| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 20.3% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 20.3% |
Standard Wealth delivered 20.3% returns in 2025 as global equity markets surged on record technology earnings. However, the manager advocates caution after three consecutive years of double-digit gains have pushed the S&P 500 to 31.3x trailing P/E versus a 10-year average of 21.6x. With his value investing discipline, new opportunities are scarce at current valuations. Key risks include persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target for five years and the $520 billion AI infrastructure buildout by Magnificent 7 companies, which may not generate expected $135 billion earnings. The weakening dollar drove strong commodity performance with gold up 67% and silver up 49%. The strategy maintains defensive positioning through allocations to gold, arbitrage, and hedged strategies designed to weather volatility while preserving capital for future opportunities. This uncorrelated approach aims to sidestep market corrections while remaining positioned to capitalize on dislocations when panicked sellers create attractive entry points.
Maintain defensive value investing discipline in historically expensive markets while positioning for volatility through uncorrelated strategies that can capitalize on forced selling opportunities.
The manager recommends a defensive posture given three consecutive years of double-digit gains and historically high valuations. While acknowledging the possibility of continued market strength if AI investments succeed, he positions for potential volatility through uncorrelated strategies that can capitalize on market dislocations.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, commodities, Defensive, inflation, risk management, value | - | Standard Wealth gained 20.3% in 2025 but advocates defensive positioning given historically high S&P 500 valuations at 31.3x P/E. Manager questions whether $520 billion AI infrastructure spending will generate expected returns. Strategy maintains uncorrelated allocations to gold, arbitrage, and hedged positions to weather potential volatility while preserving capital for future opportunities when valuations become attractive. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager is skeptical about AI infrastructure buildout, noting that the Magnificent 7 have a $520 billion capital expenditure program for 2026 but questions whether required earnings will materialize. Expects Mr. Market to punish share prices if future earnings fail to meet expectations from the AI buildout. |
Infrastructure Capital Expenditure Technology Earnings Valuations |
GoldGold rallied 67% in 2025 as part of the debasement trade and weakening U.S. dollar. Manager has allocations to gold within Standard Wealth strategy as part of defensive positioning to weather economic turmoil and market volatility. |
Commodities Currency Inflation Defensive Portfolio | |
InflationInflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's targeted 2% range for over 5 years in a row. Some government officials have suggested raising the target to 3%, which would benefit debtors like the U.S. government with $38 trillion in debt. Manager warns bond investors about potential crashes if inflation remains elevated. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Bonds Government Debt | |
ValueManager maintains value investing discipline, allocating capital to new opportunities only when sufficiently rewarded for risks taken. Notes that new opportunities are few due to continued march higher in equity markets, requiring caution as margin of safety erodes. |
Investing Discipline Margin of Safety Opportunities | |
VolatilityManager views stock market volatility as the friend of long-term investors, providing opportunities to buy wonderful businesses at temporarily depressed prices. Built portfolio with uncorrelated strategies to excel in best times while withstanding market shocks. |
Opportunity Defensive Portfolio Construction Risk Management |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| No ticker commentary found. | |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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