Market Outlook: The guest expects elevated volatility and a major Growth to Value rotation through 2026–2027, advising caution on overextended risk assets.
Gold Miners: Strong bullish stance on gold equities given central-bank buying, supportive bank forecasts, and minimal mining exposure in the S&P 500, positioning for outperformance.
Silver Miners: More bullish on silver than gold near term; expects silver equities to be significantly mispriced and to crush upcoming earnings as prices consolidate after a sharp rally.
ETFs: Highlights outperformance and positioning in GDX and GDXJ, reflecting a broader rotation from tech into materials and mining.
Stock Picks: Discusses juniors and developers including DNRSF (Denarius Metals), TIG (Triumph Gold), BRC (Blackrock Silver), BCEKF (Bear Creek)/HLSCF (Highlander Silver), USAU (U.S. Gold Corp), and PGEZF (Stillwater Critical Minerals).
Critical Minerals: Policy tailwinds from Project Vault and EXIM support; underscores supply risk and strategic importance for defense/tech, favoring U.S./Canada jurisdictions.
Tungsten: Notes tungsten spot price doubled in ~3 months and China’s dominance (~91%), reinforcing a bullish critical-minerals thesis and U.S. reshoring support.
Risks & Positioning: Short Emerging Markets amid geopolitical uncertainty and protectionism; prefers developers near production with prudent debt/equity financing.
Transcript
If you look at the chart of SPY, S&P 500, it looks like a triple top here. When you look at the S&P 500 just as of December 31st, right? 37 to 38% tech. Guess how many uh get guess get guess the percentage in in mining stocks? 1%. You don't own any mining exposure. You don't own any gold exposure. Like with these charts are kicking butt and you don't you're not participating. these silver equities are going to crush it over the next couple of earnings quarters because >> it's the 12th of February and uh markets are extending their losses. The S&P uh is now at 6,800 points. It's down about 1% from uh the previous trading session. Gold is extending its loss down now 3.5% uh to below $5,000. So we'll talk about what's next for the entire market. John Fenick joins us once more. He is a founder of Fenic Consulting. Welcome back to the show, John. Good to see Yeah, likewise, David. Thanks for having me. >> You have been warning us of volatility for quite some time. You were on the show back in October when I was speaking to you at the conference in Colorado, the Beaver Creek Conference. So, uh, stock markets have been grinding slightly higher since then, moving sideways, and ever since basically this past week, a lot of news about tech selloffs leading the charge. Uh, and now we're seeing heightened volatility across the board. tell us what's happening with the stock markets and I want to get your thoughts on commodities as well. >> Yeah, so I think we were early last year calling for a Q4 kind of correction in the S&P Russell kind of thing. Uh but I feel more confident now that that is going to play out in 2026. Um if you look at the chart of SPY, S&P 500, um it looks like a triple top here. it really didn't have any good uh follow through at all today and we're in the middle of earning season, David, right? So, we're going to get volatility. Um, but I I looked this up for a client. Um, if you look at Tesla, TSLA, and you look at Apple, AAPL, just draw a one-year chart from last year, Jan 1 to December 31st, there's a lot of volatility in those stocks, but you pretty much broke even in some of these names, like if you just bought and held. And that's what we're try trying to relay to people is that this rally started in the broad market in March of09. This is like a gift if you're an investor that you know things don't last usually this long in history where you have 16-year rallies with brief pullbacks, right? So I think a 20% correction in something like the Russell or the S&P this year is not out of the question at all. >> It seems to be AI disruptions are leading the charge when it comes to uh investor fears. Uh we had news that um uh updates to claude for example could wipe out entire ecosystems of software and software stocks went down earlier last week and uh it seems to be AI specific. So as an investor how would you be positioned for a future where every single time we have iterations of AI advancements entire sectors could be at risk. >> Look I mean we've been saying for months now this is not a casino and people treat it like a casino right? you're seeing this kind of selling in the commodity space, which we'll get to in a minute. Um, and it's because people are overextended. They're on margin. They're gambling. This isn't, you know, a casino. You have to look at it and say, "How much can I afford to lose, right?" Like, that's the best way to approach the market at this uh the broad market at this juncture because it's so mature this this this rally. Like, we've had a 16-year plus rally, people. like, you know, take some money off the table and sit on your hands for a bit if nothing else, right? Like this is just uh unprecedented time. So there's going to be a lot of books written about this kind of time period here. >> Yeah. So let's take a look at some of the stocks here. So Palanteer is down about 27% uh already on the year. Uh we have uh 38 actually. So the NASDAQ is down 2.5% uh year to date. Um, and uh, AMD, I'm just pulling up some names in the headlines recently. AMD has not had a good start to the year. Actually beat earnings in the last report, but still down 17% on one trading session. Um, it it seems like this correction is already underway and so it's not future tense anymore. We're living in it right now. Where's the you know, I'm not asking draw up a crystal ball here, but how can we gauge where the bottom may be? What's what's what kind of headlines are you are you are you needing to see? or do you need to see in the news before you can kind of make the assessment that maybe it's time to get back into risk assets? >> Well, you can't listen to things like CNBC. These guys are perennial perennial bulls. Like I mean it you'd have to see like an 089 correction to see these people actually come around to the fact that we're incorrect and as you just suggested, right? Like they're just going to keep keep talking their books and and and you know be bullish, right? So you have to as a client think independently. you need to work with professionals like myself or your financial advisor to to help you a little bit through this time because it is going to get volatile. Um so I I use stockta.com which is a free website to you generate support and resistance levels on any stock. It's free. Okay. >> So you just put in the AMD right as the ticker in the top center and then on the right hand side it'll show you support and resistance for AMD or any stock you want to look at. And it's a good gauge to check yourself. I check myself all the time, David, just to make sure before I buy something or sell something, hey, let me just see where the support is, where the floor is and where the ceiling is, the resistance level. And that will give you more confidence as an investor in terms of where to enter and exit. >> Where do you think we are on the cycle right now? >> Which cycle are you talking, broad market or commodities or? >> Let's talk about stocks first and then we'll move on to commodities in just a bit. >> Yeah, I mean the broad market is way overvalued. We're short the Russell. We're short emerging markets right now. the riskier stuff, right? Because that stuff has done extremely well over time. So, we're taking a concentrated bet against the the risky stuff. I mean, why would you want to be long emerging markets right now when