| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16.72% | -4.18% | -4.18% |
Christopher Smith's Antero Peak Strategy returned -4.18% net in Q1 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's -4.33% return by 16 basis points. The portfolio navigated complex market dynamics dominated by AI-driven uncertainty in software valuations and geopolitical instability from the Iran war. Smith emphasizes speed and adaptability over rigid planning, avoiding software sector drawdowns by redirecting capital toward higher-conviction opportunities. Top contributors included newer industrial positions like Caterpillar, Applied Materials, and Analog Devices, while AI semiconductors NVIDIA and Broadcom detracted. The manager has materially expanded exposure to US industrial capacity rebuild, viewing it as a multi-decade structural opportunity supported by $50+ billion in CHIPS Act incentives and $1 trillion in infrastructure spending. Key risks include AI's impact on software economics and geopolitical tail risks. Smith maintains discipline in concentrating capital where economics are both attractive and knowable while avoiding areas dominated by unforecastable variables.
Speed and adaptability are competitive advantages in today's volatile environment where AI uncertainty clouds the long term and geopolitical instability throws the near term into chaos, requiring capital allocation toward opportunities with analytical differentiation rather than clinging to prior assumptions.
This is not an environment that rewards stubbornness. As assumptions become more fragile and outcomes more path dependent, the cost of being wrong has the potential to increase significantly. The manager aims to concentrate capital where the economics are both attractive and knowable while avoiding areas where outcomes are dominated by variables that cannot yet be reliably forecasted.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, geopolitics, industrials, Manufacturing, Onshoring, semiconductors, technology | - | Smith's Antero Peak outperformed in Q1 by avoiding AI-pressured software and expanding industrial exposure. The manager emphasizes speed over stubbornness, capitalizing on US manufacturing rebuild supported by massive policy incentives. Portfolio benefited from newer positions in Caterpillar and semiconductor equipment while AI chips detracted. Focuses on knowable opportunities amid AI uncertainty and geopolitical volatility. |
| Jan 27 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, ADI, AXON, CAT, COF, GE, GS, HWM, ISRG, JPM, LLY, NDAQ, NVDA, ROK, RYCEY, SHOP, SMNEY, TSM, WELL, WFC | aerospace, AI, Capital markets, Data centers, energy, productivity, ROIC, semiconductors |
CAT ADI |
Artisan Focus Fund outperformed in 2025 with 19.89% returns driven by strong earnings revisions and aerospace normalization theme. The team sees the richest opportunity set since inception ahead, targeting AI productivity gains, data monetization, and energy transition themes. Portfolio positioned for 500bps ROIC expansion and 50% excess earnings growth through 2028. |
| Oct 20 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AXON, CEG, COF, DASH, EVR, GE, GS, HWM, ISRG, JPM, MSFT, NDAQ, NFLX, NVDA, RHM.DE, RYCEY, SIEGY, TSM, VST, WELL | aerospace, AI, energy, financials, growth, large cap, semiconductors, technology |
MSFT NVDA GE RR TSM MSFT NVDA GE RR TSM |
Strong fundamental performance despite Q3 pause in AI power infrastructure holdings after exceptional gains. Portfolio earnings estimates revised materially higher across all top positions. Positioned for superior value creation through expanding ROIC and 16% sustainable EPS growth versus 8% for S&P 500, with exposure to financial deregulation, AI infrastructure, aerospace recovery, and digital transformation themes. |
| Aug 27 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, APO, AVGO, AXON, CCI, EQIX, GE, GEV, GOOGL, MA, META, MSFT, NFLX, NOW, NVDA, RYCEY, SMNEY, TSM, VST | AI, Data centers, energy, growth, infrastructure, semiconductors, technology | - | Antero Peak delivered exceptional Q2 performance with 19.97% net returns and 902 basis points of alpha versus S&P 500, driven by strong fundamental execution across technology holdings. The manager maintains high conviction in AI infrastructure investments, expecting continued robust spending through 2030 as agentic AI drives exponential compute demand and data center capacity expansion. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ADI, APO, AXON, CCI, CEG, CME, ENEN.DE, EQIX, GE, HWM, ISRG, KKR, KMI, LIN, LLY, MCO, MSFT, MSI, NDAQ, NVDA, PRMB, RR.L, SAF.PA, SPGI, TDG, TSM, VST, WMB | aerospace, AI, alpha, earnings, energy, growth, large cap, technology | - | Antero Peak delivered 2.4% alpha in Q1 2025 through aerospace normalization and energy transition themes. Strong earnings revisions from GE and Rolls-Royce drove performance despite market reversals. Risk management helped navigate volatility while maintaining lower tariff exposure than benchmarks. Focus on earnings differentiation and ROIC expansion positions portfolio for continued outperformance. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, APO, CEG, ENR.DE, EQIX, GE, GEV, ISRG, KKR, KMI, LLY, META, NDAQ, PGR, SPOT, TDG, TSLA, TSM, WMB | aerospace, AI, energy, infrastructure, large cap, Natural Gas, private markets, technology | - | Antero Peak delivered 31.39% returns in 2024 versus 25.02% for the S&P 500, underweight the Magnificent Seven. The strategy targets inflection points across aerospace, energy infrastructure, capital markets, and AI-driven transformation. With earnings growth accelerating to 12% in 2025 and the portfolio positioned for 43% higher profitability than the index, the manager expects substantial relative value creation ahead. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, CEG, CP, DHR, ENR.DE, EQIX, GE, ISRG, LIN, LLY, MCO, META, MSFT, MSI, MTD, NDAQ, SAF.PA, SPGI, SPOT, TDG | aerospace, AI, energy, growth, industrials, nuclear, technology | - | Antero Peak outperformed in Q3 with strong execution across de-globalization and aerospace themes, highlighted by Constellation Energy's transformational nuclear contract with Microsoft. Portfolio earnings revised 2% higher while benchmark declined, positioning for continued outperformance as macro impact moderates and fundamentals drive performance in an expanding thematic opportunity set. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, AMT, AMZN, AVGO, CP, ETN, GE, GEV, GS, HUBS, ISRG, LLY, MSFT, MSI, NVDA, SAF.PA, SPOT, TDG, TSM, V | aerospace, AI, fundamentals, growth, healthcare, large cap, semiconductors, technology | - | Antero Peak delivered strong first-half performance despite narrow markets by focusing on fundamental inflection points across AI, aerospace, and medical devices. The team's bottom-up approach targets companies with rising ROIC and sustained estimate revisions. With the revisions cycle bottoming and fundamentals expected to drive performance as macro impacts moderate, the portfolio is positioned for continued outperformance. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, ALL, AMZN, CNM, CP, CRH, DKNG, GE, GOOGL, META, MRVL, MSFT, NVDA, PG, PGR, SAF.PA, SPOT, TDG, TSLA, TSM | aerospace, earnings, growth, insurance, Manufacturing, revisions, semiconductors, technology | - | Antero Peak delivered 15.6% Q1 returns versus 10.6% S&P 500 through disciplined stock selection focused on companies accelerating, beating estimates, and outgrowing. Strong performance across aerospace, insurance, and technology themes. Portfolio positioned for continued estimate revisions with normalized market again rewarding fundamentals after unusual 2023 headwinds. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI continues to pressure the perceived long-term economics and durability of large parts of the market's ecosystem, particularly in software. The emergence of AI has obscured what software businesses will look like in 5-10 years, creating valuation uncertainty. AI infrastructure requires significantly more capital expenditure per dollar of revenue than legacy cloud, mechanically lowering near-term ROIC despite similar operating profitability. |
Software Valuation Infrastructure Cloud |
OnshoringThe US is entering a new phase of industrial expansion representing the early stages of a multi-decade rebuild of domestic productive capacity. US manufacturing investment has lagged long-term trends by approximately $270 billion annually over the past two decades. Policy support includes over $50 billion in CHIPS Act incentives and roughly $1 trillion in infrastructure spending. |
Manufacturing Infrastructure Policy Capacity | |
SemiconductorsAI-related semiconductors including NVIDIA and Broadcom were notable detractors in Q1. The portfolio includes significant exposure to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and analog semiconductors are benefiting from rising industrial and electrification trends. Semiconductor equipment companies like Applied Materials were among top contributors. |
Equipment Analog Memory Taiwan | |
Industrial PolicyPolicy has been increasingly supportive with more than $50 billion in CHIPS Act incentives, roughly $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, and production-linked tax credits directly subsidizing domestic investment. Tariffs and enforcement have increased the effective cost of offshore production by approximately 10-25% in key categories. |
CHIPS Infrastructure Tariffs Subsidies | |
DefenseDefense spending has become increasingly oriented toward production capacity and supply chain resilience. Geopolitical instability, most notably the war in Iran, has reintroduced tail risks that affect energy markets, global risk appetite, inflation and policy responses in nonlinear ways. |
Spending Geopolitical Iran Resilience | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Behavioral FinanceManager discusses behavioral biases in investing, comparing rational 'Morning Investor' mode to impulsive 'Nighttime Investor' decisions. Emphasizes the importance of overcoming psychological biases like avoiding action that could cause regret, and building habits to make better investment decisions. |
