Michael Oliver: “Bitcoin Is Broken” — Why Silver, Gold & Commodities Aren’t Done
Summary
Silver Bull Market: The guest argues silver remains in an acceleration phase despite a sharp pullback, viewing it as a midpoint stumble within a multi-quarter surge.
Gold Bull Market: Long-term momentum structures for gold remain intact with potential for substantial upside, citing historical eightfold cycle analogs and targets far above current levels.
Commodity Bull Market: The Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken out on long-term momentum, signaling a second leg higher for broad commodities after a large base.
Crude Oil Rally: Oil triggered a momentum breakout without headline catalysts, with an initial move toward the mid-90s seen as plausible and still historically cheap in real terms.
Gold Miners: Miners remain deeply undervalued versus gold (XAU vs. gold), with expectations of significant outperformance once a decade-long relative ceiling decisively breaks.
Bitcoin Downtrend: Bitcoin’s long-term momentum has broken, with a minimum downside path toward 60k discussed and risk of deeper declines highlighted.
U.S. Equities Top: The S&P 500 is viewed as in a topping process that likely makes marginal new highs before a grinding decline, with no immediate crash expected.
Transcript
We view the pullback as being a very sharp but nonevent in terms of changing our outlook. We still think silver is in a rampage. This is what you would call the midpoint stumble. Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthon.comfree. Uh, greetings and welcome to our wealthy on show. My name is Trey Reich and we are here today with Michael Oliver, the proprietor and publisher of the momentum structural analysis report. Uh having been in this business for four decades, I can safely say that Michael's work is the most unique, interesting, and uh truly thought-provoking approach to technical analysis that I've ever read. And I encourage Wealthy on viewers with a deep interest in markets and how they function to give Michael's work a look see. Uh it's not cheap, I would say, but I believe it's well worth it. So, uh, for those who are serious about the trade, uh, I send you in Michael's direction, and I'm sure he'd be happy to share some models of what he does. Uh, boiling things down, Michael's analysis looks past short-term price analysis, which most technical analysis uh, is obsessed with, and focuses on trends in long-term momentum. Uh and I want to start our conversation today by looking back on the wealthy on SCP silver conference which we held on October 23rd at the Shanganger Hotel in Toronto. Uh Michael was one of the two lunchtime keynote speakers and I I need to set the stage for what was going on uh at the time of the conference especially in silver market since it was a silver conference. Uh but in August uh last year, silver was fairly steady at 38 bucks for most of the month and then started a nice advance which ended up peaking on 1017 6 days before the conference at 5450. And especially given uh the amount of attention that the number 50 gets in all analysis of silver over the past decade. You know that was a pretty key level to a breakthrough a week before the conference. By the morning of the conference, silver had back backed off to 4850. uh and I will tell you that without question the background overwhelming mood at the conference was silver had peaked and we missed it by a week. So that was the situation and up to the stage walks Michael and very calmly uh presents his case that Silver was not peing and in fact he used the word explode and I think he used the word explode two or three times uh during the presentation and I remember thinking after hearing Michael speak if there was one thing he was not short of it was confidence. So, as it turns out, he was dead, right? And in fact, eerily so. So, I thought we would start with wealthy on viewers to get a an insight into how Michael works. Why were you so confident at that time? >> Uh, the momentum trend first of the price trend was obviously up as well. Okay. And we were challenging and finally nipped out those $50 what I call idiot highs because they lasted for a half a century. 50 bucks, four bucks, etc. You know, back and forth. Confined like no other market on the planet almost. Gold wasn't confined during 50 years. Neither was copper. Okay. Anyway, so we at the time of that conference 48 bucks. What are we now? We're trading right now as we speak 76. So, oh, terrible. Okay. you know, percentwise, it's a huge gain. Yes, we're well off the high we just saw last month, but at that time, a couple things had already happened. One, we look at the trend of silver and gold in long-term momentum metrics. Like, for example, we measure the monthly price action of silver gold in relation to, let's say, a three-year average or a 36, a three/4er average. These are fairly long-term yard sticks. And we don't just overlay the average. That's not meaningful. Sometimes you can cross those averages and it's who cares. Okay? It's when you plot the bars of price in their relationship to a given moving average. Like is it above it or below it? Okay? And if so, what's the high of the month, low of the month, close of the month in relation to that given moving average? And those averages change, of course, every month on a 36-month, every quarter on a threequarter average. But anyway, you get a different chart when you plot momentum in bar chart form against certain long-term averages. And you see trend structures, the kind of things that an average price chart guy would like. He'd draw a line across a couple highs and say, "Oh, we broke out over that line." Or a floor that you've used two, three times and you break below it, therefore it's all over. It's going down. you know that kind of thing. We do it with momentum almost always when there's a trend shift even shortterm uh intermediate or long term momentum usually will break its structure and indicate the new direction prior to price smacking you in the face and saying oops I'm going down or I'm going up okay so it's a good leading indicator and you can anticipate trend changes especially when you see on momentum a structure structure that just is so clear and used so many times as resistance or as support and usually they don't last forever. I mean you can only use a certain level so many times and finally if you hit it too many times you go through. Okay, that's true with momentum. Anyway, at that point in time, silver on our long-term momentum metrics was already fully positive. In fact, one of our primary entry points was before that was back in, if you'll recall, silver was capped in a range with a high above 35 in late 24 and a high above 35 again in March of 25. confined for there was like a year there where it it twisted and turned at that level and to the downside, a congestion zone, but very wide. The third time that it came back up toward that 3435 level was back in June of last year. Silver still in the mid30s, still in that range, but momentum said, "Uh-uh, you're breaking out." Price had not yet broken out. That would have required getting up to 3550 to blow out those two prior highs on the price chart. But as it approached 35 that that third time, our momentum broke out and we said, "Okay, acceleration phase for silver now commencing." Meaning rather than this two steps forward, one step back process, it's going to be like five steps forward, one step back. Okay? And boom, later in the year, we're at the 50 buck level plus. Okay? challenging the old idiot highs. But then something else happened and that was in November, a month after our conference in Toronto. At that point in time, nothing had changed on the silver price or long-term momentum positives. They were positive already. No big deal. But why is it all of a sudden after the November close, which I think was what in the 70s or something like that, uh, silver broke out versus gold where when you plot the spread chart relationship between an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold. You go back 50 years, you can do that. You'll find that back in the 1980 bull surge in silver, silver was 6 and a half% divide an ounce of silver an ounce of gold of the price of gold. Okay, keep that in mind. And then it dropped back down. And then in that same 50-year price range, in the second surge in that range, which peaked in 2011 at 50 bucks, silver versus gold reached up to 3.1%. Okay. Early last year, silver was at 1% of the price of gold. I mean, you think it's going to free. Okay. Anyway, so during the year last year as we turned up, but especially after that nove at that November close when we plotted that chart, you blew through a ceiling on that spread chart where if you plot each month's close, there was a clear multi-point ceiling that kept stopping all the rallies in silver versus gold. We closed above it in November. And it was at that point we said, "Okay, we're lid is really coming off now." Because silver whenever it does this versus gold, which it did in 79 prior to the explosion in 1980. And it did in late 2010 prior to this explosion again to 50. That spread broke out. And when that broke out, it told you the temper and tone is changing. So what happened since then? Well, we went up to 120 bucks in two months. We went up to 120. Normally, when you see these spread breakouts of silver versus gold, like in that 79 period in the summer 79 or September 2010, it's over the next couple quarters that you see the consequence. Not over two months. It's a massive chart breakout spanning a year or more of resistance where silver just couldn't get up above this level. When you gush through that, you gush and you usually gush for a couple quarters. And yes, in the middle of each of those surges, there is a shin kick that oh gosh, it's all over. This one came a little sooner than we expected. We were frankly expecting a midpoint stumble late this month or early March. Instead of being like in the third month of the six month or so surge, it occurred at the end of the second month, earlier than we expected. So we were wrong in that regard and it was deeper than we expected. But frankly when we look at the depth of that selloff which got down to 7172 you know on Monday the first day of this this month. So we had like a day and a half collapse really it was all a day and a half the whole drop day and a half. Uh we dropped back to the rising threemonth average on silver a level it has not seen since the first half of last year. sort of return to a rising average that is now acted like support. You sometimes you have to return to the mean. You know, three-month average isn't super long term, but it returned there and it tested it again today. So anyway, we view the pullback as being a very sharp but nonevent in terms of changing our outlook. We still think silver is in a rampage. This is what you would call the midpoint stumble. And we what we expect this month to see is silver firm again in February. Probably not see a new high this month. In other words, the January high stands. Okay. True for gold insole. But we see a firming action such that by the end of the month, we're well back up off this low and somewhat approaching the January high. It's in March that I would expect that if after we see that stability action this month that you then resume and March says, "Okay, game on again." And then again, if we're correct in our analysis, and we have multiple reasons for coming up with this observation of the six-month surge, it's not just that one thing. Uh you could see silver reach into the several hundred zone, like three to 500. And that sounds ludicrous. I know. Uh if you want the explanation as to why that's that's sort of a target, I can give it to you. If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest and own physical gold and silver, visit our sister company, hardassetsalliance at hardassetsalliance.com. That's hardassallalliance.com. >> We're going to get there. You just I'll let you through a couple of my questions, but I wasn't going to stop you because it's fun to listen to. >> So, going back to October, >> there were two other things you mentioned that we should look for. There were really four. You mentioned gold stocks versus gold. We'll leave that for later. Gold versus silver, but you also mentioned gold versus the >> and Bitcoin and the Bloomberg commodity index. Now, I don't want to spend too much time back in October, but can you just give us a few words on how the Bitcoin and the Bloomberg commodity index and to a certain degree the relationship to the S&P all worked out as you expected and gave the silver uh move a little bit of >> Yeah. a little more juicy, >> a little more oomph. >> Yeah. Um, and it's these external factors and also we got to watch T- bonds going forward too. But there's external factors. You don't just look at a silver and gold chart. That's a mistake. You got to look at these major external factors because what they're saying often will alter something. You might be thinking about silver like