| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The Iran war that began in late February has disrupted President Trump's economic agenda, causing oil prices to surge 40%, the dollar to strengthen 2%, and Treasury yields to rise 0.5%. The NASDAQ fell 10% into correction territory while commodities soared 24.4% as the conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Core inflation remains elevated at 3.1%, well above the Fed's 2% target, with energy price spikes expected to push it higher. The labor market shows fragility with unemployment rising to 4.4% and weak job creation. However, the manager expects a rapid resolution driven by political necessity, as President Trump faces 57-59% disapproval ratings with midterm elections seven months away and Republicans holding only a 3-seat House margin. Once hostilities cease, energy prices should normalize, inflationary pressures should ease, and favorable fundamentals including robust earnings growth projections of 17.1% for 2026 should reassert themselves. The manager sees this as a temporary disruption to an otherwise constructive investment environment.
The Iran war represents a temporary but significant disruption to markets and the economy, but political pressures from upcoming midterm elections will force a rapid resolution, allowing favorable fundamentals including fiscal stimulus, AI investment, and robust earnings growth to reassert themselves.
The manager expects a rapid resolution to the Iran conflict driven by political necessity ahead of midterm elections, which should lead to energy price normalization and reduced inflationary pressures. This would be favorable for international equities, US small caps, and cyclical/value stocks in a market re-broadening. Bond yields are expected to retrace recent rises as risk aversion dissipates.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | commodities, Fed policy, Geopolitical, inflation, Iran, Midterm Elections, oil | - | The Iran war has disrupted markets with oil up 40% and stocks down 10%, but political pressures from upcoming midterms will force rapid resolution. With Trump facing 57% disapproval and a thin House majority, ending the conflict is politically essential. Once resolved, energy normalization and strong earnings fundamentals should drive market recovery. |
| Jan 26 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL | AI, Economic Growth, geopolitics, Labor Market, monetary policy, technology, Valuations | - | Peapack Private sees 2026 starting positively with accommodative policy, AI investment boom, and earnings growth supporting markets. Key risks include labor market weakness, bubble-level valuations, AI over-investment with poor returns, and geopolitical uncertainty. Recommends maintaining equity exposure while favoring small caps and international markets over expensive US large caps, extending bond duration. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL | AI, inflation, monetary policy, productivity, rates, small caps, technology, Trade Policy | - | Markets are experiencing unprecedented abundance from policy support, AI investment boom, and corporate profit growth. Despite elevated valuations, compelling case exists for further equity appreciation given favorable fiscal/monetary backdrop and productivity revolution narrative. Key positioning: maintain large-cap exposure, emphasize small-caps and international stocks for relative value, extend fixed income duration. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | SPX | Cost of Equity, Equity Risk Premium, inflation, interest rates, Market Analysis, P/E Ratio, S&P 500, valuation | - | The S&P 500's 23.46x P/E ratio places markets in historically expensive territory with the Implied Cost of Equity at 7.4% near peak valuation bands. Further upside depends more on earnings growth than multiple expansion unless rates ease or risk premiums compress. The framework suggests caution while acknowledging expensive markets can persist longer than expected. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ACAD.ST, ALLFG.L, BFSA.MC, CELL.MI, DFS.L, DOM.L, EBRO.MC, EXPG, HEAD.L, INCH.L, MIDW.L, MON.MI, NRMG.DE, ORG.L, PSG.MC, RHIM.L, RITN.SW, SESA.MI, TGS.OL, WTB.L | Banking, Cyclical, Europe, oil, small caps, undervalued, value |
DPZ.L RIEN.SW |
EQUAM Global Value declined 3.9% in Q3 due to zero banking exposure and European small-cap focus. Despite underperformance, fund maintains slight outperformance since inception. Manager sees 112% upside potential in current portfolio of 45 undervalued European companies. New Domino's Pizza investment capitalizes on 43% decline. Defensive positioning against demanding market valuations and macro risks. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ALLFG.L, BFSA.MC, CELL.MI, DFS.L, DHG.L, ENO.MC, EXPRO, INCH.L, KINE.BR, MRL.L, NOEJ.DE, OGN.L, RHI.L, SESA.MI, STM.DE, TGS.OL | Entertainment, Europe, small caps, Trade Policy, undervaluation, value | KINP.BR | EQUAM Global Value continues finding compelling opportunities in neglected European small and mid-cap value companies trading at steep discounts. Despite trade policy volatility and oil sector weakness, the fund added cinema operator Kinepolis and benefited from portfolio company value-unlocking activities. With 100% upside potential and disciplined value approach, the manager remains optimistic about long-term returns. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ABBV, ACLX, ARGX, AZN, BSX, CDTX, COO, HRTX, INSM, IONS, ISRG, JNJ, LLY, MASI, PFE, RDNT, ROIV, SYK, TMO, UNH, WAT, XENE | AI, Biotechnology, GLP-1, healthcare, M&A, Medical Devices, Pharmaceuticals | - | Baron Health Care Fund delivered solid Q3 performance driven by strong biotechnology stock selection, particularly argenx and Insmed benefiting from clinical successes. AI-enhanced medical solutions like RadNet and Heartflow also contributed. The fund added 16 positions amid attractive sector valuations while managing regulatory risks around drug pricing. Long-term outlook remains positive given aging demographics and technological advances. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 005930.KS, 012330.KS, BOL.PA, CNQ, FOXA, GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, PEP, PG, SCHW, UHAL, UMG.AS, VIV.PA | AI, global, Media, risk management, semiconductors, value |
005930.KS BOL.PA UHAL |
Yacktman underperformed in Q3 but maintains conviction in their value-focused approach amid expensive market valuations. Samsung's AI chip breakthrough and Fox's succession clarity drove gains, while Bolloré and U-Haul detracted despite intact theses. The team leverages 30+ years of crisis experience, positioning for capital protection and outperformance during inevitable market turbulence. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | NVDA | AI, Buybacks, Credit Stress, Dollar, emerging markets, government debt, inflation, technology | - | Despite ballooning government debt globally, equity markets continue rising on AI enthusiasm and structural liquidity flows. Nvidia exemplifies the AI boom, rising from $308 billion to $4.4 trillion market cap. Daily $7-8 billion flows from buybacks and retail investors, plus a moribund IPO market, create bubble dynamics. Weakening dollar stimulates emerging markets while forcing investors from unattractive bonds into stocks. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | GLXY.TO, LRCX, META, MSFT, MU, SOXX, V, VOO | AI, global, large cap, rates, semiconductors, technology | - | Alpine Capital maintains conviction in AI-driven technology leaders while executing tactical rotations in semiconductors. Fed rate cuts and supportive policy create favorable conditions for risk assets. The manager's concentrated, patient approach targets long-term outperformance through AI beneficiaries, expecting continued market upside despite acknowledging risks from geopolitical tensions and semiconductor spending dynamics. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Consumer Sentiment, earnings, Fed policy, inflation, Market Performance, Trade Policy | - | Markets surged in Q2 2025 with S&P 500 up 10.2% and NASDAQ gaining 16.7% on cooling inflation and strong earnings. Fed held rates steady while tariffs created selective volatility. Tech rebounded 23% from Q1 correction. Consumer confidence remains fragile and valuations elevated at 21.9x forward P/E, but disinflation trends support continued momentum. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN | Capitalism, Geopolitical, South Africa, tariffs, technology, Trade Policy, United States | - | Alpine Capital views Q1 2025's tariff-driven market disruption as temporary adjustment rather than structural decline. The firm maintains high conviction in American capitalism and technology dominance while deliberately underweighting South Africa due to structural challenges. Despite near-term uncertainty, Alpine expects consolidation in 2025 with selective opportunities emerging as valuations reset from previous peaks. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMZN, GS, HCLTECH.NS, INFY, JPM, MSFT, ORCL, RR.L, TCS.NS, TECHM.NS, WMT | aerospace, defense, emerging markets, India, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Gymkhana Partners focuses on small-cap Indian companies benefiting from domestic consumption growth and defense indigenization trends. Despite U.S. tariffs reaching 50%, India's economy remains resilient with exports to America representing only 2.2% of GDP. The fund has shifted toward smaller, mispriced opportunities while maintaining conviction in India's structural advantages including skilled labor and diversified trade relationships. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
IranThe Iran war that began in late February has created significant economic disruption, causing oil prices to skyrocket 40%, strengthening the US dollar by 2%, and raising Treasury yields by 0.5%. The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, creating supply shocks for energy, fertilizer, aluminum and helium exports. |
Geopolitical Oil Supply Chain Inflation Energy |
OilBrent crude oil has surged 67.5% during the quarter due to the Iran conflict, with liquefied natural gas up 90%. Energy price spikes are driving broader inflationary pressures and forcing companies like Dow Chemical to double polyethylene prices and Toyota to implement three price hikes in 2026. |
Energy Commodities Inflation Supply Shock | |
