| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Brighton Jones maintains a moderate risk posture with diversified exposure across U.S. and international equities and a meaningful allocation to fixed income, avoiding concentrated bets on unpredictable macro variables. Over the trailing twelve months through Q2 2026, every major asset class delivered positive returns despite significant volatility, including the Liberation Day tariff selloff of April 2025 and the late-February 2026 Middle East conflict that sent oil from $61 to nearly $120 per barrel and reignited inflation to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 175 basis points from September 2024 through December 2025 but has held steady in 2026 as inflation accelerated. Markets now price at least one rate hike by fall 2026. Gold defied conventional wisdom by declining nearly 30% during the geopolitical crisis, while the dollar reclaimed strength. The manager emphasizes that inflection points are inherently unpredictable and that portfolio success depends on diversification rather than forecasting. Beneath expensive headline equity valuations driven by mega-cap growth stocks, value-oriented and smaller-capitalization companies offer more attractive return prospects.
Maintain diversified exposure across asset classes and geographies rather than positioning portfolios around unpredictable macro forecasts, recognizing that positive returns rarely come in a straight line and that the investors best served are those who do not let headlines make their decisions.
The manager expects the energy-driven inflation spike to potentially fade within a year if oil prices remain stable near current levels, though the situation in the Middle East remains fluid. The Federal Reserve is likely to implement at least one rate hike by fall 2026, with markets viewing this as a brief adjustment rather than a prolonged tightening cycle. The manager emphasizes that the rate environment remains genuinely uncertain in a way that makes forecasting difficult, and maintains that diversified exposure across asset classes remains the right posture rather than attempting to time rate moves or currency shifts.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | diversification, Dollar, Federal Reserve, gold, inflation, Middle East, oil, rates | - | Brighton Jones maintains diversified exposure across equities and fixed income, refusing to position portfolios around unpredictable macro forecasts. Despite significant volatility from tariffs and Middle East conflict that sent oil to $120 and inflation to 4.2%, all major asset classes delivered positive trailing twelve-month returns. The Fed shifted from cutting to holding, with markets pricing rate hikes ahead. Diversification across geographies, maturities, and market caps remains the core strategy. |
| Apr 10 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | diversification, Dollar, geopolitics, inflation, Middle East, oil, rates | - | Brighton Jones delivered flat Q1 2026 returns despite oil doubling to $110 amid Middle East conflict. Fed rate cuts paused due to inflation concerns while dollar strengthened as safe haven. Manager emphasizes diversification over macro forecasting, noting oil prices show no historical correlation with stock returns. Maintains moderate growth positioning with significant fixed income allocation. |
| Jan 7 2026 | 2025 Q4 | DXY | diversification, Dollar, global, inflation, rates, Resilience, Trade Policy | - | Brighton Jones emphasizes market resilience through 2025's volatility, with international equities leading returns at 34% while US markets recovered from 20% declines. Trade policy disruptions from sweeping tariffs created temporary panic before negotiation pauses. Fed rate cuts totaling 175 basis points supported fixed income returns over 7%. The firm maintains moderate conservative positioning with global diversification focus. |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Currency, diversification, fixed income, inflation, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Brighton Jones emphasizes global diversification and long-term perspective amid market volatility. International equities outperformed with 28% returns despite currency fluctuations and policy uncertainty from Trump's tariff announcements. The Fed continues rate cuts toward neutral levels while fixed income delivers strong returns. The manager maintains moderate conservative positioning, favoring fundamentally-weighted strategies over cap-weighted indexes for the next decade. |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ADDYY, AMT, AMZN, AVGO, DEO, ES, GOOGL, MA, META, MSFT, NESN.SW, NKE, NVDA, ORCL, PUMA.DE, RKT.L, SAP, TSM, UMG.AS, UNH, YUM | AI, consumer, global, large cap, Quality, semiconductors, technology | ADS.DE | Magellan Global Opportunities delivered 3.0% in Q3 2025, focusing on quality companies with sustainable competitive advantages. Key contributors included Alphabet benefiting from antitrust clarity and TSMC gaining from AI semiconductor demand. Added Adidas as compelling long-term opportunity. Maintains cautious stance given record market levels and full valuations while expecting portfolio companies to deliver strong long-term returns. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
OilOil prices surged from $61 to nearly $120 per barrel following late-February U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This spike reignited inflation to 4.2%, its highest level in three years. By early July, Brent crude had fallen back to $72 per barrel as shipping recovered and OPEC+ increased supply. |
Brent crude Strait of Hormuz Energy prices OPEC |
InflationHeadline CPI accelerated to 4.2% by May 2026, its highest level in three years, driven narrowly by energy price spikes following Middle East conflict. Unlike the broad-based inflation of 2022, the current spike is concentrated in energy. If energy prices stabilize, the spike could fade within a year, though the risk is that elevated costs seep into stickier categories like services and wages. |
