| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
2025 delivered strong global equity returns with the US producing weaker performance for the first time in over a decade, as the dollar fell 10% and international markets outperformed. The AI boom has driven $30 trillion in US market cap gains since ChatGPT's release, but the Mag 7's massive capital spending on uncertain returns creates significant risk. Private equity faces a major logjam with funds unable to exit investments at elevated prices. Government fiscal profligacy continues unchecked with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100% and deficits of 5-7%, threatening bond market stability. The manager sees attractive opportunities emerging in global equities ex-US, emerging markets, commodities, energy, and biotech as investors diversify away from AI-centric positioning. Hard assets offer protection against monetary inflation while energy stocks provide geopolitical and inflation hedges at cheap valuations. The biotech sector benefits from AI-enhanced drug development. The outlook favors geographic and sector diversification as the market broadens beyond US technology dominance.
After a decade of US technology dominance, markets are broadening globally as AI investment reaches unsustainable levels and attractive opportunities emerge in overlooked regions, commodities, energy, and biotech sectors.
2026 is likely to be a year where it pays to be much more diversified by geography and sector than has been the case recently. The broadening effect away from US and AI-centric investments should continue as investors seek opportunities in global equities, emerging markets, commodities, energy, and biotech. Investors will have to go further afield and probably withstand more volatility.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8 2026 | 2025 Q4 | GOOGL, KO, NVDA, PG | AI, Biotechnology, commodities, emerging markets, energy, global, private equity, technology | - | The AI build-out is capital intensive with uncertain returns, as leading companies spend gigantic sums in an arms race. Unlike the internet boom, AI requires… |
| Oct 7 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 3 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 3 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 2 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 4 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 4 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 12 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
BiotechnologyHealthcare industry positioned for catch-up growth after several years of below-trend performance. Government spending expected to increase relative to feared cuts, with companies signaling improvement in revenue growth. Focus on 'picks & shovels' businesses serving the industry. |
Life Science Tools Pharmaceuticals CRO & CDMO Healthcare Research | |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities | |
OilOil markets disrupted by closure of Straits of Hormuz affecting 20% of global production. Prices surged from $70 to $119.50 before retreating to $90. Market may be tighter than commonly believed despite IEA projections of surplus. Oil represents cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold. |
Crude Brent WTI Hormuz Supply | |
Private CreditThe space has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into the AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Credit Lending Risk |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company represents 9.3% of company owned with cost basis of $1,299 million and market value of $27,964 million, providing $816 million in 2025 dividends. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| PG | The multiples of technology stocks should be quite a bit lower than the multiples of stocks like Coke and Gillette |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
