| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -11.9% | - |
Adestella lost 11.9% in Q1 2025 as tariff and economic growth concerns overshadowed solid earnings data, causing domestic benchmarks to decline 4-10%. International markets, particularly in Europe, performed well as investors rotated from large-cap US technology stocks following international AI development headlines. While foreign holdings performed solidly, they could not offset domestic losses. The second quarter began with continued tariff and recession fears around Liberation Day, but markets and the portfolio have since recovered as rhetoric moderated and timelines extended. The manager remains focused on controllable investment processes, expressing satisfaction with early results from new idea generation and data collection initiatives. A detailed thesis on new position Niagen Bioscience (NAGE) exemplifies this approach, highlighting a profitable NAD+ supplement company in the growing wellness market. The investment targets the aging demographic with strong brand awareness and recurring revenue potential. Despite geopolitical uncertainty, the manager maintains focus on fundamental analysis and process-driven investing while navigating volatile market conditions.
Focus on fundamental investment processes and idea generation while navigating market volatility from tariff concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, with particular emphasis on identifying undervalued opportunities in the biotechnology and wellness sectors.
The manager remains focused on controllable factors including investment processes, expressing satisfaction with early results from idea generation and data collection initiatives. While geopolitical uncertainty persists, the tone suggests cautious optimism following the market recovery in Q2.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 2025 | 2025 Q1 | NAGE | Biotechnology, international, Supplements, tariffs, technology, Wellness | NAGE | Adestella declined 11.9% in Q1 2025 due to tariff concerns despite solid earnings, with international holdings outperforming but unable to offset domestic losses. Markets recovered in Q2 as rhetoric moderated. The manager focuses on investment processes, highlighting new position NAGE, a profitable NAD+ supplement company targeting the growing wellness and aging market. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | NBIS, PSIX, TWLO | Inflection, software, technology, turnaround, value | TWLO | Adestella targets inflection opportunities where sustainable business changes create value gaps. Twilio exemplifies this - down 70% over four years despite 4x revenue growth, the cloud communications leader has pivoted from cash burning to profitable operations under new management. Trading at 4x sales versus historical 40x peak, with $3B guided free cash flow through 2027, it offers compelling risk-adjusted upside. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q3 | EVO.ST, FOUR, NBIS, PRKS, PSIX, UFPT | AI, edge, international, small caps, Structural Advantages, value |
PSIX EVO.ST NBIS |
Adestella leverages structural advantages of small size to target under-the-radar opportunities in small-cap and international markets. Despite Q3 underperformance due to sector allocation, the fund maintains conviction in quality holdings like Evolution Gaming and AI-infrastructure play Nebius Group. Manager expects eventual reversal of large-cap dominance to benefit concentrated value approach. |
| Aug 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | MGRC, PRKS, WSC | Entertainment, Industrial Services, M&A, Recovery, small caps, value |
PRKS WSC |
Adestella lost 3.5% in Q2 as small-caps underperformed, but used weakness to add positions. The fund highlighted two new holdings: United Parks & Resorts, a theme park operator recovering from past challenges and trading at a discount despite superior metrics, and Willscot Mobile Mini, a temporary space provider with compelling unit economics and M&A opportunities. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q1 | FOUR | Long/Short, payments, Portfolio Management, small cap, value | FOUR | Adestella delivered 12% returns in Q1 despite small-cap headwinds through disciplined portfolio management and selective stock picking. The fund's systematic approach to position sizing and risk management, combined with concentrated bets like Shift4 Payments offering 35-50% upside and sale catalyst potential, positions it well for eventual factor rotation from large-cap dominance to small-cap outperformance. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2023 Q4 | HRI, URI | Construction Equipment, Equipment Rental, Long/Short, small caps, value | HRI | Small-cap value fund gained 3.2% in Q4 but lagged mega-cap rally due to underweight tech/financials positioning. New position in equipment rental company Herc Holdings offers 30% IRR potential through rental penetration gains and operational improvements. Manager sees early signs of small-cap recovery and views potential rate cuts as positive catalyst. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q3 | RRR | Benchmarks, Casinos, Long/Short, Nevada, small cap, value | AEO|ASH|ASUR|AZZ|DCO|FA|FBIN|GHM|LEU|NSP|RRR|UTZ | Small-cap value manager returned 1.1% in Q3 through long/short strategy, adding Red Rock Resorts position. Red Rock benefits from Las Vegas locals gaming market growth and regulatory moat, with new Durango casino providing near-term catalyst. Manager maintains conviction in out-of-favor names despite index concentration favoring mega-caps, expecting broader market participation ahead. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | MYRG, PWR, UFPT | Energy Transition, healthcare, infrastructure, Medical Devices, small caps, value |
UFPT MYRG |
Adestella gained 6.7% in Q2 while avoiding AI-driven mega-caps. The fund added two small-cap positions crossing institutional size thresholds: UFP Technologies, a medical device manufacturer targeting 25% IRR potential, and MYR Group, an electrical contractor benefiting from infrastructure spending and energy transition. Both offer attractive fundamentals with potential flow-driven re-rating catalysts. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q1 | SDI.L, VRLA.PA | AI, Europe, Glass, Instruments, international, small caps, value |
SDI.L VRLA.PA |
Adestella focuses on undervalued European small-caps with strong cash generation, avoiding AI hype. International positions outperformed domestic for first time despite prolonged US market dominance. Portfolio includes SDI Group scientific instruments rollup and Verallia glass packaging at compressed multiples. Manager expects boring companies to eventually be rewarded when market concentration normalizes. |
| Mar 28 2023 | 2022 Q4 | DASH, DKNG, FC, OTLY, SNOW | - | - | |
| Dec 16 2022 | 2022 Q3 | EVO SS, TRMR, XPO | - | - | |
| Sep 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 2 2022 | 2022 Q1 | INMD, SIG, XPO | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 |
BiotechnologyDetailed analysis of Niagen Bioscience (NAGE), a NAD+ supplement company focused on healthy aging and longevity. The company has achieved recent profitability and operates in the growing wellness market targeting aging demographics. Strong brand awareness with Tru Niagen as a leading Amazon supplement. |
NAD Supplements Aging Wellness Longevity |
| 2024 Q4 |
CloudTwilio operates as a cloud communication services provider through its CPaaS platform. The company has undergone significant operational restructuring to shift from growth-at-any-cost to profitability focus, with new CEO implementing cost reductions and capital return programs. |
CPaaS Communication SaaS Restructuring Profitability |
ValueManager identifies inflection point opportunities where companies trade below fair value due to temporary issues. Twilio represents this approach - down 70% over 4 years, trading at 4x EV/S versus 40x at peak, same price as 2019 but with 4x revenue. |
Inflection Undervalued Turnaround Valuation Recovery | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Small CapsManager emphasizes structural advantages of targeting under-the-radar small-cap opportunities, noting that while large-caps have outperformed for nearly two decades, cheaper valuations and longer compounding runways historically led smaller firms to superior performance over 80+ years prior to 2007. Current portfolio includes sub-$500M companies like Power Solutions International trading at attractive multiples. |
Small Cap Valuations Compounding Under-the-radar |
AIDiscussion centers on AI as both opportunity and competitive threat. Manager notes AI models may soon outperform sophisticated qualitative investors, while highlighting investment in Nebius Group, an AI-infrastructure company benefiting from insatiable demand for AI stories at reasonable prices. |
AI Infrastructure Machine Learning Technology Disruption | |
ValueFund pursues value investing across geographies and asset classes, seeking companies with superior valuations or growth prospects. Examples include Evolution Gaming trading below US market multiples despite high quality, and Power Solutions International at 7x trailing earnings with secular tailwinds. |
Valuation Undervalued Quality Multiples | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Theme ParksUnited Parks & Resorts operates theme parks including Busch Gardens and SeaWorld. The company is finally turning the corner after years of challenges from the Blackfish documentary and pandemic impacts. Despite similar growth and superior profitability metrics to leisure industry competitors, PRKS trades at a discount to peers. |
