Bond Yields At 2-Decade High; 'Biggest Opportunity' In History Revealed | Clem Chambers
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The American market is extremely bipolar at the moment. And feels like the sort of market that can go on a tremendous bubble. SpaceX is the is the signal pistol going to and go bang off off we go into the bubble. SpaceX after all is the biggest opportunity in markets of all time cuz it's it's the whole universe to play for. What's the top of that? Because soon enough we're going to need to know. [laughter] Kevin Warsh has now officially been confirmed as the next Fed chair as of May 13th. Since then the bond market has been selling off with the US 30-year climbing to a 19-year high of just under 5.2% this morning. With bond selling off, stocks continuing their euphoric rally, and precious metals stalling is now the time to rotate into risk. Clem Chambers, founder of a new FN, joins us now. This video is sponsored by Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the United States. Unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real-world events from economic data to political outcomes, and the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below and use my code LIN l i n or scan the QR code here. New users get $10 when they trade $10. And for example, you could put $50 down on the odds of a recession happening this year, which by the way is something we'll be discussing with Clem. And if the trade turns out to be correct, you could yield $262 on $50 put down on this trade. Clem, welcome back to the show. Good to see you. Well, I'm I'm spending my assets outside of Western Hemisphere. I'm in Hokkaido. I'm swimming around in the hot uh springs full of crazy critters and um foxes running in the street and bears in the in the woods doing what bears do in the woods. I I I I appreciate you spending time with us uh to speak with us while you're on holiday. Clem, the 10-year yield jumped to 4.6% today. And um you know, you and I have been talking about um allocating assets outside of the 60/40 portfolio for quite some time. And the fact of the 10-year has jumped so high since the beginning of March is indicating what? Higher inflation expectations, higher economic growth, or perhaps just a failure in the bond market up ahead. Well, probably potentially all three. And and a new guy at the Fed who's meant to be a hawk because, you know, the solution to all these problems with interest rates and and all that good stuff is is well known and it's called QE. And if you've got a guy with a his hand on the lever that refuses to pull it and says, "No, no, no, let the bond market do its thing." Then that would be pretty interesting. Yeah. >> But I don't think that will happen. But there's the doubt there because I mean, I was reading some news saying it was a hawk just a, you know, a few hours ago saying how he was, you know, pretty much old-fashioned in his attitude towards things and be none of this QE. That was all a big mistake. We won't be having any of that. Now, I don't actually think that's going to occur, but you've then got all this um build-out. You've got the onshoring of the whole of the American economy that has been offshored over, you know, a generation or even two. So somehow that's got to be brought onshore and that's take funding. And then you've got the AI build-out which is going to take a huge amount of funding. Um you know, it takes a lot of funding. And then if you look at all the normal companies which many of them have, you know, are already well levered up one way or the other. If all the money gets sucked out for AI and for other um projects, onshoring, etc. Well, they're going to need money too, aren't they? So they're going to print some for them. So you're looking at a printathon which is inflationary. And you know, you're going to look at a market saying, "Well, where's this money coming from?" And if you've got a hawk in the Fed saying, "Well, you'll just have to find a way, won't you?" Then um you going to get higher interest rates, and inflation is coming, for sure. It's Well, it's it's about to land. I mean, everybody says, obviously, the situation with oil, oh, that's going to create inflation. That's not the big deal. That's not the big deal at all. The big deal is all these build-outs that are going to suck all the money out of the system and into, basically, CapEx. Massive amounts of CapEx. I mean, America's not used to massive amounts of CapEx. It's used to the opposite. It's It's used to, um you know, get getting its CapEx down in many ways, outshoring the CapEx. And now, it's going to reverse that trend. So, you know, we are in in a very, very big change. And obviously, when things change dramatically, you get volatility, and and you'll see that in the bond market, and you'll probably be seeing that in the equities market at some point. You and I both traveling overseas, Clem. What has traveling taught you about investing? What have you noticed about other cultures or how other people are run, um in other governments, how other countries run um their business um that has made you think about where to put your assets? Let's put it that way. Well, well, I I mean, I put the bulk of my assets in my motherland because it's so blooming cheap. And, you know, when you What I notice about the world is it's a lot more ahead than a lot of local people in various countries, including America, think that it is. So, you know, the British think they're pretty cool, most of them. But But when you look at, say, what's going on even in in Istanbul Airport 10 years ago, makes Heathrow look like the dump it is. So, you know, in America, um you know, going to be great again, but when you look at what's going on in China, maybe it's it's no longer such an exceptional, um country. It's no longer the number one, perhaps, even. So, the realities around the world change and people back home making all the big decisions are quite often out of touch with how things are going. If if you go to Mumbai, uh you will see that that's a place that changes every 90 days. You know, you can feel the change every time you fly and fly back 3 months later, it's moved on. And you can't really say that about many places in the West. So, you know, I think the the big picture is what you get from traveling around and the big picture gives you a better perspective and and you can find things that are are mispriced better by seeing, you know, a bigger picture. And And the UK, for example, well, if you look at the UK, one time sales, look at America, same company, four times sales. Okay? Well, something's wrong with that picture and I'd like to to think that it's a good investment to buy the cheap ones and wait them for them to be no longer cheap. So, as a value investor, I love the UK market, which is completely broken. Absolutely broken. The companies aren't The companies are international, but they're operating in a in a local failing stock market. And that makes us companies prone for takeovers or there you go, there's a nice little lump payout when that occurs and or a change of fortune, which obviously would then set the whole market um in a good shape. And you saw that in Japan um back in I think it was about two 2010. I can't remember. I was there at the time thinking, "Oh, Japanese market's going up. Oh, that's rather good." But, you know, if you were Japanese, you would have looked at it and and not seen that coming because from your perspective, everything was gloomy and slow and oh, you know, it was we it was great once and it's never going to be great again. But as an outsider, you can look at their market and go, "This market's going up. I can look at that. That's going to go up any minute now." And and it did. What does being diversified then mean to you in 2026? >> Well, I mean, there's many ways to look at diversification and most people do not look at it. They are not diversified. They they have some things that they love and, you know, buy and hold and buy the dip and all that. Um and they're undiversified and oh dear, that's just such a bad place to be. I mean, I follow all my portfolios, all my diversified portfolios for the last 30 years. I can still see what happened to them all. And what you get is a couple of big winners. And and all the other ones drift away. Some of them get um go broke. Some a lot of them get bought out and a few of them don't go anywhere at all in, you know, 25 years. But a couple of them will go mental and [clears throat] the whole success or failure of that portfolio then ends up being