Peak Silver Until 2030: Why Mine Supply Won't Top 2016 Levels for 5 Years | Phil Baker
Summary
Physical Silver: A global shift toward higher inventories and a "physical is king" mindset is driving a squeeze, with tightness tied to getting the right form of silver in the right location.
Demand Dynamics: Industrial and investment demand underpin silver, with AI/data center buildouts supportive; solar makers may thrift toward copper, but overall long-term demand remains resilient.
India: Persistent Indian buying continues despite a sharp rise in rupee prices, with cultural and demographic drivers likely to sustain demand after any short-term reset.
Silver Miners: Producers and developers are set to benefit from extraordinary margins, limited new supply (post-2016 peak), and recycling constraints amid a small global market.
Jurisdictional Shifts: Bolivia is moving from uninvestable to investable with meaningful growth potential in about five years, while U.S. strategic considerations and stockpiling discussions are supportive.
Market Outlook: Corrections are possible, but the longer-term trend is constructive as strong gold prices and currency debasement support silver’s trajectory.
Equity Implications: Silver producers may grow reserves and dividends; recent stock moves (e.g., a notable U.S. silver producer) highlight leverage to high silver prices.
Transcript
[music] Kitco News on-site coverage of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference is presented by Discovery Silver. All right, welcome back to Kiko News, everyone. I'm Jeremy Saffron. We're live on location here in Vancouver. And while thousands of investors have gathered here to position themselves for the year ahead, the market itself has altered the landscape. Now, I'm sure you've heard, but we witnessed a historic decoupling in the precious metals complex. Silver, in fact, just as we went to market on Friday as the markets close, trading above $13, a 7% intraday move last Friday. That gold holding firm just at the doorstep of $5,000 and platinum we should talk about because most aren't. That's rallied more than 5% confirming that this is a broad-based industrial panic is taking place. Now, the economics in mining, manufacturing, and energy have fundamentally changed. To break this down, of course, uh this new paradigm, what it looks like, I'm joined by Phil Baker. He ran the largest US silver producer for two decades and also served as a chairman of the silver institute. Still, uh an executive member of that institute as well as San Crystal Mining. Phil, welcome back to Kiko. >> Okay, thanks Jeremy. Good to be here. >> Just a few things to get into since we last chatted. Um you know, let's start with this. Let's give a little bit of context to the audience cuz you and I were chatting before we came on to the air here and a lot has changed in the 24 years you've been in the business. Uh 24 years ago when you were in the business the price 25 the 25th year. >> 254 $410. >> Yep. That was the price when I became president of Heckla Mining was $410. So $99 less than where it is today. Did you ever imagine and and you know and I should point out to the audience even at 410 the economics obviously made sense to go into the ground >> tough it was super tough to uh to operate a silver mine then and it's still tough to operate it but uh no it's a it's a different world and it's a different world because the demand for silver has changed fundamentally to you know two things one is industrial demand and the second thing is investment demand that you just didn't have back in those days >> you know and it starts to look as though, you know, we're in this room. We've been talking to a lot of people. It almost feels as though the retail audience is starting to pay attention. I mean, you can turn on MSNBC and it seemed like after $100 that the mainstream media started talking a little bit about silver. We had you on the show back in December. I called you up kind of panicked because we needed some truth into the system. There's a lot of fear out there, a lot of what's what the heck is happening. Uh let's go back to that because on that structure I mean we're now operating obviously in a tripledigit environment and you know back in December you were talking about that inventory step function where buyers would be forced to come into the market and buy that physical. I mean is that what's taking place now? >> Well not only is that taking place but people are making sure they have inventory. So, so one of the things I probably said back then was the London Bullion Market Association members, they have a a conference every year and I went to that conference and what I was struck by was the comment and it was the it was the comment of the conference physical is king >> and so what that means is whether it's it's the uh the London bullion market or the comx or Mumbai or or China everybody's He says we got to have higher inventories and it's it's true around the world and as a result you can see what's happened to the silver. >> Yeah. I mean the squeeze has been remarkable. There's been a lot of talk about whether this is a true squeeze. I mean you can tell by the price action something is going on. I mean is this move past $100 kind of confirmation that that physical disconnect has occurred? >> Yeah, I think it is. And it's and and and and what's clear is there's while there's a squeeze, it's a squeeze that relates to having the right silver in the right place in the right form. And and so there's plenty of silver to go around, but people have