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Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. The data doesn't look good under the surface, but yet you look at the markets, everything's at an alltime high all-time high. So, are we in the blowoff phase? I don't know. Are people just getting to the point that they're gambling and speculating because they have no other alternative? Hello everybody and a very special welcome to this finance. We are only 13 days as of this recording into 2026. It feels like we've gone through a whole year. Wow, big things are happening. Back with us to discuss all this and more, Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth Management. Hey Paul, >> good to see you Chris. The treadmill has been fast to start 2026. That's for sure. At least in the news flow. >> Oh gosh. Yeah. the news flow and and by the way it's all across the map but if we just constrain ourselves economically a lot of stuff happening here's what I want to talk about today Paul so um I was trained I mentored I I did a I did day trading for a while and I traded futures and stocks and individual things like that for a while that was actually what I did it's kind of how I cut my teeth on learning the markets but my mentor was a guy named Michael and he always talked about bubbles having a crackup boom phase that there was they get insane They get silly, but then there's this last dash to the top kind of a moment. And I'm asking the question today, Paul, are we are we in a crackup boom? And uh we would note this because of uh certain signals that are out there. Obviously, anybody's been paying attention. Gold at 4,623 as of uh the screenshot I took just a minute before this turned the record on. silver 9129, platinum 2389, copper over six bucks. Um, in these metals, this is this is big news. Turns out tin hits a new record. Tin on the London Metal Exchange in the LME hits a record uh above 51,000. Zero hedge asking maybe every metal trading at an all-time high is inflationary. >> Entirely possible. >> Yeah. Yeah. And and let me skip forward to this one because the Cobasy letter writing this on January 13th, so that's yesterday as of this recording. Current situation, stocks record high, gold record high, silver record high, home prices record high, copper record high, platinum record high, money market funds record high, US debt record high, deficit spending record high, household debt record high. With everything hitting a record high at the same time, it's not a coincidence. He says fiat currencies are depreciating. It could be that. It could be that we're in the crackup boom phase where everything goes up. Um, >> yes. >> What do you think? >> Well, it sure appears that way. I mean, and and that's the challenging thing of where we are right now, especially if you don't for those people who don't have metals and averaging in, right, to not let your emotions take over because when when you have an asset class move this far this fast, I start to worry. And don't get me wrong, as a gold and silver investor and it being inside the portfolios, I shouldn't be getting nervous over the fact that they're moving this fast. But the question is, is this like 2008 and and there's this scrambled to get to what you called the zero tier asset, no counterparty risk, or are we to the point where big investors are finally, you know, saying the governments are just going to print us into oblivion and we would rather own incomeroucing assets and assets over money markets. But then you've got money market balances that are going to all-time highs as well. Debt levels are at an all-time high. And you know, and one thing that I would add to that, there are there are some I'm gonna try to be funny about this, uh, assets that are hitting all-time higher highs really because you've got commodities and in general and even emerging markets are outpacing the s, you know, S&P 500 is representing US stocks so far year to date. And and I think that's something that's relatively important at this point uh, with some of the breakouts that we're starting to see. you know, you had leadership in gold last year. But year to date, the S&P 500 as of right now, um, you know, is up what 6 for the year. Gold is up seven. And emerging markets emodities index, GNX, the Goldman Commodity index is up 4.13 >> this year. >> So this year, yeah, >> 14 days into the year. Yeah. So, all right. So, so that fits the thesis though because you know you and I have been puzzling or maybe I've been puzzling and and you've been polite listening to me puzzle about it a lot which is why is the German market like Germany's a hot mess of a basket case economically right now losing jobs productive industries and yet when we go over to the charts we see the German DAX over here look at this Paul look what it's done this year so it's just powering higher >> it's a complete hot mess um the Dow Jones just on a ruler straight 45 degree launch. S&P up, Russell up, Nikke, Japan is a hot mess right now. >> They're going higher. So the one way we the Euro stocks, the one way we could interpret this then >> is to say that big money has said we'd rather have anything other than a depreciating currency. Particularly, we don't want the bonds of those countries either. like we're not going to hold government assets which includes the paper which is their their treasury bills, bonds, whatever you call them, uh guilts depending on the country or the currency even get me anything else that fits this model because no matter how bad Germany's doing it's probably still better to own the German DAXs than the German bonds at this stage. >> It really certainly appears that way and you know I can I can explain or find some justification for all of those outside of the DAX with what's going on in Germany. I do not understand. And especially why would you be buying the DAX as a German citizen when you can buy anything else and have have better protection. I would rather own another country if I'm sitting there based on what's taking place. >> So, you know, that that the DAX is a mystery to me. I've I've tried to explain it and I just have been able unable to explain it at this point, at least to myself. >> Yeah, I think Japan's kind of in a similar situation at this stage, too. But whatever it but that's an explanatory function which says okay people want to get into anything other than the um government paper which includes the currency of the country also its bonds. So we're seeing in Japan obviously the long bonds this has been a deep concern of mine for a while. Let me pull this chart up here real quick. Look at this. So Japan is just blowing out its yields all across the curve. We're seeing this in their 20 year 30-year 40-year paper. But their 2-year paper, this is this is not just a move, Paul. This is a really violent move. By the way, this was the crisis, the big crisis they had in 0708 here. >> Um, and it's now surpassed that level, but it's also it's this is a crisis sort of a move we're seeing here. It's the it's not always the destination, but it's it's the pace, right? You know, >> there is nothing wrong coming down from the top of the Empire State Building in an elevator, right? It's big problem if you're on the outside of the building without a parachute, right? So >> very good explanation. >> So >> if that move happened over 10 years, no big deal. It hurts a little bit. But the fact that that move has happened that quickly, that's a ridiculous amount of damage that's rippling across uh any investor who owns those assets or banks that have collateral from that. That's a big deal. Remember >> what happened to Silicon Valley Bank? Silicon Valley Bank went down because they had long, you know, 20 and 30year treasuries. they got a little greedy. They were at the end of that curve and when interest rates rose, their collateral collapsed and that took them under. >> So let's imagine for a moment, Paul, that um so it's always you have to track money flows, right? Money flows matter a lot. And because you know it's there is no right price for anything. It's how many people want to buy or sell something at a given level, right? and and that usually if there's a lot of money slloshing around, we just talked about how there's record amounts of money in the US in money market funds, but global M2, which is a broad measure of money, is is just like screaming higher. China's driving that, we're driving that. Um, and so maybe maybe that alone explains this, but you know, here are just the metals, right? And here we're just going back. This is weekly. So this is the beginning of 2025. Here we are at 2026. This is about a year. We're looking about a year's performance. Can you believe that you could buy gold silver for 30 bucks less than a year ago? >> No. And I can't believe it because I remember, but I'm still amazed over how fast silver has moved this quickly. Like that's one of the biggest breakouts of a base that we've seen in a long long time and especially the veracity of the move. It's amazing. >> And gold has just been powering powering powering higher. And it's a much much larger market than silver by dollar value. Uh silver is a tiny market. There's I've heard estimates there's maybe a billion ounces of buyable silver in the world at any one point in time. So that's a hundred billion dollar market at a 100 bucks, right? Gold is a $5 trillion market or something. Um because how much gold is sitting around? All right, but there's two ways we could interpret this. One, blow off top, crack up, boom, M2 is blowing out like crazy. Some people have sniffed that out and said, you know, I think I should have some hard assets, you know. Um and and that's what we're seeing. Or it's also possible, Paul, that what we're seeing is people who have suddenly gotten concerned about the idea of counterparty risk. >> Mhm. >> Right. Which you we know for a fact that there's somebody's on the wrong side of that silver trade. I don't know who it is yet. They haven't admitted it. Is it my bank? I hope not. Is it somebody else's bank? You know, I still hope not. But, you know, we don't know. So there's a sense that I have Paul that maybe some of this represents people coming to the conclusion that they ought to get some of their wealth out of what we'll call the system right >> and that's where you mentioned the way I think about gold post Basel 3 they moved it into what's called a tier one asset it's it's as good as it's good as cash or treasuries on a bank balance sheet it's a tier one asset or tier two assets tier three which are lesser grade I call it a tier zero asset though because you can hold gold and it's not somebody else's liability. It settles the minute you hand it over to somebody else. You don't have to wait for any other mechanism to happen. Um, so I have to wonder if maybe some wealthy families are getting some good advice saying that maybe you should have the same advice you you give of course, which is everybody maybe should have some exposure to precious metals. >> Yes. >> In their hot little hands and all of that, right? >> It sure appears to be that way. I mean, you know, one, the fundamentals are there. When you look at it from a long-term standpoint, the fundamentals are there. And that's the hard part about, you know, gaining exposure when something's moved this far this fast because typically you're going to have moves, you're going to have pullbacks, you're going to have a resting period or consolidation period, but silver has just I mean, gold consolidated from November for a little bit period of time, but silver's just been marching forward like crazy, you