Is Gold’s Selloff Over? Biggest Shift Since 2008, Massive Inflation Ahead | Florian Grummes
Summary
Commodities Outperformance: The guest expects commodities to outperform equities over a multi-year cycle, citing long-term S&P GSCI vs S&P 500 trends.
Oil Bull Market: Despite short-term relief from potential de-escalation, structural supply damage in the Middle East supports a bullish oil outlook with potential new highs ahead.
Gold Bull Market: Gold remains in a bull market despite a sharp correction; the strategy is to buy dips, with central bank demand and future money printing as key drivers.
Safe-Haven Nuance: Gold’s recent selloff is attributed to liquidity stress rather than broken fundamentals, echoing 2008 dynamics where gold fell initially but led the recovery.
Crypto Winter: Bitcoin is viewed as still in a crypto winter with risk of another leg down, though short-term rallies are possible due to capital flight and positioning.
Stagflation Risk: Rising commodity prices are seen as inflationary, increasing costs and potentially pushing Western economies toward recession, urging caution and liquidity.
Market Risks: Geopolitical uncertainty, private equity/private debt stress, and liquidity shocks could pressure risk assets broadly.
No Specific Tickers: No individual public tickers were pitched; the focus was on sectors and themes across Energy, Materials (gold/miners), and Bitcoin.
Transcript
I think um your job is to buy the dip dip. I wouldn't freak out if it has not acted as a safe haven in a in a war city >> because everything went down. This is not the end of the bull market unless we're going to World War II and uh it's a total nightmare in everything, right? My experience and this is now the fourth crypto winter I'm in uh is you want to be at the sidelines. You don't want to second guess. This always takes longer and it usually always ends with a total um uh panic selloff at the end of a crypto winter. We haven't seen that yet. >> Stock markets and risk assets are rebounding today. The S&P 500 is up about 50 basis points. The NASDAQ is up 1%. Bitcoin is up nearly 1.5% back now to $17,000 a coin. And gold is taking the bid as well, up to $4,500 an ounce. So, what's next? Well, what's happening today right now is Iran has supposedly received a 15-point plan from the Americans from the Trump administration to end the war. President Trump claims that uh they are in negotiations right now. Iran earlier this week has refuted any such claims that they're in talks and denied any such events. Uh but the markets seem to believe Trump and we're getting a bit. So is this the end of the gold um slump and the end of the oil rally? We'll find out. Florian Gomez joins us today. He is the managing director of Mindest Touch Consulting. Welcome back to the show, Florian. Good to see you, >> David. Good to see you. Thanks for having me. >> Well, it seems like things are slightly deescalating. Trump has supposedly pushed a ceasefire plan, 15-point plan to end the war, report says. Um, this came in just this morning. So, uh, nobody knows what's going to happen next, and nobody knows if this report has actually been, uh, uh, been received by the Iranians, and they're going to, uh, actually take this into account and start negotiations. Iran has supposedly received it, uh, but nobody really knows. So, Florian, uh, how are you reading the current situation right now? Markets seem to believe what's going on. Uh, is this the beginning of the end of the war? >> Yeah, hopefully. But uh let me start with this. It is very very difficult uh to really assess what is true, what is wrong, what is fake, what is made up, what is a narrative from from one or the other side. People have to be very careful. Now you basically have to research and investigate any news from three, four, five different perspective perspectives to make sure that it's actually accurate and true. Uh so that's uh really one one downside or sad part of this nasty war. Um which I don't support by the way. Um and that it's been come very difficult to to figure out what to believe and and and what not to believe. Um so you mentioned now this this news. Uh my information right now is that that Iran has denied that Trump is in in negotiations with them and that there any talks. So maybe he's making it up. I don't know with whom he's been speaking. I mean, we should not forget that they basically killed all the leadership. I think there is probably some form of a power vacuum in in Iran or at least it's it's unclear who really has the authority to speak for the whole country and who has enough power over the military apparatus as well as over the the the the conservative hardcore religious part of the country. I mean this is very complex uh things and and I mean the news flow is is is rather uh small here. I mean the internet is turned off in in Iran for three and a half weeks already. It's very difficult to get verified news out of Iran. So um I don't know with whom they are actually talking. Um again one of the official spokespersons from Iran denied it. We have to see how this is going forward. I think it will be very difficult to come to a to a re agreement and a peace deal here. Although Trump is forced to do something because the the consequences out of his attack on Iran are are devastated and we've seen it in the markets. We are seeing it now. Oil shortages all over the world. Yes. >> And if this continues, we all are screwed. >> This is probably a little bit more significant to the uh energy markets and broad markets overall. Non-hostile vessels. This is according to the uh Iranian mission to the UN um posted uh yesterday. Non-hostile vessels including those belonging to and or associated with other states may provided uh may provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety safety regulations benefit from safe passage through the street of Hormuz in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities. Interesting. Let's see how this actually plays out. But uh this announcement seems to have eased oil markets somewhat. WTI is now at 89. And of course we know that this impacts uh Europe and Asia more than uh North America. So um expecting Asian markets to actually respond posit positively to this as well if this were actually carried out. Uh what's your interpretation on how this may impact energy markets? If the street of Hormuz reopens to certain vessels, uh will that be enough to reverse market action that we've seen in the last couple weeks? >> I mean, we have seen somehow a relief in the last two days here. Um actually, you you could make the case that there is some relief developing already since that crazy spike to 120 weeks ago. But, um make no mistake here. I mean there is there has been done a lot of damage to many oil and gas facilities in the whole Middle East. It's not only Iran, it's uh Bahin, it's Qatar, it's Kuwait, it's the Saudis and also of course the the United Emirates. >> And this will take time. So I read today or yesterday that just rebuilding the the facilities in Qatar which is an main player in the LG gas market >> will take three to five years. Um, so we are probably seeing some form of relief right now in in the oil market, but I think down the road >> the the real consequences in terms of physical supply and demand will just show up more and more over time and I think oil market is extremely well supported here and we will probably see new uh highs in the oil market down the road at some point. That's my expectation. Maybe not in the immediate immediate term unless Mr. Trump tweets something again and then markets go the other way, the other direction. Um, but uh in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going >> You have a chart that uh I'd like you to show us, please. It shows us the uh long-term cycle of of oil versus the S&P 500. I wonder if oil was on the verge of a breakout anyway, even if this war never happened. >> Can you just comment on the outlook here? my speeches. >> So, uh maybe to to start with and going back to your initial post here. I mean, I found this cartoon here really funny. Uh I'm not sure with whom Mr. Trump has been speaking over the last two days. I mean, he killed the