Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 30th June 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6% | -10.4% | 1.5% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6% | -10.4% | 1.5% |
Black Bear Value Fund returned -10.4% in Q2 2026 and +1.5% year-to-date, underperforming benchmarks amid extraordinary market optimism concentrated in the largest securities. The manager remains confident in the long-term opportunity despite deep dissatisfaction with recent results, believing the gap between performance and underlying portfolio value has become unusually wide. The portfolio remains heavily invested across energy and commodities—natural gas, oil, thermal coal, and metallurgical coal—where years of capital underinvestment have created structurally tight markets vulnerable to supply disruptions or demand increases. Holdings also include businesses positioned to benefit from structural housing shortages and select financial services turnarounds. Many portfolio companies are emerging from capital investment cycles into cash-generative phases, generating substantial free cash flow, paying dividends, and repurchasing shares. The short book, maintained at 43% equity exposure with increased high-yield credit shorts, targets businesses with excessive leverage, unrealistic expectations, or deteriorating competitive positions, including private credit lenders, AI wannabes, troubled banks, buy-now-pay-later lenders, and legacy data centers. The manager believes defensive positioning remains prudent and expects patience to be rewarded.
Manager owns quality businesses at sensible prices with very little future success embedded in their valuations, while shorting businesses with excessive leverage, unrealistic expectations, or misleading narratives, creating an asymmetric risk-reward profile.
Manager remains confident in the long-term opportunity despite deep dissatisfaction with recent results. The gap between performance and underlying portfolio value has become unusually wide. Defensive positioning remains prudent because the portfolio owns quality businesses at sensible prices with very little future success embedded in valuations. Many portfolio companies are emerging from capital investment cycles and entering the most cash-generative stages of their development, with some beginning to rerate but still in early innings. Manager believes the ingredients for recovery are in place and expects patience to be rewarded.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 2026 | 2026 Q2 | BLDR, CNR, HCC, PSK.TO, TDW | Coal, commodities, energy, Housing, Regional Banks, Short Selling, value |
BLDR CNR PSK.TO TDW HCC |
Black Bear underperformed in Q2 amid market concentration in mega-cap tech, but the manager sees an unusually wide gap between price and value. The portfolio owns cash-generative energy, commodity, and housing businesses at sensible valuations while shorting overleveraged businesses with unrealistic expectations. Many holdings are entering their most cash-generative phases. The manager remains invested alongside partners and expects patience to be rewarded. |
| Apr 14 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BLDR, FLG, FPH, PSK.TO, TDW | commodities, energy, Housing, Long/Short, private credit, Regional Banks, value |
FPH PSK.TO TDW BLDR FPH FLG PSK.TO TDW |
Black Bear delivered 13.2% returns in Q1 versus -4.4% for the S&P 500, validating their concentrated long/short value approach. The fund owns undervalued businesses in housing, energy, and regional banks while shorting overvalued private credit, AI wannabes, and legacy data centers. Portfolio positioned like a coiled spring for lumpy outperformance as value recognition accelerates. |
| Feb 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, PSK.TO, TDW | banks, Coal, energy, Housing, Shorts, turnaround, value |
BLDR TDW PSK CN FLG HCC LXS GR |
Black Bear Value Fund underperformed in 2025 but positions for strong recovery with holdings nearing capital cycle inflection points. Portfolio concentrates on undervalued housing, energy, and coal companies while shorting AI speculation and credit excess. Manager expects 50-100% upside potential as investment cycles conclude and shorts face valuation reality. |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | BLDR, FLG, HCC, LXS.DE, TDW | Banking, Chemicals, Coal, cyclicals, energy, Homebuilding, Shorts, value |
BLDR FLG LXS TDW HCC |
Black Bear Value Partners underperformed in Q3 due to short positions in overvalued AI companies while long positions in cyclical industries at trough levels showed modest gains. The fund targets homebuilding, chemicals, energy services, banking, and coal companies with structural tailwinds and significant upside potential when market conditions normalize. |
| Jul 10 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ABG, AN, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | catalysts, Concentration, free cash flow, Shorts, turnaround, value | - | Black Bear's concentrated value portfolio underperformed in Q2 due to short book headwinds but is positioned for strong recovery. Holdings trade at 9-35% free cash flow yields with hard catalysts expected in 6-18 months including mine reopenings, project completions, and strategic reviews. Manager views current discounts as temporary with significant upside as fundamentals improve. |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ABG, BLDR, CNR, FLG, HCC | Auto Dealers, Banking, Coal, Homebuilders, Opportunistic, tariffs, value, volatility | CNR | Black Bear outperformed during Q1 volatility by positioning defensively ahead of tariff announcements. The fund owns businesses with pricing power and fortress balance sheets including auto dealers, building materials, met coal producers, and a discounted bank turnaround. Current market stress creates opportunities for patient capital to acquire quality companies at attractive valuations. |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ABG, ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, FLG, HCC, POU.TO | banks, Coal, Concentration, energy, Foreign, Housing, Long/Short, value |
ABG FLG |
Black Bear underperformed in 2024 but manager sees compelling opportunity in concentrated value portfolio. Fund owns undervalued companies completing capital cycles in coal, housing, energy, and banking while shorting overvalued names. December selloff created buying opportunity with multiple holdings offering 50-100% upside as investment cycles conclude over next 12-24 months. |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ARCH, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU.TO | Coal, credit, energy, Hedging, Homebuilders, rates, value |
ARCH CEIX HCC BLDR POU.TO |
