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With coal stocks moving strongly of their lows of 2025 and the funding landscape being flipped on its head, we called upon the …

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It’s interesting. Well, somebody’s going to have to come in and take the Anglo assets. I’m not sure who is going to be the best candidate for that. Uh, you know, I would have said BHP a while ago. You know, now that Anglo is sort of, you know, engaged. I’m not sure what that’s going to look like on down the road. >> For all the money miners who are are not acquainted with you yet, um, Matt Water, you are you’re our go-to coal man. You’re the world’s go-to coal man. Everything coal, met thermal. We um we just ask Matt and I’ve noticed you throwing around this um this this theme you’re toying with that 2026 is the the year of the great accumulation. Uh what do you mean by that? >> Well, uh you know, I had thought that 2026 initially was going to be the year where everything really pulled back. Um, hearkening back to my days at Woodmak, we saw kind of peak Chinese steel production in 2024, which uh is pretty close to what happened in reality for a 10-year forecast. That’s not bad. Uh, and usually what happens is, you know, cycle lasts about 5 years. This one started for real in 2021. So, you know, if past prologue, uh, as Rick Rule would say, uh, that would mean that, you know, 2026 would have been the year for, uh, to kind of withstand all that. But instead, the the the China property debacle uh and just a real downfall in demand there pulled all of that forward into 2025. And so instead of getting a summer recovery, we got a big fat nothing. Uh and uh prices bottomed out. Uh but since then, we’ve had uh lower production than expected. Uh we just had a cyclone on the MET side. Uh we’ve had a cold winter. Things have improved on the thermal side. And we’ve tested what I think is really uh you know the cost floor for for each of those individual sectors. Uh and I might add we’ve tested it successfully. There have been a kind of a bare minimum of of you know bankruptcies you know companies going into receiverhip. Uh there surprisingly there’s been a bare minimum of of uh mine idlings too. So I I think you know we can we can look back through the last year and say pretty firmly that you know the coal industry really is on on pretty good footing compared to the before times. >> Well as as 10year forecasts go that’s that’s quite the pick Matt but one thing I’m curious to hear whether you kind of had in in your bingo cards is some of the takeover battles and kind of tussles we’ve had for some of the major steel producers. So, US Steel played out last year and we’re in the midst of one here in Australia with with Blue Scope Steel and that adds such a fascinating geopolitical kind of lens to this whole flushed steel market globally, doesn’t it? >> Yeah. And, you know, my track record of predicting geopolitical outcomes like that, you know, is is far from successful. So, um, you know, I don’t always know how those things are going to work out, but it made sense, at least from the from the US standpoint, that, uh, we had a company with a much better balance sheet come in to shepherd these assets going forward. Um, I haven’t followed Blue Scope particularly closely, just because, you know, for me down under, I tend to be a consumer of data rather than a generator of it. Uh, but I’m interested to see uh, what happens there. for for the US that made a lot of sense and I was glad to see the deal go through with NPON uh despite both uh President Biden and President Trump having their misgivings about it. Um you know my my sense of it was that any concern about the union side of it was really overblown. Uh you know the the plans were were in place for a long time uh to build uh you know Big River Steel 2. Um and now we have a better balance sheet to do that with. I think that’s good for for the workforce. Not bad. Um, but as for uh as for Blue Scope, uh, I don’t really know. Honestly, I was going to ask you guys about that uh while we were having this discussion because you guys can probably provide the type of context that we’d need to sort of think about in order to uh figure out long-term positioning there. I think it’s I think it’s like yeah these these really ordinary businesses uh for for many reasons uh but because because assets in in you know strategic western countries with enormous replacement value that can can can provide enormous strategic value we’re in the era of strategic value is real value and um and hence the evolving evolving kind of you know corporate corporate outcomes for these businesses >> and we’ve seen the signs that the governments are going to support these you know we’ve seen about every smell melt backed up by the government here as well. So, you know, you’ve got the government in your in your corner in the west as well. >> A huge ad to that >> if if we >> Yeah, I’ve been writing about that more on the on the rare earth side than than on steel in particular. But, uh just looking at the Trump administration’s willingness to take a a golden share in, you know, those US steel operations. Uh governments are opening up pocketbooks to our corner of the market and that hasn’t really happened in uh ever to my knowledge. Yeah. >> Well, if we if we flip the conversation to energy generation, that’s a huge part of of what you’ve kind of been speaking about with thermal coal dynamics, AI, and and all of these kind of things. And the um the rhetoric has kind of changed there a bit as well. We saw just in the past week a a very important power plant in New South Wales extended again, another another two years of life added to it. And this is something you’ve been speaking about in in the States as well. you know, no longer switching the the coal power stations off, but maintaining them. You know, I don’t think we’re at the point where we’re talking about building new coal power plants, but how is that narrative playing out right now, Matt? >> It’s playing out exactly like that. Uh, now there there will be uh there was one closure here that has resulted in um uh Alliance Resource Limited Partners taking off their Matiki mine, which had a 1 million toner customer. Uh that plant’s going to have, you know, continued shutdowns and operations. So, uh, there there are still retirements happening, but, uh, most are trying to be prolonged, uh, for as long as they can. Um, I I don’t know if I’ve said that on here before, but, I I bet we get maybe one new coal plant built in the US, uh, over the next 10 years. I would venture to guess it’s probably in Wyoming, uh, where that would make better sense to pair with hyperscalers, uh, and and a government willing to sort of, uh, you know, go go along with that. Um but uh but yeah, to your point, I think everywhere else it’s just keep them on for as long as you can until uh small modular reactors get here sometime in the next decade. Uh other than that, you’re just building gas plants as best as you can. Um and I think you’ll see a lot of behind the meter uh you know, solar and some other um uh installations as well. I mean, for for hyperscalers, it’s all of the above and then some. Uh so they’ll they’ll take whatever power they can get um almost at whatever price they can get it uh until we wind up at the point where they’re building just faster than uh power capacity demand can uh can keep up with it. >> I mean these these hyperscalers they they need almost infinite compute and you know you’ve got this collision of of exponential compute growth with with what is clearly the ability to provide a linear energy capacity at best and and an old system. Um it’s a it’s a strange confluence of circumstances that we’re contending with at a time when you know energy constraints have never been more stark and yet and yet like you talk about thermal coal coal markets energy markets broadly have been like in a bottoming range. Strange. >> Yeah. So it’s you know shudder to think what energy costs will be like at the at the peak of this next cycle. Um, but with regard to with regard to compute, I mean, there there’s nothing that’s going to stop a hyperscaler from building out compute capacity, right? But, uh, if the energy grid can’t keep up with it, then all you get basically are increasing prices and that without additional capacity, whatever additional compute you build just lays dormant and it doesn’t get used. So, you know, the the energy constraint is the functional capacity for, you know, the for AI rate of change development just in general. And that’s going to be true whether we’re talking uh you know, the United States or Europe or China uh or, you know, the Southeast Asia and other places. Uh that’s that’s a limiting factor everywhere and it’s it’s contingent upon, you know, a country being able to supply and feed that beast um as much as it can. China’s obviously better positioned than most to be able to uh to to weather that storm, but even they have fuel constraints as well. >> Can can you wrap some numbers around it for us, Matt, just to hammer home the the point? Like what what has the the growth rate of of electricity demand been to date? Fairly flat as I understand it. And and what are we kind of looking at this this step change being? >> Uh it’s it’s relatively flat. I mean, I think if you go back and look at we’re we’re moving from a completely flat environment as far as power demand growth in the United States to, you know, maybe 1 2% per year, which is still pretty flat, mind you. Um, but when you when you take a look at the for me, the the where the place where you could actually see it play out is in power prices. Um, and power prices are incredibly volatile. But if you take, you know, a a moving average, uh, and you look at it over time, well, since 2021, since this buildout really began, power prices had just moved steadily up and to the right at like a 10 or a 15 degree angle. Um, and I I don’t think there’s, you know, there there’s capacity to absorb a hockey stick in the short term, like we just had, uh, you know, a massive winter storm uh, plow through the US and then a follow-up one on the back of it. uh we had some freeze offs and natural gas but for the most part um it seemed like uh the utilities were were prepared for it to some degree. Um you know the but the the ability to absorb a sustained uh spike over time I think is eventually would impact the hyperscalers as well. So um you know in that in that sense you know can I quantify it uh in terms of demand? I I think we’ll just have a you know one 2% power demand growth until uh price begins to get in the way. When that is I I don’t know that’s a function of capital access rather than uh you know the energy grid here at this point in time. Uh right now the grid is you get what you get and you don’t get upset uh more so than anything else. >> One one of the one of these um one of the realities of the buildout that that the data centers required is they’re also very like aluminium intensive. They need a bunch a bunch of extra aluminium and then building out the aluminium smelter capacity. Well, aluminium smelters are incredibly energy intensive themselves. So, there’s like, you know, an an extra layer of energy intensity required to service the data centers from from new aluminium demand growth that that comes out. And and aluminium is an interesting one because where where there is a lot of like capacity build out in the aluminium sector it is in Indonesia right now and in Indonesia incredibly topical for the seaborn thermal market this week as like there’s there’s news out that they’re reducing supply quotas by like 40 to 70% on 2025 levels. Is that like a is that right? And b like surely this has an enormous impact on on thermal seaborn markets. >> Yeah. We uh so my partner Joe Alena and I actually just did a podcast talking about this exact thing. And uh one of the things we highlighted was and I asked about I was at Woodmac at the last time this happened which was back in 2021 uh on a on a temporary uh visit to my old stomping grounds. And the the net result is these are headline numbers, the 40 to 70%. We’re not going to decrease production by 40 to 70%. It’s uh you know it’s a stick uh that’s meant to get people to reduce production. So you’ll start to see some mines come off. You’ll start to see some supply rationale, but it’s not going to get to 40%. It’ll get to you know uh you know few million tons, 100 million tons or something like that. Uh and then it’ll start to to taper off. And that’s that’s okay. I mean you can pull that much out of the market. That helps uh that helps the you know the other suppliers into the basin. will help uh you know Newcastle 5500 uh kind of get off the schneide as well. It’s been you know languishing down here uh much to Yan Cole Shagran. Think about how how uh how big a price Yanle share would be uh share price Yanco would have if uh if we could actually get 5500 moving. So yeah, you know, I I don’t really look at the at the headline numbers so much as I look at it as uh just a geopolitical way to get supply ration to some degree to support uh you know, kind of broader markets. And uh and I think we need that. I mean, we got a nice little jump in um uh Newcastle prices here this week, like about a $5 jump or so up at 116. Uh but that’s been the first kind of like uh bullish feeling. uh have had in the thermal coal world for a while, you know, >> at the margin. This is yeah, incredibly constructive though, like >> Yeah. Um c >> can you speak to the the demand side? We we touched on it in in the States and North America there, but how is Asian demand kind of looking? There’s been so much made of of China’s buildout of of EVs and and we kind of know where a lot of the power of that needs to to kind of come from. So, what’s the narrative there looking like at the moment? >> Um asking the wrong guy here at this point in time. That’s more of a question for my partner. We’ve kind of bifrocated into thermal and met coal markets. I’ll be sure and have him on the next time. Uh >> yeah, >> as far as as far as I know, um you know, I think that the price has kind of spoken for itself with regard to uh demand. We we have we have plenty of supply to support uh any demand increases that’s out there here at the moment. Um but uh you know even just the JKM price going up uh from uh you know I want to say what is this 1562 to 1798. I mean we had a you know 10 year a 20% move uh up and that’s really supported uh you know Newcastle prices here. when when those sorts of things happen and you see Newcastle that responsive that quickly that that means that behind the the scenes there is uh tighter availability for those types of coals than you think there are. So I don’t think it’ll take much in terms of either incremental supply rationalization or incremental demand increases to uh to get thermal coal moving again. I’m not sure we’re going to see the blowoff tops like we’ve seen in the past, but um you know the uh in the before times what was the typically the highs of a cycle are now the lows. Uh and then you know we could probably see $200 Newcastle again you know within three to four years assuming that uh you know demand continues continues on at the pace that it’s it’s currently on. on the um yeah the the China side of things maybe even from from like a a MET perspective like the thing that I guess like really took the wind out of um out of out of coal in 23 24 was the the the ability for China to to source a lot of its you know co coal demand from from increased production from from Mongolia which was um yeah cut off and then and subsequently kind of you ramped pretty hard. What are those dynamics like for for Mongolian coal into China now? Is it still still ramping strong? Uh any any changes there? >> Uh as far as volumes go, I think we’ve kind of hit the the wall of where volumes are going to be. I mean, you can uh to have any additional uh imports, you’ll actually need to build out uh uh transport capacity. So as soon as you see those capital uh allocations get uh get completed then then there will be an incremental uptick. But what China’s done on the metco side uh is they’ve they’ve done uh they’ve increased domestic production, >> right? >> Uh they were they were down in last year uh I want to say maybe 15% on the med side for for key components uh which uh kept their reliance on the seaborn market but as soon as that began to go in the other direction uh that’s what really coincided with the bottom falling out of net prices and those sorts of things. And now um like this quarter, China hasn’t been setting the price at all. There’s not really much urgency for them to go into the market to pick up premium lowval tons. Um kind of what they’ve been doing is they’re relying on domestic production. Uh they’re supplementing that with, you know, the maximum amount of tons they can import from Mongolia and Russia. And then they’re going out to the market for uh you know, a few million tons a month of coals with strength contributing property. Uh so going to Canada for uh for good premium midvolatile coal. They’re going to Australia for mostly for premium midvol something they can get kind of offsp spec second tier hard coing coal. Um like that’s kind of what China’s been in the market for. So the driver of this metco run up to 250 250 bucks plus in the physical market has been India. So India’s really showed up in a big way. Uh and if you look at their steel prices their steel prices have come up commensurately with coke and coal prices. So, the more uh room that their domestic market gives them, uh the more resilient that that PLV prices are going to be. Uh it’s been good to see. We’ve been talking about it for a couple of years, but it’s nice to see it play out that way. For once, >> those those global steel cycles really um yeah, like really really map out a lot of this demand, right? and and and India is at a much earlier like yeah like he’s is at an early stage in that steel cycle that China would have experienced many many you know many years ago now. >> Yeah. I mean they’re they’re kind of taking the reigns from where China left off. So we’re going to see China contract relatively slowly uh you know turn inward for their supply much like they’ve been but India can really ramp up uh through the end of the decade. I forget how much um uh incremental steel capacity they have coming online. Uh but it’s uh you know if you if you pare it down to just uh premium lowvall and premium midvall and you look at what the forward demand looks like um there’s not enough uh that’s in the pipeline in the development pipeline to supply it. So more than likely what’s going to happen is that that demand will trickle down into second tier hard coing coal and you’ll see a kind of a shrinking of the relativities between the premium stuff and the next tier down. Um and I think you’ll see India use more PCI. So the relativities of PLV to PCI are probably going to shrink as well. Um I think Japan will probably increase their PCI rates like that’s that’s where I see the pressure valve to the extent that there is one uh being released in the market now. uh semisoft h highvall completely different supply story um that’s going to be kind of a rough go of it I think for uh for a year or two but once that gets resolved then then everything you know is going to begin to move up commenurately with the with the rest of the cycle >> so that there’s a lot of hope on this this India narrative playing out and a lot of people have a bit of kind of stock in it what do what do you keep your eyes on to just check in that it’s continuing to play out as you’ve kind of forecast over the past few years and as we look forward >> um I put out a chart I try to do it every couple of weeks or whatever that just looks at Indian steel margins. Uh so I I you know take uh you know PLV medal and whatever the current shipping rates are to India and we just deliver it to a fictitious plan and then run a cost stack off of that and see what their margin is. uh when the margins have been deeply negative or or you know are inflecting to the downside that has for the last year or so indicated that we’re going to have a rough go of the next sort of few months. Uh and vice versa when steel prices allow um you know uh Indians to go into the market and uh and pick up uh and actually pick up tons at reasonable prices then the cycle goes the other way. So really that’s what I’m kind of using as an onoff lever. uh and you know we’re writing about it on on the coltrader.com the coltrader.substack.com substack.com as often as we can but that’s like for me that’s the bell weather now is what what is the health of India’s steel industry um right now it’s okay you know last year it was pretty bad we we’ve we’ve graduated from bad to okay uh but as we see it in the you know the Coke stock prices when you go from terrible to less bad that’s usually where you get the highest beta right >> that that’s really interesting because if we if we look back the last 10 or 20 years and And I’m pretty green here, so I’m really curious to hear what you have to say. The the Chinese steel sector has not always been the most profitable. It’s it’s waxed and waned, but there’s been some atrocious years of of profitability for the for the steel makers out of out of China. But on the whole, if we look back over the last 20 20 odd years, it has grown quite phenomenally to to the point you made before where it’s kind of plateaued recently. So is that different in India for for the dynamics of how the the industry’s come come about? >> That’s a good question. Uh I’m not quite sure how to answer that uh to be fair. Um but what I would say is that you know when I look back on China uh we used to yeah I think when I when I started forecasting on my own uh you know not not a part of Wood McKenzie or um or working on the equity side um you know one of the things that I sort of looked at was I want to say the average margin at a Chinese mill over like 10 years when I started doing this in 2020 21 was like $4 dollar of IBIDA. That’s before everything else. So it was clear that China was, you know, basically running their steel mills at a cost center to fuel domestic growth. Um when I look at India, uh India kind of likes to make money. So I don’t think they’re going to look the same as a command economy uh going forward. they have a much freer market obviously uh you know uh much more kind of geopolitically aligned with the west and so I think what you’ll see in India is more typical cycle fits and starts it’s not going to be an engine that goes you know 100 miles an hour at a constant speed when uh when the steel mmakers start to hurt from a profitability perspective uh you know you they’ll slow down uh they’re more incentivized to uh to take those market cues than than the Chinese are which honestly from an investment standpoint I think a good thing that benefits us because then cycles do become a little bit more predictable as opposed to operating on the whim of the next five-year plan. Um so I I think that’s going to be you by and large more profitable for uh for the investing side of things as we go forward. at your core. Matt, you’re a cost curve guy and um I I’m just I’m keen to understand and appreciate how cost curves have have evolved or what are the dynamics amongst those kind of cost curves like say see the changes in the last like four years. >> Well, most of the changes have occurred on the on twofold. Well, one is on the mining side. We’ve had a lot of uh labor cost inflation around the globe. I think that’s, you know, it’s maybe not exactly uniform from country to country, but that has been a theme. In order to incentivize, uh, you know, men and women to go work in these industries, you have to pay them a wage that encourages it. And that’s, um, that’s that’s been the reality. Uh, certainly in where I come from in West Virginia, um, you know, there’s there’s no love lost between uh, you know, the people in the industry over the years. Um, so if you want to, you know, bring a third generation, fourth generation coal miner to work after he’s seen, you know, his father and his grandfather, uh, you know, and they and they saw that his great-grandfather go through these these employment cycles. Um, it’s a it’s a much tougher cell than it used to be. Um, you know, I think that probably changes to some degree going forward as we increase automation within the industry. Um I’m not uh uh you know on the on the bleeding edge of uh equipment development and those things but I would I would expect to see a pretty hefty amount of automation uh if we have this conversation in say 10 years. I went to a a conference in Pittsburgh uh in early June uh and uh there was a remote uh Joy was running a remote continuous minor operator uh and it’s like playing a video game. It’s amazing. But uh they’re they’re what they want to do is they want to have people be able to sit at the surface and run these machines underground and then you just send in uh you know essential maintenance when when we get to that point. Um I’m not sure what the cost curve is going to look like that if we have that kind of labor cost deflation. Is that offset by maintenance capex? Is that offset by equipment purchases? Um >> ratios geological. Yeah. >> Yeah. I think