Trump blinked: Is Peace Now On The Table In The Middle East? | Alex Krainer
Summary
Geopolitical Shock: Discussion centered on the Iran–U.S.–Israel standoff, with Trump announcing a temporary pause on strikes and markets reacting sharply.
Energy Security: Multiple references to threats against power, desalination, and energy infrastructure across the region, underscoring systemic risk to supply chains.
Oil Transport Risks: The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea were highlighted as critical chokepoints, with past efforts to secure maritime lanes described as ineffective.
Marine & Shipping: Failure to keep the Red Sea open and the strategic importance of alternative routes (e.g., Russia–Iran North–South corridor) were emphasized.
Aerospace & Defense: Analysis of U.S. military capabilities and logistics limits (F-35s, A-10s, force requirements) suggested prolonged conflict scenarios rather than quick victories.
Russia & China: Iran’s role as a security anchor for the region and its importance to China’s BRI and Russia’s trade routes point to sustained great-power support for Tehran.
Market Moves: Immediate reaction included a gold surge and oil decline on de-escalation headlines, but the guest expects persistent conflict risk.
Investment Takeaway: No specific tickers were recommended; key opportunities and risks revolve around energy security, oil transport, and marine logistics exposure amid heightened geopolitical risk.
Transcript
I mean, imagine having A10 Warthogs and F-35s and having to subdue an enemy the size of Europe. >> Like, what where are you going to go with that? What? You're going to you're going to make some scratches. You're going to poke some holes. But if you had a thousand F-35s, you would not be able to to win from the air. And then to go with boots on the ground, I I don't know how many troops you would you would need, but you would probably need a million or more. And that doesn't work either. >> President Trump just said markets and just everybody into a tail spin here. uh he just posted that he's postponing attacks on Iranian infrastructure or energy infrastructure by at least 5 days based on really positive and constructive conversations he's had with the Iranian government about potential ending or a potential end of all hostilities towards Iran. Well, the market has reacted. Futures has turn have turned green. Gold rallied almost $300. Oil is down 5% and more as we record this on March 23rd at 1:12 p.m. And uh I've invited a fantastic guest ahead of this tweet by the way u to have a discussion about what is happening on a geopolitical side and this is perfect timing. We should be recording this live Alex but uh his his name is Alex Kina. He's he's naked hedgy over on X. He's also accomplished Substack author and he just relaunched his YouTube channel again this year. So really excited for that development. But before I switch over to my guest, hit hit like and subscribe on our YouTube channel and we really appreciate it. Now, Alex, it's great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Thank you for the invite, Kai. Always a pleasure to join you and warm greetings to everyone out there. >> Yeah, Alex, we have lots to talk about. 30 minutes to do so. Let's jump right in. Just about an hour and now 8 minutes ago, we got this post on Truth Social from President Trump. And I'll just quickly read it. I'm pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and the tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a 5-day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Alex, besides the spelling mistakes, what is your takeaway from this tweet and what does it really mean? >> Uh well uh first of all uh uh this is a very positive development because you know uh uh 5 days pause uh might create an opening to resolve the conflict without further destruction and bloodshed. But beyond this, you know, uh to me it means that Trump blinked because, you know, he was he was playing chicken with the Iranians. And you know, the problem is that the Iranians uh didn't start this conflict and to them this conflict is ex existential. It's this is no this is no joke. This is no poker game. This is absolutely existential for them. They can't move their country elsewhere. uh their country is surrounded by hostile military bases and hostile proxy regimes and uh they've been attacked. So uh there's clearly a a readiness and determination to fight to the bitter end which means you know they the logic of conflict is that they they to them this is no game of chicken to them this is do or die. So if Trump escalates, they have they can't um how do you say capitulate? They have to escalate tit for tat. >> And so they said, you know, when he said um well, you know, Trump's rhetoric has been changing practically on an hourly basis. You know, on the 20th of March, he says, "Oh, what do we care about gate of Hormuz?" You know, uh the Straight of Hormuz, it doesn't affect us. Hardly any of our cargos go through there. It's this is Europe and China so they can they can fix it. And then 24 hours later less he says uh I'm giving Iran 24 hour 48 hours to open the straight of Hormuz or else I'm going to blow up all their electricity infrastructure. And then the Iranians come back and they say like, well, if you strike our electricity infrastructure, we're going to destroy all the energy and desalination and electricity infrastructure of all the uh of the of the region because, you know, they all practically serve US military bases among other among other things. And then he tweets, oh, you know, don't do this because if you do, then I'm going to have to escalate. Which, you know, he didn't mention nuclear weapons, but he pretty much implied that he would be uh going the the the nuclear way. and uh Iranians didn't blink, >> you know. >> Uh and so he had to he had to um take take a big step back because he realized that they can't and they won't. And so if intimidation didn't work, then he has to uh find a face- saving way out. And I guess a face saving way out is to pretend that there's negotiations going on, which apparently there aren't, or at least the Iranians are not saying. I mean, I I I saw an interview with an Iranian official last night and he was saying there's no room for diplomacy anymore because Trump has been very deceitful and he stabbed us in the back. Basically, that's what he said. So, what's the point in negotiating if he will not abide by any commitment that he makes? Can can I jump in real quick, Alex, because we got a bit of a statement here from from Tasnam, Iranian news agency as well, which is being uh, you know, debated now whether it's factual and who who the sources, of course, because there no names are being mentioned, but um, this is from Bloomberg. Now, Iran's semi-official TASM news agency is now also reporting Iran is not in talks and there have been no talks with Trump and they call it psychological warfare. Um, so it's it's a bit of a like fog of war. who do we believe here and what is true, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Correct. But you know, also uh uh we have to keep in mind that I Iranians have been preparing for this conflict for more than two decades. And uh I I believe that part of those preparations are to continue fighting even in the case that the central government in Thran falls. You know, even if they manage somehow to overtake government buildings and government structures and bring their sha uh to uh to Thran and declared that there's a