| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
TIFF Investment Management navigates two major market forces in Q1 2026: Middle East conflict and AI disruption. The U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global oil supply and driving energy prices higher. The manager analyzes three scenarios from negotiated de-escalation to escalation spiral, with energy serving as the primary transmission channel to global growth and inflation. Separately, AI's potential job displacement creates uncertainty around SaaS companies, exemplified by SAP's 44% decline despite strong fundamentals as markets price in AI-driven business model erosion. The manager believes AI will augment rather than replace human work, with electricity generation as the key constraint. Portfolio positioning remains close to benchmarks with tactical bullish options, short duration fixed income reflecting fiscal concerns, and continued underweight to megacaps favoring smaller companies. Despite geopolitical volatility, the manager maintains cautious optimism that 2026 could be positive if energy disruptions prove temporary and earnings remain firm.
The manager maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook despite significant geopolitical uncertainty, believing that AI will drive productivity gains rather than widespread job displacement, while positioning defensively around Middle East energy risks through tactical options and duration management.
Despite a difficult start to the year, the investment backdrop could still improve as we move forward. If earnings estimates remain firm and inflation pressures from energy prove temporary, 2026 could still be a positive year for markets. While uncertainty is elevated, markets have handled it relatively well. A short conflict with no U.S. boots on the ground would likely represent the most favorable outcome for markets.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 2026 | 2026 Q1 | SAP | AI, energy, Geopolitical, Iran, Middle East, oil, SaaS, technology | SAP | TIFF navigates Middle East energy disruption and AI uncertainty in Q1 2026. Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure threatens 20% of oil supply while AI fears pressure SaaS stocks like SAP despite strong fundamentals. The manager believes AI will boost productivity rather than destroy jobs, positioning tactically with options and short duration while maintaining cautious optimism for markets if conflicts resolve quickly. |
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Endowments, Foundations, Hedge Funds, Institutional, OCIO, private equity, technology | - | TIFF delivered strong 2025 performance through diversified liquid strategies while private markets lagged but showed improvement. The firm continues expanding systematic manager allocations, event-driven exposure, and AI integration across operations. With 35 years of institutional-quality solutions for nonprofits and growing international interest, TIFF remains optimistic about 2026 despite tariff concerns and private market headwinds. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Dollar, equities, Fiscal, global, inflation, real assets | - | TIFF champions U.S. exceptionalism while acknowledging fiscal risks from $2T annual debt issuance that could pressure the dollar and bonds. Equities remain the preferred long-term store of value, supported by lessons from crisis markets like Argentina and Turkey. Portfolio maintains target equity exposure with put protection, complemented by real-asset hedges including gold and limited bitcoin allocation. |
| Jul 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Deficit, fixed income, Hedge Funds, private equity, tariffs, volatility | - | TIFF weathered extreme Q2 volatility while maintaining strategic allocations amid solid economic fundamentals including 3.4% GDP growth and easing inflation. Despite fiscal deficit concerns and tariff uncertainties, the firm sees opportunities in private equity following historically poor performance and potential endowment tax-driven dislocations. Portfolio remains balanced at target allocations with focus on manager alpha generation. |
| Jan 6 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | Deficit, Diversifying, DOGE, Fiscal, fixed income, Government | - | TIFF sees unsustainable US fiscal trajectory as major risk but views DOGE as potential solution despite significant implementation challenges. They maintain defensive positioning with underweight fixed income, preference for diversifying strategies, and small crypto/gold hedges against fiscal risks. Despite concerns, they remain optimistic on 2025 equity outlook given stable growth and potential AI benefits. |
| Sep 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Deficit, Election, Fed, fiscal policy, rates, uncertainty | - | TIFF adopts increased caution as election uncertainty peaks with markets at all-time highs. Strong fundamentals support current levels, but the firm maintains 15% cash for flexibility. Long-term fiscal concerns about unsustainable debt growth and entitlement program insolvency may favor equities over bonds for both returns and capital preservation. |
