SPECIAL REPORT: Under-Fire Fed Keeps Interest Rates Flat | Axel Merk

Summary

• Fed Update: Powell held rates steady with a neutral tone, stressing data dependence and avoiding forward guidance; market reaction was muted.
• Macro Backdrop: Discussion highlighted persistent fiscal deficits, tariff-driven currency flow shifts, and tempered foreign demand for Treasurys keeping long yields elevated.
• Precious Metals Surge: Gold and silver have rocketed, driven more by concerns over fiscal sustainability and diversified demand than by a loss of confidence in central banks.
• Miners vs. Metals: Miners have lagged spot moves, but margins look attractive given contained energy costs, manageable labor, and restrained tax grabs, setting up potential catch-up if metals don’t correct hard.
• Flow Dynamics: Central banks and Asia remain key buyers while U.S. retail shows two-way flows; ETF holdings (in ounces) are below prior peaks, suggesting room before froth.
• Risk and Volatility: Expect sharp swings and possible pullbacks, especially in silver; speculation is evident in some markets, but a broad “bubble” signal is not yet apparent.
• Fed Chair Race: Candidates like Kevin Walsh, Chris Waller, and Rick Rieder could shape policy stance; a more activist balance-sheet approach would be more supportive for gold.
• Portfolio Approach: Guest remains constructive on precious metals and miners, emphasizing risk management, position sizing, and avoiding FOMO amid rapid price gains.

Transcript

And we should be live. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thulful Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert. Welcoming you here for a special report with uh my good friend, Axel Murk, who is one of the best Fed watchers in the business. Axel, great to see you again. Thanks so much for joining us today. >> Great to be with you. And my compliance hat comes on right away. I cannot accept any endorsement otherwise my compliance is going to chop my head off. [laughter] >> I I can't even say you're a nice guy. I I even there I have to put in a a wonderful disclaimer that uh that that is I yeah anyway it's been a long day. It's great to see you. >> Great to see you too. Um all right so we have a lot to talk about um both with just what the Fed announced today. I also want to talk about you know the upcoming uh horse race on who might uh uh succeed chair Jerome Powell. I also want to talk about uh the political pressure that's being applied to the Fed uh in the middle of all this, you know, with the lawsuit against uh the Fed chair and and um Lisa Cook. And then I want to talk about gold and silver which have been positively I don't know white hot on fire. Those feel like two uh pedestrian uh adjectives for there's it just doesn't seem to capture exactly how crazy the action's been. and the precious metals. So, we got a lot to talk about. Also want to talk about the miners, which is in a specific area of your expertise, Axel. So, we'll try to condense all that into the hour, folks. Um, please do me a favor, let me know where you're watching from. If you're watching live, it's always really useful to know where the audience is tuning in from. Um, so [snorts] Axel, um, also let you know, too, I've been recording all day. In fact, I literally just came from recording a long interview with Michael Oliver, whose predictions on the precious metals, folks, are mind-blowing. Um, and uh, that video is going to release tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. Uh, if you care at all about the precious metals, you're definitely want to tune into that. So, Axel, I haven't actually had a chance to watch Jerome Pal's press conference. Um, that being said, um, uh, so I'm going to lean on heavy for anything coming out of that on you. But that being said, the Fed uh pretty much as expected, left rates alone this time. Uh there were two dissents. Uh Steven Mirren, which of course everybody expected him to descent because he wants more cuts. Also, Christopher Waller did, which some is wondering if if he's trying to throw his, you know, hat in the ring uh for taking pal's job. Um so, two folks wanted it lower, but they decided to hold it steady for now. Um the rate cut odds for the year continue to fall. I think right now there's just two rate cuts that the market is expecting for the rest of 2026. Um what I took from at least the release was the following. Um the Fed has upgraded its view of the economy um saying that economic activity has been quote expanding at a solid pace. Um the Fed while it did repeat that inflation remains somewhat elevated uh it uh Jerome Pal himself said hey the upside risks to inflation have moderated. Um similarly the Fed removed the language from its its statement uh that that used to note that downside risks to the employment rose in recent months. they took rid of that uh and uh tweaked the description to note that job gains um have remained low but jobless rates the jobless rate has shown some signs of stabilization. So, in the one little clip I did catch from Jerome Pal's press conference, he said, "Hey, look, upside risks to inflation have diminished and downside risks to employment have diminished, which basically means we're feeling a little bit better about the economy, which they did note has been now expanding at a quote solid pace, which is a large part of the rationale for why they decided they could just hold pat this quarter." I want to dig into that a little bit more with you in just a minute, but um were those the things that you thought were most notable or were there other things that caught your attention? >> Well, they they they were all that I think that was an excellent summary, especially for somebody who didn't listen to it. [laughter] The um the one thing that struck me maybe the most is the one thing that nobody has pointed out is that the trading activity into the Fed meeting was somewhat normal. And I say that because usually there's the suspense ahead of the press conference and then there's this release now. And that happens even during times when when people think there's no change. >> And I attribute that to Powell being a lame duck. It didn't really matter so much what he would say. Obviously, if he puts his foot in his mouth, then the market might react. And he tried desperately not to do that. um declining to answer numerous questions about um the politics of it. All he says that the only thing he said on the political side is because Bessant when he was in Davos said um he thought it was inappropriate for Powell to go and sit in the audience at the Supreme Court during the hearings and and he went anyway and what he said it's one of the most important decisions um that's ever affected the Fed and by the way Paul Vular in the 80s also attended the Supreme Court hearing and so he decided to go um but um the on the um the the there wasn't really much of a marked reaction and and while you're saying yeah there aren't many rate cuts um more there's less price then there wasn't really a change between before and after the meeting. So the press conference did not really move the markets afterwards price of gold moved higher and and the like but didn't terribly move the markets. um as you point out right he he kind of said oh yeah both sides of our equation they kind of look better but he was asked by several people well do you change the balance of risk is it in balance and and he pushed back at any one of these things and the short of that is that he wanted to leave today's decision on its own didn't want to give any forward guidance say hey we're going to be data dependent he was also asked hey is the next move up or down or what is it and again he didn't say anything and so he very hard tried to not introduce any any bias and in many ways that's healthy because you don't want to give forward guidance you're supposed to be open-minded all all that and then just briefly on the the wallet descent um several people tried to point out oh maybe he does that because he he wants to get the job and I was on Twitter and pushed back against that I I said he's going to do what he thinks is right And the reason is, and we'll get into the the Fed chair competition, um, but I disagree with the candidates on on policy and on substance, I am not questioning their personal integrity. >> Okay. >> Um, and maybe in an audience