| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The Bianco Research Fixed-Income Total Return Index outperformed the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index by 98 basis points in the first half of 2024, driven by a duration underweight through April, a 20% position in short-duration TIPS, and an MBS underweight through May. The manager has since moved to a broadly neutral positioning with only a 5% USD bullish conviction position. The letter focuses on the critical divergence between the Fed's estimate of the neutral interest rate at 2.75% and the market's estimate at 3.70%. This gap explains why Fed officials like Austan Goolsbee advocate for earlier rate cuts while the market remains sanguine about current policy restrictiveness. The Fed views the current real fed funds rate of 2.93% as punishing compared to the post-financial crisis average of negative 1.08%, while the market compares it to the pre-crisis average of positive 2.55%. The manager describes the bond market as being at an inflection point, waiting for clarity on whether the Fed will cut rates and whether such cuts would constitute a policy mistake. Clarity is expected before summer's end.
The bond market is at a critical inflection point driven by a fundamental divergence between the Fed's view that policy is highly restrictive (neutral rate at 2.75%) and the market's view that policy is far less restrictive (neutral rate at 3.70%), creating uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of rate cuts and the risk of a policy mistake if the Fed cuts too early.
The manager expects clarity on the Fed's rate cut decision before the end of the summer. The bond market is described as being at an inflection point, like the top of a roller coaster, where the direction is uncertain. The manager is holding neutral positions while waiting to see whether the Fed will cut rates and whether such cuts would constitute a policy mistake.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | duration, Fed policy, fixed income, inflation, Neutral Rate, rates | - | The bond market stands at an inflection point as the Fed's neutral rate estimate of 2.75% diverges sharply from the market's 3.70% estimate. This gap creates opposing views on policy restrictiveness and the urgency of rate cuts. The manager holds a neutral portfolio with only a 5% USD conviction position, waiting for clarity on the Fed's path before summer ends to determine the next directional move. |
| Mar 26 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | credit, duration, fixed income, Geopolitical, inflation, Iran, oil | - | Bianco Research moved to neutral duration as Iran conflict drives oil near $100 and 10-year yields above 4.25%. Maintaining underweight credit while positioning conviction trades in TIPS, high-yield, and EM debt for snapback recovery when Strait of Hormuz reopens and conflict resolves. |
| Jul 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 000333.SZ, 0005.HK, 002714.SZ, 0700.HK, 0981.HK, 1024.HK, 2899.HK, 300274.SZ, 300750.SZ, 600519.SS, BABA, BIDU | AI, China, growth, semiconductors, technology, valuation | - | Guinness China A Share Fund returned 23.6% in Q3 but underperformed due to avoiding overvalued AI stocks that drove market gains. The manager views these AI names as significantly overvalued with uncertain cash flows, similar to China's 2021 COVID rally peak. Fund maintains focus on structural growth themes while trading below historical valuations. |
| Jan 6 2025 | 2024 Q4 | BRK-B, JPM, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR | AI, Fed policy, growth, healthcare, large cap, tariffs, technology, Valuations | - | Oak Ridge's growth strategy capitalizes on AI transformation while managing elevated market risks. Technology holdings rebounded strongly from Q1 weakness, driven by solid AI fundamentals at Nvidia and Microsoft. Healthcare positions faced profit-taking despite strong GLP-1 and biotech pipelines. The firm maintains selective positioning ahead of expected Fed rate cuts and continued AI innovation opportunities. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BABA, BTI, CHTR, CRDA.L, DGE.L, FAST, HILS.L, MCO, MSFT, ORCL, PM, POOL, REL.L, SCHW, SGE.L, SPX.L, TMO, TXN, WSO | Diversified, global, long-term, Private Capital, Public Companies, value creation | - | Caledonia's diversified investment approach delivered 4.4% NAV returns driven by AI-beneficiary holdings and successful Private Capital value creation. The permanent balance sheet enabled opportunistic deployment during market volatility while the pending Stonehage Fleming sale at 3.2x cost exemplifies patient capital execution. Strong liquidity and continued share buybacks position the firm well for long-term value creation despite macro uncertainties. |
