| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Alpinum reduced market exposure in Q1 2026 as geopolitical shocks dominated markets, with Iran conflict triggering oil surge to $102 and reviving stagflation concerns. The US operation in Venezuela, Greenland tensions, and Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted global trade routes while Anthropic's autonomous AI agents accelerated technology disruption. Despite resilient US growth and European stabilization, elevated uncertainty prompted defensive positioning emphasizing capital preservation. Energy-driven inflation complicated central bank policy with Fed maintaining cautious stance near 3.5-3.75% while ECB held rates at 2.0%. Credit spreads widened materially but created selective opportunities in shorter-duration bonds and senior loans. Equity markets bifurcated with rotation from mega-cap software toward value, cyclicals, and commodities. While severe recession remains unlikely, tail risks are no longer negligible. The firm maintains flexibility to add risk assets at more attractive levels if geopolitical tensions ease and market stress intensifies, favoring active rotation over broad beta exposure.
Geopolitical shocks and AI disruption have elevated market volatility requiring defensive positioning while maintaining selective opportunism for attractive entry points.
While severe recession remains unlikely, volatility has risen meaningfully and tail risks are no longer negligible. Capital preservation remains paramount while maintaining flexibility to deploy at more attractive levels if market weakness deepens.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, credit, geopolitics, inflation, Iran, oil, Stagflation, volatility | - | Alpinum turned defensive amid Iran conflict oil shock and AI disruption, reducing market exposure while emphasizing capital preservation. Geopolitical tensions elevated volatility and tail risks beyond negligible levels. Despite resilient macro backdrop, energy-driven stagflation concerns and technology disruption created bifurcated markets. Maintaining flexibility for selective deployment if tensions ease and attractive entry points emerge. |
| Dec 19 2025 | 2025 Q4 | - | earnings, Mean reversion, mispricing, valuation, value | - | Alpinum navigates a higher nominal world with resilient but slowing growth, emphasizing capital preservation amid rising volatility. Credit investments offering 7-9% yields remain preferred over elevated equity valuations. Key focus on active management to capture alpha from increasing market dispersion driven by trade tensions and policy uncertainty. |
| Oct 2 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | China, credit, equities, inflation, rates, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Trade tensions and Trump tariffs drove Q2 volatility, but resilient US consumption and earnings supported market recovery. Global growth decelerated while inflation remained sticky, keeping central banks cautious. Despite policy uncertainty, positive bias on risky assets persists with severe recession unlikely. Favor credit investments offering 7-9% yields and non-US equities for outperformance potential. |
| Jun 29 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | China, credit, geopolitics, inflation, rates, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Alpinum maintains positive stance on risky assets despite Q2 2025 volatility from Trump tariffs and geopolitical tensions. While trade disruptions pressured margins and slowed global growth to 3%, resilient consumption and earnings supported market recovery. The firm favors active management, credit investments yielding 7-9%, and absolute return strategies over relative value in this low-growth, high-disparity environment. |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | credit, Europe, inflation, infrastructure, monetary policy, tariffs, Trade Policy | - | Global economy undergoes transformation as Trump's aggressive tariffs intensify trade tensions while Germany's massive infrastructure spending signals European fiscal shift. Structural inflation from de-globalization pressures persist amid Fed caution. European equities outperform US markets. Alpinum favors credit investments and maintains positive equity bias, emphasizing active management in volatile, low-growth environment with heightened cross-asset disparities. |
| Jan 2 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | credit, equities, inflation, rates, Stagflation, Trade Policy, Trump | - | Alpinum sees a late-cycle environment with moderate growth and resilient consumption. Trump 2.0 brings deregulation tailwinds but tariff-driven stagflation risks. Fed easing supports markets despite stretched valuations. Active management essential given sector disparities. Favour credit over equities, particularly short-term high-yield and loans yielding 7-9%. Absolute return strategy preferred over relative value in current fragile yet adaptable environment. |
