| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 57.49% | -15.58% | 0.45% |
LENS ETF returned -15.37% in Q2 2026 as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure triggered a commodity volatility cycle that ultimately reinforced the manager's Return to Tangibles thesis. Oil peaked in early April and returned to pre-war levels by quarter-end, while gold sold off 26.2% from its January peak as inflation concerns temporarily recoupled it to real rates. The Geopolitical & Fiscal Risks sub-theme detracted most from performance as precious metals and miners consolidated, followed by Energy is Life as oil declined in June. The manager views these pullbacks as healthy consolidations within a secular bull market, similar to historical drawdowns in the 1970s gold cycle. Structural drivers remain intact: unsustainable fiscal deficits across developed nations point to higher structural inflation, the war has permanently shifted energy security priorities driving strategic reserve refills, and central bank gold buying continues independent of Fed policy. The manager maintains high conviction that the commodity super-cycle has only just begun, with tangible assets positioned to lead as the world transitions from cooperation to competition and state-driven resource security.
The Return to Tangibles secular commodity super-cycle, which began in 2021, has kicked into high gear following the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, with the manager maintaining high conviction that this multi-year theme will continue as structural forces—higher structural inflation, elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks, and global infrastructure buildout—remain intact and energy security reasserts itself as a national priority.
The manager maintains conviction that the Return to Tangibles is a multi-year secular theme that has only just begun and kicked into high gear. The structural forces identified—higher for longer inflation, elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks, and the world continuing to build the future—are still unfolding. The manager expects to continue actively managing LENS as tangible assets, natural resources, and energy security remain central to the new era of state-driven corporate activities and national security priorities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | commodities, energy security, Geopolitical Risk, gold, inflation, oil, Tangibles | - | LENS fell 15.37% in Q2 2026 as Iran war volatility triggered commodity consolidation, but the manager sees this as a healthy reset within the Return to Tangibles secular bull market. Energy security concerns from the Strait of Hormuz closure will drive strategic oil demand, while unsustainable fiscal deficits and central bank gold buying support precious metals. The commodity super-cycle has only just begun. |
| Apr 29 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | commodities, energy, ETF, gold, inflation, oil, Tangibles, War | - | LENS delivered 18.62% as Middle East war triggered energy supply shock, validating the Return to Tangibles thesis. Energy leadership emerged while gold consolidated after historic run. Manager views crisis as catalyst for secular commodity super-cycle acceleration. Structural forces of inflation, fiscal risks, and geopolitical tensions support continued tangible asset outperformance versus traditional 60/40 portfolios. |
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | commodities, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Mining, Silver, Tangibles, Trade Policy | - | LENS ETF's +56.79% inaugural year return validated the Return to Tangibles thesis as precious metals soared amid trade wars and inflation concerns. Gold and silver hit all-time highs while the fund's thematic positioning in Geopolitical & Fiscal Risk exposures drove outperformance. The manager expects 2026 to see commodity leadership broaden beyond precious metals as the secular trend continues. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
GoldGold sold off during the quarter as inflation concerns reinforced Fed rate hike expectations, temporarily recoupling gold to real rates. The manager views this as a healthy consolidation within a longer secular bull market, similar to the 1973 oil embargo selloff. Central bank buying, particularly from China and Asian investors, continues to support the long-term thesis despite the 26.2% peak-to-trough drawdown from January to June 2026. |
Gold Central Banks Inflation Fed Policy China |
OilThe Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure exposed global dependence on oil and natural gas, shifting how countries view energy security. The manager believes this war will reignite the secular energy bull market that started in 2021. Strategic petroleum reserve refills and new reserve establishment will create steady strategic demand on top of organically increasing usage, pushing oil and gas demand higher. |
Oil Energy Security Iran Natural Gas Strategic Reserves | |
CommoditiesThe Return to Tangibles secular commodity super-cycle, which began in 2021, kicked into the next gear in the first half of 2026. Leadership within commodities has rotated from energy to metals and back to energy. The manager expects most underlying commodities to march higher once the super-cycle is in full swing, with pullbacks viewed as consolidation periods before the next leg higher. |
Commodities Super-cycle Energy Metals Tangibles | |
SilverSilver sold off during the quarter alongside gold and precious metals miners, contributing to the Geopolitical & Fiscal Risks sub-theme being the largest detractor from performance. The selloff is viewed as part of the broader precious metals consolidation following the strong run-up in 2025 and early 2026. |