in the hands of a couple of companies. Well, you know, they swing around incredibly and I'm sure there's plenty of people out there holding Nvidia perhaps for the last 15 years and every day they get a lot richer or a lot poorer because all their money's concentrated into, you know, an undiversified portfolio of risk. And if you've got a idea on where you should invest, you should always spread those bets around. And if you've got some theories, you should then break them down into bits. So, you see, rather than have it all been Nvidia, if you think that that that uh silicon was the place to be, you just don't have it in Nvidia. You have it in AMD, you have it in Intel, you have it in all the chip and software companies, you have it in all sorts of different places. And that way, you can be undiversified in that sector. But me, I I I just look for anything cheap and I am undiversified as a value investor. So, I I I I'm strongly um concentrated into cheap stocks and I don't care where they are around the world. So, I'm diversified around the world. I'm diversified in sectors cuz I don't care what sector they're in, but I'm still end up undiversified when it comes to the thesis that I have. But of course, if you want to just buy the S&P 500 and then you'll be in pretty good shape. I had this discussion with another guest the other day. What if we just buy the S&P, leave it alone for the next 30 years, and stop trying to pick stocks that will outperform the market because the vast majority of professional investors don't do that or can't make it, what chance do I have is my thinking. Most professional investors, it's their job and they bloomin' hate it and therefore they're not very good at it. Okay? And anybody that doesn't love it [clears throat] should definitely not go stock picking. I mean, it's like so why hit a little white ball around a big lawn and get it stuck in sand and try to get in a little hole at the end. Who'd want to do that? Well, don't bother with that. Just sit and watch television. That's that's pretty sound. But you know, if you love golf, you go out in all all weather, won't you? And I love stock picking and the reason I'm good at it is I love it. And if you love it, if you enjoy it and you study it, it's like any any past time. You know, there's work and there's I don't work to live, I live to work and the the life that I like the most is in the financial markets. I absolutely enjoy picking stocks and finding out what's going on and working out how it all fits together and spotting something that's going to occur like gold or Bitcoin or or whatever or top of the market or a crash or it's great. And if if you are like that, then there's very good money to be made. If you just want to invest, yeah, buy the S&P 500. And then you know, go play golf. Yeah. Go walk around in all weathers. Hit a little white ball up and down grass. People have started trading directly on events instead of just investing. And this is a prediction market Kashi. Odds of a recession this year. You'll see something interesting Clem that the odds of a recession spike during the onset of the Iran war and that odd has since rescinded and the the probability has perfectly inversely correlated with the S&P 500 which has dropped around the same time that the odds of a recession has peaked on KOSHI and then it climbed when the odds came down. What has happened in the last month and a half that has calmed investors down and I guess shown the markets that although the Iran war or conflict has not yet been resolved, it will not damage the economy to an extent that previously was thought. Well, see in my model what happened was the it kicked off in the Gulf, the market began to crash, the the government or whoever it is in the government that does this pulled the lever, pumped in a huge amount of money into the economy, goes straight into equities, up they go like a rocket and as that money takes its effect and loses its potency it curves over happened with the Trump's tariff tantrum. Same thing, bang a massive amount of money goes in, up it goes like a rocket, over it goes as the as the money diversifies in and flows into the economy. And you're seeing that again and so the market will will kind of curl over as the potency of that bazooka wears off because it spreads into the economy and into asset prices. Now as far as things like KOSHI goes I mean unless the people driving the price are insiders yeah, then it's just gambling. And you know, it's it's how people feel about it. Now maybe they think there's not going to be a recession cuz maybe they're just getting bored with it. So that price is going down because people are getting bored. They're just less scared, they're less worried. So the price is a sentiment indicator but not necessarily a predictor of the future. And after all if it was, people wouldn't play it, would they? Because that would be nothing that they could see that that wasn't already in the price. And I don't think I mean I don't know. It's gambling. It's very successful gambling and everybody loves it and everybody loves to gamble and poor old crypto, all the gamblers are probably over in the prediction markets now rather than chasing after some animal meme coin. Yeah, so >> but it is, you know, the markets are a lot about gambling because people get a lot of a thrill from the dopamine etc. And you know, you can't take get the gambling out of the markets. And and you know, that that there you go. But I prefer not to gamble. I prefer to be on the other side of the trade. I think the level of gambling and the risk-on sentiment correlates with um what is the perceived Put it this way. How investors perceive the markets to perform in the next 6 months will directly dictate the level of risks on sentiment and the level of gambling there is in the market. So is right now the time to take on additional risk? Well, the there's a there's a risk is a double-edged sword, okay? I will say some some person will come to me and say, "Oh, there's this little stock, you know, some microcap pink sheet thing." And they say, "Is it too risky?" And I say, "No, there's no risk involved in that share. You're you're guaranteed to lose your money." Yeah? The there is a curve in risk where it does equal reward and after a certain point, risk just equals loss. Yeah? And and it's it doesn't just go, "Oh, wait, this is incredibly risky, therefore I'm going to make an incredibly great reward." It it means your likelihood of loss at some point doesn't balance with your potential gain or from getting it right. And you know, I I think the American market is in a bubble now. Which is a very risky situation. And also a highly profitable one, but you do a guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when. And I think that's about 2 years away. I might be I might be being optimistic. It might be 2 weeks away. But you know, I think we are definitely in bubble territory now. And a bubble is a fantastic thing if you can get it at the bottom. And I think this is near the bottom of this bubble. And I think the SpaceX is the is the is the signal. Is the is the pistol going to and go bang. Off off we go into the bubble. SpaceX after all is the biggest opportunity in markets of all time cuz it's it's the whole universe to play for. >> [laughter] >> I mean someone was saying that today and I thought oh no. Oh, the biggest opportunity in the markets of all in history because it's all that's the rest of the universe we're going to go to now. So >> [clears throat] >> that's probably true. But it's the sort of thing I don't want to hear in the markets cuz that's the sign of the sort of enthusiasm that leads to people in a period of time going wasn't me I didn't do it. They said it was going to do this and it's all their fault. Oh oh mommy mommy mommy wasn't me. The reason I ask is because even in the prediction markets traders are predicting that the odds of a recession are coming down. And certainly the stock markets are reflecting the sentiment. Would you chase this kind of sentiment right now is my kind of is my question. I I think you have to chase these not sentiment. Sentiment will always get you in trouble. Yeah, because it's it's a group of men acting like one fool. That's what a market is. And you know, it's it's sentiment it's it's it's reality. And when sentiment runs away from reality, that's where you've got opportunity to make money. And so if you when you I like to look at things where the sentiment is terrible and the reality is a lot better. Like Intel a few months ago when it was 