| Sep 26 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Central Banks, credit, inflation, Macro, Multi-Asset, rates, risk management | - | Alpinum favors credit over equities following central bank easing cycle initiation. Despite market rebound from August volatility, elevated S&P 500 valuations at 21x forward P/E limit upside potential. Strategy emphasizes loans and short-term high-yield bonds yielding 7-9% while maintaining cautious equity positioning. Active management crucial in low-growth environment with increased market disparities. |
| Jul 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | China, credit, equities, Europe, Fed, global, inflation, Resilience | - | Alpinum sees global economic resilience supporting risky assets despite persistent inflation limiting Fed easing to two cuts in 2024. They favor credit investments, particularly short-term high-yield bonds yielding 7-9%, over equities given high valuations. The firm maintains positive bias but emphasizes selectivity and active management in a low-growth environment with increasing company divergence. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | China, credit, equities, Europe, inflation, rates | - | Alpinum maintains positive bias for risky assets despite low growth environment, emphasizing overweight credit exposure in US loans and short-term high-yield bonds yielding 7-9%. Active management approach targets rising company dispersion while staying ready to reduce equity exposure if rates resurge or economic conditions deteriorate. |
| Dec 28 2023 | 2023 Q4 | AI.PA, ASML, MC.PA, OR.PA, SAN.PA, SAP.DE, SIE.DE, SU.PA | China, credit, Europe, fixed income, inflation, rates, Recession, Valuations | - | Alpinum expects soft landing with Fed rate cuts driving Treasury yields lower while maintaining overweight credit positions over expensive equities. The firm favors loans and short-term high-yield bonds yielding 8-10% given current valuations. Neutral equity stance with preference for non-US markets. Key risks include rate resurgence and elevated US valuations. |
| Sep 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | China, credit, Europe, inflation, rates, Stagflation | - | Alpinum navigates elevated rate environment with cautious positioning favoring credit over equities. Fed reaches 22-year rate highs while US economy shows resilience despite European weakness and Chinese deflation. Credit yields of 8-9% offer superior risk-adjusted returns. Strategy maintains neutral equity exposure with overweight in loans and short-term high yield bonds. |
| Mar 30 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking Crisis, credit, fixed income, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, Stagflation | - | Alpinum sees challenging conditions with stubborn inflation and widening gaps between economic reality and market expectations. Global monetary tightening nears peak levels around 5%, making fixed income attractive again. They maintain underweight equities with non-US preference while favoring short-term high yield and selective investment grade bonds, adopting absolute return approach focused on capital preservation amid expected continued volatility. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilIran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure triggered oil shock with Brent surging 68% to $102. Supply disruption revived stagflation concerns globally. Oil prices expected to moderate in H2 2026 below $80 if tensions ease. |
Brent Iran Hormuz Supply Shock |
GeopoliticsEscalating conflicts dominated the quarter including US-Venezuela operation, Greenland tensions, and Iran war. Geopolitical shocks disrupted trade routes and elevated market volatility with tail risks no longer negligible. |
Iran Venezuela Greenland Conflict Trade | |
AIAnthropic's autonomous agents accelerated AI-led disruption, creating dispersion between structural beneficiaries and companies facing margin pressure. Markets rotated away from mega-cap software toward value and cyclicals. |
Anthropic Agents Disruption Software Automation | |
InflationEnergy-driven inflation spike complicated central bank policy with US CPI at 2.4% and euro area returning to 1.9%. Fed looking through short-term oil bump while maintaining cautious stance on rates. |
CPI Energy Fed ECB Rates | |
CreditCredit spreads widened materially on geopolitical stress but created attractive entry points. Default rates may rise but broad credit event unlikely. Favoring shorter-duration investment grade and high yield bonds. |
Spreads Defaults Investment Grade High Yield Duration | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI-linked equities helped stabilize sentiment in China and Asia, with strong AI-related demand supporting Taiwan and Korea markets. AI exuberance is noted as part of the backdrop of policy noise and rich valuations that characterized 2025. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Taiwan Korea |
