| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 18.94% | -11.32% | -11.32% |
The Bailard Technology Strategy delivered -11.32% net returns in Q1 2026, underperforming benchmarks due to underweight exposure to Technology Hardware & Equipment and concentrated positions in Meta Platforms and streaming platforms. The fund maintains a high-conviction approach with 41 holdings concentrated in semiconductors (37.3%) and software (24.4%). Top contributors included semiconductor equipment companies KLA Corp and Lam Research, benefiting from sustained demand for wafer fabrication equipment, while Microsoft, AppLovin, and Meta were primary detractors amid software sector pressure from AI disruption fears. The fund sees massive opportunities in AI compute hardware, expecting frontier labs and hyperscalers to maintain elevated infrastructure spending through 2027. They anticipate a significant shift in data center architecture driving optical networking demand between 2027-2030. The strategy balances established leaders with emerging innovators, selectively redeploying semiconductor profits into software while maintaining meaningful AI hardware exposure and preparing for AI-native company opportunities as they become public.
High-conviction technology strategy focused on capturing durable growth across the global innovation cycle by combining established market leaders with emerging innovators, with particular emphasis on AI compute infrastructure and selective software opportunities positioned to benefit from AI acceleration.
The fund maintains a nuanced view of hardware versus software opportunities, continuing to seek selective opportunities in incumbent software providers well-positioned to use AI as a business accelerator. They expect to remain meaningfully invested in AI compute hardware with growing emphasis on next-generation components while preparing for AI-native company opportunities as they go public.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 2026 | 2026 Q1 | KLAC, LRCX, META, MRVL, MSFT, TSM | AI, Cloud, Data centers, hardware, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology Strategy underperformed in Q1 2026 due to software sector pressure and concentrated positioning, but maintains conviction in AI compute infrastructure opportunities. The fund expects sustained demand for semiconductor equipment and optical networking components through 2030, while selectively targeting incumbent software providers positioned to benefit from AI acceleration and preparing for emerging AI-native opportunities. |
| Feb 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, AMZN, CRM, DDOG, GOOGL, HUBS, KLAC, LRCX, META, MNDY, MSFT, MU, NOW, NTNX, NVDA, QCOM, SAP, TEAM, TSM, WD | AI, growth, infrastructure, positioning, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology Strategy repositioned from semiconductor winners to discounted software names as AI transitions from infrastructure build-out to application value creation. Despite Q4 underperformance, the strategy capitalizes on AI agent disruption fears creating selective opportunities in quality software franchises while maintaining exposure to strong semiconductor fundamentals through memory and equipment suppliers. |
| Oct 21 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, APP, CDNS, CYBR, FI, GOOGL, HUBS, INTU, KLAC, LRCX, META, MSFT, NSIT, NVDA, PSTG, SHOP, SPOT, TSM | AI, Data centers, energy, growth, infrastructure, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology delivered 9.36% in Q3 2025, led by AI infrastructure winners Nvidia and AppLovin. Energy efficiency has become the key constraint in AI deployment, driving tokens-per-watt as the governing metric. The strategy is actively repositioning toward cybersecurity and data center infrastructure while trimming overvalued AI names, positioned for continued secular AI growth amid supportive macro conditions. |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, ANET, AVGO, CRWD, CYBR, FISV, GOOGL, KLAC, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA, ORCL, PANW, SPOT, TEAM, TSLA, ZS | AI, Cloud, cybersecurity, Data centers, growth, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology delivered 22.98% Q2 returns powered by AI positioning across semiconductors, infrastructure software, and cybersecurity. The manager sees AI as transformational with datacenter build-out in early innings. They're building exposure to custom chips and networking while favoring infrastructure over application software. Technology should be core portfolio holding given broad economic impact and superior long-term returns. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, DDOG, FI, HUBS, INTU, KLAC, META, MSFT, NSIT, NVDA, PANW, PSTG, SPOT, TSM, TTD, UBER, V | AI, cybersecurity, semiconductors, software, tariffs, technology | - | Bailard Technology Strategy outperformed benchmarks in Q1 2025 despite -9.35% return, benefiting from semiconductor exposure while software positions detracted. New tariff policies create mixed implications with technology exemptions. Strategy maintains software focus over semiconductors, positioning for AI agents transition. Managers remain optimistic about long-term opportunities despite near-term policy uncertainty and AI spending questions. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, AVGO, CRWD, DDOG, FI, HUBS, KLAC, META, MRVL, MSFT, MU, NFLX, NSIT, NVDA, PANW, PSTG, SHOP, SMWB, SNOW, SPOT, TEAM, TSLA, TSM, TTD, UBER, VRNS | AI, cybersecurity, Data centers, Electric Vehicles, Fintech, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology Strategy delivered 30.23% net returns in 2024 despite Q4 underperformance, shifting from semiconductors to software while positioning for AI-driven growth. The strategy increased exposure to emerging software players and data-focused companies as AI's appetite for training data creates new investment opportunities across the technology ecosystem. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, CRWD, FISV, GOOGL, KLAC, LRCX, META, MSFT, MU, NFLX, NVDA, PANW, PSTG, SHOP.TO, SMAR, SPOT, TSM, UBER, WMT | AI, cybersecurity, growth, large cap, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Technology strategy underperformed in Q3 but maintains conviction in AI transition from infrastructure to applications. Reduced semiconductor exposure believing near-term peak reached, though viewing recent weakness as mid-cycle pause. Software recovery emerging with vendor consolidation ending and cloud bottoming. Cybersecurity remains core focus. Barbell approach targets established leaders and emerging innovators through 32-holding concentrated portfolio. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, FISV, KLAC, LRCX, META, MSFT, MU, NFLX, NTAP, NVDA, PANW, PSTG, SHOP, SNOW, SPOT, SPT, TSM, UBER | AI, growth, large cap, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology Strategy posted strong Q2 returns led by semiconductor exposure and AI infrastructure spending. The manager trimmed semiconductor positions due to valuation concerns and capacity constraints, while increasing software allocation focused on cybersecurity and enterprise recovery. Expects traditional IT spending rebound to drive outperformance in overlooked technology stocks, with AI software layer representing the largest long-term opportunity. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, BRZE, CDNS, GOOGL, INSG, KLAC, LRCX, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA, PSTG, QCOM, TXN, UBER, VRNS, ZI | AI, growth, semiconductors, software, technology | - | Bailard Technology Strategy delivered exceptional 68% annual returns driven by AI transformation and semiconductor recovery. The fund positioned for emerging technology bull market with concentrated exposure to secular AI growth and cyclical recovery in semiconductors and software. Manager sees broadening opportunities beyond mega-caps as technology emerges from rolling recessions across multiple submarkets. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIThe fund sees massive, sustained opportunities in AI compute hardware with capital from frontier labs flowing into compute infrastructure. They expect hyperscalers to maintain elevated spending through 2027 as they race to support increasingly capable systems. The fund has developed a framework to evaluate software companies' competitive differentiators against AI disruption, prioritizing companies with deep workflow integration and proprietary data. |
Compute Infrastructure Software Hardware Models |
SemiconductorsThe fund maintains meaningful investment in AI compute hardware with growing emphasis on next-generation high-performance compute, networking, and optical components. They see sustained demand for wafer fabrication equipment driven by increased capital spending on semiconductor production. The fund expects a significant acceleration in demand across the optical networking ecosystem between 2027 and 2030. |
Equipment Foundries Memory Optical Networking | |
Data CentersThe fund is monitoring a looming shift in data center architecture as token volumes and compute intensity surge, making data movement a primary bottleneck. They expect a meaningful acceleration in demand for optical networking technologies to handle higher throughput and lower latency requirements at scale, representing a significant long-term tailwind for the hardware landscape. |
Architecture Optical Networking Infrastructure Compute | |
CloudMicrosoft's Azure growth landed slightly below expectations due to increased internal compute allocation. The fund continues to seek selective opportunities in incumbent software providers that are well positioned to use AI as a business accelerator while preparing for attractive opportunities among AI-native companies as they become public. |
Azure Software Infrastructure Growth Providers | |
| 2025 Q4 |
