Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.2% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 10.2% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
Appalaches Core LO lost 2.2% in Q1 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.4% decline. Manager Jake Keys emphasizes investing in quality businesses during uncertain times, distinguishing between important uncertainty and mere discomfort. The portfolio made significant changes this quarter, selling Canadian National due to poor management execution despite improving rail market fundamentals, and exiting ASML after the stock doubled while earnings estimates rose only 50%. The fund's largest new investments were Visa and Mastercard, purchased during market concerns about the Credit Card Competition Act and AI threats through agentic commerce. Keys argues both payment networks have structural moats through scale and network effects that will persist despite regulatory and technological challenges. Both companies have developed their own agentic payment protocols, positioning them to benefit from rather than be disrupted by AI-driven commerce. The manager continues focusing on idiosyncratic businesses with strong competitive positions, expecting to be well compensated for navigating uncertainty through partnerships with great management teams.
Invest in great businesses trading at attractive prices during periods of uncertainty, focusing on companies with structural advantages that can adapt to changing environments rather than being disrupted by them.
Manager expects to be well compensated for dealing with uncertain environment ahead by partnering with great businesses led by proactive management teams. Aims to move portfolio toward more exposure to idiosyncratic businesses and cycles rather than average and abundant opportunities.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20 2026 | 2026 Q1 | ASML, CNI, CP, GOOGL, LRCX, MA, V | AI, payments, Railroads, semiconductors, uncertainty, value |
V MA |
Appalaches outperformed in Q1 by selling overvalued semiconductor equipment stocks and buying Visa and Mastercard during AI and regulatory fears. Manager believes payment networks' structural advantages and scale will persist through challenges, with both companies already developing agentic commerce protocols. Focus remains on quality businesses at attractive prices during uncertainty. |
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACGL, ASML, AZO, EXP, GOOGL, PGR, PM, VMC | alpha, Concentration, large cap, long-term, Patience, Quality, value |
GOOG ASML |
Appalaches Core LO delivered 16.5% net returns with 6.1 points of alpha through concentrated investing in 12 quality companies with durable competitive advantages. The manager successfully navigated market volatility by buying discounted large-cap stocks like Alphabet and ASML, challenging efficient market assumptions while maintaining patient capital deployment focused on long-term value creation. |
| Oct 20 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ACGL, AMZN, AZO, BRK-B, CME, COST, CP, CSX, GOOGL, LRCX, PGR | Concentration, insurance, long-term, Railroads, semiconductors, value |
PGR CSX LRCX PGR CSX LRCX |
Concentrated value investor delivered 7.0% Q3 returns through disciplined capital allocation. Sold overvalued Lam Research and competitively challenged CSX, reinvesting in Progressive's scale economies shared model and Canadian Pacific's unique rail network. Maintains significant cash for opportunities while avoiding speculative market behavior, focusing on quality businesses at substantial discounts to intrinsic value. |
| Jul 19 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ACGL, ASML, AZO, CNI, CSX, EFX, EXP, GOOG, LRCX, MLM, SGOV, VMC | Barriers, Building Materials, durability, Quality, Railroads, semiconductors, Trade Policy, value |
EXP US LRCX US ASML US EXP |
Appalaches gained 7.4% in Q2 by capitalizing on trade policy-driven selloff to add aggressively to semiconductor equipment stocks Lam Research and ASML, plus initiating Eagle Materials position. Despite markets returning to all-time highs with fevered sentiment, manager maintains focus on durable, advantaged businesses that can compound capital over time. |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ACGL, ASML, AZO, CME, CNI, CSX, GOOG, LAD, LRCX, SGOV | Cyclical, insurance, Quality, Railroads, semiconductors, tariffs, Trade Policy, value |
ACGL ASML LRCX |
Despite Q1 tariff volatility causing broad market declines, Appalaches Capital outperformed by focusing on quality companies at attractive valuations. New positions in semiconductor equipment and insurance capitalize on cyclical recovery and structural advantages. While trade policy creates near-term uncertainty, the manager believes America's institutional strength and the fund's disciplined approach will generate long-term value. |
| Jan 18 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AZO, CME, CNI, CPNG, CSX, GOOG, LAD, MKL, SAFT, SGOV | Concentration, insurance, Railroads, small caps, technology, value | - | Appalaches returned 7.9% in 2024 while navigating excessive market froth and regulatory risks. Manager sold frothy positions and South Korean exposure after martial law, maintaining focus on railroads, insurance, and exchanges trading below fair value. Despite disappointing results, conviction grows in concentrated value approach as market excess creates opportunities for selective stock picking. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AZO, CME, CNI, CPNG, CSX, GOOGL, LAD, OCI, TELL | Auto Aftermarket, E-Commerce, Event-Driven, Exchanges, Railroads, spinoffs, value | - | Appalaches deployed cash during Q3 volatility into railroads betting on service-driven volume growth, exchanges facing overblown competition fears, and dominant Korean e-commerce at attractive valuations. The concentrated value approach targets businesses with scale-reinforced competitive advantages. Portfolio now two-thirds allocated to risk assets with remaining cash earmarked for similar discount opportunities. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AZO, GOOGL, LAD, PLX, SGOV | Absolute Returns, Auto Dealers, Cash, Concentration, value | LAD | Appalaches Core LO's absolute return strategy underperformed in Q2 as market concentration favored mega-caps over value opportunities. Manager maintains disciplined cash position while finding selective opportunities like Lithia Motors in misunderstood automotive dealership sector. Believes current bifurcation mirrors late 1990s, creating value in discarded corners as indices become increasingly concentrated and expensive. |
| May 2 2025 | 2024 Q1 | AZO, GOOGL, NVDA, PLX.PA, SAFT, SYENS.PA, VSTS | AI, Behavioral Finance, Europe, risk management, Specialty Chemicals, Spin-Offs, value |
VSTS SYENS PLX GOOGL |
Appalaches Capital delivered 4.1% in Q1 with low market exposure, selling Vestis on execution concerns while adding European spin-offs Syensqo and Pluxee. The manager warns against AI availability bias but sees productivity benefits. Despite rich valuations and limited opportunities, the fund maintains its disciplined, concentrated approach while planning to increase position sizing going forward. |
| Feb 8 2024 | 2023 Q4 | GOOG, MKL, SAFT, VSTS | Cash, insurance, Patience, small caps, Spin-Offs, value |
SAFT VSTS |
First-quarter manager maintains large cash position and low equity exposure despite market rally, focusing on mispriced securities driven by non-economic factors. Top holdings Safety Insurance and Vestis represent fire sale and spinoff opportunities respectively. Strategy emphasizes patience and flexibility over benchmark performance, positioning for attractive risk-adjusted returns across full market cycles through concentrated value investing approach. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager views AI as creating uncertainty for legacy providers but believes great businesses will adapt. Discusses AI threats to payment networks through agentic commerce but argues Visa and Mastercard are well-positioned with their own agentic protocols. |
Artificial Intelligence Agentic Commerce Technology |
PaymentsMajor new investments in Visa and Mastercard despite regulatory and technological headwinds. Manager believes their network advantages and scale provide structural moats that will persist through challenges. |
Credit Cards Networks Interchange | |
SemiconductorsSold ASML and previously Lam Research due to significant price appreciation outpacing earnings growth. Manager concerned about valuations requiring nearly triple earnings growth for satisfactory returns. |
Equipment Valuations EUV | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been the defining theme of market leadership in 2025, driving data center capex and benefiting semis, electrical equipment, and tech hardware. The theme reasserted dominance after NVIDIA's strong earnings in late November, though concerns about durability caused temporary rotation. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Infrastructure |
ElectrificationPortfolio maintains largest absolute and relative exposure to Industrials sector representing conviction in the Electrification theme. Bloom Energy benefited from AI data center power demands, with fuel cells providing reliable onsite power generation. |
Power Generation Grid Infrastructure Energy Storage | |
BiotechnologyBiotech delivered its best quarter in five years driven by improving rate environment, easing regulation enabling more M&A, and excitement around AI's promise in drug discovery efficiency. Sector was a standout performer during the quarter. |
Drug Discovery M&A Regulation | |
SolarFirst Solar benefited from Trump Administration's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' driving US demand for non-China solar products. Company differentiates with thin-film CdTe technology offering better performance in hot/humid/low light conditions. |
Manufacturing Trade Policy Technology | |
SpaceRocket Lab operates as end-to-end space company in Launch Services and Space Systems segments. Stock gained nearly 50% on strong earnings and growing backlog, though late-quarter initiation meant it was a relative performance detractor. |
Launch Services Satellites Defense | |
| 2025 Q3 |
InsuranceProgressive represents a scale economies shared model where the company maintains a 96% combined ratio target, passing scale efficiencies to customers through lower premiums. This creates a flywheel effect attracting more customers and enabling further cost reductions through better data and economies of scale. |
Auto Insurance Combined Ratio Underwriting Market Share Pricing |
RailroadsSold CSX due to competitive pressures from the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger creating a coast-to-coast network that CSX cannot match. Reinvested proceeds into Canadian Pacific which offers unique connectivity across Canada, US, and Mexico that no other railroad provides. |
Rail Networks Mergers Transportation Cross-Border Competition | |
SemiconductorsCompletely divested Lam Research after the stock nearly doubled from initial purchase and tripled from April lows. Despite similar business expectations, prospective returns became far less appealing at current elevated prices compared to earlier in the year. |
