| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16% | 4.9% | 8.3% |
Alluvial Fund returned 4.9% in Q2 2026 and 8.3% year-to-date, underperforming small-cap and micro-cap benchmarks experiencing a momentum-driven surge in AI and semiconductor stocks with valuations the manager finds incomprehensible. The portfolio consists of boring, dependable cash flow producers trading at large discounts to intrinsic value. Zegona Communications, the largest 2025 contributor, declined 27% from May peaks despite strong operating results and debt refinancing, prompting the manager to reverse earlier profit-taking and add on weakness at 7-8x free cash flow. McDermott International announced a transformative $500 million rights offering that will substantially deleverage the balance sheet and enable larger contract bidding, with shares trading at just 3.2x 2027 EBITDA and potential to double. Other holdings including Garrett Motion, Talen Energy, and GreenDot have clear catalysts ahead. The manager maintains conviction that portfolio discounts to intrinsic value will diminish over time and sees numerous opportunities in companies shunned by momentum-focused investors, emphasizing patience and a longer-term view.
Alluvial Fund invests in boring, dependable cash flow producers with capable management teams trading at large discounts to intrinsic value, focusing on companies shunned by momentum-seeking investors.
The manager does not know when the momentum-driven trend favoring AI and semiconductor stocks will weaken or reverse, but is confident that the portfolio of dependable cash flow producers with capable management teams and robust outlooks trades at a large discount to intrinsic value that will diminish with time. The manager sees numerous opportunities in companies and industries that investors have shunned in favor of flashier ideas and is happy to dedicate capital to these ideas regardless of short-term performance. The manager believes that when investors grow fixated on making fortunes in just a few months or weeks, it pays to take the longer view.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28 2026 | 2026 Q2 | EACO, GDOT, GMS.L, GTX, MCB.L, MDR, TLN | Buybacks, Capital Allocation, energy, Europe, Microcap, Telecom, Turnarounds, value | - | Alluvial Fund's boring portfolio of cash flow producers at deep discounts underperformed momentum-driven benchmarks in Q2 2026. The manager is adding to Zegona Communications at 7-8x free cash flow following a 27% pullback and participating fully in McDermott International's transformative rights offering that substantially deleverages the company. Portfolio trades at large discounts to intrinsic value with clear catalysts ahead across multiple holdings. |
| Apr 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | EACO, FTLF, GMS.L, MCB.L, MDR, PKST, TALEN, ZEGN.L | Consumer Staples, distressed, energy, Geopolitical, real estate, small caps, turnaround, value |
EACO FTLF MCD GMS.L |
Alluvial Fund delivered 3.0% returns in Q1 2026 despite Iran War volatility, benefiting from defensive positioning and the Peakstone REIT acquisition. The manager sees recent small-cap euphoria as premature but remains focused on deeply undervalued securities with predictable cash flows, holding cash for opportunities while continuing the successful strategy of investing in unpopular, overlooked businesses. |
| Feb 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CRAW, EAC, FTLF, GTX, IFOS, MBR.L, MDR, NLOP, SLVM, TLN | Buybacks, dividends, Europe, industrials, materials, small caps, Telecommunications, value |
ZEG LN CRAWA GTX MCB LN NLOP SLVM MCDIF |
Alluvial Fund achieved 41.2% returns in 2025 through value investing in defensive companies like telecommunications, industrials, and materials rather than chasing AI trends. Major wins included Zegona's successful Vodafone Spain turnaround and Crawford United's 7x acquisition exit. The manager maintains conviction in deeply undervalued, quality companies while expanding into new opportunities like phosphate fertilizers and paper manufacturing. |
| Oct 22 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CRAWA, EACO, FLTB, GTX, MAA, RGTI, SENEA, TLN | Communications, contrarian, Europe, REITs, small caps, value |
ZEG LN FTLF MCB LN NLOP CBL ZEG LN FTLF MCB LN NLOP CBL |
Alluvial Fund posted strong Q3 returns of 15.5% by focusing on undervalued companies with tangible assets versus speculative market darlings. Largest holding Zegona Communications executing successful fiber asset sales with more upside expected. Portfolio includes out-of-favor REITs trading at attractive valuations and Expert Markets securities offering high yields. Manager emphasizes downside protection through fundamental value investing. |
| Jul 27 2025 | 2025 Q2 | CBL, CUC, FITB, GTX, MCB.L, MCEM, NEWP.MI, NLOP, PKST, SENEA, SRC.L, TLN, WISH, ZEGN.L | energy, Europe, Food, real estate, small caps, special situations, value |
TLNE ZEG LN MCB LN SENEA SRC LN NLOP PKST CBL WISH |
Alluvial Fund posted 8.5% Q2 returns and 15.6% year-to-date by focusing on deeply undervalued, cash-generating businesses. Major contributor Talen Energy secured long-term Amazon datacenter contract while commercial real estate holdings progress through restructuring. Added European food consolidator NewPrinces and lime producer SigmaRoc. Increasing special situations allocation given market speculation. |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, CBL, CUWI, FTLF, GOOG, GTX, MCEM, SENEA, TLN | international, materials, real estate, small caps, Trade Policy, value |
ZEG.L MCB.L NLOP |
Alluvial Fund gained 6.5% in Q1 while small-cap benchmarks fell sharply, driven by strong performance from UK holdings Zegona Communications and McBride. The fund maintains low tariff exposure through international diversification and continues executing value strategies in discounted commercial real estate and cement companies, positioning for long-term outperformance amid US policy uncertainty. |
| Jan 24 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CBL, CRAWA, CSOL, FITB, GTX, MCB.L, MRC, NLOP, SENEA, TITC.AT, TLN, UBAL, ZEGN.L | Buybacks, Cement, Commercial real estate, international, small caps, value |
NLOP ZEG.L MCB.L TITC.AT CBL |
Alluvial Fund delivered 16.4% returns in 2024 through disciplined value investing in small-cap securities. Portfolio concentrated in deeply discounted holdings like Net Lease Office Properties liquidation and new cement/commercial real estate positions. Multiple companies executing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. Manager maintains patient, diversified approach targeting quality businesses with strong balance sheets trading below intrinsic value. |
| Oct 29 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BAHN.ST, CRAWA, FTLF, MCB.L, MRC, RWWI, TLN, UNID.MI, ZEG.L | Commercial real estate, Europe, international, small caps, Turnarounds, value |
ZEG.L BAHN.ST |
Alluvial Fund's value-focused approach targets boring, profitable companies in overlooked European markets. New holdings Zegona Communications and Bahnhof AB exemplify the strategy of finding undervalued businesses with strong fundamentals. The portfolio is positioned for European market revaluation and commercial real estate recovery, with patient capital deployed across cash-generating companies led by well-incentivized management teams. |
| Jul 24 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CRAWA, FLFB, GTX, MCB.L, MRC, RWWI, SCCO, SENEA, SXP.TO, TLN, UBNC | Community Banks, Micro Cap, real estate, small caps, special situations, Turnarounds, value |
NLOP MCB.L TLN UBNC SENEA SXP.TO |
Alluvial Fund gained 3.9% in Q2 while small-cap benchmarks declined, bringing YTD returns to 10.4%. Manager maintains conviction in small-cap value despite five years of underperformance, citing historical precedent for cycle reversals. Portfolio concentrated in deeply discounted companies like Net Lease Office Properties and McBride trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. |
| May 14 2024 | 2024 Q1 | CRAWA, FRAG.MX, FTLF, GTX, HERDEZ.MX, HMM.TO, MCB.L, MRC, NLOP, SCAB.ST, SENEA, TLN, UNI.MI | Buybacks, Europe, Hotels, Mexico, small caps, value |
MCB.L SCAB.ST |
Alluvial Fund outperformed in Q1 with 6.3% returns, selling P10 Inc. and adding European value plays McBride and Scandic Hotels plus Mexican growth stories. Strong performance from existing holdings including Garrett Motion's aggressive buybacks and Crawford United's industrial strength. Fund closing to new investors while maintaining focus on undervalued small-caps with revaluation catalysts. |
| Jan 25 2024 | 2023 Q4 | CRAWA, FITL, LGT.TO, MRC, NLOP, SENEA | banks, REITs, small caps, special situations, Spin-Offs, value |
NLOP FTLF CRAWA AMRC |
Alluvial delivered strong 2023 returns through disciplined value investing in small-cap special situations. The fund capitalizes on spin-offs like NLOP, undervalued community banks, and companies with active buyback programs. Manager maintains conviction in cash-generating businesses at deep discounts while avoiding speculative investments despite renewed market enthusiasm for high-multiple growth stocks. |
| Oct 24 2023 | 2023 Q3 | FTLF, HMM.TO, LGT.B.TO, MCEM, PX, SENEA, TLN | Data centers, interest rates, nuclear, small caps, special situations, value |
MCEM ATLN.L HMM.TO SENEA |
