Market Breakout: Why Things Get Loud Fast After The Move
Summary
Energy Markets: The guests emphasize a bullish setup for oil and gasoline, citing breakouts above key levels and ongoing supply disruptions tied to Iran.
Oil Price Spike: They describe a fierce battle around $100 WTI and note that once breached, momentum traders could amplify upside, driving oil materially higher.
Higher Gasoline Prices: U.S. gasoline prices are hitting new highs, with a forecast for a potential $5 national average if the Strait remains closed and inventories continue to draw.
Geopolitical Risk: Stalled U.S.-Iran talks and a potential extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz create significant uncertainty and risk to global energy supply.
SPR Drawdowns: The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being tapped aggressively, draining inventories as global buyers take advantage, while China has reportedly not drawn its SPR.
Supply-Demand Dynamics: Artificially suppressing prices leads to excess demand and rapid inventory draws; allowing market pricing is argued as the only sustainable balance.
Bond Market Stress: They warn that rising yields and 2022-style drawdowns show 60/40 fragility, with the risk that both stocks and bonds fall together in an energy shock.
No Specific Tickers: No individual public companies were pitched; the focus was on macro energy themes and portfolio risk management.
Transcript
Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. The stronger the battle, the greater the move is either way. So, the fact that we've broken out above that right now, you're going to have a lot of momentum traders that are going to come in behind that as well, which will further exacerbate the upside price potential, and this could get pretty ugly, quite frankly. Hello everyone and welcome to this episode of FinanceU. I'm your host Chris Martinson back with Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth Management. How you doing today, Paul? >> I'm doing good. Happy Wednesday to you, Chris. Good to see you again. >> Happy Wednesday. We are recording this on Wednesday. It looks like it's April 29th. We have a lot to discuss today, Paul. And we're going to begin with this uh if we can talking about the Iran war of course, but oil and gasoline prices are finally on the rise again. We'll get to that data in just a second, but this is how the Wall Street Journal, this is the main talking point they're spinning right now, which is that uh they say here, quote, "Talks between the US and Iran have stalled." Certainly have. American officials are betting that Iran will soon crack because of the deepening economic crisis. Iran is betting the US will crack first and end its blockade of Iranian ports to calm global markets and bring down American gasoline prices which are on the rise today. They say here, however, but authorities are confronting a level of hardship not seen in decades according to Iranian residents who go unnamed. And they say as well, well, as as the money dries up because of the blockade, we may find more and more folks have no choice but to mobilize politically. So that that Paul is the is the um hope here. They say here, you know, sub headline, Iranians feel the pain as their economy descends into a death spiral. That's a pretty strong piece of language for what's not an editorial. Um this is actually just an article, but that that's the that's the story right now. Iranians are going to buckle because of the economic pressure, and that's really the the story they're running with right now officially. But what if the Iranians don't buckle? What if they're more committed than that? We could easily see this straight of Hooves remain closed for another month, two months, three months. The the economic pain to the rest of the world is going to be extraordinary if that happens. What do you think about about this approach? >> I think it's really interesting, especially with all the headlines coming out about the oil shutins and that's going to destroy their their production capabilities forever. And that's the biggest reason that they're, you know, that the US has the upper hand. Now, I've tried to learn as much as I can. I know you know that. So, you can you can update everybody as far as what the ramifications of the oil shutins and top offs and how they'll lose production. There's differing beliefs on the timeline till we'll reach that from what I understand. But I kind of look at it from an equity market standpoint. The equity markets have gone with the with the speculation. I guess it's in line with what what was it Trump said a couple of days ago. You know, the world is a casino. The markets seem to be acting like a casino and placing their bets at this point that there's no way that we're going to have this continue that somebody's not going to let it happen. Iran's not going to be in a situation to where those shutins would occur. And and if this does occur much longer, right, whether it's further time before they have to to reach that shut in or they don't care, right, because they want the economic impact to ripple across the world, we're going to have some massive compounding effects in the markets uh economically. If if we if we reach that standpoint, the longer this goes on, the the much greater the damage is going to be, and I believe that it sets up for a potential vacuum to the downside in the markets. I do >> after the uh JCPOA collapse happened and