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Join Kalshi Today: http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES Danny and Dan Nathan hit bank earnings and why mega money-center banks look …
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Welcome to the On the Tape podcast. I’m your host, Danny Moses, and today, Tuesday, January 13th, I filled in for Gaia and joined Dan Nathan for Market Call, which you can catch on the risk reversal YouTube channel, and also included it here as well. So, please enjoy the banter. We talked about the kickoff to bank earnings and the NFL playoffs, as well as a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. We also hit the yen, silver, and gold and the rotation going on in the markets as the energy sector is finally getting its due as oil makes a move higher. We talked about that stuff and a whole lot more. But before we get to that, I wanted to try and break down a few things out in the markets making noise. Starting with the most important, the Federal Reserve and Jerome Pal’s a video response to receiving a subpoena from the DOJ after being accused of lying to Congress about the cost of renovations at the Federal Reserve buildings. Equity futures traded down sharply Sunday night, recovered a bit, and then closed higher on the day Monday, and bond yields after initially moving higher settled in as well. The hope here is that this is just more noise, and this isn’t something that gets resolved prior to Pal’s term ending in May. What this really is, like the other charges against other Fed board member, Lisa Cook, is more of a pressure campaign to reshape the Federal Reserve board and make Pal step down from the board of governors after his term as Fed chair ends. And I would note that his board seat does not expire until January 2028. Just think of this like the Supreme Court where the justices are also appointed by the president. And I think it’s important to provide a quick overview of the Fed and who holds the power and who votes at the FOMC every time we see a Fed rate decision. The FOMC is comprised of 12 members, the seven board members, and then five regional bank presidents out of the 12 total, with the head of the New York Fed always holding one of those five. and by a majority they set and make interest rate decisions. The seven members of the board, including Pal and the six others, have their terms expire anywhere from January 31st, 2026 in the case of Steven Moran, who was recently appointed to Lisa Cook, whose term does not expire until 2038. I would note that these six governors were appointed, three by Biden and three by Trump. and the board has the power to hire or fire regional bank presidents. So, it isn’t hard to imagine what a few changes could do to the makeup of the FOMC and Fed policy. So, even with Pal’s Fed chair term running out this May, his term being a board member doesn’t end until January 2028. So, expect the noise and pressure to continue. I would highlight two KOI contracts I’ve been watching and trading that seem like decent trades on the yes side. Will Trump try to fire pal try to fire pal as a Fed chair or governor at any point in 2026? I would say yes and it’s sitting at 58%. You can read the rules, but just trying is not doing. So I think it’s going to be yes. And the second one is will the FOMC have an emergency meeting at any point in 2026 out of the scheduled meetings at 18%? I say yes as well as an emergency meeting might not just be about rates. And remember, if you go to Koshy and sign up, you can use this link and promo code to get started. Most of the other news in the markets has been geared towards housing affordability and helping the consumer. Both are admirable and where practical should always be looked at, but in practice could have unintended consequences. As it relates to housing, we have seen a repeal of certain tariffs related to housing supplies and building products. And Trump has directed the GSC’s Fanny May and Freddy Mack to begin purchasing $200 billion worth of mortgage back securities, believing that it will result in lower mortgage rates and tighter spreads. Remember, up until late last year, the Federal Reserve was running off billions of these mortgage back securities every month via quantitative tightening and still holds roughly $2 trillion worth of these securities. So now we have QE quote not QE with the Fed purchasing T bills and this proposed mortgage back security purchase coming this time around from Fanny and Freddy all with the goal of reducing interest and mortgage rates that might work but home prices could actually rise as a result and offset that benefit. We also had the proposed institutional home buying ban to keep private equity away from home ownership with the hopes that less competition would lower prices for real buyers. That might be the case and you would have additional supply hitting the market and that would indeed lower home prices. But the builders themselves have been benefiting from this investor demand and might face increased supply issues and reduce their activity as an offset. Then we had Trump’s proposed 10% price cap on interest that credit card companies can charge consumers. Again, there are many things that sound great. It might get voters turned on. That is very unlikely for two reasons. One, it would require an act of Congress maybe, but it would result in millions of people with no access to credit as the banks and credit card companies could not justify underwriting these card holders without the ability to charge higher rates for the riskiest borrowers. Ironic that the administration wants to control credit card rates, but approved the largest credit card merger in history with Cap 1 and Discover that now control roughly 20% of the market and also dismantled the CFPB whose job it was was to ensure that the corporate America wasn’t gouging the consumer. We will continue to see policies announced that are intended to help the US consumer, which is admirable. But the actual implementation and/or byproducts of these policies may end up backfiring. The most important one being the Fed losing its independence and the lack of credibility and confidence in our financial system which could ensue. So, please enjoy this edition of Market Call and Dan and I go over our NFL picks at the end of the show. >> All right, welcome to a very special edition of Market Call. Not because Guyami is not here. It’s because Danny Moses is here. Danny Moses of the On the Tape podcast of the Danny Moses show that’s going to be on Scripts TV very soon. Danny’s going to give us the 411 on that and a Substack. We’re going to show you where you can subscribe to that. Danny, welcome to the market call. >> Dan, great to be here. It’s been a long time you and I one- on-one doing something. So, should be fun. >> It really is. You know, back in the early days of the On the Tape podcast, you remember um maybe it was after a year or so, we had like a murderers row of guests for like week after week after week, but then we decided we were going to interview each other. Do you remember that? It was like getting the backstory or whatever. That was really fun. Um but we’ve uh been able to do this together for five years, over five years. We’re coming in >> and I remember when you weren’t a great NFL football picker and now you can’t lose. So, we can get to that at some point maybe in the show. So, >> all right. By by the way, yeah, you you destroyed me one season. You were you were you were on an absolute bender. Um you know, I will say this that, you know, I got out of the gate really strong. Um there was a couple weeks where you didn’t hear much from me um on the picks. Bill’s just nodding his head over there. But I’ve had a couple weeks this weekend I went 4-0. Um a few weekends ago I went six and I it was insane, you know. Um but again, >> while last, bud, because it >> I know, but you know me. I’m not I’m not doing it big. Um while you were gone or while we’re while you were down in FLA um you know we’ve been uh watching the markets this year. Um you know it’s been it’s been choppy I’d say the least. I mean I think a lot of the themes that we um had last year or at least in the last three months or so carried through uh to the middle of this year. Um you know Mike Wilson on the Risveral podcast it dropped on Friday of Morgan Stanley obviously you know he said something interesting. is like I don’t really care about the calendar, you know what I mean? Like do you like unless you’re a portfolio manager and you have benchmarks and you know what I mean? Like you have quarterly reporting like does the calendar matter to you Danny? >> I think there are behavioral parts that you know to Mike’s point that might last short term but over long term and he’s a longterm guy fundamentals will matter but certainly towards the end of the year you can get a chase the beginning of the year you know the setup rolling. We’ve seen that a few times that we’ve talked about over the last few years on the podcast that certain things that underperformed might outperform and look at names like energy and materials and things that were left for dead in 20125. You come in with a clean slate and I always go back to Boston, right, to the portfolio managers and get in their heads and how they think about overweight, overweing certain sectors, underweing. you can afford to take a risk early in the year in my opinion as a portfolio manager