know, and what I have to look at from that standpoint, you know, you go back long-term fundamentals. I mean, if you got the Indian government that's incentivized the Indian banks to buy and to accumulate silver and they're allowing them to use this collateral at 10 to one on gold, then if you're an Indian bank, you really are not concerned about the price right now until it gets close to 10 to one relation to gold. So, is that's what taking place? Um, I think there is a component to it of of zero tier asset. The more I've thought about you stating that as a zero tier asset, that's brilliant, Chris, because no counterparty risk. If you have deflation and the system comes apart, yes, the prices are going to come down, but you don't have to worry about having to lose that like you would a stock that has debt or you personally if you have debt and you have deflation, you can't cover that. So, it's a it's a real asset right now that would be protected. And on the other side of that, if the government's just come out and just spin us into oblivion like they have been, I mean, the Trump administration has has not backed off the throttle at all with their fiscal foolishness and spending like they have, and they're just going to print and give everybody money. Well, you've got a limited supply on that silver, gold, tin, copper, you know, any of your commodities out there. So, that may be the case for sure. it has some of the earmarks that we could get to uh a another crisis of some kind, right? And they happen from time to time. We had the Asian currency crisis of 97, you know, we had long-term capital management. We have this that great financial crisis. So that they happen. Um and it's kind of feels just from a feel standpoint, you know, crises are best managed when you have people who can work together and and lock arms and come up with coordinated plans. But I'm not really sure we have anything but a exceedingly fractured political environment here in the US at the moment. >> Yeah. >> And also between countries I I I you know this could be a harder crisis to navigate because I don't know that we have the political buffer and capital in place to do big things that are going to cause everybody to have to like take hits, you know, um at some level. So you have to coordinate that. >> Right. >> Right. Right. And with the debt levels out there, any deflation could cause the system to come apart, period. I mean, once it starts gaining momentum on itself. Now, one thing I want to say that I was wrong about last year, and you know, and the markets are fluid, right? You you you make your best educated guess as to where you are in the cycle based on the lessons that we've learned throughout history. This time last year, I thought because of the data and a lot of things that we have seen that we were that 2025 was going to be closer to the 2000 market top. I wasn't expecting a massive recession, but just a settling down in real estate markets reversion to the mean. Even if we just drop back to expensive from a long-term standpoint in the uh in the overall market indexes from priced to earnings ratio, you're talking about a 30 35% decline. But, you know, from 2000 to 2003, S&P 500 went down 47%. The NASDAQ went down about 80 after that internet bubble burst. That's kind of what I was expecting. Obviously, we didn't have that last year. Fiscal spending, you know, all this euphoria around the AI trade has kept this game going with liquidity and and consumers still continuing to spend, especially at the topper end of the economy and borrowing money. I'm more concerned now and the question I'm asking is what happens between now and midsummer. So, 2008 was a major crisis that we came into. Gold spiked, commodities spiked, markets went flat, and commodities in general, especially oil, just skyrocketed up into summer of 2008. Now, my concern is, and when when gold and silver is moving this fast, if it is a counterparty risk concern, are they positioning in a hurry because they're more concerned about not about whether silver drops from 90 back to 50 or 60? you know, that's a buying opportunity for those that have got capital available, but more concerned about, hey, I don't want to own this stock or I don't want to own this treasury because if yields blow out, right, you know, you're going to lose money. So, so for your investors out there, believe it or not, there are more lawsuits in the investment world over bonds than there are stocks because most people don't really understand how bonds work. So, imagine a seessaw. So, if you're in 20-year treasuries, for example, and you're earning 3% or whatever the yield is right now, 3 and a.5%. And interest rates go to 10, well, you'll get that capital back 20 years when it matures, but you're going to have to adjust to the market rate. So, you're going to I can't remember the numbers, but you're going to have about a 50% decline in that in that principle, that capital. Well, if you're a bank, that's 50% decline in your collateral. That puts the bank at risk unless the government keeps you from having to market to market. If you're a pension fund, that's less capital that you're going to have to cover your your cash flow obligations that go out there. So pensions and banks are restricted on what they have the ability as far as their parameters. But big investors that would normally sit in 20-year treasuries, obviously, I'm not going to take the risk to own those. I would rather own gold or silver or commodities in general or even a business that could produce some cash flow that doesn't have so much debt, right? Because I want it to be able to survive if we have that deflationary decline. And that's my concern about what we're seeing right now. Are there big players that understand the consumers tapped out? They're the governments are just trying to buy time and we're close to at a minimum stumbling economically or having a cat catastrophic uh trip up and and crash right before the finish line. And and that's my concern about this year with what's taking place with those prices and especially, you know, like one of the commodity indexes I track has been consolidating really for about seven years and it's finally starting to break out now. So, we had the gold move, then we had the silver move, now we've got the tin move and all these other areas. What happens when, you know, cattle prices have been continuing to climb? What happens when all of these commodities that we need on a daily basis? And then what happens if oil starts to follow suit behind? Then we're going to be in a 1970s type high inflation, poor economic growth, stagflationary type environment. >> Well, we talked about that that the double hump inflation. It's still it's still actively on my radar screen. Paul, we're going to hear from our sponsor, but when we come back, I want to talk about just how stressed uh the consumer really is at this point in time. You were sharing with me a survey before. So, when we come back, we're going to take a look at uh just how how on the edge I think things really are. We'll be right back. Hey folks, Chris Martinson here. Look, we've all been there, watching our hard-earned dollars get chewed up by this endless inflation machine while the folks in Washington and the big banks continue to play games with our money like it's monopoly cash or something. It's not right. I know it and you know it. The trust in the system, it's eroding faster than a sand castle at high tide, especially with all the geopolitical storms brewing. Now, I've been saying it for years. Got to protect yourself, your family, from all this nonsense. That's why I personally turn to gold and silver. The real deal physical stuff that you can hold in your hands under your control, not some digital promise that could vanish overnight. Everyone should own some. It's just common sense in times like these. But here's the thing. When I need it stored securely away from prying eyes, I use Gold Core. They're the ones I trust. They ship it right to your door really quick if you want to hold it in your hands, but also if you prefer, they can stash it in top tier vaults in places like Switzerland or Singapore or right here in the United States. Your call, your medal. And for you, my friends who follow Peak Prosperity, they'll hook you up with the first 6 months of storage absolutely free. That's how much they value real people like us. Buying and selling. Hey, it's as easy as trading stocks, but way better because with Gold Core, you're the sole owner. Fully allocated, fully segregated in your name only. No sharing with strangers. No funny business, no security entitlement nonsense. Need cash fast? Sell in seconds at market price. Want it in your hands? Hey, one click and it's shipped. They've got everything from coins and bars to allowing for self-directed IAS. All locked down and secure. It's simple. It's safe. and straightforward. Take charge of your future, folks. Don't wait for the system to fail you any further. Head over to peak.ban/goldcore. That's peak.ban/goldcore right now and claim that free storage. You won't regret it. I sure don't. All right, welcome back everybody. Paul, um, can we talk about how stressed out the the consumers really are? Those were shocking results that you had uh surfaced there from that >> um >> yes >> survey. I I'm sorry I forget who did that. Um >> so it was my goodness and it escaped me right now here real quick. So I'll share it with you. >> Y >> and I was blown away by this. I mean I wasn't because I'm seeing this but this was uh Ré now. So Ré now is a company that helps individuals that are looking for jobs find work. This came out on uh January the 5th. So they're analyzing the job market. They do a lot of surveys with your your employed individuals. Now, one thing I want you listeners to to remember here, this is the resume now is 2026 cost of living crunch report. Okay? So, they're only interviewing employed individuals. Only interviewing employed individuals. So, here's the key findings in this. >> So, the headlines are paychecks are falling behind. >> Only 12% of workers say that their wages have kept pace with inflation. Only 12%. Now, what does that do? That confirms the K-shaped economy that we've been talking about that the top 10 to 15% are doing okay where everybody else is struggling. So, they also found that just 17% of Americans feel financially secure enough to cover essentials and save. And that's one of the things that you know with a lot I only do this for existing clients and we're very careful on what we're doing but 401ks simple you know business retirement plans that we're we're working with. We're seeing a large number larger number now may maybe this is a small environment. We've got a a footprint across the Southeast of employees who are taking inservice distributions or loans are cashing out because they just can't keep up with the cost of living. And what's happening, especially since insurance premiums have been going up, the lag that's coming through with property taxes, homeowners insurance, and even rent still, at least in this area. So, and then it talks about just affordability is eroding fast. So, nearly four and 10 say their ability to afford basics has worsened this year. So that's 40% and another 35% saw no improvement at all. So that's nearly you know 75% of the workers that are either um falling behind and 35% seen no no improvement at all. Here's another 65% site that essentials not luxuries are driving stress. So the cost of everyday necessities is their biggest strain. I mean just basic cost of living is causing them stress at this point