Valuation Equipment Cyclical Price Appreciation Returns | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyManager discusses how tariff threats caused market panic in Q2, leading to 20%+ drawdowns in some indices. While tariffs were subsequently reduced or delayed, the threat remains though investors seem less reactive now. Trade policy uncertainty continues to affect businesses assessing supply chain impacts. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Policy |
SemiconductorsAdded aggressively to Lam Research and ASML during April selloff when shares traded 25-30% below February highs. These companies are perceived as highly sensitive to trade policy due to Asia revenue exposure, but manager believes semiconductor production will continue somewhere and these companies will remain essential suppliers. |
ASML Lam Research Asia Foundries | |
Building MaterialsInitiated position in Eagle Materials, a cement and wallboard producer. Cement industry benefits from high barriers to entry due to environmental regulations, capital intensity, and proximity requirements. Supply-demand imbalance exists with US consuming 110M tons but producing only 86M tons, creating pricing power for inland producers. |
Cement Wallboard Barriers Pricing Power | |
RailroadsRailroad holdings have shown resilient traffic data in first half of year. Merchandise carloads showed modest growth despite trade policy uncertainty. Rails transport essential commodities at unmatched scale and cost versus other transportation modes. |
Rail Traffic Commodities Transportation | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyNew tariff policies announced in February and March have created market volatility, with reciprocal tariffs causing the S&P 500 to drop 20% below recent highs. The manager draws parallels to historical trade restrictions but believes current policies will not end American hegemony due to strong institutional foundations. |
Tariffs Trade Policy Globalization Uncertainty |
SemiconductorsInitiated positions in ASML and Lam Research as the semiconductor industry recovers from cyclical trough. Foundries have announced large capital expenditure increases flowing to equipment manufacturers. Both companies operate in highly consolidated industries with high barriers to entry and strong competitive moats. |
Semi Equipment Capital Expenditure Cyclical Recovery Consolidation Barriers | |
InsuranceInitiated position in Arch Capital Group, a Bermuda-based diversified insurer. The company manages agency costs through unique ten-year lookback compensation for underwriters and maintains one of the lowest combined ratios at 88% over 15 years. Bermuda capital requirement increases benefit strong incumbents. |
Underwriting Agency Costs Combined Ratio Reinsurance Capital Requirements | |
RailroadsCanadian National and CSX are positioned to benefit from tightening trucking markets and potential volume shifts to Mexican and Canadian Pacific ports due to increased Chinese port fees. Both companies could benefit from any industrial production rebound resulting from tariffs. |
Freight Trucking Industrial Production Port Volume Transportation | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Risk AppetiteManager observes excessive risk-seeking behavior in markets, with crypto currencies obtaining market capitalizations large enough for S&P 600 inclusion and quantum computing stocks inflating to unbelievable valuations despite minimal revenues. This frothy environment makes the manager uneasy despite being wrong about pessimism last year. |
Speculation Valuations Froth Crypto |
RailroadsRecently initiated railroad holdings continue to look increasingly attractive as boring but highly profitable businesses that can benefit under a variety of regulatory frameworks. These positions are still finding their footing in the portfolio. |
Infrastructure Transportation Regulation | |
RegulatoryManager discusses regulatory capture risks, noting that populist attitudes globally are leading to increased scrutiny of entities perceived as taking advantage of systems. This creates left-tail risks for businesses with regulation-driven moats, as seen with meal voucher companies facing fee caps and competition requirements. |
Populism Capture Moats Government | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RailroadsNorth American railroads have not seen volume growth over 20 years despite being the cheapest, cleanest, and safest freight transportation due to poor reliability. Recent implementation of scheduled railroading by CSX and Canadian National should improve service metrics and drive real volume growth. Both companies are reinvesting in service rather than just cutting costs. |
Transportation Infrastructure Service Volume Scheduled |
E-commerceCoupang dominates South Korean e-commerce with nearly half the population as active customers. The company offers same-day delivery to 70% of South Korea's population and is targeting 10% free cash flow margins as it matures. Trading at less than 10x estimated 2030 normalized free cash flow with significant growth runway. |
Marketplace Delivery Korea Growth Margins | |
ExchangesCME Group maintains 99% share of US treasury futures despite new competition from BGC Group's FMX exchange. Trading fees are small portion of costs compared to spreads, and CME benefits from cross-margining across diverse products. New competitor has gained minimal traction with only 1,177 contracts versus CME's 12 million. |
Futures Liquidity Competition Derivatives Treasury | |
Auto AftermarketAutoZone benefits from a self-reinforcing flywheel where scale enables better inventory management and supplier relationships. The fragmented automotive aftermarket requires immediate availability of parts, giving AutoZone favorable payment terms and more flexible supplier credit that enables stocking more inventory. |