to be willing to give it up for it to go into the right that right form. And they've been reluctant to do that. And in fact, people have been buying more silver to to hoard it, which is no surprise. When the silver price has gone up, people tend to buy more than they do sell. >> Yeah. Now, that's an interesting point. I mean, last time we had you on the show, you brought in the India discussion about that supply and demand. I mean, people have been stepping in and buying it just on the retail side, let alone some of the institutions. Talk to me a little bit about that that metal, you know, that's actually left London and New York. Now, are you seeing any evidence in this? I mean, is there where's it going? >> It's still going to India. >> Still going. >> Yeah. So, so if you look at the rupee price of of silver, it's now over 300,000 rupees per kilogram. At the middle of the year, it was a 100,000 kg. Yeah. It's just been amazing how consistent they've been buying throughout this whole piece. You do get to some point where there's probably a pullback. You know, there's got to be a reset in in the minds of people. You know, do I continue to buy at these levels? Will it come? and it and and once it sort of settles out for a period of time at these levels, they'll be more buying because culturally they're they're going to buy silver and demographically they're going to buy silver. >> It's interesting. I mean, when you think about it, I mean, I brought up in the intro that 7% change in price on one day. That's unusual price action in the silver market to say the least. At these prices are recycles, I mean, we got people coming to the market, they're giving up their silver as well. Yeah, there they certainly are, but there's only so much refining capacity. So, it's a slow process for that silver to get converted into the form that it needs to needs to be in. And it's it's going to take a while for the silver to go through the system. And during that period of time, >> you'll have I think continued strength in the silver risk. Could you have a pullback? Sure. But generally speaking, silver's not going to go anywhere south of where it is in a in a major way for for some time to come so long as the gold price Yeah. continues to to be strong. >> So the macro thesis is there and I mean I have to ask you because at $103 silver I mean it becomes obviously a massive lighting item uh for manufacturers in terms of cost uh in your view I mean how elastic is that industrial demand right now? Um look they are very rapidly I would it's been estimated about 23% of the u manufacturers that um make the solar panels um are rapidly changing to copper from silver. So I think you'll see that before the end of the year or or early next year. It's either that or they're telling the market they're going to do that in hopes of of seeing the silver price go down. I don't know which is true. Yeah, >> but but over time there's no doubt that they will reduce the amount of silver that they that they're using in all the applications. But having said that, you you have the economic growth that's occurring around the world and you have the AI boom and the need for the data centers. You know, the the demand for silver while it industrially it might fall slightly, it's not going to fall dramatically. And over the long term, it's going to continue to increase. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, you know, looking at the backwardation too in the markets, you start looking at Shanghai premiums compared to the comx. I mean, you're seeing a big uh big disconnect there. I mean, this is kind of the first time. Talk to me a little bit about that. >> Well, realize that that there is the VAT differential between the two and that explains most of that difference. So, so I I I don't think that's such a big big deal. Well, I mean, do you see the stock piles on the geopolitical side? I mean, obviously silver now as a strategic mineral in the United States. I mean, China is stepping in to buy more physical. Is it just a massive race to holding as much as you can? >> Well, I think I think so. Um, I I I was speaking to someone and I can't confirm this, but they were saying that they were speaking to people in the administration that are looking at increasing their critical stockpile of silver, which, you know, you haven't seen seen that for decades. So yes, the demand for silver, you know, putting it in inventory somewhere where you know you have access to it, whether it's whether it's the exchanges, whether it's manufacturers, whether it's governments or just individuals is on the rise. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's been interesting. I mean, we had a conversation with uh well, I think he was with the the Scottsdale Mint, Josh Farah, and he was talking about the hidden hand being that the governments or those sovereigns are buying through the banks. So I mean a lot of the JP Morgan, all these banks are looking at that price. They're actually picking up the metal. Do you think that sovereigns are picking up physical metal? >> I don't know. I I would not be surprised just given that that it's characterization characterization as strategic and particularly by the US. >> Yeah. Okay. Let's talk a little bit about mining. That is why we're here. You know, we've seen some of the juniors have some great upside. A lot of the majors seeing that upside. Obviously margins have increased here, but there's still costs involved. Uh year olds in player, I mean a heckla 26% last week. I mean, are stocks starting to see this? And