that’s to be determined >> um over time. But um the the other the other cost increase in general has been the the royalty side from the government side and that’s been entirely in Australia. So if we see a reversal of that uh you know sometime in the next uh before the end of the decade I mean that will that would really shift the top end of the cost curve. >> Yeah. So, you know, we wouldn’t be able to uh, you know, have these blowoff numbers. Uh, I don’t think at all. I think you’d probably put a cap at like 350 400 bucks and that would be the end of it. >> So, Matt’s not at the forefront of mining equipment advancements. Maybe we should introduce him to Derek Herd because Derek Herd is at the forefront of mining equipment advancements. >> Sanvic ground support, CSI, >> mate. It’s it’s literally in their DNA to bring R&D of ground support to the industry via new products every it feels like every week. >> 150 years they’ve been doing this for. It’s their bread and butter innovation. They’re at the bleeding edge of keeping mine workers safe. Like >> 150 years. >> It’s crazy. >> I don’t even know mines have been been here for that long. >> Even even longer, mate. But as long as we got mines, you got to have them safe. And that’s what Sanvic do. And like Matt said, they’re at the bleeding edge of ground support. So if you’ve got an underground mine in any continent on the planet, they can look after you, mate. >> Get in touch with Sanvic ground support. Derek Herd will fix you up. >> Go Sanvic. >> So help me help me just to appreciate how you’ve witnessed this like the the hu enormous kind of royalty regime that was introduced in in in Queensland to a lesser part in in in New South Wales that it’s it’s like morphed the cost curve. Were those were many of those assets like lower half or upper half and now I’m guessing it’s just it’s lifted the kind of the floor to the benefit of of you know ex Australia seabour producers who have been able to capture greater margin at a at a higher floor price. So, if we think about what the marginal ton is, what the cost of that mine is, um, in the before times when we were building out the the cost curve at Woodmac, uh, for Matt, I would have said that probably was somewhere in the 120s. >> Yeah. >> Which meant that you would have had, you know, for any sort of two or three-month period, you can, you know, spot price can go down 25% below that. uh people shut down operations and it and it comes back up and uh I want to say that you know in the last really terrible bare cycle medal bottomed out in the low 90s um so so that kind of tracks uh that number now I’m pretty sure is about605 um which used to be the long-term price assumption for for PLV so and you know It it also makes the cost curve more volatile from year to year. So when you have these these blowoff uh tops um Australia moves to the to the top of the curve. Um and the US stays steady. So you have this like change uh that that never used to have never used to be in existence at all. Um and if the if the US is setting the cost floor uh for the rest of the world, oh I can guarantee that’s going to be pretty high. Um so there’s there’s a lot of uh tolerance for volatility when we get up into those uh into the upper stratosphere. Um so you know all in all we were asked the question on the podcast today like where do you think uh you know will we get five years down the road what’s what will have been the average price? Um and uh I remember uh I was I was having dinner with Andy Edson about two or three years ago and he asked me that question. And I said probably about 265. You know, if you think of the bottom as uh 160 165 bucks and you think of the you know the the peak of the market uh probably without you know a Russia Ukraine layered over top of it is probably you know 350 400. If you kind of just go to the mean, you’re going to wind up at about 250 260 265 and that’s plenty for, you know, a higher cost miner to u make money uh make a a 20% profit on top of maintenance capex and whatever logistics they have. Um that to me is kind of where prices have to be for PLOV uh to just maintain uh the status quo. Um if you can’t do that and more supply comes out then that number winds up being higher until uh you know till robots take over the world. Well if robots take over the world I um actually well there’s this AI paradox now I think and it and it’s and it’s the the the reality is that technological advancements now require more fossil fuel as opposed to becoming energy independent or relying on on new energy. We actually need more fossil fuels as a result of the the latest technological advancement. So if robots take over the world, I think we’re still going to need a ton more coal. >> Oh yeah, if there if they even plan to take over the world, we’re going to need a ton more steel, too. >> I’m not sure. I mean, if we’re going to build those robots out of aluminum, that that’s another quandry we get into. So, uh, yeah, there’s there’s no, you know, it’s hard for me to not to look at the next decade and not think that, you know, all the companies that that we love and have been close to for the last, uh, uh, you know, decade or so are going to fare really well. Um, this is going to be a pretty pretty important transition, not just for the industry, but I think for, you know, for humankind as well. Well, the last time we had you on the show, we were we were speaking about M&A and consolidation in this in the space with um the the Peabody deal that ultimately fell through. So, if you do think ahead 10 years, is there is there more? Is there less companies? What does it kind of look like? And and in the near term, are there deals playing in the back of your mind? >> It’s interesting. Well, somebody’s going to have to come in and take the Anglo assets. I’m not sure who uh is going to be the best candidate for that. uh you know I would have said BHP uh a while ago uh but uh you know now that Anglo is um uh sort of uh you know engaged uh I’m I’m not sure what that’s going to look like on down the road. Um you know uh I think in the US we’ll have some consolidation over time. I think uh you know uh companies uh I think core probably wants to acquire uh I would venture to guess over time. I I would I wouldn’t be surprised if AMR or Warrior uh both uh were interested in acquiring, but I I think at the at the crux of the question is everybody needs more Lovall. Um, and that’s what we’re going to need to uh, you know, see people invest in. You know, whether that’s lowvol PCI, uh, second tier hard coing, coal, premium, midvall, um, you know, PCI, like all we need, all of the above, and there’s not enough of it in the market to sustain it. Um, so, you know, I I think M&A makes sense. I think we we will see somebody come in and eventually restart a lot of these mines that have that have been shut down here recently. Um but uh you know who’s going to lead that capital cycle? Um I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s someone like Matt Latimore. Um I think I think he’s positioned pretty well to you know to make a move here in the next uh uh during the next cycle at some point. >> The cold tycoon of this cycle undoubtedly. Yeah, for sure. Um the um India India is going to be very involved. >> Yeah. >> Um >> I imagine a bunch will pop out of Glen Tinto if if that deal eventually. There’ll be plenty plenty of divestments subsequent to that deal. >> Yeah. Uh and we’re talking about maybe a coal spin out of the Glen Tinto deal as well. U I’m here for that. Give that to me all day. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um yeah, let’s let’s talk about Latimore briefly because A recent a recent deal that um that they did do was acquire Ilawa out of South 32. Do you think that will come back to market in some way, shape, or form? Do you think they’ll um that’ll that’ll find like a a public vehicle? >> Uh public vehicle, that’s a good question. I don’t necessarily know the answer to that. Um but uh I think it would it would make sense especially if he were able to you know tack on a few other um acquisitions as well. Um so I saw they had the they had an incident uh up there at some point in time here recently. I’m not sure what the what the current status is of those operations, but the uh the the message I think is pretty clear uh is that if you’re operating in Australia uh an economy of scale will do you really well. Uh I mean BHP’s been able to weather those those production storms because they have a pretty big portfolio of assets. Um and I think that’s uh you know that’s that’s the case as well. It’s like if you’re a uh single asset producers have been you know very exposed to these price cycles in the past. Uh so you need to get at that critical you know three four five uh you know operations and preferably as many as you can in the premium segment as well uh in order to be I think guaranteed a uh you know a throne in the next uh in the next cycle. That’s actually I’m glad you mentioned BHP because that’s that’s we heard a rumor like I want to say October last year that um yeah BHP would was likely to to evaluate a a devestment of BMA by the calendar end of calendar year 26. Do you think there’s that’s nonsense or do you think uh do you think that might hold up if if the royalty regime in Queensland stays where it is? >> Uh I don’t think that’s uh out of the question at all. I mean it would uh they’ve kind of signaled that they want to wind that down to some degree in the past and um you know at the right price especially uh with those remaining reserves like do you want to carry that operating risk uh on through another capital cycle for them when they have uh uh you know bigger fish to fry elsewhere. Um it’s a good question. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it change hands at some point in time or maybe not all of it but uh uh one or two targeted mines uh over over a period of time or alternately they acquire something and then spin it out. Um I think that would be pretty reasonable as well. Excuse our Australian bias, but you know, we’re just going to keep talking about Australian coal companies, Matt, but um uh >> well, like on on that point, Trav, in the context of Bomb Basin and and the fact that there’s next to no new mines coming online, given the the high quality nature and the the strategic placement of of the assets and the, you know, the shackles they have with the royalty regime, you’d have to think it’d be it’d be kind of um appealing with, you know, the, you know, as an option type play with the idea that maybe the royalties roll off in in a few years time, that could be something that’s that’s pretty interesting depending on on prices, you put it there. >> Yeah. If the royalty regime went back to uh the before times, >> let’s say in five years, >> that won’t happen. >> Not while state like Queensland state debt just explodes exponentially faster than the royalty >> revenue fund. Easy. Oh, >> that’s that’s true. That’s true. Yeah. Um but let’s let’s say they they ease off some >> degree. Yeah. >> Uh then yeah, I mean that’s a call option on whatever purchase it is that you make, right? You can’t necessarily work that into the uh you know, you can write it in as a scenario in terms of a potential valuation, but without uh you know, without any you know, guarantee of of whether or not that’s going to happen. I don’t think you could pay for it. Um, it’s, you know, you could maybe use it to justify, you know, an additional five 10% upside or something like that. But >> the structure of those royalties was was mental as well because it was designed to kind of capture this super profit period, but but at these fixed price levels and so like you know um it became increasingly ownorous at these above certain fixed kind of like prices, right? and and now with just the the event of inflation, it it it completely just erodess any any ability for these businesses to have any margin over time, right? >> Uh you would think so, but at the same time, uh you know, the US is doing a really outstanding job of torching the dollar here at the moment. And >> yeah, right. I mean, I the the the Australian US dollar crossed 70 uh for the first time in God knows how long. It’s been a while. Um, and at least when I run my models, that’s uh the difference in price there is about plus $5 on, you know, on long-term forecast for uh for metal. Um, but the other thing it does is it uh I mean it’ll say if the if the Aussie dollar uh went back to par like where it was, you know, during the last u uh you know, during the first coal boom that I went through, um well, that that takes away a lot of the uh the upside for royalties. You know, if we get back up to $300, $400 and we’re saying that’s the max that um you know, these other countries steel steel industries can handle. Well, if that’s only 300 or 400 Aussie dollars at the same time, that’s not quite as big of a hit uh that the government will get. So, you know, the the US hasn’t has a you know, sort of a what is that a tertiary role to play in uh in in how that pans out over time. Um so, and I and you know, speaking you know, solely from from perspective over here, uh it ain’t stopping uh during this presidency. uh there is a 0% chance that we will stop uh hammering money I think uh over the next uh three years and uh and I’m not sure that you know even in the event of uh you know Democrats taking over the Senate and us returning to gridlock uh or god forbid you know whoever the the next uh the next Democratic president is we’re we’re going to have different um different versions of the same problem until something breaks here in the US. So, um I I think I think we’re kind of at the beginning of a of a currency cycle that is way above my pay grade, but something that I think all of us will have to pay very close attention to uh over the coming five years because what I if if I can change the value of the currency by 10% and that changes the medal price by $5, what happens if we change it by 30%. Um that’s uh that’s kind of where you know I have to take off my analyst hat and just go I don’t know what’s going to happen here at this point in time. So most of what we can do is just take the the the the variables that we have plug them into the model and solve for X. And when we start mcking around with the variables um you know that’s a pretty wide range of outcomes for for everything. So it’s a it’s why I hate politics man. So fun. >> When you plug those variables into your models, Matt, I’m just I’m I’m keen to depict how you know your relative preference of of the um of the coal stocks we’re familiar with by by you know relative to their current price. Um you think just just if you could like order names like Stanmore, Yankl, White Haven um that that would be wonderful. >> Um I mean I think I think Stanmore is criminally undervalued down here. >> Yeah. Uh, I’m just looking at trailing EV to Ebida. Uh, which isn’t the best metric, but it’s what I have in front of me. And, you know, White Haven’s up at, you know, five and a 5.3. Uh, and then Stanmore is a 3.8. That’s just wrong. And then, you know, in the US, you know, on the Met side, you know, Alpha’s at 5.5. I mean, shouldn’t White Haven get a US multiple? like it should absolutely uh you know get get something comparable I think in those Warriors at 7.9 I mean come on guys White Haven’s as big a global player uh and just as important to uh to the global industry and more diverse um yeah like let’s let’s get those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers. >> Well, you can you can thank Aussie Super. I think they’re they’re helping the cause and um buying White Haven stock again. So, >> I mean, it’s been on a heater like it’s nearly doubled in the in the last >> I don’t know 12 months or something like that. So, >> quietly quietly finding popularity >> and that’s like that you I mentioned Aussie super buying White Haven again, but there’s there’s absolutely this kind of evolution in global capital allocation. You know, Black Rockck’s had many iterations of its ESG influence on the world and and we’re now in ESG 4.0 0 era which um is is the the the realization that that these businesses are incredibly important to our prosperity and that they shouldn’t have been so punitive in um in their their ways of restricting capital flows into these businesses previously. >> It matters tremendously for the cost of capital. Hey Matt, like the the change in debt that these guys are playing like you’ve probably got more more boots on the ground so to speak. >> It’s cheap again. You can get you can get really cheap debt as a call company. I mean, it was crazy high. It was out of this world high. But I’m not sure what the latest numbers on on debt packages for the for the states companies that you’re seeing are, but it’s really pulled in over here. >> I mean, uh, you know, I don’t think it’s out of the question to be able to go get an 8 and a half% coupon, 10% coupon somewhere around in there. And that was unheard of just a few Well, getting anything was unheard of a few years ago. >> Yeah. >> Um, >> and and and the Fed’s rate, the Fed’s fund rate was was next to zero a few years ago as well. And now we’re we’re at whatever it is 4% or something. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Exactly. I mean, you know, all these coal companies which were, you know, left for dead in the first part of my career, all have better balance sheets than the United States. So, God bless. >> That is great. >> Wait, just wait for the United States to nationalize them. Then they’ll have bad balance sheets again. >> Never say never. Yeah, I yeah, I can see a scenario where that that could play out. Um, >> and >> but yeah, just uh looking down the list, I mean, uh, I think I think New Hope is probably pretty fairly valued here. They’ve had a nice little >> Yep. >> uh, you know, uh, 13% up to to kind of catch up with everybody else here the last little bit. Um, Yan Cole had a nice 20% run. >> Yeah. um less uh and then yeah, White Havens, I mean, White Haven’s going to take out all-time highs this cycle and just keep going. >> Yeah. >> Uh so I I pretty firmly believe in that that we should see it rerate higher up to sort of the US guys at least. Um and I want to see Stanmore get up into the fives. Um like that should be a $4 stock, an Aussie $4 stock at least. >> Yep. Yep. And uh XASX names where, you know, where what are your most favored stocks at the moment? I mean, I’m still pretty firmly on the Met side. Uh, you know, we’re at the beginning of this cycle here. I want to be um you know I’m not fully sized in anything coal right now but I think maybe by the time we get to the end of shoulder season end of June uh I want you know at least you know a 15 20% basket you know allocated across the met sector which would include really in no particular order AMR uh Warrior um HCC uh Ramico MEC uh White Haven and Stanmore I think would be and and core natural resources and Peabody. I don’t have any Peabody right now either. So, there’s seven and they’re all fine. >> Yeah. >> Like, you know, it’s it’s sort of like pick your uh pick your horse. Uh Peabody’s interesting because we’re we’re increasing lowvall production. We’re going to have a pretty good thermal coal year in the Illinois basin and the Powder River basin. Um you know, it’s uh it’s already completely come back to the highs from uh from the Anglo days of Yore. Um but uh yeah, it’s if they start buying back back stock especially um there’s there’s room for that to sort of go higher as well. So anyway, I’m I’ve got um you know I’ve got my calendar circled for end of June and I want to have you know a basket of all these and which one’s going to be the highest uh allocated at that time will kind of depend on where we wind up in the cycle. But, you know, right now, I think you could make a case for, you know, putting almost any of those at the top at any one point uh at any one point in time. I mean, you know, Ramico isn’t the isn’t the biggest producer, but they’ve got all the uh you know, the rare earth uh uh marketing hype. >> Is that what is that what lured you in to start talking about rare earth as well, Matt? Was it was it Ramaco? It was it was pretty clear that if we want to have any sort of basis in reality for uh understanding what valuations look like for um now keep in mind Peabody and and core natural resources also have mines in the PRB that will have you know comparable uh you know concentrations of of you know gallium and uh and you know light rarers mostly I would figure scandi and those sorts of things. Um, and the US government is currently writing checks at a pretty alarming clip. So, yeah, that’s that’s why I had to start kind of digging in and at least becoming familiar enough with the sector that I could function a little bit. And, you know, along the way uh it sort of became really clear that the uh I mean the the oxide really isn’t the constraint there. It’s metalization. um you know it’s uh you know SX processing uh metalization so those are the companies that that I probably want to focus on more over the longer term uh because like we don’t have anybody in the US who knows how to run any of these operations anymore so we’re going to have to rebuild all the expertise we’re going to have to you know import the technology we’re going to have to you know nearshore or friendly shore uh raw material supply because like other than MP um you know we have you know ground top is, you know, without uh a processing facility located nearby, like would not be a mine in and of itself, you know. Um, so it it’s the way that I look at this is there’s it’s the West versus China and the West is in the process of aligning. Uh, and that means, you know, partnerships between the US and Australia, partnerships between US and Brazil. uh it’s just uh you know rally the troops and let’s uh let’s see if we can you know create a uh you know downstream uh magnet manufacturing uh industry that that lies outside of China for the first time in you know 30 years it’s uh it’s going to be group effort boys >> and do do you have a first pass view on the uh the stockpile announcement that that came out I think over overnight for us here in in Australia but in a nutshell Trump wanting to to put together a12 billion US group of any which metals. It wasn’t exactly clear. Pretty pretty light on details. >> Yeah, I mean I think Samarium, Europium, I think those were kind of two at the at the top end of the want spectrum at least from what I understand. But uh yeah, like that also that comes on the heel of that Reuters article uh last week which absolutely rugpulled the whole sector. Wow. Yet was edited >> yet was edited like four times to the point where it was like why why did you even write the >> such good entertainment. What like the MP materials Twitter handle. >> Oh yeah. Shout out to MP Material social media. That was the most fun thing I’ve read in a long time. the uh but it’s you know it just absolutely punished most of those companies for no real reason. Uh and then uh the announcement that we’re going to build these stock piles just basically proves it. Like there’s there’s more than one way that that Trump can implement tariffs. You know, there’s more than one way that we can set floor prices. Like there’s, you know, I I understand that it’s news and like if you go out and you have somebody give that quote to you in your journals, you got to print it. Uh absolutely. But you should at least do the podicum of work to understand that even if this happens, are there other avenues to get there? And that’s kind of what I thought that they failed to do. Like markets are complex and if there’s demand for something, it will find a way uh and it will show up, you know, in price whether you want it to or not. They’re very funny like that. >> Yeah. >> So, uh anyway, that’s that’s my take as to as to how that progresses. I don’t know. But, uh it was it was a nice bookend to the shenanigans from last week. >> Totally. Totally. I mean for all the complexity that the fact that one Reuters article can can shake the the market like that is yeah entertaining if anything all the paper hands over here in the US >> and that’s not us at all. Those are rookie numbers. >> That’s an absolute delight to speak with you about all things Cole as always. Look forward to um yeah you being accompanied by your partner Joe next time that you’re um you grace us with your presence on our on our channel. But thank you so much. >> Uh thanks for having me guys. It’s so wonderful to get to talk to you every time and absolutely we’ll bring a guest here next time uh so that I can wax so we can wax more poetic about the thermal coal side. >> Look forward to it. Have a good one Matt. Thank you. There we go mate. What a pleasure as always speaking with Matt Water. You can check out his fantastic work on Substack at the coal trader and he’s also got the uh the rare earth trader. He puts out a bunch of work there. Super insightful. So go check that out. And all made possible thanks to our fantastic partners Sambitic ground support focus the platform by market you would have seen some of the charts in the show there intrlinks and exceed capitaloo now remember I’m an idiot JD is an idiot if you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment you’re an idiot and you need to read our disclaimer