also in the context of COVID Iran's oil production got totally shut in for three or four months like was completely shut in and it you know I don't know what damage happened to the reservoirs but they survived that they've survived a lot of things. So, I'm just a little worried that we seem to be having this this this I hope is a terrible strategy, right, for portfolios, but I think also for politics. And maybe they're just giving us one story, but out here it looks that's a hope. We're going to hope that the Iranians rise up against their >> their, you know, overlords. We're going to hope that, you know, the pain that they're experiencing causes this thing we want to have happen. The more direct thing would be to say they need some things, we need some things. We're going to have to negotiate. We won't get everything we want. Maybe they don't get everything they want. But that's how you go forward. Right now, when they say the talks have stalled, the US has 15 things we want and we won't budge on. And they have five or seven things now that they want that they won't budge on, and none of them match, right? >> No. >> So, we're not really at the negotiating stage yet, I don't think. you know that negotiations happen when you start to pull things off of your list and they modify things on their list and pull things off and then you come up with agreed upon set of things >> and we reach that compromise and and the problem is the US is at least acting like we hold all the cards that that we can control this or wipe them out or do whatever and that they're going to crack and you know there are there are unfortunately times where the underdog just refuses to give up. I mean, my grandfather came through the Great Depression. I remember him telling me one time, he said, "Son," he said, he said, "If you get knocked down, keep getting up. If you're getting beat so hard while you're knocked down, as long as you can keep your nose out of the dirt or the water, keep fighting." And and that's, you know, when you have these economies that and these countries where especially those leaders don't want to give up their power, you know, that's my concern is that they're like, "Okay, fine. We'll burn the world down if you're uh before we're going to uh uh before we're going to give in." and just and not have some compromise here. And the US seems like they won't do that. So, we're at a standstill. And there's a lot of and the markets seem to be speculating that that they're going to cave in. I don't know if they will or not, but at this point, they sure haven't. >> Nope, sure haven't. And um accompanying that yesterday uh we found out also from the Wall Street Journal that President Trump has instructed aids to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran targeting the regime's coffers, its its bank accounts in a high risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation. Tran has long refused. Not totally accurate. Uh Tran did sign a document um a nuclear document and that got torn up uh by Trump. So >> okay, >> that was yesterday. This is today. Uh I it's just it's so hard keeping up with Donald Trump. He tweets out today, Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. Don't know what he means by that. They better get smart soon. No more Mr. Nice Guy with an AI picture of him holding a battle rifle, I guess. Things blowing up in the background that looks like Iran. Uh so very hard to sort of get a sense of um what's actually going on here. I don't know. Usually markets don't like uncertainty. They seem to have liked it a lot lately. We can talk about that in a minute. But this is the reaction now. Paul, we have a brand new closing high uh here on April 29th, 2026 for Brent. You can see it was a little bit higher at a couple of points here, but it spiked and came right back down. Just got smacked. So it's at 11682 a barrel on this chart. The day is not over yet, so we'll see where it actually closes. But, um, that would be a new high for this move. And then secondarily, we have a brand new closing high on gasoline here in the United States. So, that's interesting. And I just want So, it's 355 here on this chart. Normally, you have to add about a dollar on top of that to get your pump price. That's good rule of thumb. So it' be about 455 nationally average. It's going to be higher in Chicago and California and some other blue locations for reasons. Um but then I just want to point out something. So here we're now looking at a chart that goes back 20 years for gasoline in the US. And the first thing we're going to notice is it hit this same level we're at today back in 2008. Paul, I consider that uh spike in energy prices, gasoline prices back then to have been a a pin that helped to prick the housing bubble back then. It was it it was another stress on on already stressed consumers who who had reached too far with with real estate and all of that. And then we had the 2022 spike here. You remember, you're old enough like me to remember 2022. Stocks and bonds both took it. A very historically unusual move in the markets to see both stocks and bonds take it in the shorts. Both both hemorrhaged badly in 2022. Again, because energy is that is a is an unavoidable stressor to the system. There's you can't print your way around it. There's nothing you can do. It just hurts. And here we are today pretty much, you know, in in the same territory. So, >> Mhm. If we have an extended blockade