Gold To $10,000 As The Western World Faces Biggest Threat Ever | Lior Gantz
Summary
Energy Security: The Strait of Hormuz will remain a risk for months, but new pipeline routes to the Red Sea and potentially to Mediterranean ports aim to reduce chokepoint leverage and stabilize oil flows.
Infrastructure Shift: Building pump stations, drone defense, and bypassing Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could weaken Iran’s leverage and facilitate India–Europe trade routes, improving long-term supply resilience.
Precious Metals: Near-term pressure on gold and miners came from higher oil costs and profit-taking, but long-term drivers—de-dollarization and remonetization of silver (notably in India)—support materially higher prices.
De-dollarization: Countries seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar due to sanctions and asset freezes; China’s sophisticated financial system and yuan usage (e.g., Iran’s tolls) reinforce a structural bid for gold.
US-China Relations: A potential summit-driven deescalation on tariffs and tech controls (AI, chips, rare earths) alongside oil leverage could buoy risk assets in the near term.
US Housing: Anticipated policy moves (e.g., limiting institutional SFR buying, potential cap-gains relief) and lower rates aim to revive housing demand, benefiting housing-linked equities.
Consumer Spending: With ~$8T in money markets at ~4–4.5%, expected rate cuts could unlock flows into housing and discretionary spend (e.g., furniture), supporting a consumer-led upswing.
Stock-Specifics: No specific tickers were pitched; Blackstone was referenced only as an example in the context of single-family rental restrictions.
Transcript
The straits of Hermuz will continue to be a problem but their the importance of the straits is diminishing by the second. I think that a tariff dividend check is coming. >> How would you say um the markets are going to respond in the ne coming weeks? We're speaking on April 8th and this is the day after a ceasefire between Israel, Iran and the US have has been announced uh the night prior and now the straight of Hormuz is partially open and we have a situation where Brent crude has fallen 20% overnight. So how long will this stay open? How will the rest of the war progress and how will markets react to what's coming? We're going to talk about this and much more including markets and metals and mining stocks with Lear Gans, founder of Wealth Research Group. Welcome back to the show, Leor. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, too. >> Here are some of Iran's demands for uh permanent war. >> Yeah. Ending the war. Um among the list, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran, continued Iranian control, so basically sovereignty over the state of Hormuz, US military withdrawal from the Middle East, an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, the release of frozen Iranian assets, um and also not included on this particular list is uh rep war reparations. The US and Israel have to pay war reparations for the damages caused to Iranian infrastructure and personnel. Okay. Uh what is the point of this two-week war is my first question. Uh if >> two week ceasefire >> two week cease fire two week ceasefire that's what I meant to say. This two week ceasefire if the general consensus is that none of these demands are going to be met. >> Sure. and and um what we can do is look at uh previous uh ceasefires that happened during um the last uh two and a half to three years between President Trump and um and different organizations or countries or nation states etc in the Middle East. Um we always see that the points are very far away. Uh sometimes like in the case of uh Putin and and Zilinski, we see that the it doesn't come closer for months and months and months. Um so it's a question of of pressure and military leverage and and other points but it always starts very far and the Trump doctrine is to show that the American people and the world uh whether or not both sides uh were able to be flexible or not. And that's really um what this twoe period primarily is about in terms of um what's going to be shown to the public. uh es especially the American public which doesn't like um the war at all. Um it it does not it does not um it's not able to rally around the idea that um this is like uh Germany in 1935 and we have a chance to they don't see it this way that that this is like like a Germany 1935 and we have a four-year window before this becomes uh a real problem. So they they're not they're not making that connection. Perhaps it's it's the distance. Perhaps it's it's the the trauma from 20 years of nation building with Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps it's uh uh the adventures in in the jungles of Vietnam. Uh I'm I'm not sure exactly how to uh point this, but what I would tell you is that is something that President Trump is very attuned to, especially with midterms and especially with the stock market and rising oil prices. And there's another thing there is something called the AUMF, which is basically how he can invoke either a military operation and use military force or has to declare a war. uh in 1973 uh the Congress uh um enacted uh this this act and basically gives you 60 days of using military force without um uh a vote of Congress. Otherwise, you need to declare war and that uh takes both houses. So if you were uh President Trump and you needed uh more time, you either give it a a twoe ceasefire and then you can start a new operation and have new 60 days, which would be obviously very unpopular as well because everybody will see your your game or you'd need to show the American people in this period one of one of two things. Either one that uh Iran is a much bigger threat than we than we thought. that would uh in uh require the pro the Trump administration to show something very very threatening uh and to really uh rally the the uh the American public around it. I'm very uh doubtful that that this could be done. Um or uh there's a different plan um uh behind the scenes. I think that the ceasefire itself is very fragile. Um and and it it's and that's why Trump needed the ceasefire. uh the Iranians uh or the Iranian leadership uh needs the ceasefire because they're trying to understand exactly how to proceed from here um a after uh 36 days of of losing a lot of their military assets and and otherwise >> that what from the market perspective we just want to know well investors would like to know how long the straight of horm moves will remain open or closed and so here we have a scenario where the oil price WTI fell 20% last night still not back to its pre-war level. So, the market doesn't believe that the war is over, just that the ceasefire is happening. But actually, as of a couple hours ago, Iran closed the straight of Hormuz again because it was reported, this is Iranian state media is reporting that Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Um the Iranians said that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire and so the Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon uh which is ongoing broke this ceasefire and prime this is from CBC so there's a statement from Carney uh Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a joint statement uh with other world leaders that u the uh that basically he believes uh the ceasefire should include Lebanon. But Leo, let me just get your take on why this is happening currently uh and and