Entertainment Leisure Tourism Recovery Valuation |
Industrial ServicesWillscot Mobile Mini Holdings provides temporary space solutions with compelling unit economics generating 25-30% lifetime IRRs. The company has an established M&A playbook, having completed 30+ deals since 2017 while delivering 10% ROIC expansion and 14% EBITDA margin expansion. |
Rentals Equipment M&A Recurring Revenue Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q1 |
PaymentsShift4 Payments represents a compelling investment opportunity trading at 9.5-10x EBITDA despite 25%+ organic growth. The company has grown payment volume and revenue by double-digits every year for 24 years and operates across restaurant, hospitality, and sports & entertainment verticals with strong competitive moats. |
Payment Processing SaaS Restaurant Technology Sports Entertainment Hospitality |
| 2023 Q4 |
Construction EquipmentHeavy machinery industrials benefit from infrastructure investment and housing shortfalls. Rental equipment providers gain from continued share gains in rental penetration, which has increased consistently but remains below levels seen in other developed countries. |
Equipment Rental Infrastructure Construction Rental Penetration Heavy Machinery |
| 2023 Q3 |
CasinosRed Rock Resorts operates casino and entertainment properties in the Las Vegas locals market, which has structural advantages over the Strip including less competition and higher gaming margins. The company benefits from Nevada's rapid population growth driven by California migration and favorable tax environment. |
Gaming Nevada Population Growth Locals Market Entertainment |
| 2023 Q2 |
Infrastructure SpendingMYR Group benefits from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act's $73B investment in electric grid and energy infrastructure. The company's backlog has reached record levels as initial disbursements begin flowing. Both T&D and C&I divisions stand to benefit from significant funding for public works projects. |
IIJA Grid Utilities Construction Electrical |
Energy TransitionMYR Group is positioned to benefit from grid decarbonization and utility-scale solar projects. The DOE estimates US transmission systems need 57% capacity growth by 2035 to meet clean energy targets. Supply chain constraints for solar are easing while tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act incentivize investment. |
Solar Grid Decarbonization Transmission Clean Energy | |
Medical DevicesUFP Technologies derives 85% of sales from single-use medical devices and sterile packaging solutions. The global medical device market is forecast to grow 5.5% through the decade. UFPT serves 25 of the 30 largest medical device manufacturers and sees opportunity for further penetration of its client base. |
MedTech Healthcare Single-use Packaging Growth | |
| 2023 Q1 |
EuropeManager believes international markets, particularly Europe, offer better risk-reward despite recent underperformance. European energy prices expected to move higher with volatility, but many companies have limited exposure to such inputs. Focus on cash-generative companies that can withstand higher interest rates. |
European Markets Valuation Gap Energy Prices Cash Generation Interest Rates |
ValuePortfolio tilted toward value opportunities with focus on companies trading at discounted multiples. SDI Group trading at less than 20x earnings down from 41x peak. Verallia at 6x EBITDA represents significant discount to peer Vidrala at 11x. |
Discounted Multiples Earnings Compression Peer Comparison Valuation Gap | |
AIRecent AI craze has created new trillion-dollar club member and unleashed investor animal spirits. Tech comprising 7 of 8 largest S&P components has propped up indices despite zero net contribution from rank-and-file constituents. Manager avoiding chasing AI winners after they've become behemoths. |
Artificial Intelligence Tech Concentration Market Leadership FOMO |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | NAGE | Niagen Bioscience | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | Anti-Aging, biotechnology, direct-to-consumer, growth, Healthy Aging, Longevity, M&A Target, NAD+, Pharmaceutical-Grade, profitability inflection, supplements, Wellness | Login |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | TWLO | Twilio Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NYSE | activist, API, cloud communications, Cpaas, Free Cash Flow, Inflection, profitability, SaaS, Software, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | PSIX | Power Solutions International | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NASDAQ | Engine, Industrial, margin expansion, OTC, Power