leader. Don't forget this is a the most important religious leader for the Shia people. And basically, he sacrificed himself. Uh I'm I'm not a follower of that religion for sure not. But um you need to understand that all those 90 million people in Iran uh are basically more united than before the war. Um and uh it's it's unclear there is a power vacuum. And so I found this very very uh uh uh significant this this cartoon here. But coming back to to uh that chart uh this is the commodity uh basket the S&P GSCI total return index against the S&P 500 which is one of the most important or the most important stock market index reflecting or representing the 500 most important companies in America. And you can see that this chart goes back to 1971. And um you can see that stocks against commodities are moving in long-term cycles usually lasting at least a few years usually at least a decade sometimes even two decades. So that's not a short-term one week one one month kind of thing. And uh the last significant change in that ratio here was the great financial crisis in 2008. uh and since then basically stocks have outperformed commodities overall and um this uh commodity basket is heavily energy and oil uh uh weighted and I'm very much sure that this Iran war now is the trigger to basically skip or kick this ratio now in the other direction and going forward I think commodities will outperform uh stocks uh over the next probably 5 years at least. So >> what is the relationship between uh that chart? So when commodities have historically outperformed stocks, what is the relationship between that and inflation? >> Yeah, of course. I mean rising commodity prices is always inflationary. So for example, if you go back, this is probably the most similar kind of event here in the early '7s. uh the oil crisis back then you can see this sharp rise here of commodities against the stocks and and and that that was very inflationary. So one of the takeaways in my big picture macro analysis is that we're going to see the next leg up in inflation which will hurt us all at the grocery uh uh cashier basically that means cost for the normal life is going up whether you like it or not. that means your insurance bill will go up. Of course, gas at the gas station is already up. Um, and we know that oil is in so many other products and is part of so many products and logistics are so important and they all need oil to bring and move stuff around. So uh I think that's pretty much a logical assumption that inflation will be moving higher and at the same time um just look at the pictures coming out of India, out of Bangladesh, out of Thailand, out of all these Asian countries now people cannot move with their cars anymore because they're out of gasoline. So um uh going forward I think the the risk is here really that also the western world is moving into a recession or even a depression if we are not already there because as you know the last few years we've seen quite a quite a bit of an artificial growth. I've been always coming back to that crackup boom theory where we said that uh this this boom or apparent boom is mainly driven by money printing and not by real economic activity. And as you know, for example, the art the AI companies have been trading in a circle for months >> and showing huge growth, but in the end of the day, they were just basically lending each other money and then spending it. And it's been quite a questionable kind of thing. And um so going forward, I think if you bring this two together, it means stackflation. Yeah. Which is not a nice scenario for the normal human being, but still uh of course as an investor, you can make money in these markets. 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Uh but either way, let's talk about gold and Bitcoin. Uh starting with gold first. My first observation, and allow me to share my screen for just a minute before we go back to yours, Florian. Uh my first observation is gold has not been performing like a safe haven assets safe haven asset for the last couple of years. And this is more evident uh now than ever. Uh gold is rising and and falling alongside stocks. And every time we have uh an escalation in the conflict, gold goes down. And today, for example, when there seems to have been news around deescalation, such as Iran possibly letting certain vessels through the street of Hormuz, a partial reopening, shall we say, or a 15-point peace plan proposed to ran by the Trump administration. Well, that news has boosted markets, stock markets, and gold at the same time. If gold were a safe haven asset, in theory it should be doing the exact opposite. Uh but it is not. But that's just my observation. I'll let you comment on what gold is responding to uh currently and then we can take it from there and talk about what's next. >> Yeah. All right. So I think it's very important to differentiate here. uh we have to understand uh in which condition gold went into that war situation that suddenly showed up three and a half four weeks ago. Right? >> So this is a a chart going back to uh the autumn of 2022 >> uh when all markets came back down. Uh that was a difficult year for all markets. Everything went down together if you remember well. Bitcoin had massive problems in that year. Yes, it was a turnaround in interest rates. Stock market came down and gold actually held held up better than everything else but also came down and it made this triple low down here at 1615. Then it went a while sideways. This is the uh invasion, the Hamas invasion into Israel in October 2023. And then uh half a year later, the breakout happened in gold in February 2024. And since then gold went up massively. And my uh claim or my theory is that basically gold started to price in all this disaster in in the Middle East since October 2023 because we have seen this rally which basically took gold up 250% in in in less than 2 years. Um and this is the condition that basically gold came into that war situation. Um, so it's been very overbought. As you can see up here, we had a big um, uh, reversal here. That was end of January, early February, gold went down $1,200 in just two days. That's been seen and unheard of. Uh, then it came back up and then on the day of the start of the war, we made this one lower high and then this massive sell-off. We have seen this multiple times in the past that uh in in situations where the whole market suddenly freaks out and is in panic mode and liquidity disappears everything goes down. So uh I think uh this is something you have to understand and gold came into that war uh being very overbought um and and already probably in a in in a correction that had just started. So uh that's why it probably was so severe that pullback. But uh if we zoom out, I mean you can see this in this chart here. We are still in a clear uptrend uh in and your job in a bull market is to buy the dip. So I bought on Monday morning uh with both hands physical metals and if gold should continue to move further down which is still possible here I will buy more. Um, so safe haven, yes or no? I mean, I can tell you and that was my biggest learning experience as an investor and trader and speculator in 2008. I thought being fully invested in precious metals, mining stocks and and everything met metals related, uh I would be well positioned for a stock market crash and then I had to learn the hard and painful lesson that uh when liquidity disappears, everything goes down and and on the day that Burr Sterns went bankrupt uh in March 2008, gold topped out at 138. It had priced in this whole problem in the financial uh market and the real estate markets for quite a while. Once the news came out, it topped out and then it it went down 33% in the following 6 months. And I thought I would be well protected against the stock market crash while it was actually the opposite. Gold got annihilated and the mining stocks as well. But uh also gold bottomed out first when when the Fed back then announced the massive money printing programs. gold bottomed out first and was already back at $1,000 the following February when when the stock markets finally found their bottom. So this is kind of a blueprint maybe that we can