to overweight a particular sector and then still have time to make it back over the course of the year. So I don’t know I I tend to think there is a behavioral finance aspect to the start of each year for sure. >> Yeah, that that’s an interesting point. um you know a lot of these let’s call it pod shops in the hedge fund world you know when you and I were very active let’s say in that 20 years ago you know it wasn’t like you you weren’t running a really tight net meaning like your net exposure you know I mean long versus shorts now they’re very tight and that’s a really difficult game’s a lot of risk management on that but to your point when you were just ripping it back in the day and there was like you know pretty good incentives you start out the year and you start taking a lot of risk because to your point you got all year to make it back, which some difficult years, you know, it just gets worse and worse. I think that’s worth saying. >> And to use an NFL analogy, if you’re up for the year the month of December, you’re just trying to run the clock out, right? So, you’re doing everything. Just don’t commit a penalty. >> Don’t mess up. So, anyway, enough. Yeah. >> Well, listen, uh, throw some some questions um into the chat, peeps. We’re going to answer some. It’s really fun to have Danny here, especially on a day like today where we had JP Morgan’s earnings and then we obviously have, you know, a slew of the money centers and then the investment banks. Um the rest of this week we’ll talk a little tech. Um I know Danny um you’re not allergic to it, but you’re focused on other areas of the markets. Maybe we’ll talk a little energy. We’ll talk um home builders. We definitely got to hit the credit cards and we’ll do that in connection with the banks. Um where do you want to go here, Danny? like do you want let’s just start with the earnings this morning because you and I talk about this a lot or you’ll hear a lot of pundits talk about this is that often obviously banks come every quarter right out of the gate and oftentimes they will set the tone for earning season especially like when you have a run into earnings season the way we have in this group in particular. So what what did you hear this morning and and what do you think might be a theme that kind of carries through the rest of the week? >> Well, the banks themselves are expensive when you talk about the bigger banks of JP Morgan. So it would take a lot the stocks to keep moving higher, right? Kind of avoid avoid the bigger issues. So big bucks, no whammies kind of here. So I think it’s a healthy pullback to a degree. You do have the regulatory what were tailwinds for the most part still in the banking sector with an occasional headwind like this nonsense 10% cap, which we could talk about on rates for credit cards and so forth. So it’s kind of a mixed bag, but so goes the market. So goes these large Wall Street banks. you know, the IPO calendar, M&A, all those things are kind of connected. And Mike Mayo, I know, has been very vocal recently, very smart guy. He’s covered the banks longer than I have. And, you know, he’s shifted here to kind of earnings uh from kind of book values historically. So, normally in this part of the cycle, yes, you use earnings and ROIs are decent, but remember, when things start to turn down, book value is kind of the lower and we are at a very high book value level for a lot of these banks. So, I guess Dan, a long-winded way of saying they’re somewhat priced to perfection, but they’re probably priced correctly. You just got to trade these things around the margin. So, again, I I think they’re do nothings here, but they’re great indicators for the overall health of the market in my opinion. >> Yeah. I mean, when they guide up or or when they report net interest margins, let’s say up 4% or something like that. I mean, that’s great, but what does it mean when you have a stock that’s performed like this trading all-time high after a huge rip, you know, off the lows in April, trading at nearly three times tangible book? you know it it’s you these aren’t sectors that can kind of do this sort of outperformance or guide up in a manner you know what I mean and you know there was one thing that you saw that investment banking fees were down year-over-year and let’s just pull up Goldman for a second because I I I think a lot of this move Danny you know in the last 25% nearly in the last month or so is predicated on the fact that we’ve heard all this anthropic going to go public space you know open AI these are going to be you know massive windfalls we know that golden and Morgan will be lead left. You know, one of them on one, one of them on the other, you know, that sort of thing. And, you know, I say to myself, okay, is JP Morgan’s fees at the expense of of gold? And maybe we’re going to know in a day or so. You know what I mean? Like that sort of thing. But again, talking about price to perfection, talking about from a sentiment standpoint, let’s just say their guidance on fees is not great. You know, they don’t have as much exposure to net interest margin, you know, all that sort of stuff. So, I I just think that’s interesting. If you thought JP Morgan was priced to perfection into their print, I mean, this one, just look at the move it’s had in the last week and a half. >> Yeah, these are market proxies to a degree, but I want to highlight what you mentioned. So, I think the banking fees in the quarter were down year-over-year, but overall, I think if I’m not mistaken, they were decent year-over-year overall. Um, and I think some of that’s a free pass in terms of the government shutdown and all the noise that things get pushed forward to Q1 and Q2. But you bring up a great point again, so goes the market. So you could this could quickly close up. So I think there’s a wealth effect on the consumer and I think there’s a wealth effect on the banks. Everything to your point starts in the investment banking area and then it comes down to oh you’re trading the IPA, oh it’s an M&A, you’re trading the AR, oh you it’s all kind of related there. So it is the horse that leads the cart for sure. But again, I’ll just say it won’t take much to kind of push this into the kind of neutral to negative um outlook, right? In terms of people’s sentiment. So I think that’s pretty much what it’s going to be driven by. No doubt. Um, you know, one thing I would just mention and and this it’ll be interesting to see what the broader impact is on markets in general. You know, you have JP Morgan down nearly 3%. I mean, it’s sort of like a knee-jerk sort of thing. We could see it back up if we have a different vibe in the markets, but I wanted to highlight something and and again, I’m I’m kind of um I want to hear Doug Cass um you know, from the street.com and Cabba’s Capital um what his take on this. I say this all the time as it relates to banks and financials in general. you know, he’s forgotten more about the space than I’ll ever know. But on the market front, you know, I think it’s interesting if you want to pull up a tweet he had this morning, um that uh you know that we we were up 18 handles pre-market, which seems like the way the market is disposed most days, you know what I mean? and 18 handles, you know, on an S&P that’s trading near 7,000. While that’s not a lot from a trading perspective, if you catch that move, right, which it looks like, you know, Doug did right here, it’s actually a good market if you want to trade little chops, you know what I mean? And so, let’s pull up the S&P futures here for a second because I want to look at some levels. Um, and you know, one of the reasons with the futures and I like on a short-term basis is that you can set stops, right? You can take little chops at things, if you will. Let’s tighten this up a little bit if you want to look at a six-month or so because, you know, we’ve seen this series of sort of higher lows. We did see that one test in late November that looked like, okay, maybe we had kind of had them here if you were bearish, but you’ve seen this sort of, you know, really low V. We have a VIX that’s what around 15 or so. Danny, what are what are some levels here? Because this is not a definitive breakout by any means, right? Um, and I’m just curious how you’re thinking about the broader market here. I think the equal weight’s probably a better way to look at it. But I will tell you that again with such tech heavy part of this chart, I mean the cues, it’s hard to really even tell those two apart to a degree. And I kind of gave up trying to necessarily call the S&P 500 as much as you know various sectors where you want to overweight or underweight. But listen, a CPI number that’s 0.1% better than people would have thought it’s going to drive the market up a little bit, then it settles back in. I think there’s bigger issues right now maybe to Doug’s point that you you know certain things that are deemed to be dovish and or a little bit better aren’t that aren’t that meaningful over the overall valuation of the market and again almost like the banks the market is pretty much priced to perfection right so it doesn’t take a lot to have the VIX shoot up to 20 to 25 which we’ve seen stay up there maybe for two or three days but Pavlovian we’ve seen over the last couple years those get bought to a degree you know um with the exception of kind of the massive draw down um last April that we saw right for just a major tariff event. But