Trump is going after every country nameable, right? Like, it's to me it makes no sense. I hear these arguments all the time on, oh, emerging markets and international are idea this year. Really? Like, look at the headlines. This is huge geopolitical risk we're entering right now. And we're entering an age of protectionism where people are being, you know, countries are being more uh careful with everything they say and do. And you know, this is evidenced by gold, right? Gold since February of 2022 when the Russian war started, you're seeing central bank buying like through the roof. It's not just China, it's India, it's so many names that are taking not just buying it, David, but then taking their gold back from places like the US and Canada, right? And that repatriation is is something that clients don't understand um how important this is, but it's it definitely doesn't bode well for risky emerging markets in my opinion. >> Okay, let's take a look at uh some metals now. Gold is down about 11% from the top. It was down 20% at one point. Are you taking profits if you haven't already on precious metals? >> We have a small physical gold position. It's just over 1%. Um, I buy gold equities, David, and hopefully we can talk about a few names. I mean, my portfolio as of December 31st was 51% gold equities. So, I am taking I am looking at what this chart looks like, which is beautiful to me. You know, a series of higher highs and and and and you know, it if you looked at a 20-year chart, it looks ridiculously good. Um but you know I I would say that gold has some support at you know the recent low which was I believe 44 to 4500 and then of course a big round number like 4,000. Um and we're trading right now at 4900 almost on the nose a little bit above. Um, so there's some downside risk in physical gold, but like when you look at banks this year, UBS yesterday just went to 5,900. Not a small shop. Actually makes pretty accurate calls for a broker dealer on gold and silver historically. JP Morgan's at 6,000, which is insane. Um, insanely good because I'm not a contrarian in that regard. Like I I like to see big banks and broker dealers start to come around to our narrative because that's these guys are powerful, right? Goldman Sachs is at 5,400. BFA is at 6,000. We can go down a list, but let's just say it's in a range of 5,000 to 6,000. Why we're underweight gold given that statement is because we're overweight gold equities. Because if we're right and the banks are right, gold equities are going to crank this year. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about today's sponsor, Monetary Metals. With gold prices having hit all-time highs, we know why people hold gold. It's because it's real money. But what if your gold could do a lot more than just sit in a vault? Well, that's where Monetary Metals comes in. They offer a way for you to earn a yield on your gold paid in physical gold. Through their leasing marketplace, you can earn up to 4% yield per year in gold. That means instead of storing your gold in a vault and letting it sit idle, you can lease it out to vetted businesses in the gold industry and get paid in more gold. Thousands of investors are already earning a monthly yield in gold and silver through monetary medals. So scan the QR code here or go to monetary-meals.com/lin link in the description down below to learn more. Don't just hold gold, put it to work. So let's take a look at gold equities in comparison to some other things. Well, let's take a look at the uh materials index. So that's IYM basic materials ETF uh over the last let's just take 3 months uh up about 24% versus the NASDAQ uh I'll give you the NASDAQs it's down 3 and a.5% on the same period. GDX gold miners ETF from VANC up 23% beating both slightly. Uh the point I'm making is that investors have noticed that there's a bit of a rotation, not a bit, but quite a bit of a rotation from high-tech stocks into materials and mining. And in fact, I read an article on CNBC not too long ago saying that investors are moving in uh away from innovators, 21st century innovators was the words they used in this title in the article, into 19th century businesses like mining and materials, uh industrial, so on and so forth. So moving away from the new into back into the old now that the rotation has already happened though or is in the process of happening what do we do? >> Yeah. So the average portfolio is way overweight growth right now and that's the new you know uh that you just described. So we think you're going to see a major sector rotation in 2026 into 2027 from growthoriented stocks regardless of sector into valueoriented stocks. That's kind of the way I like to articulate it differently than you just did. I I agree with what you're saying. I'm just saying like growth in value is something portfolio managers, hedge funds, private equity, all these guys talk about this. Growth has been kicking values butt for so many years in a row now that it's time. You're seeing this in the last three months right in front of you, right? We don't own IYM, but we own a ton of GDX. Uh GDX is the biggest ETF in mining for gold stocks and it's also mid to large cap in nature. So you're not seeing the small and micro stuff in there. Um the small to midcap one is GDXJ. Um probably looks pretty similar to GDX, but they had outstanding years last year and David I mean when you look at the S&P 500 just as of December 31st, right? 37 to 38% tech. Guess how many uh guess the percentage in in mining stocks? 1% is represented in the S&P. So if you're sitting here watching this and you're saying, "Hey, I have a third of my whole net worth in my 401k and spy. You don't own any mining exposure. You don't own any gold exposure. Like these charts are kicking butt and you don't you're not participating. So you have to work again with a professional that understands this stuff because your traditional portfolio or your traditional advisor in the US at least is not talking about our sector at all. It's amazing. Do you think that maybe institutions are going to eventually have to rotate out of these mining companies that they're uh perhaps more overweighted than now? Let's say they have a certain mandate to maintain a certain sector waiting and now that waiting has expanded beyond their initial allocation um allowance that means they're going to have to take some profits. Are we there yet? >> Absolutely not. No, we're not even close. Um, I I I hear what you're saying and I think it's a good point, but there's more and more people like myself that broke away from Wall Street that are doing it on their own and they they personally I don't have any constraints, right? I don't have to be 80% invested at all times. I don't have to be 5% or less in a stock, right? These are traditional portfolio manager characteristics in the US, right? And they have to follow these guidelines. I get it. But there's more and more people breaking away and going independent. Like we finished the year last year up uh 153% on the on our retail and a lot of that was from our silver position which was 17.8% at the end of last year. So we just bought and held all the way up David and we started to sell here in January February because we just had too much of an overweight. >> China's Let's take a look at this headline here. China's central bank is buying gold for the 15th consecutive month. Now, at what point does uh central bank buying stop is my first question. Um and then we'll move on. I why first of all, you know, let's take a look at why they're buying and why they would stop. >> The why to stop would be the US and China getting along, right? Which is not happening in my opinion. >> Sure. >> I mean, we