| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 1.4% | - |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 1.4% |
The Airlie Australian Share Fund returned 1.4% net in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P/ASX 200's 4.7% gain. The disappointing quarter was driven by poor reporting season results from key holdings CSL and EBOS, which saw sharp multiple de-ratings despite modest earnings revisions. The fund's underweight position to Big Four banks also created headwinds as Westpac and ANZ rallied strongly. Offsetting these detractors were strong performances from Nick Scali, Charter Hall, Ampol and Aspen Group. The manager notes the S&P/ASX 200 continues to look expensive at 20.7x forward P/E, driven largely by Big Four bank valuations, with little EPS growth forecast at the index level. Gold significantly outperformed during the quarter, up 16%, as central banks accelerate reserve diversification away from the USD. The manager believes extraordinarily high market volatility, with 20% of ASX companies moving 10%+ on earnings results, should provide opportunities for active managers with well-researched intrinsic value views to capitalize on attractive pricing dislocations.
Focus on high conviction active management to capitalize on market volatility and identify attractive risk-reward opportunities despite elevated market valuations.
The manager believes high volatility should provide opportunities for high conviction active managers to buy and sell businesses at attractive prices, with the main requirement being a well-researched view on intrinsic value. Despite elevated index level valuations, they continue to find attractive pockets of risk-reward and tilt the portfolio accordingly.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ALD.AX, ALL.AX, APZ.AX, BHP.AX, BSL.AX, CBA.AX, CHC.AX, CSL.AX, EBO.AX, GMG.AX, MQG.AX, NCK.AX, NWSA, RMD, SOL.AX | Australia, banks, equities, gold, real estate, value, volatility | - | Airlie Australian Share Fund underperformed in Q3 2025 due to CSL and EBOS earnings disappointments and underweight Big Four banks positioning. Despite elevated ASX valuations at 20.7x forward P/E with minimal EPS growth, the manager sees high market volatility creating opportunities for active stock selection based on intrinsic value analysis. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 300750.SZ, 6920.T, 9988.HK, CLS, CRM, HAL, HIMS, ICE, ISRG, KGHM.WA, KRN.DE, KVUE, LRCX, PEP, TSM, UMC.PA, UNH, UPWK, VNA.DE, ZAL.DE | AI, China, energy, Germany, healthcare, semiconductors, value | - | ACATIS capitalized on AI infrastructure boom with semiconductor equipment manufacturers driving strong September returns. Chinese stimulus sparked recovery in technology names like Alibaba. New investments target data centers, telemedicine, and critical metals. German digitalization efforts and Argentine reforms provide regional catalysts. Maintaining value discipline while positioning for AI expansion and selective emerging market recovery opportunities. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 1211.HK, 6857.T, 8035.T, AMAT, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, CRM, DDOG, ENTG, FTNT, GOOGL, INTU, LSEG.L, MDT, MSFT, NOW, ORCL, TMO, ZS | AI, Bubble, Cloud, growth, infrastructure, semiconductors, technology |
AVGO ORCL ASML META 1211.HK MSFT |
Strong Q3 performance driven by AI infrastructure leaders Oracle, Broadcom, and ASML despite growing bubble concerns. Manager trimmed winners for risk management while adding Medtronic and BYD on underappreciated growth potential. Maintains conviction in long-term AI opportunity through quality companies with defendable moats, balancing opportunities with rising risks through fundamental research and selective positioning. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | AI, Federal Reserve, Labor Market, Rate Cuts, small caps, technology | - | Markets hit new highs in Q3 as the Fed began cutting rates and AI investment accelerated to the fastest pace since the late 1990s. Small caps outperformed on rate cut expectations while technology spending drove economic growth. The market expects a soft landing but Q4 will be data-dependent with AI valuations creating potential volatility despite multi-year investment cycle fundamentals. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Fed policy, inflation, Market Volatility, rates, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Trade policy volatility dominated 2025's first half, driving dramatic market swings from Q1 selloff to Q2 recovery. Despite tariff uncertainty causing inflation expectations to rise and Fed policy to pause, markets proved resilient with S&P 500 ending near records. The rebound suggests markets view tariff impacts as modest and temporary, though uncertainty persists. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | AI, diversification, growth, Optimism, technology, Valuations | - | Financial Synergies maintains an optimistic Q3 2025 outlook despite elevated 38x Shiller P/E valuations, citing declining rates, controlled inflation, and AI-driven opportunities. Unlike the dot-com era, current market leaders have strong fundamentals. The firm advocates diversified portfolios across market caps and sectors to manage concentration risk while emphasizing that patient, long-term investors are historically rewarded. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Estate Planning, financial planning, Market Highs, Wealth management | - | Financial Synergies' educational newsletter highlights their internship program, provides estate planning guidance, and addresses investor concerns about market all-time highs. Historical data shows investing at market peaks has produced solid returns. The firm emphasizes combining technical wealth management expertise with understanding clients' emotional needs and deeper motivations for comprehensive financial planning. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | META | AI, Data centers, Investment, returns, technology, valuation | ADI|BDX|FI|FND|HAS|META|MSFT|MSI|ORCL|TMO | Massive AI infrastructure investments could unlock trillions or prove wasteful. Meta's $70 billion data center spending exemplifies smart AI deployment - using existing advertising strengths rather than seeking new models. Success requires only 4% revenue growth acceleration for double-digit returns. Companies controlling their own execution have higher success probability than those depending on external factors. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 2330.TW, 300012.SZ, 300124.SZ, 9999.HK, BBCA.JK, CHILE.SN, FEMSAUBD.MX, NATU3.SA, RADL3.SA | AI, Brazil, China, emerging markets, Indonesia, Quality, semiconductors, valuation | - | Aikya's emerging markets fund underperformed in October despite positive returns, missing semiconductor rally due to quality-focused discipline. Indonesian banks benefited from improved sentiment while Chinese holdings faced correction headwinds. Latin American names showed mixed performance amid consumer slowdown. Fund maintains long-term focus on quality companies at sensible valuations rather than momentum chasing. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ANTHROPIC, HOLOGIC, OPENAI | AI, deployment, energy, private equity, Take-privates, value creation | - | BXPE delivered 3.9% Q3 returns through record $1.3 billion deployment across high-conviction themes. Strong broad-based performance with 80% of investments appreciating, led by Franchisors and Digitization. Major moves include expanding energy exposure tenfold, executing large take-privates like Hologic, and strategic AI investments in OpenAI and Anthropic. Young portfolio with significant upside potential. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | 000660.KS, 004800.KS, 005930.KS, 009540.KS, 028260.KS, 090430.KS, 4527.T, 9301.T, C6L.SI, CDI.PA, ENT.L, G.DE, LVMH.PA, NWSA, REA.AX, VIV.PA | Discounts, Engagement, Holdings, Korea, NAV, value | NWSA | AVI Global Trust focuses on deeply discounted companies, building 9.5% Korean exposure amid governance reforms where 68% of KOSPI trades below book value. Korean holdings delivered 25% weighted returns. News Corp discount widened to 46% despite Dow Jones growth, but family trust resolution removes structural reform impediment. Compelling outlook for engaged value investors. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold price up 16% in the quarter, outperforming S&P 500 by ~30% year-to-date. Historical correlation with US real yields has broken down, coinciding with Russia-Ukraine war and Western nations freezing Russian central bank funds. Central banks accelerating reserve diversification away from USD. |
Gold Reserve Diversification Central Banks USD Monetary |
AustraliaS&P/ASX 200 continues to look expensive relative to history, much due to Big Four banks. Index finished quarter on forward P/E of 20.7x, up 6% despite little EPS growth forecast. High volatility with almost 20% of ASX companies seeing 10%+ moves on earnings results. |
Australia ASX Valuations Banks Volatility | |
Real EstateCharter Hall rallied on optimism that rates have peaked, supported by strong FY26 EPS guidance. Aspen Group reported strong earnings ahead of expectations, with market gaining visibility on affordable housing development pipeline and margins from these developments. |
Real Estate REITs Housing Interest Rates Development | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI infrastructure continues driving strong performance across semiconductor equipment manufacturers and data center suppliers. Companies like Lam Research, TSMC, and Bloom Energy are benefiting from continued AI expansion, with Bloom Energy securing potentially its largest project for a 900 MW power plant to supply AI data centers. |
Semiconductors Data Centers Infrastructure Equipment Power |
SemiconductorsWafer equipment manufacturers performed exceptionally well with strong demand for chip manufacturing equipment. TSMC maintains technological leadership and pricing power in the AI supply chain, while companies like Lasertec reported higher-than-expected business numbers with 18% sales revenue growth. |
Equipment Manufacturing TSMC Foundries Capacity | |
ChinaChinese equities rallied significantly on government stimulus targeting property, stock and consumer sectors, alongside anti-involution policies. Alibaba surged on stronger-than-expected results with 26% revenue growth in Cloud Intelligence Group and triple-digit AI-related product revenue growth. |