new government, the IRGC is not going to stop fighting. They're not going to take orders from this central government. So it would be a a situation like in Afghanistan where you know the the the United States managed to take down the government in Kabo. Uh they thought they uh could pacify and tame the country but 20 years later they had to give the country back to the Taliban to the same Taliban that they thought that they had defeated. And I think that um you know I don't know if the Taliban planned it that way but I think that the Iranians are planning it that way. And this is why uh they have divided their military uh uh command and control structure into 21 dis districts that are practically autonomous and that they would that that will only take orders from the supreme leader. And so uh a supreme leader is the one instance that will not uh presumably capitulate to the Americans. And so no other you know even even if you manage to regime change tan you wouldn't get control of Iran. They their their armed forces would continue to fight. You gain nothing from it. >> Yeah. I think I mentioned it in an other interview, but it's ideological versus economic warfare. Perhaps ideological is they don't really care. Meaning Iran, what happens to infrastructure? That's why you said they didn't blink at all cuz for for them it actually is like do or die. It's it's about survival. So they don't really care about the economic impact, I would assume. Um while the US has economic limits, I would I would say and it's not just purely ideological. It's not a religious war we're fighting here as far as I know. Right. Yeah, correct. You know, the United States has all kinds of limitations. You know, there's a there's a conviction limitation, there's morale limitation, there's logistics limitation. Uh there's uh thousands of miles of logistical chain that chains that have to feed the war effort. Iran doesn't have any of those problems and they don't have the conviction problem and they don't have the morale problem. And so uh you know if if the United States was not able to subdue the Taliban in Afghanistan after 20 years of trying, if they were not able to subdue uh Ansarala in Yemen, the Houthis uh uh after 10 years of trying you know uh first with through uh Saudis using Saudis as a proxy and then they themselves you know in March in March of uh 20 no in December of 2023 they launched the operation uh prosperity guardian and they were going to defeat uh the Houthis and keep the the Red Sea open for maritime traffic and they failed and then you know Trump Trump came to the White House and then last March a year ago they launched the operation Rough Rider and then Trump was tweeting uh we're bombing them like nobody's ever seen before you know it was all this rah rah rah look how tough we are we are, you know, they were they were boasting with this big military machinery, the greatest military ever in the world. You know, it is the greatest military in the world, but it's also spread thin all across the world with some 800 military bases everywhere. And so, you know, they cannot bring the whole thing to bear on one enemy. And and if they do, it's it's a massive nightmare of a of a of a logistics operation. And then they they are not as powerful as they were 30 years ago. And their enemies are a lot more powerful, a lot bolder, and a lot more uh self-confident than they were 30 years ago because they've seen what happened in Afghanistan and they've seen what happened in the Red Sea with the Houthis. And then you know Iran is far far more powerful than than Yemen and then Afghanistan. And then the size of the country, my god, you know, like it's it's like Western Europe. >> It's 92 million people plus you, you know, people are, oh, you know, F-35s. Oh, A10 warog warthogs. Uh, we're going to we're going to, I mean, imagine having A10 warthogs and F-35s and having to subdue an enemy the size of Europe. >> Like, what where are you going to go with that? What? You're going to you're going to make some scratches? you're going to poke some holes, but if you had a thousand F-35s, you would not be able to to win from the air. And then to go with boots on the ground, I I don't know how many troops you would you would need, but you would probably need a million or more. And that doesn't work either because all that would need to be supported by very very robust logistics operations. You know, you need to feed the troop, you need to water them, they need fuel, spare parts, all kinds of everything. And they need rest. You need to you need to rotate them, you know. And where's Iran? It's a bit far from where you are. It's well, you know, this is why uh Iran has been in the crosshairs of the empire. Sorry about that. Iran has been in the crosshairs of the empire. He'll he'll be punished afterwards. Uh since for for many many years, you know, it was you know that speech that General Wesley Clark gave about an a Pentagon official telling him, "We're going to do seven countries in five years." That was in 2001. So Iran was due for a regime change within 2006. We are now 20 years past due, past due date for Iran regime change. Do you know why? Because nobody so far dared because the intelligence community, you know, community, the intelligence complex in the United States was telling their presidents, we can't do this. we can't be sure that we will win. This could get out of control. Uh it's it's best not to. So, no president so far has dared to attack Iran. It's not because they don't want to is because they never dared until Donald Trump. And uh there we are. You know, uh we we now see the consequences of the fact that wars are very very easy to start. they're extremely difficult to uh conclude and hold under control. >> So So how do you see this play out now, Alex? Like what's the what's the the most likely scenario? Not the optimal scenario, but the most likely scenario here. >> I I I think Kai, that the most likely scenario is not the easiest way out for anybody. But I think that, you know, we have to take into account that Iran has been harassed by Western colonial powers for 120 years now, more than 120 years now. It's been wars, invasions, uh proxy wars, sabotage, regime change wars, uh terrorism, you know, uh MEK, the the the the Iranian dissident terrorist group has been abundantly funded by Western intelligence agencies, uh CIA, MI6 Mossad to to conduct terror attacks and sabotage in in Iran. uh sanctions, maximum pressure sanctions uh stringing stringing along the regime uh with neverending negotiations that almost as soon as the paper dry the ink dries on on the piece of paper the western power already powers already uh renegade on all their commitments. So, it's not going anywhere. And meanwhile, Iran is surrounded by hostile military bases. And Israel there is for forever forever committed to going to war against Iran and dragging the collective west along with them. So, this is like a democ sword over over Iranians heads. And I think that now that they've been attacked, I think they will not allow the status quo to go back. And what I mean by this is I believe that they will seek to evict the United States and other Western powers from the region entirely. And I wouldn't exclude the possibility that they will uh seek to end Iran, Israel as it is constituted today. Is that even like a possibility? Like does Iran even have the possibilities to do that? It seems like attacks have slowed down even on neighboring countries which we also need to talk