Gold & Silver Surge, But Miners Lag: John Rubino Explains Why
Summary
Precious Metals: Long-term bull case for gold and silver remains intact despite near-term corrections, driven by fiat currency stress and potential central bank easing.
Silver Shortage: Silver’s dual role (monetary and industrial) plus rising demand from solar, EVs, and defense could force large users to secure supply directly from mines.
Tesla (TSLA): Highlighted as a likely acquirer of silver supply, echoing its lithium strategy (processing buildout and equity stakes) to de-risk materials procurement.
Gold Miners: Cash flows and margins are surging; expectations for dividends, buybacks, and especially M&A to drive growth, with names like Newmont (NEM) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) cited.
Developers & Optionality: Seabridge (SA) noted for massive reserves and potential strategic value under higher long-term metal price assumptions.
Royalty Companies: Strong free cash flow from legacy deals at lower metal prices positions the space for consolidation, with larger players likely acquiring faster-growing mid-tiers.
Private Credit Risk: A potential credit crunch could initially pressure metals and miners, but policy response (easier money) historically triggers sharp rebounds in precious metals.
Energy/Oil Volatility: Middle East risks could swing oil dramatically, affecting global markets and miners’ costs; U.S. seen as more resilient versus Europe.
Transcript
We have all seen the runup in gold and silver prices, base metals to degree as well. But what about the mining stocks? Are they fully valued at this price? Have they caught up to where the precious metals already are? And of course, we need to discuss with our guest. Is the current price level sustainable? Are we headed higher? Are we headed lower? And what might influence the price action in the miners and the precious metals? Of course, lots to discuss, very little time, but I'm really excited to introduce or reintroduce John Robin to you. He's the author of the Rubino Substack. Really looking forward to catching up with him. One of my favorite guests here on the program and we're always getting phenomenal feedback when he's on. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and I always appreciate it. So, thanks so much for doing that. John, it is great to welcome you back. It's good to see you again. >> Hey, Kai. Good to see you again, too. And congratulations on the new mutual fund. I I predict you're going to make your clients a lot of money in the next decade. >> Oh, yeah. Let's Let's hope so. Let's uh let's hope so. I think the trend is our friend in this case. >> Um John, uh we need to >> cross the bridge between the macro and the micro a little bit. Let's start with the macro setup. Of course, gold and silver have had a tremendous run. Seems like they're consolidating a little bit. Um let's see where we're at right now. What's what's your opinion for the gold and silver price right now? Well, they've had phenomenal runs and normally you get big corrections after big runs and and this is, you know, a correction here would be to be expected. You know, it's not a not a big deal in a bull market. Although it feels like a big deal in a bull market, you know, but if you look at the chart of any long positive run for any asset, you see corrections that are just stomach turnurning at the time and they function to um to shake um shake out the weak hands and bring in strong hands um and then the bull market can continue. And with with gold and silver, um the long-term fundamentals remain great. I mean, gold is the alternative money when the fiat currencies of the world um start to fall in a disorderly way. And we're kind of in that time now. You know, we're we're in the um the death spiral of fiat currencies as we speak. And so it it you know it really doesn't matter if gold corrects in the short run because we've still got that that big parabolic run when um the dollar and the euro and the yen really start to fall off the table and capital starts pouring into alternative forms of money of which gold is the biggest and best. Um we'll be pulled along by gold when the time comes. you know, the gold silver ratio will still be um valid because silver is a um a lesser monetary metal, but still a monetary metal, but it's also got a great industrial metal story. So, I think no matter what happens in the short run with gold and silver, that they've got very bright futures, at least when valued in fiat currencies. So I I would use what's happening today if you're not fully invested in the mining stocks and in physical um to start looking at ways to um take this correction and exploit it by putting in some low ball bids or um selling some put options on some highquality mining stocks, things like that. You know that this is a a chance to add to your holdings if you aren't already fully invested. >> No, fantastic setup there. uh to to kick off the conversation because uh I can sense where this is going with my next question of course as well. The current geopolitical turmoil of course is making people nervous about a potential 2008 crash again. Um you know gas shortage or gasoline shortage might bring the global economy to a halt causing stock markets to crash. Like how how afraid of you are you of that happening and uh like how do you think that the precious metals will behave in that scenario? Well, right now we're in an interesting combination of the 1970s when we had a Middle Eastern war and and an oil crisis and rising inflation and soaring gold and silver. Um and the 2000s when we had um an asset class collapse and pull down the rest of the global economy. So that asset class this time would be private credit. um in in the US at least we have kind of a shadow banking system where there's a lot of companies um that are basically you know some rich guys pulling their assets then going out and wreaking havoc on the economy. Uh there there are now more private equity companies than there are McDonald's restaurants in the United States. So we've got a tremendous amount of money out there and nobody really knows where it is or what it's doing. Uh and especially nobody knows who holds some of that really bad paper. But some of those companies are starting to go broke now or to blow up. And we're seeing it with Blackstone. See, now is the first time if you get Blackstone and Black Rockck mixed up. Uh, now is the first time you can say that either one of them is imploding. And you'd be kind of right because they they both have big trouble with their their private credit portfolios. And I I think it's completely possible that because th this is so widespread and so big. It's much bigger than subprime mortgages were back in 2006. I think this could be the u the domino that falls first and then knocks a lot of other dominoes over. And of course, we have other things that could be that, but uh you know, the whole oil market thing uh could easily be the first domino. But it it's looking like uh private credit is a pretty good candidate right now. >> How will that affect the precious metals though? Because usually they're called a safe haven investment. Will they get pulled down initially as well because it's a run to liquidity or is that the the the flight to safety instead of the US dollar and the bond market perhaps? >> Well, if um if it's private credit that um starts to collapse and all the money starts pouring out of that sector, then that's really deflationary. That'll tank the stock market and and a lot of different fixed income markets, especially the really dicey ones that say private in their name. Uh, and that would be bad for gold and silver. Uh, at least the last couple of times, you know, in in 2008 and in 2022, I think it was. Um, when the stock market tanked, it pulled gold and silver and then the miners down for the ride. Um, now in both of those instances, the Federal Reserve and the other central banks stepped in with aggressively easy money right away and then gold and silver just took off. So it was a Vbottom for them in both cases and it was a great buying opportunity uh for the miners in that situation. So that's one possibility. The other possibility is that um coming when the crisis comes now when we're already very worried about the world's fiat currencies and we're ready, you know, we've already had wild gold and silver bull markets which has educated a lot of people about monetary issues that we've already got a lot of capital that's ready to flow into real assets as soon as there's any kind of a financial crisis. And it could be that uh as private credit starts to tank, a lot of the money that pours out of that sector goes into gold and silver. So, you know, in other words, I don't know. I don't I I don't know what gold and silver will do in the short run in this kind of mixed scenario. And then, of course, we've got AI as