The Bond Market Ambush Could Send SILVER to $500 | Michael Oliver
Summary
Macro Catalyst: A looming government debt crisis and rising yields could force the Federal Reserve into larger QE, igniting a bond market panic.
Precious Metals: The guest argues gold and silver are in a long-term bull, with current congestion likely ending before a sharp acceleration higher.
Silver Upside: Expects a period of verticality with silver potentially reaching $300–$500/oz within months, outperforming gold on a percentage basis.
Miners Leadership: Silver miners are breaking out versus gold miners (SIL vs GDX, XAU vs gold), with miners set to dramatically outperform bullion.
Equities Outlook: The S&P 500 appears to be topping; a gentle rollover could trigger a broader bear market without an immediate crash.
Portfolio Implications: The traditional 60/40 is challenged; adding gold and silver is framed as a necessary allocation amid bond and equity stress.
Global Context: China is seen as relatively more stable and less bubbly than the U.S., though global linkages could still pressure its market.
Transcript
and gold and silver know that meaning the destruction of the money unit in terms of buying power the increase in the supply uh drives them north and once the public and analysts and portfolio managers realize that hey there's no other alternative look at the charts the bonds don't look good uh the guy at Morgan Stanley was right the stock market is rolling over oh my goodness you know um there's nothing left except chasing gold and silver. The markets are a funny place right now. The S&P 500 has been rallying. Gold treading water, but silver broke out. So, what is happening really in the markets and what is driving markets? What should we be paying attention to? What is signal? What is noise? I've invited back Michael Oliver. He's a phenomenal guest to have on to help us understand what is really happening in the underlying economy but also in the markets. What should we be paying attention to? What is the signal? What is the noise? Really looking forward to this discussion with him. But before I switch over, quick reminder, help us under help us, you know, to treat the algorithm right. Hit that like and subscribe button. It just helps us out tremendously and we really appreciate it bringing guests like Michael on as well. So, thank you so much for doing that. Now, Michael, it is a great pleasure to have you back on. It feels like things are heating up. How are you? I'm fine and things are heating up. >> So yeah, let's dissect that together because um in your weekend report you really warned us to not pay attention to the headlines but the underlying trends. What exactly did you mean by that? >> Well the uh each of the markets need to be watched now because the major categories because they bump into each other. Their causal factors create positive effects here, negative effects there. Gold and silver have been driving north for a decade. Okay? And they well especially gold uh over time, hundreds of years, gold constantly maintains its buying power, its value. Uh it is a reflection of the degradation of money units. It's not a reflection of global uncertainty, which is a common phrase that the press likes to use and things like that. After all, if we had global uncertainty such as the onset of the Russia Ukraine war or the Iran event, gold didn't go up, it went down. Okay? So that that should dismiss that notion. It's monetary factors are a key underlying wave in most markets. Gold and silver are have entered late last year in our technical assessment a an acceleration phase on the upside where the the angle of ascent is steeper and after the congestion zone that we've just seen and that's what I regarded as not a top. We had a sharp drop last day of January and since then you can basically draw a line sideways and they've been above and below that level. What we're trying to do is define when silver and gold will come out of this congestion zone up down zone and resume the uptrend because we're convinced for variety of reasons that what's on the other side of this congestion zone is verticality and very brief verticality. Meaning in a matter of several months, we expect to see silver advance to $300 to $500 an ounce. It sounds lunatic, I know. And gold, we're not sure where it's going, but it will go up less on a percentage basis than will silver uh at this point in history. uh other markets out there will help generate this acceleration phase in gold and silver where finally the average Joe on the street average analyst will say, "Oh, now I understand why they've been going up." It's not global uncertainty. It's not what the Fed's going to do. It's because of this and this. And those thises are one of them primarily is the US government. well or government debts. Uh we had a crisis in 2007 and n it was predicted by a handful of young guys in the movie The Big Short shows that where they knew there was a mortgage crisis coming and sure enough it took a couple years but it came and they were right and people who laughed at them ceased. Okay, well this time we have a different problem. We have a debt problem also in the commercial area and private debt as well. But we have government debt crisis. We know we've had one in Japan. They've had to bring out fire hoses. In fact, the new prime minister who uh was elected like a year ago, she said, "We're going to have to print print." Okay, lovely. Good. Uh now, the Fed is sitting on the same time bomb. uh we analyze the T-bond futures market the 30year bonds uh they are the end of the time scale of debt that is least controlled by the central bank in fact when they cut rates you can see often times the bonds will go up in yield t-bonds um everybody's focused on was the Fed going to cut now or whatever blah blah blah today I think there's for instance a sell off because we had a high CPI number I think largely due to the oil factor Ultimately, there is a mandate out there that is unstated by the Fed. It's not unemployment. It's not the strong economy, weak economy. It's government debt crisis. And we have one. Now, Jamie Diamond, head of JP Morgan a week ago said that we're going to have a bond crisis and we're going to have to deal with it. And he's he's speaking fundamentally. uh but he happens to be dead on target in terms of our timing of when that crisis is going to hit. If you look at the T-bond market, now remember it's bigger than the stock market, much bigger. It dropped hard into 2022. Yields went up sharply and it hasn't been able to get off the ground since then. Three years of sideways bond, high yields, low price. We think that sideways bond price situation is now rolling over and we're headed for another leg down, another upside in yields which will create a bond market panic. Uh the Fed will have to respond, meaning turn on the fire hoses because they have nothing else they can do. Uh and they can't let the house burn down. The stock market seems oblivious to this and that's a whole another issue. We can get into that if you want to. >> Yeah. No, let's dissect that together. Um, let's define firehouses like what kind of fire hoses or what kind of fire extinguish come up with you know they they copied the Japanese back in 2008 uh when we had the crash in this US stock market in October of 2008 a full year off of the bull high. It already been in a bare trend for a year. And after that crash in October and and during that time we also had failure of a couple banks if you recall the Fed came in with QES. They took a page out of the Japanese textbook and they started QE. Well, it didn't help the stock market then because it went down for another two quarters. Went down into March of 2009. Gold exploded. Gold had also dipped in October in sympathy with the stock market. although it had been going up before and after, it was just a one-mon phenomenon. But gold was back at its high almost immediately when they started QES. And um I think we're in that position now where the bond market event, which is not a headline event on financial TV channels nor among talking analysts and so forth. They're talking about the Iran situation or they're talking about a AI or recently the semiconductors. Nobody's looking at the government bond market or hardly anybody. Uh Jamie Diamond is. And we think it's the crisis, the ambush that few are expecting. And when that one hits, it's far bigger than a mortgage crisis. And so the Fed has to respond. They have no choice and they have very little they can do other than basically print print in various forms. Uh they'll be in there buying bonds. In fact, last November, um the head of the New York Fed, Williams, made a statement that the the Fed was going to start buying bonds. Okay. Well, go back and look at the price of T-bond futures in November and where they are now. Yes, it's been slow, but they've gone down. Yields have continued up. So, if they've been buying bonds, it hasn't helped. They need to turn on the fire hose more. And I think if you provoke the bond market through the recent price lows or down to those lows even right now just for example T-bond futures are trading in the 112s you get down to 111 much under 111 you're going to start to alarm even the price chart analysts out there who realize hey this thing isn't holding and that's when you're going to the headline will start to shift and the Fed will have to do something more dramatic. Um but also the stock market you know the stock market's not oblivious to this. So far they've protect they they've not cared if you look at the last year or so while bond yields have remained high prices low stock market has continued to go up in a zigzag manner uh we think it is in a major topping process stock market US stock market in particular and that what's on the other side of this is a major bare market. We don't think there's a crash event anytime real soon, but we do think you could possibly top maybe this month and ooze down such that if you end up closing this quarter out, meaning into this month, end to June and open the third quarter for the S&P, let's talk about, for example, it had a rangebound high at 7,000 for five or six months. punched through that recently despite the war. Got up to 7,400. If you ooze back down under 7,000 again and get back below that distribution zone of prior price highs, momentum factors will be in a very dangerous position especially when you open next quarter. uh such that the structures that we look at on momentum second we look at that primarily price we look at secondarily momentum will usually lead price in a trend change and we will be busting a lot of momentum trend structures if we simply ooze back down gently without headlines and we don't need a crash in the stock market to generate this just sort of slip back down quietly and you'll be in a position next quarter to then maybe start to see some sharp decline. Again, not necessarily a crash event. Crash events sometimes occur in bare markets, but sometimes it's it's late in the bare market like the 2007 to9 event was. Uh so anyway, that's another factor to watch. Well, when if you if the bond market is sick and the stock market turns sick, what's your alternative? >> Okay. uh you know the what was the CIO of Morgan Stanley several months ago said the old 6040 orthodoxy >> 60% stocks 40% bonds to have a balanced portfolio quote unquote is gone we've got to introduce gold into this uh and he was very realistic in that observation and that's what gold and silver are sitting on is a tender box of demand yes it will be late I think you could have bought gold long time ago at much better levels or silver uh which at levels we suggested. But there will be a point here I think after we get out of this congestion zone where the verticality is awesome and I think a lot of it could occur in three or four monthly bars meaning by summer by the end of summer where you could have silver at that kind of range 3 to 500. Let let's inspect that. Let's or dissect and not inspect it. Let's dissect it a little bit because the Fed is already easing and we we're already seeing QE where there's the nonQE QE of about 40 billion a month, but also like indirect QE like the easing of bank regulations and I've had Michael Howell on the program to talk about this really brilliant guy. Um he he said the Fed indirectly and indirectly already injected $600 billion into the market which is a massive massive number. Um, is it sounds like from from your perspective that's still not enough and they already started buying bonds for example or T- belts, sorry. Um, I think they bought on the short end already because they had to soak up some of the demand that wasn't there. Is that just playing with the yield curve or is there more maybe a structural risk already? >> They're not they're not totally panicked yet because they're they're not really smart. They're not really smarter or they're less smart than most analysts even. uh and and when the price chart breaks down, T- bonds break down and yields punch out through those multi-year highs on 30-year bonds. Uh and they they know what's going on in Japan. So now we have a second major world government that has a government bond crisis. You know, this is not some third world country. We could ignore it. This is not uh just mortgages which you know here there everywhere little mortgages. This is this is too massive. This is a nuclear event and they they have very little they can do about it. They can't cut the budget. The Fed can't. The only thing they can do is turn on a fire hose and uh and they know that and and they would the central government will do anything and everything they can do to put out the fire uh once it commences. And I suspect they'll realize that it has commenced once you take the price of bonds and punch through the multi-year lows that we're dancing on right now. Uh that's when they'll suddenly say, well gosh, you know, I guess we got to do more. Uh and gold and silver know that. Meaning the destruction of the money unit in terms of buying power, the increase in the supply, uh drives them north. And once the public and analysts and portfolio managers realize that, hey, there's no other alternative. Look at the charts. The bonds don't look good. Uh the guy at Morgan Stanley was right. the stock market is rolling over. Oh my goodness. You know, u there's nothing left except chasing gold and silver. And that's why I think you'll get not just the only reason, there's technical reasons. I think you'll get verticality like we have never seen before. And maybe it's more of a headline question actually, like putting it into category, but changing out, you know, the star player, meaning the chairman of the of the Fed, switching them out. It's just headline is just noise, not signal. >> Well, we know he's going to cut more than the other one would have. Okay? You know, but uh it doesn't matter who's in charge there, quote unquote in charge. Uh they have to respond to this event. It's too huge. They can't sit back and wait. Bernani waited, you know, back in 2007, middle of that year, when the market was topping out, by the way, in a zone that we predicted it would top out in. Uh, Bernani came out with a statement said, "Oh, the mortgage situation's totally under control." He didn't chuckle, but, you know, he almost did. Uh, and then a year later, he had to emergency, you know, engage QES. Okay. Uh, it wasn't under control. So, these guys don't know what they're doing, but they're in charge. Okay. So, when when the events happen, they have to respond to it. They can't simply say, "Well, we're going to go play golf." Okay. They have to do it. Um, and the government will panic as well. But they can't solve it now by cutting the budget. It's too late. Once you get to this point, the cris you puncture the balloon. And once that sentiment reality hits investors, gee, it happened in Japan. Oh, it's happening here. Well, what does that mean? it means it probably could happen in Europe or UK etc. So we have a global government debt crisis uh far bigger than any stock markets uh in which case it's it's tabby ata time >> and you know it's simple as that uh and again the monetary metals are quite old. They've not been around like the S&P since the 1950s you know etc. They've been around thousands of years as money and the public awareness of that is particularly strong in Asia and it will come back here again. We're lagged to the reality of that. Uh they'll be ahead of the game over there. >> Um let's talk about that. You you just touched on Asia. Like I have two topics there for you I want to address real quick. One of course is the trip uh by President Trump and his uh delegation to to China this week later this week. um headline or noise of course is is the or noise or signal Michael um is is there anything that we can derive from it are you do you have any expectations in terms of impact >> I I don't I'm I'm not an expert on it but then again experts on it aren't always right anyway so um I suspect the Chinese are feeling pretty good >> meaning they're not involved in this directly yeah they they get oil through the hormous you know etc but uh they have other sources as well but they're sitting in in a position where by doing nothing don't invade this or that just sit there and be what you are which historically has been a trading society for thousands of years uh you will ascend as the world power I don't mean military power necessarily but the a strong economy and a stable situation simply by doing nothing uh because there's so much instability elsewhere now we know the Chinese have been accumulating gold massively Um and um they're preparing for something. Apparently they understand the nature of fiat currencies maybe uh but and they're in a better position than we are to survive the coming economic problem and also when we assess the Shanghai composite index which we've done for years uh and we've called most of the major moves in it. Uh recently it's been advancing like the US stock market. But if you go back and look at 2009 bare lows for Shanghai when we made bare lows, uh it's only doubled in a half at current price levels. S&P's up 10 11fold. The NASDAQ 100's up 20fold since then, largely due to the printing of money. You look at in a money supply chart in the US and you'll understand, oh, that's why they're up. Okay. uh S&P in fact is up almost as much as the growth in the money supply since the year 2000 since the dotcom top. Uh but the Chinese market while it does have points of vulnerability like we do technically speaking is nowhere near bubble status. We're a bubble. When we break it could be far worse in terms of consequence here, consequence there and so forth. Things people aren't thinking about. the wave effects, the wave effects that affect the average guy, the family, you know, uh that create pain, that create political uncertainty. Uh Chinese are in a much better position technically. They they will likely have a bare market if we have one. After all, we're a world economy. Okay, we are connected. Uh but technically, they're not in the same at all. they do not have the vulnerability that we have in terms of the technical downside and likely fundamental downside. So this meeting I would think she is sitting in a pretty good comfy position uh in terms of knowing that these events that are going on out there are making China actually look a little more stable. In fact, I've heard this from a few analysts on TV about how a lot of people around the world and countries are viewing China as a bit more stable than we are right now. So, we shall see. I don't know what's going to come out of the talks, but I don't think she is in any panic mode. I think Trump might be. And who knows, China may come in and say, "Wave a wand and end this thing, you know." >> Yeah. Maybe they have that panacea, you know, that uh that that al that solution that solves everything, right? That'd be very nice. I' I'd accept it in a heartbeat to be honest. Um staying in Asia, um I have one more question for you. Of course, um India's premier Modi yesterday said don't buy gold for the next 12 months. Um >> I need to dissect that with you a little bit because we saw a massive reaction in silver yesterday, not in gold. So silver jumped up to 7% yesterday, breaking out as well. There was a technical reaction I guess as well. Um signal or noise there on on that front because it triggered quite a bit of buying it seemed. >> No. No, it's uh we've been analyzing the inside of the monetary metals for a signal based on our momentum factors. Now, if you look at a price chart, you'd say, well, I got to get silver back up to 100, 120 before I believe it. Okay? You look at the gold chart, you say, well, you know, I got to get up to 5,500 before I believe it's again good again. Uh but when we look at momentum factors and this twisting and turning we've had now for three and a half months, again, draw a line sideways. Um, we're looking for signals from intermediate technical factors, not long-term. Long-term factors are positive. And in fact, the recent drop in no way damaged the long-term momentum trend structure of silver or gold. It wasn't even close to getting to levels that could damage it. So, this break was of only intermediate consequence. And now we've spent three and a half months spooking people both ways yet to no real effect if you draw a line through the middle. U and the question is when do you know it's turning back up again? Do you wait for it to go back to the highs or does momentum speak first? Momentum has already spoken in regard to silver. In fact about a week ago it it when it got up over 80 that was enough. We shot up to 88 the other day. made a statement. It says, "Okay, I'm ready to go." Silver miners, same story. They crossed some levels the other day that suggest to us, okay, they're ready to go, too. Gold is a bit lagged. Now, gold has some key numbers, which we actually traded up to in the dark today, uh, near 4,800. Uh, you get back up there again on a daily close and gold is then in our measures is saying, "Me too. we're going and I like the fact that silver is leading here and gold is the lagard because the spread relationship between silver and the mama monetary metal gold has massively disfavored silver for about a decade. There's the spread relationship between silver and gold. If you divide an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold and express it as a percent, if you went back to the when we were 50 bucks in silver in 1980, that spread was 6.5%. Meaning an ounce of silver was worth 6 and a half% of an ounce of gold. When it hit 50 again in 2011, it was worth 3.1% of the price of gold. Right now, even though price is above those two highs, the spread has now broken out of a clear range that prevailed for the last 10 years at about 1.4% was the ceiling level. You broke through that late last year. Right now, you're pushing up toward 2%. So, we're still dirt cheap on a spread basis, silver versus gold historically. And when we measure the silver miners versus the gold miners, which one's better to be in terms of percent gain, the silver miners already broke out versus gold miners about two quarters ago. So what we see within the monetary metals is that the silver component bullion and the miners are highly likely to vastly outperform gold's continued bull trend. And I think it could be a very sharp outperformance, a jaw-dropping one. Again, you know, gold might double from here easily. Uh silver, you know, we're 80 $85 right now that we could see three to 500. We argue in the next three to three or four months once we come up out of here. But the momentum metrics argue, yeah, that process is underway. The only one lagging right now is gold. And I would suggest if you today's high that we saw intraday and they drop 2% drop down from you get back up there again on a close >> gold saying yeah me too. >> Interesting. Now I'm I really want to follow that closely. Are there certain levels like you just mentioned those those four levels we specify. Yeah. >> Okay. >> I can't get them out here. People pay for this. Okay. Exact as they should in general. In general, we're in a transition, I think, up out of this inc. And you don't have to, you can wait if you want, but again, if you don't, if you're not already long silver or gold, preferably from levels that we we suggested, like for example, the last three buy signals we gave in silver based on long-term momentum was $25 to $26 in March of 2024, $35 in June of 2025, and $56 at last November's close. That's it. We don't give any more long-term buy signals. But still, if you want to be in, there's a lot left here and uh you know, you better consider getting in very soon uh and not waiting three months. >> Anyway, >> no, that that that that's good advice. Um one one indicator I look at because we follow it very closely of course here at Sor Financial is the m the miners themselves. Yes. Um I'm trying to figure out what they're doing. Um especially the silver miners, they're quite volatile as well. Um what what signal are they sending to you? Because usually >> yeah silver miners versus gold miners if you plot a chart where you divide SIL ETF silver miners into GDX and plot every month's close going back 2020 let's say when they had that surge back then and plot that thing you'll see that there was a basing pattern between 2024 and 2025 that it came up out of. So when you look at that chart, the relationship between the two, there was a clear breakout six months ago. And since then, if you bought silver miners, you're doing a lot better than had you bought gold miners. Same is true with silver. Silver had a sharp pullback along with gold since that January high. But the spread relation between silver and gold is holding its ground after a breakout that occurred last November. So that situation, and by the way, there's another metric we're watching. We mentioned it here. It's the overall gold silver miner complex versus gold. XAU index has been around since the 1980s. It's the Philadelphia gold and silver miners index. it. When you plot it on a spread relationship, divide its price into gold, plot it close of each month, and go back into the 1980s, you'll see that it lived in a relative range of about on average 25% of the price of gold. Was XAU price was about 25% of an ounce of gold. In the 2015 collapse in gold when gold went down to a,50 the miners collapsed even more and that spread went all the way down to 4%. Okay, it had lived for decades about 10% on either side of 25% up and down but that was the average mean value of the mining risk to gold and it collapsed to 4%. I mean what's it going to do? Go to zero? Okay. Uh, since then, since 2015, it built a base, the upper end of that base was nipped out a couple months ago by XAU measured versus gold just by a little bit and it pulled back and now it's going up again. GDX when we do the same thing, measure it versus gold, didn't quite break out. But what you have is an 11-yearwide basing action by this relative performance at very low levels for miners versus gold. And when that breaks out, and we think it's going to break out this month or next, probably this month. When it does, expect the miners to soar in terms of net price gain and relative performance gain. Basically doubling if not better whatever gold does. So again, within the monetary metals, yeah, gold is the mama, but the miners in silver will beat gold at this point and do so likely in a very dramatic way because they're vastly undervalued in relation to their historic norms compared to gold. >> Fantastic, Michael. What a wonderful conversation. Perfect timing as well. Um, really it's like I like always I always like ending on a positive note, so this is a good point to wrap up. Um, no re really enthusiastic about what is happening here in general. Like the consolidation seems almost over in in in the miners and the metals. So I'm excited to hear that. Um, where where can we send our audience, Michael? Where can they follow more of your work? >> Well, our site is Oliver MSA for momentum structural analysis MSA. Uh, take your time, read about our unorthodox methodology, uh, and request some samples reports. >> Fantastic. Michael, what a wonderful conversation as always. I loved catching up with you. Thanks so much for taking the time. Um >> your your your words are always balm on my heart or whatever you say like it's always great. Always appreciate it. So thanks so much for coming on and everybody else. What a wonderful conversation here with Michael Oliver. Go check out his website. Go check out his services as well. Phenomenal hit rate here as of late. I'm really excited if he hits again because uh we're going to make a ton of money if that works. I I'm heavily invested of course in in gold and silver. You know that we run a fund in the space as well. So of course I'm hugely biased. I'm usually um excited about the prospects here of gold and silver in general. You heard the thesis. There's so much going on behind the scenes. Um or not even just behind the scenes. It's just not being talked about. There's so many cracks appearing um in in the global financial system that we just we we can only be positive for gold and silver. Sorry. There's no other thesis that uh I I can count for or account for right now. So, hit that like and subscribe button. We appreciate it. And don't let emotions run your investments for you. Take care out there.
The Bond Market Ambush Could Send SILVER to $500 | Michael Oliver
Summary
Transcript
and gold and silver know that meaning the destruction of the money unit in terms of buying power the increase in the supply uh drives them north and once the public and analysts and portfolio managers realize that hey there's no other alternative look at the charts the bonds don't look good uh the guy at Morgan Stanley was right the stock market is rolling over oh my goodness you know um there's nothing left except chasing gold and silver. The markets are a funny place right now. The S&P 500 has been rallying. Gold treading water, but silver broke out. So, what is happening really in the markets and what is driving markets? What should we be paying attention to? What is signal? What is noise? I've invited back Michael Oliver. He's a phenomenal guest to have on to help us understand what is really happening in the underlying economy but also in the markets. What should we be paying attention to? What is the signal? What is the noise? Really looking forward to this discussion with him. But before I switch over, quick reminder, help us under help us, you know, to treat the algorithm right. Hit that like and subscribe button. It just helps us out tremendously and we really appreciate it bringing guests like Michael on as well. So, thank you so much for doing that. Now, Michael, it is a great pleasure to have you back on. It feels like things are heating up. How are you? I'm fine and things are heating up. >> So yeah, let's dissect that together because um in your weekend report you really warned us to not pay attention to the headlines but the underlying trends. What exactly did you mean by that? >> Well the uh each of the markets need to be watched now because the major categories because they bump into each other. Their causal factors create positive effects here, negative effects there. Gold and silver have been driving north for a decade. Okay? And they well especially gold uh over time, hundreds of years, gold constantly maintains its buying power, its value. Uh it is a reflection of the degradation of money units. It's not a reflection of global uncertainty, which is a common phrase that the press likes to use and things like that. After all, if we had global uncertainty such as the onset of the Russia Ukraine war or the Iran event, gold didn't go up, it went down. Okay? So that that should dismiss that notion. It's monetary factors are a key underlying wave in most markets. Gold and silver are have entered late last year in our technical assessment a an acceleration phase on the upside where the the angle of ascent is steeper and after the congestion zone that we've just seen and that's what I regarded as not a top. We had a sharp drop last day of January and since then you can basically draw a line sideways and they've been above and below that level. What we're trying to do is define when silver and gold will come out of this congestion zone up down zone and resume the uptrend because we're convinced for variety of reasons that what's on the other side of this congestion zone is verticality and very brief verticality. Meaning in a matter of several months, we expect to see silver advance to $300 to $500 an ounce. It sounds lunatic, I know. And gold, we're not sure where it's going, but it will go up less on a percentage basis than will silver uh at this point in history. uh other markets out there will help generate this acceleration phase in gold and silver where finally the average Joe on the street average analyst will say, "Oh, now I understand why they've been going up." It's not global uncertainty. It's not what the Fed's going to do. It's because of this and this. And those thises are one of them primarily is the US government. well or government debts. Uh we had a crisis in 2007 and n it was predicted by a handful of young guys in the movie The Big Short shows that where they knew there was a mortgage crisis coming and sure enough it took a couple years but it came and they were right and people who laughed at them ceased. Okay, well this time we have a different problem. We have a debt problem also in the commercial area and private debt as well. But we have government debt crisis. We know we've had one in Japan. They've had to bring out fire hoses. In fact, the new prime minister who uh was elected like a year ago, she said, "We're going to have to print print." Okay, lovely. Good. Uh now, the Fed is sitting on the same time bomb. uh we analyze the T-bond futures market the 30year bonds uh they are the end of the time scale of debt that is least controlled by the central bank in fact when they cut rates you can see often times the bonds will go up in yield t-bonds um everybody's focused on was the Fed going to cut now or whatever blah blah blah today I think there's for instance a sell off because we had a high CPI number I think largely due to the oil factor Ultimately, there is a mandate out there that is unstated by the Fed. It's not unemployment. It's not the strong economy, weak economy. It's government debt crisis. And we have one. Now, Jamie Diamond, head of JP Morgan a week ago said that we're going to have a bond crisis and we're going to have to deal with it. And he's he's speaking fundamentally. uh but he happens to be dead on target in terms of our timing of when that crisis is going to hit. If you look at the T-bond market, now remember it's bigger than the stock market, much bigger. It dropped hard into 2022. Yields went up sharply and it hasn't been able to get off the ground since then. Three years of sideways bond, high yields, low price. We think that sideways bond price situation is now rolling over and we're headed for another leg down, another upside in yields which will create a bond market panic. Uh the Fed will have to respond, meaning turn on the fire hoses because they have nothing else they can do. Uh and they can't let the house burn down. The stock market seems oblivious to this and that's a whole another issue. We can get into that if you want to. >> Yeah. No, let's dissect that together. Um, let's define firehouses like what kind of fire hoses or what kind of fire extinguish come up with you know they they copied the Japanese back in 2008 uh when we had the crash in this US stock market in October of 2008 a full year off of the bull high. It already been in a bare trend for a year. And after that crash in October and and during that time we also had failure of a couple banks if you recall the Fed came in with QES. They took a page out of the Japanese textbook and they started QE. Well, it didn't help the stock market then because it went down for another two quarters. Went down into March of 2009. Gold exploded. Gold had also dipped in October in sympathy with the stock market. although it had been going up before and after, it was just a one-mon phenomenon. But gold was back at its high almost immediately when they started QES. And um I think we're in that position now where the bond market event, which is not a headline event on financial TV channels nor among talking analysts and so forth. They're talking about the Iran situation or they're talking about a AI or recently the semiconductors. Nobody's looking at the government bond market or hardly anybody. Uh Jamie Diamond is. And we think it's the crisis, the ambush that few are expecting. And when that one hits, it's far bigger than a mortgage crisis. And so the Fed has to respond. They have no choice and they have very little they can do other than basically print print in various forms. Uh they'll be in there buying bonds. In fact, last November, um the head of the New York Fed, Williams, made a statement that the the Fed was going to start buying bonds. Okay. Well, go back and look at the price of T-bond futures in November and where they are now. Yes, it's been slow, but they've gone down. Yields have continued up. So, if they've been buying bonds, it hasn't helped. They need to turn on the fire hose more. And I think if you provoke the bond market through the recent price lows or down to those lows even right now just for example T-bond futures are trading in the 112s you get down to 111 much under 111 you're going to start to alarm even the price chart analysts out there who realize hey this thing isn't holding and that's when you're going to the headline will start to shift and the Fed will have to do something more dramatic. Um but also the stock market you know the stock market's not oblivious to this. So far they've protect they they've not cared if you look at the last year or so while bond yields have remained high prices low stock market has continued to go up in a zigzag manner uh we think it is in a major topping process stock market US stock market in particular and that what's on the other side of this is a major bare market. We don't think there's a crash event anytime real soon, but we do think you could possibly top maybe this month and ooze down such that if you end up closing this quarter out, meaning into this month, end to June and open the third quarter for the S&P, let's talk about, for example, it had a rangebound high at 7,000 for five or six months. punched through that recently despite the war. Got up to 7,400. If you ooze back down under 7,000 again and get back below that distribution zone of prior price highs, momentum factors will be in a very dangerous position especially when you open next quarter. uh such that the structures that we look at on momentum second we look at that primarily price we look at secondarily momentum will usually lead price in a trend change and we will be busting a lot of momentum trend structures if we simply ooze back down gently without headlines and we don't need a crash in the stock market to generate this just sort of slip back down quietly and you'll be in a position next quarter to then maybe start to see some sharp decline. Again, not necessarily a crash event. Crash events sometimes occur in bare markets, but sometimes it's it's late in the bare market like the 2007 to9 event was. Uh so anyway, that's another factor to watch. Well, when if you if the bond market is sick and the stock market turns sick, what's your alternative? >> Okay. uh you know the what was the CIO of Morgan Stanley several months ago said the old 6040 orthodoxy >> 60% stocks 40% bonds to have a balanced portfolio quote unquote is gone we've got to introduce gold into this uh and he was very realistic in that observation and that's what gold and silver are sitting on is a tender box of demand yes it will be late I think you could have bought gold long time ago at much better levels or silver uh which at levels we suggested. But there will be a point here I think after we get out of this congestion zone where the verticality is awesome and I think a lot of it could occur in three or four monthly bars meaning by summer by the end of summer where you could have silver at that kind of range 3 to 500. Let let's inspect that. Let's or dissect and not inspect it. Let's dissect it a little bit because the Fed is already easing and we we're already seeing QE where there's the nonQE QE of about 40 billion a month, but also like indirect QE like the easing of bank regulations and I've had Michael Howell on the program to talk about this really brilliant guy. Um he he said the Fed indirectly and indirectly already injected $600 billion into the market which is a massive massive number. Um, is it sounds like from from your perspective that's still not enough and they already started buying bonds for example or T- belts, sorry. Um, I think they bought on the short end already because they had to soak up some of the demand that wasn't there. Is that just playing with the yield curve or is there more maybe a structural risk already? >> They're not they're not totally panicked yet because they're they're not really smart. They're not really smarter or they're less smart than most analysts even. uh and and when the price chart breaks down, T- bonds break down and yields punch out through those multi-year highs on 30-year bonds. Uh and they they know what's going on in Japan. So now we have a second major world government that has a government bond crisis. You know, this is not some third world country. We could ignore it. This is not uh just mortgages which you know here there everywhere little mortgages. This is this is too massive. This is a nuclear event and they they have very little they can do about it. They can't cut the budget. The Fed can't. The only thing they can do is turn on a fire hose and uh and they know that and and they would the central government will do anything and everything they can do to put out the fire uh once it commences. And I suspect they'll realize that it has commenced once you take the price of bonds and punch through the multi-year lows that we're dancing on right now. Uh that's when they'll suddenly say, well gosh, you know, I guess we got to do more. Uh and gold and silver know that. Meaning the destruction of the money unit in terms of buying power, the increase in the supply, uh drives them north. And once the public and analysts and portfolio managers realize that, hey, there's no other alternative. Look at the charts. The bonds don't look good. Uh the guy at Morgan Stanley was right. the stock market is rolling over. Oh my goodness. You know, u there's nothing left except chasing gold and silver. And that's why I think you'll get not just the only reason, there's technical reasons. I think you'll get verticality like we have never seen before. And maybe it's more of a headline question actually, like putting it into category, but changing out, you know, the star player, meaning the chairman of the of the Fed, switching them out. It's just headline is just noise, not signal. >> Well, we know he's going to cut more than the other one would have. Okay? You know, but uh it doesn't matter who's in charge there, quote unquote in charge. Uh they have to respond to this event. It's too huge. They can't sit back and wait. Bernani waited, you know, back in 2007, middle of that year, when the market was topping out, by the way, in a zone that we predicted it would top out in. Uh, Bernani came out with a statement said, "Oh, the mortgage situation's totally under control." He didn't chuckle, but, you know, he almost did. Uh, and then a year later, he had to emergency, you know, engage QES. Okay. Uh, it wasn't under control. So, these guys don't know what they're doing, but they're in charge. Okay. So, when when the events happen, they have to respond to it. They can't simply say, "Well, we're going to go play golf." Okay. They have to do it. Um, and the government will panic as well. But they can't solve it now by cutting the budget. It's too late. Once you get to this point, the cris you puncture the balloon. And once that sentiment reality hits investors, gee, it happened in Japan. Oh, it's happening here. Well, what does that mean? it means it probably could happen in Europe or UK etc. So we have a global government debt crisis uh far bigger than any stock markets uh in which case it's it's tabby ata time >> and you know it's simple as that uh and again the monetary metals are quite old. They've not been around like the S&P since the 1950s you know etc. They've been around thousands of years as money and the public awareness of that is particularly strong in Asia and it will come back here again. We're lagged to the reality of that. Uh they'll be ahead of the game over there. >> Um let's talk about that. You you just touched on Asia. Like I have two topics there for you I want to address real quick. One of course is the trip uh by President Trump and his uh delegation to to China this week later this week. um headline or noise of course is is the or noise or signal Michael um is is there anything that we can derive from it are you do you have any expectations in terms of impact >> I I don't I'm I'm not an expert on it but then again experts on it aren't always right anyway so um I suspect the Chinese are feeling pretty good >> meaning they're not involved in this directly yeah they they get oil through the hormous you know etc but uh they have other sources as well but they're sitting in in a position where by doing nothing don't invade this or that just sit there and be what you are which historically has been a trading society for thousands of years uh you will ascend as the world power I don't mean military power necessarily but the a strong economy and a stable situation simply by doing nothing uh because there's so much instability elsewhere now we know the Chinese have been accumulating gold massively Um and um they're preparing for something. Apparently they understand the nature of fiat currencies maybe uh but and they're in a better position than we are to survive the coming economic problem and also when we assess the Shanghai composite index which we've done for years uh and we've called most of the major moves in it. Uh recently it's been advancing like the US stock market. But if you go back and look at 2009 bare lows for Shanghai when we made bare lows, uh it's only doubled in a half at current price levels. S&P's up 10 11fold. The NASDAQ 100's up 20fold since then, largely due to the printing of money. You look at in a money supply chart in the US and you'll understand, oh, that's why they're up. Okay. uh S&P in fact is up almost as much as the growth in the money supply since the year 2000 since the dotcom top. Uh but the Chinese market while it does have points of vulnerability like we do technically speaking is nowhere near bubble status. We're a bubble. When we break it could be far worse in terms of consequence here, consequence there and so forth. Things people aren't thinking about. the wave effects, the wave effects that affect the average guy, the family, you know, uh that create pain, that create political uncertainty. Uh Chinese are in a much better position technically. They they will likely have a bare market if we have one. After all, we're a world economy. Okay, we are connected. Uh but technically, they're not in the same at all. they do not have the vulnerability that we have in terms of the technical downside and likely fundamental downside. So this meeting I would think she is sitting in a pretty good comfy position uh in terms of knowing that these events that are going on out there are making China actually look a little more stable. In fact, I've heard this from a few analysts on TV about how a lot of people around the world and countries are viewing China as a bit more stable than we are right now. So, we shall see. I don't know what's going to come out of the talks, but I don't think she is in any panic mode. I think Trump might be. And who knows, China may come in and say, "Wave a wand and end this thing, you know." >> Yeah. Maybe they have that panacea, you know, that uh that that al that solution that solves everything, right? That'd be very nice. I' I'd accept it in a heartbeat to be honest. Um staying in Asia, um I have one more question for you. Of course, um India's premier Modi yesterday said don't buy gold for the next 12 months. Um >> I need to dissect that with you a little bit because we saw a massive reaction in silver yesterday, not in gold. So silver jumped up to 7% yesterday, breaking out as well. There was a technical reaction I guess as well. Um signal or noise there on on that front because it triggered quite a bit of buying it seemed. >> No. No, it's uh we've been analyzing the inside of the monetary metals for a signal based on our momentum factors. Now, if you look at a price chart, you'd say, well, I got to get silver back up to 100, 120 before I believe it. Okay? You look at the gold chart, you say, well, you know, I got to get up to 5,500 before I believe it's again good again. Uh but when we look at momentum factors and this twisting and turning we've had now for three and a half months, again, draw a line sideways. Um, we're looking for signals from intermediate technical factors, not long-term. Long-term factors are positive. And in fact, the recent drop in no way damaged the long-term momentum trend structure of silver or gold. It wasn't even close to getting to levels that could damage it. So, this break was of only intermediate consequence. And now we've spent three and a half months spooking people both ways yet to no real effect if you draw a line through the middle. U and the question is when do you know it's turning back up again? Do you wait for it to go back to the highs or does momentum speak first? Momentum has already spoken in regard to silver. In fact about a week ago it it when it got up over 80 that was enough. We shot up to 88 the other day. made a statement. It says, "Okay, I'm ready to go." Silver miners, same story. They crossed some levels the other day that suggest to us, okay, they're ready to go, too. Gold is a bit lagged. Now, gold has some key numbers, which we actually traded up to in the dark today, uh, near 4,800. Uh, you get back up there again on a daily close and gold is then in our measures is saying, "Me too. we're going and I like the fact that silver is leading here and gold is the lagard because the spread relationship between silver and the mama monetary metal gold has massively disfavored silver for about a decade. There's the spread relationship between silver and gold. If you divide an ounce of silver into an ounce of gold and express it as a percent, if you went back to the when we were 50 bucks in silver in 1980, that spread was 6.5%. Meaning an ounce of silver was worth 6 and a half% of an ounce of gold. When it hit 50 again in 2011, it was worth 3.1% of the price of gold. Right now, even though price is above those two highs, the spread has now broken out of a clear range that prevailed for the last 10 years at about 1.4% was the ceiling level. You broke through that late last year. Right now, you're pushing up toward 2%. So, we're still dirt cheap on a spread basis, silver versus gold historically. And when we measure the silver miners versus the gold miners, which one's better to be in terms of percent gain, the silver miners already broke out versus gold miners about two quarters ago. So what we see within the monetary metals is that the silver component bullion and the miners are highly likely to vastly outperform gold's continued bull trend. And I think it could be a very sharp outperformance, a jaw-dropping one. Again, you know, gold might double from here easily. Uh silver, you know, we're 80 $85 right now that we could see three to 500. We argue in the next three to three or four months once we come up out of here. But the momentum metrics argue, yeah, that process is underway. The only one lagging right now is gold. And I would suggest if you today's high that we saw intraday and they drop 2% drop down from you get back up there again on a close >> gold saying yeah me too. >> Interesting. Now I'm I really want to follow that closely. Are there certain levels like you just mentioned those those four levels we specify. Yeah. >> Okay. >> I can't get them out here. People pay for this. Okay. Exact as they should in general. In general, we're in a transition, I think, up out of this inc. And you don't have to, you can wait if you want, but again, if you don't, if you're not already long silver or gold, preferably from levels that we we suggested, like for example, the last three buy signals we gave in silver based on long-term momentum was $25 to $26 in March of 2024, $35 in June of 2025, and $56 at last November's close. That's it. We don't give any more long-term buy signals. But still, if you want to be in, there's a lot left here and uh you know, you better consider getting in very soon uh and not waiting three months. >> Anyway, >> no, that that that that's good advice. Um one one indicator I look at because we follow it very closely of course here at Sor Financial is the m the miners themselves. Yes. Um I'm trying to figure out what they're doing. Um especially the silver miners, they're quite volatile as well. Um what what signal are they sending to you? Because usually >> yeah silver miners versus gold miners if you plot a chart where you divide SIL ETF silver miners into GDX and plot every month's close going back 2020 let's say when they had that surge back then and plot that thing you'll see that there was a basing pattern between 2024 and 2025 that it came up out of. So when you look at that chart, the relationship between the two, there was a clear breakout six months ago. And since then, if you bought silver miners, you're doing a lot better than had you bought gold miners. Same is true with silver. Silver had a sharp pullback along with gold since that January high. But the spread relation between silver and gold is holding its ground after a breakout that occurred last November. So that situation, and by the way, there's another metric we're watching. We mentioned it here. It's the overall gold silver miner complex versus gold. XAU index has been around since the 1980s. It's the Philadelphia gold and silver miners index. it. When you plot it on a spread relationship, divide its price into gold, plot it close of each month, and go back into the 1980s, you'll see that it lived in a relative range of about on average 25% of the price of gold. Was XAU price was about 25% of an ounce of gold. In the 2015 collapse in gold when gold went down to a,50 the miners collapsed even more and that spread went all the way down to 4%. Okay, it had lived for decades about 10% on either side of 25% up and down but that was the average mean value of the mining risk to gold and it collapsed to 4%. I mean what's it going to do? Go to zero? Okay. Uh, since then, since 2015, it built a base, the upper end of that base was nipped out a couple months ago by XAU measured versus gold just by a little bit and it pulled back and now it's going up again. GDX when we do the same thing, measure it versus gold, didn't quite break out. But what you have is an 11-yearwide basing action by this relative performance at very low levels for miners versus gold. And when that breaks out, and we think it's going to break out this month or next, probably this month. When it does, expect the miners to soar in terms of net price gain and relative performance gain. Basically doubling if not better whatever gold does. So again, within the monetary metals, yeah, gold is the mama, but the miners in silver will beat gold at this point and do so likely in a very dramatic way because they're vastly undervalued in relation to their historic norms compared to gold. >> Fantastic, Michael. What a wonderful conversation. Perfect timing as well. Um, really it's like I like always I always like ending on a positive note, so this is a good point to wrap up. Um, no re really enthusiastic about what is happening here in general. Like the consolidation seems almost over in in in the miners and the metals. So I'm excited to hear that. Um, where where can we send our audience, Michael? Where can they follow more of your work? >> Well, our site is Oliver MSA for momentum structural analysis MSA. Uh, take your time, read about our unorthodox methodology, uh, and request some samples reports. >> Fantastic. Michael, what a wonderful conversation as always. I loved catching up with you. Thanks so much for taking the time. Um >> your your your words are always balm on my heart or whatever you say like it's always great. Always appreciate it. So thanks so much for coming on and everybody else. What a wonderful conversation here with Michael Oliver. Go check out his website. Go check out his services as well. Phenomenal hit rate here as of late. I'm really excited if he hits again because uh we're going to make a ton of money if that works. I I'm heavily invested of course in in gold and silver. You know that we run a fund in the space as well. So of course I'm hugely biased. I'm usually um excited about the prospects here of gold and silver in general. You heard the thesis. There's so much going on behind the scenes. Um or not even just behind the scenes. It's just not being talked about. There's so many cracks appearing um in in the global financial system that we just we we can only be positive for gold and silver. Sorry. There's no other thesis that uh I I can count for or account for right now. So, hit that like and subscribe button. We appreciate it. And don't let emotions run your investments for you. Take care out there.