Pitch Summary:
PolyPid has developed a promising product, D-PLEX100, which significantly reduces surgical site infections by delivering antibiotics directly into the surgical wound. The company recently completed a successful Phase 3 trial, showing a 58% reduction in infection rates, and is preparing for a New Drug Application filing in early 2026. With a cash runway through FDA approval and a European partnership already in place, PolyPid is well-positioned for commercialization. The stock is currently undervalued, trading at a fraction of its potential, with a projected 3x upside if the company successfully navigates the regulatory and commercialization processes.

BSD Analysis:
PolyPid’s SHIELD II trial results are a strong indicator of the product’s efficacy, having achieved statistically significant outcomes and early trial termination for efficacy. The company’s strategic partnerships, particularly in Europe with Advanz Pharma, provide a solid foundation for market entry. Financially, PolyPid has managed dilution effectively, raising $26.7M through a creative warrant structure that encourages long-term holding. The company’s focus on a high unmet need area, combined with its proprietary PLEX technology, positions it well for future growth and potential label expansions into other surgical areas. Despite past investor skepticism due to the biotech sector’s inherent risks, PolyPid’s current setup offers a compelling risk-reward profile.

Pitch Summary:
Journey Medical is positioned for significant growth with the launch of Emrosi, the first new oral treatment for rosacea in over 20 years. The company has a strong leadership team with a proven track record from Medicis, and a robust commercialization strategy. Emrosi has shown superiority over existing treatments and is already seeing strong prescription momentum. With a break-even base business, the revenue from Emrosi is highly accretive, and management expects gross margins to improve as the product mix shifts. The company has secured manufacturing and payer coverage, setting the stage for a steady ramp in sales.