CPI Energy Services Wages | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 175 basis points from September 2024 through December 2025, bringing the target to 3.50%-3.75%. However, long-term Treasury yields rose even as the Fed cut, reflecting expectations that ultra-low rates will not return. The inflation shock from the Middle East conflict shifted market expectations from further cuts toward potential rate hikes, with the Fed holding rates steady throughout 2026. |
Federal Reserve Treasury yields Rate cuts Rate hikes | |
GoldGold suffered a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 30% during the Middle East conflict, defying conventional wisdom that it serves as a safe haven during geopolitical stress. The decline was driven by the oil shock reigniting inflation and shifting Fed expectations toward rate hikes, which strengthened the dollar and undermined the appeal of an asset that pays no income. Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted oil shipments and export revenues that had funded heavy gold accumulation by Middle Eastern buyers. |
Safe haven Middle East Dollar strength Geopolitical | |
DollarThe dollar declined nearly 10% in 2025, touching a four-year low in February and falling below the psychologically important 100 level. However, the Middle East conflict reversed this trend, with the dollar index quickly reclaiming 100 as the oil shock reignited inflation and shifted Fed expectations toward rate hikes. The manager views currency inflection points as unpredictable and cautions against positioning too aggressively around a single macro view. |
DXY Currency Fed policy Geopolitical | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices doubled from $57 to over $110 per barrel following Middle East military escalation. Historical analysis shows oil price changes have little predictive value for stock market returns, with strong and weak market years occurring across various oil price environments. |
Energy Geopolitics Commodities Inflation Middle East |
DollarThe dollar index fell below 100 in 2025 to its lowest level since 2022, leading to speculation about the end of the dollar's bull cycle. However, geopolitical tensions quickly reversed this trend, with the dollar moving back above 100 while gold declined 25%. |
Currency Safe Haven Geopolitics Gold | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve has cut rates by 175 basis points since September 2024 to 3.50-3.75%. However, long-term yields have risen due to inflation concerns, and markets now price virtually no probability of further cuts through summer 2026. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Inflation Yield Curve | |
InflationInflation moderated to 2.4% in February from a 9.1% peak in June 2022. However, underlying price pressures remain stubborn with services inflation sticky and tariff pass-through beginning to appear. Surging energy prices may push inflation higher in coming months. |
CPI Energy Services Tariffs Federal Reserve | |
| 2025 Q4 |
DividendsThe fund invests approximately 50% of its assets in the 10 highest dividend-yielding Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, known as the Dogs of the Dow strategy. This systematic approach focuses on dividend yield as the primary selection criterion for equity investments. |
Dividend Yield Dogs of the Dow Income DJIA Systematic |
| 2025 Q3 |
DiversificationThe manager emphasizes global diversification as a key strategy, noting that international equities outperformed US stocks by nearly 28% year-to-date, with currency tailwinds contributing roughly a third of returns. The portfolio design aims to balance currency swings as one factor among many rather than the primary driver of outcomes. |
Global Currency International Balance Risk |
VolatilityDespite a 20% market drop earlier in the year following Trump's tariff announcement, US stocks recovered to finish 13% higher year-to-date. The manager reinforces that volatility and setbacks are normal parts of investing, emphasizing the importance of staying invested during market turbulence. |
Market Recovery Timing Patience Resilience | |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's sweeping tariff plan announced on April 2nd caused significant market disruption, with equity markets plunging before recovering after a 90-day pause was announced. The episode demonstrates how policy uncertainty can create both risks and opportunities in markets. |
Tariffs Policy Uncertainty Recovery Timing | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIRenewed enthusiasm in the AI trade has driven markets to fresh highs, with large deals announced by OpenAI with Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and AMD. However, these deals are somewhat circular in nature and heavily dependent on OpenAI growing and monetising its user base given its limited current revenue. While positive on GenAI potential over the long term, considerable uncertainty remains on the pace and degree of monetisation. |
OpenAI Nvidia Broadcom Oracle AMD |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor demand sentiment was lifted by announcements of several OpenAI partnerships with Oracle, Nvidia and Broadcom. These were positive developments in their potential to drive incremental demand for AI-related chips and manufacturing capacity. However, focus remains on end-market demand dynamics necessary to support these capacity plans, particularly given single-customer concentration. |
TSMC Nvidia Broadcom OpenAI Manufacturing | |
AthleisureAdidas represents a compelling long-term opportunity as a brand with deep heritage and durable competitive advantages. The company has demonstrated resilience through challenging periods including pandemic, geopolitical backlash in China, Russia exit and Yeezy collaboration winding down. Under new leadership, the business has regained strong momentum across key markets with structural growth tailwinds intact. |
Adidas Nike Sportswear Brand Heritage |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Brighton Jones | ADS.DE | Adidas AG | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | Bull | XETRA | athleisure, athletic apparel, Brand Equity, Consumer Discretionary, Football, Germany, Global Sports, Marketing, Sportswear, turnaround | Login |
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