also use this time. Uh uh so going forward I think I mean who's going to pay for that war? Where's the money coming from? America is already broke. They will have to print much more money uh going forward and that will benefit gold. Um we are currently in a correction, a healthy correction. It's a pullback finally a pullback in in a strong bull market. I think um your job is to buy the dip dip. I wouldn't freak out if it has not acted as a safe haven in a in a war city because everything went down. >> Um so I think um that that's that was to be expected. I was very careful actually. I published a lot of very cautious riskoff statements the last four weeks already. We've been risk off already since uh late January, early February. We took took profits in in all our mining stocks, everything. Um that's been my recommendations to all my followers for the last nearly two months already. Um so I didn't foresee that war, but uh this run up here in gold, right? the metals were ahead of themselves and and we are now seeing this healthy correction triggered of course now by this war event where suddenly liquidity disappeared and we can of course talk a lot about who might have had to sell their gold in the last few days and weeks just one little example that people might not think about uh just 3 days after the first rocket hit Dubai and I was in Dubai we managed to get out uh two weeks after the first drone uh got shot down um but immediate emission uh uh immediately 3 days later the first news came out uh that uh people because Dubai is one of the the gold hubs 20 to 30% of the global gold trade the physical gold trade goes through Dubai much of the gold is coming of course through Africa but also from other countries in Switzerland as well because Dubai has a lot of refineries and from there the gold goes often then towards India and China um and and all these gold trades are often handled by intermediate ies who basically make a little commission um and they work with security and credit instruments given by banks but within their their little trading plan so to speak they don't have like storage for 2 3 weeks in Dubai so once the airport got closed and there was no more planes moving these people suddenly were stuck with big gold positions that they needed to store and insure in Dubai and that freaked them out they needed to get rid of it because they couldn't pay for that so You've seen people selling their gold $50 below spot immediately 3 days after the first drone got shut down. And that was something I I I mean nobody would have thought of this before because I mean Dubai is one of the largest best managed airports in the world and nobody would have thought that this airport is going to be shut down for a while. So um these are things that are suddenly happening and this is just one little explanation that I can offer for people to understand that there is many factors playing in this big international gold market. Um of course other uh countries might be forced at some point to sell their gold for oil if they run out of dollars. China probably one of the reasons why they have accumulated so much gold over the years is that they were well aware that there will be a point in the future where they can buy gold oil that they need only with gold. Um, so that's also part of the the the story here and and the gold market is always very much forward-looking and um I think there's lots of things coming together and in a liquidity crisis many uh fund managers, many hedge fund managers, many uh uh uh fast traders have to sell their gold positions which is then most of the case uh yeah derivative positions or ETF positions and and that's why you've seen this this this crazy selloff in Um >> well what is the uh sentiment and positioning in gold right now telling you? Uh the fact that we've already sold off uh gold has already sold off from its top by the order of 20%. Um one of two ways to interpret it. beginning of the end of the bull market because this is exactly the pattern that we saw in 2011 and to some extent 1980 uh when gold double topped fell and then continued falling or if the conditions are right for another you know leg up higher for gold then this may present an opportunity uh how do you see it >> yeah so I I think this is not the end of the bull market unless we are going to world war II and uh it's a total nightmare in everything Right. But if there is some normality coming back uh and markets continue to function uh and international trade more or less continues, you will see massive money printing. You will see all the uh the central banks continue to buy, you will see tether continue to buy and this is all over the longer run driving gold much higher. I think this war now actually has even uh put more drivers into that bull market but in the the short to midterm I would be a little bit cautious. So we're looking here at a sentiment chart for gold meaning how is the the feeling the mood of the investors right and you can see that over the last basically one and a half two years most of the time it has been very optimistic we had this extreme greed and fear kind of situations then you had a cold shower and then again the market rallied continued higher typical bull market behavior now we broke below those last lows here so the gold market has not been as depressed as it is right now for the last yeah one and a half two years and the question now is usually the pendulum when it comes to the mood of the investors is always from one extreme to the other meaning from extreme greed and and and euphoria to extreme panic and fear right and the last time we had fear was down here in October 2022 that's the chart I showed you before where we had this triple low so you can make a case that maybe gold needs to come down here and really calm calm down, cool off that overheated sentiment, get rid of all the weak hands in that market and then we'll be ready for the next leg up. That would also support that this this war will continue and will take more time. So that that is one thought that I have currently that could be a possibility because this pattern obviously has been now uh destroyed or or goal has been basic leaving that kind of typical sentiment behavior of the last one and a half years. So something else is happening right now and if the pendalum really wants to swing now to the other extreme meaning fear and panic yeah there is still some way to go. Um and going back to the the gold chart here that was the triple low down here. So I wouldn't be surprised if gold actually would want to come back down here maybe below yeah maybe below $4,000 at some point. maybe testing this whole uh uh support that the the top from last year April 3,500 that would probably be my worst case if it comes down here but this will take some time this is not happening within one or two days you have here on the weekly chart with which is a little bit of more of a big picture kind of approach two times confirmed uh sell uh stoastic signal here so I'm waiting for an oversold weekly chart that would be a good setup to to really uh go back in in that bull market. Um, if you zoom in further uh and and we're looking at a at a daily chart here, you can see that uh this was the the top here in January. Um and and then we had this first flush $1,200 in two days. Gold came back up nicely and then here that was basically the start of the war and it heavily sold off and it tested that 200 day moving average on Monday morning. Slightly missed it by maybe $20 or something. But uh for me that is not enough. Typically what you now get is a trading in between those two moving averages. The blue one is the 50-day, the red one is the 200 day moving average. Something here in between and probably at least another test of the 200 day moving average. But good news in the short term, we have a fresh buy signal. I think gold now is on the way back to probably the 50-day moving average, maybe slightly above 5,000. And then we have to see how this war plays out. Um, I'm a little bit cautious. I don't think it's the time to be fully aggressively invested in that sector again. And by that I mean loading up completely on the mining stocks. But there has been