BSD Analysis:
Journey Medical’s strategy leverages the expertise of its leadership team, many of whom have successfully commercialized dermatology products before. The company’s dual-site manufacturing strategy mitigates supply chain risks, ensuring consistent product availability. With 65% of U.S. commercial lives covered and two major PBMs onboard, payer traction is strong, supporting a durable prescription ramp. The company’s financial position is solid, with no immediate need for capital raises, and it expects to be cash flow positive by 2025. The focus on execution and alignment through equity ownership further strengthens its commercial prospects.

Pitch Summary:
Applied Energetics (AERG) is on the verge of transitioning from a perceived lab experiment to a proven technology company. The company’s ultra-short-pulse laser technology has demonstrated precision and power control in recent tests, disabling stationary cameras with high accuracy. The company is engaging in more partnership and customer discussions, indicating growing interest in its technology. An upcoming outdoor demonstration could further validate its capabilities, potentially leading to a significant re-rating of the stock. The company’s progress, though not linear, is deliberate and structured, suggesting that once operational proof is achieved, market perception will shift rapidly.

BSD Analysis:
The investment thesis for Applied Energetics hinges on its ability to demonstrate the scalability and operational effectiveness of its laser technology. The company’s recent achievements in precision targeting and power control are critical milestones that suggest readiness for broader application. As the company continues to refine its technology and engage with potential partners, the likelihood of a breakthrough event increases. This could catalyze a rapid revaluation of the stock, as the market recognizes the transition from experimental to operational status. Investors should watch for upcoming demonstrations and partnership announcements as potential catalysts for stock appreciation.

Pitch Summary:
GBank’s recent quarterly performance reflects a strategic shift under the leadership of its founder, Ed Nigro, who has returned as CEO. The company has implemented significant changes to restore profitability in its SBA lending division by tying broker compensation to profitability rather than volume. The credit card business has been rebuilt to scale with enhanced fraud prevention systems, positioning it for substantial growth. Additionally, GBank’s innovative slot program, which integrates banking and gaming, has received regulatory approval, paving the way for future expansion. These strategic initiatives are expected to drive significant earnings growth, with projections of $63 million pre-tax earnings by 2026.

BSD Analysis:
GBank’s strategic realignment under Ed Nigro’s leadership is a testament to the company’s commitment to long-term growth and stability. By focusing on profitability and scalability, GBank is poised to capitalize on its core strengths in SBA lending, credit card services, and gaming financial solutions. The regulatory approval of its slot program is a game-changer, allowing GBank to redefine gaming funding with a secure, bank-integrated solution. This positions GBank as a leader in the fintech space, with the potential to disrupt traditional gaming and banking models. The company’s robust infrastructure and innovative approach make it an attractive acquisition target for major banks or card issuers, further enhancing its growth prospects.

Pitch Summary:
Cipher Pharmaceuticals continues to generate strong cash flow with high EBITDA margins, providing a margin of safety. However, the company’s growth prospects hinge on its ability to expand Natroba’s market share in the US. While there are strategic initiatives in place, such as a DTC platform and institutional marketing, progress has been slow. The company’s strong balance sheet and potential for M&A provide optionality, but execution on growth initiatives is crucial for unlocking value.

BSD Analysis:
Cipher Pharmaceuticals’ robust cash flow generation and minimal debt position offer financial stability, but the company’s growth trajectory depends on its strategic initiatives. The planned rollout of a DTC platform and efforts to increase institutional awareness are promising steps to drive Natroba’s market share. Additionally, the company’s focus on securing Medicaid Preferred Status upgrades could enhance its competitive position. While the litigation outcome with Sun Pharmaceuticals presents potential upside, the company’s ability to execute on growth initiatives remains a key determinant of its future valuation.

Description:
We’ve got something different in store today. We threw the signal out there (via Twitter) and asked the great crowd of mining …