getting negative because of the recent drop. You got to look at certain other things. But as for Bitcoin, okay, it peaked at 128,000. Okay. A couple months ago back in October, November. Okay, as it was making that high and everybody was talking million-dollar Bitcoin, whatever, uh, momentum of Bitcoin, long-term momentum of Bitcoin did not look at all like what the Bitcoin price chart looked like. Instead, the momentum chart looked like a a lamer and lamer advances with each price advance getting to new new highs. The momentum readings kept making lower highs. They were getting more anemic. and they built a floor since 2023 that used it three times at the three quarter moving average. They don't always build a structure at an average, but in this case, they did. The three/arter moving average of Bitcoin. You didn't close below it three times. You traded down to it three separate pullbacks during that price advance. We could tell you were going to break it this time. Sure enough, we broke it a couple months ago. our our trigger levels were 107 104 area. Okay. >> And as soon as it broke 107, it fell apart just as you >> it dropped down, you know, into the low 80s. Okay. Right. >> And u we argued though that pause that we saw couple month pause with a rally up into the upper 90s. Okay. So a lot of people felt like, oh boy, it's good. We said you're going to have a congestive pause. Don't don't get deceived by it. probably at your minimum going to 60,000. Well, the last few days we got down to like 66,000 today as we're speaking. Okay, so we're getting there. And I'm not saying that's going to be a bottom or a buy point. I'm saying that's like a minimum downside target. You may go to 20,000 for all I know. You've blown long-term momentum structure on Bitcoin, and you did it only a few months ago. So, it's not like a a breakout that's gone for a full year and exhausted. It's fresh. >> So, this is a broken asset. >> And I know a lot of people are hurting right now. Not not just financially, but you know, conceptually, I didn't think this would happen. What's reality now? Okay, that's one issue. Um, and that that have impact I think probably on some financial connections, some corporations that are now involved in Bitcoin that five years ago had no relationship to what happened there. Now they have a financial uh oh it's a shin kick or a gut kick for them what's going on. >> You're talking about the companies that bought Bitcoin in their treasuries. Correct. >> Yeah. And even Visa allowed Bitcoin to some extent be used in in payments and so forth. Okay. Yeah. It it got entrenched in a lot of places that now could be feeling the gut kick. Okay. So it's bigger than just Bitcoin. >> Um >> and then Bloomberg commodity >> Bloomberg. Yeah. The Bloomberg commodity index made its high in at 140 price level after making a bare low under 60 in 2020. It rallied into early 2022 to 140. So more than a doubling, but even then it was like half the price of what it had been in 2008. Okay. So yeah, a nice big rally, but it was still underpriced versus its own history. Then it pulled back under 100 and labored on either side of 100 on the Bloomberg commodity index. About a 50% pullback of that bull surge. Okay. For several years, 23, 24, 25. In October of last year, it broke out on momentum above our trigger level, which was 10650. It's since right now it's trading around 11718. Okay. So, it's gone up, not exploded, no headlines. It's just worked its way higher. Few people are noticing in in components within the Bloomberg are very important because they impact the average guy on the street. Trump says he's going to keep gasoline down. Right. Okay. We broke out via our long-term metrics on crude oil last month. I suspect that the consequence of that, the initial consequence of that over a couple quarters maybe or maybe even one quarter will be to get back up into the 90s. You say, "Well, that's a 50% move. Big deal." Actually, it's not. You were 30 in 2022. Before that, you'd been 140 oil. So getting back into the 90s is no great chart achievement but it's a 50% boost in gasoline prices which is going to hit a lot of people in the face and also wheat broke out over a massive momentum ceiling that we had defined. So it's now engaged. So you got a problem here. You've got a major lowpriced asset category, historically low in its own price levels, prior price levels, and low in relation to the S&P and low in relation to almost anything. It's cheap and it's saying, "I'm going up now. It's joining gold." Now, why would you have the commodity complex freshly join on the coattails of the monetary metals and think that the monetary metals have just topped when commodities are just now joining in? Think about that. Okay? It doesn't make sense. Okay. Anyway, I think the Bloomberg is now a very positive place to be or commodities and commodity related stocks, oil stocks, grain related fertilizer, base metal miners, things like that are a safe and beneficial place to be probably for several years >> compared to the stock market. Anyway, so another big category. So before we come to the present and you mentioned oil, we're going to get there. >> I thought we could take a break because I want you to try to give uh viewers an understanding of what you do differently. And so I wrote down four terms. I wrote down long-term structural analysis, spreads, and momentum. >> Yeah. >> And not that you want to give us, you know, your secret sauce. That's fine. Yeah. Yeah. >> But long term, I think we understand you don't look at, you know, weekly or daily price patterns and make trading decisions. I think you're at the opposite end of the spectrum. But those other three structures, spreads, and momentum, could you just give us a few sentences on each one and how it works? >> The notion of momentum analysis today, the popular one is to look at some wet noodle indicators. And literally, they look like wet noodles. They do this, you know, RSI, MACD, things like that that are free on your quote screen, okay? They they indicate, well, I'm overbought. Oh, I'm oversold or they bounce around like crazy. >> Yeah. They don't have structures. They just sort of loop. They're wet noodles. Okay. And sometimes they have validity. There's no question. I'm not not going to doubt them. Then other times they they just don't. Okay? Like you can get a market like silver's been overbought. Uh back in the 79 to 80 move for example, you would have missed the entire move had you looked at RSI, monthly RSI. It got overbought and stayed there for a year above 80 on RSI. You would have missed the entire bull move if you'd gotten out. First time it got overbought. Okay. Structure. Again, we plot bars, monthly high, low, close, but in relationship to what percent above, what percent below or how many points above, how many points below a given moving average. And when you plot it as an oscillator in relation to that mean, might be a three-year average or three three/4er average, a threemonth average, you plot it versus these various means and you'll get a chart that looks different from the price chart. same high low monthly bars, but instead of just based on where it is in relation to the US dollar, which itself is not a a fixed yard stick anyway, it's a piece of rubber. Okay? But when you plot it versus its own moving averages, long-term down to intermediate term, even short term, you'll get an oscillator that has it's a bar chart oscillator, but it doesn't always reflect what the price chart shows. The price may say, "Look, I just made a new high." And you look at momentum and it says, "Uh-uh, I'm making a new high." That's a hint sometimes. Uh, but what we look for is structure where, and by structure, it's simple. It's what the price guys look at. They draw uptrends. They draw flat lines where the price keeps hitting this line or keeps hitting the same floor and they got a structure. We do the same thing with momentum. But momentum will often develop the structure when price hasn't. And momentum will say, gosh, I just blew through a triple bottom and price doesn't even show that. It shows rising lows, let's say. But momentum said, I just blew a major structure. That will usually happen before price chart smacks you in the face and says, "Oops, I broke something." Okay, so that's what we mean by structure. >> Okay. And before we leave structure, I had to read this recent report that you sent me three times >> to sort of get a feel for your language. It's a little different. I'm not familiar with all the terms and definitely the way you approach it. One of the things that you say is this and this happened, but there was no structure there. >> Is that because people like me don't have your momentum work? >> Yeah. >> So, we don't see the structure. >> Yeah. that you see like you're seeing a different reality. Is that fair? >> That's right. Yeah. So, like I no doubt everybody's impressed or scared by the monthly drop you had last the tail end of last month. Uh which so far basically ceased then by the way, but a horrible looking candle, big reversal. It looks terrible. Okay. uh when you go to u a momentum chart and you look at let's say annual momentum or quarterly momentum where you're plotting these monthly bars against these long-term averages and you plot you're looking for structure like is there a major uptrend line that I'm breaking or is there a floor? No. In neither case does that break even approach any structure that you could consider valid as something oops I don't want to break it. >> Okay. There's not even any structure nearby. And in fact, in the case of annual momentum of gold and silver, they haven't even developed structure to break. What does that mean? What it means is usually before you top gold or bottom gold like in 2011 or 2015, you could see annual momentum structure develop a eight point uptrend line that you broke two months after the high in 2011. didn't break it on the price chart, but on momentum, you could go back like three years and there were there was an uptrend that was hit eight times. So, and you look at the price chart, you can't find that trend line. Uh, and similarly at the low in 2015, gold once it collapsed in 13 and 14, it then kept going down into 2015, reaching $1,50, but it kept making lower highs, sort of staircasing, but a little more gently. Okay. So, still down. Momentum on the other hand for two years had built a horizontal sideways range with the same highs being hit three times. >> So, you had a ceiling you could see wasn't evident on the price chart. And in February of 2016, 90 bucks off the low at a price of a,000, 1140 after the,50 low. You blew through a multi-year ceiling. It said bull market on again >> based on annual momentum. Since then, nothing has broken on annual momentum that indicates trend breakage. You've had zigzags, but you've not had anything that broke a structure that you could say, "Oh, it's over." And right now, you're not even near anything. You'll develop the structure before you top gold. Does your momentum calculation is it some sort of complicated mathematical formula that you developed or is it something that's just simple com comparison of you just you you've got a moving average. In our case we use averages a lot of people don't like a threequarter average. A lot of people use 200 days which is about the same duration. Uh we lose a three-year average and sometimes a 36-month average which is a monthly change in a three-year average. Okay, three-year average only adjusts once a year, for example. Boom, your new average. Okay, applies all year. Then you plot the bars, whether they're above it or below it. So, it's pretty simple really. Okay, you come up with your average and then you plot this month's bar in its proximity above or below that average. Sometimes we'll plot it on an arithmetic scale, like how many dollars above or below, and sometimes we'll do a percent scale, how much percent above or below. Uh, but it's not really difficult. It's just and then we also use different averages. So we we want to see for example if you break a trend on an intermediate type metric let's say a three-month average which is sort of intermediate that when you break it it may only be worth a fivemonth move or six-month move a multi-year move. So we like to look at that and know well what's the context here? If we just broke something that's shortterm or intermediate does it really alter the longer term trend? And if it does, then oh, that's important. But if it doesn't, if it's just a correction within a long-term trend, we note that and we might tell our subscribers, yeah, you just broke something. But it's intermediate or short term. So if you're concerned about what happens in the next three weeks, then you know, be concerned. But if you don't, then don't. Okay? Uh because the big picture still says it's okay. So it's time scales also matter. What's your context? But it's simple to do. Yeah. >> The last term is spreads. >> Do do we need to talk about that or or not? >> Well, a lot of people do the ratio of silver