did sign the quote unquote agreement on critical minerals like rare earth and antimony and stuff in November with China, but I mean, that's a joke. That's an absolute joke. We we've been taking the other side of the the trade and buying rare earth, buying tungsten, buying ants and money stocks right now because you're not going to get a a chance like this when people are talking down these little sub sectors. I mean, just look at the price, David. Look at the spot price of tungsten. It's gone from 673 on average spot to 1375 last week uh since the agreement. So in three months to the day almost the the price of tungsten has gone up a 100 plus percent. Not the stocks just the spot price. So what is that telling you? It's telling you that we are at a point where we're short short supply on some of these metals and minerals. And that's why USXM and Trump uh you know are starting to spend so much money in the critical mineral space. >> This is a pretty interesting index here. World uncertainty index global GDP weighted average. It is now at the highest level on record. Higher than after 9/11, higher than after the great recession of 2008. Higher than CO. >> Wow. >> By almost double. >> Yeah. >> And it's defined here. This is the St. Louis Fed. defined as uh index determines uncertainty using the frequency of the self-same word in the quarterly economist intelligence unit country reports. Uh uncertainty has been front and center on uh CEO's minds by the way off topic at the conference board when they conduct their CEO surveys. But okay, uncertainty as a theme. How correlated is this with gold and central bank buying of gold? uh heavily. So gold loves uncertainty. It loves bad news. I mean globally, right? Like uh right now you're seeing gold trade. I think there's two camps, David. There's people that believe in gold and silver like Stan Draenor, Ray Dalio, myself, you know, people that clearly I have nothing, you know, net worth compared to these guys, >> but but there's a lot of smart valueoriented people that have our back now, which is really different from when we you and I met a number of years ago. Like our sector was struggling then. It is not struggling from a sentiment perspective now. Um I think gold is here to stay like any pullbacks are being bought generally. Um, I don't see us getting back into anything with like 3500 or lower, you know? I mean, that that would be a black swan event that neither you or I could really foresee. But that uncertainty that you just showed is really interesting because that's the backdrop and yet the broad market is cranking like until this week, right? Like it's really disconnected. >> What about silver? You told us last September on my show that uh $50 silver adjusted for inflation is really about $68 to $70. So, now that we've blown past $100 at some point, $122, uh, before it topped, uh, what's a fair value today, you think? >> Yeah. And and in fairness, that was like 2011, 2012's inflation adjusted, >> not 1980. 1980 would be, you know, whatever 150 plus, right? So, I still think silver is going higher this year. Um, it's currently at 75 on the nose when we started recording. So from 75 it hit 121, right? So that's your new resistance level, right? 115 to 121, right? Somewhere in there. Um are we going to hit that again this year? I believe so. And so these silver equities are completely mispriced. Um I mean some of the names I follow were down 10 to 14% today um in the silver equity space because silver was down huge, right? So that's normal. But what's interesting, David, is these silver equities, especially the juniors, didn't participate as much as you would have thought when silver was ripping higher, right? And now they're participating just as badly as silver on the way down. We call that taking the stairs up and the elevator down, right? Like that's not a good thing. It's not a good feeling as an investor. I know there's frustration from investors about this. All I can tell you is think about silver just trending here from 70 to 90 for a while. Like these silver equities are going to crush it over the next couple of earnings quarters because they're all in sustaining cost on average is like 20 bucks. Like I mean, you know, we we just saw silver do this, right? If you were to pull up a chart of silver, you'll see it looks like a hockey stick. Um but now it's consolidating and trying to find its footing. And that's normal in a in a in a huge rally. >> Okay. And between gold and silver, which one do you like more right now? >> Absolutely. Silver. Um because we had too high of a rally too fast and now we're seeing these ridiculous 10 to 13% corrections on a daily basis sometimes. I mean, this is a metal. This isn't a stock. It's a a very needed metal. When I look at physical deliveries for March and certain months, like there's no there's no physical out there. Like I mean there could be a real shortage of silver this year, not ne next year. >> Let's talk about some stocks now. Mining stocks before we get into specific names that you're currently holding. Tell us about how you pick mining stocks. The GDX and GDXJ have both risen tremendously. In in a world where the bullion is rising and the entire index is going up 150% in a year, >> one has to wonder why we have to even pick stocks to begin with. Why not just buy the entire index? So clearly you have a methodology. >> Yeah, sure. In a year like last year, I totally agree with you. GDX and J were primed to rip and they did rip. Um I think GDX was up about 155 and GDXJ was up about 173. Um I was up 153. So I underperformed slightly um and greatly on GDXJ because again that's an ETF that's fully invested at all times. David, right? Frictional cash. We would carry 8 to 10% cash on a given month because we want to have cash on hand for corrections like we saw today. Um but you know when you look at our beta our risk level we were at a 0.51 over the last three years and my average annual return is 58% on which is crushing GDX and J with less risk right so we look at risk and return it's not just about return um so yeah I mean look gold equities are 51% of our our everything as of December 31st part of that is by owning stuff like GDX and J Part of it is by owning some juniors no one's ever heard of before or very few people have heard of before. I can I can give you one or two. Um, Daenerius Metals, DNR RSF in the States, DM T in Canada. I'm actually flying to Colombia, which is rare for me to go and put a hard hat on and check out a mine. But this is how much conviction I have in this stock because it's absolutely getting trashed right now. They have a ton of warrants that were being exercised. And when you exercise warrants, David, you know this. I mean, you put selling pressure on the stock, right? But now you have days like today, which is compounding that selling pressure and the stock is just mispriced here at 39 cents US or 40 cents US. It's ridiculous. Um, so we own that stock because they're already a gold producer, right? There's only like 175 companies out there producing gold in total. Like it's, you know, very advanced for what it has. and they're going into production in a second mine in Spain by June. So, we see a lot of upside there. Another one would be Triumph Gold. Um, that one is TIGCF in the States and TIG in Canada. Um, they haven't put out news in quite a while, but I keep in touch with a company every month and these guys have a lot planned for this year, meaning they've bought a mine in in Utah in in the USA for silver production. um they're they're going to drill it obviously first go through the development process and then go into production years from now, right? So they can't capture today's