Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | 0% | 42.8% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 42.8% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% | 0% | 42.8% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 42.8% |
Rozendal Global Fund delivered exceptional 2025 performance with 42.8% returns, significantly outperforming the 22.6% benchmark return. The fund benefited from its long-standing underweight to US equities in favor of European and Emerging Market holdings, which delivered the strongest regional returns. Key contributors included Bayer's pharmaceutical recovery, Pepco's operational turnaround, and silver's speculative surge. The Materials sector experienced a dramatic reversal with 32.3% returns driven by precious metals, particularly gold reaching unprecedented inflation-adjusted levels. Despite launching the greatest trade war in modern times, global markets continued delivering strong returns, highlighting short-term unpredictability. The manager emphasizes their behavioral competitive advantage in holding positions uncomfortable for myopic investors, supported by recent academic research validating long-horizon investing. Gold appears extraordinarily expensive on all long-term value measures, driven by geopolitical concerns and record central bank purchases. The fund maintains focus on attractively priced assets rather than following current market manias, positioning for superior long-term results through patient capital deployment.
Long-term value investing approach focusing on behavioral competitive advantage by holding uncomfortable positions that myopic shareholders avoid, particularly in European and Emerging Market equities trading at attractive valuations relative to fundamentals.
The manager expresses confidence that owning attractively priced assets in the Rozendal funds is more likely to deliver satisfactory long-term investment results than owning gold at current elevated prices, though timing of sentiment change to restore gold to sensible levels cannot be forecasted.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 6586.T, AENA.MC, AMS.JO, BAYRY, BLU.JO, CGR.JO, COH.JO, DEO, HAR.JO, JD, KSPI.L, MTN.JO, SLV, TBS.JO, YRK.JO | emerging markets, Europe, gold, long-term, materials, Precious Metals, trade war, value | BAYN GR | Rozendal Global Fund delivered 42.8% returns in 2025, beating benchmark by 20% through European and Emerging Market focus while avoiding overvalued US equities. Materials sector surged 32% on precious metals boom, with gold reaching extreme valuations. Fund's behavioral edge in holding uncomfortable positions validated by academic research, maintaining discipline against current market manias for superior long-term outcomes. |
| Jul 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AFM.L, ASR.JO, B4B.DE, BLU.JO, CCOLA.IS, COH.JO, HCI.JO, HL.L, KSPI.L, MTN.JO, NE, NPK.JO, OCE.JO, PRX.AS, SESG.PA, WINE.L | global, Mining, private equity, Satellites, tariffs, Turkey, value | - | Rozendal Global Fund returned 23% in H1 2025, outperforming on underweight US positioning during tariff volatility. Successfully exited Turkish hyperinflation plays and mining positions due to conflict risk. SES satellite business doubled on spectrum and defense tailwinds. Multiple private equity takeouts validated value thesis. Maintains bottom-up focus on quality businesses facing temporary challenges. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AFE.JO, BLU.JO, BUR.L, GRT.JO, HCI.JO, JD, META, NE, PPH.JO, SES, TBS.JO, TSCO.L | China, commodities, financials, global, oil, Restructuring, South Africa, value | - | Rozendal Global Fund underperformed significantly in 2024 due to limited US exposure during a year favoring large-cap technology and financials. Meta was the key contributor while oil services and Brazilian consumer stocks detracted. The manager completed profitable wheat futures trades and disposed of Burford Capital, maintaining focus on undervalued international opportunities despite challenging market conditions. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 0700.HK, B4B.DE, BAYN.DE, CGR.JO, HCI.JO, HL.L, KSPI.L, MDIA3.SA, META, MTN.JO, NPK.JO, NPN.JO, PPC.JO, SDRY.L | global, Passive investing, South Africa, technology, Turnarounds, value | - | Rozendal underperformed in H1 2024 by avoiding US tech while suffering from failed turnarounds like Superdry. Despite passive investing challenges to traditional value approaches, the managers defend focusing on cash flow generation over multiple re-rating, emphasizing patience and disciplined position sizing in their fundamental investment process. |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | LKOH.L, MDC.L, META, MNZS.L, WINE.L | energy, growth, inflation, Platinum, Russia, Sanctions, technology, value | - | Rozendal Global Fund outperformed significantly during turbulent H1 2022, declining 9.8% versus benchmark's 20% fall. Limited tech exposure provided protection during sector selloff. Benefited from takeover activity in Menzies and Mediclinic. Completed profitable decade-plus platinum mining cycle. Lukoil marked to zero due to sanctions. Maintains value-focused approach avoiding overvalued growth sectors. |