20. Yeah? 120? No, you see I I don't know. Not only don't I know, I don't actually care. Yeah, we're in a bubble, so that's my thesis. So, I'm going to ride this bubble until I make too much money, and then I'll stop and I'll jump off and everyone tell me I'm a fool, and then it will keep on going for a bit, well, probably quite a lot, and then it will come crashing down. So, with the beginning of a bubble, I plan to ride that bubble and and and see where it leads and and listen really hard for the guy ringing the bell at the top. And because valuations are just so high, so high, you know, the historically high, and they're, you know, the they're the the horse is out of the barn on price, and it will run. It will run a bubble. Bubble bust follows. Yeah, boom bubble bust. Well, we've had the boom. We're We're entering We've entered I don't think we're entering it. We've entered a bubble. It probably has 18 months to 2 years to run. And, you know, you'll know when it's when it's got 3 or 4 months to run cuz there'll be a load of crazy IPOs come out of nowhere and that will be never heard of and that will all be, "Oh, yes, you know, Elon Musk ex-girlfriend's brother-in-law has has built himself a factory within 50 miles of SpaceX or something, you know." There'll be that kind of thing, just like it was in 2000. You'll see a load of crazy IPOs hit the hit the bricks, and that'll be the time to leave. While the stock market's at all-time highs, the 30-year Treasury yield at a 19-year high, where would you go right now? Where am I putting my money? I'm putting my money in in the second and third order things that are involved in the onshoring and AI buildout. So, you know, if anybody makes generators, I want to buy their stock. Well, I don't cuz they're already expensive. Yeah, I want I'm looking for people It electricity grid is interesting. Yeah, so I don't want the electricity grid cuz they're going to be kicked about by government as being, you know, you're bad people. You haven't got enough electricity cuz we told you not to. Oh, whoops, that don't make sense. But anyway, you're bad people. Stop that. So, they will be punished just by being there. But people that are supplying them with, you know, big switches and and and uh transformers and big cables to take um power, that they're they're going to be having a great time. So, anybody that is going to be building out into the AI buildout, um anybody who's not in the way of the government idiot, um I I'm looking to um buy stock in and I've bought a few, you know, energy companies. And um people that build nuclear power stations, that sort of thing. And a lot of this stuff is a bit further out than I'd like. I mean, like uranium's going to be a big deal, um but it's not quite a big deal yet. Copper is going to be a much bigger deal. Um so, that's got a long way to run. So, anything copperish is good. So, copper miners are going to be good. Um you can make mistakes though cuz you can say like you can buy a company that makes uh wires. You can think they're going to people going to want wires, but unfortunately, the cost of the wires is going to go up so much, they might not be able to pass the the cost through. So, there's lots of of of things you got to be careful of. But anything to do with the onshoring and anything to do with the AI buildout, particularly the AI buildout, is is going to be very very very spicy. Yeah. Meanwhile, the UAE has built nearly 50% of a second pipeline that is supposed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. It's not supposed to be operational until 2027. Now, the market concern is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed indefinitely, probably until 2027 or even beyond. And so, a pipeline or multiple pipelines bypassing that is much needed. But for now, since we don't have a direct fix, is oil going to nearly $300, which is what we discussed last time? Well, I you know, I I It's such a wild card. I mean, what what is what is the American strategy? For me, it's just, you know, have a siege, let the Iranian oil infrastructure break or be highly damaged. I mean, it would appear, I don't know whether this is actually a thing or not, but I've seen photographs, you don't know these days whether they are or not, that Iran is actually pumping oil into the sea rather than have it back up. Yeah, so if that you know, what what a catastrophe that will be if that's what they're doing. But, you know, if America it if they found a way to stop their oil um production from breaking, then the siege isn't going to work. And then what? So, I I think it's all it's all up in the air. But, yes, capitalism always finds a way. So, I didn't know the EIA had built half a pipeline already. Um but, I don't find that hard to believe. And my position has always been it'll take them about a year to find a way around these things. And and they will find a way around it. Capitalism always finds a way. So, yes, that will flush through. Um but, what where that leaves the Middle East, I don't know. I mean, the big call is China. I mean, it was Trump Trump and China. That was the big event. And that turned out to be nothing but a boat, which is probably quite a good thing. Yeah, so you know, it's China and America. Can they do the right thing for their people and muddle along? If they can, we've got a great future. Absolutely great future. If if they absolutely insist on mucking about and, you know, increasing hostilities, then it's going to get really bad. But, I I think that um I think one way or another that the world's had a wake-up call. I think China's had a wake-up call over Taiwan. I think America's had a wake-up call over China. I think, you know, Russia's about to get a wake-up call. And so, we might go out, please, in a couple of years out of this, um, you know, situation of high volatility into some more stability. Uh, and and that will be good. But, you know, the the technological advances that are going on across the board right now are so powerful that as as long as we don't go down the road of NS, I natural stupidity, you know, the the future is very, very rosy. But, of course, there's always the lunatics, you [snorts] know, driving the bus, that can make this stuff go wrong. And and there is a lot of lunatics driving many buses out there. So, I hope that they can, you know, the world can get a little bit more stable. Um, and cuz if it if it does, it's going to be great. We'll still get a crash, but I mean, you know, I I was just in, um, Singapore, um, traveling. And, um, Singapore is renowned for many things, among which a very stable monetary authority and government policies that are predictable. I wonder, then, for an investor, instead of waiting for the world to become more stable, why not just put your money in more stable jurisdictions? Oh, uh, sure, if you've got that much money. Yeah, I mean, you you need to be geographically diversified if you've got more than a a pot to, um, you know, whatever. Yeah, if you've got a bit of money, it makes sense. I mean, the classic is to put, um, 25% in, um, productive assets in your country, keep 25% in in equities, keep 25% in cash outside of your country, and keep 25%, um, you know, i- i- in your back pocket. So, you know, spreading your assets, um, geographically makes perfect sense. And div- diversification is great, but most people don't have enough capital to need or to be able to diversify that far. And so for them, the best thing to do is, you know, have a little bit of a little bit of bonds and a lot of equities and and put them in in ETFs and and let it run. And and you know, that's worked out extremely well and I think you know, if you were to if you were to buy and hold from here, you're going to have a couple of good years and you're going to have a really terrible one and you're going to have 5 years of of wishing that you had done something and then 5 years later you said, "Oh yeah, that was back then." So, you know, that's the thing about buying and holding. If you do it judiciously, then it's it's a very it's a very solid way of going and and ETFs are the least uh demanding way of doing that because you are just buying the index or you're buying, "Oh, I like semiconductors. I'll buy the semiconductor ETF. Oh, I like rare earths. I'll buy the rare earths one. Oh, I like um I like China. I'll buy China and ETF." And and it's simplifies you you out quite a bit. But, you know, most people just don't want to put in the effort. It's boring and they don't enjoy it. So, you know, that that's why they don't want to do it and and