| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
Alpine Capital believes we are entering AI 2.0, where artificial intelligence creates global abundance but commoditizes software, threatening traditional SaaS moats. The investment bottleneck has shifted from GPUs to physical infrastructure, driving a re-industrialization revolution requiring $85 trillion over 15 years. Silver delivered 136% returns in 2025 as markets priced in material requirements, with copper expected to follow. The firm is tactically shifting toward power chain companies and industrial metals while moving neutral/bearish on software incumbents. Emerging markets surged on dollar weakness and raw material demand, though long-term sustainability remains questionable due to socialist policies. The Fed is expected to become more dovish with Powell's successor, creating equity tailwinds. Despite high valuations and expected mid-term election volatility in 2026, the firm remains extremely optimistic based on 15% S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts driven by AI productivity gains. Banking sector strength supports their view that traditional bear markets are unlikely.
The world is transitioning from a software-driven digital revolution to a physical re-industrialization revolution, where AI 2.0 creates global abundance but shifts bottlenecks from digital to physical infrastructure, creating massive investment opportunities in power generation, industrial metals, and AI factory buildout.
The firm remains extremely optimistic for 2026 despite expecting mid-term election volatility. They anticipate the S&P 500 could match 15% earnings growth at best or consolidate sideways at worst. Corporate profit margins are expected on long-term upward trajectory supported by labor productivity gains. The banking sector hitting all-time highs supports their view that traditional bear markets don't occur when banks perform well.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, commodities, Copper, emerging markets, Federal Reserve, infrastructure, Silver, technology | - | The firm believes we are entering AI 2.0, a period where artificial intelligence fosters global abundance and increases productivity. However, they see software being commoditized… |
| Oct 28 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence Spending, Capital Expenditure, Long Term Discipline, Mega Cap Dominance, Monetary Easing | - | The report highlights a supportive macro backdrop driven by the Federal Reserves pivot toward rate cuts and resilient global growth. Alpine argues AI spending is… |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | LRCX, MU, V | Artificial Intelligence, dollar weakness, Market Discipline, Policy Volatility, Semiconductor Demand | - | The letter discusses sharp market volatility triggered by U.S. tariff announcements followed by a rapid recovery as trade tensions eased and investor confidence returned. Alpine… |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Capital discipline, dollar weakness, Global Liquidity, Policy Volatility | - | The letter describes a volatile quarter shaped by U.S. trade policy uncertainty, shifting tariff rhetoric, and renewed debate around U.S. exceptionalism. Alpine maintains conviction in… |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
Data CentersSupply constraints curtailing infrastructure buildout rate, but compute capacity is being used immediately upon coming online. This differs from dot-com bubble when dark fiber was installed ahead of need. Labor, power and land shortages creating bottlenecks. |
Supply Constraints Utilization Bottlenecks Infrastructure | |
Emerging marketsGlobal equities, especially those outside the U.S., powered equity returns. In emerging markets, shares of companies linked to commodities were the strongest performers as commodities rallied. Even after a strong year for international and emerging markets shares, we still see some of the best value in the world in these areas. |
International Commodities Non-US Best Value | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
SilverSilver surged 220% since April 2024, generating powerful sell signal for precious metals. Performance mirrors 1979 parabolic blow-off that marked end of gold bull market. Retail demand peaked with reports of long lines at dealers globally before recent 40% decline from highs. |
Precious Parabolic Retail Blow-off | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Artificial Intelligence |
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Capital Intensity |
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Monetary Policy |
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| 2025 Q2 |
Artificial Intelligence |
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Dollar Cycles |
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VolatilityGlobal FX volatility has declined significantly despite ongoing high geopolitical, policy, economic and market uncertainties. The disconnect between market volatility and perceived risks is visible across most asset classes. Rising volatility can have two-dimensional FX effects depending on the nature of the shock. |
FX volatility Market disconnect Risk perception Volatility shocks Currency correlation | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Artificial Intelligence |
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Dollar Cycles |
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VolatilityGlobal FX volatility has declined significantly despite ongoing high geopolitical, policy, economic and market uncertainties. The disconnect between market volatility and perceived risks is visible across most asset classes. Rising volatility can have two-dimensional FX effects depending on the nature of the shock. |
FX volatility Market disconnect Risk perception Volatility shocks Currency correlation |
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