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Sign up for STLLR's exclusive Gold Macro Newsletter at http://stllrgold.com/davidlin Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist at ...
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Right now you're literally b you're walking through a landmark. I think it's going to spark a hell of a move. I think it's going to it's such a tiny market too that I think it could it could really explode as I mentioned. >> So what do you think is going to happen now to Bitcoin? Chris Fermulan joins us once more. He's the chief market strategist at the technical traders.com. Markets are soaring. We'll talk about stocks, gold, Bitcoin, uh near all-time highs again for Bitcoin. What's next, Chris, welcome back to the show. >> Hey, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure. This is an interesting article that I like to start with. Maybe it'll set the tone for the conversation today. Maybe this is from CNBC. The bubble in people searching for AI bubble has burst. What that means for stocks. Retail investors fear of an AI bubble appear to have fallen off after spiking this summer. It could mean the stocks are further to balloon before they ultimately top out. So the bubble in searching for the bubble has popped. I know the authors try to be clever, but I understand what that means. people are no longer afraid or worried about a market bubble. And so potentially this is why we're seeing valuations at where they are. The S&P today uh as we're speaking on Monday the 6th is up about 40 basis points to 6,700 points. It's up more than a,000 points since last year. The NASDAQ's up uh 70 basis points. Importantly, gold, which we'll talk about, is up 2% every single time I speak to you, Chris. Gold is just soaring to new highs and it just doesn't stop. The train doesn't stop. It's almost at $4,000 now. It's at 39.87 is the latest price on my screen. Bitcoin, which we'll talk about, is $125,000 and um and crude oil is is still well relatively flat, 61, but we'll focus on uh the other asset classes today. Uh let's start with the stock market. I wonder if uh the movement in the stock market is an indicator uh for how the other asset classes are moving or maybe maybe they're moving independently for different reasons. But I'll take you I'll let you take a look at the S&P 500 for us. >> Sure. Yeah. Well, if we take a look at the charts there there's a lot going on. There's a lot of layers here and it's could be difficult for some people to grasp all the the layers that I kind of put on here. But when we look at the S&P 500, which is uh threatening new all-time highs here on the daily chart, which is on the right, uh you know, the market just is is going through this perfect wave right now where we're in a bullish environment. If we were to look at our 30-inut chart, like this is what I really like is these short-term charts tell us when we have specific setups in the market, David, for short-term emotions. And and so when we look at the short-term perspective, we have the stock market giving us this FOMO indicator. When people hit a certain threshold where a market has moved too far to the upside and they're not on board, then they hit a level where they're like, I just need to get in. And we usually see see it happen in waves. The stock market market participants are like a school of fish. And so we saw that about a week and a half ago and then the stock market sold off and took a a little bit of a nose dive. And that when we look at the daily chart, you can see that right over here. So the 30-inut chart allows us to zoom in on the close term, the near-term price action and the sentiment within the markets. Now, we did see the market go in this oversold condition. And the market is naturally always going from overbought with FOMO, people piling in at a high to a selloff that creates an oversold and they panic out. And so from that panic low, the market has moved up and we're we're hitting all-time highs again. And just knowing the sentiment is very important. And so right now, to answer your question, stocks continue to just tread higher. They continue to rally. NASDAQ at all-time highs again today. And the market is moving uh you know, just the way it should be. Just waves of fear of missing out and then buying. And right now, we're seeing kind of money move into pretty much all assets. We're in what I think is kind of a a little bit of a euphoric phase here in the stock market, especially in the precious metal space. And when we see everything piling in, it can it can warn obviously of some big trend reversal coming to an end because I was talking to a subscriber the other day and actually a few of them and they all said every single one of their gold mining ETFs or or sorry stocks are up over 100%. And of course we're long we're long equities we're long gold and the fact that everybody is is cleaning up in the space it it it feels like easy money when everybody is making a ton of money you got to be cautious. It's when you need to like take the blinders off and start wondering, you know, when will this take a bit of a pause or breather? And so that's what people need to be aware of. And I think the best comparison, which we can touch on if you want later, is a comparison with 2007. And I layer on a couple extra charts here that signal that we are really, really close to a capitulation high, kind of a blowoff top in the precious metals in the mining space in general. And uh usually that signals the end for the