Alluvial Fund outperformed dramatically in Q3 despite a 1.1% decline, beating small-cap benchmarks by 400-700 basis points. Rising interest rates are creating opportunities in high-quality, debt-free small companies trading at attractive valuations. New investments include nuclear power company Talen Energy and cement producer Monarch Cement, both offering compelling risk-adjusted returns in defensive business models. |
| Jul 15 2023 | 2023 Q2 | CRAWA, EACO, FTLF, HPS.TO, LGT.TO, PREQ, PX, RWWI, SXP.TO, UNI.MI | Canada, industrials, infrastructure, Logistics, Microcap, small caps, value | LGT.TO | Alluvial Fund outperformed with 9.0% Q2 returns by focusing on small, profitable companies at reasonable valuations while avoiding hyper-growth stocks at extreme multiples. Key positions include Logistec Corp entering sales process and infrastructure beneficiaries Hammond Power and Preformed Line Products. Manager maintains conviction in small-cap value despite market preference for growth. |
| Apr 25 2023 | 2023 Q1 | EACO, GTX, HPS.TO, PCOM, PX, SUM.TO | Banking, Canada, Liquidations, Poland, small cap, special situations, value |
HPS.TO AMPX UNI.MI EACO SKYT |
Alluvial Fund gained 3.6% in Q1 despite banking volatility, outperforming small-cap indices. Manager sees exceptional value opportunities in overlooked small-caps, adding Canadian transformer manufacturer Hammond Power Solutions benefiting from electrification trends. Special situations and liquidations contributed positively. Community bank holdings weathered crisis well while regional banks struggled. Disciplined approach continues targeting quality at deep discounts. |
| Oct 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | 6KF GR, FTLF, GTXAP, JOB, PX, RVIC, SUMXF, UD IM | - | - | |
| Oct 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | BFC, CBOBA, GTX, HRBR, JOB, PX, UBAB, UD IM | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | GTX, JOB, LICT, PX | Bear Market, Europe, liquidation, Low Expectations, Microcap, real estate, value |
PX UNI.MI GTX CPTP |
Alluvial Fund outperformed microcap benchmarks in Q2 2022 bear market through defensive value approach. Manager continues finding opportunities in low-expectation companies at attractive valuations, adding JC Penney real estate liquidation position. Despite market fear, sees current environment offering chances to buy quality enterprises at mid-single digit 2025 earnings multiples. |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | HDIV, JOB, PX | Europe, international, Poland, small caps, special situations, value |
PX JOB HRBR |
Small-cap value manager outperformed in difficult Q1 despite 7.3% decline. Core holding P10 Inc offers compelling risk-adjusted returns at current levels. International focus on Europe provides superior opportunity set versus declining US micro-cap universe. Special situations in staffing and airlines offer asymmetric upside. Market pessimism creating attractive entry points across portfolio. |
| Dec 31 2021 | 2021 Q4 | BNCL, CRD/A, GTX, LICT, PX, RWWI | Logistics, Microcap, Poland, special situations, Telecom Infrastructure, value |
PX CRD.A GTX LICT UNI.MI |
Alluvial Fund posted 31% returns in 2021 by investing in undervalued micro-caps globally. The manager discovered exceptional opportunities in Polish markets, adding TIM SA with its valuable 3PL business preparing for IPO. Despite macro headwinds including inflation and supply chain issues, the fund's obscure holdings are positioned to outperform in volatile markets. |
| Jun 30 2021 | 2021 Q2 | GTX, LICT, NUVR, PX, RWWI | Bankruptcy, dividends, Europe, small caps, special situations, Telecom, value | - | Alluvial delivered 7.0% quarterly returns led by Garrett Motion bankruptcy recapitalization play and strong telecom infrastructure performance. Multiple portfolio companies returned significant cash through special dividends while manager maintains disciplined value approach, avoiding speculative growth stocks. Focus remains on cash-generative small companies trading at discounts with shareholder-friendly management teams. |
| Mar 31 2021 | 2021 Q1 | LICT, NUVR, PX, WHLR | Alternative Assets, Europe, infrastructure, Microcap, small caps, Telecom, value |
PX UNI.MI |
Alluvial Fund reached 100% cumulative returns with strong Q1 performance driven by Italian fiber-optic companies and alternative asset manager P10 Holdings. The microcap value strategy continues finding attractive opportunities in cash-generative businesses with strong insider alignment. Manager remains highly optimistic about the pipeline ahead while trimming winners and exiting deteriorating situations. |
| Dec 31 2020 | 2020 Q4 | CRAWA, INTRED.MI, LICT, NUVR, PX, RWWI, WHLR | Alternative Assets, distressed, Microcap, small caps, special situations, Telecom, value | - | Alluvial delivered 28.4% returns in 2020 led by P10 Holdings' 400% gain as the alternative asset manager expanded through acquisitions. The fund targets small, obscure securities at single-digit earnings multiples while markets favor liquid large-caps. Recent distressed preferred investments offer 50-70% upside potential. Manager believes best performance lies ahead despite current market dynamics. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
ValueThe manager emphasizes investing in boring, dependable cash flow producers trading at large discounts to intrinsic value. The portfolio consists of companies shunned by investors in favor of momentum-driven AI and semiconductor stocks. The manager views current valuations in the portfolio as compelling and expects discounts to diminish over time. |
Cash Flow Discount Intrinsic Value Boring Patience |
MomentumThe manager observes that small-cap and micro-cap indexes are having a barnburner year driven by investor appetite for AI beneficiaries, semiconductor companies, and hyper-growth stories. The manager finds valuations incomprehensible and justifiable only under heroic projections, noting that capital is flocking to momentum-driven shares while the Alluvial portfolio remains stuck in neutral. |
AI Semiconductors Hyper-growth Valuations Indexes | |
Telecom InfrastructureZegona Communications, the largest 2025 contributor, continues reporting strong financial results with revenue and cash flow growth. The company refinanced debt, reducing annual interest expense by €60 million. Despite a 27% share price decline from May peaks, the manager views current valuations of 7-8x free cash flow as far too cheap for a successful turnaround with additional margin enhancement and asset sales ahead. The manager is adding to the position on weakness. |
Zegona Vodafone Spain Turnaround Free Cash Flow Buybacks | |
Oil ServicesMcDermott International is completing legacy loss-making contracts and approaching sustained profitability. The company announced a $500 million rights offering at a large discount to strengthen its balance sheet, substantially deleveraging and enabling bidding on larger contracts. The manager views the rights offering as tremendously beneficial, greatly reducing financial distress risk. Post-offering, McDermott trades at just 3.2x 2027 EBITDA guidance with potential to double in the next few years. |
McDermott EPC Rights Offering Deleveraging EBITDA | |
Data CentersGarrett Motion is increasingly selling turbochargers to data centers and utilities seeking improved energy efficiency. Investors are waking up to applications beyond automotive. The company continues returning the majority of free cash flow to shareholders. Garrett deserves its new higher multiple, though the manager is monitoring for excessive valuation. Talen Energy is treated as a proxy for AI and data centers, with shares soaring on AI optimism days and sinking on bubble concerns. |
Garrett Motion Turbochargers Energy Efficiency Talen Energy AI Proxy | |
Independent Power ProducersTalen Energy's management has executed a master class since bankruptcy emergence, buying back shares at low prices and reinvesting in modern generation capacity. Merchant power production, especially nuclear, has transformed as electricity demand grows after a decade of stagnation. The United States is structurally short of generation capacity, translating to strong free cash flow. Talen expects free cash flow per share to exceed $40 in 2028, and 9x 2028 free cash flow is too low for a company of Talen's quality and rarity. |
Talen Nuclear Merchant Power Generation Capacity Free Cash Flow | |
BuybacksMultiple portfolio companies are executing aggressive share buyback programs. Zegona exhausted a £200 million buyback and will soon authorize repurchasing up to 14.99% of shares outstanding. Garrett Motion returns the majority of free cash flow to shareholders. Talen Energy bought back a huge quantity of shares at extremely low prices. The manager expects GreenDot's future combined entity to implement buybacks if shares continue trading below tangible book value. |
Share Repurchases Capital Allocation Shareholder Returns Free Cash Flow Valuation | |
Small CapsSmall-cap and micro-cap indexes are having an absolute barnburner of a year, with the Russell MicroCap up 25.6% year-to-date and Russell 2000 up 22.6%. The manager notes that Alluvial Fund's boring portfolio gets stuck in neutral when investors flock to momentum-driven shares. Vistance Networks, after selling businesses, is now a newly-minted micro-cap with market capitalization below $1 billion, making it nearly invisible with all the headaches of being public but without most benefits. |
Russell MicroCap Russell 2000 Performance Visibility Liquidity | |
| 2026 Q1 |