FinancialsThe Fund is currently substantially invested in the Financials sector, with performance closely tied to developments in this industry. Companies in the Financials sector may be adversely affected by changes in the regulatory environment and interest rate changes. |
Banks Insurance Interest Rates Regulation |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI-driven demand continues to anchor sector fundamentals with surging investment in compute capacity and infrastructure. The focus has shifted to operational scalability, energy efficiency, and maturing economics of AI deployment. Computing efficiency now hinges on tokens per watt rather than simply low-cost silicon, making energy the binding constraint in modern AI data centers. |
Infrastructure Compute Energy Efficiency Deployment |
Data CentersEnergy now sits at the heart of AI compute economics with deals increasingly framed in power terms. Recent disclosures around hyperscale builds suggest today's state-of-the-art AI campuses cost on the order of $50-$60B per GW when including chips and supporting infrastructure. This underscores why tokens-per-watt is the governing metric for both providers and buyers. |
Power Infrastructure Hyperscale Energy Economics | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor sector benefited from cyclical demand in wafer equipment and U.S. semiconductor onshoring. Companies like Lam Research remain well-positioned in memory fabrication tools amid accelerating AI infrastructure investment. The sector continues to see expanding capital commitments to AI infrastructure investment. |
Equipment Memory Fabrication Onshoring Investment | |
Energy TransitionEnergy equipment suppliers and sources are becoming increasingly important in shaping AI's trajectory as computing efficiency becomes paramount. The focus on tokens per watt highlights the importance of adjacent industries in the AI ecosystem, particularly energy delivery systems. |
Equipment Efficiency Infrastructure Systems Computing | |
AdvertisingExceptional growth in mobile game advertising and programmatic AdTech fueled outsized performance, particularly for AppLovin. AI is transforming programmatic advertising with measurable ROI in areas such as programmatic advertising and expansion into ecommerce markets strengthening outlook. |
Programmatic Mobile Gaming AdTech ROI | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI is transformational across industries with tech being the engine powering adoption. The manager discusses AI's impact on search, emergence of AI native apps, and insatiable demand for high-performance compute hardware. They remain convicted in long-tail demand for compute power and continue building exposure to companies with products in custom chips and networking equipment. |
Machine Learning GPUs Compute LLMs Inference |
SemiconductorsSemiconductors were substantial contributors with high-performance compute, wafer manufacturing, and semiconductor capital equipment among key holdings. The manager believes datacenter demand for semiconductors is still in early innings of extensive build-out. They also see opportunities in cyclical rebound of analog ICs and components tied to traditional sectors. |
GPUs Memory Foundries Equipment Analog | |
CybersecurityAs AI becomes more sophisticated, so do bad actors, driving demand for data security. Companies focus on privileged access, endpoint security, network protection, zero-trust access management, and data privileges around AI agents and copilots. Cybersecurity only becomes more valuable as AI becomes more sophisticated. |
Endpoint Zero Trust Identity Network Security Data Protection | |
CloudInfrastructure software remains central to AI application development, productivity, and adoption. Companies like Microsoft and Oracle provide platforms and developer tools for building AI apps. The manager expects infrastructure software to maintain prominence while application software faces disruption from AI-native solutions. |
Infrastructure Platforms Developer Tools SaaS Enterprise | |
Data CentersDatacenters are in acceleration phase of HPC build-out as industries are in early stages of AI adoption. Demand for computing power is proliferating beyond hyperscale datacenters to enterprises, sovereign clouds, and small businesses. The HPC ecosystem is expanding with next-generation networking, switching, and optical interconnects. |
HPC Hyperscale Networking Switching Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIThe Strategy is positioned for the expected shift to AI agents and copilots, with software exposure tilted towards applications. The ecosystem surrounding AI software applications including security, agent monitoring, workflows, and infrastructure presents numerous investment opportunities over the next several years. |
Agents Copilots Infrastructure Applications Workflows |
SemiconductorsSemiconductors contributed significantly to returns, benefiting from exposure to analogs and underweighted positions in stocks impacted by the AI trade unwinding. The sector is viewed as being at the later stage of the recent cyclical expansion, with specific exemptions from new tariffs due to critical importance. |
