Former Wall Street Bull Now Expects Stocks To Fall 15-20% This Year | Mark Newton, Fundstrat
Summary
Market Outlook: The guest expects a choppy year with a potential 15–20% drawdown beginning late February/March, followed by a summer rally and a sharper Q3 correction.
Tech Weakness: Information Technology, especially mega-cap leaders, shows waning momentum; cycles for leading names imply late-summer/early-fall vulnerability.
Sector Rotation: Overweights shift toward Energy and parts of cyclicals, with Consumer Staples showing relative strength versus Tech early in the year.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver have gone parabolic; while long-term trends remain intact, near-term risk/reward is poor and tight risk management is urged.
Energy/Oil: Crude is nearing a cycle bottom with an expected pullback toward mid-60s before a stronger advance into summer; energy equities (e.g., XLE/OIH areas) seen outperforming in 2024.
Emerging Markets: EM breadth is improving with breakouts in global indices, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, suggesting attractive international opportunities.
Rates and Bonds: A tactical H1 rally in U.S. Treasuries is expected as yields pull back, offering a better near-term risk/reward versus adding to metals now.
FX and Japan: The guest anticipates pronounced dollar weakness and yen softness this year; despite potential corrections, Japan is attractive for multi-year ownership.
Transcript
There are a couple different negatives I guess heading into this year. Uh one is that cycles that I look at tend to turn down uh right at the latter part of February and should be lower into about October, but it won't be a straight shot. So, I'm actually expecting uh potentially a 15 to 20% decline. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Balfful Money founder and your host Adam Tagert. Welcoming you here for a special interview with Mark Newton, the head of technical strategy at Funstrat, where he works there with his partner Tom Lee. Um, first off, Mark, thank you so much for joining us here. I know you're in the middle of Snowageddon uh back there on the East Coast. Uh, and you have a lot going on here. So, thank you for making the time to do this. >> Yeah, my pleasure, Adam. Uh, great to be back with you. >> All right. And, um, folks, you can tell I am on the road. Um, I'm at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and Mark, you can be pretty sure I'm going to ask you about gold and silver and commodities uh at some point in this conversation because that's the topic duour here at this conference normally, but given >> the just amazing price action we see going on in the precious metals right now. Love to get your thoughts on kind of what the you think the drivers of that may be and how many you know what kind of legs you think this uh this rally still has going forward because it's been going on for a while. Um, real quickly though, let's start more at at the macro level. And Mark, you've been on this program before. And if memory serves, when I interviewed you, I want to say maybe in like late October or early November, >> you were, I think you described yourself there still as sort of, you know, cautiously bullish, uh, given what your models were telling you at the time. And I remember you saying that you had some concerns heading into 2026 that uh might cause you to to be less bullish going forward, but of course you said, "Look, I got to wait until we actually get there to see what my uh my models are telling me." Um, where are you right now as we've now, you know, what we're three and a half weeks into the new year? So, I think we're setting up for much more of a choppy year than we've seen in years past. And we've had now three straight years of over 15% gains, over 20 for the first two, and now last year being up 17%. Um, heading into a midterm election year, normally that does tend to be the weakest of the four years that make up the presidential cycle. um you know when I spoken to you last we were seeing a lot of bread deterioration in many different sectors that that has to some extent been resolved in the last couple months since late November. We've seen a lot of sectors sort of spring to life which is actually a positive. Um the the one there are a couple different negatives I guess heading into this year. uh one is that cycles that I look at tend to turn down uh right at the latter part of February and should be lower into about October, but it won't be a straight shot. So, I'm actually expecting uh potentially a 15 to 20% decline, which starts uh in late February, early March, takes us down into May uh or June. we rally into the summer and then we have a third quarter correction that largely marks the end of uh of this consolidation. So I I I can't say that the secular longer term bull market is over. I I do think it's sort of the pause that refreshes so to speak but but I do sense that that is coming this year and a few different reasons. One is because just the cycles are starting to to suggest that that can happen. The second is that we're seeing uh sentiment finally start to get a little bit more optimistic uh on an immediate term basis and that's that has less to do with really the short-term geopolitical risk or sort of what's happening in the US with a lot of the uh you know the protests with regarding immigration and this and that. It's more just about the attitudes towards the market have have gotten a lot more optimistic and that's something I was waiting to see. It really was never present last year. We went from rampant pessimism back in April to a little bit less bullish or less bearish throughout the year, but not really ever speculative and and really optimistic. And we're starting to get to levels that are are are near that level. We're not there yet, but on a rally to 7200, which I expect into late February, I think we'll get there. Uh the other reason is that technology certainly has been sort of a shell of its former self. We're seeing, you know, large cap technology, the MAG 7, many of these stocks have gone sideways for about 6 months. Uh noticeable slowdown in momentum. Certainly sort of a changing of the guard. When you see st, you know, sectors like consumer staples are beating technology over the first few months, first few weeks of the year by about 300 basis points, uh it makes you it makes you pay attention that we're definitely seeing some sector rotation uh that it's important to pay attention to. And this is more than just mean reversion I think where the worst sectors of the prior year tend to outperform and vice versa. Uh that can happen as you enter a new year. But I think that tech has just gotten very overbought and and uh I I think that this is going to be the year where we do see some weakness in technology. So the good news is that I don't think it's going to be an earningsled decline. I think it's going to be uh you know largely just concentrated and and large cap technology. maybe as interest rates start to push higher in the long end. But we have seen some great broadening out in many different sectors that have not worked in quite a while. And that's I think the the bigger picture good news for long-term investors is that weakness this year should be viable, but I sense it's going to be a lot trickier than people expect. And that's for bulls and bears alike. >> Okay. Um, great setup here. Um, let me ask you this. So, you don't expect it to be a general earningsled decline. Um, and sorry folks if you can hear that uh noise outside. There's a uh there's a like a seplane landing uh runway right near where I'm staying here in the hotel. So, you might hear that a little bit more while we're talking. Um but uh so you don't expect this to be kind of a broad-based earning less earningsled decline. Does that mean that um yes the the big tech you expect not to perform well and because it's such a big part of the indices it can pull down the S&P it can pull down the NASDAQ but if you are a maybe more nimble active trader and you are you know rotating into other sectors you may actually be able to engineer a pretty good year for yourself just as long as you're not in the parts of the market like tech that are getting dragged down. I certainly sense that investors can outperform the the the benchmarks. Uh because if Nvidia and Apple account for, you know, 15% of the S&P and they're starting to go lower, um you know, this is going to be a great year, not a great year. I think the portfolio managers will finally be able to probably show some outperformance over the benchmarks. uh in recent years that's been very difficult as Nvidia has garnered more and more percentage of the S&P and Apple and they've been pushing higher and and portfolio managers that don't own these stocks have had a real difficulty keeping up and and showing outperformance and and this will be a a year where I think if you own sectors like energy uh materials uh you know you can certain even parts of industrials and transportation are doing very very well so I think you know there's an interesting bifurcation where you know historically we've seen great outperformance from the AI generators uh and I think to some extent this is going to push into more the AI beneficiaries that probably do a little bit better this year whereas the uh you know the large cap tech stocks just uh need need to need to pull back a little bit. Mhm. When you say AI beneficiaries, do you mean other subsets of the AI market that are uh now stepping to the forefront? Um or do you mean kind of general corporate America just finally benefiting from AI? >> Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we heard uh reports over in Davos that many governments are now starting to take an interest in AI across the globe. And I think uh you know, many different areas of the of the of the market probably can start to benefit from that. and and uh in the last couple years we've seen mostly those companies that have developed and started AI show the biggest gains and now that's starting to show evidence of spreading. So, um I don't have the perfect words to describe it. I just think the market's getting a little bit more broad-based and and I think that in general is a good sign. But uh you know a few more a few a few warning signs on the on the horizon that I see that uh once we see evidence of of technical trends starting to break down and we haven't seen that yet. Uh that would be a sign to probably adopt a little bit more of a defensive u stance I think between >> you know the traditionally bearish time which is really May through October and I think that probably starts earlier this year probably in March or late February. So, um I'm going to make an analogy here and it might be a bad one. So, please feel free to to correct me, but um made it in the past here where so imagine you have a basketball team made up of, you know, five 90 pound weaklings and LeBron James, right? That team still may able to win a lot of basketball games because of how dominant LeBron is. Um but it's not a very healthy bench, if you will, or a healthy team. Um, so we may be entering the period where maybe LeBron is stumbling a bit, you know, maybe he's got an ankle injury or something, but we start replacing these these weaklings with some better players. That's probably better off for the overall team's health, but the team may actually have a a worse season this year as you know, LeBron is coming down and it's making the changes on the bench. Um, do you sort of see it like that where in other words like this broadening might be good long-term for the market, but we may have an underperformance year because the star player is stumbling a little bit. >> I think that's exactly right, Adam. I think when you look across the globe and you see many different stock indices at new all-time highs uh across Europe uh certainly what's happening in Japan there's extraordinary uh you know evidence of emerging markets peing peaking uh starting to to break out and you see the EM the emerging markets ETF has broken out to the largest level in you know over a decade. I think that's very constructive at a time when the dollar has started to turn down. Um, you know, meanwhile, we have the Dow Jones transportation average also that has recently broke out along with the small cap IWM. Uh, certainly not a time when normally, you know, you would say, wow, it's time to really sell stocks. And I I think it still is from a short-term timing perspective, I think it is still quite premature by probably about a month. But I don't uh I think you really have to watch carefully the degree to which technology plays comeback after earnings, which kick off this week. And I think if you have a sort of a slow lackluster bounce between now and 7200, then that would raise a few alarm bells because I I also suspect that more and more people would would get on board the rally. So, it's more about sentiment and cycles and just keeping a really close eye on on breath and I think those are are key. But but for