because of the inflationary pressures. >> Twothirds twothirds of working people working people >> working people. This is not people that are unemployed looking for a job. This is not the people who had high income salaries that lost their job that thought they'd be able to find a job in 90 days. They're stressed to the max, right? Because there's people out there that have been going a year. Now that leads us to 92% of employed individuals are cutting back on spending even on essential items. Now take that into consideration when you had Trump come out and just talk about how pay uh pay increases have been the largest that we've seen. You know, however he bloiates over that. >> Mhm. >> And then and then this is another thing that's concerning to me and I'm I'm hearing it around the edges from family members, you know, um uh uh clients who have family members that are talking about this. households are draining their safety nets. So 49% had to dip into savings and 24% took on debt. Now this I think this is a very important statement. So they state here clear signs of widespread financial distress. And then and then you've got Americans that are increasingly turning to outside help. So 46% of employed workers rely on more family support, government aid or debt than they did last year. Only 13% rely on less. So again, we thought this was going to be for Main Street. Yes, there are some of the 13% that's in Main Street, but the the difference between Wall Street and Main Street is, you know, that K-shaped economy. There's a minor group of employed workers that are actually doing better or relying on less. And then this is this is one thing that concerns me. I have people that push back against 24 months worth of your cost of living, your expenses and savings. That emergency fund is the difference between surviving an economic crisis or a loss of a job and versus going further behind. So 60% say they could only cover 3 months or less of expenses if they lost their jobs. Okay, 60% of employed workers. So that means they don't have the ability to save. They're they they they they're they don't even have because of whatever reason either foolish spending or the lack of ability to save less than 3 months. And if we hit an economic calamity, if we have, you know, if if our economy stumbles later this year and we had anything similar to the 2008, that's absolutely going to be financially devastating for those individuals that that have less than 3 months worth of expenses because it's going to take some time for things to reset if we do actually revert back to the mean in any way. So, I want to take the opportunity for you listeners that are out there for the clients we're serving because we run riskmanaged strategies. I'm comfortable 12 months or less. Not not less. 12 months. 12 months. For those that are in a passive strategy, you're fully invested mostly. Look, I can't give you personal advice. You got to go talk to somebody. But here's the thing that wisdom dictates. Get you about 24 months worth of emergency funds set aside. If it sacrifices to inflation, that's okay because if we do have a deflationary or an economic crisis that comes through, you're better prepared to get through that. And maybe you draw that 24 months down to zero, but you're not having to go out and borrow a bunch of money to get through this and stacking debt up on top of debt. So, you know, we're in a very precarious position. These are employed workers. That's what shocked me about this survey. Employed workers. Okay? And and then you take on top of that, I think I've got it here, uh, Chris, we hear about how great the economy is. Let me see. I think it was Zero Hedge that put that out. Yeah. So, jobs for every month of 2025. Well, if I can find you again. There you are. Um, jobs for every month of 2025 have been revised lower in hindsight. Headline number is great. So, Zero Hedge posted this on Twitter and it talks about negative revisions, but go take a look at this. So you get the headline number every single month it's been res revised lower and look how how much greater the revision was in June and look how bad it was in October. Add on top of that because of the government shutdown there's still a lot of economic data that we're not getting right now that they still haven't updated or releasing. And the question is whether they going to are they trying to just keep us from having bad news and hoping they can spend enough money to push us through? I don't know the answer to that, >> but the data doesn't look good under the surface. But yet, you look at the markets, everything's at an alltime high, all-time high. So, are we in the blowoff phase? I don't know. Are people just getting to the point that they're gambling and speculating because they have no other alternative? It it it feels like we're at that part of the cycle for sure. Well, I I have a an explanation that I I tweeted out the other day potentially, and this is actually shocking to me. Okay, I'm I'm morally shocked by what I'm about to show everybody here. And this lays directly at the feet of the Federal Reserve as enabled by the US government. Okay? And and so this is the data when you look at the increase in wealth. So this is mostly financial wealth. And we're comparing the top.1% of households. That's 135,255 households compared to the bottom 50% of the country, which is 67,545,319 households. So you divide one into the other, it's 500 to one. So for every 1.1% household, there's 500 of these other ones down here. Okay, this how how the math works. All right, so look at this. since so we had the great financial crisis and you know run in the run-up to that with all the housing boom and all that and everything these people the top.1% expanded their net worth from 4 to8 trillion and then oh no Paul they fell back to six terrible terrible think of the suffering that was going on there and then the Fed started printing like crazy here in 2008 9 10 11 12 13 14 all the way up here it has it started to hiccup in late 2019 with the repo crisis and then co and they printed all this money. Would you look at this, Paul? That's $1 trillion of gain to the.1% to these just these very few households. Meanwhile, through that entire time, the bottom 50% managed to struggle its way up to collective total of $4 trillion of wealth compared to $23 trillion of wealth for for those few families. All right, so these people, they just got a free 11 trillion to their name. If you're them, what do you do? There's I mean, what do you do? Buy a slightly bigger yacht, a few extra jets, you know, you really can't spend that much money. So, you know where it's going? It's going into financial assets. It's going into private equity. It's going into it has to go somewhere, right? >> Mhm. Well, a this is deeply unfair because what the Fed just did was they gave the largest single handout to a very tiny group of people who, by the way, through all of history had to struggle till 2015 from all of history to hit the first 11 trillion and then they got the next 11 trillion in the last 5 years, right? And this is a policy. This is what the Federal Reserve does when they do their QE, you know, bailouts, stealth this, whatever, swap agreements. Who even knows what they're doing behind the scenes? This is what has created massive inflation. >> But in what? Well, the things these people can buy mostly. Um, that's where you get massive inflation, right? That That's right. And it's created monopolies, Chris. So those individuals, whether they're doing it under the same name, they're doing it through private equity, they're going and creating monopolies. And then once they get that pricing power, they're further increasing their profits at the expense of the other 90%. >> Yep. you know this and and the worst thing the one the most shocking thing that that that I remember when I went back and did a deep dive and just took my time and spent a year trying to study what happened leading up to the great depression during the great depression and after the great depression and I can't remember the statistics so that that jarred my thought but but essentially during the great depression at the peak of 1929 about 90% of the assets were owned by 10% of the population. Okay, it's even worse than that. Now, the shocking and surprising thing on the other side of the Great Depress depression when you had those institutions collapse and and everybody kind of had to start over from again. By the 1950s, if I remember correctly, I may be off on this, but it's going to be pretty close. 90% of the wealth uh was held by was owned by 50% of the population. Okay, so 50% was spread out more evenly. And what do we think of when we go back to the 1950s? You could earn a good living for the average individual. Somebody could work at the gas station. They could be a mechanic, have two or three kids with their wife at home, live in a a middle class, a nice home, take a good vacation each year, and still be able to save money. So we've gotten to the point where what what the Federal Reserve has done first it started with with globalization where where US companies were shipping manufacturing overseas in the 1990s. Then you had Greenspan playing his financial games leading up to the internet bubble. >> Then you had manipulated interest rates leading to the housing bubble. And now it's just we're just going to spew as much money out there as we can. And you can't tell me that those in the halls of power don't know what's happening because they're all benefiting from it, right? I mean, they're they're all so wealthy in the halls of power. What is it? Jerome Pal's net worth, 100 122 million as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Now, you get to that position, you should have a higher net worth, right? But 120 million or so, you really don't understand what the average person is is experiencing because because I had a very wealthy individual one time made the comment, surround yourselves with people who earn the same income that you do. And at first I was like, wait a minute, so you're going to choose your friends based on how much money they have. So this individual had was trying to apply wisdom to it. And he said, "Well, if you're running around with individuals that aren't making as much as you and you want to go on a trip, they're going to make themselves go broke going, right? Because they can't afford to do what you're doing or you're going to have to pay their way. Either way, you're going to have some resentment in that relationship." So, my point being is they tend to surround themselves with like-minded individuals, same trips. They're so detached from the average individual now, they're not flying comfort plus or or main economy when they go somewhere. They're on private jets. They don't know what's actually taking place, but they're thrilled from all their friends talking about how much money they're making in stocks and how great this economy is for them. And that detachment is going to lead to to continued pain for the average individual until somehow we revolt enough or find the individuals that the last thing they want to do is get into politics. They set up some type of accountability system and then they go fight the system. Well, and remember Paul too that that what happened in CO that that is contributing to this the shocking thing. Remember, oh, are you a small boutique restaurant? You know, you have to close down. >> Or are you McDonald's? You get to stay open. Oh, are you a little shop on Main Street? You're going to have to close down. Target, you can stay open. It was pure nonsense. But if you