Stimulus Government Technology Cloud Recovery | |
Energy TransitionInvestment opportunities identified in companies supporting the digital infrastructure transformation, including power supply solutions for data centers and critical metals recycling. KGHM Polska Miedz represents strategic importance as Europe's only notable copper and silver producer for digital infrastructure development. |
Copper Silver Infrastructure Metals Power | |
HealthcareMixed performance in healthcare with medical technology companies facing challenges. Intuitive Surgical experienced valuation correction despite maintaining technological leadership, while telemedicine companies like Hims & Hers offer growth opportunities in discreet online healthcare access. |
Medical Technology Telemedicine Innovation Valuation Growth | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIThe AI arms race among technology companies is in full flight with massive investments in AI infrastructure. The long-term opportunity in Generative AI keeps growing as adoption rates increase and usage broadens, with 77% of companies using Claude AI for automation patterns. However, risks are rising with more signs of an AI bubble forming. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Automation LLMs Bubble |
SemiconductorsASML maintains an almost unassailable competitive position for the next 10-15 years with High NA EUV technology being key for future growth. The company has a clear roadmap supporting chip shrink until at least 2040, positioning it for sustained double-digit growth. |
EUV Lithography High NA Chip Manufacturing Technology | |
CloudOracle's explosive cloud growth could make Oracle Cloud equal or larger than Google Cloud Platform by FY29-30, driven by massive AI training and inferencing contracts. Microsoft's Azure accelerated to 39% growth with strong momentum in AI-powered services as businesses rush to digitalize. |
Infrastructure Azure Oracle Cloud Hyperscaler Growth | |
Electric VehiclesBYD stands out as the most complete and defensible EV platform globally with deep vertical integration and 15-25% cost advantage over legacy OEMs. The company's expertise in electronics and batteries from its origin as the world's largest mobile battery maker provides a unique edge. |
BYD Vertical Integration Battery Technology Cost Advantage Manufacturing | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AITechnology-related investment grew 14% year-over-year in Q2, the fastest pace since the late 1990s, driven by AI industry buildout including high-performance computer chips, cloud architecture, and data center construction. Management teams across the AI supply chain report strong demand with spending plans in the hundreds of billions and order backlogs spanning years. AI enthusiasm has fueled outsized gains in technology and semiconductor stocks, though some question whether spending is outpacing potential revenue growth. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Cloud Technology |
RatesThe Federal Reserve delivered a 0.25% rate cut in September, ending its 9-month pause, framed as a risk management cut to keep economic expansion on track. The central bank updated its policy forecast to include two more rate cuts before year-end with potential for more in 2026. Treasury yields fluctuated but ended the quarter lower, with longer-maturity bonds outperforming due to higher sensitivity to falling interest rates. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Treasury Bonds | |
Small CapsSmall-cap stocks rallied sharply in anticipation of the Fed's rate cut, with the Russell 2000 surpassing its previous high from 2021 and returning nearly 12%. Small caps posted their biggest quarter of outperformance over the S&P 500 since Q1 2021 as investors bet that rate cuts would benefit smaller companies. Cyclical sectors broadly outperformed their defensive counterparts. |
Russell 2000 Rate Cuts Cyclical | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Trade PolicyTrade policy uncertainty dominated the first half of 2025, with escalation in Q1 followed by de-escalation in Q2. The administration implemented targeted tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, then announced sweeping global tariffs before pivoting toward trade agreements. This volatility created distinct market environments across quarters. |
Tariffs China Trade War Policy Uncertainty |
InflationTariff uncertainty caused inflation expectations to rise sharply despite actual inflation remaining subdued. Consumer expectations diverged significantly from trailing inflation data, creating a debate about whether companies will pass through tariff costs or absorb them to remain competitive. |
Expectations Consumer Prices Tariffs Fed Policy | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve held rates steady due to trade policy uncertainty, facing a difficult tradeoff between potential tariff-driven inflation and economic growth concerns. Markets expect gradual rate cuts beginning in September, with approximately 1.25% of cuts anticipated over the next 18 months. |