about. Meaning like Saudi Arabia, United Emirates, uh Qatar. Um is that even still possible? Yes. Like I I get where you're coming from, but does Iran still have that strength perhaps? Um that's very hard to say you know but uh Iran has been cultivating this axis of resistance in the region. Um this force has not disappeared. You know uh Hezbollah is back in action. >> Hamas has not been defeated. Uh the Yemenes apparently uh just announced I think over the weekend that they are joining the war against the United States on the side of Iran. Uh you have large populations in many of these countries like Saudi Arabia, uh Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, um Jordan, Syria that are restless. uh Syrian you know when Bashar al-Assad's regime fell uh Syrian Arab army didn't disappear uh parts of it uh whole tank tank divisions went over to Iran and uh they are still somewhere they didn't vaporize uh parts of it went to Lebanon so it's very very difficult to uh predict what might happen but you Israel is not going to stop attacking Lebanon, bombing Syria. Um probably they, you know, Trump may tell them to stop bombing um Iran, but they might not. So I I don't see that the region suddenly falls to peace, you know, that that that suddenly everybody buries their their hatchet and uh they agree to some kind of a peace deal. Israel is the obstacle to that. And so so long as Israel is at war, uh the United States is on the hook and the Iranians see their national security as as under threat and jeopardize. So I don't think that they will stop. Uh whether they have strength or not, we we will find out in time. But you know um former former Russian defense minister Sergey Shyu just uh posted something I think on X the other day where they said that Iranians still have weapons that we have not even seen yet that are he said this is what he said. Iranians have arsenals of weapons that can destroy not only Israel but the whole of the Middle East. They haven't used them yet and we haven't seen them yet. And so he said, "We strongly advise all parties to immediately stop uh hostilities." This may have influenced uh Trump's blinking, you know, because uh Americans and Russians are still in context. They they are still um communicating with one another and it may be that the Russians told Trump, "Look, uh this could end horribly badly. You have to stop." >> Well, we've seen Iran apparently attack uh the the US base in the Indian Ocean there, 4,000 kilometers away. I've just been reading some some facts about that. It might have been an Israeli submarine that fired at it as well. Um, like again, fog of war, right? Like what do the Iranians really have and who is really shooting these days? Because I've seen videos of of missiles flying, I think it was over Qatar, I might be wrong, that came from the wrong direction, apparently as as well, attacking some of these gas. >> You know, um, Israel started the war and Israel has the, you know, Israel cannot fight Iran. they have every incentive to try to um drag everybody else into their war. You know, obviously the United States, but you know, they would like to uh get uh UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, uh Azerban, Turkey, uh the Kurds, everybody uh to unite and fight their war against Iran for them. So, you know, if they can if they can uh stage false flag attacks and say, "Oh, look, these the Iranians attacked you now. You must, you know, you see how horrible they are. They're always going to be a danger to you. Why don't you join our war?" >> So, there's there's an obvious incentives for the Israelis to do that. Uh, and Iranians said they didn't uh launch any missiles at Diego Garcia. And then the Russians and the Chinese said, you know, their, you know, their uh surveillance didn't record any missiles going from Iran to Diego Garcia. And then also I think it's also clear to the Pentagon because had they done so the missiles would have flown over two um air aircraft carrier strike groups which would have seen them you know which would have um caught them with their with their radars. >> So it's it's quite it's quite probable that it's it's a false flag. >> Yeah. Incited here even in in Western media or German media as well. was like, "Oh Iran can reach Berlin now." >> Yes. Right. So, >> yeah. Yeah. So, we we obviously we all have to unite and go to war, obviously. >> Yeah, pretty much. That's sort of the essence of that, of course. Um maybe zooming out like really good to have your the framing of all of this here, but you just mentioned Russia and China. Um I know it's a very complex topic and we could talk for hours about this, Alex, but what is China's and what is Russia's role in all of this? Just trying to keep it simple because I think there's a bigger picture maybe to be discussed as well in regard to China especially. Well, uh let's say that uh Iran has been designated by China and and by Russia as the anchor of the regional security for Western Asia or the Middle East and Iran is also the key um part of the Belt and Road uh initiative. Uh Iran is also the the key trade route for uh Russia because you know Russia to get around the the Suez trade route have been developing the international north south uh trade corridor uh which is you know it goes from the Indian Ocean into the Persian Gulf and then up north north across Iran to the Caspian Sea and then across the Caspian Sea to uh northwestern Russia to St. Petersburg and from there it can go to Western Europe and everywhere else and that route is very important because it's considerably cheaper and considerably uh quicker than going the the route of Suez Canal and it also makes it so that Russia cannot be blocked by uh you know people who control the Suez Canal and so this is very very important to them and so if Iran fell into the hands of a pro-western government, then you know they can start to become a a a destabilizing force for Russia. You know, they can they can start to antagonize Russia. Uh they can get together. You know, Azerban is their right- uh leaning against Russia's soft underbelly. And so, you know, if Iranians supported uh Azerban together, they could they could become a new flash crisis flashoint for Russia. You know, as as as we running out of the last Ukrainian, uh the West uh is going to need another uh way to uh another beach head to uh draw Russia into another quagmire. And so Iran could serve that purpose if it fell into a to you know if if they installed some Vladimir Zalinski in Thran. And so uh this is why uh defending Iran is also existential for Russia but it's also existential for China because the Chinese understand that the day Russia falls it's their turn. So if if western powers and I'm not not talking necessarily about Washington DC this is above governments you know this is this is a higher power than people we we vote for. uh if these people manage to uh d take over Iran and then continue to weaken and destabilize Russia and then one day topple the government in Russia and install their own puppet like Zilinski in Moscow then they would use Russia uh to destroy China in the same way that they have been using Ukraine to destroy Russia. So both for Russia and for China, defending uh Iran is not going to be negotiable. You know, there's not there's not like that Trump can offer them some deal. Oh, look, you're going to make a couple of billion dollars. Why don't you why don't you help us topple these people? So, you know, that's going to that's going to remain a