Commercial Real EstateThe fund has profited from unpopular real estate investments, particularly Peakstone Realty Trust which was acquired by Brookfield for $21 per share. Other holdings like Net Lease Office Properties and CBL & Associates have delivered excellent returns. The manager believes the post-Covid distressed commercial real estate cycle has largely played out. |
REIT Industrial Office Distressed Liquidation |
EnergyThe Iran War has created volatility in energy markets and affected portfolio holdings like McDermott International and Gulf Marine Services. McDermott expects EBITDA growth despite Middle East disruptions, while Gulf Marine Services saw vessels evacuated from Qatari waters but the manager views this as a temporary headwind creating buying opportunities. |
Oil Gas Middle East Geopolitical Offshore | |
Consumer StaplesHoldings in staple foods, cleaning products, and communications are viewed as protective during economic stress. McBride plc, a producer of soaps and detergents, has been successful in passing on price increases and announced an acquisition of Eurotab to expand operations and improve margins. |
Defensive Pricing Power Necessities Resilient Margins | |
E-commerceFitLife Brands faced challenges when Amazon's algorithm changes reduced visibility for legacy products, causing an 18% decline in cash contribution. However, the company's Irwin Naturals acquisition is building online sales successfully, reaching $800,000 in monthly sales by March. |
Amazon Algorithm Online Sales Digital Platform | |
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, with 20 million barrels per day disrupted. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Once the Permian's current gas production surge runs its course, supply growth should plateau and eventually decline, setting the stage for materially higher prices. |
Henry Hub LNG Shale Gas Permian | |
SilverSilver surged 51% in Q4 and over 140% for the year, staging a dramatic catch-up rally relative to gold. This magnitude of silver outperformance has historically marked important turning points, suggesting a sell signal for precious metals in the short term. The rally parallels previous episodes in 1973, 1979, 2011, and 2020 that preceded corrections. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs continued their powerful advance with platinum and palladium each surging 28% in Q4. Policy reversals in both the U.S. and Europe are unwinding the aggressive push toward electric vehicles, supporting longer-term demand for internal combustion engines and auto-catalysts. The bearish narrative built on rapid EV adoption is being rewritten. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts ICE | |
CopperCopper gained 17% in Q4 and 41% for the year, but the market has moved back into surplus as reflected in rising exchange inventories. Inventories now exceed 1.2 million tonnes, levels last seen in 2003 when copper traded below $0.90 per pound. The firm has shifted from short-term bullish to bearish on copper. |
Copper Base Metals Inventories | |
CommoditiesThe commodity bull market has barely begun, with most commodities still 46% below historical nominal peaks and 73% below real peaks when adjusted for inflation. Commodities trade near the lowest levels relative to equities in over a century, suggesting the cycle is in early innings rather than late stages. |
Commodity Cycle Capital Cycle Valuation | |
UraniumUranium demand is surging while meeting a fragile supply base, creating fundamental tightness in the market. The theme represents one of the key supply-demand imbalances in the commodity complex, though uranium prices were largely unchanged in Q4. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply Demand | |
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in companies with durable cash flows, valuable assets, and healthy balance sheets rather than speculative companies without revenue. Contrasts Rigetti Computing trading at 2,000x revenue with Mid-America Apartment Communities owning tangible apartments producing real cash flows. |
Assets Cash Flow Balance Sheet Undervalued Tangible |
Real EstateFund maintains 11% allocation to REITs in out-of-favor sectors including Net Lease Office Properties and CBL. Manager sees value in office properties despite sentiment challenges, with Net Lease trading at 18% cap rate and $87 per square foot. |
REITs Office Cap Rate Property Sales Malls | |
CommunicationsLargest position Zegona Communications executing successful asset sales of fiber optic networks, crystallizing value and enabling special dividends. Manager sees 50%+ upside despite strong performance as company focuses on operational improvements and potential additional asset sales. |
Fiber Asset Sales Telecom Infrastructure Networks | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Data CentersTalen Energy announced a major agreement with Amazon to provide 1,920 megawatts of nuclear power to Amazon datacenters through 2042, providing highly valuable long-term earnings stream. The company is shifting from merchant power production toward providing clean energy to datacenters on long-term contracts, with investors valuing shares more like a quasi-regulated utility. |
Nuclear Power Amazon Contracts Utilities |
Commercial Real EstateOut-of-favor commercial real estate continues as a portfolio theme with Net Lease Office Properties eliminating corporate debt and poised to return capital, PeakStone Realty transitioning to industrial outdoor storage REIT, and CBL Properties reducing leverage. The manager sees significant value in these distressed real estate situations. |
REITs Office Industrial Leverage Value | |
FoodNewPrinces is becoming a pan-European leader in branded foods through acquisitions of small food divisions from larger companies like Kraft Heinz. Seneca Foods represents boring yet profitable canned food operations with normalized balance sheet after reducing borrowings by $259 million following harvest cycles. |
Acquisitions Brands Canned Europe Consolidation | |
ValueThe fund focuses on deeply undervalued securities well off the radar of most investors, including basic businesses with predictable cash flows and strong balance sheets. The manager emphasizes buying boring and little-known yet highly profitable companies trading at attractive valuations. |
Undervalued Cash Flow Balance Sheet Boring Profitable | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Commercial Real EstateThe fund continues to execute well in deeply discounted real estate across struggling sectors including office properties and malls. Net Lease Office Properties is marketing buildings for sale including the Binoculars Building leased to Google through 2030, while Peakstone Realty is diversifying into industrial properties. CBL properties is improving its mall portfolio by selling marginal assets and reinvesting in stronger properties. |
Office Malls Industrial Net Lease Asset Sales |
CementThe cement industry has been a major contributor to recent returns with four different producers in different regions. Titan Cement successfully listed its American operations and plans to return proceeds as special dividend, while Monarch Cement pushed through an 8% price increase in January. Both companies still trade at substantial discounts to fair value despite pricing power and good utilization expected for years due to underinvestment following the Financial Crisis. |
Pricing Power Construction Materials Underinvestment Utilization | |
Trade PolicyThe chaotic approach to tariffs is toxic to the business environment as rules change weekly or daily, causing businesses to minimize discretionary spending until stability prevails. The fund has low direct exposure to tariffs with many companies having no US presence or using little US products in supply chains, though some companies like Garrett Motion and FitLife Brands may face challenges if EU and China tariffs are not resolved. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Economic Isolationism Business Environment Uncertainty | |
ValueThe manager demonstrates a value approach by buying deeply discounted assets in out-of-favor sectors, believing every asset has its price. Examples include UK companies like McBride trading at only 6x operating income despite strong fundamentals, and real estate holdings offering cash flow yields north of 20% while trading at significant discounts to net asset value. |
Discount Undervalued Out-of-favor Cash Flow Yield Net Asset Value | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Commercial Real EstateManager holds Net Lease Office Properties in ongoing liquidation, CBL & Associates Properties as mall operator recovery play, and views these as expressions of long-term commercial property recovery theme. Despite office market headwinds and interest rate challenges, expects value realization through asset sales and improving sentiment. |
Office Malls REITs Liquidation Recovery |
ValuePortfolio concentrated in deeply discounted securities trading below intrinsic value estimates. Manager emphasizes buying quality small companies with illiquid shares at attractive valuations, citing examples like Crawford United generating 20% ROE while trading at single-digit P/E multiples. |
Discount Intrinsic Value Illiquid Quality ROE | |
CementNew position in Titan Cement International SA reflects ongoing cement theme. Manager notes wave of infrastructure investment and underinvestment in domestic capacity creating favorable conditions for US cement producers, while European cement companies trade at significant discounts. |
Infrastructure Capacity Valuation Europe US | |