Transcript:
Travis Ricardo, Money Miners. We’ve got a bit of a different episode, don’t we? >> Yeah, it was um it was this is an interesting episode. I I’ve been kind of curious about how do we how do we just get the perspectives, pictures, stock ideas of the money miners out there. Money miners, you all you come from all walks of life, different backgrounds. You you might be a geo or a mining engineer or a punter or or a broker, whatever. Who knows? And sometimes you guys have elite ideas. Often those ideas are better than our ideas. often they’re better than our guest ideas. So for this episode, we just spontaneously whipped up at Twitter spaces last night at like 5:00 p.m. with an hour’s notice said, “Jump online in an hour if you’ve got a stock pitch.” And throughout the course of a bit over an hour, we we got stock pitches from like a dozen uh dozen odd people who who articulated their thesis why they think a certain thing about spec stocks of all walks of life. Some some like, you know, medium caps, some spec stocks. But um I like this one, mate. What do you think of it? >> Yeah, it was good fun. You told me many hundreds of people dialed in, which is which is pretty cool and and not what we kind of realized when we were when we were having the chat. >> 76 people live. So hopefully a few thousand more when this episode goes up. >> We’ve got ideas from from $5 million companies all the way through to you say 800 million bucks would be the top end. So >> yeah, what we love resources companies, some producers, some developers, and very keen to hear what you think, money miners, but let’s jump in and and share some of these ideas. Let’s get to it. >> Good day, everyone. This is going to be interesting. I’ll give it a few more moments for um couple more people to to jump in and um then I’ll sort of just lay out lay out some ground rules and see if we get some interesting people pitch some ideas. You’ve got both myself and JD on the line here. Good day, mate. >> Keen to see what we come up with, mate. >> What we come up with? You mean what what what the uh what >> what what MTI comes up with? >> What Mwick comes up with? This is your first time on Twitter in about 4 years. >> It’s a special day >> via my account. >> Didn’t want to get too close. >> Uh twin, you’re on mute if you wanted to um you wanted to talk. >> I just I just wanted to make sure you guys are prepared. That was all. I don’t want you to go down this path and just be railroaded by some of us clowns on on >> Mwit. I think we know what we signed up for. Have you got an idea to win? >> Uh well, I’ve always got ideas. Whether they’re good or not, I don’t know. What’s what’s top of the pile? >> I want you guys to be >> I want you guys to be hyper critical. All right. So, >> unless it’s unless it’s tether, mate, I will be hyperritical. You know that. Well, I was going to pitch this idea of, you know, I was a child star in the movies back in the 80s and I went to see Jeffrey Epstein and between the two of us, we came up with an idea for some pretend money and never get audited and we’ll be worth billions and we’ll buy a whole bunch of gold. But you already know that story, so there’s probably no point me pitching that one. >> Take all my money. So, um, at the moment, I think it’s obvious that gold’s on a has been on a bit of a tear and and, uh, some of our overseas compatriots are starting to find some of the the gold and silver miners. So, I think I I should start with a gold stock. So, I’m gonna start with a ticker called Kau. I have spoken. >> Yeah, I have spoken about this, but >> um I’ll give you the I’ll give you the five. Well, the five less than the two-minute elevator pitch. >> Y >> they rent they recently took over Henti Henti gold mine in Tasmania. >> Yeah, >> it’s been going forever, right? It’s it’s one of these it’s one of these real typical mining stocks that you know they have five or six years resources and then every couple years they drill the next couple of years and it just seems to what was a five to six year mine life has now been going 20 years with another five to six years to go. So um recently Kaiser took ownership of it from and struck a deal where their major the the people that used to own it um I think it’s C >> Yeah. are a major shareholder still. So, they’ve got a vested interest. Um but but ultimately where the value comes is, you know, with gold where it is now, they’ve they’ve owned the mine for a bit over six months. Um they’ve put in a whole bunch of improvements, but but fundamentally this they’ve got about 40 million in cash. Their market cap is 160 to 180 million. That sort of >> 190 after today. Yeah. >> Yeah. It was on Friday. It was a bit cheaper. Um but say 190. So they’re sitting on an EV of about 150. >> Yeah. >> So at last quarter’s gold price they generated about 13.5 million um free cash. >> Yeah. >> In the quarter. Uh but there was a couple of oneoffs. Um so the run rate’s pretty close to 16 mil at last quarter’s gold price. They have a couple of um shortterm gold loan and minor little bit of hedging that’s going to all tail off within the next three to six months. >> Yeah. >> So at today’s by my calculations at today’s gold price at that sort of 7,000ish Australian they’re easily clearing I reckon 20 million a quarter. So at current run rate, they’re sitting sub two times cash flow which which I think is um pretty outstanding value. I would have thought >> for you know just given that you know you you’ll you’ll see in the space you’ve got some um some explorers who have you know that sort of half million ounce mark that if haven’t got a mine or they’re toll treating or whatever that are around maybe the 100 mil EV and I just think 150 mil given that they own a plant um they’re putting in a whole bunch of improvements they’re they’re turning the the mill from a 300,000 ton to a 400,000 ton. They’re debottlenecking. They’re they’re increasing the height of the decline to allow some bigger machinery. Um all of which they’re funding at the moment. So they’re funding drilling. They’re funding machinery. They’re working through some very shortterm um gold loans and and hedging, but you know, it’s not scary stuff. It’s not BGL type stuff. It’s all very small. It’ll all be tailed off in the next 3 to six months, I think. So I just think at these sort of prices there’s not a lot of down lot of downside when they’re trading at sort of two times cash flow. >> I think the say it’s remarkable to see like the the quarterly cash generation from Henty. I remember when Catalyst bought this asset from diversified minerals which was um which was Pibar for what I think was less than the free cash flow generated this quarter. Just goes to show the the um the gold price environment we’re in. like things that washed their face for two years, neither here nor there. Not sure Catalyst made much money until the very end there and then and now it’s Yeah.% generative. >> Yeah. I think the knock with with all these things twin and and I’m keen to hear how you you think about it is where does the cash actually go? Like do they just pour it into the next thing? I know they’ve got the assets in in Victoria that are that having capital kind of invested in them and >> you know you want management that’s on your side and all these kind of things. Are you comfortable on that point? >> Yeah, look, they’ve got Malden, which is their Victorian asset. So, it’s a it’s a plant that’s in care and maintenance. It’s got an old mine. It’s an old mine site. They’re doing some drilling there. They’ve got um they’ve got some dumps that they’re looking to process through the plant or potentially toll treat other people’s. I think they do a little bit of toll treating at the moment. But but ultimately with these gold plays on the explorers is you know what kills you in the explorer space is the constant um dilution from capital raises right so great projects you they and they go off and and cap raise every six or 12 months because they want to drill stuff so I don’t necessarily see it as an evil that if they’ve got something that looks pretty good and I think Melbourne his like has some pretty good historic um uh you know, historic grades from their mines and they’re now drilling in and around and under and all that sort of stuff. Um you know, I don’t see it being a bad thing if if if some of the cash at least goes into that exercise because that’s better than the alternative at the 100 million space where, you know, they keep raising every six or 12 months to do the exact same thing. So, you know, maybe it doesn’t appeal to the people that are looking at um dividends like a, you know, evolution or, you know, um, you know, big gold play where they’re just looking at that. They’re looking for something with growth. Um, and I don’t think they’re going to be doing it expensively. I think they’re going to get really quick bang for buck. And I think it would be really hard for them to set to to spend 20 million a quarter. Like that’s 80 million a year, right? So, if gold prices even if they just stay where they are for 12 months, they’re almost they’re they’re getting pretty close to cash backing like and and there’s a saying in in the investing space is if you if you look after the downside, the upside looks after itself. So, I tend to think this is one of those plays where there’s not a lot of downside, right? Unless, you know, if gold went to 3500, you know, and it’s and they’re sitting on a, you know, four or five times cash flow, you might sort of look at it and go, “Oh, you know, it’s just one of those average plays.” But we’re not at three and a half thousand. We’re at five. Um, they’re producing silly amounts of cash. They’ve got potential to ramp up their production. And history shows that there’s a lot of these gold players like this where, you know, they go from a very small production base to a much larger one and they’re all self-funded and they turned into these big behemoths. You know, like it might take him 10 years to do it, but you know, some of the great gold stories in WA, you know, you look at the charts, they were, you know, they’ve gone 20x over the last 10 years because that’s what exactly what they’ve done. They’ve had a project that’s basically funded everything else and they’ve turned into a very big mining house. I think henti is definitely it’s like it’s a stepping stone asset in the same way it was for catalyst like this was you know cat catalyst’s first first mine they they it wasn’t a meaningful kind of part of their business for a long time but it helped them incrementally you know have capital markets relevance for them to do the deal that consolidated the platonic region with both both Van Go and superior and and that’s been a huge success for them but yeah it is interesting at small scale I disagree that your downside is is capped because if if you know it’s it’s um it’s not it’s not cashbacked like there is there is cash to make before it’s cash backed but but I do think yeah it is it does screen value twin good good good pitch mate good pitch thanks for kicking things off I want to see if we can get um >> get someone else up here >> hey boys you hear me you hear me there >> loud and clear mate what have you got for us mate >> oh great just just got off the speedboats uh just uh just checked into my tell. So, I’m a little bit uh flustered, but I’ll have a crack. Um I’m going to go with PVT. It’s in Quebec. >> Oh, yeah. Pivotal Metals. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. It’s 26 million market cap. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> 5.5 million cash. >> Yeah. >> And so about a 20 million EV. >> Yeah. This this is this is um Ivan Fair’s company, right? >> Yeah. That’s it, mate. That’s it. You’re on the ball. That’s 100%. >> He’s a good guy. >> Okay. So, um I’m all about speculation, right? And like you want to if you want to speculate, you want to do it with the lowest uh downside risk. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So the case for PBT is like is really exciting for me and I can see my downside is really small. So for 20 million EV, you get the Hordon Lake copper deposit which is 37 million tons at 1.1% copper equivalent. So just on that basis alone, I believe it’s the cheapest copper deposit on the ASX in terms of EV and things like that. >> Y >> it’s a major portion of it is uh in an open pit open pitable so it’s shallow. >> Y >> it’s not it’s not a reserve. So like you know it’s it’s earlier stage. It’s not a it’s not a reserve. So like you have to put that in consideration but it’s been drilled out heaps. It’s legit deposit, right? And then you have uh meant to be start starting this quarter. You’ve got some diamond drilling at these Bellair targets. They’re just like really exciting stuff, man. Like I I’m looking at some of these hits. I don’t see stuff like this. Like 24 m at 2.3% copper, 1.2% nickel, and 1.9 g PGE. Like it’s just so so you get so you get and it’s got um 5.5 million cash as well, right? So you you got no dilution worries for you get you get a free you getting the swing. >> So you’re getting the your your market cap is backed by Horton Lake the the copper deposit you’ve already got in the bag. >> Y >> then you’re going for a speculative drills into some really high speculative uh ground with some great results and really untested strike and everything. So short and sweet. I really think like for a speculative case, it’s it’s obviously more on the speculative side, right? Like you it’s 26 million market cap, 5.5 million cash, so you’re not paying too much for it. I just think it’s in a really good spot. And QEX is a really nice area as well, like for mining. You know, they they recently did the free uh free flow credits, so you get you get less dilution when you’re raising money. So um >> yeah, I remember looking at this. >> Just I need I need to What do you Any thoughts? Any thoughts, boys? Yeah, I I remember looking at this I want to say it was like four or five months ago maybe maybe a bit longer and it yeah at the time it definitely it screened like cheap just on like you know the the >> I think it was under 10 mil market >> cap just the EV EV resource but >> it was 6 million market cap unbelievably it was 6 million market cap like 6 months ago or something. Yeah, I think the um the the thing like you know these things are always cheap until they’re not or whatever, but the thing that that always kind of trips me up when I look at the small cap stuff and you’re a better small cap micro cap picker than I am, mate. But it’s it’s like I want to see some some um some backer who who can really just like, you know, help help consist help provide some consistent funding. And at the time when I looked there wasn’t there, but now I can see those >> in the recent uh sorry to interrupt you. uh in in the recent credits there was that Matt Latimore or something what I don’t follow individuals but he he he stumped up in the recent raise so there is like some kind of like backing there in the in in the recent raise like a well-known figure in the mining space so >> has that there now >> that’s that that moves the dial a bit >> well he’s just back to spec so maybe he go >> has he >> yeah yeah yeah >> I didn’t see that >> that had about 270 million bucks so this uh >> take this one and some >> yeah Yeah. I And um yeah, that that moves the dial. It’s just such a bloody long permitting timeline for some of this stuff, too. But but yeah, there’s a there’s a there’s a project there. I agree. There’s a project there. >> Yeah. The makeup of the deposit is also interesting. It’s like got bits of gold, bits of platinum, bits of palladium, bits of nickel, and like it that that’s oh my how’s the Mets looking for that? But they’ve been doing metwork on it and it looks pretty sweet. Like it looks pretty looks looks okay. like they’ve been doing work on that’s what they’ve been doing the last few years because well you know drill results weren’t rewarded for the last two or three years like if you’re in the explorer racing space like you hit a good drill hit and you know you’re red you stink so it made sense for them to work on the MET stuff when you weren’t getting any uh value for dollar for your drilling you know so um I just think that’s a really good setup you know you got you got the market cap backed by a deposit which I think is undervalued alone and then you also have the expiration uh upside of a totally different project and just some amazing hits on there. So, yeah, I reckon that’s a really good really good spot. >> Yeah, it’s interesting. Over 300,000 contained tons of copper. >> I think I was >> You go, mate. >> Gone. Gone. I’ll just say I was like I was I was scouring the ASX for like undervalued copper deposits that haven’t moved yet, right? Like I was on COD, I was on CST, I was on these ones that already they already moved and I the only one I could find was PBT. This is the only one I can find. Like I it’s just because they’ve all had a good run. You know, the copper deposits have had a good run. >> Yeah, I I kind of like your thinking. We did a bit of a a kind of screening similarly, but of gold maybe six months ago to to I don’t know. It’s pretty crude, but you look at the ones under 50 mil market cap and I think a million plus ounces in in reserve to try and separate some of the the crap from the the less crappy. And yeah, pretty crude, but commodity prices keep running. It actually it actually kind of works and people start sifting down and looking for ideas. >> I can um I can tell I can give everything that spec doesn’t want. So we’re talking Filipino copper 3 billion shares on issue shit management and no money. So you know >> where do I sign up you want? >> Yeah. I got to do a ding ding ding. I got to do a ding ding ding for this one and then I’ll let you give the pitch. Yeah. >> Um so name and shame. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. CLA Celsius Resources been around for a while. I think they’re in coal and went into Africa with some cobalt and now I’ve popped up with um copper in the Philippines. Uh got interested originally I think they had some 600 meter hits at over 1% copper really early. Um from there the local the guys that have actually done this the local guys that vended it in to CLA um they they’ve done a pretty good job. Um but it’s always a case trying to align incentives. The management team in CLA probably haven’t done always the best job that they probably could. However, having said that locally they’ve done a really good job. They’ve got the wealth fund involved. So the Filipino wealth fund got about $2 billion. They’re only invested in one mining project. They did DD on this project for about six months and then they gave them a $76 US million funding package started with 10 million US to fund a Senko to do the DFS which they just released and probably bottled the release of that. Um and then they’ve got another 66 million um that I believe they’ve probably applied for subject to a satisfactory feasibility. Good chance this thing gets funded or taken out. Uh it they probably don’t have heaps of cash, probably just under a million. They’ve run a bit in the the last little bit, but the project’s pretty good. Probably 1% copper over the first 10 years. Local community support it. Um they message that they only own 40% of the project, but the local entity that owns 60% hasn’t actually paid for it. Uh they’re supposed to pay by the 16th of Feb. If they don’t then um CLA will essentially they hone 100% as as it is. If they actually pay they get 43 million US. Market cap is for CLA’s I don’t know what is it Trav JD have you got it there? >> 60 million >> Australian. >> Yes. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So the play the play here is like it’s always been a good project. I think anyone disputes that it’s a good project. Um to Senko and they read the report. But we know that they’re a pretty good operation and they do things well. 27 uh6 um initial capex um first 10 years above 1% gold’s about.5 g per ton and then you just got optionality after year 10. They ran it at a 35 year mine life but they’ve got another deposit that it sits around that the government owns that sur and their deposit surrounds it that’s sort of got 1 g gold apparently from historicals and 1% copper. good chance that they use that. They got another exploration project couple hundred meters down the road plus they can do some extra drilling and things like that. But the first 10 years of this project underpins it. Uh they say that they got 12 term sheets. Grant Samuel’s just been appointed to help do their financing. And probably the biggest and most important thing this becomes a buyer if their consultant Bon Davis who is currently there consulting them on financing becomes the managing director. So, if you know Bon Davis, go and tell him to jump on board and then this stock becomes a buyer. >> I um >> that’s my pitch. >> I’ve never seen a a a retail punter just be so so active like you are, Stefan, in in in moving um moving management in the right direction. You know, I just I just >> it’s not it’s this is a pretty unique stock. So, there’s a lot of retail guys that um own a lot of it. uh there’s not it doesn’t have a whole lot of intos involved and there’s probably 10 15 20% of the company um that that that speaks some in the UK some in Australia um they’re all aligned they want to see the best thing and I think they’re just hoping to get you know someone like someone that actually knows how to get a deal done um running this company um and that’s what it’s lacking there all the pieces of the puzzle are there just waiting for that last that last person that can actually finalize was the deal. >> Well, you would be >> um should should we mention Silver Corp um are in there for about 9 and a half to 10% now. Um they originally put an offer in about 3 years ago for I think it was sort of about 50 60 million market cap and it it didn’t end up getting up, but they’re still sitting there in the background. >> Yeah. Yeah. Were you were you underwhelmed at some of the uh the the updated feasibility study metrics? like were they do they maybe you know were there maybe parts of that that you know disappointed your expectations? >> I think one thing you got to you remember about this company is um the guy the guy that runs it the technical person Peter Hume who knows his stuff and really really good at the mining and um controlling the local community. The one negative about CLA that they’ve all always had is also the positive. So, they’ve all always prioritized the local community. Um, Filipino, you know, Filipino mining’s been something that’s been a bit of a negative um or seen as a negative for a while. They’re 16th on the Frasers Institute or whatever it is above WA on the recent um um polling for that. So, I think it’s turning. They’ve got a government that seems somewhat positive for mining. These guys have done everything by the book at the local community level. And I think that kind of that’s part of the re like cuz they they’ve actually their permit can go to 4.5 million tons processing a year. They’ve got it at 2.2 to start and then they ramp up slowly for 2.6 and then they run a vertical shaft in from year 3 to 7 for about another $120 million worth of sustaining capex that they fund from the c. And all of that is about messaging to the local community that hey we’re doing this by the book. or not trying to, you know, run a huge open pit. If you read the feasibility, they’ve got something like, I don’t know, I think it’s a big chunk of copper or that they when they’re moving the roads around that’s worth, I don’t know, 10 15, you’d have to have a look, 10 15 million bucks that they say, “Oh, look, we got optionality. We might be able to run that through the mill, but you know, we’re not going to. Um, we’ll see what happens.” So, I think everything’s kind of messaging to get funding from the wealth fund. Um, and they won’t invest in anything that doesn’t tick all of the, you know, ESG type boxes. Um, the the head of the Filipino Wealth Fund wrote a white paper about this project. I can’t see him not investing in it. >> Do you think if they don’t get the the cash for the the 40% stake, like how do you balance that with >> the 60% the 60% stakes? Yeah. >> Yes. Exactly. Does that not fly in the face of of their stunning 16th% placing in the Fraser Institute, you know? >> Well, that’s exactly right. Like it if so Marcos appointed um Yoel, who was the head of the wealth fund, they want to promote mining in the Philippines. At the same time, they got a message to the people that don’t want to do mining that when we do mining, it’s done properly. Tailing dam. Um I don’t I’m not a mining engineer, but something about paste feels good, I’m assuming. Um they do they’ve ticked every single box from the local community and the environmental standards point of view. Um that’s why they’re investing in it and it’s a good project. Like it genuinely is a good project and it should get up. Um I just can’t see the head of the world fund that was appointed by the president of the Philippines who is only investing in one mining p project in the Philippines and has written a white paper doesn’t invest in this thing. like an idiot. >> Do you think the outcome for for CLA is just a Chinese takeout? >> If if there is Chinese that want there is Chinese that want if they get a if they can get a MD that you know looks after shareholders and not the problem is that they look >> the guys that run it at the moment and hold the most power and it probably look after the local community which like I said it’s a good thing but at some point you want to put the shareholders first. So yeah, I think at some point probably a Chinese company come and take it out. The Chinese companies probably want to work with the