on that. We got It's no good. We got to fix that. All right. And you're on LinkedIn. JC Prett CMT as in charge of market technician. Anywhere else people should be going? >> Only fans, right? >> Only fans. Yeah. Um and follow me on the polymarket.com. I got my profile in there. >> That's right. And if you're anywhere within the vicinity of the national championship game on Monday, you will probably be able to hear JC cheering for uh the >> There's other loud, obnoxious Cubans there, by the way. I know >> I'm not the only one. >> All right, guys. Thank you so much for listening. Thanks for watching. We'll see you soon.
These Are the Stocks to Buy In 2026 | TCAF 225
Summary
On episode 225 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick …Transcript
You were so early to the commodity rally, >> dude. I said gold 5,000. People thought I wasing crazy. >> No, but even like last summer, commodities had been rallying, but not like this and they just they just exploded uh starting in the first of the year. It was like a brand new bull market just started for a lot of them. >> And here's the interesting part about commodities is that historically these bull markets don't just last a few quarters or a few years. They last 10, 20. >> Yeah. >> So, if you're if you're betting this is over, then you're betting that this is the shortest commodity super cycle ever. Who's your boy that did the chart yesterday? Uh, is it Alfonso that did the gold to stock chart and it looks like it might be breaking out? >> Oh, yeah. >> You know what I'm talking about? Of course. It's a great chart. >> Gold Dow. I think that was Rick. Slick Rick. >> Okay. >> We got this uh this Lebanese Mexican dude. >> Really? >> Slick Rick. He's the man. >> He does commodities only or >> No, he just does everything, dude. He's like overlaying tech with like the Israeli shekele. Like this guy's >> He's a Lebanese Mexican. Yeah, they got those. >> Yeah. Lebanese Mexicans. Yeah. >> You got a lot of talented people on your roster. >> Thank you. I agree. >> How's uh how's Kenny doing? >> Dude, Kenny is a legend. >> I love Kenny. He showed up. He showed up on the morning show today with no shirt on. >> Right. Just like this like 1970s disco shirt and his chest hair all sticking out. >> He had Oh, like a jacket with no shirt under. >> Right. >> Wait, for the audience, not everybody knows Kenny. Kenny, right? If you don't know Kenny, >> Kenny Kenny Glick, aka Kung Fu Kenny, uh, aka Hit the Bid. Wait, he's like he's like, uh, >> Jefferson Crawl. >> Jefferson Crawl. >> He was like he was like Davy Day Trader before like way back in the day, but like >> I was going to say that, >> but who but he actually knows stocks. Like he was is the funniest person on camera talking about stocks. >> 100%. is the grandfather of day trading because think about that because day trading didn't exist until Kenny got on the scene. Kenny was there day one. He's the grandfather. >> He invented day trading. >> No, he's a mid to late 1990s vintage day trader. They don't make them They don't make them like that. >> They don't make them like that. You can't >> And most of those guys have not >> Does he still day trade? >> Right. That's my point. >> Does he still day trades >> every day, >> dude? If you still have capital and and you're doing it like late 90s style, you figured something out. >> Well, he only he trades the only intraday strategy I've ever seen work, which is you're fading rallies and you're uh and you're buying dips, particularly after earnings, they cross the one day anchored VWAP, and then that's your risk. >> Is it like is it like a 20 minute strategy or >> um well, it's you're looking at a one minute anchored VWAP, right? And then as soon as it gets above that and it mean reverts up on a sell-off, you're in. And then on a on a on a rally, you're fading the break down. >> That's got to be good for your blood pressure. >> I mean, listen, most trades are in the first half an hour of the day. So, >> you're the world's I tried day trading in like 98. I was the world's worst. I do not have the temperament for that. >> Yeah. And I was one of those guys where I'd get into a trade and then it would start going against me and all the three guys around me were like, "Dude, that's you're you got to sell it now." I'm like, "No." I start reading about the fundamentals of the company. >> They said, "I don't think you understand what we're doing here. >> This is ticks, bro. This is not about being right." And that doesn't sit well with me. I sort of I sort of can't operate that way. >> We've known each other for 20 years and you're still like, "Oh, yeah. You like that stock? Why?" >> Yeah. No, you know, >> cuz I think I could sell IT AT A HIGHER PRICE. What do you mean why? >> It's this is You know what? It's not a character flaw. It's due to my superior intellect. I have to have the the reasoning behind everything. >> Yeah. >> Even if it's fake, I still need something. >> You sound like one of these like old angry macro perma bears. >> You know, I'm [ __ ] 48 and I'm a perma bull. >> No, I know. I know. The things No, no, but the things you're saying like how you're speaking, obviously you're being sarcastic, but like those angry perma bulls actually do think that. >> Angry per angry perma bulls. Bears. >> Perma bears. >> Yeah. That that that you know that their intellect is so far superior than the market. >> Dude, I'm joking. >> Just for as long as you as long have you known Josh. Have you noticed that every single year he says I'm effing this age? I remember when he was like, "Dude, I'm 38 years old. I'm tired for that. I'm 41 years old. I'm tired for that. I'm getting too old for this shit." >> Yeah. But now as you're getting older, you're like, "Oh, you know, he was right." >> I've never said I've never I've never said those words out loud. I'm X years old. Yes, but there are things that you now acknowledge that you're too old for. >> Like I >> feel good. I'm still feeling good. >> I feel great, but I'm too old for for games. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's >> What kind of games? >> Like games people play with each other. I don't I don't play games with people. I thought about like Call of Duty. I don't play that anymore. >> No, no, no, no, no. Like I don't do I don't do group texts. I remove myself from like I'm like in five group texts. I used to be in 50. >> I used to be I used to be in group text with people from college. At a certain point, it's like are we even talking about anymore? >> 48. What is this even about? >> No, but you want to know something about Josh is that, you know, he gave me a lot of advice over the years because he was like ahead of the game. Like he had his kids before me. Like he was just a little bit older in not just in age but in other things too. And it's like all the things that dads tell you all are true, right? Like you know as you become a dad, I mean my oldest is five, the twins are three. So like but all the things that you ever said, >> remember I used to tell you let me say let me say this like 10 years ago. You'd be like, "Yo, what up? I'm in Manhattan. What are we doing?" I'm like, "I'm I'm like, I'm taking I'm taking the train home and taking my kid to little league." And you're like, "Oh, I I respect that. That makes sense. How many days a week do you do that?" I'm like, "Pretty much 5 days a week." >> And you're like, "Really?" >> I'm like, "Just you wait." And now you're in the [ __ ] >> That's right. >> You're in the [ __ ] for real. >> No, it's all good. You know some of you >> I know. It's the best time of your life. >> You want to know one of the best pieces of advice you ever gave me? >> Right. This is a good one cuz I think about this a lot. >> Buy six flags at four and a quarter. >> Yeah. Well, it was it was three and a half. It was like three and a half, but that's another story. It tripled. I thought I was Warren Buffett. Um, it was just Josh getting lucky as it turns out. But, uh, so, so I walked into Josh's office one day and I was like, you know, I can't like screw anything in. I can't hang a picture on the wall. Like, I'm such an idiot. Like, I can't do any of this stuff. And Josh goes, "Let me stop you right there. You go, you provide, and you you hire people to do all that [ __ ] Don't worry about it." And I'm like, "Yeah." He's like, "Yeah, yeah. Go make money. Don't worry about it. I'm like, "Oh, okay. >> Let me tell you." So, I think about this [ __ ] all the time. >> What was the alternative? You going to go to carpentry school? >> Well, I'm in my early 20s, so like I don't know anything. So, like now in hindsight, I'm like, "Yeah, I'm noting doing that." Josh says just pay somebody to do it. >> Your time is better spent reading, writing, researching, talking to people. Candlestick. >> Your time is not well spent learning how to screw in a light bulb. So, >> thank you. >> You're welcome. You're welcome. >> How is Disney? >> Listen, it's a It can't be a bare market, man. Talking $15 hot dogs, bro. >> $15 hot dogs. >> Go to Vegas. $30. $30 hot dogs. >> I was just there. $30 peanuts in the room. >> I had a $16 Subway sandwich. So offensive. >> That's gross. >> In New York, bro. >> So, no, in Vegas. >> The last time I was in The Last time I was in Vegas was with JC and Fami and went we went to um Pieros >> and a week later somebody tried to blow the restaurant up. >> Are you serious? >> Uhhuh. >> I love Vegas. I didn't send you that link. >> No. >> Somebody somebody in the middle of the night went went and lit the the restaurant on fire. >> So, I swear to God, a week after we went there, >> Wow. >> This place was like a little DL. Like, I could see how that would happen there. >> It's Pieros was in one of the scenes with Sharon Stone and uh Deniro in casino. >> Get him. >> Not that one. The other one. >> Dude, that place was good. >> Yeah. Yeah, it was it was legit. >> That scene where he's shaking the table. >> Uh yeah. Not the one where he busts her with Lester's, but maybe the one where she's like really >> I wouldn't do that. >> All right, let's get the show on the road. We got things to do. >> All right, you know the drill. >> All right, thank you, John. What episode is this, my friend? This is coming. Today's show is sponsored by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, and crypto. And now, generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year-over-year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities. Completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com/compound and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com/compound. Paid for by public investing. Full disclosure in podcast description. Hey quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, you are now rocking with the best investing podcast on God's Green Earth, episode 225. Super blessed. Cole Gang is here. Daniel is back. John's in the house. Duncan, Nicole, fan favorite, returning champion making his I've lost count appearance on the Compounded Friends. Y'all give it up for JC Parz. You hear it? Your head's broken. All right. All right, guys. Uh JC is the founder and chief technician of Trend Labs, a technical analysis focused research platform. JC also authors Everybody's Wrong, where he delivers charts and actionable ideas on a daily basis. JC, welcome back to the show. >> Thank you guys. My favorite show to do in the whole world. Number one, easy. >> We're really excited to have you here. So, uh, today's going to be fun because I know you have a bunch of charts that we're going to take a look at. And then I'm going to show you some charts that you may either like or be offended by. I'm not sure yet. Uh, but we'll do yours first. >> If you bring me an arithmetic scale price chart, I'm going to throw it at you. >> Something tells me I'm already in trouble. All right. Uh, I did want to Can Am I Can I play uh I could play an Instagram, right, John? >> Yep. >> All right. All right. >> Play an