to gold. >> Okay. >> You know, the the multiples. We just do it a different way. We divide an ounce of silver and an ounce of gold and express it as a percent. It's the same study except it's upside down version of a ratio chart. Okay? But you plot that and like for instance, we'll plot well where do close each month silver price into ounce of gold and you plot it on a chart, you know, it's x% and then you plot the next month, then you plot and after a while you get a a spread chart building structures maybe or trend lines. In the case of silver recently, it had like a a 10-year wide structure where it couldn't get above this shallow level versus gold and and the close of November it did. Okay. Okay. >> A fresh breakout over a 10-year wide structure does not end two months later. Okay. That's the message that you don't break out over a 10-year wide base and expect to see the top in two months. >> A pullback. Yeah. But it just began. In other words, so you look at the context as well. Now, if that that structure were only something that went back three months, then maybe Yeah. But he had a 10-year wide structure. So when you look at that, you realize this is big. This just changed. And you mentioned it other issue. Gold in relation to the S&P that also broke out. Silver versus the S&P. Gold and silver miners versus the S&P all had spread relationships to the S&P where you could plot a line going back to 2014. So 11-year wide either slightly declining or flat. And they all broke through that relative performance structure in November saying, "Hey, I'm now a better place to be than you are." And it just began. You don't have something that big and wide that breaks out over something that smacks you in the face and expect the high in two months. Okay, that's another message for the the longs right now. >> But yeah, it's simple. A spread is just a simple chart expressing the value of one to another and it develops technicals just like price chart guys like to look at trend lines, ceilings, etc. So, this is a perfect you probably answered it in uh circular fashion, but I think we'll now hit the uh $64,000 question which is on everyone's mind which is after last Friday and last Monday and silver had a bit of a of a check back again this morning that apparently started in Asia. Mhm. >> What has been the impact of Friday and Monday on your intermediate and long-term models for gold and silver? And why shouldn't people be scared to death? >> Well, the if you drop down to a more intermediate time scale because again I said quarterly and annual momentum, there's not any structure that's anywhere nearby to say, "Oh gosh, I broke it. It's over." Okay, it just doesn't >> long term. That's long term. drop down to intermediate and intermediate would be monthly. Monthto month versus a threemonth moving average. Okay? Usually when you get trend swings on that metric on the oscillators, you'll see they run for four to six months. Okay? Uh that is if you break a structure. Now, this recent pullback, instead of breaking anything, it came down to an average, the three-month average on gold and silver that it hadn't seen for silver, for example, since uh before last summer. So, all these months of rising silver, you never even condescended to pull back and touch your rapidly rising three-month moving average. Like the zero line on the oscillator, you hadn't even come down to it. So finally we we touched it uh early this month, the first day of this month when we had a slight further followth through to the collapse last month. You touched the three-month average almost precisely and you rallied 20 bucks off of it. Now you came back and retested today. It's not structurally important. It's just an interesting fact that you haven't even returned to a balance point, a zero line, the three-month average. uh and you know it's likely we'll find support there. Gold did the same thing. Gold broke it by I think about 50 bucks and immediately exploded. So that's what I think we just saw and it was merely a return even on intermediate stuff that said hey this might be a place to buy. Now, when we shrink down to weekly and go to like a three-w weekek average, we blew a structure on weekly on Friday a week ago. And sure enough, instead of a nice selloff, you had a huge sell-off. We've broken that same structure before in weeklys and only had, you know, so so selloff. This time it happened to be big. This week's high rallied back up to the 3-week average, which changed from last week obviously, and bumped our head on it. So on the oscillator, you broke through the zero line, and this week you came back up and bumped it. So what had been prior lows now, bump, you bumped it. You set that level. So, next week with a now falling 3-week average, if you get back above it, the weekly momentum, which had a stumble and broke broke a minor structure, you'll reassert yourself back above the structure saying, "Okay, game over. I'm back up again." And all it takes is getting back up into the upper 80s anytime next week on silver. We'll do that. So, but again, that's shortterm. So don't confuse it with an investment grade position. >> Got it. So um in essence, uh nothing that happened in the past week has you too concerned. Um I have all these questions come to mind whenever I speak to you. Should anyone have been trying to sell a little silver and trade it at 121 or do you think that's counterproductive? We were looking for a midpoint stumble in our couple quarter surge that we expected to have a couple quarters of massive surge back in 79 when that occurred again within that old $50 range though and in 201011 that occurred in the about in the middle of that clock. One was a fivemon surge, one was a sevenmon surge. About in the middle there was a bad month. In case of 79, it didn't actually close down, but you had a stumble that for about six weeks, you could have gone sideways after you stumbled. Okay? So, it didn't go anywhere. And in 2000, in January 2011, you had a massive monthly reversal on a price chart where a price guy said, "That's a key reversal month. It's over." Okay. the next month worked your way back up and what happened on the other side once you cleared that high was more massive than what had happened up to that point. So it was a massive move interrupted by a midpoint stumble. We thought that likely would occur more likely let's say get into three months into the possible couple quarters or instead it happened after month two. So we were a bit surprised by the quickness of it. No, we did not call it. We were anticipating such an event probably late February, early March, but now the game's changed. They moved it up. Okay, fine. Uh we still think that's probably your midpoint stumble. That's not the end of this move. Again, we've got too many metrics that are massive in years. Gold versus S&P, silver S&P, silver versus gold. All these things just occurred in November. You don't break out of a decade wide base and go for two months and say, "Oh, that was it." >> Do you ever try to trade stumbles? >> Oh, yeah. Uh but in this case, I think this is an investment grade move in the monetary metals that you shouldn't trade. >> Okay. >> We've been saying all along that there have been many over the last year 10 and 15% drops in silver that happened like overnight. Okay, this was bigger, okay, admittedly, but they happen very quickly. Used to be they take several weeks to recoup or a month or two. Now they're occurring rapidly. Look at the October stumble we had, for example. There was a sharp sell off in October. I think was like a 15 or more percent drop. It took a couple weeks to get out above that, you know. So, I don't think this stumble is going to last very long. And I the problem with exiting prematurely even in a thing like this is when do you get back in? Do you get back in? When do you get back in? And is it better than where you got out? or if you don't get back in fully, what's on the other side of this is highly likely to be far more gain for you had you not wiggled than what has already occurred by our assessments. Uh we think what's on the other side of this is far greater than what's already occurred. So you have to think about it as an investor. Are you in this for the jiggles, even the sharp ones to avoid? Are you in this on an investment grade? And we're arguing you don't have to wait for years on this either. Highly likely that much of what we're going to get this year will be achieved by summer. >> Now, uh this it's always unfair to ask for targets. Uh but on just very briefly, do you have a target and a time frame >> or do you have either or can you have both? What what's your target or time frame on gold? >> Okay, I'm going to give you two views of reality that are simply price. Okay, if you get a price chart of silver monthly, go back to 75, you'll see that it lived in this half ccentury zone of reality, 50 bucks to four, 50 bucks to four. So, it's about a $45 range. Okay? You add 45 to 50, the arithmetic swing objective of a box like that on a price chart. You take the distance of it and you add it to the top. It says target 95, maybe 100 bucks. Okay? What happened back then? Couple months ago you stumbled in the mid 90s it was repeated selling 93 95. Okay guys saying hey we reached our objective right >> on orthodox methodology. If you take a logarithmic or ratio scale chart of silver same time period you'll see that that range from four to 50 was like a t-fold the dimension. She bought the bottom of that range and went to the top is tenfold from where you bought it to the top and it went back down up and down, you know, for 50 years. Okay. Tenfold on top of 50 is what? >> Gotcha. >> Okay. 500. Okay. Now, you want to take a gold chart. Do the same thing back to 75. It's had bull moves that blow out the prior high on a ratio scale chart of gold, not arithmetic, but ratio. You'll see that both of the prior bull markets, the 1980 peak, the 2011 peak, were eightfold gains, bare low to bullhigh. Silver was still capped at 50 bucks, but gold wasn't capped at each peak. It was an eight-fold gain from bare low to bull high. If we have another eight-fold gain, which is merely matching the dimensions of the prior two bull markets, 1980p, 2011, you'll go to $8,500. >> That's from the 1050 and December six. December 15. >> Yeah. I've put it in a lot of reports, but that's merely replicating >> an old reality you've done twice in gold. Eightfold. Afold. Big deal. You do it again. Look at the conditions out there. the factors in play, the bond market problems, the forex problems, commodities asserting themselves again, a new commodity bull, inflation as many people like to define it, gold's going to top with a five-fold game. Okay? So, even if we just match that, and by the way, we coming up with that number months and months ago. JP Morgan just came out with the same number, 8,000 to 8,500. We find that curious, but even that's not our target. But in the case of silver, if you do the ratio scale of its dimension, you come up with 500. And if you factor in M2, and I haven't done it, but a lot of people have, you come up with several hundred dollars just to match the 1980 high or the 2011 high when you factor in the decay in the money unit, the real buying power, the quantification of the money supply. Uh silver to get back to those realities would be well in the several hundreds. So we keep coming up with numbers that say hey and we also we looked at copper and lead back in the 2005 and 2007 for lead. They broke out of a similar range and when they broke out it literally in a couple quarters they quadrupled in price on their own without help from other markets. They went into a new reality. How come silver was caught in that reality for 50 years? Something smell is there. Okay. Well, it's saying no more. Okay. and it has yet to achieve anything remotely close to what even copper and lead did or to what gold has done over the last 50 years. I think it's about to. So, are there We've sort of covered the upside in terms of confirmation. Are there prices for gold and silver that would concern you on the downside that might be signs or triggers of a failed move or an extended downdraft? When we look at long-term momentum, we have no structures that are nearby. >> Therefore, it is highly unlikely, it's rare indeed, to ever have a market collapse that is not pre-triggered or very closely triggered off of a high. One of the first things I caught before I set up MSA was catching the crash in 87. I didn't catch it in a big way. I bought puts for myself and my futures clients. I was a broker then. Why? because quarterly momentum of the S&P had built a threeyear wide floor at its zero line on the three/arter average. So in August, September of 1987, it was making new price highs. Oh boy, it looks great. Okay. And you oozed off that high in September and in the first week of October, the new quarter, you were down to that structure again. It wasn't going to hold the fourth time. It didn't. We crashed within two weeks. 