Value manager maintains defensive positioning with credit shorts and asymmetric hedges, betting against market expectations of returning to 2% rates. Core holdings in metallurgical coal and homebuilders positioned for structural demand growth. Expects volatility to create opportunities as companies face refinancing historically cheap debt at higher rates. |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | ARCH, BLDR, HCC, LXU, POU.TO | Buybacks, Coal, credit, cyclicals, energy, small cap, value | LXU | Black Bear Value Partners owns extremely cheap small-cap cyclicals trading at 10-25% free cash flow yields in underinvested sectors like metallurgical coal and energy. Portfolio companies have safe balance sheets and aggressive buyback programs while the fund shorts overpriced credit markets. The manager expects concentration to increase if prices decline further without fundamental changes. |
| Apr 23 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ABG, ALS.TO, AN, BLDR, CEIX, PAG | Auto Dealers, Buybacks, Coal, commodities, Concentration, energy, Homebuilders, value |
ALS.TO AN PAG |
Black Bear maintains concentrated positions in undervalued energy, auto dealer, and homebuilding companies with strong capital allocation. Key holdings like BLDR have delivered exceptional returns while management teams aggressively buy back stock. The manager sees abundant opportunities as traditional value investors have left the business, creating a clearance sale environment for patient fundamental investors. |
| Jan 30 2024 | 2023 Q4 | ABG, ALS.TO, BLDR, CEIX, POU.TO | Auto Dealers, Coal, concentrated, energy, Homebuilders, royalties, Short Selling, value |
ABG BLDR CEIX POU.TO ALS.TO |
Black Bear returned 17.7% in 2023 through concentrated value investing in companies with pricing power including auto dealers, homebuilders, and energy producers while maintaining substantial short exposure. The fund benefits from patient capital and fundamental analysis to own great businesses at attractive valuations. Manager expects opportunities to emerge in higher rate environment requiring patience and conviction. |
| Jun 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | Document is a Dropbox file viewer page containing only web interface code and metadata. No actual Black Bear Value Partners Q3 2023 fund content is accessible for analysis. The underlying investment letter appears to be a PDF file that is not readable through this HTML wrapper. |
| Oct 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | ABG, BLDR, CEIX, HCC, POU.TO | Auto Dealers, Coal, credit, energy, Homebuilders, Long/Short, value |
ABG BLDR CEIX POU.TO HCC |
Black Bear Value Partners is concentrated in undervalued energy, auto dealers, homebuilders and industrials while shorting overvalued securities and credit. The fund expects economic weakening where strong companies gain market share from the weak, positioning in cash-generative businesses like Asbury Group, Builders FirstSource, CONSOL Energy, Paramount Resources and Warrior Met. |
| Nov 4 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AAPL, ABG, BLDR, BRK-A, CVEO, POU.TO | Auto Dealers, Banking, energy, Homebuilders, Short Selling, value |
ABG BRK.A BLDR CVEO POU.TO |
Concentrated value fund maintaining conviction in energy, auto dealers, and homebuilders despite YTD underperformance. Successfully shorted Silicon Valley Bank while targeting other rate-sensitive industries. Portfolio positioned for economic weakness with strong free cash flow generators trading at attractive yields. Energy thesis driven by global supply shortages and China reopening catalyst. |
| Nov 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Metallurgical CoalManager remains constructive on metallurgical coal, expecting demand to increase over the next several decades driven by industrialization and urbanization across India and Southeast Asia. Years of ESG-driven underinvestment have constrained new supply, with industry capital spending having peaked more than a decade ago. This combination of growing demand and limited supply should support attractive long-term pricing. |
Coal Steel India Asia Commodities |
Thermal CoalManager believes thermal coal stands to benefit from growing global electricity demand following more than a decade of limited growth. Virtually every source of electricity generation will be needed to satisfy rising demand from AI, data centers, and broader electrification. Much of the developing world continues to rely on thermal coal as an essential source of baseload power, while global cement production is expected to grow meaningfully over the coming decades. |
Coal Power Electricity Data Centers AI | |
OilManager remains heavily invested across the energy and commodity complex, including oil both onshore and offshore. Years of capital underinvestment have left these industries vulnerable to unexpected increases in demand or disruptions in supply. Markets remain structurally tight, making them susceptible to significant price moves when unexpected events occur. As growth from mature onshore resource plays moderates, global energy demand will increasingly require new offshore production. |
Oil Energy Offshore Commodities | |
Natural GasManager remains heavily invested in natural gas as part of the broader energy and commodity complex. Years of capital underinvestment have left the industry vulnerable to unexpected increases in demand or disruptions in supply. The manager believes the need for natural gas will continue to grow over time, with markets remaining structurally tight. |
Natural Gas Energy Commodities | |
HomebuildersManager continues to own businesses positioned to benefit from the long-term need for additional housing. The United States continues to face a structural housing shortage, and higher mortgage rates have further constrained the supply of existing homes by locking homeowners into low-rate mortages. Even if overall housing activity remains subdued, new homebuilders are likely to continue gaining market share. |
Housing Homebuilders Construction Real Estate | |
Private CreditManager remains short a basket of companies exposed to the private credit ecosystem. While there are many thoughtful investors in the space, it has attracted enormous amounts of capital in recent years. In the manager's view, that has led some sponsors to pay excessive prices and extend credit on increasingly borrower-friendly terms. |
Credit Leverage Private Equity | |
AIManager is short AI wannabes—companies that have repositioned themselves as AI beneficiaries despite questionable business models, relying more on promotional narratives than durable competitive advantages. The manager believes we remain early in AI's economic lifecycle. Manager also notes that thermal coal stands to benefit from growing electricity demand from AI and data centers. |
Technology Valuations Electricity | |
Data CentersManager is short legacy data centers, which require significant capital investment while generating only mediocre leveraged returns on capital. The manager believes the accounting often obscures the underlying economics, leverage remains elevated, and enthusiasm surrounding AI has indiscriminately lifted valuations across the sector. |