strip it away, that nonsense played out everywhere. You know, it wasn't like LA had a slightly different approach from Chicago. It was absolute warfare on mom and pop >> conducted by corporations during a moment of crisis that ended up leading to some of this. Right. You got some Walton wealth going on in there. Right. >> Well, and that reminds me of what what was it? Mark Andre had a meeting with the Biden administration and came out and started talking publicly. Was it Andre? >> Yeah. That was >> that said basically they wanted monopolies. They wanted a a handful of companies in every major industry that they could communicate or control with. So, I mean, it's been a war on the small business. It's been a war on the middle class and and that war is continuing right now because we look at employed individuals and they're hurting. They're hurting. And at what point, you know, that treadmill keeps getting faster and faster and faster. And one thing that I see that's a common theme when I'm talking to business owners and and individuals across the board, government regulations is more paperwork and more paperwork and more paperwork and and people's losing their ability to save, especially those younger generations. And the younger generation can't even afford to consider a house. And if they do buy a car at this point, the insurance is so expensive and the cars are so expensive and the repairs are so expensive because I fully believe these corporations are not making things to last. They make them to have a a a defined life to where they've got built-in profits going forward. That's just a pure lack of integrity in our society. And what we know in the wisdom of history is weak men that give into their base desires for greed and lust and selfishness and narcissistic capabilities create hard times. And out of those hard times, the cycle will start again where good people take control. And we're just in a position right now where where it seems to me there are only one or two that are that are paying a price for for trying to walk the path less traveled. But we have a lot of weakened men and women that are in control of the levers that are driving the economy and we're all going to be suffering for it. Even those that think that they're shielded. You're not going to get through this without some bumps and bruises. Even if the Lord grants you the wisdom to navigate it near perfectly. Well, even if you do, you're you're going to be around neighbors who aren't going to have navigated it very well. It's just going to happen, right? People who um you know, theoretically have ears to hear and eyes to see, but but won't avail of the wisdom, right? That we know that's going to happen. And um by the way, at this point in in the story though, Paul, I I've done I've spent, you know, my last 20 years of my life uh trying to alert people, warn people about these things. And uh I feel good about those efforts. And I've also come to the conclusion that we're at this stage of the story where if somebody is in ignorance today, that's a choice they're making. >> Yes. >> And sometimes choices have consequences. And I think in this case, if you choose to be ignorant, there's going to be a lot of consequences. I get annoyed with it because I know that I'm going to have to pay in some way for the ignorance of people near me who refuse to look at this stuff. And then the crisis is going to happen and then they're going to come knocking saying, "Share with me or or help me, you know, and I'm going to be like That would have been so much easier last year, you know. >> That's right. >> I could have helped you help yourself, you know. >> Yes. But people just don't want to. They get caught up in trying to keep up with the Joneses and what's taking place and they want to stay with the herd. And that's painful, especially when it's in control. And that leads me to something that I want to share that I showed. Like I I think this applies to the markets as well for an investment strategy. But last night, I was just perusing through and and one thing that's neat, y'all. I have started the Bible in a year chronologically, and I have thoroughly enjoyed it so far. First time I've ever done the Bible chronologically. And I'm ahead of schedule at this point because it's so fascinating. But this was a a post from I never I don't follow the Holy Holy Bible on Twitter, but it popped up. Satan's strategy is simple. So, look at Satan from the standpoint of the destroyer, right? that they don't want what's best for you. Make sin look normal and make righteousness look weird. So that's the herd, right? That's always the way it is. The herd's headed up that way. And I know that looks like the sheep are going off the cliff. That's actually trees they put over there. But it leads to the point that they go off the cliff, right? Either that or it's abstract. But that's the ultimate end result. >> And and it takes a lot of courage to walk that path less traveled. It takes thoughtful decisions and you know the Bible says with fear and trembling you know ponder the steps of your feet. I butchered that completely for those that know the scripture exact uh completely but that's the spirit of it. Take each step with fear and trembling not and the but the Bible tells us not to fear. We have to ponder our steps. You know we need politicians and the few that are actually trying to go in that separate uh path. They're taking a lot of heat right now. So, you know, the thing that we have to do, and I encourage all the listeners out there, the truth hurts, right? Like, I mean, I have I mean, my wife, I've been, you know, Holly and I have been I think we're coming up on 28 years this year. She knows my weaknesses and there's times where she calls me out for something that I'm blind for. And at first, I'm like, "Oh, man, that hurt." And your initial reaction is to defend yourself. But I've learned if I want to be humble before the Lord, it's like just receive it. Ask yourself, is it the truth, feel the pain of it, confess it, and figure out what you need to do to change your behavior, right? Or your tendencies. So, we have to, especially now, to navigate going forward is love the truth and pursue it with all of our hearts and have the courage to follow it wherever it'll take us. Right? I mean for for some people that are waking up to what's taking place that's that's has you have to embrace courage to change the allocation in your portfolio to walk away from the passive investing. Is there a guarantee that a riskmanage strategy is going to going to be the best performer? In no way whatsoever. Okay. But you're better to do something besides passive when it's clear that the that the direction that we're heading in ultimately ends in destruction. We just don't know when and exactly how destructive it's going to be. But it is not going to be good when this when when these plates that they're spinning start to come apart, start to drop or the engine that they've been run redlinining without changing the oil for 60 or 70,000 miles, which you have to have a recession to theoretically change the oil in the economy because you got to slow it down enough to where you can, you know, repair what needs to be repaired. we get into a situation where the engine sees us all at once and and that's going to be hard to navigate. It's going to be very challenging to navigate. >> Well, I actually don't know that there is a navigation path at this point. Um because we have a math problem, right? The math problem is that we decoupled our currency and debt markets from gold in 1971. >> And it turned out that you could really kick that can for a long time. And so in the United States as of today, there's about $ 105 trillion of debt. It's a big number. It's like very big number. >> Huge number. >> And that has to be paid back out of future production, right? Which is multiples of our current GDP. So how are we going to pay that back? But we have no intention of doing that. We just keep putting more and more and more on, right? It it's just like if we're talking about a household, Paul, and I said, here's their balance sheet. They're in hawk. They earn 100,000, but they owe 300,000, which is about the ratio here. Um, and by the way, their credit card bill goes up every month. It never goes down, >> right? >> You wouldn't have to stare at that too long to say, "Wow, eventually this this household gets in trouble." And if that was 10 households grouped together, all 10 would be in trouble, right? And if it's a million households, all million are in trouble. If it's a whole nation, the nation's in trouble, right? And you know, that's that's the issue. And but this is a a glo this is this is a feature of debt based fiat money systems. That's why Japan is in such trouble right now. It's why Europe's in such trouble. That's why all of us are in such trouble because nobody had the courage to stand up and say we can't keep doing it this way, right? So, they're going to run it and until they break it. But the thing that really annoys me is that while they're busy breaking it, the they in this story, the people who have the re levers of power, they're busy enriching themselves as fast as they can at the very end. And and they're just they're just grinding everybody else down. I mean, did you see this that US workers get the smallest slice of the economic pie on record since this data began in the 1940s? Normally between 62 64% of the economy goes to labor. People go to work. They get a paycheck. >> They're taking home about well round up you know 2/3 of the pie and oneird of the pie goes back to capital. But it started eroding here in 2000 when the Fed got really scared and activist and interventionist and it bottomed out here about 2012. They started to labor started to claw back a little. Then oh no, 2020 they just got crushed again. And then this last down leg right here, that's AI just absolutely crushing wages for people. Um, you know, and all that, right? So look at this. I mean, it's just it's very clear this is a war on labor. The Federal Reserve has said, "No, we like capital. We're going to reward capital. Anybody who has capital already has capital." So, you know, and it was Janet Yellen, remember? She gave this really terrible speech one day and and she basically said, "Hey, if you want to get rich in this in the in the United States, it's not that hard. You could do one of three things." And one of them is have rich parents that you inherit money from. >> Oh my gosh. >> Remember she said that? She actually said it out loud. I was like, "Oo, Janet, can't do that." But that's what annoys me about all this is is that we're still there's still this pretend game like everything's okay. So, let's back up to those statistics you just shared with us. twothirds I think they was 65%. Twothirds of people say, "Wow, just basic essentials are pinching me now." Twothirds of people with jobs, right? Half, I think it was 48% said, "I am leaning on family more and more. You know, I I got to get got to get a little help here." Um, those are deeply unhealthy statistics. And it doesn't help when Trump comes out and says, "Best economy ever," and we get these fictitious 4% GDP readings uh that are just fake, right? Um, and all of that. And so that's the tension that's building and I think people need to be aware of it because how you how you navigate this is going to be really really tricky. Um so >> it really is and and and look the importance of navigating it is is there's a there's an aspect of self-preservation. I haven't said this in a long time but we said it a lot a couple of years ago or a year