stock market. So, that's one thing we need to be aware of, but until then, you got to ride this market higher. >> Here's uh what I have to say to that. So, we'll get to your 2007 comparison in just a minute, but this is the first year of Trump's second term. Uh this is like, in other words, if you were to compare it to his first term, this is like 2017. And as you recall, 2017 was just the middle of a 4-year bull market. COVID happened, didn't count, but there was a V-shaped recovery, and it kept grinding higher. >> Yeah. And so my my argument is that maybe people saw this coming from a mile away where they were pricing in Trump's policies as being pro markets notwithstanding tariffs which have have have caused volatility but again we've recovered every single time there's a tariff announcement we've we recover from that. So maybe this is like 2017 and this is the beginning of another threeear cycle upwards. What do you think? It could be. It could be. But um I mean the thing is it doesn't really matter if it does or not. You got to stick with the trend. But my belief is what's going on with major cycles. Like there's a whole bunch of different things at play that we can layer in here. I think one of them is as you touched on with the opening paragraph, the whole AI bubble. And I think a good way to look at this, there's a few few layers. So I think the the stock market phase is is kind of right in this blowoff peak phase or this stage three topping phase. And that is usually when when we're in that phase when everybody's making money and everybody's accounts are at all-time highs and money's piling into small and micro cap stocks like they are right now. It's kind of a euphoric phase. Everybody feels pretty darn good like they know what they're doing and you're a genius, right? Everybody's who held on to stocks forever are finally getting paid off. Uh so I'm worried we're coming into this phase. And if we kind of scroll down, as you and I have touched on, precious metals tend to perform exceptionally well just as the stock market comes to a top. And we'll I'll show you a interesting comparison in 2007. But this ties back to your AI opening comment there is we've got this AI bubble potentially coming to an end. And what happens in the economy, in the economic cycle, this yellow cycle, which the stock market cycle is in the background, just as the stock market is topping, there's usually some new innovation. We had the big tech bubble back in 2000. It kind of blew up. Uh we have the the new innovation right now is everyone's piling into AI or they have been and the question is is that bubble coming to an end. And so you know the innovation this time around happens to be in some of the largest tech companies which drag the indices higher and so this is where I think we are is we've had record amount trillions of money pile into infrastructure for AI. You look at the amount of pitch decks for AI businesses. There was a report on it. It is it makes every other bubble look like chump change. They don't even look like bubbles compared to the AI of money just chasing AI. So I think your your comment there, you know, are we into a bubble phase? Uh some experts in the field says so much money is being spent on AI infrastructure and everything that there's not going to be profits for a long time. It's just out of whack. And so that's kind of this is kind of one of the reasons why I think we're getting closer to uh a major top. And it's not like your 2017. And the comparison of 2007, this is this is what to me kind of really seals the deal in terms of of where we're at. The left chart here, the stock chart in the background is the S&P 500, and it hit all-time highs in 2007 just before it went off a cliff and sold off 55%. Now, the yellow line is gold, and you and I have covered this. Gold has outperformed. It's it's on fire, telling us something big and bad is about to happen. people move to physical metals and it outperforms when they're worried about currencies and economy and all of that stuff. Now, you know, if we were to take a look at where we are now on the right hand side, stock markets at all-time highs, gold is outperforming. It's telling us something big and bad is about to happen. And in 2007, we had the US dollar, which is the green line, most hated. Everybody thought it was going to collapse. If we look where we are now, we've got the dollar down low. Nobody likes it. They think it's going to collapse. You and I have covered this. Now the interesting part on these is if we layer in what happens just be just as the stock market is about to top out and what happens with with gold miners and platinum miners. So um the middle chart here is GDX and the bottom chart is platinum and they have just started to really skyrocket and start to take take off to the upside. And as the stock market starts to stall out, which is where I think we're very close to being, gold, silver, platinum, platium miners, they continue to rocket higher temporarily while the stock market tops out. And so it's this is like the last kind of wave where the stock market is close to falling out of favor. Gold's going to continue higher. Miners and other metals are going to continue higher. And then of course the stock market eventually will will collapse and it'll want to pull gold down and everything with it. So if we were to look at where we are today, we have gold miners have now done that same thing that that rocket ship kind of move where they've they've taken you know dominance and and