| Dec 31 2021 | 2021 Q4 | AFMJF, AFT.JO, BKNG, BLU.JO, CCJ, IMP.JO, LUKOY, MGROS.IS, MTN.JO, PPC.JO, SAHOL.IS, SCP.JO, SDRY.L, YRK.JO | commodities, emerging markets, energy, Mining, Recovery, Travel, Turkey, value | - | Rozendal's Global Fund underperformed in 2021 due to limited tech exposure and Turkish currency volatility, while commodity holdings like Cameco and Alphamin drove positive contributions. The managers completed profitable investment cycles and maintain their value-focused approach, avoiding speculative areas while positioning for commodity recovery and eventual travel normalization. |
| Jun 30 2021 | 2021 Q2 | CCJ, CPI.JO, IVT.JO, META, MGROS.IS, MTN.JO, PPC.JO, PSG.JO, QUINENCO.SN, RCL.JO, SAHOL.IS, SESG.PA, YRK.JO | emerging markets, global, inflation, Mining, nuclear, Turkey, value | - | Rozendal delivered mixed H1 2021 performance with Turkish political volatility weighing on returns despite strong uranium and Facebook contributions. The manager successfully completed a PSG stub trade and continues focusing on discounted family-controlled holding companies. While acknowledging inflation risks, they avoid broad commodity exposure at current elevated prices, preferring selective opportunities where political turmoil creates fundamental value disconnects. |
| Dec 31 2020 | 2020 Q4 | AMZN, BAYRY, CCJ, SLV | growth, Mining, Precious Metals, small cap, South Africa, SPACs, technology, value |
CCJ BAYRY |
Rozendal's value-focused approach faced significant headwinds in 2020 as growth dramatically outperformed. Despite underperformance from cash holdings and limited tech exposure, the fund benefited from silver and uranium positions. Management maintains conviction in value investing, viewing current SPAC proliferation and growth valuations as signs of dangerous market exuberance reminiscent of historical bubbles. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
FinancialsThe Fund is currently substantially invested in the Financials sector, with performance closely tied to developments in this industry. Companies in the Financials sector may be adversely affected by changes in the regulatory environment and interest rate changes. |
Banks Insurance Interest Rates Regulation |
| 2025 Q2 |
TurkeyExtensive discussion of Turkish investments including Migros Ticaret, Sabanci Holdings, and Coca Cola Icecek. Turkey attracted attention due to political and economic turmoil creating cheap assets. The hyperinflationary environment and negative real interest rates created a consumption boom that benefited retailers and beverage companies. All Turkish positions were successfully exited with strong returns. |
Hyperinflation Consumption Currency Politics Retail |
TariffsTrump's Liberation Day tariffs caused market volatility with S&P 500 declining 19% before recovering. Historical analysis suggests tariffs have relatively minor long-term impacts on GDP, inflation, and equity markets. The manager maintains focus on bottom-up investing rather than macro events. |
Trade Policy Volatility Macro Politics | |
MiningDiscussion of Alphamin tin mining operations in Democratic Republic of Congo. Despite strong operational performance and favorable tin market dynamics, regional conflict risks prompted full exit. Single mine operations in unstable jurisdictions present high risk but can be lucrative with proper risk management. |
Tin Africa Geopolitical Risk Commodities | |
SatellitesSES satellite business benefited from multiple positive developments including potential C-band spectrum sales to US FCC, Intelsat acquisition providing additional spectrum exposure, and European defense spending tailwinds. Share price more than doubled in first half of year. |
Defense Spending Spectrum Communications | |
Private EquityMultiple portfolio companies were taken private by insiders or private equity investors including Metro AG and Hargreaves Lansdown. While these exits sometimes don't provide full value to minority shareholders, they validate the manager's assessment of intrinsic value. |
Buyouts Valuation Exit | |