some of those uh names that I really like. They have been decimated over the last two three weeks. Some of those stocks came down 50 60%. So nibbling here and there is already a good idea. But I wouldn't be too aggressive. Just still make sure you have enough liquidity on the sidelines because this can also move into a 2008 kind of scenario here where the whole market goes down. I think you have probably had someone on your show recently talking about the the whole private debt private equity situation in in America which is a totally different story and also looming and could create a lot of stress in the markets. So I I can just recommend even though we have high inflation and loss of purchasing power, keep some liquidity on the sidelines for the next few weeks and months. Not with the goal to stay in cash for the next 5 years, but for at least a few months. This will always gives you the option to to move back in if there's new opportunities. >> Okay. I like to spend the last couple of minutes talking about Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin has totally not moved in lock step with the NASDAQ, which was a narrative in 2021, 2022. uh is as you can see uh ever since basically October uh they are not related at all but I will notice that uh I will observe and show you that Bitcoin has moved closer in lock step with the dollar. Uh this is interesting. U maybe you can help us explain why uh perhaps uh the DXY um on the whole have has seemed to moved more broadly with Bitcoin uh than Bitcoin moving with the NASDAQ for example. Um my theory is that Bitcoin has been uh held by more treasury companies and seen as an actual reserve asset. Now uh when people need to liquidate uh US dollars, they liquidate dollar denominated assets such as bitcoin if they were to buy bitcoin denominated in dollars in the first place and then the vice and vice versa buying bitcoins with dollars if uh demand for dollars goes up. Basically bitcoin is now being seen as a dollar proxy. That's what the chart looks like to me. But uh I'll get you to explain uh what Bitcoin is responding to. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, you know, where when we met the first time, I think six years ago or something, I was very bullish and very enthusiastic about Bitcoin still. But that's right. >> As we also know that has changed a little bit over the last few years. Um in my assessment and again similar to with gold, we have to differentiate and and Bitcoin came into that war situation completely oversold. quite the opposite of what gold actually had had been doing before the war started. So, uh, Bitcoin topped out here in, uh, October last year. We had divergences all over the place. Um, and and it basically came down from 126,000 to slightly below 60,000. Uh, it it underperformed any other asset class over the last few months. It was a total disappointment for many. To me it was clear that we are in a crypto winter since last October. My experience and this is now the fourth crypto winter I'm in. Uh is you want to be at the sidelines. You don't want to second guess. This always takes longer and it usually always ends with a total um uh panic sell off at the end of a crypto winter. We haven't seen that yet. Um but uh I will also say that it's true Bitcoin here has not sold off like like the stock market and and not sold off like gold over the last uh few weeks. Instead it's basically moving sideways and it's basically the same what it did here uh in in November December. So we had the first leg down sideways next leg down another sideways. My assumption is at some point we will have another leg down but I might be wrong. I I'm cooking with water. I have no Chrysler ball here. This little uh pop up here uh that we have seen over the last two weeks in Bitcoin. Um uh this one here uh apparently uh again going back to Dubai uh lots of experts, lots of families, lots of crypto bros have left the city and um as people might know or not know, uh Dubai is a very cash heavy city still. So, if you for example would rent uh an apartment with a a short-term rental company for 3 4 months, uh you can pay the bill in cash bank notes if you want. Totally normal. They will send you an Indian guy and he picks up your 10, 20, 30, $50,000 in cash. Totally normal. Nobody will ask questions. And that means uh there is a lot of cash still circulating in that city. I I don't want to say anything good or bad about it. It's just what it is. If you are an expat and you're sitting with 50 or $100,000 in cash in Dubai for whatever reason and you need to leave because you don't trust this whole geopolitical situation anymore, you you you you're not taking that in a back uh and travel with that to London. So you need to get rid of that. And we have immediately again just a few days after the first drone, we've seen USDC demand going through the roof in Dubai. And then uh as as all these uh intermediaries went uh didn't had enough USDC, people also started buying Bitcoin as a way to move their money out of the city. And and that is one of the advantages clearly people have been talking about this for years. This is one of the advantages that Bitcoin and crypto have against gold, right? I mean you can on a stick on a ledger or just with the the the phrase in your head you can move money very quickly. Um of course this is I assume once or twice in a lifetime scenario. So it's not like Michael Sailor wants to tell you every week you have to move 5 millions from one end of the planet to the other. That's either a luxury problem or a problem for a big company but not for a normal average guy. Um but that that that was one of the driver and that I think was responsible for this little uh blip up here. We have seen something similar in the Ukraine war at the beginning. Um but uh I don't want to talk too badly here about Bitcoin because the chart doesn't look bad. I mean you can see this has been very oversold here and this is the weekly chart. There would be a lot of room actually to the upside going back to the last crypto winter. That's what we have seen in 2022 into 2023 when then finally things changed. So it could be that Bitcoin just moves sideways here for quite a while. Could it rally up to 80,000, maybe even to 90,000? Yeah, why not? Possible. Uh if we look here on the daily chart, you can see that this is still trading quite quite a way below the the 200 day moving average up here, the red one. So even rallying back up to 90,000 would not change the bigger picture for Bitcoin. But there is there is some chance for for a rally here in Bitcoin. >> The Bitcoin outlook here. Are you are you more bullish on Bitcoin right now or gold? >> I think um I'm more bullish on gold in the short term. Um I still want to see this. I'm I'm not believing that we have seen the end of the crypto winter. I know that this can still get very hairy I would say very very challenging. Um if there is more stress in the American stock market at some point due to all this uh private equity private uh debt uh situation in the funds which by the way is exactly the same thing that we have seen in the months and maybe one year before the the breakout of the financial crisis in 2000. >> That's right. So people need to take this serious and we need to look very very sharp on this on this corner which is often neglected. Um if that is the case and stock market really gets into trouble I think bitcoin will not be able to to do its own thing and it and it will come hard uh down with with the stock market together. While in gold I believe uh any pullback towards 3,500 or below 4,000 will be bought by many central banks. There's a lot of physical demand still. So, uh, gold is in a bull market. You have to buy a dip. Bitcoin is still unclear right now. The bigger picture is still we are in a crypto winter. Once this turns around, that's a different thing. But I have no indication yet that this crypto winter is over. That's why I I'm I'm more bullish on on gold going forward. >> All right. Uh, excellent, Florian. I appreciate your insights. Thank you for your much needed update on the markets. Where can we find you for more updates? Well, uh people can go to my website midestouchmininess consulting.com. Uh they can subscribe to my free subst. I send out daily charts on gold and silver. Uh we also have a telegram channel uh with lots of people from over all over the world sharing informations, charts all related to precious metals, commodities, mining stocks and also crypto. Um Midas Touch Consulting on Telegram. >> We'll put the links down below. So uh make sure to follow Midas Touch Consulting there. Thank you so much Florian. Good to see you again and uh we'll see you again soon. >> You're welcome. Thanks for having me. All the best for you and the viewers. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe,