silver price. No exploration company really can do that, right? But they have 2 million ounces of gold almost in the Yukon and they have a ton of tungsten which I love as a byproduct up there. Um and the stock is trading, you know, 50 cents. I mean there's just so much value in some of these names. Um so yeah those are two that we like in the gold space. >> Do you usually prefer developers or juniors in the exploration phase? In other words, which phase of the exploration and development process do you target? Um yeah before they get their PA after right right before they start going to production? >> Um there's a lot of value to own developers right now and the closer to production the better because they're going to be able to realize these high prices, right? Um, so we in the silver space, we own a developer called Black Rockck Silver, BKRRF in the States and BRC in Canada. They have 108 million ounces of silver equivalent in Nevada. They just got 15 million bucks from Eric Sprat and one other investor just a few weeks ago. Um, so they're cashed up. They're in the right state. Uh, Andrew told me in an interview that he thinks that they could be in a construction decision in 15 to 16 months from right now. So, like there's a stock that will benefit, right? They're close enough to production that they will benefit from this non-dilutive money that Trump is handing out to people in the US. Um, another development stock that that we just, you know, literally interviewed, I don't know, 3 weeks ago was Bear Creek, uh, BC EKF in the States. Uh, Bear Creek is already getting bought by Highlander Silver next week, which is HLSCF. We think that deal goes through. Um Dan Earl, the new CEO of the combined company was saying that, you know, there's really not a lot of push back on this merger. So when you see a stock like that at 58, you're like, okay, they have 300 million ounces of silver, David, that makes it one of the top 10 largest undeveloped silver projects out there. But they have an advanced report on this on this project. It's called Karani that they put out in 2019. Why haven't they updated it? because they couldn't get it to production Bear Creek, right? So now they're merging with a company called Highlander that can get it to production. And these are the things you have to kind of look for as an investor. >> When when we talk about a company getting into production, that's very costly. Sometimes I've talked I talked to a lot of mining companies like the capex alone exceeds your market cap by orders of magnitude. you know, how as an investor, >> how do you pick companies that are going to, I guess, responsibly finance this transition without diluting your shares to zero? >> That's a great question. Uh, I'm totally on board with that statement. I think some of these companies are way over their skis. Like, if you look at some of these nickel companies that need like a billion dollars and and they're trading at 15 cents, like who's who's showing up to fund this thing, right? I mean, it's a total flyer. Um, US gold is a good example. Okay, so that's USAU. I talk to George and his team monthly. It's my largest gold holding in full disclosure. The reason is they're in Wyoming and they have a big capex, right? So I'm I'm concerned as an investor. I want to make sure they're going to do the right thing for shareholders. And in talking to George, he's like, "Look, John, I don't have to take 100% equity. I could take a portion in debt." And that makes really good sense to me, right? And we're entering a market now where a year ago they may have struggled to raise that money, but now you're seeing Andian raised $96 million a few weeks ago. SilverX raised $60 million a few weeks ago. These juniors are raising money with like very little trouble because there's more and more interest in our sector. So I think USA gets over the finish line in Wyoming and and does it without a ton of dilution. Do you have to pick just finishing up here management teams uh that want to go into production maybe they don't have an experience or a lot of experience as operators what do you do then as an investor >> you need to talk to the CEO to find out what their game plan is because some teams can just be bought right like Nex Gold NXGCF in in the states they have a great team they can develop either of their two gold projects they have 7 million ounces of gold that's really exciting some projects I totally agree with you they don't have the team yet. And then you have to call them and say, "What's the game plan?" That's something that Don Drett and I ask on every single interview. What's the game plan for the next two years? Not for 6 months, two-year minimum. I want to see what you're going to do for me as a shareholder to get us to the finish line. And if you're saying to me, "Hey, we're just interested in selling this for a 25 to 30% premium," then I'm out of the stock. I'm not looking for 25%. There's too much risk, right? I mean, I I want to I want to see a path to production. >> Okay. Uh, finally, I want to get your thoughts on this piece of news. On the 2nd of February, so a couple weeks ago, Trump announced Project Vault. It's a landmark initiative led by the chairman of the Export Import Bank of the US, which marks an unprecedented step in US industrial policy by establishing a domestic strategic reserve for critical minerals. The EXIM board of directors approved a direct loan of up to 10 billion for project vault. Uh let's just finish the conversation on here. What are they planning to do and how does this in impact you as an investor? >> Sure. Well, if you looked at a prior news release from November about US XM, they announced a hundred billion dollars going towards critical minerals and energy uh including nuclear energy, right? That kicked things off in November. This is a followup to that. So that adds up to $1212 billion USD that's being thrown at critical minerals. Like very exciting for anyone invested in the critical mineral space. Um this this is telling you as an investor that Trump and and the US in general is serious about competing with China. Now whether or not they get there, that's the $64,000 question. I still think you need a lot more investment to get, you know, relatively competitive with China. Why? Because China produces 91% of the world's tungsten. It produces 65% of the world's tallarium. They have like a a a complete and utter like dominance in certain metals. And by the way, David, many of these are used in defense and technology, two very hot sectors, right? So, Trump got the the executive order out last March, and now you're starting to see followup um like through news releases that you just saw there. Um we like a couple of Critical Minerals names, and I'll I'll wrap it up. Um, we like PGE ZF in the States, which is Stillwater. They're in Montana. Um, really, really cheap stock here at 29 cents. They just hit 50 cents a few weeks ago. I mean, they're down 42% in in a couple of weeks on no bad news. It's crazy. Um, another one we've mentioned on your show before is Power Metallic, uh, PNPNF in the States, PNPN in Canada. They have the best copper hole hits I've seen in 2024 or 2025 from any junior out there. Um, and they have a lot of critical minerals like platinum and other things in their deposit in Canada. And lastly is Sydney. Uh, Sydney Resources is SDRC trading again at 29 cents. I mean, these guys are in Idaho. This isn't the Congo, you know, like this is a real jurisdiction that's being more and more supportive of mining and and writing checks that are non-dilutive to companies like this. >> Okay, perfect. Thank you for sharing your uh um thoughts and disclosing your portfolio for us. It's very educational. We'll uh we'll end it here. John, where can we follow your work? >> Yeah, thanks. It's fennic consulting.com and uh if you go to performance, you can see our track record for 10 years. Um there's a ton of information there for investors. >> Yeah, absolutely. We're not giving financial advice, but we're giving investors an opportunity to learn from professional investors like John what they are doing. So do your own due diligence and make sure to follow the channel for more updates daily. Thank you, John, for your time today. We'll speak again soon. >> Thanks a lot, David. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