so you just got to kind of trade around. You’re right. I think if you make if you use these markets to kind of make trading decisions on on names that are out there, just be cognizant that it’s not always going to be fundamentals that are going to drive those. But it will give you opportunities to buy on weakness when the overall market is weak and to sell into strength when the over market strength. So I would say from a bottomup perspective on the names that you’re trading and just be honest with yourself. Is it caught up in market and the indices and the passive flows and getting the benefit out of that? Does it deserve to be where it is? And the flip side of that is when the market gets crushed, know what you own and buy the quality on the way down. That’s kind of how I use it. Dan. >> Yeah. I want to hit a couple of those what I think are quality names that have gotten hit off some headlines. But really quickly, I just want to hit the the what something that you just said about the S&P uh market cap weight versus the equal weight. And that’s actually been my view. Um you know, we were talking about it on this podcast. I remember um you know talking about it on CNBC a few weeks ago when people are you know I was asked like what are some of the themes that you think um for 2026 and it was partly this you know this was not confirming the new highs in the S&P 500 for most of the fall right and here we are we have this and a lot of it has to do with that concentration that you’re talking about where right now on the year and again this is two weeks you know this is outperforming the market cap weight nearly you know 2 to1 um so I think it’s worth noting I want to pull up the daily spark from Apollo from torstston because I think this is interesting um you know he’s highlighting the concentration not just in the stock in the performance but also earnings and then when you think about capex too which is broader right to the you know to GDP and the contribution there um thoughts on this because it’s basically what you’re saying but it’s not just from a price performance standpoint there’s also big economic implications. >> Yeah. So, if I’m looking at that correctly, I mean, the earnings are growing obviously in those companies, but there’s a lot of momentum. I guess when I look at that thing, I’m like, that’s momentum in that trade to a degree. And use Tulsson’s accent, that looks very risky to me. Kazo, um, it looks very risky obviously here. So, that just tells me that again, it’s too concentrated, too much reliance on these names, right? But again, these are names for the most part with decent balance sheets with the exception, you know, of a couple where the macro is still very strong. They’re very uh big, so you know, safety numbers, they’re very liquid and so forth. And so it’s a lower risk way to express these themes. But Dan, again, it won’t take a lot for those to potentially turn. And I had Carter Worth on on the tape last week with Vinnie Porter for an episode of Bourbon and Charts where by 30 minutes in, we were all hammered. Except Carter brought up a great point, which was back to that RSP equal weight index, which is that that the other sectors act like a sponge to absorb what might happen here. and we called them spongeworthy categories, right? Whether it was materials or energy or what it might be. And you look at the move in oil, if I could just shift for a minute, it doesn’t take a lot for WTI oil, uh, you know, to kind of move up and what will happen to the sector that historically has been 7% of the S&P, right, which has been under 3% when you look at energy stocks. And so, again, you know, that the Torstson slide kind of aside for a minute, I just think there’s so many great opportunities. It has been a stock pickers market here for a while. Even though we’re so focused and obsessed with passive flows, there is a lot out there and it is a sleepy market. You can really do a lot of stuff here, Dan. Sorry to go out on a on a leave that chart completely, but if look at the chart of the XLE and forget about the Venezuelan noise and Exxon Mobile not being allowed. Forget all that. Like these things have potentially have really big legs from here. Big. So again, that stuff that kind of stuff excites me. Um, so >> well, we’ll hit energy in a sec, but I wanted to just kind of stay in the macro for one second. This is also something that Doug Cass, you know, forwarded or put in one of his notes on the Street Pro. Um, and it’s coming from our main man, Rosie. Um, and you know, one of the things that kind of stuck out to me, I think the guys have the tweet here. Um, you know, and by the way, I I it’s one of my first reads every morning. I mean, Doug sends a lot of great stuff out, but I also read >> Even Doug some love. Doug. >> Well, no, no, no. Because you know what? You know what the thing for me? >> Yeah, >> I’m not I haven’t been on Twitter in a long time. And one of the things, you know, I literally have been off I think for two years. And one of the main uses I had was using it as like an RSS feed, right? So I’d follow all the news organizations and then I would follow like lots of people like Doug and David and you and a whole host of other people. And it felt like a great place, right, to kind of get a very curated sort of feed. But then you get sucked in by all these stupid like >> Yeah, you need some more balance following me and Rosie. He can be very detrimental. >> No, but you know what I’m saying. I mean, like, you know, I had a couple hundred follows, which was a great thing if you get wake up in the morning and you’re like, but I don’t get them anymore. So, Doug sends out a lot of great stuff. I do I’m really heavy in the emails and you know what I mean? Like that’s one of the things with Torson every morning that comes out, that one chart. He also has a chart book that he updated and we’re going to put that in the show notes and maybe Amanda will throw it in the YouTube chat here. Um, but let’s pull up the the uh post from Rosie for a second. and he was talking about this in in Mornings with Dave, but um you know Lindseay was on, he’s a former Fed governor, you know, he’s waxing about soaring GDP growth. I think this is really important. Never once mentions that three quarters of that 4.3% thirdarter print came from a huge savings rate draw down and a contraction in import volumes, strip those contributions out, and the economy expanded at the grand annuals annualized pace of 1%. Okay, so Larry Lindsay, he’s all he’s all in on this administration. Um I think he had a role in the first administration and these guys are picking their own facts. There’s a like an intellectual dishonesty that just doesn’t make sense. You could say, well, that happens in every administration. This is the one though that I I just you know it the the administration, the treasury that you know they will repeat these sorts of things or maybe it comes from them and I just find it you know one of those things if you’re buying stocks you’re buying the market right here because you think that GDP is inflecting higher and we are going to have the sorts of gains that we’ve never seen before and it’s going to cause we have a great stock market. What is it discounting? And I’m not saying sell the market here or this or whatever. I go back to your point. There are many opportunities. You want to buy something in one sector or this and that or whatever. But again, you don’t have to buy the market cap weighted because to me that’s the biggest risk. If you do have a draw down, if we go down 10 15%, which the stock market does on average almost every year, some of your favorite stocks that concentrate these two major indices are going to be down 30 40%. That happened in the spring. So don’t think that can’t happen again, Dan. >> Well, don’t let facts get in the way of a good story. But I would say this, all this stuff is kind of ignored, you know, better than expected, worse than expected, however you want to, you know, talk about it and keep think, you know, include certain numbers, take certain numbers out. But the bottom line is that earnings have been growing, right? And the point you make is that in a down market, in an up market, no one asks questions. In a down market, those things start to matter like like the facts. But I would flip it a little bit. I would argue almost the other way. Okay, so the economy is not really growing. Okay, Fed should be cutting rates then potentially. Okay, how are we going to use that to help? So I see both sides of but for sure a lot of those numbers are convoluted and you know they change on import and export and all the stuff and gold especially had a huge impact there. So I think earnings is the big driver and until those start to drop those things won’t matter. >> All right, but the slide before shows the big earnings contribution is the concentration that we’re talking about. if you have any sort of slowdown um you know that’s one of the big issues um what do you mean by gold and silver are big participants in that >> well if you go back to that chart the exporting of gold the US was exporting lots of gold it it it skws kind of the >> exporting it not for like the sort of economic reasons you might be a big exporter of you know industrial you know this or that or whatever or or soybeans or this they’re we’re exporting them because these countries want it back. You know what I mean? Like >> um let let’s talk