Technology Real Estate Valuations | |
| 2026 Q1 |
HousingStructural housing shortage in the US with millennials forming households. Higher mortgage rates reduce existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales. |
Homebuilders Building Materials California Supply Shortage Mortgage |
EnergyChronic capital underinvestment in energy/commodity space left industry vulnerable to demand increases or supply reductions. Recent Iran experience brought attention to this issue requiring significant investment. |
Oil Natural Gas Underinvestment Commodities Iran | |
Metallurgical CoalSignificant underinvestment in metallurgical coal, a needed input for worldwide steel consumption particularly in Asia and India where high-grade met coal resources are limited. |
Steel Asia India Underinvestment Coal | |
Private CreditSpace has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and/or lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into the AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Credit Stress AI Data Centers LP Money Lending Standards | |
Regional BanksFlagstar has exceptional management/board ahead of the game in turning their business around. Manager is short similar companies with management teams obfuscating/ignoring issues and unhealthy balance sheets. |
Turnaround Management Balance Sheet Multifamily Office | |
| 2025 Q4 |
HousingStructural housing shortage in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply. New homebuilders capturing increasing market share as they can buy-down mortgages. Rising need as millennials form households creates long-term demand tailwinds. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Mortgage Rates Supply Shortage |
Metallurgical CoalSignificant underinvestment in coal for steel production globally, particularly needed for worldwide steel consumption in Asia and India where high-grade met coal resources are limited. Minimal worldwide resource development over the last 10 years could lead to tight supply and higher pricing. |
Steel Production Asia Supply Shortage Mining | |
EnergySignificant underinvestment in natural gas, oil and thermal coal which are necessary for world economies to function and grow. While renewables will play increasing role, the change will occur over decades not years. Lack of global investment in energy development creates opportunities. |
Oil Natural Gas Underinvestment Energy Transition | |
Regional BanksFlagstar has exceptional management ahead of the game in turning their business around. Manager contrasts this with short positions in similar companies with management teams that are obfuscating issues and have unhealthy balance sheets. |
Bank Turnaround Management Quality Balance Sheet | |
AIWhile AI will have impact on lives, still very early in lifecycle. Many businesses transforming to benefit from investor excitement with questionable business plans but intense stock promotion. Weak business fundamentals becoming more apparent should lead to stock declines. |
Valuation Business Models Hype Early Stage | |
Private CreditSpace has become very popular with lots of LP money chasing returns. Some sponsors have paid extremely high prices and lent on unfavorable terms. Many have also lent into AI/data-center space to businesses with questionable futures. |
Lending Valuations Risk Management | |
| 2025 Q3 |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. Homebuilders can buy-down mortgages to lower rates and accept healthy margins. Local governments beginning to loosen red tape for home construction which should help. |
Housing Mortgage Construction Supply |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal used for steel production currently experiencing compressed prices but Blue Creek mine development wrapping up by beginning of 2026. Combined assets should generate significant free cash flow with non-heroic pricing and volume assumptions once capital investment period concludes. |
Steel Mining Coal Infrastructure | |
Marine ServicesOffshore support vessels serving energy industry with strong long-term outlook for international and offshore markets. Global OSV market expected to shrink by 40% over next decade as fleets age, creating potential for large pricing moves and high utilization. |
Energy Offshore Shipping Oil | |
Specialty ChemicalsGerman specialty chemicals company focused on selling cyclical businesses and building stickier, lower capital-intensive operations. Management targeting investment grade credit rating and deleveraging while experiencing weak end-market conditions but positioned for normalized environment recovery. |
Chemicals Germany Deleveraging Industrial | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Auto DealersAuto dealerships generate strong free cash flow even in soft markets with over 50% of profits from parts and services. The businesses are priced as if there will be no growth despite scale advantages and consolidation runway with 90% of dealerships privately owned. |
Auto Dealers Parts Services Consolidation Free Cash Flow |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in the USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales by buying down mortgages to lower rates. |
Homebuilders Housing Shortage Mortgage Rates Building Materials | |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal demand projected to climb for next 25 years driven by economic development and urbanization in India and Southeast Asia. Severe lack of investment since 2014 due to ESG concerns while demand will likely outstrip supply leading to higher prices. |
Metallurgical Coal Steel Asia ESG Supply Demand | |
Regional BanksFlagstar Financial represents a turnaround story with new management team led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and CEO Joseph Otting. Conservative loan book marking and large credit reserves contrast with competitors who have taken minimal reserves. |
Regional Banks Turnaround Credit Reserves Real Estate | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTariffs will likely slow economic growth, decrease corporate confidence, increase prices and shake up supply chains. This creates opportunities for companies with pricing power, healthy capital structures, staying power, low cost advantages and capable management. The manager is repositioning the portfolio in anticipation of tariff announcements. |
Tariffs Supply Chain Pricing Power Economic Growth |
CoalMet coal demand is projected to climb for the next 25 years driven by economic development and urbanization in India and Southeast Asia. There has been severe lack of investment in met coal due to ESG concerns with investment peaking in 2014. Over the coming years demand will likely outstrip supply leading to higher prices. |
Metallurgical Coal Steel Asia ESG Supply Demand | |