where everybody hates the Fed [laughter] and that's a neos that that others don't care about, but I do think it matters when it comes to analysis. Um and and for what it's worth, right, he was p Paul was asked, "So where are we relative to neutral?" And he said, "Well, we don't really know where neutral is. We must move closer to neutral. Some think it's a little lower and the like." And so the short of it is that Powell is somewhat happy where they are. So seems to be the majority of the Fed. The two denters are not. Um so it's a it's he didn't really say much that was new. And as you know, I've mentioned in discussions with you before, why hold the press conferences if you have nothing to say, right? The journalist did a good job laying out a whole bunch of traps and I think for the most part he was able to avoid them. >> Okay. Um, so did you watch the full press conference? >> I did. Yes. I I'm curious what was the tenor of of the journalists there like over the course of the past year. You know, I had noted they become kind of increasingly pushing back on pal like, "Hey, you're telling us the economy is fine, but we're hearing all this other stuff." Was it was it that contentious? Um or was it more friendly this time? >> Well, it was contentious only with regard to all the political questions, >> which which basically said, "I'm not going to answer." Right. Not the time, >> which he's in in various different ways. He was and there there was even some some chuckling going through the audience at question after question he he kind of um indicated that that he's here to to kind of focus on monetary policy. >> Okay. >> Um he said the stuff central bankers say there's broad support for holding. Um and he said I'm quoting here I'm not making a judgment one is more at risk than the other regarding the the the mandates that they have. Um he was asked several questions about the dollar and the one thing where I don't think he's correct but at least that's what he said and maybe he was supposed to say it. The one thing he said about the dollar he did not see that foreigners have changed their behavior with regard to the dollar and so that's a proper answer but I don't know whether that's the accurate answer >> mean in terms of purchasing US debt or >> Yes. Exactly. Exactly. I mean, so I think the data speak for themselves that that they're not there as much, but um but um >> can you can you talk about that then? Um h how if you're seeing a delta in the data, how large is it? What's the trajectory look like? How worried are you about it? >> Well, I think we we've talked about it. When you have tariffs, you don't just impact the flow of goods, you impact the flow of currency. And so it less currency makes it back into the US. And you see that in stubbornly high borrowing costs that the bond yields are lower because there needs to needs to be more. I attended a an academic session um at Stanford the other day and they framed this as excess liquidity which is of course one way of of looking at it is that the world is in demand of of US liquidity and of liquidity and gets it from from treasuries gets it from the US safe assets and so forth the demand for safe assets and if you inhibit trade there is less demand for that liquidity you can translate it to to the exorbitant privilege as and so forth and and you see that and very different. Um Malpass wrote an editorial in the was the journal today and he said, "Oh, the long-term rates are pretty much only a function of cumulative short-term rates and the Fed has it all wrong." Well, that's a bit too simplistic. There are a lot of things that go into into the into the long end of the yield curve. And it's the it's it's the appetite. It's of course the appetite. Generally speaking, a treasury bond does not care whether a an American, a Chinese or a Brit buys that treasury, right? It just cares about demand. But if you disincentivize foreigners to buy your debt because you might sanction them because you might enter into a war because you want to buy get one of their islands because you are making it more difficult for them to trade. There are implications and so and a lot of the views that have kind of been some more on the fringes are are coming are coming to light in the current environment of what we're seeing. >> All right. So from a level of concern standpoint, where are you? Are you just seeing some initial things? Uh or is this a trend where you're like, look, this is I mean I know you study currency flows a lot because you had currency funds there at Mark. >> Yes, we used to be very active in that space and now we're quote unquote only doing precious metals. >> Let me let me put it this way. Um, I I the markets have humbled me many many times over. Of course, I like to have a narrative, a macro narrative as to why something is happening, and I've shared those with you many times. I'm actually usually quite happy when things move in my direction. I am much more concerned when things are actually playing out almost too good to be true because it means that the market might have caught up with where I am and that also means that I might be lagging behind in what might be coming next >> and so by being right I'm actually not in a comfortable spot. Mhm. >> And if there is one thing today as we're talking, the price of gold, the spot price of gold is up $237,4.58% as I'm speaking. And by the way, if others have slightly different prices, this is from Bloomberg. Sometimes people use a different reference price. Um, closing price, you often look at the futures price, which is often a little bit different, right? Futures are up $2737. They they close earlier, but still uh it's a different reference price. I did not think that was extraordinary at all. And to me that was concerning that I thought well hey up 200 bucks as almost as if that were the new normal which of course it is. >> Um and and and so the the thing that I think I've mentioned to you as well is that the these precious metals markets are so small that so smaller changes in allocations can have a big impact and and kind of tying it back to the Fed. Um, as you know, we we've worked with Bill P since 2008, the former St. Louis Fed president, and he once told us that of course the Federal Reserve has the bazooka. Actually said it before the term bazooka was too popular, but um but ultimately central banks are just sipping from a straw in the ocean. And so if the markets want to do something, the central banks aren't strong enough. And David Malpas, when you had this editorial, you said, "Oh, the Fed should lower rates and then make sure the dollar is strong." Well, you can't do that, right? If you coers rates to be artificially lowered, it's going to be evolved. It's just the dollar. And of course, President Trump um said that, "Oh, he's just fine with with where the dollar is. Everything is is great." uh Besson then came out today and and reiterated the famous words that the US is always interested in a strong dollar policy. Incidentally, the Financial Times rephrased that quote and said best and the US is still interested in a strong dollar currency um policy. And so those are those are interesting nuances, but I'm I'm kind of getting ahead of myself here to to answer your question. Um, I do not know where this is going to lead to tomorrow, but we do have an administration that wants to push growth on every cylinder. Um, wants to leverage the productivity boom. So, we have deficits as far as the eye can see. We're getting a tax refund to push the economy. We're presumably getting a Federal Reserve that's going to play along keeping rates accommodative. We have Europe spending over a trillion in uh infrastructure spending and military ramp up. We have on top this was before um the quote unquote disagreement happened over Greenland um really encouraging Europe to get its act together on defense spending. Um we're talking and and obviously Mark Connie had this quote in his speech in Davo was saying that the power of value is being superseded by the value of power. uh German Chancellor Meritz doubled down and said we got the message um and we will rearm and uh and so to me that sounds like a world where a lot of money is going to be spent >> and [clears throat] and deficits are going to be significant. Note what I didn't mention is that oh my god we have to cut