35% literally in a couple weeks which is definition of a crash that dimension quarterly momentum told you and when that occurred on the price chart you were hardly off the highs compared to where you went at the there was a structure there it explained it >> there's none now >> interesting >> therefore on my methodology a sharp break that doesn't break structure is merely a sharp break >> and when you say structure just for viewers you're talking structure mental structure, a massive uptrend you can define clearly or a flat floor. Neither >> is exists anywhere near where we are. >> All right. Precious metal equities. Can you >> Yeah, >> you could probably talk about them for an hour, but do you have a a couple of >> vastly undervalued to gold? Okay. Now, the XAU index is been around since the 1980s, so we use it. It's the gold and silver miners index. Philadelphia gold and silver miners index. If you go back and look where was XAU in relation to an ounce of gold 1980s, 1990s, 2000 up through 2008. So for multiple decades, it oscillated in its relative value to gold at 25%. Meaning if you divided XAU price into an ounce of gold, the median price of that multi-deade range was 25%. The bottom end of that range was 17 to 18% repeatedly. The upper end was 35%. So let's call third 25% its normal value to gold for decades. In 2015 in the bare market in gold and the miners it dropped to 4% of the price of gold. I mean what do you think? Something that lived at 25% an ounce of gold went to four. It's going to zero. that asset category. The miners were off the page dirt cheap for 11 years. They've bounced and been in a range with multiple lows since at two at 5% and multiple highs above eight. We got up above eight last month. They snapped it back down by the end of the month. So, you didn't break out above the range, but there is a perfect rectangular range spanning back to 2014 that the relative performance of miners is trying to break through. When you break through that ceiling, and I think we're going to, the persistence indicates it to us. you get back up above, let's say above eight and a half% ever again, divide XAU, an ounce of gold, you're breaking out of that massive base at very cheap asset levels. In other words, if you respect gold and silver, why don't you respect the guys that get it out of the ground? They're essential to you having the metal. Okay? And they're still at vastly underpriced levels historically. I would expect them to double if not more in relative performance to an ounce of gold once that breakout occurs. And I suspect that will be an event that occurs during 2026 where the miners beat gold by doublefold. Before we go to oil briefly, um does it matter to you why things happen? Now what do I mean by that? So obviously on silver from what I've read the Chinese speculators the uh algorithmic traders the uh options have been off through the roof in the last couple of weeks. >> So when you come back from a move that's for those reasons and then we could have a different reason like the Fed decided to cut intra meeting or something like that. Do you ever factor in the tenor of the fundamentals or it just doesn't matter? >> No, I mean uh war events for example are I don't like them because if you buy oil based on that like remember the when we nuked the Iranian sites it blew them up. >> There was a big spike in oil up into the 70s and immediately collapsed or anybody bought war news got killed a couple months ago. Yeah. uh instead oils got our breakout level at last month's close and I won't specify what it was but we closed above it. So it said okay I've broken out of a massive momentum base and a massive downtrend as well. There was a horizontal and a trend line. So momentum said I'm awake. You look at a price chart where oil is now you say no big deal. Sort of in the middle of stuff you know but momentum says no I'm waking up. >> This is sort of around 62. the 63 area. Okay. Yeah. And I it would not shock given the structure that we broke out of momentum to have a surge. No, I hope no headlines. Frankly, I don't like headlines. >> Get headlines later. That's fine. Explain it to the late comers. Okay. But you don't want the early buyers to be motivated by headlines because usually it's a trap. Uh but we got a breakout without a headline. Good. Uh it wouldn't shock me to have the first jolt take you into the mid 90s on oil so quickly. >> Wow. Uh well, but that's still cheap. >> Had a high at 130 in 2032. Had a high before that at 140. >> There are a lot of there are a lot of wise guys, as you know, and I know some of them I work with some of them who are convinced oil's going to 40 just because >> I know there's overwhelming consensus. I agree. >> Yeah. Right. >> And they've got their reasons. And uh I don't All I can say is this. Sometimes there's another factor that comes in and it's not the short-term assessment of this that data point or anything like that. It's the relative pricing of that asset to itself >> and the relative pricing of that asset to other assets. And right now oil is off the page dirt cheap in history, >> even to its own price levels. You're not even halfway back to where you were in 2022. >> So don't call it expensive. And going to 40. Yeah. I can understand why they say that, you know, but it's underpriced. Somebody noted heard the other day that relative to silver, it's never before had that kind of relationship. Fine. That's both a reflection of oil's weakness and silver strength. But think of things sometimes in terms of, hey, maybe it's just too dirt cheap. You got to factor in value is distorted by the money unit. So, you know, when your your grandfather built a house, it was 4,500. Your dad built one, it was 45,000. Median home today is 450,000. So, there's an ongoing degradation in the money unit. So, if x number of years ago, oil was 140 and you're 60. Not only is it cheap arithmetically, but if you factor in the money degradation, it's almost free, right? >> So, sometimes that takes over. Okay? Uh that's probably one of the underlying factors in silver as well. >> Uh so you have to sometimes forget that stuff and just look at at value, you know. >> All right. And we're gonna we're going to end soon, but how about a sentence each on the commodity sector as a whole? How do you think? >> Let's just do that and then we'll take a final look at the S&P because I think I understand your S&P view. Do you what's your commodity view generally? is that >> I have positive on the commodity sector since October when Bloomberg closed the month out over 10652. It's our trigger number. It's gone up since then. It's pulled back recently along with the stock market for example, but it's still in bull mode, bull resurrection mode. That first move we had in 2020 to 2022 was its statement, I'm out of here. I'm not going to hell. You know, it used to be $234 Bloomberg 234 points in 2008. It went under 60 in 2020. You think it's going to free? Okay. It reasserted itself by going to 140. Pull back. That was its first statement. I'm alive. Pull back halfway. Stabilized. Proved it wasn't going lower. And now it said, "Okay, second leg now beginning. This is the one that'll upset so many apple carts, political apple carts. uh the central bank won't know whether to go go blind, you know, god, we got to cut rates because the stock market's breaking, which it will. Uh or the bond market's in trouble. We got to print print and oh gosh, we got rising commodities, so we're really messed up here, but we got to do the other. Uh Bloomberg looks like a great investment place to be based on value and technicals and oil, which has been a lagard this time. It was a leader in that 2020 to 2022 surge. This time it's a lagard, but both wheat and oil just joined the Bloomberg with last month's close saying, "Okay, we're out of here, too. It's two essential commodities coming up from very low levels, technically fully justified by our metrics to go much higher over a longer period of time. So, if I were an investor looking for a place to be unleveraged, looking long-term, couple years, I'd be buying commodity related stocks right now. >> Terrific. And then I think to summarize your views on equities, and they're boring. We we focus on the interesting stuff, but the S&P uh I think what you're looking for is a sort of forming top, >> but not calling a top and not calling a collapse. Is that fair? Yeah, I think the top has not been made yet. Uh we've been in a topping process. Yes, we've made higher highs since February of last year. S&P then approached 6,200. Okay, today we're trading in the 6,800s uh uh one year later. Okay, so a gain fine. Same thing happened in 2000 and 2007 when you we declared a top in process. It labored for a year, even made higher highs. But I think we're near the top. But I think the S&P has to go higher first. The Dow has to go higher first. They're intermediate term metrics we look at. The long term says, "Hey, you're doomed. It's just a matter of when we set that thing in motion." The intermediate says, "Nope, we need to go higher first." >> What do you mean by that? What tells >> I mean at least get up like the 7050 to 7100 S&P though several percent, but blow out those recent highs. And if you look at a Dow chart for the last six weeks, it's ludicrous. >> You got all these highs just short of just a flat ceiling. You don't pop that way. Okay, you spike. I I sus I'm suspicious on this. We We'll find out what happens. Supreme Court is going to make a decision and they've been holding off and holding off and everybody's talking February 20th >> on the tariffs. >> Yeah. On the tariffs. Mhm. >> I think the tariff issue is is BS as far as the market topping. They sold into it in January through April based on news. >> You don't top a market that way. It was a new subject matter. Tariffs in place. Oh gosh. Okay. Then he took a 90-day leave on the tariffs. Market rallied. Okay. I would love now to see good news come out that the tariffs are at least in jeopardy because the Supreme Court's getting in his way and stumbling him on that issue. Then the longs could say, "Oh boy, party on. Get that headline off the page. It isn't the reason the market would have topped anyway. It would have topped because it's overpriced. It's gone up too long. Money flows have gone into it for 16 years thanks to the Fed printing money. Interest rates at zero of 10 of those 15 years. Money supply exploding. That's why it went up. That bubble breaks. It's got many reasons. It doesn't need a tariff. And to hit it with the news story is not the way to top it. The best way to top it is to take that news story away. Make everybody happy. And then you top with everybody smiling, not knowing why is it going down. Don't be shocked that that may be the news event that gets us that new high in the S&P. But after that, the downturn, I don't think will be a crash. I think you could have a laborious process of zigzag type decline that won't impact the people who think, "Oh my gosh, if it's going down, I got to sell my miners." Okay. I don't think there's a crash event in the stock market until unless probably later this year you get down toward 5,400 in the S&P. That's a long way below. I don't think you get there quickly. But anyway, as far as the top, look for it soon. Hope I'm cheering for the Supreme Court. >> Does does that mean you see, not to beat this that you see a structure in the S&P? Yeah, there's a structure waiting, but it would require this year to get down toward that level, >> which isn't, you know, remember in April it got down to 4,800. >> So, I'm not talking about taking out the April low. 600 points above there is the danger level, but right now we're not there. And I think to get there, you probably don't do it in a heartbeat. There's no crash event here. And it's only sometimes when you get that kind of event does it affect the monetary metals or the miners. It's not just because the stock market's going down. It's because there's a panic in the stock market. I don't see the panic situation technically until you get down to that 5400. Then there could be panic. But good news. If that's three, four, five months from now, where might silver, gold, and the miners be by then? >> Perfect way to end. So, uh, Michael, thanks for your time. And for wealthy on viewers, structural mo momentum.com, >> uh, MS Oliver MSA, oliverma.com, momentum structural analysis. >> And I encourage everybody to just check out the website and and maybe you can, you know, uh, hassle Michael to give you a few examples of his work. Uh but I really appreciate you're spending time with us and I have to give you kudos one more time. You were four for four uh in Toronto on the 23rd and uh I'm a convert. So we look forward to speaking with you, you know, in three to four months to see how you're doing. >> Thank you, Trey. >> Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthon.comfree. With markets hitting all-time highs, now is a great time to stress test your strategy and be prepared for what comes next. Thank you all for watching. We'll see you again next time.