| Jul 2 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AL, AMZN, CHRD, GLW, JOBY, LNG, MSB, MU, QCOM, UNFI | AI, energy, growth, technology, value | - | ValueWorks posted strong Q3 returns while maintaining optimistic outlook on extended bull market continuation. Manager sees no unmanageable imbalances and expects aggressive economic expansion driven by AI and technological breakthroughs. Strategy focuses on undervalued securities with explosive growth potential, concentrated in technology and energy names like Micron and Chord Energy. |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AL, AMZN, CART, CHRD, JOBY, LNG, MLP, MSB, MU, QCOM, UNFI | energy, industrials, materials, technology, value, volatility | - | ValueWorks delivered 6.1% in Q2 2025 while navigating extreme market volatility expected to persist for years. The value-focused manager opportunistically added Instacart during market weakness, targeting 75-150% long-term returns. Strategy emphasizes buying quality assets at significant discounts while using volatility to make measured portfolio adjustments rather than emotional reactions. |
| Jan 4 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AL, AMZN, CHRD, LNG, MLP, MSB, MU, QCOM, UNFI | energy, portfolio, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy, uncertainty, value | - | ValueWorks navigates historic tariff policy uncertainty while maintaining value discipline of buying quality assets at significant discounts. The firm prepares for either prosperity or recession scenarios through diversified security selection rather than macro bets. With portfolio well-invested, focus shifts to upgrading opportunities during this challenging period that could set up future outperformance. |
| Oct 2 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, AL, AMZN, CHRD, LNG, MLP, MSB, MU, QCOM, UNFI | energy, growth, Speculation, technology, value | - | ValueWorks targets growth stocks at value prices, viewing 2024 as the start of a speculative market run-up. The portfolio holds over 25 mis-perceived securities across energy, technology, and other sectors. Strategy aims to participate in wealth creation while limiting downside risk when the inevitable market top arrives. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AL, AMZN, CHRD, HY, LNG, MLP, MU, QCOM, TDW | energy, Recovery, semiconductors, technology, value, volatility | AMZN | ValueWorks capitalized on Q3 volatility to add Amazon at a 25% discount, viewing it as a classic value opportunity in a quality growth company. Despite underperformance from semiconductor and energy holdings, the manager maintains conviction in the next upcycle recovery and expects current positions to regain highs within twelve months as macro conditions improve. |
| Apr 3 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AAPL, AL, CDLR, CHRD, HY, LNG, MLP, MU, QCOM, RIVN, TDW, WAL-PA | energy, growth, inflation, semiconductors, technology, value | - | ValueWorks returned 4.02% in Q2, benefiting from tech holdings like Qualcomm and Micron plus energy transition names. The manager expects multi-year expansion as inflation normalizes and tech productivity gains drive growth. Extended mega-cap valuations suggest leadership rotation ahead. The concentrated value approach targets 25-50% undervalued quality assets across diversified sectors. |
| Jan 4 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 1 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 1 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Middle EastThe conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran is creating significant market uncertainty through potential disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The manager analyzes three scenarios ranging from negotiated de-escalation to escalation spiral, with energy prices as the primary transmission channel affecting global growth and inflation. |
Iran Oil Geopolitical Energy Inflation |
AIAI's potential to disrupt jobs and the economy is creating uncertainty around SaaS companies like SAP. The manager believes AI will become a productivity accelerator rather than a job destroyer, with electricity generation as the key constraint to AI growth. |
Artificial Intelligence SaaS Productivity Automation Technology | |
OilEnergy prices are the primary channel through which Middle East conflict affects markets. Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could impact 20% of global oil supply, with forward curves already reflecting higher price expectations and various scenarios pricing different disruption durations. |
Crude Energy Supply Prices Commodities | |
SaaSSoftware as a Service companies face potential disruption from AI as companies may develop internal AI solutions to replace external SaaS services. SAP is highlighted as an example where strong fundamentals contrast with market concerns about AI-driven erosion of the business model. |