hard commitment. Alex, maybe uh it's also a big question of course, but has the conflict in Iran and maybe Venezuela to a degree as well reshuffled the cards for the US in conversation with with China? Have they managed to do that perhaps? >> Well, I don't know. You know, Trump has reportedly uh postponed his trip to China, which was which was due in in the next two weeks, I think. And uh maybe the Chinese told him, you know, we need to postpone this meeting. We don't know. Trump Trump said he postponed it because obviously, you know, he can't say, uh yeah, Xiinping canled our meeting. Uh but let's let's suppose that Trump really did postpone the meeting himself. He might have done it because having having gotten uh entangled in this Iran conflict, he would be going with a with let's say lesser negotiating position than had he scored a quick victory in Iran, you know, because with a quick victory in Iran, he would have a massive ace up his sleeve. Now he's he would be there as a as a you know as a supplicant because um he would have to be asking the Chinese to pull his coals out out of the fire in in the in the Persian Gulf. So maybe that's why he postponed it. But you know on the other hand while China might be cool they do have a lot of intertwined interests. So, uh, China doesn't want to destroy their relationship with the United States, even if they have differences, uh, and major differences with, uh, with with the Trump administration. On the other hand, the Russians clearly do not want to antagonize Trump even though uh you can you can hear from uh the official dome in the Kremlin that they're not delighted with him starting this war against Iran and that you know that they are now not sure to what extent they can trust Trump. They can rely on him. They can they can negotiate with him. They can expect him to abide by any commitment. But uh I think that Russia's philosophy has been um well formulated by Sergey Caranov who who used to be one of you know Vladimir Putin's adviser and he said that uh Russia sees their uh task now to help the United States transition from the global hegemon to a to a normal major power with the least disruption possible. So, I think that they will continue to try to have good relations with the United States and that they will continue to um to do this to try to kind of tame the imperial impulses coming out of the United States. But it's it's a it's a it's a it's a tough challenge and it's not going to happen overnight. especially from the commodity side, they hold still quite a few cards. Um, giving having access to oil and gas of course in in an abundance of course here. So, um, they they haven't, you know, they still have cards to play is my point. Russia has, right? Um, Alex, if we were to speak in a week from now, not six months, but in a week from now, what are we going to talk about? Are we going to talk about a resolution here >> of the Iran Iran conflict? >> I very much doubt it. I very much doubt it, Kai. uh you know the Iranians have communicated their conditions uh to end the war and I don't think it's even remotely close to what the Trump administration could accept. uh Trump administration have formulated their own demands and the gap is is like light years because essentially the Iranians are asking the United States to um capitulate and withdraw from the region. Basically uh the United States is demanding that Iran capitulate and agree to all terms which are you know probably unacceptable to a sovereign nation. And so Iran is not going to stop. I don't think that the Iranians are going to stop and they will continue to uh probably pound Israel. And now, you know, Israel has painted themselves into like a narrative corner because they're pretending that they are not getting pounded. Uh that, you know, they're only sustaining light damage from Iranian attacks. you know, they have they have this very heavy-handed censorship where you're not allowed to show Iranian missiles dropping uh in Israel and you're not allowed to show the damage from these strikes. Instead, you can, you know, the journalists can show some damage to um civilian uh you know, infrastructure to residential buildings. Uh if you watch if you watch the reports they will show some smallalish holes in the ground you know where something fell there and and made a little crater. uh some beat up cars or a car on fire and then they will say, "Oh yeah, so many people uh sustained injury. Two of them uh you know, serious injuries, but you know, they're trying to pretend like we got this. You know, this is this is fine. We're absolutely defending ourselves." And so they cannot they they now are really closed in that like in that Montipython black knight, you know, when uh >> it's nothing but a scratch >> arm cut off and the leg cut off and the other leg cut off and all this. But he has to say like, "Oh, it's nothing, you know. I I let's fight on." >> But the flesh wound. >> Yeah, it's just a flesh wound. Yeah, absolutely. Alex, we we could chat for hours. There's still so much to talk about um on a on a global basis. We haven't even talked about the European aspect of it all. Not sure if it even is an aspect these days, but uh um the role of NATO at least um for now is still a topic of conversation of course, but we'll have to do a part two at some point. Uh really maybe in a week or so we'll we'll catch up again, see where things stand and maybe things have played out well. Let's we can all hope that this is finds somewhat >> good resolution, right? Um in in the meantime though, Alex, where can our audience follow more of your work? >> Well, uh I'm active on X. My handle is naked hedgy. Uh I have uh two publications on Substack. One of them is a daily trend following market report called I System Trend Following and I also have a personal um publication called Alex Craner Substack. And then yes, uh you reminded me I also have a YouTube channel which where I post maybe uh two videos a month or or something like that. >> No, fantastic, Alex. Really really appreciate it. Can't wait to do this again soon. So insightful. Like there's there's so many moving parts. It's really difficult to make sense of it. Like and I've used the term fog of war. I think it perfectly applies to what we're seeing on either side um of the conflict here. Um there's so much going on. We don't even know if the Supreme Leader is alive. Just a side fact. Um because we haven't seen him in what is it now? Three weeks, four weeks. So, >> uh for all we know and what I've read, he's somewhere in Russia getting uh treated apparently. So, >> that's one of the stories, but I think if he turns up in a video with six fingers, I would I would start to get worried. >> Exactly. Exactly. Absolutely. Alex, thank you so much. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in to Soore Financially. We're we're trying to make sense of what is happening on the globe. We discussed the macro to understand the micro. Micro for us, of course, gold, silver, silver, and mining stocks. Why are the stocks moving in the way they are? We haven't talked much about gold in this conversation at all, but it's just really to understand what is happening on a geopolitical scale. If you enjoyed this conversation though, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us bring Alex back onto the program. Also, the likes show us that you enjoyed this conversation. Please. Thank you. So, thank you so much for the support. Don't let emotions run your investment for you. Take care.