Instagram. >> Yeah. That's not That's all the kids, >> dude. He's 40. He really is for you. >> Is this working? >> Oh [ __ ] >> Who even uses Instagram? >> I don't know if it's work. Oh, wait. I got it. I got it. I got it. Hold on. >> The whole long-term capital management. I hope most of you are familiar with it. But the the whole story is really fascinating because if you take John Merryweather and Eric Rosenfeld, Larry Hill and Brand, Greg Hawkins, Victor Gani, >> smart men, >> the two Nobel Prize winners, Merton Scholes. If you take the 16 of them that they probably have as high an average IQ as any 16 people working together in one business in the country including at Microsoft or or wherever you want to name. So there incredible amount of intellect in that room. Now you combine that with the fact that those 16 had had extensive experience in the field they were operating. I mean this this was not a bunch of guys who had made their money you know selling men's clothing and then all of a sudden went into the securityities business or anything. They'd had they they'd had in aggregate the 16 that probably had 350 or 400 years of experience doing exactly what they were doing. And then you throw in the third factor that most of them had virtually all of their very substantial net worths in the business. So they had their own money up, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of their own money up, super high intellect, working in a field they knew, and essentially they went broke. And that to me is absolutely fascinating. I mean, I I if if I ever write a book, it's going to be called Why Smart People Do Dumb Things. >> My partner says that it should be autobiographical, but >> quite a this might be an interesting illustration. And these are perfectly decent guys. I you know, I I I I respect them and they helped me out when I was had problems with Solomon. And >> so they they're not bad people at all. >> But to make money they didn't have and didn't need, they risked what they did have and did need. And that's foolish. That is shift plane foolish. >> All right, that's the goat. That's the goat. >> That's the goat. Uh Warren Buffett commenting on long-term capital markets. >> Uh long-term capital management, which was a prominent hedge fund that blew up in the late 1990s. And uh I think there's like I think there's a lot in there, a lot to that. Um the first big idea is these are literally the smartest people there are working in money management. These are Nobel Prize winners, theoreticians, professional traders, asset managers, pickers. >> It's a whole room and a whole room full of them. >> Whole It's not even like one one guy making an error. It's a whole committee. I think there's a lesson in there that blowups can happen and they probably will happen the more arrogant people are about what they think they're they're good at is one. And then that second part like needless risk risking risking they all of them were multi multi multi-millionaires at the time that they were putting on the trades that melted down. What what are your thoughts? >> You know I think it gets back to something that thank God I understood is that you don't have to be smarter than everybody else. You just have to be slightly less stupid. >> So that's number one. It's about understanding the flaws that we have as human beings so that we don't fall victim to a lot of the mistakes that other people do. Right? We have to understand the way the human mind works. We have to understand those emotions when they come, recognize it, laugh about it, and then not do anything about it, not act upon those emotions. Now there's a second element to that which is where I come in where not only are we recognizing our own human behaviors but we are taking advantage of the fact that all the other humans not only do they don't know that they have those human flaws they don't even care to know and they're just living their lives but us as investors we can exploit their flaws for our own selfish endeavors so that we can make money for ourselves. But does but does be is there a such thing as being overly aware of those emotions and then having that be a limiting factor where you don't take enough risk or you don't trust your instinct enough because you might say to yourself, "Oh, here I go again. My hubris." Yeah. >> And then a huge winning trade goes by because you were so busy self-deprecating. Isn't that like also a thing? >> I mean, we could talk about precious metals over the last few months and every day it goes up another 4% and I'm like, "Oh my god." like there's no way this can keep going. Meanwhile, I haven't sold a single precious metal stock. >> Okay? >> Right? Because it hasn't hit our target, right? So, it goes back to pred nailing down what you're going to do so that you're completely eliminating your brain from the situation. You're just following the plan. So, what I think this morning or yesterday doesn't matter. I'm like, dude, there's no way this is going to keep going up. Oh, okay. Well, it doubled after I said that. So, you know, it doesn't matter what I think, right? Just follow the plan. Stick to the plan. So, I think that that's a big thing. And in terms of like, you know, an overabundance of information, you know, there's a specific groups that you want to fade. You want to fade. And if you could throw up slide one. Sure. >> Uh the new slide one. I just added another slide cuz we didn't have enough. Um you you want to fade. Uh >> I love this. >> All right. Why don't we get into this and I'll tell you what the four fade groups are. So you're talking about smart people blowing themselves up in 1998. Well, Isaac Newton, I don't know, pretty freaking smart. Uh he blew himself up, too. And for the same reasons that humans are blowing themselves up today. It has nothing to do with intelligence or that Isaac Newton was the man. He's a human at the end of the day. So what happens? >> Isaac Newton was the man. >> He was the man. >> I think I think >> I think scholars believe that he was one of the 10 smartest people who ever lived. >> Yeah. >> So okay, very important. >> So nobody's going to argue, nobody's going to say, "Oh, that guy was an idiot." Right? No, he's just a human, right? So what happened? So he starts This is the uh South Sea stock back in the day. If you don't know the story, uh go learn about the story. uh just one of the great bubbles uh of all time. So, I'm not we're not going to go into the bubble. The point is he starts buying it, right? Uh then he quickly doubles his money. Isaac Newton, >> this is in se 1718 for the for for the people not looking at the chart. >> This is the roaring 20s of the 1700s. >> 1700s, right? >> So, uh Isaac Newton doubles his money. Nice trade. Not bad, ISAAC. NOT BAD, BRO. RIGHT. And then, you know what I'm saying? Nice little double. And then all of a sudden, what happens? >> Newton's neighbors are getting rich. They're still in it. And now he's got the FOMO. He's like, "Bro." >> So he doubles. He's out. And then the people around him that he knows he's smarter than are making even more money. That will make you insane. >> Yeah. >> And so he's like, "You know what? The hell with it. I'm in." >> Oh my god. >> At the top. And then he blew himself up. >> Yeah. Uh exits broke. We know that for sure. Yeah. >> Broke. You heard that story? There's that famous quote that is, I think, misattributed to him. Somebody said that I can calculate the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the crowd or madness of people. >> It's probably made up, but it's a perfect quote. It's a great quote. >> I don't think he actually said it. >> By the way, that chart kind of looks like silver a little bit. >> Yeah. Well, >> every up trend is going to look like that. Don't even go there with me. >> No, no, no. That's going That's not an uptrend. That's not an uptrend. That That's a vertical trend. >> Listen, >> that's parabolic. Is the message here? It does. This is not a contest of who's the smartest. That's number one, right? And then the number two is comparison. My gains versus someone else's gains. And oh [ __ ] I better catch up. >> Being too smart might even be uh a negative. >> I've seen a million examples. >> The midw the midw curve is real. >> Yeah. >> Um one thing that Buffett didn't mention in that video, and it's sort of besides the point, but also relevant. They were levered 250 to1. >> Probably like not a great recipe, >> but that's the arrogance. They wouldn't do they wouldn't do that if they weren't thinking to themselves, we have the whole machine figured out >> and like it's fixed income arbitrage. What can go wrong? Like these things don't really move that much until they do. >> That's right. >> Right. So, so there's a couple of components to it. It's like we know exactly what we're doing. Therefore, why 100 times leverage when we could be 200? Why 200? We could be 250. So, that's one thing. And the second thing is just like look at look at how brilliant we are. And the third thing is why are we push putting the pedal to the metal? do we really need to make this much money? And of course, none of them did at at the now they might. None of them did at the time. So, I I think those are really um crucial lessons for investors. And I just thought that was an interesting thing to see Buffett pointing that out. >> So, it's two things. It's the internal and the external. If you could throw up the slide, too. I just added one more. So, it's the internal and the external. >> Good luck today, John. >> No, no, that was it. That was it. So, you know, it's about recognizing our own flaws and then taking advantage of the others, right, for our own selfish gain. So to me there are four basic fade groups. You have sellside analysts, right? So they come with their own conflicts of interest. Of course, like you know, they're going to say something bad about a company, but they're working on an M&A deal, they're going to get a tap on the shoulder. And if you think that doesn't happen, I think you're crazy. So there's that. There's the career risk where, you know, if there are 30 analysts covering a stock and they're all bullish and you're not and you're wrong, you're going to be looking for a job, right? And it's not worth the career risk because little Timmy's private school and Martha's Botox and the country club and the whole thing. It's not worth it. >> Call it uh hurting >> hurting hurting mentality, right? Hurting is very strong. >> Safety in the in the >> 100%. So you have that. So we could take advantage of that for our own selfish endeavor. So you got the four uh you got the four uh is that me or is that you >> dude? Who's what are we doing here? >> Kids got tonsillitis. I don't know. >> Is this your first podcast? >> It might be. >> Amateur hour. All right. Right. Wall Street, right? Wall Street analyst, right? Great fade, particularly at consensus. Remember 3 years ago exactly coming into 23. Wall Street was at a consensus that the stock market was going to fall in 2023. As it turns out, the NASDAQ doubled instead. Right. Classic. It's a better signal when they're all bearish versus when they're all bullish. If they're all bullish, that's standard hurting. Yeah. Yeah. S&P is going to go up 8 to 10%. EVEN THOUGH IT NEVER DOES. >> THAT'S not the fade. The fade is when they're all bearish. Okay. It's asymmetric. It's not the same thing. Okay. I like that. uh asset managers. These are hedge funds, asset managers. These are historically the worst investors of all time. We have the data, right? So, >> how do you measure that? >> That makes perfect sense. >> What do you mean? >> Well, in the futures market in particular, right? So, you're seeing futures positioning, you're looking at the speculators, the asset managers when they're at a consensus do the opposite, right? Like for example, they had a historic net short position in Russell 2000 futures this summer. How'd that work out? Right. For example, uh but we can go it goes on it