Software Enterprise Technology Disruption Valuation | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI remains transformative but markets are shifting from hype to show-me phase. The industry has spent over $400 billion on capex while producing roughly $50 billion in revenues. Physical constraints like power shortages and build delays are challenging assumptions of frictionless scaling. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Capex Infrastructure Valuations |
Private CreditPrivate markets are finally offering opportunity as supply and demand balance has shifted. Traditional institutions are over-allocated, distributions have dried up, and scarcity of capital gives patient liquidity providers leverage on price and terms. Launching a private markets fund in Q1 2026. |
Private Markets Illiquid Strategies Secondaries Credit | |
Commercial Real EstateReal estate is where price and replacement cost have meaningfully diverged. Valuations have fallen approximately 20% since 2022 while construction costs have risen 20-30%. Refinancing cliffs force motivated behavior creating opportunities to acquire assets at deep discounts. |
Real Estate Valuations Construction Costs Refinancing | |
| 2025 Q3 |
DollarThe U.S. must sell roughly $2T of new debt annually, and if foreign demand weakens, rates could rise and the dollar could weaken. The dollar sits near its long-term average value versus major peers, suggesting fair valuation, but fiscal discipline will matter for maintaining confidence. |
Currency Fiscal Debt Reserve DXY |
GoldGold has risen nearly ninefold over the past 20 years, roughly matching U.S. stock performance. It serves as a proven real-asset hedge that investors have historically turned to when currencies waver, offering protection against possible dollar depreciation. |
Real Assets Hedge Store of Value Currency Safe Haven | |
CryptoBitcoin, though newer and more volatile than gold, has gained some acceptance as a store of value outside government control. It may play a limited role for some investors as a hedge against possible dollar depreciation. |
Bitcoin Store of Value Volatility Government Hedge | |
| 2025 Q2 |
DeficitThe US fiscal outlook is deteriorating with the One Big Beautiful Bill projected to add $2.7 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. The US is spending roughly 40% more per year than it receives in receipts, representing an unsustainable path that requires multi-pronged, gradual deficit reduction over many years. |
Budget Debt Fiscal Government Spending |
Private EquityPrivate equity has shown the worst back-to-back returns in 22 years, but this creates an opportunity as previous poor performance episodes were followed by recovery years. The proposed endowment tax changes could create access to previously closed PE managers and buying opportunities in secondary markets. |
Illiquid Alternative Endowment Secondary Returns | |
TariffsTrump plans to enact specific new tariffs on 57 countries starting July 9, though TIFF expects these will be diluted and resolved by year-end. Tariffs are viewed as taxes that slow the economy, but negotiations should conclude favorably. |
Trade Negotiations Policy International Tax | |
AIAI will accelerate growth and improve efficiency of almost everything. Self-driving cars could become common this year, and humanoid robots will break onto the scene in a few years, making businesses that embrace these advancements more productive and profitable. |
Technology Automation Productivity Innovation Growth | |
| 2024 Q4 |
CryptoTIFF maintains small positions in cryptocurrency as modest hedges against fiscal imprudence and potential fiscal missteps. This positioning reflects their concern about the US fiscal situation and serves as protection against moderate turmoil. |
Crypto Hedge Fiscal |
GoldSmall positions in gold are maintained as hedges against fiscal imprudence, similar to their crypto positioning. Gold serves as protection against potential fiscal missteps and moderate market turmoil given concerns about US fiscal trajectory. |
Gold Hedge Fiscal | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesThe Fed's preferred inflation gauge is down to 2.5%, its lowest level since February 2021. Fed Chair Powell indicated that the rate easing cycle will begin in September. Most expect rates to be as much as 2% lower over the next couple of years, which would be supportive of economic growth and help maintain higher-level P/E ratios. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Inflation Monetary Policy P/E Ratios |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIManager views AI as driving massive economic opportunities and transforming the world. AI breakthroughs are creating the foundation for aggressive economic expansion ahead, similar to how technological advances have driven economic cycles over the past two hundred years. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Innovation Growth |
SemiconductorsMicron Technology is the fund's largest holding, representing significant exposure to the semiconductor sector. The manager sees semiconductor companies as beneficiaries of the technological revolution driving current market advances. |
Memory Technology Chips | |