and why the Israelis are pursuing um their own their own objectives here parallel to the ceasefire. >> Sure. um the the Iranian regime's um strategy towards um becoming the the biggest and mightiest uh force in the Middle East included the creation of uh proxies outside of their borders to um uh um make the war not on their terrain. That is that has been their main lesson after the 8 year war in 19 between them and the Iraqis between 1980 and 1988 which included muster gas and uh all sorts of atrocities. One of their biggest lessons was let's build proxies that uh distance uh wars from our uh terrain. Um, and one of their biggest ones are theah, and that's in southern Lebanon. And Lebanon is a very unique country because it it has a uh government that is not able to assert its sovereignty over the country um because of the um u being part of uh politics and also conquering their entire south of the country. So one of the key objectives of the ceasefire was to create this um distance between the two fronts and not to connect them. And what the Iranians are trying to do is of course connect those two fronts and say this is a bundle deal. So that's where really the the um the negotiations that you're seeing in real time are happening. Ultimately, how long how long do you think the straight of Hormuz will stay closed? Nobody knows for sure, but if you had to speculate based on current events and how things are progressing, how would you say um the markets are going to respond in the coming weeks? >> Um I think the straits of Hormuz are going to be a problem for months on end. The the reason I I say that is just so uh and also to give it some perspective. This does not mean a 100 or$150 or $200 oil at all. Um the the straits the straits of Hermuz are basically a choke point that the Iranians can use as leverage because the Qataris, the Emirate countries, uh Kuwait uh and the Saudis all use their side of the straight, the Persian, there's the Persian Gulf side and there's the Arabian uh side. And um basically they all have to go through this part that's a little narrower and that's the and there's an island there called Hermuz. That's the straits of Hermuz. What you want to do ideally and that is really the the the main point of uh the day after this this uh uh war is over in terms of uh oil, natural gas and everything that comes out of uh the ground in in that uh region is to do away with with the hormone rate. Make it less important than it was before. Take away that leverage from that regime. The way you do that is you turn, if you look at the map, you turn all the infrastructure away from the straits of Hermuz and towards the Red Sea. And if you can do that, you bypass two choke points uh that are very important and both have been used. One one is the the uh Hormuz Straits and two is the Bab and Mondev straits which the Houthis are projecting power over. If you do that and you get to the Red Sea, which the Saudis are already doing and uh I I assume the Emirates are going to do very shortly and other countries will will join them as well, then you are looking at the final choke point which is the Suez Canal. You can also bypass that if you create infrastructure that goes all the way to the ports of the Mediterranean from uh that Israel has and Lebanon has and Egypt has in the Sinai Peninsula. That uh will create a lot of safety that will weaken the ability of the Iranian regime to um uh hold the the world hostage over the streets of Hermuz. And it will do uh something amazing that and and that is basically the crown jewel. It will allow India to export to Europe via that exact uh infrastructure um uh route. Um basically the same route that uh those pipelines will go. There will be parallel uh train routes and and um uh and roads etc. And if India can export to Europe, connecting the two uh two of the biggest economic blocks in the world and going around uh these uh actors in the Middle East that have acted for a thousand for thousands of years as um as this toll booth in the middle then you can create uh amazing prosperity. Um that's what the United States want. what India wants and that's what a lot of the countries in this region uh want. So the answer is the straits of Hermuz will continue to be a problem but their the importance of the straits is diminishing by the second um and that really is the um the the chess uh game that that's being played here. >> I mean Saudi Arabia and and uh Gulf countries have their own pipelines to bypass this right there. Saudi Arabia, I read, is activating one of its pipelines built specifically for this purpose. >> It is trying it. It there is there is they already have the pipelines. They already have the port in uh Yamua um which is on on the Red Sea. Um the problem is it's they're still getting hit by drones and uh other things from um from Iran. So um and and some of the infrastructure is getting built uh right now. uh what's uh actually being discussed is also creating a lot of pump stations on the way. So if you hit any part of the pipe, you're not hitting the flow of the oil because it's getting pumped out, it's uh held like a in storage and then once fixed, it can continue. And I'm and I'm sure uh that uh once the the uh the all the infrastructure is in place, it's going to have drone protection and and everything else. really the um Iran if you look at it uh on a map it is the connecting bridge that China wanted to use for their belt and road initiative and what Russia wanted to use for their you can call belt and road initiative but it went basically north to south and through the caucus through the caucuses and then into Syria and projecting power into the Middle East the the Russian project is done because they've been Uh they're out of Syria and um uh Trump has brokered peace between Azerbaan and and Georgia, making it um and Armenia, I'm sorry. Um making the caucuses much safer and and basically killing uh this for um for Russia. China obviously much more formidable, much more sophisticated, much richer uh and everything else. It's not as simple. You you can check it. you can check their uh monopoly by introducing India to this equation and that is exactly what's uh um being discussed right now and and actually happening right now. How does this uh change or impact your outlook for precious metals and perceived safe haven assets if you think that the region in the future is probably going to be safer? That may be a bare case for gold longterm. However, what we've seen over the last four weeks is gold moving in lock step with stocks and other risk-on assets. So, either we think that gold is going to be a risk-on asset going forward. In other words, if this situation improves, we should buy gold or gold is going to default to its def, you know, to its standard risk off safe haven status, in which case you should short gold. What do you think? >> It's a great question. I the the reason that gold has uh um actually plummeted um during the war is because the price of oil risen dramatically which makes it uh much less uh profitable to mine gold. So you've seen mining stocks come down hard. That's because their costs are going up. Um and uh the price of gold and silver has come down because of a lot because of profit taken. uh gold and silver have been some of the best performers in the last two three years and uh a lot of uh uh big funds and institutional money and countries had to wound down a lot of their positions um during this uh