Crude Oil SURGE, Middle East ESCALATION & What It Means For Markets!
Summary
This week, Patrick and Kevin catch up on the latest market moves, discuss the Middle East tensions and how it’s affecting crude oil …
Transcript
Hit it. It's Friday, June 20th, 2025, episode 266. I'm Patrick Szna. And I'm Kevin Mure, coming to you from a sunny and friendly London. I'm on the road to another week with no guest, but rest assured, we'll be back to regularly scheduled programming next week. You know, Kev, it's like I literally came into Toronto for one weekend. I'm like, I'm gonna get to see Kev. We maybe we could do the show live. And literally you just like take off to the other side of Atlantic. You know what it was? Like we high-fived high-fived midair. Yeah. Daniel told me you were gonna be away this week. So like I was trying to plan and I was like I you know I phoned up and said Daniel when is he going to be coming to Toronto so I can avoid it. Great job. Thanks for letting him on, Danny. All right. But uh listen, let's talk beers. Danny, you got a beer, too, right? I do. It's It's coming on the way. I can tell you about it, though. Oh, you I you know you know what? you just drink it dur throughout the episode and then tell us about it in the postgame. I'm I'm drinking the uh organic uh Mil Street um brewery logger and uh it's a it's a classic here in Toronto and just that's what I grab here on the way, but it's going to be good. Anyway, Kev, let's get to the stuff. So, why don't you give us uh the the disclaimer. Nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in the show. Side effects I just said side effects, didn't I? Yeah. Okay, we're just gonna leave it in. Side effects of too much huddle may include not being able to pronounce uh the Tyrron trigger tension, fiscal cliff flashbacks, and the OP OPEX opex obsession oscalation. So, this is what the trouble is that when No, but you already drunk. I know. like we're we flip things and I'm doing this at night and I have uh I did come from the pub to do this so I am not as crisp as I usually would be. I I I think so. This is this is this is fact. This is fact. All right, let's let's not waste any time and uh let's uh let's jump into this. All right. So, uh, so Kev, listen, let's let's dive straight into you, um, uh, talking actually not the charts, but rather what the hell's going on here in in the markets because there's, uh, this, well, well, let's break it down. Let's start with the big one. Uh, there's a a clear new war starting in the Middle East. uh how how severe it gets, how how bad it gets is the a lot of the unknowns. But clearly the the possibility that the straight of her moves is going to uh be disrupted is a real possibility. But right now the stock outside of oil prices spiking, no one seems to at least in the way that the prices are behaving the markets uh put uh much risk to this or at least they're not considering it that important. How do you size this up? Is this a nothing burger or is it at the point where the market will start to care at some point here? Well, first of all, I have not been checking on markets as much as I have as I should be. But before we do any of this, I think a big kudos has to be, you know, big shout out to somebody I know that has been long oil and, you know, pitching it on this show. I believe it wasn't just your members actually sharing some of that golden alpha with the market huddle uh listen because I had insider information. I I have like that I have that that in inside line to listen about technical analysis is remember you don't the the it's already in the price Patrick so you all you were doing was reading the chart someone else knew about the insider information and you saw that in the charts and you did it anyways I know I like to kick you but you do deserve a big kudos because you're one of the big one of the few that I actually saw that was actively pushing along and that's great and I'd love to know I you know I'm going to turn the question back in on and you are you still long? What do you how are you playing it? Uh well right now obvious positioning. There's been some active profit taking because once once let's have a quick look at the chart. So like when when you look at the chart on crude after this big jump we've re we reached a point now in this midpoint area here where I don't see much asymmetry in the trade. This is really now a geopolitical gamble because either a the thing is going to be a full-on escalation and then there we're going to have a rip to like 80 to 85 bucks on the upside or you know there's a deescalation and this thing could be at 65. And so to me this is now becoming from this level a bit of a lottery ticket in terms of what's the next um geopolitical headline coming out. And um and obviously in the next uh two weeks we're going to find out whether for instance the United States joins the um uh the confrontation. Lot lots of things that is going to um cause the oil prices to make some pretty serious swings. And uh we're going to find out uh what's next. To me, I think playing the energy stocks now is a little bit better than playing oil itself. Uh there's there's a cleaner moves that are going to be able to be uh traded in the individual energy names. Um right now I took some profits on some of the oil contracts and uh and now it's just a matter of seeing whether the next leg happens or not. Do you know who should get you on their show? You you should go on Macro Voices and talk about oil. Funny. That's You're a comedian. I like it. No. Okay. I'm gonna pitch it. I'm gonna pitch Eric on it. I'm gonna say, "Hey, there's this guy who's a really good oil trader. You should get him on the show." Actually, if you if you do listen to the show at one point, you realize we do talk about oil on the show every week, but you know what? You know what? Like, you know, I don't listen. So, exactly. So, I was going to say, go ahead and make the pitch. I'm pretty sure Eric will uh All right. He'll be very He'll be very impressed with you that doing I'm sure he's he's congratulating you across the board as well. Okay, let's go to the next um whatever you wanted. Yeah, let's just talk but talk about this like do do you think okay right now the clearly the entire impact has been almost directly on oil and it's clear that oil moved on this okay but do the stock markets start to give a [ __ ] at some point okay so I my little bit of value had for this conversation today and it's going to be limited but I and I wrote about this earlier in the week I said and it was funny because I had started Ed writing the piece before the war or the escalation, whatever you want to call it. And then I was like, screw it. I'm not going to like not write it. I'm going to continue writing. And I published it. And I said, as difficult as this sounds, I think that the rest of June is going to be really boring. And the reason it's going to be really boring is that this amount of gamma out there in the in the stock market, meaning the market makers, the amount of gamma that they're long is just huge. It's also below the market, meaning that the strike is 5905. So even as we decline, they're getting longer gamma, which means that on the dips, they're getting longer and on the rifts are getting shorter. Like it's it's increasing. So my point is that you have that and then also Patrick you have this situation with the vault control funds and the vault control funds are backwardlooking um strategy and this gamma that is weighing on the market and keeping volatility low then makes it so realized is low which means that the vault control funds are buying more which just kind of has this whole way of keeping the market bid and boring. All right. Well, you know what? I first of all, I'm a 100% agreement. That was actually the second topic we were going to talk about was the gamma pinning because I wanted to talk about the this OPEX thing. But let's just uh let's just put it this way. Next week on Friday, so today we have the the June 20th uh opex, right? And so now uh we we're closing very close to 6,000, which is a logical thing because there's a very large amount of monthlies that expire at the nice round number of 6,000. Next week we're going to have the big JP Morgan whale that you specifically referencing with that huge 5900 strike, but that okay the 30th is on Monday on a European cash settle. So the fact is is that by ne by this at the end of next week the gamma pinning's over unless we're right at it that over the weekend. No, no, over the weekend. No, the point is is that we have only one more week of pinning. And so the thing is is that there's a chance that July is going to be moving and uh and you know Patrick is that the the vault control funds will continue to be bidding. They are still like only a third of the way into their buying all their stock. The VIX. Okay. So let's have a quick look though. This is the crazy part. The stock market is uh at um the stock market is at very close to its 52- week high. I mean 150 points off but it's it's up along the highs. Volatility has become narrow. The market has traded sideways for a week and a half now. Yet the VIX is above 20. It's not back at for 15 and 16 where it was uh trading just um that's the war premium. Okay. That's the war premium and it's also Patrick. That's fine. But when you're talking about these V control funds, we don't care about the VIX. V control funds is all is all realized V. It is not on implied. So we could have a situation where the volatility risk premium meaning the amount that the implied volatility trades over realized is huge and yet it'll still the vault control funds won't care about that. They only care about realized vault. There you go. Okay. I learned something. The uh No, no, it's I I uh I actually thought implied actually matter to them, but it does not matter. So what implied matter about is that is the VANA bid and offer in ter sorry the Vanna delta change. So when you get a decline in the in the implied based on the way that the the market makers are usually set up that causes more buying. So that is the van bid that you will often see. So a lot of times like going into a weekend you'll have two things happening. you'll have a charm bid because of the the the movement forward in time means that the market makers need to buy more and then also you'll often get as it rallies you'll get a decline in the implied and then that will also cause a VA bit. So you will have a Vanna and a charm bid on a lot of like slow long weekends or or weekends but um it doesn't necessarily need to be the vault controls completely separate. It's com and it's completely backwardlooking on historical, right? So here's my call, Kev. While I'm in complete agreement with you for the next one week, the vol the gamma pinning is going to be the strongest force in the market barring some surprise attack uh that throws the market a huge curveball that that kind of pushes the market out of the gravitational pull of this gamma pin. Yeah. But but beyond beyond that circumstance, next week is going to be quiet. But my call is July is gonna already wake up. It's gonna be spicy. It's gonna be spicy by July. I I think July and and maybe not uh the first week of July, but I think as we get into the July opex and all that big uh um amount of earnings that are coming out in July, I I honestly think that it's not going to be a quiet summer. I I I'm not going to push back on you, Patrick, because I also think that we're going to get finally the tariffs are going to start to kick in. you're going to start to see those things in terms of the numbers. I think there's a numerous things coming due and the complacency out there is huge. So, I'm not no push back from me, buddy. I I just think that maybe you're right. It's not going to be the first week of July, you know, because don't forget we have July 4th. We have a bunch of things in there. So, maybe it's like mid July. I don't know. But I hear you. Like, everyone thinks the summers always are boring. I remember lots of summers where crazy stuff happens because everyone's gone, right? Like everyone's gone. There gets to be some information, the market is set up in a weird way. Next thing you know, it's like trading all over the map. So, I'm not we're we're we're going to be almost three months of sustained rallying uh by the time we get to July, right? We're like 75 days into uh this current advance off of the market low. So, add another week or two of of market. We're 3 months into a market that's pushed 26 27% on the upside in a fluid motion. Long overdue for a correction. And it doesn't have to be uh the beginning of a next bare market. But I just volatility is going to be back. There's going to be some proper swing, something that's going to uh correct this market from this move. I'm I'm calling that. But let's Hey, well listen people, listen up. He called the oil. He's calling this long at your peril, you know. No, no, that's that's the opposite. Now, now you're [ __ ] gutchering it on me. I'm No, no, no. As long as you're not saying that. Are you okay? Are you gonna be short? Because if we're both short and we're talking this way, then then then it's not going to work. I'm almost