Trump blinked: Is Peace Now On The Table In The Middle East? | Alex Krainer
Summary
Transcript
I mean, imagine having A10 Warthogs and F-35s and having to subdue an enemy the size of Europe. >> Like, what where are you going to go with that? What? You're going to you're going to make some scratches. You're going to poke some holes. But if you had a thousand F-35s, you would not be able to to win from the air. And then to go with boots on the ground, I I don't know how many troops you would you would need, but you would probably need a million or more. And that doesn't work either. >> President Trump just said markets and just everybody into a tail spin here. uh he just posted that he's postponing attacks on Iranian infrastructure or energy infrastructure by at least 5 days based on really positive and constructive conversations he's had with the Iranian government about potential ending or a potential end of all hostilities towards Iran. Well, the market has reacted. Futures has turn have turned green. Gold rallied almost $300. Oil is down 5% and more as we record this on March 23rd at 1:12 p.m. And uh I've invited a fantastic guest ahead of this tweet by the way u to have a discussion about what is happening on a geopolitical side and this is perfect timing. We should be recording this live Alex but uh his his name is Alex Kina. He's he's naked hedgy over on X. He's also accomplished Substack author and he just relaunched his YouTube channel again this year. So really excited for that development. But before I switch over to my guest, hit hit like and subscribe on our YouTube channel and we really appreciate it. Now, Alex, it's great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Thank you for the invite, Kai. Always a pleasure to join you and warm greetings to everyone out there. >> Yeah, Alex, we have lots to talk about. 30 minutes to do so. Let's jump right in. Just about an hour and now 8 minutes ago, we got this post on Truth Social from President Trump. And I'll just quickly read it. I'm pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and the tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a 5-day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Alex, besides the spelling mistakes, what is your takeaway from this tweet and what does it really mean? >> Uh well uh first of all uh uh this is a very positive development because you know uh uh 5 days pause uh might create an opening to resolve the conflict without further destruction and bloodshed. But beyond this, you know, uh to me it means that Trump blinked because, you know, he was he was playing chicken with the Iranians. And you know, the problem is that the Iranians uh didn't start this conflict and to them this conflict is ex existential. It's this is no this is no joke. This is no poker game. This is absolutely existential for them. They can't move their country elsewhere. uh their country is surrounded by hostile military bases and hostile proxy regimes and uh they've been attacked. So uh there's clearly a a readiness and determination to fight to the bitter end which means you know they the logic of conflict is that they they to them this is no game of chicken to them this is do or die. So if Trump escalates, they have they can't um how do you say capitulate? They have to escalate tit for tat. >> And so they said, you know, when he said um well, you know, Trump's rhetoric has been changing practically on an hourly basis. You know, on the 20th of March, he says, "Oh, what do we care about gate of Hormuz?" You know, uh the Straight of Hormuz, it doesn't affect us. Hardly any of our cargos go through there. It's this is Europe and China so they can they can fix it. And then 24 hours later less he says uh I'm giving Iran 24 hour 48 hours to open the straight of Hormuz or else I'm going to blow up all their electricity infrastructure. And then the Iranians come back and they say like, well, if you strike our electricity infrastructure, we're going to destroy all the energy and desalination and electricity infrastructure of all the uh of the of the region because, you know, they all practically serve US military bases among other among other things. And then he tweets, oh, you know, don't do this because if you do, then I'm going to have to escalate. Which, you know, he didn't mention nuclear weapons, but he pretty much implied that he would be uh going the the the nuclear way. and uh Iranians didn't blink, >> you know. >> Uh and so he had to he had to um take take a big step back because he realized that they can't and they won't. And so if intimidation didn't work, then he has to uh find a face- saving way out. And I guess a face saving way out is to pretend that there's negotiations going on, which apparently there aren't, or at least the Iranians are not saying. I mean, I I I saw an interview with an Iranian official last night and he was saying there's no room for diplomacy anymore because Trump has been very deceitful and he stabbed us in the back. Basically, that's what he said. So, what's the point in negotiating if he will not abide by any commitment that he makes? Can can I jump in real quick, Alex, because we got a bit of a statement here from from Tasnam, Iranian news agency as well, which is being uh, you know, debated now whether it's factual and who who the sources, of course, because there no names are being mentioned, but um, this is from Bloomberg. Now, Iran's semi-official TASM news agency is now also reporting Iran is not in talks and there have been no talks with Trump and they call it psychological warfare. Um, so it's it's a bit of a like fog of war. who do we believe here and what is true, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Correct. But you know, also uh uh we have to keep in mind that I Iranians have been preparing for this conflict for more than two decades. And uh I I believe that part of those preparations are to continue fighting even in the case that the central government in Thran falls. You know, even if they manage somehow to overtake government buildings and government structures and bring their sha uh to uh to Thran and declared that there's a new government, the IRGC is not going to stop fighting. They're not going to take orders from this central government. So it would be a a situation like in Afghanistan where you know the the the United States managed to take down the government in Kabo. Uh they thought they uh could pacify and tame the country but 20 years later they had to give the country back to the Taliban to the same Taliban that they thought that they had defeated. And I think that um you know I don't know if the Taliban planned it that way but I think that the Iranians are planning it that way. And this is why uh they have divided their military uh uh command and control structure into 21 dis districts that are practically autonomous and that they would that that will only take orders from the supreme leader. And so uh a supreme leader is the one instance that will not uh presumably capitulate to the Americans. And so no other you know even even if you manage to regime change tan you wouldn't get control of Iran. They their their armed forces