| 2024 Q4 |
FinancialsBanking sector delivered strong performance in 2024, particularly US mega-cap banks benefiting from prospects of lighter regulation under Trump administration. The sector has been a perennial underperformer since 2007 financial crisis but showed renewed strength. |
Banks Regulation Trump Profitability |
ChinaChina remains a battleground market with mixed views - some see it as economy of the future while others consider it uninvestable due to political risk. JD.com benefited from government policy support for consumption and capital markets during 2024. |
Policy Consumption Political Risk Government Support | |
OilOil drilling companies like Noble faced challenges due to weak economies, particularly China, and fluctuating oil prices around levels where new exploration investment is not compelling. This weighed on share prices of oil service companies. |
Drilling Exploration Capital Expenditure Price Volatility | |
WheatUkraine invasion caused wheat prices to reach extreme levels due to supply disruptions and fertilizer cost pressures. The fund successfully shorted wheat futures as prices normalized over two years, generating useful returns through the commodity cycle. |
Ukraine Supply Disruption Fertilizer Commodity Cycle | |
South AfricaSouth African market showed mixed performance with Tiger Brands benefiting from CEO restructuring efforts and PPC supported by Government of National Unity positivity. However, traditional gaming and bingo operations struggled in constrained consumer environment. |
Restructuring Consumer Environment Government Gaming | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ValueThe letter extensively discusses value investing challenges in the current market environment, including David Einhorn's assertion that passive investing has broken traditional value investing approaches. The managers defend value investing principles while acknowledging the need for patience in waiting for cash flow generation rather than multiple re-rating. |
Value Passive Investing Mean Reversion Cash Flow Fundamentals |
TurnaroundsDetailed analysis of the failed Superdry investment highlights the challenges of business turnarounds, even when led by founder-CEOs. The managers note that while founder-led turnarounds have better odds of success, they remain difficult propositions with substantial risks. |
Turnarounds Founder Restructuring Operational Recovery | |
| 2022 Q2 |
Platinum Group MetalsCompleted decade-plus investment cycle in platinum miners Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum. Industry experienced severe downturn from 2011-2018 due to oversupply, recycling, and demand shifts, followed by spectacular recovery driven by palladium and rhodium price increases. Sold final positions after recognizing top-of-cycle indicators including elevated capex, M&A activity, and new supply coming online. |
Platinum Palladium Rhodium Mining Commodities |
InflationExtensive analysis of current inflation environment reaching 40-year highs in developed markets. Historical data shows weak correlation between point-in-time inflation and long-term equity returns. Asset class performance varies significantly across different inflationary and growth regimes, with commodities and value stocks historically outperforming during inflationary periods. |
Inflation Rates Commodities Value | |
EnergyEnergy sector benefited significantly from Russian oil and gas supply constraints following Ukraine invasion, with energy being the only positive-performing sector in first half 2022. Russian energy exposure through Lukoil became problematic due to Western sanctions, with shares marked to zero despite fund still owning the position. |
Oil Natural Gas Russia Sanctions | |
TechnologyTechnology sector experienced severe selloff extending beyond speculative names to high-quality blue chips. Meta Platforms declined 25% on single day due to TikTok competition, Apple privacy changes affecting ad targeting, and first-ever decline in daily users. Former high-flying tech stocks moved from growth to value indices, reflecting dramatic sentiment shift. |
Technology Social Media Growth | |
SanctionsWestern sanctions on Russia following Ukraine invasion created significant challenges for investors holding Russian assets. Lukoil shares became untradeable and were marked to zero in the Global Fund, despite the fund still owning the physical shares with work underway to preserve value. |
Russia Sanctions Geopolitical | |
| 2021 Q4 |