always short. Okay. I'm not very tall. Like you doesn't have beside me. Like I'm not. So here you're such a wanker. Okay. So let's let's uh let's talk the last topic and then we'll go and do a bunch of these options. Sorry, the charts. Well, serious. Yeah, we're going to get serious here. Okay. Uh but uh what I want to though talk about is the Fed. Okay. So, so the FOMC uh once again uh gave the expectation they were doing nothing and they did nothing. So, we have it now a scenario where the market is pricing in I think two rate cuts this year. Uh at least that's the highest probability that we let's have a September and a December cut or something like this. And I think they're pricing right now like four cuts for uh combined uh for next year. So uh no sorry two this year two next year. So four combined altogether in the cycle. Um is the is this uh too uh optimistic in terms of hawkishness like I my spidey hawkishness or doubbishness? Well I think no I I think that the cuts are going to be deeper. I think that that like the market is not pricing enough of them. So, how would you alert that? What So, one second before we go any further, I just want to let everyone know that I had the a great macro tourist meet up and I promised a shout out to them and this is the perfect time to have the shout out. And I'm going to tell you why it's the perfect time. Patrick, when we're sitting there and I'm talking and everyone's all of a sudden starts talking about the 61s and they're like, "Are you long the 61s?" And I'm like, "What?" like and everyone's talking about the 61s and there's some bond that is um a a UK like a government bond that was issued in 2021 with like a like almost a zero coupon. Yeah. Like it was like 0.5 or 0.25 or maybe an eighth or something. I'm not really sure but super low coupon, right? Like dumb super low coupon. And now obviously with rates way up it's gone to like I don't know 40 cents on the dollar or some stupid number like that. But the thing is, Patrick, here they actually don't pay tax on that capital gain. Okay. Oh, wow. So, everyone I meet, it's long these bots. It is the craziest thing I've ever seen. And so, I So, we had a great meet out meet up. It was terrific. Thank you everyone for coming. I had an absolute blast. They were like just a terrific bunch of folks. Uh, we went out drinking, we had steaks. It was awesome. Just a terrific time. But then the next night, I'm at a more sophisticated um kind of institutional thing. And I'm like, "Okay, I'm going to see if these guys in my group are like telling the truth." And I'm going to be like, "All right, like, can you guys tell me about this 2061s or whatever?" And sure enough, everyone in London is long this thing. It is. Everyone is long. Everyone is bond trader. Everyone owns these things. And they're all sitting there. Patrick So, they're all bond traders and they're all kind of a little bit of a part of them is hoping rates go back down and they make all this money. Well, the thing is that's but that's a bet on the that's but listen that's that's actually the wrong part of the cur sorry the the duration that I want to talk about right no but at least Patrick is because you're not bullish enough buddy because you know you you should you used to love the long end because rates are going back to zero. I I actually uh don't hate the long bond, but that's not the conversation I want. Can I Can I interest you in some 2061s? Yes. And then the funniest part is there's one nice guy there who's a sellside trader, you know, and something else. He starts talking to us about, you know, you should really roll them down into the 201s, blah blah blah. They're like sitt like and you know what Patrick it's such a different environment because like in New York or Toronto we'd be talking stocks and instead everyone's talking bonds and they're all your peeps buddy. They're all long the bond because it's taxfree. So I was just I just wanted to put that out there. Thank you everyone for coming and I hope your 2061s work because it seems like all of London owns them. Well, somebody's got to own them, bud. Somebody's got to own them. I I'd love to I'd love to see who was the bag holder on the way down. But anyway, the uh so let's let's go talk the Fed. Let's go back to this thing. So Oh, yeah. So So wait and my view my view is this uh let me and then you can call [ __ ] on it and No, I'm probably not going to be what you think I'm going to be. But but my view right now is that it's incredibly asymmetric. And why do I say it's incredibly asymmetric is because uh I feel that the chances that the market is going to pull those four rate cuts out of the market is an outlier. Like I think that the there some what would have to happen for them to go that much more hawkish that they're pulling uh those rate cuts that are already priced in out of the market. It could happen, but I don't view it as a as a high risk. what I do of you really what you don't I think I think you're a little too casual about that risk but I'm not going to disagree with you I feel like the tales are extreme on either side but anyways go on I yeah and but my my second thing is is that you know the the Fed has historically uh always kept things too tight till something breaks. I remember that David Rosenberg chart that uh was all showing that through all the previous rate hike cycles, the Fed stays tight until some something breaks in the financial system than the plumbing and they're forced to cut more aggressively. And now all I'm just saying, the fact that they continue to delay the rate cut cycle increases the likelihood that something in the plumbing seizes. It doesn't have to be a great financial crisis, but I think that something in this system is going to crack and the Fed is going to have to be much more dovish than the is currently priced in. I think there could be at least a hundred more basis points put in on the rate cut cycle. And this is why I'm looking here on the chart on the sofur uh uh two December 2026s. I think I I don't see it as an unrealistic target for this thing to go 97 and a half to 98 uh uh on an upside move. And I don't see that much downside risk. I'm long this [ __ ] Okay, now tell me why I'm wrong. Well, no, I'm not gonna tell you. Well, I'll tell you why you're wrong. You You quoted a David Rosenberg chart to me, and you should know better than that. Okay. Like that. Jimmy with um I think you're underestimating the chance of inflation spiking and the Fed even though they don't um nobody will want them to and it'll be uh a whole shitow potentially, you know, at at the very least taking out all those cuts and potentially raising. I'm not saying that that's a high likelihood. I'm just saying that you have said there's no way that's happening and I'm gonna say there's a greater chance than you think. I just said outlier. That's an outlier. Okay. But it almost But what are you going to give it a quarter chance? Like 25%. What do you want to say? No, I'd say less than that. I would say less than that. So I'm not disagreeing with you, but but I could also see them just going leaving it here for a long time. But I will this is where I will get in in into your camp. And I I I recently from my weekly wrap-up, I clipped this uh Gunlock video and he started talking about how the market is increasingly starting to price the potential for a new Fed chair coming in and just slashing rates by 200 basis points. And so we might get a situation. I haven't done the work yet. It's my job when I come back to like figure this all out. But I suspect there's going to be some spreads in there that the smart guys are already trading. Um, and if Gunlock's talked about it, that means that even the non-smart guys have figured it out. And then there was me that's like even I have to wait for Gunlock to tell me. But anyways, my point is that I I I really do worry about a new Fed chair that just like lowers rates 200 basis points. And so when you said this thing where there's a chance that the Fed, you know, panics, I agree with you. There's a chance that the Fed panics because the economy goes down. I also think there's a chance the Fed panics, not panics, but gets super aggressive even without the economy going down in the period when Bernaki is replaced. Sorry. Yeah. This is what happens when you let me drink. Even in the period when Powell is replaced. So the market might start looking at this like because they're talking about putting in this uh shadow Fed share. So let's imagine they put in a shadow Fed share and he says things like okay rates are whatever they are now four and a quarter I like whatever if they if if it comes down to me I'm going to lower them to two right so all of a sudden Powell will be saying these things so Powell will be like no no we're leaving rates here the the balance it's balanced it's you know it's it's equal risk of up and down and then meanwhile the market might go and price in that like a year and a half from now or a year from now, whatever the period is, and I got to go figure it out. I think it's May next year. When is it like when is it that I don't know the date? I think it's May next year. So, all of a sudden, come June, there's like a 200 basis point cut in there. And I know that seems extreme, but like this is this is Trump. Don't don't don't discount anything. Yeah. And like there's already, you know, talk about who he's going to put in there and things like that. Lots of different names going around. A lot of people think it's Moran. Other people think it's War. There's some talk that it's going to be Zervos. But you know who my pick is? You tell me. The head of macro for Einhorn. This guy has been like, you know, saying how great Trump is all the time. I figure he's like a shoe in. There you go. I haven't followed that, but uh you got to follow it anyway. So, so to your point, I think that this this you're going to we're going to have to figure out which contract it is that's post the the the new Fed share and I think that that thing could get bid even higher. Like I think that this will be the thing to watch. I love it. I love it. I I uh think the market is underpricing that. All right. So, I hear have a chart on the long bond. So, let's talk about uh this is not the 61s, but uh but nonetheless is the US bond. But the thing is we came and retested technically this previous low right and uh while we still had a lower low back um on the on the bond here in 2023 that doesn't correspond with the five that the level on the yields itself. So let me actually just put put it up on the actual 30-year yield. And what we can observe is where we retested uh the previous all-time not alltime but multi-deade highs of interest rates uh up along that 5% yield up there. And here we are in a situation where you may have your perfect scenario where uh we may see the long bond actually uh break down as the yields break this level. And I don't think that there's enough people actually um talking about this outside of your little clique of bond haters. Um like you're like a bond hater club. Uh but beyond you guys, I don't hear anyone talking about this, but I think that if we had a breakout above this kind of 5510 level on the long bond, uh at some point it's going to become people are going to be like, "What the [ __ ] going on?" All right. like uh and and it could and it could actually u uh you know create a feedback loop of of negativity that is now very uh complacent. It's almost like oil was complacent before that move, right? Like it it it's it's a scenario where nobody's talking about this, but this long bond could rip or or or sell off, sorry, and the and the yields could rip. Um welcome to the dark side of the force. I am only observing technicals, Kevin. It's not I am not I'm not I am I don't I reject the the membership card for your Bonhater club. Like I I'm only I'm only looking at the squiggles, my friend. Well, that's fine. Welcome to the club. Even for the squiggle members have a special membership only when squiggles look bad. Yeah. Okay. I like it. Yeah. Listen, you know me. I've been in the Bond. I think that Yeah. If if you if if they had gone ahead and tried to like make a deficit of 3% of GDP and they were they were having the deficit uh then I might be in the bond like bull camp or at the very least I would put aside my membership and put it on hold like make myself an out of town member. Um but in the meantime it's like they're actually going the opposite way. Like this is going from six to maybe seven or eight. Who knows? like they keep spending the rest of the world's spending. There's a lot of chance for a real big problem. The the to me I like I I try to be impartial towards US politics. I'm not an American so I don't get involved that way, but I I really thought when they were coming in with Doge that they were really trying to uh to bring down that fiscal spending and rein everything in and that big beautiful bill just uh demonstrates the complete opposite. And um and so, you know, once once that kind of came out, then it's like I I immediately was like, "No, you can't you can't use that playbook that they're going to uh they're going to bring it down." And it's um and so to me, this is still very