| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The Guinness China A Share Fund returned 23.6% in Q3 2025, underperforming its benchmark by 1.4 percentage points. The fund's performance was driven by stock selection in Communication Services and an overweight to Industrials, while being hurt by avoiding expensive AI names that drove 46% of market gains. The manager views many onshore AI stocks as significantly overvalued, with 70-90% of valuations based on uncertain future cash flows, drawing parallels to China's COVID rally peak in 2021. Despite weak macroeconomic data, China's equity markets surged led by these AI names. The fund sold Shenzhen H&T Intelligent after strong gains as it no longer offered attractive returns. While the MSCI China A Onshore Index trades above long-term averages at 16.3x forward P/E, the fund trades at 18.0x, below its historical average of 19.6x. The manager maintains conviction in structural growth themes while avoiding speculative AI valuations.
The fund invests in quality, profitable companies exposed to structural growth themes in China A shares built on demographic changes, production advances, and technology applications, while avoiding overvalued AI stocks that rely on uncertain future cash flows.
The manager believes many AI stocks driving recent gains are significantly overvalued and unlikely to yield positive returns over the medium term. While the broader market trades above long-term averages, the fund remains attractively valued compared to its own historical range. The manager expects potential sharp valuation de-ratings if growth disappoints, drawing parallels to China's COVID rally peak in early 2021.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 000333.SZ, 0005.HK, 002714.SZ, 0700.HK, 0981.HK, 1024.HK, 2899.HK, 300274.SZ, 300750.SZ, 600519.SS, BABA, BIDU | AI, China, growth, semiconductors, technology, valuation | - | China's onshore AI stocks have driven significant market gains but are viewed as significantly overvalued with 70-90% of valuations based on uncertain future cash flows. The manager avoids these names, comparing current valuations to the peak of China's COVID rally in early 2021. |
| Jan 6 2025 | 2024 Q4 | BRK-B, JPM, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR | AI, Fed policy, growth, healthcare, large cap, tariffs, technology, Valuations | - | Technology has been at the forefront with great excitement over transformative effects of AI, evidenced by sold-out Nvidia Blackwell chips and strong Microsoft Azure results. AI will likely continue to create transformative new opportunities at an unprecedented pace. The market concentration in AI-dominant fields is notable with all but Berkshire and J.P. Morgan among the top 10 S&P 500 constituents being in AI-dominant fields. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BABA, BTI, CHTR, CRDA.L, DGE.L, FAST, HILS.L, MCO, MSFT, ORCL, PM, POOL, REL.L, SCHW, SGE.L, SPX.L, TMO, TXN, WSO | Diversified, global, long-term, Private Capital, Public Companies, value creation | - | Oracle, Microsoft, and Alibaba Group were strong performers driven by their cloud businesses and AI-related services. Oracle's share price rose sharply following a series of AI-related announcements which led to a significant re-rating of the shares. The manager took advantage of this performance to realize gains from Oracle. |
| Jul 8 2024 | 2024 Q2 | MCD, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Fed policy, growth, healthcare, large cap, tariffs, technology, Valuations | - | AI represents considerably greater transformative innovation than previous technologies. The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2-2.5% in 2025, fueled heavily by investments in AI and security. Jobs data will be pressured by AI over time. |
| Mar 27 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | growth, healthcare, large cap, Quality, rates, semiconductors, technology | - | Healthcare sector took a break during the quarter, particularly the red hot GLP-1 weight loss area. Oak Ridge remains heavily overweight in the leader of the transformative weight loss field despite trimming their largest active bet in late June. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
ChinaChina's economic rebalancing appears to be moving forward. Market liquidity, anti-involution and a measured consumer policy are likely to drive a sustained market performance in 4Q. Fiscal support and ongoing reforms in China is supportive of a stronger currency. |
Growth Policy Currency | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
GLP1Eli Lilly represents the fund's exposure to the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatment market, which continues to show exceptional growth. Mounjaro and Zepbound sales more than doubled year-over-year, with demand continuing to outpace supply. The fund sees this as a multi-decade growth opportunity with expanding indications and sustained competitive advantages. |
Obesity Diabetes Pharmaceuticals Growth Innovation | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DividendsJapanese companies paid record dividends of ¥18 trillion for fiscal year ending March 2025, a 13.8% year-over-year increase. Many major firms have adopted progressive dividend policies guaranteeing dividends will never be cut, only maintained or increased. |
Progressive Dividend Record Payouts Shareholder Returns Yield Growth | |
Private Capital |
||
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
ValuationsEquity valuations remain elevated with the S&P 500 trading near 23x forward earnings, well above its long-term average of 15.6x. High valuations may increase market sensitivity to earnings disappointments and tend to constrain longer-term returns, reinforcing the importance of selectivity. |
Multiples Premium Earnings Risk Selectivity | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CybersecurityCybersecurity companies are using AI in core algorithms to better identify anomalies and block malicious traffic. CrowdStrike is seeing reacceleration in growth with new Falcon Flex offering, while Netskope continues gaining SASE market share with strong competitive win rates. |
Security AI Detection Enterprise Cloud Protection | |
GLP1Eli Lilly represents the fund's exposure to the GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatment market, which continues to show exceptional growth. Mounjaro and Zepbound sales more than doubled year-over-year, with demand continuing to outpace supply. The fund sees this as a multi-decade growth opportunity with expanding indications and sustained competitive advantages. |
Obesity Diabetes Pharmaceuticals Growth Innovation | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 0700.HK | Shinya also visited Shenzhen, where Star Magnolia Capital organized an educational visit for our families to Tencent's headquarters, alongside meetings with several promising early-stage companies. |
| 1024.HK | our Chinese e-commerce and internet stalwarts – Kuaishou saw their share prices soften as the market focused on more direct AI beneficiaries |
| 300750.SZ | CATL alone commands 38% market share in global lithium-ion battery production |
| 600519.SS | In the Consumer Staples sector, Kweichou Moutai and Inner Mongolia Yili were the strongest contributors to returns. |
| BABA | Alibaba was a detractor during the quarter after the company reported mixed fiscal Q2 results. While cloud revenue growth accelerated and margins remained stable, the core commerce business struggled with slowing growth and significant profit pressure, particularly in the quick commerce segment where heavy investment and intense competition led to a sharp decline in profitability. |
| BIDU | Baidu up 47% |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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