| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Advisors Capital Management sees solid prospects for 2026 driven by AI-powered productivity gains that are offsetting wage pressures and containing inflation while boosting corporate profits. The firm expects solid GDP growth, strong profit growth, and only modest changes in inflation and interest rates, creating an almost ideal environment for stock prices. However, market concentration has reached concerning levels with the top 10 companies representing 40.7% of the S&P 500, dominated by AI beneficiaries like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Geopolitically, the Monroe-Trump Doctrine represents a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy, with Venezuela's regime change potentially lowering oil prices and benefiting energy companies. The firm maintains diversified portfolios positioned for inflation resilience through exposure to energy, real estate, and companies with pricing power. In fixed income, they favor 3-7 year corporate bonds with moderate duration and higher credit quality. While AI investment momentum remains strong, the firm acknowledges risks from potential slowdowns and emphasizes the importance of diversification beyond mega-cap concentration.
AI-driven productivity gains are creating an almost ideal environment for markets, with solid GDP growth, strong corporate profits, and contained inflation supporting equity valuations, while geopolitical shifts and energy market changes provide additional investment opportunities.
Solid prospects for 2026 with expectations for solid GDP growth, correspondingly strong profit growth, only modest changes in inflation, and therefore only modest changes in interest rates. This combination creates an almost ideal environment for stock prices. The economic environment is very positive for equities with slow job growth translating into solid economic growth as productivity lifts GDP.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, SLB, TSLA | AI, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, productivity, technology, Venezuela | - | AI-driven capital spending remains a powerful force propelling company valuations higher over the past three years. AI adoption is proceeding rapidly with productivity gains helping offset wage pressures and containing inflation. The technology is displacing many jobs while reducing business costs, creating an almost ideal environment for stock prices. The capture of Nicolás Maduro represents a dramatic change in U.S. foreign policies under the Monroe-Trump Doctrine. This signals a more assertive approach to countering hostile regimes in the Western Hemisphere, with implications for Cuba, Iran, and China's strategic positioning in Latin America. Venezuela's leadership change may lower global oil prices and benefit energy companies and oilfield service providers. Oil prices are likely to decline further with positive economic consequences globally, boosting real household income and helping reduce inflation measures. Inflation has moderated meaningfully from its 2022 peak and while it remains above the Fed's target, pressures are expected to ease further into 2026. AI-driven productivity gains may help offset wage pressures, keeping inflation and interest rates relatively contained. |
| Oct 16 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Data centers, infrastructure, productivity, semiconductors |
NVDA JPM GS MSFT META TW |
Artificial Intelligence continued to be the dominant driver of investment growth, fueling demand for data centers, semiconductors, and infrastructure. The letter highlights cross-sector AI adoption in finance, health care, retail, and manufacturing, suggesting sustained capital expenditure and productivity gains. ACM maintains broad exposure to AI enablers across industries as global investment accelerates. |
| Jul 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | fiscal policy, Macro, Sentiment, tariffs, uncertainty | - | The letter highlights elevated uncertainty stemming from tariffs, fiscal policy, and central bank signaling. Management believes markets overreact to short-term macro narratives, creating tactical opportunities. The outlook stresses adaptability while avoiding aggressive macro forecasting. |
| Apr 28 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
EnergyEnergy plays a critical role in AI infrastructure economics, with data centers becoming major electricity consumers. Rising power costs compress margins while grid constraints and regulatory scrutiny influence deployment timelines. The manager emphasizes that unlike software-driven growth, AI compute cannot be scaled independently of physical energy reality. |
Data Centers Grid Power Infrastructure Utilities | |
GeopoliticalThe capture of Nicolás Maduro represents a dramatic change in U.S. foreign policies under the Monroe-Trump Doctrine. This signals a more assertive approach to countering hostile regimes in the Western Hemisphere, with implications for Cuba, Iran, and China's strategic positioning in Latin America. |
Venezuela Cuba Iran China Policy | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AI Expansion |
|
| 2025 Q2 |
MacroUncertainty |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CUDA, datacenter, leadership, Pricing power, semiconductors, TAM expansion, valuation | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | AI, banking, Digital transformation, efficiency, productivity, profitability, ROE, Technology moat | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | GS | Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | NYSE | Capital markets, earnings, investment banking, leverage, recovery, Regulation, valuation | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud, Copilot, Enterprise software, FCF, growth, productivity, recurring revenue | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | META | Meta Platforms Inc. | Communication Services | Social Media & Advertising | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, AI, digital advertising, growth, infrastructure, Margins, monetization, operating leverage | Login |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | Chuck Lieberman | TW | TSMC | Consumer Discretionary | Semiconductors & Foundry | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity, diversification, Foundry, manufacturing, Onshoring, profitability, ROIC, semiconductors | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| AVGO | The primary contributors to its performance were our exposures to Broadcom |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| SLB | Venezuela's regime change should benefit energy companies operating in the country, as well as oilfield service providers such as SLB, which are likely to play a critical role in restoring and expanding Venezuela's oil production capacity. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
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