much a maybe this is what's going to happen. That has to break the big beautiful bill. It has to be the interest rate markets and bond vigilantes basically saying, "You guys got to slow down." So, but what but why do they It's beautiful. Why? Like, we don't want that. It's a beautiful house. It's beautiful. It's big and it's beautiful. It's beautiful. Yeah. All right. Let's talk uh let's talk the currency. So, uh the US dollar index did temporarily make a lower low. Uh and I want to briefly kind of dissect where this is coming from. Uh because it really is driven right now by the euro currencies. The the euro and the and the pound have been making higher highs. So, the euro bros slightly higher high. a little flagging formation for bull continuation that pound sterling broke to a higher high recent few days had a little bit of a pullback but they're very much trending but this is not um uh the correspondent with all the currencies in the basket like for instance that US dollar yen has been uh actually not only quite rangebound but it's been quietly creeping uh a little bit higher now I'm not trying to make a bull call here on the US yen, but rather to observe that this isn't a US dollar route anymore where suddenly, you know, this uh you know, US dollar down and all other cross currencies up. You you've got actually a bit of a mixed bag. And and I I continue to be in the camp that I think it's far more likely that the dollar is going to be far more rangebound. But this is such an important moment because uh if I'm gonna have if my rangebound thesis is there, like it can't break to lower lows and just keep going, right? Like this is like a make it or break it moment on on whether or not the US dollar is heading to the 95 handle or lower. Uh, I still think this bounce might stick, but I'm not bullish the dollar because of it. I think we might get up to like 101, 102, retest that May high and then and be far more sideways uh rangebound. I'm not su super excited about a short-term currency move. The next time I think there'll be a big currency move, it's going to be when the whole uh intermarkets uh start buzzing again, like when the stock market starts moving, where everything goes maybe, you know, mid to late July or something. But on the short term, I'm kind of neutral here. Do you have any convictions on your currency plays here? Do I have any convictions? No. Like especially over the over the short run, I think I agree with you. And in fact, you could maybe make the argument that there's too many people short and that it's due for a squeeze. Um, having said that longer term, I'm actually more convinced it has to go a lot lower. But um that's always right. It's trading tra trading versus long-term positioning. Right. Right. I'm still putting together my currency kind of thoughts because I must say here in London they really talk a lot of currency. So I've had a lot of things coming at me. But I will agree that there is a lot of folks that from a trading and short-term perspective seem to be short the currency. and night. And I do worry that we'll get us that we'll get a exactly what you're talking about. You know, a rally that gets people kind of bowled up and then you spend your summer chopping around it and does go goes nowhere and then it's actually in the fall that it goes down. I like I I won't I won't dismiss that at all, Patrick. Yeah. And that's uh that's the camp I'm in on that front. Um the um the next thing I want to talk about is uh is the precious metal. And so gold went um for that double top retest of its previous high. Few days of giving some back, but by no means a violation of the primary uptrend. It's above all its moving averages. It's still um uh making higher highs and higher lows. So this is uh just the gold market hitting resistance and and pausing. So I'm I'm not in any way trying to pivot, but it is um testing a major high. I mean, if there was ever such a thing as it forming a double top, it has to be off of a retest of its previous high. And so, there's always a possibility that this begins a little bit of selling, but I'm just not in that camp. Things just look uh like the momentum is just building in precious metals, particularly in the secondary markets like the silver, platinum, and platium just picking up steam. Uh I I I still think that gold makes the breakout here and I don't see any reason why we can't see a 36 or 3700 gold uh this summer like just a a continuation of this on the upside where I will uh immediately take back that and admit that something different is happening is if the 3,300 level gives out um that so right now long as this dip is held above 3,300 I'm looking for those upper targets. You still bullish gold? Still bullish. Um I think if you didn't know what this chart was and someone put this in front of you, you'd have to say you you should buy it. In my in my limited squiggle uh analysis capabilities, that's how I view that. All right. I like it. Your limited skills are confirming now. But the uh but let's look at the other precious metals. So silver uh had a this kind of like $1 down day here. Uh but that was after an extended move higher. And so after we've seen that move, we're now due for some sort of retracement. Look at this. Like the a 50% retracement lines up perfectly with the 50-day moving average, which is basically a pullback that could go to like the $34 to $35 area. Uh at this moment, old dip should be bought. This was a legitimate bull breakout. Silver went a little hot and pullbacks happen all the time. Buying the bull back is the only logical thing at this stage. It could still drop another dollar, but uh it should be bought on dip is my current positioning on that. Um any comment or you want to keep going? No comment. Just keep going. All right. So the the next thing just let's look at that platinum and platium. Now um platinum uh what an epic run. I'm going to put this just on a weekly chart so we can really put into context just the magnitude of this rise like uh for for three years uh uh platinum has basically traded in like a 200 point trade range uh from let's say uh uh 900 to 1100 was this like three-year trade range here we ripped basically 400 points uh in in literally less than two months uh from from trough to peak uh and we haven't seen this kind of action in in uh platinum since uh the 2020 move and so it it's really woken up. Obviously these things can retrace at some point there'll be little dips like silver coming down. You can see today it's down a little bit but uh with this kind of momentum these this feels almost bubbish like like a dip here could be bought and this thing could rip to 1500 or 1700. it it really um has uh picked up some traction and I don't want to fade this too early. I think this this is a momentum play. Any any uh anything to add? I know I got nothing to add except that the best markets never let you in and I'm really wondering if that's what it'll be with platinum. There you go. Now, the one that's lagging that is really interesting to me is Platium, though. Like look at um it broke its basic uh one-year trade range. So, it was stuck in this trade range essentially uh for since uh November of last year. So, let's call it like a 9-month trade range or something. So, we broke to a higher high above the moving averages. This dip is holding the fibbr retracement zones. This looks like a bull continuation pattern. Uh I think that we could have a run to 12,300. It's been the lagard in the precious metals, but it's a bullish chart that looks like it's ready to go. Okay, it could be. I I kind of look at that and go, "Oh, I I don't need to play. I'd rather own the the one that's leading." All right. Well, I mean, that's just that's a trading position. You do you play momentum or do you play the lagard catching up? That's always like the big trading debate. Yeah. When amongst everything, right? Like which which angle do you take there? Um but anyway, I think that this is a lots of room to to get going. The other thing I wanted to to um we already talked oil so I want to talk about um uranium. Now uh let's first start by talking about uranium stocks. I'm just going to use the URA because like what a drop and pop like we went through this like six, seven month or even longer bare market where where we uh saw saw these things lose 30 40% of their value and then just this extraordinary rip 100% move in in less than three months. It's it's insane how much uranium stocks the story got hot. But what was interesting I want what I want to first of all you you it's hard to buy it once it's already doubled. Uh, I still feel like you need to at this point switch to you either have to put on trades using some sort of option strategy that builds the asymmetry in this in let's say a a bull call spread or some other form where where you can actually have a a definable risk because where the freak would you put your stop losses when you're buying this thing? uh you know like it's it's it's a it's it's kind of tough to to to to size the risk when there's the this big of a move. Uh but nonetheless, I I need personally need a pullback to buy more at any stage here. The um but what I wanted to just highlight though was that the U308 uh uranium was dragging its heels, right? And it it's uh the e the uranium equities went on this huge bull run and spot prices uranium didn't move until last week when we uh or earlier this week when we got this uh this $5 jump in the U308 to 75 bucks and suddenly spot prices of uranium have woken up. Now, everyone keeps making fun of this as the hedge fund hotel, but I think after a 15month uh decline, I think the hedge funds have uh actually all vacated that hotel um pretty thoroughly. Uh so the question is is that is uh is this um the beginning of a bull run in uh in spot uranium? Um, so I guess I'm going to disagree with you that they the hedge funds have checked out of the hotel. So that's they haven't checked out. They're still in that hotel. Um, having said that, it's a small market and spot was actually trading lower than it should be. Like I remember, didn't I, didn't we talk about the uranium whisperer? Did I talk about this here? Yeah. Um and he was talking about how term was uh you know trading much higher and that the spot was actually the problem. So what I think is happening here is that spot had a little bit of overhang and there was still too many people in the in the uh in that hotel. And it's not just like the U.un by the way or the spot. It's there's YCA and then there's even hedge fund guys that own the somehow they own uranium in the spot market which makes no sense to me. I don't understand how they do it, but I do know that there's people that are capable of of of warehousing uranium and they're doing that as a way to play it. Um, so what I think happened here, Patrick, was that some guys got together and go, "Oh, you know what? Spot's trading too much low, too much, too low. Have a look at the stocks. The stocks there's all this bull market and in the stocks there's a bull market in the term. So, let's buy some of the um spot." It actually went up. They pushed the SBUT or the U.UN to a even uh meaning that it was used to be at a discount. They pushed it to even at that point. They then went and did a $200 million bot deal. Uh that bot deal was actually supposed to be 100 million at the first, you know, when it was upsized to 200. And that 200 million had to get uh resulted in 200 million spot being bought. And it's in essence cleaned up the market. and uh friend of the show, you know, one of our guys is that we talked to on the on the rag, he was, you know, foaming at the mouse saying when they did this uh new issue, he said that it's going to clean up spot and head higher. Um I don't know. I haven't been following it that closely. I'm still a little worried though. It still feels like a hedge fund hotel to me. I I guess that's the only part that I'll push back on is that uh I could see this U.UN you end going right back to a 10 20% discount. This I get. Sorry. Go ahead. The discount is for sure. Like let's be that's just a closed end fund thing, right? The No, but it's even now. So you're paying even. Fair. Fair. Like so you I so but the point here is is that uh that even if let's say um that we see a drag in the the um U.U UN versus that of spot won't change the fact that spot prices may in fact be starting a new trend. Uh and um and so you know the we might just see a drag on performance on the one versus the other. But I but the question in the bigger picture is is that did uranium start now finally a new bull trend after spending 15 16 months in a very distinct bare market decline and um and is it the start because listen if something can be in a bare market for 15 months it could be in a bull market for two years right if this is so you're you're just kind of stepping back and going this thing's been going down for a couple years is it finally over I I will agree with you there I don't know though if it's um I don't know if this is the spot to buy it. I I I suspect you'll get a better chance to buy it this summer. That that's my gut, but maybe I'm wrong. You know what? Buy on dips is always something I welcome. Like uh it's but I feel