| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Barometer Capital Management delivered solid results in Q4 2025 across multiple fund strategies, driven by exposure to AI infrastructure, defense spending, precious metals, and copper themes. The quarter was characterized by policy uncertainty and commodity volatility, with frequent sector rotation as investors recalibrated expectations around Federal Reserve actions. AI infrastructure remained a key driver despite some December consolidation, with the market distinguishing between AI-enablers and more cyclical chip segments. Defense spending stayed elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty, supporting aerospace and defense holdings. Precious metals experienced significant volatility but created re-entry opportunities at lower levels. Copper surged on electrification and data center demand. The manager maintains a constructive but disciplined outlook entering 2026, with portfolios positioned just shy of fully invested to preserve tactical flexibility. Market breadth improvements and long-cycle themes are expected to provide durable support, though valuation sensitivity in some areas warrants careful positioning. The focus remains on maintaining leadership exposure while actively managing risk and capitalizing on dislocations.
Barometer Capital Management maintains exposure to durable long-cycle themes including AI infrastructure, defense spending, energy transition, and real assets while actively managing risk in an environment of policy uncertainty and sector rotation.
The manager remains constructive but disciplined entering 2026, with portfolios positioned just shy of being fully invested. They believe the path of least resistance remains higher given constructive market momentum and improving internal strength. Long-cycle themes that have driven recent performance are expected to remain influential, though some consolidation is expected in areas that have experienced significant gains.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AEM.TO, BBD-B.TO, BVN, CAT, CLS.TO, CPX.TO, FTT.TO, GOOGL, HWM, K.TO, LRCX, MS, NA.TO, POW.TO, RTX, RY.TO, SAN, SE, TTWO, TVE.TO | AI, Canada, Copper, defense, energy, financials, Precious Metals, semiconductors |
CAT LRCX TVE CN |
AI infrastructure remained a pillar of market leadership despite some consolidation in December. The market continued to distinguish between AI-enablers where demand remained strong and… |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AEM, AGI, AVGO, BMO CN, CLS, GOOG, HBM, LRCX, META, MS, NVDA, SAN | Copper, Energy Transition, gold, Precious Metals, uranium | BMO CN | The report highlights a synchronized rally in precious and industrial metals as persistent inflation, early Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty drove renewed demand for… |
| Sep 21 2025 | 2025 Q2 | GEV, HWM, NFLX, SAN, TMX | asset allocation, inflation, Market cycles, momentum, policy | - | The letter discusses navigating market cycles through tactical exposure to growth, momentum, and risk assets. Management highlights regime shifts driven by inflation trends, central bank… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AVGO, CRWD, ERJ, HWM, MDA, TMX | - | - | - |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, ATRL CN, AXON, BMO, CCO CN, FFH CN, HWM, JPM, MSI, NEE, NVDA, TECK/B CN, V | - | - | - |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AVGO, BWXT, CCO, CIBC, GE, HWM, NEE, NVDA, PGR, QCOM, TRP, VLO | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2024 Q2 | AVGO, COST, DIS, DOL, ETN, LLY, MSFT, MSI, NVDA, TRI CN, VLO | - | - | - |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AVGO, COST, DIS, DOL, EFN, L, LLY, MSFT, NVDA, TOY, TRI | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AVGO, CS CN, NVDA, ORCL | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Capital MarketsExchanges operate as essential high-margin toll roads for the economy with immense operating leverage. They benefit from trading volume flowing directly to profits with minimal extra cost and have natural inflation hedging through transaction values. |
Exchanges Nasdaq CBOE Trading Fees Market Data | |
CopperMarket shifted from deficit to surplus as Chinese demand stalled for first time in 25 years while supply expanded by 3 million tonnes since 2021. Exchange inventories reached 1.2 million tonnes, highest since 2003. Bearish outlook as China transitions from under-consuming to over-consuming copper. |
Base Metals China Inventories Surplus | |
Defense SpendingThe entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. This exposure focuses on companies that make armaments for nation state security and materially outperformed for the year. |
Defense Armaments Rheinmetall Palantir RTX | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities |
| 2025 Q2 |
Cycles |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | David Burrows | CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | Industrials | Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | backlog, Cyclicals, data centers, Industrials, infrastructure, Power | Login |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | David Burrows | LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, Cyclicals, Fabrication, infrastructure, semiconductors | Login |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Fund Letters | David Burrows | TVE CN | Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | capital allocation, energy, Free Cash Flow, Heavyoil, oil, Production | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | David Burrows | BMO CN | Bank of Montreal | Financials | Diversified Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | banking, Capital, financials, growth, Loans, wealth management | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AEM.TO | Agnico-Eagle Mines (4.8%) |