during the last month and they've used gold and silver profits in order to do that um and fund many of the things that they've done. Look at Turkey in the last three weeks. Google Turkey selling gold and you can you can screen share this for your audience to see how much Turkey has uh had to sell their gold reserves in the last 30 days. It is insane. Um over the long term um uh the what uh drives the the price of gold forward is the fact that we are exiting the uh hyper globalized world where the dollar is this flawless medium of exchange between countries. That is no longer the case at all. uh countries can be either tariffed, sanctioned, uh their their assets can be frozen and these are not threats that other countries are willing to entertain. Uh and what we have to also acknowledge is that uh China is a much more formidable adversary to the United States than the Soviet Union was. their banking system is much more advanced, much more sophisticated and they can and they are creating ways around uh the dollar and they will be able to invite a lot of the countries that uh ideologically are closer to them uh to work with them on the yuan. So uh in the long term uh the gold is going a lot higher. gold is going above 10,000 an ounce. Um and and probably a lot higher than that. Um because it's it's asserting its uh its role. Keep in mind it was one president with one decision that changed how uh gold is viewed in the world. It it has never been a a global fiat monetary system. There's never been something like this. It is something that only happened in the last 50 uh five years. Before 19 before 1971, we've never had the entire world running on one currency with no no backing. Gold, silver, rice, and stones, whatever, silk, whatever it was. So, um, gold's going higher. Silver can go a heck of a lot higher if it is being remonetized which is something that's being discussed right now in and actually implemented in India. silver is starting to be used again as collateral and if uh and is allowed to be bought in pension funds and if that uh continues to happen in other countries if more legislation comes back for silver and it gets remonetized well you can uh argue that because of the uh demonetization of silver uh the the gold silver ratio has uh gone even to 120 to1 a few years ago and uh it it's going to go a lot lower if central banks are going to start buying uh silver again. >> If you think about why people have traditionally bought gold, it's also not just to hedge against geopolitical risk but to hedge against the strength of the dollar. Something interesting happened in the last couple weeks when Iran uh charged toll for certain ships to pass through. Uh they charged in either dollar denominated stable coins or yang. Why do they pick the Chinese yang as a currency, do you think? >> Well, they they're obviously sanctioned out of the swift for many many years. >> Yeah, but they could have picked uh you know, they could have picked their own currency. They could have picked uh I don't know, Russian rubles, what whatever, right? >> Their currency is is a is a million to one uh with with the dollar. They're they're they don't have a real currency anymore. Um they picked the yuan because the Chinese are the biggest uh consumer of their uh sanctioned and non-sanctioned o oil especially their sanctioned oil with with the ghost fleet. Um and China is the country that is able to uh continue supporting uh this regime for many many reasons. And so it's very uh um logical that they they would use uh the yuan as their >> but you don't see a global shift towards the yang as a global reserve currency right now. >> Um not yet not yet. It it it's it's it's certainly uh the the the number two candidate after the uh the dollar. There's 100% this is the country that is challenging uh the dollar. The China is challenging the United States on many levels. Uh they're they're a very sophisticated, formidable um powerful, successful. Their system uh is is working. Their system is working. It it it to to us in the west who uh believe in capitalism and freedom and and everything else, we are baffled by the success of the CCP and their system. But their system is not pure communism at all and um and to not respect what they've done is um is not the way to uh to proceed from here. The best way to proceed from here is to acknowledge that they are um a very important country, that they have big aspirations, and you have to uh do everything possible as world leaders to avoid any kinetic war between uh the United States and China and uh preferably any proxy war uh between major regional powers that that are directly affected by China and the United States. And I think that the last year and a half since um or or year and a little bit since Trump has come into office what he's trying to do and is to reach the point where in the month of May when he goes and uh meets with she that they can deescalate the relationship between them between the countries. Um and uh both are trying to come to the table with as much leverage as possible. But I think that after their meeting, you will see um a deescalation of both tariffs and um other um uh categories that impact them like AI, chips, uh pharmaceuticals, space, uh defense of course, rare earths, etc. I think that we are reaching the the peak of the um of the problem between the China and the United States for this year for 2026. There there will be many many more problems along in in the in the years to come in the decades to come etc. But um we are reaching a great point uh where the two leaders are going to meet face to face and a lot of the um of the work has been done already by Bent and Jameson Greer on on the American side and their economic and trade delegates on their side. Um and it does look like uh the two countries can um can deescalate. The name of the game is really uh oil and the reason the name of the game is oil is because oil fuels both of these countries uh uh electricity buildup. uh as you know in the United States they need to triple their electrical demand by 2030 just to meet uh all the all the compute power that comes out of the a the uh AI centers data um and and of course everything that has to do with um with uh inference and and AI etc. The same goes for China. The difference is that the United States is the world's largest producer of oil. It produces more oil than Russia and the the uh and Saudi Arabia combined. It is the powerhouse of oil production. And that is not true of the Chinese. And that is really uh if you look at uh the the leverage that Trump is trying to build it bring to the table uh both Venezuela and the Straits of Hormuz, they're both the same theme. Can I as the president of the United States moderate and control the amount of oil that goes into China? If I can do that, I have something big over them just like the Chinese um have successfully created a lot of uh monopolies and supply chain issues for the United States. So I think that uh heading into this summit between Chi and and and uh uh Trump, you're going to see a lot of deescalation which is going to be very good to the markets. I think that uh when it comes to gold and silver, the real thing you should the the main thing you should look at is not uh uh either escalation or deescalation of geopolitics. I think uh that in the month of June you will have something that's unprecedented for the dollar for gold and for silver and that is a new Fed chair that has a drastically different view than all the Fed chairmans that have come at least in the last generation but maybe even more. And this Fed chairman believes that the United States and he believes that in conjunction with uh the Trump administration, the United States government being that it leads the world's biggest military and uh the world's biggest economy should pay the lowest interest rates of any country in the world. And that is something very drastically different than fed than pest uh Fed chairmans. The second thing he believes in is that you don't raise interest rates when GDP goes up because of salary uh what do you call them uh uh salary spirals like when when all these ideas that um help the middle class and and uh hurt the elite. He doesn't believe in that and therefore that is a big change. Well, bottom line, how are you how have you repositioned your portfolio since February 28th? >> Well, that's the the the best question of all. Um, one thing that uh was very fortunate was uh uh to cash up a little bit before that. Uh you could see the the buildup and tensions and and um and everything else that um is something that is rarely talked about, David, but I'd like to just bring it up for one second. There's a lot of data out there and you can and and and maybe you've looked at charts and and uh stumbled upon it online of what happens if you if you miss the best 10 days of a year of a decade in the S&P 500. Have you come across this? It's amazing. If you miss the like the la the best 20 days and then the best uh or miss the best 10 days or miss you know uh uh it's it's an argument for buy and hold basically because if you miss the best days you're you're almost at break even um over the long term. It's amazing to to see those those um uh charts. What's not being discussed as much is how much you outperform the markets if you miss the worst days. And it's pretty dramatic. And I So I I know that everyone likes to say you don't time the market, you you put time into the market. And that is very true. If if you don't if you if you don't miss the best days, you will outperform the S&P 500. That that is true. Um so if you don't panic out, you will miss you won't miss the uh the best days and you will outperform. But if you are able and you do get a sense that there is going to be something big and you can cash out proportionally out of some of your positions, you will actually uh outperform the market dramatically. So, that's one thing I wanted to to just uh make sure people understand because if they research it on AI or everything else, research on uh how much I would outperform in the markets if I missed if I was able to be out uh in the worst days, then you'll see that there's a lot of value there. Um, ever since then, I have uh um basically realigned a lot of the a lot of that cash into three main categories which I think are coming. One is lower rates. Lower rates and what I call the tri the Trump bribe months. The Trump the Trump bribe months are the these months between now and the midterms where he has to convince the American people to go red. And in order to do that, he has to focus on the consumer and he has to focus on housing. And so housing has been in the worst market ever. Ever. The median home buyer is now 49 years old. That's insane. You spend half your life renting. Half of your life or even more renting. It is insane. Only 12. You get married late and you can't afford a home. Uh Trump is tackling that. I, if you're aware, he he already did a a hedge fund ban on single family homes. So, the Blackstone can't gobble up supplies um and and other and other firms. I'm bringing up Blackstone because it's it's a well-known one. Um, and I think a lot of more reforms are coming in housing, a lot that are going to make it much easier for the young average couple to to buy the American dream and to own a a piece of land. Um, so that's one. two, I think either a moratorum or an equivalent to a moratorum on capital gains tax when you sell your house. There are many millions of Americans that are in retirement age and they would gladly sell their homes and move to a nicer uh weather to a different uh uh state, better taxes, etc. if they would not have to pay so much in capital gains tax because they're sitting on houses that are in an alltime high. Third, I think that a tariff dividend check is coming. He needs to prove to the American people that tariff >> Sorry, when were the first two? >> I didn't say a first two. I said a tariff dividend check is coming. >> Sorry, I misheard. Okay. I thought you said third. Okay. Yeah. Wow. Okay. Okay. Well, he promised that and then he said >> you were like he missed me. Yeah. Where was that in the check uh in in the mail? No, but um I he he promised that, remember? And then he said he never said anything like that and then he and then he took it off the table. Probably for legal reasons. >> Mhm. Okay. I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm listening. >> Yeah. Probably for I'm just saying probably for legal reasons because uh the the uh Supreme Court struck him down because you're not supposed to, you know, tariffs are supposed to be for revenue, right? and he said refund it implies revenue. But anyway, I I'll let you continue. >> Yeah. So, I think I think tariff a tariff dividend check or something uh um in in the neighborhood of that is uh is coming. Okay. >> Because he has to prove to the American people the tariffs work. >> Uh and nothing says that something works like a check in the mail. So, um and that will get you votes. Uh so that's something I think uh um uh is definitely uh on the table. So housing and um is something I'm I'm very invested in right now. Uh uh stocks that have that that benefit from uh a better housing market, furniture, etc. Um uh and the consumer I think the consumer who is sitting on $8 trillion in money market accounts. How much does the money market account account pay right now? Do you know four four and a half%. If Kevin Wars is coming in June and is cutting interest rates, that 8 trillion is leaving leaving the money market accounts. Not everything, but about two to three trillion will likely leave and either go into housing or elsewhere into the economy. And that means the consumer is going to feel good. And I think he will spend when he buys a house, he will spend on furniture. He will go out. He So, uh, you have restaurant stocks. Um, he he anything that that that that spells out a better environment for the consumer. The consumer's been through a lot with President Trump. A lot. Uh, he's he's really flexed the muscles of Americans uh in his time here. it, you know, the VIX up, down, liberation day, tariffs, you know, Iran, now it's time for some smooth sailing, and I think that's what you're going to see, and that's how the portfolio is aligned. >> Okay. Excellent. Thank you. Where can we learn more about your portfolio and your strategies? >> Wealthressearchgroup.com. Uh you can subscribe to the free uh newsletter on the homepage. Every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday, it goes out. And actually, if you want to see my personal portfolio, you can go to wealthressearchgroup.com/portfolio and actually download it. We'll put the links down below. So, make sure to follow uh Leor and the wealth research group there. Thank you so much again, Leo, for coming on. We'll speak again soon. Take care. Take care. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe.
Gold To $10,000 As The Western World Faces Biggest Threat Ever | Lior Gantz
Summary
Transcript
The straits of Hermuz will continue to be a problem but their the importance of the straits is diminishing by the second. I think that a tariff dividend check is coming. >> How would you say um the markets are going to respond in the ne coming weeks? We're speaking on April 8th and this is the day after a ceasefire between Israel, Iran and the US have has been announced uh the night prior and now the straight of Hormuz is partially open and we have a situation where Brent crude has fallen 20% overnight. So how long will this stay open? How will the rest of the war progress and how will markets react to what's coming? We're going to talk about this and much more including markets and metals and mining stocks with Lear Gans, founder of Wealth Research Group. Welcome back to the show, Leor. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, too. >> Here are some of Iran's demands for uh permanent war. >> Yeah. Ending the war. Um among the list, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran, continued Iranian control, so basically sovereignty over the state of Hormuz, US military withdrawal from the Middle East, an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, the release of frozen Iranian assets, um and also not included on this particular list is uh rep war reparations. The US and Israel have to pay war reparations for the damages caused to Iranian infrastructure and personnel. Okay. Uh what is the point of this two-week war is my first question. Uh if >> two week ceasefire >> two week cease fire two week ceasefire that's what I meant to say. This two week ceasefire if the general consensus is that none of these demands are going to be met. >> Sure. and and um what we can do is look at uh previous uh ceasefires that happened during um the last uh two and a half to three years between President Trump and um and different organizations or countries or nation states etc in the Middle East. Um we always see that the points are very far away. Uh sometimes like in the case of uh Putin and and Zilinski, we see that the it doesn't come closer for months and months and months. Um so it's a question of of pressure and military leverage and and other points but it always starts very far and the Trump doctrine is to show that the American people and the world uh whether or not both sides uh were able to be flexible or not. And that's really um what this twoe period primarily is about in terms of um what's going to be shown to the public. uh es especially the American public which doesn't like um the war at all. Um it it does not it does not um it's not able to rally around the idea that um this is like uh Germany in 1935 and we have a chance to they don't see it this way that that this is like like a Germany 1935 and we have a four-year window before this becomes uh a real problem. So they they're not they're not making that connection. Perhaps it's it's the distance. Perhaps it's it's the the trauma from 20 years of nation building with Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps it's uh uh the adventures in in the jungles of Vietnam. Uh I'm I'm not sure exactly how to uh point this, but what I would tell you is that is something that President Trump is very attuned to, especially with midterms and especially with the stock market and rising oil prices. And there's another thing there is something called the AUMF, which is basically how he can invoke either a military operation and use military force or has to declare a war. uh in 1973 uh the Congress uh um enacted uh this this act and basically gives you 60 days of using military force without um uh a vote of Congress. Otherwise, you need to declare war and that uh takes both houses. So if you were uh President Trump and you needed uh more time, you either give it a a twoe ceasefire and then you can start a new operation and have new 60 days, which would be obviously very unpopular as well because everybody will see your your game or you'd need to show the American people in this period one of one of two things. Either one that uh Iran is a much bigger threat than we than we thought. that would uh in uh require the pro the Trump administration to show something very very threatening uh and to really uh rally the the uh the American public around it. I'm very uh doubtful that that this could be done. Um or uh there's a different plan um uh behind the scenes. I think that the ceasefire itself is very fragile. Um and and it it's and that's why Trump needed the ceasefire. uh the Iranians uh or the Iranian leadership uh needs the ceasefire because they're trying to understand exactly how to proceed from here um a after uh 36 days of of losing a lot of their military assets and and otherwise >> that what from the market perspective we just want to know well investors would like to know how long the straight of horm moves will remain open or closed and so here we have a scenario where the oil price WTI fell 20% last night still not back to its pre-war level. So, the market doesn't believe that the war is over, just that the ceasefire is happening. But actually, as of a couple hours ago, Iran closed the straight of Hormuz again because it was reported, this is Iranian state media is reporting that Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Um the Iranians said that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire and so the Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon uh which is ongoing broke this ceasefire and prime this is from CBC so there's a statement from Carney uh Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a joint statement uh with other world leaders that u the uh that basically he believes uh the ceasefire should include Lebanon. But Leo, let me just get your take on why this is happening currently uh and and and why the Israelis are pursuing um their own their own objectives here parallel to the ceasefire. >> Sure. um the the Iranian regime's um strategy towards um becoming the the biggest and mightiest uh force in the Middle East included the creation of uh proxies outside of their borders to um uh um make the war not on their terrain. That is that has been their main lesson after the 8 year war in 19 between them and the Iraqis between 1980 and 1988 which included muster gas and uh all sorts of atrocities. One of their biggest lessons was let's build proxies that uh distance uh wars from our uh terrain. Um, and one of their biggest ones are theah, and that's in southern Lebanon. And Lebanon is a very unique country because it it has a uh government that is not able to assert its sovereignty over the country um because of the um u being part of uh politics and also conquering their entire south of the country. So one of the key objectives of the ceasefire was to create this um distance between the two fronts and not to connect them. And what the Iranians are trying to do is of course connect those two fronts and say this is a bundle deal. So that's where really the the um the negotiations that you're seeing in real time are happening. Ultimately, how long how long do you think the straight of Hormuz will stay closed? Nobody knows for sure, but if you had to speculate based on current events and how things are progressing, how would you say um the markets are going to respond in the coming weeks? >> Um I think the straits of Hormuz are going to be a problem for months on end. The the reason I I say that is just so uh and also to give it some perspective. This does not mean a 100 or$150 or $200 oil at all. Um the the straits the straits of Hermuz are basically a choke point that the Iranians can use as leverage because the Qataris, the Emirate countries, uh Kuwait uh and the Saudis all use their side of the straight, the Persian, there's the Persian Gulf side and there's the Arabian uh side. And um basically they all have to go through this part that's a little narrower and that's the and there's an island there called Hermuz. That's the straits of Hermuz. What you want to do ideally and that is really the the the main point of uh the day after this this uh uh war is over in terms of uh oil, natural gas and everything that comes out of uh the ground in in that uh region is to do away with with the hormone rate. Make it less important than it was before. Take away that leverage from that regime. The way you do that is you turn, if you look at the map, you turn all the infrastructure away from the straits of Hermuz and towards the Red Sea. And if you can do that, you bypass two choke points uh that are very important and both have been used. One one is the the uh Hormuz Straits and two is the Bab and Mondev straits which the Houthis are projecting power over. If you do that and you get to the Red Sea, which the Saudis are already doing and uh I I assume the Emirates are going to do very shortly and other countries will will join them as well, then you are looking at the final choke point which is the Suez Canal. You can also bypass that if you create infrastructure that goes all the way to the ports of the Mediterranean from uh that Israel has and Lebanon has and Egypt has in the Sinai Peninsula. That uh will create a lot of safety that will weaken the ability of the Iranian regime to um uh hold the the world hostage over the streets of Hermuz. And it will do uh something amazing that and and that is basically the crown jewel. It will allow India to export to Europe via that exact uh infrastructure um uh route. Um basically the same route that uh those pipelines will go. There will be parallel uh train routes and and um uh and roads etc. And if India can export to Europe, connecting the two uh two of the biggest economic blocks in the world and going around uh these uh actors in the Middle East that have acted for a thousand for thousands of years as um as this toll booth in the middle then you can create uh amazing prosperity. Um that's what the United States want. what India wants and that's what a lot of the countries in this region uh want. So the answer is the straits of Hermuz will continue to be a problem but their the importance of the straits is diminishing by the second um and that really is the um the the chess uh game that that's being played here. >> I mean Saudi Arabia and and uh Gulf countries have their own pipelines to bypass this right there. Saudi Arabia, I read, is activating one of its pipelines built specifically for this purpose. >> It is trying it. It there is there is they already have the pipelines. They already have the port in uh Yamua um which is on on the Red Sea. Um the problem is it's they're still getting hit by drones and uh other things from um from Iran. So um and and some of the infrastructure is getting built uh right now. uh what's uh actually being discussed is also creating a lot of pump stations on the way. So if you hit any part of the pipe, you're not hitting the flow of the oil because it's getting pumped out, it's uh held like a in storage and then once fixed, it can continue. And I'm and I'm sure uh that uh once the the uh the all the infrastructure is in place, it's going to have drone protection and and everything else. really the um Iran if you look at it uh on a map it is the connecting bridge that China wanted to use for their belt and road initiative and what Russia wanted to use for their you can call belt and road initiative but it went basically north to south and through the caucus through the caucuses and then into Syria and projecting power into the Middle East the the Russian project is done because they've been Uh they're out of Syria and um uh Trump has brokered peace between Azerbaan and and Georgia, making it um and Armenia, I'm sorry. Um making the caucuses much safer and and basically killing uh this for um for Russia. China obviously much more formidable, much more sophisticated, much richer uh and everything else. It's not as simple. You you can check it. you can check their uh monopoly by introducing India to this equation and that is exactly what's uh um being discussed right now and and actually happening right now. How does this uh change or impact your outlook for precious metals and perceived safe haven assets if you think that the region in the future is probably going to be safer? That may be a bare case for gold longterm. However, what we've seen over the last four weeks is gold moving in lock step with stocks and other risk-on assets. So, either we think that gold is going to be a risk-on asset going forward. In other words, if this situation improves, we should buy gold or gold is going to default to its def, you know, to its standard risk off safe haven status, in which case you should short gold. What do you think? >> It's a great question. I the the reason that gold has uh um actually plummeted um during the war is because the price of oil risen dramatically which makes it uh much less uh profitable to mine gold. So you've seen mining stocks come down hard. That's because their costs are going up. Um and uh the price of gold and silver has come down because of a lot because of profit taken. uh gold and silver have been some of the best performers in the last two three years and uh a lot of uh uh big funds and institutional money and countries had to wound down a lot of their positions um during this uh during the last month and they've used gold and silver profits in order to do that um and fund many of the things that they've done. Look at Turkey in the last three weeks. Google Turkey selling gold and you can you can screen share this for your audience to see how much Turkey has uh had to sell their gold reserves in the last 30 days. It is insane. Um over the long term um uh the what uh drives the the price of gold forward is the fact that we are exiting the uh hyper globalized world where the dollar is this flawless medium of exchange between countries. That is no longer the case at all. uh countries can be either tariffed, sanctioned, uh their their assets can be frozen and these are not threats that other countries are willing to entertain. Uh and what we have to also acknowledge is