right now. >> Hedges though, >> no. Isn't it is it ever good if if they lose money in the Russell futures, maybe their hedge fun's there's a there's this thought process that hedge fund managers hedge. No, no, no. That's just a fugazi. They're they're in. >> Okay. So, those are concentrated bets, not hedges. >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Um asset managers fade them at consensus. Journalists because they're so good at their jobs, right? Journalists are not traders. In a lot of cases, they can't afford to be. In a lot of cases, they have the money, but legally they can't because they're not allowed, right? So, they're not traders. Fine. They're really good at what they do. What do they do? They see what the narrative is. They're there to sell newspapers, magazines, right? So, they want to see what people are talking about and then write articles about that. By the time the journalist figures that out by the time they write their article, submit the cover, uh, all of that gets approved. By the time that hits the shelves, it's too late. Take the other side. Right? >> Like, cuz they're writing about something that already happened and explaining it to people and they do a really good job at that. But that is not the same thing as f trying to find a prospective opportunity that hasn't happened. >> Well, within journalists, it depends on the journalist. For example, Barons only writes about the stock market, right? They're pretty much on top of it. Now, of course, there's been some magazine covers, but like you can't fade every Baron's cover. When The Economist is putting Lululemon on the cover, that's like, wait, what? Why is The Economist talking about Lululemon? >> All right. I like Newsweek time. Right. >> I like that distinction where it look if you if you're fading everybody who's writing about stocks everywhere, you're fading some people that focus on stocks 24/7 and they understand everything we just said. >> That's not the answer. I do agree with Michael. When a stock story crosses over into the mainstream media, you're in the eighth inning >> or a theme or anything like that. Like how many AI covers did we have at the end of the year? >> Every investor is doing hacks, >> right? $5,000. Yeah, we talked about it on the show. And again, it's not like we're just fading magazine covers. It's like when it lines up with price and it lines up with futures positioning and other things >> the time person of the year is like the seven most important AI CEOs. >> Perfect. >> A month ago. It's beyond perfect. >> Perfect. Okay. >> And then the fourth one is economist. And the economist is easy. Why are they wrong all the time? It's very simple. By design, they ignore what actually is happening in favor of what they think should be happening based on information that may or may not have happened. >> Right? So, >> wait, >> are you surprised that they're wrong all the time? >> Say more. >> Okay. So, economists, what do they do? They ignore what is happening. The prices of assets >> is what is happening >> in favor? And I know you have economist friends, so don't get sensitive about it. It's just what it is. They they >> He does, right? >> So, you got >> So, do you >> do I maybe >> maybe I don't know. Don't tell anybody. So what are they? They they look they ignore what is happening in favor of data that may or may not have happened because we know it it may probably will get revised. >> Right. And ignore is like pay no attention to what is happening. >> Right. >> Right. So if you're >> so not fade economists on the economy, fade economists on when they start talking about the stock market. >> Hell yeah. Hell yeah. All right. You guys ready? All right. So those are the four fade groups. Simple. Okay. We don't have to complicate things. So there's a lot of information out there. There's a lot of noise. Focus on these. Do the opposite. especially when they all agree. >> Okay. All right. I don't hate that. >> I think and we're painting with a broad brush. There's some there's some awesome every single person. >> I know sellside analysts. I know asset managers and journalists and maybe I know economist. I don't even know. >> There's an there's an economist somewhere listening to us saying [ __ ] fade podcasters. For sure. >> For sure. And then what happened to that guy? >> Fully justified. >> Whatever happened to that guy who was hating on blog on the blog on the bloggers back in the day that nobody ever heard from again, right? How'd that work out for him? not great >> hating on bloggers, >> dude. He was hating. Josh went off. We don't have to go there if you don't want. >> There was a guy, I'm not gonna say his name. Um, he sucks. He was a CNBC guy in like 0809 2010 and blogs were a brand new thing. He was like forced to react to all these stories that were happening on blogs like Barry's site and Zero Hedge and you know like all the stuff. Yeah. So he would do a segment night I think it was nightly blog you and he would just go off on somebody that was like from Twitter and he didn't make any friends and uh I don't I don't know if he was right or wrong. I forgot what he was saying but that was a thing. >> Okay. >> That was a it was a moment. >> Don't fade the bloggers. I'll tell you what they got they got cuz they got followers, right? I mean myself included. I mean I'm I'm there now. I wasn't then but I'm there now. All right. Let's get into it. You want to talk markets or what? >> Yes, let's do it. >> All right. Let's do it. So speaking of economists, uh the economists tell me that uh US GDP 70% of that is uh is consumer. So I don't know what a GDP is, but 70% of a lot 70% of anything is a lot, right? Yes. >> So we're seeing new all-time highs in consumer discretionary on both a market cap weighted and an equally weighted basis. Is that bearish? >> I don't think so. Is this heavily influenced by the stocks that are in the index or it doesn't matter really? The kind of the the the biggest market cap stocks in the index. >> So in the discretionary Tesla and Amazon are each over 20%. >> That's what I'm asking. >> Right. So fine. People are like, "Oh, it's just the big ones." Well, the equally weighted consumer discretionary index that completely eliminates those stocks out of the equation altogether is also making new alltime highs. >> Yep. Okay. That's the signal, right? How many how many people fail to correct themselves and look at the equal weight version of the index for that confirmation? >> Humans are lazy, bro. >> Right? It's like doesn't take much to double check. If you just look at an index and say, "Oh, it's all Apple and Microsoft." Well, wait, what does equal weight tech look like? >> Right? >> Not everybody will do that. >> And what does small cap tech look like? And what does midcap tech look like? >> Are you less bullish if you don't have that confirmation in the equal weight? >> You know, it's funny because well, first of all, on the consumer discretionary um Consumers have been quite the underperformer of this bull market, right? It's been technology, industrials, financials, uh, uh, communications. It's been the other offensive groups, not discretionary. So, looking at discretionary underperforming, if if there were others in that group underperforming, that would be a problem. But because it's the only one, we've been betting on rotation into it. I'm going to sort of say something that you probably don't care about, but I actually think there's a huge flaw with consumer discretionary being in uh in in uh a sector because the bifurcation between travel and restaurants last year is the reason that the consumer stocks quote unquote underperformed as a sector. The reality is they're not really a sector. People don't um necessarily choose between I'm going to go out to eat versus I'm going to go on a trip. They probably can do both if they feel like it. The restaurant stocks have been horrible. A lot of consumer discretionary stocks have been horrible. The travel stocks could not have been better. Even like I know airlines are not in it, but like the Expedias of the world. Um, so >> but airlines you would you could argue should be in it and Delta and uh United Air are making new alltime highs. >> And then here's the other thing. >> Walmart is not in making all high. >> What if I just take consumer discretionary and throw it out and look at Visa and Mastercard instead? >> Right. >> I like that signal better. Well, Jeff Mackey would agree with a lot of the things you're saying. Yeah. Right. I talked to Jeff a lot and he's like every like you know Uber's a consumer stock. Apple's a consumer stock. Google's a consumer stock. Right. So weird. >> So So just go with Visa, Mastercard. Let that What are they What are they saying? What are their share prices saying? >> I'd rather know that than start cherrypicking like what does Applebees think of the environment? Who gives a [ __ ] >> They might be doing really well or really poorly relative to their peers. >> Chilies though. >> Yeah. Great. Okay. I I like that concept. >> Okay. But meanwhile, look what's happening. Uh consumer sentiment is actually at the lowest levels ever. So you got the the humans are >> pure politics. >> Yeah, maybe fine. But the humans are very upset and uh the price of assets is making new highs, you know. >> These are these are different people. The people that are upset don't own stocks. >> Yeah. Well, I'll tell you what. In the in 1999 when this was at highs, uh the stock market crashed from there. And in 2019 with this as was this was the highs, we had three major corrections, including a full-on bare market and a historic market crash immediately after they were all uh super giddy. So yeah, these might be different people. It might be politics. I hear all that [ __ ] All I know is these people are angry and the consumer stocks are making new all-time highs. I couldn't think of a better combination. >> I can't believe this hasn't bounced. >> Well, I guess what? I This will never This will never be where it where it was. This is a this is a secular bare market. Yeah, >> I agree because the top is the advent of the internet. >> The internet makes people miserable. >> Nobody answers questions. People are miserable on the internet. This will never be over over 110 in our lifetime. >> I guess we'll see. My point is the humans are angry and the uh stocks that represent the humans are angry and the stocks that represent the behavior of those humans are making all-time highs. I love that combination. >> Okay. I I like that's a good counterpoint to the people that are talking about bubbles and euphoria and all these things. We'll get there. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. >> Um Okay. So, let's let's do a little uh let's have some fun here. Uh we're looking at Micro Strategy um hitting new lows uh more recently. And this was look at that top right when that cover came off. If you want to go to the next one, zoom in on that cover, >> you know, right there. The Bitcoin alchemist, >> the volatility virtuoso, >> Michael. >> Michael Sailor. Uh, so just look at where that peaked, right? >> That's January 30th, 2025. That's a year ago next week. >> Yep. So that's not a coincidence. >> Do you have a relative chart I say? >> Settle down. Here we go. So, um, Micro Strategy relative to Bitcoin. >> So, um, so this is a ratio of the price of Micro Strategy, which is doing the Ponzi with the Bitcoin, and then the actual price of Bitcoin, right? And then notice when it peaked. It peaked on November the 20th of 2024. Does anyone know what happened the day before that? >> The coronation of Donald Trump. >> No. >> Wait, the for what? I'm sorry. I was think >> November the 20th >> Thank Thanksgiving. >> November the 20th of 2024. The ratio between Micro Strategy and Bitcoin peaked. In other words, up until November 20th, if you wanted to put on a leverage long position in Bitcoin and make money in Bitcoin, Micro Strategy was the preferred vehicle over >> ETFs. >> No, that was January 24. >> Yeah. When what happened that day? >> November the 20th, 2024 was the peak and it crashed after that. The day before that, November 19th, was the day that options started trading on IBIT. >> Oh, that's good. Oh, well, that explains it. >> Price discovery, >> dude. No, no, no. It's the opposite. >> It's not necessary anymore. >> You don't need this anymore. >> You don't need it anymore. fluous. And by the way, it's not that's not a Ponzi scheme. Literally, >> I'm I'm not smart enough to understand. I don't care. It's a Ponzi. I hope it is. Doesn't matter to me at all. >> Right. >> So, my point is, not only does it not matter, I got long yesterday. >> You're long, Michael. >> The Ponzi. Yeah. Throw it up. There it is. >> Wait, it's a false breakdown. >> You're short the Ponzi. You're long. >> Long the Ponzi. >> It's not a Ponzi. >> Okay, fine. Great. >> No, but he doesn't matter whether it is or not. Jesus Christ. It's a digital assets treasury corporation. >> Yeah, sure. >> Okay. Uh, so you think we're seeing a false breakdown in strategy? >> So, dude, I'm telling you right now, how long have you known me? Every year is the same [ __ ] man. At the end of the year between that Christmas, New Year's, you got the bee squads on the desks, you got like nobody's you got there's no liquidity, >> tax law selling, they're puking stocks up, >> there's just low liquidity. Weird [ __ ] happens. And then you get back to work and they squeeze them higher. And going into that week, I'm like, crypto, crypto, Coinbase, Micro Strategy. I didn't know uh I had to see confirmation and then we got it. So, I got long yesterday pretty aggressively. So, I might add, uh let's see how it works for me. I'm going to keep a tight stop. Um very tight. >> You like this the way this one looks cuz it's a false breakdown that's now recovering versus the Coinbases or just buying a Bitcoin ETF. >> I'm I'm in Coinbase already also. >> Okay. But um I put on a Micro Strategy position yesterday, which I hadn't in a long time. >> Okay. All right. >> And then if you want to throw up the Bitcoin. >> Wait, Tracy, what does a tight stop mean to you? I'm curious. >> Well, it's I'm using a time stop because it's either going to go or it's not. And if it's going to go, it's going to go now. So, I might be out of this tomorrow. >> A time stop like a mental thing. >> Oh, okay. Okay. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> I like it. So, if it doesn't work now, I'm in this for two, three days. Well, I'd like to be in it for 3 months, but if it doesn't go in the first couple days, I'm out. >> Right. Cuz if trades don't work immediately when you think they should, >> not all of them, but this one definitely. >> Yeah. Okay. >> This one's either going to go or it's not. >> This looks This looks good to me. >> So, there's your anchored VWAP from the highs last year. You know, you're looking at 97. If we're above 97, the squeeze is Oh, >> I mean, this is like this is like uh I don't know how me how meaningful is that is that moving average? Is that a 10day? >> It's a VWAP. >> Volume weighted average price. >> All right. So, they're coming they're coming for the stock. They're coming for their coin. >> That's right. That's right. So, funny money long. >> Uh and then I just want to remind everybody that we've seen this story before. There's Fat Fred Savage right there on the cover of Forbes. And then remember what happened? >> Wasn't Didn't you make that? >> Yeah, you that's Josh line. >> Yeah, I did. >> Yeah. >> So, uh Sam Bankman Freed Fat Fred Savage. It's funny. >> That was you. >> Yeah. It's funny me calling anyone that, but okay, got it. Uh, he's in What is he going to do about it? Nothing. >> He's playing chess with Diddy. >> Yeah, I'm not worried about it. >> All right, go ahead. >> So, my point is that we've seen this before, right? And we'll see it again. So, it's not like funny. Haha. Not like No, no, no. Pay attention because we will see this again. This is not like a oneandone. This happens again and again and again. I probably have the greatest collection of magazine covers probably in the world. I don't think anybody has a collection like mine. I have magazines that go back to the bicycle bubble of the late 1800s. I got some [ __ ] right? And it's the same story again and again and again. >> What? The rise and fall of a of of a theme. >> All all kinds of things. All kinds of things. Um, all right. >> You're right. That is one of the constants forever and ever and ever will never not happen. >> I hope they >> I'm going to bring them next time I'm on the show. I'm going to bring a bunch of magazines and we'll look at them. I have some good stuff. All right. So, this was in November. So, this was very creative. The best ones usually are So, this one is a guy uh doing a yard sale down the down the uh mountain and then they turned his skis into red arrows pointing down how the markets could topple the economy. Josh, >> what does that mean? Like if the markets if the markets get crushed, the economy will get crushed with it. >> Notice Hold on. Go back. Go back. Go back. Notice the map uh of the world on his ass. >> Ah, >> that was good, right? Look, it's really good. >> It's snow comprising the continents. I wouldn't have seen that if you had pointed out. >> I know. So good. So good. Anyway, so the rule of thumb is whenever there's a chart on the cover of the magazine, you buy stocks. >> Yeah. >> Right. So I pulled all my associates and we agreed that that was a chart technically with the arrows. >> Yeah. >> And so here's the returns of stocks since then. >> Oh, micros. >> Micro caps up 15%. Tranny's up 12, small caps up 12, midcaps up 10. >> We don't say [ __ ] Uh >> we do this every time. Transportation Americans every time he's on the show. They don't like it. >> Transportation Americans. Disrespectful. So, uh, stocks absolutely ripping, uh, since then because of course they are because if the if these British journalists are telling you that the stock market is going to topple, it's probably going to be the opposite, right? And sure enough, it was. >> This is unbelievable the unanimity with which every one of these things proceeded to to work. >> Is it surprising to you? >> Yeah. So, I guess the economist has to wait for Q2 for markets to topple the economy. Oh, here we go. So, they So, the journalists aren't wrong. It's just a bubble. That's all. >> So, uh, Rit Holtz is slipping into my DMs. >> Oh, boy. >> You know. >> Oh, boy. >> He does that late at night sometimes. >> Yeah. >> And so, we're talking about, uh, this one. What do you guys think about this one? >> Beware of the bubble. How to survive the year ahead. What day does this come out? Is this >> last week? >> This is last week. >> Yeah. I just >> What is it even worth commenting on what they mean? Which bubble? >> AI. >> It's just it every It's just a bubble. All the bubbles. >> It's just everything is a bubble. you know, all the bubbles. Josh, >> so for me, the cover is not enough. I have to read the spiel. >> Got it. Of course. >> See what they're saying. >> Yeah. Yeah. He buys the Playboy for the articles. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> No, I just have to I can't fade something if I don't even know. They're not even saying what the bubble is in. It's almost like this cover will be wrong or right no matter what cuz they're not saying what the bubble's in. >> That's right. Well, I gave a presentation a couple months ago, I think in Vegas, and I asked everybody, you know, raise your hand if you think we're in a bubble. And the entire uh room raised their hand and I'm like I didn't even mention an athlete. >> Who's the who's the audience? >> Um I don't know like rich investors, >> right? Raise your hand if we're in a bubble and it it doesn't even matter. >> Doesn't matter. Okay. >> It was great. Um Okay. >> What do you think most of them think? You mean do they are they thinking like Nvidia uh AI? >> Probably. >> Okay. All right. >> Yeah, probably. >> Okay. >> Um All right. I mean, listen, any anything that's going up that you're not in is a bubble, right? I think there are a lot of very well-known stocks that are not in tech that are definitely, if not in bubbles, on their way. Costco, Walmart. These should not be 40 times earnings. >> Oh, here we go. Earnings. >> Those are not bubbles. They're >> on their way. >> Dude, 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. >> How about that for saying it's not a good company? >> Costco can't be a bubble. >> I'm saying historically, people didn't buy those stocks at that expensive of a price without getting their asses kicked eventually. Don't worry, this time is different. >> Fair enough. All right, go ahead. >> Uh, all right. So, last year, a year ago today, check the tape. I told you that international was out going to outperform the United States and the dollar was going to get smoked, right? >> Yes. >> And you said that I hope you're right because that would be really good for our industry as in financial advisors, you know, that would be really good. So, I'm curious. >> You said that then. Was it and how? Well, for the first time in a decade, my adviserss don't have to explain to clients why they own anything other than the S&P 500 >> or the keys. >> Am I overstating it? >> No. >> Okay. Like that has been a conversation. Not every client, not every year, but it's like what what is the point of emerging markets? What is the point of Western Europe? What is the point of Japan? Different people at different times. Nobody's asking that question right now. So, nobody who stuck it out. >> That's right. >> Yeah. So emerging markets X China up 35%. Emerging markets with China up 34%. All country world index X North America up 32%. Epha which is a lot of Europe and Japan up over 30%. You know go down the list. Right. >> If you pull back if you pull this back 15 years and just look at cumulative returns that trade could have like five more years to go and still not get get to where the S&P and it may never. I'm not I'm not telling you that'll mean revert and you'll get those types of returns, but like for people who think they missed it, what do what do you think on the technicals? >> I agree wholeheartedly with you that I mean this was a long time of the other side, you know. So there is it's 15 years >> and we don't need to like if you if you want to see what all these countries look like go watch the last episode I was in in the summer and we went through except higher and more to the right but all these countries are up Latin America South Africa uh Asia Southeast Asia all across Europe >> up and to the right Japan >> I love that line higher and more to the right >> yeah higher than they were in the summer and more to the right so the United States put up historic numbers There's 20% year for the NASDAQ, 17% year for the S&P 500, and the US was one of the worst countries on the planet. >> Yeah. And that's and that's like even with all the AI that people were saying there's no AI stocks in the like right like Europe has ASML, that's it. And uh >> SAP >> Well, is there a PL? Is this an advertisement mid show? >> So, so I dove so I dove into this uh in our chart. >> Kid put a a banner ad into Yeah. So, this is brought to you by our sponsor, Charts Summit 2026. No, I mean, because I get I dive into all of these charts. >> You're the only person that this is allowed for. >> Well, I >> All right, go >> go download the deck. Go download the deck from the presentation. You have friends on this list. >> I'm going to see I'm going to see Katie Stockton in uh 45 minutes from now. >> Well, tell her I said what's up. She was great. Uh David Longren, uh Frank Capillary Straz and I gave a great presentation. Go download the deck. Check it Hey, this is a this is actually a pretty damn good uh roster. How'd you get all these people? >> Drinking buddies. >> Is that Is that Max Kellerman on top right? Who is it? >> Yeah. Uh