Michael Oliver: “Bitcoin Is Broken” — Why Silver, Gold & Commodities Aren’t Done
Summary
Transcript
We view the pullback as being a very sharp but nonevent in terms of changing our outlook. We still think silver is in a rampage. This is what you would call the midpoint stumble. Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthon.comfree. Uh, greetings and welcome to our wealthy on show. My name is Trey Reich and we are here today with Michael Oliver, the proprietor and publisher of the momentum structural analysis report. Uh having been in this business for four decades, I can safely say that Michael's work is the most unique, interesting, and uh truly thought-provoking approach to technical analysis that I've ever read. And I encourage Wealthy on viewers with a deep interest in markets and how they function to give Michael's work a look see. Uh it's not cheap, I would say, but I believe it's well worth it. So, uh, for those who are serious about the trade, uh, I send you in Michael's direction, and I'm sure he'd be happy to share some models of what he does. Uh, boiling things down, Michael's analysis looks past short-term price analysis, which most technical analysis uh, is obsessed with, and focuses on trends in long-term momentum. Uh and I want to start our conversation today by looking back on the wealthy on SCP silver conference which we held on October 23rd at the Shanganger Hotel in Toronto. Uh Michael was one of the two lunchtime keynote speakers and I I need to set the stage for what was going on uh at the time of the conference especially in silver market since it was a silver conference. Uh but in August uh last year, silver was fairly steady at 38 bucks for most of the month and then started a nice advance which ended up peaking on 1017 6 days before the conference at 5450. And especially given uh the amount of attention that the number 50 gets in all analysis of silver over the past decade. You know that was a pretty key level to a breakthrough a week before the conference. By the morning of the conference, silver had back backed off to 4850. uh and I will tell you that without question the background overwhelming mood at the conference was silver had peaked and we missed it by a week. So that was the situation and up to the stage walks Michael and very calmly uh presents his case that Silver was not peing and in fact he used the word explode and I think he used the word explode two or three times uh during the presentation and I remember thinking after hearing Michael speak if there was one thing he was not short of it was confidence. So, as it turns out, he was dead, right? And in fact, eerily so. So, I thought we would start with wealthy on viewers to get a an insight into how Michael works. Why were you so confident at that time? >> Uh, the momentum trend first of the price trend was obviously up as well. Okay. And we were challenging and finally nipped out those $50 what I call idiot highs because they lasted for a half a century. 50 bucks, four bucks, etc. You know, back and forth. Confined like no other market on the planet almost. Gold wasn't confined during 50 years. Neither was copper. Okay. Anyway, so we at the time of that conference 48 bucks. What are we now? We're trading right now as we speak 76. So, oh, terrible. Okay. you know, percentwise, it's a huge gain. Yes, we're well off the high we just saw last month, but at that time, a couple things had already happened. One, we look at the trend of silver and gold in long-term momentum metrics. Like, for example, we measure the monthly price action of silver gold in relation to, let's say, a three-year average or a 36, a three/4er average. These are fairly long-term yard sticks. And we don't just overlay the average. That's not meaningful. Sometimes you can cross those averages and it's who cares. Okay? It's when you plot the bars of price in their relationship to a given moving average. Like is it above it or below it? Okay? And if so, what's the high of the month, low of the month, close of the month in relation to that given moving average? And those averages change, of course, every month on a 36-month, every quarter on a threequarter average. But anyway, you get a different chart when you plot momentum in bar chart form against certain long-term averages. And you see trend structures, the kind of things that an average price chart guy would like. He'd draw a line across a couple highs and say, "Oh, we broke out over that line." Or a floor that you've used two, three times and you break below it, therefore it's all over. It's going down. you know that kind of thing. We do it with momentum almost always when there's a trend shift even shortterm uh intermediate or long term momentum usually will break its structure and indicate the new direction prior to price smacking you in the face and saying oops I'm going down or I'm going up okay so it's a good leading indicator and you can anticipate trend changes especially when you see on momentum a structure structure that just is so clear and used so many times as resistance or as support and usually they don't last forever. I mean you can only use a certain level so many times and finally if you hit it too many times you go through. Okay, that's true with momentum. Anyway, at that point in time, silver on our long-term momentum metrics was already fully positive. In fact, one of our primary entry points was before that was back in, if you'll recall, silver was capped in a range with a high above 35 in late 24 and a high above 35 again in March of 25. confined for there was like a year there where it it twisted and turned at that level and to the downside, a congestion zone, but very wide. The third time that it came back up toward that 3435 level was back in June of last year. Silver still in the mid30s, still in that range, but momentum said, "Uh-uh, you're breaking out." Price had not yet broken out. That would have required getting up to 3550 to blow out those two prior highs on the price chart. But as it approached 35 that that third time, our momentum broke out and we said, "Okay, acceleration phase for silver now commencing." Meaning rather than this two steps forward, one step back process, it's going to be like five steps forward, one step back. Okay? And boom, later in the year, we're at the 50 buck level plus. Okay? challenging the old idiot highs. But then something else happened and that was in November, a month after our conference in Toronto. At that point in time, nothing had changed on the silver price or long-term momentum positives. They were positive already. No big deal. But why is it all of a sudden after the November close, which I think was what in the 70s or something like that, uh, silver broke out versus gold where when you plot the spread chart relationship between an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold. You go back 50 years, you can do that. You'll find that back in the 1980 bull surge in silver, silver was 6 and a half% divide an ounce of silver an ounce of gold of the price of gold. Okay, keep that in mind. And then it dropped back down. And then in that same 50-year price range, in the second surge in that range, which peaked in 2011 at 50 bucks, silver versus gold reached up to 3.1%. Okay. Early last year, silver was at 1% of the price of gold. I mean, you think it's going to free. Okay. Anyway, so during the year last year as we turned up, but especially after that nove at that November close when we plotted that chart, you blew through a ceiling on that spread chart where if you plot each month's close, there was a clear multi-point ceiling that kept stopping all the rallies in silver versus gold. We closed above it in November. And it was at that point we said, "Okay, we're lid is really coming off now." Because silver whenever it does this versus gold, which it did in 79 prior to the explosion in 1980. And it did in late 2010 prior to this explosion again to 50. That spread broke out. And when that broke out, it told you the temper and tone is changing. So what happened since then? Well, we went up to 120 bucks in two months. We went up to 120. Normally, when you see these spread breakouts of silver versus gold, like in that 79 period in the summer 79 or September 2010, it's over the next couple quarters that you see the consequence. Not over two months. It's a massive chart breakout spanning a year or more of resistance where silver just couldn't get up above this level. When you gush through that, you gush and you usually gush for a couple quarters. And yes, in the middle of each of those surges, there is a shin kick that oh gosh, it's all over. This one came a little sooner than we expected. We were frankly expecting a midpoint stumble late this month or early March. Instead of being like in the third month of the six month or so surge, it occurred at the end of the second month, earlier than we expected. So we were wrong in that regard and it was deeper than we expected. But frankly when we look at the depth of that selloff which got down to 7172 you know on Monday the first day of this this month. So we had like a day and a half collapse really it was all a day and a half the whole drop day and a half. Uh we dropped back to the rising threemonth average on silver a level it has not seen since the first half of last year. sort of return to a rising average that is now acted like support. You sometimes you have to return to the mean. You know, three-month average isn't super long term, but it returned there and it tested it again today. So anyway, we view the pullback as being a very sharp but nonevent in terms of changing our outlook. We still think silver is in a rampage. This is what you would call the midpoint stumble. And we what we expect this month to see is silver firm again in February. Probably not see a new high this month. In other words, the January high stands. Okay. True for gold insole. But we see a firming action such that by the end of the month, we're well back up off this low and somewhat approaching the January high. It's in March that I would expect that if after we see that stability action this month that you then resume and March says, "Okay, game on again." And then again, if we're correct in our analysis, and we have multiple reasons for coming up with this observation of the six-month surge, it's not just that one thing. Uh you could see silver reach into the several hundred zone, like three to 500. And that sounds ludicrous. I know. Uh if you want the explanation as to why that's that's sort of a target, I can give it to you. If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest and own physical gold and silver, visit our sister company, hardassetsalliance at hardassetsalliance.com. That's hardassallalliance.com. >> We're going to get there. You just I'll let you through a couple of my questions, but I wasn't going to stop you because it's fun to listen to. >> So, going back to October, >> there were two other things you mentioned that we should look for. There were really four. You mentioned gold stocks versus gold. We'll leave that for later. Gold versus silver, but you also mentioned gold versus the >> and Bitcoin and the Bloomberg commodity index. Now, I don't want to spend too much time back in October, but can you just give us a few words on how the Bitcoin and the Bloomberg commodity index and to a certain degree the relationship to the S&P all worked out as you expected and gave the silver uh move a little bit of >> Yeah. a little more juicy, >> a little more oomph. >> Yeah. Um, and it's these external factors and also we got to watch T- bonds going forward too. But there's external factors. You don't just look at a silver and gold chart. That's a mistake. You got to look at these major external factors because what they're saying often will alter something. You might be thinking about silver like getting negative because of the recent drop. You got to look at certain other things. But as for Bitcoin, okay, it peaked at 128,000. Okay. A couple months ago back in October, November. Okay, as it was making that high and everybody was talking million-dollar Bitcoin, whatever, uh, momentum of Bitcoin, long-term momentum of Bitcoin did not look at all like what the Bitcoin price chart looked like. Instead, the momentum chart looked like a a lamer and lamer advances with each price advance getting to new new highs. The momentum readings kept making lower highs. They were getting more anemic. and they built a floor since 2023 that used it three times at the three quarter moving average. They don't always build a structure at an average, but in this case, they did. The three/arter moving average of Bitcoin. You didn't close below it three times. You traded down to it three separate pullbacks during that price