about it. I I got to get back to some of these um these credit card names. But while we’re on gold really quickly, um and silver for that matter, um you’ve been a huge gold bug. Guys been a huge gold bug. You guys have also been talking about silver for a while. It’s one of those things that, you know, I don’t think you expected the sort of breakout that we’ve had, but you expected a sort of catch up to gold. Or maybe you did ex you know um you know uh >> well silver has an industrial demand aspect to it that gold really gold’s jewelry obviously and then you know central banks are buying it um because fiat currency hedge but silver kind of got into this perfect storm of data center buildout um obviously EV and solar and it’s really used as you know in in the industrial space and so what I think happened was last summer um during kind of all these data center announcement. If I’m if I’m procuring stuff and it’s everything from caterpillar tractors to concrete, oh, and we need silver. We need 22 million ounces of silver for data center. I think when they went into the markets and there’s actually physical demand for it, right? I think it kind of bet on itself. So, you had a perfect storm, I think, for silver here, right? And you can go over silver gold ratios from here and there. You can do a lot of these other ratios over time. But what’s really interesting, Dan, is I don’t know how real I mean, there’s obviously a squeeze going on in the silver market, but I don’t think there’s as many speculators in silver as people will lead you to believe. I think these are real physical demand for silver. And that’s why none of these things are working. These margin requirements going up almost on a daily basis, right? More last night about trying to create margin on notional value, not just risk, not not just value risk. So, I don’t know, Dan. It feels like silver’s going to continue to move higher here. >> Um, and I think you’re going to see potentially funds get carried out. We don’t know who they are yet. Yeah, >> speculator funds have been short. So, let’s keep in mind, we saw the nickel trade years ago resolve uh not in a great way in my opinion on the LME over in London. You know, one large buyer obviously over in China. And who was the counterparty? Some of the big banks. So, silver’s there separate. Gold I could think continues to move higher. I think we’re going to go I think we’re going to double again here again over the next few years. And I think every pullback is a buying opportunity for all the reasons that are kind of out there from inflation or or cutting in the face of inflation or geopolitical risk, what have you. I think gold’s here to stay. So, and gold’s still in my mind not a large part of people’s portfolios. >> That that was like a Tom Lee Bitcoin prediction you just did there. So, >> I know. I felt I kind of felt Yeah, >> we’re going to time stamp that. Go back to silver for one second. If you give me a 10-year chart, a log chart, please, I’d appreciate that. Um, you know, that blip in April is just fascinating. I mean, like, look where look where silver was, right? It got below what what did it get down to there? Um, so, you know, you see it. It’s it was >> 30 bucks and we’ve turned up. >> It was just a blip. Look at that. I I listen, this has become a meme stock. I mean, or a meme, whatever you want to call it. I just think you got to be really careful here. And I’m looking at that 200 day moving average like 45 bucks or so. Dude, this this could be back there so quickly. I what if if you if it really wasn’t the sort of industrial demand that a lot of silver bull bulls are speaking to. It’s not like we just had you know the sort of silver demand from industrial purposes. Okay. Um that would cause you know 150% rip or 200% rip. I mean in my opinion you know what I mean? Like what do I know? You know, >> Dan, I got to push back for a minute on that because >> I don’t think that enough work had been done on that. I think the real silver bulls, and I wasn’t one of them, uh, to a degree, you really came around on this thing kind of last summer, is that it’s actually just numbers. I mean, silver doesn’t really get mined. It’s kind of a byproduct of copper. But but when all these things were were done and planned, whether it’s EV conversions and the Samsung battery that Tesla’s going to use to convert their fleet to a 600 mile battery which could be charged in 9 minutes, which would be amazing for the EV space, right? Yeah. >> The thing you need silver for it. All these solar all these solar panels, you need silver for it. So it did fall in and look at the look at the you know chart of copper as well, but silver is really a byproduct of of mining other metals. I’m not saying it can’t pull back, but I’m saying there is a part of an industrial application of this that has that was underappreciated for a while. And so, you know, I I think listen, I’d buy the pullback, honestly, if I were. Now, listen, data centers start to get cancelled. Hold on. Data centers start to get cancelceled. If that were to happen or the economy were to really slow, all these things have an economically sensitive part to them, right? And then I think that’s where you can see a pullback. But, >> you know, people thought these things I just >> Yeah. If you’re buying silver here and you’re not short, okay, like you’re you’re not covering, you know, you should be neutered. >> Well, I’m just saying, you know, bring up a chart like I so be able to procreate and have somebody come into the market at some point like neuter neutered. >> I’d rather own the minors. I’d rather own name. >> All right, so wait, hold on. We have a little question here, Danny. Okay, so and we’re gonna hit a bunch of these questions, people. I promise. This is from Andrew Wartz7975. I’m not going to even make the the guy joke that you’re the 700 or 7,975th Andrew Wartz. I just guess I just did it. How you thinking about miners here, Danny? I mean, I love them. You know, I think they’re still lagging gold to a degree. um specifically one which is actually part silver and part gold which I think is the ultimate which is CDE. Uh I’d bring that one up um here. They’re very volatile. Got to know what you own. But listen, price of energy having gone down like it has until recently is also a huge positive for the miners. That’s their big cost input, right? When when they’re mining stuff. So I’m an owner here. Again, back to being in Boston. Put my portfolio manager hat on. this sector is so small as a percentage of the S&P and Pneumont is the only NEM is the only S&P 500 name in gold mining right I I just think these things are still underallocated especially where gold is sits now as we approach 5,000 whether that’s going to be the big blowoff top you know near-term or not again not to sound like Tom Lee but you know Dan I’ve been on this gold trade as long as you’ve known me we were at we were at $1,700 talking about it okay you and I years ago so I just think again we’re in the early innings. Ton of volatility. You’re going to be right. I buy every dip in the miners um and in the in the gold physical. So, >> all right, quick Tom Lee story. Um >> yes, >> last week um I was at an Italian joint downtown um and I was seated in the front. In the back there’s this separate room. And you know, I’m with two guys. One is a tech founder and here in New York. And the other was um his twin brother actually who runs a uh construction business does a lot of like you know what whatever you call it gradeA uh buildouts in New York City you know a lot of office stuff or whatever and and and another friend of ours and out comes Tom Lee and and listen Tom’s a friend it goes back a long time you know what I mean and and I’m as somebody who talks about markets every day on our podcast and on Fast Money and you know you’ve been in the game a long time and you’ve been doing a podcast for 5 years and you speak at events and you know what I mean it’s hard okay it’s hard you open yourself up every day right to being wrong or right and people just kind of cherrypicking whatever and I think with Tom who’s been very right you know and doesn’t I I don’t think he gets particularly bearish every time so he’s got this kind of rockstar sort of mentality but the point is Tom’s walking out he and I see each other I stand up we you know have you know quick pleasantries that sort of thing he has he starts introducing me to these five guys we’re following him one name brand hedge fund, another name brand hedge fund, another name brand, you know what I mean? These are all PMs there. And and and what I thought was really funny is they were all following him out, right? It was a long like thing or whatever. And the one of the guys I was with, and again, neither one of these guys were in the markets, but they like follow the markets closely. He goes, “Tom, Tom, where’s Bitcoin going?” And I can’t remember the number, but the number was high. It was like 300,000 in a year or something. I don’t even >> much higher. He thinks it’s much higher than that. But yeah. >> Yeah. But I mean like you know this is sort of indicative of the environment we’re in. And he’s talking about a risk asset that can’t get out of its own way. >> Well, if you’re again on Wall Street, if you’re long and wrong, you’re okay. If you’re short and wrong, you lose your job. So it pays to be to do that obviously. And listen, give Tom credit. Although he still owes St. Jude $1,000 from a couple years ago, I bet. Sorry you bring him up. By the way, by the way, Nanny, I’m sure he’s a very charitable man. >> I know he is. I just wanted to remind him. >> Okay. So, um I’m sure he’s watching. Going back to um and this is part Okay, we have a question here and I I just want to hit that and maybe I can wrap it into um you know something else that we’re talking about here. So, um where is it? Okay, so this is from Connie Vogle. Connie, thank you for being here. um where are we exactly in the economic cycle and one of the things I would just want to talk about this contribution of the consumer okay which is a big part of the economic cycle Jamie Diamond this morning says the you know the consumer remains resilient they get a lot of data as it relates to credit and usage and you know all that sort of stuff which comes to Danny a little bit of how you’re thinking about let’s just kind of wrap this together with the proposition by the white house that we put a that they put a 10% cap on credit card rates. Okay, this is a space you know very well. Yesterday, American Express got hit pretty hard. COF um got hit really hard. They have very different credit portfolios and and you know dynamics um and the like. But today we’re seeing Mastercard and Visa both down nearly 5%. And obviously that’s about transactions. So let’s do this as a two-part. Okay. one, let’s talk about these stocks in particular and their reaction to this proposition. And the truth is it, you know, it it’s they can’t just it’s not executive order. They just can’t do that, right? But let’s talk about the stocks and then what you think it means for the economic cycle. >> Let me answer her question first in terms of where are we in the economic cycle and then I’ll go backwards if that’s okay. So >> of course, >> so I think so and it all kind of ties in. I think the soft landing has had already occurred kind of in, you know, two early 2025. You know, policies here and there, tariff that kind of jilted it in a in a way and maybe cause near-term inflation. So, I think that’s already occurred. The question is where do we go from here? It’s midterm election year. We’ve already seen the White House try to do everything they can to help the US consumer, whether that’s in housing, whether that’s in credit card rates or whatever it might be, right? So, that’s kind of the backdrop here. So, where are we? We’re kind of in a no hire, no fire type type economy. Um, but here’s the risk to this economic cycle is doing things shortsighted by pressuring the Fed to lower rates by firing s certain board governors on the Fed that could turn in the in the face of potentially inflation that has yet to really moderate that could spur that on. So, you’re taking near-term risk to kind of grow the economy andor the markets at the expense potentially of longer term detriment to the economy. So, that’s kind of that as it relates to this ridiculous 10% cap. And by the way, the only time you hear anybody arguing or bipartisan something coming out is when it hurts potentially rich people. You say to yourself, “Well, that’s counterintuitive. Why would a 10% cap hurt rich people?” Because they benefit from the subsidizing obviously of all the people that are paying 15 to 20% which allows them to finance other things cheaply. So credit card companies cannot exist or they will not provide credit to literally 70 to 80% 70 to 80% of the consumers if that was the cap because one you couldn’t sell those credit card loans in the in the ABS market right it wouldn’t function so it’s not practical right so but and then all the housing initiatives which they want to do everyone wants to make housing more more you know affordable but you can’t get that done just with a snap of their fingers or a certain policy so I don’t know if I answered your question but yeah >> AMX so let me get back to so MX doesn’t really carry a lot of balances or charge a lot of interest anyway. Cap one would be the one that obviously that combined with Discover. If you were so concerned about the about credit card companies, why did you approve a company that now controls north of 20% of the credit card market, but that’s but it’s it’s not practical. It won’t happen. >> Was that approval last year under the Trump or was it >> Yeah. Well, the final approval came kind of in the spring of last year, but it was effectively approved by the all, you know, all the Fed and stuff like that. They had to approve it prior. But yeah, it was basically blessed in May. But I guess my point is that like you can’t you’re not just going to fix this. It’s not going to happen. And um so all these things that they’re doing, listen, let’s get the price of oil down. Great. Helps us consumer. Let’s get mortgage rates down. Great. Helps the US consumer. Let’s stop private equity from buying homes. Great. Maybe that makes housing more affordable. I could argue against that in terms of it’s helped the builders over time by sucking up supply on the market. So again, a lot in there obviously, but um again, I think we’ll still we’ll continue to see kind of pro economy, pro-consumer policies, whether they’re practical or not, get thrown at this economy. >> Yeah. I mean, listen, and and I think for you and I to sit here and be very specific about what it means for these stocks and what it might mean for the economy, it’s it’s not, you know, something where we’re not sympathetic to folks that rely on credit and they’re willing to pay those high rates. You know what I mean? like um it’s one thing if people are buying flat screen TVs or as Trump says $37 for their kids and too many pencils and stuff like that um on credit, you know, no one needs $37 uh for their kids and you know, paying I’m I’m being I’m joking here. >> Yeah. >> But, you know, here here’s a headline from Bloomberg and I think this is kind of important. JP Morgan says everything on the table to fight 10% credit card cap. If if it were to happen, it would be very bad for consumers, very bad for the economy. that’s the CFO of JP Morgan. Um, okay. So, you know, we’re going to see a bunch of pullback or push back. Um, on the economic cycle though, I I just want to pull this up because we obviously had CPI this morning, which, you know, was not um, you know, it it’s it was, you know, up less than expected, but it’s still at 2.7% annualized. And actually, Doug and I were talking about this, you know, so few people are talking about the cumulative rate. I went to chatbt and and you know, this is what comes up over the last five years. You know, look at these percentage increases. It’s one thing to say 2.7%. But overall, it’s up 28%. Food at home is up 18%. Gasoline is up considerably. Rent on primary re residents up two 22%. You see it, it goes, you know, on and on and on. Medicare services up 18%. Electricity up 19%. Um, you know, these are really big cumulative increases and they’re affecting not just folks who are lower earners, you know, you and I have lots of friends who, you know, I I mean, who are saying that things are expensive, you know what I mean? Like, you know, and I saw a Whole Foods commercial last night during that um that Pittsburgh game that I know I know that you just thought was, you know, Texans minus three. And we’re going to get to that. somebody who wants your NFL picks. We’re going to get to that. Was just oh my god, it was like a layup. But during that during the game, I saw a Whole Foods uh commercial where every frame had the words low prices. Low prices. Now, Whole Foods is not thought of as it’s not like Trader Joe’s, you know what I mean? Or stuff like that. I just think that that is permeating the psychology of consumers, both high and low earners. Do you agree with that? >> Yeah. I don’t care what CPI says, GDP says, people the higher cost of living for sure and the economy is not as strong, you know, and and we and we kind of know that and it’s a K-shaped economy and so the lower end obviously, you know, continues to get pinched and the problem with the CPI numbers and so forth is it sets policy, forget the Fed for a minute, but for like social security checks to go out and the rate that those are dependent upon. So to your point, if it’s not including andor it’s underestimating certain things or whatever it might be. So just it’s it’s how people are feeling and and numbers are never going to describe that in in in that way. So I think we’re going to continue to have this battle, Dan, of push and pull in the economy and I think we’re just going to continuously stretch the K-shaped economy um outside of the letter, right? Yeah, so to speak. >> Um let me just see if there’s another one that lines up with Okay, there was a question JS9870. Um, do you boys uh have any thoughts on USB off this uh silly I mean I I don’t know if you have any thoughts on USB but you know you just gave us the 411. Um what what about um Mastercard and Visa Danny and so obviously they don’t take credit risk but it is a transactionbased business. So the idea would be and these are expensive stocks as everyone knows especially relative to let’s say the money centers city bank JP that actually have considerably large um credit card portfolios. H how are you thinking about those? I mean down nearly 5%. Those are those are big moves. >> Yeah. Um more related like you said to consumer spending. Although let’s not forget um probably someone said hey go um Durban bill remember that one? Let’s go after