| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 12.56% | -2.71% | -2.71% |
Bestinver's Q1 2026 letter addresses how geopolitical tensions in Iran have created market volatility despite strong underlying fundamentals. The manager views current energy crisis as temporary, noting that economies have become 70% more energy-efficient since the 1970s and private sector balance sheets remain strong. The fund used market volatility to increase exposure to high-quality businesses at attractive prices, including semiconductor leaders TSMC and Broadcom, UK bank Lloyds, and construction materials companies. The manager dismisses AI disruption fears as overblown, arguing that massive infrastructure investments are generating real returns. Portfolio companies are expected to grow normalized free cash flow by 90% over four years, with strong cash positions enabling aggressive share buybacks. Current valuations offer 45% discount to major indices despite superior growth and financial strength. The manager emphasizes that while uncertainty will persist, the portfolio is positioned for high returns as markets eventually recognize intrinsic value over short-term noise.
High-quality businesses trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value due to temporary geopolitical volatility and market focus on short-term noise rather than fundamental strength.
Manager expects uncertainty to persist over coming months but believes medium to long-term foundations are in place for intrinsic value to flourish. Portfolio positioned for high returns in years to come with 90% growth expected in normalized free cash flow over next four years.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AVGO, LLOY.L, META, PHIA.AS, TSM | AI, Banking, energy, Europe, geopolitics, infrastructure, semiconductors, value | - | Bestinver used Q1 geopolitical volatility to buy quality businesses at discounts. Despite Iran tensions, manager sees temporary energy shock against backdrop of improved economic resilience. Strong conviction in semiconductors, European banks, and infrastructure plays. Portfolio companies expected to grow cash flow 90% over four years while trading at 45% discount to indices. Positioned for strong returns when fundamentals reassert over noise. |
| Sep 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | META | AI, Data centers, infrastructure, Investment, returns, technology, value |
AMRZ HEI GR |
AI infrastructure spending faces consensus skepticism despite massive capital deployment by informed technology leaders. Meta's $40+ billion incremental data center investment requires 4% revenue growth acceleration for adequate returns through improved ad targeting. Historical technology adoption suggests current skepticism may mirror early automobile doubts, with execution capability determining investment success over external validation. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | META | AI, Data centers, Investment, returns, technology, value | META | Massive AI infrastructure spending could unlock trillions or prove wasteful. Meta demonstrates clear monetization path through improved ad targeting, needing 4% revenue growth for double-digit returns. Success depends on execution capabilities rather than external factors. Investment approach focuses on cash generation and returns on capital as key metrics for evaluating AI infrastructure investments. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 1216.TW, 1299.HK, 2330.TW, 300012.SZ, 300124.SZ, 3690.HK, 9999.HK, BBCA.JK, BCH, FMX, HDB, NTCO3.SA, RADL3.SA, UL | AI, China, emerging markets, Quality, semiconductors, valuation | - | Aikya's emerging markets fund underperformed in October despite positive returns, missing semiconductor momentum while maintaining quality and valuation discipline. The defensive portfolio outperformed in China corrections and benefited from Indonesian exposure, but faced headwinds from Latin American consumer slowdowns. Management prioritizes long-term absolute returns over short-term momentum chasing. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
GeopoliticsManager extensively discusses geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Middle East, viewing them as part of a broader US-China rivalry for global hegemony. Emphasizes the strategic importance of energy flows and trade routes through the region. |
Iran Middle East Energy Trade Routes China |
Energy TransitionDiscusses how decarbonization has made the economy less vulnerable to energy shocks than in the past 50 years. Notes that energy intensity per unit of GDP has fallen 70% since the 1970s and household energy expenditure has declined significantly. |
Decarbonization Energy Efficiency Renewables Electrification | |
AIManager addresses market fears about AI disruption but argues these concerns are overblown. Discusses how companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure and supply chains, viewing current AI-related market volatility as creating opportunities. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Investment Disruption | |
SemiconductorsDescribes semiconductors as 'the real raw materials of the 21st century' and maintains strong conviction in the sector despite market volatility. Focuses on companies with highest barriers to entry like TSMC and Broadcom. |
TSMC Broadcom Technology Infrastructure | |
BankingPositive on European banks, particularly UK banks like Lloyds, due to improved margins from higher interest rates and strong capital generation. Views current valuations as attractive with sustainable returns through dividends and buybacks. |
Interest Rates Margins Dividends Buybacks | |
ConstructionBelieves in a structural cycle of infrastructure investment in both US and Europe driven by aging networks and housing market imbalances. Maintains exposure to leaders like Saint-Gobain and Amrize. |
Infrastructure Housing Saint-Gobain Amrize | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIMassive investments in AI infrastructure continue despite skepticism about returns. The manager analyzes whether hundreds of billions in AI spending will generate adequate returns, comparing it to historical technology adoption cycles. Early corporate adoption remains limited, but infrastructure investments by major players suggest confidence in long-term productivity gains. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Productivity Technology Investment |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIMassive investments in AI infrastructure continue with hundreds of billions being deployed in data centers and compute power. While skepticism exists about returns, companies like Meta are demonstrating measurable paths to profitability through improved ad targeting. The technology resembles early automobiles - powerful but requiring refinement before widespread adoption. |