advance. We could tell you were going to break it this time. Sure enough, we broke it a couple months ago. our our trigger levels were 107 104 area. Okay. >> And as soon as it broke 107, it fell apart just as you >> it dropped down, you know, into the low 80s. Okay. Right. >> And u we argued though that pause that we saw couple month pause with a rally up into the upper 90s. Okay. So a lot of people felt like, oh boy, it's good. We said you're going to have a congestive pause. Don't don't get deceived by it. probably at your minimum going to 60,000. Well, the last few days we got down to like 66,000 today as we're speaking. Okay, so we're getting there. And I'm not saying that's going to be a bottom or a buy point. I'm saying that's like a minimum downside target. You may go to 20,000 for all I know. You've blown long-term momentum structure on Bitcoin, and you did it only a few months ago. So, it's not like a a breakout that's gone for a full year and exhausted. It's fresh. >> So, this is a broken asset. >> And I know a lot of people are hurting right now. Not not just financially, but you know, conceptually, I didn't think this would happen. What's reality now? Okay, that's one issue. Um, and that that have impact I think probably on some financial connections, some corporations that are now involved in Bitcoin that five years ago had no relationship to what happened there. Now they have a financial uh oh it's a shin kick or a gut kick for them what's going on. >> You're talking about the companies that bought Bitcoin in their treasuries. Correct. >> Yeah. And even Visa allowed Bitcoin to some extent be used in in payments and so forth. Okay. Yeah. It it got entrenched in a lot of places that now could be feeling the gut kick. Okay. So it's bigger than just Bitcoin. >> Um >> and then Bloomberg commodity >> Bloomberg. Yeah. The Bloomberg commodity index made its high in at 140 price level after making a bare low under 60 in 2020. It rallied into early 2022 to 140. So more than a doubling, but even then it was like half the price of what it had been in 2008. Okay. So yeah, a nice big rally, but it was still underpriced versus its own history. Then it pulled back under 100 and labored on either side of 100 on the Bloomberg commodity index. About a 50% pullback of that bull surge. Okay. For several years, 23, 24, 25. In October of last year, it broke out on momentum above our trigger level, which was 10650. It's since right now it's trading around 11718. Okay. So, it's gone up, not exploded, no headlines. It's just worked its way higher. Few people are noticing in in components within the Bloomberg are very important because they impact the average guy on the street. Trump says he's going to keep gasoline down. Right. Okay. We broke out via our long-term metrics on crude oil last month. I suspect that the consequence of that, the initial consequence of that over a couple quarters maybe or maybe even one quarter will be to get back up into the 90s. You say, "Well, that's a 50% move. Big deal." Actually, it's not. You were 30 in 2022. Before that, you'd been 140 oil. So getting back into the 90s is no great chart achievement but it's a 50% boost in gasoline prices which is going to hit a lot of people in the face and also wheat broke out over a massive momentum ceiling that we had defined. So it's now engaged. So you got a problem here. You've got a major lowpriced asset category, historically low in its own price levels, prior price levels, and low in relation to the S&P and low in relation to almost anything. It's cheap and it's saying, "I'm going up now. It's joining gold." Now, why would you have the commodity complex freshly join on the coattails of the monetary metals and think that the monetary metals have just topped when commodities are just now joining in? Think about that. Okay? It doesn't make sense. Okay. Anyway, I think the Bloomberg is now a very positive place to be or commodities and commodity related stocks, oil stocks, grain related fertilizer, base metal miners, things like that are a safe and beneficial place to be probably for several years >> compared to the stock market. Anyway, so another big category. So before we come to the present and you mentioned oil, we're going to get there. >> I thought we could take a break because I want you to try to give uh viewers an understanding of what you do differently. And so I wrote down four terms. I wrote down long-term structural analysis, spreads, and momentum. >> Yeah. >> And not that you want to give us, you know, your secret sauce. That's fine. Yeah. Yeah. >> But long term, I think we understand you don't look at, you know, weekly or daily price patterns and make trading decisions. I think you're at the opposite end of the spectrum. But those other three structures, spreads, and momentum, could you just give us a few sentences on each one and how it works? >> The notion of momentum analysis today, the popular one is to look at some wet noodle indicators. And literally, they look like wet noodles. They do this, you know, RSI, MACD, things like that that are free on your quote screen, okay? They they indicate, well, I'm overbought. Oh, I'm oversold or they bounce around like crazy. >> Yeah. They don't have structures. They just sort of loop. They're wet noodles. Okay. And sometimes they have validity. There's no question. I'm not not going to doubt them. Then other times they they just don't. Okay? Like you can get a market like silver's been overbought. Uh back in the 79 to 80 move for example, you would have missed the entire move had you looked at RSI, monthly RSI. It got overbought and stayed there for a year above 80 on RSI. You would have missed the entire bull move if you'd gotten out. First time it got overbought. Okay. Structure. Again, we plot bars, monthly high, low, close, but in relationship to what percent above, what percent below or how many points above, how many points below a given moving average. And when you plot it as an oscillator in relation to that mean, might be a three-year average or three three/4er average, a threemonth average, you plot it versus these various means and you'll get a chart that looks different from the price chart. same high low monthly bars, but instead of just based on where it is in relation to the US dollar, which itself is not a a fixed yard stick anyway, it's a piece of rubber. Okay? But when you plot it versus its own moving averages, long-term down to intermediate term, even short term, you'll get an oscillator that has it's a bar chart oscillator, but it doesn't always reflect what the price chart shows. The price may say, "Look, I just made a new high." And you look at momentum and it says, "Uh-uh, I'm making a new high." That's a hint sometimes. Uh, but what we look for is structure where, and by structure, it's simple. It's what the price guys look at. They draw uptrends. They draw flat lines where the price keeps hitting this line or keeps hitting the same floor and they got a structure. We do the same thing with momentum. But momentum will often develop the structure when price hasn't. And momentum will say, gosh, I just blew through a triple bottom and price doesn't even show that. It shows rising lows, let's say. But momentum said, I just blew a major structure. That will usually happen before price chart smacks you in the face and says, "Oops, I broke something." Okay, so that's what we mean by structure. >> Okay. And before we leave structure, I had to read this recent report that you sent me three times >> to sort of get a feel for your language. It's a little different. I'm not familiar with all the terms and definitely the way you approach it. One of the things that you say is this and this happened, but there was no structure there. >> Is that because people like me don't have your momentum work? >> Yeah. >> So, we don't see the structure. >> Yeah. that you see like you're seeing a different reality. Is that fair? >> That's right. Yeah. So, like I no doubt everybody's impressed or scared by the monthly drop you had last the tail end of last month. Uh which so far basically ceased then by the way, but a horrible looking candle, big reversal. It looks terrible. Okay. uh when you go to u a momentum chart and you look at let's say annual momentum or quarterly momentum where you're plotting these monthly bars against these long-term averages and you plot you're looking for structure like is there a major uptrend line that I'm breaking or is there a floor? No. In neither case does that break even approach any structure that you could consider valid as something oops I don't want to break it. >> Okay. There's not even any structure nearby. And in fact, in the case of annual momentum of gold and silver, they haven't even developed structure to break. What does that mean? What it means is usually before you top gold or bottom gold like in 2011 or 2015, you could see annual momentum structure develop a eight point uptrend line that you broke two months after the high in 2011. didn't break it on the price chart, but on momentum, you could go back like three years and there were there was an uptrend that was hit eight times. So, and you look at the price chart, you can't find that trend line. Uh, and similarly at the low in 2015, gold once it collapsed in 13 and 14, it then kept going down into 2015, reaching $1,50, but it kept making lower highs, sort of staircasing, but a little more gently. Okay. So, still down. Momentum on the other hand for two years had built a horizontal sideways range with the same highs being hit three times. >> So, you had a ceiling you could see wasn't evident on the price chart. And in February of 2016, 90 bucks off the low at a price of a,000, 1140 after the,50 low. You blew through a multi-year ceiling. It said bull market on again >> based on annual momentum. Since then, nothing has broken on annual momentum that indicates trend breakage. You've had zigzags, but you've not had anything that broke a structure that you could say, "Oh, it's over." And right now, you're not even near anything. You'll develop the structure before you top gold. Does your momentum calculation is it some sort of complicated mathematical formula that you developed or is it something that's just simple com comparison of you just you you've got a moving average. In our case we use averages a lot of people don't like a threequarter average. A lot of people use 200 days which is about the same duration. Uh we lose a three-year average and sometimes a 36-month average which is a monthly change in a three-year average. Okay, three-year average only adjusts once a year, for example. Boom, your new average. Okay, applies all year. Then you plot the bars, whether they're above it or below it. So, it's pretty simple really. Okay, you come up with your average and then you plot this month's bar in its proximity above or below that average. Sometimes we'll plot it on an arithmetic scale, like how many dollars above or below, and sometimes we'll do a percent scale, how much percent above or below. Uh, but it's not really difficult. It's just and then we also use different averages. So we we want to see for example if you break a trend on an intermediate type metric let's say a three-month average which is sort of intermediate that when you break it it may only be worth a fivemonth move or six-month move a multi-year move. So we like to look at that and know well what's the context here? If we just broke something that's shortterm or intermediate does it really alter the longer term trend? And if it does, then oh, that's important. But if it doesn't, if it's just a correction within a long-term trend, we note that and we might tell our subscribers, yeah, you just broke something. But it's intermediate or short term. So if you're concerned about what happens in the next three weeks, then you know, be concerned. But if you don't, then don't. Okay? Uh because the big picture still says it's okay. So it's time scales also matter. What's your context? But it's simple to do. Yeah. >> The last term is spreads. >> Do do we need to talk about that or or not? >> Well, a lot of people do the ratio of silver to gold. >> Okay. >> You know, the the multiples. We just do it a different way. We divide an ounce of silver and an ounce of gold and express it as a percent. It's the same study except it's upside down version of a ratio chart. Okay? But you plot that and like for instance, we'll plot well where do close each month silver price into ounce of gold and you plot it on a chart, you know, it's x% and then you plot the next month, then you plot and after a while you get a a spread chart building structures maybe or trend lines. In the case of silver recently, it had like a a 10-year wide structure where it couldn't get above