| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
ARK Investment Management's Q4 2025 report presents a thesis centered on transformative technological convergence driving economic growth. Chief Investment Officer Catherine Wood argues that despite apparent GDP growth, the US economy has experienced a rolling recession since 2022 due to aggressive Fed rate hikes. However, she believes this has created a coiled spring effect that will propel productivity-driven growth. The firm expects convergences among AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomics sequencing to accelerate productivity growth to 4-6% annually. Key catalysts include President Trump's pro-growth policies, the OB3 tax bill making the US globally competitive, and potential Fed rate cuts that could spark housing recovery. ARK sees inflation dropping to surprisingly low levels due to falling oil prices, housing deflation, and productivity gains. The innovation space is recovering with favorable policy shifts around crypto, AI, and healthcare. Portfolio performance was mixed across ARK's ETFs, with strong contributions from AI-related holdings like AMD and Teradyne, while crypto and gaming positions like Coinbase and Roblox detracted. The firm maintains concentrated positions in highest-conviction innovation names.
ARK believes transformative convergences among AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomics sequencing will drive a productivity-led economic boom, supported by favorable policy shifts and technological breakthroughs that should accelerate growth and create significant wealth.
ARK expects convergences among major innovation platforms to accelerate productivity growth to 4-6% annually, supporting nominal GDP growth of 5-6% and creating significant wealth. The firm believes favorable policy shifts and technological breakthroughs will catalyze economic growth, while inflation could drop to surprisingly low or negative rates in coming years.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACHR, AMD, AVAV, COIN, CRSP, DE, GH, GOOG, HOOD, KTOS, PLTR, RBLX, RKLB, ROKU, SHOP, TEM, TER, TRMB, TSLA, TWST | AI, crypto, defense, Genomics, innovation, productivity, Robotics, technology | - | ARK believes convergences among major platforms like AI, robotics, energy storage, public blockchain technology, and multiomics sequencing should accelerate non-farm productivity growth to 4–6% on a year-over-year basis. AI-related spending boom on data centers and power plants began in late 2022. Strong demand for AI-related chip testing and semiconductor testing across compute, networking, and memory. Robotics is identified as one of the major transformative innovation platforms that should converge with AI and other technologies to drive productivity gains. The ARK Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF focuses on companies developing autonomous mobility, humanoid robots, and intelligent devices. Energy storage is highlighted as one of the key transformative innovation platforms that will converge with AI, robotics, blockchain, and multiomics sequencing to accelerate productivity growth and economic transformation in the coming years. ARK sees favorable policy shifts around crypto as supportive headwinds shifting into structural tailwinds for innovation. Coinbase faced challenges from weakness in crypto market trading activity, with quarterly spot trading volumes declining 9% quarter-over-quarter. The firm maintains exposure through Bitcoin ETFs and crypto-related companies. Multiomics sequencing is identified as one of the major transformative platforms. The genomics space benefited from increasingly positive sentiment following Abbott's acquisition of Exact Sciences. Companies like Guardant Health and Natera showed strong performance with significant revenue growth and clinical trial successes. Defense spending represents a significant opportunity with the U.S. Army announcing plans to purchase at least one million drones in the next 2–3 years. Companies like Kratos Defense, AeroVironment, and Rocket Lab are positioned in this space, though innovation-based defense stocks experienced broad sell-offs during the quarter. |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Fintech, Genomics, Robotics | - | ARKs ETFs outperformed broad indexes as AI, robotics, genomics, and fintech drove strong gains across portfolios. The firm argues that innovation-led deflation, productivity gains, and policy support under OB3 are creating a new growth cycle. Top contributors included Tesla, Robinhood, and CRISPR, underscoring conviction in disruptive technologies with long-term compounding potential. |
| Jul 16 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, disruption, exponential growth, innovation, technology | - | The letter centers on disruptive innovation across artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, and biotechnology. Management argues that short-term volatility masks long-term exponential growth potential driven by declining costs and technological convergence. Innovation-led companies are framed as long-duration growth assets. |
| Apr 16 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 16 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines | |
Energy StorageGRID is the largest owner of operational battery storage projects in the UK with over 1GW of capacity and substantial pipeline. Additional tolling agreements and long-term refinancing enable CAPEX programme for augmentation and new capacity. Expected to generate material free cash flow for buybacks or dividends. |
Battery Storage Grid Storage Energy Infrastructure Tolling Agreements CAPEX | |
GenomicsBreakthroughs in genomics have changed the practice of medicine. Genomic sequencing technology, clinical knowledge and data analytics have converged to generate diagnostics and treatments specific to individual patients and diseases. Companies leading the genomic medical revolution are well positioned for long-term outperformance. |
Medical Technology Personalized Medicine Data Analytics Healthcare Innovation | |
RoboticsRobotics was identified as one of the manager's top five secular trends for the near-to-medium term. This represents an area of focus for finding category leaders before they become widely discovered, though specific robotics investments were not detailed in this letter. |