Silver Precious Metals Consolidation | |
CopperCopper contributed positively to performance during the quarter within the Build the Future sub-theme, even as the overall sub-theme detracted slightly from returns. The manager maintains exposure to copper as part of the broader Return to Tangibles thesis. |
Copper Industrial Metals Build the Future | |
InflationThe manager believes all roads lead to an era of higher structural inflation due to unsustainable fiscal situations across developed nations, exacerbated by the war and rising populism pushing governments toward continued or increased spending. June's benign CPI deflated rate hike pressures as the oil spike abated, potentially marking peak hawkishness in Fed policy pricing. |
Inflation Fiscal Policy Fed Policy Structural Inflation | |
Iron OreIron ore contributed positively to performance during the quarter within the Build the Future sub-theme, alongside copper, even as the overall sub-theme detracted slightly from returns. |
Iron Ore Steel Industrial Metals | |
PlatinumPlatinum names detracted from performance during the quarter within the Build the Future sub-theme, offsetting gains from copper and iron ore positions. |
Platinum Platinum Group Metals Industrial Metals | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilEnergy took leadership from gold in March as Middle East war forced recognition of global energy dependence. The Strait of Hormuz closure exposed how dependent modern economies remain on essential energy inputs. This crisis is the catalyst for a long-term secular energy bull market, especially for Asia where nations learned it's every nation for itself in energy crises. |
Oil Energy Strait of Hormuz Energy Security Supply Shock |
Natural GasNatural gas benefited alongside oil from the energy price/supply shock in March. The war demonstrated the foundational role of natural gas in modern economies. Production cannot be turned back on with a flip of a switch after conflicts end and will likely take months to restore. |
Natural Gas Energy Supply Shock Production | |
GoldGold sold off at war outset due to markets pricing out Fed rate cuts, deleveraging among hedge funds, and central bank selling. This decline is viewed as healthy consolidation within a longer secular gold bull market. Structural fundamentals supporting gold remain intact with unsustainable fiscal situations for developed nations. |
Gold Precious Metals Fed Fiscal Bull Market | |
SilverSilver participated in the January and February rally alongside gold before selling off in March during the war. The precious metals selloff is viewed as a reset that combines with fundamentally attractive ingredients to fuel the next leg of secular bull markets. |
Silver Precious Metals Rally Consolidation | |
CopperCopper contributed to returns as part of the Build the Future sub-theme alongside industrials. Industrial metals like copper are expected to begin showing leadership as the commodity complex broadens out beyond precious metals. |
Copper Industrial Metals Build the Future | |
CommoditiesThe Return to Tangibles commodity super-cycle that began in 2021 kicked into full gear in Q1 2026. Commodities are at historical bottom relative to S&P 500, and the relative performance seen in prior cycles has not even begun. The pendulum has farther to swing as tangible assets continue to ascend. |
Commodities Super-cycle Tangibles Relative Performance | |
InflationHigher for longer inflation is identified as one of the structural forces supporting the Return to Tangibles theme. The war will exacerbate borrowing needs for developed nations, adding to inflationary pressures in an already unsustainable fiscal environment. |
Inflation Fiscal Structural Forces | |
| 2025 Q4 |
PharmaceuticalsHealth care holdings including pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies added meaningfully to returns. Holdings such as Roche, Novartis, and Ionis Pharmaceuticals benefited from new drug approvals, steady and growing earnings, and business models that continue to generate cash through a wide range of economic conditions. |
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology Healthcare Drug Approvals |
TechnologySelected technology-related companies held across several funds contributed for the quarter, particularly established franchises such as Samsung Electronics and Alphabet. While the shares of both companies soared upward in price during the year, they remain reasonably valued relative to their near-term growth prospects. |
Technology Samsung Alphabet Hardware | |
DefenseDefense-related holdings such as BAE Systems and Rheinmetall had been standout performers for much of the year but fell back in Q4. While these businesses currently benefit from secular growth in defense spending around the world, share prices have moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, and positions have been modestly trimmed. |
Defense BAE Systems Rheinmetall Defense Spending | |
IndustrialsIndustrials were mixed and faced a modest headwind. CNH Industrial detracted across the Funds, reflecting investors' continued concerns about the downturn of the Ag cycle and its impact on end-market demand. CNH remains significantly undervalued and positions are being added opportunistically. |
Industrials CNH Industrial Agriculture Machinery | |
ValuationDespite the outperformance of non-US equities this past year, the gap in valuation between US and non-US equities still remains quite significant and should serve well going forward given the non-US-centric postures of fund portfolios. High valuations across most asset categories, particularly publicly traded US equities, are noted as concerning. |
Valuation Non-US US Equities International |
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