I could totally get that. By the way, let's talk about gold before we finish up. It's under performed the S&P 500 this year. It had a great year last year beating most things. Um this year I suppose if you're a gold investor or investor having allocated to precious metals last year, should this year be the year of rotating out of precious metals into something else? Well, I've been gone since the high. So, you know, and now I look at it and I go, "Well, it's kind of it's being stodgy, isn't it?" People my audience keeps saying, "What are you getting back? What are you getting back?" And it's point is it's just another asset. I I and when I was, you know, writing a lot about Bitcoin when it was going up and when I got out and everyone was upset with me, um it was it's just another asset. Yeah. You know, it's just a get you one should focus on that. It's a very very popular asset. It's a it's a lovely one to own, so you you get kind of warm and and furry and dividends from it, but it's gone up a lot. It's I think it's very dependent on on the America-China dynamic. And I think that that has been pushed out somewhere. I think it's very dependent on the parallel trade situation with place people like Russia and Iran using gold as as their deposit account in China. So, I think you know, I think you'll find when Iran sends a a boatload of oil to China, the Chinese um pay them in gold because they don't want to pay them in yuan because they don't want to be the um you know, that the like the dollar the um global asset the global money because it's they don't want to be um in that situation. So, they just pay in gold and they just keep the gold for them in in a in a vault in China. And when Iran wants whatever it wants, it turns its um gold into whatever currency is needed and and away it goes. So, a lot of gold's been going into China because if you take the for example Iranian budget surplus in oil, it's about 16 to 18% of the of the global production of gold every year. So, if they're stacking gold rather than the holding dollars and why would they want to hold dollars because you know, that's they're at risk and it they don't can't get them into yuan because China doesn't want to be the reserve currency of the world. What makes more sense than to just buy gold? Well, that that's a that's a sample of you know, 1/5 or a little bit less than 1/5 of all the gold that's being made every year out of the ground. And of course, then you've got to add Russia on top of that. So, you know, anybody that's using gold as the reserve currency rather than the dollar because of all the sanctions is that's eating up a lot of gold and that's being held in China for those trading partners. But, that could go away. I mean, imagine the situation where Iran played nice and it was allowed to, you know, reenter the the global fellowship. Or for that matter, Russia. If that war ended and Russia, I mean, you know, made nice and was allowed to come back into the system again, that trade will go away. So, that would be really, really, really negative for gold. So, you know, it's done its run and and now it's in that post boom bubble situation. Now, whether it sits here or whether it takes a leg down, taking a leg up, highly unlikely. Can it Will it trend around here? It doesn't It doesn't look like it knows where it's going. So, I I gold is a signal for me now, not an asset. So, I look at gold and the the direction it goes tells me about what's going on. Yeah, like oil. You know, when oil goes up, you you know it's not going well in the Gulf. When oil goes down, you know, it might be, you know, things might be developing. So, I think it is a very good signal for what's going on in the global economy cuz what drives that price is driven by people that know what's going on right at a very deep level. So, it gives you an insight, a hint of what's going on. And I think at the moment, it's had its had its moment and and it will that moment is not likely to come again for quite some time. Quite some time, probably 2 years, around the same time you think the stock market is going to crash? What tends to happen, and this is, you know, past performance and etc., is when a commodity goes nuts. Yeah, it falls like a rock and and it and it flaps about and it goes all quiet and then it has another run. But, if it went from, say, 1 to 10, it'll come back down to three and it'll go around sideways and then it'll go to six and then it'll come back down again. So, there's like an aftershock. So, I would expect there to be an aftershock in a couple of years because a lot of [clears throat] people will be watching it hoping that the music will start again. Yeah, because they loved it when it you know, they sat there for 5-10 years saying that gold's going to the moon and then it did and and they feel validated and they made a lot of money and then it all half of it went away again and they feel sad and this and they're watching it cuz they know they were right. So there's there's a sort of married to the to the asset thing that goes on with commodities like that. And if you look at the '70s you'll see these aftershocks over and over again. So there will be an aftershock in gold and there will be an aftershock in silver. The one that is going to run is going to be copper. So that's the one that that I'm watching. That's the one I'm expecting to have a big run. Uh okay. Well, let's let's talk about copper in more detail next time. Final question before we take off, Clem. Thank you. What has shocked you this year? Which asset class or which trade has gone in a way that you haven't expected maybe late last year? Well, I was I when I when I looked at Intel at 20 and bought a load and accidentally bought a double load, um I thought yeah, that this thing could go to 16. And because of of the of the situation in the Gulf and all the craziness of announcements, I got out of the whole market um and and and I got out at 45 which I did exceptionally well. I'm very happy with that. And I 80, I would have definitely sold. >> [laughter] >> And then it was at 120. So I I I think I think that that surprised me because that tells you how badly wrong the American market can get something very obvious. Yeah, and and I think that that is um that is quite interesting cuz it shows you that it's it's quite a >> [sighs] >> highly strung market and can move um in very irrationally uh very quickly. And you can see the same thing going on um as happened with the Nokia which is a great company. And then suddenly it took a long time for the penny to drop. Took a long, long time for people to work out what was going on there. And I would have expected the American market to be hyper-efficient, hyper, hyper quick. And no, it's got all sorts of opportunities lying around in it that that you know that I've I've been looking at going I don't believe that. Why is that like that? And then looking at some very average stocks with incredible valuations that that beggar belief. So you know it is seems to me that the American market is extremely bipolar at the moment. And feels like the sort of market that can go on a tremendous bubble. And the point is what's the top of that? Because soon enough we're going to need to know. All right. Well, thank you very much, Clem. Tell us where we can find you and follow your work. Well, you can hear me ranting and raving on Clem Chambers Alpha on YouTube here. And my Substack is is quite popular. And where I I put lots of ideas down so that people can be a little bit more studious in reading them. It doesn't all just rush by like like like it just happened just now. So they're the two places where people can get my the bulk of my work. Okay. And a new thing which is which is a fantastic website. We've got some American prices in now. It's still very much alpha. So we've got American markets in addition to the UK market. So all those people that heard about it tried it out before it's got US stuff in it. Now we the US stuff is arriving. It's there. So come on down. We'll put the link down below. And yeah, please do check out Clem's channel. I encourage everyone to subscribe to his YouTube channel. I'll put the link down below. Clem, have a great trip in Japan. Where are you off to next? I'm off to the Formula 1 in Monaco. Back home. Amazing. All right. You have a great time. Enjoy the rest of your May and the start of your summer. We'll speak soon. Take care for now. Have fun in Bali. Thank you very much. And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Bond Yields At 2-Decade High; 'Biggest Opportunity' In History Revealed | Clem Chambers