Automation Technology Industrial Innovation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Innovation |
||
RoboticsRobotics was identified as one of the manager's top five secular trends for the near-to-medium term. This represents an area of focus for finding category leaders before they become widely discovered, though specific robotics investments were not detailed in this letter. |
Automation Technology Industrial Innovation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Innovation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AVAV | The top three contributors to this underperformance came from AeroVironment (US Defense) |
| COIN | Coinbase (a new position) experienced extended volatility as crypto currency prices softened into December. We continued to build exposure to our financial deregulation and disintermediation of financial services theme through the purchase of Coinbase, to gain exposure to the regulated infrastructure of cryptocurrencies - particularly stablecoins - following the passage of the GENIUS Act by Congress. |
| DE | Deere treaded water as the market wanted AI momentum and not our names. |
| GH | Guardant Health, a provider of blood-based diagnostic tests for cancer, performed particularly well, driven by strong Q3 results. Its core oncology business grew revenues 30% vs. 20% in the previous quarter, an acceleration driven by innovative product enhancements. Furthermore, its colon cancer screening tests continued to perform well, growing 50% sequentially from Q2. While shares were up significantly in 2025, we remain bullish on the business, as Guardant continues to lead the charge in converting oncology testing from tissue to blood. |
| GOOG | From the moment OpenAI hit the scene with ChatGPT 3.5 in the Fall of 2022, Google was a perceived loser and thousands of pontificators warned about the end of search. Fast forward three years and this was Google Search's fastest quarter of revenue growth since Q1 2022, when the reopening and pandemic were still considerable drivers of results. In parallel with the Search re-acceleration, Google has also emerged as a leader in AI itself. This combination has been potent for Google's stock and could not have opened on Search alone, given the terminal value fears. |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a digital brokerage platform serving retail investors. Shares detracted during the quarter following robust performance over the first nine months of the year. While overall activity levels remain strong, Robinhood experienced some softening in customer engagement in November, with cryptocurrency trading volumes in particular declining on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. |
| KTOS | Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is a defense technology company focused on affordable unmanned systems, hypersonics and rocket systems, and satellite command-and-control, which we believe are increasingly aligned with U.S. and allied priorities around rapid fielding and scalable production. Kratos has invested deliberately in parts of the defense supply chain that we believe are increasingly critical to modern warfare and are now reaching an inflection point. Funding is beginning to flow into drone programs, demand for turbojet and turbofan engines is rising across unmanned aircraft and missile systems, and the company's C5ISR and space businesses continue to grow rapidly. While the company reported strong fiscal third-quarter operating results, shares detracted after management's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue outlook and free-cash-flow expectations came in below analyst estimates. Sentiment was further pressured by management commentary that cash receipts were being delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, as well as ongoing cost headwinds tied to certain legacy unmanned contracts, which weighed on confidence in near-term margins and cash conversion. |
| PLTR | The top three contributors to this outperformance came from Palantir Technologies (US Defense) |
| RBLX | An overweight position in Roblox Corp. (RBLX) detracted from performance. The stock declined following quarterly earnings, which signaled slower profit growth and uncertainty around future bookings. |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company which engages in the development of rocket launch and control systems for the space and defense industries. The company operates in two primary segments: Launch Services and Space Systems. Launch Services provides rides into orbit for small satellites with their Electron rocket. Space Systems designs and manufactures spacecraft components, satellite buses, and offers mission operations and other space solutions. The stock was up nearly 50% in the quarter on a strong set of earnings results and a growing backlog. While we initiated a position later in the quarter, the lack of exposure for the better part of the period meant the stock represented a detractor to relative performance. |
| ROKU | We added 4 new positions in Q4: one each in telecommunications (Roku) |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc. is a cloud-based software provider for multi-channel commerce. Shares rose 8.3% in the fourth quarter, finishing 2025 up 51.1% on strong financial results that outperformed Street expectations. The company is demonstrating rapid growth at scale with gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues each growing over 30% year-on-year. |
| TER | The fund's allocations to semiconductor equipment companies Teradyne and Applied Materials contributed positively to performance during the quarter, following a strong overall period for semiconductor capital equipment companies. Teradyne's strong price appreciation was led by an increased demand for semiconductor testing equipment, fueled by booming demand for AI accelerators and memory. Its management team also reported strong results for the third quarter of 2025 and issued optimistic guidance for future business with significant revenue growth year over year. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
| TWST | At some point I liked SLNO and TWST but then I realized the former is a bet on acquisition and the latter a bet on financial conditions being loose. |
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