wealth fund and kind of derisk it if the wealth fund are involved. It’s less likely that the government’s I don’t know maybe I I I think it’s a good thing having the wealth fund in there for some equity. And at the moment they’ve applied for another US debt. I can’t see them giving 76 million debt to this project and not at some point, you know, potentially converting it to equity. >> I think I don’t know. >> I think it’s a it’s a sort of company you like underestimate, underestimate, underestimate because they consistently let you down, let you down, let you down until all of a sudden some milestone is achieved and then all of a sudden you’re like, “Oh, hang on. these things actually like >> they t they’ve ticked a lot of stuff like to get to get 10 million US from a wealth fund the country’s wealth fund to fund a DFS that a seno did it’s pretty impressive when your market cap at the time was Australian 20 or $25 million like and so it clearly ticked the boxes for the wealth fund to actually want to go and um fund this thing but no you know the exactly what you said like they released the DFS And you know the the the marketing of it and the way they presented it was just horrible. They the the board doesn’t have experience in you know running a listed entity. So there’s some they’ve always just promoted the project and that’s been run well. If they can get you know a good MD on which it sounds like there’s a fair bit of fair few shareholders that are pushing for this. If that can happen, then changes the company completely. There’s one appointment away from this thing um you know getting to no reason it can’t get 5 cents plus. I mean the MPV on it is I don’t know a billion US or something silly like that but it’s kind of irrelevant. It’s just you know because it’s only the first 10 years that’s really important and then there’s optionality after that. >> Yeah. Some some low hanging fruit and a couple of catalysts which can go one way or the other in the next six months. Yep. Yep. >> I like the pitch, mate. But that’s the pitch anyway. Yeah. Did I was I was I negative enough at the start to make it look that I’m that I’m not bullshitting. Do I do I need some rocket emojis somewhere? >> Brutal honesty, mate. Love it. Expect nothing else from you. >> Oh, good day guys. How are you? >> How are you, mate? >> Going well, mate. >> Uh cheers for the uh ad. Um well, I’m looking at a silver play. So, it is Black Bear, >> which isn’t a good name, but we’re looking at BKB. So, what they’ve done, they’ve kind of acquired a new project. Um, it’s a restart play. So, it’s a silver producer in Texas. So, their flagship asset, it’s called Shaft. Um, they’ve had part production. It was last running in 2012 2013 when the silver price fell to about $18 per ounce. Um so their resource it’s a foreign estimate what they’ve got left of about 18 million ounces at $289 g per ton um which could probably be converted to chalk with a bit more drilling. So the opportunity here, so they’ve just bought it for about 15 million O. Uh I think they raised about $30 million to get this project, do a bit of drilling, and I think they’re engaging with a engineering firm for a operational restart. Uh that’s called Oen Co. I think. Um so they’re looking at about 150, sorry, 1,500 tons per day um restart. So could get up to about 3 12 million ounces a year. Um but simple conventional flow sheet strong recoveries about 80 to 85%. Um low capital intensity so existing infrastructure. So they spent about oh $150 million on this the last company. So they got it for a steel for 15 mil with a bit of silver left over. So they got about six or seven years worth of uh production there. And they’ve also got a project in Nevada, the Battle Mountain District. I think they got about a mill million ounces there. I don’t see them doing much with that project, but um >> this is the old this is the old James Bay Minerals and then they they bought this and re renamed, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> What’s the restart cap? >> Oh, so so they’re doing a uh a study at the moment with uh that >> doing a restart. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. So we don’t have a number on that one yet. >> No. So, you know, it’s probably going to be, you know, 6 to 12 months before we get a number on it. But I mean, it’s only 130, you know, million market cap at the moment. You know, it’s only got 150 mil shares. Um, you know, if they do get into production, you know, 18 24 months and the silver price is still where it is now. So that’d be about 100 Aussie. You know, they’re spitting out about, you know, close to 300 or 400 million Aussie a year and they’re valued at, you know, 130. So, you know, for a kind of midterm play, um I kind of see a little bit of value there. >> Yep. I know absolutely nothing about this project. And um >> I like the sound of 300 to 4.8 million bucks a year. That’s that’s pretty appealing. the the stock’s been about as volatile as well or >> maybe a bit less volatile than the silver price lately as expected. >> Yeah, >> I’ll see if the um wait until the um the uh the report comes out and re I guess look at it then. But yeah, it could be a potential um you know, cheap silver player if silver continues its um >> bull run. Yeah. >> Given it’s in the in the States, has it actually got a does it sit on a mining permit? Uh yeah. Yeah. I’ll just go back through some notes. So >> mate, being in the states is a good thing these days, don’t you? Temp >> um yeah, they got existing power, water, um all that all that um done. So yeah, the mining permit should say can’t give you that answer right now. >> Yeah, that’s yeah, that’s that’s one to look into. I’m uh yet to be convinced that all the positive talk from the US is actually going to materialize into stuff coming out the end of a plant. But >> I can actually see I can see that on the on the the map there where this project is like it it straddles the border between Mexico and Texas, mate. This is like right next to the wall. >> It’s right next to the wall. You can just group your capex together with the wall. >> No, thanks guys for letting us pitch in. >> No, thanks for thanks for dialing in mate. It’ be one for us to do some homework on. >> Yeah, that’s on the radar now. Thank you very much mate. Um, Tommy Warick is up, so please by all means unmute yourself now, mate. >> Are you guys hearing me? >> Yeah. >> Loud and clear, mate. Calling in from Cape Town. >> Sorry. Yeah, I’m at the 121 here on Wi-Fi, so it might be a bit unreliable. So, >> Oh, I I’ll blame I’ll blame the conference if that’s the case. Yeah, it’s 121’s fault, not yours. >> Yeah, exactly. So, uh yeah, I still a bit out of the loop, as you guys know. I’ve been on the road for a few weeks, so >> Yeah. Um, yeah. I mean, has anyone got a question maybe about we or something like that? >> Mate, I’ I’d love to hear if if you’ve disclosed, I know you’ve posted the odd thing, but what’s stuck out from your trip so far? >> Um, well, I fell in love with South America since Quint Turbo was teasing me about eating steaks, but um, genuinely genuinely really loved it. And, um, you know, Argentina is just such a wonderful place and it has tier one geology. So that that was my big takeaway there. Um >> Buer is a nice city. >> We saw the hit. Oh, >> it’s unbelievable. Mendoza as well. As someone you know interested in mountains, you can sit there and then in Mendoza and just look at 6,000 meter peaks and Mal was beautiful. >> What a dream. Um but yeah and then um I did go to and was one of the one of the stocks who spoke about the potty a few weeks ago and then they put out a 360 m hit at 7. So you know it was very pleasing that all came together >> special. Um, >> wow. >> Yeah, I’m looking across the room. I’m seeing higher down. He’s um he’s about to relift an Namibian gold player called Onway Medals. That’s probably worth a look for everyone. I mean, anything, you know, higher higher down has the mightest touch. Um, after Yeah. two or three exits. Um, last one was a Cino. >> Oh, yeah. Also also Namibian. That was also Namibian Gold, wasn’t it? >> Yeah. Gold. >> Yeah. He he’s got two players in the media at the moment. One’s a proper play. It’s it’s good. It’s interesting. We’re in a proper bull market, right? So, it doesn’t really matter. Um it’s large tiny low grade. Um I think it’s called Forex. And then the one I am in the old way. They’re recapping Great West, I think, was the ticket. >> Yeah. >> Um so, yeah, we was awesome. The um the big takeaway there was um with the pits the pits we know about um 170,000 per atom. But what’s exciting is what’s coming out of the underground. They keep on getting good keeps down there. And you know if if you if you do a modest underground operation, let’s call it 50,000 ounces per atom additional, you’re looking at 230 there. So it means we will be stepping right into that sort of you you know band can type competitor. Um, so yeah, the little bat keeps on battling keeps on surprising. Um, you know, I was looking at the core visible gold purite arsenal, you know, it’s it’s beautiful for >> I’m licking my lips for another takeover battle, >> mate. It’s Namibia. Just go to the Chinese. >> Don’t be so. >> Yeah, exactly. And there’s there’s a lot of there’s a lot of suitors in that sort of space now because all all the assets particularly African developers have all been mopped up slowly, you know, kind of got left at the altar. So, um, yeah, having fun. I’m getting tired though. I want to go home. >> What’s the What’s the temperature like in in Cape Town, mate? Are people up and about? >> It’s a bit It was nice yesterday. I walked up the Table Mountain. Um, that was beautiful. 25 degrees today. Must be in the 20s. A bit rainy, but that’s normal for this time of year in Cape Town. >> You know, there’s there’s an old tin mine up on um Table Mountain there, isn’t there, JD? Like >> I did not know that. >> Yeah. >> Really? >> Yeah. Your dad pointed out to me >> pointing down the hill or on the top? >> Not at the top, but like on the back side. >> On the side. >> Yeah. >> Interesting. >> Yeah. Little little old tin mine there. Historical. >> Amazing. Amazing. I might have to face it. >> It’s so beautiful. >> I’m pretty sure that’s right. Um yeah. Anyway, I it is it is beautiful. I um I have a confession. I didn’t make it to the top of Table Mountain last year, so my fitness just wasn’t up to scratch. I >> was hungry. >> The cable car was down. >> Yeah, it was the pier, but the Yeah, the cable car was down. So, a lot of people were disappointed, but I I went there for the workout anyway, so I was happy just to your club. >> Yeah, bit of a workout. I like it. Thanks for calling in, Tommy. It’s always great to to chat and hear how you’re seeing the world, mate. >> If you’re keen to pitch a stock, just request speaker and come up and um yeah, pitch. >> I got one. >> Yes. Who have we got? >> Uh the hot copper troglodite that’s been rebranded to the high conviction trogodite out of concern uh that hot copper might sue me. Um >> well, it’s great to have you on, mate. What’s the idea? um GRE or Green Tech Metals. >> Yeah, >> it’s um it’s bit of an open secret at this point, but >> um you know, they’re got 24 million tons nonjork or sorry, I beg upon historical J. Um they’re 24 million tons at 2.9 g per ton uh for 4 PGE for 2.2 million ounces. um trading at I think like a 30 mil market cap at close today. >> Yeah, that’s right. >> Uh >> up 20% today. >> Yeah, but it in saying that I mean compare it to Chalice, right? This could be the next Chalice. They’re at 800 mil market cap and also the team leading it is like pretty pretty much second to none. Uh, I just had their deck off, but there there are some heavy hitters. There’s You got Simon Kidston as the chairman who sold Gen X for 1.2 billion. You got Tom Redcliffe, who’s the uh the current non-exec director of West Coast Silver, which has been putting out some pretty bonanza grades as well. uh Steven Murphy who is the current MD of CZR um which is I mean a nice cashback shell uh and then you got Kevin Frost who’s uh the technical advisor but uh for for Talis as well so I mean it’s in WA way up north. >> Gotcha. Is this just out of curiosity? This is the first time I’m looking at this project. I don’t know much about it at all, but I can see the deal. It looks like the typical kind of crazy deal where you buy 70% and then the other 30%’s free carried. They didn’t if it’s the CZR guy. Is this Did they buy this off Creasy is a Crey deal or is it just a crazy analog lookike deal structure? >> Uh, not sure. >> I don’t know. Um, yeah, sorry. >> Yeah, Alien Metals is the vendor. Who the who is that? >> I mean, and their pick is UFO. >> Oh, that’s a that’s a that’s a buy on that alone. >> I mean, yeah, that’s that’s really all I’ve got. I don’t have um >> Yeah, >> I don’t have a bone in it. But if you if you compare it to like >> price of platinum, price of palladium, and then look at how well Palace is doing, it’s definitely one for the radar. Yep. Yeah. >> I’ve never seen a PGM presentation in the last five years that didn’t compare themselves with Chalice. >> Yeah. I think you have to accept that Chalice’s market cap is Yeah. Just it is what it is. But like trying to trying to match it just kind of like impossible, you know. >> No, it’s a fair shout. >> Yeah. Um but yeah, the the the Australian kind of PGM projects are are having a having their moment, you know, like yeah, things things that have been on love for a while. That was that podium minerals market cap now. And then that that Terra Metals had a had a discovery the other day. >> They did. They’ve been flying. I mean, Mets again like the the thing to always have a a good grasp on. You know, you can say the same for Chalicees. As for green tech here, I’ve got I’ve got no idea. Like Trev, just getting up to speed on this one. >> You said it was an open secret uh high conviction chocolate diet, but but this was um this was not very open secret to me. I had literally no idea about this. >> Uh you got to go through my following list then. >> I I do. I absolutely do. >> Yeah, you you rais a great point there. >> Okay, so the project’s kind of southeast of Andover, south of Karatha. >> Good morning. Hey mate. >> Hey John. >> Yeah, good. Good. >> How are you? >> Very well. >> Going well mate. What’s your idea? >> Well, I just wanted to pick up on what was just been said there because I thought it’s kind of interesting. Um, you guys not heard of the UFO company? No. >> Um, it’s actually an LSE. >> No. >> It’s a t tiny market cap company. It’s been knocking around for about 5 years or so. Um, I think they they kind of took off a little bit um 3 four years ago. Uh it was a couple of um big investments were made by I think William Middle Coupe I see I’m sure end of the show anyway. >> Yeah. Okay. Gotcha. So UFO is Alien Metals which was the >> Yeah. UFO is a ticker London listed Alien Metals. They’re the vendor. >> I had no idea about this one. Yeah. >> I’ve got another one for you boys when you’re uh looking for >> Yeah. Let’s go. >> The quiet moment. >> Tell me. Tell me to >> All right. So, I got a bit of a dark horse for you, but it’s a dark horse that suddenly became less dark in the last week. >> So, it’s a company called Lichfield Minerals. >> Yeah. >> Um LMS. >> They got a they got a LMS. That’s the one. So, they got a project in Northern Territory. Um they’ve had some pretty big copper hits in some of the thicker sections of the geology. So, um, think 100 meter at 0.9 plus 1% zinc. Um, there’s just a lot of smoke. Um, there’s a lot of mineralization. They’re they’re work they’re trying to work it out. Um, the MD, there’s a pretty good guy. It’s been floating around hot copper and um, that for the last 20 years who I’ve banted with back and forth over the years. Um, but besides these these big intersections and a lot of smoke and they’ve got some targets, >> but the biggest thing that’s happened in probably the last week is uh uh BHP just announced their Explorer program for this year and only two ASX listed mining companies got the gong for the Explorer program. One of them was Lichfield. So BHP tend to do their due diligence before they give away half a million US dollars for Nicks. Um, and I just thought it was very interesting that whilst I like the smoke and think they might be on to something, um, I just thought it was very interesting that BHP also think the same thing. >> I wish I wish you had pointed out before before the BHP explore appointment twin, but you know. >> Well, you should find me. I’ve been tweeting about it for a while. Yeah, >> but they rocketed in October of last year. So they they went from about 15 cents to nearly 80 cents, >> 70 plus cents. >> Yeah, they’ve been floating about. They did a they did a cap raise at 60. They’re ra 6 million at 60. They’ve they’ve been pretty pretty tight ship when it comes to dollars in the ground. Um MD’s very salt of the earth. Go out there, walk the ground, drill holes, organize stuff. big. So big percentage of spend goes into the ground. Um but they’ve got some it’s one of those plays. It’s a it’s a bit it’s hard to explain but um the historic was about the target was about 25 million tons of 1% but that was based off just straight vertical holes sort of higgledy through the area. And it’s the first time that someone’s actually done the proper aeromag and they’ve got some high semens targets. They’ve they’ve already hit very wide grade copper zinc. So it is mineralized. It is big. Um they’ve now got to spend the next six months actually targeting it on the the good stuff. Um but yeah, it could just be one to watch given that uh I thought they were good, but uh the fact that BHP backed them as well, I think it’s probably um gives them a little bit more credibility. >> I um Yeah. No, it’s interesting. I’d love to know the relative performance of a lot of these um explore uh picks post them be becoming explore pics. I know the timeline like for them to actually come come through is a long time, but it feels like there’s often a bit of a bit of, you know, heat around them post announcement and then then there’s the you know the the typical waiting for progress and the long duration of progress when it comes to expiration stuff, but we’ll keep watching it closely, mate. >> Yeah, worth watch. >> Doing a bunch of 100 me stepouts. Kind of interesting. >> Yeah. John John Doyle, are you still there? Sorry, mate. My I didn’t realize I’d gone. Yeah, I was chatting away and no one lost my mic. >> What did we miss? >> Sorry, guys. Yeah. So, I was just I was basically interested in just in that that area around um the the previous we’re talking about the UFO uh AIM listed company which its assets have just been kind of hived off and you guys never really talk about it. Um but you’ve got you’ve got this West Coast silver company that’s emerged with this uh very high-grade silver deposit. UFO. What the the key bit they they they managed to bring these licenses together. There was some sort of a dispute the previous owners back 25 years ago and these licenses were just sort of uh unworkable because of this dispute. But um a geologist in the UK brought these two back together and made opened up that area. Uh I’m not quite sure how big how potentially valuable that deposit is. Obviously, the grades are kind of off the dial. Um, I think they they reported 37,000 ounces per gram, sorry, per ton um is of silver last week, which uh it’s quite something. Anyway, um that’s interesting. But then just sitting next to it, you’ve got the the money money um deposit or it’s a a historic J um a very historic resource there of PMGs. >> Yep. >> No drilling there for years. I think they’re just about to start on that. Um but that’s worth a look at. And then obviously you’ve got the Arteimus Resources old Radio Hill plant probably 20 30ks away. So that plant’s been dormant for many years. Um, and I think that they’re looking at the possibility of sort of restarting that. So that could create quite a little hub for these sort of little outlier companies with small smallish deposits, but obviously in this metal environment quite interesting. And then the other one I wanted to mention was Cobre. >> Yeah. >> Um, I think what they’re obviously the BPA Explore uh recipient uh >> yeah, >> two or three years ago. um or two years ago. I think this Insichu copper recovery thing is quite interesting. I’ve been I’m an investor in Tiko copper. >> Yeah. >> Over in the US, the Florence mine and they seem to be absolutely flying. Um straight to copper cathode, which is just a genius idea. Obviously, obviously takes place with uranium and this insitu recovery, but >> I just think that’s that Cobra project’s potentially one to watch. >> Yeah. But Cobra just overnight have done a a $50 million raising and they’ve bought a producing asset in in in South America. So that kind of changes the the the picture quite a bit, doesn’t it? >> Well, I was wondering I noticed it. It’s a copper cathode producer. I wasn’t quite sure if there was a link there. >> I haven’t looked too closely, but the >> the I haven’t seen the docs that have that have kind of come out, but >> just the Fed article. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> The model the model kind of changes a bit, but >> some some interesting backing. 50 million is a decent old race to do. So, >> kind of see. >> Yeah. They’ve got I think they’ve got some big names on it, haven’t they, backing it. Traffic and >> Yeah, Black Rock there as well. >> Yeah. Interesting. There were I think that’s definitely a company to watch. It’s still quite a low market cap. Um and the the the you know the deposits sort of in the vicinity. You’ve obviously got uh Sandfire, you’ve got Kacow further up 50ks away. You know that that area is definitely fascinating. I know you guys have got some interest in that. And then the other one I think it’s sort of, you know, more of an underrated overrated one is has got to be Greatland. Um I I just I just think the Australian market completely underestimates what’s going on there. >> Um >> and you’re kind of seeing it. >> Yeah. >> You know, come emerging through and through. It’s it’s fascinating. I don’t know if you guys are following the West Dome Deeps discovery. >> Yeah. >> To be fair, it’s a $9 billion company. >> It’s it is a big like Yeah. But it it’s also like they the exploration that they do have. I keep hearing this over and over from various drillers is um they got they’ve got they’ve got a lot of stuff. They got a lot of options that they can they can leverage. Not just the West Deeps, not not just Havon, but there’s a there’s a lot that they inherited that can can come into the >> their mind plan that just you know there that the work wasn’t done. >> I think it’s in I think it’s incredibly exciting. I I agree with you, John. I I do think I mean maybe London Gold has has pushed back on what the upper limit of a single asset producer can be valued at, but at the end of the day it’s a still a single asset producer and you’ve got a bit of capex that needs to go into the to the ground to get heavier on online in in the next few years. And I think the market’s got very comfortable with the the quote unquote production gap that they were going to have before that happens and everything. But yeah, >> there’s a few um targets sitting around um Tela which there’s one called Desert’s Revenge and it’s just it’s just amazing how unloved that that whole area was. It seems that New Crest were just just totally just ignored it, you know, just completely I think they were crying out for capex, those guys working at telephone just didn’t get anything and it shows, you know, and it’s just there’s a lot there’s a lot going on. There’s a lot of opportunity there. >> It is. Um, it’s wicked to see to be honest. Like when when the share price finally surpasses the the high of of 21, it’ll just be such a cool moment. >> Yeah, totally. Yeah. Any I think this is a great idea, guys. Um, so keep it going. I think it’s good to have the opportunity to >> to check in. >> Thanks, mate. Thanks for thanks for standing up. >> Appreciate that. We’ve got a Jobson growth on who we haven’t heard from yet. Mate, if you wanted to um say anything. >> Good day, guys. Has anyone pitched to you DEA yet? >> No. >> Just jumped on. >> I’m so excited by this. >> I’m so keen to hear this. >> Yeah. I keep looking at this and I can’t make sense of a lot of it, but I’d love to hear the other side of things. >> I mean, it’s 150 mil market cap, right? >> Y >> and it has 800 million tons of 75% nickelite in the ground. >> Yep. >> You have Mitsubishi and Sumatr paying for the DFS earning a 50% stake in the project by spending the $100 million to do that. Yep. >> It’s a 40 40 year plus mine life asset and the DFS at a $20,000 nickel price and which is obviously higher than we are today, but a lower cobalt price than we are today. Had an $800 million EBIT D per year for four years. So this to me seems materially undervalued for what the project is going to output. I mean you do a you know MPV model and after year 15 you’re not really adding much. just for the the size of this asset and the location of the asset, the partners that they have like the partners have built highly successful nickel laterite HP power plants in the Philippines um especially with Sun Turbo. So, um I think that issues we’ve seen in other nickelite projects in Australia aren’t really going to be as big of a problem here. Um so yeah, I just for me I don’t understand $150 million for this project. I mean you they obviously have to spend the capex but obviously they’ve now got the not got but they have a on the table the US government the Australian government pitching in a billion dollars worth of loans to get this up and going. So, >> I think the I