Macro Backdrop: The guest frames a stagflation-like setup with sticky inflation and economic softness, complicated by Middle East tensions and oil price shocks.
Gold/Silver Outlook: He expects a prolonged correction/consolidation in gold and silver but not a structural bear, while warning to assess risks of a 2011-style peak.
Miners' Margins: Despite pullbacks, gold and silver miners still enjoy robust margins; however, margin blowouts never last as energy, steel, and labor costs eventually catch up.
Risk Factors: Elevated diesel and refined product prices (exacerbated by Strait of Hormuz disruptions) may compress Q2 margins, so investors should monitor AISC and bottom-line profitability.
Generalist Flows: After broad interest in 2025, generalists are quiet for now; a renewed price surge or sustained cash generation could bring them back to quality miners.
Actionable Opportunity: He is preparing to buy an oil pullback on any credible peace deal that reopens Hormuz, anticipating a knee-jerk oversold move followed by a V-shaped rebound.
Uranium Thesis: As a follow-on opportunity, he is constructive on uranium given solid supply-demand dynamics and prices still well below prior peaks.
Transcript
Yes, we are in a period of correction and consolidation that could last longer than anybody wants. The longer we go from the peak in 20 uh 26, the January 2026 peak [clears throat] with gold correcting and kind of heading downwards kind of with bumps. It's it's still retreating from that peak. Uh it is not unreasonable to ask if that was like 2011. While the gold price may have corrected about $1,000 from its peak, the miners are producing still at record margins. Look at headline record maximum or record free cash flow. Ma record just cash on hand. Net debt is zero or they don't have any debt anymore. the net cash position yet sentiment in the miners seems to be negative I would say and we need to really connect the macro with the micro today coming back to your original slogan here of sore financially because we need to understand why are the miners reacting so much to headline news meaning inflation fears Fed rate hike fears as well we need to make sense of it why are we so scared that margins might be decreasing while we're looking at about a $3,000 margin per ounce produced right now why are we so so skittish I've invited back Loboiker. He's the independent speculator and he's going to be a keynote at our upcoming Deutsche Gold Messa in Frankfurt in about what is it now 11 days or 10 days actually. I'm really excited to host him in person again in Frankfurt and we'll discuss of course some of the um the questions here in person in Frankfurt as well. Really looking forward to that. If uh you haven't signed up dooldm.com Germanoldshow.com and of course if you haven't done so, hit that like and subscribe button as well because it helps us bring guests like Lobo onto the program. Now, enough said. Lobo, it's great to welcome you back on sore financially. It's good to see you again. >> Good to see you, my friend. >> Yeah, really looking forward to the conversation, Lobo. It's time to go back to the roots. Let's connect the macro with the micro and maybe we'll start setting the scene. Um, let's start maybe perhaps with the inflation narrative and the Fed rate hike narrative as well. What is your current estimate of the inflation to be or what what's your estimate of inflation? Let's start there. I'm not even sure how to phrase that question. [laughter] Well, first and foremost, I get paid to kick rocks. I'm a due diligence guy. So, as always, I have to remind everybody, I'm not an economist. I'm not a professional economist. Um, but maybe in an environment like this, that's not a bad thing because your economics textbooks basically tell you that stagflation isn't possible. Inflation results from a heating economy. So to have still sticky high inflation, high rising inflation in the US and other places and to have economic weakness from you can blame it on the oil shock, the war. Fine, blame it on that if you want. I I still think there are knock-on effects from the COVID lockdowns and all the craziness that was done over the last few years. Uh so you know maybe it takes somebody who isn't a professional economist to just call a spade and spade and say look if you've got economic weakness and you've got sticky high inflation you know walks like a duck quacks like a duck you know maybe it's stagflation and we all know what did well in the last great bout of this add to that sorry I don't want to go on too much about this because I really am not an economist and even less am I a military expert but we can't ignore the straits of hormones and what's going on in the Middle East. And for our metals and mining stock audience, let's focus on one thing. Last year, when gold was screaming up, we saw a breakdown of this knee-jerk reaction we'd seen in the past of, "Oh, anything that looks or smells like higher inflation, oh that's bad for gold because gold doesn't pay interest, so sell gold, right?" Um, and that has returned with the war. And people might say, "Well, gee, what's going on there?" And my take, for what it's worth, is that there's this this facious thinking that, okay, the war means higher oil prices. Higher oil prices mean higher inflation. Gold doesn't pay interest. So, higher inflation will put gold at a disadvantage when central banks raise rates. That mechanism, I think, is completely flawed. It was disproved by last year's market action, if not other episodes. 2004 comes to mind quite clearly. Uh, so it's just not true or at least not always true, but that's a knee-jerk reaction that we're seeing back again with powerful force. And I think this explains some of the answers to your question, Kai come from this. There's people who it just sounds crazy on the face of it. You know, war, how can that be bad for gold, a safe haven asset? Well, this war is sending oil prices higher and hence inflation and hence gold pay, you know, that whole nonsense. So this doesn't this may help us to explain but it doesn't help us time our investment decisions because it tells us that the variable here is when does this stop and I don't think anybody can tell you I don't think even Trump and the and the new supreme leader can tell you uh there's so at odds this could easily drag on for a long time pushing this craziness through the market or one side or the other could cry uncle you never know everybody says right up to the last moment where they tap the mat. Everybody says, "Oh, I'm going to win. I'm not giving up." And then they give up. So, >> it's very dangerous um context to think you know what will happen next. >> It it it is like the question though is like why is gold in particular and silver to to even more is even more volatile reacting to headline news like inflation news like looking at the oil price. Um there's action in the straight of Hormuz all of a sudden oil shoots up let's say to $115 a barrel and gold declines in that in that scenario like help us make sense of it a little bit so we can talk about the miners >> reaction seems to be coming back Kai like it that had disappeared from the market last year and people may have short memories and not remember but before that before 2025 every time there was something that even hinted at higher inflation gold would get whacked. It was silly. It was wrongheaded. You know, we saw gold lead the inflation in 2020 and then, you know, was we had to wait a couple years before the inflation really hit. Um, but this is a this I mean long and variable lags. So, I was going to say this is a triedand- trueue relationship, but it's very hard to chart. If you say, "Oh, well, gold led uh inflation higher in 2020 and and then you know the 9% wasn't until two years later." Well, okay. So, let's offset gold two years from CPI. Well, it doesn't work because it's not just long, it's variable, right? So, you know, so you can't just move it by two years every time. But I do think that if you look back over time, you'll see that gold tends to lead inflation even as mismeasured by CPI and PCE. So, the big surge up over 5,000 that we saw earlier this year, you could just write it off as some kind of manic break, or you could say that gold is telling us something about where inflation is going. And if you think about the wartime levels of deficit spending we had in the United States before the war and now, you know, Trump wants a trillion and a half more for the