Summary
Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/LIN or download the Kalshi App and use code LIN to sign up and trade today! Clem Chambers …Transcript
The American market is extremely bipolar at the moment. And feels like the sort of market that can go on a tremendous bubble. SpaceX is the is the signal pistol going to and go bang off off we go into the bubble. SpaceX after all is the biggest opportunity in markets of all time cuz it's it's the whole universe to play for. What's the top of that? Because soon enough we're going to need to know. [laughter] Kevin Warsh has now officially been confirmed as the next Fed chair as of May 13th. Since then the bond market has been selling off with the US 30-year climbing to a 19-year high of just under 5.2% this morning. With bond selling off, stocks continuing their euphoric rally, and precious metals stalling is now the time to rotate into risk. Clem Chambers, founder of a new FN, joins us now. This video is sponsored by Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the United States. Unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real-world events from economic data to political outcomes, and the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below and use my code LIN l i n or scan the QR code here. New users get $10 when they trade $10. And for example, you could put $50 down on the odds of a recession happening this year, which by the way is something we'll be discussing with Clem. And if the trade turns out to be correct, you could yield $262 on $50 put down on this trade. Clem, welcome back to the show. Good to see you. Well, I'm I'm spending my assets outside of Western Hemisphere. I'm in Hokkaido. I'm swimming around in the hot uh springs full of crazy critters and um foxes running in the street and bears in the in the woods doing what bears do in the woods. I I I I appreciate you spending time with us uh to speak with us while you're on holiday. Clem, the 10-year yield jumped to 4.6% today. And um you know, you and I have been talking about um allocating assets outside of the 60/40 portfolio for quite some time. And the fact of the 10-year has jumped so high since the beginning of March is indicating what? Higher inflation expectations, higher economic growth, or perhaps just a failure in the bond market up ahead. Well, probably potentially all three. And and a new guy at the Fed who's meant to be a hawk because, you know, the solution to all these problems with interest rates and and all that good stuff is is well known and it's called QE. And if you've got a guy with a his hand on the lever that refuses to pull it and says, "No, no, no, let the bond market do its thing." Then that would be pretty interesting. Yeah. >> But I don't think that will happen. But there's the doubt there because I mean, I was reading some news saying it was a hawk just a, you know, a few hours ago saying how he was, you know, pretty much old-fashioned in his attitude towards things and be none of this QE. That was all a big mistake. We won't be having any of that. Now, I don't actually think that's going to occur, but you've then got all this um build-out. You've got the onshoring of the whole of the American economy that has been offshored over, you know, a generation or even two. So somehow that's got to be brought onshore and that's take funding. And then you've got the AI build-out which is going to take a huge amount of funding. Um you know, it takes a lot of funding. And then if you look at all the normal companies which many of them have, you know, are already well levered up one way or the other. If all the money gets sucked out for AI and for other um projects, onshoring, etc. Well, they're going to need money too, aren't they? So they're going to print some for them. So you're looking at a printathon which is inflationary. And you know, you're going to look at a market saying, "Well, where's this money coming from?" And if you've got a hawk in the Fed saying, "Well, you'll just have to find a way, won't you?" Then um you going to get higher interest rates, and inflation is coming, for sure. It's Well, it's it's about to land. I mean, everybody says, obviously, the situation with oil, oh, that's going to create inflation. That's not the big deal. That's not the big deal at all. The big deal is all these build-outs that are going to suck all the money out of the system and into, basically, CapEx. Massive amounts of CapEx. I mean, America's not used to massive amounts of CapEx. It's used to the opposite. It's It's used to, um you know, get getting its CapEx down in many ways, outshoring the CapEx. And now, it's going to reverse that trend. So, you know, we are in in a very, very big change. And obviously, when things change dramatically, you get volatility, and and you'll see that in the bond market, and you'll probably be seeing that in the equities market at some point. You and I both traveling overseas, Clem. What has traveling taught you about investing? What have you noticed about other cultures or how other people are run, um in other governments, how other countries run um their business um that has made you think about where to put your assets? Let's put it that way. Well, well, I I mean, I put the bulk of my assets in my motherland because it's so blooming cheap. And, you know, when you What I notice about the world is it's a lot more ahead than a lot of local people in various countries, including America, think that it is. So, you know, the British think they're pretty cool, most of them. But But when you look at, say, what's going on even in in Istanbul Airport 10 years ago, makes Heathrow look like the dump it is. So, you know, in America, um you know, going to be great again, but when you look at what's going on in China, maybe it's it's no longer such an exceptional, um country. It's no longer the number one, perhaps, even. So, the realities around the world change and people back home making all the big decisions are quite often out of touch with how things are going. If if you go to Mumbai, uh you will see that that's a place that changes every 90 days. You know, you can feel the change every time you fly and fly back 3 months later, it's moved on. And you can't really say that about many places in the West. So, you know, I think the the big picture is what you get from traveling around and the big picture gives you a better perspective and and you can find things that are are mispriced better by seeing, you know, a bigger picture. And And the UK, for example, well, if you look at the UK, one time sales, look at America, same company, four times sales. Okay? Well, something's wrong with that picture and I'd like to to think that it's a good investment to buy the cheap ones and wait them for them to be no longer cheap. So, as a value investor, I love the UK market, which is completely broken. Absolutely broken. The companies aren't The companies are international, but they're operating in a in a local failing stock market. And that makes us companies prone for takeovers or there you go, there's a nice little lump payout when that occurs and or a change of fortune, which obviously would then set the whole market um in a good shape. And you saw that in Japan um back in I think it was about two 2010. I can't remember. I was there at the time thinking, "Oh, Japanese market's going up. Oh, that's rather good." But, you know, if you were Japanese, you would have looked at it and and not seen that coming because from your perspective, everything was gloomy and slow and oh, you know, it was we it was great once and it's never going to be great again. But as an outsider, you can look at their market and go, "This market's going up. I can look at that. That's going to go up any minute now." And and it did. What does being diversified then mean to you in 2026? >> Well, I mean, there's many ways to look at diversification and most people do not look at it. They are not diversified. They they have some things that they love and, you know, buy and hold and buy the dip and all that. Um and they're undiversified and oh dear, that's just such a bad place to be. I mean, I follow all my portfolios, all my diversified portfolios for the last 30 years. I can still see what happened to them all. And what you get is a couple of big winners. And and all the other ones drift away. Some of them get um go broke. Some a lot of them get bought out and a few of them don't go anywhere at all in, you know, 25 years. But a couple of them will go mental and [clears throat] the whole