| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The final quarter of 2025 capped a standout year shaped by Donald Trump's political actions and accelerating AI momentum. Technology companies are pouring billions into data center construction, creating concerns about potential market corrections. U.S. indices experienced heightened volatility while emerging markets, led by South Korea's 84% rally, significantly outpaced U.S. equities. European markets also outperformed with Euro Stoxx 600 gaining 36.8% versus S&P 500's 17.9%. Bond markets showed mixed dynamics with corporate credit spreads narrowing to historic lows. Precious metals rallied on debasement fears while oil declined on supply concerns. The Federal Reserve postponed easing until year-end, prompting reassessment of future rate cuts. Geopolitical risks included ceasefire deals and ongoing sanctions. Looking ahead to 2026, strategists project continued but more moderate equity returns driven by AI integration across industries. Monetary and fiscal stimuli should provide support, particularly for Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. equities, while geopolitical developments will influence risk asset flows.
The market outlook for 2026 remains constructive with continued but more moderate equity returns expected, driven by ongoing AI integration across industries and supported by monetary and fiscal stimuli, particularly benefiting Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. equities.
Most market strategists project continued, though more moderate, equity returns compared with the robust gains of the past three years. Growth is expected to be underpinned by ongoing AI integration across industries. Monetary and fiscal stimuli should provide further support, with more upside for Europe, emerging markets, and U.S. equities. Geopolitical developments will influence risk assets and safe-haven flows.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, AZN, BABA, BHP, FMG, GOOGL, HD, IBE, LLY, META, MSFT, NFLX, NTDOY, NVDA, RHM, RIO, ROG, SK, SPOT, TCEHY, TM, TSM, XIAOF, XRO | AI, Data centers, emerging markets, geopolitics, rates, technology | - | Q4 2025 concluded a volatile year dominated by AI investment surge and Trump's political influence. Emerging markets led by South Korea significantly outperformed U.S. equities. Looking ahead, strategists expect continued but moderate returns driven by AI integration and monetary stimulus, with particular upside for Europe and emerging markets. |
| Oct 31 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 1211.HK, ADVT, ASML, AVGO, CRM, DDOG, ENTG, FTNT, GOOGL, INTU, LSE.L, MC.PA, MDT, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, SAP, TMO, ZS | AI, Bubble, Cloud, growth, semiconductors, technology | - | Growth strategy gained 4.3% in Q3 driven by AI holdings like Oracle and Broadcom. Manager sees AI bubble forming but maintains conviction in long-term opportunity. Trimmed winners for risk management while adding selective new positions. Focus remains on quality companies with strong moats positioned for AI transformation while avoiding excessive risk concentration. |
| Jul 31 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, earnings, Fed policy, rates, small caps, technology | - | Markets hit new highs in Q3 driven by Fed rate cuts and AI investment boom. Small caps outperformed on rate cut optimism while technology spending grew 14% year-over-year. Risks include tight credit spreads and expensive AI valuations. Q4 outlook remains constructive with soft landing as base case, though Federal Reserve policy will dominate headlines. |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Fed policy, inflation, Market Volatility, tariffs, Trade Policy, Valuations | - | Trade policy volatility defined the first half of 2025, with Q1 escalation causing a 15% market decline followed by Q2 de-escalation driving a strong rebound. Despite the drama, markets ended near where they started the year. The manager advocates staying disciplined and focused on long-term goals rather than reacting to policy uncertainty. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Live SportsManager sees significant value in sports teams and entertainment assets, recommending Atlanta Braves Holdings, Madison Square Garden Sports, and Manchester United. Emphasizes growing global interest in live sports experiences and institutional investor appetite for sports assets. |
Sports Teams Entertainment Media Rights Valuation |
MediaBullish on Fox and Versant Media Group, highlighting Fox's sports assets and World Cup rights. Notes Versant's strong EBITDA generation and debt paydown potential after Comcast spinoff created selling pressure. |
Broadcasting Cable Networks Content Spinoffs | |
Natural GasRecommends National Fuel Gas based on Appalachian Basin reserves and strategic location near population centers. Sees unappreciated value in gas reserves with potential for higher earnings and possible company split-up. |
Utilities Energy Infrastructure Reserves Regulation | |
AIAcknowledges AI's transformative impact but warns of potential disappointment for investors. Compares current AI boom to late 1990s tech revolution with multiple speculative solutions and expects market volatility. |
Technology Disruption Speculation Volatility | |
TariffsNotes tariffs increased recession odds and sent markets into -12% decline. Discusses potential Supreme Court ruling that could invalidate tariffs and force refunds to importers exceeding $100 billion. |
Trade Policy Economic Impact Legal Risk Refunds | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe AI arms race among technology companies is in full flight with massive investments in AI infrastructure. The long-term opportunity in Generative AI keeps growing as adoption rates increase and usage broadens, with 77% of companies using AI for automation patterns. However, risks are rising with signs of an AI bubble forming. |
Infrastructure Automation Bubble Investment Adoption |
SemiconductorsPortfolio benefited from AI-related semiconductor holdings including ASML, Advantest, and Broadcom. ASML's High NA EUV technology provides a clear competitive moat for the next 10-15 years. Broadcom is positioned as a prime beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout through their XPU chips and networking capabilities. |
Equipment EUV XPU Lithography Infrastructure | |
CloudOracle's cloud infrastructure business showed explosive growth with unprecedented contract wins including a potential $30B annual contract with OpenAI. Microsoft's Azure accelerated to 39% growth driven by AI demand. Cloud infrastructure is becoming central to AI deployment strategies. |