this shallow level versus gold and and the close of November it did. Okay. Okay. >> A fresh breakout over a 10-year wide structure does not end two months later. Okay. That's the message that you don't break out over a 10-year wide base and expect to see the top in two months. >> A pullback. Yeah. But it just began. In other words, so you look at the context as well. Now, if that that structure were only something that went back three months, then maybe Yeah. But he had a 10-year wide structure. So when you look at that, you realize this is big. This just changed. And you mentioned it other issue. Gold in relation to the S&P that also broke out. Silver versus the S&P. Gold and silver miners versus the S&P all had spread relationships to the S&P where you could plot a line going back to 2014. So 11-year wide either slightly declining or flat. And they all broke through that relative performance structure in November saying, "Hey, I'm now a better place to be than you are." And it just began. You don't have something that big and wide that breaks out over something that smacks you in the face and expect the high in two months. Okay, that's another message for the the longs right now. >> But yeah, it's simple. A spread is just a simple chart expressing the value of one to another and it develops technicals just like price chart guys like to look at trend lines, ceilings, etc. So, this is a perfect you probably answered it in uh circular fashion, but I think we'll now hit the uh $64,000 question which is on everyone's mind which is after last Friday and last Monday and silver had a bit of a of a check back again this morning that apparently started in Asia. Mhm. >> What has been the impact of Friday and Monday on your intermediate and long-term models for gold and silver? And why shouldn't people be scared to death? >> Well, the if you drop down to a more intermediate time scale because again I said quarterly and annual momentum, there's not any structure that's anywhere nearby to say, "Oh gosh, I broke it. It's over." Okay, it just doesn't >> long term. That's long term. drop down to intermediate and intermediate would be monthly. Monthto month versus a threemonth moving average. Okay? Usually when you get trend swings on that metric on the oscillators, you'll see they run for four to six months. Okay? Uh that is if you break a structure. Now, this recent pullback, instead of breaking anything, it came down to an average, the three-month average on gold and silver that it hadn't seen for silver, for example, since uh before last summer. So, all these months of rising silver, you never even condescended to pull back and touch your rapidly rising three-month moving average. Like the zero line on the oscillator, you hadn't even come down to it. So finally we we touched it uh early this month, the first day of this month when we had a slight further followth through to the collapse last month. You touched the three-month average almost precisely and you rallied 20 bucks off of it. Now you came back and retested today. It's not structurally important. It's just an interesting fact that you haven't even returned to a balance point, a zero line, the three-month average. uh and you know it's likely we'll find support there. Gold did the same thing. Gold broke it by I think about 50 bucks and immediately exploded. So that's what I think we just saw and it was merely a return even on intermediate stuff that said hey this might be a place to buy. Now, when we shrink down to weekly and go to like a three-w weekek average, we blew a structure on weekly on Friday a week ago. And sure enough, instead of a nice selloff, you had a huge sell-off. We've broken that same structure before in weeklys and only had, you know, so so selloff. This time it happened to be big. This week's high rallied back up to the 3-week average, which changed from last week obviously, and bumped our head on it. So on the oscillator, you broke through the zero line, and this week you came back up and bumped it. So what had been prior lows now, bump, you bumped it. You set that level. So, next week with a now falling 3-week average, if you get back above it, the weekly momentum, which had a stumble and broke broke a minor structure, you'll reassert yourself back above the structure saying, "Okay, game over. I'm back up again." And all it takes is getting back up into the upper 80s anytime next week on silver. We'll do that. So, but again, that's shortterm. So don't confuse it with an investment grade position. >> Got it. So um in essence, uh nothing that happened in the past week has you too concerned. Um I have all these questions come to mind whenever I speak to you. Should anyone have been trying to sell a little silver and trade it at 121 or do you think that's counterproductive? We were looking for a midpoint stumble in our couple quarter surge that we expected to have a couple quarters of massive surge back in 79 when that occurred again within that old $50 range though and in 201011 that occurred in the about in the middle of that clock. One was a fivemon surge, one was a sevenmon surge. About in the middle there was a bad month. In case of 79, it didn't actually close down, but you had a stumble that for about six weeks, you could have gone sideways after you stumbled. Okay? So, it didn't go anywhere. And in 2000, in January 2011, you had a massive monthly reversal on a price chart where a price guy said, "That's a key reversal month. It's over." Okay. the next month worked your way back up and what happened on the other side once you cleared that high was more massive than what had happened up to that point. So it was a massive move interrupted by a midpoint stumble. We thought that likely would occur more likely let's say get into three months into the possible couple quarters or instead it happened after month two. So we were a bit surprised by the quickness of it. No, we did not call it. We were anticipating such an event probably late February, early March, but now the game's changed. They moved it up. Okay, fine. Uh we still think that's probably your midpoint stumble. That's not the end of this move. Again, we've got too many metrics that are massive in years. Gold versus S&P, silver S&P, silver versus gold. All these things just occurred in November. You don't break out of a decade wide base and go for two months and say, "Oh, that was it." >> Do you ever try to trade stumbles? >> Oh, yeah. Uh but in this case, I think this is an investment grade move in the monetary metals that you shouldn't trade. >> Okay. >> We've been saying all along that there have been many over the last year 10 and 15% drops in silver that happened like overnight. Okay, this was bigger, okay, admittedly, but they happen very quickly. Used to be they take several weeks to recoup or a month or two. Now they're occurring rapidly. Look at the October stumble we had, for example. There was a sharp sell off in October. I think was like a 15 or more percent drop. It took a couple weeks to get out above that, you know. So, I don't think this stumble is going to last very long. And I the problem with exiting prematurely even in a thing like this is when do you get back in? Do you get back in? When do you get back in? And is it better than where you got out? or if you don't get back in fully, what's on the other side of this is highly likely to be far more gain for you had you not wiggled than what has already occurred by our assessments. Uh we think what's on the other side of this is far greater than what's already occurred. So you have to think about it as an investor. Are you in this for the jiggles, even the sharp ones to avoid? Are you in this on an investment grade? And we're arguing you don't have to wait for years on this either. Highly likely that much of what we're going to get this year will be achieved by summer. >> Now, uh this it's always unfair to ask for targets. Uh but on just very briefly, do you have a target and a time frame >> or do you have either or can you have both? What what's your target or time frame on gold? >> Okay, I'm going to give you two views of reality that are simply price. Okay, if you get a price chart of silver monthly, go back to 75, you'll see that it lived in this half ccentury zone of reality, 50 bucks to four, 50 bucks to four. So, it's about a $45 range. Okay? You add 45 to 50, the arithmetic swing objective of a box like that on a price chart. You take the distance of it and you add it to the top. It says target 95, maybe 100 bucks. Okay? What happened back then? Couple months ago you stumbled in the mid 90s it was repeated selling 93 95. Okay guys saying hey we reached our objective right >> on orthodox methodology. If you take a logarithmic or ratio scale chart of silver same time period you'll see that that range from four to 50 was like a t-fold the dimension. She bought the bottom of that range and went to the top is tenfold from where you bought it to the top and it went back down up and down, you know, for 50 years. Okay. Tenfold on top of 50 is what? >> Gotcha. >> Okay. 500. Okay. Now, you want to take a gold chart. Do the same thing back to 75. It's had bull moves that blow out the prior high on a ratio scale chart of gold, not arithmetic, but ratio. You'll see that both of the prior bull markets, the 1980 peak, the 2011 peak, were eightfold gains, bare low to bullhigh. Silver was still capped at 50 bucks, but gold wasn't capped at each peak. It was an eight-fold gain from bare low to bull high. If we have another eight-fold gain, which is merely matching the dimensions of the prior two bull markets, 1980p, 2011, you'll go to $8,500. >> That's from the 1050 and December six. December 15. >> Yeah. I've put it in a lot of reports, but that's merely replicating >> an old reality you've done twice in gold. Eightfold. Afold. Big deal. You do it again. Look at the conditions out there. the factors in play, the bond market problems, the forex problems, commodities asserting themselves again, a new commodity bull, inflation as many people like to define it, gold's going to top with a five-fold game. Okay? So, even if we just match that, and by the way, we coming up with that number months and months ago. JP Morgan just came out with the same number, 8,000 to 8,500. We find that curious, but even that's not our target. But in the case of silver, if you do the ratio scale of its dimension, you come up with 500. And if you factor in M2, and I haven't done it, but a lot of people have, you come up with several hundred dollars just to match the 1980 high or the 2011 high when you factor in the decay in the money unit, the real buying power, the quantification of the money supply. Uh silver to get back to those realities would be well in the several hundreds. So we keep coming up with numbers that say hey and we also we looked at copper and lead back in the 2005 and 2007 for lead. They broke out of a similar range and when they broke out it literally in a couple quarters they quadrupled in price on their own without help from other markets. They went into a new reality. How come silver was caught in that reality for 50 years? Something smell is there. Okay. Well, it's saying no more. Okay. and it has yet to achieve anything remotely close to what even copper and lead did or to what gold has done over the last 50 years. I think it's about to. So, are there We've sort of covered the upside in terms of confirmation. Are there prices for gold and silver that would concern you on the downside that might be signs or triggers of a failed move or an extended downdraft? When we look at long-term momentum, we have no structures that are nearby. >> Therefore, it is highly unlikely, it's rare indeed, to ever have a market collapse that is not pre-triggered or very closely triggered off of a high. One of the first things I caught before I set up MSA was catching the crash in 87. I didn't catch it in a big way. I bought puts for myself and my futures clients. I was a broker then. Why? because quarterly momentum of the S&P had built a threeyear wide floor at its zero line on the three/arter average. So in August, September of 1987, it was making new price highs. Oh boy, it looks great. Okay. And you oozed off that high in September and in the first week of October, the new quarter, you were down to that structure again. It wasn't going to hold the fourth time. It didn't. We crashed within two weeks. 