Vis and Mastercard for debit fees. And so part of the argument could be here let’s go squeeze Vis and Mastercard as a way and then you’ll be able to charge lower rates because if you don’t have to pay the house too much money and the toll keepers you can. So I imagine part of it is a regulatory overhang while not directly is an ancillary play on why these stocks might be down is is my guess and so they they could be targeted here. So, >> okay. Um, energy really quickly. You you talked about it before. Crude oil is um above 61 or 60 for the first time. Yeah. Bit and you see that downtrend um you know that even if you want to go back to the fall so you have a little bit of a breakout that 200 day moving average. I mean to me you know that looks like a level where you could sell it. I think >> I mean let me just say that you’ve given Doug Cass a lot of love today. Let me give Peter Bookbar some love. >> Yeah, by the way. Okay, Peter, >> not only friend of the show >> but great friend personally. Um, and he he actually spy the way. So >> bad, but energy had a great piece yesterday. The structural issue in energy, right? It’s like when oil dropped to 55 a few weeks ago and the stocks held, that’s when you said, “Okay, it’s washed in terms of nobody owns these stocks.” Yeah. If all it would take would oil to just move a little bit and you would see that, you know, people coming into the names and so listen, I’m not going to try to predict where oil is going to go. But these energy companies have gone through an M&A cycle cleaning up their balance sheets, right? These are like something they’ve never experienced before. So in this cycle, no one’s going to tell them to drill baby drill. No one’s going to, you know, the rig count keeps going down. Everything is setting up for them, you know, in my opinion, in a way to own these stocks in general. So if you do get oil somehow going to $70, these stocks are going to be up 30 to 40% in minimum in my opinion just because again no one owns it. So >> So you think buying the XLE is the best way to do it? I mean you know guy is in Exxon Mobile and Chevron and so listen I I love Exxon. I mean that’s a name I’ve been you know owning here for a while. XOM and uh so you can own any of them but Rig RI Tidewater is one of the cheaper names out there. We just did a write up in our Substack of TDW. That’s a great one. And Dan, I want to talk before about strategists on the street and so forth and looking for information. These Discord channels within like the Substack, and you’re on our Substack, so you see it are unbelievable. And I’m not saying you have to go to our Substack and sign up. What I’m saying is >> I’m saying that I’m saying >> no, you can say that. But the ideas that you can get and the thoughtfulness in terms of the work behind it, it’s an incredible community. And let me just say this, we just had a uh late late December um you know part of after 2000 after the dotcom bubble in 2003 you had like a lot of a lot of rules enacted for Wall Street on the separation of um research and banking that thing just got completely repealed by the way. So if you thought research on Wall Street was >> wait so Henry Blahett hey Henry you’re back if so so my my point is if you thought that research before was somewhat compromised to get banking fees look no further than the repeal of this thing. So again I it is such a bespoke stockpicking environment and a bespoke research environment. If you’re willing to do the work and dig in you can find a lot of really interesting ideas outside of the mag seven. So >> by the way I’m I’m a huge Henry Blahett fan. Um he and I go back I’m sure you was he worked with Henry Bladget >> you know he’s these guys I mean listen he got tagged you know he was by 30 years old back then does that make sense probably you know what I mean and you know >> I was with him he was on a pay phone in Tallahassee I was taking him to Florida State you know retirement system yeah >> and he was on the phone when he made one of these calls on Amazon from a pay phone >> dude and the stocks doubled over the next like but my only point is he got tagged for a couple glib emails about the stocks that he covered And you know it was tied to like like you know he had to be bullish because the Maril Lynch wanted to do banking with him you know I mean it just um is what it is. Um I want to hit uh what’s your heart out as we say in the business Danny. >> Okay I want to hit this Japan thing too that someone >> I know I know but what’s your heart out because I want to hit a bunch >> noon. >> Okay. All right let’s go baby. Um so we’ll get to Japan um in a second because there’s a good question there. Um so you’re buy you buy the XLE to play the energy thing. um you’re buying a dip in maybe some of these credit card names. Um and then all right, so let’s let’s do this because make me smarter on this. You and guy have been talking about the weakness in the yen, okay? And it’s a unwind of the carry trade. The last time we saw these sorts of levels, okay, was July August of 24. The market saw the the stock market saw major palpitations. Why? people were buying yen, right, cheap, using it to invest in, right, uh, higher yielding, you know, assets. One of those was the MAG7, right? Like just think about that because that was like a theme you could get on. So now when you think about, you know, yields where they are and the unwind of this sort of thing. I mean, how important is this? Explain this to us. Okay, talk to me like I’m an idiot because I kind of am about currencies. Okay, so the yen’s been getting weaker here obviously and it’s they already have inflation and people had thought that the Bank of Japan was going to be hawkish and obviously start to raise rates, right? We saw some of that. They’ve done that. They have a meeting, you know, in a few weeks here where now it turns out it looks like not only they not going to raise rates, the current prime minister in Japan is now calling for a snap election as part of the LLD to take over basically the government. And that would be very kind of progrowth at the risk of inflation type strategy. So now you’re seeing the yen weaken which historically to your point is good for risk assets except for the fact that Japanese rates if you look at the 10-year yields and two-year yields you’re breaking through 30-year levels here are now running hot. So you’re you’re inflating. So the stock market is going up there, right? You can look at this. The stock market’s been running. But now you’re getting into a dangerous territory. Why? Because the debt to GDP ratio you thought is bad here. It’s worth it’s over two and it’s like 2.4 times there. And if they have to come in and start defending their currency, right, for they’re going to be using where are they pulling that from? So you’re now at a point where again central banks and sovereign nations that have tons of debt, what are their choices? Do you become fiscally responsible and slow down this huge export economy that they have? So you’re feeling inflation in Japan. They’re willing to ignore it for now. You run the stock market, you’ll weaken the end. But at some point, Dan, it’s pay the piper. And if the big thing here and why Scott Bessant made noise today was if Japanese rates continuously move higher as an alternative to US treasuries, they are the largest holder Japan of US treasuries. That’s all Bessant cares about. He wants to make sure they won’t be selling US treasuries in order to come in and defend their currency. And that’s the implication that it can have on the market from here. So, >> okay. >> I hope that made Did that make sense or did I too? No, I I I you know, I mean, you’re not that much of a wonk, Danny. Um >> uh here’s a good one. Okay, this is from Eric Clifton. Eric Clifton, uh 611 or 1611. Um how does every single down day get bought? You know, it it is the case. Now, I I will bring it back to what you just described. there’s going to be an upday that turns into a down day and then you’re going to see some sort of action whether it’s the snap election, it doesn’t go the way that the, you know, the prime minister thinks in Japan and you see some big currency move and then you’re going to get things a little sloppy. You know, there’s also a scenario, Danny, where I think there’s a pocket of risk that exists in the private markets that is not appreciated. And I want to go back to late last year when SoftBank that was meant to fund $40 billion in Stargate and other um obligations, you know, here in the US to build out these data centers and the like. Well, what did they do when they didn’t exactly have the cash to do it? Now, they have to go to sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East. Okay? But they had to sell their Nvidia stake and they did. You know what I mean? They used that to fund this. So if OpenAI has and I actually think it’s going to happen. I mean like I I think they’re gonna in 2026 they are not going public. They might not be able to raise they have to raise a hundred billion dollars at higher levels than they did last year. They did it at 200 at 500. They were going to do it at 750. They’re talking about 850. If that doesn’t happen, you know what I mean? they actually have to raise at 600 billion. Then at some point the spot dries up a little bit and then you get fund managers and there are a lot of crossover funds. Boston they own these things in the private market and they