would continue to fight. You gain nothing from it. >> Yeah. I think I mentioned it in an other interview, but it's ideological versus economic warfare. Perhaps ideological is they don't really care. Meaning Iran, what happens to infrastructure? That's why you said they didn't blink at all cuz for for them it actually is like do or die. It's it's about survival. So they don't really care about the economic impact, I would assume. Um while the US has economic limits, I would I would say and it's not just purely ideological. It's not a religious war we're fighting here as far as I know. Right. Yeah, correct. You know, the United States has all kinds of limitations. You know, there's a there's a conviction limitation, there's morale limitation, there's logistics limitation. Uh there's uh thousands of miles of logistical chain that chains that have to feed the war effort. Iran doesn't have any of those problems and they don't have the conviction problem and they don't have the morale problem. And so uh you know if if the United States was not able to subdue the Taliban in Afghanistan after 20 years of trying, if they were not able to subdue uh Ansarala in Yemen, the Houthis uh uh after 10 years of trying you know uh first with through uh Saudis using Saudis as a proxy and then they themselves you know in March in March of uh 20 no in December of 2023 they launched the operation uh prosperity guardian and they were going to defeat uh the Houthis and keep the the Red Sea open for maritime traffic and they failed and then you know Trump Trump came to the White House and then last March a year ago they launched the operation Rough Rider and then Trump was tweeting uh we're bombing them like nobody's ever seen before you know it was all this rah rah rah look how tough we are we are, you know, they were they were boasting with this big military machinery, the greatest military ever in the world. You know, it is the greatest military in the world, but it's also spread thin all across the world with some 800 military bases everywhere. And so, you know, they cannot bring the whole thing to bear on one enemy. And and if they do, it's it's a massive nightmare of a of a of a logistics operation. And then they they are not as powerful as they were 30 years ago. And their enemies are a lot more powerful, a lot bolder, and a lot more uh self-confident than they were 30 years ago because they've seen what happened in Afghanistan and they've seen what happened in the Red Sea with the Houthis. And then you know Iran is far far more powerful than than Yemen and then Afghanistan. And then the size of the country, my god, you know, like it's it's like Western Europe. >> It's 92 million people plus you, you know, people are, oh, you know, F-35s. Oh, A10 warog warthogs. Uh, we're going to we're going to, I mean, imagine having A10 warthogs and F-35s and having to subdue an enemy the size of Europe. >> Like, what where are you going to go with that? What? You're going to you're going to make some scratches? you're going to poke some holes, but if you had a thousand F-35s, you would not be able to to win from the air. And then to go with boots on the ground, I I don't know how many troops you would you would need, but you would probably need a million or more. And that doesn't work either because all that would need to be supported by very very robust logistics operations. You know, you need to feed the troop, you need to water them, they need fuel, spare parts, all kinds of everything. And they need rest. You need to you need to rotate them, you know. And where's Iran? It's a bit far from where you are. It's well, you know, this is why uh Iran has been in the crosshairs of the empire. Sorry about that. Iran has been in the crosshairs of the empire. He'll he'll be punished afterwards. Uh since for for many many years, you know, it was you know that speech that General Wesley Clark gave about an a Pentagon official telling him, "We're going to do seven countries in five years." That was in 2001. So Iran was due for a regime change within 2006. We are now 20 years past due, past due date for Iran regime change. Do you know why? Because nobody so far dared because the intelligence community, you know, community, the intelligence complex in the United States was telling their presidents, we can't do this. we can't be sure that we will win. This could get out of control. Uh it's it's best not to. So, no president so far has dared to attack Iran. It's not because they don't want to is because they never dared until Donald Trump. And uh there we are. You know, uh we we now see the consequences of the fact that wars are very very easy to start. they're extremely difficult to uh conclude and hold under control. >> So So how do you see this play out now, Alex? Like what's the what's the the most likely scenario? Not the optimal scenario, but the most likely scenario here. >> I I I think Kai, that the most likely scenario is not the easiest way out for anybody. But I think that, you know, we have to take into account that Iran has been harassed by Western colonial powers for 120 years now, more than 120 years now. It's been wars, invasions, uh proxy wars, sabotage, regime change wars, uh terrorism, you know, uh MEK, the the the the Iranian dissident terrorist group has been abundantly funded by Western intelligence agencies, uh CIA, MI6 Mossad to to conduct terror attacks and sabotage in in Iran. uh sanctions, maximum pressure sanctions uh stringing stringing along the regime uh with neverending negotiations that almost as soon as the paper dry the ink dries on on the piece of paper the western power already powers already uh renegade on all their commitments. So, it's not going anywhere. And meanwhile, Iran is surrounded by hostile military bases. And Israel there is for forever forever committed to going to war against Iran and dragging the collective west along with them. So, this is like a democ sword over over Iranians heads. And I think that now that they've been attacked, I think they will not allow the status quo to go back. And what I mean by this is I believe that they will seek to evict the United States and other Western powers from the region entirely. And I wouldn't exclude the possibility that they will uh seek to end Iran, Israel as it is constituted today. Is that even like a possibility? Like does Iran even have the possibilities to do that? It seems like attacks have slowed down even on neighboring countries which we also need to talk about. Meaning like Saudi Arabia, United Emirates, uh Qatar. Um is that even still possible? Yes. Like I I get where you're coming from, but does Iran still have that strength perhaps? Um that's very hard to say you know but uh Iran has been cultivating this axis of resistance in the region. Um this force has not disappeared. You know uh Hezbollah is back in action. >> Hamas has not been defeated. Uh the Yemenes apparently uh just announced I think over the weekend that they are joining the war against the United States on the side of Iran. Uh you have large populations in many of these countries like Saudi Arabia, uh Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, um