though that if we can um if it's about the confidence level of whether or not that April low was the low, right? like if you're buying dips versus rips is just being tactical about entries, which is the really uh uh you know u just you being a trader. The um the one thing that I want to just wrap up here, let's uh I want to just go through some of these global indices uh and particularly what I wanted to highlight. Okay, so Nikk broke to a higher high seems to be trending uh all right approaching some very key overhead resistance levels where put in its highs in two late 2024 25 maybe a formidable uh overhead resistance but we had the go going back the S&P 500 was just very heavy toppy almost rolling over a little bit but what was interesting is the euro stock on the other hand for the last two weeks has actually been selling we got a closed below its 50-day moving average. Actually, a week of trading now below its 50-day moving average. And so, it's certainly fading much quicker uh than both the NIK and the S&P 500. Uh and I wasn't necessarily even expecting this and I'm just observing. I don't even know if I have a strong conviction on actually what it means, but but there's definitely been some uh more active distribution in Europe and I'm curious whether this is going to continue. Uh any thoughts or anything that you want? You know what? I don't have any view except that it is um summer and the Europeans go home like it's could be like slow. Um and you know there probably is a little bit of disappointment that the the fiscal stimulus isn't coming as fast as everyone hoped and so it's a little bit of selling it. I think like again once again I will say that I I think I'm a I'm a long-term bull on the rest of the world including Europe. Um, but I I think that you could see a summer of uh down markets and so I'm here. Yeah. And like and what I like about you, Patrick, is that you're like you're not letting fundamentals get in the way. You're saying look chart like what's your technical term? Looks like [ __ ] Um, it does. It really does. It's like it's hard to get excited about that chart. Well, I mean, look, it was exciting for the rip higher. I mean, there was some great money made, but like why is it a relative underperformers? Right. That's what I'm saying. Like Yeah. Yeah. I don't think yeah I don't know except that it's it's getting sold and that's maybe all that you should do is observe that and say someone knows more. All right so I want to talk about three more charts and then we're done. Okay. All right. So so here it is. Number one the sunsex. So when we're talking India it's been trading sideways for a month after a nice rip. This looks like a bull continuation pattern. If this thing breaks to a a higher high from its May high, uh that may open up that move to to run back to the um September October high that put in uh up near 86 87,000. So I'm looking to see whether or not India has a continuation on the upside. Um the other one I wanted to just highlight was the uh in Brazil the um IO Visa uh this flagging formation is attempting a bull breakout. It's that it's not yet broken to a higher high, but this is how they start. If this also breaks out, we might have a bull continuation pattern in there as well. So, you know, and and the last one is just broadly looking at the uh the emerging market. So, rather than picking cherry-picking, this is just the EM. And it's been pulling back for the last little bit, but it's been one of the hottest markets. And the thing that I'm watching here is that this pullback that we've gotten here has been in the past the type of pullback that almost immediately got bought on dip. So it'll be very interesting to see whether the buy on dip traders show up after in these four five down days that we've seen here. Is the are we going to see the typical buy on dip response or is uh or is this going to be one of those things where they don't show up and this turns into a deeper pullback. I I always give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. So, this is a very interesting buy on dip level that we'll be seeing whether or not uh it gets bought on here. Any comment on these emerging markets that talked about? Uh I love this last chart and I I will very definitely be in the camp that says that that dip will get bought and that will stay above the 50-day moving average and that that is something you want to continue. How much do you buy X uh China or or this EM where that includes China? I have no problem with China from a from a a financial point of view. Okay. So, I like I you know like I like Yeah. Do I am I am I excited about uh about them about what they're doing? But there's lots of country on so I'm excited about what they're doing. How about uh how about um from the natural intermarket relationship perspective? Do uh do you have uh any concerns that if we have a very short-term dollar rip that this could drag on these or do you think that these can just keep going even if there is some short-term dollar strength? I think the short-term dollar strength will hurt them, but I don't think that it'll hurt them enough that you should not buy them. Okay. I think any short I think any dollar strength will be limited in its scope and very quickly sold. So, I I would just I would use that as just a chance to buy more. That's kind of my gut. That's all I've got, Kev. You know, I think this is a good a good place for you to get back into the pubs and and go for another round. Okay. By the way, I What is with this Patrick? Like I'm drinking a Diet Coke and the thing caps don't come off. That's a European thing. They spent a lot of money creating the caps don't fall off everywhere. Annoying. So what is the point of it? So it's not killing some seagull. Yes, exactly. So it's like uh it's so that there isn't the the polluted caps everywhere. I'm glad I didn't kill a seagull, but it sure is a pain to drink. Okay, thank you everyone for tuning in. We appreciate it. Um Patrick, where can they find you? You can find me at bigpicturerttrading.com and Kev, where can they find you? Then go to macrotours.com and listen, bare market, bull market. We're just happy for everyone to spend some time together on this crazy ride. Stick around for the after show. All right. Well, uh, Danny's got to get on here. And, uh, so Danny, what beer did you end up drinking? Oops. Oh, what was it? Uh, do you know what? I I went for something that is probably going to shock all of you. I went for a laga chandi. Do you know what that is? What? No, I don't. Yeah. Sure. That looks like you put fruit in there. No fruit. No, no, no. You have You have So, instead of a pint, you do a half a pint of beer and then you top it with lemonade. So, it's like a spritz. It's like beer spritz. Okay, that's soft. There's You know what? Why would you Why would you destroy that delicious taste of the beer by putting lemonade? This is lemon. This is an awful idea. You dilute it so that you don't get drunk and then you uh and you uh ruin the taste of the beer. You you you're voted out of the the show. You're out. Anybody come on. So Danny, tell let's let's hear this. Rate one out of 10 on your chi uh whatever you call this thing. How would you rate the deliciousness of this this concoction that you made? Yeah. Well, for me actually, I think it was incredibly refreshing. So, I give it a seven out of 10 to be honest. Oh my god. And see, you get amateur score. Don't even give it a When the wives have their morning breakfast with the stuff, we'll send Danny Danny to like, you know, make chambies for them. Mimosas. That's what they call. That's mimosas. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, Patrick, what is yours? No, it's the Mil Street organic lagger. Uh, it's it's not super clean drinking logger. Uh, in the in the scope of loggers, uh, I like this. It's like a 7.5. It's a solid solid. You know what? It's nice, clean, light. It's It's a perfect summer beer. So, we were talking, Daniel and I were talking before and he was mentioning how it's so hot in London and people are losing their minds. But little does he know that tomorrow in Toronto it's getting stupid hot. Yes. Like, it's stupid hot. Like, and you know what? I came from Italy where it was 34 degrees. Oh, so it's your was ridiculous. It's uh and so like I just like it follows me around like I can't get a break. That's the That's your problem. Like you brought it with you. Let me see what the Yeah, it's it's it's it's pretty bad, man. Like it's not like Portugal is dry whereas here it's very humid. So it's Sunday Sunday's 33. Tomorrow's only 27. So I'll still be all right tomorrow. I'll be on a plane before this [ __ ] hits. Back to 40 degrees in Portugal. Perfect. Yeah, something like that. Yeah, it's a dry heat. It's okay. Yeah. Um, so how have things been? Like, uh, how's the in the old hood, Patrick? Oh, it's nice. You know what? Yeah. Uh, the kids, the original Rum Shack, the the It's all It's awesome. It's awesome. The original Rum Shack. Everything's good. You're there. Like, someone still has that house. One of one of my uh uh No, it was the rum shack was moved to uh to one of the other guys. Oh, you guys moved. The leg Exactly. The legacy continues, my friend. Oh, but uh one of my uh I flew in one of my uh good buddies is uh turning 50 years old. Uh one of my best friends. And so uh had to come into for the celebration. It's going to I'm going to get plastered tomorrow for sure. Speaking of getting plastered, everyone that I met in London, not everyone, but a lot of them loved your 12 pubs of Christmas, uh, they want to join you. Oh, really? And it is something they do in England. Of course, that's where it originated from actually. I confirmed that. I confirmed that. I'm just saying that I confirmed it wasn't made up in your own mind. This is actually something that exists. I thought it might have been something you guys just But you know what? I I'd love to, you know, Danny went through uh a bunch of those rules that there's like these different rules you could make uh at each pub. Uh and I think that the next level is to for us to introduce some rules cuz we just we just only rule you had to finish one pint in the 30 minutes that you're there. Like that's that was the only rule we had to just go the distance. But do you not do you not realize that there's an entire film made about this? No. What? It's called It's called World's End. What? Exactly. Jinx. World's End. World's End. It's It's an actual film that was made about this. It's a comedy. Okay. All right. Well, uh I now know I need to watch. Guess Simon Peg made it. I think it's Oh my gosh. This is awesome. Exactly. Some night nighttime viewing for you. This is download and watch it on the plane. Yeah. Yeah, you should. You should. It's B. World's End is basically the last pub that they need to get to. That's awesome. 12. Patrick, this is like nap. I love it. I love it. There you go. No, but now you know what the Now the hardcore thing is to grab the boys and come to London for Christmas and do it in London. But the or You should. I'm telling you, they would love it. You would have a crew like you've never seen before. I I think this is a great idea because the if there's any one place they would appreciate what we do, it's London. That's true. That's true. It's like That's true. You should do it, Patrick. I think you're on the hook. You just said it. No, I'll tell you. No, I'll tell you. Like, for instance, if I did a 12 pubs in Lisbon, it just wouldn't be appreciated. Like, it's it's uh you get like three you get like three English guys with you. Meanwhile, if you do it in London, there'd be like a you know, 250 of you like Mark like taking over pubs, you'd actually you'd have to actually I bet you that if you did this properly, you would have to limit it because you guys would take over pubs and it wouldn't be doable. Oh, that is always the problem. Like uh I have I had my good buddy Bull that uh was the one that was doing it in Chelsea out there in in uh in London and uh their crew was something like 60 70 people and they would just go to the one bar uh for for a pint and like literally they would walk in and they could they couldn't even fit in like the and the waitresses are like uh just going insane like you have to pretty much almost pre-order the beers so that there's the table outside with with all of the pints already listed and prepaid for and they're just You know what you should get? You should get your the your assistant there, Patrick, to go ahead and pre-order them. That's genius. They're just running ahead and like ordering 60 beers so that you guys get there and they're just waiting and everyone just grabs one. Genius. It is. Listen, I'm in. Yeah, of course you're in. You're English. Yeah. All right. Well, listen, Kevin, you got to we'll let you go, but you got to you got to have some fun out there. Say hi to all those uh uh huddlers out there. Yeah. No, it's been an absolute great time and I've actually really appreciate it and everyone's been so kind and it's terrific place and I'll definitely be coming back. All right, we'll see you guys later. Yeah, cheers. We'll we'll be back in a couple weeks. Thanks everyone. Take care.