35% literally in a couple weeks which is definition of a crash that dimension quarterly momentum told you and when that occurred on the price chart you were hardly off the highs compared to where you went at the there was a structure there it explained it >> there's none now >> interesting >> therefore on my methodology a sharp break that doesn't break structure is merely a sharp break >> and when you say structure just for viewers you're talking structure mental structure, a massive uptrend you can define clearly or a flat floor. Neither >> is exists anywhere near where we are. >> All right. Precious metal equities. Can you >> Yeah, >> you could probably talk about them for an hour, but do you have a a couple of >> vastly undervalued to gold? Okay. Now, the XAU index is been around since the 1980s, so we use it. It's the gold and silver miners index. Philadelphia gold and silver miners index. If you go back and look where was XAU in relation to an ounce of gold 1980s, 1990s, 2000 up through 2008. So for multiple decades, it oscillated in its relative value to gold at 25%. Meaning if you divided XAU price into an ounce of gold, the median price of that multi-deade range was 25%. The bottom end of that range was 17 to 18% repeatedly. The upper end was 35%. So let's call third 25% its normal value to gold for decades. In 2015 in the bare market in gold and the miners it dropped to 4% of the price of gold. I mean what do you think? Something that lived at 25% an ounce of gold went to four. It's going to zero. that asset category. The miners were off the page dirt cheap for 11 years. They've bounced and been in a range with multiple lows since at two at 5% and multiple highs above eight. We got up above eight last month. They snapped it back down by the end of the month. So, you didn't break out above the range, but there is a perfect rectangular range spanning back to 2014 that the relative performance of miners is trying to break through. When you break through that ceiling, and I think we're going to, the persistence indicates it to us. you get back up above, let's say above eight and a half% ever again, divide XAU, an ounce of gold, you're breaking out of that massive base at very cheap asset levels. In other words, if you respect gold and silver, why don't you respect the guys that get it out of the ground? They're essential to you having the metal. Okay? And they're still at vastly underpriced levels historically. I would expect them to double if not more in relative performance to an ounce of gold once that breakout occurs. And I suspect that will be an event that occurs during 2026 where the miners beat gold by doublefold. Before we go to oil briefly, um does it matter to you why things happen? Now what do I mean by that? So obviously on silver from what I've read the Chinese speculators the uh algorithmic traders the uh options have been off through the roof in the last couple of weeks. >> So when you come back from a move that's for those reasons and then we could have a different reason like the Fed decided to cut intra meeting or something like that. Do you ever factor in the tenor of the fundamentals or it just doesn't matter? >> No, I mean uh war events for example are I don't like them because if you buy oil based on that like remember the when we nuked the Iranian sites it blew them up. >> There was a big spike in oil up into the 70s and immediately collapsed or anybody bought war news got killed a couple months ago. Yeah. uh instead oils got our breakout level at last month's close and I won't specify what it was but we closed above it. So it said okay I've broken out of a massive momentum base and a massive downtrend as well. There was a horizontal and a trend line. So momentum said I'm awake. You look at a price chart where oil is now you say no big deal. Sort of in the middle of stuff you know but momentum says no I'm waking up. >> This is sort of around 62. the 63 area. Okay. Yeah. And I it would not shock given the structure that we broke out of momentum to have a surge. No, I hope no headlines. Frankly, I don't like headlines. >> Get headlines later. That's fine. Explain it to the late comers. Okay. But you don't want the early buyers to be motivated by headlines because usually it's a trap. Uh but we got a breakout without a headline. Good. Uh it wouldn't shock me to have the first jolt take you into the mid 90s on oil so quickly. >> Wow. Uh well, but that's still cheap. >> Had a high at 130 in 2032. Had a high before that at 140. >> There are a lot of there are a lot of wise guys, as you know, and I know some of them I work with some of them who are convinced oil's going to 40 just because >> I know there's overwhelming consensus. I agree. >> Yeah. Right. >> And they've got their reasons. And uh I don't All I can say is this. Sometimes there's another factor that comes in and it's not the short-term assessment of this that data point or anything like that. It's the relative pricing of that asset to itself >> and the relative pricing of that asset to other assets. And right now oil is off the page dirt cheap in history, >> even to its own price levels. You're not even halfway back to where you were in 2022. >> So don't call it expensive. And going to 40. Yeah. I can understand why they say that, you know, but it's underpriced. Somebody noted heard the other day that relative to silver, it's never before had that kind of relationship. Fine. That's both a reflection of oil's weakness and silver strength. But think of things sometimes in terms of, hey, maybe it's just too dirt cheap. You got to factor in value is distorted by the money unit. So, you know, when your your grandfather built a house, it was 4,500. Your dad built one, it was 45,000. Median home today is 450,000. So, there's an ongoing degradation in the money unit. So, if x number of years ago, oil was 140 and you're 60. Not only is it cheap arithmetically, but if you factor in the money degradation, it's almost free, right? >> So, sometimes that takes over. Okay? Uh that's probably one of the underlying factors in silver as well. >> Uh so you have to sometimes forget that stuff and just look at at value, you know. >> All right. And we're gonna we're going to end soon, but how about a sentence each on the commodity sector as a whole? How do you think? >> Let's just do that and then we'll take a final look at the S&P because I think I understand your S&P view. Do you what's your commodity view generally? is that >> I have positive on the commodity sector since October when Bloomberg closed the month out over 10652. It's our trigger number. It's gone up since then. It's pulled back recently along with the stock market for example, but it's still in bull mode, bull resurrection mode. That first move we had in 2020 to 2022 was its statement, I'm out of here. I'm not going to hell. You know, it used to be $234 Bloomberg 234 points in 2008. It went under 60 in 2020. You think it's going to free? Okay. It reasserted itself by going to 140. Pull back. That was its first statement. I'm alive. Pull back halfway. Stabilized. Proved it wasn't going lower. And now it said, "Okay, second leg now beginning. This is the one that'll upset so many apple carts, political apple carts. uh the central bank won't know whether to go go blind, you know, god, we got to cut rates because the stock market's breaking, which it will. Uh or the bond market's in trouble. We got to print print and oh gosh, we got rising commodities, so we're really messed up here, but we got to do the other. Uh Bloomberg looks like a great investment place to be based on value and technicals and oil, which has been a lagard this time. It was a leader in that 2020 to 2022 surge. This time it's a lagard, but both wheat and oil just joined the Bloomberg with last month's close saying, "Okay, we're out of here, too. It's two essential commodities coming up from very low levels, technically fully justified by our metrics to go much higher over a longer period of time. So, if I were an investor looking for a place to be unleveraged, looking long-term, couple years, I'd be buying commodity related stocks right now. >> Terrific. And then I think to summarize your views on equities, and they're boring. We we focus on the interesting stuff, but the S&P uh I think what you're looking for is a sort of forming top, >> but not calling a top and not calling a collapse. Is that fair? Yeah, I think the top has not been made yet. Uh we've been in a topping process. Yes, we've made higher highs since February of last year. S&P then approached 6,200. Okay, today we're trading in the 6,800s uh uh one year later. Okay, so a gain fine. Same thing happened in 2000 and 2007 when you we declared a top in process. It labored for a year, even made higher highs. But I think we're near the top. But I think the S&P has to go higher first. The Dow has to go higher first. They're intermediate term metrics we look at. The long term says, "Hey, you're doomed. It's just a matter of when we set that thing in motion." The intermediate says, "Nope, we need to go higher first." >> What do you mean by that? What tells >> I mean at least get up like the 7050 to 7100 S&P though several percent, but blow out those recent highs. And if you look at a Dow chart for the last six weeks, it's ludicrous. >> You got all these highs just short of just a flat ceiling. You don't pop that way. Okay, you spike. I I sus I'm suspicious on this. We We'll find out what happens. Supreme Court is going to make a decision and they've been holding off and holding off and everybody's talking February 20th >> on the tariffs. >> Yeah. On the tariffs. Mhm. >> I think the tariff issue is is BS as far as the market topping. They sold into it in January through April based on news. >> You don't top a market that way. It was a new subject matter. Tariffs in place. Oh gosh. Okay. Then he took a 90-day leave on the tariffs. Market rallied. Okay. I would love now to see good news come out that the tariffs are at least in jeopardy because the Supreme Court's getting in his way and stumbling him on that issue. Then the longs could say, "Oh boy, party on. Get that headline off the page. It isn't the reason the market would have topped anyway. It would have topped because it's overpriced. It's gone up too long. Money flows have gone into it for 16 years thanks to the Fed printing money. Interest rates at zero of 10 of those 15 years. Money supply exploding. That's why it went up. That bubble breaks. It's got many reasons. It doesn't need a tariff. And to hit it with the news story is not the way to top it. The best way to top it is to take that news story away. Make everybody happy. And then you top with everybody smiling, not knowing why is it going down. Don't be shocked that that may be the news event that gets us that new high in the S&P. But after that, the downturn, I don't think will be a crash. I think you could have a laborious process of zigzag type decline that won't impact the people who think, "Oh my gosh, if it's going down, I got to sell my miners." Okay. I don't think there's a crash event in the stock market until unless probably later this year you get down toward 5,400 in the S&P. That's a long way below. I don't think you get there quickly. But anyway, as far as the top, look for it soon. Hope I'm cheering for the Supreme Court. >> Does does that mean you see, not to beat this that you see a structure in the S&P? Yeah, there's a structure waiting, but it would require this year to get down toward that level, >> which isn't, you know, remember in April it got down to 4,800. >> So, I'm not talking about taking out the April low. 600 points above there is the danger level, but right now we're not there. And I think to get there, you probably don't do it in a heartbeat. There's no crash event here. And it's only sometimes when you get that kind of event does it affect the monetary metals or the miners. It's not just because the stock market's going down. It's because there's a panic in the stock market. I don't see the panic situation technically until you get down to that 5400. Then there could be panic. But good news. If that's three, four, five months from now, where might silver, gold, and the miners be by then? >> Perfect way to end. So, uh, Michael, thanks for your time. And for wealthy on viewers, structural mo momentum.com, >> uh, MS Oliver MSA, oliverma.com, momentum structural analysis. >> And I encourage everybody to just check out the website and and maybe you can, you know, uh, hassle Michael to give you a few examples of his work. Uh but I really appreciate you're spending time with us and I have to give you kudos one more time. You were four for four uh in Toronto on the 23rd and uh I'm a convert. So we look forward to speaking with you, you know, in three to four months to see how you're doing. >> Thank you, Trey. >> Don't forget to sign up for a free portfolio review with one of our endorsed investment partners at wealthon.comfree. With markets hitting all-time highs, now is a great time to stress test your strategy and be prepared for what comes next. Thank you all for watching. We'll see you again next time.