‘Triple Top’ Patterns Signals 20% Crash Ahead, Investor Warns | John Feneck
Summary
Transcript
If you look at the chart of SPY, S&P 500, it looks like a triple top here. When you look at the S&P 500 just as of December 31st, right? 37 to 38% tech. Guess how many uh get guess get guess the percentage in in mining stocks? 1%. You don't own any mining exposure. You don't own any gold exposure. Like with these charts are kicking butt and you don't you're not participating. these silver equities are going to crush it over the next couple of earnings quarters because >> it's the 12th of February and uh markets are extending their losses. The S&P uh is now at 6,800 points. It's down about 1% from uh the previous trading session. Gold is extending its loss down now 3.5% uh to below $5,000. So we'll talk about what's next for the entire market. John Fenick joins us once more. He is a founder of Fenic Consulting. Welcome back to the show, John. Good to see Yeah, likewise, David. Thanks for having me. >> You have been warning us of volatility for quite some time. You were on the show back in October when I was speaking to you at the conference in Colorado, the Beaver Creek Conference. So, uh, stock markets have been grinding slightly higher since then, moving sideways, and ever since basically this past week, a lot of news about tech selloffs leading the charge. Uh, and now we're seeing heightened volatility across the board. tell us what's happening with the stock markets and I want to get your thoughts on commodities as well. >> Yeah, so I think we were early last year calling for a Q4 kind of correction in the S&P Russell kind of thing. Uh but I feel more confident now that that is going to play out in 2026. Um if you look at the chart of SPY, S&P 500, um it looks like a triple top here. it really didn't have any good uh follow through at all today and we're in the middle of earning season, David, right? So, we're going to get volatility. Um, but I I looked this up for a client. Um, if you look at Tesla, TSLA, and you look at Apple, AAPL, just draw a one-year chart from last year, Jan 1 to December 31st, there's a lot of volatility in those stocks, but you pretty much broke even in some of these names, like if you just bought and held. And that's what we're try trying to relay to people is that this rally started in the broad market in March of09. This is like a gift if you're an investor that you know things don't last usually this long in history where you have 16-year rallies with brief pullbacks, right? So I think a 20% correction in something like the Russell or the S&P this year is not out of the question at all. >> It seems to be AI disruptions are leading the charge when it comes to uh investor fears. Uh we had news that um uh updates to claude for example could wipe out entire ecosystems of software and software stocks went down earlier last week and uh it seems to be AI specific. So as an investor how would you be positioned for a future where every single time we have iterations of AI advancements entire sectors could be at risk. >> Look I mean we've been saying for months now this is not a casino and people treat it like a casino right? you're seeing this kind of selling in the commodity space, which we'll get to in a minute. Um, and it's because people are overextended. They're on margin. They're gambling. This isn't, you know, a casino. You have to look at it and say, "How much can I afford to lose, right?" Like, that's the best way to approach the market at this uh the broad market at this juncture because it's so mature this this this rally. Like, we've had a 16-year plus rally, people. like, you know, take some money off the table and sit on your hands for a bit if nothing else, right? Like this is just uh unprecedented time. So there's going to be a lot of books written about this kind of time period here. >> Yeah. So let's take a look at some of the stocks here. So Palanteer is down about 27% uh already on the year. Uh we have uh 38 actually. So the NASDAQ is down 2.5% uh year to date. Um, and uh, AMD, I'm just pulling up some names in the headlines recently. AMD has not had a good start to the year. Actually beat earnings in the last report, but still down 17% on one trading session. Um, it it seems like this correction is already underway and so it's not future tense anymore. We're living in it right now. Where's the you know, I'm not asking draw up a crystal ball here, but how can we gauge where the bottom may be? What's what's what kind of headlines are you are you are you needing to see? or do you need to see in the news before you can kind of make the assessment that maybe it's time to get back into risk assets? >> Well, you can't listen to things like CNBC. These guys are perennial perennial bulls. Like I mean it you'd have to see like an 089 correction to see these people actually come around to the fact that we're incorrect and as you just suggested, right? Like they're just going to keep keep talking their books and and and you know be bullish, right? So you have to as a client think independently. you need to work with professionals like myself or your financial advisor to to help you a little bit through this time because it is going to get volatile. Um so I I use stockta.com which is a free website to you generate support and resistance levels on any stock. It's free. Okay. >> So you just put in the AMD right as the ticker in the top center and then on the right hand side it'll show you support and resistance for AMD or any stock you want to look at. And it's a good gauge to check yourself. I check myself all the time, David, just to make sure before I buy something or sell something, hey, let me just see where the support is, where the floor is and where the ceiling is, the resistance level. And that will give you more confidence as an investor in terms of where to enter and exit. >> Where do you think we are on the cycle right now? >> Which cycle are you talking, broad market or commodities or? >> Let's talk about stocks first and then we'll move on to commodities in just a bit. >> Yeah, I mean the broad market is way overvalued. We're short the Russell. We're short emerging markets right now. the riskier stuff, right? Because that stuff has done extremely well over time. So, we're taking a concentrated bet against the the risky stuff. I mean, why would you want to be long emerging markets right now when Trump is going after every country nameable, right? Like, it's to me it makes no sense. I hear these arguments all the time on, oh, emerging markets and international are idea this year. Really? Like, look at the headlines. This is huge geopolitical risk we're entering right now. And we're entering an age of protectionism where people are being, you know, countries are being more uh careful with everything they say and do. And you know, this is evidenced by gold, right? Gold since February of 2022 when the Russian war started, you're seeing central bank buying like through the roof. It's not just China, it's India, it's so many names that are taking not