| BBD-B.TO | Industrials were the largest contributor, led by Bombardier (BBD/B.CA) |
| BVN | Materials exposure contributed positively, with Buenaventura Mining (BVN) and Kinross (K.CA) supported by resilient precious metals pricing and ongoing investor demand for real-asset hedges |
| CAT | Construction + Mining at low mid-cycle levels; dealer destock largely complete. Non-Residential + manufacturing starts inflecting (manufacturing starts 5X trailing 12-month average in June). Pricing Re-Accelerating, inventories bottoming → classic machinery trough signals. De-Globalization + OBBB tailwinds (bonus depreciation = ~700bps spend tailwind). Five Prior Cycles = ~150% avg alpha vs. S&P 500® Index from trough to peak. |
| CLS.TO | Non dividend paying technology names Shopify and Celestica had also meaningful contribution to the index returns for the year, detracting our relative outcome. |
| FTT.TO | Shares of global heavy equipment distributor Finning rose after reporting quarterly results that were well above expectations |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HWM | RTX and Howmet extended gains as commercial aerospace demand remained strong and defense spending stayed elevated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, supporting backlog strength and long-cycle earnings durability |
| K.TO | Materials exposure contributed positively, with Buenaventura Mining (BVN) and Kinross (K.CA) supported by resilient precious metals pricing and ongoing investor demand for real-asset hedges |
| LRCX | we believe it is well positioned to become an approved vendor for Lam Research (a supplier of wafer-fabrication equipment) as well |
| MS | During the quarter, the Fund invested in Morgan Stanley, a leading global investment bank and wealth management firm. Morgan Stanley has successfully diversified its business beyond cyclical banking and trading fees into more recurring wealth and investment management. These businesses collectively oversee $9.3 trillion in client assets that generate predictable, capital-light revenue that grows from inflows and market appreciation. |
| NA.TO | Financials added to returns, led by National Bank (NA.CA), supported by strong wealth and capital markets performance and continued execution following its strategic expansion |
| POW.TO | This is the holding company controlled by Montréal's Desmarais family. It holds many investments, but its largest asset is Great-West Lifeco, one of the largest insurance companies in Canada. Canadians may be more familiar with Great-West's local brand name, Canada Life. I have owned shares in this company for almost 20 years. In August 2021, I wrote a blog about conglomerates. In it, I mentioned Power Corp. and how its stock price had done very little for years, despite decent operating performance. When Greenfield started managing money in September 2021, we bought the stock for $42. The stock continued to languish for a few years, and we added to positions several times. Since August 2024, the stock moved up significantly to about $72. Despite the rise, it still trades for about 12 times earnings. Roughly 20% of our return from Power Corp. came from their dividends. We continue to own shares. I feel the company should continue to benefit from their customers in Canada, America, and Europe saving for retirement. |
| RTX | The top three contributors to this outperformance came from RTX (US Defense) |
| RY.TO | The Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank, with operations across North America and globally and a workforce of more than 100,000 employees. The bank has a leading position in Canadian retail and commercial banking and multiple levers for organic growth. We expect continued acceleration in core business drivers, execution on key growth initiatives, and a supportive housing backdrop to drive resilient earnings growth and sustain dividend growth. |
| SAN | We purchased Spain-based bank, Banco Santander, SA. We believe the company is well-positioned for meaningful efficiency gains and stronger profitability as it streamlines operations and reduces costs. Upcoming strategic updates are likely to set more ambitious return targets, which could shift market expectations. Easing monetary conditions in key markets like Brazil may further support margins and reduce credit risk. |
| SE | During the quarter, we initiated a new position in Sea Limited, a Southeast Asian consumer internet company with an integrated ecosystem combining e-commerce, digital payments, and entertainment. Sea has a diversified business model, with its Shopee e-commerce platform, a mobile-centric marketplace that provides integrated payments, logistics infrastructure, and seller services. |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. develops, publishes, and markets interactive software games. Their game franchise includes Grand Theft Auto, BioShock, Red Dead Redemption, Max Payne, NBA 2 K, LA Noire, Civilization, Midnight Club, and Borderlands. The company delivered solid fiscal second-quarter results, with 20% year-over-year growth in recurring consumer spending. Net bookings projections were therefore increased. Overshadowing earnings was an announcement that its subsidiary, Rockstar Games, will delay the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 from May to November 2026 to allow for a higher level of polish. GTA6 is the most anticipated game launch in the company's history. Shares of Take-Two fell sharply following that report and we added to our position on weakness. Take-Two's price subsequently rebounded and ended the quarter down on -1%, which far exceeded the benchmark sector average of -20%. |
| TVE.TO | It's rare for us to initiate a new position and have it make a significant run almost immediately, but fortunately, that's what happened with Tamarack Valley, and we are encouraged by their continued progress. |
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