ago. We have to play the game by the rules that are forced upon us. We don't have the capacity to change the rules of the game. Okay. Now there are some who operate outside the rules and that's fraud but but that's not that's not a strategic u um move that that anybody should make quite frankly. So we got to play the game by the rules that are forced upon us. But but I don't believe that that being passive is the way to do it. Yes, you have your foot in the game and you've got to participate while these asset prices are going higher because you have to protect yourself against inflation. But you also have to brace embrace the truth of the fact that this is unsustainable. It's absolutely unsustainable. Now, it breaks one of two ways. We don't know which way it breaks. I still believe that we have a deflationary impulse before we have that inflationary holocaust. But I could be absolutely completely wrong about that. And you know what? It's okay because I'm not positioned for a deflationary holocaust right now except with a small part of the portfolio because we just can't find a good riskreward place to put it to work. The assets that we have in in the strategies are working really good right now. That's playing the game by the rules that are forced upon us. But if we start to teeter, if you don't have something that tells you to lower that risk and we don't get the inflationary holocaust and we get a 50 60 70% decline like what happened, you know, 50% decline in 1974 took us to a price to earnings ratio on the general S&P 500 market of of less than 10. You know, right now to get there, that's a 70% decline. Okay? If it took 15 years to recover and you're 55 or 60 or 65, let's say it takes 25 years to recover, your retirement's gone just like that. Okay? And your ability to shield if you've accumulated that wealth, your family. So, you have to be adaptive to where you can sidestep that. Are you going to pick the top of the market? Absolutely not. But if you only lose 10 or 15% and the market goes down 70, that's a pretty successful investment strategy, right? You're still going to get your feelings hurt because you lost 10 or 15%. But if you look at the real big picture, you're in a far better position because a 10 or 15 20% decline is not going to wipe somebody out. A 50 60 70 even 40% decline can completely derail somebody's uh retirement strategy. Now, if we're anticipating that that's a possibility, but you have some rules and a strategy that can keep your emotions in check based on my sign. And I think you can see it back there if I have to draw a little bit. >> Um, >> and we just go into this inflationary holocaust and prices don't go up 20% or assets don't go up 20% a year, they go up 40% a year. Well, is the S&P 500 going to be the the best place to be? I mean, first 14 days of the year, it's going up. It's hitting all-time highs, but it's not going up as fast as commodities and emerging markets and other assets. So you can there's still opportunity if that happens where you can adapt that portfolio based on strategies that guide you in that direction. Is it going to be scary? Absolutely it's going to be scary. But that's where you have to f you know you have to have a strategy in place that's adaptive that you know that can adapt to whatever markets coming and then you have to have the courage to follow that. And that and that's the hard part because if you're convinc if you're convinced that passive is the best way to do it, then guess what? You have to rely on somebody else to make it work. You have to rely on somebody else to pull off something that's not been pulled off in all the cycles in history and then theoretically you're just going to go play all the time and you don't have to worry about it. What part of our lives has passive worked? How do you get a promotion at job? If you're just going to go, you know, within a corporation where there's good competition if you just passively go in and sit at your desk and answer the phone and do what you're told every day instead of being proactive and active to try to be the best that you can be at what you do. So that's a philosophy from my standpoint. History shows us that that passive is not a strategy because all you're falling on is hope at that point. It might work for a period of time but the question is it can it survive full economic cycles throughout history and cycles continue uh have been in the past and they will continue in the future because it falls back to our basic human nature. The one thing that we've not been able to solve in spite of all the knowledge that we have at this point when we come back Paul we're going to hear from our sponsor. Now, when we come back, I want to talk about why I think we're potentially going to see we're not going to see that deflationary outcome. Uh this is I I found this actually also quite shocking. Uh and again, it's only 2 weeks into the year. We'll be right back. Markets are facing heightened uncertainty and thoughtful portfolio management has never been more important. If your current strategy relies solely on passive investing or diversification without active oversight, it may be time to consider a different approach. At Peak Financial Investing, we connect you with experienced wealth managers who actively manage portfolios using disciplined, research-driven strategies designed to adapt to evolving market conditions. Our focus is on helping clients navigate volatility with clarity and confidence. While no investment strategy can guarantee results or eliminate risk, we believe that preparation and active management can make a meaningful difference over time. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com to schedule a complimentary consultation and explore whether our approach aligns with your goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson and I am proud to support Peak Financial Investing. This is not a guarantee of future performance, but a call to take your financial planning seriously. Again, that's peakfinancialinvesting.com. Investing, of course, involves risk, including the potential loss of principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified adviser before making investment decisions. Welcome back, everybody. Now, we're going to get down to this shocking part. Paul, did you hear this? Did you actually take a listen to this? >> I listened to it 14 or 15 times. All right, let's do 16. >> Let's let's get everybody in. This is Jay Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve. He's reacting to the most bizarre thing that I can possibly imagine, which is criminal charges got dropped off against him at the Federal Reserve. >> Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. I have deep respect for the He looks more He looks run down, doesn't he? >> He really does. >> He He is He's not looking happy. So, so it's testimony he gave about a $3.1 billion was supposed to be $2.5 billion whatever cost overruns but multi-billion dollar renovation of their buildings and and the mayor's actually building um I I actually drove by it three times last year when I went to that couple things in DC. They have all the big concrete you know those those debris shoots coming out the windows and cranes everywhere. So, yep. They're they're doing a thing and apparently he lied I don't know what he lied about. I think it was about how much it was costing >> rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure. This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role. The Fed through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. >> So he's saying this is about his not dropping rates fast enough. Now he doesn't present any evidence for that. That's kind of speculation. Paul, how amazing is this that we have the chairman of the Federal Reserve show throwing some shade over saying, "Hey, I think some bogus charges got whipped up against me to pressure me." You know, this is terrible. It's amazing actually. That's that's why I just I I'm listening to it like I've heard it the first time even though I've listened to it many times. It's amazing. >> Those are pretexts. >> Pretext. He says >> the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president. >> What will best serve the public? Did we just not do I have to Don't make me show the chart again. the public got high prices. 135,000 households got stupidly rich. That's the policy he set. I I despise this, Paul, where they're like, "We're we're just operating in the best interest of the public." I'm like, >> "Yeah, that's >> not the whole public." >> Yeah, that's a that's a delusion on his part. He's been given over to a repbate mind. >> Agreed. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation. I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. You know what's a little ironic here, Paul, is is he's saying that the reason it jumped from two billion to three billion is because of cost overruns and inflation that he created. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Golly, >> I'm not buying it. I I'm an end the Fed kind of guy. I honestly think that Milton Friedman was right. You could run monetary policy off of a laptop. You don't need a $3 billion building, right? All you have to do is just follow what the market is setting for the 2-year rate and make sure there's ample liquidity in the marketplace to to to support that. >> That's it. >> Correct. It's the whole thing. Literally, you could you could program that in. You don't need all this all this rigomeroll. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. >> Thank you. What an extraordinary statement. >> I know it was that I I was just shocked. Have you ever seen anything like that for No, >> I haven't. I mean, just just another mile marker or road sign of where we are at this part of the journey. No doubt. And >> No, no, go ahead. I'm going to carry on from there. >> Well, and what I was thinking about, you know, you're talking about free market. get rid of the Fed and let the free market. I can't remember what bank it was, but you know, Trump comes out and says he's going to wants to cap uh credit card interest rates at 10%. Well, now all of a sudden they're coming out, no, let the free market run it. Let the free market run it. Okay. Well, what's the Fed doing? That's not allowing the free market to operate, right? >> Okay. >> So, you know, he's boxed them in a corner where they're arguing against the one institution that's basically bailed them out and supported all of their profits at the expense of the American people. Well, I'll tell you what. I would be more sensitive, you know, to to hearing what Jerome has to say if we the people were allowed to have a full transaction level audit. Every crevice, every nook and cranny, every cushion in the sofa, we get to look under and find out where all this money has been going. Because I'm I'm convinced of one thing beyond a shadow of a doubt, Paul, that if you give people unlimited power and no oversight, it's going to get abused. >> Oh, yeah. That's absolutely >> just how humans are. Okay, you know how many Congress people, you know, ended up, you know, coming in broke and and leaving with 20 million after a term, right? You know, it's just it's that's just how it kind of is, right? That's people. We don't have a full audit of the Fed. I guarantee you there's some stuff that's gone on there. It's just >> going to be a little awkward when we when we uncover it, right? >> Well, I mean, you know, there was insider trading. We know that they were trading off of their policies in 2020 and and all of that. So, if if you're going to be insertter trading, that's just