Behavioral Biases Psychology Decision Making |
ValueMature (Value) businesses led performance in Q4 and were the strongest contributors for the full year, reflecting durable execution in companies that continued to generate healthy free cash flow and return capital. |
Value Investing Free Cash Flow Capital Return | |
GrowthEmerging (Growth) businesses reversed some substantial gains made earlier in 2025 and were weak in Q4. Despite the weak quarter, they delivered a strong year overall and generated significant alpha relative to the benchmark. |
Growth Investing Alpha Generation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI infrastructure buildout driving massive capital deployment across data centers, power generation, and semiconductor supply chains. Current data center power draw of 17 GW projected to reach 50 GW by 2028, equivalent to California's entire power grid. Oracle's backlog up $400B entirely from GPU demand, while hyperscale data centers require 100-200 MW each. |
Data Centers GPUs Power Infrastructure Semiconductors |
Capital MarketsDeregulation agenda creating significant opportunities across investment banking and capital markets. M&A volumes could rise 135% from trough to peak over 4-5 years, with $2.7T in PE dry powder ready to deploy. Investment banking volumes currently 20-50% below historical GDP averages, suggesting substantial upside potential. |
Investment Banks M&A Deregulation Private Equity IPO | |
AerospaceAerospace sector cyclically inflecting ahead of long duration upcycle supported by secular growth of global middle class. Companies positioned for normalization after extended downturn, with structural demand drivers intact for multi-year recovery cycle. |
Commercial Aviation Defense Cyclical Recovery Global Growth | |
Energy TransitionPower infrastructure strain from AI data centers creating investment opportunities in energy generation and grid infrastructure. Equipment costs for gas turbines surged to $2,000-2,500/kW versus $1,000/kW historically, with 5-7 year lead times creating supply constraints. |
Power Generation Grid Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor demand driven by AI infrastructure buildout, with NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC central to the ecosystem. Broadcom CEO compensation tied to $120B AI revenue target by 2030, which could be reached 2 years early, highlighting the magnitude of the opportunity. |
AI Chips Foundries GPU Memory Packaging | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIThe manager provides extensive analysis of the AI infrastructure landscape, expecting robust investment through 2030 to support generative AI growth and agentic AI. Training clusters are getting bigger with mega-scale infrastructure projects having long runways, while agentic AI is driving material spending in inferencing infrastructure. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Training Inference Agentic |
Data CentersPlanned data center capacity expansions in the US have increased 150% over the past year with almost 40GWs of expansion currently in planning and development phase. Multiple 1GW deployments are scheduled to come online in the next few years, representing huge amounts of capacity still to be built. |
Data Centers Capacity Power Infrastructure Deployment | |
SemiconductorsNVIDIA's computing architecture is helping enable the scale up of agentic AI by reducing inferencing costs per token. The B200 and B300 introduce higher density high-bandwidth memory to remove bottlenecks for large context windows, with the GB300 being almost 700X more efficient at inferencing than Ampere chips. |
NVIDIA Blackwell Inference Efficiency Architecture | |
EnergyThe Stargate development alone is projected to potentially reach $500 billion of capital deployed and require 10GWs of power. Large-scale training clusters require massive power consumption, with the initial $100 billion phase requiring 1.2GWs of power, representing 20% of the entire power consumption of the NOVA area. |
Power Energy Infrastructure Consumption Grid | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AerospaceAerospace normalization theme was a strong contributor in Q1 with General Electric continuing clean execution as a pure play aerospace engine maker and Rolls-Royce seeing positive upward revisions. The team sees aerospace cyclically inflecting ahead of a long duration upcycle supported by secular growth of the global middle class. |
Aerospace Defense Aviation Engines Normalization |
AIMachine learning, AI, and cloud are causing the economic value of data to structurally accelerate through new products and applications. The team views this as an expanding opportunity for digital transformation representing a paradigm shift. |
AI Machine Learning Cloud Data Digital Transformation | |