Crude Oil SURGE, Middle East ESCALATION & What It Means For Markets!
Summary
This week, Patrick and Kevin catch up on the latest market moves, discuss the Middle East tensions and how it’s affecting crude oil …Transcript
Hit it. It's Friday, June 20th, 2025, episode 266. I'm Patrick Szna. And I'm Kevin Mure, coming to you from a sunny and friendly London. I'm on the road to another week with no guest, but rest assured, we'll be back to regularly scheduled programming next week. You know, Kev, it's like I literally came into Toronto for one weekend. I'm like, I'm gonna get to see Kev. We maybe we could do the show live. And literally you just like take off to the other side of Atlantic. You know what it was? Like we high-fived high-fived midair. Yeah. Daniel told me you were gonna be away this week. So like I was trying to plan and I was like I you know I phoned up and said Daniel when is he going to be coming to Toronto so I can avoid it. Great job. Thanks for letting him on, Danny. All right. But uh listen, let's talk beers. Danny, you got a beer, too, right? I do. It's It's coming on the way. I can tell you about it, though. Oh, you I you know you know what? you just drink it dur throughout the episode and then tell us about it in the postgame. I'm I'm drinking the uh organic uh Mil Street um brewery logger and uh it's a it's a classic here in Toronto and just that's what I grab here on the way, but it's going to be good. Anyway, Kev, let's get to the stuff. So, why don't you give us uh the the disclaimer. Nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in the show. Side effects I just said side effects, didn't I? Yeah. Okay, we're just gonna leave it in. Side effects of too much huddle may include not being able to pronounce uh the Tyrron trigger tension, fiscal cliff flashbacks, and the OP OPEX opex obsession oscalation. So, this is what the trouble is that when No, but you already drunk. I know. like we're we flip things and I'm doing this at night and I have uh I did come from the pub to do this so I am not as crisp as I usually would be. I I I think so. This is this is this is fact. This is fact. All right, let's let's not waste any time and uh let's uh let's jump into this. All right. So, uh, so Kev, listen, let's let's dive straight into you, um, uh, talking actually not the charts, but rather what the hell's going on here in in the markets because there's, uh, this, well, well, let's break it down. Let's start with the big one. Uh, there's a a clear new war starting in the Middle East. uh how how severe it gets, how how bad it gets is the a lot of the unknowns. But clearly the the possibility that the straight of her moves is going to uh be disrupted is a real possibility. But right now the stock outside of oil prices spiking, no one seems to at least in the way that the prices are behaving the markets uh put uh much risk to this or at least they're not considering it that important. How do you size this up? Is this a nothing burger or is it at the point where the market will start to care at some point here? Well, first of all, I have not been checking on markets as much as I have as I should be. But before we do any of this, I think a big kudos has to be, you know, big shout out to somebody I know that has been long oil and, you know, pitching it on this show. I believe it wasn't just your members actually sharing some of that golden alpha with the market huddle uh listen because I had insider information. I I have like that I have that that in inside line to listen about technical analysis is remember you don't the the it's already in the price Patrick so you all you were doing was reading the chart someone else knew about the insider information and you saw that in the charts and you did it anyways I know I like to kick you but you do deserve a big kudos because you're one of the big one of the few that I actually saw that was actively pushing along and that's great and I'd love to know I you know I'm going to turn the question back in on and you are you still long? What do you how are you playing it? Uh well right now obvious positioning. There's been some active profit taking because once once let's have a quick look at the chart. So like when when you look at the chart on crude after this big jump we've re we reached a point now in this midpoint area here where I don't see much asymmetry in the trade. This is really now a geopolitical gamble because either a the thing is going to be a full-on escalation and then there we're going to have a rip to like 80 to 85 bucks on the upside or you know there's a deescalation and this thing could be at 65. And so to me this is now becoming from this level a bit of a lottery ticket in terms of what's the next um geopolitical headline coming out. And um and obviously in the next uh two weeks we're going to find out whether for instance the United States joins the um uh the confrontation. Lot lots of things that is going to um cause the oil prices to make some pretty serious swings. And uh we're going to find out uh what's next. To me, I think playing the energy stocks now is a little bit better than playing oil itself. Uh there's there's a cleaner moves that are going to be able to be uh traded in the individual energy names. Um right now I took some profits on some of the oil contracts and uh and now it's just a matter of seeing whether the next leg happens or not. Do you know who should get you on their show? You you should go on Macro Voices and talk about oil. Funny. That's You're a comedian. I like it. No. Okay. I'm gonna pitch it. I'm gonna pitch Eric on it. I'm gonna say, "Hey, there's this guy who's a really good oil trader. You should get him on the show." Actually, if you if you do listen to the show at one point, you realize we do talk about oil on the show every week, but you know what? You know what? Like, you know, I don't listen. So, exactly. So, I was going to say, go ahead and make the pitch. I'm pretty sure Eric will uh All right. He'll be very He'll be very impressed with you that doing I'm sure he's he's congratulating you across the board as well. Okay, let's go to the next um whatever you wanted. Yeah, let's just talk but talk about this like do do you think okay right now the clearly the entire impact has been almost directly on oil and it's clear that oil moved on this okay but do the stock markets start to give a [ __ ] at some point okay so I my little bit of value had for this conversation today and it's going to be limited but I and I wrote about this earlier in the week I said and it was funny because I had started Ed writing the piece before the war or the escalation, whatever you want to call it. And then I was like, screw it. I'm not going to like not write it. I'm going to continue writing. And I published it. And I said, as difficult as this sounds, I think that the rest of June is going to be really boring. And the reason it's going to be really boring is that this amount of gamma out there in the in the stock market, meaning the market makers, the amount of gamma that they're long is just huge. It's also below the market, meaning that the strike is 5905. So even as we decline, they're getting longer gamma, which means that on the dips, they're getting longer and on the rifts are getting shorter. Like it's it's increasing. So my point is that you have that and then also Patrick you have this situation with the vault control funds and the vault control funds are backwardlooking um strategy and this gamma that is weighing on the market and keeping volatility low then makes it so realized is low which means that the vault control funds are buying more which just kind of has this whole way of keeping the market bid and boring. All right. Well, you know what? I first of all, I'm a 100% agreement. That was actually the second topic we were going to talk about was the gamma pinning because I wanted to talk about the this OPEX thing. But let's just uh let's just put it this way. Next week on Friday, so today we have the the June 20th uh opex, right? And so now uh we we're closing very close to 6,000, which is a logical thing because there's a very large amount of monthlies that expire at the nice round number of 6,000. Next week we're going to have the big JP Morgan whale that you specifically referencing with that huge 5900 strike, but that okay the 30th is on Monday on a European cash settle. So the fact is is that by ne by this at the end of next week the gamma pinning's over unless we're right at it that over the weekend. No, no, over the weekend. No, the point is is that we have only one more week of pinning. And so the thing is is that there's a chance that July is going to be moving and uh and you know Patrick is that the the vault control funds will continue to be bidding. They are still like only a third of the way into their buying all their stock. The VIX. Okay. So let's have a quick look though. This is the crazy part. The stock market is uh at um the stock market is at very close to its 52- week high. I mean 150 points off but it's it's up along the highs. Volatility has become narrow. The market has traded sideways for a week and a half now. Yet the VIX is above 20. It's not back at for 15 and 16 where it was uh trading just um that's the war premium. Okay. That's the war premium and it's also Patrick. That's fine. But when you're talking about these V control funds, we don't care about the VIX. V control funds is all is all realized V. It is not on implied. So we could have a situation where the volatility risk premium meaning the amount that the implied volatility trades over realized is huge and yet it'll still the vault control funds won't care about that. They only care about realized vault. There you go. Okay. I learned something. The uh No, no, it's I I uh I actually thought implied actually matter to them, but it does not matter. So what implied matter about is that is the VANA bid and offer in ter sorry the Vanna delta change. So when you get a decline in the in the implied based on the way that the the market makers are usually set up that causes more buying. So that is the van bid that you will often see. So a lot of times like going into a weekend you'll have two things happening. you'll have a charm bid because of the the the movement forward in time means that the market makers need to buy more and then also you'll often get as it rallies you'll get a decline in the implied and then that will also cause a VA bit. So you will have a Vanna and a charm bid on a lot of like slow long weekends or or weekends but um it doesn't necessarily need to be the vault controls completely separate. It's com and it's completely backwardlooking on historical, right? So here's my call, Kev. While I'm in complete agreement with you for the next one week, the vol the gamma pinning is going to be the strongest force in the market barring some surprise attack uh that throws the market a huge curveball that that kind of pushes the market out of the gravitational pull of this gamma pin. Yeah. But but beyond beyond that circumstance, next week is going to be quiet. But my call is July is gonna already wake up. It's gonna be spicy. It's gonna be spicy by July. I I think July and and maybe not uh the first week of July, but I think as we get into the July opex and all that big uh um amount of earnings that are coming out in July, I I honestly think that it's not going to be a quiet summer. I I I'm not going to push back on you, Patrick, because I also think that we're going to get finally the tariffs are going to start to kick in. you're going to start to see those things in terms of the numbers. I think there's a numerous things coming due and the complacency out there is huge. So, I'm not no push back from me, buddy. I I just think that maybe you're right. It's not going to be the first week of July, you know, because don't forget we have July 4th. We have a bunch of things in there. So, maybe it's like mid July. I don't know. But I hear you. Like, everyone thinks the summers always are boring. I remember lots of summers where crazy stuff happens because everyone's gone, right? Like everyone's gone. There gets to be some information, the market is set up in a weird way. Next thing you know, it's like trading all over the map. So, I'm not we're we're we're going to be almost three months of sustained rallying uh by the time we get to July, right? We're like 75 days into uh this current advance off of the market low. So, add another week or two of of market. We're 3 months into a market that's pushed 26 27% on the upside in a fluid motion. Long overdue for a correction. And it doesn't have to be uh the beginning of a next bare market. But I just volatility is going to be back. There's going to be some proper swing, something that's going to uh correct this market from this move. I'm I'm calling that. But let's Hey, well listen people, listen up. He called the oil. He's calling this long at your peril, you know. No, no, that's that's the opposite. Now, now you're [ __ ] gutchering it on me. I'm No, no, no. As long as you're not saying that. Are you okay? Are you gonna be short? Because if we're both short and we're talking this way, then then then it's not going to work. I'm almost always