just buying it, David, but then taking their gold back from places like the US and Canada, right? And that repatriation is is something that clients don't understand um how important this is, but it's it definitely doesn't bode well for risky emerging markets in my opinion. >> Okay, let's take a look at uh some metals now. Gold is down about 11% from the top. It was down 20% at one point. Are you taking profits if you haven't already on precious metals? >> We have a small physical gold position. It's just over 1%. Um, I buy gold equities, David, and hopefully we can talk about a few names. I mean, my portfolio as of December 31st was 51% gold equities. So, I am taking I am looking at what this chart looks like, which is beautiful to me. You know, a series of higher highs and and and and you know, it if you looked at a 20-year chart, it looks ridiculously good. Um but you know I I would say that gold has some support at you know the recent low which was I believe 44 to 4500 and then of course a big round number like 4,000. Um and we're trading right now at 4900 almost on the nose a little bit above. Um, so there's some downside risk in physical gold, but like when you look at banks this year, UBS yesterday just went to 5,900. Not a small shop. Actually makes pretty accurate calls for a broker dealer on gold and silver historically. JP Morgan's at 6,000, which is insane. Um, insanely good because I'm not a contrarian in that regard. Like I I like to see big banks and broker dealers start to come around to our narrative because that's these guys are powerful, right? Goldman Sachs is at 5,400. BFA is at 6,000. We can go down a list, but let's just say it's in a range of 5,000 to 6,000. Why we're underweight gold given that statement is because we're overweight gold equities. Because if we're right and the banks are right, gold equities are going to crank this year. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about today's sponsor, Monetary Metals. With gold prices having hit all-time highs, we know why people hold gold. It's because it's real money. But what if your gold could do a lot more than just sit in a vault? Well, that's where Monetary Metals comes in. They offer a way for you to earn a yield on your gold paid in physical gold. Through their leasing marketplace, you can earn up to 4% yield per year in gold. That means instead of storing your gold in a vault and letting it sit idle, you can lease it out to vetted businesses in the gold industry and get paid in more gold. Thousands of investors are already earning a monthly yield in gold and silver through monetary medals. So scan the QR code here or go to monetary-meals.com/lin link in the description down below to learn more. Don't just hold gold, put it to work. So let's take a look at gold equities in comparison to some other things. Well, let's take a look at the uh materials index. So that's IYM basic materials ETF uh over the last let's just take 3 months uh up about 24% versus the NASDAQ uh I'll give you the NASDAQs it's down 3 and a.5% on the same period. GDX gold miners ETF from VANC up 23% beating both slightly. Uh the point I'm making is that investors have noticed that there's a bit of a rotation, not a bit, but quite a bit of a rotation from high-tech stocks into materials and mining. And in fact, I read an article on CNBC not too long ago saying that investors are moving in uh away from innovators, 21st century innovators was the words they used in this title in the article, into 19th century businesses like mining and materials, uh industrial, so on and so forth. So moving away from the new into back into the old now that the rotation has already happened though or is in the process of happening what do we do? >> Yeah. So the average portfolio is way overweight growth right now and that's the new you know uh that you just described. So we think you're going to see a major sector rotation in 2026 into 2027 from growthoriented stocks regardless of sector into valueoriented stocks. That's kind of the way I like to articulate it differently than you just did. I I agree with what you're saying. I'm just saying like growth in value is something portfolio managers, hedge funds, private equity, all these guys talk about this. Growth has been kicking values butt for so many years in a row now that it's time. You're seeing this in the last three months right in front of you, right? We don't own IYM, but we own a ton of GDX. Uh GDX is the biggest ETF in mining for gold stocks and it's also mid to large cap in nature. So you're not seeing the small and micro stuff in there. Um the small to midcap one is GDXJ. Um probably looks pretty similar to GDX, but they had outstanding years last year and David I mean when you look at the S&P 500 just as of December 31st, right? 37 to 38% tech. Guess how many uh guess the percentage in in mining stocks? 1% is represented in the S&P. So if you're sitting here watching this and you're saying, "Hey, I have a third of my whole net worth in my 401k and spy. You don't own any mining exposure. You don't own any gold exposure. Like these charts are kicking butt and you don't you're not participating. So you have to work again with a professional that understands this stuff because your traditional portfolio or your traditional advisor in the US at least is not talking about our sector at all. It's amazing. Do you think that maybe institutions are going to eventually have to rotate out of these mining companies that they're uh perhaps more overweighted than now? Let's say they have a certain mandate to maintain a certain sector waiting and now that waiting has expanded beyond their initial allocation um allowance that means they're going to have to take some profits. Are we there yet? >> Absolutely not. No, we're not even close. Um, I I I hear what you're saying and I think it's a good point, but there's more and more people like myself that broke away from Wall Street that are doing it on their own and they they personally I don't have any constraints, right? I don't have to be 80% invested at all times. I don't have to be 5% or less in a stock, right? These are traditional portfolio manager characteristics in the US, right? And they have to follow these guidelines. I get it. But there's more and more people breaking away and going independent. Like we finished the year last year up uh 153% on the on our retail and a lot of that was from our silver position which was 17.8% at the end of last year. So we just bought and held all the way up David and we started to sell here in January February because we just had too much of an overweight. >> China's Let's take a look at this headline here. China's central bank is buying gold for the 15th consecutive month. Now, at what point does uh central bank buying stop is my first question. Um and then we'll move on. I why first of all, you know, let's take a look at why they're buying and why they would stop. >> The why to stop would be the US and China getting along, right? Which is not happening in my opinion. >> Sure. >> I mean, we did sign the quote unquote agreement on critical minerals like rare earth and antimony and stuff in November with China, but I mean, that's a joke. That's an absolute joke. We we've been taking the other side of the the trade and buying rare earth, buying tungsten, buying ants and money stocks right now because you're not going to get a a chance like this when people are talking down these little sub sectors. I mean, just look at the price, David. Look at the spot price of tungsten. It's gone from 673 on average spot to 1375 last week uh since the agreement. So in three months to the day almost the the price of tungsten has gone up a 100 plus percent. Not