a wild card now, too. >> So, there there are a lot of things happening. So, private credit crunch, let's call it that, is it's just a bump in the road for gold and silver on a longer term trajectory here. >> Well, I if the Fed responds to a private credit bust that leads to an equities bare market the way we expect it to, you know, we we now expect the Fed to be aggressively easy going forward because Trump got his guy in. And you know, in that job interview, the uh the Trump said, "Are you going to cut interest rates dramatically if I give you this job?" And and the guy said, "Yes, of course, Mr. President." So, we we know that's going to happen. The Fed is going to aggressively ease when the time comes. Uh maybe sooner than it did in the previous um situations that were more or less similar to this one. Uh and and so that might light a fire under Gold and Silver right away. And I I think that that's very possible. Well, the question is, is he going to tighten the balance sheet or ease ease meaning continue QE and maybe even expand the balance sheet? Um, he used to be more of a a hawk, meaning he was protightening, but as you just pointed out, like why would he have gotten the job? He would say like, well, we're going to tighten and keep the interest rates as high as possible. Then, uh, yeah, disqualified immediately. >> Yeah. You got to think if he went into that interview as his old self that he he'd have been shown the door in like five minutes, right? Clearly, he made some promises >> that are kind of inconsistent with his his old >> Federal Reserve personality because he's been on the Fed before. >> So, we'll see. But I I think it's a easy money from the Fed is a very safe bet almost no matter what happens going forward. >> John, to set up the conversation about the miners, like what is your midterm projection for gold and silver? Just so we have an understanding, a level where we can work off of. Well, I'm useless about picking year. >> No, I don't need an exact number, but yeah, just just curious. Um because because it comes down to the valuations of the miners. That's why I want that as a setup. You're So, I'm asking for your long-term consensus pretty much. So, um >> I I think the long-term story is great for precious metals and that's that's really what you should be looking at because you know, you shouldn't try to time markets. um especially if you're a regular person who's not a professional market timer, you know, because you you'll just get eaten up by the traders in that market and you'll lose all your self-confidence and it'll take years for you to overcome the inferiority complex that comes from trying to trade financial markets. Um but you should be coming to a conclusion about the long-term trends and positioning yourself for those long-term trends. And that's a lot easier call because you know you look at the amount of debt that governments are taking on and the interest cost on that debt. You know you you see a financial crisis coming that results in um higher inflation uh which is to say crashing currency foreign exchange values and um and rising prices of real stuff. So start buying the real stuff. just gradually build a portfolio of physical precious metals and um and other kinds of commodities that governments can't make more of out of thin air. Um and just let that portfolio build up over time. Use dollar cost averaging, use low ball bids where you, you know, you put in a ridiculously low price and hope that you get a nice correction to make that price real, you know, and then you buy cheaply that way or um write put options. You know, there are lots of things you can do to gradually add to a portfolio at reasonably favorable prices. And you want to do that steadily as this thing plays out. And don't worry about the squiggles. You know, the squiggles will drive you insane. Like stuff the stuff that's going on right now. If you just bet the farm on mining stocks and you're a miserable person today because your mining stocks are getting crushed. But if you've been adding a little at a time over the past five or 10 years, you're still way up and you're seeing a chance to add to positions that are too small. So this this is psychologically healthy if you have the right attitude going into it. >> Absolutely. Yeah. Don't be run by emotions for sure. That's a that's another good piece of advice. Um John, I completely forgot to ask you about your opinion on silver cuz when we talk macro, we always come back down to gold. Um but not necessarily silver. Although you mentioned the gold silver ratio, I'm just curious, what's your outlook for silver? Will it track gold? Will the silver gold silver ratio stay at around 60 or will that change? Oh, silver is just such a great story because it's a monetary metal and 60 is a reasonable place to buy it if it's, you know, 160th of an ounce of gold. Um, but at the same time, it's an industrial metal that's in shortage. We do not produce enough silver to satisfy the global demand for silver. And that means we're using up all the above ground silver stocks to cover current demand. Um, and the technologies where silver is used are growing dramatically and improving in a lot of ways. Like the new generation solar panels use more silver than the current and older generations of of solar panels. Um, next generation electric car batteries um are phenomenal. If they pan out, you know, if the if the things that the battery makers are saying turn out to be true, then everybody's going to want an electric car. And those batteries use a lot more silver. And of course, today's missiles, which we're running out of and h and have to be replenished, use silver. So, you're going to reach a point where um I think we're going to see the users of silver um start taking extreme measures to guarantee their supplies going forward. And that's going to include um big users of silver going out and buying silver mines. And that we're already starting to see that happen. I think it was Samsung took a position in um a silver miner in Mexico where they get some portion of that silver mines's output. Well, that's very logical. You know, if you're Tesla or if you're General Dynamics and you're worried about not getting enough silver two years from now, you're going to take steps right now to um to make sure you do. And one way to do that is to buy a big silver mine. So I I think we see we see some really interesting stuff in the mining sector now where you have these whales coming in that uh that were certainly never there before and currently have insane amounts of money by the standards of mining. You know Tesla Tesla I think could buy all the silver miners if it wanted to without borrowing money just using you know resources it has at its disposal. uh and there are a lot of other big companies in kind of the same boat where they can easily um go buy a silver mine that will satisfy their demand for the next 20 or 30 years and that's phenomenal for mining. So, you know, I think that's the future for silver and I think it's going to be spectacular and that's leaving aside the uh the whole COMX default kind of thing that people are talking about that might be a nearterm catalyst. So, I I think um silver's not crazy cheap based on recent history right now, but I think it five years from now, we're going to look back and see $80 as a as a reasonable entry point for the metal based on what's happening now. >> Well, Tesla has done the same like has used that playbook before in the lithium space. They I built their own processing facility down in Texas and they bought into Petemont lithium I believe um and source their own material. So I'm curious to see if they do it again now in the silver space. Absolutely. So they've done it before, meaning they might do it again, right? >> Oh yeah, there's there's definitely precedence for it and there's just common sense on the side of doing that right now because if you run out of silver and your your assembly line has to stop, that's that's existential. You cannot let that happen. So if you have to pay up now, um that's very defensible before the board. You know, the CEO can say, "Hey, okay, look, we bought a bunch of silver." And the board will go, "Okay, wise move." Makes sense. Absolutely. Um John, perfect long long introduction here to to get to the mining companies, but I think this was necessary to understand where you're coming from now when it comes to the mining stock valuations that we're going to talk about because I I want to ask you like gold and silver have been consolidating at very high levels, 5200 or right around 5200. silver above 80 $85 right now. Um the mining stocks though are showing some weakness. Um it seems like people are getting out of the positions. They're happy to sell right now into into the liquidity that's available and the stocks are I wouldn't say being hammered, but they're selling off