InflationA higher nominal world has emerged driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism and competitive currency devaluations, leading to higher equilibrium for inflation and interest rates. Tariff-related cost shocks are compressing margins rather than reigniting broad inflation upswing. |
Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Tariffs Central Banks | |
Trade PolicyThe administration oscillated between aggressive tariff announcements and tactical truces, using tariff relief to offset domestic inflation and advance geopolitical objectives. Tariff frictions and trade distortions are creating headwinds for global activity and European recovery. |
Tariffs Protectionism Geopolitics Trade Wars | |
Credit StressNear-term defaults may tick higher but a major default wave is not in the cards. Credit spreads are tight to fairly priced with modest room to widen. Corporate default rates will average between 2-3% with no spike expected. |
Corporate Bonds Default Rates Credit Spreads High Yield | |
GoldA weaker dollar supported gold and non-US risk assets in 2025. Gold benefits when real and/or nominal interest rates fall, currently providing a tailwind. Aggressive Trump policies also support a gold rally. |
Precious Metals Dollar Safe Haven Monetary Policy | |
ChinaChina continued to wrestle with weak domestic demand, property stress and consumer-price deflation. The economy remained on track for 5% growth but sequential momentum cooled. Mainland Chinese equities lagged despite attractive valuations due to concerns over property and regulatory unpredictability. |
Emerging Markets Property Deflation Growth | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration's sweeping 25% tariffs on Chinese imports, steel and vehicles from the EU disrupted global trade flows and weighed heavily on corporate profit margins. Trade policy proved the dominant catalyst affecting macro conditions, central bank decisions, and equity and bond market trajectories. |
Tariffs China Trade tensions Global trade Policy uncertainty |
InflationInflation remained moderate but sticky services and wage pressures kept central banks cautious. Core PCE reaccelerated to over 3% in first quarter, complicating the Fed's policy stance. A structural long-term higher nominal world with higher inflation and moderate real growth is emerging. |
Core PCE Services inflation Wage pressures Central banks Nominal growth | |
RatesThe Fed paused rate adjustments amid growth uncertainty while ECB pursued dovish policy with markets pricing additional rate reductions. We have entered a new interest rate regime with duration acting as a valuable portfolio diversifier again. |
Fed funds ECB Rate cuts Duration Yield curve | |
CreditCredit spreads are tight to fairly priced with corporate default rates moderate at around 3%. We favor loans, short-term high-yield bonds offering 7-9% yields, and selective structured credit exposure including CLOs and non-agency RMBS. |
Credit spreads High yield Loans CLOs Default rates | |
ChinaChina's economy slowed from strong Q1 pace as cautious policy, subdued private credit demand, and weakening industrial activity reflected persistent domestic fragilities and intensifying external headwinds from US tariffs. |
GDP growth Credit demand Manufacturing PMI Tariff impact Policy stance | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration's sweeping 25% tariffs on Chinese imports, steel and vehicles from the EU disrupted global trade flows and weighed heavily on corporate profit margins. Trade policy proved the dominant catalyst affecting macro conditions, central bank decisions, and equity and bond market trajectories. Trade negotiations remained volatile, with US-EU tariff talks oscillating between escalation and zero-for-zero proposals. |
Tariffs China Trade War Protectionism Global Trade |
InflationInflation remained moderate but sticky services and wage pressures kept central banks cautious. Core PCE reaccelerated to over 3% in first quarter, complicating the Fed's policy stance. Military conflict leads to more structural inflation pressure from less globalization, less efficient supply chains, and more protectionism. |
Core PCE Services Wages Central Banks Structural | |
RatesThe Fed paused rate adjustments amid growth uncertainty while ECB and BoJ pursued diverging policy adjustments. Markets priced in additional ECB rate reductions to deposit rates of 2.0%. We have entered a new interest rate regime with duration as an asset class and diversifier back on track. |
Fed ECB Duration Rate Cuts Monetary Policy | |
VolatilityQ2 2025 saw heightened volatility as renewed US trade tensions and geopolitical risks dominated market dynamics. April saw sharp equity declines with S&P 500 dropping nearly 10% before rebounding mid-quarter. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty emerged as primary market drivers. |