a you know, that's a a less um they're admitting to doing unethical activities within the halls of the Federal Reserve. And that's a that that's a way of letting people know what's taking place without other ways that they could be fraudulent and lying their own pockets at the expense of the American people. I mean, the classic thing is like I remember when our local courthouse was remodeled several years ago and I I can't remember. I think it was supposed to be like 12 million. I'm just picking a number that the budget, but it came in at like 26 or 27 million. Well, come to find out the guy was, you know, basically that was over the the remodel was getting kickbacks from all of these people that he was bringing in there and just paying them large sums above and not using anybody local. so that the rumor didn't get around town and the guy gets away with it and everybody knows he did it because there was no accountability and there was no full audit and no full no no transparency to what was taking place to solve all of this. That's what we need. Bring everything out into the light. Audit the Fed. It is what it is. If you got to get rid of them and put them in jail, set an example. And if you want, I don't believe we should keep the Fed, but if you're going to keep the Fed, it should be a glass house because and all of our politicians in government should be a glass house. If you want to get into politics, I think your your financial records across the board, every source of income to you and your family should be completely transparent. That's the only way to have a hedge against the fraud. >> What a what what it's almost like we planned this. What a setup, Paul, because this is the glass house. This is a $3 billion renovation. And I'm I'm looking at this. I'm like, where have I seen this before? Where have I Oh, yeah, that's right. I stayed at a Marriott in Pamis, New Jersey once. I mean, it looks the same like three billion for that. I want this to look like the the Palace of Versailles. This should be like ornate and gilded. This look this offends me just as an American that we're we're spending billions of dollars for what looks like a hotel lobby. Uh it's just it's just gross. >> Yeah. >> For that amount. For that amount, it should look like the Taj Mahal. >> Yeah. >> Or Anchor White in Cambodia. Build something that's just absolutely unbelievable that'll last for, you know, hundreds if not thousands of years. That's going to have to be remodeled down the road again at some point and line the pockets of a different set of individuals. The rumors, and these are all rumors, this this was the shocks keep coming. So, the rumor I heard is that somebody's being considered to replace Jerome Powell by the Trump administration is the CIO of BlackRock. As close as you can get to Larry Frink without it actually being Larry Fink. >> I mean, that's just going to enshrine that the looting operation, right? And so, uh, I I think the the message I have is for everybody who's not in the 0.1%, we're going to have to work hard to just keep what we have on a relative basis. Um, I'm not trying to get stinking rich, not a lot of greed here, just how do I not lose a lot because these people are going to absolutely wreck this place. Now, remember, as Plutarch said, the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics is a gap between the rich and the poor, right? So, so you do have that. Um and then at our website in peak prosperity west coast posted this and and Richard Duncan the economist banker guy he posted this today and it's from Aristotle who said it's also in the interest of the tyrant to make his subjects poor. The people are so occupied with their daily tasks that they have no time for plotting. um th that it's starting to feel intentional to me, Paul, that you can't accidentally throw the 90% under the bus wheels, right? You know, what was the statistic you just said? 93% now or 92% are having to just dial back their spending of of employed people, right? >> Yes. >> Is that just an accident? You know, is it just an accident that Drum didn't notice for the past 5 years that only the 0.1% was getting stinken rich? That you just didn't notice, right? Somehow missed the data. By the way, the data comes off his own website. Um, so it's feeling intentional and and so I I just wonder if there isn't some intentionality behind this that um you you can't be accidentally wrong all the time. You can't and you can't be that foolish all the time, right? I mean, let's just say it's just pure foolishness. Then you're not going to be foolish all the time. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then, especially when they're putting the data off their own website. Mhm. >> But you take into consideration of that, they're not only doing it through loss of purchasing power, they're doing it through paper pushing. Like the teachers that I talked to have so much paperwork that they have to do now for government reporting. >> You've got all these 1099s that you have to do because they want to track down everything down to anything over is it $500 or $300 or $600, however it is. Now, you got to end out all these 1099s. That's more work, more paperwork you got to get. So they do it through government regulations which which burdens the individual and reduces their ability to have free thinking, creative thinking. It also raises the barrier to entry which protects those monopolies. And once they get those monopolistic powers, they have pricing power. Your level of service goes down and and you're stuck, right? You're you're you know, you're on this treadmill and if you stumble, we're to the point now and that's that's the worst part. That's the reason when I counsel younger kids and individuals that are hitting the workforce, start saving 15% of what you're making right now before you get used to the lifestyle that your income is and and set that aside so that you can build some freedom inside of there. So, you have some capacity within that treadmill and you have some flexibility so that if you have a business idea, you can go out and start it. If you lose your job, you're not going to fall behind forever. or if you're or if if you're asked to do something at work that is ethically immoral that you have the capacity to walk away from that job and go somewhere else without losing your home and your car and potentially not feeding your kids or having to rely on family. But that's not the way that they're teaching us in society and in the education system even in college. They're not teaching people how to manage money, but they spend a lot of time teaching them and convincing them that a passive investing strategy is the best way to do it. So that you've got a few uh a few companies like Brock, the Vanguards, and even Fidelity, you know, is a a passive investing company. They're our custodian. So for a lot of our uh assets anyway, um you know, the they're teaching people to be servants. They're not teaching them to be servants and slaves, not not freethinking individuals that can create something good of and better for our society. And the monopolies keep those ideas from coming along because if you come up with a really good idea, we've seen this time and time again. They come in and make you an offer that you can't refuse and then they shove it and they never introduce it to the public. >> Well, or they use it for themselves. >> You and I have both been waiting for this uh implosion, the the recession. I've been keeping some powder dry just in case. I have some eyes on some targets uh out there for myself that I'm pretty interested in mostly in the commodity and energy space, things like that. Um and one last piece of data to talk about that I think goes very well with what you're saying with, you know, 90 plus% of people sort of like dialing back spending. Um this is called the heavy freight heavyweight truck sales. It it's in clear recession territory at this point. It's just cratered. Um, and the reason is is that we don't need heavy trucks. Why don't we need heavy trucks? Because we're not shipping as much stuff. Why aren't we shipping as much stuff? Because people aren't buying as much stuff. That's typically how this goes. Um, and it's a volatile sector, but but it's it's clearly taken a taken a beating here. Um, and uh, so at any rate, just another confirmation that we do have if we have a if we have economic growth, boy, is it K-shaped. There's a whole bunch of it that's just not doing that well. And it's just a little tiny fragment up top that's somehow getting supported. And um I have to confess I think it's I think it's connected to this. The government's deficit spending 600 billion in the first 3 months. Uh that's astonishing. >> Incredible. >> Astonishing. That used to be an entire year's worth of deficit and it would be a bad year. Three months, Paul. >> Yeah. >> Three months. It's October, November, December. >> They're not backing off at all. And I've heard rumors that Trump just doesn't understand why his why why why so many people are so frustrated with him and he believes the economy is just great. But yet he doesn't understand because either the people in his ear aren't telling him what's really going on or they're so disconnected from the average person that they have no real clue and they just think that the average person is too stupid to really understand what's taking place. So they don't believe what they're saying. That's what it seems to be. But that is a major problem. That right there is a major problem. What's the definition of insanity? Doing more of the same and expecting different results. This is just more of the same. It's more and more of the same that's put us in the situation that we're in right now. So, it's fair to say that that you you would think that um while there is a chance of of a deflationary event coming forward that after that for sure there's another inflationary event like that this we're just going to get more deficit spending, more printing, more of that, right? Like, can you see anybody signing up for a big voluntary austerity plan and riding that out politically? >> I can't. But >> the only way we're going to get that is if this the system absolutely implodes on itself, which puts everything at risk from the great taking standpoint. So, you have to protect yourself from that, right? You got to have some system some money outside the system. Now, if I knew that we're going to have an inflationary holocaust, I'd go lever myself to the hilt and then I would let, you know, that debt be reduced t, you know, tie it up for 20 years at the same rate and then the inflation's going to just continue to reduce the the burden of that debt because theoretically your income will go higher. But that's a speculative strategy. That's a young man's game. That's not a a a an established man's game. Let's put it that way. So you got to have some assets to protect in case the system collapses upon itself which would lead to potentially the great taking whether it's actually a trigger that's pulled or just a deflationary debt collapse that that counterparty risk just all of your assets are gone at that point. But at the same time you have to be mentally prepared. Now I may be wrong on this theory but you get a deflationary impulse. I mean right now what's going to happen if they come out Chris and they just print a massive amount of money. Let's just say they decide to give everybody $10,000 checks, okay? Or 20,000 or 50,000, whatever the number is. That's going to be inflationary in that's like throwing gas on the inflationary fire. So, can they do that without the