Fed Policy Rate Cuts Monetary Policy Uncertainty | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI represents incredible potential from curing diseases to improving productivity to reshaping how we live and work. The rapid rise of artificial intelligence is unsettling at times but offers endless opportunities. Current market leaders in AI are well established with strong profitability and healthy balance sheets, unlike unprofitable dot-com companies of the past. |
Technology Innovation Productivity Growth Disruption |
ValuationsCurrent Shiller price-to-earnings ratio of 38x is well above the historical average of 27x, indicating elevated market valuations. While stocks appear expensive by historical standards, valuations do not reliably predict near-term returns and markets can continue rising if business fundamentals remain strong. Opportunities exist across different market segments with more attractive valuations in Large Value and Small Caps. |
Metrics Earnings Premium Historical Fundamentals | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIMassive investments in AI infrastructure could unlock trillions in economic output or prove wasteful. While skepticism is consensus, companies investing hundreds of billions believe these investments are necessary to preserve competitive advantages. The market has added over $7 trillion to tech valuations based on AI productivity expectations. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Productivity Investment Valuation |
Data CentersMeta increased annual capex from $20-30 billion to over $70 billion for data center development. The extra investment needs to increase revenue growth by 4% annually to generate double-digit returns. Returns depend on improved ad targeting effectiveness rather than finding new business models. |
Capex Infrastructure Returns Investment Computing | |
| 2023 Q3 |
AIThe market's continued excitement for AI potential led semiconductor stocks materially higher, with Taiwanese and Korean markets at record highs. While the fund believes in AI's long-term potential, they maintain quality and valuation discipline rather than chasing momentum. |
Semiconductors Taiwan Korea Technology |
QualityAikya's investment approach relies on quality as a key pillar, investing exclusively in high-quality companies. The strategy emphasizes quality discipline alongside valuation considerations in investment decisions. |
Investment Philosophy Discipline Fundamentals | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIBlackstone continues to focus on the picks and shovels of AI through infrastructure investments such as chips and data centers, while the market's maturation has opened the door for measured exposure to the application layer. BXPE invested in OpenAI and Anthropic — two category-defining AI research labs with complementary strategies in consumer and enterprise use cases. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Applications Research Enterprise |
Energy TransitionAfter two decades of stagnation, US electricity demand is projected to rise by 40% over the next 10 years. One key reason is data centers, where over 80% of hyperscalers and operators cite power availability as their top growth constraint. Electrification and reshoring of manufacturing are also fueling this secular trend. |
Electricity Power Data Centers Electrification Manufacturing | |
DigitizationDigitization — investments tied to the global shift online — was a top contributor, accounting for 21% of Q3 performance. This theme represents the ongoing transformation of business models toward digital platforms and services. |
Digital Online Transformation Platforms Services | |
| 2023 Q1 |
South KoreaBuilding exposure to Korea due to ongoing corporate governance reform agenda and rich array of deeply undervalued companies. Korean names have contributed +1.1% to NAV with weighted average total return of +25%, driven by strong performances at HD Hyundai, Hyosung Corporation and Samsung C&T. 68% of KOSPI index still trading below book value and 61% without sell-side coverage. |
Corporate Governance Value Discounts Reform |
ValueFocus on companies whose share prices stand at a discount to estimated underlying net asset value. News Corp trading at significant discount with REA stake accounting for 75% of market cap. Amorepacific Holdings now trades on widest ever discount of 52%. Outlook compelling for nimble, fundamental-focused investors with experience of active engagement. |
Discounts NAV Undervaluation Engagement |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | ORCL | Oracle Corporation | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NYSE | AI infrastructure, Cloud computing, growth, hyperscaler, Software, transformation | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | 1211.HK | BYD Company Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | Bull | HKEX | automotive, battery technology, China, Electric Vehicles, growth, vertical integration | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI technology, digital advertising, growth, social media, user engagement | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Enterprise software, growth, Networking, semiconductors, Xpu | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Information Technology | Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI technology, Azure, Cloud computing, enterprise, growth, Software | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | EUV technology, growth, Lithography, Monopoly, Netherlands, semiconductor equipment | Login |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | NWSA | News Corp | Communication Services | Publishing | Bull | NASDAQ | Asset Spin-off, Australia, discount to NAV, Dow Jones, Family Trust, information services, media, Publishing, REA Group, value unlock | Login |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | Airlie Australian Share Fund | ADI|BDX|FI|FND|HAS|META|MSFT|MSI|ORCL|TMO | Meta Platforms Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Ad Targeting, Artificial Intelligence, capital expenditure, cash flow generation, data centers, digital advertising, revenue per user, social media, technology infrastructure, user engagement | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CSL.AX | CSL fell sharply after the release of its FY25 results, with the market concerned that the medium-term growth rate of earnings for the Behring division would be slower than expected going forward. Despite modest earnings revisions, the valuation of CSL de-rated significantly as a result. While management continue to attest to robust demand for the Company's core plasma proteins, the market remains unconvinced, and uncertainty about the Company's current competition position means CSL will remain in the sin bin until its financial results prove otherwise. We believe the Company is trading on 16x FY27 P/E, which screens attractively for a business of this quality, both in an absolute sense and relative to the broader market, and added to our position in the period. |
| EBO.AX | An underlying 2H25 EBITDA miss of 5% and lower-than-expected FY26 EBITDA guidance reflected lower margins in Community Pharmacy (heightened competition) and cyclical pressure on Animal Care sales (post-covid pet boom). The Institutional Healthcare division was a bright spot, particularly the high-margin Medical Technology distribution business with 14% organic sales growth. Overall, EBOS remains a high-quality operation trading at a market multiple, and we remain comfortable with our holding. |
| NCK.AX | Nick Scali reported exceptionally strong same-store sales across its Australian network in 2H25 (+21%), with a trading update confirming sales momentum is continuing into FY26 (written sales orders +9% in July on pcp). The Company's expansion into the UK is starting to bear fruit, with the Company delivering a material increase in gross margin on refurbished stores. The stock traded up to a valuation of ~27x P/E, which we used as an opportunity to size down our position modestly. |
| CHC.AX | CHC rallied through the quarter on optimism that rates have peaked, supported by strong FY26 EPS guidance and positive momentum from new fund launches and mandate wins. We have reduced our position size into share price strength. |
| ALD.AX | Ampol (ALD) reported a 1H25 result in line with market expectations; however, sentiment towards near-term refining margins has improved significantly, and the announcement of a deal to acquire the EG Group network of Australian fuel stations was received positively. Ampol is paying an attractive price for the network, at ~8x EBITDA. In time we believe the synergies extracted will imply a multiple paid closer to ~5x, rendering the deal hugely accretive to ALD shareholders. We note the deal is still subject to ACCC approval; however, this appears well planned for by management. We added to our position in the quarter, funded largely through a rotation out of Santos after the receipt of the indicative takeover offer from the ADNOC-backed XRG consortium (which has now been rescinded). |
| APZ.AX | Aspen Group reported FY25 earnings that were +22% on pcp and ahead of market expectations. The stock has re-rated significantly since our initial purchase as the market gained greater visibility on the Company's pipeline of affordable housing developments, and greater confidence on the margins and returns that can be extracted from these developments, and the capability within the Company to continue to deploy capital into a part of the housing market that remains materially underserviced. |
| SOL.AX | Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL) is a diversified investment house that we at Airlie see as Australia's own mini-Berkshire Hathaway (the famous investment company led by Warren Buffett). SOL invests its permanent capital for the long term across listed large caps and emerging companies, as well as unlisted property, private equity and private credit. Today it oversees a diversified portfolio (NAV of A$13.2 billion). Since 1 January 2000, SOL has delivered a compound total return of 13.4% p.a., compared with 8.6% p.a. for the S&P/ASX 200 over the same period. The attractiveness of the SOL investment has only increased by the recent merger with Brickworks. With net cash post-merger, SOL has a green light to pursue accretive investments across its opportunity set. In our view, the combination of permanent capital, a proven team, defensive tilt and a simplified structure positions SOL to continue delivering attractive long-term returns for shareholders. |
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