InflationCore PCE inflation remains elevated at 3.1% annualized, well above the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years. The Iran war is expected to push inflation higher through energy price increases and supply chain disruptions, with the Producer Price Index already at 3.4% before the conflict began. |
Fed Policy Energy Supply Chain Monetary Policy | |
CommoditiesCommodities were the standout performer with 24.4% returns, driven by energy price spikes but also including wheat futures up 20.2%, aluminum up 20.1%, and gold climbing 9.5%. The commodity surge reflects both geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions from the Iran conflict. |
Energy Metals Agriculture Supply Chain | |
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, disrupting 20 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Once the Permian's current gas production surge runs its course, supply growth should plateau and eventually decline, setting the stage for materially higher prices. |
Henry Hub LNG Permian Shale Gas | |
SilverSilver surged 51% in Q4 and over 140% for the year, staging a dramatic catch-up rally relative to gold. This magnitude of silver outperformance has historically marked important turning points, triggering sell signals for precious metals. The current rally parallels the explosive 1979 move that signaled the end of the great gold bull market. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
CopperCopper markets have moved back into surplus with exchange inventories rising to 1.2 million tonnes, levels last seen in 2003 when copper traded below $0.90 per pound. Despite strong performance in 2025, the persistent rise in inventories suggests the market has entered a prolonged period of surplus. |
Copper Base Metals Inventories | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs continued their powerful advance with platinum and palladium each surging 28% in Q4. Policy reversals in both the U.S. and Europe are unwinding the aggressive push toward electric vehicles, supporting longer-term demand for internal combustion engines and auto-catalysts. The bearish narrative built on rapid EV adoption is being rewritten. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts Electric Vehicles | |
CommoditiesThe commodity bull market has barely begun, with most commodities trading 46% below historical nominal peaks and 73% below real peaks when adjusted for inflation. Commodities remain near the lowest levels relative to equities observed in over a century, suggesting the current cycle is only one-third complete in both duration and magnitude. |
Commodity Cycle Capital Cycle Valuation | |
GoldGold advanced 13% in Q4 and approximately 65% for the year, continuing its strong performance. However, silver's explosive catch-up rally has triggered a sell signal for gold, suggesting investors should consider reducing exposure in the short term. Gold now trades in the upper quartile of its historical valuation range relative to equities. |
Gold Precious Metals Monetary Policy | |
Energy TransitionThe Trump administration has repealed California's Advanced Clean Cars II regulation and rolled back CAFE standards, while Europe has stepped back from strict ICE vehicle bans. These policy reversals are unwinding the aggressive push toward electric vehicles and removing what many viewed as backdoor EV mandates. |
Electric Vehicles Policy ICE Vehicles | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIHyperscalers' capital expenditure growth has been booming, soaring 75% in 2025, with leading US technology companies spending tens of billions on GPUs and AI model development. AI enthusiasts believe we are on the cusp of a paradigmatic shift upward in productivity that will transform the economy and reshape work. AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched. |
GPUs Productivity Hyperscalers Capital Expenditure Technology |
InflationCore Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rose 2.9% over the past 12 months, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% target. Tariff receipts have been rising substantially, with monthly collections reaching $31 billion in August and September versus less than $7 billion average in 2023-2024. The stimulative monetary and fiscal policy initiatives could accelerate economic growth and contribute to greater inflation impulse. |
PCE Tariffs Fed Target Policy Stimulus Price Pressures | |
RatesThe Federal Open Market Committee cut its Fed funds rate by one quarter percentage point in September and signaled two additional rate cuts by year end. The Fed is poised to end quantitative tightening and has shifted focus to its full employment mandate. Changes in committee composition next year will likely increase presence of inflation doves pushing for lower rates. |
Fed Funds Rate Cuts Quantitative Tightening Employment Mandate Monetary Policy | |
Small CapsRelative valuations for US small cap stocks are striking, with the valuation gap versus large cap stocks the widest since the 1990s by some measures. Small cap stocks are more sensitive to interest rates, more cyclical, bigger beneficiaries of lower rates, and more domestically focused, making them beneficiaries of the current policy setup. After a long stretch of under-performance, small caps may be poised to lead the charge. |