back social spending in the US and Europe maybe other places to to finance all of that. I that I did not hear. And so we did see in Japan the bonds market react to to some adventurous spending ideas of the administration there. So bond vigilantes are starting to wake up. If that were to happen in the US, I I have no idea where this is going to play out. I mean we are at the 10ear yield as we speak at 4.24. Um, the 10-year real yield, and I know nobody knows what real interest rates over 10 years will be, but I look at this measure as a measure of confidence in the Fed is at 1.88%. So, that's been hovering around this level. So, if you look at confidence measures in the Fed, they are quote unquote well contained. They haven't broken out. But if you look at other metrics like the price of gold or silver for that matter, right, it's gone through the roof. And so there are some there are some astounding movements in these markets and the question is is that because of the fundamentals or is that because of speculation in the market? Now [clears throat] of course there are speculators in these markets um and a runup will attract speculators but >> anyway I'll pause here because I don't want to just spot people now. >> Okay. Well, so I don't know if you saw, but I I flashed I flashed and I'll do it again. I'm putting up the current gold and silver futures here on the screen. And yeah, we as we've been talking, gold futures have crested above 5400 an ounce for the first time. It's that's bananas to say, especially what, not even 36 hours since gold hit 5,000 an ounce for the first time. Silver is is very close to an all-time high, which of course it hit just a couple days ago as well. Um, so yes, there's a lot in the soup. I'm sure there's a lot of speculation in here right now, but but how much of this this move that we've seen Axel over the past six, eight months do you think is a loss of confidence in the Fed in the Fed and then in central banks and just, you know, fiscal deficit? You know, any any pretension of or pretense of fiscal constraint going forward? I think it's a loss in confidence in the fiscal sustainability. It is not a loss in confidence in central banks. And the reason I frame it that way is if we had a loss of confidence in central banks, all hell would break loose. We don't see that. If we had a loss of confidence in central banks, long-term inflation expectations would be unhinged. Um, now to take a step back maybe. >> Okay, that's a good point actually. You you can you can get away with mediocre monetary policy if the fiscal side is in order. But if the fiscal side is not in order, even good monetary policy can't save you. We know from Draghi and obviously from other incidents in in monetary history as well that when push comes to shove, central banks will do whatever it takes. Mhm. >> Now, what Kevin Walsh, one of the Fed candidates to to succeed Powell, has said is that the zero interest rate policy literally egged on Congress to engage in excessive spending. Um and uh and so in that sense, the Federal Reserve is a is a contributor in that fiscal situation that that we are in. But monetary policy and we can talk about it. We can talk about what we like and dislike about it, but there is no loss of confidence. It doesn't mean I agree to what they do necessarily, but the market continues to have confidence in the Fed's bazooka. Um, and so I I think that's that's factual based on what we see in the markets. Now, obviously the precious metals markets in particular have said, "Hello, hello, hello." It's a bit like a caner in a coal mine that's been kicked out of the coal mine for for for singing off tune and too loud, right? It's it's just it's just saying screaming something is happening. Um and it's of course hiding in plain sight, right? I mean we got 6% plus deficits as far as the eye can see. Um that is that has implications. Um, and if you if you have the floodgates of liquidity open, even with the modestly restrictive policy that the Fed says that they have, you can push asset prices higher or earned, right? I mean, the one thing last year that is notable during this amazing rally precious metals had is equity markets did just fine, right? Historically, more often than not, when when gold does well, equities do poorly. It's one of the reasons you invest in precious metals as insurance, right? To be different >> and clearly precious metals >> alternative asset. Yeah. >> And it dramatically outperformed and but but still usually the kind of the the juxaposition is is one goes up one goes down. Um and that didn't happen that didn't happen in 2022. Um and of course yet to date right I mean if that said if you look at the well there still some of the Mac 7s are still down yet to date. I I see two of them here on my my screen. Um the others are in meantime mostly flat. Um but um but it's a it's a very interesting world that we're in now. Is it is it based on fundamentals and and or is it something else? I do think that we've had very volatile fiscal policy in the US. If you if you take the executive actions that have happened in the US as as fiscal policy as well and the US economy has held up very well under that better than than most people anticipated. [clears throat] >> Mh. >> Um but there are implications and one of them is that the price of gold is higher right and there are implications that the bond yields have not been coming down and have been stubbornly high. >> Right? um in Japan these are movements the Swiss Frank is up through the roof as well right [clears throat] >> to to your point though and I think this is a really interesting point is you know a lot of people that are sort of cheering on the whole gold thing uh the gold the gold bull market here the gold rush um is hey this is you know a monetary repricing um everybody is you know giving up on uh fiat dollars this is collapsing in front of our eyes here but But if it were, if if the market truly expected higher inflation from a a rapidly depreciating currency, then you would see these inflation expectation indicators rise, wouldn't you? Wouldn't you see bond we wouldn't see the bond market just holding steady? We would see the bond vigilantes really dramatically. >> This is somewhat This is somewhat what I meant is that I'm shocked that I'm not shocked by a 200 price move in the price of gold. um because it feels normal and uh I don't think we have seen anything yet. If there were a dislocation, these markets would look very very differently, >> right? Um, and so it gets to what what is driving the price of gold or is it is this gold just calling BS on >> I mean we like to put a story on it. Of course we we don't know but it's a I would think that it is more people that are embracing the views that the gold bucks have historically embraced. >> People don't trust bonds as being the diversification safe haven that they have been. Not that gold is a perfect substitute. Not that those investors are putting all their money into gold, but because the precious met precious metals markets are so small, small allocations have a disproportionate impact. >> Right? You have >> Sorry to interrupt, but I want you I want you to include this in your answer. How much of the rise right now or the the drive for that the new capital coming in? How much of that is due to central bank buying? How much of that is due to international buying, especially in Asia, which has been hot for the past couple years? Um, and how much of it is due to the new at the table Western buyer who is saying, you know what, I think I'm going to take some of the money I had in bonds and put it into precious metals. >> Yeah, the short answer is we don't know. Um, because the the numbers from central banks are late. Um, we can't always trust them. And keep in mind that when you talk about central bank bias, we historically talked about the folks who are historically hostile to the US because they were worried about getting their their money confiscate it if they keep it in the US. And so they were they have been trying to look to reallocate. And by the way, they are not looking to impose a gold standard somewhere else. The other countries have as much deficit spending as the US has. Maybe not as much, but significant. Some of them might have more. But the um but we have new players in that, right? I mean, this this