and is this just the beginning of the ripple? A lot of people here worried or at least wanting to take profits in this market worried about that bubble talk? >> Look, it's certainly possible that you'll have that, but if even if you have a correction can only go so far far down. And I I I look at these silver producers and what I recognize is there is a there there is a limit as to the growth that you can have in production. >> Um remember peak silver was in 2016. So a decade ago we produce more silver than we have in any year since. And we will continue to see 2016 as the peak until at least 2030. There is not enough projects that can go into production in the next, you know, four or five years. It it's just not going to happen. >> So, is there quality? Again, I I asked this because I know you're in the market. I mean, actively looking at these as investments. I mean, you know the market well. You've been in it over 25 years, Phil. I mean, tell me about the ideal investment in the silver mining sector right now. >> Look, I think I think it's a it's a mixture of things. the producers. Um, those guys have the ability to continue to grow their reserve base and do incremental increases in production. Step function increases really hard for anyone to do. And then you've got some some very specific uh produce there development companies, but they're still two or three years away. And in terms of the total market, remember the miners produce about 900 million ounces of silver. Nobody's going to be a a 9 million ounce at 10% of that market in the course of the next five years. So the I think that's the place to be is to be with those producers and to be with those development companies. And now you're finally starting to have exploration that's occurring and so there's an opportunity there as well. >> I mean even if the new capital floods in like it has been how long for new ounces? I mean it's not tomorrow. No, no, it's at least five years and that's with projects that are already in the pipeline. So, so you know, just rest assured that you're not going to see very much from producers and you're not going to see a lot from recycling because there's just not a lot of capacity and that again will take two or three years and that's that's only 150 to 200 million ounces of silver coming from those sources. So nothing, you know, it's a 1.2 two billion ounce market and and and and if you think about it at $100 it's that's you know a hundred billion dollar market that's still tiny tiny tiny market and so you're also going to have a lot of speculative interest in being in >> yeah well I mean I'm not sure if we talked about it before but just talking about that geo uh not not I guess it wouldn't be geopolitical risk we're in that market already but the jurisdictional risk I mean is there now a premium going to US producers Um I there is uh but I do think that the world is changing pretty rapidly. So the activities of the US and Venezuela makes a big difference. What's happened in Argentina makes a big difference. And I think what you'll see is um those places Bolivia for example. So the company that I represent on this silver institute >> Bolivia has gone from being uninvestable to being very investable. And Bolivia is is the fourth largest silver producer in in the world. That's a place where I think you could see significant growth, but it's again it's not going to be for about another 5 years. Yeah. It's not tomorrow. Uh okay. Well, let's talk a little bit about you know uh those risks. I mean margins explode a little bit. You're obviously looking at different projects. What are you working on now? >> Well, I'm I've gone on the board of a company called Dine, which is actually a gold rare earth property. Um it's south of Las Vegas. It's an old lack minerals property called Coliseum. Uh they're in feasibility right now and the in it's likely that they'll go into production go into development construction you know in matter of months not years. >> Wow. >> And this is because of the headwinds from the United States. If I'm not mistaken I mean Trump has even called out that couple. They have he has so and and the reason he's called it out is it's 6 milesi from mountain pass and you have the rare earth in addition to the uh to the to the gold deposit. >> It's interesting watching some of these you know some of these mines that obviously at 410 on the spot side of silver didn't make a lot of money being brought back to market here at $100 silver. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think uh there's a lot of projects that you know people would poo poo, but they're not going to do that at $50 plus, let alone $100 silver. >> Yeah. You know, you you turn on the news just like me, I'm sure. I mean, I haven't seen your algorithm on YouTube, but if you come on and you're looking at Kiko News, there's a lot of others talking about the silver market at this point. And we were talking about before how at a show like this, there's a lot of new, younger generation coming into the market. What do you think is the most misunderstood thing looking at 2026? >> Um I I think there's too much worry about where the silver price is going to going to go, right? Look, at $100, um the silver price is uh at a at a level where these companies are going to do quite well. They're going to generate revenue that allow them to pay dividends. and and so the the investment thesis for these companies is going to is going to change in a way that you haven't haven't seen before and I think uh there's there's too much chasing you