outperforming. We have platinum. It's done the same with platium. We're seeing uh base metal miners, anything in the minor space, copper miners, base metal miners, just throw the word mining in it, and money is flowing into all of those and they've just taken off as the leveraged play. So, this is telling us there's still more much more upside, I think, in the precious metal space, but it's also telling us the end is near. when you know when the music is good and everybody's making lots of money and it's easy every day it's more and more money that's when you just need to also be mentally preparing yourself for when this runs out because when it reverses we tend to see some pretty big some big reversals in the market and you can give back a lot of those gains and potentially not have any growth for years after that. >> Gold prices have continuously hit all-time highs this year in 2025. Stellar Gold in the mining industry is a name worth watching. Today's sponsor, Stellar Gold, is a gold developer with two of the largest undeveloped gold projects in Canada. The Tower Gold Project in the well-known Timmans mining camp and the Carlarmac gold project in the Northwest Territories. They just released plans for the towers and the numbers are impressive. 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So, let's take 1978. It was up 280%. uh 2011 was the last cycle top and from 2008 to 2011 2010 153%. Uh this rally that we're seeing currently is making 2020 look like um like a walk in the park that was only up 50 7% which is very good for gold or any asset class. But since 20 2023, since January 03 or 23 rather, >> gold's up 127%. So this is the third time it's happened since it started free floating in 1971. So this is quite unprecedented if you take a look at the longer term scale. >> Um, yeah, I mean, yeah, there's there's a lot of price action going on. It's it's pretty exciting. I mean, we're in if you if you look at the chart that I have, I'm kind of showing from the lows to the highs back in the 70s to 80s based on percentage moves from from those levels. And you can see we're actually, you know, actually not too close to the same percentages. We still have quite a ways to potentially go. But when you look at the price action, the curves on the chart, you know, usually when things start to really go parabolic and start to go straight up, like the last few bars, those are usually the ones you need to be aware of when when it feels so easy and every day just opens higher and higher no matter what. Uh that's usually a bit of a red sign. And I think, you know, if we look at GDX, the miners, this is a really good example. Just look at the last three bars. It's just popped and gone parabolic. And same with silver miners, pretty much every minor in fact. Um they're going straight up. And this is as exciting as it is. The crappy part is people get into like the precious metal space and they hold on to trades for like a decade or so and it doesn't do anything. And then suddenly like 3 months, the rally happens. And this is this is where a lot of people get caught is they've waited so long and it goes up so fast they it feels great. It looks great. Your account recovers. But people think, well, I'm going to ride this. This is just the beginning. But keep in mind all you go look at these rallies, they're all like four or five months long and then they're dead. That's right. >> And and then that's why that's why the metal has a perception of being stable because after it's rallied, >> it falls and then it stays flat for 15 years >> and but it holds a lot more value. Like it the metals hold up well at least gold holds up better where miners can crash back down. So this is the problem. People have been in the mining space for 10 years or so waiting for this and then it happens in 3 months and they they think it's just getting started, but there's a lot of signs here saying that actually this run could actually be coming to an end and we might go into a big pause. Maybe it won't sell off huge, but maybe it'll trade sideways for 6 8 months or maybe it'll pull back 20 30 40% if the market does go into a recession just like it did back in in pretty much every other pullback in the market. So people just need to be aware that, you know, just because it's it's had, you know, it's starting to rally and it's happened so fast doesn't mean it's not going to last for years. You generally aren't going to see the prices run up um when you see this type of price action. It's kind of like a little tulip bubble here. >> I have a lot of friends um well I have one friend in particular who isn't, you know, a professional investor, but uh asking me, "Hey, uh would you recommend buying silver?" Asking for a friend. My friends bought all the silver at Costco and it's sold out, >> right? >> All the silver at Costco, it's sold out just so this is the sentiment right now in precious metals. >> And then this person's also FOMOing about other stocks. But yeah, this is this is what's going on right now. >> And this this is this is like I mean I'm in this space. I communicate with thousands of investors, especially in the precious metal space every week. and you can cut the air with a knife. If you're not in if you don't hold physical metals or you're not in miners, you feel left behind and and that is it. People are literally just going to Costco and buying metals. They're probably, you know, going to the Canada Post, the post office here sells metals. I mean, they're they're sold out. I'm I'm surprised I