um slowly. It's not a crash or anything. I'm exag I don't want to exaggerate anything here, but I'm curious why have the miners decoupled now from the precious metals? Why are they going lower despite potentially higher margins in Q1 here? Well, uh, I think I think first of all, a lot of people are just looking at the general stock market. You know, if your tech stocks are giving you margin calls, but your mining stocks are up, then you kind of have to sell the thing that's up in order to get the cash to to keep the uh the broker from just cashing you out of all your tech stocks. You know, that that's one dynamic. Another dynamic is that people are looking at previous equities bare markets and the miners were not spared in those bare markets. So, uh if the the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are down hard, then it makes sense that there are people selling mining stocks. So, you know, this is to be expected. It's one of those um um corrections that you see in bull markets. But Kai, as you said, um the numbers are looking great, the operating numbers and financial numbers for these miners because they just um finish reporting the fourth quarter of 2025 and the numbers were phenomenal. It was the best fourth quarter ever, best quarter ever for a lot of these miners because they uh they didn't see their costs rise dramatically, but the price that they got for each ounce of metal that they were pulling out of the ground went way up. So their margins expanded, their cash flow turned into a torrent and and uh the first quarter of the year is almost done now. And we're looking at much higher prices in this quarter than the average price for the fourth fourth quarter. And that means the numbers are going to be even better when these companies start reporting. So you know, we're going to see a lot of good news come out for the miners in the not too distant future. Um, but more importantly than the immediate stock pop that they might get from it is the fact that now they've got a ton of cash. They've had multiple quarters of free cash flow. And most of the uh the highquality miners in the gold and silver space now have an awful lot of money with which to do things. And interestingly, a lot of them are reporting flat production and guiding lower for the year ahead. And uh so they're making a lot of cash. Their earnings are way up. So that's that part of the story I think is not obvious to everybody, but it could be part of uh what's making the miners weak right this minute. You know, people are thinking, well, these guys aren't even growing. You know, why would we buy something that's not growing? Um, and uh, I think what what is missed in that fear is that these guys are sitting on a ton of cash and they have a lot of free cash flow in the moment and they're going to do stuff with it. You know, they're going to if they're um um, royalty companies, they're going to go out and buy a bunch of new royalties. So, all of a sudden that flat to down guidance is obsolete. You know, those new royalties are going to start paying off and all of a sudden there's growth again. And if you're pneumont which guided lower in the uh the coming year um and you just made $2.8 billion of free cash flow in the fourth quarter alone uh you can go out and buy a tier one asset without breaking a sweat and and then that gives you growth going forward. And I think, you know, human nature being what it is, you got to expect the people in charge of these big high- quality miners with massive cash flow, um to not want to have to go um before stockholders and say, "Yeah, we're not growing. You know, we have we have down production in the year ahead." Because why would you want to admit that? You know, they're just going to yell at you and and you know, make you feel like you're a bad manager. And instead, you could go out and buy a tier one asset and boom, you know, that moves the needle. your growth is is rising and then you can go to the uh the stockholders and say okay we're growth in output massive increases in cash flow we are now a growth stock you know that's what you want to say when you're in front of the stockholders and these guys have the wherewithal to do it so I think they will do >> I had the pleasure of interviewing Michael Steinman of pen American silver the other day and he said we don't have to be growth or value right now we can be both >> right and because he said I used to count money in millions. Now I'm counting it in billions. And uh that's so true. Uh really excited like what you said like what what they're going to do with that money. Of course, we want the generalists to come back into our space, meaning they need a healthy dividend or more share buybacks here. But on the other hand, I do want to see that M&A starting to take place as well because I do own quite a few exploration companies. >> Well, if you're Pan-American Silver or Agnigal or Newmont, you can do everything. you know, you can raise that dividend and you can buy back stock and then you can go out and buy accretive assets and and just from current cash flow. So, it's a really nice time to be running a big minor because you basically can do all the things that stockholders love uh without going into debt to do it. So yeah, it's I I think that kind of an environment or those kind of numbers, it will eventually attract a lot of generalist money and then you'll see it reflected in the stock prices. >> Absolutely. All those big companies like Newmont Beric, their net cash right now are sitting on net cash positions which is phenomenal. Haven't seen that in 15 years at least. So >> yeah, and and it's only going to get better with the next report. So they they're seeing it increase in real time their their net cash. >> Yeah, absolutely. Um John, real quick, um oil price of course is is a is a topic um that could put a damper on things a little bit. I don't I don't see it below $100 that it causes massive margin increases. Is that something you're monitoring as well? And when do you get nervous? >> Well, um remember the last few crises, oil went up, um higher than it is now. Um, and if we adjusted for inflation, it went way higher than it is now. So, and um, this is potentially more serious than any of the other Middle East stuff we've had going on because this is a this is a serious war with the country that controls the straight of Hormuse, which is a big oil choke point. So, it's completely possible that we see $150 a barrel oil um, before this thing plays out. And it's also possible that they they come to an agreement, they cut a deal and and within the space of a couple of days, oil goes back down to $65 a barrel. So, it's not a thing to speculate on. I don't think that's a thing to survive. And different places are going to survive in different ways. The US, you know, we're in energy gigap power right now. I I don't think there's anything that can happen in the oil market that re that really threatens us existentially because we can just turn on the taps, produce more. We've got massive natural gas, plenty of coal. Um you know, it we're going to be okay. >> Uh and I I think other places are in in deeper trouble and Germany where you are is one of them. you know, where a lot of Europe just doesn't uh I don't know what what's going to happen if oil gets cut off and and and that leads to liquid natural gas being cut off. Uh and so I I think and and Asia is in a lot of the same boats kind of where where where they have x number of weeks or x number of months um in today's world before they run out of crucial energy assets and um and so they're definitely hoping for a quick end to the Middle Eastern war. Um and so should we all be but I think it's existentially threatening for some countries. And if we're international investors with portfolios of stocks from different parts of the world, we should be paying serious attention to that. >> John, we got all that renewable energy in Germany. We were not worried about anything. So, we're we're all good, right? >> Did you did you see Urs Ursa Vanderlayan um talking about nuclear just lately? >> Yes. She she wants she wants Europe to jump back into nuclear in a big way and and uh that's clean energy and everything, but she of course back in the day voted to close down all of Germany's nuclear plants. Some people have no shame, you know. Oh my god, >> they want Germany to fund France's nuclear energy infrastructure. Now Macron is just sitting there like, "Thank you." Just rubbing his white cat and >> France was one of the only countries in Europe who did it right. they they stayed with nuclear and they get a lot of their energy from nuclear power plants. So they're not really at risk here either and and so that gives them a lot of leverage in Europe and hopefully they use that leverage wisely, you know. >> Absolutely. And they have the lowest CO2 footprint for energy per like