Max Kellerman talking about boxing. Uh John Neetto, Market Wizard. So you can download my deck and all the other decks and watch all the presentations. It's totally free. So go check that out. >> All right. Chartsummit.com. All right. So these are in your opinion like some of the more interesting technicians who made presentations. I mean, listen, Katie's great, Frank is great, Neto, Lungren, they're all fantastic, but I got to tell you, me and Straza's presentation was pretty pretty good. >> Did any of the technicians disagree with uh what you guys are are telling people, >> you know, people weigh different things he more heavily and and lighter. Katie uses a lot more oscillators than I do, for example. She uses the ichiro clouds and all that stuff. >> She's a Demar person, too. >> She's a Demar. Lundren uh looks at things from a different perspective. Frank Cap as well. So, like, you know, check it out. Enjoy it. Ryan Dietrich as well. >> Um, all right. So, I I don't want to get into all of the different international markets and everything like that. We've done that before. We go over it on the presentation. Go check that out there. This is the big one. Uh, these are the assets uh throughout uh 2025 and the returns. Bitcoin was actually down. Bonds flat. S&Ps put up record numbers with the Q's and just massive underperformers. Look at silver. >> Why you say record numbers? What do you mean by that? 70% return in the S&P 500, double the annual average return. Yeah, I'd say that's >> it's nowhere close to record, but it's a good it's a good year. >> It's not a record amount better, but it's a it's a better year than the average. >> Yeah, of course. >> A great year. No one's going to say it wasn't a great year. >> It's a great year. >> But but underperformed practically everything else. >> Look at that. Look at this though. Silver up 150%, gold up 65, emerging markets 34, developed stocks 32. Like that's where the real money was made last year. Yeah, >> it's I mean it's obvious. >> Yeah. >> So, it's too late. My barber asked me this morning a haircut from uh Dominic. >> How early do you get a haircut? >> The Bmore Barber. He wants to know if he should buy more silver. >> Seriously? >> Yeah. >> So, he said he said I I'm hearing uh I'm hearing it could go higher from here. >> Are you making a joke or you >> swear in my life? And I said I said, "Dominic, it definitely can go higher from here. I don't I'm not going to be the one that tells you." That's right. >> But just understand like it was 16, it's 90. >> You know what I'm saying? like it like it's not early. So, I mean, I don't I don't know what to tell anybody. >> We'll get to the silver in a second. Um, let's stick with the stocks for right now. I just kind of wanted to put things in perspective. Look at the industrials and the transports. Both of these indexes are making new highs. This these indexes go back to the late 1800s. They've never been higher. Closing at alltime highs together. >> That's so bullish. >> So, it's less of a signal. I'm getting, you know, emails from, you know, uh, journalists and stuff like that like, "Oh, big signal." It's like, "No, no, no. It's not so much a signal as it is confirmation." Yeah. >> Confirmation of what? confirmation of all the other things that are suggesting and have been suggesting that we're in a bull market. This just confirms that all those things are in fact something about Dow theory though. This is my this is my uh this is like anecdotally what I find. When it is in the favor of the bulls, people will point it out and then when it's not cuz transports are doing badly, people just forget about it. Like who cares? >> Um do you do you get that sense? Also, >> I feel like just nobody cares. And I'm the old man in the room telling you that this is the most important thing that you need to be watching. >> All right? Because I want to point out we had a really great run of years where the S&P was making highs or the Dow was making highs and the transports were not. And people like me very cleverly substituted the the socks. >> Yeah. >> And I would say semis are the new transports anyway. Don't care that the airlines don't look good. And like the markets did great. like it it didn't matter that we didn't have that confirmation, I guess, is what I'm trying to say. Now we have it. Okay, convenient. >> These divergences come at peaks like regularly. Even before co tradies were already rolling over. Look at the uh >> never change. >> Look at the New York Stock Exchange Composite >> making all-time highs. These are the stocks that trade on the world's most important exchange. You know how many mega cap tech stocks there are on the New York Stock Exchange? Three. United States mega cap tech stocks, I should say. You got IBM, Salesforce, and >> Cisco. No, IBM, Salesforce, and there's one more, Oracle. Those are the only three mega cap tech stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ, you got Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, all those others. Uh Taiwan Semi, uh also trades on the New York Stock Exchange. >> SAP, um Noardis, you got a over a third of the New York Stock Exchange is international companies. You're getting a lot more cyclicals there. You're not getting this mega cap tech exposure that you're getting in the NASDAQ. The New York Stock Exchange is to me the best universe of stocks in the world. >> Okay, that's not obviously not bearish. I don't know if it's necessarily bullish. >> Oh, wait. Jason, let me ask a question. When people say to you, I am uncomfortable. I am leaning bearish because everything is working. What do you say to that person? >> I would say go back and study history. >> Meaning >> meaning the best time to buy stocks is when it's making new highs. We have the we have the data. We have the math, right? We know that asset prices trend. Like there's a lot about the market that we don't know, but there's a few things that we do know. And we know that asset prices trend. So if you're constantly fighting trends, then you are the sucker, right? You want to be the house. >> Asset prices don't oscillate, >> right? >> They don't it's not up down up down up down. They're going up or they're going down or they're doing nothing. >> If you if you are the type of personality where you think this is as good as it gets, you will not make money over time. I forget who said it the other day and said, you know, if you want to manage money, you want to manage a portfolio, you better be you better be comfortable with buying things after they've already doubled because if you're not, you're not going to last. >> Yeah. Right. Because because there's a reason why something's doubled. >> Yeah. >> And you'll find out later. >> And you're not smart enough or informed enough to know yet. And you may never be, by the way. >> Right. So this is the problem with using intuition in the markets. It's like it's so obvious that nobody wants to buy something that was just five and now is 10. >> But you know what's so funny about this? Like when I talk that the market is bullish and people accuse me of being bullish or naive, it's like this. I'm not giving you an opinion of what I think will happen in 12 months, I'm describing what is happening today. That's right. >> And objectively, if you're fading every episode when we're bullish because the stock market is bullish, you're gonna you're not going to make any money. Do you know um we launched our RAIA in September of 2013 and it's been a long time but somebody once sent me the tweet where I back then people used to go on this thing called Twitter and announce stuff. Um I tweeted a link to my blog post announcing the new firm or maybe it was Barry's one or the other. Somebody sent me this and like there were like 50 responses. Congratulations. So happy for you guys. But like half the responses were top top 2013. >> Yeah. >> Where was the was the Dow at 18,000? >> That was that was the end of the last decade. Remember that was that they were talking about it last decade. We were just breaking out. >> Top. Barry and Josh just launched an RA at top. >> Really? >> Yeah. >> Top. Sure. >> With like 100 million. >> But but the reason why they were saying that is not they weren't saying that cuz like they're making fun of us. They're teasing us. They're saying that because in 2013, the market had finally come all the way back to the ' 07 high after having been cut in half. That's why they're >> and 2020 and 20. >> You have to buy tops. >> Yeah, >> cuz they're probably not tops. That's right. >> It's very hard to do. >> People think that the top of the chart means that there's resistance. >> Oh, it's the opposite. >> Well, people are out of their minds. They think they think it's a personal top for them. >> Yeah. >> They think here we go again. >> Yeah. >> Right. Like I'm going to top it by buying. just my luck, >> right? As far as you're not that important. >> So, so to me, it's a market of stocks. So, we look at the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ, you know, we look at the um Russell 3000. Um, it's a market of stocks >> at the end of the day. >> I know you've got a ratio of the smallest to the bigs. >> Yeah, I'm getting there. I'll get there. Uh, so here we're looking at the percentage of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange above their 200 day moving average hitting new 52 week highs yesterday. >> So, that also happened in 2021, though. is that that's like not always great. >> More stocks in uptrends is not a bad thing for the market, >> but it's not always a great moment to buy. >> That's all I'm saying >> on average of this. >> All I'm saying is that >> it's not always 2021. >> All I'm saying is these lies that they were telling you in the fourth quarter about how his weakening breath and market deterioration, it was just sour grapes. >> What they were saying to quote Jeff Degraph, he called it sour grapes. He's he was right. It's just that the concentration of returns up until that point was so strong. That doesn't mean it's weak market breath. It's that the concentration of the best stocks. >> Amen, sister. It's two different things. We know that the average return one year later is higher at an all-time high than on all other days. So, we know that for a fact. So, yes, obviously not always. Obviously, and also most of the time crashes don't start from all-time highs. And if this is the top right here today and the market weakens and we it starts to starts to deteriorate, we see distribution, we see selling more 52 week lows, we'll see it. >> People are like, "Oh, 1987 came out. You could change your mind." People are like, "Oh, 1987 came out of nowhere." No, the market peaked in August. The crash wasn't until October. >> You know what else people assume that like the typical investor is a lump sum investor like, "All right, here's everything putting it all in today." >> But Jesse, say this loud. Stocks crash from oversold conditions. Stocks crash when they're in downtrends for the most part. >> Yeah, >> they don't happen overnight. >> Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's right. >> Yeah, that's right. Um, so here's a really interesting one. So, this is so the NASDAQ hasn't made a new high since October, but this is the NASDAQ 100 QQQ, but uh NASDAQ stocks 101 through 200, which is the NASDAQ NextG 100. >> No, what is this? This is this is an an index. This is 101 through 200. >> This is like zoom. >> This is the next hund. >> Like the the smaller tech stocks. >> Oh, that's it. So, it's QQQJ. It has >> like Palaton. Like, what's in here? I'm curious. >> Have you ever looked at this? >> Yeah. Yeah. Back in the day. >> So, these are the next 100 names. So, you're looking at companies between 20 and $40 billion in market capitalization. >> So, all right. So, these are like big tech stocks, not big enough to be in the NASDAQ one. This could be like data dog or like I'm trying to think like what you're going to get. Here