haven't heard an ad on TV, we buy your used jewelry, because that's what happened at the last peak. But this peak has happened so fast I think or this this rally it just the ads and the people promoting gold haven't caught up yet because it's only like you know really two months in and it so I think we're very close to seeing price continue to to rally here but we're about to probably start seeing it headline news like absolutely everywhere about you know buy gold on your credit card and sell your jewelry and all that stuff and that's going to be a real red flag because that's usually the last people piling in and all that stuff. What what's the what's the market top indicator for you? >> Well, generally it still comes down to price. You still need price to reverse and usually that that requires in this type of price action, unfortunately, it requires a huge red bar. It usually requires either a huge gap higher on the on an opening of a bar and a huge sell-off or it requires price to to run way up and then close way down at the lower end of the candle showing that it got bought up but then sellers slammed it and and sold it off. So, we need some type of reversal candle and and to me it'll be on this type of chart that we're looking at now, which is the monthly chart. So, this is the this is the problem. A lot of people like always want to buy buy at the lows, pick a bottom, and then they also want to sell at the top. The reality is if you manage positions and risk, you're never going to get in at the bottom, and you're definitely not going to get out of the top unless you you very luckily happen to pick it. And you can't really pick turning points. you can do okay um but it's not very accurate and if you look at that silver reversal you got to give back a huge chunk so when things go when thing like I still believe we're going to see a big spike in silver and gold like in another month here when things start to really shoot higher if this next green bar the bar we're in right now shoots up dramatically if for silver we get up like over 52 or 55 or 58 or something you know there's going to be a point where it's like okay I'm going to start putting a very tight trailing stop so price just keeps stretching higher, the stop naturally just chases it higher with the brokerage. So, when it does start to reverse, it just kicks you out. Um, that's kind of the only way you can try to maximize profits um when you get into this phase, but you're never going to get out at the top unless it's just a lucky guess. So, you just have to accept that this is nice, but eventually you're going to give some of it back if you're going to get out to lock in gains because it's just the way it is. You don't want to, >> you know, just exit for for no reason. It could just keep going higher. >> Yeah, I have to bring up the fact that it's at $48. I didn't even mention that at the beginning. I should have. This is $2 away from its historical all-time high. And people have been talking about >> alltime highs. It's going to create a feeding even more of a feeding frenzy. I think we're going to see a huge spike like I talked about a long time ago. I think like82 $87 for silver is potential um to the upside. Like it could just go ballistic, right? And and it'll be an opportunity to lock in profits if that happens in my book. You know, I spoke to a lot of people in the mining sector. They were saying, "Well, once it gets to 30, it'll get to 40. Once it gets to 40, it'll hit 50 fast." And, you know, people say that, but they were right this time. They were right this cycle. And Chris, you have to let's be let's be aware of the fact that literally two months ago, I was asking people, is it possible for silver to hit $50 this cycle? Is it possible to hit all-time highs? Are the uh are are the macro forces aligned? Are the fundamentals aligned? you know, are the demand drivers still active? And here we are on the 6th of October. We're two bucks away. It could very much hit it could very well hit 50 by tomorrow. I don't know. >> Totally. Well, this is this is the this is the thing. So, so many people, you know, buy metals or get into stocks and things on on fundamental data. They're like, "Oh, the economy, the economic situation is good. The fundamentals are good, but it might take forever to get to this price." Whereas if you follow technical analysis, technical analysis got into got us into gold and silver in 2019 when when this this this got us into gold in 2019 and that was when that whole cycle the next super cycle in gold started. And that's the nice thing about technical analysis is when you when you follow technical analysis, you know, gold peaked out in in 2011 and then it went into a multi-year stage one base and then it broke out. technicals usually get you in before the economic data. So over here it says get into gold. It's starting a new upward cycle. And then finally the you know the the the fundamental the economic climate the whole fiat like monetary policy is now like it couldn't be any more in favor for gold. Um and I know people have always said well it's always gold's always been in favor for like the monetary policy to change and fiat currencies. But if you just follow technicals, it will get you in when the actual trend is is is flowing and in the right direction. And then usually the fundamentals and all that stuff will fall on your lap. You're like, "Okay, well, now we're in the sweet spot where not only price is up, but now the actual economic environment matches it." And when