Auto DealersAuto dealership model strength comes from parts and services where more than 50% of profits originate. Tariffs will increase automobile costs reducing affordability, but this may be mitigated by variable wage expenses and increased Parts & Service activity. Most dealers currently have 1-2 months used inventory and 2-3 months new inventory. |
Parts Service Inventory Affordability Variable Costs | |
HomebuildersThere is a structural shortage of housing in the USA. Higher mortgage rates reduce existing home supply as homeowners are locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders are capturing increasing share of home sales and can buy-down mortgages to lower rates while accepting lower but healthy margins. |
Housing Shortage Mortgage Rates Market Share Buydowns | |
Regional BanksFlagstar Financial represents a turnaround story with new management led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and CEO Joseph Otting. The bank has raised over $1B in capital, reviewed loans, sold non-core assets, and taken conservative credit reserves. Trading at 67% of conservatively marked balance sheet versus similar banks at 140-160% of tangible book value. |
Turnaround Capital Raise Credit Reserves Valuation Discount | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal demand projected to climb for next 25 years driven by economic development in India and Southeast Asia. Severe underinvestment since 2014 due to ESG concerns while 60% of world's population lives in Asia where local sources are limited. |
Met Coal Steel Asia India ESG |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in USA with higher mortgage rates reducing existing home supply as homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. New homebuilders capturing increasing share of home sales by buying down mortgages. |
Housing Mortgage Construction Supply Millennials | |
Regional BanksInvesting in bank turnarounds with proactive management teams protecting shareholders versus shorting banks with management teams obfuscating issues. Focus on conservatively marked balance sheets and healthy capital positions. |
Banks Turnaround Balance Sheet Capital Management | |
EnergySignificant underinvestment in natural gas, oil and thermal coal which are necessary for world economies to function. While renewables will play increasing role, change will occur over decades not years. |
Oil Natural Gas Thermal Coal Underinvestment Renewables | |
Auto DealersRazor-razorblade model in fragmented industry where dealers capture trade-ins and parts/services relationships. Large dealer groups transitioning to omni-channel model reducing operating costs not appreciated by market. |
Auto Dealerships Parts Services Omni-channel | |
| 2024 Q3 |
RatesManager expects rates to remain higher than the post-GFC period, with 10Y treasury likely in 4-4.5% range versus current 3.8%. Maintains short positions in long-term interest rate instruments and credit, believing market is too optimistic about return to 2% rates. |
Interest Rates Credit Treasury Fed Policy Inflation |
Credit StressMaterially increased credit shorts including junk bonds. Many companies approaching refinancing of historically cheap debt with spreads at all-time tights reflecting zero concern about corporate balance sheets and impact of higher funding costs. |
Credit Spreads Corporate Debt Refinancing Junk Bonds Balance Sheets | |
Metallurgical CoalMet coal demand projected to climb for next 25 years driven by economic development in India and Southeast Asia. Severe lack of investment since 2014 due to ESG concerns while demand will likely outstrip supply leading to higher prices. |
Met Coal Steel Asia ESG Supply Demand | |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in USA with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. Aspiring homeowners may increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders. Current mortgage rates are not unusual versus history. |
Housing Construction Mortgage Rates Supply Shortage Demographics | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Metallurgical CoalARCH and Warrior are leading US producers of high-quality metallurgical coal used for steelmaking. Met coal demand is projected to climb for the next 25 years driven by economic development and urbanization in India and Southeast Asia. There has been severe lack of investment in met coal due to ESG concerns with investment peaking in 2014. |
Steel Asia ESG Export Infrastructure |
BuybacksThe companies in the portfolio are led by management teams who understand the power of buying back stock cheaply. BLDR has been using abundant free cash flow to buy in over 41% of the stock in the last 3 years. LSB is buying back both stock and debt at discounts. |
Capital Allocation Value Management Cash Flow | |
EnergyLarge exposure to energy names including royalty companies and exploration & production companies like Paramount Resources. These companies have made massive changes to their balance sheets by running with net cash or very small amounts of debt. Most operate in industries with 8+ years of underinvestment. |
Balance Sheet Cash Flow Underinvestment Cyclical | |
Credit StressThe fund is short long-term interest rate and credit instruments, focused on Investment Grade and Emerging Market credit markets. Credit spreads are at all-time tights reflecting zero concern about corporate balance sheets and the impact of lower margins and increased funding costs. Many companies are entering a period needing to refinance historically cheap debt. |
Interest Rates Refinancing Spreads Corporate Debt | |
Building MaterialsBLDR is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials focused on residential construction. The company has shifted to 50%+ value-add business since the GFC and has modest leverage. There is a structural shortage of housing in the USA with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. |
Housing Residential Value Add Shortage | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Auto DealersAuto dealers operate a razor-razorblade model in a fragmented industry, with over 50% of profits coming from parts and services. Large dealer groups have transitioned to omni-channel models reducing operating costs. The manager expects dealers to make less per car but sell more volume as prices drop. |
Auto Dealers Parts Services Omni-channel Fragmented |
HomebuildersThe US has a structural housing shortage with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. Aspiring homeowners may increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders. While the next 6-12 months could be rocky, the housing market should eventually adjust to the new normal. |
Housing Shortage Homebuilders Mortgage Rates Residential Construction | |
CoalCONSOL Energy has shifted from domestic energy coal to export-driven coal for non-power generation purposes. The company has delevered to near-zero net debt and trades at 20-25% unlevered free cash flow. Parts of the world have limited energy alternatives and will require coal supply over coming years. |