Valuation Gap Interest Rate Sensitivity Domestic Focus Cyclical Under-performance | |
Trade PolicyTrade policy continues to follow a somewhat erratic path, but uncertainty around tariffs has diminished notably. The announcement of trade deals suggests the overall tariff rate will come in at approximately 14%, a substantial rise from prior levels but well below initial indications. Resolution of tariff and trade issues is constructive for businesses as they formulate investment and hiring plans. |
Tariff Rate Trade Deals Business Planning Uncertainty Policy Resolution | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValuationThe S&P 500 P/E ratio of 23.46x ranks among the highest since 1963, with the Implied Cost of Equity at 7.4% placing markets in the upper valuation bands. Further upside depends more on earnings growth than multiple expansion unless long rates ease or risk premiums compress. |
P/E Ratio Valuation Cost of Equity Risk Premium Interest Rates |
RatesInterest rates are directly correlated to P/E multiples, with higher rates placing downward pressure on multiples while lower rates support higher valuations. The relationship between bond yields and earnings yields shows high correlation with R2 of 43%. |
Interest Rates Bond Yields Earnings Yield Fed Policy Treasury | |
InflationThe risk-free rate reflects inflation expectations, and historically changes have been correlated with inflationary expectations. The 2020 rate environment was unique with both inflation and rates at record lows, creating uncertainty about sustainability. |
Inflation Deflation Price Stability Monetary Policy Economic Growth | |
| 2025 Q1 |
ValueFund invests in companies trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value with upside potential of 112%. Portfolio comprises companies with solid businesses acquired at attractive multiples with low debt levels. |
Discount Intrinsic Value Undervalued Multiples Upside |
Small CapsFund focuses on European small and medium-sized companies, a market sector that has been abandoned by investors. Currently holds investments in 45 companies with low liquidity at 2%. |
European SMID Abandoned Diversified Portfolio | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueEuropean small and mid-cap companies continue to trade at unusually low valuations despite good business fundamentals. The fund's portfolio trades at a steep discount to indices and conservative business valuations, creating significant upside potential of around 100%. |
Undervaluation Discount Intrinsic Value Upside Mispricing |
Trade PolicyThe first half was marked by US announcement of import duties on trading partners, creating market volatility and uncertainty. While markets initially fell significantly in April due to fears of negative economic impact, they recovered as the US postponed duty implementation to allow negotiation time. |
Tariffs Import Duties Protectionism Trade Wars Volatility | |
EntertainmentNew investment in Kinepolis, a leading cinema operator with 110 cinemas across Europe, US and Canada. Despite declining attendance trends, the company has grown revenues through price increases and premium offerings, positioning it well for recovery as Hollywood blockbuster releases normalize. |
Cinema Entertainment Recovery Premium Consolidation | |
| 2024 Q3 |
BiotechnologyStrong stock selection in biotechnology contributed the vast majority of relative gains, with main drivers being argenx SE and Insmed Incorporated. The quarter saw several positive biotechnology clinical data readouts, a strong rebound in biotechnology funding, and an acceleration in M&A activity. |
FcRn inhibitors Autoimmune Pulmonary diseases Clinical trials Drug approvals |
AIAI-driven solutions are having benefits on company operations, particularly in diagnostic imaging with RadNet benefiting from AI-enabled software upgrades and Heartflow's AI algorithm improving with scale and data to enable margin expansion. |
Medical imaging Diagnostic algorithms Workflow automation Data analytics Margin expansion | |
GLP1Long term, the GLP-1 drug class is expected to become the standard of care for diabetes and obesity, ultimately representing a $150 billion-plus market. GLP-1 adoption remains in the early stages, and continued uptake should drive a near doubling of Lilly's total revenues by 2030. |
Diabetes Obesity Oral therapy Market expansion Revenue growth | |
Biopharma M&AThe third quarter saw an acceleration in M&A activity in biotechnology. The manager expects several data readouts in the coming years to de-risk multiple blockbuster opportunities and generate upside for companies like Roivant Sciences. |
Deal activity Pipeline development Valuation expansion Data catalysts Business development | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValueThe fund seeks opportunities where company value is misunderstood and the price fairly compensates for risks. They carefully consider the price paid for investments and look for mispriced assets. The portfolio is positioned to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns in tumultuous markets. |
Value Mispriced Risk-adjusted |