we go. SanDisk, eBay, Fizer, Pterodine, United Airlines. That's weird. Cororeweave, Expedia, Kimberly Clark. There's some weird [ __ ] in the NASDAQ these days. But but that's it. >> You're getting four times the healthcare exposure. So, a lot of these biotechs are not big enough to be in the NASDAQ 100. So, you're going to get a lot more healthcare here. So, that certainly helps. >> Dude, how weird is this? Dollar Tree and Ulta and United. Like, >> there's a big trend like, you know, Walmart switched from the New York Stock to the NASDAQ. >> They're all bouncing from the NY. What's going on? So they want to be seen as uh growth companies, not as blue chips. That's like the >> NASDAQ that's the wave. >> NASDAQ's got the crown. >> Yeah, I don't think so. So So the point is So the point is just because some of these big ones aren't working doesn't mean that tech stocks are not working. So it was hilarious. So this guy this guy Ron Dantis, right? My understanding he's the I think he's the governor of Florida or something like that. >> Correct. So this guy's talking about market breath, you know, talking about how it's the mag seven economy and everything like that. A funny thing happened that day. >> Is this real? >> A funny thing happened that day. That was the day that the mag seven stocks peaked on a relative basis and have gone. >> Can you read the tweet? >> You want to read the tweet? >> Yeah. >> The magnificent 7 economy. Has there ever been a time in which the market was as skewed towards one sector and really one aspect of one sector as it is lately? So funny thing happened. October 29th, 2025. Thank you, Governor. >> So, funny thing happened. So, not only was that not true, right? He either didn't bother to count or he was lying. Either way, not acceptable. Since then, practically every stock is going up except those. >> Yeah, he should re he should revisit that tweet. >> What a chart. So, do you think that we're we're on false break? Are we on a false breakdown? Watch or you think that it's got it's got lower lows >> here. Go to the next one. So, what we've seen since then, the NASDAQ has yet to make a new high and technology has massively underperformed in that environment. But, and you know, I like big butts. This is a big butt. Throw up the next one. But, semiconductors making all-time highs on a relative basis. How bad could it be for tech if semis are still rolling? It's a software issue. It's a mega cap issue, but if semis are rolling, how bad could things be? >> So, you're you're buying the weakness of mega cap tech. I personally I mean I bought on this uh recently but that's like it's small small communications equipment. >> I'm talking like like Microsoft like are you buying the weakness of Microsoft? >> I am not I have not yet. >> Microsoft looks heavy. >> I am not yet. Uh I think that this is going to be a process. >> Meta looks meta looks lifeless. >> I want to look I want to look Microsoft is worse than meta. >> So let's let's talk about where I do want to look. Right. So uh go to the next one. And as I mentioned uh the world looks great. You know it's not a bull market for America. It's a bull market for Earth, right? The planet that we live in, Earthlings. >> No, no, no tiny, no tiny Lithuanian stocks today, please. >> No, no, no. We're not gonna go do this country thing. Check the tape. Go back to when I was in in the summer for the 200th episode. And then all of those are just higher and more to the right. Yeah. >> So, we don't have to do this again. The the world's making alltime highs. And if you exclude America, also still making alltime highs. We can move on. All right. So, what are we going to buy? So, this one to me, I think this is a big chart right here. throw up the small caps there on a relative basis. So, this is the Malachi Tony market is what I call it. Just give the ball to the little guy and let him run with it. You know what I'm saying? >> Shout shout out to Tony. >> I did this on >> You got to get him on the show. >> I would love to. I I don't know what we would talk about, >> but go talk about this. I'll make the case. Uh for this ratio, the Russ the 2000 versus the large ones. >> That's going dude. It's working. >> This is This So, you know how you said asset prices trend? This one oscillates. >> It does. >> The Russell sucks. >> No, the relative ratio >> sucks everybody in. >> I'm talking about a relative ratio. >> No, I know. I'm just saying. Small caps suck everybody in periodically and then they roll. >> Is it going to stick this time? >> Yeah. >> I think I think so. You want to walk through? >> Given how bearish I am, it'll probably stick. >> I think this might be the time. I really do. >> I hope I hope it should. >> Well, why don't we do a some of the parts analysis of that? >> So, let's look at the index. Look at this base. >> Yeah. >> This thing has done nothing since the end of 21. >> Think of the base. You got one of these. Another one of these. >> JC, bigger the base. What do we say? >> The bigger the bass, the higher in space. >> Louise, >> is that funny? >> I know. It's I I like it. >> So, I asked Alan Shaw, rest in peace, before he passed. I'm like, where did you learn that? Cuz Luis Yamada says she learned it from Alan Shaw. And Alan Shaw was older. And I'm like, Alan Swag, isn't it? >> No, you before, dude. Alan Shaw is like a zillion years old. And he learned it from his predecessors, and he started in the 50s. So, his predecessors were trading in the 30s and 40s, and they taught him that. >> Wow. So, this has to go way back, >> huh? That's wild. >> I did the homework. I did the due diligence, right? So, uh, small cap's going up, and this is not oscillate, Josh. Uh, look at this long-term chart. This is from the lower left to the upper right, bro. >> Yeah. Uh, I think I I meant like relative to the S&P. Like, there are times the Russell outperforms, but it doesn't last long. >> I guess we'll see. >> Relatively, >> because look look at put up the communist ones. So, these guys discriminate, right? Because you can get they'll in the Russell 2000 they'll let anybody in. But in the S&P 600 you got to be making money. >> Yeah. How dare they? >> Only profitable. >> Yeah. You got to be making money. >> You get more financials in the 600 I think. >> So what's hilarious about fundamental analysis is that the the ones with the Russell 2000 that you don't need earnings. You could be losing a fortune. Don't matter. You're in. They're doing a lot better than the companies that are only in if they're making money. So if you're only buying good companies, you're missing out on the best performers. >> Yeah. >> Good companies. Right. And then you could just look at the um comp the composition. You're getting uh you're getting you're getting a little more healthare uh and you're getting less uh industrials a little bit on the Russell 2000, but relatively comparable. So I just wanted to show that you're getting uh a lot more consumer discretionary in the S&P 600. >> You're Russell 2000 is for the bigger small biotechs. Look, it's 19% biotech healthcare, which is mostly >> like profitless or barely profitable biotech. >> Yeah, >> it's it's uh 18% in the S&P 600 banks. >> Yeah. >> So, makes sense. Uh >> let me say and banks is still pretty big in the Russell 2000. >> Josh always says it's only regionals. >> Let's do some Let's do some of the parts. Let's do some of the parts. So, first of all, this is the S the small cap momentum index making alltime highs. >> Okay. >> Okay. Okay, so this is not bearish, right? These are the momentum names doing well. That tends to happen in healthy market environments. Now go to the industrials. All-time highs for small cap industrials, all-time highs for small cap materials, right? Alltime highs for small cap technology. So when people are telling you that small cap stocks aren't working, maybe your small cap stocks aren't working, but clearly small cap stocks are working. We can keep going. And then you know the small cap financials like you said, come on. Is there a more important base in the stock market right now than this one? >> How how how does this one resolve? >> Way to go, right? Way higher. >> Look at what are the other ones doing? >> Time out. What the hell is a small cap financial >> regionals? >> That's it. >> There's 260 of them. It's >> not even like sub region like Thrifts. >> Like community banks. >> It's a lot of small banks. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> There's some there's some other things mixed in there that are a little bit lost, but it's banks. >> It's Jackson Financial Lincoln National. >> I own I think I own I think Kinsale is is in this group. >> Hyper Sandler, Ste. We know these names. >> We know some of these. All right, I want to dive in there. >> Uh, you also got a couple hundred biotechnology stocks. Biotech hitting the highest level since 2021. Healthcare big. >> I don't like to I don't like to trade charts biotech given the the nature of the tape bombs, good and bad. Just, you know what I mean? Like, >> but if you filter by companies that are above a billion dollars, >> it's different. >> You're eliminating a lot of that risk. And if you if you put together a basket of B, you should see my portfolio over the last year. You would think I'm some kind of scientist or something like >> and we got the stock >> like like uh I feel like Dave Chappelle. Yes. Scientist, you know. Um so and then look at discretionary. Look at that base and discretionary. This is small cap discretionary looks great. And then look at small cap energy, right? And then I want to dive into energy before we hop for the day. >> Okay. >> So this is uh I remember where I was in the summer of 2008 the last time energy was here. >> I know, dude. This is like I can't imagine this not being V trade of 2026. >> You and me were a beast. >> This will not be on any magazine cover anytime soon. >> I'm waiting for it, man. I'm waiting for it. Has >> that'll be the end. That'll be >> We got an Iran economist today. Does that count? >> I I can't imagine this not being the the gold of 26. >> Look at that base, bro. >> I know. >> By the way, gold looks just like this before it broke out. >> I'm I'm telling you I'm telling you that I'm bowled up on oil and gas. >> Here you go. >> Let me see. Yeah. So, I'm long this stock, Exxon. >> Come on. >> It's going to I mean, I I just I don't I don't understand how it's not 150 already. >> I I know it moves slowly. It's a very big stock and moves slowly. >> It's a big company. >> Okay. What else? >> Um >> uh oil services. Look at it trying to get above those 02 lows. >> I'm going to pitch you an oil service name in a minute. Okay. >> All right. >> Yeah. >> Um and then look at the relative ratio. >> Yeah. >> Between XLE and the S&P 500. >> Yep. >> Right. The S the energy versus tech looks very similar. >> Looks very good. And then here's here's one I like. I'm long this one. This is Solaris Energy. >> What do they do? I'm just I'm just kidding. I know you don't know. >> Who cares? >> Allegedly, they're in the oil and gas space. Um but uh I don't know. Maybe it's a Ponzi scheme. I don't know. >> I have no idea. Why would I know? >> Okay. All right. >> I mean, they're doing something right. How many energy stocks do you know that look like this? >> Uh not a lot, >> right? >> The refiners look like that. >> Oh, they they look good. And then so this chart comes from Macro Charts. Um great shout out to Macro. He's a great follow across the board. >> Where is that? >> This who's Macro Charts? >> Yeah, >> he's anonymous. Uh but he's basically like the consili to like a bunch of like big hedge funds. Like he's he's the real deal. >> Okay. >> So this is a chart from him. This is the oil silver ratio going back to the >> strong buy. Strong buy cuz people are talking about silver. Oh, did you know that transistor chips require a certain amount of silver? Okay. So, if that's why you're really bullish on silver, then you can buy