BuybacksMultiple holdings actively repurchasing shares including Garrett Motion dedicating nearly all free cash flow to repurchases and United Bancorporation negotiating creative share buyback from employee plan. Manager views buybacks as value-creating catalyst for undervalued positions. |
Share Count Free Cash Flow Accretive Treasury Value Creation | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Commercial Real EstateManager believes commercial real estate isn't dead despite market pessimism. While future office demand may be permanently lower due to technological and demographic changes, the market is overreacting to the pace of change. Marginal buildings will be demolished or repurposed, lease rates will decline, markets will stabilize, and buildings will become financeable again. |
Office REITs Distressed Recovery Valuation |
ValuePortfolio focuses on finding cheap securities trading below intrinsic value. Manager emphasizes investing in boring, profitable companies with strong cash generation that are overlooked by the market. European markets remain modestly valued compared to expensive US markets, creating opportunities for patient value investors. |
Undervalued Intrinsic Value Discount Cheap Overlooked | |
EuropeLarge allocation to non-US markets, particularly Europe, where companies remain modestly valued while US markets trade at extreme valuations. European economy's stock market cap to GDP ratio hasn't changed much since 2014, while US has doubled from 115% to over 200%. Manager expects the valuation gap to eventually narrow. |
European Markets Valuation Gap International Undervalued Opportunity | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Small CapsManager discusses the prolonged underperformance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap peers, noting small-caps have delivered total returns nearly 50% behind the S&P 500 over the last 5 years. He draws historical parallels to 1995-1999 when large-caps crushed small-caps, followed by small-cap outperformance from 2000-2004. The manager suggests questioning consensus when investors exclaim Why invest in anything else about an asset class. |
Value Outperformance Cycles Consensus Opportunity |
ValueThe portfolio demonstrates classic value investing with holdings trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. Net Lease Office Properties trades at a 17.9% cap rate and $90 per square foot, described as just plain dirt cheap. McBride trades at only 5.4x trailing operating income and 4.4x EBITDA despite strong fundamentals. United Bancorporation trades at 5.7x trailing earnings and 80% of adjusted tangible book value. |
Discount Cheap Undervalued Cap Rate Multiples | |
TurnaroundsMcBride represents a turnaround story well into its recovery from losses caused by inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges. The company has restored profitability through cost-cutting measures and is generating significant cash flow to reduce debt and resume dividends. Talen Energy is described as one of those too-rare cases where everything goes according to plan in its transformation. |
Recovery Restructuring Profitability Cost Cutting Transformation | |
Community BanksThe manager maintains a collection of various banks, mainly ECIP recipients, which are quietly having a good year. He emphasizes that community banks really are a different kind of animal compared to regional banks that faced depositor flight concerns in 2023. United Bancorporation of Alabama has excelled in developing specialty loan offerings and grant-subsidized business lines, resulting in record earnings and return on equity. |
ECIP Specialty Lending ROE Deposits Regional | |
Real EstateNet Lease Office Properties remains the largest holding as it actively winds down through property sales and debt reduction. The company sold five properties and surrendered two to lenders, using proceeds to reduce term loan by $138 million and mezzanine debt by $22 million. Since going public, NLOP has reduced its term loan and mezzanine debt by 47% to $243 million, leaving it modestly levered and highly cash-generating. |
Liquidation Debt Reduction Office Cap Rate Wind Down | |
| 2024 Q1 |
ValueManager focuses on undervalued opportunities across multiple holdings including McBride trading at 4.4x EBITDA, Scandic Hotels offering double-digit free cash flow yield, and Hammond Manufacturing at 6.4x earnings. Portfolio emphasizes companies trading below intrinsic value with clear catalysts for revaluation. |
Undervalued Discount Bargain Cheap Mispriced |
HotelsNew position in Scandic Hotels represents recovery play in Nordic hotel market. Company operates 280 hotels with variable lease structure reducing operating leverage. Post-COVID revenues at record highs while shares trade below pre-pandemic levels, offering attractive entry point. |
Hospitality Travel Recovery Nordic Leisure | |
MexicoLong-term bullish on Mexico due to positive demographics, growing middle class, and reshoring benefits as US manufacturers reduce China dependency. Invested in Grupo Herdez consumer goods and Corporativo Fragua pharmacy chain as exposure to domestic consumption growth. |
Emerging Markets Demographics Reshoring Consumption Growth | |
BuybacksMultiple portfolio companies actively returning capital through share repurchases. Garrett Motion used nearly all 2024 free cash flow to buy back 10 million shares for $90 million. Hammond Manufacturing also benefiting from capital return programs. |
Capital Return Repurchases Shareholder Returns Cash Flow Value Creation | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Commercial Real EstateManager invested heavily in Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP), a spin-off REIT designed to liquidate office assets. Despite office market pressures from work-from-home policies, NLOP trades at significant discount to conservative asset values and has built-in liquidation catalyst. |
Office REIT Liquidation Spin-off Asset Sales |
Community BanksFund holds various community banks trading at extremely attractive valuations, many with price-to-earnings multiples under 5 and less than 60% of tangible book value. Manager sees value in illiquid bank shares as long as underlying institutions maintain strong lending standards. |
Banks Illiquid Book Value Dividends Acquisition | |
BuybacksMultiple portfolio companies engaged in share repurchases including Crawford United authorizing buyback of 8.5% of shares outstanding, Seneca Foods reducing shares by 6%, and LICT repurchasing 8.6% over three years. Manager views buybacks at low multiples as excellent capital allocation. |
Share Repurchase Capital Allocation Valuation Management | |
| 2023 Q3 |
NuclearTalen Energy owns the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, a two-unit nuclear power plant with 2.5 gigawatts of capacity. The Inflation Reduction Act provides supports and subsidies for nuclear power production, creating a de-risked business model for Talen. Nuclear plants could be desirable assets for larger regulated utilities looking to expand their renewables fleets. |
Nuclear Utilities Energy Transition Inflation Reduction Act Power Generation |
Data CentersTalen has a 95% stake in a new data center being built adjacent to the Susquehanna plant. There is strong interest in data centers powered by renewable energy sources. Hammond Manufacturing produces enclosures, cabinets, and racks for electrical applications that have seen great growth in demand thanks to the boom in data center construction. |
Data Centers Renewable Energy Electrical Equipment Infrastructure | |
Small CapsThe fund focuses on small-cap and micro-cap stocks, which have experienced significant underperformance. The Russell 2000 is 25% lower than its June 2021 peak and the Russell Micro-Cap Index is off 40%. The manager views this as creating opportunities in high-quality holdings at attractive valuations. |
Small Caps Value Market Dislocation Opportunity | |
RatesInterest rates are the driving force behind the re-evaluation of small-cap stocks. Now that cash earns a safe 5%, risky investments have lost their appeal. The repricing of maturing debt capital will be a headwind for companies that must access meaningful external capital. Rising rates also impacted the Logistec sale price. |
Interest Rates Cost of Capital Funding Environment Valuation | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Small CapsManager focuses on the smallest and least known profitable companies that are insufficiently researched, finding best opportunities in companies that remain tethered to reality beneath the several dozen companies that dominate financial media attention. The fund specializes in tiny opportunities and maintains this flexibility despite growing to $40 million in assets. |
Microcap Value Research |
LogisticsLogistec operates terminals at dozens of ports in Eastern Canada and the US, described as a great business with strong pricing power and consistent demand. The company has been profitable for 50+ years and is undergoing a sales process with expected value of $90+ per share versus current $65. |
Ports Terminals Infrastructure | |
Infrastructure SpendingHammond Power Solutions benefits from a wave of spending on infrastructure build-out and electrification that will continue for years. Preformed Line Products also benefits from the nation racing to upgrade power grids and expand broadband internet access, making it an auspicious time for the company. |
Electrification Power Grid | |