populace revoling against them? I don't see them being able to do that right now. Maybe they do. Okay, maybe they feel so protected that they can get away with it. What I'm anticipating is that we have this deflationary impulse. They let it go long enough to where there's enough pain in the system. Okay, maybe it's a 50% decline in the markets like it was in 2008, but then they turn around and they just print massive amounts of money with the argument that it worked in 2008, it worked in 2020 and then that's when it cracks across the system and investors really, you know, the big institutions move first because they really understand what's going to happen and assets flee the US and they go into these assets like emerging markets or commodities or or value stocks, energy stocks, you name it, across the board because now we're just off to the races and we're in the midst of a currency collapse or all currencies absolutely collapsing together. And and and the one thing like I've been watching the dollar and the dollar is in this in this range. Let me find it here real quick. Um, if we're in the midst of this, you know, inflationary crackup boom at this point, not a blowoff top, but a crackup boom, you know, above 115 is what we would consider a crisis dollar. That's a deflationary environment. Dollar gets stronger. Okay, milkshake theory, all that stuff. Below 95 is a debasement dollar. So, the dollar is kind of staying around this area. Well, silver's going up, gold's going up, commodities are starting to move, stocks are an all-time high, money's at an all-time high. So maybe it's possible that all of the currencies around the world or the central banks and the major currencies have linked them together and the only way that we're seeing it's in silver and gold and the relief valve. That's a possibility. Now from a longer term standpoint, if we go back and look at the dollar on a monthly basis, this is going back to 1986. You know, we we declined all the way into 2009 and the dollar has been strengthening over that period of time. Here's a trend line. I would not be surprised to see us break that trend line. But on the other hand, let's say that that's being, you know, let's say that they're linked together. Well, one thing that I'm watching really closely is the 20-year Treasury TLT. So, if we were in the midst of all of those linked together and we're we're already in the early stages of that inflationary holocaust that we're not going to have the deflation, then I would expect 20 and 30-year treasuries to be collapsing just like those Japanese longerterm treasuries are. And so far, it's been consolidating for the past couple of years. So, so the two things that I'm watching and maybe I'm watching the wrong thing uh are are are not leading me to believe right now that that's what's taking place is that we're get you know that that we're we're at that level. So that's the reason I believe that one the theory about uh people big investors concerned about counterparty risk zero tier asset that was a that should go in the dictionary is is lack of counterparty risk that um that that's what the concern and the move and those metals are about. I want to own real things because we know if the economy does recover on the other side that those real things are going to be more valuable than the than the fiat currency here in the short run because of that counterparty risk. And then I'll just share a chart of TLT real quick just to show what it's doing. So this is the 20-year Treasury and I've got all kinds of lines and everything on it here. But you know we've been cons. Right now, we've held the 200 day moving average and we're starting to break out above the 50-day again. Okay, if we go back and look at it on a weekly basis, we've been consolidating in this range here going back to 2022 and 2023 and it's slowly creeping up. Now, we may break down from here. We may consolidate. But if this breaks up, then that tells me that there are investors that are moving into 20-year because they're concerned about deflation in the short run. And other investors are moving into the metals because they're concerned about counterparty risk and and and the cross collateralization of their capital and losing it from that standpoint. So, you know, those are things that I'm watching. They may be the wrong things to watch. I'm always looking for advice with Luc and all these others that I pay for research for to look and see. But that's my concern right now is because I'm seeing a lot of investors that are near panic going in because they're so concerned about loss of purchasing power in the short run for rightful reasons. Okay. But the question is, you know, do we do we speculate now or do we wait and just continue to move in that direction as more information comes along? It's happening in Japan. Okay. Does you know if it starts happening here then okay, it's easier to go in that direction. So, I'm still trying to keep that flexibility that if if TLT going up is investors moving because they're concerned about an economic calamity later in this year. And Ed Dow does a really good job of explaining economically why he thinks we're going to be in a recession by midterms. Um, and then you've got gold and silver moving, which looks like that's based on, you know, concern about counterparty. And and here's another thing. I don't want to be on the soap box too long. I know I can I know I get running sometimes and I get frustrated about these things, but pay attention to what they do, not what they say. That's, you know, the Bible tells us to judge them by their fruits. You can't judge an individual, but you can judge them by their fruits. I'm still looking at the big firms right now. Yes, some of them came out and said you should increase your allocation to gold and metals, but their their sales force, your average advisor out there with these major Wall Street firms in modern portfolio theory are still not recommending to their clients that they have exposure to these precious metals, but yet the central banks of the world have been buying gold for quite some time. Major institutions are buying silver at this point. So, watch what they're doing. And that that leads me to believe, you know, and I I've stated this before, they're pushing cryptos a lot. My concern is, and I don't know, this is just my concern, that crypto is the relief valve for the average retail individual, which is gives enough time because if you're moving big money, it takes you time to move that big money without impacting the market dramatically. It gives them time to buy up your commodities, your natural resources, your metals, and all of those things that you can't print. Because on the other side of a deflationary downturn, I do believe that they're going to print and print a lot because they think that that's the answer. And and unfortunately, I think it's going to lead to an inflationary holocaust. So, you're going to have to make one adaptation this way to protect your capital and then you're going to have to make an adaptation in the other way to embrace that risk because there's no conservative way to protect your purchasing power against inflation. There's just not. There's no conservative way to protect your I'll say it again, protect your purchasing power against inflation if we get into an inflationary holocaust. >> It's really important to have a a general thesis, you know, um about why you're investing in any particular way. So, uh you know, as we've talked about before, I first started buying into gold and silver when gold was around 300 an ounce and silver was around 450. And I did that because I had a thesis that I was playing off of, right? And the thesis was, wow, we're just going to print money and we're just going to keep printing money and that's just that's just the nature of it. But then I had this other thesis that came along and it was this, which was, ooh, this shows that if you had held silver just during when it's traded in New York only, it's worth 11 cents uh per ounce. But if you'd held it just in the overnight, when everybody else in the world is trading it, it would be worth uh $337, I think, was the number on here. Um $331, right? Wow. That to me, Paul, this is primmaasi. I don't need any more evidence. It just says, "Wow, in they we in the US we just sold it. We just sold gold and silver. Gold is a similar thing." Well, that's what we do. We sell we sell silver. I'm actually thankful they gave me the bankers gave me subsidized silver for years and years and I'm actually Thank you. Thank you guys. That was really nice of you, right? Um it really was. But I had but I knew that this is a manipulated market and I knew and I my thesis is and continues to be that manipulated markets can't stay manipulated forever >> and then they have to recalibrate to reality at some point. And that's my thesis might be wrong but whatever your thesis is you have to you sort of have to pick that because um when you pick it right let me see if I have it in here. I I thought I put it in this last one. Um oh it's my favoriteest chart. I I think it's in it's in a different presentation. It's the one that shows that during the Weimar famous Weimar inflation from 1918 to 1923 in the Weimar Republic and their currency goes to zero or it hyperinflates against all other things. And and if you held gold during that period, we showed this chart before, there were four separate moments where gold got punished by 25%. You know, you just look at that chart, you're like, "Oh yeah, obviously just hold gold the whole time. Easy." It's not easy. So, let's put it in context. If tonight we found out gold falls back to 3,000 an ounce, 25% hit, you're going to have a lot of people saying, "Oh, I got this wrong." Panicking out, selling it, ditching it, and all this and that. But if you have the larger thesis that says, "No, we're we're in the beginning stages of a of a currency debasement routine, and I have every expectation. >> We'll get the Black Rock CIO in there, and we're just dude, we're just going to print." Like that's what's that's the plan, right? Until I see something that changes my thesis, I'm going to continue to invest as if that's my thesis. But it's going to be a bumpy ride. It just it's going to be. It really will. It will be. And that's one of the things I think we talked about it last week is, you know, look, if if you don't have any right now, look, and and I'm just talking theory. This is not recommendation. I can't do that. I have to do it individually. Don't feel like you've got to chase it here. Yes, it could go to 120 before it has a correction. Okay, so averaging in and when it starts to consolidate and gives a chance to break down, maybe you stretch out a little bit more for that opportunity, but you don't have to be in a panic to go chase this right now. Get exposure, but make sure you've got that capital to where if we have these gut-riching declines that you can take advantage of it. Maybe we don't, but you got to look at it from this standpoint. If you're major institutions and you haven't moved quick enough to get exposure to the metal that you need from an industrial standpoint, what are they always going to do? They're going to look for help. They're going to do things that they can to try to cause that the the market to drop in the interim period. And then when those weak hands get shaken loose, that's when they're going to use their capital to go in and buy as much as they can. That's a phenomenal chart because if you stand back and look at the view from 30,000 ft, you think that was easy to be an investor all the way through