| Jul 8 2024 | 2024 Q2 | MCD, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Fed policy, growth, healthcare, large cap, tariffs, technology, Valuations | - | Oak Ridge maintains quality growth focus with 60% Technology/Communication Services exposure despite benchmark underperformance from concentrated leadership. Expects 2-2.5% 2025 growth driven by AI investments while navigating Trump policy uncertainties including tariff risks. Healthcare overweight continues despite GLP-1 headwinds. Fed hawkishness keeps rates above 4% until cooling. High conviction positioning for increased volatility ahead. |
| Mar 27 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | growth, healthcare, large cap, Quality, rates, semiconductors, technology | - | Oak Ridge's quality growth strategy navigated Q3's rotation from mega-caps to small-caps with positive returns despite benchmark headwinds. Strong semiconductor and cybersecurity selection offset healthcare sector weakness and limited rate-sensitive exposure. Managers maintain high conviction positioning for expected volatility ahead, emphasizing financially strong companies capable of thriving through geopolitical and political uncertainties while selectively adjusting holdings based on market opportunities. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
RatesThe letter focuses extensively on the neutral interest rate debate between the Fed and the market. The Fed estimates neutral at 2.75%, requiring 10.5 rate cuts, while the market estimates neutral at 3.70%, requiring only 6.6 cuts. The manager holds a neutral duration position, waiting for clarity on whether the Fed will cut rates and by how much. |
Fed Neutral Rate Rate Cuts Duration Real Rates |
InflationThe letter discusses inflation primarily through the lens of real interest rates, noting that core PCE has declined to around 2.5% from over 4%. The current real fed funds rate of 2.93% is compared to historical periods to assess whether policy is restrictive. The manager views inflation as moderating but does not take a strong directional view on future inflation trends. |
Core PCE Real Rates Inflation Fed Policy | |
DollarThe manager holds a 5% out-of-index position in the US dollar, described as their only conviction position. This is the sole active bet in an otherwise neutral portfolio. No further commentary is provided on the rationale or outlook for the dollar position. |
USD Currency Conviction | |
| 2026 Q1 |
IranThe ongoing Iran conflict has created large market moves requiring portfolio adjustments. The committee's focus remains on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker transit normalization signaling the worst has passed. |
Geopolitical Oil Conflict Strait of Hormuz |
OilIran conflict drives oil prices near $100 barrel, creating inflation expectations. Higher crude prices translate to retail gas price increases, impacting broader economic outlook. |
Crude Energy Inflation Commodities | |
InflationCommittee maintains view of sticky inflation well above Fed's 3% target. Higher oil prices from Iran conflict expected to drive additional inflation through retail gas prices. |
Fed Target Sticky Economic | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIChina's onshore AI stocks have driven significant market gains but are viewed as significantly overvalued with 70-90% of valuations based on uncertain future cash flows. The manager avoids these names, comparing current valuations to the peak of China's COVID rally in early 2021. |
Artificial Intelligence Semiconductors Technology Valuation Growth |
ChinaThe fund focuses exclusively on China A shares with structural growth themes built on demographic changes, production advances, and technology applications. Weak macro data contrasts with surging equity markets, particularly in onshore segments. |
A Shares Onshore Structural Growth Demographics Technology | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor and technology hardware companies feature prominently in both holdings and market commentary. The fund benefits from positions in companies like Shengyi Technology while avoiding overvalued AI chip names. |
Chips Hardware Technology Manufacturing Electronics | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AITechnology has been at the forefront with great excitement over transformative effects of AI, evidenced by sold-out Nvidia Blackwell chips and strong Microsoft Azure results. AI will likely continue to create transformative new opportunities at an unprecedented pace. The market concentration in AI-dominant fields is notable with all but Berkshire and J.P. Morgan among the top 10 S&P 500 constituents being in AI-dominant fields. |
Artificial Intelligence Cloud Semiconductors Data Centers Technology |
