| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ameliora Wealth Management delivered strong performance in 2025, driven primarily by precious metals allocation as gold gained 64% and silver surged 145%. Global equity markets reached all-time highs with gains exceeding 20%, though concerns about an AI bubble led to profit-taking in technology stocks. The firm's equity themes including global energy infrastructure, European financials, and U.S. gold miners performed excellently, while defense sector allocation requires more time. Key return drivers included geopolitical tensions boosting precious metals, corporate profit strength across sectors, and currency movements with the dollar weakening 9.4%. Looking ahead, the firm anticipates a positive year driven by expected 14-15% profit growth in U.S. and Europe alongside falling interest rates. However, risks include AI bubble concerns with $400 billion in planned tech capex, substantial U.S. debt burden, and geopolitical uncertainties including potential China-Taiwan conflict. Portfolio positioning remains broadly neutral on equities while maintaining precious metals overweight and reducing longer-dated bond exposure. The firm will monitor technology sector dynamics closely for profit-taking opportunities after the three-year rally.
Ameliora Wealth Management maintains a broadly neutral equity stance while overweighting precious metals, positioning for continued corporate profit growth and falling interest rates while managing risks from AI bubble concerns and geopolitical uncertainties.
Financial markets are primarily driven by corporate profits and interest rates, so we anticipate a positive year ahead. The firm expects another interesting year with AI revolution impact on businesses, political uncertainties, and geopolitical conflicts requiring close monitoring to avoid major potholes.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22 2026 | 2025 Q4 | EUFN, GDX, GRID, SHLD | AI, commodities, Energy Transition, Geopolitical, Global Markets, Precious Metals, technology | - | Precious metals were clear winners in 2025, with gold advancing 64% driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty, and rising indebtedness. Central banks have been buying gold… |
| Oct 3 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, defense, Europe, gold, inflation | - | The letter highlights a late-cycle macro environment marked by resilient U.S. growth, moderating inflation, and a dovish pivot from central banks. Elevated geopolitical risk and… |
| Jul 9 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | currencies, Defensive, diversification, gold, volatility | - | The letter discusses heightened volatility, weakening US dollar dynamics, and rising geopolitical risks. Management favors diversification away from US assets toward Europe, gold, and selective… |
| May 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
SilverSilver surged 220% since April 2024, generating powerful sell signal for precious metals. Performance mirrors 1979 parabolic blow-off that marked end of gold bull market. Retail demand peaked with reports of long lines at dealers globally before recent 40% decline from highs. |
Precious Parabolic Retail Blow-off | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines | |
EuropeThe firm is expanding European relationships and published research on European shareholder activism. They view Europe as an attractive alternative to expensive American markets and are building manager relationships in the region. |
Activism Shareholder Valuation Diversification Research | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Defensive |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| EUFN | Our equity themes GRID (global energy infrastructure), EUFN (European financials), and GDX (U.S. gold miners) performed excellently |
| GDX | The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose 12.3% during the quarter, while the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) advanced nearly 17%. Over the full year, gold and silver equities were clear market leaders, surging roughly 140% and 166%, respectively. |
| GRID | Our equity themes GRID (global energy infrastructure), EUFN (European financials), and GDX (U.S. gold miners) performed excellently |
| SHLD | our allocation to the global defense sector (SHLD) will take more time to pay off |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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