ValueManager sees no shortage of bargains in companies that remain tethered to reality, particularly in the smallest and least known firms. The fund finds companies trading at 6-7 times sustainable free cash flow while growth stocks trade at extreme multiples like 15x revenue for C3.ai. |
Bargains Undervalued Cash Flow | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Small CapsSmall company shares remain out-of-favor compared to large companies. The gulf between securities' trading prices and intrinsic values is as large as the manager has ever observed. Despite good Q4 2022 earnings, market reaction was muted. |
Small Cap Value Micro Cap |
Regional BanksBanking crisis caused 25% drop in regional banking index. Manager believes regional banks have the toughest path forward compared to mega-banks or community banks. Expects large banks and community banks to benefit from deposit flows leaving regional banks. |
Regional Banks Banking Credit Stress | |
Community BanksManager holds four well-capitalized community banks that received ECIP capital, making them some of the nation's best-capitalized banks. Believes community banks can build personal relationships and sticky deposit bases, and will capture surprising deposit flows. |
Community Banks Banking ECIP | |
Energy TransitionDemand for transformers has exploded as electrification of the world economy accelerates. Hammond Power Solutions runs factories at full capacity but cannot keep pace with orders, planning $40 million capacity investment. |
Electrification Transformers Grid Upgrade | |
PolandPolish securities offer some of the world's best valuations. Holdings include growing companies trading at attractive multiples. Market is volatile and prone to periods where mood overshadows results, but buying quality at great prices works given time. |
Poland Value Emerging Markets | |
| 2022 Q2 |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in companies priced with low market expectations rather than high-quality companies at any price. Focuses on finding situations where modest success leads to much higher stock prices due to low initial expectations. |
Value Low Expectations Margin of Safety |
Commercial Real EstateNew position in Copper Property CTL Pass Through Trust, a liquidating trust owning JC Penney store properties. Expects 20% IRR from liquidation proceeds and distributions over three years. |
Real Estate Liquidation Triple Net Lease | |
Alternative Asset ManagersP10 Inc continues growing contractually guaranteed fee revenue despite challenging fundraising environment. Company adding permanent capital vehicles and making strategic investments. |
Asset Management Fee Revenue Permanent Capital | |
BroadbandUnidata continues building out broadband network in Italy despite European recession concerns. Joint venture for data center development expected to double cash flow by 2025. |
Broadband Italy Data Centers | |
| 2022 Q1 |
Small CapsManager emphasizes the declining number of small public companies in the US due to regulatory burden, while foreign markets offer six times as many small companies. US has only 2,800 micro-caps compared to much larger opportunity sets in Sweden, France, and Australia despite their smaller economies. |
MicroCap Regulation Opportunity Set |
Europe35% of portfolio invested in Western European and Scandinavian companies. Manager sees better quality small companies in places like Sweden, Norway, Italy, and France that are profitable with solid balance sheets. International investing has been good to the fund despite lackluster European economic growth. |
Sweden Italy Diversification | |
PolandNew investments in Polish market with high quality and low valuations, but recognizing political and economic risks. Polish holdings outperformed indexes despite war impact, with TIM SA revenues up 55% and Auto Partner revenues up 34% in Q1. |
TIM SA Auto Partner Geopolitical Risk | |
StaffingGEE Group operates temporary labor and recruiting focused on professional markets. Company recovered from near-insolvency with $12 million cash and zero debt, trading at 4.2x EBITDA with mid-teens free cash flow yield, less than half the valuation of similar companies. |
GEE Group Temporary Labor Roll-up | |
AirlinesHarbor Diversified owns Air Wisconsin which faces contract expiration with United Airlines in February 2023. Even in liquidation scenario, company worth well in excess of trading price with over $2 per share in cash and securities net of debt and future lease payments. |
Harbor Diversified Air Wisconsin Special Situation | |
| 2021 Q4 |
LogisticsTIM SA operates a fast-growing third-party logistics business that emerged from its e-commerce transition. The 3PL segment serves external clients including IKEA and is being prepared for a separate IPO in first half 2022. The manager views this business as worth more than 70% of TIM SA's current market cap. |
3PL Warehousing E-commerce IKEA IPO |
E-commerceE-commerce growth in Poland has accelerated TIM SA's business transformation and 3PL segment development. The company successfully transitioned to online sales over recent years, creating warehouse capacity that now serves other Polish companies' fulfillment needs. |
Online Sales Poland Fulfillment Warehouse | |
Telecom InfrastructureLICT Corporation provides essential communications infrastructure and participated in FCC Auction 110, successfully bidding $7.7 million for mid-band spectrum. Unidata is investing $40 million in fiber network expansion from 2022-2024 to serve thousands of new customers. Both companies offer recurring cash flows from critical infrastructure. |
Fiber Spectrum Broadband Infrastructure | |
PolandThe manager spent significant time investigating Polish markets in 2021, finding an embarrassment of riches with scores of profitable, growing small companies trading at single-digit multiples. The Warsaw Exchange offers high-quality firms with strong balance sheets and insider ownership, though political risks limit position sizing. |
Warsaw Exchange Valuations Political Risk | |
| 2021 Q2 |
Special SituationsGarrett Motion preferred shares acquired through post-bankruptcy recapitalization offered attractive risk-adjusted returns. The rights offering showed classic signs of special situation opportunity with sophisticated hedge funds backstopping the deal and complex paperwork designed to limit retail participation. |
Bankruptcy Recapitalization Rights Offering Distressed |
Telecom InfrastructureEuropean fiber and broadband providers Intred, Unidata, and Bredband2 benefited from continued customer additions and operating leverage resulting in excellent cash flow. LICT Corporation continues share buybacks and strategic review for potential value creation. |
Fiber Broadband Infrastructure Cash Flow | |
DividendsMultiple portfolio companies returned significant cash to shareholders through special dividends. Crossroads Systems announced $40 per share special dividend, Calloway's Nursery paid $1.25 per share year-to-date, and Rand Worldwide distributed $1.75 per share. |
Special Dividends Cash Return Shareholder Value | |
ValueManager focuses on companies with solid cash flows and assets trading at discounts to intrinsic value, contrasting with speculative growth companies like AppHarvest. Tower Properties trades at 9% cap rate while estimated to be worth $45,000 per share versus $19,500 current price. |
Intrinsic Value Cash Flow Asset Value Discount | |
| 2021 Q1 |
BroadbandItalian fiber-optic companies Intred and Unidata are expanding networks with strong economics. Intred operates in Northern Italy while Unidata serves Rome region. Both achieve high cash margins once networks are built and can fund expansion from operating cash flow. |
Fiber Italy Infrastructure Networks Telecom |
Alternative Asset ManagersP10 Holdings remains the largest holding with steady progress across all alternative asset managers including newly acquired entities. All managers are raising capital for new funds and the company is evaluating an uplisting to increase liquidity. |
Private Equity Asset Management Capital Raising Uplisting | |
Small CapsFund focuses on tiny producers of steady cash flow with modest leverage, strong insider ownership and alignment. Manager continues to find encouraging opportunities in this space and expects strong performance ahead. |
Microcap Cash Flow Insider Ownership Value | |
| 2020 Q4 |
Telecom InfrastructureManager holds multiple rural telecom companies including Nuvera Communications and LICT Corporation, both investing heavily in fiber-optic network expansion. Nuvera has shifted revenue mix away from legacy landlines toward broadband and video services, while LICT added 255 miles of fiber and grew broadband customers by 11%. |
Fiber Broadband Rural Infrastructure Networks |
Alternative Asset ManagersP10 Holdings is the fund's largest position at 20.6% weighting, having acquired multiple alternative asset managers including Enhanced Capital Group. The company can now produce over $75 million in annual unlevered cash flow and offers a one-stop shop across private equity, credit, venture capital, and socially responsible investments. |
Private Equity Asset Management Cash Flow Acquisitions | |
Special SituationsManager recently invested in two distressed preferred stocks - Pegroco Invest AB and Wheeler REIT Series D preferreds. Both are backed by valuable assets and cash flow with strong likelihood of exiting distressed status within 6-18 months, offering upside potential of 50-70%. |
Distressed Preferreds Restructuring Turnaround | |