know the new thing it's it's you know to a certain extent seeing these assets operate and and produce and then look for things that um that that have are that the risk profile of putting things into production is can be managed Yeah, >> as a producer, I mean, you run numbers at $100 silver. Are you looking at what what what is our new base on the all in sustaining costs? I mean, are you I mean, these haven't even hit the revenue numbers yet on a lot of these companies. >> Yeah. So, it's it certainly costs will go up. Um, no doubt about that. But if you look at the average cost of the primary silver producers, somewhere below $20 is where it has has been. You know, I think you'll see it increase. But you think about those margins whether the price of silver is 100 or or plus or minus that those margins are going to be extraordinary. Are you you know we we got to address the risks that come with success obviously when we look at some of these things. I mean the commodity margins have exploded a little bit but obviously government scrutiny usually follows. So I'm just wondering you know if you were a CEO today are you are you preparing for windfall taxes or is it more royalty hikes? >> Um I I'm I I would suggest to you in this market given the recognition of the importance of the minerals being produced. That's not that's not the thing I would be concerned with now. >> You know, years into the future, yeah, that's probably something to have some concern over, but not at the moment. >> Okay. I like this because, you know, I was talking to a couple of contrarians just before and they said, "Okay, I don't know how long this bubble has to run. I mean, is the base now I mean, we don't need to. It's 103 and the spot market closes in, you know, 7 hours. So, who knows what it's going to be pushed back to or where it'll settle. But is $80 kind of the new base? >> Yeah, it's hard to say where the where the base is, but it's certainly at a level that the companies will generate significant free cash flow for development, for paying dividends, uh, you know, for growth. Um, so I that's not something I would be too terribly concerned with. >> We talked a little bit about that decoupling of silver. You know, we always talk silver gold ratio, what have you. I mean, the fact that these two metals have been going together and every dip in gold comes with a dip in silver. We know how it works, but you know, >> silver's been catching up. >> It's been catching up. I mean, it almost feels like this year it's just getting started. The bubble narrative might be a little bit too quick. >> Yeah, I it's I think it's absolutely corrections are likely to happen. there's it never goes straight up and it'll be interesting to see um how big of a correction you have and and get rid of really weak hands, people that are just simply momentum traders, but in you know over the long term it's going to continue to to increase over over time. >> Yeah. I got to ask you just uh and I I know you can't obviously offer any investment advice, but I mean you've been an investor in this space and talking to investors here on the ground. You know, they've been holding on to these positions for 5 10 years waiting for this market. Finally, it's coming alive. Are people selling too early? I mean, would you recommend taking a bit of profit and just keeping in your, you know, your cost or something? >> Yeah, certainly that's what I've done. But, but um yeah, there's there's nothing wrong with taking some profits. Um but the fundamental basis the rationale for why gold is has increased this whole debasement all of the uncertainty that's happened none of that is going away any anytime soon and as a result of that gold silver uh you know all the things that are happening to grow the economy makes copper look very attractive so none of that is changing and you know I it's not something where you I think you need to sort of run from this this uh sector. >> Good advice. Okay, I'll leave you with this cuz every time we have you on the program, I always get written by viewers and they say, "What the hell is Phil working on these days?" I know you just brought up a couple of the projects, but in 2026, I mean, you're pretty behind the scenes. Where can people follow you? I mean, what are the big things you can look for? I know there's announcements in the pipeline. >> Yeah. Yeah. Look, I will be going on another board and it's unfortunately I can't mention it yet. >> The timing just isn't right. >> Right. Can't mention it yet, but but I'll be going on another board. And look, I I'm interested in working on things that are in particular jurisdictions. I'm interested in working with friends and I'm interested in working in silver sort of anywhere in the world. So things that fit into those three categories are stuff that I'm I'm working. >> So we'll continue to see you all throughout the year. All right, Phil joining us. Thanks. I appreciate it. Phil Baker, of course, joining us. And you can check out more about what he's working on, including that Nevada property. We'll put a link into the description. Uh again, we just got here. V-Rick is underway here in Vancouver, BC. It's a beautiful day outside. Not that you would notice it inside of here, but a lot of momentum, a lot of investors talking about $100 silver and $5,000 gold. We're going to have some great uh great guests all week long. Be sure to hit subscribe. We'll see you next time. Kitco News on-site coverage of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference is presented by Discovery Silver.