success or failure of that portfolio then ends up being in the hands of a couple of companies. Well, you know, they swing around incredibly and I'm sure there's plenty of people out there holding Nvidia perhaps for the last 15 years and every day they get a lot richer or a lot poorer because all their money's concentrated into, you know, an undiversified portfolio of risk. And if you've got a idea on where you should invest, you should always spread those bets around. And if you've got some theories, you should then break them down into bits. So, you see, rather than have it all been Nvidia, if you think that that that uh silicon was the place to be, you just don't have it in Nvidia. You have it in AMD, you have it in Intel, you have it in all the chip and software companies, you have it in all sorts of different places. And that way, you can be undiversified in that sector. But me, I I I just look for anything cheap and I am undiversified as a value investor. So, I I I I'm strongly um concentrated into cheap stocks and I don't care where they are around the world. So, I'm diversified around the world. I'm diversified in sectors cuz I don't care what sector they're in, but I'm still end up undiversified when it comes to the thesis that I have. But of course, if you want to just buy the S&P 500 and then you'll be in pretty good shape. I had this discussion with another guest the other day. What if we just buy the S&P, leave it alone for the next 30 years, and stop trying to pick stocks that will outperform the market because the vast majority of professional investors don't do that or can't make it, what chance do I have is my thinking. Most professional investors, it's their job and they bloomin' hate it and therefore they're not very good at it. Okay? And anybody that doesn't love it [clears throat] should definitely not go stock picking. I mean, it's like so why hit a little white ball around a big lawn and get it stuck in sand and try to get in a little hole at the end. Who'd want to do that? Well, don't bother with that. Just sit and watch television. That's that's pretty sound. But you know, if you love golf, you go out in all all weather, won't you? And I love stock picking and the reason I'm good at it is I love it. And if you love it, if you enjoy it and you study it, it's like any any past time. You know, there's work and there's I don't work to live, I live to work and the the life that I like the most is in the financial markets. I absolutely enjoy picking stocks and finding out what's going on and working out how it all fits together and spotting something that's going to occur like gold or Bitcoin or or whatever or top of the market or a crash or it's great. And if if you are like that, then there's very good money to be made. If you just want to invest, yeah, buy the S&P 500. And then you know, go play golf. Yeah. Go walk around in all weathers. Hit a little white ball up and down grass. People have started trading directly on events instead of just investing. And this is a prediction market Kashi. Odds of a recession this year. You'll see something interesting Clem that the odds of a recession spike during the onset of the Iran war and that odd has since rescinded and the the probability has perfectly inversely correlated with the S&P 500 which has dropped around the same time that the odds of a recession has peaked on KOSHI and then it climbed when the odds came down. What has happened in the last month and a half that has calmed investors down and I guess shown the markets that although the Iran war or conflict has not yet been resolved, it will not damage the economy to an extent that previously was thought. Well, see in my model what happened was the it kicked off in the Gulf, the market began to crash, the the government or whoever it is in the government that does this pulled the lever, pumped in a huge amount of money into the economy, goes straight into equities, up they go like a rocket and as that money takes its effect and loses its potency it curves over happened with the Trump's tariff tantrum. Same thing, bang a massive amount of money goes in, up it goes like a rocket, over it goes as the as the money diversifies in and flows into the economy. And you're seeing that again and so the market will will kind of curl over as the potency of that bazooka wears off because it spreads into the economy and into asset prices. Now as far as things like KOSHI goes I mean unless the people driving the price are insiders yeah, then it's just gambling. And you know, it's it's how people feel about it. Now maybe they think there's not going to be a recession cuz maybe they're just getting bored with it. So that price is going down because people are getting bored. They're just less scared, they're less worried. So the price is a sentiment indicator but not necessarily a predictor of the future. And after all if it was, people wouldn't play it, would they? Because that would be nothing that they could see that that wasn't already in the price. And I don't think I mean I don't know. It's gambling. It's very successful gambling and everybody loves it and everybody loves to gamble and poor old crypto, all the gamblers are probably over in the prediction markets now rather than chasing after some animal meme coin. Yeah, so >> but it is, you know, the markets are a lot about gambling because people get a lot of a thrill from the dopamine etc. And you know, you can't take get the gambling out of the markets. And and you know, that that there you go. But I prefer not to gamble. I prefer to be on the other side of the trade. I think the level of gambling and the risk-on sentiment correlates with um what is the perceived Put it this way. How investors perceive the markets to perform in the next 6 months will directly dictate the level of risks on sentiment and the level of gambling there is in the market. So is right now the time to take on additional risk? Well, the there's a there's a risk is a double-edged sword, okay? I will say some some person will come to me and say, "Oh, there's this little stock, you know, some microcap pink sheet thing." And they say, "Is it too risky?" And I say, "No, there's no risk involved in that share. You're you're guaranteed to lose your money." Yeah? The there is a curve in risk where it does equal reward and after a certain point, risk just equals loss. Yeah? And and it's it doesn't just go, "Oh, wait, this is incredibly risky, therefore I'm going to make an incredibly great reward." It it means your likelihood of loss at some point doesn't balance with your potential gain or from getting it right. And you know, I I think the American market is in a bubble now. Which is a very risky situation. And also a highly profitable one, but you do a guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when. And I think that's about 2 years away. I might be I might be being optimistic. It might be 2 weeks away. But you know, I think we are definitely in bubble territory now. And a bubble is a fantastic thing if you can get it at the bottom. And I think this is near the bottom of this bubble. And I think the SpaceX is the is the is the signal. Is the is the pistol going to and go bang. Off off we go into the bubble. SpaceX after all is the biggest opportunity in markets of all time cuz it's it's the whole universe to play for. >> [laughter] >> I mean someone was saying that today and I thought oh no. Oh, the biggest opportunity in the markets of all in history because it's all that's the rest of the universe we're going to go to now. So >> [clears throat] >> that's probably true. But it's the sort of thing I don't want to hear in the markets cuz that's the sign of the sort of enthusiasm that leads to people in a period of time going wasn't me I didn't do it. They said it was going to do this and it's all their fault. Oh oh mommy mommy mommy wasn't me. The reason I ask is because even in the prediction markets traders are predicting that the odds of a recession are coming down. And certainly the stock markets are reflecting the sentiment. Would you chase this kind of sentiment right now is my kind of is my question. I I think you have to chase these not sentiment. Sentiment will always get you in trouble. Yeah, because it's it's a group of men acting like one fool. That's what a market is. And you know, it's it's sentiment it's it's it's reality. And when sentiment runs away from reality, that's where you've got opportunity to make money. And so if you when you I like to look at things where the sentiment is terrible and the reality