Is Gold’s Selloff Over? Biggest Shift Since 2008, Massive Inflation Ahead | Florian Grummes
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I think um your job is to buy the dip dip. I wouldn't freak out if it has not acted as a safe haven in a in a war city >> because everything went down. This is not the end of the bull market unless we're going to World War II and uh it's a total nightmare in everything, right? My experience and this is now the fourth crypto winter I'm in uh is you want to be at the sidelines. You don't want to second guess. This always takes longer and it usually always ends with a total um uh panic selloff at the end of a crypto winter. We haven't seen that yet. >> Stock markets and risk assets are rebounding today. The S&P 500 is up about 50 basis points. The NASDAQ is up 1%. Bitcoin is up nearly 1.5% back now to $17,000 a coin. And gold is taking the bid as well, up to $4,500 an ounce. So, what's next? Well, what's happening today right now is Iran has supposedly received a 15-point plan from the Americans from the Trump administration to end the war. President Trump claims that uh they are in negotiations right now. Iran earlier this week has refuted any such claims that they're in talks and denied any such events. Uh but the markets seem to believe Trump and we're getting a bit. So is this the end of the gold um slump and the end of the oil rally? We'll find out. Florian Gomez joins us today. He is the managing director of Mindest Touch Consulting. Welcome back to the show, Florian. Good to see you, >> David. Good to see you. Thanks for having me. >> Well, it seems like things are slightly deescalating. Trump has supposedly pushed a ceasefire plan, 15-point plan to end the war, report says. Um, this came in just this morning. So, uh, nobody knows what's going to happen next, and nobody knows if this report has actually been, uh, uh, been received by the Iranians, and they're going to, uh, actually take this into account and start negotiations. Iran has supposedly received it, uh, but nobody really knows. So, Florian, uh, how are you reading the current situation right now? Markets seem to believe what's going on. Uh, is this the beginning of the end of the war? >> Yeah, hopefully. But uh let me start with this. It is very very difficult uh to really assess what is true, what is wrong, what is fake, what is made up, what is a narrative from from one or the other side. People have to be very careful. Now you basically have to research and investigate any news from three, four, five different perspective perspectives to make sure that it's actually accurate and true. Uh so that's uh really one one downside or sad part of this nasty war. Um which I don't support by the way. Um and that it's been come very difficult to to figure out what to believe and and and what not to believe. Um so you mentioned now this this news. Uh my information right now is that that Iran has denied that Trump is in in negotiations with them and that there any talks. So maybe he's making it up. I don't know with whom he's been speaking. I mean, we should not forget that they basically killed all the leadership. I think there is probably some form of a power vacuum in in Iran or at least it's it's unclear who really has the authority to speak for the whole country and who has enough power over the military apparatus as well as over the the the the conservative hardcore religious part of the country. I mean this is very complex uh things and and I mean the news flow is is is rather uh small here. I mean the internet is turned off in in Iran for three and a half weeks already. It's very difficult to get verified news out of Iran. So um I don't know with whom they are actually talking. Um again one of the official spokespersons from Iran denied it. We have to see how this is going forward. I think it will be very difficult to come to a to a re agreement and a peace deal here. Although Trump is forced to do something because the the consequences out of his attack on Iran are are devastated and we've seen it in the markets. We are seeing it now. Oil shortages all over the world. Yes. >> And if this continues, we all are screwed. >> This is probably a little bit more significant to the uh energy markets and broad markets overall. Non-hostile vessels. This is according to the uh Iranian mission to the UN um posted uh yesterday. Non-hostile vessels including those belonging to and or associated with other states may provided uh may provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety safety regulations benefit from safe passage through the street of Hormuz in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities. Interesting. Let's see how this actually plays out. But uh this announcement seems to have eased oil markets somewhat. WTI is now at 89. And of course we know that this impacts uh Europe and Asia more than uh North America. So um expecting Asian markets to actually respond posit positively to this as well if this were actually carried out. Uh what's your interpretation on how this may impact energy markets? If the street of Hormuz reopens to certain vessels, uh will that be enough to reverse market action that we've seen in the last couple weeks? >> I mean, we have seen somehow a relief in the last two days here. Um actually, you you could make the case that there is some relief developing already since that crazy spike to 120 weeks ago. But, um make no mistake here. I mean there is there has been done a lot of damage to many oil and gas facilities in the whole Middle East. It's not only Iran, it's uh Bahin, it's Qatar, it's Kuwait, it's the Saudis and also of course the the United Emirates. >> And this will take time. So I read today or yesterday that just rebuilding the the facilities in Qatar which is an main player in the LG gas market >> will take three to five years. Um, so we are probably seeing some form of relief right now in in the oil market, but I think down the road >> the the real consequences in terms of physical supply and demand will just show up more and more over time and I think oil market is extremely well supported here and we will probably see new uh highs in the oil market down the road at some point. That's my expectation. Maybe not in the immediate immediate term unless Mr. Trump tweets something again and then markets go the other way, the other direction. Um, but uh in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going >> You have a chart that uh I'd like you to show us, please. It shows us the uh long-term cycle of of oil versus the S&P 500. I wonder if oil was on the verge of a breakout anyway, even if this war never happened. >> Can you just comment on the outlook here? my speeches. >> So, uh maybe to to start with and going back to your initial post here. I mean, I found this cartoon here really funny. Uh I'm not sure with whom Mr. Trump has been speaking over the last two days. I mean, he killed the leader. Don't forget this is a the most important religious leader for the Shia people. And basically, he sacrificed himself. Uh I'm I'm not a follower of that religion for sure not. But um you need to understand that all those 90 million people in Iran uh are basically more united than before the war. Um and uh it's it's unclear there is a power vacuum. And so I found this very very uh uh uh significant this this cartoon here. But coming back to to uh that chart uh this is the commodity uh basket the S&P GSCI total return index against the S&P 500 which is one of the most important or the most important stock market index reflecting