UraniumUranium markets experiencing significant tightness with prices rising from $30 to $45 per pound. New production requires prices around $50-65 per pound to be viable. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has brought new demand to the market. Kazakhstan continues to curtail output by 20% pursuing value over volume strategy. |
Nuclear Energy Transition Critical Minerals |
TinStrong demand for tin driven by booming consumer electronics requiring solder for circuit boards. Supply constraints from traditional producers Myanmar and Indonesia have pushed prices higher from depressed levels. Alphamin owns premier tin deposit with high grade compensating for political risks. |
Battery Metals Consumer Electronics Critical Minerals | |
OilOil prices increased sharply from $50 to $80 per barrel during 2021. Strong demand from recovering global economy post-Covid and muted supply response from oil producing countries drove price increases. This benefited holdings like Lukoil despite ongoing political concerns about Russia. |
Energy Exploration & Production Integrated Oil & Gas | |
Iron OreIron ore prices reached unsustainably high levels well above incentive levels of $50-60 per ton, eventually declining from $220 to $140 per ton after Chinese property crackdown. Afrimat's profits became heavily dependent on iron ore through Demaneng operation. |
Steel China Commodities | |
TurkeyTurkish politics chaotic with flip-flopping monetary policy causing volatile exchange rates. Turkish lira depreciated over 40% during the year despite government interventions. President Erdogan losing support ahead of 2023 elections which may be positive for the country. |
Emerging markets Currency Political Risk | |
TravelCovid-19 represented the most severe disruption to travel industry since modern aviation began. Booking Holdings investment thesis based on eventual recovery to 2019 revenue levels, though recovery took longer than initially anticipated. OTA business model remains attractive with network effects. |
Online Travel Hotels Recovery | |
| 2021 Q2 |
ValueValue stocks made a strong showing during the first half of 2021, reversing years of underperformance. The manager notes this is typical during economic recovery periods when more economically sensitive investments outperform. |
Value Economic recovery Outperformance |
UraniumCameco featured as a top contributor with continued supply discipline by major uranium producers and strong commodity markets supporting mining companies. Nuclear energy expected to become greater part of US energy mix under Paris Climate Agreement. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply discipline Climate | |
TurkeyTurkish investments including Sabanci and Migros have delivered volatile returns due to political turmoil. The manager expects good opportunities in emerging markets where political issues cause assets to sell off regardless of business fundamentals. |
Turkey Political risk Emerging markets Volatility | |
InflationInflation has been increasing sharply in global economies with fiscal and monetary stimulus effects visible. Historically commodities and mining stocks have done well during high inflation periods, though current commodity prices are at record levels above marginal production costs. |
Inflation Commodities Mining Stimulus | |
CommoditiesMining equities offer low forward earnings multiples but commodity prices are at almost record levels above marginal production costs. The manager warns against relying on earnings multiples for mining sector allocation and advocates caution when prices are well above marginal costs. |
Commodities Mining Valuations Marginal cost | |
| 2020 Q4 |
ValueThe fund continues to focus on value investing despite value's worst underperformance relative to growth on record in 2020. Management discusses the tobacco industry as an example of how value stocks can deliver returns through cash flows even without market re-rating, making money slowly but forever. |
Value Growth Underperformance Tobacco Dividends |
SilverSilver was a top contributor to returns, rising sharply after reaching historically low prices relative to gold. The metal benefited from safe-haven demand during the equity crash and perceived inflation hedge characteristics as central banks initiated money printing. |
Silver Gold Inflation Safe Haven Industrial Demand | |
UraniumCameco benefited from growing nuclear demand as the global reactor fleet expands, particularly in China and Japan. News of BHP abandoning expansion plans at Olympic Dam mine excited investors and pushed uranium prices higher. |
Uranium Nuclear Cameco China Supply | |