you put those two together, you get these parabolic moves, the perfect storm. Um, but a lot of people don't get in until the perfect storm hits like they are right now. And that's why we're seeing this feeding frenzy. It's like you really technically should have been in the start of the new bull market back in 2019 for gold or at least got in, you know, 2024 when it broke out of that multi-year pause, uh, right around, you know, 2100 over here. You know, that's that's the technicals get you in early and then if the trend matures and the fundamentals fall in your lap in in favor, that's when you get these giant parabolic moves. Everybody's, you know, there's so much turmoil in countries right now. people don't trust the systems, the government, like there's so much going on. It's a it's just the perfect time for gold and that's why it's taking off. And it has people also thinking, you know, this is going to be a lot of people think this is it. Gold's going to go to the moon, 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, these, you know, crazy values. And maybe it will, but um the shorter term when you look at just the normal cycles, we're in that late stage and uh everything is fun and exciting right now, but it's very shortlived. These these rallies are shortlived. They last a few months when it's really exciting and then they can go dormant for four or five years again. And that's what we need to be aware of. >> We're at a time where yes, 5,000 10,000 those are crazy numbers. But remember a couple years ago 3,000 was a crazy number. I remember asking people years ago um for their longerterm gold forecast and uh hyperinflation and you know hypothetical scenarios that will push gold higher and someone literally said to me if gold hits $4,000 or $5,000 that's that's that's a sign that people are hiding in bunkers stocking up at ammo and and canned food. Well, we're not doing that right now in the West. At least most of us aren't. And it's already at 4,000 bucks. So what was crazy a few years ago is now reality today. So what may seem like crazy for us now may be reality next week. Who knows? This is the crazy times that we're living in, Chris. And I don't know what to do in this environment. And uh as an investor, or as a trader, you you you you look at prices that seem crazy two years ago and it's reality now. What does that mean for you? >> Yeah. Well, this this is why you need to follow follow trends, right? And not not go by your gut. If you just follow the trends, the long-term charts, it'll keep you on the right side of the market. I remember Maria Bartoromo on CNBC. This was forever ago. They had a these people for Bitcoin on and they gave her an actual physical Bitcoin and back then it was worth like a hundred bucks. >> What's a physical Bitcoin? >> They used to make actual physical metal bitcoins that you could put in a vending machine. Do you not remember? So you could you they had vending machines that you could go and buy bitcoins and would spit them out. This is back when Bitcoin was not as expensive as it was now. And here she is now holding it. And here we are. Bitcoin from like, you know, four bucks and or 50 bucks or 100 bucks a bitcoin to now it's $125,000 US. Yeah. And I think it's about to go to 136,000. And it could go it could go a hell of a lot higher. There's another target that points to like 180,000. So as you said, what seems ridiculous, impossible can happen. And the same thing happened with crude oil. Like nobody thought it could go negative and people lost their shirts and and didn't even know how to handle it. even experts in the field. Um, so this is why you just you have to follow price and and not get caught up in in in news and stuff because the news will shake you out. It'll get you out of positions and and it's just difficult to gauge. >> I'm going to move on to Bitcoin. But before that, I'll ask you one final question on the precious metals. So once gold hits 4,000, once silver hits $50, these are critical psychological um round numbers. $40 $50 is especially important for silver given that it was a previous all-time high that people have been talking about for literally 40 years. 2011 was a blip and didn't stay there for very long. Um what will happen next? Are we going to have massive resistance at that level or those levels for gold and silver and then potentially a huge selloff and correction? Uh is it going to consolidate at that level for quite some time? or like you suggested earlier, maybe that's a catalyst for more FOMO buying before we see another top. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think you bring up a really good point. I I I have a feeling in this market environment, cuz it's still I feel a little early in the feeding frenzy where people are just piling in. Um people are are now numb to gold hitting all-time highs. It's it's been doing it forever, it feels like. But silver, I think, is going to spark a hell of a move. I think it's going to it's such a tiny market too that I think it could it could really explode as I mentioned like up into the 80s. Um so I do think it's going to spark a big wave of of of buying. Um you know if we look at the just drop down to the 10-minute chart. So there are signs that there's some big money investors starting to move out. So this is the 10-minute chart of gold from last week. Twice throughout the week. Whoops. We saw a big high volume selloff in gold. We saw that twice. So there we're getting up into that nosebleleed territory that there are some