or representing the 500 most important companies in America. And you can see that this chart goes back to 1971. And um you can see that stocks against commodities are moving in long-term cycles usually lasting at least a few years usually at least a decade sometimes even two decades. So that's not a short-term one week one one month kind of thing. And uh the last significant change in that ratio here was the great financial crisis in 2008. uh and since then basically stocks have outperformed commodities overall and um this uh commodity basket is heavily energy and oil uh uh weighted and I'm very much sure that this Iran war now is the trigger to basically skip or kick this ratio now in the other direction and going forward I think commodities will outperform uh stocks uh over the next probably 5 years at least. So >> what is the relationship between uh that chart? So when commodities have historically outperformed stocks, what is the relationship between that and inflation? >> Yeah, of course. I mean rising commodity prices is always inflationary. So for example, if you go back, this is probably the most similar kind of event here in the early '7s. uh the oil crisis back then you can see this sharp rise here of commodities against the stocks and and and that that was very inflationary. So one of the takeaways in my big picture macro analysis is that we're going to see the next leg up in inflation which will hurt us all at the grocery uh uh cashier basically that means cost for the normal life is going up whether you like it or not. that means your insurance bill will go up. Of course, gas at the gas station is already up. Um, and we know that oil is in so many other products and is part of so many products and logistics are so important and they all need oil to bring and move stuff around. So uh I think that's pretty much a logical assumption that inflation will be moving higher and at the same time um just look at the pictures coming out of India, out of Bangladesh, out of Thailand, out of all these Asian countries now people cannot move with their cars anymore because they're out of gasoline. So um uh going forward I think the the risk is here really that also the western world is moving into a recession or even a depression if we are not already there because as you know the last few years we've seen quite a quite a bit of an artificial growth. I've been always coming back to that crackup boom theory where we said that uh this this boom or apparent boom is mainly driven by money printing and not by real economic activity. And as you know, for example, the art the AI companies have been trading in a circle for months >> and showing huge growth, but in the end of the day, they were just basically lending each other money and then spending it. And it's been quite a questionable kind of thing. And um so going forward, I think if you bring this two together, it means stackflation. Yeah. Which is not a nice scenario for the normal human being, but still uh of course as an investor, you can make money in these markets. 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Uh but either way, let's talk about gold and Bitcoin. Uh starting with gold first. My first observation, and allow me to share my screen for just a minute before we go back to yours, Florian. Uh my first observation is gold has not been performing like a safe haven assets safe haven asset for the last couple of years. And this is more evident uh now than ever. Uh gold is rising and and falling alongside stocks. And every time we have uh an escalation in the conflict, gold goes down. And today, for example, when there seems to have been news around deescalation, such as Iran possibly letting certain vessels through the street of Hormuz, a partial reopening, shall we say, or a 15-point peace plan proposed to ran by the Trump administration. Well, that news has boosted markets, stock markets, and gold at the same time. If gold were a safe haven asset, in theory it should be doing the exact opposite. Uh but it is not. But that's just my observation. I'll let you comment on what gold is responding to uh currently and then we can take it from there and talk about what's next. >> Yeah. All right. So I think it's very important to differentiate here. uh we have to understand uh in which condition gold went into that war situation that suddenly showed up three and a half four weeks ago. Right? >> So this is a a chart going back to uh the autumn of 2022 >> uh when all markets came back down. Uh that was a difficult year for all markets. Everything went down together if you remember well. Bitcoin had massive problems in that year. Yes, it was a turnaround in interest rates. Stock market came down and gold actually held held up better than everything else but also came down and it made this triple low down here at 1615. Then it went a while sideways. This is the uh invasion, the Hamas invasion into Israel in October 2023. And then uh half a year later, the breakout happened in gold in February 2024. And since then gold went up massively. And my uh claim or my theory is that basically gold started to price in all this disaster in in the Middle East since October 2023 because we have seen this rally which basically took gold up 250% in in in less than 2 years. Um and this is the condition that basically gold came into that war situation. Um, so it's been very overbought. As you can see up here, we had a big um, uh, reversal here. That was end of January, early February, gold went down $1,200 in just two days. That's been seen and unheard of. Uh, then it came back up and then on the day of the start of the war, we made this one lower high and then this massive sell-off. We have seen this multiple times in the past that uh in in situations where the whole market suddenly freaks out and is in panic mode and liquidity disappears everything goes down. So uh I think uh this is something you have to understand and gold came into that war uh being very overbought um and and already probably in a in in a correction that had just started. So uh that's why it probably was so severe that pullback. But uh if we zoom out, I mean you can see this in this chart here. We are still in a clear uptrend uh in and your job in a bull market is to buy the dip. So I bought on Monday morning uh with both hands physical metals and if gold should continue to move further down which is still possible here I will buy more. Um, so safe haven, yes or no? I mean, I can tell you and that was my biggest learning experience as an investor and trader and speculator in 2008. I thought being fully invested in precious metals, mining stocks and and everything met metals related, uh I would be well positioned for a stock market crash and then I had to learn the hard and painful lesson that uh when liquidity disappears, everything goes down and and on the day that Burr Sterns went bankrupt uh in March 2008, gold topped out at 138. It had priced in this whole problem in the financial uh market and the real estate markets for quite a while. Once the news came out, it topped out and then it it went down 33% in the following 6 months. And I thought I would be well protected against the stock market crash while it was actually the opposite. Gold got annihilated and the mining stocks as well. But uh also gold bottomed out first when when the Fed back then announced the massive money printing programs. gold bottomed out first and was already back at $1,000 the following February when when the stock markets finally found their bottom. So this is kind of a blueprint maybe that we can also use this time. Uh uh so going forward I think I mean who's going to pay for that war? Where's the money coming from? America is already broke. They will have to print much more money uh going forward and that will benefit gold. Um we are currently in a correction, a healthy correction. It's a pullback finally a pullback in in a strong bull market. I think um your job is to buy the dip dip. I wouldn't freak out if it has not acted as a safe haven in a in a war city because everything went down. >> Um so I think um that that's that was to be expected. I was very careful actually. I published a lot of very cautious riskoff statements