aggressive move against the NATO allies gets other countries to think about, well, do they want to keep their reserves in the US? >> Um there's been calls in Germany to repatriate more gold from the US. And they're not going to take all the gold tomorrow and they're not going to sell all the US treasuries tomorrow. But on the margin, those changes in allocations do have an impact. And and so when and the what's somewhat unique about central banks is that they're not very price sensitive. Um the the typical buyer, retail buyer is far more price sensitive. And by the way, it's just to be clear because we talk about all this demand. >> Um whenever there's a transaction, there's a buyer and there's a seller. We tend to forget that sometimes and I don't know whether I mentioned it to you uh when we last met the wholesalers in the US are actually of precious metals are actually not doing great right now and the reason is that a lot of people are handing in their coins and so on the >> they're choking over right now. >> Yeah. The coin dealers are getting a lot of supply which means they they there's little demand of new coins from the mints. Um and and so it's Is that why the mint is is being so stingy right now in its >> That's why there's there's supply shortages on on some of the new coins. Yeah. Because they're not being ordered and and the wholesalers don't want to carry that inventory. >> Okay. But but that's not due to the mint having trouble getting the metal. No metal circulating. >> No, there there is a lot of metal circulating. And so it is a two-way market. And by the way, it's one reason why I don't think we're in I mean obviously the price of silver has gone through the stratosphere. Um but but the we don't have the typical signs of a bubble in the sense that there is a two-way market. There are there is still you had an interview just a few days ago. Most folks who own gold have held gold for a while. >> Um there's a very small percentage of people that is a first-time buyer of of gold. Um, and maybe in your audience and my audience, it's a it's a bit of a biased sample. So, I don't think we can do a completely neutral survey on that topic, but it's it is still also if you look at the holdings, the Bloomberg has a tracks the global holdings of the physical gold ETFs. They exclude China in that. That's a separate story. Um, and we are not at the peak in ounces. We're at peak in the dollar value. The same with the silver ETF. We're at the peak. We're not at the peak in ounces, but we're in a peak at um at market value at at the market value. And just brief comment on on on China. Um China has several precious metals products and the popular ones are based on derivatives. Um there's a silver product that trades at a 40% premium. um and it's it's a they are they there are clear signs of speculation um it's one of the challenges in China that that the investment culture is not so well developed and so people are squeezing into things so that that sort of stuff can create volatility especially when then some people are starting to lose money and then there's a fight to the exit right so I'm I'm not suggesting that the the extreme gains we've had in in silver in particular um are not going to cause some some outside volatility that can also hurt on the downside. >> Okay. Um that's been a topic of great discussion over the past couple of days is are we in some sort of short-term blowoff top. Um you know obviously when we've had price vertical price action like this before in the precious metals the correction has been violent and and not only violent uh to the downside but then you know the precious metal prices were kind of dead money for like a decade or more. Um, so there are people that are wondering, you know, >> yeah, >> that happen again and if so, do I get out now or or you know, >> well, yeah, let me talk about that briefly. Um, of course it can happen and it can happen can happen for any reason or no reason. That said, remember last time that silver got beaten and was dead after 1970s, we had Paul Vulkar come in to impose discipline on the market. Mhm. >> We had Ronald Reagan. He had an expansionary fiscal policy and he had deregulation. So in that sense it's similar from um from from the current administration. But I think that's where the similarities end was clearly and there was a Plaza court as well of course that happened at that time. But um the Reagan was perfectly okay with a tight monetary policy um to break the neck of this stuff. >> Now we got the opposite. We got an administration that's really pushing to creep rates low with the argument that when you have a productivity boom, you can keep rates lower. And to an extent, I agree with that. There's some nuances I have problems with, but that is that's a fair argument, but that is historically not the argument. I mean, in in many ways, right, we have a king of debt, president of the country, and he's going to be in office for another few years. Um and and so um sure it's possible that that we gonna be be whacked with something that's going to kind of put us into new ice age and precious metals. I just don't see where that's coming from. [clears throat] >> So you do think quote unquote it's different this time. >> Well, I'm trying not to use those words, right? And that is that is because I mean it's and I'm so happy that you got rid of your silver coins. Um [laughter] >> I got I've been getting a lot of grief that I did just so you know a lot of people who are unhappy. >> I was very concerned about your mental health while you had those. [laughter] >> Well, they did their job. I can say >> they did their job. Yes. But the the um the the the question is where is the supply and demand coming from kind of you ask where it's changing there are more people looking at that to give you an example and I may have mentioned this to you before we extensively invest in gold miners and so the executives of some of these gold mining companies report to us when they give go on a road show they now have journalists in the Boom. So, fund managers of the big active mutual funds, actively traded ETFs, actively managed ETFs, um, they come in and try to understand the dynamics in the mining sector, which of course it's a little different from from how most of these how they value most companies, but that's big money flowing into a very very small sector. And uh the question is of course always how long will this last and the the thing is the history of of of gold mining is such that we just don't know is the funding window is it open for 3 months or or six years and you can make the argument either way right um and so and with regard to is it different this time well I mean clearly having such massive debts and peace time is different um and if there's any problem or the reaction. We we if we had if we had a major stock market crash, right? We don't want to do the same playbook as the great the Great Depression had. And so we know the playbook of the central banks. Now, it does make a little bit of a difference of who the next Fed share is, but it's a it's a world where we kind of know the parameters of central banks. We are trying to go at full speed. the global order is over. And I I've mentioned this before. Mari said it in the voice, right? Um Alexander, the Finnish president kind of has at the same theme. Now, he tries to preserve it, but the point still is that we don't have this global rules-based order anymore. Everybody is in it for themselves. It's the the strongest is going to prevail. New alliances will be formed and there's going to be a lot of friction along the way. And friction is a very polite way of saying that this could get ugly and expensive, >> right? And to fund this new order, they're going to print. [laughter] >> Unless they're going to come to their sensors and say that the biggest threat to to peace is deficits. Um, and because if you don't have sustainable deficits, you can't afford your defense. But no, nobody's saying that right now. >> That is not the that is not what I hear out of Washington or or any any capital these days in the world. >> Yeah. Okay. So, actually, let me um just in the interest of time, let me let me let me take us to a few other topics. Real quick though, a couple quick things. One, um thank you HCH for reposting the stream. Folks, if you know how to repost