SemiconductorsSamsung announced its first design win with Nvidia for high bandwidth memory chips this quarter, validating its position in the HBM chip market. Memory chips are found in data center servers to automobiles and refrigerators, with finite production capacity and few players who can provide these components. |
Memory HBM DRAM Fabrication | |
AISamsung was late to the artificial intelligence party but achieved a milestone with its HBM chip design win. Alphabet has participated in the AI frenzy despite longer-term risks to its advertising revenue from AI developments. |
AI HBM Data Centers | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIMarkets have become obsessed with AI leading to a surge of productivity and profitability since ChatGPT's release in November 2022. The largest companies are investing gargantuan sums to secure AI advantages, leading to extraordinary increases in market capitalizations like Nvidia's rise from $308 billion to $4.4 trillion in three years. Any disappointment on AI would leave markets vulnerable, particularly in the US. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity Technology Nvidia ChatGPT |
InflationGlobally markets are in a classic inflationary boom with fiscal and monetary conditions loose in all major economies. Every month over the last four years inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The return of inflation five years ago contributed to bonds being a poor investment over the last decade, with ten-year rolling returns from US Treasuries at minus 1.3%. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Central Banks Interest Rates Fiscal Policy | |
BuybacksS&P companies are generating excess cashflow and returning a lot of that to shareholders through share buybacks. Together with flows from retail investors, $7-8 billion dollars of liquidity flows into the US market every day. The S&P resembles a cash machine which recycles much of the cash it produces back into the market, creating a perfect recipe for a bubble. |
Share Repurchases Cashflow Liquidity Retail Investors Market Dynamics | |
DollarThe dollar continued to weaken and is now down 9.9% for the year, reflecting this move Gold has risen by 47% year to date. The falling dollar is highly stimulative for Emerging Markets, encouraging investors into other parts of the world. The euro has gained 13.3% against the dollar this year, leading to lower import costs and rate cuts which improve growth in emerging markets. |
Currency Exchange Rates Gold Emerging Markets Euro | |
Credit StressUS National Debt exceeds $37 trillion, equivalent to about $279,000 per household. President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill will increase the US fiscal deficit by a further US$3 trillion over the next decade. Both the UK and France have appalling debt profiles which continue to deteriorate. The continuing risk is that when governments cannot tax, they start to print money to pay the difference, thereby debasing their currency and eroding bond values. |
Government Debt Fiscal Deficit Sovereign Risk Debt Sustainability Currency Debasement | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIOrganizations must prioritize AI investments to avoid obsolescence, with hyperscalers redirecting infrastructure spending toward AI initiatives. AI promises cost reductions and technological breakthroughs while displacing human labor and unlocking novel efficiencies. The manager sees AI as having potential to double economic growth by empowering individuals and enterprises to achieve far more. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Technology Growth |
SemiconductorsThe manager executed a rotation from Micron to the iShares Semiconductor ETF and added Lam Research. Circular spending within the semiconductor industry and OpenAI is raising some red flags with long-term repercussions unclear. However, the manager doesn't view it as a pressing crisis and bubble worries feel distant. |
Semi Equipment Memory Technology ETFs Cyclical | |
RatesThe Fed executed its first rate cut of the cycle in September to 4.00%-4.25% range amid cooling inflation and rising unemployment concerns. Two more 25bps cuts are anticipated this year in late October and December. The rate-easing cycle is underpinned by 3.8% GDP growth and 7% fiscal deficits. |
Monetary Policy Inflation Growth Liquidity Macro | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationBoth Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index showed meaningful cooling, with CPI declining 0.1% in June 2025 marking the first monthly drop since May 2020. Core CPI rose just 0.1% in June, the smallest increase since August 2021, supporting valuations across sectors. |
CPI PPI Disinflation Core Prices |
Trade PolicyNewly imposed tariffs on select imports, particularly in tech and renewable energy sectors, reshaped investor expectations. Markets interpreted these trade policy shifts as manageable and potentially stimulative to domestic production in the medium term, though they introduced pockets of volatility. |
Tariffs Imports Domestic Policy Volatility | |
RatesFederal Reserve maintained benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need for greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent before considering rate cuts. The Fed remains data-dependent with a patient stance on monetary policy. |