ValueManager appreciates the opportunity to invest in capably-led, well-capitalized companies at single-digit multiples of near-term earnings or cash flow. Crawford United trades at less than 8x normalized earnings despite strong acquisition prospects. |
Multiples Earnings Undervalued Fundamentals |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | MCEM | Monarch Cement Company | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NASDAQ | Cement, Cyclical, debt-free, dividend, family-controlled, infrastructure, materials, Value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | ATLN.L | Talen Energy Corp | Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | Bull | OTC | clean energy, data center, Inflation Reduction Act, Nuclear, Post-Bankruptcy, Power generation, restructuring, utilities | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | HMM.TO | Hammond Manufacturing Corp | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | TSX | Canadian, Currency Hedge, data centers, electrical equipment, Electrification, Industrial, infrastructure, Value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | SENEA | Seneca Foods | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods | Bull | NASDAQ | Canned Vegetables, consumer staples, deep value, defensive, Food Processing, LIFO accounting, market structure, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Jun 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | LGT.TO | Logistec Corporation | Industrials | Marine Ports & Services | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canada, Catalyst, environmental services, infrastructure, Marine Terminals, Port Operations, sale process, Special Situation, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Mechanics Bank of Richmond | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | Expert Market (OTC) | acquisition target, banking, Catalyst, Expert Market, Ford Financial, illiquid, regional bank, Special Situation, Value | Login |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | EACO | EACO Corp. | Electronics & Computer Distribution | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | - | Distributor, Electrical Components, Fasteners, growth, Industrial, OTC, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | FTLF | FitLife Brands Inc. | Packaged Foods | Personal Products | Neutral | NASDAQ | acquisition, Amazon, consumer staples, e-commerce, leverage, Nutritional Supplements, Sports Nutrition, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | MCD | McDermott International Ltd. | Restaurants | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | - | Bankruptcy, construction, EBITDA, energy, engineering, Middle East, Offshore, Refinancing, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | GMS.L | Gulf Marine Services PLC | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | deleveraging, geopolitical, London-listed, Middle East, Offshore, Oil & Gas, renewable energy, Support Vessels, Value | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Telecom Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | asset sales, buybacks, capital returns, deleveraging, Telecom-Turnaround | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | CRAWA | Crawford United Corporation | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | conglomerate discount, Hidden-Assets, Industrials, M&A, valuation upside | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | GTX | Garrett Motion Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Auto Parts | Bull | NASDAQ | Auto parts, buybacks, capital allocation, Ev-Transition, Free Cash Flow | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | MCB LN | McBride plc | Consumer Staples | Household Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | balance sheet, buybacks, consumer staples, dividends, valuation gap | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cap rates, capital returns, Liquidation, NAV discount, Property-Dispositions | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | SLVM | Sylvamo Corporation | Materials | Paper & Forest Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capacity-Reduction, Cyclicals, Free Cash Flow, industry consolidation, Paper | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | MCDIF | McDermott International Ltd. | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | Bull | Dubai Financial Market | backlog growth, energy infrastructure, operating leverage, Refinancing, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, deleveraging, Fiber, monetization, Multiple arbitrage, Re-rating, Special dividend | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | FTLF | FitLife Brands | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, brand portfolio, consolidation, Distribution, Execution, Free Cash Flow, Roll-up | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | MCB LN | McBride plc | Financials | Household Products | Bull | NYSE | dividend, Europe, Margins, Private-label, rerating, takeover, valuation | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REIT | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, cap rate, deleveraging, Dispositions, NAV discount, Office, REIT | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | CBL | CBL & Associates Properties | Real Estate | Retail REIT | Bull | NYSE | deleveraging, Distributions, FFO, Float, Malls, Refinancing, Retail real estate | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, deleveraging, Fiber, monetization, Multiple arbitrage, Re-rating, Special dividend | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | FTLF | FitLife Brands | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition, brand portfolio, consolidation, Distribution, Execution, Free Cash Flow, Roll-up | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | MCB LN | McBride plc | Financials | Household Products | Bull | NYSE | dividend, Europe, Margins, Private-label, rerating, takeover, valuation | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REIT | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, cap rate, deleveraging, Dispositions, NAV discount, Office, REIT | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | CBL | CBL & Associates Properties | Real Estate | Retail REIT | Bull | NYSE | deleveraging, Distributions, FFO, Float, Malls, Refinancing, Retail real estate | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | TLNE | Talen Energy, Corp. | Other | Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | Bull | - | Contracts, data centers, Free Cash Flow, Nuclear, utilities | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, corporate actions, Fiber, restructuring, Telecom | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | MCB LN | McBride plc | Financials | Household Products | Bull | NYSE | Automation, Detergents, dividends, Margins, Private-label | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | SENEA | Seneca Foods, Corp. | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods & Meats | Bull | NASDAQ | agriculture, Canned food, consolidation, deleveraging, working capital | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | SRC LN | SigmaRoc plc | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NYSE | Acquisitions, construction, infrastructure, Lime, Pricing power | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, cap rate, Liquidation, Office, REIT | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | PKST | PeakStone Realty Trust | Real Estate | Industrial REITs | Bull | NYSE | deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Industrial, net asset value, REIT | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | CBL | CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | Real Estate | Retail REITs | Bull | NYSE | leverage, Malls, Refinancing, Retail real estate, Turnarounds | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Dave Waters | WISH | ContextLogic, Inc. | Materials | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | - | acquisition, cash, downside protection, NOLs, Special situations | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | ZEG.L | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Asset Sale, capital return, deleveraging, Fiber Optic, leveraged buyout, Spain, telecommunications, turnaround | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | MCB.L | McBride plc | Consumer Staples | Household Products | Bull | London Stock Exchange | consumer staples, defensive, dividend, household products, Institutional Selling, low valuation, UK, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | NASDAQ | asset sales, Cash distribution, deleveraging, Google Tenant, Liquidation Strategy, NAV discount, Office REIT, Real Estate | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | NASDAQ | asset sales, Cash distribution, debt reduction, Liquidation, Net Lease, office properties, Real Estate, REIT | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | ZEG.L | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Asset Sale, debt reduction, Fiber Optics, LBO, Shareholder Distribution, Spain, telecommunications, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | MCB.L | McBride plc | Consumer Staples | Household Products | Bull | London Stock Exchange | consumer staples, debt reduction, defensive, household products, Private-label, Trade-down, turnaround, UK | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | TITC.AT | Titan Cement International SA | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | Athens Stock Exchange | Cement, EBITDA