Energy TransitionRedirection of capital on post pandemic priorities for security of energy and reliability of supply chains represents an expanding opportunity. The team highlights nuclear and gas generation as important solutions to meet inflecting power demand. |
Energy Transition Nuclear Gas Generation Power Demand Energy Security | |
Data CentersNetwork infrastructure industries are exposed to companies handling immense amounts of digital information. The team sees this as part of the broader digital transformation theme with companies enabling transformation through software, services, and AI. |
Data Centers Network Infrastructure Digital Information Cloud Infrastructure Connectivity | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIMachine learning, AI, and cloud are causing the economic value of data to structurally accelerate through new products and applications. AI has allowed for enhanced user experiences which leads to customer retention, higher incremental margins, and emerging moats. Digital transformation is a paradigm shift with major inflection demand for companies that enable transformation through software, services, and AI. |
Machine Learning Cloud Digital Transformation Software Data |
Energy TransitionDomestic power demand is anticipated to grow more than 20% over the next 10 years after not growing for two decades. Natural gas will play a key role as renewables remain just 11% of global power supply. Gas generation capacity expansion, combined with infrastructure to transport, process, and deliver usable cheap gas could represent a decade long investment opportunity. |
Natural Gas Power Demand Infrastructure Grid Renewables | |
Capital MarketsPrivate Equity, Private Credit, Real Estate, and Infrastructure are all trillion-plus markets expected to see double-digit CAGRs over the next 5-10 years. This secular growth is colliding with a cyclical inflection point as cyclically weak asset monetizations have led to lower fundraising and fee revenue growth, which inflected in late 2024. |
Private Equity Private Credit Asset Management Fundraising Monetization | |
AerospaceAerospace is cyclically inflecting ahead of a long duration upcycle supported by secular growth of the global middle class. The sector represents a contracting opportunity with normalization expected. |
Commercial Aviation Global Middle Class Cyclical Recovery Aerospace Components | |
OnshoringRedirection of capital on post pandemic priorities for security of energy and reliability of supply chains. Supply chains are deglobalizing, but competition remains with winners increasingly taking all. The strategy aims to find large areas of inflection fueled by secular tailwinds. |
Supply Chain Deglobalization Security Infrastructure Secular Tailwinds | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIAI is driving structural acceleration in data monetization and enterprise transformation. Machine learning, AI, and cloud are causing the economic value of data to structurally accelerate through new products and applications. Digital transformation represents a paradigm shift with major inflection demand for companies enabling transformation through software, services, and AI. |
Machine Learning Cloud Enterprise Software Data Analytics Digital Transformation |
NuclearNuclear power is experiencing transformational growth driven by hyperscale demand for clean energy. Microsoft and Constellation's Three Mile Island restart contract demonstrates depth and scale of demand, with the project showing 35% ROIC. Nuclear assets are transforming from volatile commodity exposure to higher multiple infrastructure assets. |
Clean Energy Infrastructure Power Generation Hyperscale Energy Security | |
AerospaceAerospace is cyclically inflecting ahead of a long duration upcycle supported by secular growth of the global middle class. The sector represents a contracting opportunity with aerospace normalization theme continuing to drive strong performance. |
Commercial Aviation Defense Global Growth Cyclical Recovery Middle Class | |
OnshoringDe-globalization theme involves redirection of capital on post-pandemic priorities for security of energy and reliability of supply chains. This represents a structural shift in how companies approach manufacturing and sourcing strategies. |
Supply Chain Manufacturing Energy Security Reshoring National Security | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIGenerative AI investment universe spans multiple phases from compute and infrastructure to applications. The team sees AI as driving transformation across semiconductors, data centers, and enterprise software. AI proliferation is creating opportunities in robotic surgery with DaVinci 5's 10,000x improvement in computing power. |
Semiconductors Data Centers Enterprise Software Computing Applications |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor exposure driven by bottom-up work across AI compute, networking, and storage phases. Focus on companies enabling AI transformation through chips, components, and semiconductor capital equipment. NVIDIA, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML among key holdings. |