Jordan, Syria that are restless. uh Syrian you know when Bashar al-Assad's regime fell uh Syrian Arab army didn't disappear uh parts of it uh whole tank tank divisions went over to Iran and uh they are still somewhere they didn't vaporize uh parts of it went to Lebanon so it's very very difficult to uh predict what might happen but you Israel is not going to stop attacking Lebanon, bombing Syria. Um probably they, you know, Trump may tell them to stop bombing um Iran, but they might not. So I I don't see that the region suddenly falls to peace, you know, that that that suddenly everybody buries their their hatchet and uh they agree to some kind of a peace deal. Israel is the obstacle to that. And so so long as Israel is at war, uh the United States is on the hook and the Iranians see their national security as as under threat and jeopardize. So I don't think that they will stop. Uh whether they have strength or not, we we will find out in time. But you know um former former Russian defense minister Sergey Shyu just uh posted something I think on X the other day where they said that Iranians still have weapons that we have not even seen yet that are he said this is what he said. Iranians have arsenals of weapons that can destroy not only Israel but the whole of the Middle East. They haven't used them yet and we haven't seen them yet. And so he said, "We strongly advise all parties to immediately stop uh hostilities." This may have influenced uh Trump's blinking, you know, because uh Americans and Russians are still in context. They they are still um communicating with one another and it may be that the Russians told Trump, "Look, uh this could end horribly badly. You have to stop." >> Well, we've seen Iran apparently attack uh the the US base in the Indian Ocean there, 4,000 kilometers away. I've just been reading some some facts about that. It might have been an Israeli submarine that fired at it as well. Um, like again, fog of war, right? Like what do the Iranians really have and who is really shooting these days? Because I've seen videos of of missiles flying, I think it was over Qatar, I might be wrong, that came from the wrong direction, apparently as as well, attacking some of these gas. >> You know, um, Israel started the war and Israel has the, you know, Israel cannot fight Iran. they have every incentive to try to um drag everybody else into their war. You know, obviously the United States, but you know, they would like to uh get uh UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, uh Azerban, Turkey, uh the Kurds, everybody uh to unite and fight their war against Iran for them. So, you know, if they can if they can uh stage false flag attacks and say, "Oh, look, these the Iranians attacked you now. You must, you know, you see how horrible they are. They're always going to be a danger to you. Why don't you join our war?" >> So, there's there's an obvious incentives for the Israelis to do that. Uh, and Iranians said they didn't uh launch any missiles at Diego Garcia. And then the Russians and the Chinese said, you know, their, you know, their uh surveillance didn't record any missiles going from Iran to Diego Garcia. And then also I think it's also clear to the Pentagon because had they done so the missiles would have flown over two um air aircraft carrier strike groups which would have seen them you know which would have um caught them with their with their radars. >> So it's it's quite it's quite probable that it's it's a false flag. >> Yeah. Incited here even in in Western media or German media as well. was like, "Oh Iran can reach Berlin now." >> Yes. Right. So, >> yeah. Yeah. So, we we obviously we all have to unite and go to war, obviously. >> Yeah, pretty much. That's sort of the essence of that, of course. Um maybe zooming out like really good to have your the framing of all of this here, but you just mentioned Russia and China. Um I know it's a very complex topic and we could talk for hours about this, Alex, but what is China's and what is Russia's role in all of this? Just trying to keep it simple because I think there's a bigger picture maybe to be discussed as well in regard to China especially. Well, uh let's say that uh Iran has been designated by China and and by Russia as the anchor of the regional security for Western Asia or the Middle East and Iran is also the key um part of the Belt and Road uh initiative. Uh Iran is also the the key trade route for uh Russia because you know Russia to get around the the Suez trade route have been developing the international north south uh trade corridor uh which is you know it goes from the Indian Ocean into the Persian Gulf and then up north north across Iran to the Caspian Sea and then across the Caspian Sea to uh northwestern Russia to St. Petersburg and from there it can go to Western Europe and everywhere else and that route is very important because it's considerably cheaper and considerably uh quicker than going the the route of Suez Canal and it also makes it so that Russia cannot be blocked by uh you know people who control the Suez Canal and so this is very very important to them and so if Iran fell into the hands of a pro-western government, then you know they can start to become a a a destabilizing force for Russia. You know, they can they can start to antagonize Russia. Uh they can get together. You know, Azerban is their right- uh leaning against Russia's soft underbelly. And so, you know, if Iranians supported uh Azerban together, they could they could become a new flash crisis flashoint for Russia. You know, as as as we running out of the last Ukrainian, uh the West uh is going to need another uh way to uh another beach head to uh draw Russia into another quagmire. And so Iran could serve that purpose if it fell into a to you know if if they installed some Vladimir Zalinski in Thran. And so uh this is why uh defending Iran is also existential for Russia but it's also existential for China because the Chinese understand that the day Russia falls it's their turn. So if if western powers and I'm not not talking necessarily about Washington DC this is above governments you know this is this is a higher power than people we we vote for. uh if these people manage to uh d take over Iran and then continue to weaken and destabilize Russia and then one day topple the government in Russia and install their own puppet like Zilinski in Moscow then they would use Russia uh to destroy China in the same way that they have been using Ukraine to destroy Russia. So both for Russia and for China, defending uh Iran is not going to be negotiable. You know, there's not there's not like that Trump can offer them some deal. Oh, look, you're going to make a couple of billion dollars. Why don't you why don't you help us topple these people? So, you know, that's going to that's going to remain a hard commitment. Alex, maybe uh it's also a big question of course, but has the conflict in Iran and maybe Venezuela to a degree as well reshuffled the cards for the US in conversation with with China? Have they managed to do that perhaps? >> Well, I don't know. You know, Trump has reportedly uh postponed his trip to China, which was which was