multiple, Greece, infrastructure, IPO, materials, US operations, valuation arbitrage | Login |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | CBL | CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. | Real Estate | Retail REITs | Bull | NYSE | Asset Consolidation, Bankruptcy Recovery, debt reduction, downside protection, Malls, Real Estate, REIT, retail properties | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | ZEG.L | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Cost Reduction, Fiber networks, infrastructure, leveraged buyout, margin expansion, Operational Improvement, Spain, telecommunications, turnaround | Login |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | BAHN.ST | Bahnhof AB | Communication Services | Internet Services & Infrastructure | Bull | Stockholm Stock Exchange | asset-light, capital efficiency, High Growth, Internet Service Provider, negative working capital, Nordic Expansion, recurring revenue, Sweden | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | NASDAQ | asset sales, cap rate, debt reduction, Liquidation, office properties, Real Estate, REIT, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | MCB.L | McBride Plc | Consumer Staples | Household Products | Bull | London Stock Exchange | cash generation, consumer staples, cost-cutting, debt reduction, EBITDA, Private-label, turnaround, UK | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | TLN | Talen Energy | Utilities | Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers | Bull | NASDAQ | asset sales, capital allocation, energy, Low-Carbon, M&A Target, Nuclear Power, Share Buybacks, utilities | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | UBNC | United Bancorporation of Alabama | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | OTC | Alabama, community bank, Grant Subsidized, regional bank, ROE, Specialty lending, tangible book, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | SENEA | Seneca Foods | Consumer Staples | Packaged Foods | Bull | NASDAQ | Canned Vegetables, Capacity utilization, consumer staples, Free Cash Flow, industry consolidation, manufacturing, Packaged Foods | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | SXP.TO | Supremex | Materials | Paper & Forest Products | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canada, Cyclical, Envelopes, Free Cash Flow, Packaging, Share Buybacks, Trough Earnings, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | MCB.L | McBride plc | Consumer Staples | Household Products | Bull | London Stock Exchange | consumer staples, deleveraging, Europe, household products, margin expansion, Private-label, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | SCAB.ST | Scandic Hotels Group AB | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Bull | Nasdaq Stockholm | asset-light, Convertible Overhang, Europe, Hotels, Mid-market, Scandinavia, Travel Recovery, variable leases | Login |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | HPS.TO | Hammond Power Solutions Inc. | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | TSX | Canadian, capacity expansion, debt-free, electrical equipment, Electrification, growth, Industrial, manufacturing, Transformers, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | AMPX | P10 Inc. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | NYSE | alternative assets, asset management, AUM growth, private equity, recurring revenue, Share Buybacks, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | UNI.MI | Unidata S.p.A. | Communication Services | Alternative Carriers | Bull | Borsa Italiana | acquisition, broadband, essential services, Fiber Optic, infrastructure, Italian, telecommunications, Undersea Cable, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | EACO | EACO Corp. | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | OTC | Electrical Components, Essential Products, Fasteners, growth, Industrial distribution, margin expansion, Sales Force, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | SKYT | Skytop Lodge Corp. | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | Bull | OTC | Asset Play, cash flow, Historic Property, Hotel, Poconos, Real Estate, Resort, Tourism, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | PX | P10 Inc. | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Alternative Asset Manager, asset management, Fee-Based Business, Impact Investing, permanent capital, Private markets, recurring revenue | Login |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | UNI.MI | Unidata S.p.A. | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Alternative Carriers | Bull | Borsa Istanbul | Broadband internet, cash flow growth, data centers, European markets, fiber-optic network, infrastructure, Italy, telecommunications | Login |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | GTX | Garrett Motion Inc. | Auto Parts | Auto Parts & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | automotive, balance sheet improvement, capital structure, deleveraging, dividend yield, Post-Bankruptcy, preferred shares, Turbocharger | Login |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Pegroco Invest AB | Other | Multi-Sector Holdings | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Asset Coverage, Dividend Arrearage, high yield, Liquidity Building, preferred shares, Special Situation, Swedish Investment Company | Login |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | TIM S.A. | Other | Technology Distributors | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | 3pl, Contrarian Investment, deep value, E-commerce logistics, Electronic Components, Polish Markets, Share Buyback, Technology Distributor | Login |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | CPTP | Copper Property CTL Pass Through Trust | Real Estate Services | Retail REITs | Bull | - | Bankruptcy, Commercial Properties, high yield, JC Penney, Liquidating Trust, Real Estate, Special Situation, triple net lease | Login |
| Mar 31, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | PX | P10 Inc. | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | acquisition strategy, alternative asset management, Asset Under Management, Bull, cash flow generation, fee-based revenue, management ownership | Login |
| Mar 31, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | JOB | GEE Group | Staffing & Employment Services | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | debt-free, Healthcare Staffing, Professional Recruiting, Roll-up Strategy, Staffing Services, Technology Staffing, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2022 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | HRBR | Harbor Diversified | Airlines | Airlines | Bull | - | asset value, Binary Outcome, Catalyst-Driven, contract renewal, liquidation value, Regional Airline, Special Situation | Login |
| Dec 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | PX | P10, Inc. | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Acquisitions Strategy, alternative asset management, AUM growth, debt refinancing, Micro-cap, Predictable Cash Flow, private equity | Login |
| Dec 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | CRD.A | Crawford United Corporation | Other | Industrial Machinery | Bull | NASDAQ | Industrial Equipment, Inflation Pressure, long-term growth, Niche Manufacturing, serial acquirer, supply chain, value creation | Login |
| Dec 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | GTX | Garrett Motion Inc. | Auto Parts | Auto Parts & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Automotive Turbochargers, Balance Sheet Optimization, capital return, Cyclical Recovery, Electric Vehicle Transition, Semiconductor Shortage, share repurchase | Login |
| Dec 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | LICT | LICT Corporation | Telecom Services | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | - | capital return, essential infrastructure, FCC Spectrum Auction, Rural Telecommunications, Special Situation, strategic review, wireless services | Login |
| Dec 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | UNI.MI | Unidata S.p.A. | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Integrated Telecommunication Services | Bull | Borsa Istanbul | data centers, EBITDA growth, fiber optic infrastructure, IoT Applications, Italian Telecommunications, Network expansion, recurring revenue, strategic plan | Login |
| Dec 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | TIM S.A. | Other | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Blue Chip Clients, E-commerce Growth, electrical distribution, IPO Catalyst, operating leverage, Polish Market, Third-party Logistics, Value Undervaluation | Login |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Garrett Motion Inc. | Other | Auto Parts & Equipment | Bull | - | automotive, Bankruptcy, deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Post-Reorganization, preferred stock, Special Situation, Turbochargers | Login |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Crossroads Systems | Other | Specialized Finance | Bull | NASDAQ | 210 Capital, Alternative Lending, fee income, Fintech Partnership, PPP Loans, Special dividend, Special Situation, Texas | Login |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Tower Properties Company | Other | Real Estate Management & Development | Bull | - | cap rate, Commercial Properties, Kansas City, Multi-Family, net asset value, property management, Real Estate, Special dividend | Login |