there. >> And that's the the negative thing about history and the negative thing I read this somewhere else. You know, one of the greatest disservices that we're doing to to young kids now is is we're not requiring them to go back and read Voltair and all of these different individuals in the past and place yourself mentally in their shoes to try to understand why they behave the way they behaved, good or bad. There's wisdom that you gain from that. So, when you look at that in history, it's like, oh, if I had just bought gold in 1914, it was an easy ride. Well, no, it wasn't. I mean, you had those 25% declines, but there were several 50% declines in there as well, if I remember correctly, Chris. You know, those are things that are going to absolutely scare the fool out of you because I would say you had the government at that point. I don't know. Um because I didn't find the government propaganda in in the Ger Wymer Republic. I just studied the individuals and what their experience was. I'm sure they were out there trying to tell you everything was going to be okay and that that gold was a ancient relic because they want you to shake loose of it so that they can acquire it because they know where you're going. And that's the reason why, you know, try to keep your emotions in check. Don't speculate. Don't pile all in when it starts moving like this because those emotions can cause you to make big mistakes. And if you, you know, if you try to pile all in right here when you've already got exposure to it, if we had a 50% decline, if we had a nasty deflationary decline and and prices drop 60 or 70%. Are you going to be tempted to sell out? And most people will be. That's that's why it's not easy to navigate these environments. And that's why in 28 years of doing this, I point out to people, work your strategy. Don't let your emotions take over because it's hard to keep them in check. It just really is. That's the hard part of the discipline. Yeah. >> Like so 1917 you you know it takes this big old dip down here. That's like about almost a 20% decline there and then it starts to lift off and maybe you're accumulating. Then you come to here. Now these each one of these ticks is a month. So if you look at this doesn't look that bad, but this is probably a 10% decline and then the next month was a 25 30% decline and then the next month was another 20% decline. That was a huge shakeout. And by the way, it didn't exceed that for another year and a half or two years in there and you're like that that's that's what you could be facing. But then it starts to move again, you know, and it has this big tick up, but then it has this giant punishing thing that this is the bucking Bronco right here from 1919 to about 1922. And if you got shook off that that horse >> Mhm. >> you lost it all. if you could manage to sort of cling on to that and you know you've set aside some hard assets. Uh maybe it's not a 100% of your wealth. It's not it's but it's just enough and you hang on. Um then you survived this next period right here which was the the final printathon, right? Um and again this just goes to show that how do how do countries go broke? Slowly then all at once. >> Then all at once correct. >> Yep. And you just have to make sure you're positioned for the all at once thing. And it's going to be really hard. It's going to be really hard. >> And I want to point out cuz gold is an easy thing to look at because that's a great chart, but and I know it's different at this point in time, but if you were a German citizen and you own some gold and you also took some of your German marks and you exchanged them for US dollars, >> the US dollars went up near as much as gold did. Now, the one thing that I want to point out is if you're a US investor and we get that type of uh inflationary holocaust, let me pull up this chart here. Um and we go back emerging markets. Most of your emerging markets are commodity producers. Okay? And that's a way to leverage those commodities in addition with with getting some diversification because they have retail there. When we look at where we are right now, you know, this is a major a major markets chart going back to January 1st of 2008. I know I've shown this a lot in the past, but I do believe that it's ridiculously relevant to where we are. So you've got the 2008 decline there. This is the S&P 500 since January 1st of 2008. We're up 370%. The Goldman Sachs commodity index is still 6.4% below what it was in 2008. Emerging markets have finally gotten to positive a positive 7.4. Okay. Now, let's go back to 200 and 2007. Now, I think I have Let me flip over here. No, let me get back to the dollar. So, uh, so yeah. Okay. So, this is chart that I wanted to look at. This right here is the year 2000. Okay. So, I'm gonna go back to the other chart. We're starting right here in the year 2000. So, if we go back to uh the dollar chart, the dollar went down a lot into 2008. So, it went from 120 all the way down to 72. Okay. What asset classes perform well? So from 2000 to 2007 commodity index was up 213% emerging markets were up 155 and I don't have the chart here but the Latin 40 was up somewhere around 230%. The Latin 40 are mostly major South American what would be considered blue chip um commodity producing stocks a lot of them. So you don't have to be all in one asset class to where you run the risk of some government intervention hits that there are diversification tools that you can utilize that modern portfolio theory on Wall Street is not going to dramatically overweight until hindsight gives them the comfort of doing that and you're simply chasing returns. That's why for us it's so important to have a strategy where we're increasing our emerging market and and commodity producing country exposure. we're we have been last year from uran uh well I don't think I can get into what we talk about so we'll save that for later but there are opportunities out there to where you can still diversify and accomplish near the same outcome as what you can in that one asset class. So that's the one thing that you know people ask me you know why don't I just put 100% of everything in in in gold and silver. Well, you can, but now you're speculating on that one asset class. And I could build the argument that if I had only one asset class that I could choose, that may be a good one. I'm not saying it is. It may be a good one. But the point is is you can be diversified into other categories that can produce some income in the short run. So, there are many tools that can be utilized for a US investor to protect yourself if that's the outcome that we we get to. And I believe that we ultimately will. We just don't know when that's going to unfold. That's that's the challenging part and that's why it's important to have an adaptive strategy and tools that can help you adapt in a repeatable fashion regardless of what the future is. >> I'm a contrarian investor. I like doing what everybody else is not doing, you know, at any any one point in time. what everybody is doing for the most part um is we're really fully invested in stocks and and we're at a period of we'll call it expensiveness which we've talked about before but this is a a big combo thing put out by Elliot Wave International and they're they're combining everything like like measuring stocks by a combination of trailing price earnings forward price earnings the cape ratio price to book uh e enterprise value over IBIDA the Q ratio market cap to GDP all that sort of combined into one because those are all sort of ways you could measure things and we had a huge peak in 29 which we all know about in ' 66 also 1999 and here we are we're higher than any of those moments in time so we're not just a little bit expensive we're a lot expensive and so that's why I'm not super excited to be on this side of the boat because I think everybody's on this side of the boat right you know in general but this that's just because as we've talked about before the markets are distorted heavily by the overconentration of just a view very very big names, right? Uh so what I was going to show was just a chart of Is that No. Yeah, I did put it in here. Um I found it. Uh so this is looking at US energy as a percent of assets under management compared to all US equity ETFs. So it's just like how much is in there? Nobody. Nobody wants to be in energy right now. Nobody. Like nobody. This is as low as it gets, right? 0.5 less than 0.5. It's like what? 4% allocation across ETFs to energy which is the thing that runs everything. You know, you would think there would be a little bit more excitement about that at some level, but no, we're not excited about that. So, from a contrarian standpoint, Paul, I actually think this is actually a really rich time because I was in gold and silver when it's very contrarian. I'll probably duck out when it becomes very very popular and so on. And it listen, it's not an easy road to ho because sometimes you have to get in early. You got to be real patient, right? because it's super impossible to figure out exactly when markets are going to bottom or turn or where the flows are going to go. But if you can find the story that's wrong, right? I was like, "Wow, we only sell silver in the US and we don't even make silver here in any appreciable quantity." Hm. I bet that breaks someday. You got to find that story and and stick to it. >> And I'm glad that you pointed out energy because it just slipped my mind to talk about that today thinking big picture. But you're right. Energy is the space right now where the fundamentals from a long-term standpoint are similar to what they were when it looks at silver and gold back when you started accumulating silver and gold. You're going to have to be patient. And that's one of the reasons why, you know, we rolled out the mining strategy about this time last year. Got really lucky on the timing as far as it comes out. And then we rolled out the energy strategy after we finished kind of our due diligence and everything. I think it was in September. And I just keep telling people, you're going to have to be patient, but we want to be exposed to that category because when you do get liftoff, it's going to happen pretty quickly. It'll be slowly and then really it's going to take off and then that kind of starts the first leg because ultimately before it's over, you're going to have retail coming in instead of technology being 38% of the S&P 500 for every dollar that goes into it approximately. I can't remember exactly what the number is. it's going to revert and then it's going to be energy is going to be garnering the largest amount of assets that are, you know, by market cap and the S&P 500 and then that's when you want to go start looking for something else. Absolutely. Absolutely. So, with those words of wisdom, if you want to talk to Paul and his amazing team, just please go to peakfinancialinvesting.com, fill out a very simple form, and somebody from Paul's team will get back to you within 48 business hours. Set up the first of three calls if you go through all three. initial get to know you call, then a planning session, and the planning session will be digested and metabolized by Paul and his team and turn into a recommendation call. And if all of that sort of fits and it feels right, um, then maybe I'll discuss how you work together and do all of that. So, if you want to get that started again, peakfinancialinvesting.com, it's been my pleasure to be here with you today. Paul, thank you for your time today. >> It's been an honor. Good to see you again, Chris. >> All right, bye everybody. Till next time, trade safe.