Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 0.1% | -12.6% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 0.1% | -12.6% |
Black Bear Value Fund returned -12.6% in 2025 versus +17.9% for the S&P 500, completing two sub-par performance years. The manager remains confident in the portfolio positioning, noting that multiple holdings have remote permanent capital impairment risk with 50-100% upside potential. The fund focuses on companies nearing the end of capital investment cycles in structurally attractive sectors including housing, metallurgical coal, energy royalties, and regional bank turnarounds. Key holdings include Builders FirstSource benefiting from housing shortages, Tidewater positioned for offshore energy recovery, and Warrior Met Coal approaching major free cash flow inflection. The portfolio maintains 24% foreign exposure and significant short positions targeting AI speculation, private credit excess, and overvalued banks. Short positions began showing valuation reality in late 2025. The manager expects major re-rating of holdings as investment cycles conclude in 2026-2027, describing the portfolio as a coiled spring ready to snap upward when market sentiment shifts toward fundamentally sound, attractively valued businesses.
Black Bear Value Partners focuses on undervalued companies nearing the end of capital investment cycles, particularly in housing, energy, and metallurgical coal sectors, while shorting overvalued businesses with weak fundamentals in AI, private credit, and banking sectors.
As we enter 2026, we have multiple names in the portfolio where a permanent capital impairment is remote and the path to being up 50-100% is reasonable. Our portfolio is a coiled spring and when it snaps up, the manager anticipates making up ground quickly as has happened in the past.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, PSK.TO, TDW | banks, Coal, energy, Housing, Shorts, turnaround, value |
BLDR TDW PSK CN FLG HCC LXS GR |
Structural shortage of housing in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing… |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, LXS GR, TDW | commodities, cyclicals, energy, Housing, Value Investing |
BLDR FLG LXS TDW HCC |
The letter underscores contrarian value investing in out-of-favor sectors and companies. Cyclical pessimism and short-term earnings pressure are seen as temporary rather than structural. Recovery… |
| Jul 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABG, AN, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | catalysts, free cash flow, mispricing, Shorts, value | - | The commentary emphasizes deep value investing supported by identifiable catalysts over a multi-year horizon. Many holdings are priced for pessimistic scenarios despite strong asset bases… |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABG, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ABG, ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, FLG, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ARCH, BLDR, HCC, LXU, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Apr 23 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ALS CN, AN, BLDR, CEIX, PAG | - | - | - |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | ABG, ALS CN, BLDR, CEIX, POU CN, SV4 GR | - | - | - |
| Jun 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | ABG, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Oct 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ABG, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU CN | - | - | - |
| Nov 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ABG, BLDR, BRK/A, CVEO, POU CN, SIVBQ | - | - | - |
| Nov 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Sep 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Aug 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
EnergyEnergy plays a critical role in AI infrastructure economics, with data centers becoming major electricity consumers. Rising power costs compress margins while grid constraints and regulatory scrutiny influence deployment timelines. The manager emphasizes that unlike software-driven growth, AI compute cannot be scaled independently of physical energy reality. |
Data Centers Grid Power Infrastructure Utilities | |
HousingStructural shortage of housing in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales as they can buy-down mortgages to lower rates. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Mortgage Construction | |
Metallurgical CoalSignificant underinvestment in metallurgical coal which is a needed input for worldwide steel consumption, particularly in Asia and India where high-grade met coal resources are limited. Minimal worldwide met coal resource development over the last 10 years could lead to tight supply when steel production improves. |
Coal Steel Mining Commodities | |
Private CreditThe space has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into the AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Credit Lending Risk | |
Regional BanksFlagstar has exceptional management and board that are ahead of the game in turning their business around after balance sheet issues. Trading at significant discount to conservatively marked balance sheet compared to similar banks. |
Banks Turnaround Value | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Cyclicals |
|
EnergyBHE operates regulated utilities serving 5.4 million customers and natural gas pipelines. The business faces significant investment needs driven by AI computing demand and wildfire risk mitigation, particularly in the Western U.S. |
Regulated Utilities Natural Gas Renewable Energy Grid Infrastructure | |