think the equity markets don’t they don’t like >> they just there’s a there’s a a belief that you Yeah, we’re not going to see a HPAL built in Western Australia anytime soon when when the the latter nickel laterite we got here is half the grade of of everything in Indonesia or the Philippines or whatever and um and and that stuff there is from surface and then that so it kind of takes the corporate activity to overwhelm the equity market. So if you know if like you’ve got the the progress from from Sumitomo etc moving things forward and and telling the equity markets what they really think then then that that’s great. I um I’ve I’ve been in the category of like I just disbelief to be fair but that’s my own you know cynicism that can get in the way. I I think I was just going to say if you comp it with Centurus which is like one of the go-to you know other undeveloped ala sulfide project in in Brazil our day has kind of outperformed if you look at like the last few months you know when they they both reacted well to the uptick in in nickel price where nickel went from call it 15 to to 18,000 a ton >> y >> and they both reacted well but then our day held on on the back of the you know the the extra funding or non-binding funding that that could come through. So, I think I think it kind of shows there is a bit of receptiveness to it. You’re just in arguably the most hated commodity out there, >> which is probably the right time to be looking at stuff. >> I love the contrarian streak about it. Totally. >> We We were talking about we were talking about punting on a a nickel laterite thing today, but >> yeah, I mean, this is obviously hated as you can tell. It was a gold player. would be, you know, >> um, obviously Nickel Industries, I’m not going to pitch that because people know about it, but but that’s an amazing business. That’s that like, >> you know, the the new ENC plant they’re about to restart, that’s going to like completely change that business in terms of it’s able to go way up the value chain in nickel. It’s not just a Pion producer. It’s actually producing nickel cathodes. It’s that’s going to become >> a game changer for them. and being a integrated minor processor provider like that that that’s an amazing business. Um >> I’m not sure if you’ve kept tabs on it but the the news coming out of Indonesia the last couple weeks has been pretty gnarly like >> yeah um the the way the MD from Nickel Industries was talking about it is a lot of the cuts are going to come from the non-integrated miners. So people like Nickel Industries and people who have mines plus HPL plants aren’t going to be as affected. Um, and it’s almost good for them in a way because it’s going to, you know, the extra ore that they do sell to the other HPL producers is a beneficiary to them because it’s going to increase the price of the actual ore. Don’t know if you had a different take on that. >> Yeah. Uh, I mean, looking broadly across, you see what’s happened with the the Martabe mine that um, you know, it looks like it’s going to be plucked off the the Hong Kong listed company that that owns it. And the the whole the whole exchange dipped 8 n 10% last week. It’s very very kind of authoritarian in in nature. Hundreds of permits being being pulled up. it’s not what exactly um instills confidence and and I think if you you step back from that again I think the the news of the the royalty and regulatory regime slowly shifting in Indonesia when went a bit underweight maybe six six months ago maybe 12 months ago when it first sort of started changing I think over time that plays out in addition to in in addition to the grades slowly wearing away and the um you know the the distance from the mill and all this sort of increasing. I think um I think that all kind of bodess well for your idea pick to be honest. >> Yeah. Um the only other one that was interesting in the nickel space, you guys may know about it, you may not. It’s called London Metals. >> Yep, we know it. >> Um it you know it’s right in the middle of the >> Is it nickel or gold now though? >> Either both one. Um, yeah, it’s just interesting that it’s right in the middle of the Sives Gold Field and you know, they’ve got this huge 600 m long magnetic anomaly that the WA government’s given the grant to drill for. 2ks between Goldfields Apolloago and the Victory Defiance and they were what 2 million ounce mines and they obviously have the permitted um nickel sulfide mine and another one that’s not permitted but it could be restarted and they obviously need Cambalda restart which is obviously probably never going to happen. So um >> and how how refreshing is it having a nickel stock pitched? >> Yeah, I’ve had this in ages. We can chuck life zone in the mix if we’re going to if we’re going to name the the handful of projects that maybe BHB selling out’s got to be the the ultimate contra signal. >> Yeah, we’ll see. >> Anyway, that one’s interesting. Just the fact it’s $60 million. They’re going to make $40 million from their current gold. >> Um Lady Herel mine, which is only small, but they’re mining that with Ives processing it. >> Yeah. >> And they have some other options. So, it’s almost trading at um sort of say 60 70 80% of the cash they’re going to generate from that. So, >> yeah. Yeah. >> Um yeah, not not super compelling, but interesting. Just talking nickel. Yeah. Anyway, >> they’re my three nickel ideas. >> I like your work, mate. Thank you very much for um for pitching and coming and sharing them. We’ve got Josh Baker on the spaces now. Josh, what do you want to pitch? Sorry for my technical difficulties. I’m not sure what happened. But um I have a few different things I can talk about, but I’ll probably start with Yeah. one that’s probably going to be >> bit more interesting for a broader audience. But um so mega medals, I think it’s one I’ve talked about before, but I’ve actually started buying those back. >> Yeah. >> On this dip because I’ve sort of been a seller from like 3 to 30 cents. >> Yeah. Oh, wow. It’s it’s come down a lot. So yeah, I can see. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. So I think quarterly sort of pretty much I had some small issue that probably slowed them down for actually beating top end of guidance. >> Yeah. >> Which was for 10,000 in that period. But I think production ramp ups pretty much all going to plan. Good racks good grade reconciliation as well which is usually what kills all these guys cuz they don’t do good resource models. Um probably cash flow doesn’t look as good as what people thought. But um if anyone speaks to to Tim he’s running a gold bullion strategy. So he’s a bullion bank now. >> Yeah, >> you can think of it as that. So a version of Tribune >> or Tribute or whatever it’s called. Um but I think what’s interesting is is they’ve sort of been a lot more specific on running a second underground at Turnbury as well which will start development work by Vidier because they’ll use the first or the central pit as an underground portal for that. Uh it’s interesting. Well, the the good part why it’s interesting. I’ll start with the cynical version is you run two undergrounds just in case Andy well doesn’t stack up. So that’s what the cynical take is. Uh the more interesting take or the positive take is that running two undergrounds was never in the revised DFS for the refurbishment. It was always part of the bigger DFS they did maybe 22 or 23 where they’d run a 1 million ton per mill. So I think what this is indicating is is they’re already starting the uh the work on the expansion plan. Um so for anyone who sort of talked to Tim or sort of followed the company there was always that scope to sort of go back to that level post a refer. >> Yeah. >> Um so obviously they never really talked about as an expansion or have a study you know in any detail but they’re starting that one thing I think is indicative of them progressing that. So you know when you start talking 1 million ton peranom from that 6 to 650 you might actually in you know who knows when the timing is but that’s how you sort of get this mining operation up to that 100,000 ounce per mark. So if you say in 18 months, 24 months, instead of maybe peaking out at 75, 80,000, they can then run 100 to undergrounds feeding three two and a half to three and a half gram all blended. Um probably low to mid all in cost at 2 and a half into spot gold because they’re fully unhedged equity funded the lot. Um you’ve got a case there where that’s probably now a $1.5 billion company if it all goes to plan. So you’d expect it starts to follow the footsteps of like Ora and Catalyst you know when they came on and they were sub 100,000 ounce we grow to 100 we go to 150 etc. You probably got a similar story that will start to evolve over the course of this year with mega and it can all be internally funded in theory. Yeah, the I I I agree with your like your assessment of the quarterly numbers because I remember reading them and thinking I don’t understand why they’re being punished for this. It seemed pretty positive. The um the expansion thesis sounds interesting and I reckon you’re probably on the money there. The bit that I haven’t done work on, but I know you would have, Josh, is like um your like the sugar hit they had from the the like um the open pits from surface at decent grade. How like how how what’s the duration that they’ll last and and what’s the you know the mine plan outlook beyond beyond their life? >> Yeah. So the pits I think they were just initially meant to be for the first year but you do generate a lot of stock piles out of them as well for blending purposes. >> Yeah. Uh so it depends on whether they reoptimize the pit to take advantage of the higher gold price. So that’s always the big unknown as well. Um but then you do have to make that transition to underground and their central pit and I think the northern or the southern pit. I always get the orientation of the pictures around the wrong way in my head. But I run dual portal on the turnary underground. So you can only do the pit for so long before it actually starts delaying your underground ounces. So I think it’ll end up just being a a cost cut off. You know, they’re ramping up annually now, so they are transitioning out of the open bit. So, I don’t know if there’s a lot of extra life in them at this point in time. >> I like it, mate. >> Just because it probably makes way more sense to go underground. >> How does M&A play into your thinking both on both sides of the equation? Them them them looking to to buy ounces or them as a target? >> Not about a target, but the guys are young and pretty hungry. I got the impression of the Empire Builders if they got the opportunity to do it. I’m just not sure what they would buy to do that um as well. So, it’s an ambition, but something that’s been pretty light on detail. >> Yeah, the one that gets thrown in the mix as a potential bolt-on with is um is great boulder. >> Yeah, maybe. I don’t know. I’m not sure that resource hangs together very well. I haven’t I haven’t heard a bad word said about the Davidsons. So, it’s a vote of confidence on that front. >> Yeah, I don’t get a lot of bad feedback from him as well. So, you know, you know a few people. I know a few people. It’s pretty small in WA, but you know, they’re apparently very disciplined operators and very tight on the uh the budget as well. a count for every dollar. And I guess you’re starting to see that in the results as well because it’s been arguably a fairly smooth restart and ramp up, which is not as common as in oak in gold at the moment or still >> better than uranium, mate. >> What What else have you got for us that that’s um in in your in your wheelhouse that you’re you’re pretty bullish on? >> Yeah, I’ve got something that’s a bit more punchy. I will preface it. I own a little bit of them and I bought them at a price significantly lower than now, but I did that because I wanted to make sure I pay attention, not miss the opportunity. And they typically raise through rights issues, so there’s no uh cheapies. Um, but this one is Lincoln Minerals. So, it’s kind of been forgotten about for a long time because they’re doing graphite, green iron, and all this stuff that doesn’t work very well or has way too much gapex for a junior. But they got full control of this Minim project which a very long time ago was getting drilled out for iron or by centrics and it sort of got lost in time for a bit because of a very laser focus on the iron or the biff unit. They were targeting for iron or exploration only but several holes sort of pierced through that formation and into a underlying some sedimentary style formation. And last year they went back and reassided those holes and one of them came back with a hit that was 29 1/2 m at8 copper, 7.5 lead, 1 n zinc with 9 g silver. So I had a discovery hole by accident that didn’t get assayed for about 10 plus years. Uh they’ve gone back and done some relogging of that area and found sniffs. It’s just not a lot of holes actually pierced through into that formation um in any meaningful way. So that discovery hole they call bud 192 there’s a large down dip extension or down dip hole u cuz bur cd30 um it had visual bite not economic grade but definitely a lot of smoke. So essentially what sort of happened is the guys and gals there have gone back done the work remapped the structure 7 plus days of structure multiple indications of this uh it’s not their mess there was a view aesthetics could be carbonate placement there’s a few different theories and not enough work done um or not enough sorry not enough drill holes to actually work it out um so that in itself is interesting because you got effectively a technical discovery, not yet an economic discovery, but absolute boatload of smoke to to follow up and find a fire behind. Um, what starts to make this even more interesting is is they’ve had a bit of change at the border management level. I think the main part here is is that had a the MDS one of those main moves new guy came in called Chris Wilox. So, replaced um the prior guy. So, mining engineer out, expirationist in. Uh Chris, I’m not sure if many people would be familiar because he’s pretty low key for having some good appointments, but before joining here, he’s working with private company called Discovery Co. Uh which was essentially the private version of DJI. So, Chris has spent a lot of time working for guys like Edsh. Um, so you got someone who’s pretty, you know, when I’ve cross checked with other people familiar with who have worked at Discovery Go, other ventures Chris has been involved with, um, everyone seems to have a pretty high opinion of him. And even just having the opportunity to chat to him and and understand how he would rethink exploration across this entire structure um, beyond what the prior team group wanted to do, which is just a couple of holes around that main discovery hole. So there’s a you know pretty good opportunity. There could be a major discovery uh in this project and headed up by someone who’s got probably going to do the job as good as anyone else you can ask. So yeah the positives on that I think the the risk got to be mindful of is they still don’t have landholder access and I don’t think that’s a there’s something wrong there. there’s cropping cycles and things like that that you got to manage and they kind of missed their window of opportunity late last year and you sort of got to wait until the end of this quarter. Um and that sort of push the time out probably don’t have enough money to do any serious expiration. So be mindful something like that might come uh about as well. Um cuz if you know some of the ideas and the approaches that you know Chris has talked about here and how you know the prior groups they they go about exploration going to do something a lot bigger that needs a lot more money. So just be mindful of that there as well. And um based on the uh update they did for their quarterly report they got to make sure they don’t click the wrong emails as well. So they lost almost 300 grand on a fishing scam. >> 200 recovered. That’s bad stuff. >> Oh, that’s >> so all their other projects, they’re going to like partner up, joint venture, and definitely heavily defocused and then everything’s just on this Mimbury project and the tenant package along there because there’s a lot of other sort of Yeah, it’s been very known for quite a long time. There’s a lot of copper potential, but no one’s really sat there doing a lot of it. So, it’s quite exciting because you’ve already got a head start and it’s more about does this delineate into something economic uh as well. So, it’s a sweet spot for someone who’s not a geo and doesn’t do ultra greenfield stuff. >> Uh thank thank you for the pitch, mate. I can’t get my head past the fishing scamping, but but I know that um that that doesn’t impact their capabilities when it comes to the rocks. >> Great. >> Better than you can click emails. I’ll be stoked. I think fingers crossed, mate. I like the idea. >> Last last um last joiner of the call for tonight. We’ve got HCL on the on the speaking stand who hasn’t spoken yet. >> Hi, good afternoon. I’ve got a >> Yeah, good afternoon. Sorry. Yeah, I’ve got a I got a few of them. I got I got three. So, I got Atomic Eagle uh to make you limited in like Zambia. So, yeah, close to the border with Zimbabwe. So, it’s it’s pretty good jurisdiction there now. uh it’s probably going to stay that same for at least for the next maybe seven years because of I think government’s going to stay in place and they’re very very much pro per promining. So that it looks like a good project. They’ve already got like 40 million tons sorry 40 million pounds of uranium and I think the exploration target um is about 100 million plus they already had like um it was one by gox Canadian firm linked out some sort of dispute with the Niger government. So they took over that mine and uh essentially they ended up going yeah just doing a reve uh reverse takeover with >> with atomic ego. So they’re running that project now. So that one’s that one’s pretty good. And I’ve got another one I think you guys mentioned in your newsletter today. Prospect resources in Zambia as well. >> Yeah, >> I reckon they’re pretty good takeover target for F quantum. >> Yeah, >> they have they were underwhelming to be honest with their news today considering the amount of drilling they’ve done there. They they haven’t really released anything sort of new that’s exciting, but I still think it’s a good good at $300 million considering like yeah right next to FQM. They’re probably going to end up taking it out. So that’s that’s pretty good to have. >> First Quantum’s got their First Quantum’s got their foot on that one, don’t they? But but the the good thing for >> Yeah. for Prospect is is they’re sort of spoiled for choice for which which you know there’s there’s options for which meal they feed. Is it barracks or is it First Quantums? and and that in itself I think incentivize First Quantum to make sure they put their foot on it and um I yeah I agree with your your thesis that’ll it’ll get taken out over time. >> Yeah, it does look like it’s going to be like first quantum just because of like I think Sentino is not it’s not I don’t think it’s like it’s probably like it’s not their best asset first quantum in the country. So I think they probably need the the uh the tons there. So yeah, it’s definitely look like they have to almost like if they’re going to stay there, they’re going to have to take it out. So yeah, and then the last one I’ve got is Gladiator Meadows. It’s in it’s in Canada. Um they spend a lot of money in drilling. So that’s that’s what I like in in Junior. So I think 50,000 meters. They’ve got a MRA coming in I think sometime this quarter and next quarter. They’ve been hitting pretty good grades. So like 92% copper from 2 mters. And it’s quite it’s quite a large project as well. the whole area seems to be like mineralized like 35ks in in Yukon. So, I reckon that one’s pretty good as well. >> Great great work, mate. I appreciate the um the pictures. I’ve I’ve got no special commentary on on on any of those. I didn’t Yeah. Like I didn’t even appreciate that Atomic Eagle had um had effectively picked up Goax’s project. Now I know. >> Yeah. the the performance of prospect kind of like you said despite despite not having >> outstanding drill results has been outstanding you know largely on the back of the of the copper price and gladiator medals I have literally never heard of so I’ll have to take a peek but 150 million market cap >> and yeah just edging higher over the past six months like every every other copper name out there >> yeah they’ve done they’ve done pretty well last year I think especially Glad I go up like 400% % 300%. But I still think there’s a long ways to go for them. Yeah. Thank you. >> I know I said you’d be the last one, mate, but um I’ve got to let Indie Nile up to um to pitch because we were I think we had tech issues for a moment there. >> Yeah. Yeah. Hi guys. Sorry. I hope the connection is okay and you can hear me. I’m in the middle of Nairobi, Kenya without Wi-Fi. So, uh hope you can still hear me well. >> We’ve got We’ve got your >> Of course, I want to >> Perfect. Uh, of course I want to pump my bags without any shame. So yeah, I would pitch Canyon Resources here. It’s a true tier one Bside asset sitting at the bottom of the cost curve in Cameron. And their project is called mini ma and they have a pretty decent resource which is I would say it’s exceptional actually in size like a billion tons and has a very low uh reactive silica and a high aluminina content and should lead that should lead to a$10 to $15 US premium and the near-term catalyst with a trial shipment is targeted for Q3 2026 six. So, initially they wanted to produce by Q2 already, but some Chinese uh build trains are running a bit late to be shipped. So, that’s a bit postponed now. Um, but yeah, I think it’s a nice way to play the probably substantially higher long-term copper price while aluminum substitution which needs quite a bunch of oxide. And they have like an crazy reserve rate. They have 51% aluminina and only like they have less than 2% silica which is very good and yeah mining operations are still scheduled to commence uh in February so uh um imminent and um yeah they effectively fully funded on paper. Uh so the actual flow of the remaining 170 million Australian dollars depends on the outcome of a March 9th meeting of some uh uh yeah some of the people that give the money but I’m pretty confident that will go through and that the mine will will produce for probably the next decades. So there’s there’s talk that Camra want to go from from 9% to 35% ownership interest in in the asset. Is that is that a red flag in in your mind or is that something that’s going to see them net a fair price? >> No, I think of course it depends on the price they’re getting, but um I think the shareholders um of the state of Cameron and Camra they are all aligned here. Also the um the company canyon they want to increase their their shareholding of the uh cam rail to to over 30%. So that would secure them with um the potential to actually expand their project. Um but before they they expand their project of course they want to be sure that they have decent logistics in place and that the uh also the camera rail is aligned um with them. So Cam is also um of course doing a lot of the uh transportation for the Chinese companies that are around. So um I think they just want to make sure that and everybody is aligned and that uh yeah they they have the the building blocks in place to really expand the project to uh yeah unlock the the true potential of this huge re resource size. >> I um I like your pick here. It’s it’s like I’m I’m I’m surprised the market cap is still what it is. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It’s crazy low. So, uh it came back recently a little bit, but uh yeah, let’s see. I think one of the very near-term catalysts is actually that um really all the fundings are uh are going through at the beginning of March and then uh yeah I think if if they if they can signal that the the Chinese loses that are that they are waiting for are actually shipped and that they are coming so they they they can start shipping in tier three and of course the start start of mining in February I think um yeah the catalyst this rich uh near-term future for them that could also lift the currently depressed stock price. >> Awesome. I I like it. It’s uh it’s one that through 2024 had like a fantastic kind of year and like you said, it sort of found that new level. So keen to see where it goes from here, mate. >> Thank you, sir. >> Interesting. Looking forward to that. >> Fingers crossed. >> Fingers crossed. Thanks so much, uh Indie. Thank you. Thank you to everyone who um who came on and pitched a stock today. I um yeah, I reckon that was really really rich. Great to hear people’s thoughts what where they’re putting, you know, their own money to work, where their bags are, and um I’ve got some research to do off the back end of it. But I’m going to shut this spaces down. And thank you so much everyone for um yeah, being forthcoming about your ideas. That’s uh that’s wicked. >> Cheers everyone. >> Bye. >> There we go mate. Something different, something a bit unusual. Hopefully you guys liked it out there and hopefully our partners liked it. Our awesome awesome partners that we have, Sanvic Ground Support, Focus, the platform by Market Tech, which you should check out right now. Intra links and last but not least, Exceed Capital. Go and check out their SP property trust. Hudoo money miners. >> Now remember, I’m an idiot. JD is an idiot. If you thought any of this was anything other than entertainment, you’re an idiot and you need to read our disclaimer.