SPACsThe prevalence of SPAC listings is viewed as a sign of market exuberance, with investors willing to put faith in managers without even knowing what business they will acquire. Management sees this as reminiscent of bubble conditions. |
SPACs Bubble Exuberance IPO Speculation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Wilhelm Hertzog | BAYN GR | Bayer AG | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Xetra | litigation, pharmaceuticals, pipeline, rerating, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 31, 2020 | Fund Letters | Rozendal Global Fund | CCJ | Cameco Corporation | Uranium | Uranium | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | China, Commodities, energy transition, Japan, Mining, nuclear energy, Supply Constraint, uranium, Zero Carbon | Login |
| Dec 31, 2020 | Fund Letters | Rozendal Global Fund | BAYRY | Bayer AG | Drug Manufacturers - General | Pharmaceuticals | Neutral | - | Agricultural, Class Action, Crop Science, Diversified Healthcare, Germany, Legal Settlement, litigation risk, pharmaceuticals | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMS.JO | Mining conglomerate Anglo American sold and unbundled its majority interest in Anglo American Platinum ('Amplats') during 2024 and 2025. To mark the end of Anglo's ownership, Amplats changed its name to Valterra Platinum. There have been no major changes in operations or strategy at Valterra since leaving the Anglo stable. There has, however, been a major change in the price of the platinum group metals that Valterra produces. A change in Western governments' stances towards the electrification of motorised transport, and subdued production following years of low prices and limited investment by miners has finally resulted in PGM prices materially higher than incentive prices. The exceptionally high gold price has also dragged along platinum in its wake: platinum has some of the same store of value appeal as gold, and the two metals are to a limited extent substitutes for each other in jewellery production. The sharp metals price increase in the sector has lifted share prices across the sector dramatically. The four major PGM producers listed in South Africa (of which Valterra is the largest by PGM production volume) saw their share prices increase three to four times in the space of the year, and the Hedge Fund's Valterra investment hence contributed very pleasingly to returns for the year. |
| BAYRY | This pharmaceutical, agricultural and consumer health conglomerate has been a meaningful investment for the Global Fund for several years. Since inception, it has delivered very poor investment returns for the Fund. Happily, 2025 brought a change in fortunes for the company and the share price. Two of the key areas of investor concern about the company – a patent cliff in its pharmaceutical business, and ongoing costly litigation in its agriculture business – showed some very positive developments. In the former area, sales of some of its new drugs brought to market recently have been growing very strongly, and there were some very positive developments in the company's pipeline. In the agricultural business, there were finally judgements in the company's favour which have the potential to draw a line under the ongoing litigation. After dismal share price performances in 2023 and 2024, the Bayer share price approximately doubled during 2025. |
| BLU.JO | We first came to Cell C through Blue Label Unlimited (BLU). BLU remains a compelling opportunity, even if it has been an exceptionally volatile business to own over the last three years: we have seen the market capitalisation move from roughly R2.5bn to R15bn, and then back down to around R9bn today. BLU's core business is a high free-cash-flow, capital-light distribution operation, currently valued at roughly 4x FCF. In November last year, BLU listed Cell C by selling down its 95% stake. BLU proceeded with the IPO at a valuation of R9bn. Based on our estimates, that implied a c. 19% free-cash-flow yield — meaning new IPO investors would capture most of the discount, not BLU shareholders. |
| CGR.JO | Calgro M3 is a leading developer of affordable residential property. Its largest exposure is to Gauteng, where the residential property market has been weak. Out of caution and concern about potential disruptions around the 2024 national elections, the company had pulled back on the pace of development, which in turn has held back the delivery of completed units during 2025. The prospects for the South African residential property market have certainly improved in recent months. Calgro's share price is only likely to reflect this once there is tangible evidence of progress and success at the very large new Bankenveld development in the north of Johannesburg that it has embarked on recently. |