me, of course, as a longer term trend following technician, trends matter more than anything. And and uh attempts to try to sell markets when they're in uptrends uh generally does not work out. People rarely can pick the the the top and the bottom as easily as as you might expect. And so easier to pick bottoms during time of fear than tops during times of complacency. But uh you know, we shall see what happens. I I suspect that uh if some of the cycles that I look at are accurate then then you know March should be an interesting time for the market. >> Okay. Um so first off we're going to talk about the difficulty of picking tops uh when we talk about gold and silver right now. Um because >> uh they're just vertical at this point in time. Uh so vertical don't last forever. And so there's a you know big big debate going on saying when when is it time to start selling. Um but first off, let me both um uh thank you and uh and and uh curse you if you will. Um so uh you you you brought up something I bring up a lot which is just statistically right the markets had three near 20% years as you said earlier right uh back to back to back which is rare for the markets. So to expect a fourth year of similar outperformance just forget about fundamentals, technicals, etc. Just statistically it's very very rare. Right? So I'm glad that you brought that up which is to say hey look you know we just need to expect that there's going to be some change at some point in time. Now the reason why I'm cursing you is because you know I get as you know I I I don't screen people for their their point of view. uh I just want I just bring on people who are intelligent and have a datadriven um explanation for why they they develop the market macro outlooks they have. That said, I would say the majority of people that I I've interviewed over the past year have been, you know, somewhat more pessimistic than optimistic. And so I get kind of painted with this brush that says, "Adam, you only bring on bears, right?" So I was hoping with you coming on, Mark, especially with your partner there at Funstrather. Okay. Well, we're going to have a guy who's probably going to deliver somewhat of a bullet bullish case. Now, Mark, I know that you more than anything. Just follow the technicals. So, you're going to tell me what your technicals are saying. But, yeah, people are going to say, "All right, Adam, one more bear in in the mix here." Uh, but you're just calling it as you see it. >> So, so to be clear, you know, Tom Lee and I have, of course, a different methodology and also a different time frame for how we look at things. Uh I write a daily market report and do daily videos of uh the market which covers all different asset classes and I tend to be a little bit more tactical and shorter term than Tom. So when he has an intermediate term bullish case on AI going on for years uh I I respect that for a lot of the right reasons. U even Tom has joined me in being a little bit more cautious for the first half of this year. Mhm. >> Um and and so you know it's less about you know it all depends on your time frame and and and right now look the very short term is still bullish and the intermediate term meaning probably if you were to go out 5 years I think will probably still be okay but it's more about the time for for between now and October which I think is going to be very choppy and and might give a little bit of a surprise to the downside which some would argue is much needed. to your earlier point. I mean, there have been several times in history when we've had, you know, multiple years of of of rising prices, and that doesn't mean you just rush in and sell because we've been up three years in a row. You have to always look for the warning signs and and for me, it's always about breath deterioration uh andor leading sectors like tech that are starting to roll over cycles and and really sentiment. And you know, a few of those things are now in place this year, which makes me think it's going to be a more challenging year for investors. uh but also something where if you were to look to buy dips into the fall, I think it's going to be quite rewarding actually between late 2026 and 2028. >> Okay. So, um if I took good notes, uh you said, "Hey, this is going to be a choppy year, meaning it's going to be more volatile than folks maybe have gotten accustomed to over the past couple years." Um and uh as you said, you know, in the immediate term, like next month or so, you're wouldn't be surprised to see an all-time high on the S&P, right? Um so, you know, you're not you're not predicting, you know, total calamity. Uh and uh then you said there'll be some sort of correction. I don't know if I picked up sort of what what magnitude you're talking about. I didn't get a sense that it's it's super dramatic. then a rally maybe midy year and then maybe a a more uh pronounced slowing down at the end of the year and I think you said something like wouldn't surprise you to see the market down 15 20% by the time the year ends. Did I did I catch it all right? >> I think that's right. If I could possibly share my screen, I will sort of share with you my uh >> you know really what I expect from this year and that I think we probably have the potential to get between 5600 and 5,900 sometime in October from levels that are probably right around 7200 on the upside. So, ideally, this would work in sort of a three-wave type fashion where you initially have the strong selloff into late spring, early summer. You rally into the summer, and then you you pull back pretty sharply in in Q3. >> Okay. And sorry, I'm I'm I'm just looking closely here at the chart. Um, and I know this is this is um meant to be sort of instructive and not exact numbers, but you're looking at a correction of about a thousand points of the S&P pre-summer. Correct. >> That's right. Yeah. So, I mean, not catastrophic, but that would sting. >> I I think it I don't think that that it probably will not happen before the summer, but I think it will certainly show signs of having started before the summer. I think it the majority of the worst part of it might come between uh August and and October and I think that's something to and that that's due to the cycles that I'm looking at for Apple and Nvidia and both of those have a pretty rough uh late summer early fall. Uh but when you look at the s the the actual cycle uh you know this is one that I've used for years uh and it it had been pretty accurate in recent years and it did show you know the potential for you know a rally into probably February March a dip and then the period from late 2026 into 2028. Uh that's one cycle. The other is just based on the 41-month cycle of uh that was created by Edward Dwey that measures, you know, it's it's one of the best longer term cycles for the stock market that I know. It's about 180 weeks or about three and a half years in general. And it pinpointed the peaks in 2000 2007, the bottoms in09. It was very accurate throughout the mid70s. And so it does show that this is a year of weakness for the market. These pink lines represent amplitude, not magnitude. It doesn't mean we have to go all the way back down to the lows, but it is uh something that I think is important. And so, um, you know, my sector-wise, you know, I I've dropped my technology from an overweight down to a neutral. And my overweights for this year are industrials, energy, financials, and utilities. And, you know, meanwhile, I I think a lot of the sectors are probably going to be pretty pretty neutral. Um these are the concerns that I had heading into this year from last year and some of these were partially reversed that momentum and breadth have been waning since July. So those have improved. Uh the broader market number two has actually started to uh show good strength. And so when you say all-time highs, you know, the Dow's already at all-time highs, the equated S&P is and the Russell and most of Europe and the transports and there's a lot of really good things happening, but it's also being noticed by by many people. And so, you know, much of this is going to do with cycles and sentiment, I think, as to why uh you know, the the market starts to turn down. >> Sure. So, Mark, you you Thank you. charts are very helpful and the chart you showed of um uh you know your current outlook for the different segments um very useful. I'm curious given a a year that you expect to be volatile and you know could end in a up to 20% correction. Um is is your sort of approach um okay so write out that year in these sectors that are likely to perform better. Um, I mean, I'm guessing yes, that's a big part of it. But also, is there any d-risking in there, right? Like, hey, you might want to take, you know, your portfolio down from 100% long to 80% long and then put it in these, you know, better sectors. >> Yeah, look, those are great questions. They they really all have to do with one's own risk tolerance and and time horizon for the market. And if you have a time horizon that goes out till 2028, then you might decide to ride it out and just hedge using puts or VIX calls or or you know maybe taking some technology off the table. Uh emphasizing a lot more of the safety type sectors like consumer staples that are starting to show more strength. Um, >> you know, I I do look at the market every day and when I start to see trends break, then I I will suggest that it's probably a good time to uh to raise some cash to to potentially put some money into to treasuries, I think between probably February and July, we we do get some rally in in the treasury market where we see yields start to pull back again. And uh so I I think that there are some opportunities and to your point on the metals we can speak about that in a minute but that has been of course just a phenomenal area. commodities have started to come back uh with a vengeance and I think that is very uh interesting during a time of the year when inflation largely has been you know showing evidence of of weakening and so it's interesting that commodities can rally if inflation is not really going anywhere right so so the parts of commodities that are doing well I tend to think that uh it is right to be very much diversified the the problem and you know error that investors made in recent years is really being too overweight technology just because of >> you have some QQQ or some spy and you want to own Apple and before long you look at your portfolio and it's about 80% technology and most people have been a little frustrated in recent months to say >> and sorry to interrupt but you may own other you know ETFs funds that aren't marketed as tech funds that still have a ton of tech in them. Yeah, 100%. And I think that's the real key is to know what you own. And so diversifying into areas that have some Coca-Cola or McDonald's or, you know, areas that uh have exposure to emerging markets or have more a heavier exposure to commodities or have exposure to uh emerging markets. I think makes a world of uh of sense in in this year where the dollar to me looks like it's uh set to pull back to new lows under last year's lows which likely happens uh between now and the summer. So we if what I'm thinking is right uh we're going to see a massive US dollar devaluation uh which should be has already gotten underway in my view and I've written about that in recent notes. >> Okay. Well, then that's a great segue into the metals and commodity part of this discussion. So, I I I don't remember if your slide there of the different sectors had commodities on it, but it sounds like you feel pretty bullish about commodities for this year. Well, look, I I I I I basically sympathize with your point about most of the metals being in very late stages of of their rallies, but but you do have a movement in silver for anybody that's a that's a technician or takes a time to pull up long-term charts. I mean, this is, you know, has been one of the more bullish longer term base breakouts that we've seen in in a long, long time. I mean these peaks in silver last occurred near the Hunt brothers squeeze and the movement just you know in the last 24 hours is being reminiscent silver is up 11% today right so so we have not only >> and that's that's after what you know almost quadrupling last year >> yeah well that's the thing you put this into perspective and you see that it made peaks back in 7980 and then peaks back you know in 2011 and now that level has been exceeded and technically that that can allow for a real acceleration. So I wrote this back in November, December heading into the year and I my target for silver was 100 and now we're we're clearly above that. Um the cycles are in the latter part of their their uh you know they're getting very stretched and I think that you know for me I thought gold probably would get to you know 5,000 and then pull back and and we're already above 5,000. So yeah, you know, my thinking is >> to interrupt, but we we we finally really cracked 5,000 last night, which was Sunday night in the futures market. It's now