Analogs Cyclical Tariffs Equipment Memory | |
CybersecurityCybersecurity remains a key component of the Strategy's software exposure. The modernization of government technology infrastructure is viewed as a long-term growth driver for companies in cybersecurity among other areas. |
Government Infrastructure Software Security Modernization | |
Trade PolicyThe Trump administration's tariff order has extensive implications for the technology sector, with tariffs aimed at boosting domestic tech manufacturing in advanced sectors like microelectronics and EV batteries. Technology-related industry exclusions include semiconductors, batteries, and critical minerals. |
Tariffs Manufacturing Domestic Exemptions Policy | |
SoftwareSoftware positions detracted from performance as higher growth software stocks underperformed, though the retrenchment presents promising long-term prospects. The Strategy favors software over semiconductors and has tilted exposure towards applications in preparation for AI agents and copilots. |
Applications Infrastructure Growth SaaS Enterprise | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI is increasingly becoming integrated into daily lives for search, planning, and productivity. Investment in data centers and GPU clusters for LLM training is anticipated to remain strong in 2025. Agentic AI is expected to gain traction in 2025 when industry-specific AI agents bring large language model capabilities directly to local users. |
LLM Agentic Training GPU Data Centers |
SemiconductorsRapid advancements in AI and investment in AI infrastructure drove segments of semiconductor complex to all-time highs. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) DRAM will likely accelerate in 2025, given the large volumes of high-speed dynamic storage needed by next-generation AI GPU accelerators. |
HBM DRAM GPU Memory Accelerators | |
Data CentersInvestment in data centers and GPU clusters for LLM training is anticipated to remain strong in 2025 and likely well beyond. Data has become especially valuable for training large language models, with companies like Similarweb providing transactional data through sampling and algorithmic upscaling. |
GPU LLM Training Infrastructure Cloud | |
CybersecurityData security remains an essential component of AI's expansion, though it comes with challenges. Despite CrowdStrike's problematic security patch that caused system crashes, the fundamental investment case for data security companies remains compelling. |
Data Security CrowdStrike Security Patch Enterprise Protection | |
FintechFintech remains a cornerstone for the Strategy. Fiserv's Clover point-of-sale systems, along with value-added services such as Clover Capital and various SaaS solutions, equip small and medium-sized businesses with essential operational tools. |
Point-of-Sale SaaS SMB Payments Clover | |
Electric VehiclesAutonomous vehicles are emerging faster than anticipated. Tesla is poised to launch its Robotaxi in the first half of 2025, and Waymo continues to expand into new markets. BYD in China has made impressive strides in showcasing AI-enabled smart cars with advanced autonomous capabilities. |
Autonomous Robotaxi Tesla Waymo Smart Cars | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIThe strategy anticipates a shift in IT budgets towards AI-enabled platforms and applications after infrastructure spending peaks. Enterprises are achieving significant productivity gains through AI solutions, with examples like Walmart improving 850 million catalog pieces and Palo Alto Networks reducing support headcount by 50%. The focus is moving from infrastructure hardware to application software as AI adoption becomes more widespread. |
Infrastructure Applications Productivity Enterprise Platforms |
Semiconductor CycleThe strategy significantly reduced semiconductor exposure from largest overweight to slightly underweight, believing AI infrastructure spending growth may be reaching near-term peak. However, they view the recent retrenchment as a mid-cycle pause rather than cyclical peak, with Taiwan Semiconductor advancing capacity expansion and Nvidia's Blackwell chip expected to exceed expectations. |
Cyclical Infrastructure Capacity Memory Foundry | |
CloudCloud activity appears to have bottomed in early 2024, with typically a four-quarter lag before consumption-based software sees upturn. The strategy observes subscription stabilization, price increases holding, and companies getting traction migrating clients to higher service tiers as the foundation is set for broader software sector recovery. |
Recovery Consumption Subscriptions Migration Stabilization | |
CybersecurityCybersecurity remains a central focus in positioning with exposure to companies like Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Varonis. The strategy prioritizes cybersecurity as enterprises continue to invest in security platforms and applications, particularly as AI implementations create new security considerations. |