is a lot better. Like Intel a few months ago when it was 20. Yeah? 120? No, you see I I don't know. Not only don't I know, I don't actually care. Yeah, we're in a bubble, so that's my thesis. So, I'm going to ride this bubble until I make too much money, and then I'll stop and I'll jump off and everyone tell me I'm a fool, and then it will keep on going for a bit, well, probably quite a lot, and then it will come crashing down. So, with the beginning of a bubble, I plan to ride that bubble and and and see where it leads and and listen really hard for the guy ringing the bell at the top. And because valuations are just so high, so high, you know, the historically high, and they're, you know, the they're the the horse is out of the barn on price, and it will run. It will run a bubble. Bubble bust follows. Yeah, boom bubble bust. Well, we've had the boom. We're We're entering We've entered I don't think we're entering it. We've entered a bubble. It probably has 18 months to 2 years to run. And, you know, you'll know when it's when it's got 3 or 4 months to run cuz there'll be a load of crazy IPOs come out of nowhere and that will be never heard of and that will all be, "Oh, yes, you know, Elon Musk ex-girlfriend's brother-in-law has has built himself a factory within 50 miles of SpaceX or something, you know." There'll be that kind of thing, just like it was in 2000. You'll see a load of crazy IPOs hit the hit the bricks, and that'll be the time to leave. While the stock market's at all-time highs, the 30-year Treasury yield at a 19-year high, where would you go right now? Where am I putting my money? I'm putting my money in in the second and third order things that are involved in the onshoring and AI buildout. So, you know, if anybody makes generators, I want to buy their stock. Well, I don't cuz they're already expensive. Yeah, I want I'm looking for people It electricity grid is interesting. Yeah, so I don't want the electricity grid cuz they're going to be kicked about by government as being, you know, you're bad people. You haven't got enough electricity cuz we told you not to. Oh, whoops, that don't make sense. But anyway, you're bad people. Stop that. So, they will be punished just by being there. But people that are supplying them with, you know, big switches and and and uh transformers and big cables to take um power, that they're they're going to be having a great time. So, anybody that is going to be building out into the AI buildout, um anybody who's not in the way of the government idiot, um I I'm looking to um buy stock in and I've bought a few, you know, energy companies. And um people that build nuclear power stations, that sort of thing. And a lot of this stuff is a bit further out than I'd like. I mean, like uranium's going to be a big deal, um but it's not quite a big deal yet. Copper is going to be a much bigger deal. Um so, that's got a long way to run. So, anything copperish is good. So, copper miners are going to be good. Um you can make mistakes though cuz you can say like you can buy a company that makes uh wires. You can think they're going to people going to want wires, but unfortunately, the cost of the wires is going to go up so much, they might not be able to pass the the cost through. So, there's lots of of of things you got to be careful of. But anything to do with the onshoring and anything to do with the AI buildout, particularly the AI buildout, is is going to be very very very spicy. Yeah. Meanwhile, the UAE has built nearly 50% of a second pipeline that is supposed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. It's not supposed to be operational until 2027. Now, the market concern is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed indefinitely, probably until 2027 or even beyond. And so, a pipeline or multiple pipelines bypassing that is much needed. But for now, since we don't have a direct fix, is oil going to nearly $300, which is what we discussed last time? Well, I you know, I I It's such a wild card. I mean, what what is what is the American strategy? For me, it's just, you know, have a siege, let the Iranian oil infrastructure break or be highly damaged. I mean, it would appear, I don't know whether this is actually a thing or not, but I've seen photographs, you don't know these days whether they are or not, that Iran is actually pumping oil into the sea rather than have it back up. Yeah, so if that you know, what what a catastrophe that will be if that's what they're doing. But, you know, if America it if they found a way to stop their oil um production from breaking, then the siege isn't going to work. And then what? So, I I think it's all it's all up in the air. But, yes, capitalism always finds a way. So, I didn't know the EIA had built half a pipeline already. Um but, I don't find that hard to believe. And my position has always been it'll take them about a year to find a way around these things. And and they will find a way around it. Capitalism always finds a way. So, yes, that will flush through. Um but, what where that leaves the Middle East, I don't know. I mean, the big call is China. I mean, it was Trump Trump and China. That was the big event. And that turned out to be nothing but a boat, which is probably quite a good thing. Yeah, so you know, it's China and America. Can they do the right thing for their people and muddle along? If they can, we've got a great future. Absolutely great future. If if they absolutely insist on mucking about and, you know, increasing hostilities, then it's going to get really bad. But, I I think that um I think one way or another that the world's had a wake-up call. I think China's had a wake-up call over Taiwan. I think America's had a wake-up call over China. I think, you know, Russia's about to get a wake-up call. And so, we might go out, please, in a couple of years out of this, um, you know, situation of high volatility into some more stability. Uh, and and that will be good. But, you know, the the technological advances that are going on across the board right now are so powerful that as as long as we don't go down the road of NS, I natural stupidity, you know, the the future is very, very rosy. But, of course, there's always the lunatics, you [snorts] know, driving the bus, that can make this stuff go wrong. And and there is a lot of lunatics driving many buses out there. So, I hope that they can, you know, the world can get a little bit more stable. Um, and cuz if it if it does, it's going to be great. We'll still get a crash, but I mean, you know, I I was just in, um, Singapore, um, traveling. And, um, Singapore is renowned for many things, among which a very stable monetary authority and government policies that are predictable. I wonder, then, for an investor, instead of waiting for the world to become more stable, why not just put your money in more stable jurisdictions? Oh, uh, sure, if you've got that much money. Yeah, I mean, you you need to be geographically diversified if you've got more than a a pot to, um, you know, whatever. Yeah, if you've got a bit of money, it makes sense. I mean, the classic is to put, um, 25% in, um, productive assets in your country, keep 25% in in equities, keep 25% in cash outside of your country, and keep 25%, um, you know, i- i- in your back pocket. So, you know, spreading your assets, um, geographically makes perfect sense. And div- diversification is great, but most people don't have enough capital to need or to be able to diversify that far. And so for them, the best thing to do is, you know, have a little bit of a little bit of bonds and a lot of equities and and put them in in ETFs and and let it run. And and you know, that's worked out extremely well and I think you know, if you were to if you were to buy and hold from here, you're going to have a couple of good years and you're going to have a really terrible one and you're going to have 5 years of of wishing that you had done something and then 5 years later you said, "Oh yeah, that was back then." So, you know, that's the thing about buying and holding. If you do it judiciously, then it's it's a very it's a very solid way of going and and ETFs are the least uh demanding way of doing that because you are just buying the index or you're buying, "Oh, I like semiconductors. I'll buy the semiconductor ETF. Oh, I like rare earths. I'll buy the rare earths one. Oh, I like um I like China. I'll buy China and ETF." And and it's simplifies you you out quite a bit. But, you know, most people just don't want to put in the effort. It's boring and they don't enjoy it. So, you