don’t have liquidity to the size of the positions they have. Well, what are they going to sell? They’re going to sell the things that they can and that’s in the public markets. And so I think SoftBank proved that. And by the way, Soft Bank’s down like 30% from the highs. I don’t know if they can pull that up, you know, late last year. So, talk to me a little bit about >> I don’t know how to even retort to that. I will say that, you know, >> look at that. That’s Soft Bank. >> I know. I I will say that um that uh these private uh share owners gave Open AAI the ability to sell $6 billion worth of stock at a $500 billion valuation. And if you look at the stockbased comp number, Porter was writing about this the other day. >> I can’t even tell you how high it is. It’s it’s in the tens of billions of dollars at OpenAI. Think about that for a second. Stockbased comp and a private company that’s yet to go public. We talk about that in public companies. It’s massive at OpenAI. So, I don’t know how sustainable they’re going to need to go public, Dan, to your point, to get liquidity at some point, but you know, Nvidia’s everybody’s coming in giving them money, signing deals because they want to partner with them obviously. But again, out of my area of expertise there, Dan, but I totally hear what you’re saying. And listen, Masa’s son three years ago basically said, “I’m out of the markets. I’m done. I’m not going to take risk anymore.” Well, he has gone full boore, risk on everywhere. And so, I think people are going to get nervous obviously that he might be getting a little bit over his skis here. >> Well, and and then just to to kind of answer the question, why does he get bought? Well, the fever hasn’t broken yet in this AI trade, but then you’ve also seen money rotate into, let’s say, financials and energy and some other spaces. Um, you know, you just mentioned Nvidia and I just actually mentioned it too. Look at this information article and this is a great example. So, this dropped this morning or this just dropped. Okay, this is uh China restricts Nvidia chip purchases to special circumstances. So, when you think about this, okay, Nvidia rallied off this. Go pull up a day chart on Nvidia. You know what I mean? Like, yeah, the stock hasn’t acted particularly well over the last few months. It’s trading where it is. Like, how does that happen? The stocks, look at that flip. The stock initially sold off. >> I don’t know. I mean, look at the other news out there. I don’t again I’m >> No, that’s the news. Look at But that article hit at 11:27. >> You see that quick, you know, drop and then look where it is. It’s up like a few bucks from there. So to me, the fever hasn’t broken. That’s why they buy them. They still And this is the behavior in 2021, by the way. Like we saw this. We’re podcasting, you know, uh, you know, every other day. Um, so that is what it is. Um, let me hit a couple things here, Danny. Um, >> NFL, where we going? >> We got a Listen, you said you could stick around. Okay, >> so let’s let’s do this. This is Sbuck 4783. Great show, guys. Thank you, Sbuck. Um, a fan for years now. >> What is your take on a firm? This goes back to kind of some of the credit stuff in general. I know this is an area um that you look at very closely because you find fintech interesting um because it’s just an extension of these other themes. Talk >> I mean there’s two ways to look at it. Got obviously it’s going to get hit on the news for capping interest rates uh 10% for credit card companies. These guys fall somewhere in that world in terms of user rates and so forth. So it would be an alternative obviously for credit to go right because they don’t fall under that under that under that spell. Um listen buy now pay later from macro perspective continues to grow. I do think that it poses itself again as a technology company but the end of the day they have risk sharing arrangements with a lot of private equity companies. If credit starts to underperform the consumer it will back its way up. Maybe it’s not now so they’ll continue to grow. And as people as the K-shaped economy continues to stretch on the lower end, people are going to look for alternative solutions for credit and a firm’s going to benefit from that. They’ve signed great partnerships, etc. I’m nowhere in the name at the moment. It’s not something I would be long here because I do believe at some point if we were to go into a credit cycle, it would get hit here. And again, it’s dependent. Let’s not, it is dependent on the financial markets to keep buying the paper that they’re producing in order to keep growing. That’s it. I don’t care what anybody like that’s and if and if credit starts to underperform the the the price people are willing to pay for those loans goes down and it and it hits the profitability of these companies. That’s it in a nutshell. So I’m nowhere again it’ll have some regulatory noise around all the stuff we’re seeing, but I’m, you know, neutral. >> All right. Um T-Mobile, there’s a question here and I want to hit this. >> That’s yours. >> Oh, I I can answer questions. I’m just throwing it out there and you can respond to what I’m saying. Danny, let’s >> No, I’m saying I make sure that wasn’t towards me. I mean, I’m allowed to answer a question. Okay. So, >> T-Mobile, this was like the big outperformer um in the space. Obviously, in the wireless space, you have Verizon and AT&T. And what’s interesting to >> do so T-Mobile, they have the Land Man, they have uh Billy Bob Thornton doing these commercials. He’s like, “Ah, this used to suck and now it’s great.” And then they have um which Wilson? Uh Luke Wilson. Luke Wilson’s doing the commercials and they’re trying to get all down and hokey. These are two Dallas or Texas guys. And I know that I know Luke Wilson’s from Dallas because my wife, you ready for this? My wife, >> she went to the senior prom with Luke Wilson. >> Interesting. Wow, what a step down. Uh, anyway, go ahead. Sorry. >> Well, first of all, I met He’s got this fake I mean, he really leaned into that Texas accent. Okay. kid went to like a fancy high school in Dallas, Texas. Okay. And I know a lot of folks from Dallas, and they don’t talk like that. Okay. So, you know what? Have a ball. >> He was able to seduce Rachel McAdams and your wife. I mean, that’s incredible. Congratulations. >> I think he dated Gwyneth Paltro in the 90s. >> Wait, we’re talking about Owen or Luke? >> Luke. >> Oh, Luke. Sorry, I went to Owen Wilson. >> Luke’s less of an illustrious career, if you will. Okay, really quickly. So, let’s just pull up the TMU. All right. have that there. Okay, this stock, look where it is. Um, it’s down from 275 down to 190. And you know, all these things, Verizon, they’re trading very poorly. Um, AT&T trading very poorly. This is one where if the market or a group, if the market were to get heavy or start to sell off, you know, if you look at some of these defensive sort of sectors, um, you know, this might be interesting. utilities XLU pull that thing up. And so I just want to make a point about T-Mobile after this is like this stock and they trade cheap. Okay, so let let’s go to and by the way utilities could be an interesting one here been when you talk about demand for data centers and the like and this was you know trading very well. I don’t know I I would look at utilities the XLU but go back to T-Mobile for a second here. You know, this is a company that is expected to have a reaceleration in their earnings and sales in 2026 from 4% 25 to 15% earnings growth and then in uh revenue growth high single digits trades at about 16 and a half times. If that is like if that’s affirmed when they report, I think this stock’s a buy. I’ll just say that. So, I’m looking at T-Mobile and I’m looking at uh utilities and those could be interesting, especially if you are um bearish. Okay, Boeing. I I got I got no opinion really. I saw some huge orders that they have. Um there’s a question on Boeing. Um and that is coming from and I just can give a little shout out because we appreciate you um being here. Maybe Amanda can pull that question up. You know, 300 by the end of the year. I don’t know. That thing’s had an absolute rip. I I don’t buy breakouts like this. Um that’s just my sort of personal um take. And I think we’re kind of done with the questions that we can both answer. Um really quickly before we get to um a question about DraftKings because you were on that thing when it was running, you got bearish on that thing. I know you’re bullish on prediction markets. Um but really quickly on DraftKings, uh the question is, give me a second here. Maybe Amanda can pull that up. That’s from Allar1 SJ. Last time Danny was on, he was bearish on DraftKings. Um, has he changed that view with DraftKings getting into prediction markets? Good question. I think the stocks in no man’s land, they were forced into prediction markets from a defensive standpoint. They needed to join the party because they couldn’t have Kowi and others acquiring 18-year-olds in California and Texas because if it ever became online gambling approval, they would not be able to get those customers back. So that’s why why they’re doing it. It’s a no man’s land here. I I think Iboda numbers in 2026 are going to come down here. I’m not short the name here. I think they’re they could get a bump if you see legislation against the prediction markets or more noise from some of these states that want to ban the