megawatt produced or something as well. >> Yep. They're the they're the greenest country in Europe right now with all their nuclear plants. >> It's it's amazing. Um, but we're we're drifting off like you always trigger me for some reason, John. We've had that discussion before on on this channel. Um, I want to stay on the miners though because I want to know like where do you see the action right now? Where do you see the biggest opportunities perhaps, John? Um, like it used to be the big miners of course, but I think they have had a move already, although they're correcting now and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'm just curious where do you see the biggest opportunities right now? Well, I I obviously I think the biggest opportunities are in the um the miners who are producing who maybe midterms or mid tiers give or take, but who can move the needle for a big minor because the big guys are out there for uh you know looking for that definitive deal where they they do it once all of a sudden they're growing again and they can just go back to counting their money. Um so if if you're a minor in that category, you're going to get a lot of phone calls in the uh the coming year. And if you're an investor in those miners, I don't think you want to be taking profits right now. This is a this is a good time just to sit back and watch the M&A play out. Uh and you know, there there are a few smaller miners with really big deposits right now that uh that that I think are interesting too. see some of the explorers get taken out at really nice premiums. But I think the the biggest category for M&A in the year ahead is the uh the highquality mid-tier producers and and maybe the developers who are bringing something really serious online. But that's that that's the space where I think there are a lot of opportunities. >> How far upstream do you go right now, John? Like if you when you allocate allocate capital, >> you mean um towards the biggest miners in general like or how small do you go when it comes to like explorers and because you touched on like some of the nicer explorers were taken out but uh it's a white space of course and uh like where where do is is it too early for the early stage explorers for example? Are we in that stage yet? Well, early stage explorers are kind of a crapshoot because you and I have both seen quite a few of them, you know, put up some great drill results and then just never pan out, never get bought out, never become a producing mind and they're still there, you know, and and uh this wouldn't be a good time for something like that because there are so many other opportunities in this space. But if uh if you know how to read drill results and you see a um an explorer um defining a potential tier one asset, then you know that's kind of like a lottery ticket at that point. You know, it's it's still a 10bagger if people haven't discovered it yet. >> And there's no reason not to own some of that. But the biggest immediate money is in the the upper echelons of this space. I mean, the the the big miners are just um generating so much free cash flow that that's just a great profile. And then the things they're going to buy are obviously a great profile. So, I I think if you stay in that space and the big ones are relatively safe, they don't get crushed in um an equities bare market that pulls down gold and silver nearly as much as the the little guys that nobody knows. You know, the generalist money will just pour out of them. Um, so and and the big guys will continue to pay a dividend and things like that. So they've got that kind of safety feature even though they're they're pretty richly priced. Uh, but yeah, I'm I'm telling people on Substack to start with the big names in the newsletters portfolio. Add some of those and as you gain an understanding of the space, start working your way down. Uh, and if you already know what you're doing with mining stocks, then go straight to the the mid tiers with big deposits, then you know, are you familiar with a company called Sebridge? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That that's one that kind of um confuses me a little bit because they have massive reserves. They've been just adding to their reserves for um over a decade now and they've they've got ounces per dollar of share price. that is just a crazy number. Um and u you know it wouldn't be surprising now at this point and but but it's not really um it hasn't been super economic. You know they they've been um high high cost ounces to get out of the ground. But I wonder if uh if somebody's going to come along and just say screw it, you know, we'll we'll assume $10,000 gold going forward and $200 silver and and um $8 cap copper or whatever and we'll just um you know, we'll just finance our growth this way for the next 20 years. And so, you know, there are a lot of interesting wild cards out there like that and I think we should own parts of all of them. >> Just just take out the whole camp. Sea bridge, twod dooror, and I think there's a third one, Gold Storm, I think, as well. So, um, they're all in that area, and combined they have a gazillion ounces. It's like literally a gazillion. I'm not even exaggerating. >> Yeah, I remember it was, you know, there was a time when it was 10 million ounces of Oh, no, I think it's like 50 million ounces now. Some some crazy number like that. You're right. >> So, no. Fantastic. Um, John, maybe last question because we haven't really touched on it. Just keep it brief. royalty companies. They used to be the safe haven investment or the the lowest risk investment during the bare market. How attractive are they to you right now? >> They're making a lot of money right now. Um there there was just a really interesting wait no I'm going to keep this short instead of going into my long-winded story about these two royalty companies, but uh uh that's a great business model. And the royalty companies today h they're sitting on deals they cut that were economic for them back when silver was $20 an ounce and gold was $2,000 an ounce or $1,800 an ounce. So those deals look really good now and they're generating massive amounts of cash too. So, it wouldn't be a surprise if there was a lot of M&A in that space where you see the big guys um who want to keep growing um buy out the faster growing mid tiers and some of the smaller ones uh just to get that growth because the the valuation makes it um worthwhile. You know, the the big guys are valued at a very high multiple of net asset value and the mid tiers are not nearly as richly valued. So if you're wheat and precious metals, you can buy a midterm royalty company and then instantly have those assets revalued at your higher multiple uh and it becomes a creative then. So it it makes a lot of sense to um to buy out some assets now I think. So I expect that in the future. >> Fantastic John like we could talk for hours about all the miners and what what's going on in the little like currents that we're seeing here right now. Um, but our audience, they need to follow your Substack. Where where can they find your work and uh just pitch us on it? >> Well, I'm at rabbino.substack.com and uh the the goal of the newsletter is to look for actionable advice for all of the crazy stuff that's happening in the world. And it's very precious metalsoriented, but also commoditiesoriented. So, I've got a portfolio there that uh by the way, I set up in in January of 2023, and it lost money for the whole year. That whole year was just embarrassing. Uh but since then it's done great and so there's a lot of winners there now but a lot of future winners as well. >> Fantastic. John, always enjoy our conversations. I really really really like them. Uh because like you you speak my language. Absolutely. So thanks so much for coming on. Always enjoy it. Um good luck and we'll we'll catch up very very soon. So can't wait to do this again. Thank you so much, John. And uh everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in. As you could tell, John and I, we definitely speak the same language. We love talking macro, but in the end, it's about making money on the micro side, meaning the mining stocks. And it's still a fantastic time despite the mining stocks maybe retreating a little bit. That's the buying opportunity potentially. Should buy by by the dip has probably come for the mining stocks and I'm stand fully behind that because I think we're not done yet with our bull market. This is a long-term trend and I I stand by that. We run a long only fund as well and uh we don't have nothing to gain from it. So, really appreciate you watching. If you haven't done so, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we really, really appreciate it. So, take care out there and uh don't let emotions run too hot and uh don't let emotions make your investments decisions for you. Take care out there.