the stocks just the spot price. So what is that telling you? It's telling you that we are at a point where we're short short supply on some of these metals and minerals. And that's why USXM and Trump uh you know are starting to spend so much money in the critical mineral space. >> This is a pretty interesting index here. World uncertainty index global GDP weighted average. It is now at the highest level on record. Higher than after 9/11, higher than after the great recession of 2008. Higher than CO. >> Wow. >> By almost double. >> Yeah. >> And it's defined here. This is the St. Louis Fed. defined as uh index determines uncertainty using the frequency of the self-same word in the quarterly economist intelligence unit country reports. Uh uncertainty has been front and center on uh CEO's minds by the way off topic at the conference board when they conduct their CEO surveys. But okay, uncertainty as a theme. How correlated is this with gold and central bank buying of gold? uh heavily. So gold loves uncertainty. It loves bad news. I mean globally, right? Like uh right now you're seeing gold trade. I think there's two camps, David. There's people that believe in gold and silver like Stan Draenor, Ray Dalio, myself, you know, people that clearly I have nothing, you know, net worth compared to these guys, >> but but there's a lot of smart valueoriented people that have our back now, which is really different from when we you and I met a number of years ago. Like our sector was struggling then. It is not struggling from a sentiment perspective now. Um I think gold is here to stay like any pullbacks are being bought generally. Um, I don't see us getting back into anything with like 3500 or lower, you know? I mean, that that would be a black swan event that neither you or I could really foresee. But that uncertainty that you just showed is really interesting because that's the backdrop and yet the broad market is cranking like until this week, right? Like it's really disconnected. >> What about silver? You told us last September on my show that uh $50 silver adjusted for inflation is really about $68 to $70. So, now that we've blown past $100 at some point, $122, uh, before it topped, uh, what's a fair value today, you think? >> Yeah. And and in fairness, that was like 2011, 2012's inflation adjusted, >> not 1980. 1980 would be, you know, whatever 150 plus, right? So, I still think silver is going higher this year. Um, it's currently at 75 on the nose when we started recording. So from 75 it hit 121, right? So that's your new resistance level, right? 115 to 121, right? Somewhere in there. Um are we going to hit that again this year? I believe so. And so these silver equities are completely mispriced. Um I mean some of the names I follow were down 10 to 14% today um in the silver equity space because silver was down huge, right? So that's normal. But what's interesting, David, is these silver equities, especially the juniors, didn't participate as much as you would have thought when silver was ripping higher, right? And now they're participating just as badly as silver on the way down. We call that taking the stairs up and the elevator down, right? Like that's not a good thing. It's not a good feeling as an investor. I know there's frustration from investors about this. All I can tell you is think about silver just trending here from 70 to 90 for a while. Like these silver equities are going to crush it over the next couple of earnings quarters because they're all in sustaining cost on average is like 20 bucks. Like I mean, you know, we we just saw silver do this, right? If you were to pull up a chart of silver, you'll see it looks like a hockey stick. Um but now it's consolidating and trying to find its footing. And that's normal in a in a in a huge rally. >> Okay. And between gold and silver, which one do you like more right now? >> Absolutely. Silver. Um because we had too high of a rally too fast and now we're seeing these ridiculous 10 to 13% corrections on a daily basis sometimes. I mean, this is a metal. This isn't a stock. It's a a very needed metal. When I look at physical deliveries for March and certain months, like there's no there's no physical out there. Like I mean there could be a real shortage of silver this year, not ne next year. >> Let's talk about some stocks now. Mining stocks before we get into specific names that you're currently holding. Tell us about how you pick mining stocks. The GDX and GDXJ have both risen tremendously. In in a world where the bullion is rising and the entire index is going up 150% in a year, >> one has to wonder why we have to even pick stocks to begin with. Why not just buy the entire index? So clearly you have a methodology. >> Yeah, sure. In a year like last year, I totally agree with you. GDX and J were primed to rip and they did rip. Um I think GDX was up about 155 and GDXJ was up about 173. Um I was up 153. So I underperformed slightly um and greatly on GDXJ because again that's an ETF that's fully invested at all times. David, right? Frictional cash. We would carry 8 to 10% cash on a given month because we want to have cash on hand for corrections like we saw today. Um but you know when you look at our beta our risk level we were at a 0.51 over the last three years and my average annual return is 58% on which is crushing GDX and J with less risk right so we look at risk and return it's not just about return um so yeah I mean look gold equities are 51% of our our everything as of December 31st part of that is by owning stuff like GDX and J Part of it is by owning some juniors no one's ever heard of before or very few people have heard of before. I can I can give you one or two. Um, Daenerius Metals, DNR RSF in the States, DM T in Canada. I'm actually flying to Colombia, which is rare for me to go and put a hard hat on and check out a mine. But this is how much conviction I have in this stock because it's absolutely getting trashed right now. They have a ton of warrants that were being exercised. And when you exercise warrants, David, you know this. I mean, you put selling pressure on the stock, right? But now you have days like today, which is compounding that selling pressure and the stock is just mispriced here at 39 cents US or 40 cents US. It's ridiculous. Um, so we own that stock because they're already a gold producer, right? There's only like 175 companies out there producing gold in total. Like it's, you know, very advanced for what it has. and they're going into production in a second mine in Spain by June. So, we see a lot of upside there. Another one would be Triumph Gold. Um, that one is TIGCF in the States and TIG in Canada. Um, they haven't put out news in quite a while, but I keep in touch with a company every month and these guys have a lot planned for this year, meaning they've bought a mine in in Utah in in the USA for silver production. um they're they're going to drill it obviously first go through the development process and then go into production years from now, right? So they can't capture today's silver price. No exploration company really can do that, right? But they have 2 million ounces of gold almost in the Yukon and they have a ton of tungsten which I love as a byproduct up there. Um and the stock is trading, you know, 50 cents. I mean there's just so much value in some of these names. Um so yeah those are two that we like in the gold space. >> Do you usually prefer developers or juniors in the exploration phase? In other words, which phase of the exploration and development process do you target? Um yeah before they get their PA after right right before they start going to production? >> Um there's a lot of value to own developers right now