HousingStructural shortage of housing in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales as they can buy-down mortgages to lower rates. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Mortgage Construction | |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS GR | Lanxess | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bear | Xetra | asset monetization, Balance Sheet Risk, debt burden, execution risk, specialty chemicals | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building materials, buybacks, cash flow, construction, growth, Housing, leverage | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial Corp. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | banking, Credit, management, recovery, regional banks, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS | Lanxess AG | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | - | Chemicals, deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Germany, restructuring, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater Inc. | Energy | Oilfield Services | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, energy, leverage, Marine, Offshore, Oilfield, Supply, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal Inc. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Capital-projects, cash flow, coal, energy, Mining, Steel, turnaround | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, Margins, Value Added | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Capital Scarcity, Free Cash Flow, Offshore energy, Supply Contraction | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | PSK CN | PrairieSky Royalty | Energy | Oil & Gas Royalties | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital-light, Energy Scarcity, inflation hedge, mineral rights, royalties | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Bank Turnaround, Management Quality, recapitalization, tangible book, valuation gap | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Materials | Metallurgical Coal | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, metallurgical coal, Steel Demand, Supply Constraint | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BLDR | BLDR declined 28% in 2025 amidst weakness in the housing market and as new home starts pressured sentiment. Fundamentally, the Company performed well despite these headwinds and should generate a significant amount of free cash flow in 2025 ($800MM-$1BB). This translates to a trailing yield of 7-9%. If we owned this business privately, we would be pleased to collect a 7-9% yield in a weak year with the promise of significantly higher cashflows when housing starts pickup. BLDR is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials with a focus on residential construction. Our long-term thesis remains intact as there is a structural shortage of housing in the USA. The company has sustained higher gross margins as they have gained scale. I estimate normalized free-cash-flow per share to be $9-$14 per year implying a free-cash-flow yield of 9-14% with no growth priced in. |
| FLG | Flagstar Financial is the former New York Community Bank (a mashup of Flagstar Bank, New York Community Bank and assets from Signature Bank). Like our past SHORT investments in Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic, FLG had a hole in their balance sheet (from soured multifamily and office real estate vs. long-duration securities). That is where the similarities end. FLG raised over $1BB in additional capital, led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. They revamped the management team and brought in a superstar CEO in Joseph Otting who successfully turned around OneWest Bank post GFC. The turnaround is going well, and they recently reported their first profitable quarter since the new management team took over. The valuation is extremely compelling. At year-end the bank was trading at ~67% of a conservatively marked balance sheet. At these prices the downside seems minimal and could see this business up 45-120% over the next 1-3 years as it is more appropriately valued. |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal is a leading metallurgical coal producer (coal used to steel production). There has been minimal worldwide met coal resource development over the last 10 years which could lead to tight supply (higher pricing) when steel production improves. Currently the bulk of HCC's FCF is being invested in a capital project that will be largely concluded in 2025 and is ahead of schedule. Once the business winds down their investment period they will gush cash. HCC's existing mines should generate $100-$350MM in annual free cash flow. Blue Creek development is wrapping up by the beginning of 2026 and at mid-cycle should generate $200-$500MM in additional free cash flow. The combined assets should generate $300MM-$850MM in free cashflow with non-heroic pricing and volume assumptions. This equates to ~$6-$16 in annual per share cash generation vs. a price of ~$88 or a 7-18% unlevered annual free-cashflow yield. 2026 should be a sea-change in their free-cash-flow generation. |
| PSK.TO | We have owned PrairieSky Royalty over the last 5+ years. It became a top 5 position for us in the 4th Quarter. PSK.TO is a pure-play oil and natural gas royalty company that owns one of Canada's largest portfolios of subsurface mineral rights and royalty interests across Western Canada. Importantly, the company does not operate or drill oil and gas wells itself; instead, it leases its land to third-party energy producers and collects high-margin royalty revenues based on production without incurring operational costs or capital expenditures. Likely due to both being an energy company and being in Canada we can own the business at a 5-8% yield assuming stable production and steady oil energy prices. Additionally, the business is run by an exceptional CEO and Board that understands capital allocation at a deep level. |
| TDW | Tidewater is a marine services firm that operates one of the world's largest fleets of offshore support vessels (OSV's). They serve the energy industry by transporting crew and supplies, towing and anchoring drillships and supporting offshore construction projects. The long-term outlook for international and offshore markets is strong while the near-term is a little cloudier. What's striking about this industry is the lack of investment in the OSV fleet. Since the GFC, global shipyard capacity has shrunk by nearly 60%. Over the next decade, as fleets age, the global OSV market is expected to shrink by ~40%. We do not have to bank on that as they are currently generating $300MM+ in FCF vs. a $2.5bb market cap or a 12% yield. In a more normal environment, I'd expect them to generate 500mm-1bb which gets to ~20-40% yields. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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