Gold & Silver Surge, But Miners Lag: John Rubino Explains Why
Summary
Transcript
We have all seen the runup in gold and silver prices, base metals to degree as well. But what about the mining stocks? Are they fully valued at this price? Have they caught up to where the precious metals already are? And of course, we need to discuss with our guest. Is the current price level sustainable? Are we headed higher? Are we headed lower? And what might influence the price action in the miners and the precious metals? Of course, lots to discuss, very little time, but I'm really excited to introduce or reintroduce John Robin to you. He's the author of the Rubino Substack. Really looking forward to catching up with him. One of my favorite guests here on the program and we're always getting phenomenal feedback when he's on. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and I always appreciate it. So, thanks so much for doing that. John, it is great to welcome you back. It's good to see you again. >> Hey, Kai. Good to see you again, too. And congratulations on the new mutual fund. I I predict you're going to make your clients a lot of money in the next decade. >> Oh, yeah. Let's Let's hope so. Let's uh let's hope so. I think the trend is our friend in this case. >> Um John, uh we need to >> cross the bridge between the macro and the micro a little bit. Let's start with the macro setup. Of course, gold and silver have had a tremendous run. Seems like they're consolidating a little bit. Um let's see where we're at right now. What's what's your opinion for the gold and silver price right now? Well, they've had phenomenal runs and normally you get big corrections after big runs and and this is, you know, a correction here would be to be expected. You know, it's not a not a big deal in a bull market. Although it feels like a big deal in a bull market, you know, but if you look at the chart of any long positive run for any asset, you see corrections that are just stomach turnurning at the time and they function to um to shake um shake out the weak hands and bring in strong hands um and then the bull market can continue. And with with gold and silver, um the long-term fundamentals remain great. I mean, gold is the alternative money when the fiat currencies of the world um start to fall in a disorderly way. And we're kind of in that time now. You know, we're we're in the um the death spiral of fiat currencies as we speak. And so it it you know it really doesn't matter if gold corrects in the short run because we've still got that that big parabolic run when um the dollar and the euro and the yen really start to fall off the table and capital starts pouring into alternative forms of money of which gold is the biggest and best. Um we'll be pulled along by gold when the time comes. you know, the gold silver ratio will still be um valid because silver is a um a lesser monetary metal, but still a monetary metal, but it's also got a great industrial metal story. So, I think no matter what happens in the short run with gold and silver, that they've got very bright futures, at least when valued in fiat currencies. So I I would use what's happening today if you're not fully invested in the mining stocks and in physical um to start looking at ways to um take this correction and exploit it by putting in some low ball bids or um selling some put options on some highquality mining stocks, things like that. You know that this is a a chance to add to your holdings if you aren't already fully invested. >> No, fantastic setup there. uh to to kick off the conversation because uh I can sense where this is going with my next question of course as well. The current geopolitical turmoil of course is making people nervous about a potential 2008 crash again. Um you know gas shortage or gasoline shortage might bring the global economy to a halt causing stock markets to crash. Like how how afraid of you are you of that happening and uh like how do you think that the precious metals will behave in that scenario? Well, right now we're in an interesting combination of the 1970s when we had a Middle Eastern war and and an oil crisis and rising inflation and soaring gold and silver. Um and the 2000s when we had um an asset class collapse and pull down the rest of the global economy. So that asset class this time would be private credit. um in in the US at least we have kind of a shadow banking system where there's a lot of companies um that are basically you know some rich guys pulling their assets then going out and wreaking havoc on the economy. Uh there there are now more private equity companies than there are McDonald's restaurants in the United States. So we've got a tremendous amount of money out there and nobody really knows where it is or what it's doing. Uh and especially nobody knows who holds some of that really bad paper. But some of those companies are starting to go broke now or to blow up. And we're seeing it with Blackstone. See, now is the first time if you get Blackstone and Black Rockck mixed up. Uh, now is the first time you can say that either one of them is imploding. And you'd be kind of right because they they both have big trouble with their their private credit portfolios. And I I think it's completely possible that because th this is so widespread and so big. It's much bigger than subprime mortgages were back in 2006. I think this could be the u the domino that falls first and then knocks a lot of other dominoes over. And of course, we have other things that could be that, but uh you know, the whole oil market thing uh could easily be the first domino. But it it's looking like uh private credit is a pretty good candidate right now. >> How will that affect the precious metals though? Because usually they're called a safe haven investment. Will they get pulled down initially as well because it's a run to liquidity or is that the the the flight to safety instead of the US dollar and the bond market perhaps? >> Well, if um if it's private credit that um starts to collapse and all the money starts pouring out of that sector, then that's really deflationary. That'll tank the stock market and and a lot of different fixed income markets, especially the really dicey ones that say private in their name. Uh, and that would be bad for gold and silver. Uh, at least the last couple of times, you know, in in 2008 and in 2022, I think it was. Um, when the stock market tanked, it pulled gold and silver and then the miners down for the ride. Um, now in both of those instances, the Federal Reserve and the other central banks stepped in with aggressively easy money right away and then gold and silver just took off. So it was a Vbottom for them in both cases and it was a great buying opportunity uh for the miners in that situation. So that's one possibility. The other possibility is that um coming when the crisis comes now when we're already very worried about the world's fiat currencies and we're ready, you know, we've already had wild gold and silver bull markets which has educated a lot of people about monetary issues that we've already got a lot of capital that's ready to flow into real assets as soon as there's any kind of a financial crisis. And it could be that uh as private credit starts to tank, a lot of the money that pours out of that sector goes into gold and silver. So, you know, in other words, I don't know. I don't I I don't know what gold and silver will do in the short run in this kind of mixed scenario. And then, of course, we've got AI as a wild card now, too. >> So, there there are a lot of things happening. So, private credit crunch, let's call it that, is it's just a bump in the road for gold and silver on a longer term trajectory here. >> Well, I if the Fed responds to a private credit bust that leads to an equities bare market the way we expect it to, you know, we we now expect the Fed to be aggressively easy going forward because Trump got his guy in. And you know, in that job interview, the uh the Trump said, "Are you going to cut interest rates dramatically if I give you this job?" And and the guy said, "Yes, of course, Mr. President." So, we we know that's going to happen. The Fed is going to aggressively ease when the time comes. Uh maybe sooner than it did in the previous um situations that were more or less similar to this one. Uh and and so that might light a fire under Gold and Silver right away. And I I think that that's very possible. Well, the question is, is he going to tighten the balance sheet or ease ease meaning continue QE and maybe even