Peak Silver Until 2030: Why Mine Supply Won't Top 2016 Levels for 5 Years | Phil Baker
Summary
Transcript
[music] Kitco News on-site coverage of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference is presented by Discovery Silver. All right, welcome back to Kiko News, everyone. I'm Jeremy Saffron. We're live on location here in Vancouver. And while thousands of investors have gathered here to position themselves for the year ahead, the market itself has altered the landscape. Now, I'm sure you've heard, but we witnessed a historic decoupling in the precious metals complex. Silver, in fact, just as we went to market on Friday as the markets close, trading above $13, a 7% intraday move last Friday. That gold holding firm just at the doorstep of $5,000 and platinum we should talk about because most aren't. That's rallied more than 5% confirming that this is a broad-based industrial panic is taking place. Now, the economics in mining, manufacturing, and energy have fundamentally changed. To break this down, of course, uh this new paradigm, what it looks like, I'm joined by Phil Baker. He ran the largest US silver producer for two decades and also served as a chairman of the silver institute. Still, uh an executive member of that institute as well as San Crystal Mining. Phil, welcome back to Kiko. >> Okay, thanks Jeremy. Good to be here. >> Just a few things to get into since we last chatted. Um you know, let's start with this. Let's give a little bit of context to the audience cuz you and I were chatting before we came on to the air here and a lot has changed in the 24 years you've been in the business. Uh 24 years ago when you were in the business the price 25 the 25th year. >> 254 $410. >> Yep. That was the price when I became president of Heckla Mining was $410. So $99 less than where it is today. Did you ever imagine and and you know and I should point out to the audience even at 410 the economics obviously made sense to go into the ground >> tough it was super tough to uh to operate a silver mine then and it's still tough to operate it but uh no it's a it's a different world and it's a different world because the demand for silver has changed fundamentally to you know two things one is industrial demand and the second thing is investment demand that you just didn't have back in those days >> you know and it starts to look as though, you know, we're in this room. We've been talking to a lot of people. It almost feels as though the retail audience is starting to pay attention. I mean, you can turn on MSNBC and it seemed like after $100 that the mainstream media started talking a little bit about silver. We had you on the show back in December. I called you up kind of panicked because we needed some truth into the system. There's a lot of fear out there, a lot of what's what the heck is happening. Uh let's go back to that because on that structure I mean we're now operating obviously in a tripledigit environment and you know back in December you were talking about that inventory step function where buyers would be forced to come into the market and buy that physical. I mean is that what's taking place now? >> Well not only is that taking place but people are making sure they have inventory. So, so one of the things I probably said back then was the London Bullion Market Association members, they have a a conference every year and I went to that conference and what I was struck by was the comment and it was the it was the comment of the conference physical is king >> and so what that means is whether it's it's the uh the London bullion market or the comx or Mumbai or or China everybody's He says we got to have higher inventories and it's it's true around the world and as a result you can see what's happened to the silver. >> Yeah. I mean the squeeze has been remarkable. There's been a lot of talk about whether this is a true squeeze. I mean you can tell by the price action something is going on. I mean is this move past $100 kind of confirmation that that physical disconnect has occurred? >> Yeah, I think it is. And it's and and and and what's clear is there's while there's a squeeze, it's a squeeze that relates to having the right silver in the right place in the right form. And and so there's plenty of silver to go around, but people have to be willing to give it up for it to go into the right that right form. And they've been reluctant to do that. And in fact, people have been buying more silver to to hoard it, which is no surprise. When the silver price has gone up, people tend to buy more than they do sell. >> Yeah. Now, that's an interesting point. I mean, last time we had you on the show, you brought in the India discussion about that supply and demand. I mean, people have been stepping in and buying it just on the retail side, let alone some of the institutions. Talk to me a little bit about that that metal, you know, that's actually left London and New York. Now, are you seeing any evidence in this? I mean, is there where's it going? >> It's still going to India. >> Still going. >> Yeah. So, so if you look at the rupee price of of silver, it's now over 300,000 rupees per kilogram. At the middle of the year, it was a 100,000 kg. Yeah. It's just been amazing how consistent