| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
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| - | - | - |
Alpine Capital believes we are entering AI 2.0, where artificial intelligence creates global abundance but commoditizes software, threatening traditional SaaS moats. The investment bottleneck has shifted from GPUs to physical infrastructure, driving a re-industrialization revolution requiring $85 trillion over 15 years. Silver delivered 136% returns in 2025 as markets priced in material requirements, with copper expected to follow. The firm is tactically shifting toward power chain companies and industrial metals while moving neutral/bearish on software incumbents. Emerging markets surged on dollar weakness and raw material demand, though long-term sustainability remains questionable due to socialist policies. The Fed is expected to become more dovish with Powell's successor, creating equity tailwinds. Despite high valuations and expected mid-term election volatility in 2026, the firm remains extremely optimistic based on 15% S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts driven by AI productivity gains. Banking sector strength supports their view that traditional bear markets are unlikely.
The world is transitioning from a software-driven digital revolution to a physical re-industrialization revolution, where AI 2.0 creates global abundance but shifts bottlenecks from digital to physical infrastructure, creating massive investment opportunities in power generation, industrial metals, and AI factory buildout.
The firm remains extremely optimistic for 2026 despite expecting mid-term election volatility. They anticipate the S&P 500 could match 15% earnings growth at best or consolidate sideways at worst. Corporate profit margins are expected on long-term upward trajectory supported by labor productivity gains. The banking sector hitting all-time highs supports their view that traditional bear markets don't occur when banks perform well.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, commodities, Copper, emerging markets, Federal Reserve, infrastructure, Silver, technology | - | The firm believes we are entering AI 2.0, a period where artificial intelligence fosters global abundance and increases productivity. However, they see software being commoditized… |
| Oct 28 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence Spending, Capital Expenditure, Long Term Discipline, Mega Cap Dominance, Monetary Easing | - | The report highlights a supportive macro backdrop driven by the Federal Reserves pivot toward rate cuts and resilient global growth. Alpine argues AI spending is… |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | LRCX, MU, V | Artificial Intelligence, dollar weakness, Market Discipline, Policy Volatility, Semiconductor Demand | - | The letter discusses sharp market volatility triggered by U.S. tariff announcements followed by a rapid recovery as trade tensions eased and investor confidence returned. Alpine… |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Capital discipline, dollar weakness, Global Liquidity, Policy Volatility | - | The letter describes a volatile quarter shaped by U.S. trade policy uncertainty, shifting tariff rhetoric, and renewed debate around U.S. exceptionalism. Alpine maintains conviction in… |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
CopperCopper gained over 42% in 2025 and continued its move higher after bottoming during the pandemic. Copper finished up 21.43% in Q4 alone, benefitting from multiple underlying fundamental and macro drivers. The metal's strong performance contributed to Materials sector dominance. |
Copper Miners Base Metals Industrial Metals Commodity Cycle | |
Data CentersComfort Systems USA benefited from robust demand for data centers and AI-related infrastructure, with the company reporting stronger-than-expected revenue driven by this demand. |
Infrastructure Technology Construction AI Revenue | |
Emerging MarketsEM exposure increased to roughly 30% of the portfolio, the largest weight ever, driven by compressed valuations and opportunities in companies like CATL, Delta Electronics, Naver, and Tencent. The manager sees attractive risk-reward profiles in EM companies where fundamentals remain robust despite underperformance. |
China South Korea Taiwan Value Growth | |
Energy TransitionEnergy transition themes are reflected through infrastructure investments and companies positioned for the global push toward renewable energy, including exposure to energy services and LNG infrastructure where long-term dynamics look positive. |
Renewables Infrastructure Clean Energy Sustainability Climate | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
SilverSilver was the fund's largest weighting for several years and a top contributor in 2025. Physical silver shortages catapulted prices higher in Q4, reaching record levels. The managers completely sold their silver position near quarter end due to rapid price appreciation. |
Physical Silver Shortages Record Levels Precious Metals Hedge | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Artificial Intelligence |
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Capital Intensity |
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Monetary Policy |
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| 2025 Q2 |
Artificial Intelligence |
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Dollar Cycles |
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VolatilityGlobal FX volatility has declined significantly despite ongoing high geopolitical, policy, economic and market uncertainties. The disconnect between market volatility and perceived risks is visible across most asset classes. Rising volatility can have two-dimensional FX effects depending on the nature of the shock. |
FX volatility Market disconnect Risk perception Volatility shocks Currency correlation | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Artificial Intelligence |
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Dollar Cycles |
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VolatilityGlobal FX volatility has declined significantly despite ongoing high geopolitical, policy, economic and market uncertainties. The disconnect between market volatility and perceived risks is visible across most asset classes. Rising volatility can have two-dimensional FX effects depending on the nature of the shock. |
FX volatility Market disconnect Risk perception Volatility shocks Currency correlation |
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