GLP1Healthcare holdings included long-term positions in a leading pharmaceutical company that had soared due to their leading GLP-1 drug and robust pipeline. The drug company is believed to be poised for future upside revisions due to further advances in weight loss and new drugs for Alzheimer's and cancer. A health and wellness company spiked 67% on their involvement in adding GLP-1 drugs to their lineup. |
Weight Loss Pharmaceuticals Diabetes Biotechnology | |
Trade PolicyThe quarter began with a panic selloff in reaction to triple-digit tariffs threatened on President Trump's Liberation Day. Fed concerns over tariff effects on inflation and interest rates seemed to ease the rhetoric. Companies have reduced capital investment and labor hiring while trimming estimates for 2025, with surveys suggesting most plan to pass increased costs to customers. |
Tariffs Protectionism Inflation Policy | |
RatesThe market needs the Fed to change its mildly restrictive rate policy to sustain valuations and maintain strong stock performance. While it seemed prudent for the Fed to wait for tariff resolution, economic and inflation data have softened sentiment, with current expectations for three rate cuts this year beginning in September. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIOracle, Microsoft, and Alibaba Group were strong performers driven by their cloud businesses and AI-related services. Oracle's share price rose sharply following a series of AI-related announcements which led to a significant re-rating of the shares. The manager took advantage of this performance to realize gains from Oracle. |
Cloud Software Technology Growth |
Private CapitalThe Private Capital pool delivered strong performance with a 7.7% return, driven primarily by the agreed sale of Stonehage Fleming and good operational performance from AIR-serv. The strategy focuses on cash generative businesses with strong growth potential, typically investing £50m to £150m using low levels of leverage. |
Buyouts Growth Value Creation Direct Investment | |
DividendsThe Income portfolio aims to deliver an initial yield on invested cost of 3.5% with the overall dividend from these holdings growing ahead of inflation over the longer term. The board declared an interim dividend of 3.68p per share, reflecting the change in dividend payment profile to 50% of the prior year's total annual dividend. |
Income Yield Progressive Distribution | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI represents considerably greater transformative innovation than previous technologies. The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2-2.5% in 2025, fueled heavily by investments in AI and security. Jobs data will be pressured by AI over time. |
Innovation Growth Investment Technology Transformation |
ValuationsWhile valuations are expensive at 23.5X forward earnings, this is far from Internet Bubble levels when multiples were triple digits. The majority of market leaders are expected to enjoy nice earnings growth and have financial resources to capitalize on new opportunities. |
Multiples Earnings Expensive Historical Metrics | |
Trade PolicyTrump's proposed tariffs are at the forefront of policy concerns. There is little discussion about retaliatory reactions from China and other targeted countries. The ultimate resolutions will likely add inflationary pressure and continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar. |
Tariffs China Inflation Dollar Retaliation | |
RatesThe Fed has intimated it will be more hawkish and further rate cuts will be data dependent. This suggests rates on Treasury debt will remain comfortably above 4% until there is a cooling of the economy. Mortgage rates appear steady between 6%-7%. |
Fed Treasury Mortgage Hawkish Data | |
| 2024 Q1 |
GLP1Healthcare sector took a break during the quarter, particularly the red hot GLP-1 weight loss area. Oak Ridge remains heavily overweight in the leader of the transformative weight loss field despite trimming their largest active bet in late June. |
Weight Loss Healthcare Biotech Pharmaceuticals Obesity |
AITechnology changes were made late in the quarter to be better positioned not only for direct AI plays, but other beneficiaries of a changing landscape. The firm is highly confident in their Tech holdings despite previous challenges in the sector. |
Technology Artificial Intelligence Software Innovation Digital Transformation | |
SemiconductorsStrong stock selection in semiconductors boosted returns in the All-Cap portfolio. The firm added measurable value through stock selection in semiconductor companies outside the big name components. |
Chips Technology Hardware Electronics Computing | |
CybersecurityStrong stock selection in cyber security positions contributed to performance, though the portfolio suffered a severe loss from selling a leading cyber security provider that caused a major software shutdown throughout the U.S. |
Security Software Technology Data Protection Enterprise |
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