the stream, please do so we can get other folks involved in the discussion here. Um I do want to try to get to at least a few user questions before we're done here, Axel. Um but a couple couple questions before that. Um before we hop off the just the dynamics of the Fed here. Um you know I recall Ron Paul I had the privilege of interviewing him a couple of times in years past and he would always tell a story about meeting with Paul Vulker and having Vulker several times during the meeting turn to an aid and say where's the gold price? Right? It was something that he looked at really closely because it it was a mirror toward the dollar, right? It was it was sort of a confidence mirror, right? And a lot of people think that that that attitude had maybe persisted long past Vulkar um when people were frustrated thinking that gold's being suppressed or silver's being price is being suppressed or whatever. Right? Right now, it kind of seems like the administration or or the existing powers that we have right now kind of just said, "I don't care. let gold do what it wants. We're going to do our own thing. >> The only person who even understands gold is is Bessent, the Treasury Secretary. Um, >> who likes it, by the way. >> Yes. But the uh and he might be scratching his head what's happening here, but the and that's probably why he came out today and said the US reiterated. >> There we go. Um, so he must be doing fine. But um I've had the the honor of meeting Vulca and but the I've engaged several of the Fed officials both present and former and uh they don't pay attention to gold. >> Um they could care less about it. Um they care about they are dual mandate, right? And so they'll have some general something general that they can say about it, but it's they're not they're not looking at that. Um it it doesn't go into the models. it doesn't go into their thinking. Um, it's a sideshow and and for what it's worth, it's a sideshow for most people, right? I I talked to a journalist earlier this week and uh she wanted to know about fund flows and this and that and at some point to make the point that there is no there is no drive by retail to get into gold. I asked the journalist whether whether she owned any gold and she was surprised. asked her a question and then she said no and chuckled and said well exactly that's how most [clears throat] people would answer that question right it just doesn't come to mind it's something foreign on average I believe the percent of holding on in the average portfolio is I 1% 2% maybe I don't even think it's I think it's probably still lower than that um but that's average right if you look at on a median basis median person owns zero right um so it's still heavily underowned to totally get all that. Hey, real quick, since you mentioned that you met Vulker, you're a pretty tall guy, actually. I mean, we're about the same height. You did you feel pretty tiny next to him? >> I That's for those who are on this this uh chat here that are tall, they they can relate to this. If you meet if you're tall and meet somebody who's taller than you are, it's really odd, right? Because we we're used to talking like this and if we have to talk like this, it's [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. And he wasn't just an inch or two taller than you. He was he was about six inch. >> I get some practice. My I I'm 6'4 or 63 and a half as I have to be more precise. Uh my my son is over an inch taller so I get a little bit of that. >> A little bit. [laughter] >> But I think Vulker was what, like 67, 68, something like that. >> Okay. Um so folks, I am going to get to minors and then I'll get to your questions. Um, but real quick, um, let's get to, um, I do want to talk about the candidates for replacing PAL. We don't have to spend a ton of time on it, but I just like to get a sense of your your current, um, guesstimate of who you think might take it and whether you like them or not. Um, but first, uh, the Fed remains under fire politically, right? I mean, there is an active lawsuit by the Department of Justice against PAL. Um, love to hear any thoughts, reaction you have to that or whatever. But let me ask you this question, why do it, right? I mean, Pal, as you said, he's kind of a lame duck at this point and he's out of there in just a couple months. Like, why rock the boat so dramatically here? Because this cracks open the whole question of Fed independence and all that stuff, right? Is there a valid rationale for doing it now? First of all, um, while we talk, if you can put up a live web page, pull up the Poly Market web page on the next Fed share. Um, and that that is interesting. So, the I published a newsletter just a few days ago. You can find it at mercsights.com where I talked about the the importance of Fed independence. And I to and I I I mentioned to you and let me just reiterate it because I so I think it's so important. The monetary policy is about setting interest rates about money supply about credit in the in the society. Monetary policy is not about allocating that credit to specific sectors of the economy. That is fiscal policy. When the Federal Reserve ve from monetary policy into fiscal policy, surprise surprise, they're getting backlash because then elected officials will want to have a say. And these ivory tower academics at the Fed have done that since the financial crisis. When you buy mortgage back securities, [clears throat] that is fiscal policy. It is not monetary policy because you're putting money into the sector the real estate sector and the the extreme cases of course during the pandemic giving direct loans I think also paying interest on reserves is a terrible idea because you're literally paying tens of billions to banks and inviting political scrutiny and so the the backlash that the Fed is getting is in the context of that. Now the reason why Fed independence is important is because it makes monetary policy cheaper. The cost I we talked about how the markets are well behaved, how inflation expectations are anchored. Well, you can throw that out of the window if Fed independence is lost. And the reason is that Fed independence is so important because the Federal Reserve can print an infinite amount of money. And so if Congress gets its hands on that printing press, >> right, >> all hell breaks loose. And so if you have a credible interference, not just if a president complains about the Fed, almost every president in history has done that since the Fed has been created, but if you have credible interference, then that is dangerous in the sense that it can disrupt that. Now, none of this means that I agree to many things that have happened at the Fed. And by the way, Bessent rightfully elicited a laundry list of things that have happened at the Fed and then said if that happened in any any company, the CEO would have been fired. >> Um, I agree with that. Um, maybe not every numerous that he said, but the in that sense Paul lame duck is going to be out anyway, but that is why the Supreme Court case is so important. Now the context here is that Congress has the power to control money and regulate money not the executive. And that is why the for the monetary function it should be Congress that impeaches a governor or president rather than the executive removing. Now reality is a little bit more muddy than than practice because the Federal Reserve has several functions that are more administrative in nature. Think about much of the bank supervision where you can make the argument that yes it's they should serve at the pressure of the of the pleasure of the president. So in an ideal world you should separate these functions and monetary policy should be set by somebody who can only be impeached and the president can fire folks on the other end. Now, the Supreme Court has the pleasure of sorting out dismiss. >> Correct. Now, that's mostly around Lisa Cook, though, right? >> Yeah. Yes. But it's of course it's like taking it a step at the time, right? >> No. No. Totally. I I'm Yeah. I I'm >> He's not going to fire off Powell before the term is up. That's that's uh that's posturing. It makes no sense. >> Okay. Yeah. And I just don't even know why they let it get to this stage when there's a couple months left. because we have a president who likes to to to drive the news cycle, >> right? I mean, why do you think