Infrastructure Growth Contracts Azure Hyperscaler | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AITechnology-related investment grew 14% year-over-year in Q2, the fastest pace since the late 1990s, driven by AI industry buildout including high-performance computer chips, cloud architecture, and data center construction. Management teams across the AI supply chain report strong demand with spending plans in the hundreds of billions and order backlogs spanning years. AI enthusiasm has fueled outsized gains in technology and semiconductor stocks, though some question whether spending is outpacing potential revenue growth. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Technology |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% in September after a 9-month pause, framing it as a risk management cut to keep economic expansion on track. The central bank updated its policy forecast to include two more rate cuts before year-end with potential for more in 2026. The rate cut marked a shift toward policy support and fueled optimism for a soft landing scenario. |
Monetary Policy Fed Policy Interest Rates | |
Small CapsSmall-cap stocks rallied sharply in anticipation of the Fed's rate cut, with the Russell 2000 surpassing its previous high from 2021 and returning nearly 12% in Q3. Small caps posted their biggest quarter of outperformance over the S&P 500 since Q1 2021 as investors bet that rate cuts would benefit smaller companies. |
Russell 2000 Rate Sensitivity Outperformance | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrade policy uncertainty dominated the first half of 2025, with escalation in Q1 followed by de-escalation in Q2. The administration implemented targeted tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, then announced sweeping global tariffs before pivoting toward trade agreements. Policy uncertainty caused market volatility and influenced Fed decisions to pause rate cuts. |
Tariffs China Policy Uncertainty Escalation |
InflationTariff uncertainty caused inflation expectations to rise sharply despite actual inflation remaining subdued. Consumer expectations diverged significantly from trailing inflation data, creating a debate about whether companies will pass through tariff costs or absorb them to remain competitive. |
Expectations Consumer Tariffs Pricing CPI | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve held interest rates steady due to trade policy uncertainty, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Markets expect gradual rate cuts beginning in September, with approximately 1.25% of cuts anticipated over the next 18 months based on fed funds futures pricing. |
Fed Cuts Uncertainty Futures Policy |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GOOGL | Shares of Google parent Alphabet climbed, in part due to the company's strong third quarter earnings. Alphabet was mentioned among companies with stellar quarterly earnings reports that offset investor worries about high valuations among artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA was mentioned as one of the AI-linked companies with stellar quarterly earnings reports that helped offset investor worries about high valuations among artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. |
| MSFT | Microsoft was mentioned as having stellar quarterly earnings reports among AI-linked companies. However, Microsoft was among the largest detractors from S&P 500 returns despite strong earnings, in part due to concerns about overspending, particularly on AI. |
| AAPL | Apple shares advanced during the quarter. |
| AMZN | Amazon shares also advanced during the quarter. |
| LLY | Eli Lilly shares rose as a November deal with President Trump provided tariff exemptions and access to Medicare patients to the GLP-1 maker. |
| META | Shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms lost ground during the quarter. |
| NFLX | Netflix shares also lost ground during the quarter. |
| HD | Home Depot shares also lost ground during the quarter. |
| AZN | Shares of drug giants AstraZeneca rose more than 20% during the quarter amid strong earnings and sales growth in the health care sector. |
| ROG | Shares of drug giants Roche rose more than 20% during the quarter amid strong earnings and sales growth in the health care sector. |
| IBE | Spanish energy company Iberdrola reported a 17% rise in third-quarter net profit to €5.3 billion and raised its full-year profit guidance to €6.6 billion. Iberdrola shares gained nearly 15% for the quarter. |
| SPOT | Shares of Spotify fell nearly 17%. While the music streaming company enjoyed strong quarterly earnings, it reported a 6% decline in advertising revenue and issued weaker guidance for the fourth quarter. |
| RHM | Rheinmetall shares lost more than 20% as investors took profits following a remarkable rally. Over the past two years, shares of the German defense contractor have posted strong returns amid sharply higher defense spending in Europe. |
| TM | Toyota shares rose following plans to expand U.S. and hybrid vehicle manufacturing. |
| NTDOY | Shares of Nintendo dropped, weighed down by investor concerns that rising costs for its manufacturing parts, including memory chips, could negatively impact its profit. |
| BHP | Miners like BHP saw their shares rise as demand for metals like copper pushed prices to record highs. |
| RIO | Miners like Rio Tinto saw their shares rise as demand for metals like copper pushed prices to record highs. |
| FMG | Miners like Fortescue saw their shares rise as demand for metals like copper pushed prices to record highs. |
| XRO | Shares of accounting software provider Xero lost ground as fears of a potential AI bubble created a drag on global tech stocks in early December. |
| SK | Semiconductor giants, including Korea's SK Hynix, posted record-high profits during the quarter driven by accelerating AI adoption. |
| TSM | Semiconductor giants, including Taiwan's TSMC, posted record-high profits during the quarter driven by accelerating AI adoption. |
| BABA | Chinese consumer technology companies Alibaba were the largest detractors of the MSCI EM Index amid Chinese stocks falling 7% on weak economic data and a slowdown in U.S. exports. |
| TCEHY | Chinese consumer technology companies Tencent were the largest detractors of the MSCI EM Index amid Chinese stocks falling 7% on weak economic data and a slowdown in U.S. exports. |
| XIAOF | Chinese consumer technology companies Xiaomi were the largest detractors of the MSCI EM Index amid Chinese stocks falling 7% on weak economic data and a slowdown in U.S. exports. |
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