expand the balance sheet? Um, he used to be more of a a hawk, meaning he was protightening, but as you just pointed out, like why would he have gotten the job? He would say like, well, we're going to tighten and keep the interest rates as high as possible. Then, uh, yeah, disqualified immediately. >> Yeah. You got to think if he went into that interview as his old self that he he'd have been shown the door in like five minutes, right? Clearly, he made some promises >> that are kind of inconsistent with his his old >> Federal Reserve personality because he's been on the Fed before. >> So, we'll see. But I I think it's a easy money from the Fed is a very safe bet almost no matter what happens going forward. >> John, to set up the conversation about the miners, like what is your midterm projection for gold and silver? Just so we have an understanding, a level where we can work off of. Well, I'm useless about picking year. >> No, I don't need an exact number, but yeah, just just curious. Um because because it comes down to the valuations of the miners. That's why I want that as a setup. You're So, I'm asking for your long-term consensus pretty much. So, um >> I I think the long-term story is great for precious metals and that's that's really what you should be looking at because you know, you shouldn't try to time markets. um especially if you're a regular person who's not a professional market timer, you know, because you you'll just get eaten up by the traders in that market and you'll lose all your self-confidence and it'll take years for you to overcome the inferiority complex that comes from trying to trade financial markets. Um but you should be coming to a conclusion about the long-term trends and positioning yourself for those long-term trends. And that's a lot easier call because you know you look at the amount of debt that governments are taking on and the interest cost on that debt. You know you you see a financial crisis coming that results in um higher inflation uh which is to say crashing currency foreign exchange values and um and rising prices of real stuff. So start buying the real stuff. just gradually build a portfolio of physical precious metals and um and other kinds of commodities that governments can't make more of out of thin air. Um and just let that portfolio build up over time. Use dollar cost averaging, use low ball bids where you, you know, you put in a ridiculously low price and hope that you get a nice correction to make that price real, you know, and then you buy cheaply that way or um write put options. You know, there are lots of things you can do to gradually add to a portfolio at reasonably favorable prices. And you want to do that steadily as this thing plays out. And don't worry about the squiggles. You know, the squiggles will drive you insane. Like stuff the stuff that's going on right now. If you just bet the farm on mining stocks and you're a miserable person today because your mining stocks are getting crushed. But if you've been adding a little at a time over the past five or 10 years, you're still way up and you're seeing a chance to add to positions that are too small. So this this is psychologically healthy if you have the right attitude going into it. >> Absolutely. Yeah. Don't be run by emotions for sure. That's a that's another good piece of advice. Um John, I completely forgot to ask you about your opinion on silver cuz when we talk macro, we always come back down to gold. Um but not necessarily silver. Although you mentioned the gold silver ratio, I'm just curious, what's your outlook for silver? Will it track gold? Will the silver gold silver ratio stay at around 60 or will that change? Oh, silver is just such a great story because it's a monetary metal and 60 is a reasonable place to buy it if it's, you know, 160th of an ounce of gold. Um, but at the same time, it's an industrial metal that's in shortage. We do not produce enough silver to satisfy the global demand for silver. And that means we're using up all the above ground silver stocks to cover current demand. Um, and the technologies where silver is used are growing dramatically and improving in a lot of ways. Like the new generation solar panels use more silver than the current and older generations of of solar panels. Um, next generation electric car batteries um are phenomenal. If they pan out, you know, if the if the things that the battery makers are saying turn out to be true, then everybody's going to want an electric car. And those batteries use a lot more silver. And of course, today's missiles, which we're running out of and h and have to be replenished, use silver. So, you're going to reach a point where um I think we're going to see the users of silver um start taking extreme measures to guarantee their supplies going forward. And that's going to include um big users of silver going out and buying silver mines. And that we're already starting to see that happen. I think it was Samsung took a position in um a silver miner in Mexico where they get some portion of that silver mines's output. Well, that's very logical. You know, if you're Tesla or if you're General Dynamics and you're worried about not getting enough silver two years from now, you're going to take steps right now to um to make sure you do. And one way to do that is to buy a big silver mine. So I I think we see we see some really interesting stuff in the mining sector now where you have these whales coming in that uh that were certainly never there before and currently have insane amounts of money by the standards of mining. You know Tesla Tesla I think could buy all the silver miners if it wanted to without borrowing money just using you know resources it has at its disposal. uh and there are a lot of other big companies in kind of the same boat where they can easily um go buy a silver mine that will satisfy their demand for the next 20 or 30 years and that's phenomenal for mining. So, you know, I think that's the future for silver and I think it's going to be spectacular and that's leaving aside the uh the whole COMX default kind of thing that people are talking about that might be a nearterm catalyst. So, I I think um silver's not crazy cheap based on recent history right now, but I think it five years from now, we're going to look back and see $80 as a as a reasonable entry point for the metal based on what's happening now. >> Well, Tesla has done the same like has used that playbook before in the lithium space. They I built their own processing facility down in Texas and they bought into Petemont lithium I believe um and source their own material. So I'm curious to see if they do it again now in the silver space. Absolutely. So they've done it before, meaning they might do it again, right? >> Oh yeah, there's there's definitely precedence for it and there's just common sense on the side of doing that right now because if you run out of silver and your your assembly line has to stop, that's that's existential. You cannot let that happen. So if you have to pay up now, um that's very defensible before the board. You know, the CEO can say, "Hey, okay, look, we bought a bunch of silver." And the board will go, "Okay, wise move." Makes sense. Absolutely. Um John, perfect long long introduction here to to get to the mining companies, but I think this was necessary to understand where you're coming from now when it comes to the mining stock valuations that we're going to talk about because I I want to ask you like gold and silver have been consolidating at very high levels, 5200 or right around 5200. silver above 80 $85 right now. Um the mining stocks though are showing some weakness. Um it seems like people are getting out of the positions. They're happy to sell right now into into the liquidity that's available and the stocks are I wouldn't say being hammered, but they're selling off um slowly. It's not a crash or anything. I'm exag I don't want to exaggerate anything here, but I'm curious why have the miners decoupled now from the precious metals? Why are they going lower despite potentially higher margins in Q1 here? Well, uh, I think I think first of all, a lot of people are just looking at the general stock market. You know, if your tech stocks are giving you margin calls, but your mining stocks are up, then you kind of have to sell the thing that's up in order to get the cash to to keep the uh the broker from just cashing you out of all your tech stocks. You know, that that's one dynamic. Another dynamic is that people are looking at previous equities bare