already 5100. Like silver, it's just not looking back. >> So I guess the issue that I have with the metals is twofold. And one is that, you know, if you own physical silver, I mean, it's very difficult to unload it. You know, dealers are not taking it at current prices. There's there's some really interesting dynamics going on where it's just gotten really really high and and uh you know sentiment is everybody around the world is now noticing that precious metals are moving and and they haven't noticed that for two three years. You and I talked about it in what September I think and and or even prior to that back in the spring and and that both of us were you know very bullish on the metals and it was right to be long and and now I it's a very poor riskreward in my view at current levels but technically I'm not able to sell it just yet. Um >> you know started to show signs of breaking down. >> It's not. No, of course not. it it it needs to before you really turn negative, but it's one of those things where the party's getting late and you don't want to be the last one at the punch bowl. And so, is it right to stay at the party? Well, that depends on your your riskreward. I I I do sense that uh we have another week or two. I I I am looking for a rally into early February and then a pretty good correction. Uh, however, you really need to do a lot of damage to think that that these that they anything that's moving parabolically when you see your first selloff, that doesn't mean the peaks in and it's time to just short. And, >> you know, it it takes usually a number of different attempts at hitting highs before you roll over. So, I do sense that we're probably a few weeks away from that. In February is probably the month when that happens and starts to sell off. Uh I think that will provide opportunities on a on a you know 10 15 20% pullback for those that are traders. For those that are longerterm investors uh I just sense that you're very late to the game and uh unfortunately it's been a nice three-year run and now it's going parabolic and and usually that means it's a time to consider keeping your stops very tight. You never want to give back gains when something that's parabolic starts to turn because sometimes it can really erase a lot of those profits and just very important to keep uh you know keep a ruler out handy for those that are not technicians and follow trends and certainly obey them when they start to be broken. >> Yeah. So Mark, I'm at a conference right now where it's really interesting. Um it it's kind of like, you know, finally their year, right? I mean, I've been to this conference before. There there's at least two times the number of people here versus the last time I was here. >> Yeah. >> And it's funny because the the you know old veterans the guys have been in this industry for 40 50 years are saying hey you know like we've kind of seen this movie before. um this is in their opinion, you know, it's gone into bubble territory and and by the way, these guys are, you know, big precious metals champions have been have a lot of exposure, but they're basically saying, look, when when you when you get to the mania stage like this and the price action goes vertical, these almost never resolve by going sideways, you know, they resolve in in pretty brutal, you know, price corrections, >> right? And they're they're sort of saying like look if you're I if you're feeling elated by the gains that you've gotten in this medal like congratulations you you you kind of won the bet you made but don't be an idiot and you know be naked along here as we're getting to the the end blowoff stage uh and put yourself at risk of of having your great gains vaporize if this follows the similar price action of of other big mania spikes we've seen like this in the market. Now then you have a younger crew of guys here, you know, who are like, you guys don't get it. It's different this time, right? You of course the most dangerous words in investing, but you know, it's a global monetary reset that's going on. The the the debt is now out of control. We've just passed the point where the US debt service is greater than the the defense budget. And you know, it's just it's a different world. And you'd be an idiot to jump off this uh you know, out of this trade right now because it's got several legs ahead of it here. So, where I'm going with this, feel free to comment any of that. Where I'm going with this is you mentioned stops like for for the the average investor who maybe got in a year ago and is like, "Oh my god, my gold is, you know, more than doubled and my silver has quadrupled here." Um m maybe I should start protecting this in some shape or form. I don't want to exit the trade entirely. Do you have any any particular preferred way to sort of play this knowing this isn't personal finance uh financial advice for any individual watching this? You know, is it more stops? Is it more just selling out and going to cash? Is it more using puts? You know, some some options, right? What would you think? >> Yeah, there's a lot there's a lot to unpack there. I I would simply say that it's always uh always better to have a basic understanding of technical analysis and how charts can help you to manage risk versus listening to those who, you know, are already dug in either bullish or bearish and might have their own ideas as to why they're working. And and I can come up with a dozen reasons why, you know, this should be a great year for precious metals. Uh I I just don't know that we have much gains probably after the first half of this year. >> Uh I think interest rates are due to make a sort of a six-year bottom. At least the treasuries are are likely going to have a cycle that shows a peak in treasuries probably by the middle part of this year that is overdue which means that rates very well could go higher over the next couple years. uh historically that's not been great for precious metals and you really want to watch as real yields start to creep up and so I just worry that uh you know I I I think that you never want to get too enthusiastic about your reasoning where you're avoiding watching actual price action itself and and right now it's as people that are bullish see prices rise they become more and more emboldened that wow this is the right call and they completely have the blinders on as to why, you know, when to get out and if it's silver's up 20 30% in about a week. I mean, you sort of need to understand where you're going to exit and take profits, not just sit there. Um the second point you know and all this is always about respecting one's own methodology and again that's that's so much of this conversation is just different people have different uh time frames and for for gold for example even just since last August we've been from what 3200 to 5,000 very quickly uh any sort of minor pullback until it breaks the larger trend is probably still going to be okay to own. It's really when you start to break trends. And uh even if you can't keep track of that, I would say watch when silver or gold start to make a new multi-week low. In other words, we're going up and up and up. Well, when does that stall and start to roll over? If you want to be short-term, wait for it to make a new say 3-day low. At a minimum, that will be very helpful. And I mean three-day low on a closing basis. So, right now, we're going straight up. I I never advocate people sell usually into strength, but when we start to roll over, that's a time when, you know, the buying has dried up and the sellers take over and things can get very volatile on the downside. So, for very short-term traders, watch for a three-day low. For intermediate term traders, use trend lines and or watch for a new 3-week low. And normally that can help you to, you know, keep a lot more of your profits than trying to understand where we are in the cycle and saying, "Well, I'm just going to ignore the weakness because these are this is the new age and and yeah, I I do sense that, you know, the Fed obviously is in a challenging spot this year and and is going to be under a lot of pressure from the administration and and there's no easy answer as to who is going to be uh the the new chairman." And obviously it it probably is going to be somebody that's at least as doubbish and probably is going to be more dovish than than Powell. And so that's probably going to be good news. That means that rates probably will come down another two times this year. Normally as rates come down, that's good for the metals. But uh that the debt is a bigger issue if tariffs were to be reversed by the Supreme Court. And we know that you know not taking any political stance at all but but certainly companies have felt uh you know a certain sense of uh uh uncertainty to say the least when they don't know what their cash flows are going to be or where they're investing or what tariffs what what effect they could have. It's been a the tariffs have been a negative for most country of companies, but they've actually been a quite a bit of a positive for when you look at the trade balance and we've seen that have been cut in half down to 29 billion as of last month. That's really an impressive reversal and about face which means that the tariffs have been working quite well. So if this were going to be rolled back, how does that work in terms of compensating the company the the countries that we've paid that have paid us this money? And furthermore, we're not going to be addressing the spending anytime soon. And that's just going to lead to to more and more, you know, payments that we're making where our interest payments are greater than we're spending on defense. And that's going to be a eventually that's going to be a problem that is going to come to the forefront. That's going to be an issue. So, uh, my biggest thing is watch sentiment for the metals and try to find as many different sources of sentiment as you can. The CFTC positioning or just talk to people around you. everybody all of a sudden is starting to talk about metals. That's one sign that obviously is very unusual and and it's come out of nowhere. Uh but you want to see it actually in the price action. You want to see prices reverse and that's the biggest thing. It doesn't matter what sentiment is. If if prices continue to go up, then it's fine to be long. I just view it as a sort of a poor intermediate term riskreward given the parabolic state. And and I personally am looking for exits. Last time we spoke, I said that silver and gold were one of my biggest longs for 2025. And then I told you in the last conference call, I think we're going to peak out in October. Well, we did peak out. I I, you know, got rid of a lot of my gold and silver. We had a pretty sharp correction, but now it's right back up and even stronger. And I violated one of my own rules is that the intermediate term trends were weren't broken at all on the metals. It was a short, you know, sharp 15 20% correction. Uh so it suited a lot of people that wanted to find a peak and short or get out or but yeah for the for the longer term investor you need to see evidence of these longer term trends being broken before you really address uh whether it's right to be in or out. >> Okay. Um let me ask you a more fundamental and not technical question here on precious metals. So, one of the things that's been talked a fair amount here at this talked about a fair amount here at this conference is um and this is sort of a a segue uh to your point about bonds um is you're starting to see more like Wall Street firms say, you know what, we had this 40 plus year bond bull market. We might be in a different uh regime going forward with bonds. And so you may want to look at the traditional 6040 allocation and you know look at that 40% that used to be in bonds and maybe take you know some chunk of that and put that into gold instead of bonds. Um and uh you know number of people here saying that's the next big wave that's going to carry this gold bull market higher as that capital because you know the gold market is pretty tiny compared to the bond market. So, it wouldn't take too many percentage points of of of bond capital to flow in here to to still give a lot more octane to what's going on here. Just given your proximity to what Wall Street is doing, you know, is is that is that a potential macro trend factor that you're paying any attention to? >> If one is not invested in gold already on an intermediate term basis, I would not suggest that that's the right move to make. At least for me, I I don't think that it's an attractive riskreward for the year for metals. I I but I think that right now prices are going up. You know, it's fashionable short term, but uh treasuries are going to be a better riskreward I think for the next 6 months and thereafter. I I if gold let's say rates start to let's say yields get down to 385 on the 10-year and all of a sudden uh you know precious metals have corrected 20 to 25%. Well, maybe I would consider it then. Uh I certainly do think that this year