Pitch Summary:
Reading International is undergoing a significant transformation, with a focus on improving its balance sheet and optimizing its real estate portfolio. The company has reduced its debt and extended maturities, eliminating insolvency risk. Strategic asset sales and potential developments, such as 44 Union Sq and Cinema 123, offer substantial value creation opportunities. The cinema business has become more structurally profitable, positioning Reading for sustainable cash flow generation in the coming years.

BSD Analysis:
Reading International’s strategic initiatives to reduce debt and optimize its asset portfolio are key drivers of its turnaround story. The company’s focus on high-value real estate developments and asset sales provides a clear path to unlocking significant value. The improved cost structure in its cinema operations, coupled with a favorable box office environment, enhances its profitability prospects. With no immediate debt maturities and ongoing asset optimization, Reading is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver long-term shareholder value.

Pitch Summary:
Zegona Communications is poised for significant value creation following the sale of a 30% stake in its fiberco to AXA, which is expected to lead to a capital return policy. The company has successfully executed its LBO strategy, generating substantial proceeds from fiber spin-offs. With ongoing consolidation in the Spanish telecom market, Zegona is well-positioned for further growth and potential exits. The anticipated financial update could act as a catalyst for the stock, which has already seen significant appreciation.

BSD Analysis:
Zegona’s strategic asset sales and focus on capital returns highlight its effective execution of the LBO model, creating substantial shareholder value. The company’s ability to navigate the competitive Spanish telecom market and capitalize on consolidation trends positions it for continued success. The potential monetization of additional assets, such as RANco and data centers, provides further upside potential. With a strong balance sheet and strategic acquisitions, Zegona is well-equipped to leverage market opportunities and deliver significant returns to shareholders.