big players starting to try cut back their their allocations in gold. We saw this in silver as well. But all that's doing is just telling us that there, you know, a lot of people are think it's a good uh price to start locking in some gains. But I do think we're going to see silver probably percentage- wise. It looks primed and ready to really have, as I mentioned before, a very strong green bar that could just be absolutely ludicrous and it will suck in the rest of the people who aren't in. And unfortunately, they're probably going to pay a high and they're not going to see it reach those highs again for many, many years after that. Silver has a has a great way of um putting some pretty explosive moves in and then having epic reversals to the downside. So, I'd >> go ahead. Let me just share with you a thought that I just had. So suppose I were to hold something an asset like gold and suppose they were to climb over 150% over the course of five or six years. Um I would be inclined to just hold it because I'm seeing steady gains and psychologically I'm thinking well uh this is a pretty stable asset. It's beating inflation. It's probably on par with not beating the markets and it's steady. I'm not scared about the momentum and so I probably I probably hold it in that case even though on a nominal level it's still at the same level as now. But right now what's happening is that the five or six year potential gain that I'm talking about is condensed into a 1.5 year period. And now psychologically speaking I'm thinking now it's time to take profits even though the nominal value of gains is still the same. You know what I mean? It's just the time the time has been compressed. And so when you usually when you see large movements in a shorter amount of time even though the magnitude of the climb may be the same as a longer term move people are more inclined to sell. Have you noticed that? Um I mean when we get into these feeding frenzies it it lures people in. Like this volatility whether it's straight up or straight down lures more people in because a straight up move create just creates FOMO. And there's all kinds of studies that show it's more painful for an investor to watch something go higher without them and think that everybody else is making money but them than it is for them to take a loss. So the faster something goes up, the brighter that bug zapper light glows and the more people it lures in. And it it at some point once this once this tide turns, once this spike kind of ends, there will be max like exodus and it'll be like the you know people scared and they just dump shares. But um you know I think one of the things you kind of touched on is you know say you get in and it goes up 150% or whatever and you're like well I'm just going to hold on to it. I think that is the mindset of a lot of people because they're like I'm up so much I can let it pull back. I can let it do its thing before potentially going higher because they've got a lot of buffer. They're not they're up so much. Generally though when it starts to fall they start to panic and they're like I'm giving I'm giving so much back and they usually get out. The same scenario kind of happened leading in 2007. Um, if you follow technicals, it would have it would have gotten you out. It would have allowed you to repurchase later and then play another one of these moves to the upside. And this would be the same mindset as what you just touched is. You're in this beautiful trade. I think I'll just hold it. And yes, if you hold it long enough, the buy and hold strategy does usually prevail. But here's here's the thing. you you know pretty much you know wasted 13 years of no returns where you could have put that money somewhere else. Imagine making 13 like 13 years worth of returns for 13 years compounding. And so this is what I want to avoid. My whole strategy is I want to avoid the selloff. I I don't mind selling a little bit lower wherever the trend changes and I I don't want to waste 13 years. I want to put that money somewhere that earns earns money. Gold doesn't really pay you, right? If if anything, it costs you money. Whether it's an ETF, there's a um management fee. Or if you store physical gold, you've got an annual fee. So instead of instead of holding on to it because you like it, and you're like, I'll just hold until it goes higher because it naturally will. What if you had, you know, 13 years, you could put it in something else that goes up five or 10 or 14%. Every year until then, and then you just get back into gold when it actually says that. And so that's what I focus on. I focus on it's not about making as much as you can on every move. It's about knowing when to get into a trend, when to hold it, and when to get out, and then to move that money to another asset that can work while, you know, this other asset is dormant and not and not doing anything. So, I work on efficiency. I don't want to waste time, and I want to be constantly pulling money out. And that's the strategy I do. And it's not it's not rocket science. It's not super exciting, but it allows us to navigate these markets. and we don't have 13 years of no returns and watching, you know, our individual mining stocks crash and and take forever to come back. Um, so I just do things a lot differently, right? I, as much as I love physical metals, I'm not going to hold them forever. I'm not going to hold any trade forever. If it falls out of favor, I move on and I can always buy it back later when it actually looks like it's on on