war department and all. I mean it's not funny but it is you know you have to laugh or cry a bit sometimes some of these things the outlook is is highly inflationary maybe gold let it and maybe that ties into your sentiment question so gold let it now it's correcting consolidating nobody likes that if you're long uh you know it's hard to look at a thousand drop in gold with equinimity but as you pointed out in your opening question you know And actually I think I might have said this in a previous interview with you when when prices were rising. I know I said it in some interviews and sorry if I don't remember specifically I said it with you but I remember when we're looking 5500 5600 I told the audience gold could drop $1,000 an ounce in the actual business of mining the stuff developing mines and even exploring for it. You know at those price levels would either be gushing cash or or portend huge margins. So we can deal with some correction in volatility here. There's no reason to panic if that happens. If anything, we we should look at that as a source of opportunity. So, uh again, not to go on forever, but one more quick point. You know, you've said, well, gee, why are the, you know, why are at these levels, 4500 is a great level for gold, you know, 75 bucks, 80 bucks for silver. I mean, there's a, you know, those mines were designed at sub $20 silver that there's there's no reason to be crying into our beers here. So, what's with the sentiment? Well, first, people like it when things are going up, not down. Um, but B, the stocks haven't really gone down enough. You You're saying, you know, the sentiments turned negative. I'm thinking as a buyer, uh, you know, I I took a lot of profits earlier this year when gold was high. I've got a huge pile of cash that honestly I've never had this much cash in my life. Um, ready to redeploy. But the stocks I I think what we're talking about some of this is obvious enough that even though the stocks have corrected or maybe new underperformed as you're pointing out, but they're not really bargains. They're they're not so cheap that I feel like backing up the truck and redeploying all that cash that I took profits via profits earlier this year. So I'm not sure where you want to quite go from there, but I think the sentiment is in some ways understandable. In some ways, I wish it was more irrational that it had sold off more, right? You know, if $4,500 gold, $75 silver, if the stocks were trading like back at $2,000 gold, you know, I'd be buying with both hands or all four paws as the case may be with a Wolf. And we're not there yet. >> Yeah. Well, you said in our February conversation, I think about the thousand drop in gold and that the miners would still be printing cash and they are. That's what we're seeing. That's what we saw in the Q1 numbers. Uh Newmont is just the example, right? Um, we'll come back to the miners in a second. I just want to put a bow around the gold and silver market real quick because I want to ask you like, are we still in a bull market? >> Huh? My sense for whatever it's worth is that yes, we are in a period of correction and consolidation that could last longer than anybody wants. you know, when gold zoomed up during the pandemic or right after, you know, during the pandemic lockdowns, not the not the initial sc in two 2020, gold goes over 2,000 bucks and then it waffled 10 20% sideways for three years before the next big breakout. Uh, you know, people may not want to hear this, but that's my sentiment for where we at right now. Um, but I got to say the honest answer to your question is the longer we go from the peak in 20 uh 26, the January 2026 peak with gold correcting and kind of heading downwards, not kind of with bumps. It's it's still retreating from that peak. Uh it is not unreasonable to ask if that was like 2011 or 1980. And uh I I've I've shared these thoughts with my paid clients. You're the first time I'm saying this in public for the broader public because you know people are going to throw tomatoes at me. But it is the right thing to do to ask this question. To dig your head into the sand and ignore the possibility that we might have seen a cyclical peak is not helpful. You know, if you ask the question and you answer it, no, I'm sure and for these reasons, okay, fine. At least you ask the question to ignore the question is not helpful for anyone. And here's here's the kicker. If you superimpose the charts of the peak, you know, if you take January 2026 as a peak and you look at it and you compare it to September of 2011 or January of 1980, there are some kind of creepy parallels. Kai, it's kind of scary. the initial really sharp spike, you know, sharp correction and then sort of a shoulder. It comes back, deadcat bounce maybe, then it kind of rolls over and then it, you know, more pumps on the way down. That first part, the spike, the correction, the hump, the roll over. All three of those line up pretty closely. Um, I am not saying therefore I've proven that the peak is in, that this is 2011 all over again. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that the data shows us a pattern that is consistent with past peaks and that makes it prudent to at least ask the question. Now, as I started in my answer, my view for now is still correction consolidation before the next move being higher. But I got to tell you, Kai, I'm really happy I took a bunch of profits earlier this year because if it does turn out that we're headed much lower, then I've got the cash to take advantage of that. Whereas in 2008, I was illquid and I I saw plenty of opportunities. I wrote about them. I was unable to act on them myself. Uh so this time I'm I'm happy to be loaded for bear in two senses of that word. No. Fantastic. No, that's exactly like the answer I'm looking for there, Lobo. Um [clears throat] like we need a little bit of positive reinforcement, right? Um to help us maybe avoid the headlines. Um, I'm just looking here at at charts from Numan for I I keep coming back to Newon because it's a good example because they talked about the maybe I can share that real quick here. Um, in their deck they listed share screen. I had that run up here. So, there we go. Just real quick, they have they are showing um what the assumption is in their deck and the the cost assumptions. They had a better chart. I couldn't find it here. Um, it it's really like people are really worried about margin compression. Like I can understand that margins might not be increasing in Q2. I I get that part. Um if because gold is lower than it is now on average in Q1. So I get that part. But we're not seeing, let's say, drastic margin compression, right? Um >> well, not not yet. Sorry, I got a rain on this parade, too. Maybe I should get my get my Darth silver mask out here, you know? >> There. >> Um but okay. I mean, we we shut down the Straits of Hormuz. We all know that energy is a huge input for many gold mines and and Newmont's big and they've got I'm sure somewhere in their portfolio they've got a mine running on hydro power or mostly right it's not but you know most of your fleet of vehicles is still diesel burning even though there are some electric and many remote mines run on gen sets that burn diesel as well. So it's not just energy in general or you know this amorphic vague energy idea. It's oil you know products specifically diesel specifically which the refined products are where we're actually feeling the pinch right now more than the crude oil. But to to address this question straight on, okay, we shut down the straits of Hormuz, the spiggots of of oil from that vital market only 20% but still that's you know prices are determined to the margin that's important gets cut off but all those ships continue sailing that already got through. We are now at the point where the last ships that sailed before the shutdown have arrived and unloaded their cargos. So and and then also we had these SPR releases, the strategic political reserve releases from you know oil stocks not just in the US but around the world. So there was an immediate rush to offset the harm being done by the shutdown. Can't do that forever, right? You know every reserve has its bottom. The last ships have delivered their cargos. We are now at the point right now and this was actually the title of of yesterday's edition of my take. You know rubber meet road. We are at that point where the rubber hits the road now. The shortages get worse now. The last ships are