and if it turns out gasoline prices go higher, it's easy to predict what happens next. Um we're going to we're going to see a lot of economic stress in the US. And uh they just reported a couple hours ago at the time of this recording here on Wednesday the 29th that US gas prices hit a fresh record rising to nationwide average of 423 per gallon. My prediction is well, we're going to set fresh gasoline price records every week for months until that straight opens back up again. >> It sure appears to be that way, you know, and and going back to that 2022 when you had bonds and stocks go down. If I remember correctly, that was the worst performance for bonds and stocks combined in 40 years. And I fully believe and I had told clients I was working with at the time, I believe that that is a a birth pain or a warning or a type and shadow of what we're going to see in the future again. And not knowing what was going to cause that, but you're already starting to see Australian bonds have already breached the 5% level. Rates are starting to climb already where, you know, they're they're in control, but they seem to be sniffing out something completely different than what the equity markets do. So, you know, what are you going to do if you're in a passive 60/40 portfolio and you've got equities that go down 30 or 40 or 50% and you have bonds that go down 20, 30 or 40 or 50%. You're not going to have that that counterbalance that people have relied upon throughout history and their mathematic modeling because this is a completely different environment we find ourselves in. >> Yeah, it it it's going to be a train wreck if this continues. >> Well, it will. And and Paul, we're going to take a quick break, but when we come back, I want to talk about why I'm I'm positive we're going to be seeing much higher gasoline prices going forward, unless something really dramatic happens. We'll be right back. Today's markets are more volatile than ever with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Navigating such environments requires thoughtful, adaptive strategies, not a one-sizefits-all approach. At Peak Financial Investing, our registered investment advisory firm connects clients with experienced wealth managers who focus on active portfolio management. These professionals use evidence-based strategies designed to respond to changing conditions, not outdated formulas, but customized approaches grounded in research, discipline, and risk awareness. We believe in open, informed conversations, including discussing tools like precious metals and diversification as part of a broader financial strategy. Every investor's situation is unique, and our advisers tailor their guidance accordingly. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com today to schedule your free consultation and explore how proactive management can support your financial goals. I'm Dr. Dr. Chris Martinson, proud to work with Peak Financial Investing and my support reflects my professional views. I encourage you to take control of your financial future by making informed decisions. Welcome back everybody. So, uh, Paul, here we got to talk about this first. There was this dramatic fight for $100 in the United States. I have my suspicions about who was cap trying to cap the price at 100 bucks. It's a big round number, but this was just yesterday, April 28th. Today being the 29th at the time of this recording. And you can see here oil, this is the $100 mark line right there. It poked its head up at at 7 in the morning and started to spike up almost 102. Then bang, got smashed back under 100, over 100, under 100, over 100, under, over, under, over, under, capped, over, under. There was this huge battle. They just they just tried so hard and now it's it's breached that it's closing in at 104 at this point. It's got a lot higher to go as far as I'm concerned. >> Mhm. >> And um it it's I mean this has just been oil traders, people who've been in the business 30, 40 years finally coming around to the idea of going someone sure seems to be selling a lot of oil at key moments uh you know in key round numbers. It's just I don't think we have fair markets right now. >> I've actually been shocked by the individuals that I've followed uh the analysts over the years that have absolutely refused. Maybe they'll hint around the edges that there's a hidden hand out there every now and then, but they've never just outright said, you know, clearly in their reports that that there was that hidden hand that was was influencing the markets. And and there's been a lot of discussion about that here recently. And what's interesting is that's a major battle that's really important. We had talked several years ago about gold's major breakout from resistance and and that was just technical kind of emotional thing and then the follow on that we've seen in price on the other side. When you have a breakout of a major major battle line like that, you've got people that are short at that level that have to cover their shorts and and then you're going to have other strategies that are going to pile on that trade. I mean, and a lot of times we have to have confirmation that that battle line is broken because if that battle is successful and and and the the sellers take over, then you're going to see a collapse in that price. The stronger the battle, the greater the move is either way. So, the fact that we've broken out above that right now, you're going to have