onto higher grounds. >> Let's move on to Bitcoin and finish off there. I I want to point out that um Bitcoin may have led uh precious metals in a similar kind of pattern in that it has reached the psychologically important level of $100,000 after climbing more than 150% over the last year uh before that and after it reached $100,000 which is a key psychological level. It's been consolidating and grinding slightly higher, but it hasn't seen the same level of move this year as it did last year. And so this year, year to date, it's up only about, well, only I mean, I say only, but it's up about 30 something%. Very good for Bitcoin or any asset class for that matter, but underperforming gold, a boring yellow rock. And um I I say that with a grain of salt because traditionally what has been seen as a more stable uh traditional asset is now outperforming the new horse in the race um this year. Uh so the point I'm making is perhaps Bitcoin is signaling what the precious metals could be doing once they also hit a key psychological level which is consolidation and a slight uptick from there but not by much. But I'll let you comment on that. That's just what I've noticed. >> Yeah. And and this is like how it kind of generally works in the investment world. As you know, if you want big percentage moves, you usually need something that is lower value. Like if you're if you're a day trader, you're usually looking at stocks under 20 bucks, generally like under $5 because the smaller price it is, you can usually have bigger daily fluctuations, percentage moves. Bitcoin is now getting pretty pretty expensive. I mean, you could have said that when it was at 20,000, but the thing is Bitcoin to me is is a little different beast than other things because Bitcoin sucked in like the whole world, which is why it's so expensive. Like you a kid a kid can buy this like grandparents buy it. I mean, it becomes kind of a fun thing to do and instead of it just being somebody with an actual trading account and you have to fund it, um, Bitcoin just opened up to the whole world and gamers and everybody to pile in. So, I think that all that value got pushed into Bitcoin and has made it that crowded play. Now, it's just it's pretty expensive. I think most of the world who's going to be in Bitcoin is already in it. It's not like you're bringing in a million new investors like, you know, every every week or something that have never had exposure to it. I think it's kind of getting old and it because it's expensive, it needs to run huge dollar-wise to make those big percentage moves. And we're we're seeing that the next upside target. I mean, it's another $10,000 of Bitcoin, but it's like 8%. It's not a very big percentage move. And now that Bitcoin's not having massive percentage moves, I think a lot of people kind of get bored with it, too, right? They're like, "Well, I'd rather go over to gold." Um, so that's kind of that's how I think it's kind of unfolding. It's lost its shine. Most of the world who's going to get in Bitcoin has got some of it already. or they're going to find yield or they're going to find higher yield in the altcoin space. Maybe that'll be the start of the altcoin season. >> It could be. I mean, Ethereum like shot up and really outperformed Bitcoin there for a while. So, we're starting to see rotation. Bitcoin is, you know, it's back up at alltime highs, but it's definitely not as as strong as it used to be. And we can see that on the charts. We've got this next run higher. There's been a nice explosive move just in the last week here, kind of green bar after green bar on the on the daily chart. But, um, I think you're right. I think we're going to start to see things in all coins and and different ones that are um more have more fluctuation to them. >> So, what do you think is going to happen now to Bitcoin? >> I think Bitcoin's heading up to this 3500 and depending on on how it gets there. If we take a look at the monthly chart and we kind of give it a bit of Fibonacci um formation, we can get an idea of of where this next move could be. So based on this low that we saw back in April this year, the high which which was right up here in um July, September, whatever it was there, if we carry this forward to where we are, let's just take a look. It is pointing to 158. So there there is pretty good potential for it to run about 25%. Uh so there you know that I think if if Bitcoin runs up here this will be very similar to the precious metal space meaning we're going to see um gold silver pop and really shoot higher. Same with miners and Bitcoin I think is going to do the same. I think we're just in this risk on feeding frenzy and it really kicked in gear last week and we can see that in Bitcoin and all other things in the mining space. Um small caps, micro caps have come to life. people are taking risk and Bitcoin is like the ultimate risk trade. Like people want to it moves a lot. It's volatile. When people pile into Bitcoin, it means they're willing to take risk and they're not fearful. We're seeing that kind of across the whole board. Money's money is moving in and it's happening at a kind of a rate that usually s signals we're in this euphoric phase where people are chasing it. Everybody's making money on every trade because everything's going up. Um but it's usually a warning sign. So, I think we could see like 150 or 160 in in Bitcoin potentially over the next uh month or two. I think I think the whole market is really a month or two away from a huge shift potentially. The