Coal Export Deleveraging Energy Alternatives | |
BuybacksMultiple portfolio companies are aggressively buying back stock with free cash flow. AutoNation bought 62% of the company coming out of COVID, and Penske bought back 17% in the last 2 years. The manager expects CONSOL to commit large amounts of free cash flow to buying cheap stock. |
Stock Buybacks Free Cash Flow Capital Allocation | |
Building MaterialsBLDR has focused on growing their value-add business which is now 40%+ of topline, moving away from cyclical lumber products with minimal pricing power. The manager believes in their pricing power and customer stickiness, expecting the business to attract a higher multiple. |
Building Materials Value-add Pricing Power Customer Stickiness | |
Gold RoyaltiesAltius Minerals operates a unique royalty structure across potash, copper, lithium, and iron ore. They spend minimal upfront capital while utilizing third-party partners for capital-intensive drilling/mining in exchange for production royalties. The royalty structure provides pure profit upside when commodity prices rise. |
Royalties Diversified Low Capital Commodity Exposure | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Auto DealersAuto dealerships operate a razor-razorblade model with over 50% of profits from parts and services. Large dealer groups have transitioned to omni-channel models reducing operating costs. While GPU margins will normalize, volume increases should offset some pressure as used car prices drop. |
Auto Dealers Parts Services Omni-channel GPU |
HomebuildersStructural housing shortage in the USA with existing homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages. Aspiring homeowners increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders. Value-add products now represent 40%+ of topline with structurally higher margins and pricing power. |
Homebuilders Housing Shortage Value-add Pricing Power Margins | |
CoalCONSOL Energy has shifted from domestic energy coal to export-driven producer for non-power generation purposes. Parts of the world have limited energy alternatives and will require coal supply over coming years despite negative stigma. |
Coal Export Non-power Energy Alternatives Marine Terminal | |
OilLarge investment across energy and commodity spaces due to insufficient development of energy resources to satisfy near and medium-term global needs while providing for renewable future. Paramount Resources has no debt and management owns 46% of company. |
Oil Energy Resources Exploration Production Debt-free | |
Mining ServicesAltius Minerals explores and develops mineral properties through unique royalty structure using third-party partners for capital-intensive drilling in exchange for production royalties. Assets diversified across potash, copper, lithium, and iron ore with minimal fixed costs. |
Mining Royalties Potash Copper Lithium | |
| 2023 Q2 |
EnergyManager has large investments across energy and commodity spaces, believing the world hasn't developed enough energy resources to satisfy near and medium-term needs. Positions include CONSOL Energy (coal export producer) and Paramount Resources (E&P with no debt and management owning 47%). |
Coal Oil Natural Gas Exploration & Production Energy Trading |
Auto DealersAsbury Group operates auto dealerships with over 50% of profits from parts and services. Manager expects dealers to make less per car as inventories normalize but will sell more cars, especially used vehicles as prices drop. Views it as a razor-razorblade model in fragmented industry. |
Auto Dealers Auto Aftermarket Used Autos Auto Parts Auto Retail | |
HomebuildersBuilders FirstSource is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials focused on residential construction. Manager notes structural housing shortage in USA and believes aspiring homeowners may increasingly need to find homes from homebuilders as existing owners are locked into low-rate mortgages. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Retail Building Products Construction Lumber | |
Metallurgical CoalWarrior Met produces met coal for steelmaking with 97% export-driven production and large cost advantage shipping to Europe and South America in 2 weeks versus Australian competition at 5 weeks. Manager sees wide margin of safety in current valuation with new project coming online. |
Metallurgical Coal Coal Steel Mining Services Critical Minerals | |
Credit StressManager remains short credit as spreads remain tight, expecting weakening credit fundamentals to result in additional spread widening to compensate for eventual corporate defaults as profit margins compress. |
Credit Stress Corporate Finance Defaults Credit Cards Specialty Finance | |
| 2023 Q1 |
EnergyConcentrated investments in energy have been a drag on YTD performance but the manager maintains conviction. The thesis is that insufficient energy resources have been developed to satisfy near and medium-term global needs. Paramount Resources joins Civeo in the top 5 holdings, with energy being a main investment theme. |
Oil Natural Gas Exploration & Production Energy Trading |
Auto DealersAsbury Group operates auto dealerships with over 50% of profits from parts and services. While expecting lower margins on car sales as inventories normalize, the manager sees this as a razor-razorblade model in a fragmented industry with strong free cash flow generation potential. |
Auto Dealers Auto Aftermarket Auto Parts | |
HomebuildersBuilders FirstSource is positioned for the structural housing shortage in the USA. While acknowledging near-term challenges from higher mortgage rates, the manager believes the housing market will adjust to the new normal and sees attractive free cash flow yields. |
Homebuilders Building Materials Construction | |
Credit StressThe short book targets industries that relied on low-cost funding during the low rate environment. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse exemplifies this theme, with the manager expecting bills to come due for real estate development, data centers, and financial service providers as rates remain elevated. |
Credit Stress Regional Banks Real Estate |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Automotive Group Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Retail, Dealerships, Free Cash Flow, Omni Channel, Parts and Services, Razor Razorblade Model, share repurchases | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, residential construction, share repurchases, Value-added products | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | coal, deleveraging, energy, Export-driven, Free Cash Flow, Non-power Generation, share repurchases | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources Ltd | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | Canada, debt-free, Energy Prices, Exploration & Production, Free Cash Flow, management ownership, Oil & Gas | Login |
