Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95% | -0.28% | -0.28% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95% | -0.28% | -0.28% |
Royal London Cautious Managed Fund delivered -0.10% in Q1 2026, outperforming its benchmark by 0.13% during a volatile quarter dominated by Middle East geopolitical tensions. The fund tactically reduced equity exposure from overweight to underweight as the Iran conflict escalated, while increasing commodities allocation as oil prices surged 94% - the largest quarterly gain since the Gulf War. The proprietary Investment Clock methodology entered Overheat phase, supporting the overweight commodities positioning. Energy positioning proved beneficial as Brent crude reached $100 per barrel, reigniting global inflation concerns and forcing markets to price out expected central bank rate cuts. The fund maintained gold as a tactical hedge and moved to neutral in high yield bonds to protect against stagflationary risks. Technology valuations remain concerning at dot com era levels, with AI innovations potentially overblown short-term. Regional positioning was reduced across Japan and emerging markets as prior outperformers led declines. The manager remains vigilant on geopolitical risks while positioned for continued commodity strength.
Multi-asset positioning focused on tactical allocation adjustments in response to geopolitical developments and commodity price movements, with overweight commodities positioning supported by Investment Clock methodology entering Overheat phase.
The Investment Clock has entered Overheat following escalation in the Middle East, creating a positive backdrop for commodities where the fund remains overweight. With oil around $100 a barrel, markets have priced out expected central bank rate cuts. A Federal Reserve rate hike could trigger a de-rating in US technology. The manager continues to remain vigilant in case geopolitical risk continues to drive stock valuations lower.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | commodities, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, Iran, Multi-Asset, oil | - | Royal London Cautious Managed outperformed during volatile Q1 2026 by tactically reducing equity exposure as Iran conflict escalated while increasing commodities allocation. Oil surged 94% to $100, reigniting inflation concerns and forcing rate cut repricing. Investment Clock entered Overheat phase supporting commodities overweight. Technology valuations at concerning dot com era levels with AI innovations potentially overblown. |
| Dec 31 2025 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, global, gold, Japan, Multi-Asset, rates, technology | - | Royal London Cautious Managed Fund delivered strong Q4 performance with overweight global equities, particularly Japan. The Investment Clock signals Recovery phase with easing monetary policy supporting risk assets. Gold remains the most profitable hedge against dollar weakness. While tactically bullish on Fed rate cuts, managers warn of AI bubble risks and potential geopolitical volatility. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices surged dramatically during the quarter due to escalating Middle East conflict with Iran. Brent crude recorded its largest quarterly gain since the Gulf War in 1990 at +94%. The fund moved overweight energy as the conflict persisted and oil prices stayed elevated around $100 a barrel. |
Energy Commodities Geopolitical Iran Brent |
CommoditiesCommodities surged over the quarter as escalating geopolitical tensions culminated in direct military conflict with Iran. The Investment Clock entered Overheat phase which is a positive backdrop for commodities, and the fund has been overweight this asset class. |
Energy Gold Investment Clock Geopolitical Overheat | |
GoldThe fund continues to hold gold as a tactical hedge, which was positive for performance throughout 2025. Gold positioning is maintained as part of the commodities overweight in the current Overheat phase of the Investment Clock. |
Hedge Tactical Performance Commodities | |
AIThe AI boom is raising corporate earnings, but valuations are near levels last seen in the dot com era. There are concerns about uncertainty around the impact of new AI capabilities on software business models. Most new innovations get overblown in the short term. |
Valuations Technology Dot Com Software Innovation | |
InflationSharp rise in energy prices reignited inflation concerns, resulting in market sell-offs. Rising energy prices led to concerns that inflation could remain above target in Europe. Spiking energy prices are reigniting inflationary concerns across the globe. |
Energy Prices Central Banks Europe Target | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI-related valuations experienced volatility during Q4 with concerns about elevated valuations and 'AI bubble' dynamics. Growth sectors including AI faced weakness amid bubble concerns that frequently dominated headlines. The manager notes echoes of the late 1990s dotcom era in current AI boom valuations. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Valuations Growth |
GoldGold has been the fund's most profitable exposure over 2025, continuing to be held as a hedge. The manager initiated the gold position in July 2024 and it has been adding strong value since. US political and policy worries have been fueling gold alongside dollar weakness. |
Precious Metals Hedge Currency | |
RatesGovernment bond yields finished the quarter generally higher with differing monthly dynamics. The Fed delivered rate cuts bookending the quarter, with language suggesting a pause after three cuts in the final four months of 2025. Monetary policy continues to ease in most countries, which is supportive for equities. |
Interest Rates Central Banks Monetary Policy |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||