more than ever is a good year for diversification, but I I can't simply say that uh gold is probably the better area. In general, commodities would make more sense as a bucket because I think crude is likely going to be ending its three-year bare market sometime uh in the next month. And I do sense that prices go pretty sharply lower from here. But I also think that energy uh is going to outperform this year. I sense that crude is going to have a pretty good lift between probably March and July. >> All right, I'm glad you mentioned that. Um, I've been increasingly talking about the prospects of the oil and gas uh industry with a lot of the experts on this channel. In fact, the video right before this one, Mark, was with Rick Rule. I don't know if you you know who he is, but he's a he's a very well-known natural resources investor and and basically said, "Look, I think the oil and gas sector is as attractive as I've seen it in my career." Now, he's not talking about a, you know, quarterly outlook. He's talking about at some point over the next, you know, one to three years. He thinks that thing might swing back into to boom because it's been in bust for for a good while and and >> you can get in as at attracted prices now and get paid to wait because a lot of these companies pay pretty generous dividends. So, it sounds like you're seeing corroborative uh data, you know, using your very uh technical-driven methodology here. I do. Some of the cycles that I look at for crude oil do tend to bottom uh really in the next couple months and start to turn higher. I I think that this recent little bounce is more Iran related and and probably a little bit of a head fake. I do sense that crude probably gets to 65, but then it should have a pretty big pullback which might start in maybe midFebruary and uh start to go lower and that should be really the final wash out for for crude oil in my view and then at that thereafter uh I would agree with that. I think that anything with the with regards to Venezuela, you know, we need to get prices materially higher to make that attractive at all to even consider uh if the US were to attempt to uh go in and and extract oil, get Venezuela up to let's say two or three million barrels a day again uh from under a million now, right? So I think that that's uh is that is that correct? I'm thinking of uh uh yeah in general I think their their total output has just been reduced substantially and it would be so costly. I think the you know the CEO of Exxon said it right that it's really unattractive at this point. So for AI also, we know that there's going to be a need for fossil fuels. And so I think that Saudi Arabia and the US, you know, have probably cut a deal a few months ago to keep prices low, but I I don't sense that's going to last forever. And I sense that that probably in the next quarter that we probably start to bottom and start to move up. Well, what what what I always like given my position of being able to talk to lots of different people is I like when I hear different analysts using different methodologies come to similar conclusions, right? That that that's a pattern that when I see it usually says there's probably something there there, right? Because, you know, people have different lenses, they're using different approaches, >> uh yet they're they're, >> you know, process brings them to this the same uh point of view. Now Rick is very much, you know, he he's very much a u he's not a technical guy like you are. Um he's much more macro. Um but he's very close to the production side of things. I mean he knows all the people that own the wells or own the mines or whatever. And you know a big part of his um his outlook is one that global demand is going to keep growing for a whole bunch of reasons. But >> y the you know in the commodity industry in oil in particular the cure for low prices is low prices, right? prices get low enough for long enough, people just stop exploring and developing because it's not profitable to do so. And then supply gets tight as a result of that and that shoots prices up and then the boom cycle starts. >> Yeah. And so I just look at it more about cycles and trends and and you know short-term trends certainly have turned a little bit more bullish for crude. But uh I sense that near-term we might push into the mid60s and then we're going to have a pretty big sell-off for reasons that I probably don't understand the fundamental reasons for but I think that that will provide a pretty good buying opportunity uh for crude. So >> okay well it looks like crude has broken out from at least the trend line you have drawn here. um if it gets up to the mid-60s and then has a correction, would you expect it to go back down to that trend line or is the trend line now changing because >> Yeah. No, I think it probably does. I mean, it's funny because I look at a combination of aot wave and cycles and most of the stuff for crude uh does show just over the last couple decades that we're due to start a pretty big move up and this lasts into the summer, but we'll see if that lasts or not. uh energy itself many different parts of energy have been working very well and OIH uh XLE uh of course exploration and production have been a big lagard I think there's probably a little bit of a a bounce here but then that's going to be a little bit weaker so it'll be yeah it's an interesting sector for sure but but different parts of commodities are starting to perk up and and that's uh definitely interesting to me >> all right well Mark if your schedule allows love to have you back on in Q2 and you call an audible for us on what you see going on. But if it turns out that a lot of the things you've talked about here are kind of come to pass, could be an interesting time for, you know, the the investor, you know, the type that watches this channel to um, you know, maybe start to really take some action on some of these things because it sounds like if we get that draw down in in oil after hitting the mid60s, that could be a good time to really get in before the pop you expect is going to happen. um you know might be a good time uh I guess now you're saying maybe to to you know buy some bonds and uh you know by by midsummer might be time to get out of them if things are bottoming then >> yeah the biggest thing that I'd see is the dollar really having started to accelerate dramatically to the downside this has already broken down to the lowest level almost since last fall and so that one can get long the euro and get long pound sterling the yen is going to take some time that also eventually should uh rally a little bit but what's happening with Taichi. You know, I sense the dollar yen is going to be quite weak uh between, you know, probably the spring and the end of the year. So, any sort of pullback you see in dollar yen, if we get down to 147, 150 should be a chance to really get short the yen for a chance for that to probably get to 175 or even 200. So I sense that you know Japan has been through just a relentless wave of uh you know deflation for so long they're willing to tolerate inflation and to the extent that uh you know the JGBs have been you know showing such volatility that uh Scott Bent you know placed a call over to Japan I think that they're going to try to we'll we'll see what happens but but I sense that we're going to start to see uh rate hikes and and you know at some point we're going to see a I think this year is still going to be very weak for the yen. So, that's interesting. It probably means their stock market, it might correct during the same time as ours does, but it should be a great time to own Japan for the years to come at all-time highs. >> Okay. All right. Well, look, um I I know you got to get off in just a minute here. So, real quick, um you you showed some of the cycles that you look at. I'm just curious, you know, I I interviewed um Michael How recently, not sure if you're familiar with him, but he's um liquidity is his big thing. He's a former Solomon Brothers guy. he's been following these liquidity >> models for decades and decades and um >> you know from from the years I've been interviewing him um his his calls have been pretty good and they're largely based on what's happening with liquidity flow. So, for example, he was, I think, the first guy I know to really go put his neck out and and go long um in October of 2022. And it was largely because, you know, his multi-year global liquidity cycle had had bottomed and was starting up again. And, you know, with a lot of people I interview here, sometimes I do just say, look, is it really at the end of the day just all about liquidity? Because when the tide is rising, you know, all boats kind of go up with it. So he's now his model he thinks the current multi-year cycle peaked out in Q4. Um so we we just started to peak and it's you know uh we probably have a multi-year down cycle against it and and and the cycles are the the duration is variable because it depends on the speed of the decline. Um but uh but he's basically kind of like you saying hey we're going to start having more headwinds this year. It's going to be more volatile year because of liquidity. Do you look at liquidity at all in your uh do you take that into account at all in your soup of data that you look at? >> Yeah. No, I I really is there's so much information to look at. It's not part of my personal toolbox. If I can just look at sector rotation and trends and sentiment and seasonality and cycles, they they tend to provide a lot of the shorter term uh you know avenues that really can help investors stay on the right side of trends. I mean liquidity is a longer term type thing. It it in my view it would probably take a longer time to make heads or tails as to if you take a stance based on liquidity it might not materialize right away but it it certainly for an immediate term would be important. I would think that you know cutting back on QT uh you know could produce the opposite in the short run but but we'll see and if they ratchet rates down another couple times I think that'd be helpful. But we still have an affordability problem of course in the US and >> housing where it is and and mortgages mortgage rates are they've come down to 6% but they're still roughly double what they were a couple years ago. So uh yeah, we'll see how that all shakes out. >> All right. Well, Mark, I I can't thank you enough, especially for squeezing this in everything that's going on in your busy schedule. >> Of course. Yeah, my my pleasure. We're uh we got hit pretty hard with about 15 inches of snow out east, but but everything's going to be just fine. So, uh, bottom line is, uh, stay the, you know, depending on your risk tolerance, stay the course. But, uh, I I expect eventually the S&P >> for the year might get to to 7,300 and 7,200 might be possible over the next month. But, um, after that, I think it's really going to be a choppy time for uh, spring and really Q3 and you want to buy dips into that in October. >> Okay. So, um, you know, again, I'd love to have you on quarterly at least just to kind of provide great a chance to provide audible calls and all that in case other other things are changing. For folks that would really have really appreciated this and would like to follow you and your work between the next time you come on this channel, Mark, where should they go? >> So, I would either suggest going to fundstrat.com fudd or fs insight. Uh, we have a product for both retail and also institutions. uh myself, you can follow me on X on Mark Newton CMT and happy to provide your viewers with uh maybe a link that they can click on or a CR a QR code that that might be uh that can bring you to that. I I'll provide you with that after the interview. >> Great. So Mark, as usual, when I edit this, I'll put up the links to those URLs and to your your ex handle. I'll also put the links in the description below the video, folks. And also down there, Mark, if you send me that that code or that link, special link itself, we'll put it there, too, so folks can can get to all those places with just one click click. Um, Mark, it's always such a pleasure. Folks, please do me a favor. Please let Mark know how much you appreciate him coming on by hitting the like button and then clicking the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. And uh if you want to get some help in in taking some action in your portfolio based on anything that that Mark and I discussed here, if you don't already have a good financial adviser advising you on that, feel free to talk to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money endorses for free. To do that, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com, fill out the short form there. Mark, really hope you get home okay today, strap on those snowshoes, and uh you know, get some hot chocolate. >> Thank you, Adam. Happy New Year to everybody, and uh look forward to talking to you again soon. Take care. >> All right. Thanks so much. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching.