the last four weeks already. We've been risk off already since uh late January, early February. We took took profits in in all our mining stocks, everything. Um that's been my recommendations to all my followers for the last nearly two months already. Um so I didn't foresee that war, but uh this run up here in gold, right? the metals were ahead of themselves and and we are now seeing this healthy correction triggered of course now by this war event where suddenly liquidity disappeared and we can of course talk a lot about who might have had to sell their gold in the last few days and weeks just one little example that people might not think about uh just 3 days after the first rocket hit Dubai and I was in Dubai we managed to get out uh two weeks after the first drone uh got shot down um but immediate emission uh uh immediately 3 days later the first news came out uh that uh people because Dubai is one of the the gold hubs 20 to 30% of the global gold trade the physical gold trade goes through Dubai much of the gold is coming of course through Africa but also from other countries in Switzerland as well because Dubai has a lot of refineries and from there the gold goes often then towards India and China um and and all these gold trades are often handled by intermediate ies who basically make a little commission um and they work with security and credit instruments given by banks but within their their little trading plan so to speak they don't have like storage for 2 3 weeks in Dubai so once the airport got closed and there was no more planes moving these people suddenly were stuck with big gold positions that they needed to store and insure in Dubai and that freaked them out they needed to get rid of it because they couldn't pay for that so You've seen people selling their gold $50 below spot immediately 3 days after the first drone got shut down. And that was something I I I mean nobody would have thought of this before because I mean Dubai is one of the largest best managed airports in the world and nobody would have thought that this airport is going to be shut down for a while. So um these are things that are suddenly happening and this is just one little explanation that I can offer for people to understand that there is many factors playing in this big international gold market. Um of course other uh countries might be forced at some point to sell their gold for oil if they run out of dollars. China probably one of the reasons why they have accumulated so much gold over the years is that they were well aware that there will be a point in the future where they can buy gold oil that they need only with gold. Um, so that's also part of the the the story here and and the gold market is always very much forward-looking and um I think there's lots of things coming together and in a liquidity crisis many uh fund managers, many hedge fund managers, many uh uh uh fast traders have to sell their gold positions which is then most of the case uh yeah derivative positions or ETF positions and and that's why you've seen this this this crazy selloff in Um >> well what is the uh sentiment and positioning in gold right now telling you? Uh the fact that we've already sold off uh gold has already sold off from its top by the order of 20%. Um one of two ways to interpret it. beginning of the end of the bull market because this is exactly the pattern that we saw in 2011 and to some extent 1980 uh when gold double topped fell and then continued falling or if the conditions are right for another you know leg up higher for gold then this may present an opportunity uh how do you see it >> yeah so I I think this is not the end of the bull market unless we are going to world war II and uh it's a total nightmare in everything Right. But if there is some normality coming back uh and markets continue to function uh and international trade more or less continues, you will see massive money printing. You will see all the uh the central banks continue to buy, you will see tether continue to buy and this is all over the longer run driving gold much higher. I think this war now actually has even uh put more drivers into that bull market but in the the short to midterm I would be a little bit cautious. So we're looking here at a sentiment chart for gold meaning how is the the feeling the mood of the investors right and you can see that over the last basically one and a half two years most of the time it has been very optimistic we had this extreme greed and fear kind of situations then you had a cold shower and then again the market rallied continued higher typical bull market behavior now we broke below those last lows here so the gold market has not been as depressed as it is right now for the last yeah one and a half two years and the question now is usually the pendulum when it comes to the mood of the investors is always from one extreme to the other meaning from extreme greed and and and euphoria to extreme panic and fear right and the last time we had fear was down here in October 2022 that's the chart I showed you before where we had this triple low so you can make a case that maybe gold needs to come down here and really calm calm down, cool off that overheated sentiment, get rid of all the weak hands in that market and then we'll be ready for the next leg up. That would also support that this this war will continue and will take more time. So that that is one thought that I have currently that could be a possibility because this pattern obviously has been now uh destroyed or or goal has been basic leaving that kind of typical sentiment behavior of the last one and a half years. So something else is happening right now and if the pendalum really wants to swing now to the other extreme meaning fear and panic yeah there is still some way to go. Um and going back to the the gold chart here that was the triple low down here. So I wouldn't be surprised if gold actually would want to come back down here maybe below yeah maybe below $4,000 at some point. maybe testing this whole uh uh support that the the top from last year April 3,500 that would probably be my worst case if it comes down here but this will take some time this is not happening within one or two days you have here on the weekly chart with which is a little bit of more of a big picture kind of approach two times confirmed uh sell uh stoastic signal here so I'm waiting for an oversold weekly chart that would be a good setup to to really uh go back in in that bull market. Um, if you zoom in further uh and and we're looking at a at a daily chart here, you can see that uh this was the the top here in January. Um and and then we had this first flush $1,200 in two days. Gold came back up nicely and then here that was basically the start of the war and it heavily sold off and it tested that 200 day moving average on Monday morning. Slightly missed it by maybe $20 or something. But uh for me that is not enough. Typically what you now get is a trading in between those two moving averages. The blue one is the 50-day, the red one is the 200 day moving average. Something here in between and probably at least another test of the 200 day moving average. But good news in the short term, we have a fresh buy signal. I think gold now is on the way back to probably the 50-day moving average, maybe slightly above 5,000. And then we have to see how this war plays out. Um, I'm a little bit cautious. I don't think it's the time to be fully aggressively invested in that sector again. And by that I mean loading up completely on the mining stocks. But there has been some of those uh names that I really like. They have been decimated over the last two three weeks. Some of those stocks came down 50 60%. So nibbling here and there is already a good idea. But I wouldn't be too aggressive. Just still make sure you have enough liquidity on the sidelines because this can also move into a 2008 kind of scenario here where the whole market goes down. I think you have probably had someone on your show recently talking about the the whole private debt private equity situation in in America which is a totally different story and also looming and could create a lot of stress in the markets. So I I can just