Market Volatility Geopolitical Risk Policy Uncertainty Risk Aversion Market Swings | |
ChinaChina's economy slowed from its strong Q1 pace, with cautious policy, subdued private credit demand, and weakening industrial activity reflecting persistent domestic fragilities and intensifying external headwinds. Beijing prioritized macroeconomic stability over stimulus-led acceleration, refraining from aggressive rate cuts especially as US-China tensions escalated. |
GDP Growth Credit Demand Industrial Activity Policy Stance US Tensions | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration implemented significant tariff hikes including 25% on Canadian steel and aluminum, 25% on European cars, and 30% on Chinese electronics. These aggressive tariff policies intensified trade tensions and contributed to market volatility and recession concerns. |
Tariffs Trade War Protectionism Import Duties Retaliation |
Infrastructure SpendingGermany unveiled a landmark multi-hundred billion investment program aimed at revitalizing its domestic economy, signaling a shift away from austerity. This represents a transformative fiscal policy change with broader inflationary and growth implications across the eurozone. |
Fiscal Stimulus Defense Investment Program Austerity Growth Boost | |
InflationStructural inflation driven by de-globalization, tariffs and energy transition intersects with geopolitical tensions. US inflation remained persistent with CPI at 2.8% in February, while the Fed adopted a cautious stance signaling higher for longer monetary policy. |
CPI Monetary Policy Price Pressures De-globalization Energy Transition | |
Credit StressCorporate default rates are expected to average around 3% with credit spreads tight to fairly priced. The letter favors loans, short-term high-yield bonds offering 7-9% yields, and structured credit markets including CLOs and non-agency RMBS. |
Default Rates Credit Spreads High Yield CLOs Structured Credit | |
| 2024 Q4 |
InflationInflation trends were nuanced with core PCE holding steady at 2.2% year-over-year, reinforcing the broader disinflationary trend. However, service-sector inflation persisted, complicating the Federal Reserve's outlook. Structural pressures including de-globalization and energy transition present ongoing challenges. |
Disinflation Service Sector Fed Policy Structural Pressures |
RatesCentral banks played a pivotal role with Federal Reserve rate cuts and European Central Bank easing measures. The Fed cut rates twice in Q4, reducing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%. Duration as an asset class and diversifier is back on track in this new interest rate regime. |
Fed Cuts ECB Easing Duration Rate Regime | |
Trade PolicyDonald Trump's presidential victory prompted market shifts with tariff policies amplifying global stagflation risks, particularly in trade-dependent regions. Heightened tariff policies escalated stagflation risks globally, particularly for trade-reliant regions like China and Europe. |
Tariffs Stagflation Trade War Protectionism | |
AIReal GDP growth was driven by robust consumer spending and AI investments. AI investments were highlighted as a key driver of US economic resilience alongside consumer spending. |
Investment Growth Driver Technology | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesCentral banks including Fed, ECB, SNB, BoC, BoE and PBoC cut rates during Q3. Fed initiated easing cycle with 50 bps reduction in September, with markets pricing up to eight cuts through 2025. Duration acts as valuable portfolio diversifier with positive bias on rate exposure. |
Fed ECB Duration Monetary Policy Easing |
CreditCredit spreads are fairly priced despite expected increase in corporate default rates towards 3-4%. Favor loans, short-term high-yield bonds, senior exposure in structured credit. Commercial banks continue tightening credit conditions despite central bank easing. |
High Yield Loans CLO Default Rates Spreads | |
InflationInflation moderated in US and Europe during Q3, with headline rate easing to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in July in Eurozone. Services inflation remains elevated at 4.2%. Inflation expected to stay above Fed's 2% target for remainder of year. |
Services Core Fed Target Eurozone Moderation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
ResilienceThe global economy is demonstrating resilience, especially for the US, China and emerging markets. The risk of a global recession has diminished, with emerging markets outperforming advanced economies. Economic indicators show sustained growth despite higher capital costs and geopolitical tensions. |
Economic Growth Recovery Stability Fundamentals |