markets and the miners were not spared in those bare markets. So, uh if the the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are down hard, then it makes sense that there are people selling mining stocks. So, you know, this is to be expected. It's one of those um um corrections that you see in bull markets. But Kai, as you said, um the numbers are looking great, the operating numbers and financial numbers for these miners because they just um finish reporting the fourth quarter of 2025 and the numbers were phenomenal. It was the best fourth quarter ever, best quarter ever for a lot of these miners because they uh they didn't see their costs rise dramatically, but the price that they got for each ounce of metal that they were pulling out of the ground went way up. So their margins expanded, their cash flow turned into a torrent and and uh the first quarter of the year is almost done now. And we're looking at much higher prices in this quarter than the average price for the fourth fourth quarter. And that means the numbers are going to be even better when these companies start reporting. So you know, we're going to see a lot of good news come out for the miners in the not too distant future. Um, but more importantly than the immediate stock pop that they might get from it is the fact that now they've got a ton of cash. They've had multiple quarters of free cash flow. And most of the uh the highquality miners in the gold and silver space now have an awful lot of money with which to do things. And interestingly, a lot of them are reporting flat production and guiding lower for the year ahead. And uh so they're making a lot of cash. Their earnings are way up. So that's that part of the story I think is not obvious to everybody, but it could be part of uh what's making the miners weak right this minute. You know, people are thinking, well, these guys aren't even growing. You know, why would we buy something that's not growing? Um, and uh, I think what what is missed in that fear is that these guys are sitting on a ton of cash and they have a lot of free cash flow in the moment and they're going to do stuff with it. You know, they're going to if they're um um, royalty companies, they're going to go out and buy a bunch of new royalties. So, all of a sudden that flat to down guidance is obsolete. You know, those new royalties are going to start paying off and all of a sudden there's growth again. And if you're pneumont which guided lower in the uh the coming year um and you just made $2.8 billion of free cash flow in the fourth quarter alone uh you can go out and buy a tier one asset without breaking a sweat and and then that gives you growth going forward. And I think, you know, human nature being what it is, you got to expect the people in charge of these big high- quality miners with massive cash flow, um to not want to have to go um before stockholders and say, "Yeah, we're not growing. You know, we have we have down production in the year ahead." Because why would you want to admit that? You know, they're just going to yell at you and and you know, make you feel like you're a bad manager. And instead, you could go out and buy a tier one asset and boom, you know, that moves the needle. your growth is is rising and then you can go to the uh the stockholders and say okay we're growth in output massive increases in cash flow we are now a growth stock you know that's what you want to say when you're in front of the stockholders and these guys have the wherewithal to do it so I think they will do >> I had the pleasure of interviewing Michael Steinman of pen American silver the other day and he said we don't have to be growth or value right now we can be both >> right and because he said I used to count money in millions. Now I'm counting it in billions. And uh that's so true. Uh really excited like what you said like what what they're going to do with that money. Of course, we want the generalists to come back into our space, meaning they need a healthy dividend or more share buybacks here. But on the other hand, I do want to see that M&A starting to take place as well because I do own quite a few exploration companies. >> Well, if you're Pan-American Silver or Agnigal or Newmont, you can do everything. you know, you can raise that dividend and you can buy back stock and then you can go out and buy accretive assets and and just from current cash flow. So, it's a really nice time to be running a big minor because you basically can do all the things that stockholders love uh without going into debt to do it. So yeah, it's I I think that kind of an environment or those kind of numbers, it will eventually attract a lot of generalist money and then you'll see it reflected in the stock prices. >> Absolutely. All those big companies like Newmont Beric, their net cash right now are sitting on net cash positions which is phenomenal. Haven't seen that in 15 years at least. So >> yeah, and and it's only going to get better with the next report. So they they're seeing it increase in real time their their net cash. >> Yeah, absolutely. Um John, real quick, um oil price of course is is a is a topic um that could put a damper on things a little bit. I don't I don't see it below $100 that it causes massive margin increases. Is that something you're monitoring as well? And when do you get nervous? >> Well, um remember the last few crises, oil went up, um higher than it is now. Um, and if we adjusted for inflation, it went way higher than it is now. So, and um, this is potentially more serious than any of the other Middle East stuff we've had going on because this is a this is a serious war with the country that controls the straight of Hormuse, which is a big oil choke point. So, it's completely possible that we see $150 a barrel oil um, before this thing plays out. And it's also possible that they they come to an agreement, they cut a deal and and within the space of a couple of days, oil goes back down to $65 a barrel. So, it's not a thing to speculate on. I don't think that's a thing to survive. And different places are going to survive in different ways. The US, you know, we're in energy gigap power right now. I I don't think there's anything that can happen in the oil market that re that really threatens us existentially because we can just turn on the taps, produce more. We've got massive natural gas, plenty of coal. Um you know, it we're going to be okay. >> Uh and I I think other places are in in deeper trouble and Germany where you are is one of them. you know, where a lot of Europe just doesn't uh I don't know what what's going to happen if oil gets cut off and and and that leads to liquid natural gas being cut off. Uh and so I I think and and Asia is in a lot of the same boats kind of where where where they have x number of weeks or x number of months um in today's world before they run out of crucial energy assets and um and so they're definitely hoping for a quick end to the Middle Eastern war. Um and so should we all be but I think it's existentially threatening for some countries. And if we're international investors with portfolios of stocks from different parts of the world, we should be paying serious attention to that. >> John, we got all that renewable energy in Germany. We were not worried about anything. So, we're we're all good, right? >> Did you did you see Urs Ursa Vanderlayan um talking about nuclear just lately? >> Yes. She she wants she wants Europe to jump back into nuclear in a big way and and uh that's clean energy and everything, but she of course back in the day voted to close down all of Germany's nuclear plants. Some people have no shame, you know. Oh my god, >> they want Germany to fund France's nuclear energy infrastructure. Now Macron is just sitting there like, "Thank you." Just rubbing his white cat and >> France was one of the only countries in Europe who did it right. they they stayed with nuclear and they get a lot of their energy from nuclear power plants. So they're not really at risk here either and and so that gives them a lot of leverage in Europe and hopefully they use that leverage wisely, you know. >> Absolutely. And they have the lowest CO2 footprint for energy per like megawatt produced or something as well. >> Yep. They're the they're the greenest country in Europe right now with all their nuclear plants. >> It's it's amazing. Um, but we're we're drifting off like you always trigger me for some reason, John. We've had that discussion before on on this channel. Um, I want to stay on the miners though because I