Inventory Distribution Scale Suppliers Fragmentation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Auto DealersManager initiated position in Lithia Motors, the largest automotive dealership group in the US. Believes dealership industry is misunderstood as dealers now generate majority of gross profit from ongoing maintenance, parts, warranty, insurance and financing services rather than vehicle sales. Lithia's strategy of acquiring independent lots and improving operations creates value through expanded footprint and operational improvements. |
Dealerships Automotive Services Acquisitions Aftermarket |
ValueManager emphasizes absolute return framework requiring securities to meet specific return hurdles before investment. Maintains cash position not for market timing but due to valuation discipline. Believes current market bifurcation creates opportunities in discarded corners while indices become increasingly concentrated and expensive. |
Valuation Absolute Returns Cash Discipline Concentration | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIArtificial Intelligence has dominated market attention with NVIDIA's share price nearly doubling in Q1. The manager views AI as creating productivity gains across industries through better insurance underwriting, inventory management, and targeted advertising. However, the manager warns against the availability heuristic affecting investment decisions, citing Google's temporary decline on AI-related concerns as an opportunity. |
NVIDIA Google Productivity Semiconductors Search |
Spin-offsThe manager has found opportunities in European spin-offs including Syensqo and Pluxee, where forced selling and data provider errors created mispricings. While spin-offs may no longer provide automatic outperformance, specific situations still offer unique opportunities for those willing to provide liquidity during initial trading periods. |
Syensqo Pluxee Forced Selling Mispricing Liquidity | |
EuropeThe manager has shifted focus to European markets due to significant valuation gaps versus the US. European companies like Syensqo and Pluxee are multinationals with global exposure that aren't dependent on local European economic strength, offering attractive opportunities despite regional stagnation. |
Valuation Gap Multinationals Syensqo Pluxee Stagnation | |
Specialty ChemicalsSyensqo represents a high-margin specialty chemicals producer with broad end market exposure and top-3 positions in 90% of its markets. The company benefits from moderate pricing power due to high switching costs, though volumes remain subject to specific end market conditions. |
Syensqo Margins Pricing Power End Markets Switching Costs | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueManager focuses on purchasing securities at significant discounts to intrinsic value, emphasizing patience and waiting for attractive valuations rather than following market momentum. The strategy involves identifying mispriced securities where non-economic factors drive undervaluation. |
Undervalued Intrinsic Value Discount Mispricing Valuations |
P&C InsuranceSafety Insurance represents a profitable underwriter with 97% combined ratio over the last decade, operating conservatively with fixed-income investments. The company was caught in regional banking crisis selling despite not being directly affected, creating opportunity. |
Combined Ratio Underwriting Claims Premiums Fire Sale |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | MA | Mastercard Incorporated | Credit Services | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Artificial Intelligence, financial services, Fintech, international exposure, network effects, Payment Networks, Regulatory risk, Technology Disruption | Login |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | V | Visa Inc. | Credit Services | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Artificial Intelligence, financial services, Fintech, international exposure, network effects, Payment Networks, Regulatory risk, Technology Disruption | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, Largecap, mispricing, Search | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Lithography, mispricing, Monopoly, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | PGR | Progressive Corp. | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | combined ratio, Cost leadership, Flywheel, market share, Pricing power, Scale economies, Underwriting margin | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | CSX | CSX Corp. | Industrials | Railroads | Bear | NASDAQ | Competition, execution risk, Leadership Change, network effects, Pricing pressure, Rail consolidation | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | LRCX | Lam Research Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bear | NASDAQ | capital intensity, Cycle risk, Export controls, multiple expansion, valuation, Wafer fab equipment | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | PGR | Progressive Corp. | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NYSE | combined ratio, Cost leadership, Flywheel, market share, Pricing power, Scale economies, Underwriting margin | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | CSX | CSX Corp. | Industrials | Railroads | Bear | NASDAQ | Competition, execution risk, Leadership Change, network effects, Pricing pressure, Rail consolidation | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | LRCX | Lam Research Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bear | NASDAQ | capital intensity, Cycle risk, Export controls, multiple expansion, valuation, Wafer fab equipment | Login |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | ASML US | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Equipment, Euv, Lithography, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | EXP US | Eagle Materials Inc. | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NYSE | Barriers, Cement, construction, materials, Pricing | Login |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jake Keys | LRCX US | Lam Research Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Cyclicals, Equipment, Foundries, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | EXP | Eagle Materials | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NYSE | Cement, commodity, construction materials, Gypsum, manufacturing, Pricing power, regulatory barriers, Share Buybacks, supply constraints, Wallboard | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Capital equipment, Cyclical, EUV lithography, high switching costs, Monopoly, Netherlands, semiconductors, technology | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Capital equipment, Cyclical, Deposition, Etch Equipment, Memory, Nand, patents, semiconductors, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | ACGL | Arch Capital Group Ltd. | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NASDAQ | Agency Costs, Bermuda, combined ratio, E&s, Insurance, PMI, Reinsurance, underwriting, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | LAD | Lithia Motors, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | acquisition strategy, Automotive Dealerships, contrarian, Floor Plan Financing, Franchise Laws, margin expansion, OEM Relationships, Omnichannel, Parts and Service, Service revenue, Specialty retail, Value | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Behavioral Mispricing, contrarian, cost-cutting, market dominance, search engine, technology | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | SYENS | Syensqo | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | Euronext Brussels | Cyclical Recovery, Data Discrepancy, European Equity, high margins, market leadership, specialty chemicals, spinoff | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | PLX | Pluxee N.V. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | Euronext Paris | duopoly, Employee Benefits, European Equity, Float Income, Payments Network, Prepaid Cards, regulatory barriers, spinoff | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | VSTS | Vestis Corporation | Commercial Services & Supplies | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bear | NYSE | Commercial Services, competitive positioning, deleveraging, management execution, spinoff, turnaround, Uniform Rental | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | VSTS | Vestis Corporation | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | NYSE | Discount to Intrinsic Value, Fragmented Industry, High retention, Incremental Returns, management experience, Post-spin Selling, Recession-resistant, Route-based Business, spin-off, Uniform Services | Login |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Fund Letters | Appalaches Capital | SAFT | Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | Financials | Property & Casualty Insurance | Bull | NASDAQ | Banking Crisis, combined ratio, conservative management, Fire Sale, low duration, Property & Casualty Insurance, Regional Insurer, Small-Cap Financial, Underwriting Profits, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CNI | We sold our shares in Canadian National following their poor outlook for the coming year. By all measures, we seem to be exiting a prolonged freight recession with rejection rates in the trucking market increasing, capacity decreasing, and spot rates finally gaining some strength. This should make this a particularly attractive market for rail, since an expensive trucking market makes cheap rail look all the more attractive. Canadian National, on the other hand, projected flat volumes and similarly flat profitability. I still believe that it has a great asset in its network, but it seems as though the management team is not realizing its full potential. |
| CP | Our other railroad holding, Canadian Pacific, was much more optimistic and guided towards some attractive growth in volumes and profits, as did other railroads to varying extents. The great team at Canadian Pacific makes the decision easy. |
| ASML | At the time of writing this letter, we have also sold our stake in ASML. From our purchase to our sale, the stock price had appreciated just over two-fold while analyst earnings estimates for the next few years have risen around 50% to a more reasonable level. It seems to me that we would need ASML to nearly triple their earnings over the next five years to receive a satisfactory return, assuming a reasonable valuation on those earnings. It is possible for this to happen since EUV orders are rising quickly, but uncertainty does not seem to be on our side at this price. |
| LRCX | We sold our stake in Lam Research at the end of last year due to significant price appreciation. |
| GOOGL | Our initial investment in Alphabet was when the company was thought to be an AI loser, and now the company is thought to be amongst the leaders in the space. |
| V | Our new investments this quarter each seem to be thought of as having competitive headwinds from AI. Less than a fifth of Visa's credit transaction volumes come from the United States. Visa has created their own Trusted Agent Protocol (TAP) which authorizes agents in a similar way, meaning that both networks own the standards of agentic commerce. |
| MA | Our new investments this quarter each seem to be thought of as having competitive headwinds from AI. Less than a sixth of Mastercard's credit transaction volumes come from the United States. MasterCard's Agent Pay suite has tools that allows AI agents to make purchases on behalf of consumers in a secure, transparent, and rules-based protocol using the security and fraud protection of the underlying MasterCard network. |
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