InflationPersistently high inflation led to diminished expectations for a significant Fed easing cycle, with markets now anticipating one to two rate cuts in 2024. Inflation remains a concern, prompting central banks to pursue a vigilant policy. Service prices remain significantly elevated, exerting inflationary pressure. |
Central Banks Fed ECB Monetary Policy Rates | |
CreditCredit spreads are fairly priced and remain selectively attractive, despite a higher floor of corporate default rates. The manager favors credit investments, particularly focusing on loans and non-cyclical short-term high-yield bonds offering yields of 7-9%. Selective credit exposure remains constructive. |
High Yield Loans Spreads Default Rates Fixed Income | |
Risk AppetiteGiven the absence of an imminent severe recession, the manager maintains a positive bias on risky assets. However, they are prepared to reduce equity exposure if interest rates rise again or economic growth slows. High valuations and potential volatility warrant caution and a balanced approach. |
Equities Positioning Valuations Volatility Asset Allocation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
InflationInflation hovering around 3% remains a focus, down from 2022 peak of 9%. Concerns persist about inflation exceeding Fed's 2% target. Structural inflation persists post-COVID with cyclical inflation resurging alongside old disinflationary forces. |
Inflation Fed Monetary Policy Rates PCE |
RatesFederal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates and uncertainties surrounding inflation tempered sentiment. Peak rates in Fed funds are reached, however inflation is not yet fully tamed. Higher for longer narrative dominates. |
Interest Rates Fed ECB Monetary Policy Duration | |
CreditOverall overweight position in credit investments, with emphasis on US loans and non-cyclical short-term high-yield bonds offering yields of 7-9%. Credit spreads look fairly priced and remain selectively attractive despite increase of corporate default rates towards 3-4%. |
Credit High Yield Loans Spreads Default Rates | |
| 2023 Q4 |
InflationMarket sentiment pivoted favorably as perception of inflation underwent positive shift. Transient inflationary pressures are alleviating, contributing to market stability and normalizing inflation rates to historically typical levels. |
CPI Deflation Fed Policy ECB Policy Price Pressures |
RatesAnticipated Fed rate cuts of 150 basis points in 2024 led to decline in US Treasury yields to 3.9%. ECB likely finished hiking cycle with probability of maintaining restrictive stance. |
Fed Cuts Treasury Yields Policy Rates Duration Yield Curve | |
CreditCredit spreads fairly valued with selective opportunities remaining. Emphasis on loans and non-cyclical short-term high-yield bonds offering yields in 8-10% range. Overweight position maintained in credit investments. |
High Yield Loans CLOs Credit Spreads Default Rates | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationCentral banks maintain unwavering commitment to curbing inflation despite economic deceleration concerns. Inflation expectations for the coming year reached 3.5%, not witnessed in over two years. Sticky core inflation leads to slow adjustment despite gradual decrease. |
Central Banks Monetary Policy Price Pressures Expectations Core |
RatesFederal Reserve raised key interest rate range by 25 basis points to 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.50%. ECB implemented 10th consecutive rate hike to 4.0%. Real rates have risen significantly, surpassing 2%, driven by decreasing inflation expectations. |
Federal Reserve ECB Rate Hikes Real Rates Terminal Rate | |
ChinaChina's economy faces deflationary pressures with negative CPI at -0.3% year-on-year and weak retail sales growth. Real estate sector experienced 8.5% drop in investment. People's Bank of China responded with two interest rate cuts to combat deflation. |
Deflation Real Estate Stimulus Renminbi Growth | |
| 2023 Q1 |
InflationInflation remains stubbornly high across regions with US core inflation at 5.5%, eurozone headline at 8.5%, and the path to 2% targets expected to be long and bumpy. Central banks continue tightening with the Fed cautioning disinflation may take longer than anticipated. |
Central Banks Monetary Policy Interest Rates Disinflation Price Stability |
RatesGlobal monetary policy tightening cycle approaches its peak with US short-term rates around 5%. The narrative has shifted to higher for longer but with lower peak levels than previously expected. Duration exposure is becoming investable again as an asset class. |
Federal Reserve ECB Duration Yield Curve Terminal Rate | |
Credit StressBanking stress emerged with Silicon Valley Bank collapse and Credit Suisse liquidity crisis. This has led to expectations of tighter borrowing costs and regulatory actions, while credit spreads have repriced to more attractive levels. |
Banking Crisis Liquidity Credit Spreads Default Rates Financial Stability |
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