done. That that impact there's no more sheltering the market from that connecting the specifically to the miners during Q1. Despite the war, you know, those ships were still arriving. Cargos were still being unloaded. SPRs were still being discouraged. With that done, we should, you know, other things being equal. We should see much higher energy costs in Q2 than we saw in Q1. And that should affect affect margins. That aside, just inflation in general eats margins. So, you know, we we like to think about a commodity super cycle, but if you believe in that idea, that means that your costs are going to catch up with your topline whenever any of your favorite metals soar. Your input costs consume raw materials as well. not just the energy, but the steel and the rubber for the tires and all that. So, your costs always catch up. These these huge gaps where where margins open wide, they never last forever. And I'm not poo pooing it. They that's a real thing. They do happen and they can last for a couple years and you can make a ton of money in that space. I mean, I just did. But then the jaws in the chart close. The costs always catch up. And sorry, one, this might seem a little bit off the side topic, but I think this is a really important point that people forget or are actively misled not to look at, and that is cost catching up means that you don't adjust your feasibility study to spot markets because the cost will catch up. Like everything right now in gold, silver, copper, even looks great on paper because you're you're at or near record prices at least nominally. And so the studies look great, you know, oh 100% irr, 90% irr, they all look great, but they're not moving the cost up to where this will be life of mine. Like right now, the margins are blown out. 10 years from now, how much will the costs have caught up with your top line? So you still need reasonable price assumptions in your feasibility studies and you need aggressive cost, especially energy under current circumstances assumptions going forward. So I I don't think the market is wrong or investors are wrong for fearing margin compression. I mean it's great we got a margin blowout but they don't last. So you I'm not saying that you know that that the sector is done and don't invest. I'm saying a company that has great margins going into this will have probably great margins coming out of it. And a company that had crappy margins going into this, that's a technical term. you know, the margins will look better for a little while, but then it'll go back to being a crappy mind or minor. So, I just warn people, you know, this is Lobo's dictim. My my principle is crap is crap, right? [laughter] >> I'm a simple wolf. Crap is crap. >> Well, you're absolutely you're absolutely right. So, I I I fully agree on what what you're saying. The question is the time frame. Like, we've got let's look at it. We got about $3,000 worth of margin. Like, how high does the oil price have to go? Plus, let's say the anciliary costs like the the famous butterfly effect like let's say oil goes oil goes to $200 a barrel and the shortages happen. We also need labor cost increases and things like that. How how long will that take to catch up to the price of gold? So, I fully agree that there's a margin blowout right now that there is a $3,000 gap that has grown probably too quickly perhaps um in a certain way. But uh I I disagree on the timing because you you in my opinion you make it sound like it's it might be nearer or sooner rather than later. And I fully agree that uh you know turrets like rising tide lifts all boats, right? Um and and turrets float at the top as well. And there's still a lot of turrets that are being saved by high gold prices right now and the cost will eventually catch up with them. So I get your message. I fully get it. The question is timing though and when should we be cautious and when should we be maybe throwing the baby out with a bathwater here and that's what I'm trying to like sort of I >> hear you separate right so long >> here would prove that right there's there's no way we can prove how long it will be it would just be an estimate and you're perfectly welcome to have a different estimate than I and by the way I didn't put out a specific estimate I said they typically last the widening of the margin typically lasts a couple years >> um and And you know, we we could go back and forth on that. Congratulations for disagreeing with me. It gets very boring these conversations where the commentator either doesn't respond to what you say or just agrees with everything you say. Uh but I I think maybe the takeaway here is again I'm not trying to tell everybody sell everything the sector has done. I'm just trying to be a counterbalance to the cheerleaders out there that are like, oh, you know, woohoo, you know, $4,500 gold, you can't lose. is you bye bye bye. You know that that is never sound guidance in my view. >> No, no, you're and and you're absolutely right on that part as as well because as I said like the turds are still turds just maybe sprinkles on them now, right? So um you got to still be aware of what the turds are where the turds are, right? Um maybe coming back like is there a certain metric we should be paying attention to? Is it just all in sustaining cost or should we is are there other metrics that are important to track while uh we watch the margin perhaps shrink here? you know that that's fair enough. Uh at the end of the day, I mean it gets complicated to me. At the end of the day, the bottom line should never be ignored. And you can say, "Oh, well, we're spending more on capex for to secure future growth." Fine. That's a good reason. But suppose you do that and then margins compress and now that capex you spent was was not so wisely spent. So I I would just Yeah. The margin margin compression is what we're worried about. AISC is is a feed in, but don't forget the bottom line. And if you know, whatever the story you tell the market, if you are a gold miner and you can't deliver a profit at $4,500 gold, I don't care what your growth targets are. That's not okay. You know, you have to be doing something wrong if you can't deliver a profit in this market. Similarly, a silver producer who can't deliver a profit at, you know, 75, even 70 or, you know, let alone 80 or whatever. We've been vacasillating in this range for a while. If you can't deliver a profit in this market, sorry, that's not a stock I want to own. >> No, exactly. Like, if you can't make money at $4,800 and $75 silver, yeah, no, get out of here. Absolutely. Um, Lobo, like I I've been hearing a lot about generalists coming back into the sector. Um, I haven't really seen it on a broad basis, but I'm seeing like a little little inklinks here. Um, I keep using a reference because when I started in the industry back in 2011, I remember a lot of companies went marketing to Boston to the insurance companies. I've only last week, I think, I heard a company go out to Boston again to market. So, um, what what attracts the the generalists, the big journalists like the insurance companies to our sector? And are we at a point where it's of interest yet? And will we ever reach that point again? >> [laughter] >> Well, good news and bad news. I I really think that 2025 [snorts] put that on the radar for a lot of people. I don't know about insurance companies, but gold became the crowded trade in the latter half of 2025. And Wall Street was all over it. and the talking heads, even if the the uh announcer dudes on whatever financial channel you're watching, didn't ask about it. The the hedge fund managers and other guests they would have on, they would either highlight gold as an important part of their move or say what their main strategy was, Nvidia or whatever it was, and then say, "Oh, and we're also hedging with a bit of gold." It was it was an idea whose time had come. You know, everybody was happy to be saying, you know, claiming, "Oh, I'm a gold bull. I've been a global for years, you know, in 2025 that was easy to say. Now kind of crickets out there. So the good news is that that was kind of proof of concept. If it could happen in 2025, it can happen again. The bad news is, you know, these kind of Johnny come lately fair weather friends. Well, we need that fair weather to come back. So, as long as we're in correction and consolidation mode, I think we're unlikely to see broader retail pile in. But the moment it gets hot again, and you know, if there's