want to know like where do you see the action right now? Where do you see the biggest opportunities perhaps, John? Um, like it used to be the big miners of course, but I think they have had a move already, although they're correcting now and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'm just curious where do you see the biggest opportunities right now? Well, I I obviously I think the biggest opportunities are in the um the miners who are producing who maybe midterms or mid tiers give or take, but who can move the needle for a big minor because the big guys are out there for uh you know looking for that definitive deal where they they do it once all of a sudden they're growing again and they can just go back to counting their money. Um so if if you're a minor in that category, you're going to get a lot of phone calls in the uh the coming year. And if you're an investor in those miners, I don't think you want to be taking profits right now. This is a this is a good time just to sit back and watch the M&A play out. Uh and you know, there there are a few smaller miners with really big deposits right now that uh that that I think are interesting too. see some of the explorers get taken out at really nice premiums. But I think the the biggest category for M&A in the year ahead is the uh the highquality mid-tier producers and and maybe the developers who are bringing something really serious online. But that's that that's the space where I think there are a lot of opportunities. >> How far upstream do you go right now, John? Like if you when you allocate allocate capital, >> you mean um towards the biggest miners in general like or how small do you go when it comes to like explorers and because you touched on like some of the nicer explorers were taken out but uh it's a white space of course and uh like where where do is is it too early for the early stage explorers for example? Are we in that stage yet? Well, early stage explorers are kind of a crapshoot because you and I have both seen quite a few of them, you know, put up some great drill results and then just never pan out, never get bought out, never become a producing mind and they're still there, you know, and and uh this wouldn't be a good time for something like that because there are so many other opportunities in this space. But if uh if you know how to read drill results and you see a um an explorer um defining a potential tier one asset, then you know that's kind of like a lottery ticket at that point. You know, it's it's still a 10bagger if people haven't discovered it yet. >> And there's no reason not to own some of that. But the biggest immediate money is in the the upper echelons of this space. I mean, the the the big miners are just um generating so much free cash flow that that's just a great profile. And then the things they're going to buy are obviously a great profile. So, I I think if you stay in that space and the big ones are relatively safe, they don't get crushed in um an equities bare market that pulls down gold and silver nearly as much as the the little guys that nobody knows. You know, the generalist money will just pour out of them. Um, so and and the big guys will continue to pay a dividend and things like that. So they've got that kind of safety feature even though they're they're pretty richly priced. Uh, but yeah, I'm I'm telling people on Substack to start with the big names in the newsletters portfolio. Add some of those and as you gain an understanding of the space, start working your way down. Uh, and if you already know what you're doing with mining stocks, then go straight to the the mid tiers with big deposits, then you know, are you familiar with a company called Sebridge? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That that's one that kind of um confuses me a little bit because they have massive reserves. They've been just adding to their reserves for um over a decade now and they've they've got ounces per dollar of share price. that is just a crazy number. Um and u you know it wouldn't be surprising now at this point and but but it's not really um it hasn't been super economic. You know they they've been um high high cost ounces to get out of the ground. But I wonder if uh if somebody's going to come along and just say screw it, you know, we'll we'll assume $10,000 gold going forward and $200 silver and and um $8 cap copper or whatever and we'll just um you know, we'll just finance our growth this way for the next 20 years. And so, you know, there are a lot of interesting wild cards out there like that and I think we should own parts of all of them. >> Just just take out the whole camp. Sea bridge, twod dooror, and I think there's a third one, Gold Storm, I think, as well. So, um, they're all in that area, and combined they have a gazillion ounces. It's like literally a gazillion. I'm not even exaggerating. >> Yeah, I remember it was, you know, there was a time when it was 10 million ounces of Oh, no, I think it's like 50 million ounces now. Some some crazy number like that. You're right. >> So, no. Fantastic. Um, John, maybe last question because we haven't really touched on it. Just keep it brief. royalty companies. They used to be the safe haven investment or the the lowest risk investment during the bare market. How attractive are they to you right now? >> They're making a lot of money right now. Um there there was just a really interesting wait no I'm going to keep this short instead of going into my long-winded story about these two royalty companies, but uh uh that's a great business model. And the royalty companies today h they're sitting on deals they cut that were economic for them back when silver was $20 an ounce and gold was $2,000 an ounce or $1,800 an ounce. So those deals look really good now and they're generating massive amounts of cash too. So, it wouldn't be a surprise if there was a lot of M&A in that space where you see the big guys um who want to keep growing um buy out the faster growing mid tiers and some of the smaller ones uh just to get that growth because the the valuation makes it um worthwhile. You know, the the big guys are valued at a very high multiple of net asset value and the mid tiers are not nearly as richly valued. So if you're wheat and precious metals, you can buy a midterm royalty company and then instantly have those assets revalued at your higher multiple uh and it becomes a creative then. So it it makes a lot of sense to um to buy out some assets now I think. So I expect that in the future. >> Fantastic John like we could talk for hours about all the miners and what what's going on in the little like currents that we're seeing here right now. Um, but our audience, they need to follow your Substack. Where where can they find your work and uh just pitch us on it? >> Well, I'm at rabbino.substack.com and uh the the goal of the newsletter is to look for actionable advice for all of the crazy stuff that's happening in the world. And it's very precious metalsoriented, but also commoditiesoriented. So, I've got a portfolio there that uh by the way, I set up in in January of 2023, and it lost money for the whole year. That whole year was just embarrassing. Uh but since then it's done great and so there's a lot of winners there now but a lot of future winners as well. >> Fantastic. John, always enjoy our conversations. I really really really like them. Uh because like you you speak my language. Absolutely. So thanks so much for coming on. Always enjoy it. Um good luck and we'll we'll catch up very very soon. So can't wait to do this again. Thank you so much, John. And uh everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in. As you could tell, John and I, we definitely speak the same language. We love talking macro, but in the end, it's about making money on the micro side, meaning the mining stocks. And it's still a fantastic time despite the mining stocks maybe retreating a little bit. That's the buying opportunity potentially. Should buy by by the dip has probably come for the mining stocks and I'm stand fully behind that because I think we're not done yet with our bull market. This is a long-term trend and I I stand by that. We run a long only fund as well and uh we don't have nothing to gain from it. So, really appreciate you watching. If you haven't done so, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we really, really appreciate it. So, take care out there and uh don't let emotions run too hot and uh don't let emotions make your investments decisions for you. Take care out there.