AI Compute Memory Equipment Foundries Components | |
AerospaceAerospace is cyclically inflecting ahead of a long duration upcycle supported by secular growth of the global middle class. The team sees this as a contracting opportunity with companies like General Electric, Safran, and TransDigm positioned for the cycle. |
Defense Commercial Aviation Components Services Cyclical Recovery | |
Medical DevicesRobotic surgery remains highly underpenetrated at just 5% of surgical procedures. Improved capabilities of new systems are set to accelerate adoption with share gains expected to accelerate from 150-200bps annually to 300bps over the next two years. ISRG has a 25-year competitive lead. |
Surgical Robotics Innovation Market Penetration Healthcare Technology Competitive Moats | |
CloudData monetization through machine learning, AI, and cloud is causing the economic value of data to structurally accelerate through new products and applications. Infrastructure must be built to run and host AI workloads across hyperscalers and data center buildouts. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Hyperscalers Data Monetization Enterprise Software | |
Energy TransitionRedirection of capital on post pandemic priorities for security of energy and reliability of supply chains. Companies like GE Vernova and Eaton are positioned to benefit from this de-globalization trend and infrastructure modernization. |
Infrastructure Supply Chain Security Modernization Capital Allocation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AerospaceSecular growth amplified by cyclical inflection with optimal long duration setup. Global air travel has doubled every fifteen years since 1970, driven by rising middle class globally. Production rates need large ramps but industry will remain undersupplied. |
Aircraft Production Travel Cyclical Secular |
Auto InsuranceHistorical period of high inflation leading to structurally higher earnings power. Pricing growth reached 50-year highs as repair costs skyrocketed due to inflation and labor shortages, sparking the hardest market in modern history. |
Pricing Inflation Margins Hard Market Earnings | |
OnshoringDe-globalization theme continues to gain steam providing expanding investment opportunity set. If US industrial output returns to pre-1990s globalization levels, manufacturing capex could more than double over next 20 years. |
Manufacturing Capex Mexico Industrial Supply Chain | |
AIData monetization expanding as machine learning, AI, and cloud cause economic value of data to structurally accelerate through new products and applications. Digital transformation creating major inflection in demand for enabling companies. |
Data Machine Learning Cloud Transformation Enterprise | |
SemiconductorsDigital transformation paradigm shift with major inflection in demand for companies enabling transformation through software, services, and AI. Includes exposure to foundries, chip designers, and equipment manufacturers. |
Digital Foundries Equipment Software Services |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | Industrials | Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cycle, data centers, Deglobalization, infrastructure, machinery | Login |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | ADI | Analog Devices Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Analog, Automation, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity utilization, EPS growth, Foundry, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | RR | Rolls-Royce Holdings plc | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | — | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Capacity utilization, EPS growth, Foundry, Pricing power, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | MSFT | Microsoft Corp. | Information Technology | System Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud, Digital transformation, Enterprise transformation, recurring revenue, ROIC | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, capital intensity, data centers, earnings growth, GPUs, hyperscale, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | MSFT | Microsoft Corp. | Information Technology | System Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud, Digital transformation, Enterprise transformation, recurring revenue, ROIC | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, capital intensity, data centers, earnings growth, GPUs, hyperscale, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | GE | General Electric Co. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, aftermarket, Cyclicality, Engines, Margins, ROIC, travel demand | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | GE | General Electric Co. | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | Aerospace, aftermarket, Cyclicality, Engines, Margins, ROIC, travel demand | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Christopher Smith | RR | Rolls-Royce Holdings plc | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | NYSE | — | Login |
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