they've been buying throughout this whole piece. You do get to some point where there's probably a pullback. You know, there's got to be a reset in in the minds of people. You know, do I continue to buy at these levels? Will it come? and it and and once it sort of settles out for a period of time at these levels, they'll be more buying because culturally they're they're going to buy silver and demographically they're going to buy silver. >> It's interesting. I mean, when you think about it, I mean, I brought up in the intro that 7% change in price on one day. That's unusual price action in the silver market to say the least. At these prices are recycles, I mean, we got people coming to the market, they're giving up their silver as well. Yeah, there they certainly are, but there's only so much refining capacity. So, it's a slow process for that silver to get converted into the form that it needs to needs to be in. And it's it's going to take a while for the silver to go through the system. And during that period of time, >> you'll have I think continued strength in the silver risk. Could you have a pullback? Sure. But generally speaking, silver's not going to go anywhere south of where it is in a in a major way for for some time to come so long as the gold price Yeah. continues to to be strong. >> So the macro thesis is there and I mean I have to ask you because at $103 silver I mean it becomes obviously a massive lighting item uh for manufacturers in terms of cost uh in your view I mean how elastic is that industrial demand right now? Um look they are very rapidly I would it's been estimated about 23% of the u manufacturers that um make the solar panels um are rapidly changing to copper from silver. So I think you'll see that before the end of the year or or early next year. It's either that or they're telling the market they're going to do that in hopes of of seeing the silver price go down. I don't know which is true. Yeah, >> but but over time there's no doubt that they will reduce the amount of silver that they that they're using in all the applications. But having said that, you you have the economic growth that's occurring around the world and you have the AI boom and the need for the data centers. You know, the the demand for silver while it industrially it might fall slightly, it's not going to fall dramatically. And over the long term, it's going to continue to increase. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, you know, looking at the backwardation too in the markets, you start looking at Shanghai premiums compared to the comx. I mean, you're seeing a big uh big disconnect there. I mean, this is kind of the first time. Talk to me a little bit about that. >> Well, realize that that there is the VAT differential between the two and that explains most of that difference. So, so I I I don't think that's such a big big deal. Well, I mean, do you see the stock piles on the geopolitical side? I mean, obviously silver now as a strategic mineral in the United States. I mean, China is stepping in to buy more physical. Is it just a massive race to holding as much as you can? >> Well, I think I think so. Um, I I I was speaking to someone and I can't confirm this, but they were saying that they were speaking to people in the administration that are looking at increasing their critical stockpile of silver, which, you know, you haven't seen seen that for decades. So yes, the demand for silver, you know, putting it in inventory somewhere where you know you have access to it, whether it's whether it's the exchanges, whether it's manufacturers, whether it's governments or just individuals is on the rise. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's been interesting. I mean, we had a conversation with uh well, I think he was with the the Scottsdale Mint, Josh Farah, and he was talking about the hidden hand being that the governments or those sovereigns are buying through the banks. So I mean a lot of the JP Morgan, all these banks are looking at that price. They're actually picking up the metal. Do you think that sovereigns are picking up physical metal? >> I don't know. I I would not be surprised just given that that it's characterization characterization as strategic and particularly by the US. >> Yeah. Okay. Let's talk a little bit about mining. That is why we're here. You know, we've seen some of the juniors have some great upside. A lot of the majors seeing that upside. Obviously margins have increased here, but there's still costs involved. Uh year olds in player, I mean a heckla 26% last week. I mean, are stocks starting to see this? And and is this just the beginning of the ripple? A lot of people here worried or at least wanting to take profits in this market worried about that bubble talk? >> Look, it's certainly possible that you'll have that, but if even if you have a correction can only go so far far down. And I I I look at these silver producers and what I recognize is there is a there there is a limit as to the growth that you can have in production. >> Um remember peak silver was in 2016. So a decade ago we produce more silver than we have in any year since. And we will continue to see 2016 as the peak until at least 2030. There is not enough projects