we we have such a hoo-ha about invading in Greenland when the the US has military bases and free access there already for everything? Why? I mean, the Wall Street Journal, the great article that it's a money pit. Um, every every Greenlander gets subsidized by 20,000. Now, the argument that, hey, if you want to do things properly, you might as well own it. I get that. But they can always seize that if there's a war right there. It's >> You think it's maybe more of an intentional smokec screen? Let's get everybody just focused on this while I do >> Well, and and then you have a deal and everything is happy. It's it's a particular style. I mean, the the >> What deal are they But what deal are they looking for with the Fed? Like that's what I don't get. Like I just don't >> They want They want lower rates at the Fed. Um and they want everybody to be happy. >> So this is just pressure. This is just a pressure tactic. >> This is a pressure tactic. Yes. Okay. Yes. >> Okay. All right. That makes sense. So, so, um, and we can expand on it, but let's talk about the the next fetch here. The reason I asked you to pull up this this this live feed, and I don't know whether you can briefly show it as we are talking exactly, the Rick Reer here has has fallen down. Um, and Kevin Walsh is also down from where we had been. Chris Waller having descented is slightly up. Um, but, um, Rick Rita was at I think at at 45% earlier today. And to to just for those who who don't eat those names for breakfast, um I have been talking about how the the um candidates for the Fed were all somewhat reasonable and all they they they different in style and I have my preference. When I made those statements, I did not have Rick Rita in in mind because at the time he was so far down in the likelihood that it wasn't the case. >> And first and as those who have listened to you with me before know, I have a strong preference for Kevin Walsh. And the reason is that he has for 15 years be consistent in criticizing the Fed's transgressions. He is the only one who would get the Fed out of politics. That is the right thing for the country. It's the right thing for monetary policy to put some sense into the Fed, right? Um everything beyond that. and he rightfully says, "Well, the Fed's job is really not to mess it up." Um, you don't need and and he he he's quoted conversations with Fulka, not that FA would look at the gold price, but um but he would he would say, "Well, what changes inflation from 1 to 2% and when this was 30, 40, 50 years ago and and um Kevin would tell Kevin Walsh would tell Paul Vulka, oh, it's up 1%. No, it's up 50%." Right? looking at from this point of view but but making it clear that Fed policy is not about getting the second decimal right getting the big picture right. Rick Reer he um believes first of all he believes that raising inflation raising interest rates is not the right tool to fight inflation. He says it only has an impact on housing um and and the um and the poor inflation. Doesn't really have much of an impact otherwise. But he implies that he might want to use it for those. And he has said he would use the balance sheet um more proactively. And while he hasn't specified exactly what that is, those are the sort of things that get the Fed more into politics. Mhm. >> Now, he's all in the supply side and he would lower rates and let the economy run run hot. The other candidates would somewhat do the same, but for different motivations, different reasons. Um Kevin Walsh, by the way, is on the productivity bandwagon. Chris Waller, who desented today, he is um he is kind of an independent spirit who has been right on many calls. He um he warned about the inflationary push of um of the of the of what happened during the the pandemic and was the first one to go against the stream. So he can hold his own. The caution I have with Chris Waller is I either he's extremely diplomatic but I haven't seen him have thought leadership on changing the way that the Fed operates. Kevin Walsh had said we got to do an analysis of what went wrong during the pandemic. We got to change the communication strategy. We got to do all these things. So while Chris Waller for the time being agrees with the administration, um he is not going to institute any reform. Um but he is the the more prudent choice than a Rick Rita who would who would really be kind of hope I mean if let's put it this way the day that Rick Rita went up in the prediction market to to go above Kevin Walsh the price of gold soared. Now is that correlation or causation? Mhm. >> Um I don't know and obviously today the price of gold is up as well and Rick Rita is is falling somewhat but um and so when has to be a little careful in in putting a storyline into that and and by the way as you may have noticed I'm not even talking about Kevin Hasset because he does appear to be out of the race. >> Yeah. Do you do you think he has been taken out by Trump saying I need to >> I think so. I think so. I think so. It's a um Kevin Kevin Hasset. He he is um he's like Rick Rita. he is far more he's open in communicating his thoughts. Um he seems to have a blast by the way um in his job and he he and I I use that term intentionally. He would have a blast being at the Fed and have fun rocking the boat. Um and uh and it's it's just yeah it would be a Trumpian style I suppose a little bit. Um, let's keep in mind that he needs to get everybody on board and it's just one voice there at the Fed, whatever it's going to be. >> So, some people see Reer and see, you know, he's from Black Rockck and they just think putting the fox in the house in the in the hen house. What would you say to that concern? >> Those we used to I think it is having people with B that I don't like Rita as a fetch but for other reasons. This is the least of my concerns. He oversees three trillion in fixed income which means that and most of the stuff is index based. So it's not like he decides on every security that's in the portfolio and everywhere but um but it means that he and he is the chief investment officer. So I don't know exactly how much administrative experience he has because being the fed share is like being the cat herder and chief and you need to hurt academics. So he has no experience with academics. has no experience with the government bureaucracy. But we've had you used to have treasury secretaries that all came from Goldman Sachs and then it became unpopular because people started to to to not like the big banks. But those guys had experience. They knew what they were doing. I much rather have somebody who knows what a bond is um in practice, not just out of a textbook. And so that is that is something. So I'm not in that camp, but I I get it. people like to batmouth everybody for whatever reason. Well, I I think the fear is, well, he'll just manipulate monetary policy to be favorable to assets because he's got all those, you know, interests there. But, >> well, he is clearly he's clearly in the in the in the manipulative camp in the sense that he wants to use the balance sheet for more things. And the context here is that Ben Bernani, he wrote this book during the pandemic where he said the toolbox that he created that he was so proud of is the baseline. And and so there is this school of thought and by the way um Rita has not articulated this explicitly but I'm worried that he is in that camp that you can micromanage the economy and of course when you do that >> you're you're preventing failure and while that may sound nice for the day an economy grows through creative destruction you need to allow failure and there Kevin Walsh he is sometimes being criticized be for being a bit more of a Reagan Republican type of guy. Um, but he just focuses on the basics and needs the Fed to go ba back to basics. That's a good thing, >> which is what when Besson talks and he's chairing the search, it kind of sounds like that's what he wants, right? He wants the Fed to reduce its mission creep, right? Um, it's gain of function. >> Absolutely. Now, his his boss is going to make the final call, though. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay, we got to move on from this just given time. Um, so we're going to get to the miners. Um, and Axel, you run a sizable mining fund. Um, so you're a great guy to talk to about this. Um, you know, it's not like they haven't done nothing, although maybe silver miners, different story, but let's just sort of start with with the question here. >> Why has gold risen faster than the miners of late? Um, and then maybe particularly let's talk about silver because over the past year, >> silver and the silver mining, you know, at least the ETF, they're even, Stephen. Like we've seen almost no leverage effect there. >> Yeah. I mean to just give you an update because you know those numbers. Um as of last night, this is before today's up move, we managed a little over 4.6 billion. >> And uh and uh the mining fund is currently over 1.6 billion. Um when we took that on it was uh 230 million in 2019. And I don't want to mention any names here because I don't want to get into too many compliance areas, but that's a sign of how the space has evolved, right? Um, >> sorry, what? Sorry to interrupt, but but two years ago, how much AUM was in the mining fund? >> Um, 300 million. >> Okay. So, it shows you how >> 300 million to 500 million for a while. Yeah, we got to 500 million and and we've gotten >> I mean, I know you've had new capital come in, but a lot of that is just Actually, the mining fund is a closed end fund. It's no no new capital. >> Oh, okay. So, there you go. >> Yep. Yep. No new capital. It's all internal performance. Um and there were dividends and share buybacks. The um well, these things don't always move in tandem, right? And uh and especially one of the challenges in the mining side is how do you value that gold? And not just for the investor, but also for the guys operating it, right? you if you want to invest in them and give them money for funding. Well, one of the things that's happened now in in some deals is that this is the price that's being paid. But if the average price of gold or silver remains above the certain level for the next whatever two years then supplementary payments are due because the the buyers of these assets will obviously negotiate and saying hey we don't know whether this is a bubble or not and so we'll apply whatever $3,000 worth of gold not $5,000 >> and and so that's a and It's not uncommon that that when you have a short-term runup that the miners are not not moving quite as fast. And it's of course and the the ounce in the ground is is is valued far more conservatively than it has been in the past. Um and some of that is a good thing. You don't want that to happen too quickly. And for what it's worth then if your opinion is that these precious metals are going to stick around for that price, then there's good value in these mining companies. Of course, the the the one thing kind of since we're running short of time like to mention is that historically when you have prices of precious metals run high, you have other cost factors also move higher. You have commodity prices move higher. You have the cost of labor move higher. Commod energy is >> 20 25% of of mining production many times, right? Um, you have governments that want to have higher taxes. What is really noteworthy about the rally we've had is energy prices are very contained. >> Yes, labor costs are up, but not dramatically so. With some exceptions, um, governments have been well behaved and not demanding too much. And so, this modern expansion has been going through the bottom line. And and in the in the mining sector, right, the question is gold versus minor. Well, within the mining sector, sometimes the money moves to the majors, sometimes it moves to the junior companies. Um, historically in in a rally, the first money first gets to the most liquid stocks and then with an amplified impact to the more junior companies. Um, there are and then the the big miners have had some issues because they underinvested. Then they got involved in these huge copper gold projects. Um, they seem to be getting their act together. So there there are movements within the sector based on fundamentals that make make sense. And then there's been some profit taking. If I if I look at um I see a silver company today that's uh that's down right with the price of silver up substantially. That can happen right because there's been a big runup and so there's been substantial volatility and uh that's yeah that's part of that's part of what's happen. Let let me get to what I think is the spirit of what most folks are wondering here, which is um do the miners look particularly attractively positioned right now um because the metals have moved so far so fast and are continuing to but the miners haven't kept pace with their traditional leveraged performance as as they have in in past times. So, is is there a catch-up awaiting us here? As long as the precious metals prices don't correct too hard in the near term. >> Well, what I can say is that I'm on public record that I have not sold any of my gold mining positions. >> Mhm. >> Um even though they've had they've had a very very significant runup. >> Okay. >> Um you can see that in my public filings and >> I will interpret as continued optimism. You don't have to say those words, but I will interpret that. And in December, I did sell a little bit of gold. I don't make any filings on that. Um, and the reason was that I anticipated a Kevin Walsh Fed chair. >> And while I, as I indicated before, I don't think the Fed can change fiscal policy, all else equal, there might be a little bit of a headwind. Now, mind you, has had a substantial run up since then. I'm not I'm not crying because I have made plenty of money on those other things that I still hold and I hold plenty of gold, more than I think uh most people do. Um but gold and gold miners I hold more than most people do. Uh and so it's a but I'm not going to blame anybody for taking profits here, taking chips off the table. It may be the prudent thing to do to to kind of to reassess your risk exposure. That said, um if it is correct that this is a canary in a coal mine that we have an administration that wants to grow at any cost, if we don't get fiscal discipline, if we get a ramp up in infrastructure and military spending, then there are very good reasons to to to to hold them. And even if precious metals came down significantly, the margins would still be quite dramatic. Yeah. >> Right. And so I basically and I at the end of the day >> I look at investing much more in terms of risk than anything else. >> Can you afford to take that risk and I don't think I need to tell anybody who's ever invest in gold miners that that space is notoriously volatile. >> Y >> and so people need to think about can they stomach that risk. Um, I heard the other day, and that's kind of one more of a red flag. I I met somebody at the at a gas station and uh he said he convinced his brother to sell his S&P stocks and buy physical silver. So, that to me is more of a red flag, right? >> Exactly. So, that is the sort of thing. Whoops. Maybe maybe maybe um there there is some caution. Um but based on the fundamentals on the mining side, I um I'm quite quite positively inclined. >> All right. So, just just to note, Axel, um our mutual friend, uh the coin dealer who lives near you. I think you know who I'm talking about. Um I I I've been surveying several different coin dealers right now, and I talked to him last night at length. Um, he says it's the busiest he's ever been in his 60-year career in the industry in terms I think you can give his name. He he knows an amazing amount of numismatics. Um, if anybody is interested in rare coins, as you point out, he's been in the coin business for for many decades. He likes to hold inventory. Um, and uh he can make unusual requests happen. I've seen it happen in practice. And then neither you I get any benefit of of him or anybody, but they can reach out to you or me and if somebody's looking for that and there are plenty of reputable coin deals, but um but um but yes, >> well he he's been around for a long time. He's actually helped launch a lot of big brands like the ATMEX guys. He helped them get started. Um he's he's kind of a eminence gre in in the uh in the industry. But anyways, he he said this is the busiest he's ever been. Um, right now it is primarily sellers, um, notably of silver. Um, so, uh, we'll see. And look, I'm I'm I've been ringing a warning bell. >> By the way, one of the things I mean, right now, he might just do anything. But one of the things he does during quieter periods is