there, you know, >> sorry to jump in a little. Are you talking gold or miners? >> Yeah. No, gold. Gold specific >> because I I was asking more about the miners, right? >> Miners go to the min. Okay. Well, >> it is possible if Mr. market were unusually rational for you know let's say gold and silver waffle sideways for the next two years plus the way they did after the 2020 surge for for for the thorium out there in the broader markets that would be boring that would be bad but as we were just discussing even with some margin compression there would still be great margins compared to the where they were before you know if you've got a silver mine built with $20 silver in mind and it and the margin you was 4x at at um $80 and now it's let's say it goes down to 60. Well, it's still 3x, right? [laughter] It's not as it's not 4x like at 80, but it's still three. It's still huge. So, if we if we continue in this period of consolidation and you there's no major breakdown. It doesn't really break down from here, but we just waffle sideways. At some point, the rational investor will look at these miners that are almost literally printing cash. If you're if you're mining gold and silver, you are pulling real money out of the ground, right? And if your margins are good and and this even has I like to say it has a Warren Buffett stamp of approval, not in his buyin, but in his in his one of his major investment requirements is a moat. In mining has a very natural moat. It takes years to make a discovery and then even when you have one, you got to get it permitted and you got to get the financing. You got to build the mine. Even if you had a shovel ready mine ready to go to jump on high prices today, it would still take you in most cases around two years to build that mine. So there's a argument to be made here that nothing needs to happen. If the market just goes sideways, conditions more or less persist the way they are now for a couple years, the better companies will be just printing cash, rewarding shareholders, and the rational investor should see that. Even a Warren Buffett should be able to see something like that. I get it and that could happen. I'm not poo pooing it necessarily, but I got to ask the question, you know, how often is Mr. Market rational? It just seems like if things aren't going up, you know, people are not as interested. So, be aware of that. Personally, I'm looking for opportunities to buy low this year. And if I don't get that in gold and silver, I'm likely to get it in copper or uranium or or oil. You know, when peace breaks out, oil is likely to to crater in a big way despite the enduring disruptions. And I would see that as an opportunity. So, we've we focused a lot in this conversation on gold and silver. And I understand why, but I'm just reminding investors out there or speculators that it it doesn't have to be all eggs in one basket. And we all know darn well it probably shouldn't be, right? So, buy low, sell high. If you don't have an opportunity to buy low in in your favorite commodity, maybe consider looking at something else. >> No, fair enough. Like you sort of touched on my next question. I was going to ask you where do you see the biggest riskreward uh right now? Um maybe I I'll specify a bit more maybe producers, developers, explorers. Um where in the cycle are we? Have we reached explorers yet or has the cycle reached the explorers yet? Truly, >> it did in 2025. I mean there and that even included some explorers that were just doing that I've fallen and I can't get up thing just flatline for years despite higher gold gold dollar exchange rate I like to call it rather than the gold price. Uh but in 25 many of those even got up off the mat and and by the way that was a litmus test. If you had a gold stock that didn't respond to the surge in 2025 that's not a quality stock. That's probably not one that you want in your portfolio. Um, but I'm looking at it now to answer your question, not so much in terms of type of company, majors, mid-tiers, developers, juniors. I'm looking at it in terms of commodity. Uh, if I forward-looking statement here, you know, I just said I'm not a military expert. I don't know what's going to end this war, but it seems very likely to me that the US will want some kind of resolution to this war uh as soon as possible because there's an election coming up and the war is not helping. You know, ton of conversation we don't need to get into about that, but it's yeah, I don't know when the war is going to end, but it but it seems likely to me that there will be some kind of off-ramp somewhere soonish, next month or two, something like that. And when that and we've already seen that whenever Trump tweets something about you know peace negotiations or there you know Iran wants a deal or whatever oil drops it doesn't nothing actually has to happen just the tweet pushes oil down two three four 5% just on a tweet so imagine what'll happen to oil when there actually is a deal when there act you know there's there's an agreement and the fighting really stops and the straight of hormuz opens up again um I think we will a tremendous buying opportunity. There will be a knee-jerk reaction negative in oil. So, you asked where's the opportunity I'm looking for? This is very specifically the near-term opportunity I'm looking for. I expect an oversold condition temporarily oversold overreaction condition in oil whenever that peace deal is announced. by the way, whether it holds or not, even just getting to that deal, I think we'll see oil oversell and that will completely ignore the long-term cost and getting back to normal, which could take months or years. And so, I I I would expect a V-shaped buying opportunity, and I have a lot of cash that I'm looking forward to deploying that. The next best opportunity after that is probably uranium. Unlike copper, gold or silver, it's not so or or even oil. It's not so close to its highs. It It's It's elevated over lows, but it's well below $140 a pound, not even adjusted for inflation of previous highs. Uh and the supply and demand constraints there are very solid. I like uranium a lot as is. >> No, fantastic. Look, we will continue this conversation in Frankfurt. Can't wait to do this in person. It'll be absolutely fantastic. Really, really looking forward to it. It'll be one of my highlights. I think you're even the last keynote speaker, so we saved the best for last. >> I should bring my helmet because I'm pretty sure if I say anything like we just talked about today, I'm going to get Rotten Tomatoes. [laughter] >> No, we'll make sure that the buffet is cleared by then. So, it should should be all right. >> What are friends for? [snorts] >> Absolutely. No, no, we'll make sure that there's nothing to throw. We We're not like We're not going to go there, but we're not going to leave bricks on the side of the street for people to pick up and bring with them. Right. So, DGM branded bricks. That'd be something. Um, no. Oh, fantastic. Lobo, we always enjoy having this conversation with you. Can't wait to see you in Frankfurt. In the in the meantime, I know it's kind of a rhetorical question, but now where where can our audience find more of your work? >> independent speculator.com. As always, I like to say there's a free weekly letter. Easy sell. Don't have to pay anything. And the I can't promise you'll like my bearishness or reasonableness. Take your point. Uh but what I can promise is that you will not get a flood of spam. I I hate that you get one email notification a week when we publish and then based on my work you can decide whether or not my my paid services might be of value to you. >> Fantastic. Lobo, thank you so much for your time. Great pleasure to chat as always. See you in Frankfurt. Safe travels and uh mascot. See you then. And uh everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Tremendously appreciate you watching so financially. Love the conversations with Lobo every single time. We'll have to do a Fed live conversation again here in the near future because we'll have a new Fed president to comment on very soon as well. So, that should be fun. And uh if you haven't done so, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we really really appreciate it. Our goal is still to reach 100,000 subscribers and we'll take it from there. Uh much appreciate the support. Hope this was valuable. Thanks so much and I'll see you all in Frankfurt on uh next Friday. Take care out there.
GOLD Supercycle or 2026 Top? | Lobo Tiggre
Summary
Transcript
Yes, we are in a period of correction and consolidation that could last longer than anybody wants. The longer we go from the peak in 20 uh 26, the January 2026 peak [clears throat] with gold correcting and kind of heading downwards kind of with bumps. It's it's still retreating from that peak. Uh it is not unreasonable to ask if that was like 2011. While the gold price may have corrected about $1,000 from its peak, the miners are producing still at record margins. Look at headline record maximum or record free cash flow. Ma record just cash on hand. Net debt is zero or they don't have any debt anymore. the net cash position yet sentiment in the miners seems to be negative I would say and we need to really connect the macro with the micro today coming back to your original slogan here of sore financially because we need to understand why are the miners reacting so much to headline news meaning inflation fears Fed rate hike fears as well we need to make sense of it why are we so scared that margins might be decreasing while we're looking at about a $3,000 margin per ounce produced right now why are we so so skittish I've invited back Loboiker. He's the independent speculator and he's going to be a keynote at our upcoming Deutsche Gold Messa in Frankfurt in about what is it now 11 days or 10 days actually. I'm really excited to host him in person again in Frankfurt and we'll discuss of course some of the um the questions here in person in Frankfurt as well. Really looking forward to that. If uh you haven't signed up dooldm.com Germanoldshow.com and of course if you haven't done so, hit that like and subscribe button as well because it helps us bring guests like Lobo onto the program. Now, enough said. Lobo, it's great to welcome you back on sore financially. It's good to see you again. >> Good to see you, my friend. >> Yeah, really looking forward to the conversation, Lobo. It's time to go back to the roots. Let's connect the macro with the micro and maybe we'll start setting the scene. Um, let's start maybe perhaps with the inflation narrative and the Fed rate hike narrative as well. What is your current estimate of the inflation to be or what what's your estimate of inflation? Let's start there. I'm not even sure how to phrase that question. [laughter] Well, first and foremost, I get paid to kick rocks. I'm a due diligence guy. So, as always, I have to remind everybody, I'm not an economist. I'm not a professional economist. Um, but maybe in an environment like this, that's not a bad thing because your economics textbooks basically tell you that stagflation isn't possible. Inflation results from a heating economy. So to have still sticky high inflation, high rising inflation in the US and other places and to have economic weakness from you can blame it on the oil shock, the war. Fine, blame it on that if you want. I I still think there are knock-on effects from the COVID lockdowns and all the craziness that was done over the last few years. Uh so you know maybe it takes somebody who isn't a professional economist to just call a spade and spade and say look if you've got economic weakness and you've got sticky high inflation you know walks like a duck quacks like a duck you know maybe it's stagflation and we all know what did well in the last great bout of this add to that sorry I don't want to go on too much about this because I really am not an economist and even less am I a military expert but we can't ignore the straits of hormones and what's going on in the Middle East. And for our metals and mining stock audience, let's focus on one thing. Last year, when gold was screaming up, we saw a breakdown of this knee-jerk reaction we'd seen in the past of, "Oh, anything that looks or smells like higher inflation, oh that's bad for gold because gold doesn't pay interest, so sell gold, right?" Um, and that has returned with the war. And people might say, "Well, gee, what's going on there?" And my take, for what it's worth, is that there's this this facious thinking that, okay, the war means higher oil prices. Higher oil prices mean higher inflation. Gold doesn't pay interest. So, higher inflation will put gold at a disadvantage when central banks raise rates. That mechanism, I think, is completely flawed. It was disproved by last year's market action, if not other episodes. 2004 comes to mind quite clearly. Uh, so it's just not true or at least not always true, but that's a knee-jerk reaction that we're seeing back again with powerful force. And I think this explains some of the answers to your question, Kai come from this. There's people who it just sounds crazy on the face of it. You know, war, how can that be bad for gold, a safe haven asset? Well, this war is sending oil prices higher and hence inflation and hence gold pay, you know, that whole nonsense. So this doesn't this may help us to explain but it doesn't help us time our investment decisions because it tells us that the variable here is when does this stop and I don't think anybody can tell you I don't think even Trump and the and the new supreme leader can tell you uh there's so at odds this could easily drag on for a long time pushing this craziness through the market or one side or the other could cry uncle you never know everybody says right up to the last moment where they tap the mat. Everybody says, "Oh, I'm going to win. I'm not giving up." And then they give up. So, >> it's very dangerous um context to think you know what will happen next. >> It it it is like the question though is like why is gold in particular and silver to to even more is even more volatile reacting to headline news like inflation news like looking at the oil price. Um there's action in the straight of Hormuz all of a sudden oil shoots up let's say to $115 a barrel and gold declines in that in that scenario like help us make sense of it a little bit so we can talk about the miners >> reaction seems to be coming back Kai like it that had disappeared from the market last year and people may have short memories and not remember but before that before 2025 every time there was something that even hinted at higher inflation gold would get whacked. It was silly. It was wrongheaded. You know, we saw gold lead the inflation in 2020 and then, you know, was we had to wait a couple years before the inflation really hit. Um, but this is a this I mean long and variable lags. So, I was going to say this is a triedand- trueue relationship, but it's very hard to chart. If you say, "Oh, well, gold led uh inflation higher in 2020 and and then you know the 9% wasn't until two years later." Well, okay. So, let's offset gold two years from CPI. Well, it doesn't work because it's not just long, it's variable, right? So, you know, so you can't just move it by two years every time. But I do think that if you look back over time, you'll see that gold tends to lead inflation even as mismeasured by CPI and PCE. So, the big surge up over 5,000 that we saw earlier this year, you could just write it off as some kind of manic break, or you could say that gold is telling us something about where inflation is going. And if you think about the wartime levels of deficit spending we had in the United States before the war and now, you know, Trump wants a trillion and a half more for the war department and all. I mean it's not funny but it is you know you have to laugh or cry a bit sometimes some of these things the outlook is is highly inflationary maybe gold let it and maybe that ties into your sentiment question so gold let it now it's correcting consolidating nobody likes that if you're long uh you know it's hard to look at a thousand drop in gold with equinimity but as you pointed out in your opening question you know And actually I think I might have said this in a previous interview with you when when prices were rising. I know I said it in some interviews and sorry if I don't remember specifically I said it with you but I remember when we're looking 5500 5600 I told the audience gold could drop $1,000 an ounce in the actual business of mining the stuff developing mines and even exploring for it. You know at those price levels would either be gushing cash or or portend huge margins. So we can deal with some correction in volatility here. There's no reason to panic if that happens. If anything, we we should look at that as a source of opportunity. So, uh again, not to go on forever, but one more quick point. You know, you've said, well, gee, why are the, you know, why are at these levels, 4500 is a great level for gold, you know, 75 bucks, 80 bucks for silver. I mean, there's a, you know, those mines were designed at sub $20 silver that there's there's no reason to be crying into our beers here. So, what's with the sentiment? Well, first, people like it when things are going up, not down. Um, but B, the stocks haven't really gone down enough. You You're saying, you know, the sentiments turned negative. I'm thinking as a buyer, uh, you know, I I took a lot of profits earlier this year when gold was high. I've got a huge pile of cash that honestly I've never had this much cash in my life. Um, ready to redeploy. But the stocks I I think what we're talking about some of this is obvious enough that even though the stocks have corrected or maybe new underperformed as you're pointing out, but they're not really bargains. They're they're not so cheap that I feel like backing up the truck and redeploying all that cash that I took profits via profits earlier this year. So I'm not sure where you want to quite go from there, but I think the sentiment is in some ways understandable. In some ways, I wish it was more irrational that it had sold off more, right? You know, if $4,500 gold, $75 silver, if the stocks were trading like back at $2,000 gold, you know, I'd be buying with both hands or all four paws as the case may be with a Wolf. And we're not there yet. >> Yeah. Well, you said in our February conversation, I think about the thousand drop in gold and that the miners would still be printing cash and they are. That's what we're seeing. That's what we saw in the Q1 numbers. Uh Newmont is just the example, right? Um, we'll come back to the miners in a second. I just want to put a bow around the gold and silver market real quick because I want to ask you like, are we still in a bull market? >> Huh? My sense for whatever it's worth is that yes, we are in a period of correction and consolidation that could last longer than anybody wants. you know, when gold zoomed up during the pandemic or right after, you know, during the pandemic lockdowns, not the not the initial sc in two 2020, gold goes over 2,000 bucks and then it waffled 10 20% sideways for three years before the next big breakout. Uh, you know, people may not want to hear this, but that's my sentiment for where we at right now. Um, but I got to say the honest answer to your question is the longer we go from the peak in 20 uh 26, the January 2026 peak with gold correcting and kind of heading downwards, not kind of with bumps. It's it's still retreating from that peak. Uh it is not unreasonable to ask if that was like 2011 or 1980. And uh I I've I've shared these thoughts with my paid clients. You're the first time I'm saying this in public for the broader public because you know people are going to throw tomatoes at me. But it is the right thing to do to ask this question. To dig your head into the sand and ignore the possibility that we might have seen a cyclical peak is not helpful. You know, if you ask the question and you answer it, no, I'm sure and for these reasons, okay, fine. At least you ask the question to ignore the question is not helpful for anyone. And here's here's the kicker. If you superimpose the charts of the peak, you know, if you take January 2026 as a peak and you look at it and you compare it to September of 2011 or January of 1980, there are some kind of creepy parallels. Kai, it's kind of scary. the initial really sharp spike, you know, sharp correction and then sort of a shoulder. It comes back, deadcat bounce maybe, then it kind of rolls over and then it, you know, more pumps on the way down. That first part, the spike, the correction, the hump, the roll over. All three of those line up pretty closely. Um, I am not saying therefore I've proven that the peak is in, that this is 2011 all over again. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that the data shows us a pattern that is consistent with past peaks and that makes it prudent to at least ask the question. Now, as I started in my answer, my view for now is still correction consolidation before the next move being higher. But I got to tell you, Kai, I'm really happy I took a bunch of profits earlier this year because if it does turn out that we're headed much lower, then I've got the cash to take advantage of that. Whereas in 2008, I was illquid and I I saw plenty of opportunities. I wrote about them. I was unable to act on them myself. Uh so this time I'm I'm happy to be loaded for bear in two senses of that word. No. Fantastic. No, that's exactly like the answer I'm looking for there, Lobo. Um [clears throat] like we need a little bit of positive reinforcement, right? Um to help us maybe avoid the headlines. Um, I'm just looking here at at charts from Numan for I I keep coming back to Newon because it's a good example because they talked about the maybe I can share that real quick here. Um, in their deck they listed share screen. I had that run up here. So, there we go. Just real quick, they have they are showing um what the assumption is in their deck and the the cost assumptions. They had a better chart. I couldn't find it here. Um, it it's really like people are really worried about margin compression. Like I can understand that margins might not be increasing in Q2. I I get that part. Um if because gold is lower than it is now on average in Q1. So I get that part. But we're not seeing, let's say, drastic margin compression, right? Um >> well, not not yet. Sorry, I got a rain on this parade, too. Maybe I should get my get my Darth silver mask out here, you know? >> There. >> Um but okay. I mean, we we shut down the Straits of Hormuz. We all know that energy is a huge input for many gold mines and and Newmont's big and they've got I'm sure somewhere in their portfolio they've got a mine running on hydro power or mostly right it's not but you know most of your fleet of vehicles is still diesel burning even though there are some electric and many remote mines run on gen sets that burn diesel as well. So it's not just energy in general or you know this amorphic vague energy idea. It's oil you know products specifically diesel specifically which the refined products are where we're actually feeling the pinch right now more than the crude oil. But to to address this question straight on, okay, we shut down the straits of Hormuz, the spiggots of of oil from that vital market only 20% but still that's you know prices are determined to the margin that's important gets cut off but all those ships continue sailing that already got through. We are now at the point where the last ships that sailed before the shutdown have arrived and unloaded their cargos. So and and then also we had these SPR releases, the strategic political reserve releases from you know oil stocks not just in the US but around the world. So there was an immediate rush to offset the harm being done by the shutdown. Can't do that forever, right? You know every reserve has its bottom. The last ships have delivered their cargos. We are now at the point right now and this was actually the title of of yesterday's edition of my take. You know rubber meet road. We are at that point where the rubber hits the road now. The shortages get worse now. The last ships are done. That that impact there's no more sheltering the market from that connecting the specifically to the miners during Q1. Despite the war, you know, those ships were still arriving. Cargos were still being unloaded. SPRs were still being discouraged. With that done, we should, you know, other things being equal. We should see much higher energy costs in Q2 than we saw in Q1. And that should affect affect margins. That aside, just inflation in general eats margins. So, you know, we we like to think about a commodity super cycle, but if you believe in that idea, that means that your costs are going to catch up with your topline whenever any of your favorite metals soar. Your input costs consume raw materials as well. not just the energy, but the steel and the rubber for the tires and all that. So, your costs always catch up. These these huge gaps where where margins open wide, they never last forever. And I'm not poo pooing it. They that's a real thing. They do happen and they can last for a couple years and you can make a ton of money in that space. I mean, I just did. But then the jaws in the chart close. The costs always catch up. And sorry, one, this might seem a little bit off the side topic, but I think this is a really important point that people forget or are actively misled not to look at, and that is cost catching up means that you don't adjust your feasibility study to spot markets because the cost will catch up. Like everything right now in gold, silver, copper, even looks great on paper because you're you're at or near record prices at least nominally. And so the studies look great, you know, oh 100% irr, 90% irr, they all look great, but they're not moving the cost up to where this will be life of mine. Like right now, the margins are blown out. 10 years from now, how much will the costs have caught up with your top line? So you still need reasonable price assumptions in your feasibility studies and you need aggressive cost, especially energy under current circumstances assumptions going forward. So I I don't think the market is wrong or investors are wrong for fearing margin compression. I mean it's great we got a margin blowout but they don't last. So you I'm not saying that you know that that the sector is done and don't invest. I'm saying a company that has great margins going into this will have probably great margins coming out of it. And a company that had crappy margins going into this, that's a technical term. you know, the margins will look better for a little while, but then it'll go back to being a crappy mind or minor. So, I just warn people, you know, this is Lobo's dictim. My my principle is crap is crap, right? [laughter] >> I'm a simple wolf. Crap is crap. >> Well, you're absolutely you're absolutely right. So, I I I fully agree on what what you're saying. The question is the time frame. Like, we've got let's look at it. We got about $3,000 worth of margin. Like, how high does the oil price have to go? Plus, let's say the anciliary costs like the the famous butterfly effect like let's say oil goes oil goes to $200 a barrel and the shortages happen. We also need labor cost increases and things like that. How how long will that take to catch up to the price of gold? So, I fully agree that there's a margin blowout right now that there is a $3,000 gap that has grown probably too quickly perhaps um in a certain way. But uh I I disagree on the timing because you you in my opinion you make it sound like it's it might be nearer or sooner rather than later. And I fully agree that uh you know turrets like rising tide lifts all boats, right? Um and and turrets float at the top as well. And there's still a lot of turrets that are being saved by high gold prices right now and the cost will eventually catch up with them. So I get your message. I fully get it. The question is timing though and when should we be cautious and when should we be maybe throwing the baby out with a bathwater here and that's what I'm trying to like sort of I >> hear you separate right so long >> here would prove that right there's there's no way we can prove how long it will be it would just be an estimate and you're perfectly welcome to have a different estimate than I and by the way I didn't put out a specific estimate I said they typically last the widening of the margin typically lasts a couple years >> um and And you know, we we could go back and forth on that. Congratulations for disagreeing with me. It gets very boring these conversations where the commentator either doesn't respond to what you say or just agrees with everything you say. Uh but I I think maybe the takeaway here is again I'm not trying to tell everybody sell everything the sector has done. I'm just trying to be a counterbalance to the cheerleaders out there that are like, oh, you know, woohoo, you know, $4,500 gold, you can't lose. is you bye bye bye. You know that that is never sound guidance in my view. >> No, no, you're and and you're absolutely right on that part as as well because as I said like the turds are still turds just maybe sprinkles on them now, right? So um you got to still be aware of what the turds are where the turds are, right? Um maybe coming back like is there a certain metric we should be paying attention to? Is it just all in sustaining cost or should we is are there other metrics that are important to track while uh we watch the margin perhaps shrink here? you know that that's fair enough. Uh at the end of the day, I mean it gets complicated to me. At the end of the day, the bottom line should never be ignored. And you can say, "Oh, well, we're spending more on capex for to secure future growth." Fine. That's a good reason. But suppose you do that and then margins compress and now that capex you spent was was not so wisely spent. So I I would just Yeah. The margin margin compression is what we're worried about. AISC is is a feed in, but don't forget the bottom line. And if you know, whatever the story you tell the market, if you are a gold miner and you can't deliver a profit at $4,500 gold, I don't care what your growth targets are. That's not okay. You know, you have to be doing something wrong if you can't deliver a profit in this market. Similarly, a silver producer who can't deliver a profit at, you know, 75, even 70 or, you know, let alone 80 or whatever. We've been vacasillating in this range for a while. If you can't deliver a profit in this market, sorry, that's not a stock I want to own. >> No, exactly. Like, if you can't make money at $4,800 and $75 silver, yeah, no, get out of here. Absolutely. Um, Lobo, like I I've been hearing a lot about generalists coming back into the sector. Um, I haven't really seen it on a broad basis, but I'm seeing like a little little inklinks here. Um, I keep using a reference because when I started in the industry back in 2011, I remember a lot of companies went marketing to Boston to the insurance companies. I've only last week, I think, I heard a company go out to Boston again to market. So, um, what what attracts the the generalists, the big journalists like the insurance companies to our sector? And are we at a point where it's of interest yet? And will we ever reach that point again? >> [laughter] >> Well, good news and bad news. I I really think that 2025 [snorts] put that on the radar for a lot of people. I don't know about insurance companies, but gold became the crowded trade in the latter half of 2025. And Wall Street was all over it. and the talking heads, even if the the uh announcer dudes on whatever financial channel you're watching, didn't ask about it. The the hedge fund managers and other guests they would have on, they would either highlight gold as an important part of their move or say what their main strategy was, Nvidia or whatever it was, and then say, "Oh, and we're also hedging with a bit of gold." It was it was an idea whose time had come. You know, everybody was happy to be saying, you know, claiming, "Oh, I'm a gold bull. I've been a global for years, you know, in 2025 that was easy to say. Now kind of crickets out there. So the good news is that that was kind of proof of concept. If it could happen in 2025, it can happen again. The bad news is, you know, these kind of Johnny come lately fair weather friends. Well, we need that fair weather to come back. So, as long as we're in correction and consolidation mode, I think we're unlikely to see broader retail pile in. But the moment it gets hot again, and you know, if there's there, you know, >> sorry to jump in a little. Are you talking gold or miners? >> Yeah. No, gold. Gold specific >> because I I was asking more about the miners, right? >> Miners go to the min. Okay. Well, >> it is possible if Mr. market were unusually rational for you know let's say gold and silver waffle sideways for the next two years plus the way they did after the 2020 surge for for for the thorium out there in the broader markets that would be boring that would be bad but as we were just discussing even with some margin compression there would still be great margins compared to the where they were before you know if you've got a silver mine built with $20 silver in mind and it and the margin you was 4x at at um $80 and now it's let's say it goes down to 60. Well, it's still 3x, right? [laughter] It's not as it's not 4x like at 80, but it's still three. It's still huge. So, if we if we continue in this period of consolidation and you there's no major breakdown. It doesn't really break down from here, but we just waffle sideways. At some point, the rational investor will look at these miners that are almost literally printing cash. If you're if you're mining gold and silver, you are pulling real money out of the ground, right? And if your margins are good and and this even has I like to say it has a Warren Buffett stamp of approval, not in his buyin, but in his in his one of his major investment requirements is a moat. In mining has a very natural moat. It takes years to make a discovery and then even when you have one, you got to get it permitted and you got to get the financing. You got to build the mine. Even if you had a shovel ready mine ready to go to jump on high prices today, it would still take you in most cases around two years to build that mine. So there's a argument to be made here that nothing needs to happen. If the market just goes sideways, conditions more or less persist the way they are now for a couple years, the better companies will be just printing cash, rewarding shareholders, and the rational investor should see that. Even a Warren Buffett should be able to see something like that. I get it and that could happen. I'm not poo pooing it necessarily, but I got to ask the question, you know, how often is Mr. Market rational? It just seems like if things aren't going up, you know, people are not as interested. So, be aware of that. Personally, I'm looking for opportunities to buy low this year. And if I don't get that in gold and silver, I'm likely to get it in copper or uranium or or oil. You know, when peace breaks out, oil is likely to to crater in a big way despite the enduring disruptions. And I would see that as an opportunity. So, we've we focused a lot in this conversation on gold and silver. And I understand why, but I'm just reminding investors out there or speculators that it it doesn't have to be all eggs in one basket. And we all know darn well it probably shouldn't be, right? So, buy low, sell high. If you don't have an opportunity to buy low in in your favorite commodity, maybe consider looking at something else. >> No, fair enough. Like you sort of touched on my next question. I was going to ask you where do you see the biggest riskreward uh right now? Um maybe I I'll specify a bit more maybe producers, developers, explorers. Um where in the cycle are we? Have we reached explorers yet or has the cycle reached the explorers yet? Truly, >> it did in 2025. I mean there and that even included some explorers that were just doing that I've fallen and I can't get up thing just flatline for years despite higher gold gold dollar exchange rate I like to call it rather than the gold price. Uh but in 25 many of those even got up off the mat and and by the way that was a litmus test. If you had a gold stock that didn't respond to the surge in 2025 that's not a quality stock. That's probably not one that you want in your portfolio. Um, but I'm looking at it now to answer your question, not so much in terms of type of company, majors, mid-tiers, developers, juniors. I'm looking at it in terms of commodity. Uh, if I forward-looking statement here, you know, I just said I'm not a military expert. I don't know what's going to end this war, but it seems very likely to me that the US will want some kind of resolution to this war uh as soon as possible because there's an election coming up and the war is not helping. You know, ton of conversation we don't need to get into about that, but it's yeah, I don't know when the war is going to end, but it but it seems likely to me that there will be some kind of off-ramp somewhere soonish, next month or two, something like that. And when that and we've already seen that whenever Trump tweets something about you know peace negotiations or there you know Iran wants a deal or whatever oil drops it doesn't nothing actually has to happen just the tweet pushes oil down two three four 5% just on a tweet so imagine what'll happen to oil when there actually is a deal when there act you know there's there's an agreement and the fighting really stops and the straight of hormuz opens up again um I think we will a tremendous buying opportunity. There will be a knee-jerk reaction negative in oil. So, you asked where's the opportunity I'm looking for? This is very specifically the near-term opportunity I'm looking for. I expect an oversold condition temporarily oversold overreaction condition in oil whenever that peace deal is announced. by the way, whether it holds or not, even just getting to that deal, I think we'll see oil oversell and that will completely ignore the long-term cost and getting back to normal, which could take months or years. And so, I I I would expect a V-shaped buying opportunity, and I have a lot of cash that I'm looking forward to deploying that. The next best opportunity after that is probably uranium. Unlike copper, gold or silver, it's not so or or even oil. It's not so close to its highs. It It's It's elevated over lows, but it's well below $140 a pound, not even adjusted for inflation of previous highs. Uh and the supply and demand constraints there are very solid. I like uranium a lot as is. >> No, fantastic. Look, we will continue this conversation in Frankfurt. Can't wait to do this in person. It'll be absolutely fantastic. Really, really looking forward to it. It'll be one of my highlights. I think you're even the last keynote speaker, so we saved the best for last. >> I should bring my helmet because I'm pretty sure if I say anything like we just talked about today, I'm going to get Rotten Tomatoes. [laughter] >> No, we'll make sure that the buffet is cleared by then. So, it should should be all right. >> What are friends for? [snorts] >> Absolutely. No, no, we'll make sure that there's nothing to throw. We We're not like We're not going to go there, but we're not going to leave bricks on the side of the street for people to pick up and bring with them. Right. So, DGM branded bricks. That'd be something. Um, no. Oh, fantastic. Lobo, we always enjoy having this conversation with you. Can't wait to see you in Frankfurt. In the in the meantime, I know it's kind of a rhetorical question, but now where where can our audience find more of your work? >> independent speculator.com. As always, I like to say there's a free weekly letter. Easy sell. Don't have to pay anything. And the I can't promise you'll like my bearishness or reasonableness. Take your point. Uh but what I can promise is that you will not get a flood of spam. I I hate that you get one email notification a week when we publish and then based on my work you can decide whether or not my my paid services might be of value to you. >> Fantastic. Lobo, thank you so much for your time. Great pleasure to chat as always. See you in Frankfurt. Safe travels and uh mascot. See you then. And uh everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Tremendously appreciate you watching so financially. Love the conversations with Lobo every single time. We'll have to do a Fed live conversation again here in the near future because we'll have a new Fed president to comment on very soon as well. So, that should be fun. And uh if you haven't done so, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously and we really really appreciate it. Our goal is still to reach 100,000 subscribers and we'll take it from there. Uh much appreciate the support. Hope this was valuable. Thanks so much and I'll see you all in Frankfurt on uh next Friday. Take care out there.