Security Enterprise Platforms Investment Focus | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AISpending on AI infrastructure coupled with recovery in cyclical markets underscored improving fundamentals for semiconductors. Demand for high performance chips is spurring order activity for new wafer fabrication equipment, setting up a recovery in the tooling segment and strong upcycle in 2025. Apple unveiled a credible suite of AI-enabled apps and stoked expectations for a sizable iPhone upgrade cycle. |
Infrastructure Chips Servers Compute Applications |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor and related industries led Strategy returns for Q2 with large absolute and relative exposures. However, the manager trimmed semiconductor holdings broadly due to less attractive valuations and concentrated factor risk. Manufacturing capacity is mostly booked through 2026 and fabrication capacity may be a limiting factor not fully discounted in industry growth expectations. |
Memory Foundries Equipment Capacity Cyclical | |
SoftwareIncreasing the Strategy's software exposure remains a focus. The manager is building exposure to cybersecurity companies while avoiding eroding moats in large CRM players and mid-market HCM providers. They repositioned some high-growth software exposure, moving away from ecommerce and consumer engagement software towards companies with exposure to recovering IT workloads. |
Cybersecurity Enterprise IT SaaS Growth | |
Data CentersTechnology Hardware was the best performing tech industry group led by a cyclical recovery in AI servers, data storage, smartphones, and PCs. Flash providers like Pure Storage and NetApp anticipate further wins in the hyperscale datacenter market which could meaningfully expand the TAM for flash storage over the next several years. |
Servers Storage Hyperscale Infrastructure Flash | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIGenerative AI emerged as a transformational technology with ChatGPT demonstrating broad potential through Large Language Models. This ignited a technology arms race with spending on AI-related high-performance compute squeezing out traditional enterprise hardware spending. The deployment and uptake of AI-enabled applications should be compelling in 2024 with tangible solutions emerging across cybersecurity, IT services, and other industries. |
Generative AI Large Language Models ChatGPT High-performance compute AI applications |
Semiconductor CycleThe semiconductor industry led technology's recovery from its doldrums as inventories cleared and fresh demand emerged. NVIDIA's earnings revealed powerful secular growth drivers alongside cyclical recovery. Global semiconductor equipment demand came in better than expected at mid-$80 billion, with reshoring and China regulations creating pull-forward demand. |
Semiconductor recovery Inventory clearing Wafer fabrication CHIPS Act Memory chips | |
CloudCloud-native subscription software providers experienced workload optimization pressures as companies optimized existing tools rather than committing to future growth. Peak optimization likely occurred in Q1 2023 with stabilization and re-acceleration beginning by Q3 2023. Opportunities emerging in cybersecurity, cloud-native CRMs, and unstructured data analytics. |
Cloud-native Workload optimization Subscription software Net Dollar Retention SaaS |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| KLAC | KLA Corp. (+75 bps, 21.3%) – Increased capital spending on semiconductor production underscores sustained demand for wafer fabrication equipment. |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp. (+75 bps, +25.0%) – Increased capital spending on semiconductor production underscores sustained demand for wafer fabrication equipment. |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (+42 bps, +11.5%) – The semiconductor wafer manufacturer's advanced process node leadership, particularly in high-performance computing for AI, drove results. |
| MRVL | Marvel Technology Inc. (+22 bps, 21.1%) – Company is well-positioned across AI compute infrastructure, including custom chips, optical networking, and storage. |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp. (-177 bps, -23.3%) – Azure growth landed slightly below expectations due to increased internal compute allocation, and the broader software sell-off amplified the decline. |
| APP | AppLovin (-128 bps, -44.8%) – Caught in the 1Q26 software swoon, the company remains on track to deliver on the mobile game advertising and expansion into e-commerce advertisers. |
| META | Meta Platforms (-100 bps, -13.3%) – Meta pulled back based on AI spend due to technology and talent acquisitions, and a raised cap-ex budget, despite increased estimates for revenue growth. |
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