that can go into production in the next, you know, four or five years. It it's just not going to happen. >> So, is there quality? Again, I I asked this because I know you're in the market. I mean, actively looking at these as investments. I mean, you know the market well. You've been in it over 25 years, Phil. I mean, tell me about the ideal investment in the silver mining sector right now. >> Look, I think I think it's a it's a mixture of things. the producers. Um, those guys have the ability to continue to grow their reserve base and do incremental increases in production. Step function increases really hard for anyone to do. And then you've got some some very specific uh produce there development companies, but they're still two or three years away. And in terms of the total market, remember the miners produce about 900 million ounces of silver. Nobody's going to be a a 9 million ounce at 10% of that market in the course of the next five years. So the I think that's the place to be is to be with those producers and to be with those development companies. And now you're finally starting to have exploration that's occurring and so there's an opportunity there as well. >> I mean even if the new capital floods in like it has been how long for new ounces? I mean it's not tomorrow. No, no, it's at least five years and that's with projects that are already in the pipeline. So, so you know, just rest assured that you're not going to see very much from producers and you're not going to see a lot from recycling because there's just not a lot of capacity and that again will take two or three years and that's that's only 150 to 200 million ounces of silver coming from those sources. So nothing, you know, it's a 1.2 two billion ounce market and and and and if you think about it at $100 it's that's you know a hundred billion dollar market that's still tiny tiny tiny market and so you're also going to have a lot of speculative interest in being in >> yeah well I mean I'm not sure if we talked about it before but just talking about that geo uh not not I guess it wouldn't be geopolitical risk we're in that market already but the jurisdictional risk I mean is there now a premium going to US producers Um I there is uh but I do think that the world is changing pretty rapidly. So the activities of the US and Venezuela makes a big difference. What's happened in Argentina makes a big difference. And I think what you'll see is um those places Bolivia for example. So the company that I represent on this silver institute >> Bolivia has gone from being uninvestable to being very investable. And Bolivia is is the fourth largest silver producer in in the world. That's a place where I think you could see significant growth, but it's again it's not going to be for about another 5 years. Yeah. It's not tomorrow. Uh okay. Well, let's talk a little bit about you know uh those risks. I mean margins explode a little bit. You're obviously looking at different projects. What are you working on now? >> Well, I'm I've gone on the board of a company called Dine, which is actually a gold rare earth property. Um it's south of Las Vegas. It's an old lack minerals property called Coliseum. Uh they're in feasibility right now and the in it's likely that they'll go into production go into development construction you know in matter of months not years. >> Wow. >> And this is because of the headwinds from the United States. If I'm not mistaken I mean Trump has even called out that couple. They have he has so and and the reason he's called it out is it's 6 milesi from mountain pass and you have the rare earth in addition to the uh to the to the gold deposit. >> It's interesting watching some of these you know some of these mines that obviously at 410 on the spot side of silver didn't make a lot of money being brought back to market here at $100 silver. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think uh there's a lot of projects that you know people would poo poo, but they're not going to do that at $50 plus, let alone $100 silver. >> Yeah. You know, you you turn on the news just like me, I'm sure. I mean, I haven't seen your algorithm on YouTube, but if you come on and you're looking at Kiko News, there's a lot of others talking about the silver market at this point. And we were talking about before how at a show like this, there's a lot of new, younger generation coming into the market. What do you think is the most misunderstood thing looking at 2026? >> Um I I think there's too much worry about where the silver price is going to going to go, right? Look, at $100, um the silver price is uh at a at a level where these companies are going to do quite well. They're going to generate revenue that allow them to pay dividends. and and so the the investment thesis for these companies is going to is going to change in a way that you haven't haven't seen before and I think uh there's there's too much chasing you know the new thing it's it's you know to a certain extent seeing these assets operate and and produce and then look for things that um that that have are that the risk profile of putting things into production is can be managed Yeah, >> as a producer, I mean, you run numbers at $100 silver. Are you looking at what