oil here. That's that's that's if that's like really the story. >> I think this is a interesting way to look at things that if you're if you're bullish of energy, this is a this is a >> What do you think of this? >> I forgot to put this in the dock. So, I grabbed one chart from Todd, our boy Todd Zone. Look at how hilarious this is. Uh Todd said, "This one's for the Djens. It's the ProShares Ultra Short Silver." So obviously this thing has been going vertically down, >> right? It's crashing. But but normally nobody buys this. Like there's no volume until people are trying to call the top desperately in silver. >> Desperately. >> Desperately. Like that's a dope chart. >> Throw up the silver. >> I got a thing. >> God damn. >> So this guy this got a $100 roll. >> Yeah. >> $100 roll written all over. >> I think that'll happen. >> All right. So um let's play >> and then and then what? >> Let's play perma bear. All right. So what? Okay. So what's going to change all this? What's going to change? Precious metals. was going to change this massive international >> dollar break out higher. >> So we came into the year looking for a break down in the dollar, right? Long euro, long British pounds, long Swissy, long emorex, and that worked out great. If if the dollar >> last year, >> last year, if the dollar breaks out above 100, I think that that's a I think that's a problem. And we're starting to see a few cracks. And not every crack needs to turn into a market crash, but every major bare market >> I was going to say that could give you like the correction that or the or the dip that hasn't happened yet. >> Every crash, every correction starts with a crack or two. Here's a couple discretionary staples not making new highs with the S&P making new highs. Uh the Magnificent 7 hitting new fourmonth lows today on a relative basis. So if you're looking for a culprit for this particular cycle, that would be it. And then here's the Frankenstein, right? So this is the last chart. So this is the Frankenstein trade where the bonds have never been more dead. Literally dead and stocks like that, right? >> We talked about this the other day. Vanguard put something out saying the right portfolio asset allocation for this year is 40 stocks, 60 treasuries. And I can't believe I can't remember ever hearing them say that. And I didn't even bother to track down what the rationale was. But just that idea that like somebody's even saying that is interesting to me. So >> that's weird. >> They're not looking at the charts. They obviously have another reason that they're saying >> we're going into a midterm year. We're in a midterm year. The worst of the four year cycles. Even though technically >> that's what Vanguard's looking at. >> Technically when it's the second term the cy Joe Davis. >> Yeah, he's a midterm cycle. I'm kidding. >> Year six year six for second term is not as bad. It's actually pretty good. But nevertheless, midterm year historically not great. So one can argue what should we be looking out for for things changing? I think that that discretionary staples ratio I think tech underperforming >> dollar rally >> dollar rally and I think bonds waking up because if there the look at how boring bonds have been over the last years >> dollar rally forget about the implications for stocks that's really bad for people that are chasing silver here >> I think it's bad for international stock investors I think it's bad for silver precious metals rocks in general of any kind whether to be of the precious or base variety >> can we go back to the previous chart so I think this is really interesting. The Apple the Mac 71. I think up until now people were waiting for like the dot divergence where you see the rest of the market and only the mag seven are the ones that are left standing and then of course we know what happens next. It would be interesting if it's the reverse of time if the leaders go first and now they pass the baton to the rest of the market and it's like a sort of fake handoff and then they all come tumbling down together. Maybe that would catch every that would catch me off sides. I mean that would be interesting >> if the dollar's above a hundred. I think that's a big problem. If you start to see volatility pick up in the bond market, that's a big problem. You know, generally the trend is up for stocks. Like we want to be buying stocks, you want to be buying breakouts. And I don't necessarily think it's a binary outcome where like, oh, everything's going to get crushed. I think this is going to be a K-shaped market. Look what I see what I did there. Come on. Come on. That's pretty pretty good, huh? Pretty good. We like the K. >> So, I think that rather than 2025 everything went up. Some went up more than others. I think we could be very high likelihood that in 2026 we could have huge winners, huge losers, and some that kind of just trade flat. I think that would be a very high likelihood. >> That's what AI is doing. I agree. >> I think most investors be okay with that as long as they think they're going to be the ones that are in the ones that work. >> Be selfish, right? >> Hey, what a tour to force, ladies and gentlemen. JC Pretty. >> Thank you. And uh we will include a link in the description so people can check out your slides, Drazza's slides from stock market summit >> because we did we went out we did hours. I mean Josh and Batnik and myself we could be here all night but they got things to do. I got nothing to do but they got things to do. >> Do you have your brokerage account open and logged in? >> Uh no. >> All right. I'm going to pitch you some stocks. You might want to buy a couple of them. >> Oh, I'm gonna talk to my wife. >> No, I'm not pitching you, but I just want to get your take on these. Um Sean and I keep a list of the best stocks in the market. You know what we're looking for. Uh the general idea is we buy strength. We're not looking we're not looking for reversals and pieces of [ __ ] We're not um bottom fishing. >> Is that on the fact sheet? >> Yeah. We're not uh storytelling. Uh we're not listening to conference calls. Um it's not that we don't care. It's that that's not the selection criteria. Okay. >> So might have a personal interest in learning why a stock is going up, but it doesn't start there. Okay. Um >> I want to show you a couple and just hear what you think. It doesn't really matter what I think uh of the technicals themselves. Morgan Stanley's been on best stocks in the market list, I think, consistently since the summer. Um it's probably been a good seven, eight months, >> man. >> And it is just the move today is obviously earnings driven. So, let's assume a little bit of this today's move fades. I This is as good of an uptrend as I've seen in this stock since I started doing this 30 years ago. Like you normally don't see stocks like consistently for that long of a period of time sitting above the 50-day. >> Look how well look how well behaved. Look how well behaved this is. And um it's not that there haven't been like rough weeks, but like this this stock has given no one any reason to sell it whatsoever if they're just focused on price. What are your thoughts? >> I mean financials in general have been a monster, right? European financials, um, Japanese financials, >> US money center banks, >> all of them just absolutely ripping. So, it's more about the group that it's in and less about the stock itself. >> You know, >> I agree. These don't these don't really separate that much from each other. Large cap US financials, they tend to do what they're all doing. I agree with that for the most part. >> Yeah. I mean, you know, >> this one's not your favorite. >> It's not that it's not my favorite, it's that they're all kind of like this, right? Where like they're extended. You know, look at Bank of New York Melon. absolutely ripping. Look at all these European banks. I mean, the trend is up. And for me, it's less about trading Morgan Stanley and more about thinking about the implications. You know, if these financials are up, not just the United States, but globally. Like, I'm old school. Like, I came up in the 2000s. I was there for the great financial crisis. We don't have bull markets in America without financials. And in the rest of the world, it's even more egregious when you look at the holdings of the companies in those indexes. So, like >> I look at an MSJC and I just in my mind, well, how do they make money? They have everything in their favor. There are IPOs. There's M&A. >> The FTC isn't saying no to anything unless Trump wants to get something for himself out of it. Um, so there's deals all over the place. You could bring companies public. Asset management revenues are ripping because asset prices are at record highs. Um, they make money as a as a treasury bond dealer. I think they're in that business. um net interest margin, spread businesses like uh proprietary trading, fixed income, commodities, currencies. There's nothing they don't make money from. Uh there's nothing that they're involved in that's not doing well right now. And >> I would say I would say 189 is a big number there. Big lot of lot of market memory there going back, you know, >> John GS >> to the great financial crisis highs. So, if we start falling back below 189 and kind of holding below there, that could start to turn into a problem. But if you're above 189, I mean, this another 50% higher. Why not? >> Basically the same chart. Goldman Sachs. >> Yeah. >> Um Morgan Stanley's been an easier ride. You've had some trend line violations here along the way. I just think that's the nature of it being a higher baited name than Morgan Stanley, at least these days. But like huge winner. >> Same trade. >> Same trade. Okay, I'm with you. All right, I group these together. >> Yeah, the trend the trends are not are not down. >> Here's a question. Next ne next chart. You can't buy this with a straight face, right? >> Why? >> I don't know. I can't I So, this KLA, this has been on the best stocks in the market list for a while. Uh we wrote it up a few months back. It's been like a a massive home run. This is because this is a this is parabolic to me. What do you think? You can't you can't buy this stuff. >> No, I cannot. >> No way. Um, does the presence of a gap like that bother you? >> Uh, no. >> That's a baby gap. >> Would it stop you from that that would not be the thing that would stop you from from pushing by on on a KLA? >> No. I'm looking at like 15 and a quarter. If we're above 15 and a quarter, I think you're fine. You know, that gap is just evidence of, you know, uh, relentless uh, buying pressure. People are like, "Oh, JC, it's overbought." It's like, well, how could an overwhelming amount of buying pressure possibly be a bad thing? I don't know. I don't understand. >> This is reacting to Taiwan semi news today. That's why it gapped today. >> It can be a bad it can be a bad thing in the very short term, but who cares? >> Semiconductors are making all-time highs on a relative basis. So, the fact that you're putting up a semiconductor stock that's making a new high, like it better be. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I agree with that. Uh, next one. >> Do it. >> Here's another one. We've we've been we've been writing about this one all year. Lamb Research, LRCX. Uh, not as parabolic as KLA, but basically the same the same chart. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean like what do you want me to tell you? I mean it's a bull market. >> The question is can you hit buy on a new trade in in this stock today or you would not do that? >> I mean I wouldn't today because that's not how I trade. It doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Like 236 is a big one here. You know this goes back to the dot bubble highs. 