that when people inherit gold, they don't know what to do with it. They bring it to him. And then throughout the year he travels to the countries of origin where he gets the precious metals from because usually those coins are worth more. People value them more highly in those in those native countries. He goes to Hong Kong or or India or wherever it might be and sells them there. Um and so that is he makes money the good oldfashioned way by by traveling and and selling the coins >> and great customer service. So, um, again, not here necessarily to tout his his wares, but obviously like you, huge fan of him. Um, my point being is just what I'm hearing so far from the trenches is not, hey, everybody's coming out of the woodwork to buy because they got a shoe shine boy tip. It's more people who have owned precious metals and said, hey, look, I just got a, you know, 4x on my silver. I'm going to take some off the table. Um or it's wow, you know, let me grab grandma's sober and just, you know, try to cash in on it, right? Um and look, Robert, like you and I and many folks I've talked to over the recent week, totally open to the fact that there could be a pretty painful pullback here at some point in time, but it doesn't to him, like you, he doesn't necessarily fear that we're going to go back to like a 1980 or or 2011, you know, blowoff top bust and and have it be a nuclear winter for a while. And again, right now it just doesn't seem yet at least that the shoe shine boys um are driving or or modern version, the gas station guys are driving people to buy. >> I mean, one way to look at it is that gold tends to drive to the people that can afford to hold it. It moves towards the small hand to to the to the strong hands, right? And and so it moves to the coin dealer because people want to have cash. I'm not selling my miners because I can afford the risk to hold them, >> right? >> And I at some point I might, right? But um for the time being I I have I'm I actually there's a I sold a tiny position on something for for tax reasons, but um somewhere but um so I can't say I haven't sold anything. >> [laughter] >> Um, so, so Rick Rule very publicly caught folks's attention over the past week or so because he says he sold a big chunk of his physical silver and then he used the proceeds to derisk a little bit. He took half of the proceeds, diversified in other Rick Rule type assets that he thinks are unloved right now, but but will hopefully catch a bid at some point. Um, and then took the remaining 50% of the proceeds and put them into silver miners. Would would you do you feel similarly that right now the upside favors the miners versus the metal? >> Yes, except there are not many good silver miners around to put the money in. Um obviously all this there there even a minor and I'm not going to name the company that used to produce silver has been caught in the updraft. Um and and so really [laughter] >> like they're getting the silver halo even though they don't m anymore. >> Yeah. So that can happen as well which is a um but um there are obviously there are some silver companies that do well and we own some of them um but it's not that e silver tends to be a byproduct um and so it tends to be not the primary commodity and uh and so one has to be a little bit careful how one deploys the money there. >> Okay. All right. Well look um Axel I'm going to wrap it up here. Thank you so much for joining us again, giving us all your time and expertise um both on the Fed and on precious metals. You're a great twofer like that. Um folks, please do me a favor. Um you know, I always ask this, but I always love, you know, getting the confirmation from you all. Um, if you enjoy and value having Axel coming on um to do these live reaction videos with me um after every Fed uh or FOMC release and and Fed chair presser, please let me know because I want to do more of the things you want and less of the things [clears throat] you don't want. Please also thank Axel for continuing to do this and coming on and doing again yet another great job today. Um, and Axel, as long as folks want, which I'm guessing based on past results, it's going to be forever. Um, you know, just want to thank you for being willing to come on and do this with us in the future every time we've got a Fed update >> when it's going to get I mean, today was a snoozer, but we're going to get pretty soon into into with the new Fed shares. And by by the way, just as a reminder, the reason we care about the Fed is because they control the bazooka. They control the reference of the risky rate. they are so significant and in charge of inflation expectations. Obviously, debt spending drives inflation more than anything. But that's why we do that because it's an important reference point for for our investments. >> Yeah. All right. Well, look everybody, please thank Axel by hitting that like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below and that little bell icon right next to it if you haven't already. Axel, for folks who want to follow you and your work in between now and your next appearance, where should they go? mercinvestments.com is the website. Um, and Twitter I'm axelmer and I'm on Substack now most recently. You get there from mercinvestments.com but mercinsits.com um but um you can get there from mercinvestments.com just the latest newsletter is is >> is going there. Yes, I'm trying to move with the times and >> good publish. I I don't yet have a a little um banner here for merkinsights.com, but I'll get that ready for next time. Um folks, just a reminder too of two things. Um, one, uh, if you, uh, weren't aware of it or are late to the game and and want to increase your exposure to silver, um, Andy Shechman, the CEO of Miles Franklin, which is the endorsed precious metals um, solutions partner for Thoughtful Money, is continuing to offer um, his uh, special offer to this audience of being able to buy junk silver from uh, his business for I think it's 99 cents above spot. Um, so if you want to take advantage of that, go to thoughtfulmoney.com/bygold. And you know, if you've got precious metals questions or need above and beyond just that junk silver offer, uh, Andy and his team are totally happy to answer any of those questions and help you in any way they can, again, just go to that same URL. And then last, if you want to um get some help from a professional financial advisor in terms of just trying to uh figure out um you know what what type of exposure should I have to precious metals uh in what form should I hold them? Metals, paper ETFs, miners, etc. Um if you if you're sitting on big gains and have questions about how to hedge them uh you know all these questions generally are unique to each of us based upon our own personal situations our own goals risk tolerance tax exposure etc. So highly recommend that you get that advice from a good financial adviser who's quite experienced in the precious metals market. If you've got a good one who's advising you on that great work with them but if not consider scheduling a free consultation with one of the financial adviserss that thoughtful money endorses. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. So to do that, just fill out the very short form right there at thoughtfulmoney.com. Only takes you a couple seconds to fill out the form. These consultations are totally free. There's no commitments involved. It's just a service they offer to be as helpful as possible. Axel, thanks so much, buddy. As usual, I'm going to give you the last word here. Again, somewhat of a snoozer of a press conference, but still obviously a lot to talk about, whether it's the Fed, whether it's gold, whether it's just the markets in general. Do you have any parting bits of counsel for today's audience? Well, fasten your seat belt and look in the market at the markets in terms of risk more than terms of opportunity, especially when things are going as well as they have been. >> Okay. Yeah. Okay, that makes sense. Don't get too caught up in the FOMO. Don't forget to play defense while you're playing offense. >> All right, my friend. Thanks so much, Axel. Very much appreciate this. Obviously, the comments coming in here, um, super supportive of you and super grateful. Thank you so much. So, Axel, I'll see you again next time. and everybody else. Thanks so much for watching.