| COH.JO | Private school business Curro was a Covid recovery laggard that first became a standalone Hedge Fund portfolio investment during 2023 (the Hedge Fund held some indirect exposure to Curro via former parent company PSG Group in earlier years. Difficult business conditions have kept the share price rather depressed since then. In August 2025, the Jannie Mouton Foundation made an offer to acquire all Curro's shares in issue in exchange for a mix of Capitec and PSG Financial Services shares, as well as a small amount of cash. The implied value of this offer was far more than the prevailing share price, and the dramatic rise in Curro's share price to reflect this was a welcome contributor to the Hedge Fund's returns for the year. |
| DEO | Examples include Tidewater, Valaris, Constellation Brands, Diageo and Trex. We have discussed TDW and VAL previously, as well as STZ and DEO here. |
| HAR.JO | New positions were initiated in Harmony |
| JD | The difference in fortunes between the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets and JD.com's share price has been stark. Whereas the overall markets have been very strong, JD.com's share price declined during 2025. This is not on account of the fortunes of JD's core business: retail revenues and profitability have been growing strongly. The market concern reflected in the share price sprouts from JD's decision to invest heavily in a new food delivery venture in China. Here it will be competing against very large, very well capitalised incumbents like Meituan and Alibaba. The market is rightly concerned that this will prove to be costly and has punished JD's share price accordingly – at least in relative terms. |
| KSPI.L | As in the first half of the year (refer to our last investor letter), Kaspi's share price lagged in the second half of the year. Some market challenges in Kazakhstan only became visible in reported results during the latter half of the year, which resulted in more muted revenue and profit growth for Kaspi than what investors have historically been used to. New government smartphone registration requirements and iPhone shortages depressed e-commerce revenues (smartphones are a material revenue generator for most large online general merchandise retailers), whilst higher banking reserve requirements, a new tax on interest income and higher base rates payable on customer deposits depressed interest income on the banking side of the business. |
| SLV | The Global Fund has had an investment in silver – by way of the iShares Silver Trust exchange traded fund – for several years now. For much of this time, it served its purpose as a currency alternative and inflation hedge just fine. Strong industrial demand (mainly from the Chinese solar panel industry) coupled with constrained mine supply and the ever-increasing price of gold supported the silver price. But in the second half of 2025, the type of speculative mania which grips the silver market every decade or two suddenly erupted. By year-end, the inflation adjusted price reached levels in the vicinity of that seen during the infamous cornering of the silver market by the Hunt brothers in 1980. |
| TBS.JO | Venerable South African food producer Tiger Brands was a stock market darling during the mid-2010s, enjoying stellar share price ratings. But as with so many South African businesses, Tiger Brands went on an ill-considered foreign expansion strategy (into Africa, in Tiger's case) which cost it dearly. Equity investors lost confidence in the business, and the share delivered dismal returns in the decade leading up to 2024. Tjaart Kruger, a highly regarded industry veteran who led Premier Foods to great success in the decade during which Tiger's troubles were surfacing, was appointed CEO of the company late in 2023. The turnaround in the fortunes of the business since then has been spectacular. The share price has followed suit. |
| YRK.JO | York is the leading sawmill operator and plywood producer in South Africa by volume. However, it has been beset by perennial plant performance problems at its largest sawmill in Sabie, which it has yet to resolve. In addition, the global plywood market (York exports a material percentage of its plywood production) has weakened during the year. Demand (tied to US residential construction) has been under pressure, and the weakening US dollar has eroded the profitability of exports. The result has been a York share price which continues to languish at a deep discount to the value of its assets. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||