recommend even though we have high inflation and loss of purchasing power, keep some liquidity on the sidelines for the next few weeks and months. Not with the goal to stay in cash for the next 5 years, but for at least a few months. This will always gives you the option to to move back in if there's new opportunities. >> Okay. I like to spend the last couple of minutes talking about Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin has totally not moved in lock step with the NASDAQ, which was a narrative in 2021, 2022. uh is as you can see uh ever since basically October uh they are not related at all but I will notice that uh I will observe and show you that Bitcoin has moved closer in lock step with the dollar. Uh this is interesting. U maybe you can help us explain why uh perhaps uh the DXY um on the whole have has seemed to moved more broadly with Bitcoin uh than Bitcoin moving with the NASDAQ for example. Um my theory is that Bitcoin has been uh held by more treasury companies and seen as an actual reserve asset. Now uh when people need to liquidate uh US dollars, they liquidate dollar denominated assets such as bitcoin if they were to buy bitcoin denominated in dollars in the first place and then the vice and vice versa buying bitcoins with dollars if uh demand for dollars goes up. Basically bitcoin is now being seen as a dollar proxy. That's what the chart looks like to me. But uh I'll get you to explain uh what Bitcoin is responding to. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, you know, where when we met the first time, I think six years ago or something, I was very bullish and very enthusiastic about Bitcoin still. But that's right. >> As we also know that has changed a little bit over the last few years. Um in my assessment and again similar to with gold, we have to differentiate and and Bitcoin came into that war situation completely oversold. quite the opposite of what gold actually had had been doing before the war started. So, uh, Bitcoin topped out here in, uh, October last year. We had divergences all over the place. Um, and and it basically came down from 126,000 to slightly below 60,000. Uh, it it underperformed any other asset class over the last few months. It was a total disappointment for many. To me it was clear that we are in a crypto winter since last October. My experience and this is now the fourth crypto winter I'm in. Uh is you want to be at the sidelines. You don't want to second guess. This always takes longer and it usually always ends with a total um uh panic sell off at the end of a crypto winter. We haven't seen that yet. Um but uh I will also say that it's true Bitcoin here has not sold off like like the stock market and and not sold off like gold over the last uh few weeks. Instead it's basically moving sideways and it's basically the same what it did here uh in in November December. So we had the first leg down sideways next leg down another sideways. My assumption is at some point we will have another leg down but I might be wrong. I I'm cooking with water. I have no Chrysler ball here. This little uh pop up here uh that we have seen over the last two weeks in Bitcoin. Um uh this one here uh apparently uh again going back to Dubai uh lots of experts, lots of families, lots of crypto bros have left the city and um as people might know or not know, uh Dubai is a very cash heavy city still. So, if you for example would rent uh an apartment with a a short-term rental company for 3 4 months, uh you can pay the bill in cash bank notes if you want. Totally normal. They will send you an Indian guy and he picks up your 10, 20, 30, $50,000 in cash. Totally normal. Nobody will ask questions. And that means uh there is a lot of cash still circulating in that city. I I don't want to say anything good or bad about it. It's just what it is. If you are an expat and you're sitting with 50 or $100,000 in cash in Dubai for whatever reason and you need to leave because you don't trust this whole geopolitical situation anymore, you you you you're not taking that in a back uh and travel with that to London. So you need to get rid of that. And we have immediately again just a few days after the first drone, we've seen USDC demand going through the roof in Dubai. And then uh as as all these uh intermediaries went uh didn't had enough USDC, people also started buying Bitcoin as a way to move their money out of the city. And and that is one of the advantages clearly people have been talking about this for years. This is one of the advantages that Bitcoin and crypto have against gold, right? I mean you can on a stick on a ledger or just with the the the phrase in your head you can move money very quickly. Um of course this is I assume once or twice in a lifetime scenario. So it's not like Michael Sailor wants to tell you every week you have to move 5 millions from one end of the planet to the other. That's either a luxury problem or a problem for a big company but not for a normal average guy. Um but that that that was one of the driver and that I think was responsible for this little uh blip up here. We have seen something similar in the Ukraine war at the beginning. Um but uh I don't want to talk too badly here about Bitcoin because the chart doesn't look bad. I mean you can see this has been very oversold here and this is the weekly chart. There would be a lot of room actually to the upside going back to the last crypto winter. That's what we have seen in 2022 into 2023 when then finally things changed. So it could be that Bitcoin just moves sideways here for quite a while. Could it rally up to 80,000, maybe even to 90,000? Yeah, why not? Possible. Uh if we look here on the daily chart, you can see that this is still trading quite quite a way below the the 200 day moving average up here, the red one. So even rallying back up to 90,000 would not change the bigger picture for Bitcoin. But there is there is some chance for for a rally here in Bitcoin. >> The Bitcoin outlook here. Are you are you more bullish on Bitcoin right now or gold? >> I think um I'm more bullish on gold in the short term. Um I still want to see this. I'm I'm not believing that we have seen the end of the crypto winter. I know that this can still get very hairy I would say very very challenging. Um if there is more stress in the American stock market at some point due to all this uh private equity private uh debt uh situation in the funds which by the way is exactly the same thing that we have seen in the months and maybe one year before the the breakout of the financial crisis in 2000. >> That's right. So people need to take this serious and we need to look very very sharp on this on this corner which is often neglected. Um if that is the case and stock market really gets into trouble I think bitcoin will not be able to to do its own thing and it and it will come hard uh down with with the stock market together. While in gold I believe uh any pullback towards 3,500 or below 4,000 will be bought by many central banks. There's a lot of physical demand still. So, uh, gold is in a bull market. You have to buy a dip. Bitcoin is still unclear right now. The bigger picture is still we are in a crypto winter. Once this turns around, that's a different thing. But I have no indication yet that this crypto winter is over. That's why I I'm I'm more bullish on on gold going forward. >> All right. Uh, excellent, Florian. I appreciate your insights. Thank you for your much needed update on the markets. Where can we find you for more updates? Well, uh people can go to my website midestouchmininess consulting.com. Uh they can subscribe to my free subst. I send out daily charts on gold and silver. Uh we also have a telegram channel uh with lots of people from over all over the world sharing informations, charts all related to precious metals, commodities, mining stocks and also crypto. Um Midas Touch Consulting on Telegram. >> We'll put the links down below. So uh make sure to follow Midas Touch Consulting there. Thank you so much Florian. Good to see you again and uh we'll see you again soon. >> You're welcome. Thanks for having me. All the best for you and the viewers. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe,