'Uprisings Everywhere' – Iran WAR Just the Start of Global CHAOS: Martin Armstrong
Summary
Geopolitical Conflict: Extensive discussion of Iran–US–Israel tensions, with expectations of broader, multi-front conflicts and persistent instability.
Energy Markets: High risk to oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, with targeted attacks on refineries and tankers potentially causing severe fuel shortages.
Refiners & Supply: Refineries are a prime target in any escalation, making refining capacity a critical chokepoint for global diesel and gasoline supply.
Food & Fertilizer: Diesel shortages and disrupted fertilizer flows (cited as ~30% transiting the region) could trigger food crises, especially in Europe and parts of Asia.
Digital Infrastructure: Vulnerability of subsea cables and Gulf-region data/AI hubs was highlighted, with past outages and the risk of broader banking-system disruptions.
Economic Outlook: The U.S. is relatively insulated on oil supply, while Europe faces recession-to-depression risk; Russia and China may strengthen amid Western disarray.
Investment Angle: Themes emphasized include energy security, refiners, Middle East risk, and undersea cables; no specific stock pitches were made.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is April 10th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to welcome Martin Armstrong to the program. An economic forecaster who has been called on by governments around the world in times of crisis, including the Reagan administration, Margaret Thatcher, and others. Martin breaks down the Iran war and the on-again off-again ceasefire and he explains why he believes that this conflict is part of a broader trend that will see the expansion of wars across the world leading to massive civil unrest that will ultimately result in the collapse of the current political system and hopefully a return to true democracy. Martin also outlines why the EU and NATO must go to war with Russia to survive. Why fuel and food shortages could become a serious problem in the aftermath of the closure of the Strait of Hormuse. How the madness of Benjamin Netanyahu is holding the world hostage and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Martin Armstrong. Martin Armstrong, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time I had you on the show was at the end of 2025. You said that a panic cycle was coming in 2026 and war was going to ramp up and boy did you prove to be correct on that one. Could you help us unpack this current conflict between Iran, the US and Israel? Because there's so much confusion as to why this war is happening, the players behind the scenes. What is your take? Basically, Netanyahu has been trying to sell this war on Iran to just about every president for the last 45 years. Um he made a big speech before uh the United Nations in 2010 or 2012 saying, "Oh, we have to take them out." Uh he's in my opinion I think he is as deranged as the people he hates on the other side. You I mean they all just hate each other you know. So this isn't something that is negotiable in the sense I'll give you boardwalk for Park Place, you know. It's uh um this is deeply entrenched and um I disagree with Netanyahu because there is no endgame to this. I mean all you do is think that this endless war as if you can conquer the other side and make it all better. I mean, you're just creating another generation of people that are going to hate you. Um, so I mean, I I don't know. I just think he's honestly deranged or possessed or something. I don't know. But uh uh you know there's it's been um seriously questioned how he was even in the situation room to make this argument. All right. On top of that, um my concern was that there's been um this assumption Trump listened to him. Um oh, go in, we kill the Ayatollah, we knock out their ballistic missiles and their nukes, and it's all over in one hour. Um, I think Trump wrongly believed that because it was a Venezuela type thing. And um, let's face the facts. Nobody, not even the Roman Empire was ever able to to conquer Persia. It's a very mountainous area. um you know you're not going to get you know it's not like Iraq where you can just you know a flat plane that you can drive in you know tanks etc. Um, I'm concerned that, you know, at the even the reports that came out from the meetings that the New York Times published, uh, I mean, I had heard before that, um, and I was actually up in Canada. I did a a couple of conferences there and you know I was shocked that there was no consideration whatsoever about the Straits of Harboo. uh like and I said there publicly I said you know I kind of was in an argument with some of them some people and I said if I were going to do this the first thing I would have done was secure the straight of Hermoose before the first bomb went I mean I don't know are we being is Washington full of just morons anymore um but there There's another serious issue that people don't even understand. All the cables that connect the world financial system go through the streets of Harmoose. All right. I had offices there in UAE. They were attacking, you know, the AI, you know, project there, which was a $30 billion project. Amazon a open AI all their systems are there okay people don't know this they attacked it they they did damage um not you know overwhelming but the banking system there was down for seven days my staff was there I finally got them out but you know um if they really hunted. You know, you're talking about um you know, ending the regime of Iran. So, this is like a you know, a a death, you know, sentence. When you're putting anybody up against that, then there's, you know, everything's on the table. Um, you know, if if I'm on that side and you're saying, "Okay, fine. That's it. I'm dead. You're going with me." I mean, I you know, I don't know. It's uh this is why honestly Netanyahu's been selling this plan for decades and this is why it has been rejected. Um, you know, first of all, you know, it's, you know, it takes two to tango, you know, and if you're going to um Netanyahu's, I I'm afraid, you know, a lot of people are are talk about that he's being driven by, you know, biblical prophecies. uh and you know in Samuel saying you know he's identified you know Iran as their ancient enemy and you know in the Bible with passage of Samuel it says you know kill them their wives their children their donkeys and camels and everything you know and um you know a lot of scholars have had very difficulty you know interpreting that that uh passage. So, but you know he seems and he you know when I think an Iranian missile hit he says we remember which is quoting that. So I it it's hard to say, you know, what is driving him, but I I'm afraid it's more in that line that he does not give a about the rest of the world. And you're seeing um in my opinion, you should take Netanyahu and Zalinski and the two of them should be locked up in a pan pan itself for the rest of their life. Um, you have Trump removing some of the sanctions on Russian oil to help the world and Zalinsky goes no way and attacks, you know, Russian oil to reduce it down to 40%. Again, he doesn't give a about Europe, the world, or anybody else but himself. I mean, we have two psychopaths here. Um, that, you know, and Trump is now hostage to this thing. Once he agreed, um, he's kind of stuck. The sponsor of today's episode is Arc, Silver, Gold, Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors, as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsg.com. Make sure to tell them, of course, the commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, let let me ask you this because the thing that Zalinski and Netanyahu have in common is that they're both incredibly corrupt and also could potentially be convicted of corruption um accused and convicted should these wars stop and should things kind of return to normaly. I mean Netanyahu was set to go on trial before the events of October 7th. Do you think that is part of the logic that's driving him to continue these wars for as long as possible? both in Lebanon a and in uh Iran as well to try to just keep his grip on power, remain in his role so that he doesn't have to face justice. >> Um yeah, look, I don't know if it's afraid to to face justice. He has asked for pardons. But um I am putting out a report of the fate of Israel and I have gone through everything and October 7th everything that I can see. Um, I mean, our computer picked that up in advance. Um, it was well documented that Hamas was training people in the summer of 23 months in advance. And that was just ignored. Um, and I mean, nobody's been able to get through their border, you know, and suddenly they could. Um what you do need for war is you need to be attacked. Uh that's when you get the rally around the flag and um I believe that Netanyahu knew what was coming. Uh Egypt said that they had warned them days in advance and nothing took place. So once that happened, all right, that gave him the green light for all of this, you know, the Gaza, the Lebanon that um I I think he is honestly I do think he's he seems to be driven by his biblical interpretations. Um, so whether it's it's just to get out of the charges, uh, I don't know. But I will say this, our computer is warning about June and July. He is up for election which it cannot be extended beyond October 27th. Um so if we look at what has taken place here, this is a complete failure. He didn't get a single one of his three points um for the whole purpose of this. Um and and the regime is still there. The nuke, you know, the uran uranium is still there. Um, and he's been talking about this uranium and why we got to go in and take and destroy them. And like I said, that's back in the 90s, he was saying this. He stood up with a chart, you know, at the United Nations in 2012. All right. Uh, if I were them and I had it had a nuke, I'd be using it by now. I mean, um, but he said the same thing about Iraq. Oh, weapons of mass destruction where there's three countries, you know, doing, uh, nukes, etc. And he was behind going in that. Um, so I mean, he's not trustworthy for anything that he says. Um, and I do know, you know, at least one senior general who said, "You cannot trust an Israeli intelligence." Um, it's always skewed and it's o optimistic at best. Um, but, uh, you know, honestly, I don't see this as subsiding. Um, one of the conditions that Iran wanted was that this ends the war and Netanyahu is not about to allow that to happen. Um, and that's why Trump, I think, finally realized too late that uh he's dealing with a psychopath because he he went in to deal with the ceasefire with Iran and didn't invite Netanyahu. Um, so it's this is not a very good situation and I don't see it getting better and Iran has, you know, the straits of Hormuse, you can take down the tankers. That's one thing. All right. So, you got maybe three million barrels in in a tanker. you take. What is really serious here is that they have looked at all the other Gulf states where American bases are and they've attacked their um refineries etc. Um, and people have to understand that, all right, in Asia, um, I mean, we've got offices in Thailand and there's no gas around, but besides the gasoline, all right, diesel. All the shipping fleets run on diesel, you're talking about a food shortage. besides the the 30% of the world um fertilizer goes through there. Um I mean Iran is extremely important. Um yes fine it's a religious you know you know the people should rise up and do their own thing when they can. All right. But for the rest of the world to intervene, um, you know, when there's so much at stake, you know, I just, you know, I I don't think this was well thought out. Um, and it's typical Netanyahu. Let's just do this. I hate them and I want to fulfill my dream. That's it. And he brought up nothing about the straight of Harboose. What about the world economy? Nothing. Always just him. >> So, how bad could this get in terms of the closure of the straight of Hormuse? Obviously, we know 20 plus% of the world's oil supplies go through the straight of Hormuse, natural gas, ura, all sorts of other um very important commodities and minerals. And I've heard the food shortage argument before that this could result in in that type of crisis. Now, we know about the fuel shortage happening in several countries. How bad do you think this could get on a global scale? Should people around the world be stocking up on food and and perhaps clean water at this point in time? What what what do you see as the ultimate outcome of this? What's the worst case scenario? And and where do you think things will land? >> Yeah, I think honestly you should have a couple years of of food. Um mainly because even with the worst case scenario aside um there's usually food shortages during war anyhow uh you had you know the victory gardens from World War II etc. Um, you already have uh energy protests and farmers going crazy in Greece and Ireland without you know fertilizer. You're talking about you know serious food shortage mainly in Europe. What our computer has been projecting and I've said you know for the last couple years that US would go into a recessionary period but Europe could go into a depression. And when you look at the facts here, US only gets 3% maybe 5% uh max oil from the Middle East. So we're not looking at fuel shortages in the United States, but Asia's, you know, dry. Europe is dry. So you see things outside much worse. Um and then this is um again unfortunately Trump just listened to Netanyahu and the problem here is that he didn't consult with anybody else. Um and now Europe is paying the price for him listening to Netanyahu and that's splitting NATO. Um so it's a real mess everywhere you go. The the only benefit out of this has been it's made Russia and China stronger. >> Do you think there's a blackmail angle here? Because this is obviously one of the main talking points that's getting thrown around on social media. We saw a very bizarre type of press conference with Melania Trump coming out and with no prompting giving some speech about how she doesn't know Jeffrey Epstein or she's not Jeffrey Epstein's friend. People are speculating that this could perhaps be her preemptively getting ahead of some big news item that's going to drop about Trump's involvement with Epstein. Um, and of course people believe the reason that Netanyahu has so much power over Trump is because of blackmail. Do do you buy into any of that or or do you think something else is going on behind the scenes? >> No, this is is um pretty much Netanyahu. um he's been trying this with every every president up to up to, you know, right up to Trump. Um I don't think you need to go into uh that type of a conspiracy theory. I mean, it was I mean, look, from what I know, there was no consideration whatsoever of of any of the downside risks. Um, and I know you can you can argue about Trump. That's nice. But what about the other people that were there? CIA, the rest, they remain silent. I mean, um, again, I think it was this nonsense of believing that they could take it out. um and win in an hour. Um the arrogance of some of these people is that simply because the United States has the largest military, that means you automatically win. And if they ever opened up a damn history book, they would find out it's exactly wrong. Uh Persia was the biggest. They were defeated by the Greeks. All right. Alexander the Great. All right. Defeated by the Romans. All right. Carthage was the big one. They were defeated by the fledgling Romans that came up. I mean, this is the biggest always falls. Um there is no exception to that. And it's usually because of hubris or arrogance that like we're seeing right now over the United States. We can walk into any country and just take them. Really, you know, if you don't know what you're doing, you're you're looking at bringing down the entire world. And that's the real risk here that I mean I'm no military genius, but if I'm sitting in Iran, I'm going to take out the cables. That will be my last one. I'm going to attack the refineries. All right? You keep coming after me. I'm taking out all the refineries. That's their biggest trump card. All right. Um, and you bring Europe to its knees and Asia to its knees and they're going to be screaming in Trump's ear. I mean, that's what I would do. You're talking about, you know, strategy here. And then worst case scenario, you take out the whole damn banking system. Um, you know, I and I didn't have to go to to West Point to figure that one out, you know. But, um, so I'm qu I question is there's nobody there that even understood these strategic risks in the Hormuse. I mean, I I don't know. I mean it's like we're we're we have Trump aside the rest of them there are what a bunch of morons. >> Well do you think there were military brass uh military commanders who did understand the risks and they were ignored or even fired as we saw recently there was a large round of firings by Pete Hegsth of military officials. Now, nobody knows the exact reason why, I don't think, but perhaps they brought up these issues um at some point. And also, as kind of a followup to that, if this really does go in the direction you're talking about, are we witnessing the end of the American Empire? Are we witnessing the end of American hijgemony at this point? And and what is and if so, what does that world look like? >> Yeah, I mean, look, um the computer's been projecting that for 2032 anyhow. um this is just how you get there. Um uh we do see that China will rise as the new financial capital of the world after 2032. Um and you know I've said that been on record you know for a decade. Um and um I mean United States won't completely fall apart in that sense, but it'd be more like the British Empire, you know. Uh it' be a memory more than anything else. Um but you you have a um also globally everybody is so polarized left versus right that what you're simultaneously seeing is a move towards separation. So Europe will break up. You're seeing that already with, you know, um conflicts back and forth. Um Canada will split, the west will leave the east. Uh United States will will break up. I mean, you even saw, you know, California, they wanted to separate. And I think the rest of the United States would say, "Yes, please go." You know, um and I'll give you a quarter for the bus ticket, you know. uh but it it's uh so at the same time these uh economic impacts from energy and food etc. um what they do is they cause other disputes to rise to the surface. So, for example, you're seeing what our computer was warning about um that this would be World War III, but not like World War I or two where it's one adversary you're facing. It's it's pockets of of uprisings everywhere. So it's Thailand versus Cambodia all of a sudden. You know, India versus Pakistan and Pakistan versus, you know, u Afghanistan and um then you got North Korea versus the South, China versus Taiwan. Uh it's it's everywhere. um Europe. I mean, so when you turn the economy down like this, um and we see it getting much worse going into 2028, all these disputes will rise to the surface. And uh so it's that's what our computer's been projecting. And I think it's been the best thing out there uh since sliced bread. you know, it's uh it's not biased. It it's called all the shots correctly. Um and um it's it's been, you know, um I think a light at the end of the tunnel to show us where we're actually going and what hopefully that these republic forms of government will come to an end and we'll go back more towards a direct democracy. like we should be asked shall we go to war with Netanyahu against Iran. Congress was not even asked no less the people. All right. U so and then they tell us we live in a democracy. This is total absolute BS. Um we don't get to decide anything. Um Vietnam War, the same thing. You're 18, old enough to get drafted. You weren't old enough to even have a drink. You had to be 21 to vote. So, oh, but that's democracy. No, it's not. This is all nothing but, you know, pomp and circumstance and, oh, we should, you know, cheer because we live in democracy and fight to the death for it. For what? Where's my right to vote? Yeah, exactly. Now, for those who don't know what Martin's talking about when he references the computer, it's a Socrates AI program that you began developing back in the 70s. Um, and and has made it analyzes all sorts of markets and world events, geopolitics. So, I wonder I want to pose the question. You said that perhaps the Iran war is not the end of what's going to be a much more uh diversified conflict in terms of other wars popping up around the world. Is that what Socrates is predicting that we will see the spread of more war and conflict across the world and not just uh isolated to the Middle East? Yeah. I mean, um, if Iran really damages the refineries and if Israel, which Netanyahu is completely insane in my opinion, if he arbitrarily goes after their production, they're going to take out everybody else's production. Okay? that's going to create massive civil unrest on a global scale. Um, also he can, you know, win his war. Then you got, you know, the crazy nut job Zalinsky over there, you know, trying to destroy Russia's. You're you're, you know, you're fighting for the Donbos, which are Russians. They've been there for 200 years. you want that territory. You've outlawed their language, their religion. I mean, you're just a piece of really. Um, that's not the way to get peace or or, you know, you know, we had, you know, employees in in Ukraine and most of they don't believe he was even legitimately elected. Now, I also want to talk about Germany because we're talking about conflict potentially spreading. Germany is now requiring, I don't know if it's official yet, but it's either in the works or or or it's happening already, military-aged males to seek permission if they want to leave the country for more than 3 months. Now, Germany has been one of the figureheads in advancing this idea of the militarization of the EU. we need to get ready for war with Russia. Um, do you think we're entering a world, because I know we've spoken about this before and and some other people have have brought this up of a potential conflict between NATO and Russia. How would you see that playing out? Do you think boots will eventually be on the ground? Is this the reason that Germany is starting to potentially move eventually towards a full-on draft? >> Oh, yeah. I mean, the EU cannot survive without war with Russia. It's it's breaking up. And when you're It's just like Netanyahu. All right. Afraid of losing power, he pushes this war. Europe is afraid of losing power. Economically, they are a disaster. All right. Um, and you have Mcronone who I think lives in La La Land and really thinks that uh they can conquer Russia, get the 75 trillion in natural resource assets and then rise again like the Roman Empire to rule the world. Um, you know, and I was saying that this for a couple years. People said, "Oh, really?" You know, then NATO came out. Root came out and he actually said, "If you think that you can conquer Russia without the United States, you're dreaming." So, he publicly finally came out and said what I've been hearing for two years behind the curtain. >> Now, staying on the EU, a very consequential election is being held in Hungary in just a couple of days to determine if Victor Orban remains prime minister there. Just recently here where I am in Serbia, explosive devices were discovered near a gas pipeline leading to Hungary. Uh with some seeing Ukraine as the culprit. Um we've seen some reports on social media that uh Ukraine the Ukrainian government or somebody involved with Ukraine is offering Ukrainians money to go and protest in Hungary. Um, what are your thoughts on all of these developments and what are the consequences if Victor Orban loses this election? >> Just more of a complete mess. Um, the EU wants him out and I can say that I believe the EU sanctioned uh, Zalinski to try and take out the the pipelines to Hungary. Um, and it it's I mean Victor Orban is probably the the last sound mind in in the EU. Um, and that's why they hate him. um you know he's blocked giving money to Ukraine et is this the end of I want to just take a step back for a moment and look at international law because it feels like it's being thrown completely out the window. Nobody's being held accountable. The international criminal courts of course have said Netanyahu is culpable for the actions that he's taken in Gaza and has committed a genocide. We know South Africa has put for forward a case against them. Supposedly Italy is potentially also going to be joining that. But there's never any consequences for these types of things. And as we kind of watch helplessly on social media, seeing videos of uh Israel bombing Lebanon and and civilians being killed and yet it seems like nobody has the power to actually do anything. What What are your thoughts there? Is international law just dead at this point? Is this going to become a every country for themselves, do whatever you want sort of system? Yeah, look, I mean, what Netanyahu has done is far worse. His assassination tactics, um, you know, if you call a peace conference, would you go when you know he uses that as a means to to kill you? Um, how do you negotiate? I mean, he has thrown international law out the window. He doesn't give a about anything. It's He's obsessed. Um maybe by the devil himself, I don't know. But I mean, he's just obsessed with this quest to to destroy Iran. Um and which is not achievable. So, what are you accomplishing? just endless wars for, you know, decades to come. You're you're just creating such hatred. Um, you know, oh, I don't like the the Jews because they killed my father, you know, I mean, it just goes on and on and on. It's a cycle of violence. >> And you mentioned republics and a potential end up ahead when all of the dust settles to the forms of government that we currently ascribe to. Um, could you walk us through that? Is Socrates giving any information on what might come after this? Because this system is just not working and it hasn't worked for quite some time. >> No, I think that's basically what 2032 the computer's been projecting. Um, and you have to understand it just doesn't pull this stuff out of the thin air. We go through these periods of time. um like we overthrew monarchy you know at the end of the 18th century. All right. Um unfortunately they chose a republic rather than democracy. They rejected the Greek model and took the Roman model. Um but throughout history I mean even in ancient times I laughed when Tenement Square happened and then they said oh it's communications that's why Berlin Wall fell. No, the you get these contagions just as in markets, but it's also in politics. Rome overthrew their Tarquin king in 509 BC and within 6 months Greece goes, "Oh, that's a good idea." They overthrow their tyrants and democracies born, right? And then sweeps the whole Mediterranean area. So, these are not unique events. All right? They're part of humanity. That's how we are basically. Um, and for example, you know, when I was called into the 87 crash with the presidential commission, all right, there was a professor and I said, "We're going to find the guy that shorted this market, made it go down." And I just said, "Excuse me, do you understand how a market even functions?" Well, I teach finance. I say that's very nice, but they they never trade it. All right. They think somebody comes in with a huge short position, forces it down. No, everybody's long. All right. The slightest news. All right. And all of a sudden, if 90% of the people are long, you got 90% sellers. And then they try to sell and you pick up the phone, you call the broker, and what's the broker say? There's no bid. All right. And then you get the egg crashes a thousand points because there's nobody there. You're not going to catch a falling knife. This is way humanity works. It doesn't matter if we're talking about markets or we're talking about politics. Okay? Once you lose that confidence, boom, that's it. It takes us a long time to gain that confidence. That's why a bull market is always longer and drawn out. A bare market very short, sweet and to the point. 29 low 32. Same you know look at all the charts you'll see the bare markets come down very fast and furious. 2007 lows 2009. All right. But it takes a long time to get up there. That's just humanity. So this time I think you know what we're seeing is that everybody's just as you said this isn't working. All right. The more people that understand that are going to demand a political change. Okay. That's what 2032 is about. And then hopefully at that time, you know, we get a constitutional convention, per se. Um, and maybe somebody will um look at this podcast and say, you know, maybe they were right. Maybe we should look at a direct democracy this time instead of a republic. You know, a republic is it it's I can run for anything. And look, I know how politics works. I want to run for Congress. I can tell you anything you want to hear. I'll save the whales. I'll do this. Then I get there. All right. The meeting comes. All right. Great. You're here. This is how it works. Just look at all the votes down party line. guys in the back room make the decision. You don't. That's a republic. So, I can run. I'll do anything you want me to say. But I can't do it. Simple as that. Uh that's real politics. Um that's what's got to change. And um you know I knew you know when there the the Tea Party was there and they 80 of them got in and they refused to follow in that meeting. So what did the head of Republicans do Bonner? He removed anybody from every committee having anything to do with finance if they were related to the Tea Party. they retaliate. Um, you know, he he refused to allow anybody to have Ron Paul's name even mentioned at the convention for a nomination for president. This is the back office and that's what's got to be cleaned out. >> Yes. And let's hope sanity does prevail at some point. Uh, tell us about Armstrong economics and the Socrates platform. Well, we've been around for probably more than 50 years at this point. Um, and we try to to keep it as an open uh forum. We don't sell advertising. You don't have to put your email in. We're not sending you, you know, 30 emails a day by, you know, trying to sell you swamp land in Florida or something. Um, we have a paid, you know, uh, system, Socrates, to to access the computer. Um it forecasts more than a thousand instruments every day and it's um it's completely AI generated. The computer's forecasting the world so it's not biased. Um you don't have somebody, you know, picking up the phone and say, "Hey, spin it this way or that way or whatever." Um, there aren't there aren't enough analysts in the world to cover everything it does. >> Great. Well, I'm going to put a link in the description to both Armstrong Economics and the Socrates platform for people who want to check that out. Martin, as always, love talking to you. Thank you so much for coming on the show. >> Well, thank you, Jesse. Take care over there. >> Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Arc Silver Gold Osmium. They have some great prices on silver and gold bullion products. They are displayed on your screen right now. These are subject to change and while supplies last. So make sure to reach out to owner Ian Everart today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And represent sound money in style with the official stacks not fiat t-shirt available in the commodity culture shop using the link in the description below. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.
'Uprisings Everywhere' – Iran WAR Just the Start of Global CHAOS: Martin Armstrong
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is April 10th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to welcome Martin Armstrong to the program. An economic forecaster who has been called on by governments around the world in times of crisis, including the Reagan administration, Margaret Thatcher, and others. Martin breaks down the Iran war and the on-again off-again ceasefire and he explains why he believes that this conflict is part of a broader trend that will see the expansion of wars across the world leading to massive civil unrest that will ultimately result in the collapse of the current political system and hopefully a return to true democracy. Martin also outlines why the EU and NATO must go to war with Russia to survive. Why fuel and food shortages could become a serious problem in the aftermath of the closure of the Strait of Hormuse. How the madness of Benjamin Netanyahu is holding the world hostage and so much more. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Martin Armstrong. Martin Armstrong, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time I had you on the show was at the end of 2025. You said that a panic cycle was coming in 2026 and war was going to ramp up and boy did you prove to be correct on that one. Could you help us unpack this current conflict between Iran, the US and Israel? Because there's so much confusion as to why this war is happening, the players behind the scenes. What is your take? Basically, Netanyahu has been trying to sell this war on Iran to just about every president for the last 45 years. Um he made a big speech before uh the United Nations in 2010 or 2012 saying, "Oh, we have to take them out." Uh he's in my opinion I think he is as deranged as the people he hates on the other side. You I mean they all just hate each other you know. So this isn't something that is negotiable in the sense I'll give you boardwalk for Park Place, you know. It's uh um this is deeply entrenched and um I disagree with Netanyahu because there is no endgame to this. I mean all you do is think that this endless war as if you can conquer the other side and make it all better. I mean, you're just creating another generation of people that are going to hate you. Um, so I mean, I I don't know. I just think he's honestly deranged or possessed or something. I don't know. But uh uh you know there's it's been um seriously questioned how he was even in the situation room to make this argument. All right. On top of that, um my concern was that there's been um this assumption Trump listened to him. Um oh, go in, we kill the Ayatollah, we knock out their ballistic missiles and their nukes, and it's all over in one hour. Um, I think Trump wrongly believed that because it was a Venezuela type thing. And um, let's face the facts. Nobody, not even the Roman Empire was ever able to to conquer Persia. It's a very mountainous area. um you know you're not going to get you know it's not like Iraq where you can just you know a flat plane that you can drive in you know tanks etc. Um, I'm concerned that, you know, at the even the reports that came out from the meetings that the New York Times published, uh, I mean, I had heard before that, um, and I was actually up in Canada. I did a a couple of conferences there and you know I was shocked that there was no consideration whatsoever about the Straits of Harboo. uh like and I said there publicly I said you know I kind of was in an argument with some of them some people and I said if I were going to do this the first thing I would have done was secure the straight of Hermoose before the first bomb went I mean I don't know are we being is Washington full of just morons anymore um but there There's another serious issue that people don't even understand. All the cables that connect the world financial system go through the streets of Harmoose. All right. I had offices there in UAE. They were attacking, you know, the AI, you know, project there, which was a $30 billion project. Amazon a open AI all their systems are there okay people don't know this they attacked it they they did damage um not you know overwhelming but the banking system there was down for seven days my staff was there I finally got them out but you know um if they really hunted. You know, you're talking about um you know, ending the regime of Iran. So, this is like a you know, a a death, you know, sentence. When you're putting anybody up against that, then there's, you know, everything's on the table. Um, you know, if if I'm on that side and you're saying, "Okay, fine. That's it. I'm dead. You're going with me." I mean, I you know, I don't know. It's uh this is why honestly Netanyahu's been selling this plan for decades and this is why it has been rejected. Um, you know, first of all, you know, it's, you know, it takes two to tango, you know, and if you're going to um Netanyahu's, I I'm afraid, you know, a lot of people are are talk about that he's being driven by, you know, biblical prophecies. uh and you know in Samuel saying you know he's identified you know Iran as their ancient enemy and you know in the Bible with passage of Samuel it says you know kill them their wives their children their donkeys and camels and everything you know and um you know a lot of scholars have had very difficulty you know interpreting that that uh passage. So, but you know he seems and he you know when I think an Iranian missile hit he says we remember which is quoting that. So I it it's hard to say, you know, what is driving him, but I I'm afraid it's more in that line that he does not give a about the rest of the world. And you're seeing um in my opinion, you should take Netanyahu and Zalinski and the two of them should be locked up in a pan pan itself for the rest of their life. Um, you have Trump removing some of the sanctions on Russian oil to help the world and Zalinsky goes no way and attacks, you know, Russian oil to reduce it down to 40%. Again, he doesn't give a about Europe, the world, or anybody else but himself. I mean, we have two psychopaths here. Um, that, you know, and Trump is now hostage to this thing. Once he agreed, um, he's kind of stuck. The sponsor of today's episode is Arc, Silver, Gold, Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors, as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsg.com. Make sure to tell them, of course, the commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, let let me ask you this because the thing that Zalinski and Netanyahu have in common is that they're both incredibly corrupt and also could potentially be convicted of corruption um accused and convicted should these wars stop and should things kind of return to normaly. I mean Netanyahu was set to go on trial before the events of October 7th. Do you think that is part of the logic that's driving him to continue these wars for as long as possible? both in Lebanon a and in uh Iran as well to try to just keep his grip on power, remain in his role so that he doesn't have to face justice. >> Um yeah, look, I don't know if it's afraid to to face justice. He has asked for pardons. But um I am putting out a report of the fate of Israel and I have gone through everything and October 7th everything that I can see. Um, I mean, our computer picked that up in advance. Um, it was well documented that Hamas was training people in the summer of 23 months in advance. And that was just ignored. Um, and I mean, nobody's been able to get through their border, you know, and suddenly they could. Um what you do need for war is you need to be attacked. Uh that's when you get the rally around the flag and um I believe that Netanyahu knew what was coming. Uh Egypt said that they had warned them days in advance and nothing took place. So once that happened, all right, that gave him the green light for all of this, you know, the Gaza, the Lebanon that um I I think he is honestly I do think he's he seems to be driven by his biblical interpretations. Um, so whether it's it's just to get out of the charges, uh, I don't know. But I will say this, our computer is warning about June and July. He is up for election which it cannot be extended beyond October 27th. Um so if we look at what has taken place here, this is a complete failure. He didn't get a single one of his three points um for the whole purpose of this. Um and and the regime is still there. The nuke, you know, the uran uranium is still there. Um, and he's been talking about this uranium and why we got to go in and take and destroy them. And like I said, that's back in the 90s, he was saying this. He stood up with a chart, you know, at the United Nations in 2012. All right. Uh, if I were them and I had it had a nuke, I'd be using it by now. I mean, um, but he said the same thing about Iraq. Oh, weapons of mass destruction where there's three countries, you know, doing, uh, nukes, etc. And he was behind going in that. Um, so I mean, he's not trustworthy for anything that he says. Um, and I do know, you know, at least one senior general who said, "You cannot trust an Israeli intelligence." Um, it's always skewed and it's o optimistic at best. Um, but, uh, you know, honestly, I don't see this as subsiding. Um, one of the conditions that Iran wanted was that this ends the war and Netanyahu is not about to allow that to happen. Um, and that's why Trump, I think, finally realized too late that uh he's dealing with a psychopath because he he went in to deal with the ceasefire with Iran and didn't invite Netanyahu. Um, so it's this is not a very good situation and I don't see it getting better and Iran has, you know, the straits of Hormuse, you can take down the tankers. That's one thing. All right. So, you got maybe three million barrels in in a tanker. you take. What is really serious here is that they have looked at all the other Gulf states where American bases are and they've attacked their um refineries etc. Um, and people have to understand that, all right, in Asia, um, I mean, we've got offices in Thailand and there's no gas around, but besides the gasoline, all right, diesel. All the shipping fleets run on diesel, you're talking about a food shortage. besides the the 30% of the world um fertilizer goes through there. Um I mean Iran is extremely important. Um yes fine it's a religious you know you know the people should rise up and do their own thing when they can. All right. But for the rest of the world to intervene, um, you know, when there's so much at stake, you know, I just, you know, I I don't think this was well thought out. Um, and it's typical Netanyahu. Let's just do this. I hate them and I want to fulfill my dream. That's it. And he brought up nothing about the straight of Harboose. What about the world economy? Nothing. Always just him. >> So, how bad could this get in terms of the closure of the straight of Hormuse? Obviously, we know 20 plus% of the world's oil supplies go through the straight of Hormuse, natural gas, ura, all sorts of other um very important commodities and minerals. And I've heard the food shortage argument before that this could result in in that type of crisis. Now, we know about the fuel shortage happening in several countries. How bad do you think this could get on a global scale? Should people around the world be stocking up on food and and perhaps clean water at this point in time? What what what do you see as the ultimate outcome of this? What's the worst case scenario? And and where do you think things will land? >> Yeah, I think honestly you should have a couple years of of food. Um mainly because even with the worst case scenario aside um there's usually food shortages during war anyhow uh you had you know the victory gardens from World War II etc. Um, you already have uh energy protests and farmers going crazy in Greece and Ireland without you know fertilizer. You're talking about you know serious food shortage mainly in Europe. What our computer has been projecting and I've said you know for the last couple years that US would go into a recessionary period but Europe could go into a depression. And when you look at the facts here, US only gets 3% maybe 5% uh max oil from the Middle East. So we're not looking at fuel shortages in the United States, but Asia's, you know, dry. Europe is dry. So you see things outside much worse. Um and then this is um again unfortunately Trump just listened to Netanyahu and the problem here is that he didn't consult with anybody else. Um and now Europe is paying the price for him listening to Netanyahu and that's splitting NATO. Um so it's a real mess everywhere you go. The the only benefit out of this has been it's made Russia and China stronger. >> Do you think there's a blackmail angle here? Because this is obviously one of the main talking points that's getting thrown around on social media. We saw a very bizarre type of press conference with Melania Trump coming out and with no prompting giving some speech about how she doesn't know Jeffrey Epstein or she's not Jeffrey Epstein's friend. People are speculating that this could perhaps be her preemptively getting ahead of some big news item that's going to drop about Trump's involvement with Epstein. Um, and of course people believe the reason that Netanyahu has so much power over Trump is because of blackmail. Do do you buy into any of that or or do you think something else is going on behind the scenes? >> No, this is is um pretty much Netanyahu. um he's been trying this with every every president up to up to, you know, right up to Trump. Um I don't think you need to go into uh that type of a conspiracy theory. I mean, it was I mean, look, from what I know, there was no consideration whatsoever of of any of the downside risks. Um, and I know you can you can argue about Trump. That's nice. But what about the other people that were there? CIA, the rest, they remain silent. I mean, um, again, I think it was this nonsense of believing that they could take it out. um and win in an hour. Um the arrogance of some of these people is that simply because the United States has the largest military, that means you automatically win. And if they ever opened up a damn history book, they would find out it's exactly wrong. Uh Persia was the biggest. They were defeated by the Greeks. All right. Alexander the Great. All right. Defeated by the Romans. All right. Carthage was the big one. They were defeated by the fledgling Romans that came up. I mean, this is the biggest always falls. Um there is no exception to that. And it's usually because of hubris or arrogance that like we're seeing right now over the United States. We can walk into any country and just take them. Really, you know, if you don't know what you're doing, you're you're looking at bringing down the entire world. And that's the real risk here that I mean I'm no military genius, but if I'm sitting in Iran, I'm going to take out the cables. That will be my last one. I'm going to attack the refineries. All right? You keep coming after me. I'm taking out all the refineries. That's their biggest trump card. All right. Um, and