short. Okay. I'm not very tall. Like you doesn't have beside me. Like I'm not. So here you're such a wanker. Okay. So let's let's uh let's talk the last topic and then we'll go and do a bunch of these options. Sorry, the charts. Well, serious. Yeah, we're going to get serious here. Okay. Uh but uh what I want to though talk about is the Fed. Okay. So, so the FOMC uh once again uh gave the expectation they were doing nothing and they did nothing. So, we have it now a scenario where the market is pricing in I think two rate cuts this year. Uh at least that's the highest probability that we let's have a September and a December cut or something like this. And I think they're pricing right now like four cuts for uh combined uh for next year. So uh no sorry two this year two next year. So four combined altogether in the cycle. Um is the is this uh too uh optimistic in terms of hawkishness like I my spidey hawkishness or doubbishness? Well I think no I I think that the cuts are going to be deeper. I think that that like the market is not pricing enough of them. So, how would you alert that? What So, one second before we go any further, I just want to let everyone know that I had the a great macro tourist meet up and I promised a shout out to them and this is the perfect time to have the shout out. And I'm going to tell you why it's the perfect time. Patrick, when we're sitting there and I'm talking and everyone's all of a sudden starts talking about the 61s and they're like, "Are you long the 61s?" And I'm like, "What?" like and everyone's talking about the 61s and there's some bond that is um a a UK like a government bond that was issued in 2021 with like a like almost a zero coupon. Yeah. Like it was like 0.5 or 0.25 or maybe an eighth or something. I'm not really sure but super low coupon, right? Like dumb super low coupon. And now obviously with rates way up it's gone to like I don't know 40 cents on the dollar or some stupid number like that. But the thing is, Patrick, here they actually don't pay tax on that capital gain. Okay. Oh, wow. So, everyone I meet, it's long these bots. It is the craziest thing I've ever seen. And so, I So, we had a great meet out meet up. It was terrific. Thank you everyone for coming. I had an absolute blast. They were like just a terrific bunch of folks. Uh, we went out drinking, we had steaks. It was awesome. Just a terrific time. But then the next night, I'm at a more sophisticated um kind of institutional thing. And I'm like, "Okay, I'm going to see if these guys in my group are like telling the truth." And I'm going to be like, "All right, like, can you guys tell me about this 2061s or whatever?" And sure enough, everyone in London is long this thing. It is. Everyone is long. Everyone is bond trader. Everyone owns these things. And they're all sitting there. Patrick So, they're all bond traders and they're all kind of a little bit of a part of them is hoping rates go back down and they make all this money. Well, the thing is that's but that's a bet on the that's but listen that's that's actually the wrong part of the cur sorry the the duration that I want to talk about right no but at least Patrick is because you're not bullish enough buddy because you know you you should you used to love the long end because rates are going back to zero. I I actually uh don't hate the long bond, but that's not the conversation I want. Can I Can I interest you in some 2061s? Yes. And then the funniest part is there's one nice guy there who's a sellside trader, you know, and something else. He starts talking to us about, you know, you should really roll them down into the 201s, blah blah blah. They're like sitt like and you know what Patrick it's such a different environment because like in New York or Toronto we'd be talking stocks and instead everyone's talking bonds and they're all your peeps buddy. They're all long the bond because it's taxfree. So I was just I just wanted to put that out there. Thank you everyone for coming and I hope your 2061s work because it seems like all of London owns them. Well, somebody's got to own them, bud. Somebody's got to own them. I I'd love to I'd love to see who was the bag holder on the way down. But anyway, the uh so let's let's go talk the Fed. Let's go back to this thing. So Oh, yeah. So So wait and my view my view is this uh let me and then you can call [ __ ] on it and No, I'm probably not going to be what you think I'm going to be. But but my view right now is that it's incredibly asymmetric. And why do I say it's incredibly asymmetric is because uh I feel that the chances that the market is going to pull those four rate cuts out of the market is an outlier. Like I think that the there some what would have to happen for them to go that much more hawkish that they're pulling uh those rate cuts that are already priced in out of the market. It could happen, but I don't view it as a as a high risk. what I do of you really what you don't I think I think you're a little too casual about that risk but I'm not going to disagree with you I feel like the tales are extreme on either side but anyways go on I yeah and but my my second thing is is that you know the the Fed has historically uh always kept things too tight till something breaks. I remember that David Rosenberg chart that uh was all showing that through all the previous rate hike cycles, the Fed stays tight until some something breaks in the financial system than the plumbing and they're forced to cut more aggressively. And now all I'm just saying, the fact that they continue to delay the rate cut cycle increases the likelihood that something in the plumbing seizes. It doesn't have to be a great financial crisis, but I think that something in this system is going to crack and the Fed is going to have to be much more dovish than the is currently priced in. I think there could be at least a hundred more basis points put in on the rate cut cycle. And this is why I'm looking here on the chart on the sofur uh uh two December 2026s. I think I I don't see it as an unrealistic target for this thing to go 97 and a half to 98 uh uh on an upside move. And I don't see that much downside risk. I'm long this [ __ ] Okay, now tell me why I'm wrong. Well, no, I'm not gonna tell you. Well, I'll tell you why you're wrong. You You quoted a David Rosenberg chart to me, and you should know better than that. Okay. Like that. Jimmy with um I think you're underestimating the chance of inflation spiking and the Fed even though they don't um nobody will want them to and it'll be uh a whole shitow potentially, you know, at at the very least taking out all those cuts and potentially raising. I'm not saying that that's a high likelihood. I'm just saying that you have said there's no way that's happening and I'm gonna say there's a greater chance than you think. I just said outlier. That's an outlier. Okay. But it almost But what are you going to give it a quarter chance? Like 25%. What do you want to say? No, I'd say less than that. I would say less than that. So I'm not disagreeing with you, but but I could also see them just going leaving it here for a long time. But I will this is where I will get in in into your camp. And I I I recently from my weekly wrap-up, I clipped this uh Gunlock video and he started talking about how the market is increasingly starting to price the potential for a new Fed chair coming in and just slashing rates by 200 basis points. And so we might get a situation. I haven't done the work yet. It's my job when I come back to like figure this all out. But I suspect there's going to be some spreads in there that the smart guys are already trading. Um, and if Gunlock's talked about it, that means that even the non-smart guys have figured it out. And then there was me that's like even I have to wait for Gunlock to tell me. But anyways, my point is that I I I really do worry about a new Fed chair that just like lowers rates 200 basis points. And so when you said this thing where there's a chance that the Fed, you know, panics, I agree with you. There's a chance that the Fed panics because the economy goes down. I also think there's a chance the Fed panics, not panics, but gets super aggressive even without the economy going down in the period when Bernaki is replaced. Sorry. Yeah. This is what happens when you let me drink. Even in the period when Powell is replaced. So the market might start looking at this like because they're talking about putting in this uh shadow Fed share. So let's imagine they put in a shadow Fed share and he says things like okay rates are whatever they are now four and a quarter I like whatever if they if if it comes down to me I'm going to lower them to two right so all of a sudden Powell will be saying these things so Powell will be like no no we're leaving rates here the the balance it's balanced it's you know it's it's equal risk of up and down and then meanwhile the market might go and price in that like a year and a half from now or a year from now, whatever the period is, and I got to go figure it out. I think it's May next year. When is it like when is it that I don't know the date? I think it's May next year. So, all of a sudden, come June, there's like a 200 basis point cut in there. And I know that seems extreme, but like this is this is Trump. Don't don't don't discount anything. Yeah. And like there's already, you know, talk about who he's going to put in there and things like that. Lots of different names going around. A lot of people think it's Moran. Other people think it's War. There's some talk that it's going to be Zervos. But you know who my pick is? You tell me. The head of macro for Einhorn. This guy has been like, you know, saying how great Trump is all the time. I figure he's like a shoe in. There you go. I haven't followed that, but uh you got to follow it anyway. So, so to your point, I think that this this you're going to we're going to have to figure out which contract it is that's post the the the new Fed share and I think that that thing could get bid even higher. Like I think that this will be the thing to watch. I love it. I love it. I I uh think the market is underpricing that. All right. So, I hear have a chart on the long bond. So, let's talk about uh this is not the 61s, but uh but nonetheless is the US bond. But the thing is we came and retested technically this previous low right and uh while we still had a lower low back um on the on the bond here in 2023 that doesn't correspond with the five that the level on the yields itself. So let me actually just put put it up on the actual 30-year yield. And what we can observe is where we retested uh the previous all-time not alltime but multi-deade highs of interest rates uh up along that 5% yield up there. And here we are in a situation where you may have your perfect scenario where uh we may see the long bond actually uh break down as the yields break this level. And I don't think that there's enough people actually um talking about this outside of your little clique of bond haters. Um like you're like a bond hater club. Uh but beyond you guys, I don't hear anyone talking about this, but I think that if we had a breakout above this kind of 5510 level on the long bond, uh at some point it's going to become people are going to be like, "What the [ __ ] going on?" All right. like uh and and it could and it could actually u uh you know create a feedback loop of of negativity that is now very uh complacent. It's almost like oil was complacent before that move, right? Like it it it's it's a scenario where nobody's talking about this, but this long bond could rip or or or sell off, sorry, and the and the yields could rip. Um welcome to the dark side of the force. I am only observing technicals, Kevin. It's not I am not I'm not I am I don't I reject the the membership card for your Bonhater club. Like I I'm only I'm only looking at the squiggles, my friend. Well, that's fine. Welcome to the club. Even for the squiggle members have a special membership only when squiggles look bad. Yeah. Okay. I like it. Yeah. Listen, you know me. I've been in the Bond. I think that Yeah. If if you if if they had gone ahead and tried to like make a deficit of 3% of GDP and they were they were having the deficit uh then I might be in the bond like bull camp or at the very least I would put aside my membership and put it on hold like make myself an out of town member. Um but in the meantime it's like they're actually going the opposite way. Like this is going from six to maybe seven or eight. Who knows? like they keep spending the rest of the world's spending. There's a lot of chance for a real big problem. The the to me I like I I try to be impartial towards US politics. I'm not an American so I don't get involved that way, but I I really thought when they were coming in with Doge that they were really trying to uh to bring down that fiscal spending and rein everything in and that big beautiful bill just uh demonstrates the complete opposite. And um and so, you know, once once that kind of came out, then it's like I I immediately was like, "No, you can't you can't use that playbook that they're going to uh they're going to bring it down." And it's um and so to me, this is still very