Fed Powell Monetary Policy Data | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration's tariff policies have created significant market disruption and operational paralysis across sectors. The rapid introduction, partial retraction, and reinstatement of tariffs has created volatility that challenges market stability, though the intent to rectify trade disparities is supported in principle. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Disruption Supply Chain |
United StatesThe US exemplifies the capitalist paradigm more than any other nation, hosting the world's largest and most profitable corporations. American technology firms dominate the digital domain and are positioned to capture expanding global financial flows, reinforcing the US as a cornerstone of investment strategy. |
Capitalism Technology Global Leadership Innovation | |
South AfricaAlpine maintains measured restraint with deliberate underweighting to South Africa due to persistent capital outflows, political instability, and economic stagnation. The ZAR remains under pressure despite high real interest rates, and equity markets lack catalysts for meaningful recovery. |
ZAR Underweight Capital Outflows Political Risk Bonds | |
| 2023 Q1 |
IndiaIndia is the world's fastest-growing major economy, on track to overtake Germany as the third-biggest by 2028. The economy shows resilience against U.S. tariffs due to its domestic consumer-driven growth, with goods exports to the U.S. accounting for just 2.2% of GDP. India's buoyant economic growth, monetary policy credibility, fiscal discipline, and reformist governance were rewarded with an S&P sovereign credit rating upgrade. |
Domestic consumption GDP growth Sovereign rating Economic resilience Consumer driven |
DefenseThe fund has increased exposure to defense/aerospace businesses, which now account for roughly 6% of capital. Companies are benefiting from the ongoing indigenization of India's defense/aerospace procurement. Examples include Airbus awarding Dynamatic Technologies one of the largest-ever aerospace export contracts won by an Indian company, and Rolls-Royce signing a long-term deal with Azad Engineering. |
Indigenization Aerospace Defense procurement Export contracts Manufacturing | |
Trade PolicyThe U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods in late July 2025, followed by an additional 25% tariff in August, bringing total duties to 50% on categories including apparel, chemicals, and jewelry. However, pharmaceuticals and electronics remain exempt. Mounting U.S. trade barriers have accelerated India's pursuit of free trade deals with other countries like the UK, UAE, and potentially the EU. |
Tariffs Trade barriers Free trade agreements Export diversification Trade relations | |
Small CapsCompanies with market caps below $500 million account for 56% of Gymkhana's invested capital, up roughly 10 percentage points from last year. The portfolio's average market capitalization is just under $1 billion, down from nearly $2 billion last fall. This shift reflects exiting larger-cap positions at substantial gains and adding to smaller, more attractively mispriced companies. |
Market capitalization Portfolio concentration Mispricing Value opportunities Position sizing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Peapack Private | 005930.KS | Samsung Electronics Co Ltd | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Korea Stock Exchange | Artificial Intelligence, automotive, consumer electronics, Corporate Governance, data centers, DRAM, geopolitical risk, HBM, memory chips, NVIDIA, semiconductors, South Korea | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Peapack Private | BOL.PA | Bollore SE | Communication Services | Media | Bull | Euronext Paris | asset value, balance sheet, conglomerate, Corporate Restructuring, discount to NAV, Europe, media, net asset value, Sum-of-parts, Universal Music Group, Vivendi | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Peapack Private | UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | Analyst Coverage, business transformation, capital allocation, Cash Flow Reinvestment, Occupancy Ramp, recurring revenue, REIT Economics, Self-storage, Truck Rental | Login |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Peapack Private | DPZ.L | Domino's Pizza Group PLC | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bull | London Stock Exchange | asset-light, Consumer Discretionary, franchise expansion, market share gains, Master Franchisee, Pizza Delivery, royalty revenue, UK Market Leader | Login |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Peapack Private | RIEN.SW | Rieter Holding AG | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | SIX Swiss Exchange | Acquisition Financing, arbitrage opportunity, Capital Increase, Industrial Consolidation, Manufacturing Equipment, Rights Offering, Swiss Industrial, Textile Machinery | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Peapack Private | KINP.BR | Kinepolis | Communication Services | Movies & Entertainment | Bull | Euronext Brussels | Belgium, Cinema, consolidation, entertainment, Europe, operating leverage, premium services, Real Estate, recovery, Value | Login |
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