| Jul 10, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | HCC | Warrior Met Coal Inc | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Development Project, Export-driven, Logistics Advantage, metallurgical coal, NOLs, Steelmaking, Sum-of-Parts Valuation | Login |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Other | Building Products | Bull | - | Building Products, Cyclical, Distributor, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Housing, Manufacturer, market share gains, residential construction, Value | Login |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CNR | Core Natural Resources | Other | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | - | Asia, coal, Commodities, Cyclical, energy, Equity, Export Terminal, Free Cash Flow, India, metallurgical coal, Thermal Coal, Value | Login |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PSK.TO | PrairieSky Royalty | Other | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | - | asset-light, Canada, defensive, energy, Equity, Free Cash Flow, mineral rights, Oil & Gas, Royalty, Value | Login |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | TDW | Tidewater | Other | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | - | Cyclical, energy, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Offshore services, Oil & Gas Services, Supply Constrained, Utilization Recovery, Value, Vessel Operator | Login |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Other | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | - | coal, energy, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Growth Optionality, Low-cost producer, metallurgical coal, Project Completion, Steel Production, Value | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FPH | Five Point Holdings | Real Estate - Development | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | California, Equity, Housing shortage, Land Monetization, Master-Planned Communities, NAV discount, real estate development | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PSK.TO | PrairieSky Royalty | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asset-light model, Canada, Commodity Exposure, dividend yield, Energy Underinvestment, Equity, Oil & Gas Royalties | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | TDW | Tidewater | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brazil, Equity, Fleet Undersupply, Free Cash Flow, Marine services, Offshore energy, Offshore support vessels | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Building Products & Equipment | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, residential construction, Value-added products | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FPH | Five Point Holdings | Real Estate - Development | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | California, Equity, Housing shortage, Land Monetization, Master-Planned Communities, NAV discount, real estate development | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Banks - Regional | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Balance sheet repair, Banking Crisis, Equity, Management Change, regional bank, tangible book value, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PSK.TO | PrairieSky Royalty | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asset-light model, Canada, Commodity Exposure, dividend yield, Energy Underinvestment, Equity, Oil & Gas Royalties | Login |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | TDW | Tidewater | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Brazil, Equity, Fleet Undersupply, Free Cash Flow, Marine services, Offshore energy, Offshore support vessels | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, Margins, Value Added | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Capital Scarcity, Free Cash Flow, Offshore energy, Supply Contraction | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | PSK CN | PrairieSky Royalty | Energy | Oil & Gas Royalties | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital-light, Energy Scarcity, inflation hedge, mineral rights, royalties | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Bank Turnaround, Management Quality, recapitalization, tangible book, valuation gap | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Materials | Metallurgical Coal | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Capital Cycle, Free Cash Flow, metallurgical coal, Steel Demand, Supply Constraint | Login |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS GR | Lanxess | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bear | Xetra | asset monetization, Balance Sheet Risk, debt burden, execution risk, specialty chemicals | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | BLDR | Builders FirstSource Inc. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Building materials, buybacks, cash flow, construction, growth, Housing, leverage | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | FLG | Flagstar Financial Corp. | Financials | Banks | Bull | NYSE | banking, Credit, management, recovery, regional banks, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | LXS | Lanxess AG | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | - | Chemicals, deleveraging, Free Cash Flow, Germany, restructuring, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | TDW | Tidewater Inc. | Energy | Oilfield Services | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, energy, leverage, Marine, Offshore, Oilfield, Supply, valuation | Login |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Adam Schwartz | HCC | Warrior Met Coal Inc. | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Capital-projects, cash flow, coal, energy, Mining, Steel, turnaround | Login |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CNR | Core Natural Resources | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Asian Demand, ESG Underinvestment, Export Dependent, Fortress Balance Sheet, Low-cost producer, metallurgical coal, Steel Production, supply constraints | Login |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto Dealerships, consolidation, Equity, Fragmented Industry, Omni Channel, Parts & Service, recurring revenue, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | FLG | Flagstar Financial | Financials | Regional Banks | Bull | NYSE | Balance sheet repair, Conservative Reserves, Equity, Joseph Otting, regional bank, Steven Mnuchin, tangible book value, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ARCH | ARCH Resources | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Asia, consolidation, ESG, India, merger, metallurgical coal, Southeast Asia, Steelmaking, Supply Constraint, urbanization | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CEIX | CONSOL Energy | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | ARCH Resources, consolidation, ESG, merger, Supply Constraint, synergies, Thermal Coal, Underinvestment | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | HCC | Warrior Met Coal | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | Asia, consolidation, ESG, High quality, India, metallurgical coal, Southeast Asia, Steelmaking, Supply Constraint, urbanization | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Free Cash Flow, Homebuilders, Housing shortage, Pricing power, residential construction, Share Buybacks, Structural Transformation, Value-Add Products | Login |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | balance sheet strength, Canada, defensive, energy, Exploration & Production, Free Cash Flow, Growth Reinvestment, Management alignment, net cash | Login |
| Jul 9, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | LXU | LSB Industries | Materials | Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | Bull | NYSE | Agricultural, Ammonia, capacity expansion, carbon capture, Cost advantage, debt reduction, Free Cash Flow, Industrial, Low-Carbon, natural gas, Nitrogen, Share Buybacks, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ALS.TO | Altius Minerals | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asset-light, Canada, Commodities, Copper, Iron ore, Lithium, Mining, Potash, Royalty, Value | Login |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | AN | AutoNation | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automotive Retail, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Omni Channel, Parts, Razor-razorblade, Service, Share Buybacks, US | Login |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | PAG | Penske Automotive | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Automotive Retail, Hidden Asset, Logistics, Parts, Service, Share Buybacks, Truck Dealerships, Truck Rental, UK, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Group | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | NYSE | Automotive Retail, Cyclical, Dealerships, free cash flow yield, Omni Channel, Parts and Service, Razor Razorblade Model, Share Buybacks, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BRK.A | Berkshire Hathaway | Financials | Multi-Sector Holdings | Bull | NYSE | Apple Hedge, capital allocation, cash position, conglomerate, investment portfolio, Operating Businesses, Sum-of-Parts Valuation, Value | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Cyclical, free cash flow yield, Housing shortage, residential construction, Share Buybacks, transformation, Value-added products | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CVEO | Civeo | Real Estate | Specialized REITs | Bull | NYSE | Cyclical Recovery, Energy Sector, free cash flow yield, International, Mining, Remote Locations, Specialized Services, Workforce Housing | Login |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | TSX | Canada, cash position, China Reopening, debt-free, Energy Development, free cash flow yield, management ownership, Oil & Gas E&P | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ABG | Asbury Group | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NYSE | Auto Dealerships, Free Cash Flow, Omni Channel, Parts and Services, Razor Razorblade Model, Share Buybacks, Specialty retail | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | BLDR | Builders FirstSource | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NASDAQ | Building materials, Free Cash Flow, Housing shortage, Pricing power, residential construction, Share Buybacks, Value-Add Products | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | CEIX | CONSOL Energy | Energy | Coal & Consumable Fuels | Bull | NYSE | coal, commodity, energy, Export Markets, Free Cash Flow, Marine Terminal, metallurgical coal, Share Buybacks | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | POU.TO | Paramount Resources | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Bull | TSX | Canada, debt-free, energy, exploration and production, Free Cash Flow, Management alignment, oil and gas | Login |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Black Bear Value Partners | ALS.TO | Altius Minerals | Materials | Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | asset-light, Copper, Diversified Commodities, Iron ore, Lithium, Management alignment, Mining, Potash, Royalty | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BLDR | BLDR appreciated approximately 9% during the second quarter but remains down roughly 13% year-to-date amid continued weakness in the housing market. New home demand has softened as affordability challenges continue to weigh on buyers. We expect 2026 free cash flow to be approximately $500–800 million, representing a 5–9% free-cash-flow yield. While housing activity remains near cyclical lows, we believe BLDR should be able to sustain this level of cash generation. As a reminder, BLDR is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials focused primarily on residential construction. Historically, the business was highly cyclical, with limited pricing power because much of its revenue came from commodity products such as lumber. Since the Global Financial Crisis, however, the company has transformed its business, growing its higher-value-added operations to more than 40% of revenue. That shift has improved margins, increased returns on capital, and made the business meaningfully more resilient across the housing cycle. Housing affordability is unlikely to improve materially in the near term absent a significant decline in mortgage rates, which we do not expect. That said, we believe the underlying fundamentals continue to improve. As new housing supply remains constrained, rental rates should continue to rise, making homeownership relatively more attractive. At the same time, as higher mortgage rates become more normalized and wages continue to increase, both actual affordability and consumers' willingness to finance homes at today's rates should gradually improve. Our long-term investment thesis remains unchanged. The United States continues to face a structural housing shortage, and higher mortgage rates have further constrained the supply of existing homes by locking homeowners into low-rate mortgages. As a result, even if overall housing activity remains subdued, we believe new homebuilders are likely to continue gaining market share, an important benefit for BLDR given its significant exposure to new residential construction. We have reduced our near-term cash flow estimates to reflect a slower housing recovery. Even so, we continue to estimate normalized free cash flow of approximately $9–12 per share, implying a normalized free-cash-flow yield of roughly 10–13% before assigning any value to future growth. Combined with favorable long-term industry dynamics and BLDR's increasingly advantaged competitive position, we continue to believe the shares offer an attractive risk-reward. |