prediction companies from operating in their states. These things could get a boost. But this is this is a i gaming piece to it as well which are getting approval in various states. So a lot of crossurrens to me it’s a do nothing. Um, you know, again, Genius Sports was a name I loved at five bucks. Um, sold a lot of it kind of the 1213 level. If that were to drop below 10, I’d be much more interested in owning that than I would DraftKings at this point. So, I I I still think the landscape has changed for sure. The thought that prediction markets weren’t going to have an impact. They did. Um, you’re seeing a proliferation of them now and they’re everywhere. So, I wouldn’t own the stock. I wouldn’t short it here. How’s that? >> Okay. Um, Wavy McFly. Wavey’s with us here um every day. Thank you, Wavy. Which sector is Danny most bullish on? Thanks. Exclamation point. >> Probably energy as a sector is I’m most bullish on. >> You already gave it. We You don’t >> I >> already gave it energy. >> Thank you, Wavy. All right, last thing. You just We started the show um with NFL picks. Uh you have been very good this year, by the way. So, let’s just rip through them. You know, NFL uh the NFC West with three teams. >> West is the best. >> Yeah, it it’s that’s insane. Okay, so let’s talk about these games really quickly. You’ll give your picks. I’ll give mine my picks to click. Buffalo at Denver. Denver was uh off last week. Uh Denver minus one and a half at home. What do you got? >> I’m going to take Denver. I’d love to see the Bills win it, but I’m going Denver minus one and a half. >> Okay. I am also going Denver minus one and a half. I think they beat the Bills by like 10. That’s my >> Bills are banged up. Denver had a week off. It means a lot in the NFL. having a >> love Josh Allen. Um I just think that this Denver team um they >> By the way, do you know that last week’s road win for the Bills in the playoffs was the first time that he’s won a road playoff game. Okay, >> that’s it’s nuts. Ner’s um I love that the Niners took down the Eagles um in Philadelphia uh the other day. I like this team. I know you’re going to say they’re banged up. Seattle, I told you I have no feel for that team. I really haven’t seen them play all year. So minus seven Seattle at home, number one seed. Yeah, third time they’re playing this year. I don’t like that game at all. It’s probably too many points. I think Seattle wins, but I’m short Sam Darnold for sure moving forward after that. So, >> stay away from that game. Yeah. >> Yep. I’m staying away too. Houston at New England. Uh New England. This is going to be what their second, you know, playoff game since what in three years or something like that. Um and uh obviously they won um last week or the other night. I mean, >> last night they beat Pittsburgh. You talking about New England or Houston? >> No, I’m talking about New England. Yeah, Houston really opened that thing up. Okay, so you have New England at home. Um, minus three. I think this is a team of destiny. Um, so minus three at home over the Houston Texans. Danny, what do you got? >> I like, you know, I like the money line there. Minus 162. If you go to Cali, it’s probably like, this is why I love the prediction markets more because it’s blends the 136 and 162. But, um, three is kind of the number is what I think it would be. But I’m am I do think that the Patri will win that game. So >> I’m taking the Patriots minus three. And by the way, I probably had I want to say 50 NFL bets this year. I haven’t I have not pushed on one game, which is kind of interesting. So >> well, if you notice if you notice the way the bookies like to do half points anyway, so they can always win or lose. So >> I like this at minus three. I’m gonna take it at minus three. All right, Rams at Bears. Just full disclosure, big Bears fan here. Um I the Rams minus four and a half. I already took it at minus three and a half. Uh >> no it’s three and a it opened at four and a half. It’s now three and a half. >> Okay. So I I have Bears getting three and a half at home. Again, a little bit skewed by my love of this team and the drought that they have had. This team is exciting as hell. The reason why I like them getting three and a half is I think if the Rams win, it’s going to come down to the very end and I think it wins by a field goal. So, I like getting um three and a half your thoughts. >> I concur. I think the Rams probably hold on and win. Uh Chicago’s gotten lucky a few times to be where they are. I’m rooting for the Bears. U if I had to take it, I would take the Bears plus three and a half here, but I think the Rams win that game. So, um that’s what I think. So, >> all right. I think you’re going to have a Bears New England Super Bowl, a rematch of the 85 Super Bowl. Danny’s shaking his head. All right. We we’ll do we’ll do the NFC and the AFC Championship. Okay. We’ll do it next week, Danny. All right. All right. Thanks everybody. Thank Danny, thank you for being here. I want to hit really quickly. You’re doing away from uh On the Tape, which drops every Wednesday. This is your second year. You took that thing over. Um it’s been great. And you get this great participation from uh Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins. We love it. The big short guys. Okay. Where can they find you guys? It’s not just on the tape. Go to YouTube, follow it, follow it in their podcast stores. That’s on the tape. What else you got? >> I got the Danny Moses show launching on Scripts News uh in about a week. Look at >> that. >> Um yeah, there it is. Um so >> where do you find that? Where do you find the Danny Moses show on Scripts News? >> Well, so they have a lot of local stations around the country, so I think they’re going to start to put it out there Friday nights at 7. It’ll probably look like, you know, combination of but between the ferns and something else. I’m just kidding. But um no, it’ll be great. Uh filming it here in Palm Beach in the NBC studio. They own a bunch of local stations around the country. So I’ll have guests on. It’s a 30 minute show with eight minutes of ads, so it’s really 22 minutes of content. So um they want to take a chance on me. It should be a very fun venture. And um so look for similar guests on the tape, but that audience and they can find it on on scripts.com. It’ll be streaming on their YouTube channel as well. I’ll make sure to send that out. I’ll keep everybody posted. So, >> all right, very last thing. The Substack. Give us the name. Give us where to find it. This thing has been awesome. I haven’t seen the script show just yet. Obviously, I’ll listen on the tape, but what I love here is the multidium platform. And the other thing is you guys have a Discord. You guys are inter interacting with those folks that you just talked about that are so good. Um, so you and you and uh and Vinnie Porter, you do this Friday night uh dirty and you do which is a post and you do the what are we doing which is a pod. You’ve had Michael Lewis on your commentary. You guys are awesome. Where can people go subscribe to your Substack? >> They go to Substack. What are we doing? Contrarians at the gate or what are we doing on the desk? I think docsubstack.com. Just come find us. It won’t be hard to find us when you when you obviously type their names in. But yeah, it’s been fun. We do do a weekly podcast called the Friday Night Dirty. It’s audio only and it goes to paying members and we’re up to about 5,000 total members here and we’re approaching kind of a thousand in the paid category. But I will say these people that are coming in and they are contributing a ton. As much as we’re giving out, we’re getting more back from people that are actually sharing their ideas as well. So that those Discord channels and Vinnie and Porter are in there all day answering questions and so forth. So it’s like a live teleathon going on in that place. So you get access to their Discord channel and you get to see who they’re interacting is and they get a lot of idea generation from there. So awesome, awesome, awesome. I honestly I can’t recommend it enough. I was one of those first of 1,000 people. Um so go check that out. Um obviously um subscribe to our Substack, which is really our newsletter where we’re giving a little commentary. CC Lagader, my main man. Um he’s writing a lot of great >> When did you start a Substack? What are you doing? When did that happen? >> You told us. You told us. We gota >> I gotta join. I’m gonna pay. >> Yeah. No, but I mean, listen, what it is, it’s our content and it’s commentary and um a lot of great stuff there. So, go subscribe to that. All right, Danny Moses, I could have done this for two hours with you. Um I hope we covered enough ground. We really appreciate all uh appreciate you all being here. Uh we will see you tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. I will not be on. I know that’s probably a great reason for a lot of you guys um to go watch it with Guy and uh I know that he’s got Carter and he’s got Liz uh Thomas. So uh great week coming up here. Thank you guys all very much for being here. Danny, >> thanks guys. Thanks Dan. >> Thanks for listening to the On the Tape podcast with Danny Moses. If you like what you heard, please subscribe on either Apple or Spotify to the weekly podcast and please leave a rating and review positive only. You can also watch on the on the tape channel on YouTube and give us a thumbs up there as well.