that uh China is a much more formidable adversary to the United States than the Soviet Union was. their banking system is much more advanced, much more sophisticated and they can and they are creating ways around uh the dollar and they will be able to invite a lot of the countries that uh ideologically are closer to them uh to work with them on the yuan. So uh in the long term uh the gold is going a lot higher. gold is going above 10,000 an ounce. Um and and probably a lot higher than that. Um because it's it's asserting its uh its role. Keep in mind it was one president with one decision that changed how uh gold is viewed in the world. It it has never been a a global fiat monetary system. There's never been something like this. It is something that only happened in the last 50 uh five years. Before 19 before 1971, we've never had the entire world running on one currency with no no backing. Gold, silver, rice, and stones, whatever, silk, whatever it was. So, um, gold's going higher. Silver can go a heck of a lot higher if it is being remonetized which is something that's being discussed right now in and actually implemented in India. silver is starting to be used again as collateral and if uh and is allowed to be bought in pension funds and if that uh continues to happen in other countries if more legislation comes back for silver and it gets remonetized well you can uh argue that because of the uh demonetization of silver uh the the gold silver ratio has uh gone even to 120 to1 a few years ago and uh it it's going to go a lot lower if central banks are going to start buying uh silver again. >> If you think about why people have traditionally bought gold, it's also not just to hedge against geopolitical risk but to hedge against the strength of the dollar. Something interesting happened in the last couple weeks when Iran uh charged toll for certain ships to pass through. Uh they charged in either dollar denominated stable coins or yang. Why do they pick the Chinese yang as a currency, do you think? >> Well, they they're obviously sanctioned out of the swift for many many years. >> Yeah, but they could have picked uh you know, they could have picked their own currency. They could have picked uh I don't know, Russian rubles, what whatever, right? >> Their currency is is a is a million to one uh with with the dollar. They're they're they don't have a real currency anymore. Um they picked the yuan because the Chinese are the biggest uh consumer of their uh sanctioned and non-sanctioned o oil especially their sanctioned oil with with the ghost fleet. Um and China is the country that is able to uh continue supporting uh this regime for many many reasons. And so it's very uh um logical that they they would use uh the yuan as their >> but you don't see a global shift towards the yang as a global reserve currency right now. >> Um not yet not yet. It it it's it's it's certainly uh the the the number two candidate after the uh the dollar. There's 100% this is the country that is challenging uh the dollar. The China is challenging the United States on many levels. Uh they're they're a very sophisticated, formidable um powerful, successful. Their system uh is is working. Their system is working. It it it to to us in the west who uh believe in capitalism and freedom and and everything else, we are baffled by the success of the CCP and their system. But their system is not pure communism at all and um and to not respect what they've done is um is not the way to uh to proceed from here. The best way to proceed from here is to acknowledge that they are um a very important country, that they have big aspirations, and you have to uh do everything possible as world leaders to avoid any kinetic war between uh the United States and China and uh preferably any proxy war uh between major regional powers that that are directly affected by China and the United States. And I think that the last year and a half since um or or year and a little bit since Trump has come into office what he's trying to do and is to reach the point where in the month of May when he goes and uh meets with she that they can deescalate the relationship between them between the countries. Um and uh both are trying to come to the table with as much leverage as possible. But I think that after their meeting, you will see um a deescalation of both tariffs and um other um uh categories that impact them like AI, chips, uh pharmaceuticals, space, uh defense of course, rare earths, etc. I think that we are reaching the the peak of the um of the problem between the China and the United States for this year for 2026. There there will be many many more problems along in in the in the years to come in the decades to come etc. But um we are reaching a great point uh where the two leaders are going to meet face to face and a lot of the um of the work has been done already by Bent and Jameson Greer on on the American side and their economic and trade delegates on their side. Um and it does look like uh the two countries can um can deescalate. The name of the game is really uh oil and the reason the name of the game is oil is because oil fuels both of these countries uh uh electricity buildup. uh as you know in the United States they need to triple their electrical demand by 2030 just to meet uh all the all the compute power that comes out of the a the uh AI centers data um and and of course everything that has to do with um with uh inference and and AI etc. The same goes for China. The difference is that the United States is the world's largest producer of oil. It produces more oil than Russia and the the uh and Saudi Arabia combined. It is the powerhouse of oil production. And that is not true of the Chinese. And that is really uh if you look at uh the the leverage that Trump is trying to build it bring to the table uh both Venezuela and the Straits of Hormuz, they're both the same theme. Can I as the president of the United States moderate and control the amount of oil that goes into China? If I can do that, I have something big over them just like the Chinese um have successfully created a lot of uh monopolies and supply chain issues for the United States. So I think that uh heading into this summit between Chi and and and uh uh Trump, you're going to see a lot of deescalation which is going to be very good to the markets. I think that uh when it comes to gold and silver, the real thing you should the the main thing you should look at is not uh uh either escalation or deescalation of geopolitics. I think uh that in the month of June you will have something that's unprecedented for the dollar for gold and for silver and that is a new Fed chair that has a drastically different view than all the Fed chairmans that have come at least in the last generation but maybe even more. And this Fed chairman believes that the United States and he believes that in conjunction with uh the Trump administration, the United States government being that it leads the world's biggest military and uh the world's biggest economy should pay the lowest interest rates of