Former Wall Street Bull Now Expects Stocks To Fall 15-20% This Year | Mark Newton, Fundstrat
Summary
Transcript
There are a couple different negatives I guess heading into this year. Uh one is that cycles that I look at tend to turn down uh right at the latter part of February and should be lower into about October, but it won't be a straight shot. So, I'm actually expecting uh potentially a 15 to 20% decline. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. Balfful Money founder and your host Adam Tagert. Welcoming you here for a special interview with Mark Newton, the head of technical strategy at Funstrat, where he works there with his partner Tom Lee. Um, first off, Mark, thank you so much for joining us here. I know you're in the middle of Snowageddon uh back there on the East Coast. Uh, and you have a lot going on here. So, thank you for making the time to do this. >> Yeah, my pleasure, Adam. Uh, great to be back with you. >> All right. And, um, folks, you can tell I am on the road. Um, I'm at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and Mark, you can be pretty sure I'm going to ask you about gold and silver and commodities uh at some point in this conversation because that's the topic duour here at this conference normally, but given >> the just amazing price action we see going on in the precious metals right now. Love to get your thoughts on kind of what the you think the drivers of that may be and how many you know what kind of legs you think this uh this rally still has going forward because it's been going on for a while. Um, real quickly though, let's start more at at the macro level. And Mark, you've been on this program before. And if memory serves, when I interviewed you, I want to say maybe in like late October or early November, >> you were, I think you described yourself there still as sort of, you know, cautiously bullish, uh, given what your models were telling you at the time. And I remember you saying that you had some concerns heading into 2026 that uh might cause you to to be less bullish going forward, but of course you said, "Look, I got to wait until we actually get there to see what my uh my models are telling me." Um, where are you right now as we've now, you know, what we're three and a half weeks into the new year? So, I think we're setting up for much more of a choppy year than we've seen in years past. And we've had now three straight years of over 15% gains, over 20 for the first two, and now last year being up 17%. Um, heading into a midterm election year, normally that does tend to be the weakest of the four years that make up the presidential cycle. um you know when I spoken to you last we were seeing a lot of bread deterioration in many different sectors that that has to some extent been resolved in the last couple months since late November. We've seen a lot of sectors sort of spring to life which is actually a positive. Um the the one there are a couple different negatives I guess heading into this year. uh one is that cycles that I look at tend to turn down uh right at the latter part of February and should be lower into about October, but it won't be a straight shot. So, I'm actually expecting uh potentially a 15 to 20% decline, which starts uh in late February, early March, takes us down into May uh or June. we rally into the summer and then we have a third quarter correction that largely marks the end of uh of this consolidation. So I I I can't say that the secular longer term bull market is over. I I do think it's sort of the pause that refreshes so to speak but but I do sense that that is coming this year and a few different reasons. One is because just the cycles are starting to to suggest that that can happen. The second is that we're seeing uh sentiment finally start to get a little bit more optimistic uh on an immediate term basis and that's that has less to do with really the short-term geopolitical risk or sort of what's happening in the US with a lot of the uh you know the protests with regarding immigration and this and that. It's more just about the attitudes towards the market have have gotten a lot more optimistic and that's something I was waiting to see. It really was never present last year. We went from rampant pessimism back in April to a little bit less bullish or less bearish throughout the year, but not really ever speculative and and really optimistic. And we're starting to get to levels that are are are near that level. We're not there yet, but on a rally to 7200, which I expect into late February, I think we'll get there. Uh the other reason is that technology certainly has been sort of a shell of its former self. We're seeing, you know, large cap technology, the MAG 7, many of these stocks have gone sideways for about 6 months. Uh noticeable slowdown in momentum. Certainly sort of a changing of the guard. When you see st, you know, sectors like consumer staples are beating technology over the first few months, first few weeks of the year by about 300 basis points, uh it makes you it makes you pay attention that we're definitely seeing some sector rotation uh that it's important to pay attention to. And this is more than just mean reversion I think where the worst sectors of the prior year tend to outperform and vice versa. Uh that can happen as you enter a new year. But I think that tech has just gotten very overbought and and uh I I think that this is going to be the year where we do see some weakness in technology. So the good news is that I don't think it's going to be an earningsled decline. I think it's going to be uh you know largely just concentrated and and large cap technology. maybe as interest rates start to push higher in the long end. But we have seen some great broadening out in many different sectors that have not worked in quite a while. And that's I think the the bigger picture good news for long-term investors is that weakness this year should be viable, but I sense it's going to be a lot trickier than people expect. And that's for bulls and bears alike. >> Okay. Um, great setup here. Um, let me ask you this. So, you don't expect it to be a general earningsled decline. Um, and sorry folks if you can hear that uh noise outside. There's a uh there's a like a seplane landing uh runway right near where I'm staying here in the hotel. So, you might hear that a little bit more while we're talking. Um but uh so you don't expect this to be kind of a broad-based earning less earningsled decline. Does that mean that um yes the the big tech you expect not to perform well and because it's such a big part of the indices it can pull down the S&P it can pull down the NASDAQ but if you are a maybe more nimble active trader and you are you know rotating into other sectors you may actually be able to engineer a pretty good year for yourself just as long as you're not in the parts of the market like tech that are getting dragged down. I certainly sense that investors can outperform the the the benchmarks. Uh because if Nvidia and Apple account for, you know, 15% of the S&P and they're starting to go lower, um you know, this is going to be a great year, not a great year. I think the portfolio managers will finally be able to probably show some outperformance over the benchmarks. uh in recent years that's been very difficult as Nvidia has garnered more and more percentage of the S&P and Apple and they've been pushing higher and and portfolio managers that don't own these stocks have had a real difficulty keeping up and and showing outperformance and and this will be a a year where I think if you own sectors like energy uh materials uh you know you can certain even parts of industrials and transportation are doing very very well so I think you know there's an interesting bifurcation where you know historically we've seen great outperformance from the AI generators uh and I think to some extent this is going to push into more the AI beneficiaries that probably do a little bit better this year whereas the uh you know the large cap tech stocks just uh need need to need to pull back a little bit. Mhm. When you say AI beneficiaries, do you mean other subsets of the AI market that are uh now stepping to the forefront? Um or do you mean kind of general corporate America just finally benefiting from AI? >> Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we heard uh reports over in Davos that many governments are now starting to take an interest in AI across the globe. And I think uh you know, many different areas of the of the of the market probably can start to benefit from that. and and uh in the last couple years we've seen mostly those companies that have developed and started AI show the biggest gains and now that's starting to show evidence of spreading. So, um I don't have the perfect words to describe it. I just think the market's getting a little bit more broad-based and and I think that in general is a good sign. But uh you know a few more a few a few warning signs on the on the horizon that I see that uh once we see evidence of of technical trends starting to break down and we haven't seen that yet. Uh that would be a sign to probably adopt a little bit more of a defensive u stance I think between >> you know the traditionally bearish time which is really May through October and I think that probably starts earlier this year probably in March or late February. So, um I'm going to make an analogy here and it might be a bad one. So, please feel free to to correct me, but um made it in the past here where so imagine you have a basketball team made up of, you know, five 90 pound weaklings and LeBron James, right? That team still may able to win a lot of basketball games because of how dominant LeBron is. Um but it's not a very healthy bench, if you will, or a healthy team. Um, so we may be entering the period where maybe LeBron is stumbling a bit, you know, maybe he's got an ankle injury or something, but we start replacing these these weaklings with some better players. That's probably better off for the overall team's health, but the team may actually have a a worse season this year as you know, LeBron is coming down and it's making the changes on the bench. Um, do you sort of see it like that where in other words like this broadening might be good long-term for the market, but we may have an underperformance year because the star player is stumbling a little bit. >> I think that's exactly right, Adam. I think when you look across the globe and you see many different stock indices at new all-time highs uh across Europe uh certainly what's happening in Japan there's extraordinary uh you know evidence of emerging markets peing peaking uh starting to to break out and you see the EM the emerging markets ETF has broken out to the largest level in you know over a decade. I think that's very constructive at a time when the dollar has started to turn down. Um, you know, meanwhile, we have the Dow Jones transportation average also that has recently broke out along with the small cap IWM. Uh, certainly not a time when normally, you know, you would say, wow, it's time to really sell stocks. And I I think it still is from a short-term timing perspective, I think it is still quite premature by probably about a month. But I don't uh I think you really have to watch carefully the degree to which technology plays comeback after earnings, which kick off this week. And I think if you have a sort of a slow lackluster bounce between now and 7200, then that would raise a few alarm bells because I I also suspect that more and more people would would get on board the rally. So, it's more about sentiment and cycles and just keeping a really close eye on on breath and I think those are are key. But but for me, of course, as a longer term trend following technician, trends matter more than anything. And and uh attempts to try to sell markets when they're in uptrends uh generally does not work out. People rarely can pick the the the top and the bottom as easily as as you might expect. And so easier to pick bottoms during time of fear than tops during times of complacency. But uh you know, we shall see what happens. I I suspect that uh if some of the cycles that I look at are accurate then then you know March should be an interesting time for the market. >> Okay. Um so first off we're going to talk about the difficulty of picking tops uh when we talk about gold and silver right now. Um because >> uh they're just vertical at this point in time. Uh so vertical don't last forever. And so there's a you know big big debate going on saying when when is it time to start selling. Um but first off, let me both um uh thank you and uh and and uh curse you if you will. Um so uh you you you brought up something I bring up a lot which is just statistically right the markets had three near 20% years as you said earlier right uh back to back to back which is rare for the markets. So to expect a fourth year of similar outperformance just forget about fundamentals, technicals, etc. Just statistically it's very very rare. Right? So I'm glad that you brought that up which is to say hey look you know we just need to expect that there's going to be some change at some point in time. Now the reason why I'm cursing you is because you know I get as you know I I I don't screen people for their their point of view. uh I just want I just bring on people who are intelligent and have a datadriven um explanation for why they they develop the market macro outlooks they have. That said, I would say the majority of people that I I've interviewed over the past year have been, you know, somewhat more pessimistic than optimistic. And so I get kind of painted with this brush that says, "Adam, you only bring on bears, right?" So I was hoping with you coming on, Mark, especially with your partner there at Funstrather. Okay. Well, we're going to have a guy who's probably going to deliver somewhat of a bullet bullish case. Now, Mark, I know that you more than anything. Just follow the technicals. So, you're going to tell me what your technicals are saying. But, yeah, people are going to say, "All right, Adam, one more bear in in the mix here." Uh, but you're just calling it as you see it. >> So, so to be clear, you know, Tom Lee and I have, of course, a different methodology and also a different time frame for how we look at things. Uh I write a daily market report and do daily videos of uh the market which covers all different asset classes and I tend to be a little bit more tactical and shorter term than Tom. So when he has an intermediate term bullish case on AI going on for years uh I I respect that for a lot of the right reasons. U even Tom has joined me in being a little bit more cautious for the first half of this year. Mhm. >> Um and and so you know it's less about you know it all depends on your time frame and and and right now look the very short term is still bullish and the intermediate term meaning probably if you were to go out 5 years I think will probably still be okay but it's more about the time for for between now and October which I think is going to be very choppy and and might give a little bit of a surprise to the downside which some would argue is much needed. to your earlier point. I mean, there have been several times in history when we've had, you know, multiple years of of of rising prices, and that doesn't mean you just rush in and sell because we've been up three years in a row. You have to always look for the warning signs and and for me, it's always about breath deterioration uh andor leading sectors like tech that are starting to roll over cycles and and really sentiment. And you know, a few of those things are now in place this year, which makes me think it's going to be a more challenging year for investors. uh but also something where if you were to look to buy dips into the fall, I think it's going to be quite rewarding actually between late 2026 and 2028. >> Okay. So, um if I took good notes, uh you said, "Hey, this is going to be a choppy year, meaning it's going to be more volatile than folks maybe have gotten accustomed to over the past couple years." Um and uh as you said, you know, in the immediate term, like next month or so, you're wouldn't be surprised to see an all-time high on the S&P, right? Um so, you know, you're not you're not predicting, you know, total calamity. Uh and uh then you said there'll be some sort of correction. I don't know if I picked up sort of what what magnitude you're talking about. I didn't get a sense that it's it's super dramatic. then a rally maybe midy year and then maybe a a more uh pronounced slowing down at the end of the year and I think you said something like wouldn't surprise you to see the market down 15 20% by the time the year ends. Did I did I catch it all right? >> I think that's right. If I could possibly share my screen, I will sort of share with you my uh >> you know really what I expect from this year and that I think we probably have the potential to get between 5600 and 5,900 sometime in October from levels that are probably right around 7200 on the upside. So, ideally, this would work in sort of a three-wave type fashion where you initially have the strong selloff into late spring, early summer. You rally into the summer, and then you you pull back pretty sharply in in Q3. >> Okay. And sorry, I'm I'm I'm just looking closely here at the chart. Um, and I know this is this is um meant to be sort of instructive and not exact numbers, but you're looking at a correction of about a thousand points of the S&P pre-summer. Correct. >> That's right. Yeah. So, I mean, not catastrophic, but that would sting. >> I I think it I don't think that that it probably will not happen before the summer, but I think it will certainly show signs of having started before the summer. I think it the majority of the worst part of it might come between uh August and and October and I think that's something to and that that's due to the cycles that I'm looking at for Apple and Nvidia and both of those have a pretty rough uh late summer early fall. Uh but when you look at the s the the actual cycle uh you know this is one that I've used for years uh and it it had been pretty accurate in recent years and it did show you know the potential for you know a rally into probably February March a dip and then the period from late 2026 into 2028. Uh that's one cycle. The other is just based on the 41-month cycle of uh that was created by Edward Dwey that measures, you know, it's it's one of the best longer term cycles for the stock market that I know. It's about 180 weeks or about three and a half years in general. And it pinpointed the peaks in 2000 2007, the bottoms in09. It was very accurate throughout the mid70s. And so it does show that this is a year of weakness for the market. These pink lines represent amplitude, not magnitude. It doesn't mean we have to go all the way back down to the lows, but it is uh something that I think is important. And so, um, you know, my sector-wise, you know, I I've dropped my technology from an overweight down to a neutral. And my overweights for this year are industrials, energy, financials, and utilities. And, you know, meanwhile, I I think a lot of the sectors are probably going to be pretty pretty neutral. Um these are the concerns that I had heading into this year from last year and some of these were partially reversed that momentum and breadth have been waning since July. So those have improved. Uh the broader market number two has actually started to uh show good strength. And so when you say all-time highs, you know, the Dow's already at all-time highs, the equated S&P is and the Russell and most of Europe and the transports and there's a lot of really good things happening, but it's also being noticed by by many people. And so, you know, much of this is going to do with cycles and sentiment, I think, as to why uh you know, the the market starts to turn down. >> Sure. So, Mark, you you Thank you. charts are very helpful and the chart you showed of um uh you know your current outlook for the different segments um very useful. I'm curious given a a year that you expect to be volatile and you know could end in a up to 20% correction. Um is is your sort of approach um okay so write out that year in these sectors that are likely to perform better. Um, I mean, I'm guessing yes, that's a big part of it. But also, is there any d-risking in there, right? Like, hey, you might want to take, you know, your portfolio down from 100% long to 80% long and then put it in these, you know, better sectors. >> Yeah, look, those are great questions. They they really all have to do with one's own risk tolerance and and time horizon for the market. And if you have a time horizon that goes out till 2028, then you might decide to ride it out and just hedge using puts or VIX calls or or you know maybe taking some technology off the table. Uh emphasizing a lot more of the safety type sectors like consumer staples that are starting to show more strength. Um, >> you know, I I do look at the market every day and when I start to see trends break, then I I will suggest that it's probably a good time to uh to raise some cash to to potentially put some money into to treasuries, I think between probably February and July, we we do get some rally in in the treasury market where we see yields start to pull back again. And uh so I I think that there are some opportunities and to your point on the metals we can speak about that in a minute but that has been of course just a phenomenal area. commodities have started to come back uh with a vengeance and I think that is very uh interesting during a time of the year when inflation largely has been you know showing evidence of of weakening and so it's interesting that commodities can rally if inflation is not really going anywhere right so so the parts of commodities that are doing well I tend to think that uh it is right to be very much diversified the the problem and you know error that investors made in recent years is really being too overweight technology just because of >> you have some QQQ or some spy and you want to own Apple and before long you look at your portfolio and it's about 80% technology and most people have been a little frustrated in recent months to say >> and sorry to interrupt but you may own other you know ETFs funds that aren't marketed as tech funds that still have a ton of tech in them. Yeah, 100%. And I think that's the real key is to know what you own. And so diversifying into areas that have some Coca-Cola or McDonald's or, you know, areas that uh have exposure to emerging markets or have more a heavier exposure to commodities or have exposure to uh emerging markets. I think makes a world of uh of sense in in this year where the dollar to me looks like it's uh set to pull back to new lows under last year's lows which likely happens uh between now and the summer. So we if what I'm thinking is right uh we're going to see a massive US dollar devaluation uh which should be has already gotten underway in my view and I've written about that in recent notes. >> Okay. Well, then that's a great segue into the metals and commodity part of this discussion. So, I I I don't remember if your slide there of the different sectors had commodities on it, but it sounds like you feel pretty bullish about commodities for this year. Well, look, I I I I I basically sympathize with your point about most of the metals being in very late stages of of their rallies, but but you do have a movement in silver for anybody that's a that's a technician or takes a time to pull up long-term charts. I mean, this is, you know, has been one of the more bullish longer term base breakouts that we've seen in in a long, long time. I mean these peaks in silver last occurred near the Hunt brothers squeeze and the movement just you know in the last 24 hours is being reminiscent silver is up 11% today right so so we have not only >> and that's that's after what you know almost quadrupling last year >> yeah well that's the thing you put this into perspective and you see that it made peaks back in 7980 and then peaks back you know in 2011 and now that level has been exceeded and technically that that can allow for a real acceleration. So I wrote this back in November, December heading into the year and I my target for silver was 100 and now we're we're clearly above that. Um the cycles are in the latter part of their their uh you know they're getting very stretched and I think that you know for me I thought gold probably would get to you know 5,000 and then pull back and and we're already above 5,000. So yeah, you know, my thinking is >> to interrupt, but we we we finally really cracked 5,000 last night, which was Sunday night in the futures market. It's now already 5100. Like silver, it's just not looking back. >> So I guess the issue that I have with the metals is twofold. And one is that, you know, if you own physical silver, I mean, it's very difficult to unload it. You know, dealers are not taking it at current prices. There's there's some really interesting dynamics going on where it's just gotten really really high and and uh you know sentiment is everybody around the world is now noticing that precious metals are moving and and they haven't noticed that for two three years. You and I talked about it in what September I think and and or even prior to that back in the spring and and that both of us were you know very bullish on the metals and it was right to be long and and now I it's a very poor riskreward in my view at current levels but technically I'm not able to sell it just yet. Um >> you know started to show signs of breaking down. >> It's not. No, of course not. it it it needs to before you really turn negative, but it's one of those things where the party's getting late and you don't want to be the last one at the punch bowl. And so, is it right to stay at the party? Well, that depends on your your riskreward. I I I do sense that uh we have another week or two. I I I am looking for a rally into early February and then a pretty good correction. Uh, however, you really need to do a lot of damage to think that that these that they anything that's moving parabolically when you see your first selloff, that doesn't mean the peaks in and it's time to just short. And, >> you know, it it takes usually a number of different attempts at hitting highs before you roll over. So, I do sense that we're probably a few weeks away from that. In February is probably the month when that happens and starts to sell off. Uh I think that will provide opportunities on a on a you know 10 15 20% pullback for those that are traders. For those that are longerterm investors uh I just sense that you're very late to the game and uh unfortunately it's been a nice three-year run and now it's going parabolic and and usually that means it's a time to consider keeping your stops very tight. You never want to give back gains when something that's parabolic starts to turn because sometimes it can really erase a lot of those profits and just very important to keep uh you know keep a ruler out handy for those that are not technicians and follow trends and certainly obey them when they start to be broken. >> Yeah. So Mark, I'm at a conference right now where it's really interesting. Um it it's kind of like, you know, finally their year, right? I mean, I've been to this conference before. There there's at least two times the number of people here versus the last time I was here. >> Yeah. >> And it's funny because the the you know old veterans the guys have been in this industry for 40 50 years are saying hey you know like we've kind of seen this movie before. um this is in their opinion, you know, it's gone into bubble territory and and by the way, these guys are, you know, big precious metals champions have been have a lot of exposure, but they're basically saying, look, when when you when you get to the mania stage like this and the price action goes vertical, these almost never resolve by going sideways, you know, they resolve in in pretty brutal, you know, price corrections, >> right? And they're they're sort of saying like look if you're I if you're feeling elated by the gains that you've gotten in this medal like congratulations you you you kind of won the bet you made but don't be an idiot and you know be naked along here as we're getting to the the end blowoff stage uh and put yourself at risk of of having your great gains vaporize if this follows the similar price action of of other big mania spikes we've seen like this in the market. Now then you have a younger crew of guys here, you know, who are like, you guys don't get it. It's different this time, right? You of course the most dangerous words in investing, but you know, it's a global monetary reset that's going on. The the the debt is now out of control. We've just passed the point where the US debt service is greater than the the defense budget. And you know, it's just it's a different world. And you'd be an idiot to jump off this uh you know, out of this trade right now because it's got several legs ahead of it here. So, where I'm going with this, feel free to comment any of that. Where I'm going with this is you mentioned stops like for for the the average investor who maybe got in a year ago and is like, "Oh my god, my gold is, you know, more than doubled and my silver has quadrupled here." Um m maybe I should start protecting this in some shape or form. I don't want to exit the trade entirely. Do you have any any particular preferred way to sort of play this knowing this isn't personal finance uh financial advice for any individual watching this? You know, is it more stops? Is it more just selling out and going to cash? Is it more using puts? You know, some some options, right? What would you think? >> Yeah, there's a lot there's a lot to unpack there. I I would simply say that it's always uh always better to have a basic understanding of technical analysis and how charts can help you to manage risk versus listening to those who, you know, are already dug in either bullish or bearish and might have their own ideas as to why they're working. And and I can come up with a dozen reasons why, you know, this should be a great year for precious metals. Uh I I just don't know that we have much gains probably after the first half of this year. >> Uh I think interest rates are due to make a sort of a six-year bottom. At least the treasuries are are likely going to have a cycle that shows a peak in treasuries probably by the middle part of this year that is overdue which means that rates very well could go higher over the next couple years. uh historically that's not been great for precious metals and you really want to watch as real yields start to creep up and so I just worry that uh you know I I I think that you never want to get too enthusiastic about your reasoning where you're avoiding watching actual price action itself and and right now it's as people that are bullish see prices rise they become more and more emboldened that wow this is the right call and they completely have the blinders on as to why, you know, when to get out and if it's silver's up 20 30% in about a week. I mean, you sort of need to understand where you're going to exit and take profits, not just sit there. Um the second point you know and all this is always about respecting one's own methodology and again that's that's so much of this conversation is just different people have different uh time frames and for for gold for example even just since last August we've been from what 3200 to 5,000 very quickly uh any sort of minor pullback until it breaks the larger trend is probably still going to be okay to own. It's really when you start to break trends. And uh even if you can't keep track of that, I would say watch when silver or gold start to make a new multi-week low. In other words, we're going up and up and up. Well, when does that stall and start to roll over? If you want to be short-term, wait for it to make a new say 3-day low. At a minimum, that will be very helpful. And I mean three-day low on a closing basis. So, right now, we're going straight up. I I never advocate people sell usually into strength, but when we start to roll over, that's a time when, you know, the buying has dried up and the sellers take over and things can get very volatile on the downside. So, for very short-term traders, watch for a three-day low. For intermediate term traders, use trend lines and or watch for a new 3-week low. And normally that can help you to, you know, keep a lot more of your profits than trying to understand where we are in the cycle and saying, "Well, I'm just going to ignore the weakness because these are this is the new age and and yeah, I I do sense that, you know, the Fed obviously is in a challenging spot this year and and is going to be under a lot of pressure from the administration and and there's no easy answer as to who is going to be uh the the new chairman." And obviously it it probably is going to be somebody that's at least as doubbish and probably is going to be more dovish than than Powell. And so that's probably going to be good news. That means that rates probably will come down another two times this year. Normally as rates come down, that's good for the metals. But uh that the debt is a bigger issue if tariffs were to be reversed by the Supreme Court. And we know that you know not taking any political stance at all but but certainly companies have felt uh you know a certain sense of uh uh uncertainty to say the least when they don't know what their cash flows are going to be or where they're investing or what tariffs what what effect they could have. It's been a the tariffs have been a negative for most country of companies, but they've actually been a quite a bit of a positive for when you look at the trade balance and we've seen that have been cut in half down to 29 billion as of last month. That's really an impressive reversal and about face which means that the tariffs have been working quite well. So if this were going to be rolled back, how does that work in terms of compensating the company the the countries that we've paid that have paid us this money? And furthermore, we're not going to be addressing the spending anytime soon. And that's just going to lead to to more and more, you know, payments that we're making where our interest payments are greater than we're spending on defense. And that's going to be a eventually that's going to be a problem that is going to come to the forefront. That's going to be an issue. So, uh, my biggest thing is watch sentiment for the metals and try to find as many different sources of sentiment as you can. The CFTC positioning or just talk to people around you. everybody all of a sudden is starting to talk about metals. That's one sign that obviously is very unusual and and it's come out of nowhere. Uh but you want to see it actually in the price action. You want to see prices reverse and that's the biggest thing. It doesn't matter what sentiment is. If if prices continue to go up, then it's fine to be long. I just view it as a sort of a poor intermediate term riskreward given the parabolic state. And and I personally am looking for exits. Last time we spoke, I said that silver and gold were one of my biggest longs for 2025. And then I told you in the last conference call, I think we're going to peak out in October. Well, we did peak out. I I, you know, got rid of a lot of my gold and silver. We had a pretty sharp correction, but now it's right back up and even stronger. And I violated one of my own rules is that the intermediate term trends were weren't broken at all on the metals. It was a short, you know, sharp 15 20% correction. Uh so it suited a lot of people that wanted to find a peak and short or get out or but yeah for the for the longer term investor you need to see evidence of these longer term trends being broken before you really address uh whether it's right to be in or out. >> Okay. Um let me ask you a more fundamental and not technical question here on precious metals. So, one of the things that's been talked a fair amount here at this talked about a fair amount here at this conference is um and this is sort of a a segue uh to your point about bonds um is you're starting to see more like Wall Street firms say, you know what, we had this 40 plus year bond bull market. We might be in a different uh regime going forward with bonds. And so you may want to look at the traditional 6040 allocation and you know look at that 40% that used to be in bonds and maybe take you know some chunk of that and put that into gold instead of bonds. Um and uh you know number of people here saying that's the next big wave that's going to carry this gold bull market higher as that capital because you know the gold market is pretty tiny compared to the bond market. So, it wouldn't take too many percentage points of of of bond capital to flow in here to to still give a lot more octane to what's going on here. Just given your proximity to what Wall Street is doing, you know, is is that is that a potential macro trend factor that you're paying any attention to? >> If one is not invested in gold already on an intermediate term basis, I would not suggest that that's the right move to make. At least for me, I I don't think that it's an attractive riskreward for the year for metals. I I but I think that right now prices are going up. You know, it's fashionable short term, but uh treasuries are going to be a better riskreward I think for the next 6 months and thereafter. I I if gold let's say rates start to let's say yields get down to 385 on the 10-year and all of a sudden uh you know precious metals have corrected 20 to 25%. Well, maybe I would consider it then. Uh I certainly do think that this year more than ever is a good year for diversification, but I I can't simply say that uh gold is probably the better area. In general, commodities would make more sense as a bucket because I think crude is likely going to be ending its three-year bare market sometime uh in the next month. And I do sense that prices go