due in in the next two weeks, I think. And uh maybe the Chinese told him, you know, we need to postpone this meeting. We don't know. Trump Trump said he postponed it because obviously, you know, he can't say, uh yeah, Xiinping canled our meeting. Uh but let's let's suppose that Trump really did postpone the meeting himself. He might have done it because having having gotten uh entangled in this Iran conflict, he would be going with a with let's say lesser negotiating position than had he scored a quick victory in Iran, you know, because with a quick victory in Iran, he would have a massive ace up his sleeve. Now he's he would be there as a as a you know as a supplicant because um he would have to be asking the Chinese to pull his coals out out of the fire in in the in the Persian Gulf. So maybe that's why he postponed it. But you know on the other hand while China might be cool they do have a lot of intertwined interests. So, uh, China doesn't want to destroy their relationship with the United States, even if they have differences, uh, and major differences with, uh, with with the Trump administration. On the other hand, the Russians clearly do not want to antagonize Trump even though uh you can you can hear from uh the official dome in the Kremlin that they're not delighted with him starting this war against Iran and that you know that they are now not sure to what extent they can trust Trump. They can rely on him. They can they can negotiate with him. They can expect him to abide by any commitment. But uh I think that Russia's philosophy has been um well formulated by Sergey Caranov who who used to be one of you know Vladimir Putin's adviser and he said that uh Russia sees their uh task now to help the United States transition from the global hegemon to a to a normal major power with the least disruption possible. So, I think that they will continue to try to have good relations with the United States and that they will continue to um to do this to try to kind of tame the imperial impulses coming out of the United States. But it's it's a it's a it's a it's a tough challenge and it's not going to happen overnight. especially from the commodity side, they hold still quite a few cards. Um, giving having access to oil and gas of course in in an abundance of course here. So, um, they they haven't, you know, they still have cards to play is my point. Russia has, right? Um, Alex, if we were to speak in a week from now, not six months, but in a week from now, what are we going to talk about? Are we going to talk about a resolution here >> of the Iran Iran conflict? >> I very much doubt it. I very much doubt it, Kai. uh you know the Iranians have communicated their conditions uh to end the war and I don't think it's even remotely close to what the Trump administration could accept. uh Trump administration have formulated their own demands and the gap is is like light years because essentially the Iranians are asking the United States to um capitulate and withdraw from the region. Basically uh the United States is demanding that Iran capitulate and agree to all terms which are you know probably unacceptable to a sovereign nation. And so Iran is not going to stop. I don't think that the Iranians are going to stop and they will continue to uh probably pound Israel. And now, you know, Israel has painted themselves into like a narrative corner because they're pretending that they are not getting pounded. Uh that, you know, they're only sustaining light damage from Iranian attacks. you know, they have they have this very heavy-handed censorship where you're not allowed to show Iranian missiles dropping uh in Israel and you're not allowed to show the damage from these strikes. Instead, you can, you know, the journalists can show some damage to um civilian uh you know, infrastructure to residential buildings. Uh if you watch if you watch the reports they will show some smallalish holes in the ground you know where something fell there and and made a little crater. uh some beat up cars or a car on fire and then they will say, "Oh yeah, so many people uh sustained injury. Two of them uh you know, serious injuries, but you know, they're trying to pretend like we got this. You know, this is this is fine. We're absolutely defending ourselves." And so they cannot they they now are really closed in that like in that Montipython black knight, you know, when uh >> it's nothing but a scratch >> arm cut off and the leg cut off and the other leg cut off and all this. But he has to say like, "Oh, it's nothing, you know. I I let's fight on." >> But the flesh wound. >> Yeah, it's just a flesh wound. Yeah, absolutely. Alex, we we could chat for hours. There's still so much to talk about um on a on a global basis. We haven't even talked about the European aspect of it all. Not sure if it even is an aspect these days, but uh um the role of NATO at least um for now is still a topic of conversation of course, but we'll have to do a part two at some point. Uh really maybe in a week or so we'll we'll catch up again, see where things stand and maybe things have played out well. Let's we can all hope that this is finds somewhat >> good resolution, right? Um in in the meantime though, Alex, where can our audience follow more of your work? >> Well, uh I'm active on X. My handle is naked hedgy. Uh I have uh two publications on Substack. One of them is a daily trend following market report called I System Trend Following and I also have a personal um publication called Alex Craner Substack. And then yes, uh you reminded me I also have a YouTube channel which where I post maybe uh two videos a month or or something like that. >> No, fantastic, Alex. Really really appreciate it. Can't wait to do this again soon. So insightful. Like there's there's so many moving parts. It's really difficult to make sense of it. Like and I've used the term fog of war. I think it perfectly applies to what we're seeing on either side um of the conflict here. Um there's so much going on. We don't even know if the Supreme Leader is alive. Just a side fact. Um because we haven't seen him in what is it now? Three weeks, four weeks. So, >> uh for all we know and what I've read, he's somewhere in Russia getting uh treated apparently. So, >> that's one of the stories, but I think if he turns up in a video with six fingers, I would I would start to get worried. >> Exactly. Exactly. Absolutely. Alex, thank you so much. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in to Soore Financially. We're we're trying to make sense of what is happening on the globe. We discussed the macro to understand the micro. Micro for us, of course, gold, silver, silver, and mining stocks. Why are the stocks moving in the way they are? We haven't talked much about gold in this conversation at all, but it's just really to understand what is happening on a geopolitical scale. If you enjoyed this conversation though, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us bring Alex back onto the program. Also, the likes show us that you enjoyed this conversation. Please. Thank you. So, thank you so much for the support. Don't let emotions run your investment for you. Take care.