much a maybe this is what's going to happen. That has to break the big beautiful bill. It has to be the interest rate markets and bond vigilantes basically saying, "You guys got to slow down." So, but what but why do they It's beautiful. Why? Like, we don't want that. It's a beautiful house. It's beautiful. It's big and it's beautiful. It's beautiful. Yeah. All right. Let's talk uh let's talk the currency. So, uh the US dollar index did temporarily make a lower low. Uh and I want to briefly kind of dissect where this is coming from. Uh because it really is driven right now by the euro currencies. The the euro and the and the pound have been making higher highs. So, the euro bros slightly higher high. a little flagging formation for bull continuation that pound sterling broke to a higher high recent few days had a little bit of a pullback but they're very much trending but this is not um uh the correspondent with all the currencies in the basket like for instance that US dollar yen has been uh actually not only quite rangebound but it's been quietly creeping uh a little bit higher now I'm not trying to make a bull call here on the US yen, but rather to observe that this isn't a US dollar route anymore where suddenly, you know, this uh you know, US dollar down and all other cross currencies up. You you've got actually a bit of a mixed bag. And and I I continue to be in the camp that I think it's far more likely that the dollar is going to be far more rangebound. But this is such an important moment because uh if I'm gonna have if my rangebound thesis is there, like it can't break to lower lows and just keep going, right? Like this is like a make it or break it moment on on whether or not the US dollar is heading to the 95 handle or lower. Uh, I still think this bounce might stick, but I'm not bullish the dollar because of it. I think we might get up to like 101, 102, retest that May high and then and be far more sideways uh rangebound. I'm not su super excited about a short-term currency move. The next time I think there'll be a big currency move, it's going to be when the whole uh intermarkets uh start buzzing again, like when the stock market starts moving, where everything goes maybe, you know, mid to late July or something. But on the short term, I'm kind of neutral here. Do you have any convictions on your currency plays here? Do I have any convictions? No. Like especially over the over the short run, I think I agree with you. And in fact, you could maybe make the argument that there's too many people short and that it's due for a squeeze. Um, having said that longer term, I'm actually more convinced it has to go a lot lower. But um that's always right. It's trading tra trading versus long-term positioning. Right. Right. I'm still putting together my currency kind of thoughts because I must say here in London they really talk a lot of currency. So I've had a lot of things coming at me. But I will agree that there is a lot of folks that from a trading and short-term perspective seem to be short the currency. and night. And I do worry that we'll get us that we'll get a exactly what you're talking about. You know, a rally that gets people kind of bowled up and then you spend your summer chopping around it and does go goes nowhere and then it's actually in the fall that it goes down. I like I I won't I won't dismiss that at all, Patrick. Yeah. And that's uh that's the camp I'm in on that front. Um the um the next thing I want to talk about is uh is the precious metal. And so gold went um for that double top retest of its previous high. Few days of giving some back, but by no means a violation of the primary uptrend. It's above all its moving averages. It's still um uh making higher highs and higher lows. So this is uh just the gold market hitting resistance and and pausing. So I'm I'm not in any way trying to pivot, but it is um testing a major high. I mean, if there was ever such a thing as it forming a double top, it has to be off of a retest of its previous high. And so, there's always a possibility that this begins a little bit of selling, but I'm just not in that camp. Things just look uh like the momentum is just building in precious metals, particularly in the secondary markets like the silver, platinum, and platium just picking up steam. Uh I I I still think that gold makes the breakout here and I don't see any reason why we can't see a 36 or 3700 gold uh this summer like just a a continuation of this on the upside where I will uh immediately take back that and admit that something different is happening is if the 3,300 level gives out um that so right now long as this dip is held above 3,300 I'm looking for those upper targets. You still bullish gold? Still bullish. Um I think if you didn't know what this chart was and someone put this in front of you, you'd have to say you you should buy it. In my in my limited squiggle uh analysis capabilities, that's how I view that. All right. I like it. Your limited skills are confirming now. But the uh but let's look at the other precious metals. So silver uh had a this kind of like $1 down day here. Uh but that was after an extended move higher. And so after we've seen that move, we're now due for some sort of retracement. Look at this. Like the a 50% retracement lines up perfectly with the 50-day moving average, which is basically a pullback that could go to like the $34 to $35 area. Uh at this moment, old dip should be bought. This was a legitimate bull breakout. Silver went a little hot and pullbacks happen all the time. Buying the bull back is the only logical thing at this stage. It could still drop another dollar, but uh it should be bought on dip is my current positioning on that. Um any comment or you want to keep going? No comment. Just keep going. All right. So the the next thing just let's look at that platinum and platium. Now um platinum uh what an epic run. I'm going to put this just on a weekly chart so we can really put into context just the magnitude of this rise like uh for for three years uh uh platinum has basically traded in like a 200 point trade range uh from let's say uh uh 900 to 1100 was this like three-year trade range here we ripped basically 400 points uh in in literally less than two months uh from from trough to peak uh and we haven't seen this kind of action in in uh platinum since uh the 2020 move and so it it's really woken up. Obviously these things can retrace at some point there'll be little dips like silver coming down. You can see today it's down a little bit but uh with this kind of momentum these this feels almost bubbish like like a dip here could be bought and this thing could rip to 1500 or 1700. it it really um has uh picked up some traction and I don't want to fade this too early. I think this this is a momentum play. Any any uh anything to add? I know I got nothing to add except that the best markets never let you in and I'm really wondering if that's what it'll be with platinum. There you go. Now, the one that's lagging that is really interesting to me is Platium, though. Like look at um it broke its basic uh one-year trade range. So, it was stuck in this trade range essentially uh for since uh November of last year. So, let's call it like a 9-month trade range or something. So, we broke to a higher high above the moving averages. This dip is holding the fibbr retracement zones. This looks like a bull continuation pattern. Uh I think that we could have a run to 12,300. It's been the lagard in the precious metals, but it's a bullish chart that looks like it's ready to go. Okay, it could be. I I kind of look at that and go, "Oh, I I don't need to play. I'd rather own the the one that's leading." All right. Well, I mean, that's just that's a trading position. You do you play momentum or do you play the lagard catching up? That's always like the big trading debate. Yeah. When amongst everything, right? Like which which angle do you take there? Um but anyway, I think that this is a lots of room to to get going. The other thing I wanted to to um we already talked oil so I want to talk about um uranium. Now uh let's first start by talking about uranium stocks. I'm just going to use the URA because like what a drop and pop like we went through this like six, seven month or even longer bare market where where we uh saw saw these things lose 30 40% of their value and then just this extraordinary rip 100% move in in less than three months. It's it's insane how much uranium stocks the story got hot. But what was interesting I want what I want to first of all you you it's hard to buy it once it's already doubled. Uh, I still feel like you need to at this point switch to you either have to put on trades using some sort of option strategy that builds the asymmetry in this in let's say a a bull call spread or some other form where where you can actually have a a definable risk because where the freak would you put your stop losses when you're buying this thing? uh you know like it's it's it's a it's it's kind of tough to to to to size the risk when there's the this big of a move. Uh but nonetheless, I I need personally need a pullback to buy more at any stage here. The um but what I wanted to just highlight though was that the U308 uh uranium was dragging its heels, right? And it it's uh the e the uranium equities went on this huge bull run and spot prices uranium didn't move until last week when we uh or earlier this week when we got this uh this $5 jump in the U308 to 75 bucks and suddenly spot prices of uranium have woken up. Now, everyone keeps making fun of this as the hedge fund hotel, but I think after a 15month uh decline, I think the hedge funds have uh actually all vacated that hotel um pretty thoroughly. Uh so the question is is that is uh is this um the beginning of a bull run in uh in spot uranium? Um, so I guess I'm going to disagree with you that they the hedge funds have checked out of the hotel. So that's they haven't checked out. They're still in that hotel. Um, having said that, it's a small market and spot was actually trading lower than it should be. Like I remember, didn't I, didn't we talk about the uranium whisperer? Did I talk about this here? Yeah. Um and he was talking about how term was uh you know trading much higher and that the spot was actually the problem. So what I think is happening here is that spot had a little bit of overhang and there was still too many people in the in the uh in that hotel. And it's not just like the U.un by the way or the spot. It's there's YCA and then there's even hedge fund guys that own the somehow they own uranium in the spot market which makes no sense to me. I don't understand how they do it, but I do know that there's people that are capable of of of warehousing uranium and they're doing that as a way to play it. Um, so what I think happened here, Patrick, was that some guys got together and go, "Oh, you know what? Spot's trading too much low, too much, too low. Have a look at the stocks. The stocks there's all this bull market and in the stocks there's a bull market in the term. So, let's buy some of the um spot." It actually went up. They pushed the SBUT or the U.UN to a even uh meaning that it was used to be at a discount. They pushed it to even at that point. They then went and did a $200 million bot deal. Uh that bot deal was actually supposed to be 100 million at the first, you know, when it was upsized to 200. And that 200 million had to get uh resulted in 200 million spot being bought. And it's in essence cleaned up the market. and uh friend of the show, you know, one of our guys is that we talked to on the on the rag, he was, you know, foaming at the mouse saying when they did this uh new issue, he said that it's going to clean up spot and head higher. Um I don't know. I haven't been following it that closely. I'm still a little worried though. It still feels like a hedge fund hotel to me. I I guess that's the only part that I'll push back on is that uh I could see this U.UN you end going right back to a 10 20% discount. This I get. Sorry. Go ahead. The discount is for sure. Like let's be that's just a closed end fund thing, right? The No, but it's even now. So you're paying even. Fair. Fair. Like so you I so but the point here is is that uh that even if let's say um that we see a drag in the the um U.U UN versus that of spot won't change the fact that spot prices may in fact be starting a new trend. Uh and um and so you know the we might just see a drag on performance on the one versus the other. But I but the question in the bigger picture is is that did uranium start now finally a new bull trend after spending 15 16 months in a very distinct bare market decline and um and is it the start because listen if something can be in a bare market for 15 months it could be in a bull market for two years right if this is so you're you're just kind of stepping back and going this thing's been going down for a couple years is it finally over I I will agree with you there I don't know though if it's um I don't know if this is the spot to buy it. I I I suspect you'll get a better chance to buy it this summer. That that's my gut, but maybe I'm wrong. You know what? Buy on dips is always something I welcome. Like uh it's but I feel