systems, secular tailwinds, small-cap, Under-the-radar, Value | Login |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | EVO.ST | Evolution Gaming | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | Stockholm Stock Exchange | European, Gaming, High quality, International, live casino, Long-term holding, Mean Reversion, valuation discount | Login |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | NBIS | Nebius Group | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Discount to comps, Early access, Index exclusion, Misunderstood situation, rapid growth, Russian divestiture, spinoff | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | PRKS | United Parks & Resorts | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | Attendance Recovery, entertainment, Fixed Costs, international expansion, Pricing power, private equity, real estate development, theme parks, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | WSC | Willscot Mobile Mini Holdings | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NASDAQ | Equipment Rental, Free Cash Flow, GDP growth, infrastructure, M&A Consolidation, Modular Offices, recurring revenue, Temporary Space, Unit economics, value-added services | Login |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NYSE | Catalyst, founder-led, hospitality, M&A, payment processing, POS Systems, Restaurant technology, Roll-up Strategy, SaaS, sports entertainment, Value | Login |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | HRI | Herc Holdings | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NYSE | capital allocation, consolidation, Equipment Rental, heavy machinery, Industrial, infrastructure, M&A, specialty equipment, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | AEO|ASH|ASUR|AZZ|DCO|FA|FBIN|GHM|LEU|NSP|RRR|UTZ | Red Rock Resorts | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | NASDAQ | California Migration, Casinos, development pipeline, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Gaming, Las Vegas, Locals Market, Nevada, Population growth, Real Estate, Regulatory Moat | Login |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | UFPT | UFP Technologies | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Family-owned Business, growth, Healthcare Equipment, Medical devices, Medtech, OEM Integration, secular growth, Single-Use Products, small-cap, Sterile Packaging | Login |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | MYRG | MYR Group | Capital Goods | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | clean energy, data centers, Electrical Construction, Government Spending, Grid Infrastructure, infrastructure investment, secular growth, solar projects, Transmission Distribution, utilities | Login |
| Jun 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | SDI.L | SDI Group | Health Care Equipment & Services | Health Care Equipment | Bull | AIM | cash generation, Industrial Equipment, life sciences, M&A, Niche markets, Rollup, scientific instruments, UK, Value | Login |
| Jun 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Adestella Investment Management | VRLA.PA | Verallia | Materials | Containers & Packaging | Bull | Euronext Paris | Beverages, consolidation, defensive, Europe, Glass packaging, premium products, Pricing power, Spirits, Value, Wine | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| NAGE | Niagen Biosciences is a global bioscience company with a focus on nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) research and healthy aging science. The company offers NAD+ through two primary product lines targeting different market segments. The better known of the two is probably Tru Niagen, a consumer-grade oral supplement that represents the company's flagship direct-to-consumer product. NAGE also markets a pharmaceutical-grade product line called Niagen Plus that comprises its intravenous (IV) and injectable formulations available through healthcare providers with a prescription. In Q3 of last year, NAGE finally reached sufficient scale to generate the operating leverage needed for GAAP profitability, and with a strong Q4 managed to report net income for the full year a few months later. NAGE's 2025 guidance provided alongside their Q1 earnings does not appear to be fully appreciated by the sell-side. In the release, management projected 20-25% sales growth, with S&M leverage partially offset by increased G&A. Putting it all together produces about 18 cents in earnings per share this year, over 20% above the current consensus estimate of $0.15. Using our own estimates for upcoming years, we think that NAGE is worth at least $16/share now as a stand-alone entity, assuming no incremental product introductions or market acceleration in upcoming years. |
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