and the closer to production the better because they're going to be able to realize these high prices, right? Um, so we in the silver space, we own a developer called Black Rockck Silver, BKRRF in the States and BRC in Canada. They have 108 million ounces of silver equivalent in Nevada. They just got 15 million bucks from Eric Sprat and one other investor just a few weeks ago. Um, so they're cashed up. They're in the right state. Uh, Andrew told me in an interview that he thinks that they could be in a construction decision in 15 to 16 months from right now. So, like there's a stock that will benefit, right? They're close enough to production that they will benefit from this non-dilutive money that Trump is handing out to people in the US. Um, another development stock that that we just, you know, literally interviewed, I don't know, 3 weeks ago was Bear Creek, uh, BC EKF in the States. Uh, Bear Creek is already getting bought by Highlander Silver next week, which is HLSCF. We think that deal goes through. Um Dan Earl, the new CEO of the combined company was saying that, you know, there's really not a lot of push back on this merger. So when you see a stock like that at 58, you're like, okay, they have 300 million ounces of silver, David, that makes it one of the top 10 largest undeveloped silver projects out there. But they have an advanced report on this on this project. It's called Karani that they put out in 2019. Why haven't they updated it? because they couldn't get it to production Bear Creek, right? So now they're merging with a company called Highlander that can get it to production. And these are the things you have to kind of look for as an investor. >> When when we talk about a company getting into production, that's very costly. Sometimes I've talked I talked to a lot of mining companies like the capex alone exceeds your market cap by orders of magnitude. you know, how as an investor, >> how do you pick companies that are going to, I guess, responsibly finance this transition without diluting your shares to zero? >> That's a great question. Uh, I'm totally on board with that statement. I think some of these companies are way over their skis. Like, if you look at some of these nickel companies that need like a billion dollars and and they're trading at 15 cents, like who's who's showing up to fund this thing, right? I mean, it's a total flyer. Um, US gold is a good example. Okay, so that's USAU. I talk to George and his team monthly. It's my largest gold holding in full disclosure. The reason is they're in Wyoming and they have a big capex, right? So I'm I'm concerned as an investor. I want to make sure they're going to do the right thing for shareholders. And in talking to George, he's like, "Look, John, I don't have to take 100% equity. I could take a portion in debt." And that makes really good sense to me, right? And we're entering a market now where a year ago they may have struggled to raise that money, but now you're seeing Andian raised $96 million a few weeks ago. SilverX raised $60 million a few weeks ago. These juniors are raising money with like very little trouble because there's more and more interest in our sector. So I think USA gets over the finish line in Wyoming and and does it without a ton of dilution. Do you have to pick just finishing up here management teams uh that want to go into production maybe they don't have an experience or a lot of experience as operators what do you do then as an investor >> you need to talk to the CEO to find out what their game plan is because some teams can just be bought right like Nex Gold NXGCF in in the states they have a great team they can develop either of their two gold projects they have 7 million ounces of gold that's really exciting some projects I totally agree with you they don't have the team yet. And then you have to call them and say, "What's the game plan?" That's something that Don Drett and I ask on every single interview. What's the game plan for the next two years? Not for 6 months, two-year minimum. I want to see what you're going to do for me as a shareholder to get us to the finish line. And if you're saying to me, "Hey, we're just interested in selling this for a 25 to 30% premium," then I'm out of the stock. I'm not looking for 25%. There's too much risk, right? I mean, I I want to I want to see a path to production. >> Okay. Uh, finally, I want to get your thoughts on this piece of news. On the 2nd of February, so a couple weeks ago, Trump announced Project Vault. It's a landmark initiative led by the chairman of the Export Import Bank of the US, which marks an unprecedented step in US industrial policy by establishing a domestic strategic reserve for critical minerals. The EXIM board of directors approved a direct loan of up to 10 billion for project vault. Uh let's just finish the conversation on here. What are they planning to do and how does this in impact you as an investor? >> Sure. Well, if you looked at a prior news release from November about US XM, they announced a hundred billion dollars going towards critical minerals and energy uh including nuclear energy, right? That kicked things off in November. This is a followup to that. So that adds up to $1212 billion USD that's being thrown at critical minerals. Like very exciting for anyone invested in the critical mineral space. Um this this is telling you as an investor that Trump and and the US in general is serious about competing with China. Now whether or not they get there, that's the $64,000 question. I still think you need a lot more investment to get, you know, relatively competitive with China. Why? Because China produces 91% of the world's tungsten. It produces 65% of the world's tallarium. They have like a a a complete and utter like dominance in certain metals. And by the way, David, many of these are used in defense and technology, two very hot sectors, right? So, Trump got the the executive order out last March, and now you're starting to see followup um like through news releases that you just saw there. Um we like a couple of Critical Minerals names, and I'll I'll wrap it up. Um, we like PGE ZF in the States, which is Stillwater. They're in Montana. Um, really, really cheap stock here at 29 cents. They just hit 50 cents a few weeks ago. I mean, they're down 42% in in a couple of weeks on no bad news. It's crazy. Um, another one we've mentioned on your show before is Power Metallic, uh, PNPNF in the States, PNPN in Canada. They have the best copper hole hits I've seen in 2024 or 2025 from any junior out there. Um, and they have a lot of critical minerals like platinum and other things in their deposit in Canada. And lastly is Sydney. Uh, Sydney Resources is SDRC trading again at 29 cents. I mean, these guys are in Idaho. This isn't the Congo, you know, like this is a real jurisdiction that's being more and more supportive of mining and and writing checks that are non-dilutive to companies like this. >> Okay, perfect. Thank you for sharing your uh um thoughts and disclosing your portfolio for us. It's very educational. We'll uh we'll end it here. John, where can we follow your work? >> Yeah, thanks. It's fennic consulting.com and uh if you go to performance, you can see our track record for 10 years. Um there's a ton of information there for investors. >> Yeah, absolutely. We're not giving financial advice, but we're giving investors an opportunity to learn from professional investors like John what they are doing. So do your own due diligence and make sure to follow the channel for more updates daily. Thank you, John, for your time today. We'll speak again soon. >> Thanks a lot, David. >> Thanks for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.