know, that that's why they don't want to do it and and I could totally get that. By the way, let's talk about gold before we finish up. It's under performed the S&P 500 this year. It had a great year last year beating most things. Um this year I suppose if you're a gold investor or investor having allocated to precious metals last year, should this year be the year of rotating out of precious metals into something else? Well, I've been gone since the high. So, you know, and now I look at it and I go, "Well, it's kind of it's being stodgy, isn't it?" People my audience keeps saying, "What are you getting back? What are you getting back?" And it's point is it's just another asset. I I and when I was, you know, writing a lot about Bitcoin when it was going up and when I got out and everyone was upset with me, um it was it's just another asset. Yeah. You know, it's just a get you one should focus on that. It's a very very popular asset. It's a it's a lovely one to own, so you you get kind of warm and and furry and dividends from it, but it's gone up a lot. It's I think it's very dependent on on the America-China dynamic. And I think that that has been pushed out somewhere. I think it's very dependent on the parallel trade situation with place people like Russia and Iran using gold as as their deposit account in China. So, I think you know, I think you'll find when Iran sends a a boatload of oil to China, the Chinese um pay them in gold because they don't want to pay them in yuan because they don't want to be the um you know, that the like the dollar the um global asset the global money because it's they don't want to be um in that situation. So, they just pay in gold and they just keep the gold for them in in a in a vault in China. And when Iran wants whatever it wants, it turns its um gold into whatever currency is needed and and away it goes. So, a lot of gold's been going into China because if you take the for example Iranian budget surplus in oil, it's about 16 to 18% of the of the global production of gold every year. So, if they're stacking gold rather than the holding dollars and why would they want to hold dollars because you know, that's they're at risk and it they don't can't get them into yuan because China doesn't want to be the reserve currency of the world. What makes more sense than to just buy gold? Well, that that's a that's a sample of you know, 1/5 or a little bit less than 1/5 of all the gold that's being made every year out of the ground. And of course, then you've got to add Russia on top of that. So, you know, anybody that's using gold as the reserve currency rather than the dollar because of all the sanctions is that's eating up a lot of gold and that's being held in China for those trading partners. But, that could go away. I mean, imagine the situation where Iran played nice and it was allowed to, you know, reenter the the global fellowship. Or for that matter, Russia. If that war ended and Russia, I mean, you know, made nice and was allowed to come back into the system again, that trade will go away. So, that would be really, really, really negative for gold. So, you know, it's done its run and and now it's in that post boom bubble situation. Now, whether it sits here or whether it takes a leg down, taking a leg up, highly unlikely. Can it Will it trend around here? It doesn't It doesn't look like it knows where it's going. So, I I gold is a signal for me now, not an asset. So, I look at gold and the the direction it goes tells me about what's going on. Yeah, like oil. You know, when oil goes up, you you know it's not going well in the Gulf. When oil goes down, you know, it might be, you know, things might be developing. So, I think it is a very good signal for what's going on in the global economy cuz what drives that price is driven by people that know what's going on right at a very deep level. So, it gives you an insight, a hint of what's going on. And I think at the moment, it's had its had its moment and and it will that moment is not likely to come again for quite some time. Quite some time, probably 2 years, around the same time you think the stock market is going to crash? What tends to happen, and this is, you know, past performance and etc., is when a commodity goes nuts. Yeah, it falls like a rock and and it and it flaps about and it goes all quiet and then it has another run. But, if it went from, say, 1 to 10, it'll come back down to three and it'll go around sideways and then it'll go to six and then it'll come back down again. So, there's like an aftershock. So, I would expect there to be an aftershock in a couple of years because a lot of [clears throat] people will be watching it hoping that the music will start again. Yeah, because they loved it when it you know, they sat there for 5-10 years saying that gold's going to the moon and then it did and and they feel validated and they made a lot of money and then it all half of it went away again and they feel sad and this and they're watching it cuz they know they were right. So there's there's a sort of married to the to the asset thing that goes on with commodities like that. And if you look at the '70s you'll see these aftershocks over and over again. So there will be an aftershock in gold and there will be an aftershock in silver. The one that is going to run is going to be copper. So that's the one that that I'm watching. That's the one I'm expecting to have a big run. Uh okay. Well, let's let's talk about copper in more detail next time. Final question before we take off, Clem. Thank you. What has shocked you this year? Which asset class or which trade has gone in a way that you haven't expected maybe late last year? Well, I was I when I when I looked at Intel at 20 and bought a load and accidentally bought a double load, um I thought yeah, that this thing could go to 16. And because of of the of the situation in the Gulf and all the craziness of announcements, I got out of the whole market um and and and I got out at 45 which I did exceptionally well. I'm very happy with that. And I 80, I would have definitely sold. >> [laughter] >> And then it was at 120. So I I I think I think that that surprised me because that tells you how badly wrong the American market can get something very obvious. Yeah, and and I think that that is um that is quite interesting cuz it shows you that it's it's quite a >> [sighs] >> highly strung market and can move um in very irrationally uh very quickly. And you can see the same thing going on um as happened with the Nokia which is a great company. And then suddenly it took a long time for the penny to drop. Took a long, long time for people to work out what was going on there. And I would have expected the American market to be hyper-efficient, hyper, hyper quick. And no, it's got all sorts of opportunities lying around in it that that you know that I've I've been looking at going I don't believe that. Why is that like that? And then looking at some very average stocks with incredible valuations that that beggar belief. So you know it is seems to me that the American market is extremely bipolar at the moment. And feels like the sort of market that can go on a tremendous bubble. And the point is what's the top of that? Because soon enough we're going to need to know. All right. Well, thank you very much, Clem. Tell us where we can find you and follow your work. Well, you can hear me ranting and raving on Clem Chambers Alpha on YouTube here. And my Substack is is quite popular. And where I I put lots of ideas down so that people can be a little bit more studious in reading them. It doesn't all just rush by like like like it just happened just now. So they're the two places where people can get my the bulk of my work. Okay. And a new thing which is which is a fantastic website. We've got some American prices in now. It's still very much alpha. So we've got American markets in addition to the UK market. So all those people that heard about it tried it out before it's got US stuff in it. Now we the US stuff is arriving. It's there. So come on down. We'll put the link down below. And yeah, please do check out Clem's channel. I encourage everyone to subscribe to his YouTube channel. I'll put the link down below. Clem, have a great trip in Japan. Where are you off to next? I'm off to the Formula 1 in Monaco. Back home. Amazing. All right. You have a great time. Enjoy the rest of your May and the start of your summer. We'll speak soon. Take care for now. Have fun in Bali. Thank you very much. And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.