stock market might actually put in a top based on the monthly chart of what's going on in the whole precious metal space. currencies, platinum, platium, miners, uh, Bitcoin, they all have one or two more bars left that are big to the upside and that'll kind of signal, I think, a topping pattern that could start. >> How did you come up or come to that conclusion that we've got a couple months left? >> Well, when we when we go back and we look at the the 200 and um, let me just see if I can get this chart back here. If we go back and look at when the stock market peaked in 2007, it was one, two, it was um as as just as gold and everything took off, we saw about a two-month rally, about a two-month move in the precious metal space and and the stock market that pushed up to all-time highs and the stock market topped out, but the mining space and some of these riskier other risky plays continued to move higher. So just based on the last push is telling me I I think the stock market actually could top out before that. I think precious metals still have you know 6 8 weeks to the upside. And as you can see here as the stock market starts to go down this is when we see precious metals have that big push. So I think we're about to see one more big push because right now we are equivalent to like right here for gold. meaning the stock market is about to pull back and gold, silver miners, and Bitcoin are probably about to shoot higher. Bitcoin's the wild card. I don't know if it's going to move with the NASDAQ or not. As you know, it has a pretty close relationship with the NASDAQ. So, I kind of I'd scratch out Bitcoin because it has a lower probability, but we're on on target for about a one to two month rally in in metals still. Two more big green bars um based on what happened in the past. I mean it's just it's it's just a rough guesstimate. I mean there is no for sure. >> Well, let's assume that you're of the opinion or somebody adopts the opinion that there's two more months left of this rally, you know, rally of anything. Could be Bitcoin, gold, stocks. Doesn't matter what the asset class is. What do you do from now until two months later? Do you wait or do you get in and maybe this last two months will be the most um frenzy >> percentage wise move frenzied of all the moves we've seen so far. I don't know. I'm just speculating. But if we're talking about the the last inning of the top, that's when everybody gets in on the FOMO trade. That could be a big frenzy trade. And as somebody who thinks, well, there's two more three more months left of this. Maybe I would take advantage of this. Or is that too risky? I think buying right now is chasing. I I I think what somebody would need to do would be to like this is the GDX for example, but it's the same for gold and everything else. We need to see some type of quick reset and consolidation, some little pause here. So, it regains it builds some bullish chart pattern. It could be a pennant, it could be a bull flag, whatever that pattern is. And then when it starts to break and starts to run higher, then then I think you you kind of look for the breakout of that pattern or the breakout to a new high because this type of price action actually will restabilize it and give it kind of the next thrust to the upside. But right now, we're seeing what is a a running correction in the mining space, which is in instead of doing like what it did back here, it rallies up and then it puts in a nice bull flag. That is very strong consistent. This move here to the upside is what the next measured move should be to the upside. And and now we're getting into it's it's having us running correction, meaning it's gapping up and down all over the place. It's correcting and shaking the hell out of people on the way up. It's not actually pulling back and pausing. And this type of price action is volatile. It at any point it could just shoot higher and you're like, I missed it. It's it's it could spike up to 100 or it's going to have a very sharp correction and reset a little bit and maybe build a bull flag pattern. So, I would not get in here. I think you've missed that move. Now, you need to like let it consolidate, take a pause, and then potentially get in on the next run because right now you're literally b you're walking through a landmine. this is going to be a big green bar or a big red bar uh over over the next week or two. I think we just have to see how this settles and I'd much rather I would rather miss out on upside than buy it here and then it cra crashes and I'm like ah I bade the high. Why did I do that? So I don't get FOMO like everyone else does. I don't mind missing out. I always know there's another trade. I mean we're long the precious metal space already so I definitely don't need to get in here. But um waiting you you can't just buy because you feel like you're if you feel like you're missing out, you're you're probably paying a premium. You got to wait for a pause or pull back. >> Chris, excellent thoughts today. Um this is just um crazy crazy time that we're living in right now with the markets historic. So uh let's follow up in a in a week or two and let's see what happens after that. Plenty of more news and price action to to digest over the next two weeks, I'm sure. So yeah, sounds great. Good talk today. Thank you very much. We'll follow Chris in the link down below. So, make sure to follow the technical traders there. And as always, thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and uh we'll see you next time.