you bring Europe to its knees and Asia to its knees and they're going to be screaming in Trump's ear. I mean, that's what I would do. You're talking about, you know, strategy here. And then worst case scenario, you take out the whole damn banking system. Um, you know, I and I didn't have to go to to West Point to figure that one out, you know. But, um, so I'm qu I question is there's nobody there that even understood these strategic risks in the Hormuse. I mean, I I don't know. I mean it's like we're we're we have Trump aside the rest of them there are what a bunch of morons. >> Well do you think there were military brass uh military commanders who did understand the risks and they were ignored or even fired as we saw recently there was a large round of firings by Pete Hegsth of military officials. Now, nobody knows the exact reason why, I don't think, but perhaps they brought up these issues um at some point. And also, as kind of a followup to that, if this really does go in the direction you're talking about, are we witnessing the end of the American Empire? Are we witnessing the end of American hijgemony at this point? And and what is and if so, what does that world look like? >> Yeah, I mean, look, um the computer's been projecting that for 2032 anyhow. um this is just how you get there. Um uh we do see that China will rise as the new financial capital of the world after 2032. Um and you know I've said that been on record you know for a decade. Um and um I mean United States won't completely fall apart in that sense, but it'd be more like the British Empire, you know. Uh it' be a memory more than anything else. Um but you you have a um also globally everybody is so polarized left versus right that what you're simultaneously seeing is a move towards separation. So Europe will break up. You're seeing that already with, you know, um conflicts back and forth. Um Canada will split, the west will leave the east. Uh United States will will break up. I mean, you even saw, you know, California, they wanted to separate. And I think the rest of the United States would say, "Yes, please go." You know, um and I'll give you a quarter for the bus ticket, you know. uh but it it's uh so at the same time these uh economic impacts from energy and food etc. um what they do is they cause other disputes to rise to the surface. So, for example, you're seeing what our computer was warning about um that this would be World War III, but not like World War I or two where it's one adversary you're facing. It's it's pockets of of uprisings everywhere. So it's Thailand versus Cambodia all of a sudden. You know, India versus Pakistan and Pakistan versus, you know, u Afghanistan and um then you got North Korea versus the South, China versus Taiwan. Uh it's it's everywhere. um Europe. I mean, so when you turn the economy down like this, um and we see it getting much worse going into 2028, all these disputes will rise to the surface. And uh so it's that's what our computer's been projecting. And I think it's been the best thing out there uh since sliced bread. you know, it's uh it's not biased. It it's called all the shots correctly. Um and um it's it's been, you know, um I think a light at the end of the tunnel to show us where we're actually going and what hopefully that these republic forms of government will come to an end and we'll go back more towards a direct democracy. like we should be asked shall we go to war with Netanyahu against Iran. Congress was not even asked no less the people. All right. U so and then they tell us we live in a democracy. This is total absolute BS. Um we don't get to decide anything. Um Vietnam War, the same thing. You're 18, old enough to get drafted. You weren't old enough to even have a drink. You had to be 21 to vote. So, oh, but that's democracy. No, it's not. This is all nothing but, you know, pomp and circumstance and, oh, we should, you know, cheer because we live in democracy and fight to the death for it. For what? Where's my right to vote? Yeah, exactly. Now, for those who don't know what Martin's talking about when he references the computer, it's a Socrates AI program that you began developing back in the 70s. Um, and and has made it analyzes all sorts of markets and world events, geopolitics. So, I wonder I want to pose the question. You said that perhaps the Iran war is not the end of what's going to be a much more uh diversified conflict in terms of other wars popping up around the world. Is that what Socrates is predicting that we will see the spread of more war and conflict across the world and not just uh isolated to the Middle East? Yeah. I mean, um, if Iran really damages the refineries and if Israel, which Netanyahu is completely insane in my opinion, if he arbitrarily goes after their production, they're going to take out everybody else's production. Okay? that's going to create massive civil unrest on a global scale. Um, also he can, you know, win his war. Then you got, you know, the crazy nut job Zalinsky over there, you know, trying to destroy Russia's. You're you're, you know, you're fighting for the Donbos, which are Russians. They've been there for 200 years. you want that territory. You've outlawed their language, their religion. I mean, you're just a piece of really. Um, that's not the way to get peace or or, you know, you know, we had, you know, employees in in Ukraine and most of they don't believe he was even legitimately elected. Now, I also want to talk about Germany because we're talking about conflict potentially spreading. Germany is now requiring, I don't know if it's official yet, but it's either in the works or or or it's happening already, military-aged males to seek permission if they want to leave the country for more than 3 months. Now, Germany has been one of the figureheads in advancing this idea of the militarization of the EU. we need to get ready for war with Russia. Um, do you think we're entering a world, because I know we've spoken about this before and and some other people have have brought this up of a potential conflict between NATO and Russia. How would you see that playing out? Do you think boots will eventually be on the ground? Is this the reason that Germany is starting to potentially move eventually towards a full-on draft? >> Oh, yeah. I mean, the EU cannot survive without war with Russia. It's it's breaking up. And when you're It's just like Netanyahu. All right. Afraid of losing power, he pushes this war. Europe is afraid of losing power. Economically, they are a disaster. All right. Um, and you have Mcronone who I think lives in La La Land and really thinks that uh they can conquer Russia, get the 75 trillion in natural resource assets and then rise again like the Roman Empire to rule the world. Um, you know, and I was saying that this for a couple years. People said, "Oh, really?" You know, then NATO came out. Root came out and he actually said, "If you think that you can conquer Russia without the United States, you're dreaming." So, he publicly finally came out and said what I've been hearing for two years behind the curtain. >> Now, staying on the EU, a very consequential election is being held in Hungary in just a couple of days to determine if Victor Orban remains prime minister there. Just recently here where I am in Serbia, explosive devices were discovered near a gas pipeline leading to Hungary. Uh with some seeing Ukraine as the culprit. Um we've seen some reports on social media that uh Ukraine the Ukrainian government or somebody involved with Ukraine is offering Ukrainians money to go and protest in Hungary. Um, what are your thoughts on all of these developments and what are the consequences if Victor Orban loses this election? >> Just more of a complete mess. Um, the EU wants him out and I can say that I believe the EU sanctioned uh, Zalinski to try and take out the the pipelines to Hungary. Um, and it it's I mean Victor Orban is probably the the last sound mind in in the EU. Um, and that's why they hate him. um you know he's blocked giving money to Ukraine et is this the end of I want to just take a step back for a moment and look at international law because it feels like it's being thrown completely out the window. Nobody's being held accountable. The international criminal courts of course have said Netanyahu is culpable for the actions that he's taken in Gaza and has committed a genocide. We know South Africa has put for forward a case against them. Supposedly Italy is potentially also going to be joining that. But there's never any consequences for these types of things. And as we kind of watch helplessly on social media, seeing videos of uh Israel bombing Lebanon and and civilians being killed and yet it seems like nobody has the power to actually do anything. What What are your thoughts there? Is international law just dead at this point? Is this going to become a every country for themselves, do whatever you want sort of system? Yeah, look, I mean, what Netanyahu has done is far worse. His assassination tactics, um, you know, if you call a peace conference, would you go when you know he uses that as a means to to kill you? Um, how do you negotiate? I mean, he has thrown international law out the window. He doesn't give a about anything. It's He's obsessed. Um maybe by the devil himself, I don't know. But I mean, he's just obsessed with this quest to to destroy Iran. Um and which is not achievable. So, what are you accomplishing? just endless wars for, you know, decades to come. You're you're just creating such hatred. Um, you know, oh, I don't like the the Jews because they killed my father, you know, I mean, it just goes on and on and on. It's a cycle of violence. >> And you mentioned republics and a potential end up ahead when all of the dust settles to the forms of government that we currently ascribe to. Um, could you walk us through that? Is Socrates giving any information on what might come after this? Because this system is just not working and it hasn't worked for quite some time. >> No, I think that's basically what 2032 the computer's been projecting. Um, and you have to understand it just doesn't pull this stuff out of the thin air. We go through these periods of time. um like we overthrew monarchy you know at the end of the 18th century. All right. Um unfortunately they chose a republic rather than democracy. They rejected the Greek model and took the Roman model. Um but throughout history I mean even in ancient times I laughed when Tenement Square happened and then they said oh it's communications that's why Berlin Wall fell. No, the you get these contagions just as in markets, but it's also in politics. Rome overthrew their Tarquin king in 509 BC and within 6 months Greece goes, "Oh, that's a good idea." They overthrow their tyrants and democracies born, right? And then sweeps the whole Mediterranean area. So, these are not unique events. All right? They're part of humanity. That's how we are basically. Um, and for example, you know, when I was called into the 87 crash with the presidential commission, all right, there was a professor and I said, "We're going to find the guy that shorted this market, made it go down." And I just said, "Excuse me, do you understand how a market even functions?" Well, I teach finance. I say that's very nice, but they they never trade it. All right. They think somebody comes in with a huge short position, forces it down. No, everybody's long. All right. The slightest news. All right. And all of a sudden, if 90% of the people are long, you got 90% sellers. And then they try to sell and you pick up the phone, you call the broker, and what's the broker say? There's no bid. All right. And then you get the egg crashes a thousand points because there's nobody there. You're not going to catch a falling knife. This is way humanity works. It doesn't matter if we're talking about markets or we're talking about politics. Okay? Once you lose that confidence, boom, that's it. It takes us a long time to gain that confidence. That's why a bull market is always longer and drawn out. A bare market very short, sweet and to the point. 29 low 32. Same you know look at all the charts you'll see the bare markets come down very fast and furious. 2007 lows 2009. All right. But it takes a long time to get up there. That's just humanity. So this time I think you know what we're seeing is that everybody's just as you said this isn't working. All right. The more people that understand that are going to demand a political change. Okay. That's what 2032 is about. And then hopefully at that time, you know, we get a constitutional convention, per se. Um, and maybe somebody will um look at this podcast and say, you know, maybe they were right. Maybe we should look at a direct democracy this time instead of a republic. You know, a republic is it it's I can run for anything. And look, I know how politics works. I want to run for Congress. I can tell you anything you want to hear. I'll save the whales. I'll do this. Then I get there. All right. The meeting comes. All right. Great. You're here. This is how it works. Just look at all the votes down party line. guys in the back room make the decision. You don't. That's a republic. So, I can run. I'll do anything you want me to say. But I can't do it. Simple as that. Uh that's real politics. Um that's what's got to change. And um you know I knew you know when there the the Tea Party was there and they 80 of them got in and they refused to follow in that meeting. So what did the head of Republicans do Bonner? He removed anybody from every committee having anything to do with finance if they were related to the Tea Party. they retaliate. Um, you know, he he refused to allow anybody to have Ron Paul's name even mentioned at the convention for a nomination for president. This is the back office and that's what's got to be cleaned out. >> Yes. And let's hope sanity does prevail at some point. Uh, tell us about Armstrong economics and the Socrates platform. Well, we've been around for probably more than 50 years at this point. Um, and we try to to keep it as an open uh forum. We don't sell advertising. You don't have to put your email in. We're not sending you, you know, 30 emails a day by, you know, trying to sell you swamp land in Florida or something. Um, we have a paid, you know, uh, system, Socrates, to to access the computer. Um it forecasts more than a thousand instruments every day and it's um it's completely AI generated. The computer's forecasting the world so it's not biased. Um you don't have somebody, you know, picking up the phone and say, "Hey, spin it this way or that way or whatever." Um, there aren't there aren't enough analysts in the world to cover everything it does. >> Great. Well, I'm going to put a link in the description to both Armstrong Economics and the Socrates platform for people who want to check that out. Martin, as always, love talking to you. Thank you so much for coming on the show. >> Well, thank you, Jesse. Take care over there. >> Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Arc Silver Gold Osmium. 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