what what is our new base on the all in sustaining costs? I mean, are you I mean, these haven't even hit the revenue numbers yet on a lot of these companies. >> Yeah. So, it's it certainly costs will go up. Um, no doubt about that. But if you look at the average cost of the primary silver producers, somewhere below $20 is where it has has been. You know, I think you'll see it increase. But you think about those margins whether the price of silver is 100 or or plus or minus that those margins are going to be extraordinary. Are you you know we we got to address the risks that come with success obviously when we look at some of these things. I mean the commodity margins have exploded a little bit but obviously government scrutiny usually follows. So I'm just wondering you know if you were a CEO today are you are you preparing for windfall taxes or is it more royalty hikes? >> Um I I'm I I would suggest to you in this market given the recognition of the importance of the minerals being produced. That's not that's not the thing I would be concerned with now. >> You know, years into the future, yeah, that's probably something to have some concern over, but not at the moment. >> Okay. I like this because, you know, I was talking to a couple of contrarians just before and they said, "Okay, I don't know how long this bubble has to run. I mean, is the base now I mean, we don't need to. It's 103 and the spot market closes in, you know, 7 hours. So, who knows what it's going to be pushed back to or where it'll settle. But is $80 kind of the new base? >> Yeah, it's hard to say where the where the base is, but it's certainly at a level that the companies will generate significant free cash flow for development, for paying dividends, uh, you know, for growth. Um, so I that's not something I would be too terribly concerned with. >> We talked a little bit about that decoupling of silver. You know, we always talk silver gold ratio, what have you. I mean, the fact that these two metals have been going together and every dip in gold comes with a dip in silver. We know how it works, but you know, >> silver's been catching up. >> It's been catching up. I mean, it almost feels like this year it's just getting started. The bubble narrative might be a little bit too quick. >> Yeah, I it's I think it's absolutely corrections are likely to happen. there's it never goes straight up and it'll be interesting to see um how big of a correction you have and and get rid of really weak hands, people that are just simply momentum traders, but in you know over the long term it's going to continue to to increase over over time. >> Yeah. I got to ask you just uh and I I know you can't obviously offer any investment advice, but I mean you've been an investor in this space and talking to investors here on the ground. You know, they've been holding on to these positions for 5 10 years waiting for this market. Finally, it's coming alive. Are people selling too early? I mean, would you recommend taking a bit of profit and just keeping in your, you know, your cost or something? >> Yeah, certainly that's what I've done. But, but um yeah, there's there's nothing wrong with taking some profits. Um but the fundamental basis the rationale for why gold is has increased this whole debasement all of the uncertainty that's happened none of that is going away any anytime soon and as a result of that gold silver uh you know all the things that are happening to grow the economy makes copper look very attractive so none of that is changing and you know I it's not something where you I think you need to sort of run from this this uh sector. >> Good advice. Okay, I'll leave you with this cuz every time we have you on the program, I always get written by viewers and they say, "What the hell is Phil working on these days?" I know you just brought up a couple of the projects, but in 2026, I mean, you're pretty behind the scenes. Where can people follow you? I mean, what are the big things you can look for? I know there's announcements in the pipeline. >> Yeah. Yeah. Look, I will be going on another board and it's unfortunately I can't mention it yet. >> The timing just isn't right. >> Right. Can't mention it yet, but but I'll be going on another board. And look, I I'm interested in working on things that are in particular jurisdictions. I'm interested in working with friends and I'm interested in working in silver sort of anywhere in the world. So things that fit into those three categories are stuff that I'm I'm working. >> So we'll continue to see you all throughout the year. All right, Phil joining us. Thanks. I appreciate it. Phil Baker, of course, joining us. And you can check out more about what he's working on, including that Nevada property. We'll put a link into the description. Uh again, we just got here. V-Rick is underway here in Vancouver, BC. It's a beautiful day outside. Not that you would notice it inside of here, but a lot of momentum, a lot of investors talking about $100 silver and $5,000 gold. We're going to have some great uh great guests all week long. Be sure to hit subscribe. We'll see you next time. Kitco News on-site coverage of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference is presented by Discovery Silver.