| CNR | CNR declined approximately 23% during the second quarter and is down roughly 9% year-to-date, including dividends. Core is one of the world's leading producers of both metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking, and thermal coal, used in power generation. Thermal coal stands to benefit from growing global electricity demand following more than a decade of limited growth. While headlines often focus on renewable energy, we believe virtually every source of electricity generation will be needed to satisfy rising demand from AI, data centers, and broader electrification. Much of the developing world continues to rely on thermal coal as an essential source of baseload power, while global cement production, which also depends on coal as a key feedstock—is expected to grow meaningfully over the coming decades. We also remain constructive on metallurgical coal. Demand is expected to increase over the next several decades, driven by industrialization and urbanization across India and Southeast Asia. At the same time, years of ESG-driven underinvestment have constrained new supply, with industry capital spending having peaked more than a decade ago. We believe this combination of growing demand and limited supply should support attractive long-term pricing. Core offers multiple sources of value. The company owns a marine export terminal that we estimate is worth approximately $500–800 million, or roughly $11–17 per share. The operating coal business has the potential to generate approximately $6–18 of free cash flow per share across the commodity cycle, which we estimate is worth approximately $54–190 per share. Taken together, we believe Core's intrinsic value is approximately $65–207 per share versus a quarter-end share price of $80. Coal earnings will always fluctuate with commodity prices, and there is inevitably a wide range of outcomes in any given year. At today's valuation, however, we believe the market is discounting an overly pessimistic scenario while assigning little value to the company's long-lived assets and favorable long-term industry fundamentals. In our view, that creates an attractive asymmetric opportunity. |
| PSK.TO | PSK,TO declined approximately 1% during the second quarter and is up roughly 20% year-to-date, including dividends. PrairieSky is a pure-play oil and natural gas royalty company that owns one of Canada's largest portfolios of subsurface mineral rights and royalty interests across Western Canada. Importantly, the company does not drill or operate oil and gas wells itself. Instead, it leases its lands to third-party producers and collects high-margin royalty income based on production, without incurring the operating costs or capital expenditures required to develop those resources. Businesses with this combination of asset-light economics, minimal capital requirements, and long-duration cash flows typically deserve premium valuations. Yet, likely because it is both an energy company and Canadian, PrairieSky can currently be purchased at an implied free-cash-flow yield of approximately 5–8%, assuming stable production and commodity prices. Just as importantly, the company is led by an exceptional management team and Board with a demonstrated history of disciplined capital allocation. In a world where years of underinvestment have constrained future energy supply, we believe PrairieSky offers an attractive combination of current income, downside resilience, and long-term optionality. We are paid an attractive yield while owning a business that should benefit if energy prices rise or additional production is required to meet future demand. |
| TDW | TDW declined approximately 20% during the second quarter but remains up roughly 32% year-to-date. Tidewater is the world's largest owner and operator of offshore support vessels (OSVs), providing essential marine services to the offshore energy industry. Its vessels transport personnel and equipment, tow and anchor drilling rigs, and support offshore construction and production activities. While the near-term outlook has become somewhat less certain, we remain constructive on the long-term fundamentals. As growth from mature onshore resource plays such as the Permian moderates, global energy demand will increasingly require new offshore production. We believe offshore capital spending is likely to recover over the next one to two years as producers commit capital to replacing depleted reserves. The more compelling part of the investment case, however, is on the supply side. Following the Global Financial Crisis, global shipyard capacity has declined by nearly 60%, while financing for new vessel construction has become increasingly scarce as many traditional lenders have exited the market. As a result, very few new offshore support vessels are being built. With the global fleet continuing to age, we expect the effective supply of OSVs to decline materially over the coming decade. This combination of constrained supply and recovering demand creates the potential for meaningful increases in vessel utilization and day rates. Tidewater generated approximately $350 million of free cash flow in 2025, representing a trailing free-cash-flow yield of roughly 8%. Under more normalized industry conditions, we believe annual free cash flow could reasonably increase to approximately $500 million to $1 billion, implying a free-cash-flow yield of roughly 15–30% at today's valuation. |
| HCC | HCC declined approximately 13% during the second quarter and is down roughly 8% year-to-date. Warrior Met Coal is a leading producer of premium metallurgical coal, which is used in steel production. Years of limited global investment in new metallurgical coal capacity have constrained future supply, which should provide a favorable backdrop when steel demand improves. Importantly, our investment thesis does not depend on a significant recovery in coal prices. The company recently completed its Blue Creek development project, which had consumed the majority of its free cash flow over the past several years. With construction now largely complete, Blue Creek positions Warrior as one of the lowest-cost producers in the industry while allowing substantially more cash flow to accrue to shareholders. Assuming a lower-for-longer metallurgical coal price environment, we estimate the business can generate approximately $300–700 million of annual free cash flow, or roughly $6–13 per share. At a quarter-end share price of approximately $81, that represents an unlevered free-cash-flow yield of roughly 7–16%. We also believe the market is assigning little value to the company's embedded growth opportunities. Blue Creek has the potential to support higher production over time, and a recent lease transaction with the Bureau of Land Management provides additional resource optionality. Together, we estimate these opportunities could add approximately $3–30 per share of incremental value. If realized, we believe we own the business at an effective unlevered free-cash-flow yield of approximately 8–25%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||