any country in the world. And that is something very drastically different than fed than pest uh Fed chairmans. The second thing he believes in is that you don't raise interest rates when GDP goes up because of salary uh what do you call them uh uh salary spirals like when when all these ideas that um help the middle class and and uh hurt the elite. He doesn't believe in that and therefore that is a big change. Well, bottom line, how are you how have you repositioned your portfolio since February 28th? >> Well, that's the the the best question of all. Um, one thing that uh was very fortunate was uh uh to cash up a little bit before that. Uh you could see the the buildup and tensions and and um and everything else that um is something that is rarely talked about, David, but I'd like to just bring it up for one second. There's a lot of data out there and you can and and and maybe you've looked at charts and and uh stumbled upon it online of what happens if you if you miss the best 10 days of a year of a decade in the S&P 500. Have you come across this? It's amazing. If you miss the like the la the best 20 days and then the best uh or miss the best 10 days or miss you know uh uh it's it's an argument for buy and hold basically because if you miss the best days you're you're almost at break even um over the long term. It's amazing to to see those those um uh charts. What's not being discussed as much is how much you outperform the markets if you miss the worst days. And it's pretty dramatic. And I So I I know that everyone likes to say you don't time the market, you you put time into the market. And that is very true. If if you don't if you if you don't miss the best days, you will outperform the S&P 500. That that is true. Um so if you don't panic out, you will miss you won't miss the uh the best days and you will outperform. But if you are able and you do get a sense that there is going to be something big and you can cash out proportionally out of some of your positions, you will actually uh outperform the market dramatically. So, that's one thing I wanted to to just uh make sure people understand because if they research it on AI or everything else, research on uh how much I would outperform in the markets if I missed if I was able to be out uh in the worst days, then you'll see that there's a lot of value there. Um, ever since then, I have uh um basically realigned a lot of the a lot of that cash into three main categories which I think are coming. One is lower rates. Lower rates and what I call the tri the Trump bribe months. The Trump the Trump bribe months are the these months between now and the midterms where he has to convince the American people to go red. And in order to do that, he has to focus on the consumer and he has to focus on housing. And so housing has been in the worst market ever. Ever. The median home buyer is now 49 years old. That's insane. You spend half your life renting. Half of your life or even more renting. It is insane. Only 12. You get married late and you can't afford a home. Uh Trump is tackling that. I, if you're aware, he he already did a a hedge fund ban on single family homes. So, the Blackstone can't gobble up supplies um and and other and other firms. I'm bringing up Blackstone because it's it's a well-known one. Um, and I think a lot of more reforms are coming in housing, a lot that are going to make it much easier for the young average couple to to buy the American dream and to own a a piece of land. Um, so that's one. two, I think either a moratorum or an equivalent to a moratorum on capital gains tax when you sell your house. There are many millions of Americans that are in retirement age and they would gladly sell their homes and move to a nicer uh weather to a different uh uh state, better taxes, etc. if they would not have to pay so much in capital gains tax because they're sitting on houses that are in an alltime high. Third, I think that a tariff dividend check is coming. He needs to prove to the American people that tariff >> Sorry, when were the first two? >> I didn't say a first two. I said a tariff dividend check is coming. >> Sorry, I misheard. Okay. I thought you said third. Okay. Yeah. Wow. Okay. Okay. Well, he promised that and then he said >> you were like he missed me. Yeah. Where was that in the check uh in in the mail? No, but um I he he promised that, remember? And then he said he never said anything like that and then he and then he took it off the table. Probably for legal reasons. >> Mhm. Okay. I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm listening. >> Yeah. Probably for I'm just saying probably for legal reasons because uh the the uh Supreme Court struck him down because you're not supposed to, you know, tariffs are supposed to be for revenue, right? and he said refund it implies revenue. But anyway, I I'll let you continue. >> Yeah. So, I think I think tariff a tariff dividend check or something uh um in in the neighborhood of that is uh is coming. Okay. >> Because he has to prove to the American people the tariffs work. >> Uh and nothing says that something works like a check in the mail. So, um and that will get you votes. Uh so that's something I think uh um uh is definitely uh on the table. So housing and um is something I'm I'm very invested in right now. Uh uh stocks that have that that benefit from uh a better housing market, furniture, etc. Um uh and the consumer I think the consumer who is sitting on $8 trillion in money market accounts. How much does the money market account account pay right now? Do you know four four and a half%. If Kevin Wars is coming in June and is cutting interest rates, that 8 trillion is leaving leaving the money market accounts. Not everything, but about two to three trillion will likely leave and either go into housing or elsewhere into the economy. And that means the consumer is going to feel good. And I think he will spend when he buys a house, he will spend on furniture. He will go out. He So, uh, you have restaurant stocks. Um, he he anything that that that that spells out a better environment for the consumer. The consumer's been through a lot with President Trump. A lot. Uh, he's he's really flexed the muscles of Americans uh in his time here. it, you know, the VIX up, down, liberation day, tariffs, you know, Iran, now it's time for some smooth sailing, and I think that's what you're going to see, and that's how the portfolio is aligned. >> Okay. Excellent. Thank you. Where can we learn more about your portfolio and your strategies? >> Wealthressearchgroup.com. Uh you can subscribe to the free uh newsletter on the homepage. Every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday, it goes out. And actually, if you want to see my personal portfolio, you can go to wealthressearchgroup.com/portfolio and actually download it. We'll put the links down below. So, make sure to follow uh Leor and the wealth research group there. Thank you so much again, Leo, for coming on. We'll speak again soon. Take care. Take care. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe.