WEAPONIZE THE PERIODIC TABLE (Guest: Tony Greer)

Summary

This week Kevin & Patrick welcome, Tony Greer. They discuss his trading successes and mistakes, as well as the current market …

Transcript

Hit it. It's Friday, May 22nd, 2026, episode 291. I'm Patrick Szna. And I'm Kevin Mureer. This week, we welcome back to the show an old fan favorite, Tony Greer from TJ Macro. He is nice enough to get on the trading couch and open up about his trading successes and mistakes. And then we talk about the current market environment and why he believes oil will go higher regardless of what happens in the war. Then Patrick is doing his Nomad Euro tour, but he takes time out of his camper van experience to tell us what's going on and talking charts. >> And then folks, uh, we're gonna drink some beers along the way. Uh, Danny, hop on here. Uh, I I guess I better describe. >> I have not prepared. >> Exactly. No. So, I'm drinking this uh Victoria Malaga. So, I'm I'm in Malaga, Spain now. Uh, and uh, I'm I'm doing the coastal tour here and uh, and I had to grab one of the local beers here. So, I'm going to give this one a go and see what the locals drink. >> For those who are listening only, um, I highly encourage you to go into YouTube and see Patrick. He looks like Doc, whatever his name is, and and Back to the Future in his camper van there. >> Absolutely. Like, listen, you know what? I'm I'm this dedicated to the show where we're we're not canceling a show just because of vacation. What? What the [ __ ] No, absolutely not. Absolutely not. There's there's markets to talk about. Let's do this. >> Okay. Nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics me mentioned in the show. Side effects of too much huddle may include the Iran headline fatigue syndrome. >> Something I know I'm experiencing. >> The nothing burger nothing burger earnings nihilism. And then finally, this is the one that uh really we have to talk about is the semiconductor momentum ex exhaustion. >> Well, is it really exhausted though? Any we'll find out. Let's uh let's get to the guest. >> All right. It's my great pleasure to welcome to the show the author of TJ Macro, someone I'm proud to call my friend Tony Greer. Thanks for making time for us. >> I have always got time for you, Kev. How you doing today, brother? Oh, good, man. Uh, it's very kind of you because it is Memorial Day. So, first of all, I hope you have a great long weekend. You got plans? >> That's okay. You're on the top of my favorite Canadians list, so it's no problem. Uh, yeah, I'm going to be around. It looks like a bit of a wash out, but my son and I are going to watch the NCAA Final Four of Lacrosse tomorrow and really just the basic barbecuing probably in the rain. The cooler will be inside, >> you know, usual. >> That's great. You're I know. I remember we talking about the you're a big lacrosse fan. Uh, is your is your team in it or this year or No, >> no. Cornell got knocked out by John's Hopkins uh going into the quarterfinals. So, they had a tough season, made it to the playoffs, made it to the 20, and then weren't able to win a home game against Hopkins, which is a bummer. So, the returning national champs are out, but it's still we have rooting interest and uh it's still my favorite sport to watch. >> Oh, that's great. Okay, so for those who don't know, Tony is a longstanding guest on our market show and but it's been a while since I've interviewed him. Patrick has uh always grabbed him and I I guess it's probably been since before co that we've chatted. Um and what I wanted to do was talk a little bit about uh your process and I thought if it's okay with you, would you be willing to get on the trading couch? >> I'd love to take a seat. >> Let's do it. >> All right. And uh this trading couch unlike our first time that when you were on our show, I just want to set the tone here correctly. I think you came on the show. It was like our fourth or fifth show real early. And at the time I was probably drinking a little too much, but you were definitely drinking too much. And I remember somebody saying I counted the beer openings from Tony. I think he drank nine beers. And um that still stands as a market huddle record by the way and I don't think it'll be eclipsed anytime soon. >> I'm here to defend it if it does. >> As long as they're freezing cold, Kev, they go down like chicklets, man. You know that. >> Okay. So, hop on the couch. We'll start with a question here. What was the moment you realized you wanted to be a trader? >> When my dad used to come home from work when I was a kid. My dad used to come home from work uh as he was he had an he eventually ran over the counter trading at Dean Witter but was a you know regular grunt trader and I won't say that I knew that I wanted to be a trader. I knew that I wanted to do what he did. When my dad came home from work he was energized. He was excited about what he had just been through. He was competitive. And I knew that there was something that seemed a lot different in what he did than for example my uncle Jack who was a regional bread salesman and my uncle John who worked for a cable company. You know what I mean? So I kind of felt that energy and I understood you know bid offers were dinner table conversation my whole life. So I guess quite honestly from an early early age I was like I think I want to do what my dad does. >> Oh that's awesome. Are you do you have siblings? >> My I have a younger sister, Gina. >> Okay. She did. She didn't have the trading bug. >> No, not at all. Not at all. She is a brilliant housewife. >> Okay. Um All right. Let's go on to the trade that you are most proud of in your career. >> Oh man. >> And I know you're going to be hesitant to tell us a good one. So don't worry, I'm going to give you a chance to tell us your worst one after this. But uh so the something that you're really proud of >> like when you think back to different trades something you really nailed that you know >> not just money like don't give me your necessarily the one where you made the most money but the one that you were most proud of. >> All right so I guess I guess the >> man it took a while but I I'll tell you that I had an unbelievable year in 2022. I'll say that I was the most proud of that because that kind of put me it gave me a lot of cred as a professional and my business really grew from there. So in 2022 it was just a call that inflation is here. The risk to the market is the bond market dislocating lower dealing with inflationary vibes. And I said all the money is going to come out of tech and all the money is going to go into natural resources. and I put both sides of that bed on and they both came up roses. So, I had a great year. I'm extremely proud of how that went. And I guess it was really because it dovetailed with my business and I was really, you know, I had been writing since 2016 and I laid out some winning trades and stuff like that, but I had never gotten, you know, when you if you kind of get the whole thing right and you never get it perfectly right, but when you see the major tectonic shift and you kind of are able to participate in both moves of it, that is a that is a blinding stimulus to your P&L. >> Yeah. >> Right. I'm always I've always got two things fighting each other, you know what I mean? And this is making money and that sucks and now this is making money and that's sucking when when they're both working. You you feel really smart. >> Do you remember the moment when that trade became clear to you and what was the walk us through kind of how you came about realizing it? So it was definitely part of my process that I developed as TG Macro developed meaning as I developed as a trader with no extraneous forces on me. Meaning I don't report to anybody else. I don't have to I don't have any other deadlines except my own and I study the markets the way I want. My process was always, you know, like it is now. The reason I don't mind sitting and chatting with you after a close on Friday is because I'm going to sit here for another couple of hours and digest what's going on in the markets. It's my favorite time to let things settle, decide what they did that week, and let that tell me something. So, I remember that, you know, there was just one week where we had an inflation number, rates go higher, and then I won't say it was out of the blue, but for the first time in a while, large magnitude moves higher in natural resources while getting large magnitude moves lower in big tech. And the first time I saw that, I was like, "This is [ __ ] wild." And this is exactly what should continue if inflation, you know, and now inflation had been up around five or six%. And it was like, if inflation continues, we're going to, you know, there's going to be another trade, another leg of this. And I have to say that I had it on small. I I put it on small when I saw that. And then as I saw it developing that way, I leaned into it and had a couple of two-week periods that I completely slaughtered it. And that that was the difference in making it a big P&L trade and getting the whole thing right. You know, if you when you feel like you got it right and you lean into it and that works. And like I said, it was one of those years where I had both directions right. I timed everything beautifully and it was from noticing that one week where everything kind of the whole picture kind of unfold the whole mosaic cleared up for me. >> Right. And then not only that, it started behaving exactly as you wanted. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So that was like they got out of the gate with this big move and it made me like it made the hair on the back of my neck stand up. I was like are we really going to go into a period where we have large magnitude shifts happening in the same week like this? Yeah. And that's very much what we got. So, and I took profit. You know, it was one of those things where you had it on, you had it on, you're like, "Okay, we made the money on this trade and let's get out." >> That's awesome. Okay, so now we did the one that you'd like to remember the most. Let's talk about the trade you'd like to most likely want to forget. >> Well, I blew up an account. >> Okay, so tell us about that. >> Yeah, you know, I made a lot of money. I had an account, Kev, that I, you know, put it this way. I threw a bunch of money in. It was kind of a new phase of my career. here. I was at Dolman Rose for a while and I kind of wanted to get I I I wanted to start taking more risk in the markets. It was around the financial crisis. To make this long story short, and I could tell the story in one sentence because it's so effing dumb, but by playing shortdated put options in the S&P, I literally 10xed account 10xed an account on the way down over the course of like six months. Okay. >> Right. Leverage, leverage, leverage, leverage. We getting towards the bottom of the move. Um, David Ter is on TV and he says, "Yeah, you know, the Fed's just gonna, you know, basically print this whole thing away." And I was like, "Yeah, right. >> I remember that one." Yeah, he >> Yeah, right. Oh, okay. So, big boy David Temper causing a little bounce here. I'm going to wait in the weeds and I'm going to get a get a resistance level and I am going to let Mr. Ter and company have it. And uh I did that about three times and wiped myself out way back up. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. And then I shut the account back down um and stopped trading for three years. >> Three years. >> Yeah. >> Oh wow. >> Yeah. It was bad, man. I mean the mental the visceral agony of taking So the numbers were I put in 70 grand into account. And I got it up to 700 something and then I closed it at like 53K. >> Yeah. >> And mentally, I mean, you should you don't ask my wife what I was like during that period of time. It was it was the ugliest, worst form of myself that I've ever been. And so that's why it was almost like a drug addict where I was like, I have to stop doing this. >> Right. >> What did you learn from that? Like how did you change like when you came back? What did you >> Humility, man. I had a lot of humility. I learned a lot about pivoting. I learned a lot about being more flexible. I learned I learned to listen and understand other people's views and and have them affect me more than having my chest out and saying, "I'm going to run that view over because I'm still right." You know what I mean? Like I had this period during the tape where I was dead right, >> you know, and and felt really good about it. I just thought that this move was destined to keep going, >> you know, and I really thought the writing was on the wall for a big big collapse in the stock market. And you know, and that was a pivotal point when Temper was on TV. I wish I could remember what month it was, but I mean, that was pretty much close to the bottom, if not the bottom. And it took me just a couple of episodes of doubling down over the course of like a two-eek period that literally I lost like a couple of hundo. >> Yeah. >> In the course of a couple of trades, you know what I mean? And I was like, "Holy [ __ ] like I am dead wrong." And and and that was the learning experience was being like, look at these trades that you were putting on, like buying puts in a market that is rifling off the bottom. You know what I mean? And you're and you're like a deer in the headlights because your capital's getting combusted so fast that you're just looking to like roll down the curve and like buy another one. >> Yeah. >> You know, and and you're and you're like you look back on I literally look back on the trades and I was like this is a picture of a crack addict. like there's no trading. There's like, you know what I mean? Like >> because your brain stops working. You don't people until you've been there. And listen, and it's very kind of you to share with everyone because a lot of people they pretend like this never happened and they've never done that. But the reality is that we've all traded on tilt in essence. That's what you were trading on tilt. >> Yes. Trail. >> Um and we and we've all done it different degrees and different aspects. But you stopped thinking. And I still go back. back. I love to tell the story about George Soros. He would go on a Friday afternoon when things were going bad and he would fax because it was way back when faxes were how you traded. He would fax his entire portfolio to Goldman Sachs and say, "Get me out of it." And so they would just zero the account and then he would come back Monday morning and start again. And it was and he, you know, he related how shocking it was how the stocks that he thought he was going to buy back, he was like, "Oh, no. I don't need to buy it back." Like I I don't know about you, but I found that numerous times. Like you start to take something off the sheets and then you realize I don't like it as much as I thought I liked it. >> Yeah. No, for sure. Got it. you know, you you think it's the right thing and you get in it and you start to feel the P&L and you have to make decisions, you know, from, you know, that's always thing that that's harder for me is that I'm much I mean, everybody is, you know, we're all much better from a position of strength. >> Yeah. >> No matter what, the odds of you making a brilliant decision from a position of weakness that returns you to a position of strength are low. >> Yeah. >> You know what I mean? Like I'm I always develop getting myself into a position of strength from zero from zero into a little bit of risk to oh I think I got this right let me add quickly to oh it just broke a big level I'm going to add again that that's when I'm like you know that's when I feel like I'm driving the bus and you have to realize in the absence of that feeling when you're fighting things and you're having conversations in your head and waking up in the middle of the night like oh [ __ ] I didn't think of that you know and uh it just gives you a little bit more humility to stay a little bit more flexible, flexible thinking, a little more nimble trading. >> Yeah. All right. So, let's move on and let's talk about a little bit about markets now. Um, well, not really. We're not going to talk about your opinions yet, but I my next question for you on the trading couch is >> what s like you've learned a lot over these many years, decades of trading and writing and doing all these different things, but what still surprises you today about markets? Like what what do you go, "Oh my gosh, I can't believe that." >> Oh my god, there's like nine things. Which one do you want to talk about right now? >> Okay. Well, just tell me any of them. >> You know what I mean? You know. All right. So here it's uh Nvidia reports this week good earnings good revenues stocks down uh 3 4% wait what is it down on the week it's down yeah 3 4% on the week it is the biggest member of the semiconductor index SMH SMH is up 4% this week to a new all-time high close >> you want to explain that one >> yeah I'm with you there's a lot of weird things that just happen and like >> yeah you You know what I mean? And how about the fact that we've got rates rifling higher and we've got a 25% semiconductor growth stock rally right into the hockey stick of higher yields. >> Yeah, >> I lost pretty much I lost I mean I missed that whole move. I you know what I mean? I can't get long semiconductors when I'm like frothing at the mouth over inflation and techn I mean and commodity stocks and things like that, you know? So, I missed that. >> Um are you can I ask you I'm I'm born 1970. Are you are you roughly the same? Like >> years older. 68. >> You're 68. Okay. So, you were around for the dot bubble. >> Yep. >> Uh did you ever think that we would do it again? >> You know, that's that's that's funny. I didn't think that I would be looking back in my career at some point going, "Yeah, that's like another one of the dot um great financial crisis, you know, um April uh what was it? The uh Trump tariff war, the thousand points down and back, you know, it's like, oh my god, like another one." Like I I really didn't think I'd be dealing with something so big that happened so many times, >> you know, over the course of the last 35 years. Like that was pretty dramatic. >> That Well, that's how I feel. I I I so I remember the do and thought, "Okay, I just experienced a once-in-a-lifetime thing that will never occur again." Yes. >> And I I'm glad I was there. And then I'm like, "Shit, we do this more often than I ever imagine." >> Yeah. That's the crazy part, man. And it's it's like the nature of our I don't know. I feel like it's the nature of our kind of greedy, capitalistic, financially engineered society a little bit without getting too like, you know, negative and [ __ ] >> Yeah. >> You know what I mean? And it's like we always just find something else like you know there's always going to be another meme stock that is like whoa there it goes and there's always going to be another Bitcoin where there's some craze and I've got maniacs texting me on Saturday morning you see this thing. >> Yeah. >> You know like there there's just always something. >> So how do you think markets have changed though? Let's just talk about that. The difference between 1990 the late 1990s when we were first starting and then the markets today. Well, we had the, you know, the whole invasion of electronic trading was to me the biggest scar that we've left on the markets. You know, it was there was a sense of orderliness and a sense of almost more decorum when there were human beings being be trading bidding and offering in the ring and making eye contact and trading size at a price. >> Yeah. there was a lot more confidence in the market and then everything you know from I guess the mid 2000 O's or so when you know the Goldman brought all the trading upstairs and everything went electronic and then everything went into the wood chipper. >> Yeah. you know, and now, you know, and like so years as an execution trader, you know, you used to get bored taking orders from all your clients and be like, "Yeah, just be a percentage of volume. Just be a percentage of volume." And you'd start buying a stock and it'd be up 1% since you got it. Yeah. >> And you'd say, "Hey, are we It's up a percent here. Do you want me to stay with Yeah, stay with it. Just be a percentage." Click. >> Hey, it's up 2% here. Do I stay with this? Yeah, let's be 20% of the volume. And is there any price that you don't care? like is there anything besides just go along, you know? So, but but you know, to that point, it was that that to me has always been the standout sore thumb change that I kind of had to get through. >> Okay. >> You know, because I I do remember the order orderliness and I do remember, you know, I remember putting together size prints on our trading desk, you know what I mean? where you would get together and you'd have four parties participating in a six million share Delta Airlines print, you know what I mean? And that stuff don't go on anymore. >> Yeah. You know, if they there is a print, it's just Citadel on the other side. >> That's it. Period. Right. >> Yeah. Uh I actually think that to your point about the the chipper and for those who don't know the chipper is the algo is like the machine that does it. That's what people old Kromagins like us call it the wood chipper. >> Yeah. Exactly. >> Um I I think it's changed the way that stocks behave. >> Yes. >> And and and one of the big things to your point is that in the old days a stock would go up and if it spike it would often get a chance to buy it back and you could like you could provide liquidity. Now stock goes up and then it just chips higher for the rest of the day. So just everyone just you know is is forced to just chase it like >> Yeah. Yep. it it it really has changed the way that stocks behave. And then the other thing I I find, I don't know if you agree with this, but nobody looks at it during the day. And to your point about the client that was just saying, uh, you know, uh, you know, just keep with it. Just keep with it. I just want to buy it. And and I I remember this and I've told this story before, but like I remember at one point GE had this announcement, stock was up, was trading lots and then like halfway through the day the announcement came back then and it ended up being that the the whole reason it was up was like wrong and all of a sudden I said, "Hey, great." And I started leaning on it. Stock sagged for a tiny little bit and then within kind of half an hour the chippers took over and went I went higher. And at the end of the day, we closed on the highs. And I thought to myself, well, I guess I'm an idiot. I just don't understand anything. And then the next day, we got up and the chippers went the other way because the reality was that no portfolio manager was going to change his his or her order midday. And to some extent, I actually think the market's become less efficient. I don't know, you know, do you have a comment or thoughts on that? >> Well, you know, I I it's less efficient. I agree in a way. You know, of course it's less efficient when it's kind of like there's no there's no ring to walk into and say, "How's D?" and have all the people that are sellers put their hand up and go, "I'm at a half. I got 300 at 60. I got 500 at 80." Right? You get the depth of book. Whereas now, you know, you look at any montage and it's one by one, you know, then it's really a thousand hidden and it's really 10,000 hidden and you really can't see anything at all. >> Yeah. Um, and then that, you know, that the other difference was kind of was, you know, we p we played we paid close attention to what the players were doing, especially in the ring, right? Where you'd see a paper broker come in and this guy's bought 500 lots and the Refgo brokers in five days in a row buying 500 to a,000 lots, right? That's, you know, that's one trader with a position out there at Refco that has long is long 2500 or 3,000 lots and you're gonna know when he comes back to sell it. >> Right. >> Right. You're going to see it come off the same phone. You're going to be like, "Hey, this is the Refo the buy that bought 3,000 two days ago, you know?" And there was a little bit of that and I may be I may be making I may be simplifying it a little bit, but there was always information in that, you know, that was floor guy information and that was really valuable. And so now it's just like traffic going by and you don't know who anything is or what anybody's doing or anything like that. So it's total anonymous one lot trading. >> Yeah. >> And there's no information available. What the only information you have is the tire tracks on the chart and that and that's pretty much it. >> All right. Let's talk a little bit about retail versus institutional. And I don't know about you and you have been uh in the institutional square but you talked to a lot of retail. Um, what do you think retail gets wrong about institutional trading? Like what do they think about institutions that is just under like wrong? I don't I don't think retail understands quite honestly. You know, the the thing that I learned becoming an institutional sales trader, I think, was when I got to cover a couple of really big plain vanilla accounts and I learned how, you know, a stock market breaks down big on say whatever, say we're in the middle of a crisis and you're thinking to yourself, you're like, who the hell is going to buy this, right? And then you start covering plain vanilla accounts with 10 and 20 and 30 year time horizons. So in, you know, Fortune 500 companies, these guys got to buy something when it goes down 10%. You know, they got to buy wads of it when it goes down 15%. God forbid a Fortune 500 company is 25% on sale. They're not they're going to just keep coming. You know what I mean? And I was always in the retail world, I was always like, why isn't this thing coming apart? Like, what's taking so long? Who's buying freaking stocks here? You know what I mean? And then you turn your jacket around and you're an institutional broker and the market's down huge and all you're doing is buying four million shares of Philip Morris if you can, you know what I mean? Or >> buying, you know, >> you're stopping it. You're in essence stopping the >> decline. You're stopping the freef fall and everybody's looking around going, "Why did this thing stop going down?" Like, you know what I mean? everything around it is continuing to blow up. >> Yeah. >> And so I think that's one thing that uh and then at the same time, you know, well, you didn't ask me this question, so I don't need to I don't want to go there, but I think retail has become a little bit more of a respected >> Okay. Well, let me ask the question. >> Yeah. >> What does institutional get wrong about retail? >> They fade them every time. And that and that's not necessarily the play because believe it or not I feel like for whatever reason thousands of retail individuals with a similar idea about trading can often in in certain scenarios overcome institutional flow >> 100%. >> Right. And I and I feel like we saw that during the you know the tariff war that that thousand point down and back >> was you know European institutions >> the US is now uninvestable right and the retail buyer is like BTFD bro like buy this buy that like you know we're we're not going anywhere and then all of a sudden they're 15 20% in the money and they're not even thinking about selling stuff they were just collecting this stock along the way. >> Yeah. >> Right. like retail, we're not selling this stuff until we get old and and pass it on to our kids or whatever, you know? So, that's a really powerful dynamic. That's a lot of flow. >> Yeah. It used to be you'd want to sell to the dentist. Now, you want to ask what the dentists are thinking. >> Yeah. Yeah. If there's that many of them, right? You're like, "Wait a minute, there's this many dentists buying like, okay, I'm going to consider them, you know, I'm going to give them some I'm going to hold give put some weight there." >> Yeah. In in terms of liberation day, I remember I was talking to another buddy of mine um who was uh >> a traitor like me, but he was talking about what his like we call them civilians, what his civilian friends were doing. And he said, "Every single one of my civilian friends was phoning me up asking me what to buy." And he said there was nobody scared. He he was just like and and it was very it was a big clue like in terms of the reality was that the institutions were more scared than the retail. Um, one of the things that I found in terms of institutions is that everyone thinks that they, oh, they have all this, they have all this advantage and they have all this information and I'm like, they're just humans like the rest of us and they make huge mistakes and I I don't know about you, but I traded against them and had to provide liquidity for them. So, they don't scare me as much. Like, I saw them do stupid trades just like anybody else. >> Yeah. >> Right. >> Yeah. What's wild, Kev, is that it's like um it used I I I would say like, how do I want to put this? You know, you used to the institution used to want want to automatically fade retail. Retail now, you know, the institution was always looking for the p the place where retail was going to puke out of something so that they can buy it. And now it's kind of like retail waits for a fund to blow up. So when that blow up hits the tape, they they go in and buy things, right? Like the retail trader is not like a okay, I'm down 10% on this. I've got to stop out. >> That's the pod shop. >> They're bag holders. You know what I mean? >> It's the pod shop that's getting stopped out now. It's it's almost like they've traded p places. >> Yeah. And the and somehow the retailer is kind of a bag holder and he's not really a puer at lower prices. that when it goes down, he looks at his account and he's like, "Well, I got some cash to put to work." >> Yeah. >> You know, I'm not broke. I got cash. Well, I'm down on these positions, but I can buy this cheap and buy that cheap. I like doing that. And and it's worked. >> All right. Let's talk about what um people get wrong because we're talking about all the things they're doing, right? >> But if you were to say the the error that you see individuals, whether it be retail or institutional, uh what mistake do you see them make over and over again? They undertrade in my opinion and it goes >> under trade. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I think you know when I look at it like so this here this is my this is my perspective Kev. One of my products I speak to people individually right about tactical trading risk management things like that. And what I notice is that people don't come in like the retail trader doesn't come in with a game plan like I do as an institutional trader. Like I've got a list of stocks that I'm following and watching and at this price I'm going to engage and at this price I'm going to engage and I'm going to change my position a little bit here. The retail guys come in and they're like yeah I don't really think I need to do any trades today. You know I'm like I've got this on and I'm like and I'm like you know you're long this. It's getting away from the moving averages. Like are you going to wear this gold miners? Are you going to wear this stuff all the way back into the moving averages if it goes Oh yeah. Okay. Yeah that's fine. That's down 25%. You don't want to make a sale here. Gold miners are never 40% above their 200 day moving average. You don't want to make a sale. No, I don't really want to make a sale. So there, that's why I think where me personally, I'm like, that's a reason to lighten the boat. You know, if I if gold miners are never 40% above their moving average, I look around and everybody's bullish gold miners, I'm selling 25% of my position. >> Yeah. >> Just so that I could buy it back, but they're just like, no. It's hard for a lot of people because at that point when everyone's bullish like you and I >> looking for everyone's like, "Oh, we got another 30% coming here, you know." >> Yeah. Just like when you were way back when when you were bearish when it was going down, it's almost like you've learned that and you you have to fade it. The other thing I would say about that is at the very least if you had a big rally in it, you're become overweight in it. Bring it back to like your benchmark. >> Totally. >> At the very least. >> And I don't think that they like to do that either. You know what I mean? You know, I I like I know people that bought Tesla and stuff and never sold a share at the highs and you're like, you know what I mean? Like you got a three bagger in this thing and it's just like we're going to say we're going to this is a m Everybody thinks in retail that gets a stock right thinks that it's their magic carpet ride to wealth and that they don't have to never touch it again for the rest of their life. >> Well, they've been right on a couple though and a couple sitting there with our human hands instead of our diamond hands. Uh Tony. All right. Okay. So, let's end with a couple last personal questions here for the trading coach before we start talking about the markets. Your trading weaknesses that you're still working on. Um, I get, you know, I'm big on trying to play offense when I can and I'm I'm big on forcing myself when the So, I like to I like to upsize when I feel like I've got something right. Right. And, and I guess I've been working on making sure that I do so that I make the money. I guess it's hard to explain. And it's like if you're only going to be right 55% of the time, then you've got to make the money when you're right. And so you've got to force yourself to upsize sometimes. And that's the thing that I I've been both hesitant and too like uh I don't know, too much of a candy ass with, you know, I guess I need a better plan. And I'm I'm I'm trying to figure out how to like really hit pressure points where when I'm right in a trade, I can upsize, take a chunk out, and then get back to fighting weight. And I'm trying to get better at that. And I'm really I'm still struggling to to to see how I want to I don't know if I'm making sense right now. >> No, no, I get it. You're understanding you're you're you're you're working on trying to figure out how to really maximize when you're correct. >> Yeah, that that that's like a big conundrum for me right now. And I won't say that I'm never able to do it, but I'm really trying to figure out how to be like, you know, be confident in buying a big chunk, being long for a short period of time and taking that off and being like, okay, that, you know, because then you increase your profitability as a trader, >> right? >> You know, if you only write a couple of things and it's really trying to dial into on my pad like, okay, what have I what have I got right? Not what do I think is right, like what is definitely have I got this right and how can I capitalize in this? That's kind of one of the things that I'm forcing myself to try to get better at. Now, >> I don't know if you're a weak that's a trading weakness for you, but I'll take it that you're still working on it. Um, uh, cuz actually I've watched you and I, when I think about you and your strengths, I >> I think about you as somebody who pushes winning trades much more so than most. >> And that's how I think about it. Like, I'll be like, "Oh, I I've seen you. You'll be like long gold. It'll feel like this thing's overbought. It'll feel like I'm scared and I'll be long too and I'm be wanting to peel some back and you'll be like, I'm going for it. It's going a lot higher and it's like Tony Greer just going for it. So, I I hear you and I guess that's why you're so good at it because you're still working on it. Last question for the trading coach and then we'll get to the the current market. How do you deal with losses and losing periods? very pragmatically, you know, like the one thing that I can do like I look, so we just had I I just had a big huge upswing in my P&L and then a big draw down, right? But what I've done is in a very orderly fashion got out of the things that are too risky or have broken down technically and I don't let myself lose any more more than like 10 or 15% on any tactical trading position, you know, like I'm not a bag holder. That's one of the things I pride myself on. And I am kind of I guess I'm able to rightsize things so that I can just flip in and out of them comfortably. I don't know if that makes sense. >> No, I got it. Um, what about from a personal point of view? Do you find like you are better off take walking away, doing stuff with the family? Like from a mental health kind of thing, what do you do? >> Yeah, you know, that's one thing that I've gotten better at. you know, when you know, in in the sort of I think it's the Tony Daden um theme that's finally worked into me from listening to Grant Williams interview Tony Dayton and Tony Dayton's philosophy is like know why you're in things. You know, if you kind of know why you're in things, then you can tolerate some price movement and you don't have to be as all over, you know, watching it all the time. You know what I mean? if you know what you're why you're in it, if you know your pad is set up a certain way and you're like, "Yeah, I want to have this on. I want to have this on. I want to have this on." I don't have to check the tape every 5 seconds. And so that's been that's been a sort of as my business has grown and I've had to, you know, do other things as a manager and stuff like that. I can get my book to a spot where there may be a lot of risk on, but I'm okay with it and I'm okay leaving it because I know that for a couple of days I'm going to be okay. Like, and no matter what, I'm not changing it, right? >> You know what I mean? where there's something out on the calendar and it's like, well, I'm waiting for this Friday thing and so the market can do whatever the hell it wants. I'm waiting to see how Nvidia closes on Friday and I'm going to make my decision based on that. Got it. >> So, I guess I guess making things taking the emotion out of decisions, taking the emotion out of sales, having a sort of a very rigorous discipline of like, dude, down 10 15% you're gone. So, if you can't buy something with a stop-loss that's only 10 15%, then you got to wait for it to get closer, >> right? >> And I've gotten good at that. >> Okay. Well, Tony, thank you very much for being a a member or talking to us on the trading coach. Now, let's go to the actual stocks and the current environment. We'll talk about what we're seeing. And you've kind of already alluded to it. It's a difficult environment. And I know we were chatting before the show and I was saying that a lot of people are feeling the pressure, the stress, like [ __ ] it feels like even the bulls are like not having fun. I don't I don't know if that's just me cuz I'm not a bull, but it feels like even them are they're frustrated with all the tape bombs, the volatility, the all over the map. >> Let's just start with how do you see the current environment? What are you looking for? What's what's on your mind? So, what I'm looking for, you know, look, like everybody else right now, I am baffled by the oil price and how it is only $97 with the straight closed for four weeks. Uh, no, what what is it? Three months now. Is that right? >> Yeah. No, it's a long it's it's 80 days, isn't it? >> Yeah. So, it's it's practically three months. >> Yeah. >> Um, you know, dealing with the idea that the oil price would normally, I would think, be a lot higher or that we're going to get there eventually. And the idea that you wake up every day and the strait isn't opening at all and the Iran conflict isn't over and oil sells off another5$10 and you're like how does that happen? How do like you know what I mean? So that that's frustrating to try to navigate once you've pivoted into the energy sector so that you can make up for some of the money you're giving back in the industrial miners that you're long. Right. >> So you know you've I I did that trade. I came in long industrial miners on the year and gold miners. I bought energy stocks to sort of have that hedge on. And what I'm expecting quite honestly is at this point I think one of I have to decide which parts of my book is going to be successful. >> Yeah. >> Right. I'm either going to have to pitch the industrial miners and energy is going to stay higher for longer or Trump is actually going to get the oil price back down to 80 bucks and the gold miners and industrial miners are going to take off again and we're going to go right back. I'm telling you at some point to the death of fiat currency trade that that we were in kind of coming into this year where you know gold is rallying, silver's rallying, platinum's rallying, you know, the yen is blowing up. We're focused on you know the US deficits and our debt and the private credit market. I mean that whole thing went away with the Iran war, right? We had this big private credit issue and then we went to war and now it's fine. Nothing like a war to fix that. >> Yeah. Private credit issue. Exactly. >> By the way, in terms of the oil, one of the things that I find interesting is that a lot of folks will be like, "Oh, the oil's not up." And I be like, >> you know, if you look at the roll yield and what you're actually accomplished by being long, Brent, like I'm just pulling up BNO because that's the easiest way to to approximate it. >> We're $5 from the all-time high and it's sitting there. It's still significantly up from where it was. And there there's like I think that folks are overly frustrated about the the oil long. Like I get it. It's not moving as much as they want it to move, but it's still being a good trade from the long side. >> It is. And you're picking up three bucks a month and roll. >> Yeah. Right. So, it's like, you know, it's a pleasure to stay long this stuff right now. It really is. And and especially since the entire calendar year is widening out. you know, it's just like it's just tightening as we're having these massive draws, which I guess is is um makes sense, but you would think that the flat price would be a lot higher than it is now. That at least I would. >> Yeah. I So, you know, and we've got all the we've got all these inventories now that are draining. So, >> well, so that's what's happening. And the reality is, I don't know what you found, but when I'm talking to guys at pod shops and other people, the the the volatility on the oil is so large, they're the speculators like they don't want to spend their VAR budget, you know, being long oil and >> it's not Yeah. It's not even a big spec position. It's like 200,000 contracts right now. It's nothing. And so I so I think what's happening is that the cash price is sitting there because we're draining all these like SPRs and and and they're they're making sure it stays in in line. And the reason that we're not getting a big, you know, rally is because the market isn't forward looking because the reality is that most speculators can't speculate on it because it's too volatile. That's the thing is that the this it feels like all of a sudden the market gave up its forward-looking mechanism. >> Yeah. >> You know what I mean? At some level where it's like, oh, the supply chains are all cut here. There's going to be issues with phosphates and fertilizers and food shortages and this and that. And you know, for a while you'd look up at the grain market and you're like, this thing isn't moving. >> Right. >> And then finally there was the late breakout, but brains grains were the last to go >> and they really haven't gone to be fair. >> Gone. Exactly. I mean, they were off the bottom. sitting there. But in terms of the oil, one of the things that I wonder and I listen, I'm still torn about whether he's going to >> make a deal and just hightail out of there like and and I don't know how to forecast that, but let's just assume that he doesn't for a second because that's what all the the the real geopolitical nerds tell me. They're like, "Nope, Trump is not gonna allow this and we're we're he's gonna he's gonna stay tough." So, let's just assume that that's where it is. And I'm not saying that I believe that. But if that situation continues, it seems to me that we're going to have a contract where all of a sudden it will be like CO in reverse. Remember CO when we had that one contract that went from like 20 bucks to minus 40? >> Yeah. >> Because there was so many longs that just had nowhere to sell it into. >> Yeah. So, I I'm worried that that's in essence how this thing solves itself the other way, that it's a it's the shorts that can't deliver and and and we have $200, you know, Brent on on some weird month. I couldn't agree more, man. You know, we're draining the SPR to dangerous levels again. you know, after he was trying to fill it up, you know, pad, you know, all the pads are draining, the refineries are maxed out and going to be looking for where to get their next barrel at some point and it's just not going to be there. I I I couldn't agree more that that scenario is more than a tail probability in my opinion. I mean, I think that's got to be a 25 30% probability at this point in my head whether that's right or wrong. So, so let's just walk through this and and and you've already highlighted one of the things that you're worried about because you're sitting there and you're long these uh you know materials. >> Mhm. >> And I'm sympathetic to that too and I think that they're behaving a little better now and and that maybe it's time to own them again. But anyways, uh I'll let you tell me what you think. But in terms of if we did get that spike, does that just kill everything? >> It very well could, man. In my opinion, it's going to eventually be the commodity strength that topples the semi bubble, you know, in terms of everybody's going to be there. There's going to be something where semis run into a brick wall and all of the money that just rushed into them in this last three months. Yeah. Is going to come rushing out and they're going to look at the top of the leaderboard and they're going to say, "Got it. Buy oil stocks, rare earths, natural resources, and the BCOM." >> Okay? >> Right? because because interest rates are higher and we're going to be in an inflationary scenario. That's the thing that I'm kind of expecting and I'm kind of on I I'm waking up every day saying is this the day oil goes up 10 bucks and semis collapse? >> Oh, so you're looking for that trade to return almost like the trade of 2022 when you saw uh it it was a tech is a general but you're saying semis now versus natural resources. Yeah, I think that I think that eventually that semis are going to back off and all the money is going to come into natural resources because generally in in Kevin times of like you know in times of hot CPI prints all you have is traders like grabbing on to and hoarding commodities and hard assets for for all this inflationary scenario. >> Yeah. >> You know what I mean? Like that's how I saw before we got the headline inflation. We saw silver break out 20 bucks. Right. That's just somebody that's like, "Okay, this is enough, you know, consolidation in silver. We're going to have headline inflation on the tape. I want to be long silver for that, you know." And then the copper market went up a thousand bucks. >> The copper was a big surprise. Nobody was ready for that one. >> That was just somebody that was like, "We're going to have inflation. I want copper on my books for that." >> Yeah. And and people don't realize how small these uh those physical commodity markets are versus like the the bond market and the S&P market. >> Exactly. So once a little bit of that money that comes out of semiconductors once this thing pops comes into the natural resources markets, I think those trades get right back on their feet again. At least that's what I'm playing for and and I'm not going to make any money if I'm wrong. >> Do you think that if semis just rolled over naturally that that that it would see um a broadening of the market? And even if let's just imagine that there was that the inflation didn't get any worse. Let's just let's just imagine oil starts drifting lower um and yet semis come out. Do you think that the materials still have room to bounce even with that scenario? >> No, I don't. You know, I I'm I'm on the like I want I my trades will work best when with headline inflation. >> Okay. >> Like that that's kind of how I'm positioned now. Like my book is like hoping for a blowout CPI PPI number. >> You know what I mean? Like I feel like that'll be the right thing. rates will go higher, energy can go higher. Um, and I feel I still feel like higher rates are going to knock the tech market over at some point or or at least pop this semibubble that we're in. And I feel like this could be the beginning of it with Nvidia going down on earnings and semis going up like this just mad rush into the ETF space while people are getting out of the lead stock in the in the race. I don't know, maybe I have it wrong. Do when you talk about interest rates eventually weighing on stocks, do you think that there's a level or is it a a rate of change in the bond market? >> Are we close? >> Yeah, the rate of change is definitely a big deal as you know and yeah, I think you know I'm I'm more like you know I I've been saying for two years there's no trade in the bond market, >> right? rates are mean reverting and that is good for equities and I don't have to worry about it because when rates go up we get enough economic weakness that they go back down when they go back down we get enough inflation that they migrate higher and that's why a 10-year yield has been three and three/4ers been at four and three/4ers for three years. >> Yeah. >> So above four and three/4ers above 5% god forbid that's a fast rate of change that is going to put a stamp on the markets in my opinion. And do you think that's coming? Like are you worried about that like over the summer even? >> I do because I don't believe even if Trump a announces a peace or announces a >> even if Trump and Iran announce >> an end to the conflict, >> right? >> The fourth ship that tries to go through the straight is going to get blown up. >> Okay. Explain what you mean there. So, I just don't I don't trust the fact that a peace deal between UN US and Iran or or whoever makes tries to make a deal is going to mean that the strait is open for business 100% and we're going to have no hiccups from here on in. Like I just don't trust that at all. >> So, almost like you're you're arguing that the straight of Hermuz is permanently impaired. >> I am. I am. And I know that that could be wrong, but that's my that's my trading scenario is that that's going to be impaired for longer. Oil prices grind higher, headline inflation stays with us, rates have to go up, and then I'll decide how bad at 5% it's going to be for the equity market, that kind of thing. >> Got it. And do you worry about um something really coming undone in the bond market? Like do you think that the bond market leads uh a correction in financial assets? Like is that the like everyone all the old days everyone used to worry about the stock market. Oh, you know like just think back to 2022 or whatever when Biden was in charge. Everyone was talking about crashing stock market. Nobody talks about that anymore. Um is it going to be the stock market or the bond market that leads on the way down? >> Stock uh the bond market. >> You think so? >> Always the bond market in my opinion. You know, it's like one of those things where I don't I remember in '08 I had all of our customers that were high yield traders like saying to us like, "Dude, the stock market is a zombie. Like, our credits are our credit is getting crushed." You know what I mean? like how is the equity market still hanging in here? And I got to I I guess I'm just trained to see it that way where bonds move and you know it takes a while for all these PMs to kind of get shaken up, you know, by by selling before they have to come out and actually start clearing pads out like they did in 2022, selling all their tech stocks and stuff like that. So, I think that I think that bond dislocations lower cause higher yields and then there's a delayed reaction where stocks follow, but I could be wrong. That hasn't happened as as as part of this move, but I'm still looking for it. >> Do you have any theories of why it hasn't happened? Why the market has been so impervious to the rising rates? >> For whatever reason, semiconductors just keep performing. The AI bubble keeps getting bigger. the circular financing narrative has got everybody mesmerized and I don't think that they know how to monetize it yet. So, we're still we're still in this situation where you know they're playing a little bit of hot potato investing in each other and they're keeping the dream alive and they still don't have a way like I'm not paying for any AI use anywhere. Are you? I I I do pay for a little bit, but but yeah, I'm unusual in that I'm doing it for programming as opposed to like uh >> you're still in the minority, right? Like not a lot of people are out there saying, "Okay, where do I where do I sign up for my AI, you know, extra extra special service or anything like that?" >> Uh and I don't know if if institutions are at that level either. So, this is the this this is the one curveball that's throwing everything off in the market. I think Kev >> um speaking of this summer and the stock market continuing to rally uh we have SpaceX, Open AI and Anthropic. All three of them talking about coming out and uh when the ducks quack feed them. Hey bud. >> Dude, this is you know if we're looking for this trade to find a top then how can we not be looking for it to top with an IPO print on the board? >> I wish. >> You know what I mean? Like it would be such legendary poetic justice, you know what I mean? To get another AOL for Time Warner, you know, type of headline to be able to hang our hat on and say that was it. >> Yeah. I don't know if we're going to get a bio, but we might get the SpaceX might be the top. I see Novagrass. He was talking about that a month ago or two. >> There's going to be such a vacuum of capital into that thing, man. That >> That's the part that I don't think enough people are giving you enough credit for. Like we've had retirement of equity issuance and because of the buybacks have been higher than the option issuance and now all of a sudden for the first time in years we're actually going to get net credit supply of of equity issuance. >> It's a big deal. >> It's a big deal. Like like even I I've been kind of struggling with this because everyone's expecting it to happen on the day of the IPO. >> Yeah. >> And I'm like actually if I'm a PM and I'm putting in for these and I'm going to get big fills, I'm selling before then. >> Yeah. Yeah. Probably. Probably. Right. Getting your book in shape to take this position onto it. Right. And you're not doing it you're not doing it like six months before. doing it like you know the month before >> days or like 12 two months I mean a week before. Yeah. >> So I I don't know it it feels it feels really dangerous to me. Okay let's talk a little bit US dollar cuz I I think you could make the case both ways under your inflationary scenario. How do you think it plays out? >> You know it's it's not doing anything for me the dollar index. You know, it was great to have the yen combusting for the gold trade and for the metals trade back before we got into the Iran war. Yeah. >> So, that was a really cool >> a really cool tailwind indicator to the metals trade. You know what I mean? You you knew that when there were like large magnitude breakdowns in yen that there was going to be flow into gold, you know, and you could trade that, you know, that was a really really cool dynamic. Now, you know, it was bid only for the Iran war. Then we backed off because not sure why we even backed off. To me, you know, the dollar index has been 98 bid at 100 and until it leaves that range, I don't know. Um, it's all it has been is a slight and not even that effective um, you know, counterdriver to the commodities tape, right? Bid dollar means a little bit heavy commodities. Heavy dollar means kind of bid in the metal space and the signal hasn't been that powerful either. >> Got it. >> You know, you know where the where if there's a big down move in the dollar, not all the metals are exploding on that day. You know what I mean? Maybe just gold goes up a little and >> because the positioning is focused in those spaces now. So the dynamics are constantly changing and the dollar index for me it's it's always going to be just another odometer on my speed on my dashboard that I use to let me to tell me how much risk I can take in stocks right like I'm not I'm not a guy that's ever going to sit there with a big dollar position or a big bond position you know I'm I'm a stock trader and I just use those to let me know how much >> Okay I didn't realize that you don't take big positions in the actual other macro >> no not at all I mean you know I have views and like to let them trend in front of me if or not trend which is kind of what I feel like rates and the dollar are doing. >> Um so that's giving me some confidence in some of my equity positions but if the dollar gets north of 100 then you know there's probably going to be some kind of an attack on the commodity space. >> Okay. Um let's talk a little bit about gold precious metals. You give us your opinion there. And then also I've been thinking about platinum. I'd love to hear what you think about that. >> So um I have a very specific view. I traded platinum group metals for a little while at Goldman Sachs and really largely got beat up in those markets. Um I feel that they are a little bit now while there is total merit to the trades especially when we're in this scenario where metals are rallying and we were in a scenario there for a little while where it was like gold takes off and there goes silver there goes palladium there goes platinum right like it was just every other day it was >> I feel that those are a little bit they become a little bit of a trap. >> Okay? >> You know, and I feel like when platinum is going up in sympathy with gold and silver, while there's probably a great fundamental case, all of a sudden I hear these people talking about platinum that otherwise really are not into the platinum group metals that much. You know what I mean? >> Yeah. >> So, it feels like it's one of those things where like in Jared Dillian's parliament like sometimes a lot of the [ __ ] get on board, you know what I mean? And you don't want to be around, you know? And I'm not calling you a can use that as a title. Sometimes a lot of the [ __ ] get off. >> Well, it was like one of those things where like when uranium was at the highs and all of a sudden everybody on Twitter's a uranium expert, you know, Jared Dillian's like, I don't know, man. There's a lot of [ __ ] in the uranium trade, which is fair, >> you know. >> So, when I'm when I'm in something and and you'll be like, "Oh [ __ ] there's Mu. He's along this thing. The [ __ ] must be full." >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. >> Okay. Gold then. give us your opinion on gold. >> Gold is doing exactly what I want it to do in my book. It's it's holding on to value. It's holding the trend technically. It's low volatility while a lot of the other stuff is high volatility. Uh I still believe that the trade that central banks are buying is gold. And so for me, that's the tip of the kind of, you know, that that's kind of where I want to run my offense through. >> Okay? >> You know what I mean? is kind of I want to run my offense through the bullish move in gold. Um the bullish move in metals and things like that. So I'm fine with what gold is doing. People and I love the fact that people are like, "Ah, gold stopped rallying. It doesn't look so good anymore." Blah blah blah. It's 4,500 bid and it's holding in there. And if you've been in this trade for a while, you sleep like a baby at night. >> Got it. >> You know, so that's that's the thing where gold to me is just beautiful. I use, you know, in another nod to Tony Dayton, I find myself storing more money in gold. >> Yeah. >> You know, and kind of taking it out and using gold as the bank where when I want to buy other things, I sell gold and then go buy that other thing. >> Got it. >> You know, you know, and where whereas I kind of rather than having wads of gold and wads of cash, I kind of just I'm more comfortable having it all in gold. >> Got it. >> You know, that kind of thing. >> All right. Uh Tony, we're getting towards the end. Um, what question would you have asked that I didn't ask? >> Let's see. I would say, you know, the thing that I'm always interested in and I wake up every day thinking is what's going to be the sector that wins the race at the end of the year. >> Okay. So, what is >> I think it's going to be rare earths rare earth metals this year. Yeah. I I like Jeff Curry's comment that China has kind of weaponized the um periodic table. >> Okay. and rare earths were, you know, rare earths were kind of in the background behind the metals trade. And then what's interesting to me, when oil took off and energy stocks leapfrogged the mining stocks, rare earth metals went right to the top of the mining stock leaders in terms of performance. Like that that sector is kind of like screeching across new highs. And I think it's because it's it's kind of that resource nationalism trade where we're all in a kind of a scramble, you know, for for where our rare earths are going to come from with China being, I guess, maybe a little bit more antagonistic, you know, and not as playing as nicely as they could be. So, if I had to guess, I think that that's going to be it. Got it. Okay. We can't let you leave without talking about uh I figure this is the best question to ask you. There's something called Desert Island Discs and um that's a show on BBC and what the the uh hosts do is they ask celebrities uh what if they were stuck on a desert island what their 10 albums or bands they use albums but we're going to use bands the 10 albums or bands that they would be want to stuck on the island. Now we're not going to do 10 because that's way too much. We're going to do three. So I'm going to make you and I'm I'm springing this on you so I feel bad but I figured you're a professional. you can handle this. And I'm pausing a little bit and talking a little bit so you can think. Um, you got to come up with your three best desert island discs or bands or albums that you would want. And then we're going to do one is your desert island trader. You can have anyone throw time, anybody you want. You could take Jesse Livermore, you could take whatever, whoever you want and why you would choose them. So, let's start with the three album slashbands. >> All right. So, I start right off the bat. I don't even have to think about it. Exile on Maine by the Rolling Stones to me is one of the best albums of all time. One of the most versatile albums of all time. Um, then I go into, you know, I probably choose Bob Marley Babylon by Bus. Oh, >> you know, I'm uh I I kind of I feel like if I was going to be stranded on a desert island that I would want some kind of a reggae buzz, >> you know, I'm really shocked, Tony. That's not in you. That That's really shocking that you like reggae. >> Really? >> Not No, I'm being sarcastic. I know you. >> Yeah, exactly. So, um Yeah. So, that's the other thing that that's that would be the second one. And then if you force a third on me, man. You know, I love I go with Derek and the Dominoes. >> Oh, that's a good choice. >> Live at the Fillmore. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> You know, >> that's a good choice. >> Basically, because Got to Get Better in a Little While was an anthem for me after 911 and uh I always get strength from that song and I love that album. I think that's the best time period of Clapton's career. Got it. Those are great choices. Thanks, man. Yeah. Great. Okay. So, what's your trader? Who's your trader you're taking? >> So, how does this question go? What trade? He's going to be hanging out with me on the island. >> You're going to be allowed to trade. You're not going to be able to talk to anybody, but you're still going to be allowed to send in your orders. Who do you want to help you trade? >> I mean, Steve Cohen, man. >> Oh, yeah. you know, I I I covered him as a sales trader and, you know, did some I really learned a lot about trading from from covering 72, you know, and the way that he and his pods would attack sectors. Um, and you know what I really respected, you know, about them was, you know, they'd be buying a by, for example, we bought millions of shares of, you know, a steel stock at, you know, $14, you know, one year over one season and we bought like 10 million shares of it. So, I had made a lot of money on that. And the stock comes in after earnings up $7 or something like that. And I'm like, and the sack phone rings and you're like, "Oh my god, are we going to sell this 9 million shares?" >> Well, how does it look on the opening? Uh, you know, when we're talking about it's like, you know, up eight, it's already been up from where they bought it and now it's coming in up $7 into the 30s and you're like, my god, they're going to let him have the whole thing here. How is it? It looks 30 bid at 31. Take an order to buy 2 million. Don't either, guys. After your own heart, man. >> Yeah. You know what I mean? >> They know how to push a trade that's winning. >> I'm just saying. You know what I mean? Like, but when you when you're when you're you know what I mean, Kev, when you're in the heat of that trading moment. >> Yeah. >> Right. And it's the pre-opening and the ring bell rings from the freaking company that, you know, bought it all and you're like, "Oh my god." You know, and you think you know which way the traffic is going and they're like, "Oh my god, it's such a buy up here now. It's not even close." And the thing doubled from there. You should >> Wow, that's a great story. I love that. Great choice. All right, Tony, before we let you go, tell us about your great letter, all the different things you have going, you know, give us the whole spiel. >> Ah, you're too kind, Kev. You know, you could go to tggmacro.com. I write a newsletter that I publish Monday, Wednesday, and Friday called the navigator. I have a point lookout package where a lot of people join me in a Slack channel and we talk about stocks all day long and the markets. And then I have a bespoke I guess consulting package where I speak to traders individually for 12 meetings, one meeting a month for a half hour. And a lot of people get a lot of out of that. So you can go to my website and check out my products. There are samples of the navigator there. You can find me on Twitter at TGmackro. You can listen to my podcast with Jared Dillian on my TGmackro.substack page. And I feel like I'm overexposed as it is, but I'm so thrilled to be here. We can never you can never get enough TJ Macro and Tony Greer. And listen, buddy, it was great chatting with you. Thanks for being such a good sport getting on the couch and bearing your soul to us all. Really appreciate it. Everyone, please go follow Tony and subscribe to his letter. It's you won't regret it. >> Kev, you're the best in the business, man. I can't thank you enough for all the work that you do interviewing people because I listen to so much of it and it is spectacular work. >> Oh, thank you, man. Take care. Peace, brother. All right, Patrick, time for talking charts. And actually, before we do, can I I never do a plug. I'm going to do a slight plug, and it's not really a plug, but my son is back from university, and he's waiting for security clearance for his um >> for his job. And I got him to make me in essence the macro tourist. We call it the tourist trap uh poly market thing. And we're having a lot of fun betting on all these different things. We're making up contracts as it goes. I highly encourage everyone to go have a look. You can go to the macroouourrist.com and then click on the tourist trap. Make yourself an account. Come trade. It's all for fun. We're just having a blast different doing different things. Come join us. And if you have trouble with the account, >> how much money are you going to milk me for on this? >> No, there's no money. It's all fake money. It's just fun. You got to come and trade. Um, and it's it's a lot of fun. And uh you know you can learn how it's interesting to see how the markets work. There's no commission so you can you know beat both sides of the market and have fun and watch how these contracts evolve and there's different things with different opinions. Uh so make sure you come. It's the macroouour.com. It's called the tourist trap. You have to make an account. There is absolutely no charge. If you're having any trouble, send me an email kevinthemackouour.com and I will hook you up and make sure you get an account. >> Awesome. All right. Check I'm going to check it out. All right. Let's get to some charts here. Now, uh Kev, let's uh skip past S&P and go straight to uh what uh Nvidia. So, uh what's interesting about Nvidia and obviously we had the earnings Wednesday night. Uh this was the much anticipated earnings, the largest company in uh in market capitalization. Uh semiconductors were the hottest area. We we had the implied volatilities on that weekly get up into the high 70s in the pre-earnings period. The imp the implied move was uh was like a seven plus percent move in either direction on Nvidia on its earnings and then know what it does it blows out on its earnings and doesn't move. Like literally anyone who who bought uh Gamma in any way ate the um uh ate the uh Vega dip on the other side of that. That was that was like truly a nothing burger that the What's >> Copy had a great Cubby had a great line that he shared with me. He says Kenny G is gonna buy himself a Nidiosaurus because Kenny G Kenny G is uh Ken Griffin at Citadel and he loves buying dinosaur bones. So, you have to kind of know that's the big joke is that every time there's like uh you know an episode where everyone's long options that expire worthless, we all joke and say Kenny G is going to get himself some more dinosaur bones, but this time it's Nvidiosaurus that he's buying. There you go. So, nonetheless, this uh Nvidia has been fading. And what's interesting about the fade uh on Nvidia uh in the post earnings period was if you observe the two candles of its previous two earnings is a a very similar pattern whether it gapped higher and then sold for the day uh or opened flat and then just sold for the next couple of days. uh what we've seen is a pattern where uh Nvidia has been showing spectacular numbers and the uh and market speculators are not being rewarded uh because in many ways obviously in a crowded trade uh in many ways it's clearly that the optimism has been somehow baked into the cake uh and again we're we're fading on this and the big question is is that going to drag the uh the SMH lower because clearly the SM image didn't get the memo that Nvidia's down. >> It's actually Isn't it unbelievable? >> Yeah. >> This like in in terms of this um rally and by the way I I a couple weeks ago we had this thing and I thought didn't I say that SMH was going to sell off and I'm once again absolutely incorrect >> because I gave it a bigger window. I said this I have another week. I have another week. No, no. I might be wrong too now because we both agreed that means it was obviously going to be wrong. >> No, no, cuz we got the last one. We did Silver or whatever and it was literally the next day. It we we had the we had them we had the show and we both said it and you were kind of mopey. You said sometime in the next two weeks and I said no, it's going to happen two days later and I tried to be a hero again and it didn't work. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, nonetheless, uh we have a scenario where the semiconductors are going to try and make a 52- week high and uh and so here we have them uh edging higher. Obviously, the Cosby was the tension uh like somehow like that uh a union resolution on Samsung was what it was holding it back and now it became that much more bullish. Uh and this thing goes ripping back to its new highs. It's a big tell. Will we see fresh new highs on the Cosby and the semiconductors? Give us a drum roll. I obviously am in your camp. We that this kind of a parabolic move uh is going to deeply mean revert. The question of course during these parabolic rises, it's actually uh always surprising how far and how high these things can go before that inevitable turn. And it's one of those things where the semiconductors can rip another 10% uh for the next week and then have one 20% down day. Like you know, it's it's um these things where you shouldn't get too caught up about catching the exact high, but rather recognizing that the asymmetry is you're you're playing a game of musical chairs and you're just hoping that you're you're going to grab that chair when the music finally stops. But don't you know, everyone's sure they're going to do it, Patrick. >> Yeah. >> They're sure that they're going to make that they will not be Chuck Prince. >> But at the same time, the interesting part is that uh I think a lot of people know, but they can't actually take the risk of not participating like, you know, like there's there there's career risk on this. And you know like if everyone gets caught in the correction then everyone's going down but them uh underperforming while the semiconductors added you know how much uh alpha to everyone's portfolio uh you as a money manager have all sorts of risk and so I think that the really smart people know it but uh they can't risk not having any anyway. Yeah, it's completely correct. Like when silver was rocketing in January, >> it was people were suffering from some FOMO, >> but the reality was that if you didn't own silver, it wasn't like you were missing anything. It wasn't like everyone owned silver, >> although it did seem like so at the time, but uh the reality is that most money managers had weren't participating in silver, but this one is like an existential threat to their existence. and you're spot on correct. In essence, if you are not full up on semis, you're you're you're short. >> Yeah, absolutely. So, nonetheless, the S&P 500 is holding up. What continues to be interesting is that the breadth of the market slightly improving uh and but overall I'd say the only way I can imagine the S&P actually legitimately going higher is a resurgence of breath and uh where I would watch uh very closely would be the financials. the financials are put in a a bull flagging formation along the 50-day moving average and we had a breakout candle today. Now, it's one day never makes a new trend, but this is how you always watch when a new starting breakout like this happens. And the the question, are we going to have the breath widen as all these lagards that just didn't participate at all suddenly have another impulse and and uh allow another tailwind to come in when the semiconductors can't do all the heavy lifting alone? Uh and um and so nonetheless, it's very interesting that the uh that the financials are setting up this way. Uh, and it's an example of of what would have to happen if the uh if the S&P is going to keep going. >> You know what's interesting, Patrick? I was thinking about as you were saying this, the market has gotten so topheavy. I could see a situation where the index is down as the semis correct 20% or whatever and you know maybe MAG 7 gets hit too and breath is increasing. Yes, and uh >> it's not outside the realm of the possibility >> that that that was the the sector rotation started the last six months. Like if you think about it like uh you know the consumer staples, healthcare, uh defense contractors, >> but the market wasn't correcting. It was going up. >> It was grinding higher. It wasn't doing it wasn't rocketing higher, but it was grinding higher. It wasn't, but I could see a situation where we actually get us like a correction and that correction instead of seeing breath getting worse in actually improves. I uh I actually um favor that scenario. We I've talked about members because uh in many ways uh all of you when we look at where all the systematic trading triggers are on the market they uh the the bulls have a cushion. It's not like uh uh earlier in the year where we were at the edge of a cliff and all those systematic triggers were 100 S&P points below uh the thing and all you need is one down day and the systematic sell triggers would uh would actually offer all the liquidity and flows to to drive a corrective move down. The bulls have a cushion from at least what I'm observing. And I don't know, you can tell me if you have more up-to-date numbers, but like we would have to be cracking legitimately below 7,000 uh with some serious realized volatility spikes in order for us to suddenly have systematic traders do any real size. I mean, there's always going to be modest uh degrossing on those short-term signals, but um the the bottom line of the point I'm making is is that that sector rotation story could very well be the one that prevails because in the end the semis are going to sell. This is going to happen. But if there isn't a big uh huge trigger to dump the entire market, then money managers are just going to reallocate the profits from the semis into other assets. and it's just going to be a rotation. And that's that that is a very real possibility. In fact, you almost have to favor it versus a big market down. Now, let's talk about the scenario of what would have to happen for there to be a real market dump. And that to me still is uh about oil, you know, and while uh the um uh while the media sources are certainly uh trying their very best to to make it clear that somehow imminently uh a peace deal is about to happen. uh you know there's other headlines out there says uh Iran saying no deal and uh if uh the US wants enriched uranium and that uh a potential uh military action is imminent right and so you have these two mixed signals which one's going to prevail right now at least poly markets um are uh basically only giving it's less than a 50% chance that by July end of July that we're going to have a the straight or her moves back to normal. Uh and so like we have a scenario where uh where there's a lot of disruption and uncertainty here. And even if they announced a peace deal, Kev, uh there's an entire possibility uh that um a month later uh someone breaks something and Iran goes right and and military action happens all over again. Some sort of a risk premium has to remain. It's not like this peace deal is going to be uh uh rock solid uh moving forward. And so the point I'm going to get to there is is that uh a lot of people believe that uh as soon as a peace deal is going to happen, we're going to shave 10 $15 off of crude oil. Uh there's going to be once again a rebalancing of crude oil inventories. Uh and suddenly we can all hold hands and sing kumbaya. But the physical uh constraint of oil and like we just had on that show I cheated on you with. We had um uh Morgan uh uh Downey on which is uh you know the uh oil 101 uh author and obviously oil expert and you know he's pretty adamant that even if a peace deal happened today that uh it's going to take a very long time for oil uh to flow again at the levels it was before. and and in fact there would still need to be demand destruction even with a peace deal. Uh do you have a different uh angle on that? >> No, I just smiling and laughing and thinking about this guy Simon Ree on Twitter. He says he had a tweet. He said, "What's the stupidest thing you've ever done in your investing career?" And then he says, "Oh, back in 2026, I got concerned about the closure of the straight of Hormuz and I and the loss of 12 billion barrels a day of oil." Um, it's been pretty shocking how a lot of the smart oil analysts have been in this camp and yet the market has just shrugged it off and and it and it really will be it will be interesting to see if all of the barrel counters and all of the folks that seem to know what they're talking about in oil end up being wrong and that the highs of oil were actually seen and that we don't have any issues. I I I'm not going to push back. I'm not going to be in that camp. I just I do think it's interesting that they've been able to keep oil as well behaved as they have. But you know, wouldn't what the I always think about pain trades and those things the market can do that actually um uh makes the most amount of investors wrong. And the the interesting part is wouldn't it be interesting if actually oil continued higher even after a peace deal. >> Oh, >> that nobody nobody has that in their uh playbook. >> Well, the other thing I was going to bring up, Patrick, is what happens if we get a peace deal this weekend? And I don't know if we are or not. I've given up trying to just, you know, forecast that. But what if we got a peace deal? stocks opened up 5% or 4% and that was the high of this move. Yeah. The the the um back to the point I was actually trying to make 10 minutes ago. Okay. uh- which is if I look at what is the one thing that could accelerate uh something from being just a sector rotation story with a semiconductor drop to actually uh the stock market has a legitimate drop. It would have to be uh oil still proceeding to $150 irrespective of whether or not there's a peace deal or not. If we saw oil continuing to shock everyone and particularly if the interest rate markets remained highly sensitive to uh like right now the inverse correlation of uh or at least the correlation of oil and interest rates has been very pronounced and if that was to stay in place and oil was continued higher and suddenly bonds came under huge stress uh it it feels very co-like not that it's a pandemic but co was uh very real thing. You can't print enough money uh to solve the COVID. Uh in the same way, you can't print money to solve an oil shortage. Uh like the point is that there's a very physical real thing that you can't just throw money or throw policy at. Um there's something that the market has to work through uh that that it can't be solved with financial engineering. And >> here's another Sorry, I'll let you finish. >> No, no. Just my my only point is is is that in during COVID, you know, China shut down, Italy was shutting down and the stock market was at new highs and no one seemed to be worried about and everyone thought it was market was going to absorb it, but then suddenly the market cared all at once. And I'm just wondering whether this is the case where the oil market uh has just been complacent enough that everyone stopped caring and it's just at the moment they stopped caring then believing that they will impact the stock market when it actually does. Okay. And I'm going to throw another one at you as like an out of left field thing to think about. What's the consensus about Kevin Marsh that he's going to lower interest rates? he's going to be this big dove because he wants to be on um Trump's good side. What if he's looking at this and realizing that the bond market is a problem and that truly to be to keep the bond market under control, he needs to be hawkish? What if the surprise isn't how dovish Kevin Worsh is, but that he ends up being more hawkish, at least versus expectations, than anyone expects. Nobody is talking about this >> but but the sofur is pricing that like the 2000 >> really >> Patrick if it wasn't for >> war the more hikes price in >> yes but the December 2027 contract has put all pulled all rate cuts out of the next >> 100% but the reality is that most people are just talking about how long he's on hold nobody has got him raising rates on the on in >> you know in terms of their forecast and I don't know have to I think he will >> I don't know if he will I don't think he will but I just saw Waler talking today um and he's has generally been the most dovish of the Fed um FOMC board members the kind of the one that has been pushing for the Fed to ease and he's you know abruptly changed it and put the uh hikes back on the table. >> Yep. and and we forget that Kevin Worsh if he was going to be true to what he said in the past on the whole he's usually ended up being more hawkish. Now I I I I see a lot of an analysts that talking about how he's always a hawk. I don't agree with that because I distinctly remember in 2018 when he was pushing Powell to be more hawkish very you know him and Duck were talking about oh you know he has to get more hawkish he has to get more hawkish then Powell went and actually was more hawkish and the market puked he very quickly started to screaming that he needed to be more doubbish so I contend that he chases markets way more than any than most other central banks But if you were going to be chasing a market right now, you should be more hawkish because inflation's going up. We had that terrible inflation number. So anyways, just putting that out there. Something not nobody's talking about. I'm not predicting it, but it would be something that would surprise the market. >> You do you do agree with me that there's a very diff a big difference between the monetary inflation we experienced in 2021 versus the supply shock inflation we're experiencing today. They're very two different types of inflation, right, >> Patrick? I think it would be a mistake to raise rates. And in fact, I could make the case actually should be lowering rates because ultimately >> apart from expectations, and I don't think that expectations really are affected by monetary policy as much as everyone thinks they are, but maybe they are. I don't know. But the reality is apart from expectations that the rise in oil is actually a tax on the consumer and on the private corporations. So to me it should slow the economy and therefore should have lower rates. >> Well, I mean just as an example of slowing economy like did you see what happened with Walmart? like uh but basically uh there is uh there is actually some uh signs that the consumer is being taxed like that they're being stretched and uh and Walmart was probably the single most bullish chart outside of semiconductors uh uh like one a just stunning weekly chart on the upside and this was the first legitimate punch in the solar plex that the stock has gotten um uh in in a multi-year bull phase. And this and the question is, is this the the uh beginning where we're going to see that the consumer is actually feeling this? You know, we're going straight into driving season. We're going to see ob uh the summer driving season and we're going to see really what the impact of all of this really ends up being here in the next little bit. Patrick, the lower part of the K is really suffering. And I don't think that people are appreciating how bad it is because a lot of people in the market are, let's face it, on the upper part of the K, they're looking at the stock market exploding. They're thinking everything's great. Meanwhile, that lower part of the K is really suffering. All you have to do is look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment number. I know it's a flawed survey. I know that all the problems with it. Having said that, it's at all-time lows. It's a It came out today, Friday, at a number that we have never seen before that it is worse than the GFC. This and this this survey goes back a long time. It's worse than the 70s. >> This is shocking that it is this bad. >> So, Kev, uh we're going to wrap things up because I got to get back to my uh Euro vacation here. Uh but listen, we got to talk about the single most important thing to watch, which is the dollar. >> No, >> back to the old days. I'm glad we're returning to the old days. With that said, jokes aside, uh it is interesting that the dollar has been strengthening here in the last little bit. And it's not a total surprise because you would think that the euro would be under a lot of stress from the current situation uh of higher energy prices. They're net importers of food and and energy. Uh but the uh one thing I just want to highlight here is the euro is at at my line in the sand here at 116. If it goes below 116 uh the euro is uh it marks the beginning of a downtrend of the euro. And if that's happening it's waiting in the dollar index is just too much for it to not allow the dollar to strengthen. And so I'm just wanted to point out I'm not saying it's a guarantee. I'm just saying this is a very important moment. um and the euros at that crossroad. And I think the next move on oil might actually be uh a contributor to uh the the potential uh break or rally in that euro. So that's uh to me something to watch. And finally, gold just can't uh catch a bid. Like this thing is uh is it's in a soft bleed. Doesn't really want to go down, but there's no reason to buy it. And it's just uh it's in it's the postbubble hangover. had that parabolic blowoff and we're now going, you know, four plus months of it just find absorbing that previous rally and consolidating. Long as interest rates are going up and this stress appears, I think that this could be the story into the summer. Like I do I'm so bullish gold long term, but uh this may be uh not going away uh until the third quarter of the year. Like I think that this this kind of a a meat grinder price action is here to stay for the second quarter. That's my call. >> All right. Okay. >> All right. Listen, Kev, we're going to wrap things up. I want to get back to vacationing, buddy. >> Okay. So, thank you for tuning in. Listen, bare market, bull market, we're just happy you spent some time together on this crazy ride. Now, stick around for the after show. Here comes Danny. Okay, Patrick, you got to rate your beer. Um, you know what? It's all right. I'm going to get I'm going to give it a 6.1. You know what? It's it's it's no sag. And Danny, why aren't you in Spain, buddy? >> Uh, I've got my friend staying here, so I have to drop him at the airport on Sunday, so I couldn't join the >> Okay. The the Euro sensation. >> Yeah. So, you guys both have camper vans. You guys are having drag races with them and everything. >> Oh, absolutely. >> Yeah. You can get up to maybe 30 km an hour if you're lucky. So >> So Danny, you saw Patrick's camper van, I assume, or No. >> Yep, I saw his whip. Yeah. All right, we partied. >> And so are you jealous? Did he Did he go all out? Did he buy himself a reals? >> I mean, he's got all the bells and whistles, so you know, it really does make my band look like a retirement wagon more so, whereas actually Patrick's make him look far younger than me. So that's cool. >> Younger. What? So he only looks like he's 70 68 versus 75. Is that basically it? >> Right. Yeah, you got it. You got it. You got it. >> Right. And Patrick, what are you doing in Spain? Is there something specifically some festival? You're driving Ferraris, eating truffles. What are you doing? >> Actually, it's funny. We're we're checking out Ferraris. That's about it. That's uh taking the camper van to check out Ferrari. >> You're not, are you? Like I didn't even know that. Are you being Are you serious? I'm not going to say that on the air. I'm serious. I must be joking. I I just kind of pulled that out of the air. You really are. I can't believe >> Well, you never know with Patrick. >> Okay. Well, listen. It is a classic tsterosa, buddy. It's uh it's okay. Anyway, but uh we'll leave it at that. Listen, >> uh it was awesome. Let's find out what these markets do. Thank you everyone for tuning in. Uh and we'll uh give all you an update in the weeks to come. >> That's right. Take care. Stay safe, Patrick. >> Thank you. Cheers, everyone. Bye, guys.