236 is a big one. So if you could >> you're looking at 25 year charts right now. Yeah. All of these all of these stocks were like also part of the original.com bubble. Me and Leonardo Fibonacci the pizza are getting down right now on this laptop. You know what I'm saying? You know, 236 is the big one. 381 is next. So, if it could stick that 236, yeah, it could keep going higher, but you know, expect volatility. I mean, this thing's going to be down 10% in two days >> for no reason. >> For no reason in a week, easy, you know, >> and it'll shake out the type of people who bought today without even thinking about it. >> That's right. >> All right, next group. Uh, here's CBRE. In 45 minutes, I'm gonna go pitch this with Sean at the New York Stock Exchange. I'm not going to tell you the fundamental story. It's commercial real estate, which everyone which everyone obviously hates and thinks is a worthless asset class, and this stock doesn't give a [ __ ] what anyone thinks. >> And uh I love these types of setups where they're consolidating below resistance for a while and knocking on the door. Me, too. >> And it just to me, this is so obviously going to break through. It is the blue chip of the space. It's an asset light business in commercial real estate which is an asset heavy sector and they're going to treat it like a tech stock because they've transformed the whole business from brokerage transactional commissions to an ARR model. >> Can I tell you something? >> And the street loves these stories. >> I'm buying the stock today. How about that? You just convinced me. I love this chart. You like it? >> Yeah, I like it. 185 is coming. >> I'm buying this right now. >> All right. uh >> 185 and then after that >> I'm not front running the CNBC pro people because I I wrote it up this morning in the column >> 260 260 after 185. >> All right. I don't own it yet. I might pull the trigger too. First solar. Uh I don't know what to do with this. This stock's been on the best stocks in the market list. It still is. >> These stocks are so >> these are so for me these are so hard to um figure out where to enter, where to exit. But I this think about it if while we're on the subject of 25 year charts. >> No solar stocks ever. >> Like no solar stocks ever because you lost money in Nphase. >> Uh no. But >> that wasn't good though. >> No dude. Bro, this chart these >> dude. Bro, >> dude, if you're going to do Chinese solar go like you're either going to go full >> or tan or tan the ETF. >> Fine. You ever make money you ever make JC you ever make money in solar stocks? >> Yes. >> And I've lost money too. I mean I've traded everything over the years but check out array. But what do you what is the technical read? Somebody shows you this chart on a on a trading desk. What do you what do you what's your what's your answer to them? There's nothing here. >> It's a mess. >> It's a mess, right? >> Yeah, it's a messy. I like a ray better. >> So, I can't bring myself to write this one because it just looks it looks weird. All right, I have uh uh one more pair. >> Wait, hang on. What does CBR do before I buy it? I don't care. >> Great. Uh one more pair of stocks. Oil services. This is Baker Hughes. I love this break. I love this breakout. >> I want to buy this, too. >> Look at the look at the long term on Baker Hughes. This seems like pretty momentous above 50. >> Can't this go to 100 bucks? >> I mean, are they still counting rigs? >> Do you Forget about all that. Do you know that >> that's a thing that they do? >> Crude hasn't even rallied yet and this stock is breaking out. When crude goes, this stock really goes and >> Baker and not like Halle Burton. >> Well, that's my next chart. So, so >> Halleberry Here, here's how here's Hallebertton. Hallebertton's already already gone. >> And the Slumb, >> that's also on my list. They all >> go to this restaurant and order the Slumburger. >> No pickles. >> Do you like this bet? You like this Hallebertton better than Baker Hughes? >> I mean, I think I I like energy. I'm Long Energy. I'm getting more Long Energy, you know, oil services, you know, pick which one you like. They're probably going to move together. Higher Beta is going to move more. You know, if you want to get junky, go offshore driller, something like that. But like, you know, if you want to get in energy, you can get in energy. And there's a few ways to get the juice. You can either go down the cap scale and buy some junkier stuff or you can be in the derivatives market with the bigger names. You know, I think either way, >> I think the services names could all rip this year with a tiny bit of help from crude. >> Nobody owns them, >> but you need a much bigger move in crude in order for like the oil producers to make that kind of move. I think the services can just go because they're going to go >> and the refiners have been going but >> and they already broke up. >> Americans just Americans don't own it and I think that there's a squeeze to be had there, right? Because if everybody owns something, it's probably a little too late. The fact that the NASDAQ is 0% energy, S&Ps are 2% energy. Dow's 2% energy. How much less energy could these things be? >> Nobody owns it. >> Nobody's got them. >> Uh, last question. Totally off topic. I just was curious to get your thoughts on it and I forgot to text you. Can prediction markets be analyzed by technicians? >> They're just so illquid. >> Let's say they were more liquid. Let's say they became more popular and there was higher contract volume. Could you look at a yes no chart for any subject and determine um buyers versus sellers or levels? I mean levels. >> At the end of the It's not levels. At the end of the day, what are we doing as technical analysts, as technicians? We're analyzing. >> What are we doing? Oh, we're analyzing the behavior of the market. This >> kid's literally trading. >> I told you I was behind it. >> I'm in CB. >> We're looking at the behavior of the market and market participants. So, if these prediction markets didn't suck so much and they weren't just a bunch of glorified penny stocks. At least the penny stock people tell you that they're penny stocks. These people are like, "Oh, it's the prediction markets." No, you'reing gambling like an idiot, right? Like idiots gamble. >> So, oh, so you're not a fan. >> No, it's not that I'm a fan is that they're nothing. It's an irrelevant penny stocks scam. Like it's not anything. you know, um, Thomas Patter came on Halime Report last week and wanted to debate me. Uh, the founder of Interactive Brokers. Brilliant, brilliant man. Uh, great man. >> Yeah. >> Um, he wanted to debate me. It turns out we didn't really disagree. He had made a statement that he thinks prediction markets will become larger than the securities market. >> Yeah, I heard that. >> I said, >> both the people both said that. >> I said I don't think so. Not because there's no merit to prediction markets. I think the binary nature of them people will lose money and lose interest very quickly. >> You remember binary options? >> Well, yeah. I mean, is is >> they're just rebranding that that was a scam and a lot of people lost money and people went to prison. This is >> what was the binary options thing? What what >> exactly? >> I I totally forgot. I remember the term, but I forgot what people were trading. >> You know, everybody's in >> they're buying up down on a stock. >> Everybody's every it's it's the outcome. It was a binary outcome and that was what the option was and then they canceled all that because people were trying to manipulate that. No, I don't. But Josh's point is >> they're going to say that about the prediction markets. Remember the prediction market? >> No, it's not going away. But people don't I people do not like all or nothing outcomes because with the stock, if you're wrong, you could take all right, I'll take I'll >> I'm an investor now. As a trader, now I'm an investor. >> No, no. I my max loss is 8% and that's it. With the prediction outcomes, for the most part, not for the most part, unless you're buying and selling like unless you're trading them, you're right or you're wrong. You make money, you lose money. >> Well, there's no assets, so there's no liquidity. There's nothing there. It's a fugazi. Like look at the stock market. >> It's positive sum. >> $70 trillion in the stock market and the pie is growing. >> There's like a couple OF HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS. ALL THE PREDICTION MARKETS COMBINED. >> WELL, they just started. >> So why does he think >> it's irrelevant? So Interactive Brokers launched obviously every other brokerage launched prediction markets. So I understand like being promotional about it. I wonder and I wish I got to ask him but it's TV so I had like 20 seconds. I wonder why he thinks that binary bets are going to become a bigger market than the securities markets which includes bonds that why would that happen? >> First of all, the CEO of Koshi said the same thing. But the point is is that >> of course of course he did. >> If you're the CEO of a company, your job is not and I don't know I don't know this guy that you said you were going to fight or whatever. I don't know any of these people. No fighters. He's a legend. He's a legend. He owns 90% of the equity of Interactive. >> I'm sure he loves his kids. My point is is that that's not the point. The CEO of a company is their job is to make money for shareholders, right? So if going on TV and telling the whole world that this penny stock market is going to be bigger than the entire stock market, THAT'S WHAT HIS JOB IS. LIKE even if it's like the dumbest thing in the world, he's helping HIS SHAREHOLDERS AS HE >> 100% RIGHT. Guess guess right. What's a better business? commission free trading or taking a rake in the prediction markets. >> Way better. Uh I think it's interesting that Robin Hood is all in prediction markets. >> Vlad said it too. Vlad's super horny prediction. Never been hornier. He's he told us here on the show and then Schwab's like, "Nah, we're not we're not doing that. >> It's a fade all day." >> Yeah. >> It's the latest It's like the latest gimmick that like people that can't stay focused and they're chasing the next shiny thing. I told >> those are the types of people that are chasing. I said flat, I think everybody's drunk on this stuff. Like, I don't think it's going away. I think it's going to grow, but it is it the way that we're talking about it is so insane in my opinion. >> I think it'll be very very niche. I think it'll be very niche and it'll be a lot of fun to watch like people bet on things and watch the election stuff especially. I can't imagine it becoming like a gigantic market. I just maybe I'm an idiot and will laugh at me in 3 years. I think I'm more on your side. For the record, I hope that you and I are idiots and we're dead wrong because that would be cool. But these are glorified penny stocks with no liquidity and if you are gambling on these things instead of actually owning assets, I think in my humble opinion that you're aing [ __ ] right? And anybody who's telling you to bet instead of investing, >> don't hold back. Don't hold back. Say what you really feel. All right, ladies. >> I hope I'm wrong, >> ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for Thank you for joining us on this edition of the compound and friends. I would like to uh give a huge thanks to our friend JC Perez. JC's research can be found at trendlabs.com. JC personally can be followed on x.com. It's x.com/jc_parx. We have to work on that. We got It's no good. We got to fix that. All right. And you're on LinkedIn. JC Prett CMT as in charge of market technician. Anywhere else people should be going? >> Only fans, right? >> Only fans. Yeah. Um and follow me on the polymarket.com. I got my profile in there. >> That's right. And if you're anywhere within the vicinity of the national championship game on Monday, you will probably be able to hear JC cheering for uh the >> There's other loud, obnoxious Cubans there, by the way. I know >> I'm not the only one. >> All right, guys. Thank you so much for listening. Thanks for watching. We'll see you soon.