Data Centers Infrastructure Productivity Returns Investment |
Data CentersCompanies are investing heavily in data center infrastructure to support AI capabilities. Meta increased annual capex from $20-30 billion to over $70 billion starting in 2025, with most additional spending directed toward data center development. These investments need to generate 4% additional revenue growth annually to achieve double-digit returns. |
Capex Infrastructure Returns Investment Growth | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIThe market's continued excitement for AI potential led semiconductor stocks materially higher, with Taiwanese and Korean markets at record highs. While Aikya believes in AI's long-term potential, they maintain quality and valuation discipline rather than chasing momentum. |
Semiconductors Taiwan Korea Technology |
QualityAikya's investment approach relies on quality as a key pillar, investing exclusively in high-quality companies. The strategy's defensiveness helped outperform the broader China market during corrections, with quality names like Centre Testing registering positive returns. |
Defensiveness Valuation Investment Discipline |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | BESTINVER | META | Meta Platforms Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Ad Targeting, AI infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence, capital expenditure, cash flow generation, data centers, digital advertising, Platform Scale, revenue per user, social media | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tomás Pintó | AMRZ | Amrize, Inc. | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | aggregates, Cement, consolidation, infrastructure, Pricing, spinoff | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Tomás Pintó | HEI GR | Heidelberg Materials AG | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | Xetra | cashflow, Cement, consolidation, Decarbonisation, Emissions, Pricing | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms and Rolls-Royce have been with us for over five years. Having weathered various periods of volatility, they have demonstrated the strength of their fundamentals, delivering very significant returns for our portfolio. In Meta's case, the company has established itself as the undisputed leader in the age of AI, being one of the few players capable of directly monetising this technology. The company is optimising its algorithms for its more than 3.2 billion daily users and boosting returns for advertisers, driving its revenue growth at rates of around 30% per year. Despite its substantial investment in infrastructure, its return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds 40%. We estimate that its current valuation amounts to just 10 times earnings for 2028, a multiple that is difficult to justify for an asset of this quality and with such a strong competitive edge. |
| LLOY.L | This trend has led us to increase our exposure to Lloyds during the quarter. It is one of the institutions with the lowest risk profile and highest returns in Europe. At current prices, it is trading at 9x estimated earnings for 2026 (below 8x for 2027) and has a price-to-tangible-book-value (P/TBV) ratio of 1.5x, and a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of around 18%. This valuation comes with a 10% return to shareholders this year, comprising dividends and share buybacks, and cumulative payouts amounting to nearly 40% of its market capitalisation over the next three years. |
| TSM | TSMC has established itself as the strategic 'strait' through which the digital economy transits. While the market is distracted by the sector's supposed cyclical nature, the company boasts an exceptional competitive advantage, being the only entity capable of large-scale manufacturing of 2- and 3-nanometre nodes, critical enablers of advanced computing. Its competitive edge has aligned the incentives of the sector's key players, turning them into committed partners in its technology roadmap. From a valuation perspective, TSMC operates more as a critical infrastructure provider than as a component manufacturer. It has unrivalled pricing power in the industry, enabling it to undertake massive investments without eroding its profitability. At close of quarter, the company is now trading at just over 11x its projected earnings two years from now, a multiple that overlooks its dominant market position and the structural strength of its business. |
| AVGO | Broadcom is positioning itself as a key player in data centre architecture by offering a genuine alternative to Nvidia's dominance. Its leadership in custom computing (ASICs) enables companies such as Google and Meta to design their own chips —ensuring their technological sovereignty— while its networking strength guarantees the connectivity of these systems on a large scale. This dual approach allows the company to consistently capture revenue from cloud infrastructure spending, turning AI growth into a predictable and expanding source of cash flow. Despite this, Broadcom is trading at 18.5x current-year earnings, which, based on our estimates for 2028, would be reduced to just 7x. This valuation not only overlooks its record order book of 160 billion dollars, but also treats critical software and semiconductor infrastructure as if it were a cyclical business with no visibility. |
| PHIA.AS | This quarter, we will be reviewing the investment case for Philips, following the company's recent presentation of its 2026-2028 strategic plan. Following years of restructuring and balance sheet cleansing, the company is entering a stabilisation phase during which the market has yet to recognise its cash-generating capacity. In our view, the roadmap presented by the company's management is realistic and prudent: the target of achieving margins of 15% by 2028 strikes us as conservative, given the programme to cut costs by 1.5 billion euros (equivalent to 7% of sales) and the organic shift in the product mix towards higher-margin segments, such as monitoring and hospital technology. |
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