The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aptus Capital Advisors' Q2 2026 newsletter emphasizes that beneath market noise and change, foundational drivers remain strong: growing earnings and increasing corporate profitability. The S&P 500 gained 15.2% in Q2, recovering from geopolitical shocks after the Iran ceasefire, pushing YTD returns to 10.2%. Q1 2026 delivered one of the strongest earnings seasons ever with 27% S&P 500 earnings growth, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion. The breadth was notable with smaller companies flourishing alongside large-cap peers. Kevin Warsh's Fed transition brings significant changes including reduced communication and balance sheet reduction, representing a shift toward letting markets play a bigger role. AI-driven earnings continued exceeding expectations though markets are scrutinizing hyperscaler capex deployment. Market participation is broadening beyond mega-cap technology with equal-weighted S&P 500 up 12.1% YTD. The manager maintains conviction that as long as earnings grow at exceptional pace, the bull market remains intact, with fiscal stimulus, supportive monetary policy, and accelerating AI capital spending as key supports.
Corporate earnings growth and expanding profitability remain the foundational drivers of market performance, with Q1 2026 delivering one of the strongest earnings seasons ever at 27% growth marking six consecutive quarters of double-digit expansion.
The manager expects the bull market to remain intact as long as earnings continue growing at historically exceptional pace, with the burden of proof remaining with bears. The three key tenets supporting the market remain: fiscal policy is stimulative, monetary policy under new leadership remains supportive despite transition, and private capital spending on AI continues to accelerate. The tone is constructive and optimistic while acknowledging that change is constant and adaptation is essential.
As of Aug 4, 2026
John David Gardner, CFA, CMT founded Aptus Capital Advisors in 2013 after working at UBS and Morgan Stanley Smith Barney in Cincinnati. He holds a BS in Business with a major in Financial Services and an MBA with a concentration in Finance from Wright State University's Raj Soin College of Business. As Chief Investment Officer, Gardner leads a firm that has grown from $379 million in 2018 to over $13 billion by 2025. The firm employs 36 people and manages 9,347 client accounts across multiple states. Gardner's vision centers on creating better client outcomes through risk-mitigated investment solutions.
Quality Value / Growth
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
The letter demonstrates moderate conviction through clear thesis articulation around earnings and profitability as foundational drivers, with specific data points supporting the bull case (27% earnings growth, six consecutive quarters of double-digit expansion, 85% beat rate). However, conviction is limited by the absence of specific portfolio positioning details, individual position sizing, or named holdings beyond the market commentary on mega-cap stocks. The manager discusses broad asset allocation ('overweights stocks') and hedging strategy but does not provide concrete position-level detail. The philosophical tone and emphasis on adaptation over decisive action, combined with hedged language throughout ('we believe,' 'should'), places this in the moderate conviction range. The explanation clearly states the letter lacks specific holdings discussion, which caps the score below 0.70 per the hard rule.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Aptus maintains conviction in risk assets despite Q1 volatility from Iran conflict and AI disruption. Strong earnings fundamentals with S&P 500 posting record 5th straight quarter ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: Aptus maintains conviction in risk assets despite Q1 volatility from Iran conflict and AI disruption. Strong earnings fundamentals with S&P 500 posting record 5th straight quarter ...
Capital Deployment
The letter provides no specific information about cash level changes or net deployment activity during Q2 2026. The manager describes maintaining an asset allocation that overweights stocks with hedging intact, suggesting stable positioning rather than active deployment or de-risking. There is no discussion of adding new positions, scaling existing holdings, or raising cash. The emphasis on 'focus on what they can control; Prepare for what they cannot' suggests a monitoring posture. Without evidence of cash level changes or net position additions, and given the description of maintained positioning with guardrails, this scores near neutral with a slight positive bias reflecting the maintained equity overweight in a rising market.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Aptus maintains conviction in risk assets despite Q1 volatility from Iran conflict and AI disruption. Strong earnings fundamentals with S&P 500 posting record 5th straight quarter ...
Language Signal
The language balance leans bullish with phrases like 'one of the strongest earnings seasons ever,' 'absolute boom in earnings,' 'historically exceptional pace,' and 'bull market remains intact.' Positive terms dominate including 'opportunity,' 'growth,' 'expanding,' 'flourishing,' and 'broadening.' However, the letter also contains meaningful risk language including 'anxiety,' 'toxic friction,' 'scrutiny,' 'fragile,' and 'uncertainty.' The Succession metaphor throughout adds cautionary framing about change and adaptation. The net balance is more bullish than bearish but not overwhelmingly so, with the manager acknowledging both opportunities and risks in roughly 65/35 proportion.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Aptus maintains conviction in risk assets despite Q1 volatility from Iran conflict and AI disruption. Strong earnings fundamentals with S&P 500 posting record 5th straight quarter ...
Opportunity Density
The manager describes a broadening opportunity set with 'one of the more encouraging developments in financial markets has been the broadening of equity market participation beyond the narrow band of mega-cap technology names.' Specific opportunities are identified across smaller stocks, international equities, Emerging Markets (up 44%), and multiple sectors posting double-digit EPS growth (73% of sectors). The discussion of AI trade rotation through semiconductors, power, hyperscalers, and memory suggests multiple phases of opportunity. However, the manager also notes selectivity is required ('shoot first, ask questions later' in software) and that markets are drawing sharp lines between winners and losers. This indicates a selective but reasonably abundant opportunity set, placing it in the upper-moderate range.
Time Horizon
The letter emphasizes medium-term themes without specifying explicit timeframes. The discussion of six consecutive quarters of earnings growth and forward expectations suggests a multi-quarter to multi-year perspective. The Fed transition analysis and five task forces examining structural questions implies a 1-3 year view of policy evolution. The AI infrastructure discussion focuses on ongoing capex deployment and rotation through phases rather than imminent catalysts. The manager's emphasis on adaptation and avoiding the 'pursuit of perfection' suggests patience, but there is no explicit permanent capital structure or decade-plus language. The quarterly newsletter format and discussion of recent market performance indicates active monitoring rather than pure buy-and-hold. This places the time horizon in the medium-term range of 1-3 years.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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