| Mar 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | PX | P10 Holdings Inc. | Other | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | alternative asset management, Asset Manager, fee income, Fundraising, private equity, uplisting, Venture Capital | Login |
| Mar 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Intred S.p.A. | Other | Alternative Carriers | Bull | Borsa Istanbul | broadband, Fiber Optic, High Cash Margins, infrastructure, Italian Telecom, network effects, Self-Funding Growth | Login |
| Mar 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | UNI.MI | Unidata S.p.A. | Insurance - Property & Casualty | Alternative Carriers | Bull | Borsa Istanbul | Fiber Optic, infrastructure, Italian Telecom, operating leverage, Rome, Scaling Business, Self-Funding Growth | Login |
| Mar 31, 2021 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | - | Logan Clay Products | Other | Construction Materials | Bull | - | Clay Pipes, Cyclical, deep value, illiquid, Low float, net cash, ROE, Sewer Infrastructure | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | NLOP | Net Lease Office Properties | Real Estate | Office REITs | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, contrarian, debt reduction, Liquidation, Office, Real Estate, REIT, spin-off, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | FTLF | FitLife Brands | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | OTCQB | acquisition, Bankruptcy, consumer staples, e-commerce, Nutrition, Roll-up, supplements, turnaround | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | CRAWA | Crawford United Corp. | Industrials | Industrial Machinery | Bull | OTCQX | acquisition, Aerospace, capital allocation, Industrial, manufacturing, Share Buyback, Value | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alluvial Capital Management | AMRC | MRC Global Inc. | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | NYSE | activist, Distribution, energy, Industrial, Oil & Gas, Sale Candidate, Special Situation, utilities | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MDR | McDermott is an energy EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) company with a troubled past and a bright future. After several difficult years, the company has all but completed its legacy zero-profit and loss-making contracts. Sustained profitability is on the horizon. However, the company has one remaining issue: a weak balance sheet. Poor balance sheet liquidity and a negative equity position hinder McDermott from bidding on desirable contracts and suppress its valuation. Earlier this month, McDermott announced it would address this weakness via a $500 million rights offering. Concurrent with the rights offering, the company will refinance its term loan. The rights offering is tremendously beneficial for McDermott and for its shares. The additional capital substantially deleverages the company, greatly reducing the possibility of financial distress and enabling McDermott to bid on more and larger contracts. It also sets the company up well for a sale or IPO in the medium term. The rights offering is punitive for holders who cannot or will not exercise their rights. Because the rights offering is priced at a large discount, holders who do not exercise their rights will be diluted to oblivion. Obviously, Alluvial Fund will be participating in the rights offering to the fullest. To decline would be to leave substantial value on the table. Post-offering, McDermott will be substantially de-risked. At its current valuation, McDermott trades at just 3.2x 2027 EBITDA guidance. McDermott has been a strong performer for Alluvial Fund. When we first invested, I saw upside potential of 150% or more. Shares have moved upward since we invested, but I continue to see potential for shares to double in the next few years. Despite this attractive return profile, I always limited our position size out of caution over the company's elevated financial risks. This rights offering greatly reduces the company's financial risk, so I am now willing to hold McDermott at a higher weighting going into 2027. I expect McDermott shares to be volatile as things shake out post-rights offering. We will keep our eyes on the longer-term trajectory. If the company is able to achieve its revenue and earnings goals, shares currently trade at less than 4x 2028 earnings. |
| GTX | Garrett Motion is one of Alluvial Fund's longest-tenured holdings. 2026 has been a watershed year for Garrett, with investors waking up to the fact that the company's turbochargers have applications well beyond the automotive industry. Garrett is increasingly selling to data centers and utilities seeking improved energy efficiency and output. While shares have run up considerably, the valuation remains reasonable and the company continues to return the majority of free cash flow to shareholders. Garrett deserves its new, higher multiple of earnings and cash flows, but we are keeping a close eye. If shareholder exuberance lifts Garrett shares to the point of no longer offering attractive forward returns, we will not hesitate to sell. |
| MCB.L | McBride Plc., our British manufacturer of private-label soaps and detergents, had a small stumble in early June, when it warned that higher petrochemical costs from the Iran war would temporarily compress margins. Thankfully, shares recovered quickly as investors judged that the adverse conditions would be transitory. On July 1, McBride completed the acquisition of EuroTab, a smart bolt-on deal in continental Europe which will contribute to earnings per share immediately. McBride shares remain extremely cheap at around 7x forward earnings and less than 5x EBITDA. The London market has seen a wave of buyout activity as private equity snaps up UK industrials at depressed valuations. I would not be surprised if McBride were the subject of an offer. |
| GDOT | GreenDot Corp. shareholders approved the sale of its technology assets and the merger of its bank operations with CommerceOne Financial. All that remains is government approval, expected imminently. GreenDot shares have acted well, but still trade at a large discount to pro forma tangible book value. The management and board of directors of the future combined entity are smart operators. If the bank continues to trade below tangible book value after the deal is completed, I expect they will not hesitate to implement share buybacks. I see upside of 50-70% in the next few years, net of the large distribution shareholders will receive when the deal is completed. |
| TLN | Talen Energy is another long-tenured Alluvial holding. We bought Talen out of bankruptcy and have watched Talen's management put on an absolute master class. Since emergence, Talen has bought back a huge quantity of shares at extremely low prices, sold some older, out-of-market assets, and reinvested in modern generation capacity at good prices. Today, the market tends to treat Talen as a proxy for AI and data centers: on 'AI will take over the world' days, Talen shares soar; on 'AI is in a bubble' days, Talen sinks. This dynamic makes Talen unusually tradable by Alluvial Fund standards. We have had success selling calls against our core position when optimism surges, and buying calls when pessimism seems close to peaking. Meanwhile, we keep our eyes on the underlying story: merchant power production, especially nuclear, is a different business than it was a decade ago. Demand for electricity is growing again after stagnating for a decade. The United States is structurally short of generation capacity. This translates to strong free cash flow for companies like Talen that have dispatchable generation capacity. Talen expects free cash flow per share to exceed $40 in 2028, a figure that appears achievable based on planned share buybacks and the ramp-up of the company's supply agreement with Amazon. 9x 2028 free cash flow is simply too low for a company of Talen's quality and rarity. |
| GMS.L | First the Iran War was over, then it wasn't. Gulf Marine Services' shares remain below pre-war levels. With the benefit of hindsight, we could have timed Alluvial Fund's investment in this offshore support vessel owner better, but lately an interesting phenomenon has emerged. Gulf Marine Services shares no longer plunge on every bad headline from the Middle East. This leads me to believe that those panicked by the region's instability have finished selling, and only those willing to look past the current conflict remain as shareholders. Recently, the company secured a 4-year contract for its new vessel in Brazil, improving earnings visibility. I doubt GMS shares will move until the outcome of the Iran War is clearer, but I am happy to own shares and add to our position here. Shares trade at less than 4x normalized earnings and at a large discount to tangible book value. Short of a pan-regional conflagration, I think it is very hard to lose money on this company over any reasonable timeframe. |
| EACO | EACO Corp., whose subsidiary Bisco Industries distributes all manner of electrical components and fasteners, just keeps rolling. The company has put together one of the most impressive operating performances in public markets, but remains almost entirely unknown thanks to its very illiquid shares. For the quarter ended May 31, EACO's revenues rose 28% year-over-year while operating income rose 45%. Despite these jaw-dropping results, EACO shares change hands at less than 9x annualized earnings and 6x operating income. Incredible. |
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