EnergyPortfolio includes energy exposure through Chord Energy Corp and Cheniere Energy Inc, representing both traditional oil & gas production and LNG infrastructure. These positions align with the manager's view of cyclical opportunities in energy markets. |
Oil LNG Energy Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q1 |
VolatilityManager describes extreme market volatility with multiple 15-20% moves in both directions over weeks, driven by sentiment swings from fear to exuberance to doom and back to confidence. This volatility is expected to be the new normal for several years as markets advance toward a 25-year high. |
Market Volatility Sentiment Uncertainty Risk Management |
ValueValueWorks defines their approach as buying best-quality assets at best possible prices, targeting $0.50-$0.75 for $1.00 worth of assets. They evaluate component parts of companies and assign dollar values to determine if stock price represents an investment opportunity. |
Value Investing Asset Valuation Undervalued Quality Assets | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Trade PolicyThe manager discusses the dramatic tariff policies announced by the administration, noting they are of historic magnitude and could lead to either positive trade relationships or harsh economic outcomes. The uncertainty around policy execution creates both upside and downside scenarios for markets. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Uncertainty Inflation |
ValueValueWorks defines their approach as buying best-quality assets at best possible prices, targeting $0.50-$0.75 for $1.00 worth of assets. They focus on component parts valuation and seek 25-50% undervalued investments with 1-2 year holding periods. |
Undervalued Assets Fundamentals Research Selection | |
| 2023 Q3 |
ValueManager describes their strategy as buying growth stocks at value prices, seeking securities that are mis-perceived and priced at value multiples. The portfolio is positioned with over 25 securities that represent potential growth investments trading at discounted valuations. |
Value Growth Multiples Undervalued Mispriced |
| 2023 Q2 |
Semiconductor CycleThe manager is positioned for the next semiconductor upcycle through holdings like Micron Technology, which corrected significantly during the quarter but is expected to benefit from the next cycle. Qualcomm also experienced similar price volatility but remains a core holding for the semiconductor recovery. |
Memory Semiconductors Upcycle Volatility Recovery |
EnergyThe energy sector gave back a portion of its multi-year advance during the quarter, with holdings like Tidewater retreating from highs. However, the manager expects these reversals to be temporary blips in the context of long-term advances and anticipates recovery within twelve months. |
Oil Services Energy Trading Offshore Drilling Cyclical Recovery | |
ValueThe fund's core philosophy centers on buying quality assets at discounted prices, targeting companies trading at 50-75 cents on the dollar. Amazon represents a classic opportunity to buy a true growth stock at a value price after its 25% retreat during market volatility. |
Discount Quality Undervalued Bargain Mispriced | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIThe gold-rush mindset in the tech space goes well beyond AI and is fueling economic growth across the board. This provides demand for everything from data centers to electricity and is productivity-enhancing for much of the economy. |
Technology Data Centers Productivity Growth Infrastructure |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio has benefited from holding Cadeler, which supports the offshore wind industry, and Rivian in the EV space, demonstrating exposure to the energy transition theme. |
Offshore Wind Electric Vehicles Clean Energy Renewable Energy |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Fund Letters | TIFF | SAP | SAP SE | Software - Application | Systems Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI integration, contrarian, Enterprise software, ERP software, SaaS, Software, technology, Value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | TIFF | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Cloud computing, Competitive Moats, e-commerce, growth, retail, technology, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| SAP | SAP is one of the leading global providers of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software and is also working to incorporate AI into its own offerings. The company's fundamentals remain strong. Revenues and earnings are expected to grow at an accelerating pace over the next several years, with consensus estimates pointing to continued double-digit earnings growth. With the stock today at $176, that is a PE of 21x 2026 and only 11.3x 2030 earnings estimates. The average PE over the last 10 years is 31x. Nevertheless, the stock price has declined by 28% YTD and is down 44% from its July 2025 high. This is not due to weakening near-term earnings, but rather a reassessment of the durability of the business. The market is increasingly pricing in potential AI-driven erosion of SAP's franchise and terminal value. |
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