though that if we can um if it's about the confidence level of whether or not that April low was the low, right? like if you're buying dips versus rips is just being tactical about entries, which is the really uh uh you know u just you being a trader. The um the one thing that I want to just wrap up here, let's uh I want to just go through some of these global indices uh and particularly what I wanted to highlight. Okay, so Nikk broke to a higher high seems to be trending uh all right approaching some very key overhead resistance levels where put in its highs in two late 2024 25 maybe a formidable uh overhead resistance but we had the go going back the S&P 500 was just very heavy toppy almost rolling over a little bit but what was interesting is the euro stock on the other hand for the last two weeks has actually been selling we got a closed below its 50-day moving average. Actually, a week of trading now below its 50-day moving average. And so, it's certainly fading much quicker uh than both the NIK and the S&P 500. Uh and I wasn't necessarily even expecting this and I'm just observing. I don't even know if I have a strong conviction on actually what it means, but but there's definitely been some uh more active distribution in Europe and I'm curious whether this is going to continue. Uh any thoughts or anything that you want? You know what? I don't have any view except that it is um summer and the Europeans go home like it's could be like slow. Um and you know there probably is a little bit of disappointment that the the fiscal stimulus isn't coming as fast as everyone hoped and so it's a little bit of selling it. I think like again once again I will say that I I think I'm a I'm a long-term bull on the rest of the world including Europe. Um, but I I think that you could see a summer of uh down markets and so I'm here. Yeah. And like and what I like about you, Patrick, is that you're like you're not letting fundamentals get in the way. You're saying look chart like what's your technical term? Looks like [ __ ] Um, it does. It really does. It's like it's hard to get excited about that chart. Well, I mean, look, it was exciting for the rip higher. I mean, there was some great money made, but like why is it a relative underperformers? Right. That's what I'm saying. Like Yeah. Yeah. I don't think yeah I don't know except that it's it's getting sold and that's maybe all that you should do is observe that and say someone knows more. All right so I want to talk about three more charts and then we're done. Okay. All right. So so here it is. Number one the sunsex. So when we're talking India it's been trading sideways for a month after a nice rip. This looks like a bull continuation pattern. If this thing breaks to a a higher high from its May high, uh that may open up that move to to run back to the um September October high that put in uh up near 86 87,000. So I'm looking to see whether or not India has a continuation on the upside. Um the other one I wanted to just highlight was the uh in Brazil the um IO Visa uh this flagging formation is attempting a bull breakout. It's that it's not yet broken to a higher high, but this is how they start. If this also breaks out, we might have a bull continuation pattern in there as well. So, you know, and and the last one is just broadly looking at the uh the emerging market. So, rather than picking cherry-picking, this is just the EM. And it's been pulling back for the last little bit, but it's been one of the hottest markets. And the thing that I'm watching here is that this pullback that we've gotten here has been in the past the type of pullback that almost immediately got bought on dip. So it'll be very interesting to see whether the buy on dip traders show up after in these four five down days that we've seen here. Is the are we going to see the typical buy on dip response or is uh or is this going to be one of those things where they don't show up and this turns into a deeper pullback. I I always give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. So, this is a very interesting buy on dip level that we'll be seeing whether or not uh it gets bought on here. Any comment on these emerging markets that talked about? Uh I love this last chart and I I will very definitely be in the camp that says that that dip will get bought and that will stay above the 50-day moving average and that that is something you want to continue. How much do you buy X uh China or or this EM where that includes China? I have no problem with China from a from a a financial point of view. Okay. So, I like I you know like I like Yeah. Do I am I am I excited about uh about them about what they're doing? But there's lots of country on so I'm excited about what they're doing. How about uh how about um from the natural intermarket relationship perspective? Do uh do you have uh any concerns that if we have a very short-term dollar rip that this could drag on these or do you think that these can just keep going even if there is some short-term dollar strength? I think the short-term dollar strength will hurt them, but I don't think that it'll hurt them enough that you should not buy them. Okay. I think any short I think any dollar strength will be limited in its scope and very quickly sold. So, I I would just I would use that as just a chance to buy more. That's kind of my gut. That's all I've got, Kev. You know, I think this is a good a good place for you to get back into the pubs and and go for another round. Okay. By the way, I What is with this Patrick? Like I'm drinking a Diet Coke and the thing caps don't come off. That's a European thing. They spent a lot of money creating the caps don't fall off everywhere. Annoying. So what is the point of it? So it's not killing some seagull. Yes, exactly. So it's like uh it's so that there isn't the the polluted caps everywhere. I'm glad I didn't kill a seagull, but it sure is a pain to drink. Okay, thank you everyone for tuning in. We appreciate it. Um Patrick, where can they find you? You can find me at bigpicturerttrading.com and Kev, where can they find you? Then go to macrotours.com and listen, bare market, bull market. We're just happy for everyone to spend some time together on this crazy ride. Stick around for the after show. All right. Well, uh, Danny's got to get on here. And, uh, so Danny, what beer did you end up drinking? Oops. Oh, what was it? Uh, do you know what? I I went for something that is probably going to shock all of you. I went for a laga chandi. Do you know what that is? What? No, I don't. Yeah. Sure. That looks like you put fruit in there. No fruit. No, no, no. You have You have So, instead of a pint, you do a half a pint of beer and then you top it with lemonade. So, it's like a spritz. It's like beer spritz. Okay, that's soft. There's You know what? Why would you Why would you destroy that delicious taste of the beer by putting lemonade? This is lemon. This is an awful idea. You dilute it so that you don't get drunk and then you uh and you uh ruin the taste of the beer. You you you're voted out of the the show. You're out. Anybody come on. So Danny, tell let's let's hear this. Rate one out of 10 on your chi uh whatever you call this thing. How would you rate the deliciousness of this this concoction that you made? Yeah. Well, for me actually, I think it was incredibly refreshing. So, I give it a seven out of 10 to be honest. Oh my god. And see, you get amateur score. Don't even give it a When the wives have their morning breakfast with the stuff, we'll send Danny Danny to like, you know, make chambies for them. Mimosas. That's what they call. That's mimosas. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, Patrick, what is yours? No, it's the Mil Street organic lagger. Uh, it's it's not super clean drinking logger. Uh, in the in the scope of loggers, uh, I like this. It's like a 7.5. It's a solid solid. You know what? It's nice, clean, light. It's It's a perfect summer beer. So, we were talking, Daniel and I were talking before and he was mentioning how it's so hot in London and people are losing their minds. But little does he know that tomorrow in Toronto it's getting stupid hot. Yes. Like, it's stupid hot. Like, and you know what? I came from Italy where it was 34 degrees. Oh, so it's your was ridiculous. It's uh and so like I just like it follows me around like I can't get a break. That's the That's your problem. Like you brought it with you. Let me see what the Yeah, it's it's it's it's pretty bad, man. Like it's not like Portugal is dry whereas here it's very humid. So it's Sunday Sunday's 33. Tomorrow's only 27. So I'll still be all right tomorrow. I'll be on a plane before this [ __ ] hits. Back to 40 degrees in Portugal. Perfect. Yeah, something like that. Yeah, it's a dry heat. It's okay. Yeah. Um, so how have things been? Like, uh, how's the in the old hood, Patrick? Oh, it's nice. You know what? Yeah. Uh, the kids, the original Rum Shack, the the It's all It's awesome. It's awesome. The original Rum Shack. Everything's good. You're there. Like, someone still has that house. One of one of my uh uh No, it was the rum shack was moved to uh to one of the other guys. Oh, you guys moved. The leg Exactly. The legacy continues, my friend. Oh, but uh one of my uh I flew in one of my uh good buddies is uh turning 50 years old. Uh one of my best friends. And so uh had to come into for the celebration. It's going to I'm going to get plastered tomorrow for sure. Speaking of getting plastered, everyone that I met in London, not everyone, but a lot of them loved your 12 pubs of Christmas, uh, they want to join you. Oh, really? And it is something they do in England. Of course, that's where it originated from actually. I confirmed that. I confirmed that. I'm just saying that I confirmed it wasn't made up in your own mind. This is actually something that exists. I thought it might have been something you guys just But you know what? I I'd love to, you know, Danny went through uh a bunch of those rules that there's like these different rules you could make uh at each pub. Uh and I think that the next level is to for us to introduce some rules cuz we just we just only rule you had to finish one pint in the 30 minutes that you're there. Like that's that was the only rule we had to just go the distance. But do you not do you not realize that there's an entire film made about this? No. What? It's called It's called World's End. What? Exactly. Jinx. World's End. World's End. It's It's an actual film that was made about this. It's a comedy. Okay. All right. Well, uh I now know I need to watch. Guess Simon Peg made it. I think it's Oh my gosh. This is awesome. Exactly. Some night nighttime viewing for you. This is download and watch it on the plane. Yeah. Yeah, you should. You should. It's B. World's End is basically the last pub that they need to get to. That's awesome. 12. Patrick, this is like nap. I love it. I love it. There you go. No, but now you know what the Now the hardcore thing is to grab the boys and come to London for Christmas and do it in London. But the or You should. I'm telling you, they would love it. You would have a crew like you've never seen before. I I think this is a great idea because the if there's any one place they would appreciate what we do, it's London. That's true. That's true. It's like That's true. You should do it, Patrick. I think you're on the hook. You just said it. No, I'll tell you. No, I'll tell you. Like, for instance, if I did a 12 pubs in Lisbon, it just wouldn't be appreciated. Like, it's it's uh you get like three you get like three English guys with you. Meanwhile, if you do it in London, there'd be like a you know, 250 of you like Mark like taking over pubs, you'd actually you'd have to actually I bet you that if you did this properly, you would have to limit it because you guys would take over pubs and it wouldn't be doable. Oh, that is always the problem. Like uh I have I had my good buddy Bull that uh was the one that was doing it in Chelsea out there in in uh in London and uh their crew was something like 60 70 people and they would just go to the one bar uh for for a pint and like literally they would walk in and they could they couldn't even fit in like the and the waitresses are like uh just going insane like you have to pretty much almost pre-order the beers so that there's the table outside with with all of the pints already listed and prepaid for and they're just You know what you should get? You should get your the your assistant there, Patrick, to go ahead and pre-order them. That's genius. They're just running ahead and like ordering 60 beers so that you guys get there and they're just waiting and everyone just grabs one. Genius. It is. Listen, I'm in. Yeah, of course you're in. You're English. Yeah. All right. Well, listen, Kevin, you got to we'll let you go, but you got to you got to have some fun out there. Say hi to all those uh uh huddlers out there. Yeah. No, it's been an absolute great time and I've actually really appreciate it and everyone's been so kind and it's terrific place and I'll definitely be coming back. All right, we'll see you guys later. Yeah, cheers. We'll we'll be back in a couple weeks. Thanks everyone. Take care.