pretty sharply lower from here. But I also think that energy uh is going to outperform this year. I sense that crude is going to have a pretty good lift between probably March and July. >> All right, I'm glad you mentioned that. Um, I've been increasingly talking about the prospects of the oil and gas uh industry with a lot of the experts on this channel. In fact, the video right before this one, Mark, was with Rick Rule. I don't know if you you know who he is, but he's a he's a very well-known natural resources investor and and basically said, "Look, I think the oil and gas sector is as attractive as I've seen it in my career." Now, he's not talking about a, you know, quarterly outlook. He's talking about at some point over the next, you know, one to three years. He thinks that thing might swing back into to boom because it's been in bust for for a good while and and >> you can get in as at attracted prices now and get paid to wait because a lot of these companies pay pretty generous dividends. So, it sounds like you're seeing corroborative uh data, you know, using your very uh technical-driven methodology here. I do. Some of the cycles that I look at for crude oil do tend to bottom uh really in the next couple months and start to turn higher. I I think that this recent little bounce is more Iran related and and probably a little bit of a head fake. I do sense that crude probably gets to 65, but then it should have a pretty big pullback which might start in maybe midFebruary and uh start to go lower and that should be really the final wash out for for crude oil in my view and then at that thereafter uh I would agree with that. I think that anything with the with regards to Venezuela, you know, we need to get prices materially higher to make that attractive at all to even consider uh if the US were to attempt to uh go in and and extract oil, get Venezuela up to let's say two or three million barrels a day again uh from under a million now, right? So I think that that's uh is that is that correct? I'm thinking of uh uh yeah in general I think their their total output has just been reduced substantially and it would be so costly. I think the you know the CEO of Exxon said it right that it's really unattractive at this point. So for AI also, we know that there's going to be a need for fossil fuels. And so I think that Saudi Arabia and the US, you know, have probably cut a deal a few months ago to keep prices low, but I I don't sense that's going to last forever. And I sense that that probably in the next quarter that we probably start to bottom and start to move up. Well, what what what I always like given my position of being able to talk to lots of different people is I like when I hear different analysts using different methodologies come to similar conclusions, right? That that that's a pattern that when I see it usually says there's probably something there there, right? Because, you know, people have different lenses, they're using different approaches, >> uh yet they're they're, >> you know, process brings them to this the same uh point of view. Now Rick is very much, you know, he he's very much a u he's not a technical guy like you are. Um he's much more macro. Um but he's very close to the production side of things. I mean he knows all the people that own the wells or own the mines or whatever. And you know a big part of his um his outlook is one that global demand is going to keep growing for a whole bunch of reasons. But >> y the you know in the commodity industry in oil in particular the cure for low prices is low prices, right? prices get low enough for long enough, people just stop exploring and developing because it's not profitable to do so. And then supply gets tight as a result of that and that shoots prices up and then the boom cycle starts. >> Yeah. And so I just look at it more about cycles and trends and and you know short-term trends certainly have turned a little bit more bullish for crude. But uh I sense that near-term we might push into the mid60s and then we're going to have a pretty big sell-off for reasons that I probably don't understand the fundamental reasons for but I think that that will provide a pretty good buying opportunity uh for crude. So >> okay well it looks like crude has broken out from at least the trend line you have drawn here. um if it gets up to the mid-60s and then has a correction, would you expect it to go back down to that trend line or is the trend line now changing because >> Yeah. No, I think it probably does. I mean, it's funny because I look at a combination of aot wave and cycles and most of the stuff for crude uh does show just over the last couple decades that we're due to start a pretty big move up and this lasts into the summer, but we'll see if that lasts or not. uh energy itself many different parts of energy have been working very well and OIH uh XLE uh of course exploration and production have been a big lagard I think there's probably a little bit of a a bounce here but then that's going to be a little bit weaker so it'll be yeah it's an interesting sector for sure but but different parts of commodities are starting to perk up and and that's uh definitely interesting to me >> all right well Mark if your schedule allows love to have you back on in Q2 and you call an audible for us on what you see going on. But if it turns out that a lot of the things you've talked about here are kind of come to pass, could be an interesting time for, you know, the the investor, you know, the type that watches this channel to um, you know, maybe start to really take some action on some of these things because it sounds like if we get that draw down in in oil after hitting the mid60s, that could be a good time to really get in before the pop you expect is going to happen. um you know might be a good time uh I guess now you're saying maybe to to you know buy some bonds and uh you know by by midsummer might be time to get out of them if things are bottoming then >> yeah the biggest thing that I'd see is the dollar really having started to accelerate dramatically to the downside this has already broken down to the lowest level almost since last fall and so that one can get long the euro and get long pound sterling the yen is going to take some time that also eventually should uh rally a little bit but what's happening with Taichi. You know, I sense the dollar yen is going to be quite weak uh between, you know, probably the spring and the end of the year. So, any sort of pullback you see in dollar yen, if we get down to 147, 150 should be a chance to really get short the yen for a chance for that to probably get to 175 or even 200. So I sense that you know Japan has been through just a relentless wave of uh you know deflation for so long they're willing to tolerate inflation and to the extent that uh you know the JGBs have been you know showing such volatility that uh Scott Bent you know placed a call over to Japan I think that they're going to try to we'll we'll see what happens but but I sense that we're going to start to see uh rate hikes and and you know at some point we're going to see a I think this year is still going to be very weak for the yen. So, that's interesting. It probably means their stock market, it might correct during the same time as ours does, but it should be a great time to own Japan for the years to come at all-time highs. >> Okay. All right. Well, look, um I I know you got to get off in just a minute here. So, real quick, um you you showed some of the cycles that you look at. I'm just curious, you know, I I interviewed um Michael How recently, not sure if you're familiar with him, but he's um liquidity is his big thing. He's a former Solomon Brothers guy. he's been following these liquidity >> models for decades and decades and um >> you know from from the years I've been interviewing him um his his calls have been pretty good and they're largely based on what's happening with liquidity flow. So, for example, he was, I think, the first guy I know to really go put his neck out and and go long um in October of 2022. And it was largely because, you know, his multi-year global liquidity cycle had had bottomed and was starting up again. And, you know, with a lot of people I interview here, sometimes I do just say, look, is it really at the end of the day just all about liquidity? Because when the tide is rising, you know, all boats kind of go up with it. So he's now his model he thinks the current multi-year cycle peaked out in Q4. Um so we we just started to peak and it's you know uh we probably have a multi-year down cycle against it and and and the cycles are the the duration is variable because it depends on the speed of the decline. Um but uh but he's basically kind of like you saying hey we're going to start having more headwinds this year. It's going to be more volatile year because of liquidity. Do you look at liquidity at all in your uh do you take that into account at all in your soup of data that you look at? >> Yeah. No, I I really is there's so much information to look at. It's not part of my personal toolbox. If I can just look at sector rotation and trends and sentiment and seasonality and cycles, they they tend to provide a lot of the shorter term uh you know avenues that really can help investors stay on the right side of trends. I mean liquidity is a longer term type thing. It it in my view it would probably take a longer time to make heads or tails as to if you take a stance based on liquidity it might not materialize right away but it it certainly for an immediate term would be important. I would think that you know cutting back on QT uh you know could produce the opposite in the short run but but we'll see and if they ratchet rates down another couple times I think that'd be helpful. But we still have an affordability problem of course in the US and >> housing where it is and and mortgages mortgage rates are they've come down to 6% but they're still roughly double what they were a couple years ago. So uh yeah, we'll see how that all shakes out. >> All right. Well, Mark, I I can't thank you enough, especially for squeezing this in everything that's going on in your busy schedule. >> Of course. Yeah, my my pleasure. We're uh we got hit pretty hard with about 15 inches of snow out east, but but everything's going to be just fine. So, uh, bottom line is, uh, stay the, you know, depending on your risk tolerance, stay the course. But, uh, I I expect eventually the S&P >> for the year might get to to 7,300 and 7,200 might be possible over the next month. But, um, after that, I think it's really going to be a choppy time for uh, spring and really Q3 and you want to buy dips into that in October. >> Okay. So, um, you know, again, I'd love to have you on quarterly at least just to kind of provide great a chance to provide audible calls and all that in case other other things are changing. For folks that would really have really appreciated this and would like to follow you and your work between the next time you come on this channel, Mark, where should they go? >> So, I would either suggest going to fundstrat.com fudd or fs insight. Uh, we have a product for both retail and also institutions. uh myself, you can follow me on X on Mark Newton CMT and happy to provide your viewers with uh maybe a link that they can click on or a CR a QR code that that might be uh that can bring you to that. I I'll provide you with that after the interview. >> Great. So Mark, as usual, when I edit this, I'll put up the links to those URLs and to your your ex handle. I'll also put the links in the description below the video, folks. And also down there, Mark, if you send me that that code or that link, special link itself, we'll put it there, too, so folks can can get to all those places with just one click click. Um, Mark, it's always such a pleasure. Folks, please do me a favor. Please let Mark know how much you appreciate him coming on by hitting the like button and then clicking the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. And uh if you want to get some help in in taking some action in your portfolio based on anything that that Mark and I discussed here, if you don't already have a good financial adviser advising you on that, feel free to talk to one of the ones that Thoughtful Money endorses for free. To do that, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com, fill out the short form there. Mark, really hope you get home okay today, strap on those snowshoes, and uh you know, get some hot chocolate. >> Thank you, Adam. Happy New Year to everybody, and uh look forward to talking to you again soon. Take care. >> All right. Thanks so much. And everybody else, thanks so much for watching.