a lot of momentum traders that are going to come in behind that as well, which will further exacerbate the upside um upside price potential. And this could get pretty ugly, quite frankly. One of the problems, Paul, which we've discussed a lot, but it it can't be repeated too often, is that in a actual market, prices are what set a clearing function between supply and demand. So, if you have a supply problem and you're trying to keep prices down, you're going to have demand that's just too high given the circumstances. And so, I've talked about this and yes, there'll be traders with momentum. There's going to be a lot of technical reasons why money is going to come and go, but I want to talk fundamentally. The prediction was easy to make. I made it weeks ago right here on this program and other places. And I said, look, if the United States holds oil and oil products down low, the rest of the world's going to like sidle right up, fill up ships, and sail away with it. And so, we just got our first read for this past week. API reports their best guess at oil inventories uh right before the uh EIA does and they reported that crude is down 1.8 million barrels. The SPR released 7.1 million barrels, a million barrels a day out of our strategic petroleum reserve or as I like to call it our strategic political reserve. Uh it's being released and sent to the rest of the world and gasoline down 8.5 million barrels. it that is the largest weekly draw of gasoline since this 2021 we had this big storm this winter storm um that uh that closed the refineries down for a minute or two and also distillates which is jet fuel and diesel down 2.6 million barrels. These are big draws. Our inventories are being drained both of crude and products because we kept the price low and people said yeah we'll take that. Uh let's go. This only goes on so long before we see corresponding price increases because when your inventories go down, your prices go up. So, I I'm suggesting that what we need to do is let markets set the price so that supply and demand actually balance each other out. It won't be won't be fun, but it's the only way to make these things actually work and not break. >> Yeah. And we had talked about using the analogy of being able to slow your car, you know, without hitting a wall running at a at a speed, right? You talked about that falling from a building, you hit a stop. The market has to be able to adjust to that. And and the it's going to have much more of a violent reaction. Another bit that I thought was very interesting, I was reading an article this morning. People are watching the Chinese strategic petroleum reserves very closely to see what they're pulling down. And on the last report that I read, they've not even tapped theirs yet at this point. So they're truly keeping those as an emergency reserve on the side and they have tons of reserves. So I think they're humble in their approach. They're being strategic. They're being prudent where in the US it seems our arrogance has led us to believe that, hey, we're going to we're going to paper this over. we're going to pull out of our strategic reserves to help us politically to make everybody feel really good here in the short run for polling or whatever that reason is. And we're just putting ourselves in a weaker and weaker and weaker circumstance. It, you know, it's like, it's like when I run across somebody that has no savings whatsoever and they're living paycheck to paycheck, not out of necessity, but out of choice, right? They're wanting to live this lifestyle higher than they can live and their lifestyle is fragile. Any economic hiccup can cause them to come apart. That's my greatest concern about the fact that we keep drawing these strategic petroleum reserves down because that's our emergency savings as a country to keep things moving. >> Yep. So, I guess the summary of this section is look, uh, oil and gas prices are now moving up finally in the US and and Atlantic basin markets. Prediction is they're going to move up a lot more because why? Well, the straight is still closed down and it doesn't look like the two parties have anything remotely close to what we would call a a a ceasefire agreement ready list of things that they can more or less agree on. And the clock is ticking. We think in the United States apparently that the clock is ticking faster for Iran. They think it's ticking faster for us. I think both sides are just going to play a game of chicken here and we'll see. But I'll bet you, Paul, $5 a gallon national average gasoline is our paying threshold in this story. >> I can see that very clearly, and I'm not taking the other side of that bet, I bet with you. >> Well said. And Paul, we're going to leave it there for today. And so for anybody who wants to talk with Paul and his amazing team, please just go to peakfinancialinvesting.com, fill out a simple form and somebody from Paul's office will be back in touch with you within 48 business hours and you can start the first of three phone calls, an introductory call, a planning call, and then finally a recommendations call goes that far. And if all that checks out and you want to work together, then um that's the process to become uh part of uh Paul's family universe of people that he he helps and treats just like family. So with that, Paul, thanks so much for your time today. >> It's my honor. Good to see you, Chris. >> Bye, everyone. Until next week. Signing off for now.
Market Breakout: Why Things Get Loud Fast After The Move
Summary
Transcript
Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. The stronger the battle, the greater the move is either way. So, the fact that we've broken out above that right now, you're going to have a lot of momentum traders that are going to come in behind that as well, which will further exacerbate the upside price potential, and this could get pretty ugly, quite frankly. Hello everyone and welcome to this episode of FinanceU. I'm your host Chris Martinson back with Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth Management. How you doing today, Paul? >> I'm doing good. Happy Wednesday to you, Chris. Good to see you again. >> Happy Wednesday. We are recording this on Wednesday. It looks like it's April 29th. We have a lot to discuss today, Paul. And we're going to begin with this uh if we can talking about the Iran war of course, but oil and gasoline prices are finally on the rise again. We'll get to that data in just a second, but this is how the Wall Street Journal, this is the main talking point they're spinning right now, which is that uh they say here, quote, "Talks between the US and Iran have stalled." Certainly have. American officials are betting that Iran will soon crack because of the deepening economic crisis. Iran is betting the US will crack first and end its blockade of Iranian ports to calm global markets and bring down American gasoline prices which are on the rise today. They say here, however, but authorities are confronting a level of hardship not seen in decades according to Iranian residents who go unnamed. And they say as well, well, as as the money dries up because of the blockade, we may find more and more folks have no choice but to mobilize politically. So that that Paul is the is the um hope here. They say here, you know, sub headline, Iranians feel the pain as their economy descends into a death spiral. That's a pretty strong piece of language for what's not an editorial. Um this is actually just an article, but that that's the that's the story right now. Iranians are going to buckle because of the economic pressure, and that's really the the story they're running with right now officially. But what if the Iranians don't buckle? What if they're more committed than that? We could easily see this straight of Hooves remain closed for another month, two months, three months. The the economic pain to the rest of the world is going to be extraordinary if that happens. What do you think about about this approach? >> I think it's really interesting, especially with all the headlines coming out about the oil shutins and that's going to destroy their their production capabilities forever. And that's the biggest reason that they're, you know, that the US has the upper hand. Now, I've tried to learn as much as I can. I know you know that. So, you can you can update everybody as far as what the ramifications of the oil shutins and top offs and how they'll lose production. There's differing beliefs on the timeline till we'll reach that from what I understand. But I kind of look at it from an equity market standpoint. The equity markets have gone with the with the speculation. I guess it's in line with what what was it Trump said a couple of days ago. You know, the world is a casino. The markets seem to be acting like a casino and placing their bets at this point that there's no way that we're going to have this continue that somebody's not going to let it happen. Iran's not going to be in a situation to where those shutins would occur. And and if this does occur much longer, right, whether it's further time before they have to to reach that shut in or they don't care, right, because they want the economic impact to ripple across the world, we're going to have some massive compounding effects in the markets uh economically. If if we if we reach that standpoint, the longer this goes on, the the much greater the damage is going to be, and I believe that it sets up for a potential vacuum to the downside in the markets. I do >> after the uh JCPOA collapse happened and also in the context of COVID Iran's oil production got totally shut in for three or four months like was completely shut in and it you know I don't know what damage happened to the reservoirs but they survived that they've survived a lot of things. So, I'm just a little worried that we seem to be having this this this I hope is a terrible strategy, right, for portfolios, but I think also for politics. And maybe they're just giving us one story, but out here it looks that's a hope. We're going to hope that the Iranians rise up against their >> their, you know, overlords. We're going to hope that, you know, the pain that they're experiencing causes this thing we want to have happen. The more direct thing would be to say they need some things, we need some things. We're going to have to negotiate. We won't get everything we want. Maybe they don't get everything they want. But that's how you go forward. Right now, when they say the talks have stalled, the US has 15 things we want and we won't budge on. And they have five or seven things now that they want that they won't budge on, and none of them match, right? >> No. >> So, we're not really at the negotiating stage yet, I don't think. you know that negotiations happen when you start to pull things off of your list and they modify things on their list and pull things off and then you come up with agreed upon set of things >> and we reach that compromise and and the problem is the US is at least acting like we hold all the cards that that we can control this or wipe them out or do whatever and that they're going to crack and you know there are there are unfortunately times where the underdog just refuses to give up. I mean, my grandfather came through the Great Depression. I remember him telling me one time, he said, "Son," he said, he said, "If you get knocked down, keep getting up. If you're getting beat so hard while you're knocked down, as long as you can keep your nose out of the dirt or the water, keep fighting." And and that's, you know, when you have these economies that and these countries where especially those leaders don't want to give up their power, you know, that's my concern is that they're like, "Okay, fine. We'll burn the world down if you're uh before we're going to uh uh before we're going to give in." and just and not have some compromise here. And the US seems like they won't do that. So, we're at a standstill. And there's a lot of and the markets seem to be speculating that that they're going to cave in. I don't know if they will or not, but at this point, they sure haven't. >> Nope, sure haven't. And um accompanying that yesterday uh we found out also from the Wall Street Journal that President Trump has instructed aids to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran targeting the regime's coffers, its its bank accounts in a high risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation. Tran has long refused. Not totally accurate. Uh Tran did sign a document um a nuclear document and that got torn up uh by Trump. So >> okay, >> that was yesterday. This is today. Uh I it's just it's so hard keeping up with Donald Trump. He tweets out today, Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. Don't know what he means by that. They better get smart soon. No more Mr. Nice Guy with an AI picture of him holding a battle rifle, I guess. Things blowing up in the background that looks like Iran. Uh so very hard to sort of get a sense of um what's actually going on here. I don't know. Usually markets don't like uncertainty. They seem to have liked it a lot lately. We can talk about that in a minute. But this is the reaction now. Paul, we have a brand new closing high uh here on April 29th, 2026 for Brent. You can see it was a little bit higher at a couple of points here, but it spiked and came right back down. Just got smacked. So it's at 11682 a barrel on this chart. The day is not over yet, so we'll see where it actually closes. But, um, that would be a new high for this move. And then secondarily, we have a brand new closing high on gasoline here in the United States. So, that's interesting. And I just want So, it's 355 here on this chart. Normally, you have to add about a dollar on top of that to get your pump price. That's good rule of thumb. So it' be about 455 nationally average. It's going to be higher in Chicago and California and some other blue locations for reasons. Um but then I just want to point out something. So here we're now looking at a chart that goes back 20 years for gasoline in the US. And the first thing we're going to notice is it hit this same level we're at today back in 2008. Paul, I consider that uh spike in energy prices, gasoline prices back then to have been a a pin that helped to prick the housing bubble back then. It was it it was another stress on on already stressed consumers who who had reached too far with with real estate and all of that. And then we had the 2022 spike here. You remember, you're old enough like me to remember 2022. Stocks and bonds both took it. A very historically unusual move in the markets to see both stocks and bonds take it in the shorts. Both both hemorrhaged badly in 2022. Again, because energy is that is a is an unavoidable stressor to the system. There's you can't print your way around it. There's nothing you can do. It just hurts. And here we are today pretty much, you know, in in the same territory. So, >> Mhm. If we have an extended blockade and if it turns out gasoline prices go higher, it's easy to predict what happens next. Um we're going to we're going to see a lot of economic stress in the US. And uh they just reported a couple hours ago at the time of this recording here on Wednesday the 29th that US gas prices hit a fresh record rising to nationwide average of 423 per gallon. My prediction is well, we're going to set fresh gasoline price records every week for months until that straight opens back up again. >> It sure appears to be that way, you know, and and going back to that 2022 when you had bonds and stocks go down. If I remember correctly, that was the worst performance for bonds and stocks combined in 40 years. And I fully believe and I had told clients I was working with at the time, I believe that that is a a birth pain or a warning or a type and shadow of what we're going to see in the future again. And not knowing what was going to cause that, but you're already starting to see Australian bonds have already breached the 5% level. Rates are starting to climb already where, you know, they're they're in control, but they seem to be sniffing out something completely different than what the equity markets do. So, you know, what are you going to do if you're in a passive 60/40 portfolio and you've got equities that go down 30 or 40 or 50% and you have bonds that go down 20, 30 or 40 or 50%. You're not going to have that that counterbalance that people have relied upon throughout history and their mathematic modeling because this is a completely different environment we find ourselves in. >> Yeah, it it it's going to be a train wreck if this continues. >> Well, it will. And and Paul, we're going to take a quick break, but when we come back, I want to talk about why I'm I'm positive we're going to be seeing much higher gasoline prices going forward, unless something really dramatic happens. We'll be right back. Today's markets are more volatile than ever with ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Navigating such environments requires thoughtful, adaptive strategies, not a one-sizefits-all approach. At Peak Financial Investing, our registered investment advisory firm connects clients with experienced wealth managers who focus on active portfolio management. These professionals use evidence-based strategies designed to respond to changing conditions, not outdated formulas, but customized approaches grounded in research, discipline, and risk awareness. We believe in open, informed conversations, including discussing tools like precious metals and diversification as part of a broader financial strategy. Every investor's situation is unique, and our advisers tailor their guidance accordingly. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com today to schedule your free consultation and explore how proactive management can support your financial goals. I'm Dr. Dr. Chris Martinson, proud to work with Peak Financial Investing and my support reflects my professional views. I encourage you to take control of your financial future by making informed decisions. Welcome back everybody. So, uh, Paul, here we got to talk about this first. There was this dramatic fight for $100 in the United States. I have my suspicions about who was cap trying to cap the price at 100 bucks. It's a big round number, but this was just yesterday, April 28th. Today being the 29th at the time of this recording. And you can see here oil, this is the $100 mark line right there. It poked its head up at at 7 in the morning and started to spike up almost 102. Then bang, got smashed back under 100, over 100, under 100, over 100, under, over, under, over, under, capped, over, under. There was this huge battle. They just they just tried so hard and now it's it's breached that it's closing in at 104 at this point. It's got a lot higher to go as far as I'm concerned. >> Mhm. >> And um it it's I mean this has just been oil traders, people who've been in the business 30, 40 years finally coming around to the idea of going someone sure seems to be selling a lot of oil at key moments uh you know in key round numbers. It's just I don't think we have fair markets right now. >> I've actually been shocked by the individuals that I've followed uh the analysts over the years that have absolutely refused. Maybe they'll hint around the edges that there's a hidden hand out there every now and then, but they've never just outright said, you know, clearly in their reports that that there was that hidden hand that was was influencing the markets. And and there's been a lot of discussion about that here recently. And what's interesting is that's a major battle that's really important. We had talked several years ago about gold's major breakout from resistance and and that was just technical kind of emotional thing and then the follow on that we've seen in price on the other side. When you have a breakout of a major major battle line like that, you've got people that are short at that level that have to cover their shorts and and then you're going to have other strategies that are going to pile on that trade. I mean, and a lot of times we have to have confirmation that that battle line is broken because if that battle is successful and and and the the sellers take over, then you're going to see a collapse in that price. The stronger the battle, the greater the move is either way. So, the fact that we've broken out above that right now, you're going to have a lot of momentum traders that are going to come in behind that as well, which will further exacerbate the upside um upside price potential. And this could get pretty ugly, quite frankly. One of the problems, Paul, which we've discussed a lot, but it it can't be repeated too often, is that in a actual market, prices are what set a clearing function between supply and demand. So, if you have a supply problem and you're trying to keep prices down, you're going to have demand that's just too high given the circumstances. And so, I've talked about this and yes, there'll be traders with momentum. There's going to be a lot of technical reasons why money is going to come and go, but I want to talk fundamentally. The prediction was easy to make. I made it weeks ago right here on this program and other places. And I said, look, if the United States holds oil and oil products down low, the rest of the world's going to like sidle right up, fill up ships, and sail away with it. And so, we just got our first read for this past week. API reports their best guess at oil inventories uh right before the uh EIA does and they reported that crude is down 1.8 million barrels. The SPR released 7.1 million barrels, a million barrels a day out of our strategic petroleum reserve or as I like to call it our strategic political reserve. Uh it's being released and sent to the rest of the world and gasoline down 8.5 million barrels. it that is the largest weekly draw of gasoline since this 2021 we had this big storm this winter storm um that uh that closed the refineries down for a minute or two and also distillates which is jet fuel and diesel down 2.6 million barrels. These are big draws. Our inventories are being drained both of crude and products because we kept the price low and people said yeah we'll take that. Uh let's go. This only goes on so long before we see corresponding price increases because when your inventories go down, your prices go up. So, I I'm suggesting that what we need to do is let markets set the price so that supply and demand actually balance each other out. It won't be won't be fun, but it's the only way to make these things actually work and not break. >> Yeah. And we had talked about using the analogy of being able to slow your car, you know, without hitting a wall running at a at a speed, right? You talked about that falling from a building, you hit a stop. The market has to be able to adjust to that. And and the it's going to have much more of a violent reaction. Another bit that I thought was very interesting, I was reading an article this morning. People are watching the Chinese strategic petroleum reserves very closely to see what they're pulling down. And on the last report that I read, they've not even tapped theirs yet at this point. So they're truly keeping those as an emergency reserve on the side and they have tons of reserves. So I think they're humble in their approach. They're being strategic. They're being prudent where in the US it seems our arrogance has led us to believe that, hey, we're going to we're going to paper this over. we're going to pull out of our strategic reserves to help us politically to make everybody feel really good here in the short run for polling or whatever that reason is. And we're just putting ourselves in a weaker and weaker and weaker circumstance. It, you know, it's like, it's like when I run across somebody that has no savings whatsoever and they're living paycheck to paycheck, not out of necessity, but out of choice, right? They're wanting to live this lifestyle higher than they can live and their lifestyle is fragile. Any economic hiccup can cause them to come apart. That's my greatest concern about the fact that we keep drawing these strategic petroleum reserves down because that's our emergency savings as a country to keep things moving. >> Yep. So, I guess the summary of this section is look, uh, oil and gas prices are now moving up finally in the US and and Atlantic basin markets. Prediction is they're going to move up a lot more because why? Well, the straight is still closed down and it doesn't look like the two parties have anything remotely close to what we would call a a a ceasefire agreement ready list of things that they can more or less agree on. And the clock is ticking. We think in the United States apparently that the clock is ticking faster for Iran. They think it's ticking faster for us. I think both sides are just going to play a game of chicken here and we'll see. But I'll bet you, Paul, $5 a gallon national average gasoline is our paying threshold in this story. >> I can see that very clearly, and I'm not taking the other side of that bet, I bet with you. >> Well said. And Paul, we're going to leave it there for today. And so for anybody who wants to talk with Paul and his amazing team, please just go to peakfinancialinvesting.com, fill out a simple form and somebody from Paul's office will be back in touch with you within 48 business hours and you can start the first of three phone calls, an introductory call, a planning call, and then finally a recommendations call goes that far. And if all that checks out and you want to work together, then um that's the process to become uh part of uh Paul's family universe of people that he he helps and treats just like family. So with that, Paul, thanks so much for your time today. >> It's my honor. Good to see you, Chris. >> Bye, everyone. Until next week. Signing off for now.